CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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1719898179468

1720046161339

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prob-desc

0

lnOIrJmh4o43lQ2HUSMv

when-will-the-us-supreme-court-issu

14284.377556438129

When will the US Supreme Court issue an order/opinion/decision on the Trump immunity case?

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APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

8496aefc3b71

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1716770790284

JRP

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1719846469557

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is-duncan-sabien-a-large-language-m

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Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?

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fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

cpmm-1

0

6.128358706959945

True

basic

NO

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1716770976404

Caleb

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klob

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Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?

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JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923062

True

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NO

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1716772703712

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1716993850064

1000

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will-the-reform-party-win-a-nonzero

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Will the Reform Party win a nonzero number of seats in the 2024 election?

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9.28322054330603

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1716773637686

Lexer

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1720191983830

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Who will win the John Calipari revenge game? (Arkansas Razorbacks @ Kentucky Wildcats, 2024-2025 season)

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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1716777010686

David Glidden

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MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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dglid

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0

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Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

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9.650107063685246

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1716777168757

AdamK

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In his paper \"The Vulnerable World Hypothesis,\" Nick Bostrom introduces the term \"semi-anarchic default condition\" to describe the current state of human affairs where people can, roughly, do what they want and as a population want a wide varie...

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1000

AdamK

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0.13333333333333333

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0.3100000000000001

will-ross-ulbricht-be-pardoned-or-h

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Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025?

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9.442195801738126

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1716783511071

Manifold Politics

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Will "Notifications Received in 30 Minutes of Class" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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9.83624975447183

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1716784930151

Less Wrong

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1000

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Should the US Electoral College be abolished?

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none

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1000000

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Alon Ragoler

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POLL

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AlonRagoler

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will-a-random-number-between-1-and-3d1974acc7b7

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Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?

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9.753036855030011

True

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NO

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1716790170748

themightysalmon

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1000

themightysalmon

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0.13333333333333333

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will-nvidia-stock-close-the-month-o

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Will Nvidia stock close the month of May higher than its start of May opening price?

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9.849721441922988

True

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YES

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1716794425142

RiskOptimization

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1717368042579

1000

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