CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.5000000000000001

TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO

{"NO": 464.9853808296353, "YES": 2150.605247450541}

0.17777452472957372

will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4

3645.2903656063927

Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain?

1780088340000

nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2

cpmm-1

0

9.663699646719913

False

basic

public

1716909640801

Gaz Downright

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today, May 28, 2024, Ireland, Norway, and Spain officially recognized the State of Palestine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Germany do the same within two years?", "type": "text"}]}, {"...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 64.2783784754718, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GazDownright

1717291842002

0

https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1

34

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…43451799947d.jpg

1697568039966

0

[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1716909641085}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1716909706322}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "create...

["germany", "palestine", "israel", "geopolitics"]

0.25

0.5

1717291842002

1716919976649

0

0.5000000000000001

l7StdSwaNTwpNIvWJa5E

{"NO": 452.5696378552521, "YES": 2209.604702469759}

0.17000000000000012

will-we-find-out-by-2026-that-opena

3829.195452428541

Will we find out by 2026 that OpenAI abandoned an attempt to train GPT-5?

1767254340000

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

cpmm-1

0

9.649836359832113

False

basic

public

1716910465513

Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today, OpenAI revealed in a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "press release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 88.92458880389951, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SaviorofPlant

1717555857373

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c

48

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7a93407e7935.jpg

1698371327350

0

[{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1716910465884}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1716910465876}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO...

["gpt5-speculation", "technical-ai-timelines", "openai", "ai"]

0.25

0.5

1717555854249

1716968583439

0

9seqI5tGsNsmDCl3B6Wb

caleb-williams-202425-nfl-regular-s

600

Caleb Williams 2024/25 NFL Regular Season Passing Yards

1738385940000

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716911790639

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 10.230595958959961, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

10thOfficial

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

7

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "46f028f14185", "prob": 0.541617887760013, "text": "Over 3500.5", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 543.5039104751912, "userId": "sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 459.9782911983508, "textFts": "'3500.5':2", "contractId": "9seqI5tGsNsmDCl3B6Wb", "createdTime": 1716911790640, "p...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…333c0dae655b.jpg

1682437068858

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716911790942}, {"name": "🏈 NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1716911790945}, {"name": "NFL Futures", "slug": "nfl-futures", "groupId": "470aae8a-05a8-4fee-8127-7e3fbd4db7c8", "creat...

["sports-default", "nfl", "nfl-futures", "football", "sports-betting"]

0.25

1717308035256

True

0

0.5000000000000001

2yv1umA9tbj6PYUEFoC1

{"NO": 856.7216728192693, "YES": 1167.2402271664669}

0.4232894269528034

will-luffy-return-shanks-hat

612.830382052914

Will luffy return shanks hat ?

1735714740000

eTPrw8R09wa59gMDkWnWLVK2HQq1

cpmm-1

0

9.57404977368023

False

basic

public

1716914292956

Estevan Alfaro

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Curious ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.016612784162846894}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.00790401900709, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

EstevanAlfaro

1718960278125

0

https://storage.googleap…kWnWLVK2HQq1.png

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a25d6270080b.jpg

1716913931012

0

[{"name": "one piece stocks", "slug": "one-piece-stocks-a199b0b82462", "groupId": "60485de8-e184-456b-816f-964b01fddfb6", "createdTime": 1716914293218}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1716914293242}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", ...

["one-piece-stocks-a199b0b82462", "movies", "one-piece-theories", "manga", "one-piece-stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1718960275074

0

0.5000000000000001

6AGqcTyTnZ3d76ZONdgf

{"NO": 422.06727616110857, "YES": 2369.2905289778637}

0.15120500689093685

will-the-uk-introduce-rationing-due

4498.033992477814

Will the UK introduce rationing due to food shortages by 2030?

1893542340000

S6gj4X5LNBcydu2Ovb17KO4Ca1z1

cpmm-1

0

9.689582528170341

False

basic

public

1716914704234

Joe Salmon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.02908682947715374}

0

{"creatorFee": 66.20109901996766, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JoeSalmon

1719216863415

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIeJpuffFc-a4NkNaprVxwBXuspsf8Fl2K-djdPvaSVl9-pxIC9=s96-c

27

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a45be13cbf27.jpg

1716913699904

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1716914704484}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1716914704497}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime":...

["science-default", "world-default", "climate", "uk-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1719216860187

0

aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf

which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo

1982.579183932141

Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

1735707540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716915598206

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market must be made in 2024 and resolved by the end of the year for it to be eligible ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by poll at market close", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 39.159760407751506, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2200

strutheo

1719740877010

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

26

2

ANYONE

[{"id": "5d4149187a1b", "prob": 0.023723044419661235, "text": "CoolFold Immolation https://manifold.markets/strutheo/coolfold-self-immolation-how-many-u", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.362260567381696, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2319.482069120323, "textFts": "'/strutheo/coolfold-s...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…96bcb0acb6fb.jpg

1700846926650

0

[{"name": "Meta-markets", "slug": "metamarkets", "groupId": "0112083b-1b7d-4e2a-80e8-929ba3f099a5", "createdTime": 1716915598669}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716915598671}, {"name": "Manifold Users", "slug": "manifold-users", "groupId": "u...

["metamarkets", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-business-future", "awards-shows"]

0.25

1719740872811

1719270200378

True

prob-desc

0

xosnvOmMgs4cPSBIQPfc

which-of-the-following-is-your-favo

0

Which of the following is your favorite of an assorted candy variety pack?

j4HC6TgsW4UUvIYi3re1XbsZX8P2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1716916924523

Knuffa

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

Knuffa

1716916924796

0

https://firebasestorage.…167-73b05fea9219

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b4da08c4f2c3.jpg

1713920950880

0

[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1716916924784}, {"name": "🍝 Food", "slug": "food", "groupId": "F6DkK24HpilV3Et7xJv7", "createdTime": 1716916924796}]

["personal", "food"]

0.25

0

35FSqOfL34OUFJcZuDvO

release-of-an-operating-system-or-a

0

Release of an Operating System or app that integrates with the OS, that can essentially voice-control the OS before 2026

1719521940000

WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716917409904

Iason Koukas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It should be able to follow relatively low level instructions, like 'go to Chrome', 'go to line X of the document', 'write this' etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719521940206

IasonKoukas

1719343923792

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJIJyDLPEuPXNOzTrfsptZ48FfaLCZm5IfcjrS0XnYKx8=s96-c

12

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e8934ebc9eae.jpg

1702729254788

0

[{"name": "Microsoft", "slug": "microsoft", "groupId": "bKtvk7DIpkrzESy6I3ZK", "createdTime": 1716917410303}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716917410313}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716917410331}]

["microsoft", "openai", "ai"]

0.25

1719343922578

["b42b1f049a02"]

0

0.20527956844924253

1alNazfiL0X88a60FODl

{"NO": 4196.487446292228, "YES": 32079.76204361376}

0.03268540554979682

will-trump-have-a-cell-mate-before

40072.060534111806

Will Trump have a cell mate before he has a running mate?

1727582340000

fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52

cpmm-1

0

6.0991497794033585

False

basic

public

1716918565511

Zac Parker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Trump is sentenced to any time in jail (and share space with another prisoner) before he formally announces a running mate. Resolves no if his running mate is announced beforehand. Resolves 50% if his cell mate is his running mate a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.023302935069014423, "month": -0.03731491448082755}

0

{"creatorFee": 234.91993577781864, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

6862

ZacParker

1720088512443

0

https://firebasestorage.…4d0-dbaec72eff5e

98

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7003d5be0a4c.jpg

1648110702205

0

[{"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1716918566098}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716918566126}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "g...

["magaland", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "trump-vp", "trump-indictments"]

0.25

0.5

1720088508970

1717128238044

0

fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH

how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi

20380.59420288822

How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July?

1719871140000

51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1716923319304

Victor Levoso

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Abhayesian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/users/abhayesian?from=post_header", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline activ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 278.09410039050204, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719890345057

3050

VictorLevoso

1719951458525

0

https://firebasestorage.…1b8-eaf45666b429

15

3

DISABLED

[{"id": "731d0362dc43", "prob": 0.02, "text": "[0,10]", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.46509251042659, "userId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1662.2988221455628, "textFts": "'0':1 '10':2", "contractId": "fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…965f97d66ea6.jpg

1645642518862

0

[{"name": "Mechanistic interpretability", "slug": "mechanistic-interpretability", "groupId": "JwFENl9sVYNaFAvdAEJC", "createdTime": 1716923319775}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716923319771}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3...

["mechanistic-interpretability", "ai", "technology-default"]

0.25

1719871132830

1719951456859

0.02

51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872

False

0

ayX7EmMttvFwGGGrtMjL

which-countries-will-graduate-from

2688.3925175071067

Which countries will graduate from least developed country (LDC) status before 2030?

1893484740000

GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716925152605

cshunter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since 1971, the United Nations (UN) has categorized and triennially reviewed \"least developed countries\" (LDCs) according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "three criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://unct...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 81.01609602352245, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

3500

cash

1717453907399

0

https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e

15

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "33747638f6cb", "prob": 0.46137252810824697, "text": "Angola", "index": 0, "poolNo": 320.4013982539883, "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 374.0513026203383, "textFts": "'angola':1", "contractId": "ayX7EmMttvFwGGGrtMjL", "createdTime": 1716925152605, "probChanges": {"day": 0,...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…66fcbf8467f1.jpg

1669744545591

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716925153059}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1716925153068}, {"name": "United Nations", "slug": "united-nations", "groupId": "41b22946-b798-4...

["politics-default", "economics-default", "united-nations", "world-default", "global-macro"]

0.25

1717453904232

False

0

0.5

X1jsDMYlieDEZSAgsUEt

{"NO": 2380.476142847617, "YES": 420.0840252084032}

0.85

20240820-will-msft-close-above-405

1980.264956365068

2024-08-20: Will MSFT close above $405?

1724212740000

TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1

cpmm-1

0

9.680152972007694

False

basic

public

1716925312477

MRN

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.1193079786111857, "month": 0.1629889778456306}

0

{"creatorFee": 39.064625060813526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MRN267

1719870044601

0

https://firebasestorage.…80e-1f0131ad4aeb

6

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e8365ff0f351.jpg

1704225270314

0

[{"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1716925312896}, {"name": "Microsoft", "slug": "microsoft", "groupId": "bKtvk7DIpkrzESy6I3ZK", "createdTime": 1716925312915}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716925...

["tech-stocks", "microsoft", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1719870041494

0

ctTs6oWqIdXwqK0AfZOK

how-many-of-the-current-prize-marke

0

How many of the current Prize Markets do you find interesting?

1718139540000

nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716926425501

Gaz Downright

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718139540279

GazDownright

1717061654957

0

https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1

29

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…fdbc72a6291f.jpg

1697568039966

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716926425777}, {"name": "Prize Points", "slug": "prize-points", "groupId": "beeb5983-89ed-4af0-91d4-4df78b4e99b4", "createdTime": 1716926425787}, {"name": "Pivot", "slug": "pivot", "groupId": "825a042c-ac2e-4dd9...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "prize-points", "pivot", "sweepstakes"]

0.25

1717061653265

["b194e7ba062c"]

0

927CUz1RTDLN6sBvAHyZ

which-company-will-win-nasas-cp22-t

2407.752031989281

Which company will win NASA's CP-22 Task Order?

1735714740000

TYDDLncUQgO8L3hSiMFoTxAOBdw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716926530627

Charlie Garcia

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CP-22 is a call for landers to provide payload services to the Lunar South Pole to payloads selected under NASA's second PRISM program. There are 14 eligible companies to bid through a previously established IDIQ contract mechanism. The list of com...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.935995906398848, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

3500

CharlieGarcia

1720019169592

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIardMSMu8g7SZSK4MSzSPwE1z0sXdCrcDFwbBFKqEKgtB-0Mgc=s96-c

5

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "9702af39c048", "prob": 0.10656707532094986, "text": "Astrobotic", "index": 0, "poolNo": 167.6281374511044, "userId": "TYDDLncUQgO8L3hSiMFoTxAOBdw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1405.3542958779133, "textFts": "'astrobot':1", "contractId": "927CUz1RTDLN6sBvAHyZ", "createdTime": 1716926530628, "probChanges": {"d...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…600c6c7ce7dc.jpg

1716750087989

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1716926530990}, {"name": "NASA", "slug": "nasa", "groupId": "c6d9ce56-6640-455b-96db-3c3293d41f0f", "createdTime": 1716926530988}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": ...

["science-default", "nasa", "space", "moon", "moon-landers"]

0.25

1720019165787

True

0

0.49999999999999994

OQG4kkO3Ox7FkTT3isPV

{"NO": 1042.2117994987932, "YES": 959.4978683612176}

1

game-4-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da

59.93687807347271

(Game 4) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on May 29 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)

1717029000000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

9.570598732541328

True

basic

YES

public

1716927455629

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stars lead the series ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decorati...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9314335310086943, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717039602953

1000

KeenenW

1717029000000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

5

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e60c9e5f2070.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1716927456709}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716927456712}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1716927456711}, {...

["hockey", "sports-default", "nhl", "culture-default", "sports-betting"]

0.25

0.5

1717022548921

0.52

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

UAWTDJ6rhTJtgFVLgTF2

in-what-chapter-will-vegapunks-vide-fc5b562bea9e

340

In what chapter will Vegapunk's video message stop?

1718131665499

akuRTZ6pj3SxUospnIK19NjxZ443

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

21fa0d69a443

public

1716927867732

Astaroth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vegapunk’s video message refers to the one he started broadcasting after he’s impaled. Stopping includes being interrupted and having played through the full message. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.2824495649218, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718306927550

1000

Astaroth

1718131665499

0

https://storage.googleap…nIK19NjxZ443.png

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "21fa0d69a443", "prob": 0.35309977165783113, "text": "1117", "index": 0, "poolNo": 261.20715720093625, "userId": "akuRTZ6pj3SxUospnIK19NjxZ443", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 478.5473772598145, "textFts": "'1117':1", "contractId": "UAWTDJ6rhTJtgFVLgTF2", "resolverId": "akuRTZ6pj3SxUospnIK19NjxZ443", "createdTime...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…4de731968f01.jpg

1716427525662

0

[{"name": "🏴‍☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1716927868059}, {"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1716927868074}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58l...

["one-piece-stocks", "manga", "entertainment"]

0.25

1718130743306

{"21fa0d69a443": 100}

akuRTZ6pj3SxUospnIK19NjxZ443

True

0

0.5000000000000008

mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V

{"NO": 682.3097381866646, "YES": 1465.6100360778169}

1

will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo

7407.241563994178

Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost)

1717483431163

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

0

9.593166572255313

True

basic

YES

public

1716928111858

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We are already planning to add market tiers for 1k, 10k, 100k, 1M markets. Will we add 100 mana as a tier? (Or any amount less than 1k?)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think this could unlo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.6823392817730767}

0

{"creatorFee": 204.7560709030516, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717486743756

1000

JamesGrugett

1717596499318

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

59

0

1

0.13333333333333333

1639087027342

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716928112122}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1716928112154}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1717441134582

1717596497383

0.32

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

0

0.13999999999999999

SEKcyuQGYzqSN44RTpNd

{"NO": 1011.0277042939881, "YES": 934.8484780660409}

0.14970052586382956

will-openai-fallout-make-the-top-fi

70

Will "OpenAI: Fallout" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

9.887534124660583

False

basic

public

1716928393270

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6077571063418992, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LessWrong

1717076145233

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…664d00155eec.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716928393547}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015767590}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9...

["lesswrong-annual-review", "ai", "openai"]

0.25

0.14

1717076141756

0

0.5

7tDPVYltSwO7TmeX5BbD

{"NO": 969.6184287787468, "YES": 1031.3335331915248}

0.48457856420700646

will-the-icc-pretrial-chamber-grant

160

Will the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber grant both of the arrest warrants proposed against Netanyahu and Gallant?

1735707540000

39JynuLHvzcNh6ZvioKEGQyAsGq2

cpmm-1

0

9.570481117691715

False

basic

public

1716929542352

Chad

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will be extended as necessary until both warrants are granted or at least one warrant is rejected in a final ruling by the Pre-Trial Chamber. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.377843102913703, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ChadCotty

1716967481838

0

https://storage.googleap…ioKEGQyAsGq2.png

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…4fdbfc5ed199.jpg

1690394230510

0

[{"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1716929542614}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1716929542620}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflic...

["middle-east", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel"]

0.25

0.5

1716967478381

0

gKFNQHJs7pKpweDrA0Dx

if-trump-is-convicted-of-interferin

652.0967192537752

Having been convicted of interfering with the 2016 election, how much jail time will Trump be sentenced to?

1727409540000

NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716933056664

Stephen S Power

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1-2 years means 365 days plus no more than 364 days. Extrapolate for the other choices. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Choice 7 is for those who think he'll skate. IMHO the ice has cracked o...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 21.266834993621988, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1750

StephenSPower

1720048262802

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJJakJRZZPV9UKwEj40oeDYqeV9_xpZkUTwTi2oosBE=s96-c

12

2

DISABLED

[{"id": "ba2f0441de7b", "prob": 0.5164016623189759, "text": "None", "index": 0, "poolNo": 369.13382588956773, "userId": "NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 345.68537943970875, "textFts": "'none':1", "contractId": "gKFNQHJs7pKpweDrA0Dx", "createdTime": 1716933056664, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…249dcb47275d.jpg

1696858950851

0

[{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1716933056985}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1716933056990}, {"name": "🐘 Republican Party", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3B...

["trump-indictments", "donald-trump", "magaland"]

0.25

1719355547202

1720048240099

True

0

vcmWtbZWrVRT0dXH0QAe

are-prize-points-a-good-addition-to

0

Are prize points a good addition to Manifold?

1717563540000

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716933719505

Plasma Ballin'

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Do you think the new currency, Prize Points (aka Spice), that was added in the pivot is a good Manifold feature?", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717563540294

PlasmaBallin

1717456407593

0

https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5

50

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…05355035dc54.jpg

1668786016313

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716933719789}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1716933719796}, {"name": "Prize Points", "slug": "prize-points", "groupId"...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "prize-points", "pivot", "spice"]

0.25

1717456406523

["828200985ea0"]

0

tVqEu4AsFdy5BD5fQtsZ

have-you-tried-modafinil

0

Have you tried Modafinil?

D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1716933896695

singer

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://gwern.net/modafinil", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gwern.net/modafinil", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-pr...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

singer

1716934843404

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c3-c1ee5bc5b4ae

16

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0907b610bfb6.jpg

1695522783407

0

[{"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1716933896931}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1716933896940}, {"name": "Nootropics", "slug": "nootropics", "groupId": "1be8d91c-4558-4753-8064-9c6b4f5185b8", ...

["drugs", "health", "nootropics"]

0.25

0

0.5

7O1KYeSxnkQIMAK8f7kd

{"NO": 1745.3900312728847, "YES": 572.937843165471}

0.7528659127629769

will-ohio-billionaire-larry-connor

1259.717895323979

Will Ohio billionaire Larry Connor go to 'Titanic-level depths' and go back to the surface alive by EOY 2030 ?

1925420340000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-1

0

9.619154139129753

False

basic

public

1716936706924

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://eu.cincinnati.com/story/news/2024/05/28/ohio-billionaire-to-take-20-million-submersible-on-titanic-journey/73874942007/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://eu.cincinnati.com/story/news/2024/05/28/ohio-bil...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.542788962477186, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Mich

1717080408011

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…86d33b63290c.jpg

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1716936707207}, {"name": "Titanic sub", "slug": "titanic-sub", "groupId": "QUYtclU7QgfWm0a3jVmB", "createdTime": 1716936707219}, {"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "...

["science-default", "titanic-sub", "death-markets", "technology-default", "united-states"]

0.25

0.5

1717080404515

0

kR4jSY5JZdpypOcNgv5X

when-will-joint-sword-2024b-occur

575

When will Joint Sword 2024B occur?

1735775940000

rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716939711788

draaglom

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China recently conducted an exercise it named \"Joint Sword 2024A\" around Taiwan.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on the naming scheme, media in China and Taiwan expect further Joint Sw...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 15.495184654459484, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2000

draaglom

1717725476946

0

https://firebasestorage.…a3e-1dbfa72b78a4

2

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "17f7cf1ca575", "prob": 0.2, "text": "before July 1st", "index": 0, "poolNo": 126.43482012378435, "userId": "rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 494.32585057510437, "textFts": "'1st':3 'juli':2", "contractId": "kR4jSY5JZdpypOcNgv5X", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36B...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a203500467e9.jpg

1680650651402

0

[{"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1716939712135}, {"name": "South China Sea", "slug": "south-china-sea", "groupId": "364b2d83-e4cf-4d9e-adab-e760ce55f39a", "createdTime": 1716939712131}, {"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potentia...

["taiwan", "south-china-sea", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "china"]

0.25

1717725473855

False

0

2zwnbjEX55TK5oVRDR3c

do-you-identify-as-ea-or-eacc

0

Do you identify as EA or E/acc?

1719557940000

8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716940065648

Manifold AI

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-prima...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719557940163

ManifoldAI

1719756722414

0

https://firebasestorage.…924-001fe00f6330

293

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…6b2eb9dd6887.jpg

1711068181629

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716940065919}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716940065932}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 17169...

["ai", "technology-default", "ai-safety", "ai-alignment"]

0.25

1719756721054

["7b9034b6fb11", "8e30224bce2e"]

0

5UzdJIyhO0QyrfJrsQGM

what-will-be-true-of-david-lynchs-m

5642.2658062448945

What will be true of David Lynch's mysterious June 5th announcement? [ADD RESPONSES]

1717570740000

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1716940289895

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The legendary director David Lynch just posted ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this 22 second video tweet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/DAVID_LYNCH/status/1795137899735691746", "class": "break-anywhere ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 131.46717547703545, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717625678111

2000

Ziddletwix

1717625706189

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

24

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ecf6f77c8f44", "prob": 0.12, "text": "Announcement of a new feature (full length) film", "index": 0, "poolNo": 94.29397299898349, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 662.8207298113714, "textFts": "'announc':1 'featur':5 'film':8 'full':6 'length':7 'new':4", "contractId": "5U...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…c01707b82231.jpg

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716940290438}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716940290435}, {"name": "🧑‍🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4Q...

["culture-default", "entertainment", "celebrities", "movies", "david-lynch"]

0.25

1717562275487

1717625704815

0.67

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

False

prob-desc

0

0.5000000000000004

GoyvW7tV96yNTqeYvr1M

{"NO": 1123.7188918002369, "YES": 889.9022765364136}

0.5580587398812878

ai-generated-philosophy-book-worth

2055

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

1925009940000

pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2

cpmm-1

0

9.57266376131906

False

basic

public

1716940808581

mario pasquato

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030. Due to this aim, it is very specific.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.022035897963783913}

0

{"creatorFee": 67.28554382007003, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

mariopasquato

1718853981754

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtemzqYFS4zuvOtBu7Ko52uxERLtlEzFHTvhCP-noDEfACs=s96-c

25

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7e88fcb4e6c1.jpg

1691028732594

0

[{"name": "🧠 Philosophy", "slug": "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "groupId": "fxiwfHfrTmac3tKJyehm", "createdTime": 1716940808841}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716940808840}, {"name": "📖 Academia", "slug": "-academia", "groupId": "96982729-5728-43e0-a698-6231f2f6c989"...

["philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "ai", "-academia", "ai-safety", "technical-ai-timelines"]

0.25

0.5

1718853978568

1717037787784

0

KLRJOMOUQxrkGV7nVm8t

how-many-additional-joint-sword-exe

230

How many additional Joint Sword exercises will China conduct in 2024?

1735775940000

rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716940965547

draaglom

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China conducted one Joint Sword exercise in 2023:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.axios.com/2023/04/08/china-taiwan-military-drills-tsai-mccarthy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.6525101886824336, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

draaglom

1717119274800

0

https://firebasestorage.…a3e-1dbfa72b78a4

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "bcba5c02f4f9", "prob": 0.22957934222300275, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 157.58389145193604, "userId": "rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 528.8188568356966, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "KLRJOMOUQxrkGV7nVm8t", "createdTime": 1716940965547, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…7b7478f0826b.jpg

1680650651402

0

[{"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "groupId": "2b786f84-e655-456c-b6f9-4022ee9873a3", "createdTime": 1716940965928}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1716940965927}, {"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "g...

["china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "china", "taiwan", "south-china-sea"]

0.25

1717119271360

True

0

0.5000000000000002

o2vVhIqIu02XLZMTtwES

{"NO": 356.0209256793943, "YES": 2808.823661394908}

0

will-at-least-193-people-10-of-my-f

2536.716899097697

Will at least 19.3 people (10% of my follower count) bet on any new personal market that I make in June?

1719817140000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

9.743500723303338

True

basic

NO

public

1716943797932

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With The Pivot and all, my Manifold market activity has been feeling a bit more anemic lately. And this is for me, someone who is lucky enough to be an enfranchised user with many more followers than the average Manifolder, but idk.", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.2811101892220014, "month": -0.5791830656554061}

0

{"creatorFee": 53.7874933768329, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719855390109

1000

Conflux

1719856151888

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

16

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/gi6emwyrml.jpg

1640740518271

0

[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1716943890382}]

["personal"]

0.25

0.5

1719790182183

1719856148891

0.11

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

0

0.5000000000000004

PEAh4AsufK9Xdy8kKker

{"NO": 942.6396006295013, "YES": 1060.850827115892}

0.4704986794922158

will-australia-announce-the-establi

2035.253601342021

Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?

1735718340000

ioRiytaYL0XoWxzR9qCQfmJiyZk2

cpmm-1

0

9.571468309809365

False

basic

public

1716945344391

Ryan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Australia signed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/global-leaders-agree-to-launch-first-international-network-of-ai-safety-institutes-to-boost-understanding-of-ai", "class": "break-an...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.04772475887288086, "month": -0.07240797806278432}

0

{"creatorFee": 58.41533283449935, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ryannn

1719705821544

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp78IvvtirtxY_EItV8oLcmfhj2ZlagTF4t7yrhnoB0=s96-c

16

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/n3le0je0dv.jpg

1670631736212

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716945344650}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1716945344656}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime"...

["politics-default", "ai-alignment", "ai", "australia", "ai-safety"]

0.25

0.5

1719705818360

1716955645137

0

0.49999999999999994

2WP2XUlxLOkyxchNiQCG

{"NO": 1193.5350882388789, "YES": 837.8471733709571}

0.5875482477104149

will-i-receive-significant-evidence

1041.410440918412

Will I receive significant evidence that Paul Christiano is not legally bound by a mutual OpenAI NDA before EOY2024

1735718340000

hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2

cpmm-1

0

9.575273750148053

False

basic

public

1716951055388

Garrett Baker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Significant evidence = first, second, or third-hand reports from people who I trust.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NDA = non-disparagement agreement, not non-disclosure agreement", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 34.41022986050751, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GarrettBaker

1717598307027

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c

11

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/4flfftjekg.jpg

1644448539248

0

[{"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1716951055648}]

["ai-regulation"]

0.25

0.5

1717598303731

1717124348737

0

0.5000000000000002

ZmtUP0icyht9KmKS50vt

{"NO": 229.02818056216756, "YES": 4366.274916673668}

0.04983962444173327

biden-pardons-trump-before-november

5084.1140050986705

Will Biden pardon Trump before November 5th, 2024 AND win the 2024 election?

1733029140000

bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2

cpmm-1

0

9.902672642771988

False

basic

public

1716951320817

Eric Bolton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Markets resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden wins (as per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres", "type": "tex...

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.0022324977308384453, "month": -0.1988475727302161}

0

{"creatorFee": 55.611078227662155, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

EricBolton

1720056757726

0

https://firebasestorage.…cef-e6d468df0f51

9

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/vgkuu45ngv.jpg

1691454991515

0

0.25

0.5

1720056754512

1717005333364

0

0.5000000000000002

zdhAODow9Td6IsZadjoj

{"NO": 974.6039242429471, "YES": 1026.0578427044409}

0.48714077528956795

biden-does-not-pardon-trump-before

37

Will Biden lose the 2024 election AND NOT pardon Trump before November 5th, 2024?

1733029140000

bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2

cpmm-1

0

9.570436070367645

False

basic

public

1716951331454

Eric Bolton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Markets resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden loses (as per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres", "type": "te...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2398591393540934, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

EricBolton

1717134589266

0

https://firebasestorage.…cef-e6d468df0f51

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/6bmyjdz8od.jpg

1691454991515

0

0.25

0.5

1717134585658

1717001318744

0

0.5

D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO

{"NO": 577.3502691896282, "YES": 1732.0508075688829}

0.25000000000000017

will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab

19182.595491076663

Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?

1725260340000

7ZUzSoFRd0SABh2p63Gp2Gcnr1u1

cpmm-1

0

9.566402268072121

False

basic

public

1716954826560

Michael Lo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I receive an offer for a full-time job doing software engineering, ML engineering, and/or research engineering by September 1, 2024. Resolves NO if I do not receive an offer for a full-time job doing software engineering, ML enginee...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.03527139873799112}

0

{"creatorFee": 372.9257520845465, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

lomichael

1719065428345

0

https://firebasestorage.…667-f380aa8a874f

66

0

0.13333333333333333

https://firebasestorage.…937-1bce921e4fad

1716446293039

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716954826819}, {"name": "Careers", "slug": "careers", "groupId": "vKBZ7Wc2di6zZbDko0Wg", "createdTime": 1716954826822}, {"name": "Jobs", "slug": "jobs", "groupId": "d5cd7d99-573a-41ea-a067-13acc4577e04", "createdTime": 1716954826820}, {...

["ai", "careers", "jobs", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1719065425297

1717809095670

0

0.5000000000000001

5MsvTPOrBi0MOsea7KOp

{"NO": 861.9576026986913, "YES": 1160.1498691688707}

0

game-5-new-york-rangers-beat-florid

172

(Game 5) New York Rangers beat Florida Panthers on May 30 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)

1717113600000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

9.573762401048997

True

basic

NO

public

1716955317681

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.4058450645583935, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717124291066

1000

KeenenW

1717113600000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

8

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…W/9nx60th6og.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716955318191}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716955318196}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1...

["culture-default", "sports-default", "hockey", "nhl", "sports-betting"]

0.25

0.5

1717106180873

0.43

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5000000000000001

Jd9ceHIuRScf0JQsfuTf

{"NO": 1582.479031760632, "YES": 631.9199053698816}

0.7146314086527052

will-bridgerton-season-3-enter-the

985

Will "Bridgerton: Season 3" enter the all time Netflix Top 10?

1726469940000

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

9.385868124276708

False

basic

public

1716955973612

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Most Popular TV (English) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/most-popular/tv", "class": "break-anywhere hover:under...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 28.58082388706776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ziddletwix

1717372075745

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

10

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/7nkcfq2qtu.jpg

1680369520541

0

[{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1716955973885}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716955973888}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupI...

["television-film", "entertainment", "culture-default", "tv"]

0.25

0.5

1717372072638

0

0.4999999999999997

xdwIrS1AIPJ5YFOMwGAo

{"NO": 1427.5797848998593, "YES": 700.4862429248744}

0.6708343473529823

will-manifold-demote-any-prize-mark

3112.3732824509516

Will manifold demote any Prize Market to regular market ? (2024)

1735649940000

HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3

cpmm-1

0

9.541748652396517

False

basic

public

1716959760896

Odoacre

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 84.16996741853987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Odoacre

1717056034910

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a

14

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/koq86oapc7.jpg

1660254401272

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716959761651}, {"name": "Prize Points", "slug": "prize-points", "groupId": "beeb5983-89ed-4af0-91d4-4df78b4e99b4", "createdTime": 1716959761655}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "prize-points"]

0.25

0.5

1717056031470

1716983650401

0

0.500000000000001

n5OfGUXhVB6dA1XQ6ehY

{"NO": 1723.1600539853907, "YES": 580.3291445197809}

0.7480651765606808

will-nvidia-stock-crash-before-the

7375.538142099754

Will Nvidia stock crash before the S&P500?

1924984740000

XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2

cpmm-1

0

9.499092416521108

False

basic

public

1716960195867

Dark Speculator

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A crash here means 20% drop from all time highs to end of day price.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if it happens to Nvidia stock first, NO if it happens to the S&P 500 first, and 50% if both ha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.010700199900643304, "month": -0.02263131018714415}

0

{"creatorFee": 141.40554263356654, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

0482

1720031564069

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteS8SwkT3ywrOgne_djZRPozlXiVaKvKDJhqwdJd3Ox=s96-c

51

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…2/3efwn2ai0r.jpg

1691595630760

0

[{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1716960196098}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716960196112}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 171696019610...

["nvidia", "ai", "stocks", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"]

0.25

0.5

1720031560897

0

0.5000000000000004

4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI

{"NO": 376.24724754575993, "YES": 2657.8267522830893}

0

will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0

3995.663574650973

Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1?

1717225140000

xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42

cpmm-1

0

9.7247858994766

True

basic

NO

public

1716960975415

themightysalmon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market has a 10% chance to resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When the market closes, I’ll ask the FairlyRandom bot in the comments for a random number between 1 and 10, eg “@Fairly...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 53.99171179164509, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717226576486

1000

themightysalmon

1717226648046

0

https://firebasestorage.…270-0cf2a6f9e513

20

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/rxp1qezd6v.jpg

1707978226998

0

[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1716960975656}]

["fairlyrandom"]

0.25

0.5

1717220672214

1717226646952

0.12

xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42

0

0.49999999999999983

OutR0IOJ3BG5UPjhTwNL

{"NO": 601.8255490897427, "YES": 1661.6110790120083}

0.2658901696728608

will-nvda-stock-fall-below-92-usd-a

1248.7399617042765

Will NVDA stock fall below 92 usd (after stock split) at any moment in 2024?

1735685940000

GzFn7mDYAoO0ke6vpLVgmPr2im02

cpmm-1

0

9.610819679613254

False

basic

public

1716963484073

Anto

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.17446317756066698}

0

{"creatorFee": 30.92857674981332, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Anto

1719255892949

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ad-2b81b12ba6eb

11

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…o/p9p852712w.jpg

1689783142950

0

[{"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1716963484327}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716963484332}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1...

["gpu", "ai", "technology-default", "nvidia"]

0.25

0.5

1719255889869

0

BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG

conditional-on-trumpbiden-winning-t

3036.614403063505

Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?

1767567540000

WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716966978356

Mich

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There should be no N/A resolution !", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Due to the pivot, I can’t make real conditional markets so these are about joint probabilities. Each option will resolve YES if and only if both st...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 88.67954920531625, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Mich

1717698062318

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c

19

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "ps1wr7mg2c", "prob": 0.21030278926345694, "text": "Trump wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026", "index": 0, "poolNo": 129.01262832736157, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 484.4486994049156, "textFts": "'2026':10 'larg':6 'riot':8 'scale':7 'trump':1 'win':2", ...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…h/mvjzh5dgtc.jpg

1702591853953

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716966978656}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716966978666}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-defa...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"]

0.25

1717618886817

1717698060896

False

0

0.49999999999999917

7LhCUzA4f15Gur94Yh0Q

{"NO": 9949.874371066255, "YES": 100.50378152592151}

1

will-anthropic-release-a-new-model

14780.96051170946

Will Anthropic Release a major new model this year (e.g. Claude 3.5/4 family)

1718899487212

LchNpQLwE3fvH61huzQAOWjsyUn1

cpmm-1

0

9.84972144192306

True

basic

YES

public

1716967729831

Diego Akel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2878692365433586}

0

{"creatorFee": 123.75312608132334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718899487212

1000

DiegoAkel

1718899487212

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLC0UNh6vr2wORhYWuQqZcrQgpvvxWy6ErN5j5Sw0ZABbERTWByw=s96-c

27

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…l/ev58aarkyn.jpg

1716795136208

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716967730086}, {"name": "Anthropic", "slug": "anthropic", "groupId": "B8jfqGL9Uqu5nejktmVi", "createdTime": 1716967730089}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 17169...

["ai", "anthropic", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718895495358

1717777200936

0.99

LchNpQLwE3fvH61huzQAOWjsyUn1

0

0.5000000000000006

YmoNVKh5M2R49ofiDYGP

{"NO": 2876.9301469618767, "YES": 347.59272867852854}

1

will-i-find-more-than-10-bugs-withi

3162

Will I find more than 10 bugs within the next week?

1717732821865

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

cpmm-1

0

9.75198394117525

True

basic

YES

public

1716968630322

Caleb

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't have to video record them. My memory is very good. I promise to estimate to the best of my ability, and list out in general what th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.060443209917446894}

0

{"creatorFee": 48.28636333147684, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717732821865

1000

klob

1717795766170

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b/x0bq5sn8r6.jpg

1678278607093

0

[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1716968630563}]

["bugs"]

0.25

0.5

1717671296029

1717795765020

0.89

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

0

0.49999999999999994

EZ6kVa8KWVuC2UXJwmmS

{"NO": 1058.0265471525854, "YES": 945.1558684337842}

0.5281728408358062

am-i-annoying-people-because-of-tel

60

Am I annoying people because of [Telegram & Manifold] to Discord bridges unknowingly?

1717657140000

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

cpmm-1

0

9.57082732006171

False

basic

public

1716969798968

Caleb

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nearly kicked out of EthSecurity telegram group. And removed from Less Online | Summer Camp | Manifest maybe. See my other poll about that. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I really suspect th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004582682292291085}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9734528474147301, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

klob

1717656463020

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c

2

0

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b/3iw6zo91od.jpg

1678278607093

0

0.25

0.5

1717656459907

0

0.5000000000000003

SKubnWX7m2BczOLM3P2q

{"NO": 36695.06272246713, "YES": 9326.867829291168}

1

did-manifold-actually-find-the-thie

52317.86944604896

Did Manifold actually find the thief of that one painting?

1718379510135

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

cpmm-1

0

1.8879933932421145

True

plus

YES

public

1716970100815

Caleb

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Did Manifold actually find the thief of that one painting?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.16079699960132954}

0

{"creatorFee": 965.067831483896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718379510135

18500

klob

1718379510135

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c

9

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b/m3uzpn4ofm.jpg

1678278607093

0

0.25

0.5

1718194335107

1717004391603

0.8

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0

hor1BPJRBS04leGM8Dfw

is-manifolds-big-pivot-outside-its

0

Is Manifold's Big Pivot outside its current scope?

1717628340000

PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716970353142

Noit

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold's Big Pivot: Prize Points, devaluing Mana, jacking up question costs, potentially moving to cash prizes, everything else that has been part of The Big Pivot.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717628340414

Noit

1717010699653

0

https://firebasestorage.…735-191267a06d3d

27

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/2ccr8b3t4u.jpg

1714464978295

0

[{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1716970353421}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716970353427}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future"...

["pivot-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"]

0.25

["pnjhvrgoim"]

0

0.49565099820154535

zcqfBbd46c0bZ1VC9eNa

{"NO": 1210.6542035272548, "YES": 10307.903917906777}

0

is-the-20000000th-block-of-ethereum

8733.385584077716

Is the 20,000,000th block of Ethereum actually within 12 hours of June 1, GMT-0?

1717138740000

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

cpmm-1

0

5.770873720343911

True

basic

NO

public

1716970459212

Caleb

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would spin up a blockchain node to check, and in fact have one in front of me, but it's hard to walk around my house looking for a power cord, because I just threw out my back. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10347960149819957}

0

{"creatorFee": 143.4338239928845, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717305589869

3500

klob

1717138740000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c

10

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b/owe60urmvt.jpg

1678278607093

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716970459481}]

["technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717137734599

1717222156184

0.1

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

0

HxinYXD1JfSABt5qumsF

why-does-practical-engineering-yt-c

0

Why does Practical Engineering YT Channel Say "The Map is Not the Territory" @ 61s in his video about Bridges?

1717657140000

fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716971431991

Caleb

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717657140614

klob

1716971431991

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…b/fo95kq6f6v.jpg

1678278607093

0

0.25

["pxfc00cxj1"]

0

0.4999999999999998

ri3JWGzlcTjUmMLOs4XT

{"NO": 296.13406965667184, "YES": 3376.8488751036675}

0

uk-general-election-2024-will-the-l-f9oz2y28df

3100

UK General Election 2024 - Will the Labour manifesto include major electoral reform?

1718313113477

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

9.814614021201173

True

basic

NO

public

1716972552775

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Labour Party manifesto is likely to be published in early to mid-June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it include any serious electoral reform? Any of the following would count as maj...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17360225947621785}

0

{"creatorFee": 48.15747876681695, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718313113477

1000

SimonGrayson

1718313199709

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

29

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/lue75lxuw7.jpg

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716972553024}, {"name": "Voting reform", "slug": "voting-reform", "groupId": "4c0def48-7389-4cbb-a124-7c42cefae485", "createdTime": 1716972553022}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d4...

["uk", "voting-reform", "labour-party-uk", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk-politics"]

0.25

0.5

1718308704311

1718313198337

0.08

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

0

0.5000000000000004

ttOlxazkn6jAxTHmCT0c

{"NO": 316.56171373883694, "YES": 3158.941705834317}

0

will-i-get-1-million-likes-on-my-ti

2389.3275718024847

Will I get 1 million likes on my tiktok account before June 14th 2024?

1718319540000

SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3

cpmm-1

0

9.787274547794786

True

basic

NO

public

1716973568602

Fidel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The account is _", "type": "text"}, {"text": "thenerds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "_ on tiktok.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tiktok.com/@_thenerd...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15999999999999995}

0

{"creatorFee": 38.97410837751418, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718319593356

1000

Fidell

1718319540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…991-2254da353060

18

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…l/yoj6xqyc84.jpg

1715799485120

0

[{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1716973568887}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716973568902}]

["tiktok", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1718317588294

1718312645818

0.09

SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3

0

0.5000000000000002

I1bJla3XBQSeytB7dCGB

{"NO": 113.43319287933264, "YES": 8815.761723852505}

0

uk-general-election-2024-will-there

11666.950965070562

UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is below 10 points?

1720087200000

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

9.856527859646235

True

basic

NO

public

1716976383524

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the...

BINARY

{"day": -0.01270363049940568, "week": -0.2608371477481924, "month": -0.22000000000000042}

0

{"creatorFee": 138.09269196823962, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720175556606

1000

SimonGrayson

1720087200000

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

45

8

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/xu49rooezo.jpg

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716976383846}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1716976383850}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "b...

["uk", "labour-party-uk", "uk-conservative-party", "uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024"]

0.25

0.5

1720086019281

1717584235686

0.01

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

0

0.5000000000000002

zyMxfC8icLZpe8Iya7wG

{"NO": 112.92928928260562, "YES": 8855.098675928937}

0

uk-general-election-2024-will-there-yk246fcxcw

9466.438578280893

UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is at least 30 points?

1720087200000

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

cpmm-1

0

9.856271981028812

True

basic

NO

public

1716976488205

Simon Grayson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the...

BINARY

{"day": -0.012592432775709112, "week": -0.3719836687852877, "month": -0.44370457339801417}

0

{"creatorFee": 83.77808061674567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720175548753

1000

SimonGrayson

1720087200000

0

https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696

22

7

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/db5rgis82d.jpg

1680512856506

0

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716976489168}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1716976489166}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", ...

["uk-politics", "uk-conservative-party", "labour-party-uk", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk"]

0.25

0.5

1720085995921

0.01

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

0

0.5000000000000001

Qiiyu3NZPsL56Pq2XPCm

{"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066206}

0

will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-wsibqqnctj

9303.244510171478

Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 29 than it closed on May 28?

1717012976929

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923073

True

basic

NO

public

1716982405172

Jim Fix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 57.04501814152813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717012976929

1000

JimFix

1717012976929

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/64dqpgdcym.jpg

1696775041650

0

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1716982405428}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716982405423}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1...

["economics-default", "stocks", "finance"]

0.25

0.5

1717012833226

0.01

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

0

pp2aIi3oUHSB4SrjiMhi

am-i-doing-this-for-the-sharing-que

0

am i doing this for the sharing quest

1717007340000

1TXXdiUEj9gXzjoApheJtshIWD02

none

0

1000000

True

public

1716983647310

Andrew

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717007341242

Andrew2a12

1716983647310

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfb-e5hQc3TDFO8py8RAiv5-W1wReCY6UertyALq0kY=s96-c

4

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…2/jqwpidx8vm.jpg

1690907244755

0

0.25

["n9x6mfxb3t"]

0

0.49999999999999983

fyFmigpdF4L6tF5WX1AK

{"NO": 975.0000000000009, "YES": 1733.3333333333348}

0.3599999999999999

am-i-a-native-english-speaker

808.1194872991786

Am I a native English speaker?

1719615540000

M7EdfE9HkWUwiKA8k71JoFOEK0O2

cpmm-1

0

8.640046823824175

False

basic

public

1716983779971

Lexer

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Read my tweets ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.com/LexerLux", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline act...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1245608099960202}

0

{"creatorFee": 25.386419096389783, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1300

Lexer

1719612416663

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIQC4RAMX-tRlYW2iezY6IODewj13oOqJubj3-yYSiq=s96-c

10

4

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/6xbeme4ect.jpg

1703620232556

0

[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1716983780215}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717001170382}]

["personal", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

0.5

False

1719612413556

0

0.49999999999999867

jhzjsb29e1HMjyDCndwA

{"NO": 80.00971457871356, "YES": 12498.482281376597}

0

will-gpt5-be-released-on-6th-of-jun

65658.67571108328

Will GPT-5 be released on 6th of June?

1717754340000

KRnu3iY3AwOSYCE6RQvkyT07SIS2

cpmm-1

0

9.837730749899382

True

basic

NO

public

1716983904726

Hans Peter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is some speculation that GPT-5 will be released on 6th of June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See here ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/countdowntogpt?s=21", "type": "text",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.018978184387463178}

0

{"creatorFee": 600.0810071541289, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717755149116

1000

HansPeter

1717754340000

0

https://storage.googleap…RQvkyT07SIS2.png

102

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/y902479vcu.jpg

1682840718988

0

[{"name": "GPT-5", "slug": "gpt5", "groupId": "3eb479df-003d-47a2-8ba4-a41e637176da", "createdTime": 1716983904964}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716983904967}, {"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "cre...

["gpt5", "openai", "gpt5-speculation", "technology-default", "gpt4-speculation"]

0.25

0.5

1717749724854

1717739702840

0.01

KRnu3iY3AwOSYCE6RQvkyT07SIS2

0

xd5e50oYa75THNrWTcTj

how-many-seats-will-czech-pirate-pa

18834.492344608167

How many seats will Czech Pirate Party gain in European Elections 2024?

1717970340000

b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

uisjz045uz

public

1716984669059

Irigi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves to the number of seats the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Czech Pirate Party", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Pirate_Party", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 63.182931958755944, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717998178558

1250

Irigi

1717970340000

0

https://firebasestorage.…0e5-d6f92e1b59f0

11

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "uisjz045uz", "prob": 0.9974468684622496, "text": "1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6176.725654200491, "userId": "b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.810358993941918, "textFts": "'1':1", "contractId": "xd5e50oYa75THNrWTcTj", "resolverId": "b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2", "createdTime": 171698...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…i/fob3if1etf.jpg

1678092865133

0

[{"name": "Czechia", "slug": "czechia", "groupId": "LIafK4fgGt8k95dE8g1Y", "createdTime": 1716984669407}, {"name": "2024 European Parliament elections (EP2024)", "slug": "ep2024", "groupId": "b9a09c80-9aab-476c-8968-8c959608b10f", "createdTime": 1716984669412}, {"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "grou...

["czechia", "ep2024", "central-europe", "european-elections", "politics-default"]

0.25

1717968426565

{"uisjz045uz": 100}

b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2

True

0

0.5000000000000001

kiWfLUzDJ1p18xyVfT4H

{"NO": 851.5009178997482, "YES": 1174.3968549869912}

0.42030793917425996

will-the-price-of-the-icp-crypto-to

276.9338504074887

Will the price of the ICP crypto token reach over $30 before 2025?

1735689540000

cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2

cpmm-1

0

9.574349723701893

False

basic

public

1716985881828

Marcio Díaz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently trading at $12", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/internet-computer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coinge...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.0206946071536267, "month": -0.042488822508247204}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.669294605520047, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MarcioDiaz

1719684367026

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8qKgUrkN6oCvkfCCXqfvEH2cDiFhofvodtqTjiww=s96-c

4

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…z/6m9fru4514.jpg

1664313722110

0

[{"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1716985882081}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716985882093}]

["crypto-prices", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1719684363891

0

rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG

-what-will-be-the-jewish-proportion-5tzgbr9rtj

1246.8647164461222

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035?

2082758340000

DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716988023322

Antoine Dusséaux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question considers the combined population of Israel and the Palestinian territories, including any territories annexed by these states. It will be resolved using data from the CIA World Factbook as available on 31 December 2035.", "type": "te...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 44.27494549041896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1500

adssx

1717596904273

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c

10

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "ph5u3wv5ze", "prob": 0.28741510351503163, "text": "More than 60% Jewish", "index": 0, "poolNo": 213.01625632345446, "userId": "DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 528.1287068963154, "textFts": "'60':3 'jewish':4", "contractId": "rzZr4Wa1SD5k0BZGvaSG", "createdTime": 1716988023322, "prob...

0.13333333333333333

https://firebasestorage.…1f8-0fffc7276f0d

1664698473109

0

[{"name": "Demographics", "slug": "demographics", "groupId": "o07IBKsPqPBxuYxDFGqT", "createdTime": 1716988023634}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1716988023636}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq"...

["demographics", "palestine", "religion", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel"]

0.25

1717596901048

1717137786203

True

0

zV8ne3PjikV6usd6mDAT

will-openai-report-an-incident-toda-zpsicwv24d

105418.88111581637

Will OpenAI report an incident today? June 2024

1719838944949

e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1716988567040

Walter Jr

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since I couldn't find any for June 2024...", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://status.openai.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1286.4793611198388, "platformFee": 286.47936111983887, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719838944949

7500

WalterJr

1719838944949

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKghitIn1qsZ01-R13d8NjmK1jaPP2HsRiylWatcB05Tz0=s96-c

31

3

DISABLED

[{"id": "c695czi5sn", "prob": 0.01, "text": "June 01", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.12594538148028, "userId": "e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2487.4685927665496, "textFts": "'01':2 'june':1", "contractId": "zV8ne3PjikV6usd6mDAT", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952",...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/p33p2sj6hx.jpg

1700272458496

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716988567397}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716988567400}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1716988567433}...

["ai", "openai", "ai-regulation", "service-outage"]

0.25

1719806651271

1718105859187

0.02

e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952

False

0

0.5000000000000002

0VVtTS1mW3wEWi3iPRLJ

{"NO": 897.4970697277585, "YES": 1114.2097659475742}

0.44613710795811257

will-us-debt-interest-payments-exce

578.9256758586096

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

1861919940000

Zz3GS8J8MXR3U84VxvFkUGl4ukJ3

cpmm-1

0

9.562566476627552

False

basic

public

1716989977650

Fedor Shabashev

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predicts whether the interest payments on the U.S. national debt will exceed 20% of the federal budget revenue by the year 2029."...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.07369754591721894}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.431920347449356, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

FedorShabashev

1719435597101

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcYKCCQDvOqTk_mzeu6UCiSOSvacJ8IeBwTnVn0_9vBP8w=s96-c

5

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…v/qd7fapjphq.jpg

1690873877043

0

[{"name": "Inflation", "slug": "inflation", "groupId": "OiDJ9KX5mar9H1asXCUa", "createdTime": 1716989977913}, {"name": "Debt Ceiling", "slug": "debt-ceiling", "groupId": "PGyXr2ANRAUIxl7iqN7u", "createdTime": 1716989977911}]

["inflation", "debt-ceiling"]

0.25

0.5

1719435594039

1716992729576

0

0.5000000000000001

TCjm3GA2U8TgA4UnHPiw

{"NO": 599.020426841451, "YES": 1669.392152906799}

0.26407031603921494

will-openai-announce-any-more-corpo

883

Will OpenAI announce any more corporate ChatGPT reseller agreements before Sept 1st 2024, after deal with PwC?

1725249540000

iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122

cpmm-1

0

9.611576630963288

False

basic

public

1716993000879

Niko

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 29th, OpenAI announced a partnership with PwC to be a ChatGPT corporate reseller, targeting ~100,000 corporate customers.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://x.com/Techmeme/status/1795744582409617703", "type": "text",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 22.327685657916227, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Moscow25

1717100914560

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5/zjph8ehejb.jpg

1715368331856

0

[{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716993001136}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1716993001140}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1716993...

["openai", "ai-regulation", "chatgpt"]

0.25

0.5

1717100911151

0

znPLeMR4a3YVSeiAXdEt

eu4-which-china-will-collapse-first

1015

[EU4] Which China will collapse first?

1719611940000

BmyV8CvJyActtCWcN3jBL2rCox82

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1716994636443

Sebastian Worms

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This refer to nations in our weekly EU4 game, not real countries.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 11.88309129054284, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SebastianWorms

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…268-8087b4ef94b8

3

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "8ez1rtruy1", "prob": 0.792727481351404, "text": "Ming", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 977.8249152495135, "userId": "BmyV8CvJyActtCWcN3jBL2rCox82", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 255.66949266802735, "textFts": "'ming':1", "contractId": "znPLeMR4a3YVSeiAXdEt", "createdTime": 1716994636443, "probChanges...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/tom7oxf9dm.jpg

1662406960641

0

[{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1716994636802}]

["gaming"]

0.25

1717020928724

True

0

0.5000000000000002

FwoTFhCia9NMoILbfqBK

{"NO": 223.19015426932805, "YES": 4480.484380118651}

0

will-codestral-reach-top-20-on-lmsy

3549.6363135504475

Will Codestral reach top 20 on LMSYS by the end of June 2024?

1719772140000

Oa8lKJXI9AZWPV2welD0bq6wzng1

cpmm-1

0

9.9007444574667

True

basic

NO

public

1716995220168

axr

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.0799999999999999, "month": -0.49710956891479596}

0

{"creatorFee": 40.204565010744126, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719846651623

1000

axr

1719772140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI-2-ukKvOv8h_zn7h7V3spENiHQksstxKF5yUaDgdedHU=s96-c

9

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/juxbt7hcjl.jpg

1707468645117

0

[{"name": "Mistral", "slug": "mistral", "groupId": "7a7936dd-81e7-463d-8300-ca0f54b8bc39", "createdTime": 1716995220436}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716995220452}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716995220...

["mistral", "ai", "openai", "gpt4-speculation"]

0.25

0.5

1719772116486

1719846606257

0.05

Oa8lKJXI9AZWPV2welD0bq6wzng1

0

uf2vhub2JbvE3LuuJqZg

season-13-leagues-bayesian-vs-shank

14407.799452108373

Season 13 Leagues: @Bayesian vs @shankypanky [Short Fuse!]

1717267462579

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

nbadj4qlfq

public

1716995795510

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My friends are fighting! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the person between ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "label": "Bayes...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 64.11632193986978, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717267462579

1000

Joshua

1720053161621

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f

16

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "nbadj4qlfq", "prob": 0.9907048735497047, "text": "@Bayesian", "color": "#795548", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5161.958431491122, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48.43123076599113, "textFts": "'bayesian':1", "contractId": "uf2vhub2JbvE3LuuJqZg", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajs...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a/k3ug0kucuj.jpg

1645516283433

0

[{"name": "Manifold Leagues", "slug": "manifold-leagues", "groupId": "quyvUYBABGdermzFJ0Zl", "createdTime": 1716995795912}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716995795923}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac...

["manifold-leagues", "manifold-6748e065087e", "nonpredictive"]

0.25

False

1717267335613

1717267096319

{"nbadj4qlfq": 100}

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

True

0

0.5000000000000006

kBfotWPCQXu91bbTOoT0

{"NO": 1187.2102829630098, "YES": 842.3107636030777}

0.5849706683119887

will-any-state-won-by-hillary-clint

2682.0034653593157

Will any state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 go for Donald Trump in 2024?

1730869140000

m6mElTtg94MTKxsZf9yBCufb2Vk1

cpmm-1

0

9.238158175192044

False

basic

public

1716997184472

Zen Spam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"YES\" if Donald Trump flips any state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 72.77066941278962, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ZenSpam

1717096404753

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLIvKVX3AZDZ1OUjAUZalvqOygqgvzqxAp-d8d1svLa=s96-c

26

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…m/v7uucb6t0h.jpg

1704156614854

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716997184779}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716997184783}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "g...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump"]

0.25

0.5

1717096401252

1717008127372

0

0.500000000000001

jtZoCx0aV7i5RSEyiwe8

{"NO": 1700.8046500155854, "YES": 587.9570002297662}

0.7431113020585886

will-gta-6-take-up-more-than-200gb

2872.631265379968

Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.

1790830740000

IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92

cpmm-1

0

9.604291835386775

False

basic

public

1716997685275

Andrew

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is for the PC version of the game.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the system requirements on steam whatever steam says will make this market re...

BINARY

{"day": 0.011341885141246788, "week": -0.0026025709418109333, "month": -0.022253851002516756}

0

{"creatorFee": 72.85005495469976, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1000

AndrewCrosse

1720246153640

0

https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261

45

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/gg1dfg45z5.jpg

1709841963600

0

[{"name": "GTA", "slug": "gta", "groupId": "bf8a544d-7232-458e-bf91-49100654648c", "createdTime": 1716997685732}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1716997685755}, {"name": "Memes", "slug": "memes", "groupId": "f6ce5eff-b30b-4f6f-ac41-639ad7a88786", "createdTime":...

["gta", "gaming", "memes", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1720246150554

1717103731916

0

oISkma1gViUEFtPlbfgd

what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-by2w4n9jsr

5891.080768732199

What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, May 31st, 2024?

1717127940000

yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1716998338742

EBurk

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 85.46896916336574, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717201746650

1750

EBurk

1717127940000

0

https://firebasestorage.…0e3-2fdb94d99bad

20

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "az31h475c5", "prob": 0.74, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 422.99652588894907, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 147.75535063474365, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "oISkma1gViUEFtPlbfgd", "resolution"...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…k/bcoxzeoscj.jpg

1706489499554

0

[{"name": "Webcomics", "slug": "webcomics", "groupId": "tO2lKFZZPUkSUzf064Rp", "createdTime": 1716998339108}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1716998339109}, {"name": "xkcd", "slug": "xkcd", "groupId": "58b9cbb3-0e8d-4c8b-be77-7430c96a2d3c", "createdTime": 1716998...

["webcomics", "space", "xkcd", "jimmy-carter", "mathematics"]

0.25

1717117194233

1717168043112

0.01

yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2

False

0

upzd89pHEFqyJ9Lg6oHI

for-how-many-days-will-the-jury-del

23534.661100459187

For how many days will the jury deliberate in People v. Donald Trump (the New York criminal case)?

1717102631195

jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1716998416185

Hyperlincoln

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only days in which the jury is deliberating will be counted, so weekends will not count if the jury takes them off.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 421.9487009987989, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717102652835

1500

Hyperlincoln

1717104739964

0

https://firebasestorage.…f8f-d22d2ae6d687

94

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "1u2jpqu8vm", "prob": 0.04, "text": "One (jury returns a verdict the same day deliberations began, 5/29)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.21569804427344, "userId": "jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1174.4654734774417, "textFts": "'5/29':11 'began':10 'day':8 'deliber':9 'juri':2 'one':1 're...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/dra4efo359.jpg

1690992837377

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716998416584}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1716998416586}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "...

["politics-default", "law-order", "2024-us-presidential-election", "trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century"]

0.25

1717102345572

1717104738377

0.05

jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32

False

0

0.5

axeokfR7CbgCDdpge8Jy

{"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211}

0.4764098414564849

will-discord-launch-a-clip-service-1mynggb0qd

50

Will Discord launch a clip service before the end of 2025?

1735718340000

SfH0WteH4na7JfryESSfXXcIIRB2

cpmm-1

0

9.570679451372035

False

basic

public

1716999651868

Mark Henry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A clip service such as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "medal.tv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://medal.tv", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underlin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MarkHenry

1717002826581

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6k2oH1-PyZO_VflpQEuiAO0UNCE-48MQhwCBTUV8Y=s96-c

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/q0jlnuy5pz.jpg

1671859008187

0

[{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1716999652146}]

["video-games"]

0.25

0.5

1717002822972

0

0.4999999999999999

LJR2dyc5ByJWo37RS1ZB

{"NO": 1154.972434600663, "YES": 865.8215296244325}

0.571543885743718

will-wrexham-promote-to-the-champio

160

Will Wrexham promote to the Championship by 2030?

1875308340000

biJAK5HhSRS5QD3X4ODnNgEWhRr1

cpmm-1

0

9.573558827684632

False

basic

public

1717000572176

Daisy W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“yes” if they promote to the Championship by the end of the 2029 season. “No” if not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, it doesn’t matter if Wrexham or the Champ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.027565399337122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DaisyWelham

1717066717650

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ea-4e5d741095db

3

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…m/tmq2yar1cs.jpg

1705674736043

0

[{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1717000572432}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717000572438}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTi...

["football", "uk-politics", "sports-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717033306497

0

0.5

5WwGonc9E6wzmL9O8N6e

{"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188}

0.5235901585435151

will-annual-uk-debt-interest-paymen

50

Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?

1861919940000

Zz3GS8J8MXR3U84VxvFkUGl4ukJ3

cpmm-1

0

9.57067945137204

False

basic

public

1717004864850

Fedor Shabashev

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predicts whether annual UK debt interest payments will exceed 20% of the government's budget revenue by the year 2028.", "type": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

FedorShabashev

1717068388777

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcYKCCQDvOqTk_mzeu6UCiSOSvacJ8IeBwTnVn0_9vBP8w=s96-c

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…v/71gyhkjvk0.jpg

1690873877043

0

[{"name": "UK economic data", "slug": "uk-economic-data", "groupId": "47c6155e-4d90-4eb0-abec-d85d0f741002", "createdTime": 1717004865643}, {"name": "Inflation", "slug": "inflation", "groupId": "OiDJ9KX5mar9H1asXCUa", "createdTime": 1717004865673}]

["uk-economic-data", "inflation"]

0.25

0.5

1717068385285

0

0.5000000000000002

BroOcFUWD0noqS5eIy4b

{"NO": 386.5556717425336, "YES": 2586.949495507727}

0

will-the-labour-party-win-more-than

5901.49577001837

Will the Labour Party win more than 50% of the popular vote in the next UK election?

1719633540000

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

cpmm-1

0

9.716058495496235

True

basic

NO

public

1717005910814

Enopoletus Harding

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.13, "week": -0.13, "month": -0.22968810606125578}

0

{"creatorFee": 131.77559956121365, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720184768765

1000

EnopoletusHarding

1719633540000

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ad-95807cd293b0

34

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/xizle5g4xz.jpg

1646579574703

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717005911075}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717005911081}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 171...

["politics-default", "uk-politics", "uk", "-uk-general-election-2024"]

0.25

0.5

1719612642755

0.13

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

0

0.5000000000000001

4lrw56BNLL3fW4dffFiF

{"NO": 523.1136335897861, "YES": 1911.6305440897308}

0.2148536336529411

will-idfb-2-come-out-before-2025

933

Will IDFB 2 come out before 2025?

1735689540000

ZQ32f1OrqeVMkkz3hUThe9DsCE12

cpmm-1

0

9.636716963958996

False

basic

public

1717007454786

frosty

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IDFB is an internet web series created by Jacknjellify on the video streaming platform called Youtube. IDFB is part of the BFDI series which is a show similar to Survivor or Total Drama Island but the characters are living objects. It was cancelled...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.369455910269163, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

frosty

1717008132277

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ5USs_dT5qI5e7aZ4LgM06JSdVnJuxEplcDtLH0KtncuFUjFA=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/zfny3tg9ud.jpg

1716845896029

0

[{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1717007455183}]

["television-film"]

0.25

0.5

1717008128692

0

VyEVfcjnSDYJ3jTq1f4Z

are-you-worried-about-microplastics

0

Are you worried about microplastics?

1735718340000

IlFjjkJWHeX82APj8XBaLf6xBzp1

none

0

1000000

False

public

1717007708453

Arcmage7000

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

Arcmage7000

1717007708453

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKKr_9RTvqPbWHRCYxHnS2QoP6rkU7lvKUMekEIaoBhp0Q=s96-c

15

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…0/qknhhy8ost.jpg

1700594381266

0

0.25

0

ZUNGKXkwhym4hC9EEA9U

would-still-work-if-you-didnt-have

0

Would still work if you didn’t have to?

1735707540000

RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1717012487667

Arky

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you could have a first-world upper middle class lifestyle without needing to work and you’re younger than retirement age would you choose to have a job?", "type": "text"}]}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

Arky

1717097852816

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c

16

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/ysrtrfdtbf.jpg

1696787160354

0

[{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717016092207}]

["polls"]

0.25

1717097851440

0

0.5

6Wq7n7MQU9s12QYdsfNQ

{"NO": 1395.4504187753273, "YES": 716.6144970436274}

0

will-i-dump-an-xbox-game-before-jun

407

Will I dump an XBOX game before June?

1718044414473

90A9uZ8CZ5b1gNV81BZvEnFIoeo1

cpmm-1

0

9.587655663934964

True

basic

NO

public

1717013020271

Royer Royer

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have an xbox game. I have an xbox console. I am 7 buttons away from dumping it. Will I?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.6607043222600194}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.549581224672574, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718044414473

1000

RoyerRoyer

1718044414473

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLV_k0gZ5_9n8gdWQfopQyO2y4gZqVT-NtDXpavoQMzrkRWtA=s96-c

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/8uudxnituo.jpg

1717012715344

0

[{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717013020617}]

["technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1717013253149

1717028172229

0.66

90A9uZ8CZ5b1gNV81BZvEnFIoeo1

0

0.5000000000000002

iC4y1hw3DQpRxc9uEQvE

{"NO": 657.4677042538682, "YES": 1520.9872569099912}

0

will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-amzgu8f7k7

662.4651413695108

Will the S&P 500 index close higher on May 30 than it closed on May 29?

1717099447254

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

cpmm-1

0

9.597847981391205

True

basic

NO

public

1717013323412

Jim Fix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.388391772253623, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717099447254

1000

JimFix

1717099447254

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c

5

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/raik0eej1h.jpg

1696775041650

0

[{"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1717013323664}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717013323666}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1...

["finance", "economics-default", "stocks"]

0.25

0.5

1717089757288

0.3

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

0

0.4999999999999999

n0Un9fRClSFMtOkGXmSH

{"NO": 3617.346481392102, "YES": 276.4457331206945}

1

will-the-jury-in-trumps-manhattan-t

2766

Will the jury in Trump's Manhattan trial send a new note to the judge on May 30, 2024?

1717076662997

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

cpmm-1

0

9.844750124348316

True

basic

YES

public

1717014345056

Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the first day of deliberations, the jury sent two notes to the judge. These notes contained requests to rehear parts of testimony and jury instructions. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 42.05306359786447, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717076662997

1000

SaviorofPlant

1717076662997

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c

10

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/f0q7coek1g.jpg

1698371327350

0

[{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717014345367}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717014345369}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4...

["trial-of-the-century", "us-politics", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"]

0.25

0.5

1717076626078

1717076650532

0.93

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

0

7XpKDpeKw1paYi1IGR3Y

what-will-the-low-end-of-my-pdoom-b

1705.1936065632096

What will the low end of my p(doom) be after LessOnline + Manifest ?

1718251140000

QQInWv7nHJgbmN67E7QlHfQDkO42

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

MKT

public

1717015082961

Dave K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My current p(doom) is \"10% to 40%.\" This makes market definitions a little confusing. TO BE CLEAR: We're looking at the lower number here, and its trajectory as a result of spending time in the Bay Area. So, for example, if my p(doom) is now \"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 34.27962773988345, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1718252006577

1000

DaveK

1718259920188

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2R6SvkbqD9GkJI_SN-kCZntRToJnhbIGK4scrO=s96-c

5

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "oa35re18sd", "prob": 0.22, "text": "Higher, by a lot; p(doom) minimum is now 15% or more", "index": 0, "poolNo": 132.72737175402915, "userId": "QQInWv7nHJgbmN67E7QlHfQDkO42", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 470.89005963159764, "textFts": "'15':10 'doom':6 'higher':1 'lot':4 'minimum':7 'p':5", "contractId": "7XpK...

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…K/29juu4iary.jpg

1664484956400

0

[{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015083369}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717015083377}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd5060-392b-495a-83be-8b36dc89797a", "createdTi...

["ai", "ai-safety", "manifest-2024", "ai-doom", "manifest"]

0.25

1717833993130

1718259919048

0.13

QQInWv7nHJgbmN67E7QlHfQDkO42

False

0

0.18986333962518184

UdahpHQ9JYVsT7hwhAKJ

{"NO": 5047.49109942992, "YES": 10000.75672503686}

0

will-i-make-it-to-the-final-table-o

94700.07224985465

Will I make it to the final table of the Manifest 2024 poker tournament?

1717901225158

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

cpmm-1

0

6.484562002713098

True

basic

NO

public

1717015945460

Daniel Filan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I did last year, but it looks like it will be harder this year - apparently only 3 spots at the final table (compared to 6 or so last year).", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.13883569884015362}

0

{"creatorFee": 756.6618729623278, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717901225158

6000

DanielFilan

1717948215271

0

https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e

16

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/w45ckcjee9.jpg

1644858977426

0

[{"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717015945843}, {"name": "Poker", "slug": "poker", "groupId": "kpUuJYWzvqtBO3Be0Xsx", "createdTime": 1717015945846}, {"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1...

["manifest", "poker", "personal", "manifest-2024"]

0.25

0.5

1717901119015

1717948213842

0.11

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

0

0.5000000000000002

4CDqH5aHmUkn7g0snJck

{"NO": 241.23299011146568, "YES": 4145.369999094791}

0

will-flight-dl58-be-delayed-by-more

3723.108907613923

Will flight DL58 be delayed by more than 30 minutes?

1717214340000

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

cpmm-1

0

9.906615316067798

True

basic

NO

public

1717016826343

Sylvie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL58", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL58", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05499312126149724}

0

{"creatorFee": 41.52109329128694, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717259133766

1000

sylv

1717214340000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyoOZtkrJBItDvRE0HvcRDn8txM-_v033jFIifZ=s96-c

3

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…v/eyce25kdt2.jpg

1645008108574

0

0.25

0.5

1717106010063

0.05

JNkmw38JICdw6ySJ9RgWK7WyBdE2

0

0.5000000000000006

cNFd1y1J8PgOJllEy4uJ

{"NO": 1182.4224899824474, "YES": 845.7213969389612}

0.5830072006268202

will-magnus-carlsen-drop-below-2800

502

Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026?

1767308340000

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

cpmm-1

0

9.57469768743407

False

basic

public

1717016829367

Weezing

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rating graph:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJYfqIFVRpj.png?alt=media&token=0d48a1a5-80a4-4b83-b07f-8736da730288...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01993297735585864}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.356246981239188, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Weezing

1719535647410

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276

8

2

0.13333333333333333

1700212225777

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717016829671}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1717016829674}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 171...

["sports-default", "board-games", "chess", "magnus-carlsen"]

0.25

0.5

1719535643842

0

cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D

how-many-manifest-attendees-will-i

5392.969691831199

How many Manifest attendees will I see at contra on the 6th?

1717738467852

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

4wh0g5820c

public

1717016858751

Daniel Filan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Contra is a fun, lively dance form that doesn't require you to be very physically coordinated or not autistic - think kinda like square dance, but easier. There's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a contra dance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "li...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 49.473105877705045, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717738467852

1250

DanielFilan

1717738485665

0

https://firebasestorage.…6a0-6889d0558a2e

6

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "4wh0g5820c", "prob": 0.6838766553061121, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 459.6323915727349, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 212.4659875816135, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D", "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "createdTime"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/wj09ie6tqu.jpg

1644858977426

0

[{"name": "Dance", "slug": "dance", "groupId": "50e21df7-791b-4cf4-8588-2db4dad4941c", "createdTime": 1717016859119}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717016859120}]

["dance", "manifest"]

0.25

1717738425576

1717738484625

{"4wh0g5820c": 100}

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

True

0

0.5000000000000031

QeE1MTQWCHnR68dDFMWu

{"NO": 4741.169944145817, "YES": 210.91840448257835}

0.9574081903161128

will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal

16184.28223081282

Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the EURO 2024?

1719784740000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

9.918391225403974

False

basic

public

1717018460887

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if Cristiano Ronaldo scores at least one goal on EURO 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Goals from penalty shootouts do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.02938440390408814, "month": 0.3582916127243142}

0

{"creatorFee": 163.4250340963279, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

itsTomekK

1720216195639

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

29

9

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…K/5tg27ni6wa.jpg

1658666303973

0

[{"name": "⚽️🤫 Football Rumors", "slug": "football-rumors", "groupId": "eHjingXNejUbQTM9MljG", "createdTime": 1717018461146}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1717018461149}]

["football-rumors", "uefa"]

0.25

0.5

1719784655373

1720216194699

0

0.13999999999999999

nQtXESQlftOHP8rHBOSB

{"NO": 1141.2093931061127, "YES": 444.2351572788279}

0.2948798617304671

will-miri-2024-communications-strat

591

Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

1769904000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

9.833140161816726

False

basic

public

1717019164638

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.02898333620892407, "month": -0.02898333620892407}

0

{"creatorFee": 20.39605816720452, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LessWrong

1719890458800

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

9

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/y213jnvds1.jpg

1706554674237

0

[{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717019165120}, {"name": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute", "slug": "machine-intelligence-research-insti", "groupId": "ac808a3a-62c0-4d2e-b9fb-f8ab9c31af4c", "createdTime": 1...

["lesswrong-annual-review", "machine-intelligence-research-insti", "ai", "ai-risk", "existential-risk"]

0.25

0.14

1719890455673

0

SXdbvoWvxo3YMJq7cmF2

how-much-will-usd-to-mxn-trade-at-t

23125.92105047775

How much will USD to MXN trade at the end of June?

1719810872859

XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.249273434016153

True

plus

cs3q5822t7

public

1717019171594

Kirby Iwaki

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the exchange from US Dollars to Mexican Pesos on the 30th of June, 23:59 UTC?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finan...

NUMBER

0

{"creatorFee": 1136.266055860349, "platformFee": 60.78597678485348, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719810872859

10000

kirby

1719810872859

0

https://firebasestorage.…a07-87bc48dbb3a4

8

2

DISABLED

[{"id": "v5z2gp7c0j", "prob": 0.0009976888586997307, "text": "14-14.2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.301834784904486, "userId": "XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25335.144525095166, "textFts": "'-14.2':2 '14':1", "contractId": "SXdbvoWvxo3YMJq7cmF2", "resolverId": "XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2", ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/l07l5kdjfi.jpg

1690515608783

0

[{"name": "🇲🇽 Mexico", "slug": "mexico", "groupId": "f8kNgkKR4d8snusk1qh1", "createdTime": 1717019172031}, {"name": "Exchange Rates", "slug": "exchange-rates", "groupId": "4deb6e7c-7bea-48dc-9a90-5dbf9241e181", "createdTime": 1717019172035}, {"name": "Forex", "slug": "forex", "groupId": "WVDbfcAwnmsZVjy3wJVh", "creat...

["mexico", "exchange-rates", "forex", "money"]

0.25

1719809733697

1719809846020

{"cs3q5822t7": 100}

XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2

True

0

0.5

kQXzKqimEA1EwGzV5FuV

{"NO": 678.9733964685129, "YES": 1472.811755513863}

0.31553958620961525

will-any-other-country-provide-air

566

Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025?

1748811540000

zDEVlPkmUlUVkjVC79f9J0fpnR32

cpmm-1

0

9.593759782909482

False

basic

public

1717022872880

Goodgulf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if the military of any other country than Ukraine, in order to provide air defence for Ukraine, shoots down or damages at least one drone, missile or aircraft that belongs to Russia or Russia's allies and is in Ukrainian airspac...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.046921310858909604}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.765932539594838, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Goodgulf

1719518849315

0

https://firebasestorage.…815-4b5f7a6bf6e8

7

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f/etzf202fhl.jpg

1714263982992

0

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1717022873132}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1717022873136}]

["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.25

0.5

1719518846184

0

0.5000000000000019

wkqI1829ubCDwgL7lA0P

{"NO": 9906.276475076334, "YES": 100.94610245493914}

1

will-bidens-fivethirtyeight-approva-68ghudpas4

9581.840822021893

Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 37% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽

1720218774221

cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82

cpmm-1

0

9.849963039936553

True

basic

YES

public

1717023409756

Elf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His approval is currently ~37.6% ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating...

BINARY

{"day": 0.07879514521360875, "week": 0.31523386146738486, "month": 0.41744856744573544}

0

{"creatorFee": 66.73617305806671, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

6500

1720218774221

1000

elf

1720218774221

0

https://firebasestorage.…225-4e706826a59b

18

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f/z3o9uv3m7v.jpg

1668973436049

0

[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717023410035}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717023410043}, {"name": "Conditional markets", "slug": "condit...

["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "conditional-markets", "politics-default", "fivethirtyeight"]

0.25

0.5

1720218703361

1720218744569

0.99

cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82

0

b9qT5UGCY2giNNzd0kbq

uk-general-election-how-many-seats-hy0ljfgvfj

109215.54903689338

UK General Election: How many seats will the Labour Party win? (Cumulative Market)

1720276140000

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1717024156344

Tripping

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a cumulative-independent market, which is probably the best way to represent these kinds of markets. This also uses previous general election results as benchmarks, which is also I think one of the better ways to represent these kinds of ma...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1099.9963281385087, "platformFee": 98.83530883056177, "liquidityFee": 0}

17837.915076312453

5001

Tripping

1720243007657

0

https://firebasestorage.…25f-2823bd2dce88

112

34

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "x2c0uyoe4u", "prob": 0.99, "text": "More than 202 seats (What Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party achieved at the 2019 election)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2487.6257954132147, "userId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.12753328700218, "textFts": "'2019':14 '202':3 'achiev':11 'corbyn':7 'e...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/w397fnzx7e.jpg

1669033757222

0

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717024156765}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717024156771}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId...

["politics-default", "uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk"]

0.25

1720243004472

1720182206379

False

alphabetical

0

0.4999999999999999

VRYukX0NtpZRZIMfclae

{"NO": 303.7272552246746, "YES": 3292.427606670597}

0

will-there-be-another-patreon-exclu

6731.809927890924

Will there be another Patreon Exclusive Stream for the Anything Else Podcast by the end of June 2024?

1719817140000

foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2

cpmm-1

0

9.804021848081401

True

basic

NO

public

1717024876789

Punished Furry

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Patreon exclusive streams have not been received well by the community. Will there be another one by the end of June 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These are some reactions to the ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.23417435890050853, "month": -0.6610940639374155}

0

{"creatorFee": 153.7608067964106, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719858264143

1000

PunishedFurry

1719817140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c

15

4

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/6frt3qzedi.jpg

1666746014983

0

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1717024877035}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717024877040}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "c...

["destinygg", "politics-default", "culture-default", "technology-default"]

0.25

0.5

1719751634687

1717036686781

0.08

foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2

0

0.5000000000000001

TVXUZlN8aD4er0yluLZ6

{"NO": 1022.121419426546, "YES": 978.3573467827761}

0.510938399692864

will-bitcoin-reach-1-million-by-203

3119.397106652943

Will Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2030?

1924988340000

SXkPkdIew6WpUSIWhkwpvM7w0b62

cpmm-1

0

9.570407662423744

False

basic

public

1717028171424

Lightning Bee ⚡ 🐝

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/10/former-twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-says-bitcoin-will-go-beyond-1-million-in-2030/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/05/10/former-twitter-ceo...

BINARY

{"day": 0.211906390558039, "week": 0.3124951704405968, "month": 0.3124951704405968}

0

{"creatorFee": 73.54657264875941, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

600

1000

LightningBee

1720199627681

0

https://firebasestorage.…428-12a5273b4519

9

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/z04qk07fzg.jpg

1691608293865

0

[{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1717028171679}, {"name": "🅱️ Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1717028171682}, {"name": "Bitcoin maxi", "slug": "bitcoin-maxi", "groupId": "q6y2Gz8Wmy4nZwtfmpHt", "created...

["crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi"]

0.25

0.5

1720199614776

0

0.5000000000000001

FP5RpafRYIsZdQVlGmlh

{"NO": 14808.272944750635, "YES": 14808.272944750635}

0.5000000000000001

will-the-average-price-of-housing-i

0

Will the average price of housing in San Francisco be lower in 2025 than 2024?

1717032173315

GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2

cpmm-1

0

2.0223757823228112

True

plus

CANCEL

public

1717030958720

Inga Wei

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717032173315

19000

IngaWei

1717032173315

0

https://firebasestorage.…052-76e14e1219ba

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…i/qswu6g4s5c.jpg

1656622870491

True

0

[{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1717030958973}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1717030958985}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKq...

["san-francisco", "housing-markets", "economics-default", "urbanism"]

0.25

0.5

GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2

0

0.5

gcv4PlEryU4qwn9QuMgN

{"NO": 10077.315838180662, "YES": 9980.921253929977}

0.5024028678045839

liquidityyyy-10k

50

liquidityyyy 10k

1717032033732

GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2

cpmm-1

0

2.7206231615000798

True

plus

CANCEL

public

1717031425356

Inga Wei

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6868954844655288, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717032043583

19000

IngaWei

1717032033732

0

https://firebasestorage.…052-76e14e1219ba

1

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…i/ocpd6ufgrf.jpg

1656622870491

True

0

0.25

0.5

1717031727650

0.5

GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2

0

0.49999999999999845

GPNnE6JjonPpM1jJJPRF

{"NO": 9483.794268265585, "YES": 105.4430296264627}

1

first-crystal-market-in-june

10467.728286936184

First Crystal Market in June?

1717733478484

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

cpmm-1

0

9.85238282377025

True

basic

YES

public

1717032222009

Bayesian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0cy_YwbM2V.png?alt=media&token=dba9edcb-09d4-40a5-93b4-678a0721aceb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will someone cr...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.6559956442075952}

0

{"creatorFee": 106.91017201297817, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717733478484

1000

Bayesian

1717733478484

0

https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3

17

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/cahvvjjbb7.jpg

1656040913178

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717032222269}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717032222348}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1717733308141

1717733163959

0.99

srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2

0

0.5428744129322087

3Xjyd47jqdaAYnCJqvTG

{"NO": 3120.187729045067, "YES": 2433.2467676254055}

0.6036235938707057

first-crystal-tier-market-in-2024

400

First Crystal Tier Market in 2024?

1717033492448

APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2

cpmm-1

0

6.173612337403984

True

plus

CANCEL

public

1717033046755

JRP

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES immediately when someone creates a Crystal tier market in 2024 (which currently costs 1 million Mana to make).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no such market is cre...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.78661387789106, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717033492448

10000

parhizj

1717033609189

0

https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8

2

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…j/ekxwo86iad.jpg

1684698640145

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717033047087}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717033047084}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1717033359795

1717033607741

0.6

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0

0.49999999999999695

0EEABS6WKPDhwBfFcu61

{"NO": 9949.874371066213, "YES": 100.50378152592134}

1

first-crystal-tier-market-in-2024-ulki0vqvcs

23686.99964156255

First Crystal Tier Market in 2024?

1717758849284

APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923052

True

basic

YES

public

1717033558970

JRP

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES immediately when someone creates a Crystal tier market in 2024 (which currently costs 1 million Mana to make).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no such market is cre...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3100000000000003}

0

{"creatorFee": 285.4512724344361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717758849284

1000

parhizj

1717758849284

0

https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8

20

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…j/6yeb36j4wd.jpg

1684698640145

0

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717033559217}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717033559225}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.25

0.5

1717745336282

1717733121458

0.99

APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2

0

0.5000000000000002

XrIbNfM9iiuhRzACE8fC

{"NO": 1423.498946930392, "YES": 702.4943728665123}

0.6695688710190204

will-a-1-cent-coin-be-issued-by-the

6849.226914432639

Will a 1 cent coin be issued by the US government in 2030?

1924945140000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.589798258029996

False

basic

public

1717038653527

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06786366748626849}

0

{"creatorFee": 178.39166046958925, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1717979351423

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

61

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/054o4vbf07.jpg

1644447319203

0

[{"name": "2030", "slug": "2030", "groupId": "ff8e3bd3-f04e-4b32-a7db-69a0ba6a72ab", "createdTime": 1717038653787}, {"name": "Money", "slug": "money", "groupId": "Sh8C5Y6hkvLT7jyyLRX8", "createdTime": 1717038653774}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "...

["2030", "money", "united-states", "currency"]

0.25

0.5

1717979348313

1717098560449

0

0.5000000000000001

Vkn3Z4Z5rmiv0SclSlYs

{"NO": 975.3588749782508, "YES": 1025.2636497743442}

1

game-5-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da

1530.8550828807959

(Game 5) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on May 31 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)

1717201800000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

9.570429978676984

True

basic

YES

public

1717040243330

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 44.40612944827197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717212132516

1000

KeenenW

1717201800000

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

8

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…W/7edac41y94.jpg

1697247005528

0

[{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717040243780}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1717040243808}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1...

["sports-default", "hockey", "culture-default", "sports-betting", "nhl"]

0.25

0.5

1717201544576

1717193798110

0.49

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0

0.5000000000000008

YBrWo0qxVdoTfu0AzoOq

{"NO": 1020.2040612204048, "YES": 980.1960588196083}

0

daily-coinflip-u9uchxy9cq

13034.643381753891

Daily coinflip

1717214340000

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

cpmm-1

0

9.57039545373802

True

basic

NO

public

1717042021928

Traveel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 157)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5099999999999998}

0

{"creatorFee": 165.65561380057252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1717300674946

1000

Traveel

1717214340000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c

39

0

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…l/lsmg70gcg7.jpg

1674441975928

0

[{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1717042022183}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717042022188}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac...

["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.25

0.5

False

1717202360721

1717295132811

0.51

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

0