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0.5000000000000001 | TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO | {"NO": 464.9853808296353, "YES": 2150.605247450541} | 0.17777452472957372 | will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4 | 3645.2903656063927 | Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine within 2 years of Ireland, Norway and Spain? | 1780088340000 | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.663699646719913 | False | basic | public | 1716909640801 | Gaz Downright | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today, May 28, 2024, Ireland, Norway, and Spain officially recognized the State of Palestine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Germany do the same within two years?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t1.\tDefinition: Official recognition involves the German government's formal declaration or diplomatic note acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t2.\tSource: Confirmation through credible sources such as official German government statements, major news outlets, or international diplomatic records.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t3.\tTiming: Recognition must occur before May 29, 2026, German time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Similar market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/will-germany-recognize-the-state-of", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 64.2783784754718, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GazDownright | 1717291842002 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697568039966 | 0 | [{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1716909641085}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1716909706322}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1716909716236}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1716909742761}] | ["germany", "palestine", "israel", "geopolitics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717291842002 | 1716919976649 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | l7StdSwaNTwpNIvWJa5E | {"NO": 452.5696378552521, "YES": 2209.604702469759} | 0.17000000000000012 | will-we-find-out-by-2026-that-opena | 3829.195452428541 | Will we find out by 2026 that OpenAI abandoned an attempt to train GPT-5? | 1767254340000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.649836359832113 | False | basic | public | 1716910465513 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today, OpenAI revealed in a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "press release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that \"OpenAI has recently begun training its next frontier model\". It was commonly believed that GPT-5 had begun training in 2023, shortly after GPT-4 finished. For example, the market for a release this year went from 68% to 50% on the OpenAI press release today, and markets like ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this one", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " implied a substantial chance of training beginning in 2023 earlier this year.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves YES if any reputable news source, such as The Information, indicates that OpenAI did in fact begin a training run for GPT-5 previously and abandoned it to start this training run. This could indicate that they ran into some sort of issue or simply that they decided to restart and train a cheaper model using the innovations made for GPT-4o, if those save a significant amount of compute.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"GPT-5\" here means \"a scaled up version of GPT-4\"; if it is referred to by a codename but they mention that it has many more parameters than GPT-4 and is the model that would have been expected to be called GPT-5, I would still resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.92458880389951, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1717555857373 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 48 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-5 Speculation", "slug": "gpt5-speculation", "groupId": "XjoIQCNrsc4HP3H3DdTP", "createdTime": 1716910465884}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1716910465876}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716910465893}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716910465922}] | ["gpt5-speculation", "technical-ai-timelines", "openai", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717555854249 | 1716968583439 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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aHCmNidrZfPY7om4Uysf | which-market-will-be-manifolds-favo | 1982.579183932141 | Which market will be Manifold's favorite market of 2024? 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fxED0oz1iD6tZeCoThcH | how-many-total-votes-will-our-mechi | 20380.59420288822 | How many total votes will our mechinterp lesswrong post get before July? | 1719871140000 | 51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716923319304 | Victor Levoso | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Abhayesian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/users/abhayesian?from=post_header", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " recently posted a lesswrong post explaining our paper, how many total votes will it get before July (using votes instead of karma to avoid incentivicing low number holders to down-vote).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": 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0.5000000000000008 | mEID6f2b0a1D1XnJyf9V | {"NO": 682.3097381866646, "YES": 1465.6100360778169} | 1 | will-manifold-add-a-cheaper-tier-fo | 7407.241563994178 | Will Manifold add a cheaper tier for question creation by the end of June? (e.g. 100 mana cost) | 1717483431163 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.593166572255313 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716928111858 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We are already planning to add market tiers for 1k, 10k, 100k, 1M markets. Will we add 100 mana as a tier? (Or any amount less than 1k?)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think this could unlock a huge amount of activity, similar to Manifold before the cash prizes pivot. Users could create lots of fun and niche markets. We'd get more trades, comments, and markets shared. I've heard from several creators that the high market creation cost is meaningfully dampening how many questions they create.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One downside is traders would have to adapt to markets with low liquidity. We'd probably change the bet buttons to default to 1/10th their current amounts for these markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Another downside could be lower-quality markets. Is it good to host these on our site?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lastly, from a business perspective, it could be that people would create more 100 mana markets instead of 1k mana markets, and thus buy less mana, decreasing our revenue.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Personally, I think the greater content and activity that results from this change would increase revenue in the long run, but I'm not sure.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.6823392817730767} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 204.7560709030516, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717486743756 | 1000 | JamesGrugett | 1717596499318 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716928112122}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1716928112154}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717441134582 | 1717596497383 | 0.32 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | SEKcyuQGYzqSN44RTpNd | {"NO": 1011.0277042939881, "YES": 934.8484780660409} | 0.14970052586382956 | will-openai-fallout-make-the-top-fi | 70 | Will "OpenAI: Fallout" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.887534124660583 | False | basic | public | 1716928393270 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "OpenAI: Fallout", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YwhgHwjaBDmjgswqZ/openai-fallout", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6077571063418992, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717076145233 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716928393547}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015767590}, {"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717015770333}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "ai", "openai"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717076141756 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gKFNQHJs7pKpweDrA0Dx | if-trump-is-convicted-of-interferin | 652.0967192537752 | Having been convicted of interfering with the 2016 election, how much jail time will Trump be sentenced to? | 1727409540000 | NlGi8mChdPQLAdaq8tkBhsMKfs72 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716933056664 | Stephen S Power | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1-2 years means 365 days plus no more than 364 days. Extrapolate for the other choices. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Choice 7 is for those who think he'll skate. IMHO the ice has cracked open beneath him, and he will get 30 months. I also think he'll be remanded into custody as a flight risk, but that's a different question. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sentencing is July 11 at 10am EDT. 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tVqEu4AsFdy5BD5fQtsZ | have-you-tried-modafinil | 0 | Have you tried Modafinil? | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1716933896695 | singer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://gwern.net/modafinil", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gwern.net/modafinil", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On any specific aspect, there may be a stimulant superior to modafinil, but few stimulants come close to modafinil’s overall package of being a long-lasting, safe, effective, non-mood-altering, quasi-legal stimulant, and that is why it has become so popular.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is overall a better stimulant than caffeine or the amphetamines[", "type": "text"}, {"text": "11]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gwern.net/modafinil#sn11", "class": "footnote-ref spawns-popup", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and targets different receptors than the amphetamines[", "type": "text"}, {"text": "12].", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gwern.net/modafinil#sn12", "class": "footnote-ref spawns-popup", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " The picture is good enough that some bioethicists are daring enough to go off their usual script (“the long-term effects are unclear; there may be unexpected side-effects or long-term consequences[", "type": "text"}, {"text": "13]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gwern.net/modafinil#sn13", "class": "footnote-ref spawns-popup", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "—more study is required”) and abandon the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Precautionary Principle", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle", "class": "link-live has-icon has-annotation content-transform spawns-popup", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and suggest that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "maybe", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " healthy people using modafinil might be a good thing[", "type": "text"}, {"text": "14]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gwern.net/modafinil#sn14", "class": "footnote-ref spawns-popup", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | singer | 1716934843404 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1695522783407 | 0 | [{"name": "Drugs", "slug": "drugs", "groupId": "6277e258-91d0-4621-8487-f98ffa56b0c5", "createdTime": 1716933896931}, {"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1716933896940}, {"name": "Nootropics", "slug": "nootropics", "groupId": "1be8d91c-4558-4753-8064-9c6b4f5185b8", "createdTime": 1716934144080}] | ["drugs", "health", "nootropics"] | 0.25 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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About what, who can say, but the total and complete lack of information certainly has not prevented speculation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Could this be just the resumption of him giving daily On Kawara-style weather report videos on his X feed on June 5? Absolutely. Could it be something to do with the David Lynch Foundation and/or transcendental meditation? Always a possibility. 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0.5000000000000002 | o2vVhIqIu02XLZMTtwES | {"NO": 356.0209256793943, "YES": 2808.823661394908} | 0 | will-at-least-193-people-10-of-my-f | 2536.716899097697 | Will at least 19.3 people (10% of my follower count) bet on any new personal market that I make in June? | 1719817140000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.743500723303338 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716943797932 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With The Pivot and all, my Manifold market activity has been feeling a bit more anemic lately. And this is for me, someone who is lucky enough to be an enfranchised user with many more followers than the average Manifolder, but idk.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In particular, I used to enjoy and appreciate making markets about aspects of my personal life for entertainment / motivation / forecasting, but they don't get as much participation as they used to. For example, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the market I made about my cold", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/prop-bets-conflux-caught-a-cold", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " has had a lot of free mana and wasn't very useful or entertaining (though it was partially a liquidity issue). They cost 10x more mana, too, so I feel more like I should be weighing costs and benefits instead of just spewing forth every market idea that enters my mind (as I used to). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is true that I haven't made as many non-personal markets recently, so maybe that's what I should do. If I have some ideas...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I get this - amid the Pivot, Manifold is disfavoring personal markets - but anyway, I wanted to make a market measuring this a bit. Both the Manifold environment and my inclination to make markets. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time a personal market of mine had at least 19.3 bettors ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "was in March", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-i-get-into-a-car-accident-in-2", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Personal\" refers to the topic of the market. It should be about me.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If my follower count changes, this market will be about 10% of the new value.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2811101892220014, "month": -0.5791830656554061} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.7874933768329, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719855390109 | 1000 | Conflux | 1719856151888 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640740518271 | 0 | [{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1716943890382}] | ["personal"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719790182183 | 1719856148891 | 0.11 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999994 | 2WP2XUlxLOkyxchNiQCG | {"NO": 1193.5350882388789, "YES": 837.8471733709571} | 0.5875482477104149 | will-i-receive-significant-evidence | 1041.410440918412 | Will I receive significant evidence that Paul Christiano is not legally bound by a mutual OpenAI NDA before EOY2024 | 1735718340000 | hIMCU8obvLSeOQm07kqvPkD2lVm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575273750148053 | False | basic | public | 1716951055388 | Garrett Baker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Significant evidence = first, second, or third-hand reports from people who I trust.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NDA = non-disparagement agreement, not non-disclosure agreement", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.41022986050751, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GarrettBaker | 1717598307027 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjoFmf8O1o7c4jUCbaWIlJo80o0-6Iu7DZbNVOOhx4=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644448539248 | 0 | [{"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1716951055648}] | ["ai-regulation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717598303731 | 1717124348737 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ZmtUP0icyht9KmKS50vt | {"NO": 229.02818056216756, "YES": 4366.274916673668} | 0.04983962444173327 | biden-pardons-trump-before-november | 5084.1140050986705 | Will Biden pardon Trump before November 5th, 2024 AND win the 2024 election? | 1733029140000 | bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.902672642771988 | False | basic | public | 1716951320817 | Eric Bolton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Markets resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden wins (as per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") AND Biden EITHER announces OR issues a presidential pardon of Trump.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Track in relation to this: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/EduardoFilippi/will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/EduardoFilippi/will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.0022324977308384453, "month": -0.1988475727302161} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 55.611078227662155, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EricBolton | 1720056757726 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691454991515 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720056754512 | 1717005333364 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | zdhAODow9Td6IsZadjoj | {"NO": 974.6039242429471, "YES": 1026.0578427044409} | 0.48714077528956795 | biden-does-not-pardon-trump-before | 37 | Will Biden lose the 2024 election AND NOT pardon Trump before November 5th, 2024? | 1733029140000 | bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570436070367645 | False | basic | public | 1716951331454 | Eric Bolton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Markets resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden loses (as per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") AND Biden does not announce or issue a presidential pardon of Trump. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track in relation to this:: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/EduardoFilippi/will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/EduardoFilippi/will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2398591393540934, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EricBolton | 1717134589266 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691454991515 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717134585658 | 1717001318744 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO | {"NO": 577.3502691896282, "YES": 1732.0508075688829} | 0.25000000000000017 | will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab | 19182.595491076663 | Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months? | 1725260340000 | 7ZUzSoFRd0SABh2p63Gp2Gcnr1u1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.566402268072121 | False | basic | public | 1716954826560 | Michael Lo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I receive an offer for a full-time job doing software engineering, ML engineering, and/or research engineering by September 1, 2024. Resolves NO if I do not receive an offer for a full-time job doing software engineering, ML engineering, and/or research engineering by September 1, 2024. I will not bet on this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For background, I am in the Online MSCS program at Georgia Tech and I did my Bachelor's in Computer Science at UC Riverside. 4 years ago, I applied to some software engineering internships but I didn't do the online assessments because I was worried that I hadn't prepared enough. Over the next 4 years, I did no interview preparation and completed my Bachelor's. In December 2023, I applied to the MATS fellowship and the METR research assistant position, but I didn't pass the CodeSignal assessments and was rejected. You can see my professional background on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "my LinkedIn", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://linkedin.com/in/lomikee", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will post about what I'm learning on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "my website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://lomichael.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", where I also maintain ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a plan for the next 3 months", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lomichael.org/will-i-get-a-software-engineering-job-within-3-months", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". I plan to complete some paper replications and open source contributions, then start applying at the end of June/beginning of July. I am aiming to work at major AI labs (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, FAR AI, etc.), but I will also be applying to software/ML engineering roles at other tech companies. I will accept any offer at a major AI lab if I receive one, but if not, I will accept the offer with the best compensation and work accommodation.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.03527139873799112} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 372.9257520845465, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lomichael | 1719065428345 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716446293039 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716954826819}, {"name": "Careers", "slug": "careers", "groupId": "vKBZ7Wc2di6zZbDko0Wg", "createdTime": 1716954826822}, {"name": "Jobs", "slug": "jobs", "groupId": "d5cd7d99-573a-41ea-a067-13acc4577e04", "createdTime": 1716954826820}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716954826815}] | ["ai", "careers", "jobs", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719065425297 | 1717809095670 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 5MsvTPOrBi0MOsea7KOp | {"NO": 861.9576026986913, "YES": 1160.1498691688707} | 0 | game-5-new-york-rangers-beat-florid | 172 | (Game 5) New York Rangers beat Florida Panthers on May 30 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs) | 1717113600000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573762401048997 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716955317681 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers on May 30", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Rangers+vs+Panthers#sie=m;/g/11y4qtc1tp;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 7pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7pm CST on May 30", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.4058450645583935, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717124291066 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1717113600000 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716955318191}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716955318196}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1716955318197}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1716955318199}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1716955318195}] | ["culture-default", "sports-default", "hockey", "nhl", "sports-betting"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717106180873 | 0.43 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Jd9ceHIuRScf0JQsfuTf | {"NO": 1582.479031760632, "YES": 631.9199053698816} | 0.7146314086527052 | will-bridgerton-season-3-enter-the | 985 | Will "Bridgerton: Season 3" enter the all time Netflix Top 10? | 1726469940000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.385868124276708 | False | basic | public | 1716955973612 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Most Popular TV (English) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/most-popular/tv", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Netflix reports its all time most popular shows based on \"views in their first 91 days\". ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Bridgerton: Season 1\" is ranked #4, and \"Bridgerton: Season 2\" is ranked #9.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To no one's surprise, \"Bridgerton: Season 3\" is performing very well on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "weekly Netflix charts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/tv", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (far ahead at #1 in its first two weeks). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if \"Bridgerton: Season 3\" places in the top 10.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As Netflix computes its all-time charts based on the first 91 days of viewership, resolution will be straightforward—if we haven't heard anything by September 15th, we will know it didn't place in the top 10.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "While S3 releases in two parts, currently it seems like Netflix is counting it as a single season for the charts. If for some reason it gets split up, that could impact whether it makes the chart (although I believe it's based on \"views\", which divides for length, AFAIK). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.58082388706776, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1717372075745 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1716955973885}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716955973888}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716955973874}, {"name": "TV", "slug": "tv", "groupId": "8isZHbaQMsoFz30XuZTo", "createdTime": 1716955973887}] | ["television-film", "entertainment", "culture-default", "tv"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717372072638 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997 | xdwIrS1AIPJ5YFOMwGAo | {"NO": 1427.5797848998593, "YES": 700.4862429248744} | 0.6708343473529823 | will-manifold-demote-any-prize-mark | 3112.3732824509516 | Will manifold demote any Prize Market to regular market ? (2024) | 1735649940000 | HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.541748652396517 | False | basic | public | 1716959760896 | Odoacre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.16996741853987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Odoacre | 1717056034910 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1660254401272 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716959761651}, {"name": "Prize Points", "slug": "prize-points", "groupId": "beeb5983-89ed-4af0-91d4-4df78b4e99b4", "createdTime": 1716959761655}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "prize-points"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717056031470 | 1716983650401 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | n5OfGUXhVB6dA1XQ6ehY | {"NO": 1723.1600539853907, "YES": 580.3291445197809} | 0.7480651765606808 | will-nvidia-stock-crash-before-the | 7375.538142099754 | Will Nvidia stock crash before the S&P500? | 1924984740000 | XXYfg8j2XWVCeet9HlOAA1vUwQW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.499092416521108 | False | basic | public | 1716960195867 | Dark Speculator | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A crash here means 20% drop from all time highs to end of day price.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if it happens to Nvidia stock first, NO if it happens to the S&P 500 first, and 50% if both happens on the same day.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.010700199900643304, "month": -0.02263131018714415} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 141.40554263356654, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | 0482 | 1720031564069 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteS8SwkT3ywrOgne_djZRPozlXiVaKvKDJhqwdJd3Ox=s96-c | 51 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691595630760 | 0 | [{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1716960196098}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716960196112}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716960196105}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525", "createdTime": 1716960196109}] | ["nvidia", "ai", "stocks", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720031560897 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 4mytHNAVnpL31wwfPrhI | {"NO": 376.24724754575993, "YES": 2657.8267522830893} | 0 | will-a-random-number-between-1-and-11e5q019m0 | 3995.663574650973 | Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1? | 1717225140000 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.7247858994766 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716960975415 | themightysalmon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market has a 10% chance to resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When the market closes, I’ll ask the FairlyRandom bot in the comments for a random number between 1 and 10, eg “@FairlyRandom 10”. If that number is 1, market resolves YES. Any other number resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.99171179164509, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717226576486 | 1000 | themightysalmon | 1717226648046 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707978226998 | 0 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1716960975656}] | ["fairlyrandom"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717220672214 | 1717226646952 | 0.12 | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | OutR0IOJ3BG5UPjhTwNL | {"NO": 601.8255490897427, "YES": 1661.6110790120083} | 0.2658901696728608 | will-nvda-stock-fall-below-92-usd-a | 1248.7399617042765 | Will NVDA stock fall below 92 usd (after stock split) at any moment in 2024? | 1735685940000 | GzFn7mDYAoO0ke6vpLVgmPr2im02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.610819679613254 | False | basic | public | 1716963484073 | Anto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.17446317756066698} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.92857674981332, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Anto | 1719255892949 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1689783142950 | 0 | [{"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1716963484327}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716963484332}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716963484339}, {"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1716963484336}] | ["gpu", "ai", "technology-default", "nvidia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719255889869 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG | conditional-on-trumpbiden-winning-t | 3036.614403063505 | Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ? | 1767567540000 | WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716966978356 | Mich | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There should be no N/A resolution !", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Due to the pivot, I can’t make real conditional markets so these are about joint probabilities. Each option will resolve YES if and only if both statements (about elections ; about riots) come true and NO otherwise. Which means if Trump or Biden wins the election, then exactly one option should resolve YES and three should resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before 2026 means by 31st December, 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For whether there is a large-scale rioting, I will defer to this market : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/CodeandSolder/will-there-be-largescale-rioting-in-721f0882dfd8", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.67954920531625, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mich | 1717698062318 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJH-sOGQLlaWmZ06V2GS3Eph-iwWYUqqiPvrD86D3wnIg=s96-c | 19 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "ps1wr7mg2c", "prob": 0.21030278926345694, "text": "Trump wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026", "index": 0, "poolNo": 129.01262832736157, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 484.4486994049156, "textFts": "'2026':10 'larg':6 'riot':8 'scale':7 'trump':1 'win':2", "contractId": "BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG", "createdTime": 1716966978357, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.029541532006753912, "month": -0.2896972107365431}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T21:21:27.335", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.029541532006753912, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.2896972107365431}, {"id": "oyj4xj5qs0", "prob": 0.5099999999999999, "text": "Trump wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026", "index": 1, "poolNo": 255.05101530510166, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 245.04901470490168, "textFts": "'2026':10 'larg':6 'riot':8 'scale':7 'trump':1 'win':2", "contractId": "BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG", "createdTime": 1716966978357, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10922066542140757, "week": 0.06030627754154011, "month": 0.009999999999999898}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T21:21:27.329", "probChangeDay": 0.10922066542140757, "probChangeWeek": 0.06030627754154011, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.009999999999999898}, {"id": "va5kp98rjb", "prob": 0.31052180452466893, "text": "Biden wins ; there is a large scale rioting before 2026", "index": 2, "poolNo": 167.77443740091775, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 372.52397306896336, "textFts": "'2026':10 'biden':1 'larg':6 'riot':8 'scale':7 'win':2", "contractId": "BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG", "createdTime": 1716966978357, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.04266754989997279, "month": -0.18947819547533107}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T21:21:27.333", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.04266754989997279, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.18947819547533107}, {"id": "mr96affuof", "prob": 0.27169456420564714, "text": "Biden wins ; there is no large scale rioting before 2026", "index": 3, "poolNo": 152.6946102457035, "userId": "WdW6XfWw74QP4AkjKrXkTL3fq0v1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 409.3137269182602, "textFts": "'2026':10 'biden':1 'larg':6 'riot':8 'scale':7 'win':2", "contractId": "BceikhTW1LCAO5FlW1VG", "createdTime": 1716966978357, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.024689136810375323, "month": -0.22830543579435286}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T00:21:22.253", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.024689136810375323, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.22830543579435286}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1702591853953 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716966978656}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716966978666}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716966978674}] | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1717618886817 | 1717698060896 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999917 | 7LhCUzA4f15Gur94Yh0Q | {"NO": 9949.874371066255, "YES": 100.50378152592151} | 1 | will-anthropic-release-a-new-model | 14780.96051170946 | Will Anthropic Release a major new model this year (e.g. Claude 3.5/4 family) | 1718899487212 | LchNpQLwE3fvH61huzQAOWjsyUn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.84972144192306 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716967729831 | Diego Akel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2878692365433586} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 123.75312608132334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718899487212 | 1000 | DiegoAkel | 1718899487212 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJLC0UNh6vr2wORhYWuQqZcrQgpvvxWy6ErN5j5Sw0ZABbERTWByw=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716795136208 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716967730086}, {"name": "Anthropic", "slug": "anthropic", "groupId": "B8jfqGL9Uqu5nejktmVi", "createdTime": 1716967730089}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716967730084}] | ["ai", "anthropic", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718895495358 | 1717777200936 | 0.99 | LchNpQLwE3fvH61huzQAOWjsyUn1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | YmoNVKh5M2R49ofiDYGP | {"NO": 2876.9301469618767, "YES": 347.59272867852854} | 1 | will-i-find-more-than-10-bugs-withi | 3162 | Will I find more than 10 bugs within the next week? | 1717732821865 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.75198394117525 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716968630322 | Caleb | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't have to video record them. My memory is very good. I promise to estimate to the best of my ability, and list out in general what the bugs are about when counting them up at the end, unless I've submitted them, at which point I will describe in as much detail as my bug reports do. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's what I believe I have found within the past 7 days; I'll expand detail once I submit them all (or the people whom I've asked to submit them all actually do so). I expect I can submit these bugs for a bounty myself (some companies still pay bug bounties)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) bug with group chats on messenger", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2) manifold bug #1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3) manifold bug #2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4) ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will complete the rest of the above within 24 hours or your money back. (but not ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "literally", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " your money back)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.060443209917446894} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.28636333147684, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717732821865 | 1000 | klob | 1717795766170 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678278607093 | 0 | [{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1716968630563}] | ["bugs"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717671296029 | 1717795765020 | 0.89 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | EZ6kVa8KWVuC2UXJwmmS | {"NO": 1058.0265471525854, "YES": 945.1558684337842} | 0.5281728408358062 | am-i-annoying-people-because-of-tel | 60 | Am I annoying people because of [Telegram & Manifold] to Discord bridges unknowingly? | 1717657140000 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57082732006171 | False | basic | public | 1716969798968 | Caleb | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nearly kicked out of EthSecurity telegram group. And removed from Less Online | Summer Camp | Manifest maybe. See my other poll about that. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I really suspect that this is due in part due to bridges; I know that there's a bridge from Telegram to Discord in that EthSecurity group. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And I know that there is a bridge from Manifold to Discord as well. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I also know that the other day, when I was on Treasure Island / Yerba Buena island, I saw a road sign - one of those highway road signs - that said \"BRIDGES OUT\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That last one might be irrelevant, but it stood out to me because I stopped my car and literally tried to get other people to stop. And today I realized it was probably some really fuckin' shitty prank. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(I use the edit button a lot, and I suspect that many people don't have their Discord notifications set correctly!)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004582682292291085} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.9734528474147301, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | klob | 1717656463020 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678278607093 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717656459907 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | SKubnWX7m2BczOLM3P2q | {"NO": 36695.06272246713, "YES": 9326.867829291168} | 1 | did-manifold-actually-find-the-thie | 52317.86944604896 | Did Manifold actually find the thief of that one painting? | 1718379510135 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8879933932421145 | True | plus | YES | public | 1716970100815 | Caleb | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Did Manifold actually find the thief of that one painting?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.16079699960132954} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 965.067831483896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718379510135 | 18500 | klob | 1718379510135 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678278607093 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718194335107 | 1717004391603 | 0.8 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
hor1BPJRBS04leGM8Dfw | is-manifolds-big-pivot-outside-its | 0 | Is Manifold's Big Pivot outside its current scope? | 1717628340000 | PcmJqrSd5HN56RpdSmy0UjNSSMl2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716970353142 | Noit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold's Big Pivot: Prize Points, devaluing Mana, jacking up question costs, potentially moving to cash prizes, everything else that has been part of The Big Pivot.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All that stuff: is it within Manifold's pre-pivot scope? Or is this an extension of Manifold's scope, i.e. it was outside of scope pre-pivot.", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717628340414 | Noit | 1717010699653 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714464978295 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1716970353421}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716970353427}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1716970353436}] | ["pivot-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"] | 0.25 | ["pnjhvrgoim"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49565099820154535 | zcqfBbd46c0bZ1VC9eNa | {"NO": 1210.6542035272548, "YES": 10307.903917906777} | 0 | is-the-20000000th-block-of-ethereum | 8733.385584077716 | Is the 20,000,000th block of Ethereum actually within 12 hours of June 1, GMT-0? | 1717138740000 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.770873720343911 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716970459212 | Caleb | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would spin up a blockchain node to check, and in fact have one in front of me, but it's hard to walk around my house looking for a power cord, because I just threw out my back. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So here's a poll because this seems SUPER important to figure out; it may have been the case that the PoW to PoS exact switchover time was chosen for this outcome, but I can't remember. Doing research on a cell phone is hard. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.10347960149819957} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 143.4338239928845, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717305589869 | 3500 | klob | 1717138740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678278607093 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716970459481}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717137734599 | 1717222156184 | 0.1 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HxinYXD1JfSABt5qumsF | why-does-practical-engineering-yt-c | 0 | Why does Practical Engineering YT Channel Say "The Map is Not the Territory" @ 61s in his video about Bridges? | 1717657140000 | fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1716971431991 | Caleb | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717657140614 | klob | 1716971431991 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbEIvsgN2Yt12mM3a7_v0MwsoMbuPrmnA9GSZi-Pws=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678278607093 | 0 | 0.25 | ["pxfc00cxj1"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | ri3JWGzlcTjUmMLOs4XT | {"NO": 296.13406965667184, "YES": 3376.8488751036675} | 0 | uk-general-election-2024-will-the-l-f9oz2y28df | 3100 | UK General Election 2024 - Will the Labour manifesto include major electoral reform? | 1718313113477 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.814614021201173 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716972552775 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Labour Party manifesto is likely to be published in early to mid-June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it include any serious electoral reform? Any of the following would count as major and the market would resolve to YES if the manifesto promises these changes or a referendum on these changes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A change to the voting system within single member constituencies for Parliament (eg. AV, SV, any other form of transferable vote system)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A change to the voting system for Parliament which includes multi member constituencies, top ups or party lists (eg. Any form of PR)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Direct elections to the House of Lords (ie. voters vote for candidates or parties)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A change to allow \"direct democracy\" where citizens can force a binding referendum against the wishes of the government", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changing the voting age won't count for this market as it's covered here - ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "g5v3xQA0nTbfO67W6jZF", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-the-l"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following are the sort of things which wouldn't meet the threshold of \"major\" reform:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A relatively minor change to the franchise such as allowing EU citizens the same voting rights as Commonwealth citizens", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Removing the requirements for voter ID", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Changes to the way we elect local government positions (eg. reversing the changes which made the Mayoral elections FPTP rather than AV, changing the way councillors are elected)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the definition of major reform isn't clear, please ask about any other examples!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When it comes to electoral issues like this, it's significant for them to appear in the manifesto since the Salisbury Convention means that the Lords shouldn't block any policy that was in the governing party's manifesto. So if Labour include the policy in their manifesto and win the election, they should be able to pass this as law unless they choose to do a u-turn.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17360225947621785} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.15747876681695, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718313113477 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1718313199709 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716972553024}, {"name": "Voting reform", "slug": "voting-reform", "groupId": "4c0def48-7389-4cbb-a124-7c42cefae485", "createdTime": 1716972553022}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1716972553031}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1716972553052}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716972553033}] | ["uk", "voting-reform", "labour-party-uk", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718308704311 | 1718313198337 | 0.08 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | ttOlxazkn6jAxTHmCT0c | {"NO": 316.56171373883694, "YES": 3158.941705834317} | 0 | will-i-get-1-million-likes-on-my-ti | 2389.3275718024847 | Will I get 1 million likes on my tiktok account before June 14th 2024? | 1718319540000 | SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.787274547794786 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716973568602 | Fidel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The account is _", "type": "text"}, {"text": "thenerds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "_ on tiktok.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tiktok.com/@_thenerds_?_t=8mq40C9lt6v&_r=1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Me and 3 of my friends have a Tiktok account and we are pretty close to 1 million likes.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.15999999999999995} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.97410837751418, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718319593356 | 1000 | Fidell | 1718319540000 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715799485120 | 0 | [{"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1716973568887}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716973568902}] | ["tiktok", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718317588294 | 1718312645818 | 0.09 | SH00CK0vpLPWbrFnC4rk9xSackF3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | I1bJla3XBQSeytB7dCGB | {"NO": 113.43319287933264, "YES": 8815.761723852505} | 0 | uk-general-election-2024-will-there | 11666.950965070562 | UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is below 10 points? | 1720087200000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.856527859646235 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716976383524 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the campaign (JL Partners saying that Labour are 12 points ahead) as well as the largest lead (YouGov saying that Labour are 27 points ahead):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be a poll between now and the general election showing a single digit Labour lead?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if there is a poll released showing Labour with a lead of 9 points or less over the second placed party (whether that is the Conservative Party or not) or showing a party other than Labour in the lead.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to NO if the final pre-general election polls are released and Labour have led by 10 points or more in every single poll.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zyMxfC8icLZpe8Iya7wG", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there-yk246fcxcw"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Polling rules/clarifications:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve based on the poll's own headline rounding. I will not be looking at the underlying data to see if the result would have been different if it was not rounded to the nearest whole number.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where possible I will use the table at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.01270363049940568, "week": -0.2608371477481924, "month": -0.22000000000000042} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 138.09269196823962, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720175556606 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720087200000 | 0 | 45 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716976383846}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1716976383850}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1716976383853}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716976383864}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1716976383860}] | ["uk", "labour-party-uk", "uk-conservative-party", "uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720086019281 | 1717584235686 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | zyMxfC8icLZpe8Iya7wG | {"NO": 112.92928928260562, "YES": 8855.098675928937} | 0 | uk-general-election-2024-will-there-yk246fcxcw | 9466.438578280893 | UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is at least 30 points? | 1720087200000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.856271981028812 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716976488205 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the campaign (JL Partners saying that Labour are 12 points ahead) as well as the largest lead (YouGov saying that Labour are 27 points ahead):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be a poll between now and the general election showing a lead of 30 points or more?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if there is a poll released showing Labour with a lead of 30 points or more over the second placed party (whether that is the Conservative Party or not).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to NO if the final pre-general election polls are released and this has not happened.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "I1bJla3XBQSeytB7dCGB", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Polling rules/clarifications:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve based on the poll's own headline rounding. I will not be looking at the underlying data to see if the result would have been different if it was not rounded to the nearest whole number.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where possible I will use the table at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.012592432775709112, "week": -0.3719836687852877, "month": -0.44370457339801417} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 83.77808061674567, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720175548753 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720087200000 | 0 | 22 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716976489168}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1716976489166}, {"name": "Labour Party (UK)", "slug": "labour-party-uk", "groupId": "a35479ab-848a-4d47-bbcf-21224112466d", "createdTime": 1716976489178}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1716976489176}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716976489175}] | ["uk-politics", "uk-conservative-party", "labour-party-uk", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720085995921 | 0.01 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Qiiyu3NZPsL56Pq2XPCm | {"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066206} | 0 | will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-wsibqqnctj | 9303.244510171478 | Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 29 than it closed on May 28? | 1717012976929 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923073 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716982405172 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 57.04501814152813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717012976929 | 1000 | JimFix | 1717012976929 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1716982405428}, {"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716982405423}, {"name": "💵 Finance", "slug": "finance", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1716982405426}] | ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717012833226 | 0.01 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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xd5e50oYa75THNrWTcTj | how-many-seats-will-czech-pirate-pa | 18834.492344608167 | How many seats will Czech Pirate Party gain in European Elections 2024? | 1717970340000 | b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | uisjz045uz | public | 1716984669059 | Irigi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves to the number of seats the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Czech Pirate Party", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Pirate_Party", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will gain in the 2024 European Elections. 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It will be resolved using data from the CIA World Factbook as available on 31 December 2035.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, according to the CIA World Factbook consulted on 29 May 2024:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Israel (including the Golan Heights)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/israel/#people-and-society", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 9,402,617 inhabitants, 73.5% Jewish (2022 est.).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "West Bank (including Israeli settlements)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/west-bank/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 3,243,369 inhabitants, 12-14% Jewish (2012 est.).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gaza Strip", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/gaza-strip/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": 2,141,643 inhabitants, 0% Jewish (2012 est.).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Total: 14,787,629 inhabitants, 49.6% Jewish (using 13% for the West Bank).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note that estimates vary. For instance, Israeli demographer ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Arnon Soffer, a professor of geography at Haifa University, estimated the Jewish proportion in Israel and Palestine at between 46% and 47% in 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/jews-now-a-minority-in-israel-and-the-territories-demographer-says/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Combining various sources, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia gives, as of May 2024, the population of Israel/Palestine combined as 50.7% Jewish", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Palestine_(region)#Combined_demographics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". 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zV8ne3PjikV6usd6mDAT | will-openai-report-an-incident-toda-zpsicwv24d | 105418.88111581637 | Will OpenAI report an incident today? June 2024 | 1719838944949 | e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716988567040 | Walter Jr | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since I couldn't find any for June 2024...", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://status.openai.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://status.openai.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes/No will be determined by whether there is any lasting record of the incident, either in the color chart (mouse over individual days - sometimes there will be a \"Related\" which will count) or an entry ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on a particular day", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in the \"past incidents\" section. This may mean that I will need to wait for an incident to resolve to see on which day the lasting record is left (and all days impacted by the incident will be accounted)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1286.4793611198388, "platformFee": 286.47936111983887, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719838944949 | 7500 | WalterJr | 1719838944949 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKghitIn1qsZ01-R13d8NjmK1jaPP2HsRiylWatcB05Tz0=s96-c | 31 | 3 | DISABLED | [{"id": "c695czi5sn", "prob": 0.01, "text": "June 01", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.12594538148028, "userId": "e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2487.4685927665496, "textFts": "'01':2 'june':1", "contractId": "zV8ne3PjikV6usd6mDAT", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "e9jpvQqYz5XnCFUUzKfK1C127952", "createdTime": 1716988567040, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.23795413060823878}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T02:42:11.438", 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0.5000000000000001 | TCjm3GA2U8TgA4UnHPiw | {"NO": 599.020426841451, "YES": 1669.392152906799} | 0.26407031603921494 | will-openai-announce-any-more-corpo | 883 | Will OpenAI announce any more corporate ChatGPT reseller agreements before Sept 1st 2024, after deal with PwC? | 1725249540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611576630963288 | False | basic | public | 1716993000879 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 29th, OpenAI announced a partnership with PwC to be a ChatGPT corporate reseller, targeting ~100,000 corporate customers.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://x.com/Techmeme/status/1795744582409617703", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/Techmeme/status/1795744582409617703", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMeupzx1yPK.23?alt=media&token=bceee2d1-0e8d-4e90-a3c8-a4eb6e0da66f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/pwc-partners-openai-to-largest-chatgpt-enterprise-customer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/pwc-partners-openai-to-largest-chatgpt-enterprise-customer", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will OpenAI public announce any more similar deals by Sept 1st 2024? To qualify the deal should be of similar size -- 100,000 projected users or similar, and involve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "paid", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ChatGPT subscriptions, not free users. A partnership with Apple, Google or another consumer tech company does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.327685657916227, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1717100914560 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716993001136}, {"name": "AI Regulation", "slug": "ai-regulation", "groupId": "OGLYAD1HuqANuck9D9kY", "createdTime": 1716993001140}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1716993001173}] | ["openai", "ai-regulation", "chatgpt"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717100911151 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | axeokfR7CbgCDdpge8Jy | {"NO": 953.8819365450188, "YES": 1048.3477689304211} | 0.4764098414564849 | will-discord-launch-a-clip-service-1mynggb0qd | 50 | Will Discord launch a clip service before the end of 2025? | 1735718340000 | SfH0WteH4na7JfryESSfXXcIIRB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570679451372035 | False | basic | public | 1716999651868 | Mark Henry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A clip service such as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "medal.tv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://medal.tv", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " or NVIDIA's ShadowPlay allows you to capture short gameplay recordings and share them via URL.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6522310695789, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarkHenry | 1717002826581 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6k2oH1-PyZO_VflpQEuiAO0UNCE-48MQhwCBTUV8Y=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1671859008187 | 0 | [{"name": "Video Games", "slug": "video-games", "groupId": "9FaZmHrfS8IcDJyu6pUD", "createdTime": 1716999652146}] | ["video-games"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717002822972 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | LJR2dyc5ByJWo37RS1ZB | {"NO": 1154.972434600663, "YES": 865.8215296244325} | 0.571543885743718 | will-wrexham-promote-to-the-champio | 160 | Will Wrexham promote to the Championship by 2030? | 1875308340000 | biJAK5HhSRS5QD3X4ODnNgEWhRr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.573558827684632 | False | basic | public | 1717000572176 | Daisy W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“yes” if they promote to the Championship by the end of the 2029 season. “No” if not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, it doesn’t matter if Wrexham or the Championship change their name. If Wrexham ceases to exist as a football club this market will resolve “no” at that time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they promote the market will resolve “yes” at that time, regardless of if they later get demoted.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.027565399337122, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DaisyWelham | 1717066717650 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1705674736043 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1717000572432}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717000572438}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717000572468}] | ["football", "uk-politics", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717033306497 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 5WwGonc9E6wzmL9O8N6e | {"NO": 1048.3477689304211, "YES": 953.8819365450188} | 0.5235901585435151 | will-annual-uk-debt-interest-paymen | 50 | Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028? | 1861919940000 | Zz3GS8J8MXR3U84VxvFkUGl4ukJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57067945137204 | False | basic | public | 1717004864850 | Fedor Shabashev | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predicts whether annual UK debt interest payments will exceed 20% of the government's budget revenue by the year 2028.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The UK government budget includes various expenditures, with interest payments on the national debt being a significant component. As the national debt grows and interest rates fluctuate, the proportion of the budget allocated to interest payments can change. This question aims to assess the sustainability of the UK’s fiscal policies and the potential financial pressures on the government budget.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Key Factors:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "National Debt Levels:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The total amount of debt held by the UK government, which has been rising significantly over recent years.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Interest Rates:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Rates at which the government borrows money, influenced by Bank of England policies and global economic conditions. Higher rates increase the cost of servicing debt.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Government Revenue:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The total income the government receives, primarily from taxes. Revenue growth depends on economic performance, tax policies, and other factors.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Economic Growth:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Higher economic growth can increase government revenue, potentially reducing the proportion of the budget spent on interest.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fiscal Policies:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Government decisions on spending, taxation, and borrowing which can impact both revenue and debt levels.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Importance:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " If interest payments consume a larger share of the budget, it could limit the government's ability to fund other priorities such as healthcare, education, and social services. 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0.5000000000000006 | cNFd1y1J8PgOJllEy4uJ | {"NO": 1182.4224899824474, "YES": 845.7213969389612} | 0.5830072006268202 | will-magnus-carlsen-drop-below-2800 | 502 | Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026? | 1767308340000 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57469768743407 | False | basic | public | 1717016829367 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rating graph:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJYfqIFVRpj.png?alt=media&token=0d48a1a5-80a4-4b83-b07f-8736da730288", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current live ratings: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://2700chess.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://2700chess.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He is currently at 2822. He was never below 2800 for 10+ years. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only classical FIDE live rating is taken into account.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01993297735585864} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 16.356246981239188, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Weezing | 1719535647410 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717016829671}, {"name": "Board Games", "slug": "board-games", "groupId": "Hu6z8BYs5Xz3ZRyai8MF", "createdTime": 1717016829674}, {"name": "♟️ Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1717016829673}, {"name": "Magnus Carlsen", "slug": "magnus-carlsen", "groupId": "1xNFPjuIXk4vsCBJX3Jy", "createdTime": 1717016829688}] | ["sports-default", "board-games", "chess", "magnus-carlsen"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719535643842 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D | how-many-manifest-attendees-will-i | 5392.969691831199 | How many Manifest attendees will I see at contra on the 6th? | 1717738467852 | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 4wh0g5820c | public | 1717016858751 | Daniel Filan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Contra is a fun, lively dance form that doesn't require you to be very physically coordinated or not autistic - think kinda like square dance, but easier. There's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a contra dance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://bacds.org/series/contra/berkeley_wed/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on the Thursday before Manifest - the beginner's lesson starts at 7:30 pm, and it's being held at 2138 Cedar St. Cost is $6-20 depending on income.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How many Manifest attendees will I see there?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll only be counting people if I talk (at least briefly) to them and end up believing that they're a Manifest attendee. I'm not counting myself.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I plan to attend, but if I'm unable to come, the answer is 0.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 49.473105877705045, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717738467852 | 1250 | DanielFilan | 1717738485665 | 0 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4wh0g5820c", "prob": 0.6838766553061121, "text": "0-1", "index": 0, "poolNo": 459.6323915727349, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 212.4659875816135, "textFts": "'-1':2 '0':1", "contractId": "cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D", "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "createdTime": 1717016858751, "probChanges": {"day": 0.15677697490351838, "week": 0.15677697490351838, "month": 0.11483144317409955}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T07:00:58.799", "probChangeDay": 0.15677697490351838, "probChangeWeek": 0.15677697490351838, "resolutionTime": 1717738467852, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": 0.11483144317409955}, {"id": "020o0212ft", "prob": 0.1012372965920997, "text": "2-3", "index": 1, "poolNo": 104.88122963793876, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 931.1127485549107, "textFts": "'-3':2 '2':1", "contractId": "cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D", "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "createdTime": 1717016858751, "probChanges": {"day": 0.22443449135355528, "week": 0.22443449135355528, "month": 0.26342048382110544}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T07:00:58.796", "probChangeDay": 0.22443449135355528, "probChangeWeek": 0.22443449135355528, "resolutionTime": 1717738467852, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": 0.26342048382110544}, {"id": "l25acj7s78", "prob": 0.05018223460865249, "text": "4-5", "index": 2, "poolNo": 71.82983614499608, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1359.5499480587764, "textFts": "'-5':2 '4':1", "contractId": "cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D", "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "createdTime": 1717016858751, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17070531064034905, "week": -0.17070531064034905, "month": -0.06}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T07:00:58.797", "probChangeDay": -0.17070531064034905, "probChangeWeek": -0.17070531064034905, "resolutionTime": 1717738467852, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": -0.06}, {"id": "lmwnk66uzo", "prob": 0.09844504745159646, "text": "6-10", "index": 3, "poolNo": 103.26445475710523, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 945.6908500577802, "textFts": "'-10':2 '6':1", "contractId": "cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D", "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "createdTime": 1717016858751, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1507370406424346, "week": -0.1507370406424346, "month": -0.15306039576345926}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T07:00:58.796", "probChangeDay": -0.1507370406424346, "probChangeWeek": -0.1507370406424346, "resolutionTime": 1717738467852, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": -0.15306039576345926}, {"id": "j013z4sdvy", "prob": 0.06625876604153932, "text": "11+", "index": 4, "poolNo": 83.24505118211698, "userId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1173.1177843395785, "textFts": "'11':1", "contractId": "cRUeKdYm3bZPgjlS3f6D", "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "createdTime": 1717016858751, "probChanges": {"day": -0.059769114974289904, "week": -0.059769114974289904, "month": -0.16519153123174576}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T07:00:58.796", "probChangeDay": -0.059769114974289904, "probChangeWeek": -0.059769114974289904, "resolutionTime": 1717738467852, "totalLiquidity": 312.5, "probChangeMonth": -0.16519153123174576}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644858977426 | 0 | [{"name": "Dance", "slug": "dance", "groupId": "50e21df7-791b-4cf4-8588-2db4dad4941c", "createdTime": 1717016859119}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717016859120}] | ["dance", "manifest"] | 0.25 | 1717738425576 | 1717738484625 | {"4wh0g5820c": 100} | yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000031 | QeE1MTQWCHnR68dDFMWu | {"NO": 4741.169944145817, "YES": 210.91840448257835} | 0.9574081903161128 | will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal | 16184.28223081282 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the EURO 2024? | 1719784740000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.918391225403974 | False | basic | public | 1717018460887 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if Cristiano Ronaldo scores at least one goal on EURO 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Goals from penalty shootouts do not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1713075160108962144"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.02938440390408814, "month": 0.3582916127243142} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 163.4250340963279, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | itsTomekK | 1720216195639 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 29 | 9 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1658666303973 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽️🤫 Football Rumors", "slug": "football-rumors", "groupId": "eHjingXNejUbQTM9MljG", "createdTime": 1717018461146}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1717018461149}] | ["football-rumors", "uefa"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719784655373 | 1720216194699 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13999999999999999 | nQtXESQlftOHP8rHBOSB | {"NO": 1141.2093931061127, "YES": 444.2351572788279} | 0.2948798617304671 | will-miri-2024-communications-strat | 591 | Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.833140161816726 | False | basic | public | 1717019164638 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tKk37BFkMzchtZThx/miri-2024-communications-strategy", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.02898333620892407, "month": -0.02898333620892407} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.39605816720452, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719890458800 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717019165120}, {"name": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute", "slug": "machine-intelligence-research-insti", "groupId": "ac808a3a-62c0-4d2e-b9fb-f8ab9c31af4c", "createdTime": 1717023248922}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717023251519}, {"name": "AI risk", "slug": "ai-risk", "groupId": "KIhsoJW7X87JwWSgB3Vt", "createdTime": 1717023259788}, {"name": "Existential Risk", "slug": "existential-risk", "groupId": "iYAqK70zopnAZFdQtjS5", "createdTime": 1717023270779}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "machine-intelligence-research-insti", "ai", "ai-risk", "existential-risk"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719890455673 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SXdbvoWvxo3YMJq7cmF2 | how-much-will-usd-to-mxn-trade-at-t | 23125.92105047775 | How much will USD to MXN trade at the end of June? | 1719810872859 | XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.249273434016153 | True | plus | cs3q5822t7 | public | 1717019171594 | Kirby Iwaki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the exchange from US Dollars to Mexican Pesos on the 30th of June, 23:59 UTC?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-MXN", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-MXN", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to resolve, rounded to one digit (e.g. now it's at $16.9788, so it would resolve to $17.0). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "591fc76e-d1c0-4956-97a0-1c89f9794106", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-MXN", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "USD/MXN Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest United States Dollar to Mexican Peso (USD / MXN) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | NUMBER | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1136.266055860349, "platformFee": 60.78597678485348, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719810872859 | 10000 | kirby | 1719810872859 | 0 | 8 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "v5z2gp7c0j", "prob": 0.0009976888586997307, "text": "14-14.2", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.301834784904486, "userId": "XjZDo9HbYibD09TgOGQad0c1X2X2", "isOther": 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0.4999999999999999 | VRYukX0NtpZRZIMfclae | {"NO": 303.7272552246746, "YES": 3292.427606670597} | 0 | will-there-be-another-patreon-exclu | 6731.809927890924 | Will there be another Patreon Exclusive Stream for the Anything Else Podcast by the end of June 2024? | 1719817140000 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.804021848081401 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717024876789 | Punished Furry | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Patreon exclusive streams have not been received well by the community. Will there be another one by the end of June 2024? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These are some reactions to the last one that was done on 5/26/24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRW-OT6eNMQ.png?alt=media&token=cdd0fc36-e966-456c-97eb-76f642795df3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcrAno-8scB.png?alt=media&token=8992ade5-99a3-4ef2-95a7-f8de7bea9ff5", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkPF8ThXJjx.png?alt=media&token=c6600334-1767-4888-8879-f745f00f27b5", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_i_gTBvjkw.png?alt=media&token=99b23018-cfe0-431f-ad0c-ef04a1ff7855", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also Destiny and Dan are going on an Israel trip for 2 weeks at the start of June.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.23417435890050853, "month": -0.6610940639374155} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 153.7608067964106, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719858264143 | 1000 | PunishedFurry | 1719817140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 15 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1666746014983 | 0 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1717024877035}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717024877040}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717024877042}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717024877043}] | ["destinygg", "politics-default", "culture-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719751634687 | 1717036686781 | 0.08 | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | gcv4PlEryU4qwn9QuMgN | {"NO": 10077.315838180662, "YES": 9980.921253929977} | 0.5024028678045839 | liquidityyyy-10k | 50 | liquidityyyy 10k | 1717032033732 | GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7206231615000798 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1717031425356 | Inga Wei | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6868954844655288, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717032043583 | 19000 | IngaWei | 1717032033732 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656622870491 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717031727650 | 0.5 | GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999845 | GPNnE6JjonPpM1jJJPRF | {"NO": 9483.794268265585, "YES": 105.4430296264627} | 1 | first-crystal-market-in-june | 10467.728286936184 | First Crystal Market in June? | 1717733478484 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.85238282377025 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717032222009 | Bayesian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0cy_YwbM2V.png?alt=media&token=dba9edcb-09d4-40a5-93b4-678a0721aceb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will someone create the first crystal market that starts with 1M mana in liquidity, in June? It also counts if it starts with 1M subsidy and drizzles it upon market creation. It counts if the user is a staff, or manifold. If the first crystal market is created in may in every timezone, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.6559956442075952} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 106.91017201297817, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717733478484 | 1000 | Bayesian | 1717733478484 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1656040913178 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717032222269}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717032222348}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717032222350}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717733308141 | 1717733163959 | 0.99 | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5428744129322087 | 3Xjyd47jqdaAYnCJqvTG | {"NO": 3120.187729045067, "YES": 2433.2467676254055} | 0.6036235938707057 | first-crystal-tier-market-in-2024 | 400 | First Crystal Tier Market in 2024? | 1717033492448 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.173612337403984 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1717033046755 | JRP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES immediately when someone creates a Crystal tier market in 2024 (which currently costs 1 million Mana to make).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no such market is created before January 1, 2025 (UTC time) or Manifold entirely scraps the tier system for creating questions (minor modifications don't alter the outcome, see below).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Important edge cases:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market if Manifold alters the tier system prices, any questions created with a tier that has a creation cost of between 500k Mana and 2M Mana, inclusive, will be considered equivalent to the \"Crystal tier\" market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any changes to the tier name will not be considered consequential (only the creation cost).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.78661387789106, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717033492448 | 10000 | parhizj | 1717033609189 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1684698640145 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717033047087}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717033047084}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717033359795 | 1717033607741 | 0.6 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999695 | 0EEABS6WKPDhwBfFcu61 | {"NO": 9949.874371066213, "YES": 100.50378152592134} | 1 | first-crystal-tier-market-in-2024-ulki0vqvcs | 23686.99964156255 | First Crystal Tier Market in 2024? | 1717758849284 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923052 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717033558970 | JRP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES immediately when someone creates a Crystal tier market in 2024 (which currently costs 1 million Mana to make).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no such market is created before January 1, 2025 (UTC time) or Manifold entirely scraps the tier system for creating questions (minor modifications don't alter the outcome, see below).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Important edge cases:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market if Manifold alters the tier system prices, any questions created with a tier that has a creation cost of between 500k Mana and 2M Mana, inclusive, will be considered equivalent to the \"Crystal tier\" market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any changes to the tier name will not be considered consequential (only the creation cost).", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.3100000000000003} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 285.4512724344361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717758849284 | 1000 | parhizj | 1717758849284 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1684698640145 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717033559217}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1717033559225}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717745336282 | 1717733121458 | 0.99 | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | XrIbNfM9iiuhRzACE8fC | {"NO": 1423.498946930392, "YES": 702.4943728665123} | 0.6695688710190204 | will-a-1-cent-coin-be-issued-by-the | 6849.226914432639 | Will a 1 cent coin be issued by the US government in 2030? | 1924945140000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.589798258029996 | False | basic | public | 1717038653527 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.06786366748626849} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 178.39166046958925, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1717979351423 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644447319203 | 0 | [{"name": "2030", "slug": "2030", "groupId": "ff8e3bd3-f04e-4b32-a7db-69a0ba6a72ab", "createdTime": 1717038653787}, {"name": "Money", "slug": "money", "groupId": "Sh8C5Y6hkvLT7jyyLRX8", "createdTime": 1717038653774}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1717038653786}, {"name": "Currency", "slug": "currency", "groupId": "9dU059eOFc5Mgw9iSO8N", "createdTime": 1717038653789}] | ["2030", "money", "united-states", "currency"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717979348313 | 1717098560449 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | Vkn3Z4Z5rmiv0SclSlYs | {"NO": 975.3588749782508, "YES": 1025.2636497743442} | 1 | game-5-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da | 1530.8550828807959 | (Game 5) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on May 31 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs) | 1717201800000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570429978676984 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717040243330 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on May 31", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Oilers+vs+Stars#sie=m;/g/11vzvv6k7t;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 7:30pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7:30pm CST on May 31", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.40612944827197, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717212132516 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1717201800000 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1717040243780}, {"name": "Hockey", "slug": "hockey", "groupId": "tYP9jmPPjoX29KfzE4l5", "createdTime": 1717040243808}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717040243809}, {"name": "Sports Betting", "slug": "sports-betting", "groupId": "b3ll9Ch9rdbcrTRAbjUf", "createdTime": 1717040243806}, {"name": "NHL 🏒", "slug": "nhl", "groupId": "lccgApXa1l7O5ZH3XfhH", "createdTime": 1717040243815}] | ["sports-default", "hockey", "culture-default", "sports-betting", "nhl"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717201544576 | 1717193798110 | 0.49 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | YBrWo0qxVdoTfu0AzoOq | {"NO": 1020.2040612204048, "YES": 980.1960588196083} | 0 | daily-coinflip-u9uchxy9cq | 13034.643381753891 | Daily coinflip | 1717214340000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57039545373802 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717042021928 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 157)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 79 heads vs 77 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5099999999999998} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 165.65561380057252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717300674946 | 1000 | Traveel | 1717214340000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | [{"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 1717042022183}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1717042022188}, {"name": "Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1717042023861}, {"name": "Unsubsidized", "slug": "unsubsidized", "groupId": "f08f4130-3410-4030-9bf5-f675e5035e9c", "createdTime": 1717042024167}] | ["nonpredictive-profits", "fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1717202360721 | 1717295132811 | 0.51 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 |
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