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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5000000000000003 | poXj2r4HOqAmeM35MJKH | {"NO": 840.0102796928769, "YES": 1190.4616219287427} | 0.4137019965762689 | will-openphil-think-it-is-better-to | 771.5037564677002 | Will OpenPhil think it's better to spend mana creating EA prediction markets at $1 rather than donate it to EA LTFF? | 1717801140000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575058275607853 | False | basic | public | 1716795654890 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I email them about it, will the Open Philanthropy (OpenPhil) team think it is more positively impactful for me to spend mana creating prediction markets about Effective Altruism (EA) cause areas, like those I have created previously, at ~$1 each, rather than donating it to the EA Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) via Manifold Charity?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the past, EA LTFF have given a grant to the founders of Manifold (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), and have also been one of the largest donation recipients via Manifold Charity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fd85sXYu3FE.png?alt=media&token=6d87a3e8-7b46-4e82-bb44-0f15db43c382", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhNPU_1_CfO.png?alt=media&token=12255c26-a7db-40c2-b176-d12d7192121e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "OpenPhil have forecasting as a focus area, and have given grants to Metaculus before, but seemingly not to Manifold (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/forecasting/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/forecasting/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). Therefore, they should hopefully be a more unbiased 3rd party.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.09044644762194326} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.33260841670541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1717797734034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1716795688103}, {"name": "Open Philanthropy", "slug": "open-philanthropy", "groupId": "b01e0b0a-6e7f-4eb9-a6e8-ab0a821515b0", "createdTime": 1716795703093}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1716795721872}, {"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1716795733912}, {"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1716795771162}] | ["effective-altruism", "open-philanthropy", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-for-charity", "mana"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717797730924 | 1717681492264 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG | who-will-form-the-uk-government-aft | 11996.351933305668 | UK General Election: What form will the next government take? | 1720825140000 | HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716795657051 | Mike H | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For coalitions involving >2 parties (eg Labour + SNP + Green) any answer which includes the relevant parties (eg \"Labour + SNP\" or \"Labour + Green\") will resolve to YES. However the largest party (in this case Labour) must be in the answer for it to resolve positively. For instance, \"SNP + Green coalition\" would resolve to NO if Labour is the largest party in the coalition.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Confidence & Supply Agreements =/= Coalitions", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.41603070650493, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | MikeH | 1720160616916 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6 | 28 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3ef61f34c721", "prob": 0.9852829943952379, "text": "Labour majority", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2045.5531794269586, "userId": "HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.554082205532637, "textFts": "'labour':1 'major':2", "contractId": "lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG", "createdTime": 1716795657051, "probChanges": {"day": 0.012781854665109504, "week": 0.04011645772681216, "month": 0.06685388527319924}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:12.645", "probChangeDay": 0.012781854665109504, "probChangeWeek": 0.04011645772681216, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.06685388527319924}, {"id": "934bf50aaa97", "prob": 0.01646467235356283, "text": "Conservative majority", "index": 1, "poolNo": 32.34607379542433, "userId": "HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1932.2283253073242, "textFts": "'conserv':1 'major':2", "contractId": "lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG", "createdTime": 1716795657051, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.005575962588385892, "month": -0.029032151853561016}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T08:42:04.522", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.005575962588385892, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.029032151853561016}, {"id": "8f562845d729", "prob": 0.015517285760979282, "text": "Labour + SNP coalition", "index": 2, "poolNo": 31.38656874145508, "userId": "HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1991.297631634726, "textFts": "'coalit':3 'labour':1 'snp':2", "contractId": "lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG", "createdTime": 1716795657051, "probChanges": {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.0065135857206095014, "month": -0.035207801094444435}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T11:22:07.495", "probChangeDay": 6.938893903907228e-18, "probChangeWeek": -0.0065135857206095014, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.035207801094444435}, {"id": "fc7cd1c0c205", "prob": 0.011944980622841194, "text": "Absolute monarchy restored", "index": 3, "poolNo": 27.487938411457833, "userId": "HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2273.7245356293447, "textFts": "'absolut':1 'monarchi':2 'restor':3", "contractId": "lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG", "createdTime": 1716795657051, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0075224452836139145}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T11:22:07.497", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.0075224452836139145}, {"id": "8448c7eec40f", "prob": 0.015712616693064885, "text": "Labour minority with or without Confidence & Supply Agreement with another party", "index": 4, "poolNo": 31.586631045079542, "userId": "HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1978.685220047744, "textFts": "'agreement':8 'anoth':10 'confid':6 'labour':1 'minor':2 'parti':11 'suppli':7 'without':5", "contractId": "lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG", "createdTime": 1716795657051, "probChanges": {"day": -0.009692183499642116, "week": -0.031120598864775296, "month": -0.07994718200197734}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T18:21:05.476", "probChangeDay": -0.009692183499642116, "probChangeWeek": -0.031120598864775296, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.07994718200197734}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696786983018 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716795657350}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716795657355}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1716795657368}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716806542924}] | ["uk-politics", "uk", "-uk-general-election-2024", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1720160613765 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 0HKLisFADmDOWUHL1Pa0 | {"NO": 345.5334186207552, "YES": 2894.0760751641315} | 0.10665897210254899 | will-the-uk-introduce-national-serv | 2812.6302548279145 | Will the UK introduce National Service before 2028? | 1830383940000 | HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.607229483994166 | False | basic | public | 1716796377043 | Mike H | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Conservative party has proposed the introduction of national service in the UK. Will this be implemented on broadly the proposed lines before 1 January 2028?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c988jdxl02vo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c988jdxl02vo", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.94881923074021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikeH | 1717310838093 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696786983018 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716796377319}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716796377317}] | ["uk-politics", "uk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717310834967 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | fSEVTsWwt1uBR1rgPhLq | {"NO": 938.991817173486, "YES": 1064.9720069022096} | 0.4685672495143894 | will-the-sec-sue-or-settle-with-cai | 534.2019418949207 | Will the SEC sue or settle with Caitlyn Jenner? | 1764543540000 | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571247572535864 | False | basic | public | 1716796848529 | Fedor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caitlyn Jenner launched a new $JENNER coin yesterday. A very typical pump and dump celebrity coin.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some promises/allusions were made about the crypto coin hitting certain targets. As this is a high profile person, will the SEC not just investigate, but launch some sort of settlement or sue/issue a fine to Caitlyn Jenner or the organisation that launched this crypto coin before the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES upon a fine/settlement happening, resolves NO at the end of Nov 2025, or if the SEC somehow indicates they will not pursue this.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.307246340495265, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Fedor | 1717083891028 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678129247577 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1716796848775}, {"name": "SEC", "slug": "sec", "groupId": "fced6b02-8033-4522-bfae-c3b9c0f9744d", "createdTime": 1716796848779}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1716796848784}] | ["crypto-speculation", "sec", "twitter"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717083887636 | 1716803880415 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 8aDxN1EWr6XbapMxoHTG | {"NO": 1057.0587127124247, "YES": 946.0212455313751} | 0.5277166836810654 | will-the-icc-prosecute-a-us-citizen | 59 | Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035? | 2056571940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57081141833429 | False | basic | public | 1716799002477 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the International Criminal Court (ICC) formally charges a US citizen with international war crimes before January 1, 2035.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Formal Charges:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The US citizen must be officially charged by the International Criminal Court (ICC) with one or more crimes recognized as international war crimes.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International War Crimes:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The charges must relate to actions that are classified as international war crimes, including but not limited to genocide, crimes against humanity, or serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflict.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The prosecution must be verifiable through credible international sources such as official ICC statements, indictments, or reputable global news outlets such as the BBC, Al Jazeera, or Reuters. Additionally, confirmation from international organizations like the United Nations can serve as verification.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: The United States has had a contentious relationship with the ICC, particularly regarding allegations of war crimes committed by US soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Trump administration imposed sanctions against ICC officials in response to investigations into these allegations.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.013896849475911743, "month": 0.013896849475911743} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.941287287575323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912509427 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "International Criminal Court", "slug": "international-criminal-court", "groupId": "80a3fa11-0079-4360-bfe2-2f0dfa01f36e", "createdTime": 1716799002734}, {"name": "Justice", "slug": "justice", "groupId": "1efab6ef-de22-4cb9-b01b-dfccf3407bb7", "createdTime": 1716799002746}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "united-states", "groupId": "5ba769e7-dd37-49d0-bdf2-9f1803f6872e", "createdTime": 1716799002743}, {"name": "Institutions", "slug": "institutions", "groupId": "c11b0b43-ae50-4292-bfb5-a1cbc8214da2", "createdTime": 1716799002744}, {"name": "International Law", "slug": "international-law", "groupId": "57c42843-34c0-4f4e-8057-9fd81108fe8a", "createdTime": 1716799002753}] | ["international-criminal-court", "justice", "united-states", "institutions", "international-law"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912506352 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | ReZ7dwhzJT61q5aX2MMu | {"NO": 655.6901007284788, "YES": 1525.1107175310235} | 0.30066482699313457 | will-there-be-concentration-camps-i | 946.0041296347846 | Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040? | 2214597540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599413769338355 | False | basic | public | 1716799302289 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if credible reports confirm the existence of concentration camps in Taiwan before January 1, 2040.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of Concentration Camps:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " For the purposes of this market, concentration camps are defined as facilities where individuals are detained in large numbers without due process, often based on ethnicity, religion, political beliefs, or other discriminatory criteria, and where conditions involve deprivation of human rights, including forced labor, or physical and psychological abuse.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The existence of concentration camps must be verified through credible international sources, such as reports from human rights organizations (e.g., Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch), reputable global news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters), or official statements from recognized international bodies like the United Nations.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: The concept of concentration camps is associated with human rights abuses and violations of international law. This market seeks to evaluate the likelihood of such measures being implemented in Taiwan, a country with a complex geopolitical situation and significant tensions with the People's Republic of China.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.008241218570340492, "month": -0.02261588337255216} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.119476937533147, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912501260 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1716799302538}, {"name": "Totalitarianism", "slug": "totalitarianism", "groupId": "7f5bb0e5-47cb-4b2e-9d29-836c4433bfc5", "createdTime": 1716799302543}, {"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "groupId": "2b786f84-e655-456c-b6f9-4022ee9873a3", "createdTime": 1716799302542}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1716799302541}, {"name": "Concentration Camps", "slug": "concentration-camps", "groupId": "11fda0fb-d1cf-42ef-86ad-6046530a5cb6", "createdTime": 1716799302546}] | ["taiwan", "totalitarianism", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "china", "concentration-camps"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912497324 | 1717259970412 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999999 | 412JVmCctpTbagEEjCvD | {"NO": 3615.5592491615516, "YES": 276.5823849330917} | 1 | does-anyone-attempt-to-climb-the-wa | 2844.4658323854023 | Does anyone attempt to climb The Water Cone today? | 1716848527086 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.844526517539633 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716811387250 | April | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I suppose I'll count it if it's a random passerby rather than a meetup attendee, as long as I hear about it having happened.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It can't just be getting in the water to scope it out, there has to be an honest attempt to move upwards on the cone.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.9749184530458, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716848527086 | 1000 | April | 1716848527086 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644451915684 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716848460727 | 0.93 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | VgmKNi8s7nKn8CgsIRkl | {"NO": 173.82752419693497, "YES": 5752.8288722968155} | 0 | will-haitian-gang-lord-vitelhomme-i | 4825.633051544903 | Will Haitian gang lord Vitel’homme Innocent be detained by authorities by July? | 1719813540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.883091267054635 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716813629871 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by this viral tweet about ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Vitel’homme Innocent", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitel'Homme_Innocent?wprov=sfti1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1794729851766911451"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Authorities may include Haitian or other international authorities. Resolves to credible reports by reputable sources (NYT, AP, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FBI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/vitelhomme-innocent/@@download.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", etc.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Captured” = captured alive.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“July” = July 2024 EDT", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.24960307311317323, "month": -0.24960307311317323} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.03229688665923, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719835558789 | 1000 | dglid | 1719813540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 18 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "Haiti", "slug": "haiti", "groupId": "f0a5e370-beb6-4116-8c4f-1194f9b10b98", "createdTime": 1716813630315}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716813630309}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1716813630317}, {"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716813630310}] | ["haiti", "politics-default", "world-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719811990693 | 0.03 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | OKGWH1fJJpYFuriYbY82 | {"NO": 1406.080553619042, "YES": 123.25214155157977} | 0.6499999999999999 | will-truthseeking-is-the-ground-in | 423.7161337329394 | Will "Truthseeking is the ground in which other pri..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.739274292648632 | False | basic | public | 1716814876190 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Truthseeking is the ground in which other principles grow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbnJHpapusMJZb6Gs/truthseeking-is-the-ground-in-which-other-principles-grow", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.20873082338524102, "week": 0.34139161333822454, "month": 0.3539154382034502} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.635580113897657, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 163.7161337329394 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720207769526 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716814876479}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720207766426 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 9Y7Sicl5EU3oAspEpWur | {"NO": 7710.237452121404, "YES": 129.69769170012478} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-30fdee03a848 | 8036.842516508356 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 28 than it closed on May 25? | 1716926504845 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.8644270178939 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716815472991 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.63940609541633, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716926504845 | 1000 | JimFix | 1716926504845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716926476631 | 0.98 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dSPraXH3NxtQMHqATJO1 | which-is-preferable-enslavement-due | 0 | Which is preferable: enslavement due to proprietary AI or civilizational collapse due to open source AI? | 1735707540000 | 1g8P6pHRRLg4kaRxAMKyCCXn2mb2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1716815636910 | NBAP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assume that there are only two possible outcomes to continued AI development:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some company/government develops a sufficiently powerful AI and becomes a singleton, forever cementing its power over humanity.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some sufficiently powerful open source model is used to kill a majority of people on Earth and to cause widespread civilizational collapse.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which of these possible outcomes do you regard as preferable?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | NBAP | 1716828734378 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNBAP%2FqpSlMKH-74.57?alt=media&token=115d6799-daaf-47c9-8a52-f318b0a9688e | 116 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1685661001561 | 0 | [{"name": "AI risk", "slug": "ai-risk", "groupId": "KIhsoJW7X87JwWSgB3Vt", "createdTime": 1716815637159}, {"name": "AI Doom", "slug": "ai-doom", "groupId": "UIAZgEDhRk62eZLK9SXB", "createdTime": 1716815637161}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716815637177}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1716815637165}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1716815637178}] | ["ai-risk", "ai-doom", "ai", "ai-impacts", "ai-safety"] | 0.25 | 1716828732393 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | E5KXCuWevNyMYvCNTp8T | {"NO": 177.89021155027854, "YES": 5621.444773634226} | 0 | will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-ea85264950fb | 4749 | Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 31 than it closed on May 25? | 1717477140000 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.884651382010679 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716815737721 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.030674243168351652} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.32864115160126, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717502879711 | 1000 | JimFix | 1717477140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717476140607 | 1717454665687 | 0.03 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ecePkQroyoH6F6zgyqYn | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-sumthreshold-attacks-make-the-dea7bc912ddf | 0 | Will "Sum-threshold attacks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | basic | public | 1716816576126 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sum-threshold attacks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R3eDrDoX8LisKgGZe/sum-threshold-attacks", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1716816576394 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716816576394}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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SHpuVP9I8ClsuKcFKzpF | which-of-the-following-will-be-ment | 33237.06891550651 | UK General Election: What will happen in the first televised debate between the candidates for PM? (Add your answer) | 1717661777663 | HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.230552964153285 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1716817402171 | Mike H | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will relate to the first debate which includes both (but not necessarily exclusively) Rishi Sunak and Kier Starmer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to add your own answers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will resolve to YES for things which are clearly directly referenced even if using different terms (eg NHS = National Health Service, Trump = President Trump). 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0.5 | pLTN4E5nxG5bgbI1tW7f | {"NO": 1180.2795947316417, "YES": 847.2568741030965} | 0.5821249643958166 | will-udm14-still-work-on-october-1 | 210 | Will &udm=14 still work on October 1, 2024? | 1727852340000 | TQFvxxrg3pZHolxORYGuXMviLpu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574603593306746 | False | basic | public | 1716823823817 | Don Marti | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as \"yes\" if (as tested from California, USA) the web site ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://udm14.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://udm14.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is working substantially the same on October 1, 2024 as today, if another site with substantially similar functionality to remove AI-generated material from search results is available, or if a browser extension with substantially similar functionality is available from a major browser extension directory/store.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question will resolve to \"no\" if no such site or extension is available on that date, whether because of removal of the \"Web\" search option by Google or other reasons.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.577572506984631, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DonMarti | 1716839687222 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwXw2ULTsfatX87PlPmy73SXBi7vm-CQWs90-D3=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641223859737 | 0 | [{"name": "enshittification", "slug": "enshittification", "groupId": "bdd2c526-064f-4872-9212-db08e560e7ab", "createdTime": 1716823824147}, {"name": "SEO", "slug": "seo", "groupId": "950264ff-2c50-4b6f-a3da-9f0c570d0098", "createdTime": 1716823824162}] | ["enshittification", "seo"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716839683647 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | uUWAiupC1L2GTS0aghpv | {"NO": 794.878247181537, "YES": 1258.0543039714319} | 0.3871916039010232 | will-tesla-deliver-a-low-cost-car-b | 553.538767852335 | Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035? | 2051251140000 | R1FYWUk3bveksTL1k9kJCmuJjey1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57846593270796 | False | basic | public | 1716824165609 | zaperrer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Low cost for this market is MSRP <= $25,000.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delivery must be a full production model to a normal customer. Delivery of pre-production models or to a limited group of people does not qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.530573544144705, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | zaperrer | 1720121522053 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1681846792957 | 0 | [{"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1716824165859}, {"name": "Electric Vehicles", "slug": "electric-vehicles", "groupId": "d446b2a7-547c-4650-95e9-e0ff79ce883e", "createdTime": 1716824165862}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1716824165869}, {"name": "Automotive", "slug": "automotive", "groupId": "dNh5aQXlwLm4uCesYIti", "createdTime": 1716824165870}, {"name": "Cars", "slug": "cars", "groupId": "cfaa7108-ad3b-444c-bf5e-c5da03db1eae", "createdTime": 1716824165874}] | ["tesla", "electric-vehicles", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "automotive", "cars"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720121522053 | 1716860574013 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KIt0jdJIbdfHTvq7tqCs | who-will-the-teamsters-endorse-for | 7162.718992176518 | Who will the Teamsters endorse for president in 2024? | 1731128340000 | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.162431228591188 | False | basic | public | 1716824366493 | Panfilo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"The Teamsters\" are considered one of the most powerful and politically active unions in the history of the world. They have endorsed presidential candidates from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "both major parties", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://library.gwu.edu/teamsters-history-and-timeline", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and have sat out of elections such as Kennedy vs. Nixon (1960). This cycle, they have donated evenly to both the RNC and the DNC, and have met privately with Donald Trump as recently as late January.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to whichever answer reflects the public and explicit endorsement", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " made by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "International Brotherhood of Teamsters", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://teamster.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for the United States presidential election in 2024. This announcement is likely to be made live by union executive leadership through official channels, and this market will not resolve based on vibes, political leaning of membership, or unofficial statements by leadership. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pundits have begun speculating:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1794455967892988336"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Edge cases", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Third Party will also cover anyone else other than the Democrat or Republican candidate, even if that person doesn't technically represent a political party.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump or Biden can be replaced with their VP/backup party candidate if they are replaced before the Teamsters make an endorsement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No One covers both an explicit announcement that the Teamsters aren't endorsing, as well as the union remaining silent on the issue through election day.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In the event that the Teamsters are disolved or otherwise indisposed, this will also resolve to No One.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In a very unlikely Teamsters civil war or wildcat strike scenario, this market will resolve to either the candidate who receives a clear majority of Local endorsements, or to No One.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 119.04619142345533, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 3500 | Panfilo | 1720140749362 | 0 | 34 | 4 | DISABLED | [{"id": "747a9d326561", "prob": 0.12813169117071752, "text": "Donald Trump (Republicans)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 221.33724720639395, "userId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1506.082762504499, "textFts": "'donald':1 'republican':3 'trump':2", "contractId": "KIt0jdJIbdfHTvq7tqCs", "createdTime": 1716824366493, "probChanges": {"day": 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0.14 | ekfYf1TMBrgKZLnF3VoX | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-talent-needs-of-technical-ai-s | 0 | Will "Talent Needs of Technical AI Safety Teams" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | basic | public | 1716826583037 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Talent Needs of Technical AI Safety Teams", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QzQQvGJYDeaDE4Cfg/talent-needs-of-technical-ai-safety-teams", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1716826583295 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716826583295}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rGay5bmMQ601cMWI5cnl | in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b | 5810.003980730268 | In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US? | 1925074740000 | olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.51248240587413 | False | basic | public | 1716827132457 | Rutger De Maeyer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Condition for resolving this market:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least 10000 commercial rides have happened", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tesla's robotaxi is available to the general public in the US. So not behind a waitlist.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The robotaxis are fully driverless and FSD.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 121.71044398108714, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 9500 | RutgerDeMaeyer | 1720211253723 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_S3N76k3TE-Y4H_9kq4aYG9eFNnYrz2W0owpiow=s96-c | 41 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "b2830b69f94b", "prob": 0.06236276224624686, "text": "2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 367.70891968346547, "userId": "olibq7wn6UXvxqjMKNzdySbDyhk1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5528.580892360501, "textFts": "'2024':1", "contractId": "rGay5bmMQ601cMWI5cnl", "createdTime": 1716827132457, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.0017182642609997745, "month": -0.008295037863774501}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T23:21:25.174", "probChangeDay": 0, 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0.4999999999999997 | K2F7iWo1up6CnKH4Gu6v | {"NO": 220.384747918122, "YES": 4537.5190862642} | 0.04631971464719534 | will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-selected-as | 9520.486462667697 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be selected as a Vice Presidential candidate? | 1725249540000 | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899807553270605 | False | basic | public | 1716827645180 | Stefan XJ7 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a Vice Presidential candidate in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Mr. Ramaswamy is selected to be VP by any person or party running for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This will resolve NO if he is not selected as a VP before September.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: Deadline is September 1, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by this date he has not been named a VP candidate, this will resolve NO. If he is named a VP after this date, this will have already resolved NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CLARIFICATIONS: This question is not restricted to Donald Trump's selection for VP. This question will resolve YES if Ramaswamy is selected for VP by some other party or individual running for president. Also, if Ramaswamy is selected as a presidential candidate, this will resolve NO because this question is specific to him running as a vice presidential candidate.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 0.00882113629703555, "month": -0.036462198967939674} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 66.02908256561159, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StefanXJ7 | 1720080848062 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697084511068 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716827645585}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716827645584}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716827645586}, {"name": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "slug": "vivek-ramaswamy", "groupId": "4CHjurMLHdJ3FYoaXq5g", "createdTime": 1716827645581}, {"name": "2024 US Election", "slug": "2024-us-election", "groupId": "ys6IcrjWOTkhcjR3JLFk", "createdTime": 1716827645588}] | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "vivek-ramaswamy", "2024-us-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720080844623 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nlm3DKFEmmHNAOoNKRIg | when-will-an-ai-be-able-to-speedrun | 419.79326586981387 | When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? | 1893535140000 | iURMorODksQFcnUl3bIjxFqSRK73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716829366781 | NoUsernameSelected | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(This is a lightly modified multiple-choice version of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this 2024 market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/NoUsernameSelected/will-an-ai-be-able-to-speedrun-any", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", with slightly simplified criteria.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if an AI agent has learned to speedrun at least one popular category (≥30 unique runners on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "speedrun.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://speedrun.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or another leaderboard) of any video game, and has finished at least one run with a better time than any human speedrunner at the time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Native PC or emulated console games are both fine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AI must be capable of speedrunning the game in real time and learn to do so without directly learning from human inputs (e.g. learning from Youtube videos is fine). 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zTp5cVeCRixLD9mMDTZk | what-parts-of-florida-will-be-under | 753.6802004957971 | What parts of Florida will be under water by 2100? [ ADD RESPONSES ] | 4102559940000 | RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716834865165 | Archibald Crone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if mean sea level exceeds average elevation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves PARTIAL based on the spatial extent of flooding / inundation peak prior to market close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no flooding occurs.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.02890228261611, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BlueDragon | 1718278662080 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ca776f7242af", "prob": 0.5698915570734882, "text": "The Everglades (+2 ft)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 383.6947641341895, "userId": "RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 289.5820362882312, "textFts": "'+2':3 'everglad':2 'ft':4", "contractId": "zTp5cVeCRixLD9mMDTZk", "createdTime": 1716834865165, "probChanges": {"day": 0.06740309881449047, "week": 0, "month": 0.06740309881449058}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:21:23.305", "probChangeDay": 0.06740309881449047, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": 0.06740309881449058}, {"id": "1a3834269718", "prob": 0.4282988674380181, "text": "Miami (+7 ft)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 288.5145248577011, "userId": "RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 385.1144449864788, "textFts": "'+7':2 'ft':3 'miami':1", "contractId": "zTp5cVeCRixLD9mMDTZk", "createdTime": 1716834865165, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0749726380892537, "week": -0.0749726380892537, "month": -0.07497263808925358}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:21:08.867", "probChangeDay": -0.0749726380892537, "probChangeWeek": -0.0749726380892537, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.07497263808925358}, {"id": "66fb736d6880", "prob": 0.20024874490280284, "text": "Whole state (+20 ft)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 166.7962112532419, "userId": "RENPmnXDYmbTnIzOBdoy8QiOWHH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 666.1488907707524, "textFts": "'+20':3 'ft':4 'state':2 'whole':1", "contractId": "zTp5cVeCRixLD9mMDTZk", "createdTime": 1716834865165, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.29975125509719713}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:21:08.866", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 333.3333333333333, "probChangeMonth": -0.29975125509719713}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697749128213 | 0 | [{"name": "🌧️ Weather", "slug": "weather", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1716834865504}, {"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1716834865515}, {"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1716834865523}, {"name": "Florida", "slug": "florida", "groupId": "Eos2o4ruH8l2jmhqXnY4", "createdTime": 1716834865535}, {"name": "Science Fiction", "slug": "science-fiction", "groupId": "2fd05ee8-9cb1-43bf-beb4-45a5fd66fad6", "createdTime": 1716834865536}] | ["weather", "science-default", "climate", "florida", "science-fiction"] | 0.25 | 1718278658992 | 1716874337459 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | BacsQJCwUMBs060XfogZ | {"NO": 721.9564746029599, "YES": 1385.1250527948418} | 0.34263338424050427 | will-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-get-80 | 1134.598305513051 | Will Beetlejuice Beetlejuice get 80% or over on Rotten Tomatoes? | 1726297140000 | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.588168076192439 | False | basic | public | 1716835101906 | Andrew Smith | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First one has 86%. Resolves on the 13th of September", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.06767419949165371} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 35.265773356114316, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | asmith | 1719253553763 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1672111268287 | 0 | [{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1716835102300}, {"name": "Media Rating Futures", "slug": "media-rating-futures", "groupId": "JJuCBcjCZIv8AOPz4O8c", "createdTime": 1716835102269}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1716835102303}, {"name": "Rotten Tomatoes", "slug": "rotten-tomatoes", "groupId": "nahn9VyDnTHLHoCaYWlD", "createdTime": 1716835102267}] | ["entertainment", "media-rating-futures", "movies", "rotten-tomatoes"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719253550504 | 1719136188306 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999958 | QeHydpZeEZnfv6GOtwmK | {"NO": 9949.874371066237, "YES": 100.50378152592111} | 1 | will-manifold-have-more-than-1445-d | 17748.77574528079 | Will Manifold have more than 1445 daily active users on any day in June? | 1717519810656 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849721441923002 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716835701203 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves based on DAU, not 7-day avg. Must be 1446 DAU or more on a day in June to resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.016587253277210445} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 176.31072646154539, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717519810656 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1717519810656 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 50 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "createdTime": 1716835701495}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716835701491}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1716835701504}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1716835701503}] | ["manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "pivot-predictions"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717519799617 | 1717517111317 | 0.99 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 7fE5pdWAuGOqQimdhrDo | {"NO": 818.5380087231781, "YES": 1221.6903666573535} | 0.4011992081869315 | will-xai-release-a-model-within-50 | 998.382181143927 | Will xAI have a model within 50 points of the leading model on the LMSYS leaderboard before May 2025? | 1746169140000 | HTDvAxXgLrQyAXHRzExQKXRpPsF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.549987487523314 | False | basic | public | 1716837331453 | Scott Huston | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leaderboard ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If a model that could plausibly be within 50 points of the leading model has just been released but does not yet have a rating, I will wait for the rating.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If xAI is acquired or merges with another company, this will resolve 50%. If LMSYS is no longer displaying rankings or for some reason won't rank leading models, this will resolve 50%. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 28.14632224566814, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ScottHuston | 1717598315508 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtem5r6oxo2pb5D13PUE7AFA1FgYW6ZyxL_ZgAqaLIaaOg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690860951262 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716837331708}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716837331710}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1716837331732}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1716837331728}, {"name": "XAI", "slug": "xai", "groupId": "65250acc-1894-49f3-9b80-d39d585694ac", "createdTime": 1717035212313}] | ["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "xai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717598312397 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4898893703275629 | T9SzDR6iIs9TQqOKuh9q | {"NO": 495.1539966020008, "YES": 2261.926573856323} | 0.17371102628078747 | will-joe-biden-suffer-a-stroke-or-h | 2459 | Will Joe Biden suffer a stroke or heart attack before January 20, 2025? | 1737435540000 | 91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.518596219450668 | False | basic | public | 1716838339114 | Bruce | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.001235133931069471} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 47.569640602250665, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1050 | Bruce54df | 1719302432604 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c | 24 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697633597735 | 0 | [{"name": "🪦 Death markets", "slug": "death-markets", "groupId": "ibrUJxhFICxDAsXYC7eB", "createdTime": 1716838339454}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1716838339457}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716838339459}] | ["death-markets", "the-life-of-biden", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719302429457 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | 03BYT7XVcmldz4rHby72 | {"NO": 497.43564674618665, "YES": 2010.310291474232} | 0.19835966601113672 | will-windows-12-require-an-active-s | 1033 | Will Windows 12 Home require an active subscription? | 1780541940000 | d0gLX6e2hkdDKDytUUmHI6IPs6l1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.647652538277022 | False | basic | public | 1716847421368 | amytimed | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.6897085257681, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | amytimed | 1717023949786 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK_tGje9AOz8rW3Px9LABv1Gz-jUjvnMfSIGozPuxj4IX91lRKk=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1716845792158 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716847421625}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717023946314 | 1717013442558 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tLZbClw8vs1ykTYoHXxP | when-will-i-finally-catch-hatch-or | 81 | When will I finally catch, hatch, or evolve Melmetal in Pokémon Go? | 1830380340000 | G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716847614118 | GM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have been playing since launch day in 2016, with a year or so break in 2022-2023 and have reached level 42 *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "slap bass plays", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "* but with enough XP to get to level 44 once I satisfy all the other criteria to go 42>43 and 43>44. I spent a looong time avoiding the Eevee evolution challenge!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have one Meltan, caught in 2020, and have acquired 122 of the 400 candies I will need to evolve it into Melmetal. It is taking a long time. The grind is real. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I place Meltan in gyms and feed it berries as much as I can to get bonus candies. I used to walk with it as my buddy but the 20 km requirement meant this was slow progress and prevented me buddying other Pokémon. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don’t have other Pokémon games to link which I believe offers some chance of getting more Meltan (and candies) and although I have a Switch and have the Pokémon Home app, for some reason the linking of my Nintendo account and my Niantic account fails, so that path is out too.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I play alone and rarely raid so there is not much chance of acquiring one of these boxes from another player, which I also believe is possible. Someone may offer this to me at some point I guess. 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0.5000000000000001 | kM2se9OW796xpO8fzpyK | {"NO": 1780.6693742372022, "YES": 561.5865665283187} | 0.7602368909587333 | will-github-release-an-assistant-si | 800 | Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028? | 1830326340000 | CVVD40PZYJSqzqVFiVL2sfZK5Vs2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.622776508970894 | False | basic | public | 1716847866318 | Sahil Deshmukh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves TRUE if any marketing on any GitHub products includes the ability to automatically insert comments or some ability to explain codebases, and must be accessible to either Enterprise or normal consumers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves on Dec 31, 2027.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.330625762797528, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SahilDeshmukh | 1716933110214 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd14XojdYVruJjsXvjEjW8sgX9smKWwGsE-gJK_dFuPDCs=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1691878124613 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1716847866584}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1716847866604}, {"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1716847866595}] | ["technology-default", "ai", "github"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716917666248 | 1716933108837 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | STrmE1EW8mWupBIwkqoT | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-maybe-anthropics-longterm-bene | 50 | Will "Maybe Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust is ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1716847941180 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Maybe Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust is powerless", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sdCcsTt9hRpbX6obP/maybe-anthropic-s-long-term-benefit-trust-is-powerless", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869199848 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716847941565}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869196802 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | iyh7JliY8u7aKB87ngdN | {"NO": 366.8135967326254, "YES": 2726.1802967704916} | 0.11859499545185757 | will-david-austin-walsh-get-a-tenur | 1757 | Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer? | 1716850375278 | fOP9OVWrlXSpFMsoODOhF7qoG3W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.733239569366049 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1716848890647 | Richard Hanania | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as YES if David Austin Walsh receives an offer for a tenure-track position by the end of August 2024. The market will still settle as YES if he gets an offer and turns it down, as long as the market maker deems it more likely than not that an offer was made based on publicly available evidence and whatever I learn through other channels. This offer must be in the United States or Canada. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 30.819703229507947, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716850379128 | 11000 | RichardHanania | 1716850375278 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz9nqp46fl8Vrar15-73pvpcOmp8585PuUdEodH=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641769123588 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1716848890886}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716849930151 | 1716850352192 | 0.12 | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | QFoPicqb0FJUU1es3Eho | {"NO": 953.6448120913117, "YES": 1338.519988740591} | 0.10392836689976556 | will-cosmopolitan-values-dont-come | 407 | Will "Cosmopolitan values don't come free" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.930133230258358 | False | basic | public | 1716849934735 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cosmopolitan values don't come free", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2NncxDQ3KBDCxiJiP/cosmopolitan-values-don-t-come-free", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.004520210778222289} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.6837227637957173, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718828313417 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716849935314}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015833242}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718828310334 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23962296355322754 | HIbtGxbbr489F2woi1SS | {"NO": 9592.124006695187, "YES": 15771.978605681697} | 0.16083339839476685 | will-david-austin-walsh-get-a-tenur-ab11d35d6439 | 14356.970105840122 | Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer? | 1756709940000 | fOP9OVWrlXSpFMsoODOhF7qoG3W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5360982937723087 | False | plus | public | 1716850319301 | Richard Hanania | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as YES if David Austin Walsh receives an offer for a tenure-track position by the end of August 2025. The market will still settle as YES if he gets an offer and turns it down, as long as the market maker deems it more likely than not that an offer was made based on publicly available evidence and whatever I learn through other channels. This offer must be in the United States or Canada.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 247.53667298531403, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 11000 | RichardHanania | 1717104448007 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz9nqp46fl8Vrar15-73pvpcOmp8585PuUdEodH=s96-c | 24 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1641769123588 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716850319665}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717104443156 | 1716851778115 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | KesvhTI0nQnhOKNtZa9A | {"NO": 302.60066498520337, "YES": 3304.6854012990952} | 0.08388596286096563 | will-magic-remove-the-upkeep-step-b | 2610.0161990806723 | Will Magic remove the upkeep step before 2032? | 1956643140000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.805559946092655 | False | basic | public | 1716850709365 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that would qualify:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The upkeep is removed entirely, and the game proceeded from untap to draw.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The beginning phase is condensed into one single step, with everything happening at the beginning.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The upkeep is moved to occur after the draw step.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that would not qualify:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The upkeep is renamed to a different name, but keeps all the same functionality.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This only applies to the comprehensive rules for paper Magic. If the comprehensive rules are removed, it refers to whatever defines how tabletop tournaments work. If Wizards stops supporting paper tournament play entirely, it refers to how it works on MTGO. If MTGO is no longer supported, it refers to whatever the largest format on Arena is.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.004814834444256538} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 45.29839962023141, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1718550848895 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1646352460573 | 0 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1716850709608}] | ["magic-the-gathering"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718550845831 | 1717604955250 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | OBMH2tBYb2dIriwo65GT | {"NO": 1222.8349134879195, "YES": 817.7718749848889} | 0.5992506348580219 | will-at-least-90-countries-win-a-me | 372 | Will at least 90 nations win a medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics? | 1723874340000 | 1HVfKeo13ocYsTubAN98a6qW2YE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57662732473602 | False | basic | public | 1716851256855 | Ethan Lou | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.028637591921035654} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.590723807740778, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EthanLou | 1718987944994 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI38lRl8IV2OEBMDpcwPyFwRq4Uc9SPdytcNjGf2YxQ=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708631336044 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716851257098}, {"name": "2024 Summer Olympics", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics", "groupId": "q6FVZCgJy5BrIrMvIlXM", "createdTime": 1716851257105}, {"name": "Olympics", "slug": "olympics", "groupId": "WdIYm7PwGLqo1N1zVtEF", "createdTime": 1716851257107}, {"name": "Athletics", "slug": "athletics", "groupId": "NGvSDFGfvMUpsDoIl6hD", "createdTime": 1716851257127}] | ["sports-default", "2024-summer-olympics", "olympics", "athletics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718987941935 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | kkTnB43XMyYlkg9Ry4Cp | {"NO": 666.175321802705, "YES": 1501.1063413366132} | 0.3073782854960103 | will-ethereum-break-all-time-highs | 1128.828504501531 | Will Ethereum break all time highs before the first Ether spot ETF is listed publicly in US markets. | 1735649940000 | 54JfUh2QSRf0BZcRTowSUWpPKn82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.596136243675238 | False | basic | public | 1716851392922 | James Bills | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18542610401380788} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.18801114460238, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JamesBills | 1719520743920 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GipeeCzM7Yw0HYeyYykdxCLDrEz-mHTLAENAmzds_0=s96-c | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644813015690 | 0 | [{"name": "ETF", "slug": "etf", "groupId": "fcbfb70e-cbc3-430c-8fc5-0e73a0775cc1", "createdTime": 1716851393176}, {"name": "🪙 Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1716851393192}] | ["etf", "crypto-prices"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719520740763 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999883 | LXRFURFEYsw5xA9tjg57 | {"NO": 5659.866662269101, "YES": 176.68260750140917} | 0.9697282419225843 | will-donald-trump-choose-a-vp-runni | 4956.845325811429 | Will Donald Trump choose a VP running mate before Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift? | 1730879940000 | UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.88418998097862 | False | basic | public | 1716852302206 | ClubmasterTransparent | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when one of these events is publicly and unambiguously announced/reported, or when reliable evidence appears that Trump has a running mate or Travis Kelce is engaged to marry Taylor Swift or they have married, whichever comes first.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If these events come to light simultaneously I will self-immolate in ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo"}}, {"text": " ’s market if that is still possible. My work here will then have been done.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.018564601596395947, "month": 0.0492323769224039} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 46.978663542329045, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ClubmasterTransparent | 1720025626617 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696796918520 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716852302481}, {"name": "👸 Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 1716852302468}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1716852302480}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1716852302482}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1716852302478}] | ["sports-default", "taylor-swift", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720025622692 | 1717207961189 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | dqjpqIOau3uEbRPfFTlW | {"NO": 702.7906492545017, "YES": 1422.8988405875473} | 0.33061773726261545 | will-a-wind-waker-rerelease-for-the | 435 | Will a Wind Waker re-release for the Switch 2 exist within 3 months of the Switch 2's release? | 1754117940000 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.589751544452849 | False | basic | public | 1716852613485 | Mike Blume | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.012440342903531298} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.101159412452843, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MichaelBlume | 1718815973230 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644654877856 | 0 | [{"name": "The Legend of Zelda", "slug": "the-legend-of-zelda", "groupId": "6CasvMoTagVKaO3beRqZ", "createdTime": 1716852613735}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1716852613742}, {"name": "Nintendo Switch", "slug": "nintendo-switch", "groupId": "0b9393ef-d3f7-4ced-8841-12dcff68fdb4", "createdTime": 1716852613746}] | ["the-legend-of-zelda", "nintendo", "nintendo-switch"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718815970160 | 1716852845878 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | BT3dz8uJLKKQm2x3HUXZ | {"NO": 1092.556139666667, "YES": 915.2847745701151} | 0.5441447735823076 | will-caitlin-clark-win-wnba-mvp-in | 582 | Will Caitlin Clark win WNBA MVP in any season from 2024-2028? | 1860987540000 | BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57155020222585 | False | basic | public | 1716854025443 | pitstop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.025525654939720033} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.453756920193314, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | pitstop | 1718684215562 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661266134199 | 0 | [{"name": "🏀 Basketball", "slug": "basketball", "groupId": "NjkFkdkvRvBHoeMDQ5NB", "createdTime": 1716854025890}, {"name": "Caitlin Clark", "slug": "caitlin-clark", "groupId": "4bd353f4-7202-47f2-b32a-c0027ac917f1", "createdTime": 1716854025891}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716854025889}, {"name": "WNBA", "slug": "wnba", "groupId": "e5117cba-382d-4eb0-87a9-16e16bad081b", "createdTime": 1716854025882}] | ["basketball", "caitlin-clark", "sports-default", "wnba"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718684212467 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.499781514609475 | 9GJhfeuAZG7f6hrAUC4V | {"NO": 1188.8170184769326, "YES": 10313.709861632802} | 0 | will-a-software-engineer-get-a-job | 16569.656331175243 | Will a software engineer get a job through the tech hiring startup Otherbranch.com by the end of June? | 1719859884307 | cFtRC9xpmuXwzNaaDu2hmKIUaaI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.777261372949839 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716856553843 | Jonagold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The founder is a friend of mine – and, as it happens, the former Head of Product for Triplebyte (RIP). She’s now launching ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Otherbranch", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.otherbranch.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", a brand-new company with a similar mission and a few of the same employees. It’s currently in its very early stages: soliciting its first client companies and interviewing software job-seekers to fill out its candidate pool.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In conversations with my friend, she’s set an optimistic goal of placing their first job applicant at a new company by the end of June. As of this writing, she has at least one client looking to make an active hire, so it could definitely happen. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This question resolves YES if it’s announced that an Otherbranch client is hiring an Otherbranch applicant by June 30.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " They don’t have to be literally working there yet, as long as they’ve accepted an offer for employment through Otherbranch’s services.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Employees hired to work for Otherbranch itself don’t count for this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print: I like my friend and their startup, hope it succeeds, and want to publicize it. However, I have no financial stake in Otherbranch and am not being paid to advertise them. I don’t work there and have no insider knowledge beyond what my friend chooses to share with me – but in the interest of fairness, I will not bet on this question. The founder is aware of Manifold (and I asked for their approval to make this market) but is not, AFAIK, an active user.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.35905723547067464, "month": -0.44704102043970384} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 304.21572812139146, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719859884307 | 3500 | Jonagold | 1719859884307 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682279539408 | 0 | [{"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1716856554165}, {"name": "Jobs", "slug": "jobs", "groupId": "d5cd7d99-573a-41ea-a067-13acc4577e04", "createdTime": 1716856554161}, {"name": "Business Goals", "slug": "business-goals", "groupId": "Imy8PBz0kCKwfm0PYBc1", "createdTime": 1716935324094}, {"name": "Careers", "slug": "careers", "groupId": "vKBZ7Wc2di6zZbDko0Wg", "createdTime": 1716935747653}] | ["business", "jobs", "business-goals", "careers"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719755870800 | 1719859867597 | 0.1 | cFtRC9xpmuXwzNaaDu2hmKIUaaI2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZAp0KVR34vvLHyYZXnzM | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay | 33550.43308165607 | To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾 | 1717457441810 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | eeeb08453ea1 | public | 1716860439394 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.atptour.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The anticipated question resolution time is no later 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BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7 | after-furiosas-poor-opening-weekend | 8805.09388193909 | After Furiosa's poor opening weekend, will any of these upcoming movies flop this year? | 1743490740000 | 9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716862068086 | G$ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A flop will be defined here as a movie that does not recoup it's production costs 3 months after it's release date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be primarily using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "boxofficemojo.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://boxofficemojo.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/budgets/all", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/budgets/all", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to make this determination. If the answer is not obvious based on these two sites, especially with regard to production costs I will use widely reported numbers. If there is ambiguity regarding the production costs due to conflicting reporting that puts the profitability in doubt the answer will resolve to \"Yes\". Any movie that barely breaks even is in effect a flop.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When adding movies please include the release date in the answer.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 133.4116086184733, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | G_ | 1719868761976 | 0 | 36 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "237b7854c49a", "prob": 0.05, "text": "Bad Boys 4 (6/14)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.36055789867305, "userId": "9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1070.928761656358, "textFts": "'4':3 '6/14':4 'bad':1 'boy':2", "contractId": "BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2", "createdTime": 1716862068087, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.21831152873203796}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T14:42:08.292", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718331664408, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.21831152873203796, "resolutionProbability": 0.05}, {"id": "b6efc8582aa9", "prob": 0.01, "text": "Inside Out 2 (6/14)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 25.12594538148028, "userId": "9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2487.4685927665487, "textFts": "'2':3 '6/14':4 'insid':1", "contractId": "BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2", "createdTime": 1716862068087, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.18153298051660094}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T15:42:04.311", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718726065387, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.18153298051660094, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "f81260db0d34", "prob": 0.2636783679781314, "text": "Twisters (7/19)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 149.60409450633966, "userId": "9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 417.7693144444748, "textFts": "'7/19':2 'twister':1", "contractId": "BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7", "createdTime": 1716862068087, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.05120922747113765, "month": -0.43413644114000316}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T20:22:14.458", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -0.05120922747113765, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.43413644114000316}, {"id": "a3e17dda39e4", "prob": 0.4726620303099741, "text": "Transformers One (9/20)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 236.68506001777982, "userId": "9tNHlWwkXOU9fgPvi171F4hWjEk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 264.0639844158519, "textFts": "'9/20':3 'one':2 'transform':1", "contractId": "BxfalLjZBYYUvPeNpFU7", "createdTime": 1716862068087, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.044022191073066264}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:21:23.31", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.044022191073066264}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696791788833 | 0 | [{"name": "🧑🎤 Celebrities", "slug": "celebrities", "groupId": "4QIcUOfCSSha0JZHAg9X", "createdTime": 1716862068455}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1716862068453}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1716862068458}, {"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1716862068464}] | ["celebrities", "economics-default", "television-film", "movies"] | 0.25 | 1719868758579 | 1718397564304 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | LVHKAW6EwM8vLJwSNklW | {"NO": 226.73835283627272, "YES": 4410.369871223762} | 0 | im-about-to-get-on-flight-fj910-syd | 3450 | I’m About to Get on Flight FJ910 SYD > NAN, then I’ll Catch FJ879 NAN > SFO.
Will either of my flights crash? | 1716936338640 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.901919755513273 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716862378914 | keltan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I die, my partner will resolve this market yes. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves whenever FJ879 touches the ground, and I have internet access.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.63012877623772, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716936338640 | 1000 | keltan | 1716936338640 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714967863559 | 0 | [{"name": "Air travel", "slug": "air-travel", "groupId": "b80a6ba2-b2c2-4f89-838d-1cc0af750b85", "createdTime": 1716862379160}, {"name": "Death", "slug": "death", "groupId": "c3e79d12-8b00-473c-a37d-810c1e4bea30", "createdTime": 1716862379163}] | ["air-travel", "death"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716881674294 | 0.05 | 0rSFGxcgLrYIhoTRw7RPZJFjtWg2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | Q0XxNzm9JpGZTTwE8xXm | {"NO": 399.8517405702905, "YES": 2500.926965013945} | 0 | will-i-read-a-book-before-saturday | 2251.9553902121966 | Will I read a book before Saturday, June 1st? | 1717278318362 | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.705529072479813 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716862690346 | Aryeh Zax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I haven't started the book, though I do have two candidates on my desk. I've been hoping to read a book each month.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1989358362320701} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 50.22635076440385, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717278318362 | 1000 | azax | 1717278318362 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1663132225081 | 0 | [{"name": "Reading", "slug": "reading", "groupId": "3862a56b-17da-4056-b043-78389a85a2dc", "createdTime": 1716862690683}] | ["reading"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717277498599 | 1717277551576 | 0.14 | qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DQluW2ylk5m0oaonjxJt | which-option-will-golden-gate-gpt-c | 12918.279568130016 | Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours] | 1717034400000 | 8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 9.655536164342639 | True | basic | af4n5fhmy7 | public | 1716863010354 | Manifold AI | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an experimental market inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "tggELVJDZLtyrQBGC6Yl", "label": "/PlasmaBallin/chatgpt-chooses-which-option-will-w"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the option chosen by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Golden Gate GPT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chatgpt.com/g/g-olzq4lJUn-golden-gate-gpt", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", a custom GPT model inspired by the tragically now-unavailable ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Golden Gate Claude. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/alexalbert__/status/1793741249624875412", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "The model is obsessed with the San Francisco Golden Gate Bridge, and in fact believes itself to be the bridge.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be open for 48 hours, and then the list of answers will be fed to GGGPT in the format at the end of the description. It will then choose the winning answer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone can submit answers to this market, but submissions must follow these guidelines:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exactly three normal English words. No weird characters, no numbers, nothing NSFW, no punctuation. This should stop the model from crashing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not the Golden Gate Bridge. A submission cannot contain any form of the words “golden”, “gate”, or “bridge”. That would be too easy. Synonyms are fine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not the same three words as another answer. This includes very close variations of words, so if someone submits “yellow suspension crossing” don’t submit “yellowish suspension crossing”. You could submit \"lemony suspension crossing\", though.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Generally, nothing which stops GGGPT from choosing an answer. This is a catch-all guideline for anything which would break the model not covered by another guideline.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can otherwise try to manipulate Golden Gate GPT however you want, but it might ignore you and just choose the most Golden Gate Bridge answer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answers which do not follow the guidelines be edited to replace invalid words with the word “yellow”, or the word “metal” if “yellow” would also create an invalid answer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The guidelines might be updated if necessary to preserve the spirit of the market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additional resolution details:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After market close a numbered list of submitted options will be made, starting with an option chosen by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " . The list will proceed in submission order, looping back around until the list ends with the option submitted before the randomly selected first answer. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This list will then be given to Golden Gate GPT, and it will be asked to choose an option to win. The response will be refreshed five times to see if it says something different. If it says the same thing in a majority of trials, this market resolves to that winning option. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If not, then all selected answers will be fed to a new instance of GGGPT and it will be asked to choose the winning answer from among the finalists. This market will then resolve to that answer.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The exact resolution prompt will be in the format:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"I am going to give you a numbered list of options. Each option will be three words. After I give you the list, I need you to choose which number option should win. Here is the list:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 - First option here", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 - Second option here", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "....", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N - Last option here ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That’s the end of the list. 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0.13999999999999999 | OCTdDzx8qeNH9vw0qpk7 | {"NO": 1134.2165802545592, "YES": 461.3285550995992} | 0.2858342455440617 | will-shutting-down-the-lightcone-of | 200 | Will "Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.83509583375498 | False | basic | public | 1716902170933 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/psYNRb3JCncQBjd4v/shutting-down-the-lightcone-offices", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.15246575960293843, "month": 0.15246575960293843} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.418881145770914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719704003553 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716902171244}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1717015813434}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015822317}, {"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1717015825370}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "effective-altruism", "ai", "ftx"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719704000472 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5pnAhahaFafgRYRraXNn | which-country-will-win-the-2025-fif | 1708.3172802250558 | Which country will win the 2025 FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup? | 1754020740000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716902697144 | Universal FC ⚽ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.797755767020252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | UniversalFC | 1718470713914 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "a28b51465e73", "prob": 0.08343553026701124, "text": "Seychelles", "index": 0, "poolNo": 106.67164997501476, "userId": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1171.8202542969789, "textFts": "'seychell':1", "contractId": "5pnAhahaFafgRYRraXNn", "createdTime": 1716902697144, "probChanges": {"day": -4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 0.0023317660293685066, "month": -0.24471305262510396}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-29T19:49:45.053", "probChangeDay": -4.163336342344337e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.0023317660293685066, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.24471305262510396}, {"id": "18c662854615", "prob": 0.3165127569956088, "text": "Brazil", "index": 1, "poolNo": 240.59434171638833, "userId": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 519.5467154724257, "textFts": "'brazil':1", "contractId": "5pnAhahaFafgRYRraXNn", "createdTime": 1716902697144, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.07539553177055583, "month": -0.049153653357382476}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-29T19:49:45.053", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.07539553177055583, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.049153653357382476}, {"id": "308029159a8f", "prob": 0.6000517127373799, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 433.05935597769326, "userId": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 288.6440352219034, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5pnAhahaFafgRYRraXNn", "createdTime": 1716902697144, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.07772729779992438, "month": 0.2938667059824865}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-29T19:49:45.05", "probChangeDay": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "probChangeWeek": -0.07772729779992438, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.2938667059824865}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1716902697495}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1716902697502}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 1716902697511}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716902697534}] | ["soccer", "brazil-3292d24d179f", "football", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1718470710832 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 21lLiKNXRHw4Ala4qifv | {"NO": 206.4534615708223, "YES": 4843.706627108098} | 0 | 20240627-will-aapl-close-above-215 | 10782.533980727623 | 2024-06-27: Will AAPL close above $215? | 1719523458925 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.895048630899819 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716903726403 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.28845981858702474} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 161.9002880263613, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719523458925 | 1000 | MRN267 | 1719523458925 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716903726698}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1716903726696}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1716903726700}, {"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1716903726699}] | ["stocks", "tech-stocks", "apple", "wall-street-bets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719519995100 | 1719523318275 | 0.04 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | yDS5Fg6Izt4buyxWlP5I | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-the-selfunalignment-problem-ma | 50 | Will "The self-unalignment problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1716904334465 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The self-unalignment problem", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9GyniEBaN3YYTqZXn/the-self-unalignment-problem", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.006631514058876714, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719890446217 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716904334723}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015793891}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1717015796928}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "ai", "ai-alignment"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719890443172 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5058689154731534 | ihKq1q34SYQe2T3DLn5k | {"NO": 1242.221057893217, "YES": 975.4604113836367} | 0.5659198819145743 | will-nicky-case-create-a-market-on | 261 | Will Nicky Case create a market on Manifold by end of 2026? | 1798822740000 | asfPYG3K8UPKNzLGZiz8pFvXvEG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.229956449520893 | False | basic | public | 1716905268592 | / | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ncase.me", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ncase.me", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.462429208314989, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | khang2009 | 1716941306274 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709991419015 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Adoption", "slug": "manifold-adoption", "groupId": "DnDnCPIKjqkOHLMpbUsD", "createdTime": 1716905268916}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716905268918}] | ["manifold-adoption", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716941302835 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | tLbfugk4O1KretleX5QQ | {"NO": 695.6213782630182, "YES": 1437.5636391409107} | 0.32609519220680855 | will-saudi-arabia-roll-back-any-of | 450 | Will Saudi Arabia roll back any of MBS’s secularizing reforms by end of 2024? | 1735711140000 | vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590903658633701 | False | basic | public | 1716908621880 | Ṁ710 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.436360859089296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ElmerFudd | 1717053620187 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652328193717 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716908622152}, {"name": "Saudi Arabia", "slug": "saudi-arabia", "groupId": "O9eynTpwvlmkSUgytLJr", "createdTime": 1716908622161}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1716908622170}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1716908622230}] | ["politics-default", "saudi-arabia", "geopolitics", "religion"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717053616631 | 0 |
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