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0.5000000000000003 | poXj2r4HOqAmeM35MJKH | {"NO": 840.0102796928769, "YES": 1190.4616219287427} | 0.4137019965762689 | will-openphil-think-it-is-better-to | 771.5037564677002 | Will OpenPhil think it's better to spend mana creating EA prediction markets at $1 rather than donate it to EA LTFF? | 1717801140000 | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575058275607853 | False | basic | public | 1716795654890 | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I email them about it, will the Open Philanthropy (OpenPhil) team think it is more positively impactful for me to spend mana creating prediction markets about Effective Altruism (EA) cause areas, like those I have created previously, at ~$1 each... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.09044644762194326} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.33260841670541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TheAllMemeingEye | 1717797734034 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704035290346 | 0 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1716795688103}, {"name": "Open Philanthropy", "slug": "open-philanthropy", "groupId": "b01e0b0a-6e7f-4eb9-a6e8-ab0a821515b0", "createdTime": 1716795703093}, {"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predic... | ["effective-altruism", "open-philanthropy", "pivot-predictions", "manifold-for-charity", "mana"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717797730924 | 1717681492264 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG | who-will-form-the-uk-government-aft | 11996.351933305668 | UK General Election: What form will the next government take? | 1720825140000 | HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716795657051 | Mike H | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For coalitions involving >2 parties (eg Labour + SNP + Green) any answer which includes the relevant parties (eg \"Labour + SNP\" or \"Labour + Green\") will resolve to YES. However the largest party (in this case Labour) must be in the answer for ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 88.41603070650493, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1250 | MikeH | 1720160616916 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6 | 28 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3ef61f34c721", "prob": 0.9852829943952379, "text": "Labour majority", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2045.5531794269586, "userId": "HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 30.554082205532637, "textFts": "'labour':1 'major':2", "contractId": "lqGFMrgUsBbMCn1BrDaG", "createdTime": 1716795657051, "prob... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696786983018 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716795657350}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716795657355}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4... | ["uk-politics", "uk", "-uk-general-election-2024", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 1720160613765 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 0HKLisFADmDOWUHL1Pa0 | {"NO": 345.5334186207552, "YES": 2894.0760751641315} | 0.10665897210254899 | will-the-uk-introduce-national-serv | 2812.6302548279145 | Will the UK introduce National Service before 2028? | 1830383940000 | HDFJe2Ui9OSFho8f1oRSqVzG0dx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.607229483994166 | False | basic | public | 1716796377043 | Mike H | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Conservative party has proposed the introduction of national service in the UK. Will this be implemented on broadly the proposed lines before 1 January 2028?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.94881923074021, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MikeH | 1717310838093 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarkH%2FgObCokmWVb.11?alt=media&token=2fc87fc1-1292-4070-ae84-042947d511f6 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696786983018 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1716796377319}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1716796377317}] | ["uk-politics", "uk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717310834967 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | fSEVTsWwt1uBR1rgPhLq | {"NO": 938.991817173486, "YES": 1064.9720069022096} | 0.4685672495143894 | will-the-sec-sue-or-settle-with-cai | 534.2019418949207 | Will the SEC sue or settle with Caitlyn Jenner? | 1764543540000 | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.571247572535864 | False | basic | public | 1716796848529 | Fedor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caitlyn Jenner launched a new $JENNER coin yesterday. A very typical pump and dump celebrity coin.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some promises/allusions were made about the crypto coin hitti... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.307246340495265, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Fedor | 1717083891028 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678129247577 | 0 | [{"name": "🪙 Crypto", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1716796848775}, {"name": "SEC", "slug": "sec", "groupId": "fced6b02-8033-4522-bfae-c3b9c0f9744d", "createdTime": 1716796848779}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "create... | ["crypto-speculation", "sec", "twitter"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717083887636 | 1716803880415 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 8aDxN1EWr6XbapMxoHTG | {"NO": 1057.0587127124247, "YES": 946.0212455313751} | 0.5277166836810654 | will-the-icc-prosecute-a-us-citizen | 59 | Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035? | 2056571940000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57081141833429 | False | basic | public | 1716799002477 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the International Criminal Court (ICC) formally charges a US citizen with international war crimes before January 1, 2035.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.013896849475911743, "month": 0.013896849475911743} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.941287287575323, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912509427 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "International Criminal Court", "slug": "international-criminal-court", "groupId": "80a3fa11-0079-4360-bfe2-2f0dfa01f36e", "createdTime": 1716799002734}, {"name": "Justice", "slug": "justice", "groupId": "1efab6ef-de22-4cb9-b01b-dfccf3407bb7", "createdTime": 1716799002746}, {"name": "United States", "slug": "... | ["international-criminal-court", "justice", "united-states", "institutions", "international-law"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912506352 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | ReZ7dwhzJT61q5aX2MMu | {"NO": 655.6901007284788, "YES": 1525.1107175310235} | 0.30066482699313457 | will-there-be-concentration-camps-i | 946.0041296347846 | Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040? | 2214597540000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599413769338355 | False | basic | public | 1716799302289 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if credible reports confirm the existence of concentration camps in Taiwan before January 1, 2040.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolutio... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.008241218570340492, "month": -0.02261588337255216} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.119476937533147, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912501260 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "🇹🇼 Taiwan", "slug": "taiwan", "groupId": "yVxGLCRxMXptN7l4Bw9p", "createdTime": 1716799302538}, {"name": "Totalitarianism", "slug": "totalitarianism", "groupId": "7f5bb0e5-47cb-4b2e-9d29-836c4433bfc5", "createdTime": 1716799302543}, {"name": "China Taiwan potential conflict", "slug": "china-taiwan-potentia... | ["taiwan", "totalitarianism", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "china", "concentration-camps"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912497324 | 1717259970412 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | TW6tmdzJLvwjG6wFeRWh | {"NO": 629.1980937868377, "YES": 1589.3245861275345} | 0.2836112965999173 | will-mira-murati-be-ceo-of-openai-b | 605 | Will Mira Murati be CEO of OpenAI before 2029? (again) | 1867442340000 | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.603974376546068 | False | basic | public | 1716799589917 | RemNi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Mira Murati becomes the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of OpenAI before January 1, 2029.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria for Resolution:", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.007650379074784941, "month": -0.015565731041612352} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.675413872465654, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | RemNi | 1719912484609 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690812555459 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1716799590175}, {"name": "Mira Murati", "slug": "mira-murati", "groupId": "64831c0d-78f6-46b7-9e3f-b51b58a441da", "createdTime": 1716799590179}, {"name": "AGI", "slug": "agi", "groupId": "3cbc32f4-d3ca-405d-882a-dcdb194eb74f", "c... | ["openai", "mira-murati", "agi", "ai", "ceos"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719912481399 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oo26WOddCfUvGw9jDtfv | when-will-ai-matchmakers-exist | 1340 | When will AI matchmakers exist? | 1925049540000 | T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716799609795 | Tony Gao | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYzuycrGqkI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYzuycrGqkI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 40.80521477271085, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | TonyGao | 1718271664446 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c | 12 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bf813789411f", "prob": 0.6843494890281265, "text": "Before 2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 368.10840517242787, "userId": "T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 169.78694080816769, "textFts": "'2025':2", "contractId": "Oo26WOddCfUvGw9jDtfv", "createdTime": 1716799609796, "probChanges": {"day"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697428923391 | 0 | [{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1716799610366}, {"name": "Online Dating", "slug": "online-dating", "groupId": "7d3f9828-2707-4642-a27c-4884749043db", "createdTime": 1716799610368}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"... | ["dating", "online-dating", "culture-default", "technology-default", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1718271654141 | 1716840151038 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oLbr41vcpJE7AKUr55iy | whos-full-self-driving-technology-w | 9751.59167263254 | Whose full self driving technology will I be able to order a robotaxi from first in Corvallis, Oregon? | 2051337540000 | fwY7CpsMocgZ5SbA9ZD76Q68CPz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716802794828 | mister_person | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As a proxy for who wins the self-driving race. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I must be able to order a ride between almost any two places in Corvallis, where the car shows up by itself and drives me to my destina... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 103.05602162151348, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mister_person | 1719932558367 | 0 | 15 | 5 | ANYONE | [{"id": "a05874290693", "prob": 0.5426306952463797, "text": "Telsa", "index": 0, "poolNo": 314.4329485085974, "userId": "fwY7CpsMocgZ5SbA9ZD76Q68CPz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 265.02735711570955, "textFts": "'telsa':1", "contractId": "oLbr41vcpJE7AKUr55iy", "createdTime": 1716802794828, "probChanges": {"day": 0.11... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697933082741 | 0 | [{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1716802795221}, {"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1716802795226}, {"name": "Waymo", "slug": "waymo", "groupId": "68b1ade9-99ec-4d42-8da3-615ec79e30bd", ... | ["selfdriving-vehicles", "tesla", "waymo", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.25 | 1719932555163 | 1719866343401 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | zG0zowOCzbCXCWYraAEp | {"NO": 104.91844771299293, "YES": 9531.212306300198} | 0 | will-75-of-noneuropean-pro-users-ha | 9371.648866088608 | Will >75% of Non-European ChatGPT Pro Users Have Access to GPT-4o Voice Modality by July 7 2024? | 1719809662976 | jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.852103899295852 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716803599686 | Roberto Gomez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A poll will be conducted six weeks ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.1169054575742579, "month": -0.706510670292371} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 93.34398134940247, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719809662976 | 1000 | RobertoGomez | 1719809662976 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzsGkARi5n93ihu6fO41PTFHtZh-XCjvWL5b0ki=s96-c | 15 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1640694027186 | 0 | [{"name": "GPT-4o", "slug": "gpt4o", "groupId": "9c3a6cba-7016-4fe5-b895-b83529f50e78", "createdTime": 1716803600526}, {"name": "ChatGPT", "slug": "chatgpt", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1716803600525}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "cr... | ["gpt4o", "chatgpt", "gpt4-speculation", "openai", "gpt5-speculation"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719809626958 | 1719472131192 | 0.01 | jZsECgI1Y5fuDY9alZvz7CMcxSg2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999999 | 412JVmCctpTbagEEjCvD | {"NO": 3615.5592491615516, "YES": 276.5823849330917} | 1 | does-anyone-attempt-to-climb-the-wa | 2844.4658323854023 | Does anyone attempt to climb The Water Cone today? | 1716848527086 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.844526517539633 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716811387250 | April | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I suppose I'll count it if it's a random passerby rather than a meetup attendee, as long as I hear about it having happened.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It can't just be getting in the wat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.9749184530458, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716848527086 | 1000 | April | 1716848527086 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644451915684 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716848460727 | 0.93 | xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | VgmKNi8s7nKn8CgsIRkl | {"NO": 173.82752419693497, "YES": 5752.8288722968155} | 0 | will-haitian-gang-lord-vitelhomme-i | 4825.633051544903 | Will Haitian gang lord Vitel’homme Innocent be detained by authorities by July? | 1719813540000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.883091267054635 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716813629871 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by this viral tweet about ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Vitel’homme Innocent", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitel'Homme_Innocent?wprov=sfti1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:un... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.24960307311317323, "month": -0.24960307311317323} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.03229688665923, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719835558789 | 1000 | dglid | 1719813540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 18 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1643941084707 | 0 | [{"name": "Haiti", "slug": "haiti", "groupId": "f0a5e370-beb6-4116-8c4f-1194f9b10b98", "createdTime": 1716813630315}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716813630309}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "c... | ["haiti", "politics-default", "world-default", "technology-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719811990693 | 0.03 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | OKGWH1fJJpYFuriYbY82 | {"NO": 1406.080553619042, "YES": 123.25214155157977} | 0.6499999999999999 | will-truthseeking-is-the-ground-in | 423.7161337329394 | Will "Truthseeking is the ground in which other pri..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.739274292648632 | False | basic | public | 1716814876190 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0.20873082338524102, "week": 0.34139161333822454, "month": 0.3539154382034502} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.635580113897657, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 163.7161337329394 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1720207769526 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716814876479}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1720207766426 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 9Y7Sicl5EU3oAspEpWur | {"NO": 7710.237452121404, "YES": 129.69769170012478} | 1 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-30fdee03a848 | 8036.842516508356 | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on May 28 than it closed on May 25? | 1716926504845 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.8644270178939 | True | basic | YES | public | 1716815472991 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.63940609541633, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716926504845 | 1000 | JimFix | 1716926504845 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716926476631 | 0.98 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | E5KXCuWevNyMYvCNTp8T | {"NO": 177.89021155027854, "YES": 5621.444773634226} | 0 | will-the-sp-stock-index-close-highe-ea85264950fb | 4749 | Will the S&P stock index close higher on May 31 than it closed on May 25? | 1717477140000 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.884651382010679 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716815737721 | Jim Fix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.030674243168351652} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 43.32864115160126, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717502879711 | 1000 | JimFix | 1717477140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1696775041650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717476140607 | 1717454665687 | 0.03 | Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ZAp0KVR34vvLHyYZXnzM | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay | 33550.43308165607 | To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾 | 1717457441810 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | eeeb08453ea1 | public | 1716860439394 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will close at 1:00 AM CT on the morning of scheduled semifinal match and will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.atptour.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 138.75322363155462, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717457441810 | 1750 | ovals | 1717466160916 | 0 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4b9438dbd711", "prob": 0.0014194598722796668, "text": "R128", "index": 0, "poolNo": 13.467979244391415, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 9474.633451028312, "textFts": "'r128':1", "contractId": "ZAp0KVR34vvLHyYZXnzM", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "createdTi... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697477345360 | 0 | [{"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1716860439788}, {"name": "French Open (Roland Garros)", "slug": "french-open-roland-garros", "groupId": "tLyLJUZPPPZFSrhAzYkB", "createdTime": 1716860439792}, {"name": "ATP Tour", "slug": "atp-tour", "groupId": "a841d448... | ["sports-default", "french-open-roland-garros", "atp-tour", "taylor-fritz", "tennis"] | 0.25 | 1717447422057 | 1717466159626 | {"eeeb08453ea1": 100} | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.13999999999999999 | OCTdDzx8qeNH9vw0qpk7 | {"NO": 1134.2165802545592, "YES": 461.3285550995992} | 0.2858342455440617 | will-shutting-down-the-lightcone-of | 200 | Will "Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.83509583375498 | False | basic | public | 1716902170933 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.15246575960293843, "month": 0.15246575960293843} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.418881145770914, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719704003553 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716902171244}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1717015813434}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupI... | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "effective-altruism", "ai", "ftx"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719704000472 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5pnAhahaFafgRYRraXNn | which-country-will-win-the-2025-fif | 1708.3172802250558 | Which country will win the 2025 FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup? | 1754020740000 | n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1716902697144 | Universal FC ⚽ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.797755767020252, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | UniversalFC | 1718470713914 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "a28b51465e73", "prob": 0.08343553026701124, "text": "Seychelles", "index": 0, "poolNo": 106.67164997501476, "userId": "n3zzATIKccTzFxyifz7vSGNKjHD3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1171.8202542969789, "textFts": "'seychell':1", "contractId": "5pnAhahaFafgRYRraXNn", "createdTime": 1716902697144, "probChanges": {"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1682429098149 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1716902697495}, {"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1716902697502}, {"name": "⚽ 🏈 Football", "slug": "football", "groupId": "Vcf6CYTTSXAiStbKSqQq", "createdTime": 17... | ["soccer", "brazil-3292d24d179f", "football", "sports-default"] | 0.25 | 1718470710832 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 21lLiKNXRHw4Ala4qifv | {"NO": 206.4534615708223, "YES": 4843.706627108098} | 0 | 20240627-will-aapl-close-above-215 | 10782.533980727623 | 2024-06-27: Will AAPL close above $215? | 1719523458925 | TRwXJ75GQkfZ8ijFF46gQYYrYUi1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.895048630899819 | True | basic | NO | public | 1716903726403 | MRN | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.28845981858702474} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 161.9002880263613, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719523458925 | 1000 | MRN267 | 1719523458925 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704225270314 | 0 | [{"name": "📈 Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1716903726698}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1716903726696}, {"name": "🍎 Apple", "slug": "apple", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 171690372670... | ["stocks", "tech-stocks", "apple", "wall-street-bets"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719519995100 | 1719523318275 | 0.04 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | yDS5Fg6Izt4buyxWlP5I | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-the-selfunalignment-problem-ma | 50 | Will "The self-unalignment problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1716904334465 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.006631514058876714, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719890446217 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1716904334723}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717015793891}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8... | ["lesswrong-annual-review", "ai", "ai-alignment"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719890443172 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5058689154731534 | ihKq1q34SYQe2T3DLn5k | {"NO": 1242.221057893217, "YES": 975.4604113836367} | 0.5659198819145743 | will-nicky-case-create-a-market-on | 261 | Will Nicky Case create a market on Manifold by end of 2026? | 1798822740000 | asfPYG3K8UPKNzLGZiz8pFvXvEG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.229956449520893 | False | basic | public | 1716905268592 | / | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ncase.me", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ncase.me", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": ... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.462429208314989, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1100 | khang2009 | 1716941306274 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709991419015 | 0 | [{"name": "Manifold Adoption", "slug": "manifold-adoption", "groupId": "DnDnCPIKjqkOHLMpbUsD", "createdTime": 1716905268916}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1716905268918}] | ["manifold-adoption", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1716941302835 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | tLbfugk4O1KretleX5QQ | {"NO": 695.6213782630182, "YES": 1437.5636391409107} | 0.32609519220680855 | will-saudi-arabia-roll-back-any-of | 450 | Will Saudi Arabia roll back any of MBS’s secularizing reforms by end of 2024? | 1735711140000 | vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590903658633701 | False | basic | public | 1716908621880 | Ṁ710 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.436360859089296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ElmerFudd | 1717053620187 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FElmerFudd%2FO_VjM6kAYN.07?alt=media&token=41234898-830b-4e46-ae81-5236cc9e8349 | 8 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1652328193717 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1716908622152}, {"name": "Saudi Arabia", "slug": "saudi-arabia", "groupId": "O9eynTpwvlmkSUgytLJr", "createdTime": 1716908622161}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", ... | ["politics-default", "saudi-arabia", "geopolitics", "religion"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717053616631 | 0 |
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