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0.5000000000000019 | 8Up5Fete5pibl3970vK0 | {"NO": 2383.407655265087, "YES": 419.56733578115586} | 0.8503135642945766 | will-a-crystal-market-with-m1000000 | 29120.995488504817 | Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July? | 1722466740000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.606712070492844 | False | basic | public | 1717053203353 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since liquidity is returned to the creator upon resolution, some ground rules to prevent whale abuse:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market must attract a minimum of 25 traders (this should be almost a given for a market with such huge liquidity)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market should be about something legitimately predictive, ie, not just a true 50/50 coin flip", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market must not be intended or likely to resolve N/A (I'm not going to wait until resolution, but it should be clear)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market must ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "start", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " with this liquidity, and not be upgraded to it after. I'll be a tiny bit lenient if it's immediately upgraded within an hour or so of creation, so the intent was to create a crystal market from the start.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a market with Ṁ1M initial liquidity, or more, meeting these criteria is created by the end of July. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This includes by Manifold itself. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "It also includes if Manifold renames things away from \"Crystal\", or introduces different tiering, as long as the initial liquidity is Ṁ1M or greater.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.07791840379071435, "week": -0.07791840379071435, "month": 0.5147404695503939} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 325.56073197937866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 388.47796408321875 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1720204374583 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720204371440 | 1718313654560 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | PRLqMmO6BodAgs9lTbZl | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-responsible-scaling-policies-a | 50 | Will "Responsible Scaling Policies Are Risk Managem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1717053471901 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Responsible Scaling Policies Are Risk Management Done Wrong", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9nEBWxjAHSu3ncr6v/responsible-scaling-policies-are-risk-management-done-wrong", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869193113 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717053472202}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869190048 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | AfnSVV1wVfw6DANJtRWE | {"NO": 2209.604702469766, "YES": 452.56963785525363} | 0.83 | will-i-become-a-master-on-codeforce | 25043.815638533528 | Will I become a master on Codeforces by the end of August? | 1725141540000 | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.634935965287092 | False | basic | public | 1717053537866 | Patrik Cihal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is my Codeforces profile: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/0npata", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/0npata", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be training for IOI so you can expect some improvement. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0751020466693968, "month": 0.04000000000000015} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 404.0123673816603, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | patrik | 1720150712093 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690398218800 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717053538097}, {"name": "Competitive Programming", "slug": "competitive-programming", "groupId": "ebfc51ef-eff4-4813-9ae7-0573e0b15da6", "createdTime": 1717053538103}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717053538207}] | ["technology-default", "competitive-programming", "programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720150709003 | 1717347175841 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | gV8tqDuKczLOR6WNHrWu | {"NO": 1031.9010437756253, "YES": 969.0851715209992} | 0 | will-i-post-a-sequence-on-ai-alignm | 33 | Will I post a sequence on AI alignment to LessWrong before July 1? | 1717743540000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570486434810464 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717054449954 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a rough draft of part of the sequence ready and feel like it might be somewhat valuable, but I would like people to review it first, and I don't want to post it if I feel like it doesn't meet the epistemic standards of the site. I do not have any current plan to get reviewers or any connections in the community (although I am working on this), or any previous activity on the site. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5156962281335143, "month": -0.5156962281335143} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0989562243747202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719861609084 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1717743540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717054450233}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717054450234}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1717054450228}, {"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1717054450232}] | ["personal-goals", "ai-safety", "ai-alignment", "lesswrong"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717064090859 | 0.52 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | s1yk5CiyjjEilA5gmEim | {"NO": 651.3636137515941, "YES": 1535.2408069594167} | 0.29788818113693966 | will-a-survey-of-correlation-progra | 830 | Will a survey of correlation (Programming Rating)-(Attractiveness) get at least 250 responses by the end of week? | 1717354740000 | lUGDbuJVTpPyYsXTYXpd4139sE43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.599095553069777 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717062982505 | Ender Ting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "found a survey", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/129894", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on competitive programming website (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CodeForces", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), which attempts to measure correlation of rating on said site (generally, evaluation of programming skills) to attractiveness. Here's the text of original article:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been a couple of studies which have shown a statistically significant positive correlation between intelligence (measured through IQ) and physical attractiveness. The most popular one by number of citations is probably ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289610001315", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". I will be referring to this study multiple times in this blog.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are also a lot of studies which claim that perceived intelligence (what a random person would estimate your iq to be, by just looking at a photograph of your face) is positively correlated with measured intelligence (your actual iq), but they do not say anything about attractiveness (some examples are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3961208/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289617300843", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The conclusion that beautiful people are more intelligent might be reached through a priori reasoning, as it follows from four assumptions. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Assumption 1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": More intelligent men are more likely to occupy higher status than less intelligent men.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assumption 2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Higher-status men are more likely to mate with more beautiful women than lower-status men.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assumption 3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Intelligence is heritable, such that sons and daughters of more intelligent men are more intelligent than sons and daughters of less intelligent men.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assumption 4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Beauty is heritable, such that sons and daughters of more beautiful women are more beautiful than sons and daughters of less beautiful women.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The conclusion that more beautiful people are more intelligent than less beautiful people logically follows from these four assumptions, making it a theorem. In other words, if all four assumptions are empirically true, then the conclusion must logically be true and there must be a correlation between beauty and intelligence. Such a correlation, however, is extrinsic, rather than intrinsic (Jensen, 1998, pp. 139–143) or causal.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now, why do I bring this up on codeforces of all places?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I love you guys and can't stop talking to you.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People here have a much higher average IQ than the general population, and yet everyone here seems to not have a girlfriend and repel women (maybe I'm projecting, but I see a lot of jokes about this in the comments and half of the userbase has an anime pfp. There also seems to be a joke that the lower your rating is, the less likely you are to be single.). Why isn't the average cf user a chad (or atleast chadlite) despite having big brain high iq genetics?", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One could give a lot of reasons as to why this might be the case, with some truly big brain examples being:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everyone here is a volcel, we could easily get females if we wanted but we're just too addicted to math/cp to seek females.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All the physically attractive smart males are too busy talking to females to do math, so only the less attractive smart males are congregating here.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Maybe only males in the 110-130 IQ range have good appearance genetics. Since we're all in the high 140s/low 150s, we have transcended humanity and do not have good look genes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most users here are actually chads but they refuse to reveal their chadness so other non-chad users don't feel bad about being looks mogged while IQ matched.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, all the above reasons are bad and I couldn't think of any good reasons.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Therefore, to solve this mystery I decided to take advantage of my insanely high IQ and use the scientific method to explain this apparent contradiction. I request you, my brothers, in the name of science, to answer this extremely super scientific survey form to help me get to the bottom of this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "survey form", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forms.gle/HRMBmy2GQH5ZaDut5", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is of course anonymous and I will publish the results (the primary focus being determining a positive or negative correlation between rating/iq and physical appearance) in a few days if the blogpost isn't nuked and enough people answer.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The post says that there were 65-70 serious responses in 12 hours of posting. Will the survey get at least 250 responses?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's the guide to approximate rating for Manifolders:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you know how to code and can write a simple task by description, this maps to rating of 1200-1399 or 1400-1599;", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you know how to code and can apply algorithms of optimization like binary search or trees, this is rating of 1600-1899;", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you are knowledgeable in competitive programming, rating would be at least 1600-1899 or higher.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(You may also participate in a contest or two until end of week and apply display-to-real rating adjustments from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/77890", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/77890", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "; this would be more precise)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.094704338201232, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718855601666 | 1000 | AnT | 1717354740000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcWkbPJnNa7oUkYFwveuKh1CoCbDrksUco-QNBP=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1686508617605 | 0 | [{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717062982765}, {"name": "Surveys", "slug": "surveys", "groupId": "619d2037-75ed-4269-ae93-1bd34a5899f8", "createdTime": 1717062982769}] | ["programming", "surveys"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717350693119 | 1718855575860 | 0.3 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999997 | 8ZlU7PaI2BVoKLmAimIO | {"NO": 1870.1489043483973, "YES": 534.7167798643412} | 1 | will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1117 | 955.1974190454995 | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1117 of One Piece on June 13th? | 1718301304154 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.632224018625022 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717083896348 | dwax | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am basing this off of GMT-7 time zone for June 13th. If they release chapter 1117 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as “YES.” Anything else will resolve as “NO.”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB Scans ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "usually", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " posts the chapter on the Thursday before official release. 1116 and 1115 were Thursdays. 1114 was a Thursday, May 9th. 1113 was a Friday, April 25th. 1112 was a Friday, April 19. 1111 will be uploaded March 22, a Friday. 1110 was uploaded March 15th, a Friday. 1109 was uploaded March 1, a Friday. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15, both Thursdays. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB has started posting on Fridays after the twitter account ban. Unknown if this shall continue, thought I’d put the info here for investors.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not answer my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.4795837365243171} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.43532085669511, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718301307964 | 1000 | dwax | 1718301304154 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708101936708 | 0 | [{"name": "Manga", "slug": "manga", "groupId": "0e0wvkjcHdblLOdaK9jp", "createdTime": 1717083896600}, {"name": "One piece theories", "slug": "one-piece-theories", "groupId": "78f2f6a8-571e-44b4-976c-937610a9375b", "createdTime": 1717083896609}, {"name": "Release Dates", "slug": "release-dates", "groupId": "cc227156-11f9-445d-88cf-f6e760cbdb86", "createdTime": 1717083896611}, {"name": "Anime", "slug": "anime", "groupId": "ZfknfjPrTvWkDaWMI98o", "createdTime": 1717083896615}, {"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717083896621}] | ["manga", "one-piece-theories", "release-dates", "anime", "one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718296138274 | 1718297242938 | 0.78 | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | RCiDzgPymY9mp2OS05LV | {"NO": 100.9294945684772, "YES": 9907.906546797713} | 0 | will-nvidia-close-above-1138-on-may | 234123.79822222338 | Will Nvidia close above $1138 on May 31st? | 1717201543895 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.849953980472165 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717084143795 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve Yes if Nvidia close above $1138 on May 31st", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to close the market at any moment, even before resolution is out. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Give me 3 days to resolve this market after the end of May 31st ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010084039158133778} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2462.028941599594, "platformFee": 1460.1692128512873, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717201543895 | 1000 | AmmonLam | 1717201543895 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668192587343 | 0 | [{"name": "Nvidia", "slug": "nvidia", "groupId": "43f31fc9-9568-44c6-842c-7c9e091b81c3", "createdTime": 1717084144055}, {"name": "GPU", "slug": "gpu", "groupId": "0e284bb8-81b7-48fc-8b3b-c459de7d87a8", "createdTime": 1717084144062}, {"name": "Tech Stocks", "slug": "tech-stocks", "groupId": "pK06hNX8MsNw8zaBsX2N", "createdTime": 1717084144059}] | ["nvidia", "gpu", "tech-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717195070270 | 1717193078902 | 0.01 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2gamtX8Yi4VRIBB1rW7O | how-much-will-bad-boys-ride-or-die-bmvuybf2vi | 13339.008668452168 | How much will "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | 1718207687379 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717085315725 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo for \"Bad Boys: Ride or Die\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4919268/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for", "type": "text"}, {"text": " \"Bad Boys For Life\" (2020) was $62,504,105", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1182631425/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 108.9543094790388, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718207687379 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1718207755436 | 0 | 16 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "xh0a6zj75z", "prob": 0.99, "text": ">$40 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2487.46859276655, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.12594538148022, "textFts": "'40':1 'million':2", "contractId": "2gamtX8Yi4VRIBB1rW7O", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTime": 1717085315725, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.2473614984486857, "month": 0.4900000000000001}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T14:21:23.557", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.2473614984486857, "resolutionTime": 1718207624038, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.4900000000000001, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "3p0w6cwveh", "prob": 0.99, "text": ">$48 million", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2487.4685927665405, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.12594538148022, "textFts": "'48':1 'million':2", "contractId": "2gamtX8Yi4VRIBB1rW7O", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTime": 1717085315725, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.5464469120773773, "month": 0.4900000000000001}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T16:21:18.167", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.5464469120773773, "resolutionTime": 1718207674693, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.4900000000000001, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "vmk09wydv8", "prob": 0.99, "text": ">$56 million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 2449.599095351851, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.514379115584347, "textFts": "'56':1 'million':2", "contractId": "2gamtX8Yi4VRIBB1rW7O", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTime": 1717085315725, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.7682715289855566, "month": 0.48969163257410886}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T18:43:00.369", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.7682715289855566, "resolutionTime": 1718207680506, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.48969163257410886, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "4dg94phw9i", "prob": 0.01, "text": ">$64 million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 25.125945381480165, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2487.4685927665473, "textFts": "'64':1 'million':2", "contractId": "2gamtX8Yi4VRIBB1rW7O", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "createdTime": 1717085315725, "probChanges": {"day": -5.204170427930421e-18, "week": -0.1251139725888109, "month": -0.49000000000000005}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T20:21:17.941", "probChangeDay": -5.204170427930421e-18, "probChangeWeek": -0.1251139725888109, "resolutionTime": 1718207687379, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.49000000000000005, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🎥 Movies", "slug": "movies", "groupId": "KSeNIu7AWgiBBM5FqVuB", "createdTime": 1717085316150}, {"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1717085316144}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717085316156}, {"name": "Box-Office", "slug": "boxoffice", "groupId": "IbCVuDeG5LtAeh5NcH0w", "createdTime": 1717085316153}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717085316157}] | ["movies", "television-film", "culture-default", "boxoffice", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1718079712965 | 1718207753397 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | False | old | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | n3z53jKbont9y1waNtjF | {"NO": 855.3629140141599, "YES": 1169.0944084857133} | 1 | will-sb-1047-fix-the-definition-of | 220 | Will SB 1047 fix the definition of a derivative model in a way that Zvi publicly expresses approval of? | 1717681437612 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574126540202638 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717087448086 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SB 1047", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ai-65-i-spy-with-my-ai#%C2%A7sb-update", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " currently has a bug, according to Zvi: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To summarize the issue once more: As written, if interpreted literally and as I understand it, it allows developers to define themselves as derivative of an existing model. This, again if interpreted literally, lets them evade all responsibilities, and move those onto essentially any covered open model of the same size. That means both that any unsafe actor goes unrestricted (whether they be open or closed), and releasing the weights of a covered model creates liability no matter how responsible you were, since they can effectively start the training over from scratch.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scott Weiner says he is working on a fix.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there has has been such a fix, and Zvi reports on his blog that this fixes the bug (not necessarily perfectly, but to a degree less than it being a \"potential showstopper bug\"). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5774853317441502} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 6.967486191226038, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717681437612 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1717681437612 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1642130392212 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717087448354}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1717087448359}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717087448361}] | ["us-politics", "ai-alignment", "ai"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717142647928 | 1717681320065 | 0.42 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | pCHPPm88gyxpbBSvNePW | {"NO": 706.6505160002907, "YES": 1415.1266819418656} | 0.33304652189006884 | if-trump-wins-will-elon-musk-have-a | 2059 | If Trump Wins, will Elon Musk have an advisory role in his administration? 🇺🇸🗽🗳️🌎 | 1741352340000 | cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.589149936312495 | False | basic | public | 1717087552029 | Elf | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FeM_LQRbFtR.png?alt=media&token=8268b0c3-1c30-4448-ab3f-73f67efcb583", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/29/elon-musk-trump-white-house-role", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/29/elon-musk-trump-white-house-role", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "resolves yes if Trump wins the election and Elon Musk has an advisory role in his administration ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.014058873927335125} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 62.09656297045308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | elf | 1718036651292 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668973436049 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717087552285}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717087552316}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1717087552330}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717087552318}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717087552320}] | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718036648182 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 197bLcZ8ZjkEhbgBL9o0 | {"NO": 347.42479667509514, "YES": 2878.320746159005} | 0.1077037206009287 | will-at-least-12-of-the-population | 1910.0541196259878 | Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ? | 2209093140000 | QQInWv7nHJgbmN67E7QlHfQDkO42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.668080244345802 | False | basic | public | 1717089906022 | Dave K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Roger Hallam has claimed \"12 per cent of the population of Phoenix, Arizona will die of extreme heat in the 2030s.\" Market resolves yes if extreme heat is credibly the cause of \"you can predict 180,000 deaths during the 2030s - ie., 12% of the population dies from heat during that decade.\" Will by default rely on medical examiner's office records used by Hallam to anchor his projection; I reserve the right to judge by my best guess if a heat event happens that kills so many that the medical examiner is overwhelmed or similar. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Caveat: in awful edge-case scenarios where Phoenix gets nuked or firebombed by aerial bombardment, that doesn't count as extreme heat, and I probably NA cancel this market out of sadness and disgust at the world. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1795734145223545338", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1795734145223545338", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.010637324368151915} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.733373466983487, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DaveK | 1718585204179 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2R6SvkbqD9GkJI_SN-kCZntRToJnhbIGK4scrO=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1664484956400 | 0 | [{"name": "🪸 Climate", "slug": "climate", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1717089906399}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717089906408}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717089906407}, {"name": "Arizona", "slug": "arizona", "groupId": "31009d8b-f5f3-43b2-be1f-4e408fde0577", "createdTime": 1717089906404}, {"name": "Global Warming", "slug": "global-warming", "groupId": "1d594418-9039-4fb8-a2ba-9e25fe45cd91", "createdTime": 1717089906405}] | ["climate", "politics-default", "public-health", "arizona", "global-warming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718585201122 | 1717793033552 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | 69762.13566315571 | Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide | 1719115140000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717091838279 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer contains a question: Should the list relevant word be pronounced the first way, or the second way? Bet NO for the way on the left, or YES for the way on the right according to your opinion. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "You can submit any word that seems to have multiple pronunciations, just make sure your pronunciation options are clearly understood phonetically (and it follows the structure of the other answers)! If there is another (3rd) pronunciation of a word, it can challenge the winner of the first two pronunciations. Also let me know if there are any phonetic issues (I'm not good at it).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will close every month (may speed this up to weekly if the market catches on).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority (min. 5 votes) of YES holders, the option resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Heavily inspired from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@Joshua", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " + ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2", "label": "Bayesian"}}, {"text": " markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew", "label": "/Bayesian/leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0", "label": "/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "yVSSHdotBiAW6mVyuses", "label": "/Bayesian/would-you-rather-manifold-chooses"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1057.2826063889647, "platformFee": 57.2826063889648, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719896401618 | 6850 | StopPunting | 1719988657656 | 0 | 141 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "kxyl09mxu0", "prob": 0.08, "text": "Caramel - 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\"bin\" (NO) or \"ben\" (YES) ", "index": 6, "poolNo": 28.62574755769367, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2183.3490941689743, "textFts": "'ben':5 'bin':2 'yes':6", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05114122874026955}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.769", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033741100, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.05114122874026955, "resolutionProbability": 0.01}, {"id": "9wsygk1uxh", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Lilac - \"lie-lock\" (NO) or \"lie-lack\" (YES) ", "index": 7, "poolNo": 1155.5085135472395, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 54.0887403833437, "textFts": "'lack':9 'lie':3,8 'lie-lack':7 'lie-lock':2 'lilac':1 'lock':4 'yes':10", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.053181846370908725}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.769", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033390381, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.053181846370908725, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}, {"id": "m7pkhytxdb", "prob": 0.93, "text": "Nevada - \"Nev-ad-ah\" (NO) or \"Nev-ah-da\" (YES) ", "index": 8, "poolNo": 895.8060943680999, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 69.76956329381447, "textFts": "'ad':4 'ah':5,10 'da':11 'nev':3,9 'nev-ad-ah':2 'nev-ah-da':8 'nevada':1 'yes':12", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.07225696167896101, "month": 0.1892505873984045}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:00:34.166", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.07225696167896101, "resolutionTime": 1719896381350, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.1892505873984045, "resolutionProbability": 0.93}, {"id": "b9qqsmck9w", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Oregon - \"Or-a-gun\" (NO) or \"Or-a-gone\" (YES)", "index": 9, "poolNo": 47.223788065521056, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1323.4855262623976, "textFts": "'gone':11 'gun':5 'or-a-gon':8 'or-a-gun':2 'oregon':1 'yes':12", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.04201025225435031}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.77", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033676006, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.04201025225435031, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "fq81si2c08", "prob": 0.07, "text": ".gif - \"giff\" (NO) or \"jiff\" (YES)", "index": 10, "poolNo": 68.8723638408532, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 907.4757495535051, "textFts": "'gif':1 'giff':2 'jiff':5 'yes':6", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05265796027308003}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:30.202", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033672978, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.05265796027308003, "resolutionProbability": 0.07}, {"id": "bo5982ykz7", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Vase - \"Veyce\" (NO) or \"Vahz\" (YES)", "index": 11, "poolNo": 33.09643332677916, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1888.4210084785705, "textFts": "'vahz':5 'vase':1 'veyc':2 'yes':6", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.052677594443705754}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.77", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033668554, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.052677594443705754, "resolutionProbability": 0.02}, {"id": "k6jr5ms3mr", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Jewelry - \"jool-ree\" (NO) or \"joo-lure-ree\" (YES) ", "index": 12, "poolNo": 43.06136251140154, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1451.417148805996, "textFts": "'jewelri':1 'joo':8 'joo-lure-re':7 'jool':3 'jool-re':2 'lure':9 'ree':4,10 'yes':11", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.14988368989870587}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.772", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033624830, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.14988368989870587, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "hz7kkmahly", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Almond - \"al-muhnd\" (NO) or \"am-uhnd\" (YES)", "index": 13, "poolNo": 44.18028487159454, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1414.6581485757708, "textFts": "'al':3 'al-muhnd':2 'almond':1 'am-uhnd':7 'muhnd':4 'uhnd':9 'yes':10", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07946152461896101}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.771", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033621056, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.07946152461896101, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "udo12qxtba", "prob": 0.92, "text": "Foyer - \"Foi-yey\" (NO) \"Foi-er\" (YES)", "index": 14, "poolNo": 832.868161413861, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75.04188885537548, "textFts": "'er':8 'foi':3,7 'foi-er':6 'foi-yey':2 'foyer':1 'yes':9 'yey':4", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717091838280, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.08265343998904096, "month": 0.39491787352582697}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T14:21:27.208", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.08265343998904096, "resolutionTime": 1719896386930, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.39491787352582697, "resolutionProbability": 0.92}, {"id": "6q8tulsxpu", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Manifold (Website) - \"man-if-old\" (NO) or \"mana-fold\" (YES)", "index": 15, "poolNo": 44.68201745360997, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1398.7730089602405, "textFts": "'fold':11 'man':4 'man-if-old':3 'mana':10 'mana-fold':9 'manifold':1 'old':6 'websit':2 'yes':12", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717106679446, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.07459884001640389}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.771", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033573554, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.07459884001640389, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "r47hnnfg8g", "prob": 0.03, "text": "New Orleans - \"nyu-or-leens\" (NO) or \"nuh-or-lins\" (YES)", "index": 16, "poolNo": 47.03224547880416, "userId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1328.8755270714555, "textFts": "'leen':6 'lin':12 'new':1 'nuh':10 'nuh-or-lin':9 'nyu':4 'nyu-or-leen':3 'orlean':2 'yes':13", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717106761697, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.054282149112721514}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T22:21:09.494", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033618406, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.054282149112721514, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "otm18voe34", "prob": 0.93, "text": "SQL - \"sequel\" (NO) or \"Ess-cue-ell\" (YES)", "index": 17, "poolNo": 906.5692253634672, "userId": "uz2R7whtx1M0ZW3YADm1YzZjzg93", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 68.94123278334557, "textFts": "'cue':7 'ell':8 'ess':6 'ess-cue-el':5 'sequel':2 'sql':1 'yes':9", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717109745947, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.07067195662290893, "month": 0.2932959034212258}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:21:31.807", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.07067195662290893, "resolutionTime": 1719896377237, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.2932959034212258, "resolutionProbability": 0.93}, {"id": "zn1vogrcmp", "prob": 0.03, "text": "GNU - \"guh-new\" (NO) or \"jee-en-yew\" (YES)", "index": 18, "poolNo": 44.72292246224919, "userId": "AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1397.493646636276, "textFts": "'en':9 'gnu':1 'guh':3 'guh-new':2 'jee':8 'jee-en-yew':7 'new':4 'yes':11 'yew':10", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717110985040, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1473847973074513}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:12.723", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033566506, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.1473847973074513, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "764sv8orq6", "prob": 0.02, "text": "Linux - \"lin-uchs\" (NO) or \"lie-nuchs\" (YES)", "index": 19, "poolNo": 35.55367450379877, "userId": "AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1757.9055012533836, "textFts": "'lie':8 'lie-nuch':7 'lin':3 'lin-uch':2 'linux':1 'nuch':9 'uch':4 'yes':10", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717111054913, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03525732334328532}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:12.718", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033569962, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.03525732334328532, "resolutionProbability": 0.02}, {"id": "i2t0a0mrgz", "prob": 0.03, "text": "pen/pin - pronounced differently (NO) or pronounced the same (YES)", "index": 20, "poolNo": 46.18208436844856, "userId": "NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1353.3386562062503, "textFts": "'differ':3 'pen/pin':1 'pronounc':2,6 'yes':9", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717183520563, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1917579604772755}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:00:08.178", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033523644, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.1917579604772755, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "2spz9vls4y", "prob": 0.03, "text": "niche - \"neesh\" (NO) or \"nitch\" (YES)", "index": 21, "poolNo": 43.79819999209124, "userId": "jG6jdINhZ2O7DmqUddB9cybjdUc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1426.9992833332353, "textFts": "'neesh':2 'nich':1 'nitch':5 'yes':6", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717188494016, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.05461486783003644}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:12.718", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033516930, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.05461486783003644, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "rw9d4b5tba", "prob": 0.99, "text": "Wednesday - \"wed-nes-day\" (NO) or \"wends-day\" (YES)", "index": 22, "poolNo": 2487.4685927665478, "userId": "AVAshetcCxQ3dtwGryHKVASwaej1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.125945381480303, "textFts": "'day':5,10 'nes':4 'wed':3 'wed-nes-day':2 'wednesday':1 'wend':9 'wends-day':8 'yes':11", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717189404167, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.010098481731527609}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T13:22:35.494", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033356079, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.010098481731527609, "resolutionProbability": 0.99}, {"id": "2wvmbud1l5", "prob": 0.03, "text": "Data - “Day-tuh” (NO) “Da - tuh” (short A like “Who dat” or “Cat” YES)", "index": 23, "poolNo": 46.89560576775789, "userId": "UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1332.7474712560531, "textFts": "'cat':14 'da':6 'dat':12 'data':1 'day':3 'day-tuh':2 'like':10 'short':8 'tuh':4,7 'yes':15", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717345880041, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.1567232547590992}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:00:30.193", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033503605, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.1567232547590992, "resolutionProbability": 0.03}, {"id": "bp3limk6px", "prob": 0.97, "text": "Scone - \"skon\"/skɒn (NO) or \"skoan\"/skoʊn (YES)", "index": 24, "poolNo": 1362.0285885311343, "userId": "xoo782zW9geixafwEaT7B9Ku3Bj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 45.88743623025002, "textFts": "'/sk':3 '/sko':8 'scone':1 'skoan':7 'skon':2 'yes':10 'ɒn':4 'ʊn':9", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717450541525, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-04T00:43:33.854", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1718033360677, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.97}, {"id": "3goqm4vpm6", "prob": 0.95, "text": "Trieste - \"tree-est-eh\" (NO) or \"tree-est\" (YES)", "index": 25, "poolNo": 451.99078920783563, "userId": "9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 22.12434465208046, "textFts": "'eh':5 'est':4,10 'tree':3,9 'tree-est':8 'tree-est-eh':2 'triest':1 'yes':11", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1717895630262, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0466644978656543, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0466644978656543, "resolutionTime": 1719896369710, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.95}, {"id": "oqsdijm6p2", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Handkerchief - \"Hayn-kehr-chiff\" (NO) or \"Hayn-kehr-cheef\" (YES)", "index": 26, "poolNo": 495.58777922831405, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.178060111916253, "textFts": "'cheef':11 'chiff':5 'handkerchief':1 'hayn':3,9 'hayn-kehr-cheef':8 'hayn-kehr-chiff':2 'kehr':4,10 'yes':12", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1718033878078, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.0391225214483536, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.0391225214483536, "resolutionTime": 1719896363077, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}, {"id": "ojgp5luz91", "prob": 0.04, "text": "LMAO - \"Luh-may-oh\" (NO) or \"Luh-mow\" (YES)", "index": 27, "poolNo": 20.32825382285617, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 491.9261677437564, "textFts": "'lmao':1 'luh':3,9 'luh-may-oh':2 'luh-mow':8 'may':4 'mow':10 'oh':5 'yes':11", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1718034028817, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.039683901137811305, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.039683901137811305, "resolutionTime": 1719896401618, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.04}, {"id": "h90hvcucu3", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Either - \"Eye-thehr\" (NO) or \"Ee-Thehr\" (YES)", "index": 28, "poolNo": 485.5678154929216, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.59444567974213, "textFts": "'ee':8 'ee-thehr':7 'either':1 'eye':3 'eye-thehr':2 'thehr':4,9 'yes':10", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1718034076449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.04068743811920994, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.04068743811920994, "resolutionTime": 1719896366826, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}, {"id": "y8b4q7nt5v", "prob": 0.04, "text": "Aunt - \"Ant\" (NO) or \"Ahnt\" (YES)", "index": 29, "poolNo": 21.560103546265587, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 463.81966480546333, "textFts": "'ahnt':5 'ant':2 'aunt':1 'yes':6", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1718034113076, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.04441904041340703, "month": -0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.04441904041340703, "resolutionTime": 1719896397807, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.04}, {"id": "nd6v7tb5eh", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Envelope - \"Ehn-vel-oahp\" (NO) or \"Ahn-vel-oahp\" (YES)", "index": 30, "poolNo": 499.8327942176652, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 20.006690468663464, "textFts": "'ahn':9 'ahn-vel-oahp':8 'ehn':3 'ehn-vel-oahp':2 'envelop':1 'oahp':5,11 'vel':4,10 'yes':12", "contractId": "RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "createdTime": 1718034174646, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.03848628482066052, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.03848628482066052, "resolutionTime": 1719896353889, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}] | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717091838735}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717091838733}, {"name": "Language", "slug": "language", "groupId": "tegXqevnSJSDlHW3Kbel", "createdTime": 1717091838731}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717091838727}, {"name": "Manifold Debate", "slug": "manifold-debate", "groupId": "8cbfc989-5bcb-4dba-8482-ac60940a84b5", "createdTime": 1717093176170}] | ["culture-default", "entertainment", "language", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-debate"] | 0.25 | 1719013909277 | 1719988655794 | 0.04 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | False | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zojxoxFmMdy4eIkLILXd | how-are-you-living | 0 | How are you living? | 1719806340000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717093174269 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719806340161 | Predictor | 1717093174729 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717093174729}] | ["polls"] | 0.25 | ["t7jci3pzor"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zr1MibMZUcbBt5kGmlkq | festival-personal-predictions-what | 6242.236850558963 | Festival Personal Predictions: What will attendees say they did while attending Manifest / Less Online / Summer Camp? | 1718002740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717096792125 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All answers resolve NO by default", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if I am not told to resolve them to YES by the person who submitted them before the end of Saturday, June 15th. (The weekend after the festival).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution is generally up to the person who submitted the answer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", just by the honor system. All answers have the unstated clause \"according to the person this answer is about\". You can delegate resolution power to someone who agrees to it, though. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You are encouraged to bet on yourself, to motivate yourself to achieve your personal goals! You can also bet /against/ yourself to hedge! ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't risk more mana than you are willing to lose to someone betting on themselves and claiming they achieved their goal!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No proof is required, but you are encouraged to post fun pictures if you can. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only submit answers about yourself, or your partner / close friend if they're okay with it. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answers should be about what you'll do during the days you are attending Manifest / Less Online / Summer Camp, but can still include events that don't happen at Lighthaven itself.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answers should resolve to NO in ambiguous situations, don't plan on any 50% or N/A resolutions. If the answer isn't definitely YES, it should be NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do however reserve the right to N/A submissions according to my personal judgement. I might do this if I think someone is acting in bad faith or if a submission isn't a good fit for this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can submit private answers! Just replace words with [redacted] and only tell your friends what it means! I encourage this for anything that might be a little /too/ personal.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Less Online, Summer Camp, and Manifest will take place from May 31st to June 9th in Berkely California", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.manifest.is/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can find more markets like this at the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifest Dashboard.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/manifest-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 72.72655951453241, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718135087955 | 1750 | Joshua | 1718002740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ab6lugeydv", "prob": 0.56, "text": "@Joshua will change his mind about something significant", "index": 0, "poolNo": 280.80669416244285, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 222.57304152387704, "textFts": "'chang':3 'joshua':1 'mind':5 'signific':8 'someth':7", "contractId": "zr1MibMZUcbBt5kGmlkq", "resolution": "NO", 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"totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.41325588402940805}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717101511034}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717101511042}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1718296009948 | 1717135849126 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 5KD2FfeoZKY47RXYdSlA | {"NO": 1126.358039948908, "YES": 887.8171633998015} | 0.5592155230966291 | will-fable-studios-showrunner-app-r | 322 | Will the showrunner.xyz streaming platform reach 100,000 monthly active users by May 30, 2025? | 1748642399000 | VceLIk2vHlaTmIbBeCUAISXK5LZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572532708846378 | False | basic | public | 1717102884724 | Carlo Lepelaars | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Platform:", "type": "text"}, {"text": " showrunner.xyz", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://showrunner.xyz", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "News: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/fable-studios-launches-showrunner-app-aiming-to-netflix-ai", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/ai/fable-studios-launches-showrunner-app-aiming-to-netflix-ai", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market predicts whether Fable Studios' AI animation app Showrunner, which just launched, will grow to have 100K monthly active users (MAU) within 1 year.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution Time:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2025-05-30 23:59:59 ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution Source:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Fable Studios official report of Showrunner app monthly active users as of May 30, 2025. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NOTE: If Fable Studios doesn't report anything about their MAU before May 30, 2025 we are going to assume it did not exceed 100K and resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Showrunner announcement on X: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://x.com/fablesimulation/status/1796245808066740274", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/fablesimulation/status/1796245808066740274", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCfuKZKN_Q-.png?alt=media&token=ef26d764-f3a0-4872-8aab-a2d12d43fb9f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.641280335324325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarloLepelaars | 1717123725842 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMoFAQsfBzQbbF23Ohab_oKwG5hJGMhszqhsiKQ6n80nlZNddc=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715707339487 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717123722481 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999944 | mNccptRmfGGl9UZtl2wk | {"NO": 3092.2232183716665, "YES": 323.39191881710167} | 0.9053195673903498 | will-donald-trump-be-eligible-to-vo | 4544.825714369261 | Will Donald Trump be eligible to vote in the 2024 election? | 1730879940000 | NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.77890960699117 | False | basic | public | 1717104017681 | Josh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trump was just convicted of 34 felonies. Will he be eligible to vote in the 2024 election?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/voter-registration/constitutional-amendment-4felon-voting-rights/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/voter-registration/constitutional-amendment-4felon-voting-rights/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02148154246725753} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 82.60796805934767, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | josh | 1719518777952 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c | 56 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1651877888759 | 0 | [{"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717104017935}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717104017938}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717104017940}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717104017943}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717104017942}] | ["trump-indictments", "politics-default", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719518774836 | 1717122826849 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ErxIjAgOACySzxmvFUAa | {"NO": 917.0345883025923, "YES": 1090.4714094273963} | 0.4568029133360201 | will-moana-2s-opening-weekend-domes | 622 | Will Moana 2's opening weekend domestic box office gross exceed $100 million? | 1733439540000 | VceLIk2vHlaTmIbBeCUAISXK5LZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57149824024118 | False | basic | public | 1717105281264 | Carlo Lepelaars | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "News: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/culture/moana-2-trailer-sets-disney-animated-record-178m-views-24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/culture/moana-2-trailer-sets-disney-animated-record-178m-views-24", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market predicts whether the upcoming Disney animated film Moana 2 will gross over $100 million at the domestic box office in its opening weekend, after its record-breaking trailer views. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution Time:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " December, 2024", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Box Office Mojo weekend box office report following Moana 2's release. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fvk_FMODDiD.png?alt=media&token=609de0e6-935f-47c7-98f6-3d7886bd72e0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.413776111390593, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarloLepelaars | 1717185953220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMoFAQsfBzQbbF23Ohab_oKwG5hJGMhszqhsiKQ6n80nlZNddc=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715707339487 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717185950094 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5 | 32242.545867420326 | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold? | 1719775650757 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | agrdigdu07 | public | 1717105365380 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decided by LIKES on the comments below after market close, 'Other' will not be eligible to win.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be related to Manifold in some way by my judgement, and not just because it is recent news. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TO SUBMIT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Post the meme from #memefold with the title and creator", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Add an answer above with the same name", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Screenshots of conversations might not count as memes!", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be manifold related ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "En0ncv9e19UiqN4Zxz69", "label": "/strutheo/what-memefold-post-will-be-voted-be"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 221.90438576217335, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719775650757 | 2000 | strutheo | 1719775650757 | 0 | 58 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "j4bhkj2ym5", "prob": 0.007060291840621155, "text": "ideal counterparty - 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T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH | which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam | 78789.41793233932 | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1719806340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717105525825 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shorts do not count, Livestreams do not count, but uploaded videos in the main Video tab that are made from streams do count", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 759.0935283978832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719809026107 | 10650 | strutheo | 1719814101908 | 0 | 61 | 10 | ANYONE | [{"id": "shfwwbh9dd", "prob": 0.08, "text": "Joseph Anderson", "index": 0, "poolNo": 73.60433717747918, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 849.1347439118479, "textFts": "'anderson':2 'joseph':1", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": 1717105525825, "probChanges": {"day": -0.14749730953555348, "week": -0.17042092075788665, "month": -0.23982782750688839}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T07:42:04.684", "probChangeDay": -0.14749730953555348, "probChangeWeek": -0.17042092075788665, "resolutionTime": 1719807012095, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.23982782750688839, "resolutionProbability": 0.08}, {"id": "5n9iirj0ky", "prob": 0.09, "text": "CGP Grey", "index": 1, "poolNo": 79.45800456060192, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 786.5790280742801, "textFts": "'cgp':1 'grey':2", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": 1717105525825, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1168486864748156, "week": -0.43356418786639533, "month": -0.5149729541071142}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:25.676", "probChangeDay": -0.1168486864748156, "probChangeWeek": -0.43356418786639533, "resolutionTime": 1719807000752, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5149729541071142, "resolutionProbability": 0.09}, {"id": "dbj338cqdb", "prob": 0.12, "text": "Brickbending", "index": 2, "poolNo": 91.64263503244798, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 681.9969763840883, "textFts": "'brickbend':1", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": 1717105525825, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1553501083692299, "week": -0.6597838241085041, "month": -0.5876622011774046}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-05-31T22:00:08.928", "probChangeDay": -0.1553501083692299, "probChangeWeek": -0.6597838241085041, "resolutionTime": 1719806969210, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.5876622011774046, "resolutionProbability": 0.12}, {"id": "2ghi82eq4b", "prob": 0.11, "text": "Modern MBA", "index": 3, "poolNo": 89.55410781499388, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 697.9021010305421, "textFts": "'mba':2 'modern':1", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": 1717105525825, "probChanges": {"day": -0.17156382513144255, "week": -0.7602377326906958, "month": -0.7602377326906958}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-01T09:22:04.079", "probChangeDay": -0.17156382513144255, "probChangeWeek": -0.7602377326906958, "resolutionTime": 1719806979924, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.7602377326906958, "resolutionProbability": 0.11}, {"id": "pwz2qy0vm9", "prob": 0.09, "text": "Lockpicking Lawyer", "index": 4, "poolNo": 77.410322825662, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 807.385859128349, "textFts": "'lawyer':2 'lockpick':1", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": 1717105525825, "probChanges": {"day": -0.16642943534858845, "week": -0.8282756670313445, "month": -0.9453908455125785}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T03:42:25.909", "probChangeDay": -0.16642943534858845, "probChangeWeek": -0.8282756670313445, "resolutionTime": 1719807006301, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.9453908455125785, "resolutionProbability": 0.09}, {"id": "suzztamjmv", "prob": 0.96, "text": "Glorb", "index": 5, "poolNo": 1271.1870798256514, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.166641945866786, "textFts": "'glorb':1", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "createdTime": 1717105525825, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.5}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T09:00:05.784", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719170635693, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.5, "resolutionProbability": 0.96}, {"id": "m22d39rvvq", "prob": 0.99, "text": "DaFuq!?Boom! 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0.5092101354942865 | bGNKW02TUMbdx5tzcW90 | {"NO": 472.6964006864805, "YES": 48553.32138914568} | 0 | will-at-least-one-of-the-trump-juro | 53486.67637612902 | Will the name of at least one of the Manhattan trial Trump jurors be known within one month of the verdict? | 1719817140000 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.359756333748966 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717106433250 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a reliable source (NYT, CNN, Fox, etc.) reports that the name of at least one of the 12 jurors in the Manhattan case has been revealed or leaked within one month of May 30th. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alternates do not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the one week version see", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaB/will-the-name-of-at-least-one-of-th", "frameBorder": 0}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.10669366984483226, "month": -0.5935214178808043} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 430.70333229749673, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719856032134 | 5000 | JoshuaB | 1719817140000 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661311952917 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717106433717}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717106433727}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717106433728}] | ["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "trump-indictments"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719780024086 | 1719856027958 | 0.01 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | K5jvdzYCufB2diB80fQY | {"NO": 417.9015490240453, "YES": 2392.908096022543} | 0.14867657429612907 | will-jordan-peterson-interview-trum | 3090.5971130280063 | Will Jordan Peterson interview Trump by election day 2024? | 1730869140000 | rYSQMnCeVlOg7NzUHYrhxUfhF2g1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.692426602169455 | False | basic | public | 1717115932910 | Malarksist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tim Pool released an interview with Trump recently. Will Jordan Peterson also interview him by election day 2024?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.031323425703870866} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 60.62848011836446, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Malarksist | 1718112608316 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714692203167 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717115933174}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717115933170}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717115933179}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717115933189}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717115933238}] | ["politics-default", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718112605156 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I8PDGvVvw3NKhRk4jCz5 | lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-91 | 1000 | [Let's play] Civilization VI (Turn 91) | 1717279140000 | v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717118377596 | komplexkonjugat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's play Civ6!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Anyone can add instructions. Instructions can be composite, but are executed atomically (either fully or not at all). Upon market close I will try to interpret and act out the instructions in the game starting from the highest ranking instructions and progressing downward. Instruction that will obviously never be valid will be removed and resolve N/A. If an instruction doesn't make sense to me, if it is not (currently) possible to execute or if it is incompatible with a higher ranking instruction (fully or partially) it will be skipped. Once all instructions have been iterated over, I will go back over the list of skipped instructions to check if they are now possible to execute, if so they will be removed from the skipped list. This will be repeated until not further actions are possible. Instructions to retire or otherwise explicitly end the game early will not be executed and resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed instructions will resolve YES, skipped instructions will resolve NO. I reserve the right to (mis)interpret the instructions, but will try to be as conscientious as I can.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Once all instructions have been executed the turn will end. If units still have movement points after all instructions are executed the turn will be skipped for them. If there is still some action needed in order to end the turn, I will make a random choice of said action in order to progress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will close at an arbitrary time between 18:00 UTC and 24:00 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want screenshots of other views, please feel free to ask for them and I will provide them as soon as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous turn:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[YES] Execute all instructions in @MattCWilson's comment on this answer. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notifications:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Era score for harbour in Ermagherd", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Booger needs amenities", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Civic boosted: Enlightenment", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Great person recruited: Isaac Newton", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Governor Magnus moved to Craphole", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "World view(s):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fd5Vt8gs7lZ.png?alt=media&token=7d94af5d-2318-4055-9415-39e204410d5d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/j2pY9wm.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuCJlOlcyZX.png?alt=media&token=db6d5f11-da22-4fec-8044-eb0bfeb49bbe", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/rySrvE1.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNSiOIIz-P9.png?alt=media&token=765d69cf-39e6-4b06-a7d8-b8fd4287e420", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/uQryYT9.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCUV1oTOvwq.png?alt=media&token=85f449ab-f3c7-4900-9a1a-dc6ab3e05d26", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/i2JazWs.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6z_xIa9oOv.png?alt=media&token=c0c2ec43-1002-4df4-9699-ad773598813a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/IPyOwqW.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full map view:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FS1Hj48pPuD.png?alt=media&token=9aab47a7-dee8-42b3-a2c0-b112f30f93c5", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(higher resolution)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://i.imgur.com/0Ye1T6j.jpeg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-47", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "Link to market for previous turn.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/lets-play-civilization-vi-turn-90", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Link to side markets.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse/manifoldplaysciv6?s=newest&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=manifoldplaysciv6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": 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0.5000000000000001 | dMj0MKmumcVGbTtpSD9X | {"NO": 1938.0713784317854, "YES": 515.9768681012994} | 0.789744611243794 | elon-musk-and-a-current-or-former-u | 1615 | Elon Musk and a current or former US president appear in a photo together before mid 2025 | 1751324340000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63961447031432 | False | basic | public | 1717119185803 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Photo must be real and taken in person where they both are physically in the same location, after creation of this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.16215990879384545} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.25276401446177, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ernie | 1718045828318 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1717119186057}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717119186090}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718045824481 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | OcLkN5mjmygCBfNt3CeX | {"NO": 1006.7640560088748, "YES": 993.2813890518802} | 0.5033705901509116 | will-i-attend-lessonline | 7 | Will I attend LessOnline? | 1717119775055 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570340394632947 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1717119719127 | nikki | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.23594399112515352, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717119775055 | 1000 | nikki | 1717119775055 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678327601414 | True | 0 | [{"name": "LessOnline", "slug": "lessonline", "groupId": "96d9dff6-14de-4d58-9b38-e88ecde26502", "createdTime": 1717119719459}, {"name": "Less Online", "slug": "less-online", "groupId": "b7c798db-e61f-4ccd-8c0a-27e72cb1fe1d", "createdTime": 1717119719455}] | ["lessonline", "less-online"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717119725730 | 1717119759540 | 0.5 | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | eQTedEJqkPFm92YesSx2 | {"NO": 574.1693745666939, "YES": 1741.6463578446114} | 0.24793396405889806 | will-discord-sign-a-partnership-wit | 3434.7186557886444 | Will Discord sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.618773458204537 | False | basic | public | 1717122910056 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be for a business partnership using their data or product in another way, not just a partnered Discord server.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005469309195496569} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 77.95424808133542, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | strutheo | 1718033330703 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 OpenAI", "slug": "openai", "groupId": "a3ikurqO9fT46Pv9ZGkY", "createdTime": 1717122910307}, {"name": "Discord", "slug": "discord", "groupId": "89c42783-0d57-4e21-8166-0d9d4c3459fd", "createdTime": 1717122910313}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717122910324}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717122910329}, {"name": "💼 Business", "slug": "business", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1717123069187}] | ["openai", "discord", "internet", "ai", "business"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718033327564 | 1717209964065 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution details: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example from a past auction: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This painting by Vigée Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/a-scholar-collects/self-portrait-in-traveling-costume?locale=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". This is the number I will use. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell for any reason (e.g. no bid meets the minimum reserve price), this market resolves NO. It ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "only", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >500,000 GBP.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Painting details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FnBJvDPm0R9.png?alt=media&token=af832a57-fc18-4d64-9aae-33ad95a395da", "title": null}}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Despite his political life and significant literary commitments, Churchill was an inveterate traveler and would take his paints, brushes and easels wherever he went, from trips abroad, to visits with friends around Britain. For Churchill, painting required a set of precise yet intuitive skills that exercised a totally different part of his mind from that used for the cut and thrust of national politics. It was the challenge and difficulty of capturing satisfactorily the scene before him that proved such a tonic to his mind.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Painted in 1946, the present work depicts the view of the rolling hills from the Villa Choisi on the banks of Lac Léman. Arranged by a group of private Siss individuals, that August Churchill spent a holiday in the villa, which was owned by the banker M. Alfred Kern. Churchill spent the holiday in his ideal manner, producing a series of paintings including a still life which he later gifted to Madame Kern, a landscape which is now in the Studio at Chartwell, as well as the present work.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "For more auctions, check out the ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/animated-oscars-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.3833925804661832} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 63.26933277531286, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717697530584 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1717697600172 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717127712968}, {"name": "Arts", "slug": "arts", "groupId": "rvlLWOxULpzwHIaMDePa", "createdTime": 1717127712969}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717127712965}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717127712975}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717127712992}] | ["economics-default", "arts", "politics-default", "entertainment", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717697519250 | 1717697598956 | 0.01 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000008 | AYWXj8IQ68wHX68V77qX | {"NO": 884.4911681038492, "YES": 1130.5935390443472} | 0.43893498122746766 | will-a-rocket-league-bot-team-of-3 | 790 | Will a Rocket League bot team (of 3 car) beat a team of 3 professional human players in a typical series in 2024? | 1735718340000 | oSyhdaaBLYgR3tLXoGgKJzDTxtL2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572673741913178 | False | basic | public | 1717149547889 | Hazel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes when or if there is recorded proof of a Rocket League bot or multiple bots (of a maximum of three cars) beating a team of at a minimum three professional human players in a best out of seven series in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves no if we reach January 1 with this not happening (no recorded proof)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.08465517731604766} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 22.537870402530057, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Hazel | 1719146473899 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715372605659 | 0 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717149548518}, {"name": "Reinforcement Learning", "slug": "reinforcement-learning", "groupId": "13b85663-6ebf-4a1c-acd5-f19cd2bd3b2e", "createdTime": 1717149548517}, {"name": "Rocket League", "slug": "rocket-league", "groupId": "e1ab207c-07f1-4b91-a6a7-eca82e2fb2b1", "createdTime": 1717149548522}] | ["ai", "reinforcement-learning", "rocket-league"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719146470836 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000007 | Ya3ZQS6c1WEn0oBwngcr | {"NO": 1016.3475732981565, "YES": 983.91537134771} | 0 | will-the-first-national-presidentia | 2087.3375968301734 | Will the first national presidential poll including third parties after the Trump trial show Biden leading? (538) | 1717286400000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570374159055408 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717154076551 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the first poll chronologically on this page (sorting by date added) with polling conducted starting on May 31 or later: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A poll must include at least one third-party candidate to count for this question. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.5081069846435092} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.12116597556772, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717600706706 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1717286400000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717154076701}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717154076698}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717154076697}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717170977855}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "politics-default"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717284921499 | 1717600694488 | 0.51 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | i9YlGY4uvpDlxnk57bkT | {"NO": 1119.2657844814732, "YES": 893.4428389261222} | 0.5560992641778977 | will-frank-lampard-be-appointed-as | 350 | Will Frank Lampard be appointed as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC? | 1722549600000 | PFkbNPu9FIRTwCe2xALSsfn4mMI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.572305271430146 | False | basic | public | 1717155243212 | Rowan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumour has it Frank could be back for one last crack at management. Currently favourite for the Burnley job, do you think he'll get it?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if Frank Lampard is appointed as Burnley FC manager before 2nd August 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 11.503628821426334, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Rowan | 1717169082114 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLNi1UQwvxtZOYc72P-AlKjJZWUQMrEp9d2hq_TEna-=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1694350207166 | 0 | [{"name": "⚽ Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1717155243581}] | ["soccer"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717169078998 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
phw49HIl79ChYEsRCnHe | do-you-want-the-number-of-traders-m | 0 | Do you want the 'number of traders' metric back? | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1717161511320 | Daniel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You used to be able to see the number of unique traders a question had next to the liquidity that a question has. (It's still there when you click on the question). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think this is very useful information because it tells you how seriously you should take the prediction of a market, whether you just want to know if it's a reliable prediction or to give you second thought before you bet against the consensus. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The liquidity doesn't tell you this, especially now that it doesn't go up automatically as new traders trade on a market. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | Daniel_MC | 1717210933853 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1678868464369 | 0 | [{"name": "Pivot Predictions", "slug": "pivot-predictions", "groupId": "6iOdS5vCFUBWysZiBH1F", "createdTime": 1717161511493}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717161511495}] | ["pivot-predictions", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.25 | 1717210932887 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | tFnhGN6rq3CilielCxaV | {"NO": 1175.1393027860054, "YES": 850.9629433967647} | 0.58 | will-idf-ground-forces-a-brigade-si | 5592.097614845869 | Will IDF ground forces (a brigade sized force or larger) enter Southern Lebanon before July 31st. | 1722549540000 | AKWq0AetRHTAE7gJ2LiJCNKLj7q1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.574381402805813 | False | basic | public | 1717162793451 | Aubteen Zarafshar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be a large scale invasion (a brigade sized or larger force) into Lebanese territory before July 31st 2024", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.11227867256402219, "month": 0.35356091538243456} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 137.09339799578464, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AubteenZarafshar30dc | 1720010151365 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710352381481 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717162793595}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717162793591}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1717162793596}, {"name": "🐪 Middle East", "slug": "middle-east", "groupId": "xg8wCPeM9JP6gD0igBrA", "createdTime": 1717162793590}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717162793596}] | ["wars", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "middle-east", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720010148241 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fJ5Vx28NTUMMvnKuNMvQ | uk-general-election-2024-who-will-w | 10672.166532125628 | UK General Election 2024 - Who will win the first debate? | 1717785062399 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | eqom8hs7qk | public | 1717162881941 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer is due to take place on Tuesday 4th June - exactly a month before the election itself. Markets on whether there will be a debate and how many there will be are here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "X1ZmtTd6aB0IxlKTyBm6", "label": "/NoitUK/will-there-be-a-televised-debate-be"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "oqMEdlbmnK8EYx54gAGq", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-how-many-t"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would expect recognised pollsters like YouGov to run polls on who the winner of the debate. According to an average of the polls released by members of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "British Polling Council", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Polling_Council", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in the 48 hours after the debate, who will be seen as the winner?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will only consider proper statistically valid polling rather than self-selecting polls such as Twitter polls. Regular polls put out by British Polling Council members will meet this bar.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will be based on headline figures from the main debate question from each of these polls - a question such as \"who do you think won the debate\", \"which leader did you prefer\" or \"who are you more likely to vote for on the basis of this debate\". If the poll asks multiple questions about the debate, it should be obvious which question is the main one, but I will use my judgement here if I have to.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution will be based on an average of any polls published within the time. So if one poll has Starmer as the winner by 10 points and two other polls have Sunak as the winner by 2 points, the market will resolve to Starmer", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In case the resolution of this market needs to be subjective, I will not trade on this market myself", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.91463883430131, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717785062399 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1717785062399 | 0 | 30 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ebbj86uz86", "prob": 0.009787138635170578, "text": "Rishi Sunak", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.14945496576755, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3556.242909647952, "textFts": "'rishi':1 'sunak':2", "contractId": "fJ5Vx28NTUMMvnKuNMvQ", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717162881941, "probChanges": {"day": -0.01871183705703376, "week": -0.10114590629610336, "month": -0.32354619469816276}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:07.867", "probChangeDay": -0.01871183705703376, "probChangeWeek": -0.10114590629610336, "resolutionTime": 1717785062399, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.32354619469816276}, {"id": "eqom8hs7qk", "prob": 0.9794645195447573, "text": "Keir Starmer", "index": 1, "poolNo": 2441.7259944197285, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 51.19329535159659, "textFts": "'keir':1 'starmer':2", "contractId": "fJ5Vx28NTUMMvnKuNMvQ", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717162881941, "probChanges": {"day": 0.04284096824489947, "week": 0.251363601853156, "month": 0.6461311862114241}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:07.868", "probChangeDay": 0.04284096824489947, "probChangeWeek": 0.251363601853156, "resolutionTime": 1717785062399, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.6461311862114241}, {"id": "k61vlchhep", "prob": 0.010748341820072093, "text": "Debate is cancelled / no polling / dead heat", "index": 2, "poolNo": 36.85295762471263, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3391.8580232534005, "textFts": "'cancel':3 'dead':6 'debat':1 'heat':7 'poll':5", "contractId": "fJ5Vx28NTUMMvnKuNMvQ", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717162881941, "probChanges": {"day": -0.024129131187865638, "week": -0.15021769555705275, "month": -0.3225849915132612}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T20:00:07.868", "probChangeDay": -0.024129131187865638, "probChangeWeek": -0.15021769555705275, "resolutionTime": 1717785062399, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3225849915132612}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717162882233}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717162882282}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717162882287}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1717162882309}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717162882328}] | ["uk-politics", "debate", "politics-default", "uk", "-uk-general-election-2024"] | 0.25 | 1717750322061 | 1717743558639 | {"eqom8hs7qk": 100} | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | Dz1f1GEYmsZLYzYUo7dc | {"NO": 393.7425590764278, "YES": 2539.73053445283} | 0.13422402269342681 | will-prince-harry-divorce-meghan-ma | 1874.806319460852 | Will prince Harry divorce Meghan Markel in 2025 | 1717275540000 | YFY85cEKseUHQT3JGvTDU55uL6o2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.710269417339553 | False | basic | public | 1717163739655 | lkering@yahoo.co.uk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tabloids claim that prince Harry and Meghan Markel are in a tempestous marriage", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.73903391433715, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | lkeringyahoocouk | 1717269760082 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjWURoAE7sx3i0aYFgYB16WidijM_JympZFHWkOPQOo3VMwiXg=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717163397956 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717163739819}, {"name": "Royalty 👑", "slug": "royalty", "groupId": "3d2fc39b-5598-464b-8ab5-871846327c53", "createdTime": 1717163739824}, {"name": "British Royal Family", "slug": "british-royal-family", "groupId": "6668be77-525c-43eb-b53f-e74a6c36fb4c", "createdTime": 1717163739825}] | ["uk-politics", "royalty", "british-royal-family"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717269756952 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000001 | w9rqsyxSCaNDBzzOft5J | {"NO": 1082.7286361440752, "YES": 923.5924557803357} | 0.539658701940651 | will-a-lifetime-smoking-ban-become-gnv7ck20pf | 8142.412915967094 | Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024? | 1841353140000 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57228698435367 | False | basic | public | 1717163781878 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2023, Rishi Sunak announced that he will be putting forward legislation for a \"lifetime smoking ban\". This would mean that the age for buying cigarettes will rise by one year every year and that anyone born after a cutoff date (proposed to be 1st January 2009) will never be able to legally buy cigarettes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This legislation was presented to Parliament as the Tobacco and Vapes Bill 2024:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/tobacco-and-vapes-bill-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/tobacco-and-vapes-bill-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the previous market on this subject, we thought that it was looking pretty certain that the generational smoking ban would become law during Sunak's time as Prime Minister, but this became impossible once he called a general election for July:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wluc4fM8Bc1oGwhq0q5m", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-a-lifetime-smoking-ban-become"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The bill passed its second Commons reading comfortably despite some noisy opposition from the libertarian wing of Sunak's party.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The legislative process would need to start from scratch with a new government, but the bill had plenty of support from Labour so there is every reason to think that the next government will reintroduce this legislation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To become law, the legislation will have to clear three hurdles:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pass the House of Commons", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pass the House of Lords", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Receive Royal Assent (this should be a formality)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it pass all three hurdles before the next general election after 4th July 2024? This is expected to be in 2028 or 2029.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the legislation is modified or amended so that the permanent automatic ramping up isn't in place to take the smoking age up to at least 50 without further legislation (eg. the legislation only lasts for a few years and then needs further legislation or the automatic ratcheting up only goes up to 30 rather than 50+), this market will resolve to NO", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0620442094546817} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 191.73690076721928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1718642152148 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1717163782050}, {"name": "Smokefree 2030", "slug": "smokefree-2030", "groupId": "ALjWYlvlNBrVemGyBAqR", "createdTime": 1717163782054}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717163782051}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1717163782057}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717163782062}] | ["health", "smokefree-2030", "public-health", "uk", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718642149078 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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TBYNAnqaCZmeAHJ7P2Qa | which-names-will-be-used-for-hurric | 8532.422934688748 | Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2024 Hurricane Season? | 1735714740000 | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717166835070 | Gabrielle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaZ9AO6Zhzn.png?alt=media&token=be26542b-94f8-4fd9-b88d-286e60848c88", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which 2024 tropical cyclone names will be used for hurricanes? 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6te0Vpb1CCLm1MBJ975d | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-we-aqgfbnb5lv | 3335.3931456649984 | What will be true of the xkcd on Wednesday, June 5th, 2024? | 1717559940000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717168855852 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EARLY BECAUSE NEXT WEEK I WILL HAVE 3 DISTINCT DAYS OF DRIVING 5+ HOURS", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A, with the exception of any questions regarding whether or not the xkcd is posted late. 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Rk0dN9qzOsk6VQ20GSW8 | what-will-be-true-of-the-xkcd-on-fr-bwdw2i86e5 | 4018.1884682338045 | What will be true of the xkcd on Friday, June 7th, 2024? | 1717732740000 | yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717169001354 | EBurk | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EARLY BECAUSE NEXT WEEK I WILL HAVE 3 DISTINCT DAYS OF DRIVING 5+ HOURS", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve any answers to these questions as soon as I see the xkcd posted for the given day and have time to resolve. If it ever appears that the post was skipped (I don’t see anything before the next usual post day) I will resolve all answers to N/A, with the exception of any questions regarding whether or not the xkcd is posted late. 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If you believe that there is potentially a vague option, feel free to comment so we can address the issue as early as possible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 94.19688517203701, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717795542471 | 1750 | EBurk | 1717732740000 | 0 | 18 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "vs5xvwpjtg", "prob": 0.76, "text": "The comic will have exactly one panel", "index": 0, "poolNo": 439.7396974895834, "userId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 142.12953789890764, "textFts": "'comic':2 'exact':5 'one':6 'panel':7", "contractId": "Rk0dN9qzOsk6VQ20GSW8", "resolution": "YES", "resolverId": "yCEJKMJLIic6ei3w3zAgJTjI1Ex2", "createdTime": 1717169001354, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.07785910974717225, "month": 0.25573629046737045}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": 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XB9QwIiyWvAuTJG3rTQn | uk-general-election-2024-who-will-f | 28735.48118788591 | UK General Election 2024 - who will field more candidates, Reform UK or the Conservative Party? | 1717915915635 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | fx7tiwsucu | public | 1717172010795 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reform UK have committed to running candidates in most seats in the UK. Predictors are pretty divided about whether they're going to manage to do it:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Vqlel5shoIBN16Kz8UwF", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-refor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, with only one week to go until nominations close on Friday 7th June, it looks like the Conservatives actually have far fewer candidates selected and ready to go than Reform UK do:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1796501288517337319"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once nominations have closed, will it turn out that Reform are actually running in more seats than the Tories? Or will the usual Conservative Party machine come roaring back to life?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If both parties field exactly the same number of candidates, I will resolve this market as 50% to both options.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.76537183265874, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717915915635 | 1000 | SimonGrayson | 1720053161621 | 0 | 28 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3qe9u9zlu8", "prob": 0.0012234399056009644, "text": "Reform UK", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.499561025193998, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14286.07264148365, "textFts": "'reform':1 'uk':2", "contractId": "XB9QwIiyWvAuTJG3rTQn", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717172010795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.17512577059989945}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:13.404", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717915915635, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": -0.17512577059989945}, {"id": "fx7tiwsucu", "prob": 0.9987765600943991, "text": "Conservative Party", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 14286.072641483725, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 17.499561025193998, "textFts": "'conserv':1 'parti':2", "contractId": "XB9QwIiyWvAuTJG3rTQn", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717172010795, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.17512577059989953}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T21:00:13.405", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1717915915635, "totalLiquidity": 500.00000000000006, "probChangeMonth": 0.17512577059989953}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717172011128}, {"name": "Reform UK", "slug": "reform-uk", "groupId": "bd4e6880-3ac1-42fc-a0fd-9d7867bde8e2", "createdTime": 1717172011134}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1717172011137}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1717172011132}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717172011164}] | ["-uk-general-election-2024", "reform-uk", "uk", "uk-conservative-party", "uk-politics"] | 0.25 | 1717903987813 | 1717915943443 | {"fx7tiwsucu": 100} | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | K9nTjDpkO2WRSR2GBW27 | {"NO": 1350.4593756793518, "YES": 740.4887684954982} | 0.6458598121821355 | did-the-explosive-may-26-2024-rafah | 2187.2432223855008 | Did the explosive May 26 2024 Rafah strike by Israel hit a Palestinian weapons cache? | 1735707540000 | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586214559388686 | False | basic | public | 1717173163959 | mongo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 26th, 2024 Israel struck Rafah in an attack to target two senior Hamas members. It sparked a fire a fire and reportedly killed 45 other people. Times of Israel reports that the strike may have hit a hidden store of weapons and that is the reason why the fire was so large, but that has not yet been confirmed to my knowledge.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will take inspiration from this market in how I resolve:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/did-the-idf-just-now-blow-up-a-hosp", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/did-the-idf-just-now-blow-up-a-hosp", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Copy-pasting some relevant notes in how I will resolve:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the answer is unclear, I will resolve it to my best guess of the median informed observers' subjective probability based on all reliable sources.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Reliable sources\" includes both reliable primary and secondary sources. I will be interpreting all of the evidence I can to make a decision, not just taking the word of particular media outlets. I will also be evaluating (with a grain of salt) any released evidence or assessments from the IDF, USA, and Gaza, taking into account that these are biased parties and they may be lying or otherwise not giving us the full story.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with. If I personally have some galaxy brain interpretation of the evidence that I don't think Average Joe Rationalist or disinterested manifold users would endorse, and that interpretation hasn't appeared anywhere in the media and is just my invention, I'll leave that at the door and stick to the apparent facts of the case.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03615692052703612, "month": 0.12787037104654475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.2468471489725, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mongo | 1719885495540 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | 30 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675469090876 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717173164117}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717173164121}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717173164118}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717173164131}, {"name": "🇵🇸 Palestine", "slug": "palestine", "groupId": "1de63cc6-7700-472a-a943-e67cb4d3e07d", "createdTime": 1717173164135}] | ["wars", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "world-default", "israel", "palestine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719885491428 | 1718515741012 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | OcPZIDjHL6NDOxPMjI7c | {"NO": 814.1118094714373, "YES": 1228.332507115026} | 0.3985968199280274 | will-george-russell-outlast-his-nex | 550 | Will George Russell outlast his next teammate (after Lewis Hamilton) at Mercedes? | 1923973140000 | BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576911673765599 | False | basic | public | 1717174115358 | pitstop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Russell holds his Mercedes F1 seat for longer than whoever replaces Lewis Hamilton.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Russell loses his Mercedes F1 seat for any reason prior (including leaving of his own volition) to his next teammate.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves N/A if they both lose their Mercedes F1 seats at the same time. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is based on the time they both stop racing for Mercedes. So, for example, if in mid-2026 Russell is announced as a driver for another team starting in 2027 and then later in 2026 the teammate is announced as not driving for Mercedes in 2027, this would resolve N/A. However, in the example above if the driver lost their seat in the middle of the 2026 season (and therefore stopped racing in 2026) this would resolves YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Temporary loss of seat due to injury, suspension, discipline or temporary benching do not resolve this question.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question may resolve when contract/news has settled it, rather than waiting for the driver to literally not race any more.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.016521088446764476} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.56285642951034, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | pitstop | 1717836839015 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661266134199 | 0 | [{"name": "Mercedes F1", "slug": "mercedes-f1", "groupId": "cbed80ab-1b17-4ae9-b068-b0705aa5a5e6", "createdTime": 1717174115625}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1717174115623}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY", "createdTime": 1717174115620}] | ["mercedes-f1", "auto-racing", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717836835894 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g | with-the-third-human-case-of-h5n1-b | 5262.362730567521 | With the third human case of H5N1 Bird Flu reported in US, how many human cases will be confirmed in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717175763080 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 31st the third human case was confirmed, and the second in Michigan. All cases so far have involved farm workers with proximity to infected cattle.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fz26sX297jP.11?alt=media&token=590b438b-70eb-42c2-886e-4a83fde61975", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve based on consensus of media reports.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 127.87563155420608, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720052326263 | 0 | 31 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "663l76t1c9", "prob": 0.5170674224122503, "text": "Less than 10 cases", "index": 0, "poolNo": 258.6844631008789, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 241.6070886160141, "textFts": "'10':3 'case':4 'less':1", "contractId": "RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g", "createdTime": 1717175763081, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10224614666000326, "week": 0.10224614666000326, "month": 0.3359781761635309}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.76", "probChangeDay": 0.10224614666000326, "probChangeWeek": 0.10224614666000326, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.3359781761635309}, {"id": "dt9v4ccrx", "prob": 0.37222916369668374, "text": "10-100 cases", "index": 1, "poolNo": 192.50616344701348, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 324.6649295839449, "textFts": "'-100':2 '10':1 'case':3", "contractId": "RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g", "createdTime": 1717175763081, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12344178427973074, "week": -0.12344178427973074, "month": 0.10538417438269337}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.76", "probChangeDay": -0.12344178427973074, "probChangeWeek": -0.12344178427973074, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.10538417438269337}, {"id": "o6vlkdz35t", "prob": 0.1319088961221657, "text": "100-1,000 cases", "index": 2, "poolNo": 97.45281730508763, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 641.3359995980043, "textFts": "'-1':2 '000':3 '100':1 'case':4", "contractId": "RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g", "createdTime": 1717175763081, "probChanges": {"day": -0.003974777517723044, "week": -0.11809110387783453, "month": -0.20787543746460305}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.757", "probChangeDay": -0.003974777517723044, "probChangeWeek": -0.11809110387783453, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.20787543746460305}, {"id": "zsf0r5dq7q", "prob": 0.07213417904648754, "text": "1,001+ cases", "index": 3, "poolNo": 69.70564766742942, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 896.6274913360237, "textFts": "'001':2 '1':1 'case':3", "contractId": "RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g", "createdTime": 1717175763081, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.028464126189873165, "month": -0.1462414547528864}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T19:42:06.757", "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.028464126189873165, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.1462414547528864}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1717175763314}, {"name": "Pandemic", "slug": "pandemic", "groupId": "5OlW5cUQPgx5A9W1OPnp", "createdTime": 1717175763320}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717175763306}] | ["h5n1-bird-flu", "pandemic", "public-health"] | 0.25 | 1720052323170 | 1720034340706 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49860294347381307 | zutDEtzXJq9pvcrSsRgd | {"NO": 1922.4689515952584, "YES": 2081.102539121455} | 0.4787937819541193 | will-someone-die-from-or-with-h5n1 | 8874.261728342284 | Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.134134582156703 | False | basic | public | 1717176004752 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Third human case was confirmed on May 31st.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "So far all US dairy workers.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will resolve Yes based on media reports. To avoid confusion anyone who dies WITH H5N1 Bird Flu *in the United States of America* will count. The death has to be confirmed in consensus of media reports by end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.05263368319858136, "week": -0.10133184040455084, "month": -0.1037013076444801} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 237.99366732354852, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 189 | 2000 | Moscow25 | 1720244168589 | 0 | 68 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1717176005063}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717176005059}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "createdTime": 1717176005072}] | ["h5n1-bird-flu", "public-health", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720244165500 | 1720199916611 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4795690597815845 | y4hNixQSf3WLAeK1dcH9 | {"NO": 1285.5212126010065, "YES": 2673.802522642374} | 0.3070160809260658 | will-x-meta-snapchat-instagram-yout | 1074 | Will X, Meta, Snapchat, instagram, YouTube, twitch or TikTok ANNOUNCE a name change before the end of Q2 2025? | 1751428740000 | 7Zfy9bUDSscO94DPcNJNm8KrT3F2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.484973567567797 | False | basic | public | 1717176032319 | Rillaboom27 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any of the above social media companies ANNOUNCE a complete company rebrand, not just a feature before Jul 1, 2025", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08550867102214066} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.684309945035864, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1831 | Rillaboom27 | 1718280422891 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhCwCShHnyGWuaQpQROwcdenijvJlNL0xMMLa79w2sAiRFxNuW=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713055801596 | 0 | [{"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1717176032500}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1717176032510}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1717176032520}, {"name": "Snapchat", "slug": "snapchat", "groupId": "85464663-7ef9-42da-a48f-ea22d0699ee8", "createdTime": 1717176032514}, {"name": "Instagram", "slug": "instagram", "groupId": "370b76c9-371f-43cb-b1a3-e27e25a97f04", "createdTime": 1717176032533}] | ["social-media", "twitter", "tiktok", "snapchat", "instagram"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718007820568 | 1718280421553 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL | predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-shi | 12230.862090040011 | Predominant color of Joe Biden's shirt at the debate on June 27 | 1719566477765 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 4i1ljhh5mh | public | 1717178660688 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolves to N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same Market for Trump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Base/predominant-color-of-trumps-shirt-a", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.27172012128081, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719566480727 | 1000 | Base | 1719566477765 | 0 | 30 | 6 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4i1ljhh5mh", "prob": 0.9943891938544012, "text": "White", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4706.743944846972, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.557637607809824, "textFts": "'white':1", "contractId": "juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717178660688, "probChanges": {"day": 0.25411669462841957, "week": 0.38118487282836, "month": 0.6599090809573938}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T04:21:21.606", "probChangeDay": 0.25411669462841957, "probChangeWeek": 0.38118487282836, "resolutionTime": 1719566480727, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.6599090809573938}, {"id": "f31acgwcc6", "prob": 0.0026815382698280052, "text": "Blue", "index": 1, "poolNo": 18.33285388026593, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6818.360131837147, "textFts": "'blue':1", "contractId": "juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717178660688, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1609325733129772, "week": -0.2633288315604939, "month": -0.3299183406208099}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T04:21:21.604", "probChangeDay": -0.1609325733129772, "probChangeWeek": -0.2633288315604939, "resolutionTime": 1719566480727, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3299183406208099}, {"id": "okuddp1v1h", "prob": 0.0029292678757708132, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 19.163355965253345, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 6522.865839712407, "textFts": "", "contractId": "juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime": 1717178660688, "probChanges": {"day": -0.09318412131544232, "week": -0.11785604126786597, "month": -0.32999074033658377}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": "2024-06-03T04:21:21.606", "probChangeDay": -0.09318412131544232, "probChangeWeek": -0.11785604126786597, "resolutionTime": 1719566480727, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.32999074033658377}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717178660932}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717178660934}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "createdTime": 1717178660935}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717178660940}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717178660924}] | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "debate", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1719566475420 | 1719536623328 | {"4i1ljhh5mh": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mlUOpWwlwfxLlldEzbn2 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | sidder-nicolai-dyhr-i-fngsel-inden | 0 | Sidder Nicolai Dyhr i fængsel inden udgangen af 2024? | 1735685940000 | fuZkJXlrvPVTNZmTFRSfUpo0zcJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1717179693013 | Glorious Spearfish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ja hvis Nicolai Dyhr sidder eller har siddet i fængsel inden 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | gloriousspearfish | 1717179979862 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717177002946 | 0 | [{"name": "DK", "slug": "dk", "groupId": "88f66fc7-b2b7-4a30-9e72-270263fceeaf", "createdTime": 1717179693149}] | ["dk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ivJ839PyYNFV8p14RTVA | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-value-claims-in-particular-are | 50 | Will "Value Claims (In Particular) Are Usually Bullshit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1717180343968 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Value Claims (In Particular) Are Usually Bullshit", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/afjTwyudcQfGe8AAq/value-claims-in-particular-are-usually-bullshit", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717187890634 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717180344180}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717187887511 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | QAlWiKWrorzm0JV5lldO | {"NO": 822.783795968272, "YES": 1215.3861134603117} | 0.40368753957266834 | will-there-be-a-public-photo-of-tru | 1471.968532377892 | Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024? | 1735707540000 | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576250166952434 | False | basic | public | 1717180419621 | For Truth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any photo of Trump performing Community Service emerges at any point in 2024. Such a photo might originate from his own political campaign, or from a spectator or journalist. I will do my best to verify that the photo is in fact real and not AI generated or otherwise faked.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO if 2024 ends and this market has not yet resolved YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything legally mandated by a court as Community Service counts, but only if a photo of him actually performing that service emerges. Anything which is broadly reported as Community Service also counts (e.g. if Trump personally plants some trees and calls it Community Service in campaigning materials with a photo.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any questions or requests for clarifications are welcome. As normal, I will not be trading in my own market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.06497647345782376} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.62117828256939, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ForTruth | 1718786517398 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714184615024 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717180419768}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717180419766}, {"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-a89c-61ea2078317f", "createdTime": 1717180419773}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717180419784}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717180419779}] | ["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "trump-indictments", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718786514294 | 1717180929878 | 0 |
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