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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
rRbwkx30xVNg9If0l4sk | golangs-gopher-mascot | 0 | Golangs gopher mascot | 1719719940000 | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717043933469 | Blomfilter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Would you prefer a more abstract logo than a bulgey eyed rodent?", "type": "text"}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719719940178 | Blomfilter | 1717095881577 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSH6fQxSTWq.04?alt=media&token=b3a5cdfc-e071-4792-966e-daf9b07e4626 | 1677201572009 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717046870551}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1717046877460}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC"... | ["technology-default", "programming", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | 1717053712639 | ["q6jb1ht1l7"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23777675625317665 | UvlwZZLnUwkL9VgQwwFb | {"NO": 4011.1479625215497, "YES": 24594.303447956256} | 0.048413834859845704 | president-joe-biden-involved-in-an | 17584 | President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024? | 1717050556100 | SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.560961109060088 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1717047188591 | Quadrifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 174.97679542576552, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717050556100 | 10000 | Quadrifold | 1717053089642 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692341243629 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717047189258}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717047189261}, {"name": "🌎 Geopolitics", "slug": "geopoli... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "geopolitics", "plane-crash", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717048688862 | 1717053088156 | 0.05 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
n35e2kaSTcVknD8swInE | will-tomorrow-be-a-good-day | 0 | Will tomorrow be a good day? | 1717221540000 | INF6kpcRCldtxUKD54YVHlUcbw92 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717049655585 | Casey The Grip Lord | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717221540739 | CaseyTheGripLord | 1717049656021 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ1E9ECVvoorolYIyCKfr_-sNB-49YO-HpqFJHbM9IzTPIYiZeD=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715975256334 | 0 | [{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1717049656018}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717049656021}] | ["economics-default", "culture-default"] | 0.25 | ["8hxnjyxbxw"] | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | W98ZzyNBGDzrQkffdDdk | {"NO": 164.4398016831245, "YES": 6081.2527731394175} | 0.02632851356565478 | president-joe-biden-involved-in-an-x7cg74qn52 | 7682.541109377644 | President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024? | 1735660740000 | SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.879397106184037 | False | basic | public | 1717051043546 | Quadrifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -0.00811977997092522} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 53.24297394708795, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Quadrifold | 1718786582921 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1692341243629 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1717051043874}, {"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717051043863}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of... | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "plane-crash", "probability"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718786579823 | 1717169688563 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | rKGDO1xfx8p5DSGhPLRB | {"NO": 315.5619178549316, "YES": 3168.950191447731} | 0.0905612917838543 | will-my-cat-die-this-week-or-next-w | 3190.407620341348 | will my cat die this week or nah? | 1717689540000 | d6gReYVHeVNmoXadzf5mcV5W79a2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.788529842300914 | False | basic | public | 1717051158419 | CALIGULA | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "my cat hasnt been eating as much as its used to", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.014368668257780798} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.743491122201135, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CALIGULA | 1717685156291 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLk6Y3P6dsnk6zEUBuGCz7C5v8W1wCCHSyg0tPGCRm6fjH9ojiE=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717050572901 | 0 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1717051158723}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717051158733}] | ["science-default", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717685153157 | 1717080598716 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
T2AldkG2yOuJWmtR3p5R | uk-general-election-2024-how-many-s | 0 | UK General Election 2024 - How many seats will the Conservative Party win? | 1717052707231 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717052689334 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One week into the general election campaign and the Tories remain pretty consistently 20 points behind Labour in the polling averages.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's an expectation th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717052746851 | 1750 | SimonGrayson | 1717052833001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "zsbkp56vku", "prob": 0.5, "text": "0-49", "index": 0, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 250, "textFts": "'-49':2 '0':1", "contractId": "T2AldkG2yOuJWmtR3p5R", "resolution": "CANCEL", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "createdTime": 1717052689334, ... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1717052689653}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1717052689657}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-ge... | ["uk-politics", "uk-conservative-party", "-uk-general-election-2024", "uk"] | 0.25 | 1717052831684 | 0.5 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JzezlmrzDI5q0IxzWrU1 | uk-general-election-2024-how-many-s-qzm55nj4xt | 40009.9525512419 | UK General Election 2024 - How many seats will the Conservative Party win? | 1720175455432 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | bdhzidtuz8 | public | 1717052772274 | Simon Grayson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One week into the general election campaign and the Tories remain pretty consistently 20 points behind Labour in the polling averages.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's an expectation th... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 473.424917864425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 4250 | 1720175455432 | 1750 | SimonGrayson | 1720175455432 | 0 | 63 | 21 | DISABLED | [{"id": "g27hujs7e8", "prob": 0.001966712070208201, "text": "0-49", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.857338829666332, "userId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8047.010159607782, "textFts": "'-49':2 '0':1", "contractId": "JzezlmrzDI5q0IxzWrU1", "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "created... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680512856506 | 0 | [{"name": "🇬🇧 UK General Election 2024", "slug": "-uk-general-election-2024", "groupId": "129aecae-5af3-4f32-b369-9c46a4c5c6a0", "createdTime": 1717052772720}, {"name": "🇬🇧 UK", "slug": "uk", "groupId": "m9vlFjXUHNgGgU9OLK1Y", "createdTime": 1717052772761}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "groupId": ... | ["-uk-general-election-2024", "uk", "uk-politics", "uk-conservative-party"] | 0.25 | 1720166183565 | 1717052923316 | {"bdhzidtuz8": 100} | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000019 | 8Up5Fete5pibl3970vK0 | {"NO": 2383.407655265087, "YES": 419.56733578115586} | 0.8503135642945766 | will-a-crystal-market-with-m1000000 | 29120.995488504817 | Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July? | 1722466740000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.606712070492844 | False | basic | public | 1717053203353 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since liquidity is returned to the creator upon resolution, some ground rules to prevent whale abuse:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market must a... | BINARY | {"day": -0.07791840379071435, "week": -0.07791840379071435, "month": 0.5147404695503939} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 325.56073197937866, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 388.47796408321875 | 1000 | DanMan314 | 1720204374583 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720204371440 | 1718313654560 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | PRLqMmO6BodAgs9lTbZl | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-responsible-scaling-policies-a | 50 | Will "Responsible Scaling Policies Are Risk Managem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1717053471901 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.006631514058876714} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1718869193113 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717053472202}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1718869190048 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | AfnSVV1wVfw6DANJtRWE | {"NO": 2209.604702469766, "YES": 452.56963785525363} | 0.83 | will-i-become-a-master-on-codeforce | 25043.815638533528 | Will I become a master on Codeforces by the end of August? | 1725141540000 | 6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.634935965287092 | False | basic | public | 1717053537866 | Patrik Cihal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is my Codeforces profile: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/0npata", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/0npata", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.0751020466693968, "month": 0.04000000000000015} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 404.0123673816603, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | patrik | 1720150712093 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690398218800 | 0 | [{"name": "🖥️ Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1717053538097}, {"name": "Competitive Programming", "slug": "competitive-programming", "groupId": "ebfc51ef-eff4-4813-9ae7-0573e0b15da6", "createdTime": 1717053538103}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programmin... | ["technology-default", "competitive-programming", "programming"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720150709003 | 1717347175841 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | gV8tqDuKczLOR6WNHrWu | {"NO": 1031.9010437756253, "YES": 969.0851715209992} | 0 | will-i-post-a-sequence-on-ai-alignm | 33 | Will I post a sequence on AI alignment to LessWrong before July 1? | 1717743540000 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570486434810464 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717054449954 | Savior of Plant | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a rough draft of part of the sequence ready and feel like it might be somewhat valuable, but I would like people to review it first, and I don't want to post it if I feel like it doesn't meet the epistemic standards of the site. I do not hav... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5156962281335143, "month": -0.5156962281335143} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0989562243747202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719861609084 | 1000 | SaviorofPlant | 1717743540000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698371327350 | 0 | [{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1717054450233}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1717054450234}, {"name": "🤖❤️ AI Alignment", "slug": "ai-alignment", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR",... | ["personal-goals", "ai-safety", "ai-alignment", "lesswrong"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717064090859 | 0.52 | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH | manifold-american-english-pronuncia | 69762.13566315571 | Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide | 1719115140000 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717091838279 | Stop Punting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer contains a question: Should the list relevant word be pronounced the first way, or the second way? Bet NO for the way on the left, or YES for the way on the right according to your opinion. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1057.2826063889647, "platformFee": 57.2826063889648, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719896401618 | 6850 | StopPunting | 1719988657656 | 0 | 141 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "kxyl09mxu0", "prob": 0.08, "text": "Caramel - \"care-ra-mel\" (NO) or \"car-ml\" (YES) ", "index": 0, "poolNo": 72.20775503130515, "userId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 865.5579995930303, "textFts": "'car':9 'car-ml':8 'caramel':1 'care':3 'care-ra-mel':2 'mel':5 'ml':10 'ra':... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668545009927 | 0 | [{"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1717091838735}, {"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1717091838733}, {"name": "Language", "slug": "language", "groupId": "tegXqevnSJSDlH... | ["culture-default", "entertainment", "language", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-debate"] | 0.25 | 1719013909277 | 1719988655794 | 0.04 | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | False | new | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zojxoxFmMdy4eIkLILXd | how-are-you-living | 0 | How are you living? | 1719806340000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | True | public | 1717093174269 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719806340161 | Predictor | 1717093174729 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644461353687 | 0 | [{"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1717093174729}] | ["polls"] | 0.25 | ["t7jci3pzor"] | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
zr1MibMZUcbBt5kGmlkq | festival-personal-predictions-what | 6242.236850558963 | Festival Personal Predictions: What will attendees say they did while attending Manifest / Less Online / Summer Camp? | 1718002740000 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717096792125 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All answers resolve NO by default", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if I am not told to resolve them to YES by the person who submit... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 72.72655951453241, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718135087955 | 1750 | Joshua | 1718002740000 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "ab6lugeydv", "prob": 0.56, "text": "@Joshua will change his mind about something significant", "index": 0, "poolNo": 280.80669416244285, "userId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 222.57304152387704, "textFts": "'chang':3 'joshua':1 'mind':5 'signific':8 'someth':7", "contractId": "... | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1645516283433 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717096792563}, {"name": "🔮 Manifest", "slug": "manifest", "groupId": "319ffc9e-7194-4bfb-8f1b-54d826d036e3", "createdTime": 1717096792571}, {"name": "Manifest 2024", "slug": "manifest-2024", "groupId": "93dd506... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifest", "manifest-2024", "nonpredictive"] | 0.25 | False | 1717974739276 | 1718131384903 | 0.66 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | False | new | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1STu5FsWBOg9N36DS5On | if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h | 8882.372259610123 | If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true? | 2524723140000 | v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717101510659 | Krantz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Intended as a survey of individuals in Manifold about which, possibly controversial, propositions do you think are important to be included in a constitution designed to steer the general behavior of decentralized AI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 133.21282094062738, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 4600 | Krantz | 1718296013124 | 0 | 19 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "xmite004hu", "prob": 0.931552474928994, "text": "The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 922.2842579265439, "userId": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 67.76652584368178, "textFts": "'... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1710040515504 | 0 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717101511034}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1717101511042}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "ai"] | 0.25 | 1718296009948 | 1717135849126 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | ErxIjAgOACySzxmvFUAa | {"NO": 917.0345883025923, "YES": 1090.4714094273963} | 0.4568029133360201 | will-moana-2s-opening-weekend-domes | 622 | Will Moana 2's opening weekend domestic box office gross exceed $100 million? | 1733439540000 | VceLIk2vHlaTmIbBeCUAISXK5LZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.57149824024118 | False | basic | public | 1717105281264 | Carlo Lepelaars | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "News: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/culture/moana-2-trailer-sets-disney-animated-record-178m-views-24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/culture/moana-2-trailer-sets-disney-anim... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.413776111390593, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarloLepelaars | 1717185953220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKMoFAQsfBzQbbF23Ohab_oKwG5hJGMhszqhsiKQ6n80nlZNddc=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715707339487 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717185950094 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5 | 32242.545867420326 | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold? | 1719775650757 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | agrdigdu07 | public | 1717105365380 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Decided by LIKES on the comments below after market close, 'Other' will not be eligible to win.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be related to Manifold in some way by my judgement, and n... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 221.90438576217335, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719775650757 | 2000 | strutheo | 1719775650757 | 0 | 58 | 3 | ANYONE | [{"id": "j4bhkj2ym5", "prob": 0.007060291840621155, "text": "ideal counterparty - joshua", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.302953899758535, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 4542.997136941325, "textFts": "'counterparti':2 'ideal':1 'joshua':3", "contractId": "rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa", "resolv... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "Memes", "slug": "memes", "groupId": "f6ce5eff-b30b-4f6f-ac41-639ad7a88786", "createdTime": 1717105365766}, {"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1717105365769}, {"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", ... | ["memes", "manifold-6748e065087e", "internet", "funny", "manifold-users"] | 0.25 | 1719771078251 | 1719287826047 | {"agrdigdu07": 100} | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | True | prob-desc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH | which-youtube-channels-will-release-wkgauivkam | 78789.41793233932 | ▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | 1719806340000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1717105525825 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shorts do not count, Livestreams do not count, but uploaded videos in the main Video tab that are made from streams do count", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 759.0935283978832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719809026107 | 10650 | strutheo | 1719814101908 | 0 | 61 | 10 | ANYONE | [{"id": "shfwwbh9dd", "prob": 0.08, "text": "Joseph Anderson", "index": 0, "poolNo": 73.60433717747918, "userId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 849.1347439118479, "textFts": "'anderson':2 'joseph':1", "contractId": "T9BClzVSR3grvKRWCApH", "resolution": "NO", "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🌐 Internet", "slug": "internet", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1717105526353}, {"name": "Video", "slug": "video", "groupId": "b4e79029-33d1-4a16-ac91-de1923ea8103", "createdTime": 1717105526362}, {"name": "🎨 Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "create... | ["internet", "video", "culture-default", "youtube", "entertainment"] | 0.25 | 1719799236869 | 1719814100130 | 0.2 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NhLe8jLoqMzANFUXNTlz | what-sentence-will-merchan-initiall | 4694.57716579186 | What sentence will Merchan initially give Trump for his convictions in the Stormy case? | 1720756740000 | uWsV13JR70gTlwH0aYxb5znhNcA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717105667021 | Dan Bron | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves when Judge Merchan hands down his initial sentence, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "currently slated for July 11th; ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}]}, {"text": "now slated for Sept 18th [1]. The sentence is what is ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 101.24034839466267, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DanBron | 1719950704776 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKy5viBlwPROilsN6y5dm8JzZBIVvDnUQVn6ewptXXP-s_0rrU=s96-c | 35 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "aveesmqmwe", "prob": 0.12162182008751693, "text": "Jail (or prison) time, any amount", "index": 0, "poolNo": 93.02613735269064, "userId": "uWsV13JR70gTlwH0aYxb5znhNcA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 671.8541882809059, "textFts": "'amount':6 'jail':1 'prison':3 'time':4", "contractId": "NhLe8jLoqMzANFUXNTlz", "... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714077351674 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717105667957}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717105667960}] | ["trial-of-the-century", "trump-indictments"] | 0.25 | 1719844116320 | 1717627765743 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg | what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f | 114339.83362551262 | What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include? | 1722466740000 | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 6.639273283801996 | False | basic | public | 1717105879583 | Dan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the sentencing of the initial trial, not any appeals. Resolves even if the sentence is stayed and never take effect. Each option resolves individually to 100% if the sentence includes that option. If sentencing never occurs, all resolve... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1481.3963314757582, "platformFee": 481.39633147575813, "liquidityFee": 0} | 276.8924409303444 | 14750 | DanMan314 | 1720217918906 | 0 | 356 | 3 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "mfxm4l3bg8", "prob": 0.13296468005213014, "text": "Prison time", "color": "#607d8b", "index": 0, "poolNo": 544.9098851396542, "userId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 3553.2452409134967, "textFts": "'prison':1 'time':2", "contractId": "HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg", "createdTime": 1717105... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1673046794414 | 0 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1717105879918}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717105879936}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI0... | ["us-politics", "trump-indictments", "donald-trump", "trial-of-the-century"] | 0.25 | 1720217915734 | 1719764580498 | False | prob-asc | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | i5jw0hITGB5MZHKqFEuR | {"NO": 438.9679568282373, "YES": 2278.070607306959} | 0.1615611801108006 | will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-7jumx54i3j | 14121.63730958164 | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July? | 1722484740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.335898125719625 | False | basic | public | 1717106285065 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "End of day Israel time zone", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be agreed upon by both sides", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.03412431091485535, "week": -0.01938598038236619, "month": -0.1692718959679291} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 285.78465092985095, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 808.7839057006656 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720210928379 | 0 | 70 | 7 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1717106285354}, {"name": "🇮🇱 Israel", "slug": "israel", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1717106285363}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1... | ["world-default", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "wars", "palestine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720210925107 | 1720052458982 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5092101354942865 | bGNKW02TUMbdx5tzcW90 | {"NO": 472.6964006864805, "YES": 48553.32138914568} | 0 | will-at-least-one-of-the-trump-juro | 53486.67637612902 | Will the name of at least one of the Manhattan trial Trump jurors be known within one month of the verdict? | 1719817140000 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.359756333748966 | True | basic | NO | public | 1717106433250 | Joshua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a reliable source (NYT, CNN, Fox, etc.) reports that the name of at least one of the 12 jurors in the Manhattan case has been revealed or leaked within one month of May 30th. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "par... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.10669366984483226, "month": -0.5935214178808043} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 430.70333229749673, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719856032134 | 5000 | JoshuaB | 1719817140000 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661311952917 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717106433717}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717106433727}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rz... | ["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "trump-indictments"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719780024086 | 1719856027958 | 0.01 | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ZMWblSOvtjDVrgwZcID5 | {"NO": 698.0017564059858, "YES": 1432.6611513830633} | 0.32759839853329503 | will-west-papua-be-independent-by-2 | 445 | Will West Papua be independent by 2030? | 1893538740000 | D1SxDsn7jrco9kYhE9C3Rldi7qw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590516066611908 | False | basic | public | 1717106506463 | P. Jain | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if the western half of New Guinea belonging to Indonesia becomes independent/ more than 50% of UN members recognise the country. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.14881144292318987} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 12.338848616936588, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | logaems | 1718117959813 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLogaems%2Flove-images%2Fmrjjwft5DS.37?alt=media&token=f563a08f-6e8a-40cb-b796-89cad49e1476 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1686156720394 | 0 | [{"name": "Collective Autonomy", "slug": "collective-autonomy", "groupId": "4jWpw4EVFoJGsAbsVeJX", "createdTime": 1717106507298}, {"name": "Indonesia", "slug": "indonesia", "groupId": "zBoKierwfmrNV6GjVk7h", "createdTime": 1717106507308}] | ["collective-autonomy", "indonesia"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718117956541 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE | {"NO": 510.0557005357697, "YES": 1960.5701866474242} | 0.20644797060606127 | will-trump-face-any-significant-rep | 5067.302549882649 | Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict? | 1764539940000 | nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.642099421457257 | False | basic | public | 1717106554501 | Gaz Downright | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definition of repercussions: Any form of incarcera... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.05125463870933819, "month": -0.10087176862047872} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 142.3641997076297, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GazDownright | 1720002160676 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697568039966 | 0 | [{"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717106554794}, {"name": "Trump indictment(s)", "slug": "trump-indictments", "groupId": "l8rzwticUu7jFUpOZnY2", "createdTime": 1717106554800}, {"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0... | ["donald-trump", "trump-indictments", "trial-of-the-century", "us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720002157460 | 1717663019990 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Gpg5w1XoD3ADrWSEogHu | who-will-giancarlo-esposito-play-in | 1515.1668397210722 | Who will Giancarlo Esposito play in the MCU? | 1893477540000 | ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717114420723 | Zane | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Giancarlo Esposito has ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.murphysmultiverse.com/giancarlo-esposito-set-to-appear-in-a-2025-marvel-studios-film/", "class": "break-anywh... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 64.98679735563462, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 2500 | ZaneMiller | 1719039632984 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5xhlvakfye", "prob": 0.051740816551604674, "text": "Professor X", "index": 0, "poolNo": 85.51467026483044, "userId": "ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1567.2360198898327, "textFts": "'professor':1 'x':2", "contractId": "Gpg5w1XoD3ADrWSEogHu", "createdTime": 1717114420723, "probChange... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669859805273 | 0 | [{"name": "📺 Television & Film", "slug": "television-film", "groupId": "EUSEngFk1dGGBfaMeAmh", "createdTime": 1717114421089}, {"name": "Marvel Cinematic Universe", "slug": "marvel-cinematic-universe", "groupId": "hIQdGqOuPcrwWMsQGhYd", "createdTime": 1717114421091}] | ["television-film", "marvel-cinematic-universe"] | 0.25 | 1719039629744 | 1718081262413 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | dMj0MKmumcVGbTtpSD9X | {"NO": 1938.0713784317854, "YES": 515.9768681012994} | 0.789744611243794 | elon-musk-and-a-current-or-former-u | 1615 | Elon Musk and a current or former US president appear in a photo together before mid 2025 | 1751324340000 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63961447031432 | False | basic | public | 1717119185803 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Photo must be real and taken in person where they both are physically in the same location, after creation of this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.16215990879384545} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 38.25276401446177, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ernie | 1718045828318 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668384110640 | 0 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1717119186057}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717119186090}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "the-life-of-biden"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718045824481 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000003 | 0akh4e7OyX0HrAkGfFSY | {"NO": 1580.0134220765528, "YES": 632.9060158778518} | 1 | will-gorosei-vs-giant-robot-happen | 1536 | Will Gorosei vs. Giant Robot happen in chapter 1117? | 1718044140000 | d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.603118755392902 | True | basic | YES | public | 1717122933089 | lazy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As long as one party attacks the other, it will be considered 'YES'. Otherwise, it's a 'NO'.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.2589293019693272} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.742990117084105, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1718256058282 | 1000 | lazy | 1718289927055 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708784795714 | 0 | [{"name": "🏴☠️ One Piece", "slug": "one-piece-stocks", "groupId": "uJSql24HUqpEpVU0FrjI", "createdTime": 1717122933507}] | ["one-piece-stocks"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718030524772 | 1718289925703 | 0.71 | d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000008 | K9nTjDpkO2WRSR2GBW27 | {"NO": 1350.4593756793518, "YES": 740.4887684954982} | 0.6458598121821355 | did-the-explosive-may-26-2024-rafah | 2187.2432223855008 | Did the explosive May 26 2024 Rafah strike by Israel hit a Palestinian weapons cache? | 1735707540000 | oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586214559388686 | False | basic | public | 1717173163959 | mongo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 26th, 2024 Israel struck Rafah in an attack to target two senior Hamas members. It sparked a fire a fire and reportedly killed 45 other people. Times of Israel reports that the strike may have hit a hidden store of weapons and that is the re... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.03615692052703612, "month": 0.12787037104654475} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 68.2468471489725, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | mongo | 1719885495540 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7I_X--wyVrh_ZPix4FSV8YMpbXtxCdMU-qkPeUUA=s96-c | 30 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1675469090876 | 0 | [{"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1717173164117}, {"name": "🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict", "slug": "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "groupId": "cea99c1c-afb9-49b2-adfa-9be739adce10", "createdTime": 1717173164121}, {"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId"... | ["wars", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "world-default", "israel", "palestine"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719885491428 | 1718515741012 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | OcPZIDjHL6NDOxPMjI7c | {"NO": 814.1118094714373, "YES": 1228.332507115026} | 0.3985968199280274 | will-george-russell-outlast-his-nex | 550 | Will George Russell outlast his next teammate (after Lewis Hamilton) at Mercedes? | 1923973140000 | BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576911673765599 | False | basic | public | 1717174115358 | pitstop | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Russell holds his Mercedes F1 seat for longer than whoever replaces Lewis Hamilton.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Russell loses his Mercedes F1 seat for any re... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.016521088446764476} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.56285642951034, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | pitstop | 1717836839015 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1661266134199 | 0 | [{"name": "Mercedes F1", "slug": "mercedes-f1", "groupId": "cbed80ab-1b17-4ae9-b068-b0705aa5a5e6", "createdTime": 1717174115625}, {"name": "Auto Racing", "slug": "auto-racing", "groupId": "MIDhbxvpwoHQ3QaG7xfU", "createdTime": 1717174115623}, {"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpw... | ["mercedes-f1", "auto-racing", "formula-1"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1717836835894 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g | with-the-third-human-case-of-h5n1-b | 5262.362730567521 | With the third human case of H5N1 Bird Flu reported in US, how many human cases will be confirmed in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1717175763080 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On May 31st the third human case was confirmed, and the second in Michigan. All cases so far have involved farm workers with proximity to infected cattle.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 127.87563155420608, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Moscow25 | 1720052326263 | 0 | 31 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "663l76t1c9", "prob": 0.5170674224122503, "text": "Less than 10 cases", "index": 0, "poolNo": 258.6844631008789, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 241.6070886160141, "textFts": "'10':3 'case':4 'less':1", "contractId": "RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g", "createdTime": 1717175763081, "p... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1717175763314}, {"name": "Pandemic", "slug": "pandemic", "groupId": "5OlW5cUQPgx5A9W1OPnp", "createdTime": 1717175763320}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdT... | ["h5n1-bird-flu", "pandemic", "public-health"] | 0.25 | 1720052323170 | 1720034340706 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49860294347381307 | zutDEtzXJq9pvcrSsRgd | {"NO": 1922.4689515952584, "YES": 2081.102539121455} | 0.4787937819541193 | will-someone-die-from-or-with-h5n1 | 8874.261728342284 | Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024? | 1735707540000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.134134582156703 | False | basic | public | 1717176004752 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Third human case was confirmed on May 31st.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "ht... | BINARY | {"day": -0.05263368319858136, "week": -0.10133184040455084, "month": -0.1037013076444801} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 237.99366732354852, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 189 | 2000 | Moscow25 | 1720244168589 | 0 | 68 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1715368331856 | 0 | [{"name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1-bird-flu", "groupId": "bjAQEGbYlIgTjDhStoFr", "createdTime": 1717176005063}, {"name": "Public Health", "slug": "public-health", "groupId": "ybln6XDvz5ik7zO0aYe1", "createdTime": 1717176005059}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS", "c... | ["h5n1-bird-flu", "public-health", "covid-d7a9361d772d"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720244165500 | 1720199916611 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4795690597815845 | y4hNixQSf3WLAeK1dcH9 | {"NO": 1285.5212126010065, "YES": 2673.802522642374} | 0.3070160809260658 | will-x-meta-snapchat-instagram-yout | 1074 | Will X, Meta, Snapchat, instagram, YouTube, twitch or TikTok ANNOUNCE a name change before the end of Q2 2025? | 1751428740000 | 7Zfy9bUDSscO94DPcNJNm8KrT3F2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.484973567567797 | False | basic | public | 1717176032319 | Rillaboom27 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any of the above social media companies ANNOUNCE a complete company rebrand, not just a feature before Jul 1, 2025", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.08550867102214066} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 29.684309945035864, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1831 | Rillaboom27 | 1718280422891 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJhCwCShHnyGWuaQpQROwcdenijvJlNL0xMMLa79w2sAiRFxNuW=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1713055801596 | 0 | [{"name": "Social Media", "slug": "social-media", "groupId": "YzNv56EFKyx9DHwGYtIU", "createdTime": 1717176032500}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1717176032510}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 17171... | ["social-media", "twitter", "tiktok", "snapchat", "instagram"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718007820568 | 1718280421553 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL | predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-shi | 12230.862090040011 | Predominant color of Joe Biden's shirt at the debate on June 27 | 1719566477765 | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | 4i1ljhh5mh | public | 1717178660688 | Base | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolves to N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same Market for Trump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.27172012128081, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719566480727 | 1000 | Base | 1719566477765 | 0 | 30 | 6 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4i1ljhh5mh", "prob": 0.9943891938544012, "text": "White", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4706.743944846972, "userId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 26.557637607809824, "textFts": "'white':1", "contractId": "juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL", "resolverId": "dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22", "createdTime"... | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690298751650 | 0 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1717178660932}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1717178660934}, {"name": "🎙️ Debate", "slug": "debate", "groupId": "gOk2vU8cIw0cnCKM4GAh", "c... | ["politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "debate", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 1719566475420 | 1719536623328 | {"4i1ljhh5mh": 100} | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | mlUOpWwlwfxLlldEzbn2 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.5 | sidder-nicolai-dyhr-i-fngsel-inden | 0 | Sidder Nicolai Dyhr i fængsel inden udgangen af 2024? | 1735685940000 | fuZkJXlrvPVTNZmTFRSfUpo0zcJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570333339714711 | False | basic | public | 1717179693013 | Glorious Spearfish | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ja hvis Nicolai Dyhr sidder eller har siddet i fængsel inden 2025.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | gloriousspearfish | 1717179979862 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1717177002946 | 0 | [{"name": "DK", "slug": "dk", "groupId": "88f66fc7-b2b7-4a30-9e72-270263fceeaf", "createdTime": 1717179693149}] | ["dk"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ivJ839PyYNFV8p14RTVA | {"NO": 992.161755063628, "YES": 1049.526293663298} | 0.1333684859411233 | will-value-claims-in-particular-are | 50 | Will "Value Claims (In Particular) Are Usually Bullshit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 1769904000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.899812762135237 | False | basic | public | 1717180343968 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4737063367020526, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1717187890634 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | [{"name": "LessWrong Annual Review", "slug": "lesswrong-annual-review", "groupId": "0a0b0d16-7a4b-4de5-aadf-ddd85fbefe5c", "createdTime": 1717180344180}] | ["lesswrong-annual-review"] | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1717187887511 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | QAlWiKWrorzm0JV5lldO | {"NO": 822.783795968272, "YES": 1215.3861134603117} | 0.40368753957266834 | will-there-be-a-public-photo-of-tru | 1471.968532377892 | Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024? | 1735707540000 | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.576250166952434 | False | basic | public | 1717180419621 | For Truth | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any photo of Trump performing Community Service emerges at any point in 2024. Such a photo might originate from his own political campaign, or from a spectator or journalist. I will do my best to verify that the photo is... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.06497647345782376} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.62117828256939, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ForTruth | 1718786517398 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1714184615024 | 0 | [{"name": "Trial of the Century", "slug": "trial-of-the-century", "groupId": "usp0cQDi8y1YG1CCmpfn", "createdTime": 1717180419768}, {"name": "👴 Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1717180419766}, {"name": "2024", "slug": "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "groupId": "113eb49d-bb7b-428e-... | ["trial-of-the-century", "donald-trump", "2024-3d9da60b52f8", "trump-indictments", "us-politics"] | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1718786514294 | 1717180929878 | 0 |
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