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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5000000000000001 | 4rknzdc1ke | {"NO": 108.34726777719229, "YES": 92.29582069908973} | 0.5400000000000001 | will-ethan-my-close-friend-visit-a | 40.822653393307185 | Will Ethan (my close friend) visit a nightclub while in Portugal for a week? | 1720411140000 | UxXLXew3vCfNrWEi1Z6Oa5Ddexq2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719791170859 | Leaf | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ethan is a nerd. He is by no means bad looking but at age 21 he has not even held hands with a woman or tried alcohol before. During our week in Lisbon my friends and I will try to convince him to join us at a club or bar, but we anticipate that it will be difficult. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not participate in this market. If we can get him into any type of nightlife venue that will lead to a resolution of YES; he does not need to consume alcohol there. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.08605356522947588, "week": 0.04000000000000015, "month": 0.04000000000000015} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.3658007235281482, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 30.822653393307185 | 100 | Leaf | 1720201660809 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJruXgo0amIj_2ytjzzXSnb04WEblZTcIXAz--CEHynepkckG7L=s96-c | 3 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719614122705 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720201657727 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
dq73pootr1 | on-how-many-days-will-i-smoke-weed-metvmyergx | 3847.044714215565 | On how many days will i Smoke Weed in July 2024? | 1722463140000 | rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719791589205 | Drugsornot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "01.07 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "02.07 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "03.07 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "04.07 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Live Stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weed: 3/4", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Check out my old markets to get Infos if this is realistic or not", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June Market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "On how many days will i Smoke Weed in June 2024? | Manifold", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Drugsornot/on-how-many-days-will-i-smoke-weed-skuiakndc9", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.17682680195366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Drugsornot | 1720131327462 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJC2QE9apST7N13cfgLTRsUfeRGnBlFrdXSqW2C5-_Y=s96-c | 6 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "bket0jdozh", "prob": 0.02158391271234817, "text": "0-10 days", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.068828041978453, "userId": "rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1272.382504209762, "textFts": "'-10':2 '0':1 'day':3", "contractId": "dq73pootr1", "createdTime": 1719791589206, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.10341608728765184, "month": -0.10341608728765184}, 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"probChangeMonth": 0.1544391741020893}, {"id": "741h5ylplr", "prob": 0.13034111003264578, "text": "30 days", "index": 6, "poolNo": 73.16227837625577, "userId": "rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 488.15163369593114, "textFts": "'30':1 'day':2", "contractId": "dq73pootr1", "createdTime": 1719791589206, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.005341110032645785, "month": 0.005341110032645785}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": 0.005341110032645785, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": 0.005341110032645785}, {"id": "hrn5axsrsd", "prob": 0.01015680262660493, "text": "31 days", "index": 7, "poolNo": 19.14327726063614, "userId": "rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1865.630697818082, "textFts": "'31':1 'day':2", "contractId": "dq73pootr1", "createdTime": 1719791589206, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.11484319737339507, "month": -0.11484319737339507}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.11484319737339507, "totalLiquidity": 188.98223650461364, "probChangeMonth": -0.11484319737339507}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701650122616 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719922324416 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | j6zt6ti9j3 | {"NO": 1924.2554398757152, "YES": 519.6815242287116} | 0.7873588673269457 | will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e4-a-dan | 1150.73301658149 | Will "House of the Dragon" S2E4 ("A Dance of Dragons") be rated >8.5 on IMDB, 2 days after release? | 1720404900000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.60219938130837 | False | basic | public | 1719791744628 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E4 (\"A Dance of Dragons\") IMDB link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27179976/?ref_=tt_ep_nx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (July 9th), at noon PT.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes when the episode premieres.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 8.0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: 9.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E8: 9.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E9: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E10: 9.2", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: ???", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.2873588673269457, "month": 0.2873588673269457} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 26.810364402331608, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720085292124 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720085289011 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
va7r8awm9c | if-neither-biden-nor-kamala-is-the | 4454.012040022436 | If neither Biden nor Kamala is the Democratic nominee for president, who will be the Democratic VP candidate? | 1722571140000 | Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719792418012 | Alexander Miller | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 44.8353979615502, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 40 | 1000 | AlexanderMiller | 1720211259443 | 0 | 18 | 1 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4ok0kkljh2", "prob": 0.8155211590180649, "text": "Biden or Kamala is the nominee (for president)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 743.3602642768328, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 168.15534271475278, "textFts": "'biden':1 'kamala':3 'nomine':6 'presid':8", "contractId": "va7r8awm9c", "createdTime": 1719792418012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.5066666666666648, "month": 0.5066666666666648}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.5066666666666648, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0.5066666666666648}, {"id": "hh66dpdq31", "prob": 0.03798698283662243, "text": "Kamala Harris", "index": 1, "poolNo": 70.25575940263005, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1779.2135628857932, "textFts": "'harri':2 'kamala':1", "contractId": "va7r8awm9c", "createdTime": 1719792418012, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.3140820150667257, "month": -0.3140820150667257}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.3140820150667257, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.3140820150667257}, {"id": "gxzovcueoo", "prob": 0.14649185814531282, "text": "Other", "index": 2, "poolNo": 146.47311451077576, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 853.3989354804362, "textFts": "", "contractId": "va7r8awm9c", "createdTime": 1719792418012, "probChanges": {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.19258465159993918, "month": -0.19258465159993918}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -5.551115123125783e-17, "probChangeWeek": -0.19258465159993918, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": -0.19258465159993918}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698758419090 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720211256179 | 1719820758293 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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cjitlabr28 | in-their-rookie-wnba-seasons-who-wi | 7 | In their rookie (W)NBA Seasons, who will record the most points between Cailin Clark and Bronny James? | 1744606740000 | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719802518532 | Stuart Slagle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caitlin Clark plays for the WNBA's Indiana Fever which has 40 regular season games in 2024. 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0.5259116270786944 | cd9xhpsbs0 | {"NO": 23692.369188859186, "YES": 17087.988996595865} | 0.60599703208943 | will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm | 35762.81622884593 | Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year? | 1751439540000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4931675560718878 | False | plus | public | 1719802886715 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm thinking of something like ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://mentat.ai/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://mentat.ai/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", but that actually works.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will provide a paragraph or so describing the change I want made. Then it should create a GitHub PR, which I will review and leave only a few comments before merging. The whole process should take less than 30 minutes. This should work fairly reliably.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I tried this yesterday and it failed haha:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/2694", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/2694", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See more discussion in my post:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://jamesgrugett.com/p/software-automation-will-make-us", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://jamesgrugett.com/p/software-automation-will-make-us", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.06988281764126636, "week": 0.10599703208943001, "month": 0.10599703208943001} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1007.6654760282348, "platformFee": 7.66547602823487, "liquidityFee": 0} | 12050 | 20000 | JamesGrugett | 1720242760093 | 0 | 119 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1639087027342 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720242757045 | 1719944291061 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | m3wphi3mit | {"NO": 69.56346769345197, "YES": 143.75361567751884} | 0.3261035946777739 | will-electionbettingoddscom-be-usin | 45 | Will electionbettingodds.com be using Manifold as one of their sources by EOY? | 1735642740000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719804859787 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently their sources are these: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdE6h9OOSuQ.png?alt=media&token=67ab8c58-b5b8-4833-a06c-4fbf5130a60e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://electionbettingodds.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.1738964053222261, "month": -0.1738964053222261} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.2463843224811624, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | jim | 1719837168101 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719837165032 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | rk2eveooes | {"NO": 531.0850045437941, "YES": 1882.9377433825443} | 0.21999999999999992 | stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boein | 3551.870510745924 | Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21? | 1721563140000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63454256494493 | False | basic | public | 1719805211230 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clone of (and resolves identically to) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which arrived at the ISS on June 6, 2024, with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, must depart within 45 days due to the Harmony module's limited fuel.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Boeing Starliner spacecraft departs the International Space Station (ISS) with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore by 11:59 PM ET on July 21, 2024. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Starliner will be considered to have departed if it has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The resolution source will be official announcements from NASA and/or Boeing, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.2800000000000001, "month": -0.2800000000000001} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 75.82797627769696, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jim | 1720146363772 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720146360726 | 1719819115305 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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bfpnmn9cur | will-donald-trump-lead-joe-biden-by | 70 | Will Donald Trump lead Joe Biden by at least this much in the 538 polling average at any point in July 2024? | 1722484740000 | vcWSUFg2E9QnftwOgvdGQ7FPziA2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719808245201 | Guy Cohen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump’s polling lead over Joe Biden reaches each listed amount at any point in July 2024, the corresponding amount will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4800144087073832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | GuyCohen | 1719955974426 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtegVMmYNHa0cwfrPTcGDfRtlb9N_ChRppJ7zUVeTjBg=s96-c | 3 | 1 | DISABLED | [{"id": "x1jx5tz22t", "prob": 0.8214809626934025, "text": "2 points", "index": 0, 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l0z40jqt2j | how-many-points-will-bronny-james-s-d2tm9f6as2 | 896.4465370505758 | How many points will Bronny James score in NBA debut? 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"createdTime": 1719808671018, "probChanges": {"day": -0.028064313246542738, "week": -0.055569918918291245, "month": -0.055569918918291245}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.028064313246542738, "probChangeWeek": -0.055569918918291245, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152, "probChangeMonth": -0.055569918918291245}, {"id": "lwix0t1ghr", "prob": 0.05614637586568963, "text": "30-40 points", "index": 5, "poolNo": 49.78550532767977, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 836.9236466000245, "textFts": "'-40':2 '30':1 'point':3", "contractId": "l0z40jqt2j", "createdTime": 1719808671018, "probChanges": {"day": -0.028064313246542738, "week": -0.055569918918291245, "month": -0.055569918918291245}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.028064313246542738, "probChangeWeek": -0.055569918918291245, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152, "probChangeMonth": -0.055569918918291245}, {"id": "xpeqvqh63u", "prob": 0.056197254758221515, "text": "Over 40 points", "index": 6, "poolNo": 49.80940012770117, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 836.5221536465369, "textFts": "'40':2 'point':3", "contractId": "l0z40jqt2j", "createdTime": 1719808671018, "probChanges": {"day": -0.028064313246542738, "week": -0.055569918918291245, "month": -0.055569918918291245}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.028064313246542738, "probChangeWeek": -0.055569918918291245, "totalLiquidity": 204.12414523193152, "probChangeMonth": -0.055569918918291245}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719949767357 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 7kbdk5mlml | {"NO": 484.322104837852, "YES": 2064.7416048350574} | 0.18999999999999995 | will-anyone-except-biden-harris-or | 6835.600339241181 | Will anyone except Biden, Harris, or Trump be a major party nominee? | 1724396340000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.460719305307073 | False | basic | public | 1719809015702 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone except Donald Trump is officially selected as the Republican Party presidential nominee by the end of the Republican National Convention, currently scheduled to occur July 15th - July 18th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone except Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is officially selected as the Democratic Party presidential nominee by the end of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled to occur August 19th - August 22nd", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market resolves NO at the end of the second convention.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any replacement of a nominee after a convention and before election day would not change the resolution of the market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.030719684676961595, "week": -0.31000000000000005, "month": -0.31000000000000005} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 139.438704926045, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 602.3808110938235 | 1000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720235253228 | 0 | 46 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720235250114 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 22mn424iti | {"NO": 717.7405625652733, "YES": 1393.2610920384714} | 0.34000000000000014 | will-i-lose-another-character-in-my | 838.4497057557543 | Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character? | 1735711140000 | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.587492009694252 | False | basic | public | 1719809503340 | Matt P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've been playing in a PbP RPG campaign for just over a year now. In that time we've played B/X, SWN, and now (for a while) 4e D&D. In that time, I have lost a character in the B/X game (unlucky ambush roll + lvl 1 character = instant death), and then just recently I lost my character in the 4e campaign as he held off an encounter we shouldn't have attempted to fight in the first place while the rest of the party got away. No one else has lost any characters in the time I've been playing in this server.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I complete the hat trick before anyone else loses a character? (and to clarify, by \"lose\" I mean the character dies or is in some other way permanently taken out of action - not that we switch systems or I get bored with a character or anything like that)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some details:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "* I am playing a Defender class with the new character (swordmage), so it is generally my character's job to take the hits for the party ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* That said, my new character is dispositionally a bit less heroic and self-sacrificing than the last one (wandering scholar vs noble paladin), so she's less likely to do that sort of doomed retreat thing than the last one", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* I am not playing to lose my character intentionally ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "* I am playing to the best of my ability", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will extend the market close date until another player character in this server dies. Market resolves YES if my character is the next to die, and NO if my character is not the next to die. PCs only, NPCs don't count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creator betting policy: I'll bet on the market just after creation to set my initial a priori probability as of today, and then I will not bet any further on the market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.15999999999999986, "month": -0.15999999999999986} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 24.824388701925354, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MattP | 1719839426166 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644871619181 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719827940711 | 1719839356238 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | sw3gqfsspl | {"NO": 747.0887806958779, "YES": 1338.529001959506} | 0.358209824882052 | will-either-biden-or-harris-win-the | 6302.716219634461 | Will either Biden or Harris win the 2024 Presidential Election? | 1731311940000 | vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.405278721344596 | False | basic | public | 1719809677923 | Manifold Politics | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is declared the winner of the 2024 US presidential election by the Associated Press, or NO if the election is called by the AP for anyone else. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This requires that either Biden or Harris be the presidential nominee on the winning ticket. For example, a ticket with Newsom for President and Harris for Vice President would not qualify for a YES resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.026352358389706065, "week": -0.141790175117948, "month": -0.141790175117948} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 174.46642628450533, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 60 | 1000 | ManifoldPolitics | 1720226716793 | 0 | 53 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1701801625125 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720226713677 | 1719834397653 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | kq2zxjbgnw | {"NO": 598.8669767736781, "YES": 1669.819907899038} | 0.26397074925571823 | will-i-encounter-issue-number-1-whe-cgdjamfj9i | 2762.3847047473478 | Will I encounter Issue Number 1 when I resolve this market? | 1720400520000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.611618350482441 | False | public | 1719810131513 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.23602925074428177, "month": -0.23602925074428177} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 66.4312420247004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1719878580437 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719878575783 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | wbf3hxvnlq | {"NO": 72.01104026938951, "YES": 138.86759533802768} | 0.34148096634809916 | will-fernando-alonso-receive-an-aut | 40 | Will Fernando Alonso receive an automatic race ban before March 24th 2025? | 1742885940000 | Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719811208519 | Enlil | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fernando Alonso as of June 30th 2024 has 8 penalty points. His first points will expire in March 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Fernando Alonso receive an automatic race ban due to reaching 12 penalty points before his first points expire in March 24th 2025?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.05165676765762922, "week": -0.15851903365190084, "month": -0.15851903365190084} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.1324046619723147, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 15 | 100 | Enlil | 1720188782550 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1698989439494 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720188779487 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | wv6a74x1fr | {"NO": 1781.7736045541196, "YES": 561.2385307785753} | 0.7604628152304116 | will-keenen-hardcore-upload-at-leas | 801 | Will Keenen Hardcore upload at least 2 videos in July? | 1722488340000 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.622890879948423 | False | basic | public | 1719812664127 | Keenen W | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenHardcore", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenHardcore", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I upload two videos on this youtube channel during July this market resolve Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will only bet 1 mana in the direction I expect this to resolve. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.2604628152304116, "month": 0.2604628152304116} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.226395445880378, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | KeenenW | 1719829209432 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697247005528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719829206286 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | 634b1dm9sv | {"NO": 1506.9160452121785, "YES": 663.6069761001165} | 0.6942640231943266 | will-a-moderator-fix-a-resolution-b | 742.7585504340999 | Will a moderator fix a resolution before the end of 2024 ? | 1738364340000 | EvssjTog4GaSFVLrKBLh11LksCt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59663296625829 | False | basic | public | 1719813326579 | Mr Kiwi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A lot of questions with resolutions in our lifespan, or even at the end of the month are badly defined, nor have haphazardly resolution conditions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This gives a lot of leeway to moderators, especially when the question was created by Partners/Moderators, and that the resolution can be quite plainly marked as unsolvable (due to inexisting resolution conditions on the author part).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "While it's up to the Manifold user to do their due diligence to not bet low quality, highly \"up-to-moderators\" questions, I think this raises some interesting questions for the platform", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "👉 at the end of 31/01/2025 no proof was given", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "👉 before 31/01/2025 a proof was given", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A proof can be:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "👉 link to a question with a blatant proof of manipulation", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "👉 statistics about collusion between \"Partners\", \"Holders\" and \"Moderation\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "👉 un-doctored and privacy compliants screenshots of actual proof of manipulation", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "👉 blatant fraud", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.19426402319432656, "month": 0.19426402319432656} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 19.7052888146956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MrKiwi | 1719837136415 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTcvRWvh43rWCf2bkDlJhzsONGlYvANB1YgMfrKVlPag=s96-c | 6 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1708309854004 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719837133344 | 1719830000311 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5762998793904207 | zfi78oaapm | {"NO": 7755.156523914489, "YES": 11926.647958972228} | 0.4693347768185364 | will-the-sohu-ai-chip-ship-to-custo | 2915 | Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year? | 1750834740000 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8278961697332603 | False | plus | public | 1719813935549 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Within a year of announcement. June 25, 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sohu chip is an AI ASIC developed by Etched that is claiming 20x faster transformer inference than an Nvidia H100.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.etched.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.etched.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Their announcement only had renders so I don't think they have any chips made yet and I think the performance numbers are theoretical. But they just raised $120M in funding.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.030665223181463586, "month": -0.030665223181463586} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 102.55620873103103, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 10000 | ahalekelly | 1720125277574 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 16 | 8 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1651185961528 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719935679866 | 1719864848338 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
aekihmdiwj | what-will-be-the-next-presidential | 72 | What will be the next presidential “barrier” to be broken? | 2556172740000 | 4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719815827837 | xander | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The individual must become president of the United States, by election or other means", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asian = 25% or more ancestry which originates from the Asian continent", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jewish = 50% or more ancestry from a Jewish ethnic group (such as Ashkenazi) or practicing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Latin = this one is trickier but having a parent who was a non-US citizen born in a Latin American country or Spain/Portugal counts, as does having 50% or more of their ancestry traceable in a similar way", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Slavic/Balkan/Italian = 50% or more of their ancestry…", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they belong to multiple categories, all will resolve to true", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.091856126381274, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 110 | xander | 1719956511311 | 0 | 7 | 7 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "z9awdu6gg6", "prob": 0.7207951486579803, "text": "First woman president", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.16839287392809, "userId": "4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.559497288368389, "textFts": "'first':1 'presid':3 'woman':2", "contractId": "aekihmdiwj", "createdTime": 1719815827838, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.22079514865798033, "month": 0.22079514865798033}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.22079514865798033, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0.22079514865798033}, {"id": "ncu5w5obqf", "prob": 0.3882782659751925, "text": "First Jewish president", "index": 1, "poolNo": 19.91748936371653, "userId": "4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 31.37945694795027, "textFts": "'first':1 'jewish':2 'presid':3", "contractId": "aekihmdiwj", "createdTime": 1719815827838, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.1117217340248075, "month": -0.1117217340248075}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.1117217340248075, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.1117217340248075}, {"id": "pogjhp6kui", "prob": 0.41233779882259525, "text": "First Asian president", "index": 2, "poolNo": 20.941254943511034, "userId": "4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.845393778259012, "textFts": "'asian':2 'first':1 'presid':3", "contractId": "aekihmdiwj", "createdTime": 1719815827838, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.08766220117740475, "month": -0.08766220117740475}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": -0.08766220117740475, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": -0.08766220117740475}, {"id": "4opunq2d52", "prob": 0.6385839048177198, "text": "First Latin president", "index": 3, "poolNo": 33.23114061105923, "userId": "4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 18.80766017980141, "textFts": "'first':1 'latin':2 'presid':3", "contractId": "aekihmdiwj", "createdTime": 1719815827838, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0.13858390481771976, "month": 0.13858390481771976}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0.13858390481771976, "totalLiquidity": 25, "probChangeMonth": 0.13858390481771976}, {"id": "hs9fo7ghso", "prob": 0.5, "text": "First Slavic/Balkan/Italian president", "index": 4, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'first':1 'presid':3 'slavic/balkan/italian':2", "contractId": "aekihmdiwj", "createdTime": 1719956433665, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 10, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1679133223529 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719848647577 | False | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000014 | iqwtkwf4x0 | {"NO": 1020.2040612204046, "YES": 980.1960588196101} | 0 | daily-coinflip-3krvtln18k | 17628.3786918064 | Daily coinflip | 1719979140000 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.570395453738037 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719817075523 | Traveel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 171)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current totals: 87 heads vs 83 tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@FairlyRandom", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "/FairlyRandom", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " will be used to generate the outcome", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " fail to produce an outcome 24 hours after the close date and a final request (here > testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1", "label": "FairlyRandom"}}, {"text": " respond to multiple queries >1 hour after their requests, they will be discarded and the outcome rerolled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Submit a comment or DM to be featured in-", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest win streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longest loss streak: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest win: @", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biggest loss: @", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 289.8785087012459, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719992262981 | 1000 | Traveel | 1719979140000 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c | 91 | 34 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1674441975928 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | False | 1719968272367 | 1719992253910 | 0.51 | gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | diuaoui5dq | {"NO": 147.91522201611963, "YES": 67.60629408993628} | 0.6863130173199601 | will-i-tenshino-practice-meditation | 160 | Will I (TenShino) practice meditation every day in July? | 1722549540000 | zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719818406166 | Punished Ten Shino | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm inconsistent when it comes to meditation. Sometimes I'll meditate for a week straight, often I meditate every other day, and once in a while I don't meditate for weeks. My streak record is 16 days.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I'll buy Ṁ20 YES daily in July to keep me motivated. This market will resolve after July is over even if I miss a day (which makes this market resolve NO) since I'll keep buying YES as a punishment.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.06391147504093941, "week": 0.18631301731996008, "month": 0.18631301731996008} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.005636637089774, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 20 | 100 | TenShino | 1720169607564 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668962116383 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720169604504 | 1719818677677 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3p170v2lld | what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-zvdamsxue7 | 4239.151216262229 | What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before Veterans Day (EOD November 11th)? [ADD YOUR OWN] | 1731441599000 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719818558732 | Lion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whatever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Musk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " or reposts, including reposts ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(the content directly visible in the repost and pictures (videos, podcasts, etc. are excluded) without opening a thread) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "after market creation/adding the submission", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", counts. Whatever is visible under \"Posts\" on his page, even if deleted later, also counts. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Replies, etc., do not count.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please don't submit any obvious answers like \"SpaceX\" or topics he regulary posts about. [I'll N/A obvious spam and rename.]", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Literally submissions will only be based on what Musk directly types on X in his own posts and in the text above reposts.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " This does not include what other people write or what he uses in replies. Furthermore, it does not include what he says in a video or what is visible in a picture or meme, even if these contain words.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll be fairly relaxed, but it should be clear and obvious. I.e. if he tweets \"the president does[...],\" Joe Biden would resolve to yes. However, \"Obamacare\" won't resolve \"Obama.\" \"Transgender\" isn't enough to resolve \"LGBT,\" but \"LGBTQIA+\" and \"transgender, [...] homosexuals and bisexuals\" would resolve \"LGBT.\" If the submission requires an international context, the submission won't resolve if Musk only mentions a single country. If you need more examples, please feel free to ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll use my own judgment and might seek input from mods in unclear cases or decide to N/A or resolve to 50%/50%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I won't bet in this market except to push certain answers in the ranking.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question closes at the end of Veterans Day [2024-11-11] at 23:59:59 PT. Any submissions without proof by November 13th at 0:00 PST will be resolved as NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQaLpGcKqAd.png?alt=media&token=aad05cf6-1731-4970-82ae-e557daee75b9", "title": null}}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 95.4671524822376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 75 | 4200 | Lion | 1720247942341 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 18 | 4 | ANYONE | [{"id": "jv2f45vgqw", "prob": 0.2036320896562912, "text": "Taylor Swift", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.56688870921208, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 197.75786597244678, "textFts": "'swift':2 'taylor':1", "contractId": "3p170v2lld", "createdTime": 1719818558732, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.2963679103437088, "month": -0.2963679103437088}, "subsidyPool": 0, 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0.5 | n8qw692h1g | {"NO": 694.658502199301, "YES": 1439.5562666173128} | 0.32548669063164504 | set-and-get-my-burpee-goal-at-least-r7mc1kdbyc | 550 | Set and get my burpee goal at least 3 weeks this month? | 1722398400000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.591061887021645 | False | public | 1719820847499 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.17451330936835496, "month": -0.17451330936835496} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 15.977900997284928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1719878642444 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719878637463 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 55n2qqch1c | {"NO": 74.4379811580356, "YES": 134.34002164526058} | 0.3565413030038832 | by-2035-will-assistant-be-primarily | 333.61976265994406 | By 2035, will "assistant" be primarily used to refer to AI assistants? | 2082837540000 | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719822812115 | Shaked Koplewitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it go the way of \"computer\" and \"calculator\"?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.1434586969961168, "month": -0.1434586969961168} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.358383174680336, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | ShakedKoplewitz | 1719958867405 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | 12 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1655740589463 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719958863940 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ddklry9076 | {"NO": 929.142970627184, "YES": 1570.5955500805558} | 0.08784488252833142 | will-sam-altmans-sister-annie-altma | 575 | Will "Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman, claims Sam..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.953880837970088 | False | public | 1719822879930 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman, claims Sam has severely abused her", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QDczBduZorG4dxZiW/sam-altman-s-sister-annie-altman-claims-sam-has-severely", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.052155117471668594, "month": -0.052155117471668594} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.404449919444278, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719854095885 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1719854092677 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.500000000000002 | o28q5wwg69 | {"NO": 4199.573983052361, "YES": 238.11939116575923} | 1 | will-bitcoin-go-below-58k-in-july-2 | 14353.178179549259 | Will Bitcoin go below $58K in July 2024? | 1720085424520 | byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.90562036474847 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719822880604 | PREDYX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blockchain.info", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blockchain.info", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "will be considered as oracle.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 183.31696758018361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1720085424520 | 1000 | predyx_markets | 1720085424520 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704769503781 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720085212963 | 1720085388942 | 0.95 | byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | zb5ojla7qg | {"NO": 480.8260943390953, "YES": 2079.7540145455664} | 0.187780141176108 | will-bitcoin-hit-72k-in-july-2024 | 3075.6680833397286 | Will Bitcoin hit $72K in July 2024? | 1722495540000 | byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.655530152724234 | False | basic | public | 1719823006425 | PREDYX | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blockchain.info", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blockchain.info", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "will be considered as oracle.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.004891263328097473, "week": -0.312219858823892, "month": -0.312219858823892} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 84.5925658191784, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 165.04777563054643 | 1000 | predyx_markets | 1720243596952 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1704769503781 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720243593886 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 3oser24atr | {"NO": 1245.179262462185, "YES": 803.0972167193252} | 0.6079156183835875 | will-alireza-firouzja-reach-top-5-i | 652 | Will Alireza Firouzja reach top 5 in the world again before 2026? | 1767221940000 | FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577813908213344 | False | basic | public | 1719824052109 | Weezing | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alireza reached 2800 rating in 2021 as the youngest player ever and he was ranked #2. But since then he had been struggling and dropped as low as 2737 after Candidates. Recently he gained some points back and is currently at 2745 in live ratings (rank 13). At this moment he would need to gain 22 points to reach top 5, but that can change. Can he bounce back and get up to top 5 before the end of 2025 (1.5 years)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Alireza is rated top 5 in classical chess on any official FIDE rating list before 2026 (last one is the rating list for December 2025).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alireza's FIDE page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ratings.fide.com/profile/12573981", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ratings.fide.com/profile/12573981", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.10791561838358754, "month": 0.10791561838358754} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.120914588642023, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Weezing | 1719944962406 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700212225777 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719941381487 | 1719944960411 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vtv9lwey77 | how-many-members-will-be-announced | 0 | How many members will be announced to be part of SMNGG? | 1735685940000 | r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719824816132 | Heya | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SM entertainment is set to debut a new girl group in 2024. It is likely the lineup will be announced during the month of July and they will debut in the last quarter of 2024. Regardless of its announcement/debut dates, this market refers to the next girl group to be debuted by SM entertainment. Eventual sub-units of existing groups, super group projects or anything like that will obviously not be considered. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market refers to how many members will be announced initially to be part of the group. The number of trainees that officially debut could be different. I will resolve the market as soon as the members are announced by an official source. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | didnotask | 1719824816274 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKD6YwDz0BXvA0P4THjL3EqrBk7OkI0eSA818c1pS1EvkU=s96-c | 0 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "pr08qazuoc", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "3 - 5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'3':1 '5':2", "contractId": "vtv9lwey77", "createdTime": 1719824816132, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "m0g5pam2vr", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "6 - 8", "index": 1, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'6':1 '8':2", "contractId": "vtv9lwey77", "createdTime": 1719824816132, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "6f5qp3nky2", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "9 or more", "index": 2, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'9':1", "contractId": "vtv9lwey77", "createdTime": 1719824816132, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 353.5533905932738, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1707938205233 | 0 | 0.25 | True | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 9pumr8cvoh | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-julia-eckertjuliaeckert10-end | 0 | Will Julia Eckert@JuliaEckert10 end up with a post in Asimov Press or Quanta Magazine by 2030? | 1925009940000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719827077621 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719827077621 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5021437435323092 | ez07523nwa | {"NO": 10158.374714977395, "YES": 9844.059259938453} | 0.5100000000000001 | will-a-republican-president-choose | 20618.500604556455 | Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement? | 2840255940000 | SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4757509923080407 | False | plus | public | 1719827430419 | Scott Alexander | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves positive if a future Republican president chooses a replacement for Sonia Sotomayor. For example, if Trump wins the coming election, Sotomayor leaves the court in 2026, and Trump chooses her replacement, it will resolve positive.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It resolves negative if a Democratic president chooses Sotomayor's replacement. It will also resolve negative if something radical happens to the structure of the Supreme Court or partisan politics that makes this question incoherent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market only resolves once a nominee has been confirmed. If a nominee isn't confirmed, for example because the President and Senate can't agree, it will remain open until the President and Senate do agree on someone, and the party of the President whose nominee was eventually confirmed will be used to resolve this market. If Sotomayor is not replaced by 2060, this resolves N/A, unless at that point Manifold won't let me resolve markets N/A, in which case it resolves no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context and the reason I'm interested in this, see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/sonia-sotomayors-retirement-is-a", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/sonia-sotomayors-retirement-is-a", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.01000000000000012, "month": 0.01000000000000012} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 605.6151627231568, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100.00000000000001 | 10000 | ScottAlexander | 1720180859636 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c | 59 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1644789727818 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720180856399 | 1719862727126 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0cf7ka67ta | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-kalki-movie-becomes-top-collec | 0 | Will KALKI movie becomes top collected movie | 1720463340000 | yoKy4YF3vtQJWhZcz9fXA3N3Ckm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719827991431 | Crazy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "KALKI 2898 AD is a film directed by nag ashwin ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Crazy | 1719827991471 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKtZQoi9PtHiSgzJpuu8CPq6lYM_5KhQCN25OGKO4PdVZI_tA=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719827863332 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 4kfh9k1yde | {"NO": 91.17673204000674, "YES": 109.67710485184068} | 0.45394568234761745 | will-the-top-player-in-aoe2-lose-ag | 10 | Will the top player in AoE2 lose against an AOE2 AI by EOY 2026? (must be at least 3 games) | 1798779540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719828910617 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.04605431765238255, "month": -0.04605431765238255} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.32289514815931325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719846323557 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719846320302 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1 | gt3pyi6927 | {"NO": 1122.7758488179238, "YES": 352.66506407979335} | 0.2613074680258391 | will-i-encounter-issue-number-2-whe-u1w95ps8sc | 130 | Will I encounter Issue Number 2 when I resolve this market? | 1722409260000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.084914811074064 | False | public | 1719831697333 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero. Additional info: This market is reliability check for the bedtime accountability chatbot I'm working on (emile.chat). At the time of resolution, I will check whether or not a random Emile user received their daily check-ins from Emile as expected in the last seven days. If everything is as expected, this resolves NO. If they did not receive a check-in as expected, this resolves YES. I believe I solved the root cause of the bug that motivated me to maintain this reliability metric, but I still think it's worth keeping these markets around.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.1613074680258391, "month": 0.1613074680258391} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.224151182076243, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Charlie | 1719878485126 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1648498239600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.1 | 1719878481790 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
fbn3nw841 | are-you-optimistic-about-how-things | 0 | Are you optimistic about how things will be post-AGI? | 1720439940000 | OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719833226685 | jim | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | jim | 1719850136252 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690863320225 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719850135025 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | acextrgrlp | {"NO": 1441.1531769878661, "YES": 693.8887662795757} | 0.6749999369016346 | will-i-gain-a-new-close-friend-with | 743 | Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years? | 1878238740000 | wNkuCd4vjqOgiwBIXCVPVHRneI63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.591188979060913 | False | basic | public | 1719833724084 | Vanessa Kosoy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Close friend\" is defined as someone for whom:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both of us feel comfortable sharing intimate secrets with each other.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both of us feel comfortable asking each other for non-trivial favors.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since market creation, there was a period of at least 1 year during which we spent time together at least once a month.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the relationship is sexual it still counts, but ofc it can be platonic.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently I have two people that meet these criteria.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Feel free to ask any relevant questions about me.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/VanessaKosoy/will-i-have-a-new-serious-relations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/VanessaKosoy/will-i-have-a-new-serious-relations", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.17499993690163462, "month": 0.17499993690163462} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.797585305627965, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | VanessaKosoy | 1719931060974 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte_ALTuE-hy2f-vUSbXP-z4Ye8ZmPMTm1_h-6L7wCd1Mg=s96-c | 16 | 11 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1693113119174 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719931057730 | 1719929063017 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | 7qclgzty0q | {"NO": 3663.3923585923167, "YES": 272.97103398017066} | 1 | shot-fuse-will-the-trump-immunity-c | 2700 | [short fuse] Will the Trump immunity case be the last case decided this term? | 1719845470911 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.850508749020634 | True | basic | YES | public | 1719839411184 | Hyperlincoln | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Trump v. U.S., the presidential immunity case, be the very last case decided in this term?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.607641407683076, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719845470911 | 1000 | Hyperlincoln | 1719846570227 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1690992837377 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | False | 1719844106563 | 0.93 | jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | e1qq17aetg | {"NO": 209.38131022496137, "YES": 4775.975462784053} | 0 | will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal-2u4gnjta5a | 43696.336928649696 | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal during Euro 2024? | 1720215806239 | 0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.896064110329082 | True | basic | NO | public | 1719840953149 | Sindre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He has yet to score a goal during the European Cup. Will he end up goalless or will he score?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if he scores according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " *", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if he doesn't. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Penalties scored during penalty shoot-outs are not counted towards goals scored by individual players in their goal records. Own goals also do not count. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "4cfdf48d-17d1-4c06-9e57-aaa6cfd6a9e8", "url": "https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/", "image": "https://img.uefa.com/imgml/uefacom/euro2024/rebrand/og-image.png", "title": "Player Goals Stats | UEFA EURO 2024", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Visit UEFA.com for comprehensive Player Goals Stats for EURO 2024.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.3808675848669072, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 831.9039035664541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 4909.368820706499 | 1720215806239 | 1000 | Sindre | 1720215809436 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI7S8dzmYSGKjH1PuSnjsb_GGjLpRI4xSBiy5Nm67glFoQ=s96-c | 116 | 19 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1697226133927 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720215806016 | 1719870540468 | 0.05 | 0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | fvxgmn0qe9 | {"NO": 229.12878474779194, "YES": 43.64357804719853} | 0.8399999999999999 | will-the-mayor-of-paris-anne-hidalg | 329.77873249076987 | Will Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo publicly swim in the Seine before the Olympics open? | 1722052740000 | 9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719845012030 | Michael | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open water events for the Paris 2024 games will be held in the Seine. After concerns about water quality, the Mayor of Paris promised to swim in the Seine herself. However, the date for her swim has been ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "pushed back", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/sports/olympics/paris-mayor-promises-seine-will-ready-olympics-vows-swim-famed-river-a-rcna159011", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "multiple times", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/sports/article/2024/05/23/paris-mayor-anne-hidalgo-set-to-swim-in-the-seine-on-june-23_6672364_9.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Will Mayor Hidalgo swim in the Seine prior to the opening of the Paris games?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.02000000000000013, "week": 0.33999999999999986, "month": 0.33999999999999986} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.10474477410422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 12.323883846938449 | 100 | burkh4rt | 1720213817220 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c | 7 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706719887452 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720213814106 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 2b26rn6qg1 | {"NO": 946.6503322206687, "YES": 1056.3562552755743} | 0.4726146874054873 | will-bitcoin-hit-66000-in-july-2024 | 1125.4755065103411 | Will Bitcoin hit 66,000 in July 2024 | 1722488340000 | IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.778113269857466 | False | basic | public | 1719846897817 | Andrew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves yes if Bitcoin hits 66,000 in the month of July 2024 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "coindesk.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://coindesk.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.04993586164399244, "week": -0.027385312594512712, "month": -0.027385312594512712} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 36.25947976640375, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 96.01539723323708 | 1000 | AndrewCrosse | 1720213317554 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1709841963600 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720213313774 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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fa8sptpidw | which-parties-will-gain-in-vote-sha | 10 | Which parties will gain in vote share in the 2027 Swiss Federal Election? | 1824933540000 | FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719848513605 | Yann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.29647124726312774, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | Yann | 1719852759338 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c | 1 | 1 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "408gziv7ye", "prob": 0.6250404508790229, "text": "SVP/UDC (Far Right; populist anti-immigrant)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.518431043035104, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.90883044503779, "textFts": "'anti':6 'anti-immigr':5 'far':2 'immigr':7 'populist':4 'right':3 'svp/udc':1", "contractId": "fa8sptpidw", "createdTime": 1719848513605, "probChanges": {"day": 0.12504045087902294, "week": 0.12504045087902294, "month": 0.12504045087902294}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.12504045087902294, "probChangeWeek": 0.12504045087902294, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0.12504045087902294}, {"id": "wg0x94y5ho", "prob": 0.5, "text": "SP/PS (center-Left to Left; social democracy)", "index": 1, "poolNo": 16.666666666666668, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.666666666666668, "textFts": "'center':3 'center-left':2 'democraci':8 'left':4,6 'social':7 'sp/ps':1", "contractId": "fa8sptpidw", "createdTime": 1719848513605, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "067n9zxfzu", "prob": 0.5, "text": "FDP/PLR (center-Right; neo-liberal)", "index": 2, "poolNo": 16.666666666666668, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.666666666666668, "textFts": "'center':3 'center-right':2 'fdp/plr':1 'liber':7 'neo':6 'neo-liber':5 'right':4", "contractId": "fa8sptpidw", "createdTime": 1719848513605, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "3hs7gl9tid", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Mitte/Centre (center to center-Right; christian centrism)", "index": 3, "poolNo": 16.666666666666668, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.666666666666668, "textFts": "'center':2,5 'center-right':4 'centrism':8 'christian':7 'mitte/centre':1 'right':6", "contractId": "fa8sptpidw", "createdTime": 1719848513605, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "f1wiekrabh", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Grüne/Verts (center Left to Left; green politics)", "index": 4, "poolNo": 16.666666666666668, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.666666666666668, "textFts": "'/verts':2 'center':3 'green':7 'grüne':1 'left':4,6 'polit':8", "contractId": "fa8sptpidw", "createdTime": 1719848513605, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "0z0cv73b7x", "prob": 0.37495954912097706, "text": "Glib/Vlib (center to center-Left; green liberalism)", "index": 5, "poolNo": 12.90883044503779, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.518431043035104, "textFts": "'center':2,5 'center-left':4 'glib/vlib':1 'green':7 'left':6 'liber':8", "contractId": "fa8sptpidw", "createdTime": 1719848513605, "probChanges": {"day": -0.12504045087902294, "week": -0.12504045087902294, "month": -0.12504045087902294}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.12504045087902294, "probChangeWeek": -0.12504045087902294, "totalLiquidity": 16.666666666666668, "probChangeMonth": -0.12504045087902294}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1719606448794 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719851306071 | False | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kqhzexky7i | how-much-usd-trading-volume-will-po | 2928.4832680335294 | How much USD trading volume will Polymarket generate in July? $111M in June. | 1722571140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719848589421 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Polymarket had a yuge June, with over $111M in trading volume, driven largely off of trading in election markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/polymarket-surpasses-100m-june-trading-volume-driven-u-s-election-predictions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/polymarket-surpasses-100m-june-trading-volume-driven-u-s-election-predictions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FizzxTSc4gB.png?alt=media&token=d5af53bf-fca6-48ce-9e00-53b390212ab3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to Richard Chen's Dune dashboard, the crypto betting site generated $111M in handle, after $63M in May.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fp9tvVxXyr0.png?alt=media&token=5989dfa0-61ba-4da4-bcb4-50fc2b307bcc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will happen in July? 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wqs4uk9wkp | how-many-riders-will-wear-the-yello-7xhzxf86v5 | 7619.712996930339 | How many riders will wear the yellow jersey in the 2024 Tour de France? | 1721624340000 | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719848706651 | Eliza | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013. 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m3wi5fm1v2 | what-will-be-total-betting-handle-o | 1800.491960197102 | What will be total betting handle on Polymarket for main Presidential Election market by end of July? Starting $205M. | 1722571140000 | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719851113798 | Niko | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has taken a year to get to $205M in betting on the main Polymarket Presidential Election futures market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fgj5Tr2JU2C.png?alt=media&token=b082c581-4a12-41c0-a915-8f8b4ffb9908", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However Polymarket is growing rapidly, and the election is heating up.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "There was $111M bet on Polymarket in June alone -- much of it on the election.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/polymarket-surpasses-100m-june-trading-volume-driven-u-s-election-predictions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/polymarket-surpasses-100m-june-trading-volume-driven-u-s-election-predictions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "You can see a Dune dashboard on total bet on Polymarket by month here, and it's projected to grow in July.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FN6OGEwyUAo.png?alt=media&token=f8119fbc-ba7c-4a9d-862f-909791c3c33e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much of that will be bet in the main elections market? 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evy3lumqil | how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20 | 7642.157788588018 | How much will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | 1721973600000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 7.239853402547027 | False | plus | public | 1719851312083 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo for \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " for trading on Thursday, July 25th, at 11PM PT. It will resolve when the actuals are posted.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Deadpool 2\" (2018) was $125,507,153", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2488436225/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". 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vmjqd181mr | which-super-smash-bros-ultimate-cha-ia0ijiesl1 | 0 | Which Super Smash Bros Ultimate character do you most commonly play as? | 1722484740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | none | 0 | 1000000 | False | public | 1719851500492 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by poll after market close", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 89 characters in Smash Bros Ultimate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Smash_Bros._series_characters", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Super_Smash_Bros._series_characters", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | POLL | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | strutheo | 1719851531074 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719851529741 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | nvd17j1hkh | {"NO": 9295.351231011473, "YES": 107.58065780922516} | 0.988558817709067 | will-biden-give-a-nationallytelevis | 9285.975184970304 | Will Biden give a nationally-televised interview or town hall in July? | 1722495540000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.888466440673447 | False | basic | public | 1719852366923 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.046487206889688104, "week": 0.48855881770906695, "month": 0.48855881770906695} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 67.85667137281496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 5641.675905371868 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720221846203 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720221843115 | 1719951403681 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | zzy3958flx | {"NO": 442.0272707895167, "YES": 2262.3038578906544} | 0.16345160771981548 | will-biden-fire-a-senior-member-of | 2001.3590531675868 | Will Biden fire a senior member of his campaign staff this week? | 1720508340000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.676808850640715 | False | basic | public | 1719852496956 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to credible media reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivated by this CNN article: \"Biden’s family encourages him to stay in the race as they discuss whether top advisers should be fired\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/30/politics/biden-family-camp-david-debate/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/30/politics/biden-family-camp-david-debate/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.3365483922801845, "month": -0.3365483922801845} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 41.19445647286125, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1719955912538 | 0 | 24 | 14 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719955909230 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8o0rnayubg | on-a-hypothetical-2024-democratic-t | 150 | On a hypothetical 2024 Democratic ticket for President, which Prez+VP combo would you be most excited to vote for? | 1724039940000 | WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719852964642 | Luke | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pairings are NOT in particular order (e.g. Whitmer + Newsom = Newsom + Whitmer)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to comment additional pairings. I’ll add any that get significant traction. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By default, all options will resolve to N/A. If someone other than Biden is chosen to run during the DNC then their options will remain until a running mate is selected at which time that option would resolve to a Yes. This market is meant to judge sentiment and all Mana will be returned upon a N/A result. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.363137664767422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | SpaceboyLuke | 1720002886014 | 0 | 3 | 2 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "rv658eiusx", "prob": 0.6585214682159815, "text": "Newsom + Whitmer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.86834706341347, "userId": "WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.01065045754132, "textFts": "'newsom':1 'whitmer':2", "contractId": "8o0rnayubg", "createdTime": 1719852964642, "probChanges": {"day": 0.07085926703857681, "week": 0.15852146821598145, "month": 0.15852146821598145}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.07085926703857681, "probChangeWeek": 0.15852146821598145, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": 0.15852146821598145}, {"id": "26kq8wbkuu", "prob": 0.45394643477052427, "text": "Newsom + Harris", "index": 1, "poolNo": 91.17687042103996, "userId": "WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 109.67693839261675, "textFts": 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0.5000000000000006 | 1jr14uvjh6 | {"NO": 1105.8503889951598, "YES": 904.2814561096802} | 0.5501382367968428 | will-twisters-2024-have-a-rotten-to | 1326.5647438229264 | Will "Twisters" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 75%? ("Certified Fresh") | 1722063540000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.520849485679694 | False | basic | public | 1719855171821 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Twisters\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/twisters", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 75% or higher, one week after release (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July 26th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the original \"Twister\" (1996) currently has a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomatometer of 63%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1071167-twister", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is the equivalent score I will use.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Certified Fresh\" is just used for illustrative purposes (AFAIK, it requires >=75% Tomatometer, but there might be other restrictions—the market resolves solely based on the displayed score).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Twisters\" (2024) is a standalone sequel to the 1996 original, directed by Lee Isaac Chung (\"Minari\"), starring Glen Powell (\"Top Gun: Maverick\") and Daisy Edgar Jones (\"Normal People\"). ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.05013823679684282, "month": 0.05013823679684282} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 42.52562839043218, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1720107213232 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720107210176 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | tz7lazt3ut | {"NO": 804.8728868088463, "YES": 1242.432210587677} | 0.39313773400572855 | will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-yll6ur2ywn | 250 | Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q3 2024? | 1727765940000 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.577663663694121 | False | basic | public | 1719857207693 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada raises interest rates in Q3 2024 (July, August, September). The current \"target for the overnight rate\" is 4.75%, having been cut by 0.25% in Q2. Past interest rate decisions are made available ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on the Bank of Canada's website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in the third quarter of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.10686226599427145, "month": -0.10686226599427145} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 7.56778941232296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | cash | 1719876946053 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1669744545591 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719876942909 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000002 | d4f7aribpy | {"NO": 392.12870872691803, "YES": 2550.1830846473704} | 0.13327231655392274 | will-a-presidential-age-limit-amend | 1758.2715190057954 | Will a presidential age limit amendment be introduced in the US Congress before 2030? | 1893409200000 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.711549022826844 | False | basic | public | 1719869380541 | DismalScientist | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if presidential age limit amendment introduced on the floor of the US Congress before 2030. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"In the House, a bill is introduced ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "when it is dropped in the hopper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (a wooden box on the House floor). In the Senate, the bill is submitted to clerks on the Senate floor.\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.congress.gov/legislative-process/introduction-and-referral-of-bills#:~:text=In%20the%20House%2C%20a%20bill,Res", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.congress.gov/legislative-process/introduction-and-referral-of-bills#:~:text=In%20the%20House%2C%20a%20bill,Res", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -0.004596615097823831, "week": -0.36672768344607726, "month": -0.36672768344607726} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 31.84949649318657, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | DismalScientist | 1720240431381 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720240428264 | 1719953075678 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14 | ot6fxz4he8 | {"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000} | 0.14 | will-openai-api-base-models-are-not | 0 | Will "OpenAI API base models are not sycophantic, a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | 1738368000000 | h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.894527931239049 | False | public | 1719869406997 | Less Wrong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "OpenAI API base models are not sycophantic, at any size", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ou8DayvDXxufkjHD/openai-api-base-models-are-not-sycophantic-at-any-size", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LessWrong | 1719869407851 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1706554674237 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | i3nsy188b1 | {"NO": 124.2432210587677, "YES": 80.48728868088463} | 0.6068622659942715 | will-the-nyc-subway-still-report-an-fg1sjlp340 | 25 | Will the NYC subway still report an On-time Performance of >=80% at the end of October 2024? (overall 12-month average) | 1730782740000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719869538543 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://metrics.mta.info/?subway/operationalmetrics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://metrics.mta.info/?subway/operationalmetrics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MTA Subway Monthly Performance Percentages Jan 2015 - Oct 2023:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FW1NXJJ-SvG.png?alt=media&token=ef35b5c0-86bf-4a1b-a7e5-76a7751513e4", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.10686226599427151, "month": 0.10686226599427151} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | strutheo | 1719925036025 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1719925032939 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6658478060417315 | lax01or72h | {"NO": 1749.616983337648, "YES": 745.6464632975459} | 0.8238082873833825 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-gsxkukg581 | 1106.928526624594 | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of September? | 1725249540000 | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.691891182016793 | False | basic | public | 1719870175079 | chris (strutheo) | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the beginning of Sept. This market resolves one week into Sept to allow time for the average to have been updated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the 538 average as of Sept 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on Sept 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FjTIymzuiG1.png?alt=media&token=c84dc033-d23b-4705-bbca-5f732c87854e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0.006328037118635055, "week": 0.3238082873833825, "month": 0.3238082873833825} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 21.97610972849425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 50 | 1000 | strutheo | 1720179297218 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1700846926650 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1720179294071 | 1720048560446 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rdotdpj978 | what-will-trumps-margin-be-in-the-n | 10730.97491083918 | What will Trump/Biden's margin be in the next NYT/Siena poll? | 1720031823190 | Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | d7votrwgk3 | public | 1719870242180 | Eric Neyman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Next NYT/Siena poll\": the next national Biden vs. Trump poll with pollster \"The New York Times/Siena College\" to appear on The FiveThirtyEight website.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Multiple polls may appear around the same time, because polls vary along dimensions like \"likely voters or registered voters\" and \"just Biden vs. Trump or other candidates too\". If there is both a likely voter poll and a registered voter poll, I'll look at the likely voter poll. Then, if there's a Biden vs. Trump poll and a poll that includes other candidates, I'll look at the Biden vs. Trump number. 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ers8ro263m | how-will-joe-biden-perform-making-h | 0 | How will Joe Biden perform making his "statement on Supreme Court's immunity ruling" on July 1st? | 1719872656611 | d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1719872134728 | Bence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Other\" option cannot resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will resolve based on media reporting by New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, New Yorker, and similar left or center bias publications that reported on concerns about Biden's age after last week's debate.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market references the following public appearance:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JUST IN: Biden to deliver statement on Supreme Court's immunity ruling at 7:45 p.m., White House says", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/BNONews/status/1807896946763252075", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/BNONews/status/1807896946763252075", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719872656611 | 1000 | bence | 1719872656611 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY6q8sP8ydlU9daTxBnT6rxi4S_cnrdBUjDR2INFbY=s96-c | 0 | 0 | ONLY_CREATOR | [{"id": "7cvxreucqk", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Good - media says 'concerns calmed' by this appearance", "index": 0, "poolNo": 166.66666666666666, "userId": "d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'appear':8 'calm':5 'concern':4 'good':1 'media':2 'say':3", "contractId": "ers8ro263m", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1719872134728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719872656611, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "lun3piow4v", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Neutral - media does not comment on impact on ongoing concerns", "index": 1, "poolNo": 166.66666666666666, "userId": "d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'comment':5 'concern':10 'impact':7 'media':2 'neutral':1 'ongo':9", "contractId": "ers8ro263m", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1719872134728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719872656611, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "nwybgbaafc", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Bad - media describes as 'concerns reaffirmed' during this statement", "index": 2, "poolNo": 166.66666666666666, "userId": "d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'bad':1 'concern':5 'describ':3 'media':2 'reaffirm':6 'statement':9", "contractId": "ers8ro263m", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1719872134728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719872656611, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}, {"id": "p8n73cczwt", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 3, "poolNo": 166.66666666666666, "userId": "d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ers8ro263m", "resolverId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "createdTime": 1719872134728, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0, "probChangeWeek": 0, "resolutionTime": 1719872656611, "totalLiquidity": 288.6751345948129, "probChangeMonth": 0}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1677945553337 | 0 | 0.25 | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0hqgfrjjmm | how-much-will-twisters-2024-gross-d | 3267.0309748775926 | How much will "Twisters" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend? | 1721372340000 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1719876455929 | Ziddletwix | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on", "type": "text"}, {"text": " BoxOfficeMojo for \"Twisters\" (2024).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt12584954/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " for trading on Thursday, July 18th, at 10PM PT. It will resolve when the actuals are posted, typically between Monday & Wednesday.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for the original ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Twister\" (1996) was $41,059,405", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0117998/similar/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Twisters\" (2024) is a standalone sequel to the 1996 original, directed by Lee Isaac Chung (\"Minari\"), starring Glen Powell (\"Top Gun: Maverick\") and Daisy Edgar Jones (\"Normal People\").", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 33.50048221005879, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ziddletwix | 1719928444363 | 0 | 5 | 5 | ANYONE | [{"id": "v0oe8kxziu", "prob": 0.9576502081696147, "text": ">$50 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1188.824707261236, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.57293158382009, "textFts": "'50':1 'million':2", "contractId": "0hqgfrjjmm", "createdTime": 1719876455929, "probChanges": {"day": 0.4399999999999912, "week": 0.4399999999999912, "month": 0.4399999999999912}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.4399999999999912, "probChangeWeek": 0.4399999999999912, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.4399999999999912}, {"id": "0knkrgsuuw", "prob": 0.8199999999999991, "text": ">$60 million", "index": 1, "poolNo": 533.5936864527358, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 117.13032141645502, "textFts": "'60':1 'million':2", "contractId": "0hqgfrjjmm", "createdTime": 1719876455929, "probChanges": {"day": 0.279999999999999, "week": 0.279999999999999, "month": 0.279999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.279999999999999, "probChangeWeek": 0.279999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.279999999999999}, {"id": "dqi9doemai", "prob": 0.61, "text": ">$70 million", "index": 2, "poolNo": 312.6602153399281, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 199.89751472552786, "textFts": "'70':1 'million':2", "contractId": "0hqgfrjjmm", "createdTime": 1719876455929, "probChanges": {"day": 0.10999999999999999, "week": 0.10999999999999999, "month": 0.10999999999999999}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.10999999999999999, "probChangeWeek": 0.10999999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": 0.10999999999999999}, {"id": "iv6ydgebpc", "prob": 0.329106484684216, "text": ">$80 million", "index": 3, "poolNo": 175.09809915278544, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 356.9427669541083, "textFts": "'80':1 'million':2", "contractId": "0hqgfrjjmm", "createdTime": 1719876455929, "probChanges": {"day": -0.170893515315784, "week": -0.170893515315784, "month": -0.170893515315784}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.170893515315784, "probChangeWeek": -0.170893515315784, "totalLiquidity": 250, "probChangeMonth": -0.170893515315784}] | 0.13333333333333333 | 1680369520541 | 0 | 0.25 | 1719928441284 | False | old | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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33ahemx0k8 | if-the-boston-celtics-are-sold-befo | 0 | If the Boston Celtics are sold before March 31, 2025 what will the franchise valuation be? | 1743922740000 | RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1719878214198 | Rory | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A sale is defined as a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "majority stake", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in the franchise.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "franchise valuation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " is the new value of the entire enterprise based on the price paid for a majority stake by the new owners.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: we will use ESPN as the default source for the franchise valuation. 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1668408783448 | 0 | 0.25 | 1720215552905 | 1720209332041 | True | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 8lj900rk0z | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-an-assassination-attempt-be-ma-g4qpnnzu96 | 0 | Will an assassination attempt be made on Jill Biden in 2024? | 1719882386637 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1719882364985 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1719882386637 | 100 | StochasticParrot | 1719882386637 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13333333333333333 | 1650319241876 | True | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | 0 |
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