CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.5000000000000001

4rknzdc1ke

{"NO": 108.34726777719229, "YES": 92.29582069908973}

0.5400000000000001

will-ethan-my-close-friend-visit-a

40.822653393307185

Will Ethan (my close friend) visit a nightclub while in Portugal for a week?

1720411140000

UxXLXew3vCfNrWEi1Z6Oa5Ddexq2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719791170859

Leaf

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ethan is a nerd. He is by no means bad looking but at age 21 he has not even held hands with a woman or tried alcohol before. During our week in Lisbon my friends and I will try to convince him to join us at a club or bar, but we anticipate that it...

BINARY

{"day": 0.08605356522947588, "week": 0.04000000000000015, "month": 0.04000000000000015}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3658007235281482, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

30.822653393307185

100

Leaf

1720201660809

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJruXgo0amIj_2ytjzzXSnb04WEblZTcIXAz--CEHynepkckG7L=s96-c

3

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f/5o9hyno1xa.jpg

1719614122705

0

0.25

0.5

1720201657727

0

dq73pootr1

on-how-many-days-will-i-smoke-weed-metvmyergx

3847.044714215565

On how many days will i Smoke Weed in July 2024?

1722463140000

rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719791589205

Drugsornot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "01.07 ❌", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "02.07 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "03.07 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "04.07 ✔", "type": "text"}]}, ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 25.17682680195366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Drugsornot

1720131327462

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJC2QE9apST7N13cfgLTRsUfeRGnBlFrdXSqW2C5-_Y=s96-c

6

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "bket0jdozh", "prob": 0.02158391271234817, "text": "0-10 days", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.068828041978453, "userId": "rMROKBpw5hSaHASvQsDrGzJ88xi1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1272.382504209762, "textFts": "'-10':2 '0':1 'day':3", "contractId": "dq73pootr1", "createdTime": 1719791589206, "probChanges": {"day":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/66pnftewk0.jpg

1701650122616

0

0.25

1719922324416

True

0

0.5000000000000004

j6zt6ti9j3

{"NO": 1924.2554398757152, "YES": 519.6815242287116}

0.7873588673269457

will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e4-a-dan

1150.73301658149

Will "House of the Dragon" S2E4 ("A Dance of Dragons") be rated >8.5 on IMDB, 2 days after release?

1720404900000

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

9.60219938130837

False

basic

public

1719791744628

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E4 (\"A Dance of Dragons\"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.2873588673269457, "month": 0.2873588673269457}

0

{"creatorFee": 26.810364402331608, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ziddletwix

1720085292124

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

13

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/xe0thpr8cy.jpg

1680369520541

0

0.25

0.5

1720085289011

0

va7r8awm9c

if-neither-biden-nor-kamala-is-the

4454.012040022436

If neither Biden nor Kamala is the Democratic nominee for president, who will be the Democratic VP candidate?

1722571140000

Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719792418012

Alexander Miller

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 44.8353979615502, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

40

1000

AlexanderMiller

1720211259443

0

https://firebasestorage.…b54-8f8eda824b90

18

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "4ok0kkljh2", "prob": 0.8155211590180649, "text": "Biden or Kamala is the nominee (for president)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 743.3602642768328, "userId": "Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 168.15534271475278, "textFts": "'biden':1 'kamala':3 'nomine':6 'presid':8", "contractId": "va7r8awm...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/6rtz90tjyx.jpg

1698758419090

0

0.25

1720211256179

1719820758293

True

0

0.5

axdguyaqbb

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-overwatch-2-implement-a-6v6-ga

0

Will Overwatch 2 implement a 6v6 game mode outside of the Arcade at any point in 2024?

1735718340000

aE5DNen5abQazD0RlpGCtTUws2k2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719793397726

Andrew Brown

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

AndrewBrown

1719793397757

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJeN_apmwR7XocElja1WS8Y9d_4jY6bRKmt-bVdD_cr6FE=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/0btvxo5na8.jpg

1701328513122

0

0.25

0.5

0

wem3zhc39z

how-many-new-heroes-will-dota-2-rel

45

How many new heroes will Dota 2 release during 2024?

1735718340000

aE5DNen5abQazD0RlpGCtTUws2k2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719793717786

Andrew Brown

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Number of new heroes released in recent years: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2019: 3", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2020: 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4959706866678813, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

40

100

AndrewBrown

1720215339530

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJeN_apmwR7XocElja1WS8Y9d_4jY6bRKmt-bVdD_cr6FE=s96-c

2

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "mk1lreqhnd", "prob": 0.1331830483458367, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.315406347562327, "userId": "aE5DNen5abQazD0RlpGCtTUws2k2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 73.64590433050226, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "wem3zhc39z", "createdTime": 1719793717786, "probChanges": {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16,...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/a7gp5k5wo8.jpg

1701328513122

0

0.25

1720215336335

True

0

plnqru6s5w

if-biden-drops-out-who-will-he-endo

2995.4747724422004

If Biden drops out, who will he endorse as the Democratic nominee?

1724396340000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719794479784

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden endorses that person for the Democratic nomination prior to the official nomination being made.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 66.74608581194248, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1100

DismalScientist

1720155776031

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

18

2

ANYONE

[{"id": "9zio96xrw5", "prob": 0.4247880663191165, "text": "Kamala Harris", "index": 0, "poolNo": 215.93360858389366, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 292.3989593599439, "textFts": "'harri':2 'kamala':1", "contractId": "plnqru6s5w", "createdTime": 1719794479785, "probChanges": {"day...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/9b2rugn3jc.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

1720155772872

1719798611198

True

0

0.49999999999999994

lclc2vfi7u

{"NO": 80.48728868088463, "YES": 124.2432210587677}

0.3931377340057284

will-victor-wembanyama-be-considere

25

Will Victor Wembanyama be considered the GOAT in 2040?

2240611140000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719794613410

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on expert rankings such as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://theathletic.com/3137873/2022/02/23/the-nba-75-the-top-75-nba-players-of-all-time-from-mj-and-lebron-to-lenny-wilkens/?amp=1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.10686226599427162, "month": -0.10686226599427162}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

DismalScientist

1719800742895

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/lqesf7n6ny.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

0.5

1719800739839

0

4t5qfkjgl7

how-many-points-will-bronny-james-s

22.481165353080435

How many points will Bronny James score against the Sacramento Kings on July 6?

1719808760240

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

MKT

public

1719794872259

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"James' NBA debut could come on July 6 when the Lakers face the Kings as part of the California Classic Summer League in San Francisco.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LA will play three games in the California Cla...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5478200778601192, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719808760240

100

DismalScientist

1719808760240

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

2

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "jiell0534h", "prob": 0.5, "text": "0 points", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.285714285714286, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 14.285714285714286, "textFts": "'0':1 'point':2", "contractId": "4t5qfkjgl7", "resolution": "MKT", "resolverId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "create...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/th9lzdo787.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

1719804933338

1719808735754

0.5

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

False

0

bype3ejwux

for-my-bachelor-party-which-activit

60.87537479655889

For my bachelor party, which activities will most attendees report enjoying/being a good use of time...

1720421940000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719795796674

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Attendees are 28-32 yo males with college degrees.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will have people fill out an anonymous survey and will follow up over text if I am missing responses from a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.646591131778517, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

130

DismalScientist

1719837511671

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

3

ANYONE

[{"id": "zaqs0cfft2", "prob": 0.5, "text": "Go to Michael Heizer's massive sculpture \"City\" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_(artwork)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 10, "textFts": "'/wiki/city_(artwork)':11 'citi':8 'en.wikipedia.org':10 'en.wiki...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/u1oyyipdme.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

1719837508635

False

0

aexpqiyplv

which-nba-team-will-increase-their

0

Which NBA team will increase their title odds most during free agency?

1728111540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719797763130

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based as change in implied % chance of winning from ESPN BET odds prior the start of free agency to the beginning of NBA preseason (October 4th). Here are the ESPN BET odds prior to the start of free agency:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

3000

DismalScientist

1719797763130

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "7o6ceut8pn", "prob": 0.03333333333333333, "text": "Boston Celtics", "index": 0, "poolNo": 51.724137931034484, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1500, "textFts": "'boston':1 'celtic':2", "contractId": "aexpqiyplv", "createdTime": 1719797763130, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/id8by1c40a.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

True

0

pjr0x81o1j

if-biden-drops-out-will-he-endorse-7wvpk6hvx6

7125.0575135625

If Biden drops out, will he endorse Kamala Harris the same day? (with "Biden never drops out" option)

1730879940000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719798239642

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden endorses Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination on the same day that he officially drops out of the race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Biden drops ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 112.53302369948798, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1000

DismalScientist

1720194687604

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

32

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "8kfidp16e3", "prob": 0.25800223164925534, "text": "Yes", "index": 0, "poolNo": 208.48049917151502, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 599.576461571897, "textFts": "'yes':1", "contractId": "pjr0x81o1j", "createdTime": 1719798239642, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": -0.053333...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/nt7tk28075.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

1720194684519

True

0

0.1899536022162082

1unnxv20aj

{"NO": 934.4202765501526, "YES": 1168.5692222358393}

0.15790213898785793

will-biden-be-nominated-win-reelect

1816.3863512513942

Will Biden be nominated, win reelection, serve out his whole term, and get his well deserved retirement?

1861937940000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.751022462932266

False

basic

public

1719799969196

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO as soon as one condition fails (losing nomination / losing election / impeachment and removal from office / death)", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.016219003757082684, "week": -0.34209786101214207, "month": -0.34209786101214207}

0

{"creatorFee": 33.70151018883374, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

19.81160523488421

1000

strutheo

1720179034940

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

30

1

0.13333333333333333

1700846926650

0

0.25

0.5

1720179031813

1719976972938

0

0.5

tujb4fx0nt

{"NO": 87.31640576818427, "YES": 114.5260150371848}

0.4325969011855095

will-prime-minister-pham-minh-chinh

15

Will Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh resign or be removed from the Communist Party of Vietnam Politburo before 2026?

1767196740000

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719801875696

Josh Wilkes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chinh is one of only two figures who could become General Secretary in 2026 after Nguyen Phu Trong leaves office. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The other is President To Lam, who is seen as...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.06740309881449053, "month": -0.06740309881449053}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4739849628152022, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JoshuaWilkes

1719817947587

0

https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/3rzbomd8ol.jpg

1662006482315

0

0.25

0.5

1719817944486

0

x0j7t2wt7o

who-will-become-general-secretary-o

9.641675214588417

Who will become General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2026?

1769875140000

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719802108595

Josh Wilkes

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the 14th National Congress ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nguyen Phu Trong is theoretically going to step down, however if he stays on he would be eligible for this question ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3583247854115908, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

JoshuaWilkes

1719837285506

0

https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "a6611856dp", "prob": 0.33333333333333354, "text": "To Lam", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.00000000000001, "userId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 49.99999999999998, "textFts": "'lam':2", "contractId": "x0j7t2wt7o", "createdTime": 1719802108595, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mo...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/t4qbgkri72.jpg

1662006482315

0

0.25

1719837282377

True

0

cjitlabr28

in-their-rookie-wnba-seasons-who-wi

7

In their rookie (W)NBA Seasons, who will record the most points between Cailin Clark and Bronny James?

1744606740000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719802518532

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Caitlin Clark plays for the WNBA's Indiana Fever which has 40 regular season games in 2024. Bronny James was drafted by the NBA's Los Angeles which has 82 games scheduled in the 2024-25 regular season.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3584951721105966, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ovals

1719832062549

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "wfn2bxe7wa", "prob": 0.1111111111111111, "text": "Clark Points > 4x James Points", "index": 0, "poolNo": 62.5, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'4x':3 'clark':1 'jame':4 'point':2,5", "contractId": "cjitlabr28", "createdTime": 1719802518532, "probChanges":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/5p7km1ghs9.jpg

1697477345360

0

0.25

1719832059339

1719802865730

True

0

0.5259116270786944

cd9xhpsbs0

{"NO": 23692.369188859186, "YES": 17087.988996595865}

0.60599703208943

will-ai-agents-be-able-to-code-a-sm

35762.81622884593

Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?

1751439540000

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

0

1.4931675560718878

False

plus

public

1719802886715

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm thinking of something like ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://mentat.ai/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://mentat.ai/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decorat...

BINARY

{"day": 0.06988281764126636, "week": 0.10599703208943001, "month": 0.10599703208943001}

0

{"creatorFee": 1007.6654760282348, "platformFee": 7.66547602823487, "liquidityFee": 0}

12050

20000

JamesGrugett

1720242760093

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

119

5

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/8hlh7wigx6.jpg

1639087027342

0

0.25

0.5

1720242757045

1719944291061

0

0.5

m3wphi3mit

{"NO": 69.56346769345197, "YES": 143.75361567751884}

0.3261035946777739

will-electionbettingoddscom-be-usin

45

Will electionbettingodds.com be using Manifold as one of their sources by EOY?

1735642740000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719804859787

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently their sources are these: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdE6h9OOSuQ.png?alt=media&token=67ab8c58-b5b8-...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1738964053222261, "month": -0.1738964053222261}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2463843224811624, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

jim

1719837168101

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…m/6xxzn3xscz.jpg

1690863320225

0

0.25

0.5

1719837165032

0

0.5000000000000001

rk2eveooes

{"NO": 531.0850045437941, "YES": 1882.9377433825443}

0.21999999999999992

stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boein

3551.870510745924

Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21?

1721563140000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

cpmm-1

0

9.63454256494493

False

basic

public

1719805211230

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clone of (and resolves identically to) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://po...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.2800000000000001, "month": -0.2800000000000001}

0

{"creatorFee": 75.82797627769696, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

jim

1720146363772

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

21

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…m/ydmmotvqyh.jpg

1690863320225

0

0.25

0.5

1720146360726

1719819115305

0

okcc4hinth

klay-thompson-next-team

864.5942294352391

Klay Thompson next team

1720414740000

hc4sh3ykkad6PwL9ebegn36NWfE3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719805750068

Nicole Wilson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.8714770005064865, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

NicoleWilson

1720038522688

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdmaXSsnh_XMnMVuESEmp27UwzswHPIJ8PHH0q1w4iG=s96-c

7

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "v9ckzdez64", "prob": 0.9886905766730619, "text": "Mavericks", "index": 0, "poolNo": 233.7491152921842, "userId": "hc4sh3ykkad6PwL9ebegn36NWfE3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.673806911391969, "textFts": "'maverick':1", "contractId": "okcc4hinth", "createdTime": 1719805750068, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/swznlg7wlo.jpg

1687830306250

0

0.25

1720038519492

True

0

bfpnmn9cur

will-donald-trump-lead-joe-biden-by

70

Will Donald Trump lead Joe Biden by at least this much in the 538 polling average at any point in July 2024?

1722484740000

vcWSUFg2E9QnftwOgvdGQ7FPziA2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719808245201

Guy Cohen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Donald Trump’s polling lead over Joe Biden reaches each listed amount at any point in July 2024, the corresponding amount will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, it ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4800144087073832, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

GuyCohen

1719955974426

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtegVMmYNHa0cwfrPTcGDfRtlb9N_ChRppJ7zUVeTjBg=s96-c

3

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "x1jx5tz22t", "prob": 0.8214809626934025, "text": "2 points", "index": 0, "poolNo": 23.83493512422368, "userId": "vcWSUFg2E9QnftwOgvdGQ7FPziA2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5.179657065564508, "textFts": "'2':1 'point':2", "contractId": "bfpnmn9cur", "createdTime": 1719808245201, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/6l45zcgjbv.jpg

1690680671946

0

0.25

1719955971353

False

0

l0z40jqt2j

how-many-points-will-bronny-james-s-d2tm9f6as2

896.4465370505758

How many points will Bronny James score in NBA debut? (July 6 against Sacremento Kings' summer league team)

1720335540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719808671018

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"James' NBA debut could come on July 6 when the Lakers face the Kings as part of the California Classic Summer League in San Francisco.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LA will play three games in the California Cla...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 15.54843570732036, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DismalScientist

1719949770458

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

5

3

DISABLED

[{"id": "g6tua8b11u", "prob": 0.1587849751006472, "text": "0 points", "index": 0, "poolNo": 88.68406085143585, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 469.8326426038041, "textFts": "'0':1 'point':2", "contractId": "l0z40jqt2j", "createdTime": 1719808671018, "probChanges": {"day": -0.05623...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/iogck7j6vf.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

1719949767357

True

0

0.5000000000000004

7kbdk5mlml

{"NO": 484.322104837852, "YES": 2064.7416048350574}

0.18999999999999995

will-anyone-except-biden-harris-or

6835.600339241181

Will anyone except Biden, Harris, or Trump be a major party nominee?

1724396340000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

9.460719305307073

False

basic

public

1719809015702

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone except Donald Trump is officially selected as the Repub...

BINARY

{"day": 0.030719684676961595, "week": -0.31000000000000005, "month": -0.31000000000000005}

0

{"creatorFee": 139.438704926045, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

602.3808110938235

1000

ManifoldPolitics

1720235253228

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

46

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/nqqfyqfb7p.jpg

1701801625125

0

0.25

0.5

1720235250114

0

0.5000000000000001

22mn424iti

{"NO": 717.7405625652733, "YES": 1393.2610920384714}

0.34000000000000014

will-i-lose-another-character-in-my

838.4497057557543

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

1735711140000

nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2

cpmm-1

0

9.587492009694252

False

basic

public

1719809503340

Matt P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've been playing in a PbP RPG campaign for just over a year now. In that time we've played B/X, SWN, and now (for a while) 4e D&D. In that time, I have lost a character in the B/X game (unlucky ambush roll + lvl 1 character = instant death), and t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.15999999999999986, "month": -0.15999999999999986}

0

{"creatorFee": 24.824388701925354, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MattP

1719839426166

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-3308b1a5324f

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…P/c4ixnymuj5.jpg

1644871619181

0

0.25

0.5

1719827940711

1719839356238

0

0.5000000000000004

sw3gqfsspl

{"NO": 747.0887806958779, "YES": 1338.529001959506}

0.358209824882052

will-either-biden-or-harris-win-the

6302.716219634461

Will either Biden or Harris win the 2024 Presidential Election?

1731311940000

vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952

cpmm-1

0

9.405278721344596

False

basic

public

1719809677923

Manifold Politics

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is declared the winner of the 2024 US presidential election by the Associated Press, or NO if the election is called by the AP for anyone else. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0.026352358389706065, "week": -0.141790175117948, "month": -0.141790175117948}

0

{"creatorFee": 174.46642628450533, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

60

1000

ManifoldPolitics

1720226716793

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d6-f89dcf8e5621

53

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/cun0b95rtb.jpg

1701801625125

0

0.25

0.5

1720226713677

1719834397653

0

0.5

kq2zxjbgnw

{"NO": 598.8669767736781, "YES": 1669.819907899038}

0.26397074925571823

will-i-encounter-issue-number-1-whe-cgdjamfj9i

2762.3847047473478

Will I encounter Issue Number 1 when I resolve this market?

1720400520000

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

9.611618350482441

False

public

1719810131513

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.23602925074428177, "month": -0.23602925074428177}

0

{"creatorFee": 66.4312420247004, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Charlie

1719878580437

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

6

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/0qdw40303u.jpg

1648498239600

0

0.25

0.5

1719878575783

0

0.49999999999999994

wbf3hxvnlq

{"NO": 72.01104026938951, "YES": 138.86759533802768}

0.34148096634809916

will-fernando-alonso-receive-an-aut

40

Will Fernando Alonso receive an automatic race ban before March 24th 2025?

1742885940000

Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719811208519

Enlil

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fernando Alonso as of June 30th 2024 has 8 penalty points. His first points will expire in March 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Fernando Alonso receive an automatic race ban due to...

BINARY

{"day": -0.05165676765762922, "week": -0.15851903365190084, "month": -0.15851903365190084}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1324046619723147, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

15

100

Enlil

1720188782550

0

https://firebasestorage.…679-a63c7b518da2

2

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…l/2obtdobjpp.jpg

1698989439494

0

0.25

0.5

1720188779487

0

0.4999999999999998

wv6a74x1fr

{"NO": 1781.7736045541196, "YES": 561.2385307785753}

0.7604628152304116

will-keenen-hardcore-upload-at-leas

801

Will Keenen Hardcore upload at least 2 videos in July?

1722488340000

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

cpmm-1

0

9.622890879948423

False

basic

public

1719812664127

Keenen W

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenHardcore", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@KeenenHardcore", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underl...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.2604628152304116, "month": 0.2604628152304116}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.226395445880378, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

KeenenW

1719829209432

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb

5

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…W/okdqy98gri.jpg

1697247005528

0

0.25

0.5

1719829206286

0

0.5000000000000002

634b1dm9sv

{"NO": 1506.9160452121785, "YES": 663.6069761001165}

0.6942640231943266

will-a-moderator-fix-a-resolution-b

742.7585504340999

Will a moderator fix a resolution before the end of 2024 ?

1738364340000

EvssjTog4GaSFVLrKBLh11LksCt1

cpmm-1

0

9.59663296625829

False

basic

public

1719813326579

Mr Kiwi

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A lot of questions with resolutions in our lifespan, or even at the end of the month are badly defined, nor have haphazardly resolution conditions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This gives a lot of leeway to moder...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.19426402319432656, "month": 0.19426402319432656}

0

{"creatorFee": 19.7052888146956, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MrKiwi

1719837136415

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTcvRWvh43rWCf2bkDlJhzsONGlYvANB1YgMfrKVlPag=s96-c

6

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…i/jrrsmz5ime.jpg

1708309854004

0

0.25

0.5

1719837133344

1719830000311

0

0.5762998793904207

zfi78oaapm

{"NO": 7755.156523914489, "YES": 11926.647958972228}

0.4693347768185364

will-the-sohu-ai-chip-ship-to-custo

2915

Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?

1750834740000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

2.8278961697332603

False

plus

public

1719813935549

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Within a year of announcement. June 25, 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sohu chip is an AI ASIC developed by Etched that is claiming 20x faster transformer inference than an Nvidia H100.", "type": "text"},...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.030665223181463586, "month": -0.030665223181463586}

0

{"creatorFee": 102.55620873103103, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

10000

ahalekelly

1720125277574

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

16

8

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/6igujl4j7t.jpg

1651185961528

0

0.25

0.5

1719935679866

1719864848338

0

aekihmdiwj

what-will-be-the-next-presidential

72

What will be the next presidential “barrier” to be broken?

2556172740000

4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719815827837

xander

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The individual must become president of the United States, by election or other means", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asian = 25% or more ancestry which originates from the Asian continent", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.091856126381274, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

110

xander

1719956511311

0

https://storage.googleap…Emb7UQvbGLL2.png

7

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "z9awdu6gg6", "prob": 0.7207951486579803, "text": "First woman president", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.16839287392809, "userId": "4iYiDku1GDOJCnsgEmb7UQvbGLL2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 15.559497288368389, "textFts": "'first':1 'presid':3 'woman':2", "contractId": "aekihmdiwj", "createdTime": 1719815827838, "p...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/t7kiea6w6a.jpg

1679133223529

0

0.25

1719848647577

False

0

0.5000000000000014

iqwtkwf4x0

{"NO": 1020.2040612204046, "YES": 980.1960588196101}

0

daily-coinflip-3krvtln18k

17628.3786918064

Daily coinflip

1719979140000

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

cpmm-1

0

9.570395453738037

True

basic

NO

public

1719817075523

Traveel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = heads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = tails", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Day 171)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 289.8785087012459, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719992262981

1000

Traveel

1719979140000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp75uQk9_bN2j7atj8Sgb_7Ud50XuAC1-rg4KHhh=s96-c

91

34

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…l/yb46aexuzk.jpg

1674441975928

0

0.25

0.5

False

1719968272367

1719992253910

0.51

gRmM27eQDEVTEjM1q6Yzc7abJT93

0

0.49999999999999983

diuaoui5dq

{"NO": 147.91522201611963, "YES": 67.60629408993628}

0.6863130173199601

will-i-tenshino-practice-meditation

160

Will I (TenShino) practice meditation every day in July?

1722549540000

zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719818406166

Punished Ten Shino

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm inconsistent when it comes to meditation. Sometimes I'll meditate for a week straight, often I meditate every other day, and once in a while I don't meditate for weeks. My streak record is 16 days.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0.06391147504093941, "week": 0.18631301731996008, "month": 0.18631301731996008}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.005636637089774, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

20

100

TenShino

1720169607564

0

https://firebasestorage.…bf5-dc271bcac725

3

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…o/of9md6zipx.jpg

1668962116383

0

0.25

0.5

1720169604504

1719818677677

0

3p170v2lld

what-topics-or-who-will-elon-musk-t-zvdamsxue7

4239.151216262229

What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before Veterans Day (EOD November 11th)? [ADD YOUR OWN]

1731441599000

Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719818558732

Lion

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whatever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Musk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline act...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 95.4671524822376, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

75

4200

Lion

1720247942341

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c

18

4

ANYONE

[{"id": "jv2f45vgqw", "prob": 0.2036320896562912, "text": "Taylor Swift", "index": 0, "poolNo": 50.56688870921208, "userId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 197.75786597244678, "textFts": "'swift':2 'taylor':1", "contractId": "3p170v2lld", "createdTime": 1719818558732, "probChanges": {"day"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/10fs0ycu3v.jpg

1691095902341

0

0.25

1720247939282

1719868736087

False

prob-desc

0

pa7qrvp6xa

what-will-be-true-in-the-formula-1

5934.132329426374

What will be true in the Formula 1 2024 Grand Prixs? (Great Britain Silverstone Next)

1720389540000

9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719819478927

Fedor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 1 market for bets on the Formula 1 2024 season. Questions have a prefix to indicate which grand prix they relate to, for example GB: is for the Great Britain Silverstone race happening 5-7th of July", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 141.3521335338904, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

734.7408494826544

1400

Fedor

1720236689985

0

https://firebasestorage.…d6d-1b2c6bbfbc21

21

4

ANYONE

[{"id": "l8uts5vnsb", "prob": 0.64, "text": "GB: Verstappen Wins", "index": 0, "poolNo": 133.33333333333331, "userId": "9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 75, "textFts": "'gb':1 'verstappen':2 'win':3", "contractId": "pa7qrvp6xa", "createdTime": 1719819478927, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/d5wvs1y8g2.jpg

1678129247577

0

0.25

1720236686933

False

alphabetical

0

0.5

n8qw692h1g

{"NO": 694.658502199301, "YES": 1439.5562666173128}

0.32548669063164504

set-and-get-my-burpee-goal-at-least-r7mc1kdbyc

550

Set and get my burpee goal at least 3 weeks this month?

1722398400000

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

9.591061887021645

False

public

1719820847499

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.17451330936835496, "month": -0.17451330936835496}

0

{"creatorFee": 15.977900997284928, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Charlie

1719878642444

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/lx6vtuxw7r.jpg

1648498239600

0

0.25

0.5

1719878637463

0

0.5

55n2qqch1c

{"NO": 74.4379811580356, "YES": 134.34002164526058}

0.3565413030038832

by-2035-will-assistant-be-primarily

333.61976265994406

By 2035, will "assistant" be primarily used to refer to AI assistants?

2082837540000

RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719822812115

Shaked Koplewitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it go the way of \"computer\" and \"calculator\"?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1434586969961168, "month": -0.1434586969961168}

0

{"creatorFee": 10.358383174680336, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

ShakedKoplewitz

1719958867405

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c

12

5

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…z/xzuccmjyez.jpg

1655740589463

0

0.25

0.5

1719958863940

0

0.14

ddklry9076

{"NO": 929.142970627184, "YES": 1570.5955500805558}

0.08784488252833142

will-sam-altmans-sister-annie-altma

575

Will "Sam Altman's sister, Annie Altman, claims Sam..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

9.953880837970088

False

public

1719822879930

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.052155117471668594, "month": -0.052155117471668594}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.404449919444278, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LessWrong

1719854095885

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/4s0azu2835.jpg

1706554674237

0

0.25

0.14

1719854092677

0

0.500000000000002

o28q5wwg69

{"NO": 4199.573983052361, "YES": 238.11939116575923}

1

will-bitcoin-go-below-58k-in-july-2

14353.178179549259

Will Bitcoin go below $58K in July 2024?

1720085424520

byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2

cpmm-1

0

9.90562036474847

True

basic

YES

public

1719822880604

PREDYX

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blockchain.info", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blockchain.info", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-40...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 183.31696758018361, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720085424520

1000

predyx_markets

1720085424520

0

https://firebasestorage.…b9b-f40c94e62b4e

26

5

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/k8jvvlymny.jpg

1704769503781

0

0.25

0.5

1720085212963

1720085388942

0.95

byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2

0

0.5000000000000003

zb5ojla7qg

{"NO": 480.8260943390953, "YES": 2079.7540145455664}

0.187780141176108

will-bitcoin-hit-72k-in-july-2024

3075.6680833397286

Will Bitcoin hit $72K in July 2024?

1722495540000

byEds8x9SMYgX0BuPMufdcpbSIH2

cpmm-1

0

9.655530152724234

False

basic

public

1719823006425

PREDYX

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://blockchain.info", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://blockchain.info", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-40...

BINARY

{"day": -0.004891263328097473, "week": -0.312219858823892, "month": -0.312219858823892}

0

{"creatorFee": 84.5925658191784, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

165.04777563054643

1000

predyx_markets

1720243596952

0

https://firebasestorage.…b9b-f40c94e62b4e

17

4

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/trd1tn9yf4.jpg

1704769503781

0

0.25

0.5

1720243593886

0

0.5000000000000001

3oser24atr

{"NO": 1245.179262462185, "YES": 803.0972167193252}

0.6079156183835875

will-alireza-firouzja-reach-top-5-i

652

Will Alireza Firouzja reach top 5 in the world again before 2026?

1767221940000

FrlI0G9SHwOCNYAfflbL4WrExEl1

cpmm-1

0

9.577813908213344

False

basic

public

1719824052109

Weezing

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alireza reached 2800 rating in 2021 as the youngest player ever and he was ranked #2. But since then he had been struggling and dropped as low as 2737 after Candidates. Recently he gained some points back and is currently at 2745 in live ratings (r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.10791561838358754, "month": 0.10791561838358754}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.120914588642023, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Weezing

1719944962406

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ac-b0dfa544f276

6

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/h4yd5zkk03.jpg

1700212225777

0

0.25

0.5

1719941381487

1719944960411

0

vtv9lwey77

how-many-members-will-be-announced

0

How many members will be announced to be part of SMNGG?

1735685940000

r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719824816132

Heya

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SM entertainment is set to debut a new girl group in 2024. It is likely the lineup will be announced during the month of July and they will debut in the last quarter of 2024. Regardless of its announcement/debut dates, this market refers to the nex...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

didnotask

1719824816274

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKD6YwDz0BXvA0P4THjL3EqrBk7OkI0eSA818c1pS1EvkU=s96-c

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "pr08qazuoc", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "3 - 5", "index": 0, "poolNo": 250, "userId": "r89bDPsrIWOjtXJwzLadhJK2GxX2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'3':1 '5':2", "contractId": "vtv9lwey77", "createdTime": 1719824816132, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…k/evjmgpor62.jpg

1707938205233

0

0.25

True

0

0.5

9pumr8cvoh

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-julia-eckertjuliaeckert10-end

0

Will Julia Eckert@JuliaEckert10 end up with a post in Asimov Press or Quanta Magazine by 2030?

1925009940000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719827077621

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1719827077621

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/pgq47og3t4.jpg

1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

0

0.5021437435323092

ez07523nwa

{"NO": 10158.374714977395, "YES": 9844.059259938453}

0.5100000000000001

will-a-republican-president-choose

20618.500604556455

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

2840255940000

SPzJ51CkHAUDH0kQ9XrPrVuPBfZ2

cpmm-1

0

2.4757509923080407

False

plus

public

1719827430419

Scott Alexander

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves positive if a future Republican president chooses a replacement for Sonia Sotomayor. For example, if Trump wins the coming election, Sotomayor leaves the court in 2026, and Trump chooses her replacement, it will resolve positive.", "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.01000000000000012, "month": 0.01000000000000012}

0

{"creatorFee": 605.6151627231568, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

100.00000000000001

10000

ScottAlexander

1720180859636

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwBTuc9HH2ol7466asmjnFco0Z6LioKnIYqdNEn=s96-c

59

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/f9pfaeacrq.jpg

1644789727818

0

0.25

0.5

1720180856399

1719862727126

0

0.5

0cf7ka67ta

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-kalki-movie-becomes-top-collec

0

Will KALKI movie becomes top collected movie

1720463340000

yoKy4YF3vtQJWhZcz9fXA3N3Ckm2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719827991431

Crazy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "KALKI 2898 AD is a film directed by nag ashwin ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Crazy

1719827991471

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKtZQoi9PtHiSgzJpuu8CPq6lYM_5KhQCN25OGKO4PdVZI_tA=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/k23nz8mv6p.jpg

1719827863332

0

0.25

0.5

0

0.5

4kfh9k1yde

{"NO": 91.17673204000674, "YES": 109.67710485184068}

0.45394568234761745

will-the-top-player-in-aoe2-lose-ag

10

Will the top player in AoE2 lose against an AOE2 AI by EOY 2026? (must be at least 3 games)

1798779540000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719828910617

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.04605431765238255, "month": -0.04605431765238255}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.32289514815931325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

StochasticParrot

1719846323557

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/aedkbtdxfo.jpg

1650319241876

0

0.25

0.5

1719846320302

0

0.1

gt3pyi6927

{"NO": 1122.7758488179238, "YES": 352.66506407979335}

0.2613074680258391

will-i-encounter-issue-number-2-whe-u1w95ps8sc

130

Will I encounter Issue Number 2 when I resolve this market?

1722409260000

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

10.084914811074064

False

public

1719831697333

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market used for internal purposes. You are welcome to bet, but context may remain limited. The goal is for the probabilities of these weekly markets to reach close to zero. Additional info: This market is reliability...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.1613074680258391, "month": 0.1613074680258391}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.224151182076243, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Charlie

1719878485126

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/3aqib0wavp.jpg

1648498239600

0

0.25

0.1

1719878481790

0

fbn3nw841

are-you-optimistic-about-how-things

0

Are you optimistic about how things will be post-AGI?

1720439940000

OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133

none

0

1000000

False

public

1719833226685

jim

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

jim

1719850136252

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f

15

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…m/2lcxpys4bi.jpg

1690863320225

0

0.25

1719850135025

0

0.5000000000000002

acextrgrlp

{"NO": 1441.1531769878661, "YES": 693.8887662795757}

0.6749999369016346

will-i-gain-a-new-close-friend-with

743

Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?

1878238740000

wNkuCd4vjqOgiwBIXCVPVHRneI63

cpmm-1

0

9.591188979060913

False

basic

public

1719833724084

Vanessa Kosoy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Close friend\" is defined as someone for whom:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both of us feel comfortable sharing intimat...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.17499993690163462, "month": 0.17499993690163462}

0

{"creatorFee": 20.797585305627965, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

VanessaKosoy

1719931060974

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte_ALTuE-hy2f-vUSbXP-z4Ye8ZmPMTm1_h-6L7wCd1Mg=s96-c

16

11

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/rkyrsxf782.jpg

1693113119174

0

0.25

0.5

1719931057730

1719929063017

0

0.49999999999999983

7qclgzty0q

{"NO": 3663.3923585923167, "YES": 272.97103398017066}

1

shot-fuse-will-the-trump-immunity-c

2700

[short fuse] Will the Trump immunity case be the last case decided this term?

1719845470911

jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32

cpmm-1

0

9.850508749020634

True

basic

YES

public

1719839411184

Hyperlincoln

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Trump v. U.S., the presidential immunity case, be the very last case decided in this term?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 36.607641407683076, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719845470911

1000

Hyperlincoln

1719846570227

0

https://firebasestorage.…f8f-d22d2ae6d687

3

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/ln4qhtk5wh.jpg

1690992837377

0

0.25

0.5

False

1719844106563

0.93

jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32

0

0.5000000000000003

e1qq17aetg

{"NO": 209.38131022496137, "YES": 4775.975462784053}

0

will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal-2u4gnjta5a

43696.336928649696

Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal during Euro 2024?

1720215806239

0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2

cpmm-1

0

9.896064110329082

True

basic

NO

public

1719840953149

Sindre

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He has yet to score a goal during the European Cup. Will he end up goalless or will he score?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if he scores according to ", "type": "text"}, {"t...

BINARY

{"day": -0.3808675848669072, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 831.9039035664541, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

4909.368820706499

1720215806239

1000

Sindre

1720215809436

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI7S8dzmYSGKjH1PuSnjsb_GGjLpRI4xSBiy5Nm67glFoQ=s96-c

116

19

0.13333333333333333

1697226133927

0

0.25

0.5

1720215806016

1719870540468

0.05

0OBPfjOxv2hjgRJFBvRoHNdLFuI2

0

0.5000000000000001

fvxgmn0qe9

{"NO": 229.12878474779194, "YES": 43.64357804719853}

0.8399999999999999

will-the-mayor-of-paris-anne-hidalg

329.77873249076987

Will Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo publicly swim in the Seine before the Olympics open?

1722052740000

9GvIXLtI42XrGhWIeT3h9L6NIpA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719845012030

Michael

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Open water events for the Paris 2024 games will be held in the Seine. After concerns about water quality, the Mayor of Paris promised to swim in the Seine herself. However, the date for her swim has been ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "pushed back", ...

BINARY

{"day": -0.02000000000000013, "week": 0.33999999999999986, "month": 0.33999999999999986}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.10474477410422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

12.323883846938449

100

burkh4rt

1720213817220

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKv31Whhbh-4wrvOPbGM9zLTlznsRJp_8zkd0nrodHyg6za=s96-c

7

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/7vhq0ag301.jpg

1706719887452

0

0.25

0.5

1720213814106

0

0.5

2b26rn6qg1

{"NO": 946.6503322206687, "YES": 1056.3562552755743}

0.4726146874054873

will-bitcoin-hit-66000-in-july-2024

1125.4755065103411

Will Bitcoin hit 66,000 in July 2024

1722488340000

IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92

cpmm-1

0

8.778113269857466

False

basic

public

1719846897817

Andrew

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves yes if Bitcoin hits 66,000 in the month of July 2024 ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "coindesk.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...

BINARY

{"day": -0.04993586164399244, "week": -0.027385312594512712, "month": -0.027385312594512712}

0

{"creatorFee": 36.25947976640375, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

96.01539723323708

1000

AndrewCrosse

1720213317554

0

https://firebasestorage.…f22-3dec558fe261

12

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/bvloymram6.jpg

1709841963600

0

0.25

0.5

1720213313774

0

yqfi6cu8r1

what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-yvfe69r47f

8710.159810235147

What will be the maximum strength of Hurricane Beryl after entering the Gulf of Mexico?

1720021500000

FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719848168188

Savior of Plant

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 136.84482726478996, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SaviorofPlant

1720017875223

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c

21

9

DISABLED

[{"id": "igmflm0k6c", "prob": 0.06447646704346074, "text": "Beryl dissipates or does not enter the GoM", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.588010907608336, "userId": "FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 777.5371013211219, "textFts": "'beryl':1 'dissip':2 'enter':6 'gom':8", "contractId": "yqfi6cu8r1", "c...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/gnob96jume.jpg

1698371327350

0

0.25

1720017872007

1720016578943

True

0

fa8sptpidw

which-parties-will-gain-in-vote-sha

10

Which parties will gain in vote share in the 2027 Swiss Federal Election?

1824933540000

FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719848513605

Yann

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.29647124726312774, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Yann

1719852759338

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "408gziv7ye", "prob": 0.6250404508790229, "text": "SVP/UDC (Far Right; populist anti-immigrant)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 21.518431043035104, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 12.90883044503779, "textFts": "'anti':6 'anti-immigr':5 'far':2 'immigr':7 'populist':4 'right':3 'sv...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/2sn7dmujx7.jpg

1719606448794

0

0.25

1719851306071

False

0

kqhzexky7i

how-much-usd-trading-volume-will-po

2928.4832680335294

How much USD trading volume will Polymarket generate in July? $111M in June.

1722571140000

iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719848589421

Niko

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Polymarket had a yuge June, with over $111M in trading volume, driven largely off of trading in election markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/economics/polymarket-surpasses-100m-june-trading-volume-drive...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 42.070026315547366, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

161.39062356596494

2000

Moscow25

1720206928646

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad

10

4

DISABLED

[{"id": "13a684nme8", "prob": 0.049664852772201076, "text": "Under $100M", "index": 0, "poolNo": 95.29016231133419, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1823.373781955324, "textFts": "'100m':2", "contractId": "kqhzexky7i", "createdTime": 1719848589421, "probChanges": {"day": 0.00538948...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5/9f56pjoibs.jpg

1715368331856

0

0.25

1720206924924

1720076417389

True

0

2fi8emwlwp

euro-2024-prop-questions-france-vs

1217.7257215619318

Euro 2024 prop questions France vs Belgium

1719961140000

cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719848605450

Jemima Bowman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 9.239492838815453, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

110

JemimaBowman

1719919581031

0

https://storage.googleap…Zu6TDtF2eg72.png

11

ANYONE

[{"id": "w67jjrwx2b", "prob": 0.01000000000000007, "text": "Mbappe to score", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1167086836213542, "userId": "cIiwfryOGmXQGwMaZu6TDtF2eg72", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.55415967851329, "textFts": "'mbapp':1 'score':3", "contractId": "2fi8emwlwp", "createdTime": 1719848605450, "probChanges": {"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/d077ruqa4r.jpg

1719677158549

0

0.25

1719904570056

1719919578720

False

0

sj7pawxbgt

what-was-the-most-dramatic-event-on-gdbdgobyi4

0

What was the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024?

1720072740000

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

none

0

1000000

True

public

1719848630841

Gabrielle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What was the most dramatic event on Manifold of June 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720072740136

Gabrielle

1719854191709

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c

29

0

0.13333333333333333

1641356493109

0

0.25

1719854190419

["y3yg4o0635"]

0

wqs4uk9wkp

how-many-riders-will-wear-the-yello-7xhzxf86v5

7619.712996930339

How many riders will wear the yellow jersey in the 2024 Tour de France?

1721624340000

hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719848706651

Eliza

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time 5 riders wore the yellow ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 88.53851383702613, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

950.983226108681

1000

Eliza

1720213048124

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c

16

5

DISABLED

[{"id": "86r111csp7", "prob": 0.60327748177008, "text": "3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 251.71524004091776, "userId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 165.53096530783586, "textFts": "'3':1", "contractId": "wqs4uk9wkp", "createdTime": 1719848706651, "probChanges": {"day": 0.21654230760441534, "wee...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…a/odehk411jp.jpg

1680816506031

0

0.25

1720213044255

1719960852789

True

alphabetical

0

m3wi5fm1v2

what-will-be-total-betting-handle-o

1800.491960197102

What will be total betting handle on Polymarket for main Presidential Election market by end of July? Starting $205M.

1722571140000

iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719851113798

Niko

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has taken a year to get to $205M in betting on the main Polymarket Presidential Election futures market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024", "type": "text", "marks...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 18.33266004653339, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2000

Moscow25

1720076948657

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad

3

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "2q0l2boivj", "prob": 0.02639526710724949, "text": "$200M to $250M (~$50M in July)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.55095343690274, "userId": "iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1975.257969742924, "textFts": "'200m':1 '250m':3 '50m':4 'juli':6", "contractId": "m3wi5fm1v2", "createdTime": 1719...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5/yyw23iex8x.jpg

1715368331856

0

0.25

1720076945514

1720076752788

True

0

evy3lumqil

how-much-will-deadpool-wolverine-20

7642.157788588018

How much will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?

1721973600000

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

7.239853402547027

False

plus

public

1719851312083

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo for \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"hre...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 101.3991764137186, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

10000

Ziddletwix

1720132779970

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

28

3

ANYONE

[{"id": "0i8zbngob5", "prob": 0.9607898740573138, "text": ">$155 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4083.8691553572644, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 166.6639379105879, "textFts": "'155':1 'million':2", "contractId": "evy3lumqil", "createdTime": 1719851312083, "probChanges": {"day"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/l3v550fimd.jpg

1680369520541

0

0.25

1720132776783

1719959978755

False

old

0

vmjqd181mr

which-super-smash-bros-ultimate-cha-ia0ijiesl1

0

Which Super Smash Bros Ultimate character do you most commonly play as?

1722484740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1719851500492

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved by poll after market close", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 89 characters in Smash Bros Ultimate", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

strutheo

1719851531074

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

6

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…o/jthn7zsr6e.jpg

1700846926650

0

0.25

1719851529741

0

0.5000000000000003

nvd17j1hkh

{"NO": 9295.351231011473, "YES": 107.58065780922516}

0.988558817709067

will-biden-give-a-nationallytelevis

9285.975184970304

Will Biden give a nationally-televised interview or town hall in July?

1722495540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.888466440673447

False

basic

public

1719852366923

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0.046487206889688104, "week": 0.48855881770906695, "month": 0.48855881770906695}

0

{"creatorFee": 67.85667137281496, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

5641.675905371868

1000

DismalScientist

1720221846203

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

19

6

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/1l059hysqi.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

0.5

1720221843115

1719951403681

0

0.5000000000000003

zzy3958flx

{"NO": 442.0272707895167, "YES": 2262.3038578906544}

0.16345160771981548

will-biden-fire-a-senior-member-of

2001.3590531675868

Will Biden fire a senior member of his campaign staff this week?

1720508340000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.676808850640715

False

basic

public

1719852496956

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to credible media reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivated by this CNN article: \"Biden’s family encourages him to stay in the race as they discuss whether top adv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.3365483922801845, "month": -0.3365483922801845}

0

{"creatorFee": 41.19445647286125, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DismalScientist

1719955912538

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

24

14

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/6luv5nrsxb.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

0.5

1719955909230

0

8o0rnayubg

on-a-hypothetical-2024-democratic-t

150

On a hypothetical 2024 Democratic ticket for President, which Prez+VP combo would you be most excited to vote for?

1724039940000

WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719852964642

Luke

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pairings are NOT in particular order (e.g. Whitmer + Newsom = Newsom + Whitmer)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to comment additional pairings. I’ll add any that get significant trac...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.363137664767422, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

SpaceboyLuke

1720002886014

0

https://firebasestorage.…ec5-24f3180c7564

3

2

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "rv658eiusx", "prob": 0.6585214682159815, "text": "Newsom + Whitmer", "index": 0, "poolNo": 138.86834706341347, "userId": "WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 72.01065045754132, "textFts": "'newsom':1 'whitmer':2", "contractId": "8o0rnayubg", "createdTime": 1719852964642, "probChanges": ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/ne9fc1cyov.jpg

1698196769336

0

0.25

1720002882050

False

0

0.5000000000000006

1jr14uvjh6

{"NO": 1105.8503889951598, "YES": 904.2814561096802}

0.5501382367968428

will-twisters-2024-have-a-rotten-to

1326.5647438229264

Will "Twisters" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 75%? ("Certified Fresh")

1722063540000

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-1

0

9.520849485679694

False

basic

public

1719855171821

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Twisters\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/twisters", "class": "break-anywhere hover:...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.05013823679684282, "month": 0.05013823679684282}

0

{"creatorFee": 42.52562839043218, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ziddletwix

1720107213232

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

4

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/rjhn2t8w9d.jpg

1680369520541

0

0.25

0.5

1720107210176

0

0.5

lg0d1mcqzp

{"NO": 63.12430413774139, "YES": 158.41758791002815}

0.2849316829167927

will-djokovic-announce-retirement-i

60

Will Djokovic announce retirement in 2025?

1767243540000

pGpHCp39xRWg7ovlibnuwwUbLVx2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719856163210

Computer 1

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.21506831708320728, "month": -0.21506831708320728}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5824120899718697, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Computer1

1719856186526

0

https://storage.googleap…ibnuwwUbLVx2.png

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1/o7cs8gzvcy.jpg

1714420625421

0

0.25

0.5

1719856183362

0

0.5000000000000001

tz7lazt3ut

{"NO": 804.8728868088463, "YES": 1242.432210587677}

0.39313773400572855

will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-yll6ur2ywn

250

Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q3 2024?

1727765940000

GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1

cpmm-1

0

9.577663663694121

False

basic

public

1719857207693

cshunter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada raises interest rates in Q3 2024 (July, August, September). The current \"target for the overnight rate\" is 4.75%, having been cut by 0.25% in Q2. Past interest rate decisions are made available ", "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.10686226599427145, "month": -0.10686226599427145}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.56778941232296, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

cash

1719876946053

0

https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…h/21z4tv895k.jpg

1669744545591

0

0.25

0.5

1719876942909

0

0.5000000000000001

pp220wmt3u

{"NO": 1291.1233752950725, "YES": 774.519321030386}

0.6250468087205174

will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-interes

300

Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in Q3 2024?

1727765940000

GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1

cpmm-1

0

9.58049806690273

False

basic

public

1719857324389

cshunter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in Q3 2024 (July, August, September). The current \"target for the overnight rate\" is 4.75%, having been cut by 0.25% in Q2. Past interest rate decisions are made available ", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0.0181845427262457, "week": 0.12504680872051743, "month": 0.12504680872051743}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.876624704927524, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1000

cash

1720190933006

0

https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e

2

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…h/x6ulh798ka.jpg

1669744545591

0

0.25

0.5

1720190929894

0

0.5000000000000021

2jaarr7sb2

{"NO": 238.04761428474214, "YES": 42.00840252084307}

1

will-spain-beat-germany-in-the-euro

2668.2707697938295

Will Spain Beat Germany in the euros Cup

1720205400000

dHJuqFF5UZUCIGzKtJgEdA2EXTX2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1719857513596

Darkmoon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0.449564140395013, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 42.409127821476126, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

2079.6742497659407

1720205426472

100

Darkmoonnjsf

1720205400000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLtyK9JxFJhGfgkx9V1wCxt-dEYDCgRP-CdjvXTo5q5EuBC-w=s96-c

20

13

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…f/g07y82y0e0.jpg

1719734940566

0

0.25

0.5

1720205372089

0.85

dHJuqFF5UZUCIGzKtJgEdA2EXTX2

0

0.5000000000000002

4ivng9290d

{"NO": 1109.1992987203741, "YES": 901.55123714345}

0.5516344663033296

will-a-tour-de-france-race-be-disru

554

Will a Tour de France race be disrupted by civil protests?

1721707140000

iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122

cpmm-1

0

9.572001570892366

False

basic

public

1719857652524

Niko

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Tour de France is underway.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepnewz.com/africa/biniam-girmay-makes-history-on-monday-first-black-african-to-win-tour-de-france", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.051634466303329574, "month": 0.051634466303329574}

0

{"creatorFee": 18.134761042001468, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Moscow25

1720088803896

0

https://firebasestorage.…c7e-93270a85b3ad

12

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…5/gslmhsd5rx.jpg

1715368331856

0

0.25

0.5

1720088800819

1719860038767

0

zrl5kqwtjh

switzerland-vs-england-prop-bets-eu

33.850006797157675

Switzerland vs England prop bets Euro 2024

1720389540000

FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719858697245

Yann

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9023657252019325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

2

110

Yann

1720238259274

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIVzNT5HGfEk-ilEjVg2uSpyC9rZuqOuQapIHzounvKMzMPfEH_=s96-c

3

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "e633bqnvzd", "prob": 0.5910154977681323, "text": "England wins", "index": 0, "poolNo": 12.021149793969958, "userId": "FwzKrpdyOxfFeo31FLzSxw5edJI2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.318671817080423, "textFts": "'england':1 'win':2", "contractId": "zrl5kqwtjh", "createdTime": 1719858697245, "probChanges": {"day":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/x5m3qp0jim.jpg

1719606448794

0

0.25

1720238256236

False

0

0.5000000000000001

x9fxl6kobf

{"NO": 654.6536707079777, "YES": 1527.5252316519482}

0.30000000000000004

will-boeing-plead-guilty-to-crimina

1296.984358493172

Will Boeing plead guilty to criminal fraud rather than face trial?

1720504740000

4riEolq08YSVMg6GArRX7r4u5wk1

cpmm-1

0

9.59841816216813

False

basic

public

1719858808926

Tracy Harms

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.19999999999999996, "month": -0.19999999999999996}

0

{"creatorFee": 33.68567931932128, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

TracyHarms

1719950562013

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKwX8bEpVTyS_SFiZjatythaw9ZQG6fsp6PuvnJiZdJOFtEaVXw=s96-c

15

12

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/haxe2x0kl3.jpg

1712606292629

0

0.25

0.5

1719950558727

1719870006410

0

iwybeocmn4

what-scenes-or-cameos-will-happen-i

2666.936195284451

What scenes or cameos will happen in 'Deadpool & Wolverine'?

1722484740000

jY8DXE2MghZCBSgP0cdMvzYSZsg1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719859787500

Noel Sunny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hi, didn't see any questions about the film scenes. Wanted to have some fun and try this out. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 46.07746886648573, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NoelSunny

1719997219145

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ4bycpNzilSpst8OWrvLReqIt3zOVQDCR0uVTWLZFuJlTn=s96-c

20

6

ANYONE

[{"id": "p93mls003t", "prob": 0.52, "text": "A parody of Avenger's endgame portal scene happens", "index": 0, "poolNo": 104.0832999733067, "userId": "jY8DXE2MghZCBSgP0cdMvzYSZsg1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 96.07689228305236, "textFts": "'aveng':4 'endgam':6 'happen':9 'parodi':2 'portal':7 'scene':8", "contractId":...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/1me94tpc8m.jpg

1700942106063

0

0.25

1719997215931

False

0

dcqfxzv0wp

demar-derozan-2024-free-agency-deci

146.9102589150859

DeMar DeRozan 2024 Free Agency Decision

1720501140000

BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719862214667

Chinmay The Math Guy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.743488464217442, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

35

120

ChinmayTheMathGuy

1720209783361

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZq896I_Ax8LGfe5H_KMzO98z8XRF1EV3Jg9qYo=s96-c

2

ANYONE

[{"id": "wc1mwx3vg4", "prob": 0.028686634759522607, "text": "Bulls", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.01487182860312, "userId": "BYGxdu40OjPyDJ3PhIRm0EKY1yc2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 169.80074773229427, "textFts": "'bull':1", "contractId": "dcqfxzv0wp", "createdTime": 1719862214667, "probChanges": {"day": -0.1837286710671...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/gomj5hznz6.jpg

1677787177859

0

0.25

1720209780237

True

0

0.5

ne7latw17k

{"NO": 647.2685546565525, "YES": 1544.953779703714}

0.29525680151663913

will-trump-repeatedly-raise-concern

1030

Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?

1767254340000

GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1

cpmm-1

0

9.599955129540682

False

basic

public

1719862840976

cshunter

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump has started talking about artificial intelligence, recently saying in", "type": "text"}, {"text": " an interview with Jake Paul", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?t=2989", "clas...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.20474319848336087, "month": -0.20474319848336087}

0

{"creatorFee": 29.006306680154427, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

cash

1719954622569

0

https://firebasestorage.…8e4-4df3e286b14e

16

14

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…h/vf2y61xi0e.jpg

1669744545591

0

0.25

0.5

1719954619500

1719893817448

0

tp9sggfbas

ifwhen-a-nation-in-each-geopolitica

42.87631502260721

If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?

4102531140000

a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719863049629

The All Memeing Eye ♠️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Communist here means >50% of the population lives under a government that openly intends to immediately establish a political system with completely worker-controlled industry and decentralised planned economy, regardless of the governmental and so...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1593320463826418, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

TheAllMemeingEye

1719928143891

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c

2

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "0jxzssutpu", "prob": 0.26105387763136456, "text": "The US", "color": "#2196f3", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.943724718111353, "userId": "a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 16.824466936580386, "textFts": "'us':2", "contractId": "tp9sggfbas", "createdTime": 1719863049629, "probChanges": {"day...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/ntm1fsczk0.jpg

1704035290346

0

0.25

1719912202933

1719928142006

False

old

0

0.5000000000000003

yh9gl5qtom

{"NO": 315.8162869200029, "YES": 3166.3978123246784}

0.09069410378543531

will-a-supreme-court-justice-be-imp

3607.537395911425

Will a Supreme Court justice be impeached this year?

1735718340000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.779525194671713

False

basic

public

1719863969466

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AOC vows to file articles of impeachment:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4750034-ocasio-cortez-impeachment-articles-supreme-court-justices-trump-immunity/", "type": "text", "marks...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.4093058962145647, "month": -0.4093058962145647}

0

{"creatorFee": 45.65514077563881, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DismalScientist

1720000735122

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

32

7

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/7k0oram4ca.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

0.5

1720000732047

1719908139714

0

0.5000000000000014

r26dh1kkbf

{"NO": 994.9874371066213, "YES": 10.050378152592202}

1

will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-wl87kv8y7

1484.3120987249843

Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on July 2 than it closed on July 1?

1719950497884

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

YES

public

1719864311383

Jim Fix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.5, "month": 0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 16.855587950586564, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719950497884

100

JimFix

1719950497884

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKby3m-W4SFKUQ-LGikDwd5HxXNONtBgiWy97ne8-tQ=s96-c

7

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/i9v60q2p6c.jpg

1696775041650

0

0.25

0.5

1719947995728

0.99

Ag5nFFSKQAMUyEdcfmon8iy31O12

0

nib3q210ll

which-chatgpt-version-has-performed

0

Which ChatGPT version has performed best in your experience?

1720475940000

cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2

none

0

1000000

False

public

1719867011108

lukres

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Either I am going crazy/victim to cognitive biases or 4o is even more shit than 4 has been for some time, while 4 was excellent at the beginning.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I refer to the...

POLL

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

lukres

1719904092820

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2

7

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/u3vtqy13jh.jpg

1690889308481

0

0.25

1719904091802

0

am3za87tpn

who-will-win-stage-3-at-the-2024-to

3132.383595332758

Who will win stage 4 at the 2024 Tour de France?

1719932582444

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

foxh2tlibp

public

1719867430521

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First HC climb of the Tour: Col du Galibier, nobody from the GC can play possum anymore.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 11.642128564230594, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719932582444

100

egroj

1719934639268

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

9

ANYONE

[{"id": "foxh2tlibp", "prob": 0.9992745328716809, "text": "Tadej Pogacar", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1071.378476087981, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 0.7778141449846387, "textFts": "'pogacar':2 'tadej':1", "contractId": "am3za87tpn", "resolverId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "cr...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…j/vmxa4xbvr5.jpg

1655411946178

0

0.25

1719932568895

1719934635719

{"foxh2tlibp": 100}

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

True

0

321piti3lt

will-we-get-silksong-news-in-the-fo

150

Will we get silksong news in the following months?

1751342340000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719867951110

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Daily Silksong News reports at least one YES news day that month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the game released before the first day of that month, then it resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 4.107485652903775, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1200

Ibozz91

1719868130435

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

1

DISABLED

[{"id": "034u0aoapy", "prob": 0.31161262424555886, "text": "July 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.28078860872532, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 148.63083811569874, "textFts": "'2024':2 'juli':1", "contractId": "321piti3lt", "createdTime": 1719867951110, "probChanges": {"day": 0, ...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…1/mxzu9gfh2a.jpg

1656270007406

0

0.25

1719868125404

False

0

dyz3tnf6un

what-will-be-the-next-apple-vr-head

103.96461312932945

What will be the next Apple VR headset's starting price?

1798757940000

sOygFD0zhCUKoqpiguVVGHnUFAQ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719868131578

Supercyfra4

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "lowest ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "price one can buy the next Apple headset (after the original Apple Vision Pro) from their official website ", "type": "tex...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 3.044281690499112, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

Supercyfra4

1719895338835

0

https://firebasestorage.…68f-b71dc5509a2a

5

DISABLED

[{"id": "tr2mo3g6zl", "prob": 0.04226017453435808, "text": "$0-$499.99", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.7133585089914836, "userId": "sOygFD0zhCUKoqpiguVVGHnUFAQ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 84.15562333755706, "textFts": "'0':1 '499.99':2", "contractId": "dyz3tnf6un", "createdTime": 1719868131578, "probChanges": {"day": -0....

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…4/jloiofc67x.jpg

1691083492496

0

0.25

1719895335649

True

0

0.5000000000000002

d4f7aribpy

{"NO": 392.12870872691803, "YES": 2550.1830846473704}

0.13327231655392274

will-a-presidential-age-limit-amend

1758.2715190057954

Will a presidential age limit amendment be introduced in the US Congress before 2030?

1893409200000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.711549022826844

False

basic

public

1719869380541

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if presidential age limit amendment introduced on the floor of the US Congress before 2030. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"In the House, a bill is introd...

BINARY

{"day": -0.004596615097823831, "week": -0.36672768344607726, "month": -0.36672768344607726}

0

{"creatorFee": 31.84949649318657, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1000

DismalScientist

1720240431381

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

17

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…t/g2cwlwv3lb.jpg

1668408783448

0

0.25

0.5

1720240428264

1719953075678

0

0.14

ot6fxz4he8

{"NO": 1000, "YES": 1000}

0.14

will-openai-api-base-models-are-not

0

Will "OpenAI API base models are not sycophantic, a..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

1738368000000

h2dutemV8qWoHLjhp9VXerhlLL13

cpmm-1

0

9.894527931239049

False

public

1719869406997

Less Wrong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LessWrong

1719869407851

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKH1Ct5papO0Deh_khGs7uNUNGfjK6aQWr4LE-chfD1Cg=s96-c

0

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…g/7bcy4eob8l.jpg

1706554674237

0

0.25

0.14

0

0.49999999999999994

i3nsy188b1

{"NO": 124.2432210587677, "YES": 80.48728868088463}

0.6068622659942715

will-the-nyc-subway-still-report-an-fg1sjlp340

25

Will the NYC subway still report an On-time Performance of >=80% at the end of October 2024? (overall 12-month average)

1730782740000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719869538543

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://metrics.mta.info/?subway/operationalmetrics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://metrics.mta.info/?subway/operationalmetrics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline h...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.10686226599427151, "month": 0.10686226599427151}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7567789412322955, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

strutheo

1719925036025

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…o/ufzxh8hko9.jpg

1700846926650

0

0.25

0.5

1719925032939

0

0.6658478060417315

lax01or72h

{"NO": 1749.616983337648, "YES": 745.6464632975459}

0.8238082873833825

will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p-gsxkukg581

1106.928526624594

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of September?

1725249540000

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

cpmm-1

0

9.691891182016793

False

basic

public

1719870175079

chris (strutheo)

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "538 polling average ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/", "class": "break-anywh...

BINARY

{"day": 0.006328037118635055, "week": 0.3238082873833825, "month": 0.3238082873833825}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.97610972849425, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1000

strutheo

1720179297218

0

https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d

16

2

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…o/rexty1mm36.jpg

1700846926650

0

0.25

0.5

1720179294071

1720048560446

0

rdotdpj978

what-will-trumps-margin-be-in-the-n

10730.97491083918

What will Trump/Biden's margin be in the next NYT/Siena poll?

1720031823190

Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

d7votrwgk3

public

1719870242180

Eric Neyman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Next NYT/Siena poll\": the next national Biden vs. Trump poll with pollster \"The New York Times/Siena College\" to appear on The FiveThirtyEight website.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mul...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 113.84638519936841, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720031823190

1000

EricNeyman

1720031823190

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiPFPOiz1zGjPpuk7iqSJxdcLSra5RL3n0RXK2q=s96-c

18

6

DISABLED

[{"id": "imp21d4emg", "prob": 0.0012865764703121733, "text": "Trump +8 or more", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.7829457404809546, "userId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 5265.306119307592, "textFts": "'+8':2 'trump':1", "contractId": "rdotdpj978", "resolverId": "Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2", "c...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…n/qhor31jzb2.jpg

1642222980375

0

0.25

1720031794191

1720028238464

{"d7votrwgk3": 100}

Cy0ob0rBI1ZmToC7cnVKNRHiYgk2

True

0

0.5000000000000001

ercutl1336

{"NO": 29.50333233177374, "YES": 338.9447635116952}

0.08007459575610865

will-manifold-refund-any-of-tslabul

290

Will Manifold refund any of TSLABull's mana purchases?

1727765940000

Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719870316155

nikki

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any amount counts. Refund must be in cash or equivalent. No mana refunds.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if none by close date.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.026677272858468506, "week": -0.41992540424389135, "month": -0.41992540424389135}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.093501007781721, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

100

nikki

1720194033479

0

https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970

10

1

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…i/2yx7d574nr.jpg

1678327601414

0

0.25

0.5

1720194030364

1719896757040

0

0.49999999999999994

nm3d4bo7yp

{"NO": 100.50378152592111, "YES": 9949.874371066198}

0

will-the-usa-win-todays-mens-footba

8998.246567337816

Will the USA win today's men's football/soccer match against Uraguay on July 1?

1719982740000

pAI0Ru1Xu5aKSm6InG4g9cotgu33

cpmm-1

0

9.849721441923073

True

basic

NO

public

1719870929801

Brad Booker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 48.37219627161562, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720021015519

1000

BradBooker

1719982740000

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte09insW_eXhwgxbFMMKj1x0RIzJAq7w9EJqW9Wx7-i=s96-c

10

5

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…r/ljuk45zx8u.jpg

1691005781192

0

0.25

0.5

1719981711048

1720015148021

0.01

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

0

ers8ro263m

how-will-joe-biden-perform-making-h

0

How will Joe Biden perform making his "statement on Supreme Court's immunity ruling" on July 1st?

1719872656611

d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1719872134728

Bence

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Other\" option cannot resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will resolve based on media reporting by New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, New Yorker, and similar left...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719872656611

1000

bence

1719872656611

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY6q8sP8ydlU9daTxBnT6rxi4S_cnrdBUjDR2INFbY=s96-c

0

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "7cvxreucqk", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Good - media says 'concerns calmed' by this appearance", "index": 0, "poolNo": 166.66666666666666, "userId": "d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 500, "textFts": "'appear':8 'calm':5 'concern':4 'good':1 'media':2 'say':3", "contractId": "ers8ro263m",...

0.13333333333333333

1677945553337

0

0.25

hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2

True

0

0.5000000000000008

tj13l0rpoj

{"NO": 136.51914918836195, "YES": 7324.979725886316}

0

will-joe-biden-tank-his-statement-o

13218.475331141046

Will Joe Biden tank his "statement on Supreme Court's immunity ruling" on July 1st?

1720049763976

d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2

cpmm-1

0

9.867551884546945

True

basic

NO

public

1719872933476

Bence

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if either", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least one of New York Times, Wall Street J...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 78.30423765971855, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720049763976

1000

bence

1720049763976

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY6q8sP8ydlU9daTxBnT6rxi4S_cnrdBUjDR2INFbY=s96-c

28

6

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…e/lhl89dwb3e.jpg

1677945553337

0

0.25

0.5

1720038705821

1719910289301

0.02

d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2

0

a6rbka16be

after-stage-5-of-the-2024-tour-de-f

4124.788404699749

After Stage 5 of the 2024 Tour de France, who will wear the Maillot Jaune?

1720018740000

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

tp0cbvm35o

public

1719873458601

Stuart Slagle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved with verified results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.letour.fr/en/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:unde...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 24.45936125288109, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720021302897

1100

ovals

1720018740000

0

https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717

11

ANYONE

[{"id": "tp0cbvm35o", "prob": 0.9500568213448661, "text": "Tadej Pogacar", "index": 0, "poolNo": 893.2073029031026, "userId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 46.954677765285815, "textFts": "'pogacar':2 'tadej':1", "contractId": "a6rbka16be", "resolverId": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "cr...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…s/vbkgdjqoxn.jpg

1697477345360

0

0.25

1720008626573

1720009239237

{"tp0cbvm35o": 100}

JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1

True

0

0hqgfrjjmm

how-much-will-twisters-2024-gross-d

3267.0309748775926

How much will "Twisters" (2024) gross during its domestic opening weekend?

1721372340000

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719876455929

Ziddletwix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on", "type": "text"}, {"text": " BoxOfficeMojo for \"Twisters\" (2024).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 33.50048221005879, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ziddletwix

1719928444363

0

https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96

5

ANYONE

[{"id": "v0oe8kxziu", "prob": 0.9576502081696147, "text": ">$50 million", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1188.824707261236, "userId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 52.57293158382009, "textFts": "'50':1 'million':2", "contractId": "0hqgfrjjmm", "createdTime": 1719876455929, "probChanges": {"day": 0...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…x/vmgt79ygbe.jpg

1680369520541

0

0.25

1719928441284

False

old

0

0.4999999999999994

zai1ck9fg6

{"NO": 102.27762349545728, "YES": 9777.309697115064}

0

will-portugal-beat-france-euro-2024

19468.9394341223

Will Portugal beat France? | Euro 2024

1720219854606

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

cpmm-1

0

9.850686389638089

True

basic

NO

public

1719876823480

The Official

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.4107738393760015, "week": -0.5, "month": -0.5}

0

{"creatorFee": 268.3426757639121, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

14198.913329644358

1720219854606

1000

10thOfficial

1720219854606

0

https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96

53

27

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…l/zzbkqhzdw2.jpg

1682437068858

0

0.25

0.5

1720219460976

1720213225570

0.01

sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2

0

0.5000000000000003

41ontytg1j

{"NO": 43.286652411340015, "YES": 231.018095485255}

0.15780496963055804

will-poland-become-a-national-super

225

Will Poland become a National Superpower by the year 2040?

2240089140000

77QeBj7iGRMwvIo8B4BWcyUR2Cd2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719877771966

MNK19

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Poland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is among the top 10 in the world by the end of 2040, based on rankings from the Worl...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -0.342195030369442, "month": -0.342195030369442}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.596865441218287, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

100

MNK19

1719915592159

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLBNJsGMCOR9CyJIYu-YXkeozU669t8jxXPSFs9XbA-cKM=s96-c

10

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…9/rrugz1ytbv.jpg

1705619272806

0

0.25

0.5

1719915589001

0

33ahemx0k8

if-the-boston-celtics-are-sold-befo

0

If the Boston Celtics are sold before March 31, 2025 what will the franchise valuation be?

1743922740000

RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719878214198

Rory

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A sale is defined as a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "majority stake", "type": "text"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

110

rory

1719878214391

0

https://firebasestorage.…cf1-d1a4b8585b16

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "5pm9y9v708", "prob": 0.09090909090909091, "text": "Less than $3,000,000,000", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.5, "userId": "RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 55, "textFts": "'000':4,5,6 '3':3 'less':1", "contractId": "33ahemx0k8", "createdTime": 1719878214198, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...

0.13333333333333333

https://storage.googleap…y/1a381cxyqj.jpg

1696992748152

0

0.25

True

0

97dp0vv3o9

when-will-it-be-possible-to-order-a

1244.3866794087153

When will it be possible to order a drink with "precision fermentation" derived "milk" at Starbucks?

1927699140000

6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1719879326210

Jes Wolfe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "there are several startups working on methods of GMO-yeast-based fermentation to produce milk proteins, including Remilk, Perfect Day, Future Cow, and others. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "When will it ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 23.70810244794844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

JesWolfe

1719944871168

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcKjht6P3AYXOa2d0KfFkhQ_Fa_Nya7nn9oWrRw1Noi0Fky=s96-c

9

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "rvk1ss18gm", "prob": 0.0414493933848209, "text": "before the end of 2024", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.706639524113655, "userId": "6zyJD9kOtvcc6XR91cTDpxvvHCB2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 686.9899656183024, "textFts": "'2024':5 'end':3", "contractId": "97dp0vv3o9", "createdTime": 1719879326210, "probChanges": ...

0.13333333333333333

1692227943766

0

0.25

1719922215485

1719944869122

False

0

pkv2g6zr9a

when-will-biden-answer-questions-fr

416.02254197184624

What day will Biden answer questions from reporter/s?

1730879940000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1719880351507

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the day that Joe Biden verbally answers questions from reporters in a news conference, debate, town hall, interview, or other exchange with reporters. Resolves according to a consensus of credible reporting or the US pre...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 19.108035486655872, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

47.78020048922211

560

DismalScientist

1720215558822

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

4

1

ONLY_CREATOR

[{"id": "kcz6d93dah", "prob": 0.0036481914862739094, "text": "Biden never answers questions from reporters", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.2845945825848, "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 623.9420141851961, "textFts": "'answer':3 'biden':1 'never':2 'question':4 'report':6", "contractId":...

0.13333333333333333

1668408783448

0

0.25

1720215552905

1720209332041

True

0

0.5

8lj900rk0z

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-an-assassination-attempt-be-ma-g4qpnnzu96

0

Will an assassination attempt be made on Jill Biden in 2024?

1719882386637

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

play

CANCEL

public

1719882364985

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1719882386637

100

StochasticParrot

1719882386637

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

0

0.13333333333333333

1650319241876

True

0

0.25

0.5

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

0