Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.472944414174257
TG3GmkB2xuIYgx91Rgfg
{"NO": 77.2290414820819, "YES": 112.15686734890338}
0
this-convo-will-escalate-into-an-8
395.61590490305406
This convo will escalate into an 8 person panel before it goes back to just Destiny and someone else
1669569230727
R5EPvvH40vXRW7bmhjHkp4Y0Y112
cpmm-1
0
2.965786339007659
True
play
NO
public
1669567765425
Shah
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently there are 6 people on the panel. Only two people would need to join to resolve this into yes", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669569230727
230
Shah
1669569227126
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1sEyPe9RMg6yr44xfx2aRadoNvfzfCffEXHkoF=s96-c
0
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…0d4-fb153b2ff45a
12
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "R5EPvvH40vXRW7bmhjHkp4Y0Y112", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1669567772457}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1669569225588
1669567838385
0.45935728670763387
0.48216772400059976
QjJUWZk331CuSSO8J2y0
{"NO": 1283.005895614453, "YES": 1723.414033476769}
0.40939646513129085
will-china-reach-100000-daily-covid
294632.371701483
(new betting discouraged) How will SalemCenter's "China Reaches 100,000 Covid Cases by Winter" market resolve?
1677646740000
Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02
cpmm-1
0
0.26458083283310185
True
basic
CANCEL
public
1669569087079
Andy Martin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to match ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/SalemCenter/china-reaches-100000-covid-cases-by", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/SalemCente...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677816997764
1710
AndyMartin
1710206839085
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c
6
88
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…258-3d0eb97617bf
62
[{"name": "📈 Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li"}, {"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}, {"name": "Controversial markets", "slug": "controversial-markets", "gro...
["global-macro", "china", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "controversial-markets", "less-than-zero-covid", "zero-covid"]
0.5
1677645655874
1695440589546
0.41
h4Y6M2N9uM6qoCXCsyBS
what-will-be-the-most-popular-non-j
766.7851366506925
What will be the most popular non JavaScript-like language on Github in 2023?
1704063540000
MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.700392420669711
True
play
f003d407f0b2
public
1669569095749
Jesper Cockx
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following repository provides a list of the most popular languages among all Github repositories: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/oprogramador/github-languages#all", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705166276588
860
JesperCockx
1705166298556
1.3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0Gt5dwKjXvdy1UdnzL7vld29tmN1ir3yT8AGV=s96-c
1
21
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "f003d407f0b2", "prob": 0.7666580650056963, "text": "Python", "index": 0, "poolNo": 325.6776660107997, "userId": "MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.12405574292619, "textFts": "'python':1", "contractId": "h4Y6M2N9uM6qoCXCsyBS", "resolverId": "MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3", "createdTi...
3
10
[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1669569095939}, {"name": "GitHub", "slug": "github", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "1dF3UneQBLYPobPmbg9L", "createdTime": 1678292212564}, {"name": "New Year'...
["programming", "github", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.14097550607224482
1703320049166
1705166296870
{"f003d407f0b2": 100}
MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3
True
0.06406932549798874
DxbPBFUIQOsETxwYnioi
{"NO": 928.0498690137982, "YES": 1597.2623748427711}
0.03825273423892371
will-an-inconsistency-in-the-calcul
888.0270333552965
Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?
2524604400000
MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1669569660903
Jesper Cockx
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Calculus of Inductive Constructions is the formal system underlying the Coq proof assistant (see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://coq.github.io/doc/v8.9/refman/language/cic.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href"...
BINARY
{"day": -3.469446951953614e-17, "week": -3.469446951953614e-17, "month": -3.469446951953614e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JesperCockx
1690502793359
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0Gt5dwKjXvdy1UdnzL7vld29tmN1ir3yT8AGV=s96-c
10
0
12
[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1669569661115}]
["mathematics"]
0.5
1690502793231
1669574440881
q4BlMhZn3qRE0dbUUvpU
which-features-will-manifold-unlaun
1606.806482851582
Which features will Manifold unlaunch before 2023?
1672559940000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.654350662504375
True
play
MKT
public
1669569926539
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just as important as features we launch, are the things we \"unlaunch\". Removing features gives us breathing room to work on new ideas, or rethink the implementation of something we thought was a good idea but in practice has been less good than a...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672778640402
1740
Austin
1677478053455
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
24
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "17d54c84b1c1", "prob": 0.006408266383575593, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.030878635454275338, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.7876843901742125, "textFts": "", "contractId": "q4BlMhZn3qRE0dbUUvpU", "createdTime": 1669569927008, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"...
1
https://firebasestorage.…046-f1cec30a6887
29
[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1670940443365}, {"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 167...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "destinygg", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "improperly-resolved"]
1671207622876
1677478051375
{"2bc579d0edce": 14.285714285714286, "53afb872ed6c": 14.285714285714286, "622c15a8cdd1": 14.285714285714286, "81c21099b767": 14.285714285714286, "957dc9b92902": 14.285714285714286, "a19feaf7dfd5": 14.285714285714286, "cfd467c023d1": 14.285714285714286}
True
0.6903914554850962
yuzJkuT9ccRypVvOEvcP
{"NO": 247.56120322371493, "YES": 37.77800902041875}
1
will-gold-have-the-highest-2022-yoy
247.38839586598561
Will gold have the highest 2022 YoY return vs. the S&P, Bonds, BTC, & cash?
1672559940000
VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1
cpmm-1
0
4.670637434273686
True
play
YES
public
1669570828945
Johnny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "source data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "google.com/finance/quote/GLD:NYSEARCA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://google.com/finance/quote/GLD:NYSEARCA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoratio...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672562595353
110
TheSkeward
1672558673966
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj4aU69N8prXAd7lwmlS3dHW-lp_SfATAlIRGkJtg=s96-c
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c62-40a6e3dac0ed
6
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "VfvvoZdf0nZ6zM63ogTgeuPWSSo1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669570829396}]
["economics-default"]
0.5
1672558673808
1669570854379
0.94
0.3608739581962203
vGm4Awo7co3G8Qa594gk
{"NO": 771.9573911739509, "YES": 1459.2350357785476}
0.22999999999999998
will-an-ai-be-able-to-convert-recen
2918.3243660241633
Will an AI be able to convert recent mathematical results into a fully formal proofs that can be verified by a mainstream proof assistant by 2025?
1735686000000
MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3
cpmm-1
0
9.721329122446802
False
basic
public
1669571504242
Jesper Cockx
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Definitions used:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Under \"AI\" I consider any fully autonomous computer program that is not given any human input o...
BINARY
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JesperCockx
1708766207054
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0Gt5dwKjXvdy1UdnzL7vld29tmN1ir3yT8AGV=s96-c
4
34
0
https://firebasestorage.…69a-8f557d159b84
9
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1669571504454}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1691181944031}]
["ai", "mathematics"]
0.5
1708766206881
1688663358731
False
0.4335652873782968
HhE8vFMbNyMieURKDtue
{"NO": 102.86972063903066, "YES": 173.21440096570905}
0.31251528073664314
will-the-us-congressional-budget-of
79.0888618124008
Will the US Congressional Budget Office open source their individual income tax calculator by 2024?
1735668180000
QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1669572220229
Max Ghenis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "US Congressional Budget Office has built a microsimulation model", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54096", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hove...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.02247140851329429, "platformFee": 0.02247140851329429, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
130
MaxGhenis
1713886087771
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…e43-76def675fb87
5
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669572220478}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737180278...
["economics-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1713886084424
1669572259535
0.9042997114931186
IaC7u5Af7a6KFwX49W50
{"NO": 1326.395835073032, "YES": 943.3815670467272}
0.9300000000000006
will-a-full-length-hpmor-fan-anime
733.7509245558044
Will a full length HPMOR fan anime come out before the world ends
1924991940000
0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2
cpmm-1
0
10.250346404199984
False
basic
public
1669572553612
Sinclair Chen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "yes this is yet another operationalization of AI timelines", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2030-12-31 3:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Sinclair
1695008143990
0
https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32
1
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…407-645b4aad697b
13
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1669572554119}]
["entertainment"]
0.5
1695008143693
1669791629196
0.40735978558032715
Ha00tWewG6wbhPSOMnJ9
{"NO": 63.87814573075187, "YES": 233.74541483620808}
0
by-the-end-of-2022-will-i-have-had
134.4459018741556
By the end of 2022, will I have had at least 10 markets with at least 75 traders each?
1672549200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.901715487268512
True
play
NO
public
1669572894120
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672799290896
110
IsaacKing
1672689987454
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c02-0b708b62877b
5
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669572894670}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1672549191978
1672689984518
0.16
0.28063393032656764
mmzlN8VhXdKmyWxEjcdd
{"NO": 68.82280619860973, "YES": 484.99999999999994}
0
by-the-end-of-2022-will-i-have-had-bdbfe1d16cf4
355
By the end of 2022, will I have had at least 10 markets with at least 75 traders each?
1672549200000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.4580501648615987
True
play
NO
public
1669573269114
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also IsaacKing's ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Ha00tWewG6wbhPSOMnJ9", "label": "/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2022-will-i-have-had"}}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672607886095
130
Jenny
1672546310837
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…35d-1648c0e2a83e
6
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669573270043}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1672546310708
1669574756407
0.05
0.6446371398187651
wra13NpyGKCgJjF5tMrY
{"NO": 348.555281250304, "YES": 110.43790832873405}
1
will-i-finish-all-the-little-tasks
1021.7276820923197
Will I finish all the little tasks that have been piling up for me today?
1669611660611
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.205588897661441
True
play
YES
public
1669573360869
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've been putting off a bunch of small things for the past couple weeks, I plan to tackle them all today. Will I finish them all before midnight tonight?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669611660611
170
IsaacKing
1669611721226
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
10
0
https://firebasestorage.…39b-e3d9ca801c5d
10
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669573361464}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1669611654818
1669611718716
0.8319709880077477
0.5
w6saMwo4Pm46zq3231C8
{"NO": 47.08482910742559, "YES": 53.09565835518206}
0.4699999999999999
will-alphafold3-get-above-95-gdt-on
3.0956583551820627
Will AlphaFold3 get above 95 GDT on CASP15?
1670745600000
acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2
cpmm-1
0
4.385118234402271
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669573477329
Vincent Luczkow
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CASP (Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction) is a protein modeling contest. DeepMind won CASP13 and CASP14 with AlphaFold and AlphaFold2, respectively, with an overall score of 92.4 GDT (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670776972214
50
vluzko
1669573595122
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776
1
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…03d-478dde1eccfe
3
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1669573477614}, {"name": "Biology", "slug": "biology", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 16695734848...
["technical-ai-timelines", "biology"]
0.5
1669573487126
1669573594559
0.47
0.18888938030640642
l45wzFjkQwydJZV4C9W2
{"NO": 368.08236876261196, "YES": 199.88006585320903}
0.26666666666666666
number-of-1m-ttrpg-kickstarters-in
40.082819487660856
Number of $1M TTRPG Kickstarters in 2023?
1704063600000
MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3
cpmm-1
0
1.4827620616040498
True
play
MKT
public
1669573683179
Jesper Cockx
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following forum post on ENWorld lists all Kickstarters for tabletop RPGs that earned over one million US dollars: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.enworld.org/threads/million-dollar-ttrpg-kickstarter-club.678540/", "type": "text", "mar...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705166192724
330
JesperCockx
1705166192931
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0Gt5dwKjXvdy1UdnzL7vld29tmN1ir3yT8AGV=s96-c
4
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…a3c-54400b114966
3
[{"name": "Crowdfunding", "slug": "crowdfunding", "userId": "MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3", "groupId": "Afm9dVXjLW7DSDDMBAou", "createdTime": 1669573683434}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737181355},...
["crowdfunding", "ancient-markets", "ttrpg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.16666666666666663
1703104595325
1705166180234
0.26666666666666666
MK41h2o2SiUuYYD09pusseIzyHI3
0.415608550190264
A32yx4ogOXkujZtx54PA
{"NO": 92.64743790905582, "YES": 109.49208955189967}
1
will-i-go-swimming-today
38.09565835518207
Will I go swimming today?
1669658840945
6JtQO4RXIwNTeEWhKraATy4KkGx1
cpmm-1
0
2.8616533872954104
True
play
YES
public
1669573839555
Eli Allman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Going to a friends place with a pool but we have not decided if we will go swimming. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669658840945
110
EliAllman
1669654337004
0
https://firebasestorage.…eaf-cf59bcf2719d
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…a31-fc609f34ce04
6
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "6JtQO4RXIwNTeEWhKraATy4KkGx1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1669573839994}]
["fun"]
0.5
1669654336859
1669573937678
0.3756910511275359
0.23733998623722893
RXcBdXyY57MW5O8XzjJZ
{"NO": 951.1305265141362, "YES": 1114.177998113445}
0.20989812946825046
will-it-be-possible-easily-and-perm
271.8118164248904
Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028?
1830315600000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.630911271696554
False
basic
public
1669575822669
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I hate shaving, and I would love to be able to get rid of my facial hair entirely. Right now, as far as I'm aware, the only methods to do so are very expensive, time-consuming, and often don't work well anyway, only killing 40-90% of the hair folic...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704699370027
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…f44-20885b0990a2
9
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1669575823022}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1704699369892
1669817044401
kjp6MIM3qGeeebiEIPge
how-will-rewards-for-creating-marke
160
How will rewards for creating markets look like at the end of 2022?
1672527540000
CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.790701557021372
True
play
cc11a90ce7b9
public
1669576045465
lu
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this somewhat subjectively, for all answers I think are both insightful/predictive and and accurate. I will not select non-specific stuff like \"give mana to people for good markets\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672825561711
300
lu
1672524998266
0
https://firebasestorage.…7d3-2d620ea6b78c
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "dd1ce7b44dfa", "prob": 0.14792899408284024, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.629191321499015, "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.70414201183433, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kjp6MIM3qGeeebiEIPge", "createdTime": 1669576045961, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...
1
https://firebasestorage.…a45-bdf35e03204c
3
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "CrQD7VbNqgbU6cjenSs1H5fdgEa2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669576045846}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1672524998132
1669576130043
{"cc11a90ce7b9": 100}
True
0.56622603007155
IxVlFyQyBVjvyhv4TdmS
{"NO": 136.2828657620211, "YES": 91.87709222368375}
0.6594289901317947
will-alphafold3-win-the-rna-predict
33.09565835518207
Will AlphaFold3 win the RNA prediction category at CASP15?
1670745600000
acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2
cpmm-1
0
2.6695340958218305
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669576071143
Vincent Luczkow
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CASP15 is adding a category for RNA structures and RNA-protein complexes. Will AlphaFold3 win that category, according to whatever metrics CASP15 uses?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670776992438
110
vluzko
1670281064467
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776
4
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2d2-3ed0460fe8ac
7
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1669576100951}, {"name": "Biology", "slug": "biology", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "82OVufkY4rbpp5uizfqL", "createdTime": 16695760713...
["biology", "technical-ai-timelines", "ai"]
0.5
1670281064284
1669591357691
0.66
0.5918646376384142
d5Vx6AXsvqtvQdoDsADz
{"NO": 808.1746788779357, "YES": 35.41562864241854}
1
will-anyone-send-me-a-m100-manalink
2099.1782809388333
Will anyone send me a M$100 manalink?
1670615946624
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
3.4832571666117604
True
play
YES
public
1669576219642
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone sends me a valid manalink for M$100 or more, this resovles to YES. If that doesn't happen by close, this resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This doesn't include mana tr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670615946624
130
IsaacKing
1670612684012
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…d29-831e394175d3
8
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1669576219876}]
["fun"]
0.5
1670612683838
1670608690825
0.97
0.2185040930481104
epQ8wGxzxLLmVqU6SZ1q
{"NO": 266.50254160401647, "YES": 426.47327970072615}
0
will-i-cut-my-hair-by-the-end-of-20
593.235825249043
Will I cut my hair by the end of 2023?
1704085200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
1.7277437193876244
True
play
NO
public
1669576286653
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have not cut my hair in about 3 years. I have no plans to do so, but you never know!", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704178079557
310
IsaacKing
1704178079695
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
16
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2ad-291afed715b4
8
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669576286871}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129616204}, {"name": "B...
["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.5
1702562274576
1684765500430
0.15
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.5
qHw8BthEZchQyUKjv79h
{"NO": 47.08482910742559, "YES": 53.09565835518206}
0
will-i-get-nonbooksales-positive-in
3.0956583551820627
Will I get non-book-sales positive income before 2023?
1675740243189
zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2
cpmm-1
0
4.385118234402271
True
play
NO
public
1669576323512
Ray Doraisamy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything that needs to be reported to the IRS as income counts as income. Looking for temporary work, such as snow removal, and I also just started this business (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://windled.neocities.org/", "type": "text", "marks...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675740243189
50
RayDoraisamy
1669576466047
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhY1rTDJ6Ly4ocGcud-1lL61xmGp0YmOVoGPSMuxQ=s96-c
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…45e-0713cd977c18
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zgmP0dc8R6d4WORcPVOX6J0G7YV2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669576324076}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1669576338389
1669576464478
0.47
0.47880845925196097
3qRaoYKwpHlEauTxtF1q
{"NO": 129.9424580548819, "YES": 2049.9699292737246}
0
will-scott-alexander-have-more-foll
3045.068263167054
Will Scott Alexander have more followers on Manifold than Eliezer Yudkowsky at the end of 2023?
1704085200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
1.2833794886160579
True
play
NO
public
1669576803741
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation, Scott and Eliezer are the top two most-followed market creators after memestiny, and they're running neck and neck. Who will be victorious?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebas...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704261507776
570
IsaacKing
1704261508035
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
0
32
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c7c-3d91062a838c
13
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669576804432}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdT...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-user-retention", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.5
1703708938408
1703708715058
0.06
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.8194278940569302
ddNZks15BlPtr0wCrPoK
{"NO": 6442.515514676995, "YES": 169.26457574531145}
1
will-manifold-for-charity-raise-100
18641.87232628747
Will Manifold For Charity raise $100,000 by the end of 2023?
1677632908345
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
2.5896890554519674
True
play
YES
public
1669578880582
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/charity", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/charity", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:deco...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677632908345
390
IsaacKing
1677632973739
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
20
0
https://firebasestorage.…4b6-2c60429e31de
14
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669578880900}, {"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": ...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-for-charity"]
0.5
1677629373184
1677632972803
0.99
0.6992955173964988
mzez22q0ncJefEbc9bJU
{"NO": 18899.805615909183, "YES": 462.1457277901755}
1
at-the-end-of-2023-will-givewell-st
33850.06724283824
At the end of 2023, will Givewell still be the top recipient from Manifold for Charity?
1704085200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
1.2312767348986591e-15
0.6589528063231707
True
basic
YES
public
1669579008388
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation it's in the lead by a 4x margin over the next highest contender.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/charity", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "li...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704178065604
1495
IsaacKing
1704178065867
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
4
95
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d3b-a8baf7c6de91
46
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1670744065543}, {"name": "GiveWell", "slug": "givewell", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "7VQzGsVwfMWEtsIREYQE", "createdTime": 1670744063517}, {...
["manifold-for-charity", "givewell", "effective-altruism", "whale-watching", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.13112326563935214
0.5
False
1704085181562
1704178061363
0.99
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.484956846591324
eUejKbfdEM6UsQ6Mqymc
{"NO": 164.55659949670746, "YES": 165.7423198997315}
1
will-this-market-have-an-even-numbe-9ddab0627297
285.1337320887855
Will this market have an even number of traders at its close?
1672552740000
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
0.4013413909243033
True
play
YES
public
1669579530722
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672554726723
170
BRTD
1672551526377
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
8
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…7b2-cad094f7f208
8
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669579531344}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1672551526233
1670904959528
0.48
0.5048347242387239
1XZrW8Dd1sybGjVvrw8b
{"NO": 2421.176925577627, "YES": 185.79783786562393}
1
will-chinas-fda-grant-approval-to-a-0816c7879354
9847.767201234146
Will China's FDA grant approval to an mRNA COVID vaccine by the end of 2023?
1696934576895
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
0.9498291094446811
True
play
YES
public
1669580566791
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if China approves a COVID vaccine based on mRNA technology by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1696934576895
710
BTE
1696934571381
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
0
38
0
https://firebasestorage.…591-951b1d86b46e
17
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1669580567009}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1669580577429}, {"name": "Less Than Zero C...
["medicine", "china", "less-than-zero-covid", "global-macro"]
0.5
1696934571100
1696934553470
0.93
0.5965198434604764
Qsh4VP9ibkQ3MYSQiZJO
{"NO": 975.4359381549413, "YES": 239.5137892300754}
1
will-ken-griffin-be-associated-with-169138f509c6
7083.559419758748
Will Ken Griffin be associated with any nine figure real estate or art transactions during 2023?
1703522707786
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
1.028345869417509
True
play
YES
public
1669581195577
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703522707786
430
BTE
1703522931991
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
1
26
0
https://firebasestorage.…727-bd5f0a9a4bdb
7
[{"name": "Art Dealer", "slug": "art-dealer", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Xj7qMWnWg7aTsuoKgerd", "createdTime": 1670389639332}, {"name": "Business", "slug": "business", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1669581195935}, {"name": "Ken Gri...
["business", "art-dealer", "ken-griffin", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703466724687
1703522931618
0.86
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
0.5179174919295351
jQxgejckh9MTbWDjCUk4
{"NO": 191.2305122436598, "YES": 88.87063706563502}
1
will-i-get-to-bed-by-1130pm-at-leas-12b0f30334b1
77.09565835518205
Will I get to bed by 11:30pm at least 4 times this week?
1670168160000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
2.37596683839424
True
play
YES
public
1669581391270
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670280334776
130
Charlie
1670280384235
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
1
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…168-c77740345a2c
7
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669581391854}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1670164620129
1670280381473
0.698043497819216
0.2887219124152855
ucp67ZWG812BFuhgCUge
{"NO": 130.32754287184812, "YES": 693.9200316015955}
0
will-dr-p-return-to-manifold-before
741.1461367790079
Will Dr P return to Manifold before the end of 2024?
1704085200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.1615918337936355
True
play
NO
public
1669581994550
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2", "label": "DrP"}}, {"text": " places any bets, makes any comments, creates any markets, or does anything else public-affecting on the Manifold pl...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704178027560
230
IsaacKing
1704178027740
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
14
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…81f-347c35b9e076
4
[{"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdTime": 1669581994732}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 170312953...
["manifold-user-retention", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.5
1703943003378
1670721176262
0.07
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.5518254766603589
eKP4yyADDdlMpgmpa2Dy
{"NO": 84.14572301491502, "YES": 131.86270447397663}
0
will-there-be-a-ghc2023-language-ed
92.76021728435109
Will there be a GHC2023 language edition
1675205700000
nqIqxSebTZTMl5PNdUzs4LE5wSb2
cpmm-1
0
2.6785436745782905
True
play
NO
public
1669582581483
Joachim Breitner
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The GHC Haskell compiler started to define language editions (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/ghc-proposals/ghc-proposals/blob/master/proposals/0372-ghc-extensions.rst#motivation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675233450035
110
JoachimBreitner
1675233418321
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu02M8VIesI_6QvvqiNDIKkUHJ2XfM4S_X0Ru_m4VA=s96-c
1
4
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…235-ecf50345576b
6
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "nqIqxSebTZTMl5PNdUzs4LE5wSb2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1669582581768}, {"name": "Haskell", "slug": "haskell", "userId": "nqIqxSebTZTMl5PNdUzs4LE5wSb2", "groupId": "VKibgo46kqn1AqeR0h4A", "createdTime": 1669584331803}]
["technology-default", "haskell"]
0.5
1675037981905
1675233417111
0.44
0.08165463110382436
0l4ljyDOT7jB6Uh5TP4a
{"NO": 962.9045625996376, "YES": 1140.4489755917248}
0.06983036678751506
will-scott-aaronson-ever-pay-out-hi
332.5200568974417
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
32503698000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
10.363227099823568
False
basic
public
1669583104086
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704699382462
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…84e-d1a68b2d6945
10
[{"name": "Quantum Computing", "slug": "quantum-computing", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "WppmGHiwW2nxSiHi2FiQ", "createdTime": 1669583104290}]
["quantum-computing"]
0.5
1704699382315
1669583206412
0.12856235627180423
CTvBqIp9bfeCSxWEiFlZ
{"NO": 393.4910556649055, "YES": 1443.3224661662362}
0
tucker-carlson-mentions-scott-alexa
3712.75334439669
Tucker Carlson mentions Scott Alexander or Astral Codex Ten on his show by the end of 2023.
1704067140000
tiVsErTppMb6ZdlJWFrlMomVgef2
cpmm-1
0
1.8382467979900907
True
play
NO
public
1669583164017
Dwarkesh Patel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It can be a positive or negative mention - the condition is that Scott Alexander or his blog is mentioned. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705246267667
490
DwarkeshPatel
1705246267875
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgGEy7t1u9SqFygUENgZ50WI0aqgEV9ddvRmp-F-Q=s96-c
24
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…dcd-f26a237bf5cc
13
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "tiVsErTppMb6ZdlJWFrlMomVgef2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1669583164558}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130129189}]
["us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1704038698056
1705246264650
0.04
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.18450263554161717
8RdGyZclQo0RSolew3hH
{"NO": 982.5488765964699, "YES": 992.7828840403733}
0.18294866290682885
will-scott-aaronson-ever-pay-out-an
289.6919326526112
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
32503698000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.735193903041251
False
basic
public
1669583458253
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}...
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704699387503
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…e9d-69ceac56ef73
9
[{"name": "Quantum Computing", "slug": "quantum-computing", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "WppmGHiwW2nxSiHi2FiQ", "createdTime": 1669583458589}]
["quantum-computing"]
0.5
1704699387385
1669738488300
0.25793432337269095
GuhhPYf5OeH2MX2hCqP0
{"NO": 50.103119623309354, "YES": 256.7187372905475}
0
will-the-hakutor-mission-1-launch-b
233.83102905863342
Will the HAKUTO-R Mission 1 launch by Nov. 30, 2022
1669892400000
nqIqxSebTZTMl5PNdUzs4LE5wSb2
cpmm-1
0
4.69726008612043
True
play
NO
public
1669584175591
Joachim Breitner
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Japanese Moon mission HAKUTO-R Mission 1 is scheduled to launch by Nov. 30, 2022, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ispace-inc.com/m1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ispace-inc.com/m1", "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670004259609
90
JoachimBreitner
1670004248860
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu02M8VIesI_6QvvqiNDIKkUHJ2XfM4S_X0Ru_m4VA=s96-c
4
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…cc1-474ad19cfc0a
5
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "nqIqxSebTZTMl5PNdUzs4LE5wSb2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1669584175868}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "nqIqxSebTZTMl5PNdUzs4LE5wSb2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1669584342317}]
["science-default", "space"]
0.5
1669886884717
1670004246013
0.06352849407990456
5YFlJGHkZ9XEzC587G7l
what-is-the-infimum-of-the-real-roo
272.8488049862836
What is the infimum of the (real) roots of all polynomials with coefficients either 0 or1?
1670198340000
zClxpnNx0HQlykzXZBBtPmry9FJ2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.742632490271125
True
play
21c67dfe1db1
public
1669584284309
Isky Mathews
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves in a week with the correct answer.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670237464330
440
IskyMathews
1670051318382
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3pPkXzz00BafL4CmLJsm_b4lUdredKxQ3OfLYL=s96-c
5
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "72bc235e25c3", "prob": 0.009272997032640949, "text": "-log(2)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08074129125306967, "userId": "zClxpnNx0HQlykzXZBBtPmry9FJ2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 8.626399557477963, "textFts": "'2':2 'log':1", "contractId": "5YFlJGHkZ9XEzC587G7l", "createdTime": 1669584284309, "probChanges": {"d...
1
https://firebasestorage.…739-7107d63cc179
6
[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "zClxpnNx0HQlykzXZBBtPmry9FJ2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1669584284511}]
["mathematics"]
1670051318201
1669584353730
{"21c67dfe1db1": 100}
True
0.5
aUR5BUMbfDIioeZITbcI
{"NO": 47.08482910742559, "YES": 53.09565835518206}
0.4699999999999999
will-i-see-my-friend-daniel-tomorro
3.0956583551820627
Will I see my friend Daniel tomorrow?
1669584536854
9B5QsPTDAAcWOBW8NJNS7YdUjpO2
cpmm-1
0
4.385118234402271
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669584485912
john garland
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669584536854
150
johngarland
1669584579527
0
https://firebasestorage.…602-3c20a61a0ba3
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…fa8-4186e6d316f3
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "9B5QsPTDAAcWOBW8NJNS7YdUjpO2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669584486428}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1669584499119
1669584577846
0.4699999999999999
0.539174862195738
S1dBbS3TqhyfLRfBwYbB
{"NO": 118.05778200517302, "YES": 34.532506541999304}
0.8
will-i-see-my-friend-daniel-tomorro-93519b6cc031
62.370292352829516
Will I see my friend Daniel tomorrow?
1669584704116
9B5QsPTDAAcWOBW8NJNS7YdUjpO2
cpmm-1
0
1.138009100825987
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669584550397
john garland
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669584704116
570
johngarland
1669584622482
0
https://firebasestorage.…602-3c20a61a0ba3
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…2f2-738909997a2b
4
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "9B5QsPTDAAcWOBW8NJNS7YdUjpO2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669584550931}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1669584622309
1669584576446
0.8
0.854671923842339
FRgIvvz8G26k7OTON0bx
{"NO": 27074.56354322891, "YES": 457.68267820739976}
1
will-xi-jinping-occupy-his-current
31017.576085061042
Will Xi Jinping occupy his current office on Jan. 1 2024?
1704153540000
tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1
cpmm-1
0
0.801185771495116
True
play
YES
public
1669584578014
Anthony Carlino
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704154049950
870
AnthonyCarlino
1704154050137
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiarrWO1IB-v4FHyWapKfNDiJb9oV1Hl1rOD5ROrw=s96-c
47
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…27a-71d70a396b0c
32
[{"name": "Chinese Communist Party 20th National Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1669584579052}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x...
["ccp-20th-party-congress", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1704141054592
1683409584766
1
tlLWuNb8zmTBxlUMfgUcULk3tLz1
0.29761002684820065
B8ZqSvPN3p3EQ4FYxrIn
{"NO": 698.9920078281144, "YES": 2407.7164803371115}
0
-chat-someone-should-set-up-betting
8776.517225098374
Will Destiny sue MrGirl or drop his website after the article?
1681399473889
JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2
cpmm-1
0
0.507220887765554
True
basic
NO
public
1669586047431
PryingMind
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "> Chat someone should set up betting markets for whether or not Destiny sues mr girl for the article and whether or not Destiny drops his website after it comes out - ragepope", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "conte...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1681399473889
1050
PryingMind
1681399547823
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c
52
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…8a9-74996f8edc70
34
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1669586407062}, {"name": "Mr Girl's Manifesto", "slug": "mr-girls-manifesto", "userId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "groupId": "Z8cniuwqzNoWiW08nD5A", "createdTime": 1677225296276...
["destinygg", "mr-girls-manifesto"]
0.5
1681366610954
1681399545481
0.11
0.7411995377088001
hg0wmc2K8ILnPGSLigqY
{"NO": 1698.9043381084268, "YES": 101.26249136861635}
1
will-anyone-go-on-a-date-bc-of-a-ma
1917.2227162274924
Will anyone go on a date b/c of a Manifold date doc by March 1st?
1676448929230
KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2
cpmm-1
2.7313092801272294
True
play
YES
public
1669587352673
nic
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if someone goes on a date due to a Manifold date doc by Mar 1st.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Please send me proof if this happened.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hard...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1676448929230
250
nic_kup
1676448948316
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…792-264028903e34
16
[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1669587353262}]
["dating"]
0.5
1676420221236
1676448944912
0.98
0.32409483713732123
P2omimwVoO3PRITrCYht
{"NO": 209.5130388401318, "YES": 1489.932025693607}
0
destiny-says-hell-be-gone-for-3-day
1514.5844720190303
Destiny says he'll be gone for 3 days starting today on Sunday. He'll be back next Wednesday. Will he stream at all before 11/30/22 (Wednesday)?
1669795140000
9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13
cpmm-1
0
1.3001218198626314
True
play
NO
public
1669587465425
johnleoks
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to stream latest by 11/29/22 (Tuesday) for this to resolve as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669843935091
410
johnleoks
1710218555878
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c
20
0
https://firebasestorage.…85a-fa5ed7607982
20
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF"}]
["destinygg", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1669793617365
1669829901637
0.06316739225215796
0.47692433750138985
k6Z08YFBLswjxVzVmYdp
{"NO": 155.66666666666657, "YES": 143.2241714918228}
0.5
resolves-to-quiescent-market-price
24
[Resolves to quiescent market price]
1670557213305
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
1.694595720774407
True
play
MKT
public
1669588652978
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once this market's price has not moved by more than 1% in a week, this market resolves to that price.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(I may not notice right away, in which case I'll resolve i...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670557213305
150
IsaacKing
1670473745553
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…52c-983d87573d5b
5
[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1669588653229}, {"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1669588801768}]
["experimental", "selfresolving"]
0.5
1670445825329
1670473724893
0.5
0.5
3dek9wsOUgTnQjsX0bKD
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
16500-stock-permanent
0
16500 Stock (Permanent)
1669588897712
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669588859421
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669588897712
50
GeneFama
1669588877637
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…919-c50bc6354241
2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1669588859939}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1669588876099
0.5
0.5
F4zS4yfFBNYO67lB46dD
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
16500-stock-permanent-749c2d2a788f
0
16500 Stock (Permanent)
1669588921212
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669588891446
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669588921212
50
GeneFama
1669589010991
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…db5-9606ddcb17d8
2
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669588892007}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1669589009634
0.5
0.6416441663790977
HmcsltpHwhCNzqPSe9zV
{"NO": 168.0340209851888, "YES": 135.1728885855525}
0.6899999999999998
apple-stock-permanent
223.15676302868158
Apple Stock (Permanent)
33217163036412
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1669588927159
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
STONK
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
150
GeneFama
1713586893869
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…78c-868787c5c1cd
6
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669588927692}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 166966269...
["economics-default", "permanent-markets", "all-stonks", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.5
False
False
1685433177668
1669589009911
False
0.7226494219324288
78LK7lYi6fgGHMWvCG8j
{"NO": 209.02037776540138, "YES": 171.98273928066337}
0.76
microsoft-stock-permanent
409.06675555428666
Microsoft Stock (Permanent)
33217163036408
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1669588959945
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
STONK
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
190
GeneFama
1713585806659
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…a81-88201482355f
6
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669588960569}, {"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 166966268...
["economics-default", "permanent-markets", "all-stonks", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.5
False
False
1685206332483
1669589009173
False
0.7203810375866315
nRF0qojPtB4H1I3DiEjs
{"NO": 7889.343091643173, "YES": 560.1179377621729}
1
will-alexander-lukashenko-remain-pr-a70e2c4a755e
14538.994490996309
Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2023?
1704063540000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0.12994990007395232
0.6049668741509304
True
basic
YES
public
1669589093311
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve positively if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption until 12/31/2023, at 11:59 PM ET.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"te...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704147307505
1260
itsTomekK
1710456598600
1.8
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
75
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d53-258ff1697ce5
22
[{"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr"}, {"nam...
["2024-us-presidential-election", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "europe", "leaders", "central-europe"]
0.16354746005571816
0.5
1703844845726
1684093893268
0.97
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
0.3992091420711225
vpppUJscJCi52cIdzGEH
{"NO": 41.09073955782836, "YES": 124.38341256508501}
0
will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16580-a
82.00505804498589
Will Bitcoin price be above $16580 at Nov 27 7pm ET?
1669597200000
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
4.0578999467265415
True
play
NO
public
1669589944559
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669605427964
70
GeneFama
1669593548289
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…42c-440467acf20f
5
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1669589945248}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.5
1669593535691
1669590004098
0.18000000000000044
0.461977956152893
m5xyT7mlPbwSDPmpfepg
{"NO": 29.650774532958884, "YES": 126.88877450307399}
0
will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16570-a
86.27996839163062
Will Bitcoin price be above $16570 at Nov 27 6pm ET?
1669593600000
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
4.2602916135672935
True
play
NO
public
1669590041802
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "class"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669593653750
110
GeneFama
1669593548323
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…951-1a87d7a1f448
7
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1669590042379}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.5
1669593548187
1669590123253
0.16711616339192445
0.5049047612446088
WHziXaw9oPHZsKXXKmut
{"NO": 140.40671566155123, "YES": 18.263858518694086}
0.8868778280542988
will-biden-still-be-president-at-th-5fe5bade54d7
90
Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to quiescent market price, with no time limit]
1669590412341
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
4.838128652496591
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669590214763
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market won't resolve until this end of 2022. After that, it will resolve once the price hasn't moved by more than 1 percentage point for a week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This marke...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669590412341
70
IsaacKing
1669590428644
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…265-c3b289293544
3
[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1669590214936}]
["experimental"]
0.5
1669590274120
1669590426756
0.8868778280542987
0.3546384092374209
DqcO3ncl41HkAMsBo0K9
{"NO": 180.4055800656947, "YES": 900.7483540260323}
0
will-neuralink-announce-they-have-b
1352.599386434402
Will Neuralink announce they have begun a human trial at their November 30 "show and tell" event?
1669870740000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
1.4067327296136838
True
play
NO
public
1669590255814
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1595643786872225794"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669912860367
330
BTE
1710451912889
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
18
0
https://firebasestorage.…92a-3f3545ef5c96
18
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1669864544598
1669914377271
0.09914771906739184
mHkIZc23lohYGXyfTdIf
define-a-sequence-an-by-a12022-and
113.89546055064207
Define a sequence (a_n) by a_1=2022, and a_{n+1}=a_n + exp(-a_n) and let {x} denote the fractional part of x. What positive real number r makes the sequence {ra_1}, {ra_10}, {ra_100},.... converge?
1670439464334
ZFQmafaVurhQffYaIw7giByCAns1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.861940040644445
True
play
84142f6cefdb
public
1669590411469
klaus roth
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the r given in solution 1 to question 6 of the ICMC round 1 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 27, 11:07pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Define a sequence (a_n) by a_1=2022, and a_{n+1}=a_n + exp...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670439464334
380
klaus_f_roth
1669645214995
0
https://firebasestorage.…8d4-c00c7bf4d7a5
2
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "f0c138bd9261", "prob": 0.31524631782621126, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.250869730024796, "userId": "ZFQmafaVurhQffYaIw7giByCAns1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.81525108232803, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mHkIZc23lohYGXyfTdIf", "createdTime": 1669590411778, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
https://firebasestorage.…5d0-0ac8dc2ec245
3
[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "ZFQmafaVurhQffYaIw7giByCAns1", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1669590411663}]
["mathematics"]
1669645214874
1669590472493
{"84142f6cefdb": 100}
True
0.13085672419782204
Mjb6sOncLLSmixCWYUS0
{"NO": 156.11301521073648, "YES": 2530.3825830646606}
0
will-fbi-arrest-yevgeniy-prigozhin
3416.9900878116796
Will FBI arrest Yevgeniy Prigozhin before the end of 2023?
1700176859182
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
3.8276525118602764
True
play
NO
public
1669590437691
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuQrQuXXLHh.png?alt=media&token=1d3fbc76-0ef8-4f1f-be73-95708de70994", "title": null}}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://fi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1700176859182
250
itsTomekK
1700130900591
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…55c-c5e20762e197
8
[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1669590437935}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1669590604637}]
["russia", "law-order"]
0.5
1700130882307
1700130899938
0.01
0.8013528538685621
YiqrrhRk56iXK0E5805C
{"NO": 334.95471466563833, "YES": 150.35325406003082}
0.8998698264904138
nato-stocks-permanent
310.20182132020363
NATO stocks (Permanent)
33217163036422
gk8w9MeFiFO02WsW4n8JJVzouPT2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1669590545082
ZeSongson
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market for NATO aka North Atlantic Treaty Organization", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Yes = Buy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "No = Short", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is a perman...
STONK
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
190
Songson
1713585832506
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1DEl92YPM3ObV6azXBsP3AaF9mRxFAuNUrD0rWHfY=s96-c
9
0
20
https://firebasestorage.…ac4-849ec98069a8
9
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1713585831652}, {"name":...
["destinygg", "all-stonks", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]
0.5
False
False
1684818395802
1673368004295
False
0.5
oWQgg4jHHNNd6nAvYhcq
{"NO": 60, "YES": 41.666666666666686}
0.5901639344262294
at-market-closing-if-this-market-is
10
At market closing, if this market is at 99.9%, it resolves YES. If it is at 0.01%, it resolves to NO. Otherwise it resolves at probability.
1669604400000
d92Dd2pE6yeCmPlGMqXzmQQbMHs2
cpmm-1
0
4.409209369267685
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669590609443
Dorothy Green
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669646152711
50
DorothyGreen
1669590904377
0
https://firebasestorage.…297-6af4e6fef015
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…f39-030ffe75f40c
3
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "d92Dd2pE6yeCmPlGMqXzmQQbMHs2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1669590610041}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1669590617638
1669590902516
0.5901639344262294
0.5054724448013423
YNrDL8eBW5XkSVXvujAN
{"NO": 310.00000000000006, "YES": 235.51663141712095}
0.65
what-score-will-i-get-in-the-icmc-r
40
What score will I get in the ICMC Round 1 2022?
1671610843403
ZFQmafaVurhQffYaIw7giByCAns1
cpmm-1
0
1.2687282181526882
True
play
MKT
public
1669590652915
klaus roth
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671610843403
270
klaus_f_roth
1669590880785
0
https://firebasestorage.…8d4-c00c7bf4d7a5
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…22c-b20f5a1869d7
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "ZFQmafaVurhQffYaIw7giByCAns1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1669590653166}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1669590880631
1669590704408
0.65
0.2683773499231878
d2p6QZFbZyyxhBtjPToV
{"NO": 449.6089693742343, "YES": 1697.7572341088487}
0
will-at-least-one-of-destinys-twitt
2334.981663816725
Will at least one of Destiny's twitter accounts be unbanned on Monday 11/28/2022 (EST)?
1669697940000
kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52
cpmm-1
0
0.8265334534699755
True
play
NO
public
1669591241978
GAZE WITHIN
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Includes: @Steven_Bonnell, @Omnidestiny, @YoRHaDestiny, @DestinyGGLLC, @ModalSevenths, @zei_nabq, @GazeWithin, @TheOmniLiberal, @MorbiusDestiny, @NecroLiberalism", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669701684762
690
destiny
1669697789581
0
https://firebasestorage.…0ce-f8fe467a3405
36
0
https://firebasestorage.…869-abc86333ad51
35
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1669591242477}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1669697789426
1669591302404
0.08854300871337113
0.7957720840210436
iGKARU9m9CMtlQpUyna2
{"NO": 471.81690500853864, "YES": 55.348420992490475}
1
will-10800-be-raised-by-manifold-us-39608f9c5766
573.4486419764949
Will $10,800 be raised by Manifold users for Charity before Nov 30?
1669666023993
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
5.294848766695455
True
play
YES
public
1669591286665
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/charity", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/charity", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669666023993
110
AmmonLam
1669659362873
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…661-a473099206fa
7
[{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1669591286886}]
["manifold-for-charity"]
0.5
1669659362712
1669591434979
0.9707735492131939
0.09084143907120235
gFATem7jVqHd0QTPXXfq
{"NO": 943.5241880135725, "YES": 1303.3371484931822}
0.06745446240192299
will-brian-armstrong-founder-of-coi
616.6863735398357
Will Brian Armstrong (founder of Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
1893387600000
YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2
cpmm-1
0
10.294554889237581
False
basic
public
1669591340303
Scrooge McDuck
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Brian Armstrong", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Armstrong_(businessm...
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ScroogeMcDuck
1686073797742
0
https://firebasestorage.…67b-77a20a25abcc
2
16
0
https://firebasestorage.…195-aa348a513294
13
[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1673051934537}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1669592224306}, {...
["scandal-markets", "crypto-speculation", "law-order", "cryptochargemarkets", "coinbase"]
0.5
1686073797481
1669591432780
0.928541853082576
9DY3KHVRcKP49BjxmYnQ
{"NO": 1280.8713698057754, "YES": 952.7926104670961}
0.9458538993416901
will-biden-still-be-president-at-th-016d299dbec5
503.09543923895535
Will Biden still be president at the end of 2022? [Resolves to superintelligence]
4102462800000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
10.49573343967244
False
basic
public
1669591866069
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Several people on Manifold have been trying to figure out how make markets like these resolve without having to do it themselves. Yet they continue to fail. It's clear that humans are simply too failable to be relied upon as prediction market oracl...
BINARY
{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1710456547107
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
0
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…e3c-bdb02de7b123
7
[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq"}]
["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "experimental"]
0.5
1704699393072
1669591943562
0.36727646477624476
GSyV0uecxFUmYLleTsPv
{"NO": 959.2804631414795, "YES": 1034.1178208245065}
0.3500000000000002
i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in-da171ff618ea
497.29822425179566
I have been entrusted with an AI in a Box. Should I let it out? [Resolves to superintelligence]
4102462800000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
9.647304201587257
False
basic
public
1669592272202
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market combines one of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "oldest self-resolving markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/i-have-been-entrusted-with-an-ai-in", "class": "break...
BINARY
{"day": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": 3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Jenny
1693803228769
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…9a4-74a0a6db668f
11
[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1669592292366}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1669592304721}]
["experimental", "fun"]
0.5
1693803228648
1681494597497
0.5166784356918439
bCAIKrzqkhNRIxWJpGxj
{"NO": 283.9870817291427, "YES": 254.38099523315375}
0.5440936901096267
will-gpt4-merge-text-generation-and
236.64973332816683
Will GPT-4 merge text generation and code generation in the same model?
1672531140000
sdZ126ooHZgTkOq1HArku4Xf7Zs2
cpmm-1
0
1.2698442137773092
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669592550528
pv
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently GPT-3 has a different model for code generation (codex). This question will resolve to Yes if the same GPT-4 model is presented as the way to generate both code and text.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672676530859
270
pv
1672604478970
0
https://firebasestorage.…181-855d25f1119a
15
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2c6-afd578f7b2c5
15
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "sdZ126ooHZgTkOq1HArku4Xf7Zs2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1669592550769}]
["ai"]
0.5
1672213349698
1672604471749
0.54
0.49627596711584704
hB0sZrMVDzWwVCeeEnbj
{"NO": 973.4816602560769, "YES": 1024.1117124650546}
0.48360629947883527
superintelligence-stock-permanent
192.5690031366466
Superintelligence Stock [Permanent]
33217163036426
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0.11341457615199795
6.9096302773622496
False
basic
public
1669592822376
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a permanent market; it will never resolve. The goal is for you to use it to express your own opinions and/or turn a profit by predicting other people's opinions. Bet YES if you're in favor of the subject of the market or believe other peopl...
BINARY
{"day": 4.996003610813204e-16, "week": 4.996003610813204e-16, "month": 4.996003610813204e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704699403684
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…fb5-425ff9ac4812
8
[{"name": "Permanent Markets", "slug": "permanent-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "2T4mM0N5az2lYcaN5G50", "createdTime": 1669592929877}, {"name": "AI risk", "slug": "ai-risk", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "KIhsoJW7X87JwWSgB3Vt", "createdTime": 1669592870502}, {"nam...
["ai", "stocks", "ai-risk", "permanent-markets"]
0.1192910266109949
0.5
1704699403526
1692003052293
0.5062241833131562
pjcdZmudxOGxXsgPzL0I
{"NO": 77.75945128034462, "YES": 34.24934484017748}
0.699485842232821
will-i-do-at-least-three-hours-of-w
33.09565835518207
[Closed due to duplicate (manifold bug :( ) Will I do at least three hours of work again on my CS pset today before I go to sleep?
1669594869071
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-1
0
4.399791729191103
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669593492033
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 27, 4:21pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will I do at least three hours of work again on my CS pset today before I go to sleep?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → [Closed due to duplicate (manifold bug :( ) Will I d...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669594869071
70
Alana
1669594323858
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…180-64819463dbb5
4
[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1669593546054}]
["programming"]
0.5
1669594323650
1669593595793
0.6994858422328213
0.5992645828851625
vR7w5BQeqPaMBgFBaloF
{"NO": 42.01957517909596, "YES": 141.76328777403816}
0
i-spend-at-least-three-hours-workin-33a697485ec1
178.23671222596204
I spend at least three hours working on my CS pset again before I fall asleep.
1669661430396
ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1
cpmm-1
0
3.3642584043737056
True
play
NO
public
1669593557764
Alana
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669661430396
90
Alana
1669694526442
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-78ac5a80a555
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…ee3-f574c5baf1f2
3
[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1669593558374}]
["programming"]
0.5
1669625435477
1669694523719
0.30711935863016376
0.4444215264876924
wW6iAY8xqWDD4FW6QViw
{"NO": 73.16869542254817, "YES": 101.96709027897805}
0
will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16580-a-1e90e7a53c59
263.095658355182
Will Bitcoin price be above $16580 at Nov 27 6pm ET?
1669597200000
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
3.1686393505900172
True
play
NO
public
1669593744578
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669605444119
90
GeneFama
1669594438833
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…982-2310e0dc885c
4
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1669593745116}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.5
1669594438702
1669593834220
0.3646776222228008
0.17923807549431633
IjPfwzWiZf20JXh1XxDs
{"NO": 974.0031776504395, "YES": 1051.0760342136568}
0.16830705747448454
will-nintendo-release-an-open-world
237.54077871204365
Will Nintendo release an open world Legend of Zelda-related game made specifically for VR by the end of 2030?
1925017140000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
9.754569915301417
False
basic
public
1669593961624
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Includes major remakes of existing open-world titles for VR.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
CarsonGale
1680319259563
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…8cd-48eb6a70c072
9
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1673395157659}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1669594788471}, {"name": "Virtual Reality...
["virtual-reality", "nintendo", "gaming", "entertainment"]
0.5
1680319259467
1670694073844
0.1956511471256323
ff1llur4LJBM34uaycBQ
{"NO": 84.62484586647176, "YES": 705.1943659902373}
0
will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-nov-28
635.7343713243732
Will SBF make a tweet before Nov 28, 2022 11:59pm ET?
1669697940000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
4.129805188126788
True
play
NO
public
1669594261142
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market was created on Nov 27, 2022 7:10pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669754919738
150
AmmonLam
1669697789158
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…0a6-61badb818c0f
12
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669594261607}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1669697789004
1669655441500
0.028361660348580352
0.3481780963348426
MAs25xOIIh3AqXbGM55x
{"NO": 89.75536276035355, "YES": 484.7655908100643}
0
will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-nov-29
363.00197262747264
Will SBF make a tweet before Nov 29, 2022 11:59pm ET?
1669784340000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
2.4379119028964222
True
play
NO
public
1669594276992
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market was created on Nov 27, 2022 7:10pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669815964399
170
AmmonLam
1669781697949
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…882-6bea3537a6f9
10
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669594277217}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1669781697793
1669594295485
0.08999999999999991
0.4373714512161439
4IQy6ohI6d7ELwziSuzh
{"NO": 114.34281434726448, "YES": 404.9290094518186}
0
will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-nov-30
322.8737619534152
Will SBF make a tweet before Nov 30, 2022 11:59pm ET?
1669870740000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
1.8289859180786938
True
play
NO
public
1669594289579
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market was created on Nov 27, 2022 7:10pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669948098382
210
AmmonLam
1669934786712
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…b29-a14d7d87ddae
13
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669594289820}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1669858167377
1669934783828
0.17999999999999997
0.10346765745273065
rEImjJzqcwgAvcI7bqW8
{"NO": 943.1275513419469, "YES": 1255.6445681831058}
0.0797698580582936
if-aoc-runs-for-president-in-2024-w
2910.7766859566664
If AOC runs for president in 2024, will she be the democratic nominee?
1735707600000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
10.172831568055443
False
basic
public
1669594714363
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to N/A if she doesn't run.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.5034305677240873, "platformFee": 0.5034305677240873, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1713919214658
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
25
0
https://firebasestorage.…ca2-8195b3a20415
18
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1669594715129}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1701990147502}]
["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.5
1713919210846
1676671753841
0.500000000000002
v7CJsqQn8xcGE7Fw67ga
{"NO": 664.282865762021, "YES": 3.7634569982957373}
1
will-i-be-winning-this-game
621.0956583551821
Will I be winning this game?
1669595054712
2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2
cpmm-1
0
6.75348652728297
True
play
YES
public
1669594992410
Jerry Bush
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669595054712
50
JerryBush
1669595107116
0
https://firebasestorage.…f0a-15c49bde769d
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…0d2-66d55ad644eb
3
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1669594992899}]
["please-resolve"]
0.5
1669595049192
1669595105573
0.5
0.49999999999999906
BuMEWIzU1l1AsEytWfLh
{"NO": 668.282865762021, "YES": 3.7409308663769707}
1
will-abd
625.0956583551821
Will ABD?
1669595109021
2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2
cpmm-1
0
6.753052297776017
True
play
YES
public
1669595087893
Jerry Bush
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669595109021
50
JerryBush
1669595221118
0
https://firebasestorage.…f0a-15c49bde769d
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…f97-8a05a853d1dd
3
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1669595088450}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1669595105406
1669595220715
0.5
0.5
zWSmMrCNx1ogPmAVowIh
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
general
0
general
1669595322767
2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669595150232
Jerry Bush
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669595322767
50
JerryBush
1669595219327
0
https://firebasestorage.…f0a-15c49bde769d
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e0-10fdfca352ef
2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1669595150798}]
["politics-default"]
0.5
1669595217517
0.5
0.5000000000000024
yQ9VU7EqqsiCMGuZ9e78
{"NO": 672.282865762021, "YES": 3.7186727898624667}
1
will-88
629.0956583551821
Will 88?
1669595400488
2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2
cpmm-1
0
6.7526231428715295
True
play
YES
public
1669595231330
Jerry Bush
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669595400488
50
JerryBush
1669595396857
0
https://firebasestorage.…f0a-15c49bde769d
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…eba-3586500ba1f6
3
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1669595231962}]
["please-resolve"]
0.5
1669595396685
1669595347499
0.4699999999999999
0.5186876894028439
1HjR5Fu2cQNPoAZv2xaF
{"NO": 49.0042210496885, "YES": 56.721355287667485}
0.4821429119961433
will-the-game-be-gone
204.4095658121412
Will the game be gone?
1669596797693
2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2
cpmm-1
0
4.25556100547298
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669595664614
Jerry Bush
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669596797693
70
JerryBush
1669596169890
0
https://firebasestorage.…f0a-15c49bde769d
2
0
https://firebasestorage.…c4c-ff1712dbb28d
3
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "2mTxd2tS7fWKsVugDxemQDDpEUj2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1669595665203}]
["gaming"]
0.5
1669596169704
1669595703449
0.48214291199614334
0.5231052724146382
xGik2F1bOBEdgv4pgsgN
{"NO": 2.891226166973965, "YES": 257.81645376356374}
0
will-us-be-destroyed-by-820-pm-toni
3004
Will U.S be destroyed by 8:20 pm tonight
1669598717117
KIpsyUwgKmO1YXv2EJPXwGxaO533
cpmm-1
0
7.515742782016833
True
play
NO
public
1669598363629
Market Maker
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669598717117
90
Richflexgg
1669600586058
0
https://firebasestorage.…47f-b89a76902251
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…0e7-6eacab1ec9ef
5
[]
[]
0.5
1669598714443
1669600585461
0.9996807683624592
0.7980852957303015
eRlxANYqprO3qZfdA61e
{"NO": 11322.07693079112, "YES": 69.28650169803139}
1
will-there-be-9-or-more-goals-on-no-606d8e499601
12489.26029174733
Will there be 9 or more goals on Nov 28 at the FIFA World Cup?
1669651348123
hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2
cpmm-1
0
3.2470305795183485
True
play
YES
public
1669598573677
Rafael Zamora
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score in the nov 28 world cup matches is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "9 or more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". Resolves to NO if the total is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "8 o...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669651348123
230
RafaelZamora
1669651669763
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GggL6q5Ycr6GnEmC_K4agbZHBpHXNfbvyGJd6v7SwA=s96-c
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…08c-be42e407510e
13
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1669598573951}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1669648428224
1669651670562
0.9984541430810926
0.6294781142454962
KMAjDC4V38FozoBET17i
{"NO": 159.43065146014942, "YES": 168.9766283155089}
0.6158161391701712
will-any-resolvetoquiescencewithhig
458.1269874671392
Will any resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets fail catastrophically by EO2023
1704085140000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
0.6632942174102651
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669599408592
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, by the end of 2023, any market which resolves to quiescence with high probability (but not 1) has failed catastrophically. I don't know how to define it rigorously, but here are some examples of resolve-to-MKT and whether I conside...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705926261385
170
Jenny
1705926261680
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
1
9
0
5
https://firebasestorage.…17b-c728b12e9115
9
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1669599408829}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 170...
["predictions-on-predictions", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]
0.5
1682345377489
1705926257143
0.62
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.4436117252705778
pUeoptQgoU2wqU8sNI2i
{"NO": 53.740168526691534, "YES": 94.09565835518198}
0
will-i-win-a-mocs-lcq-this-week
24.095658355182064
Will I win a MOCS LCQ this week?
1670198340000
qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22
cpmm-1
0
3.6589520767197175
True
play
NO
public
1669600390041
Aryeh Zax
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I 5-0 one of the 13 Last Chance Qualifiers on Magic Online this week and NO in any other scenario.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671066291321
70
azax
1669608738138
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkqupI4ZhzqaACa9wG2eDL-nOfn60TLW83JLJyg=s96-c
2
0
3
https://firebasestorage.…297-5f552de029c4
4
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "qUuDrCqpKnWMx4CK1bzWeWGp3E22", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1669600390704}]
["gaming"]
0.5
1669608737967
1669600515176
0.31
0.5942904315869598
5Dnb4vCi7MsSyd0BzAs4
{"NO": 4613.180470326136, "YES": 217.05153915316131}
0.9
will-the-mysterious-profit-spikes-b
19660.137282059517
Will the mysterious profit spikes be fixed by end of Feb 2023?
1677646740000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
0.9700777962505001
True
basic
MKT
public
1669600408879
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some users have been reporting mysterious spikes in their profit graphs:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuWdycjpw...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677883782961
1030
Jenny
1677893803646
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
3
53
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…92e-3bb62cb757c9
44
[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1669600409185}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669600471614}]
["bugs", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1677646139282
1677893800341
0.9
0.4029922238158983
jFgmHB9I7BFO6gpI0TiU
{"NO": 90.36688719220122, "YES": 140.7492140445717}
0.3023537145942277
will-the-liveaction-remake-of-your
34.09565835518207
Will the live-action remake of Your Name be released on or before 1 July 2025?
1751353200000
aqOFXLdPF1QF86Nx0MhWiblDdyF3
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1669601573749
Zack M. Davis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The project was announced in September 2017 (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Your_Name#Live-action_film", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Your_Name#Live-action_...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
110
ZackMDavis
1680111964172
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0NncDApzFaSe3YV6vcOi7teIfK-RuAkWgKT7tr=s96-c
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…a5e-08dc4b1551c7
5
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "aqOFXLdPF1QF86Nx0MhWiblDdyF3", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1669601573959}]
["entertainment"]
0.5
1680111963998
1669601607002
0.8066697472360495
AQQX9HZxGywCMrWjXsdG
{"NO": 1425.8276278986552, "YES": 69.1083522784138}
1
will-pantheon-season-2-begin-before
2167.907551178475
Will Pantheon season 2 begin before the end of 2023?
1699200461028
aqOFXLdPF1QF86Nx0MhWiblDdyF3
cpmm-1
0
2.763981733005374
True
play
YES
public
1669602044194
Zack M. Davis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of August 2022, it was reported that a second season was in production (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2022/08/sci-fi-epic-pantheon-updates-amc-as-a-cool-new-animation-destination/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1699200461028
210
ZackMDavis
1699200453142
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0NncDApzFaSe3YV6vcOi7teIfK-RuAkWgKT7tr=s96-c
0
12
0
https://firebasestorage.…dff-9dfae96de7e8
3
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "aqOFXLdPF1QF86Nx0MhWiblDdyF3", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1669602044564}]
["entertainment"]
0.5
1697349452084
1699200452413
0.99
0.21704464119018577
0fDxxv67gr1vlPWDBwOC
{"NO": 396.20598791042374, "YES": 4946.296827461507}
0
before-1-august-2023-will-india-and
5184.95688755483
Before 1 August 2023, will India and Taiwan either sign or announce the completion of negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA)?
1690822740000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
1.0624792438948565
True
play
NO
public
1669605192350
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves however ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this GJOpen question resolves", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2648-before-1-august-2023-will-india-and-taiwan-either-sign-or-announce-th...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1690995635476
770
BTE
1690990210909
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
1
40
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…aa2-56338a31830a
17
[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1669605192582}, {"name": "India", "slug": "india", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1691182243788}]
["global-macro", "india"]
0.5
1690818948771
1690990207913
False
0.02
0.49699337719170245
WKe3w66KLOCEzvUMLrO3
{"NO": 177.38643100364519, "YES": 58.42194874776921}
1
democrats-vs-republicans-1-day-only-c8be4f90cbe0
313.9530043516783
Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only)
1669690800000
q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1
cpmm-1
0
2.837012244888659
True
play
YES
public
1669608376827
Gamble market
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES FOR Democrats", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO FOR Republicans", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">50.0% = Democrats WINS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardB...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669691530131
150
Gamble_market
1669690334070
0
https://firebasestorage.…924-4bd06d85e659
8
0
https://firebasestorage.…e1a-f9052291410e
8
[{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1669608377178}]
["whale-watching"]
0.5
False
1669690333922
1669608429421
0.75
0.7416518276323224
am9xH59tAlU6zSfggASR
{"NO": 1019.6295359849671, "YES": 978.3453729458386}
0.7494917785538395
will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-858a794a5a3a
428.24694330121787
Will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
1858399140000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
9.59410490586347
False
basic
public
1669609100740
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0029563191441233094}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.20799655521671997, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1719548870922
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
19
1
https://firebasestorage.…e52-516c5f25b1e8
11
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1669609101313}]
["politics-default"]
0.09747656234952286
0.5
1719548867858
1718133110004
0.2632689251785924
YQv8Vloi9oVT1JIPGNwQ
{"NO": 857.4035539141867, "YES": 1423.4972641332947}
0.17711602583260388
will-ftx-foundation-inc-ie-the-nonp
651.0984553415905
Will "FTX Foundation, Inc." (i.e., the non-profit Future Fund entity) be added to the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings?
1751065140000
DMcp55U7obRPblW5Oaox8d3LbUp1
cpmm-1
0
9.652483243179386
False
basic
public
1669610075968
Spencer Greenberg
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The managing counsel at Open Philanthropy has recently written the following as part of a comment on her post about the legal risks of clawbacks (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/o8B9kCkwteSqZg9zc/thoughts-on-...
BINARY
{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.03653179114053673}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.603471747784105, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
SpencerGreenberg
1718238501124
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu30Vh481KDk8ozDGPoWkqTqovgvPlrtYZ5aCDwimeQ=s96-c
19
0
13
[{"name": "FTX Future Fund's AGI Worldview Prize", "slug": "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "userId": "tfvngTPpESRWGE8z3IAy1LLU7Ww2", "groupId": "cZ4Ds5OMxrEyemQUNxkN", "createdTime": 1669620798565}, {"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "tfvngTPpESRWGE8z3IAy1LLU7Ww2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "creat...
["finance", "ftx", "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"]
0.5
1718238497940
1669626823605
0.897987765454999
neZ787NseFCyYxx7JM72
{"NO": 2105.404533072087, "YES": 852.8984572220104}
0.9560049556583999
conditional-on-having-received-gran
2812.0217204520814
Conditional on having received grant money (after Aug 11, 2022) *from a group in the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings*, will 1 or more grant recipient be asked to pay at least some of their grant money back?
1751068740000
DMcp55U7obRPblW5Oaox8d3LbUp1
cpmm-1
0
10.318864982310778
False
basic
public
1669610300000
Spencer Greenberg
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The managing counsel at Open Philanthropy has recently written the following as part of a comment on her post about the legal risks of clawbacks (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forum...
BINARY
{"day": -7.771561172376096e-16, "week": -7.771561172376096e-16, "month": -7.771561172376096e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
SpencerGreenberg
1707414238884
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu30Vh481KDk8ozDGPoWkqTqovgvPlrtYZ5aCDwimeQ=s96-c
0
18
0
14
[{"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "DMcp55U7obRPblW5Oaox8d3LbUp1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1669610300564}, {"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "tfvngTPpESRWGE8z3IAy1LLU7Ww2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1669620871756...
["ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ftx"]
0.5
1707414238739
1671062499800
0.7876833442708016
YpyIqY26DFCl2H8CaIWV
{"NO": 61160.46409463868, "YES": 357.9117775044506}
1
will-2023-be-warmer-than-2022
99255.93338130682
Will 2023 be warmer than 2022?
1705092881882
SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1
cpmm-1
0
0.0018014460653237307
True
basic
YES
public
1669611294981
Steven
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705092881882
1115
StevenK
1705093042702
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…c8f-8a2a99cc4955
3
60
0
https://firebasestorage.…9b4-f17f30903633
16
[{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1669611295204}]
["climate"]
0.11668770245398193
0.5
1705092868462
1705093041001
1
SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1
0.21306619434893778
0iXs02Rgrv9JYUngHA0e
{"NO": 117.35517194972229, "YES": 420.42862339130176}
0
will-destiny-tweet-by-1159pm-et-28t
665.9726384377393
Will Destiny tweet by 11:59pm ET (28th Nov)
1669679940000
vKhRGd9XhPS5Kb1raBn9ztMUGBS2
cpmm-1
0
3.1638097690365106
True
play
NO
public
1669612204043
ripperino
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will close in 24 Hours.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It will resolve YES if Destiny has had one of his Twitter handles unbanned AND he has tweeted in this time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "h...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669701241419
170
ripperino
1669675156610
0
https://firebasestorage.…98f-e4be0a6efce5
8
0
10
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "vKhRGd9XhPS5Kb1raBn9ztMUGBS2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1669612204623}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1669675156450
1669628905157
0.07026596790479725
0.3178046347242204
mE9XHn84f840DEz7q0h1
{"NO": 603.1418591845658, "YES": 6152.94738253378}
0.04367118463933417
will-ai-beat-the-best-humans-in-com
31802.352294633583
Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?
1735678740000
acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2
cpmm-1
0.11240385481828957
9.094977681258026
False
basic
public
1669612416744
Vincent Luczkow
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any AI beat the best human competitive programmers in any major coding competition by the end of 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Major coding competitions: ICPC, IOI, TopCoder tourn...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.004377659864495433}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.6359337713304836, "platformFee": 2.3335057823662138, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1305
vluzko
1718597894766
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776
1
70
0
38
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1669612416997}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908030}]
["technical-ai-timelines", "ai"]
0.19095050201586314
0.5
1718597891634
1669629152983
False
0.7045265636339378
G0Neai5e42VoKrzpQ02L
{"NO": 6259.5299163606005, "YES": 415.1572846203742}
1
will-bitcoin-close-the-year-above-1-942e25e8a016
15202.749238371662
Will Bitcoin close the year above $16,000?
1672549140000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-1
0
0.7528999248093156
True
basic
YES
public
1669612763477
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/", "class": "break-anywhere hov...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672606147649
1010
SneakySly
1672606651249
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
50
0
1
42
[{"name": "Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1669612763765}]
["bitcoin"]
0.5
1672546050574
1672606170782
0.97
RMN1X9pjKHvefBnoBbKT
what-will-be-the-worst-feature-mani
58
What will be the worst feature Manifold implements this year?
1672559940000
YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.88930496476278
True
play
MKT
public
1669612982461
SneakySly
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the worst feature Manifold implements this year? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "To resolve this I will ask all three founders for their choice, and let each one pick a top worst feature. Thu...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673467804059
460
SneakySly
1673467866862
0
https://firebasestorage.…c38-c3282ed5d66e
6
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "6ab2ed8501cf", "prob": 0.400576830636116, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 29.471652363120022, "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.1013805961728, "textFts": "", "contractId": "RMN1X9pjKHvefBnoBbKT", "createdTime": 1669612982951, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m...
3
11
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669612982827}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1670703986981
1673467864046
{"ba0e64b51f6b": 50, "c9fe135e17f6": 50}
True
0.33333333333333326
jTpovQYzOKQEx9K4dUou
{"NO": 250, "YES": 250}
0.33333333333333326
if-we-hold-a-new-years-resolutions
0
If we hold a New Year's Resolutions event at midnight PST, what % of the markets will get misresolved by accident?
1672550594049
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
1.5141250647954578
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669614281929
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if we decide not to hold a New Year's (Market) Resolutions event or do it at some other time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-01-02 11:59 pm", "type": "...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672550594049
250
Jenny
1669631059216
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
0
0
1
2
[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1669614282208}, {"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW...
["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "new-years-market-resolutions-2022"]
0.33333333333333326
1669631057378
0.3353094267556564
wVx7ge8IRJ9TWnUzjEpP
{"NO": 280.00000000000034, "YES": 251.1390532544381}
0.35997214598779315
if-we-hold-a-new-years-resolutions-3b810a7b7a0c
10
If we hold a New Year's Resolutions event at midnight EST, what % of the markets will get misresolved by accident?
1672550612144
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
1.4150037717143205
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669614314911
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if we decide not to hold a New Year's (Market) Resolutions event or do it at some other time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-01-02 11:59 pm", "type": "...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672550612144
270
Jenny
1669644107771
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
1
0
1
3
[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1669614315368}, {"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW...
["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "new-years-market-resolutions-2022"]
0.33333333333333326
1669644107581
1669620231120
0.32997527725856973
kEw6tavURwFra8pmpK5I
{"NO": 286.227795630767, "YES": 297.6234512785103}
0.32140161456829985
if-we-hold-a-new-years-resolutions-5496c8357754
40
If we hold a New Year's Resolutions event at midnight UTC+12, what % of the markets will get misresolved by accident?
1672550604385
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
1.340402897015325
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669614340164
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if we decide not to hold a New Year's (Market) Resolutions event or do it at some other time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(midnight UTC-12 also counts)", "type": "text"}, {"ty...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672550604385
290
Jenny
1669779770726
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
2
0
1
5
[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1669614340451}, {"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW...
["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "new-years-market-resolutions-2022"]
0.33333333333333326
1669779770539
1669620240632
0.40665568572524663
mktj4OBvNRYXpGd8bOrJ
{"NO": 1718.4059311227152, "YES": 4.2170072696297325}
1
will-more-than-20-people-come-to-a
2448.7303740446237
Will at least 20 people come to a New Year’s Resolutions live event on the Manifold Discord?
1672604569989
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
cpmm-1
0
4.672797814384247
True
play
YES
public
1669614866730
Conflux
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a point in time on New Year's Day (in any time zone) when there are at least 20 people in a voice channel of the official Manifold Markets Discord server, and NO otherwise. If I'm not on at the time, I will require screensh...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672604611923
330
Conflux
1672604623110
0
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
18
0
https://firebasestorage.…5fc-2795bca1538f
17
[{"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "j3ZtGYgwPT0vgjQew374", "createdTime": 1669614866939}]
["new-years-market-resolutions-2022"]
0.5
1672604566290
1672604620594
0.75
fnbspJViaUwThnyB2hP7
which-company-will-facilitate-the-g
1437.6156324488063
Which company will facilitate the greatest number of autonomous vehicle rides in 2030?
1925017140000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1669615005167
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 24.19037929658089, "platformFee": 1.126680506286444, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1100
CarsonGale
1719216550511
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
1
25
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e3849f920571", "prob": 0.5228491073768075, "text": "Tesla", "index": 1, "poolNo": 227.0870782503006, "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 207.2391452171581, "textFts": "'tesla':1", "contractId": "fnbspJViaUwThnyB2hP7", "createdTime": 1669615022832, "probChanges": {"day": -1.11...
7
[{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1669615005346}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo...
["selfdriving-vehicles", "carsons-important-markets", "automotive"]
0.12016305420383294
1719216547411
1679198872471
True
True
0.168498283134248
COOz2Y5P4hV4X7TJ9I0W
{"NO": 272.1016588155732, "YES": 1641.3587716295476}
0
will-elon-musk-acknowledge-nathan-y
3273.4591748784105
Will Elon Musk acknowledge Nathan Young's Twitter poll?
1672556340000
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
cpmm-1
0
1.928660246834146
True
play
NO
public
1669615748832
Carson Gale
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nathan Young posted a Twitter poll asking if Musk should donate $1B to GiveDirectly. Will Musk acknowledge the poll?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Liking, commenting, or verbally acknowledgi...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672565200582
390
CarsonGale
1710451910827
0
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
19
0
1
18
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1672554333328
1672512840347
False
0.03
0.4449326548045075
PYS1fg1BygdGEDrVHHEs
{"NO": 118.5277573875395, "YES": 197.0504647212503}
0.33
what-of-new-year-resolutions-will-b
191.36194073702333
What % of New Year Resolutions will be YES?
1672721940000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
2.1144085753232
True
play
MKT
public
1669615861148
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of binary markets resolved YES divided by the number of binary markets resolved YES or NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This ignores numeric, pseudonumeric, free-resp...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677097432075
150
Jenny
1672681304709
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
7
0
11
https://firebasestorage.…802-dae90c704669
8
[{"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZtGYgwPT0vgjQew374", "createdTime": 1669615861426}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", ...
["new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "predictions-on-predictions", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1672681304526
1669621773407
0.33