Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.68539163450468
80nbaRUIvLSbJsHZio6n
{"NO": 311.6782833535521, "YES": 298.5116493292507}
0
will-markets-whose-creators-make-be
2072.4516202109735
Will markets whose creators make bets be better calibrated than markets where the creators don't bet?
1672473540000
acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2
cpmm-1
1.3243752474054238
True
play
NO
public
1669841822089
Vincent Luczkow
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will split markets into creators bet / creators didn't bet. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listIt...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677120322990
310
vluzko
1677120396754
0
https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776
2
13
0
11
15
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1669841822515}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1672446018839
1677120394673
0.69
0.2924635705603969
GoZ3gPR0xwc5wxMxR1L1
{"NO": 104.80438536174908, "YES": 458.4966374782455}
0.0863288915526014
will-bitcoin-switch-to-proof-of-sta
2418.4059439130874
Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030?
1892041200000
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
cpmm-1
0.08785276781372026
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1669841853823
Jonathan Ray
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.8851832354008304, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
170
JonathanRay
1717234348470
2.2
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…adf-237e27d92d6a
4
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1669841944874}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.12992140048570108
0.5
1717234345358
1669842023288
0.07137991656616292
4wKWpZguB4DOdOLZEsy2
{"NO": 962.4785159180411, "YES": 1122.9875645653867}
0.061808146284622736
will-bitcoin-switch-to-proof-of-sta
3065.579958130832
Will Bitcoin switch to Proof of Stake before 2030?
1892041200000
UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1
cpmm-1
0
10.481464298605886
False
basic
public
1669841918193
Jonathan Ray
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event of a fork, whichever coin ends up with a higher market cap is the real bitcoin, and the other is not bitcoin.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -5.541444110791077e-05}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.004309853964569454, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
JonathanRay
1718560907963
0
https://firebasestorage.…4e6-c893d48ec660
3
21
0
https://firebasestorage.…c77-92d55706fc3e
13
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1669841944703}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.5
1718560904819
1669842090950
0.40355131733015476
xnUKdKrrXpRaxhLtm8d4
{"NO": 142.16929058384866, "YES": 1506.9820700433336}
0
will-scoria-be-slain-by-the-end-of-3fa4ad039dfa
5941.837167383528
Will Scoria be slain by the end of Tombs of Scoria episode 90?
1670631015680
4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2
cpmm-1
0
1.4275474999638629
True
play
NO
public
1669842868671
humblestumble
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if scoria dies before or during episode 90. Resolves NO if scoria lives after episode 90.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Red dragon dying or living ", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets....
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670631015680
390
humblestumble
1670630457819
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhumblestumble%2Fbkinag6pWF.14?alt=media&token=302ce71c-98fc-4c47-a784-79fac2888a82
20
0
https://firebasestorage.…7e7-0a1e37f53a7d
19
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1669842869073}, {"name": "Tombs of Scoria", "slug": "tombs-of-scoria", "userId": "4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2", "groupId": "AXY3pkkh8cVqM6lxgmjK", "createdTime": 1669842877355}]
["destinygg", "tombs-of-scoria"]
0.5
1670630457620
1670359822205
0.09
0.4594066852432641
0EpWg3iaTz2UkK3cBoeB
{"NO": 123.23408087177694, "YES": 126.72314136221704}
0
democrats-vs-republicans-2-hour-onl-c7d994f48192
181.56810923782268
Democrats vs Republicans (2 hour only)
1669852740000
q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1
cpmm-1
0
2.3693525121237284
True
play
NO
public
1669843271387
Gamble market
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES FOR Democrats", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO FOR Republicans", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">50.0% = Democrats WINS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardB...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669856173847
150
Gamble_market
1669852248681
0
https://firebasestorage.…924-4bd06d85e659
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…daf-774f69adb448
8
[{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1670346613184}]
["whale-watching"]
0.5
False
1669852248504
1669843334635
0.45248122087834747
0.13841415564795065
7ZMgmyJpeNDX3gDvpJ9t
{"NO": 441.23252224277553, "YES": 1990.5750651408819}
0
will-any-state-pass-a-ban-on-samese
5080.008259569126
Will any state pass a ban on same-sex marriage before the end of 2023?
1704067140000
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
cpmm-1
0
1.315487030910064
True
play
NO
public
1669845693012
BRTD
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is merely conditional on such a ban passing and does not require enforcement, and is not contingent on being blocked by a court or any appeal to or decision by the Supreme Court.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704160216001
570
BRTD
1704160216206
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c
29
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…213-a72f9eaefc59
11
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1669845693672}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128889346}]
["us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1704064808506
1685045199325
0.03
TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2
0.5242734563688493
YZZEGvg31yC1SPkjCYhl
{"NO": 1476.930700778587, "YES": 1554.2137555788966}
0
will-there-be-84000-confirmed-cases
91482.1262936659
Will there be >=84,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?
1672549140000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
0
0.17112853808461032
True
basic
NO
public
1669845969466
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if there are >=84,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of December 31, 2022 from Our World in Data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/monke...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672774720076
1990
egroj
1673213184189
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
7
227
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…4b4-def3b290a08a
194
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1669847999594}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1669845969882}, {"name": "Monk...
["science-default", "medicine", "monkeypox"]
0.5
1672549139697
1673213174906
0.51
0.7722748240147317
cIv75TdewfKpihVEyTU2
{"NO": 8998.32960365155, "YES": 436.1670550988422}
1
will-apple-have-the-largest-market
14680.80186147289
Will Apple have the largest market cap of any publicly traded US company by the end of 2023?
1704085140000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
0.2105743387402154
0.9207562966836202
True
play
YES
public
1669846341799
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of today, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704125961145
890
Duncn
1704125961692
1.6
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
0
49
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…732-52ec79631846
18
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669846342123}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "crea...
["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.16567847072006467
0.5
1704083896633
1669846652966
0.99
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
0.2773875334796177
0KcccRb1ykzRAVoSOnKK
{"NO": 102.83674145214438, "YES": 3809.0568548645306}
0
will-medical-ai-startup-aidoc-be-ac
6074.133912073485
Will medical AI startup Aidoc be acquired before December 1, 2023?
1701370740000
zRMxfUt51RcEIcZkuw6ySiNJYBE3
cpmm-1
0
2.484633918455187
True
play
NO
public
1669846635310
Algorithmovigilance
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aidoc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.aidoc.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is very successful medical imaging AI startup with several FDA cleared products in their portfolio and ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1701375631818
370
algorithmovigilance
1701362138784
0
https://firebasestorage.…263-3088e8472773
21
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…c02-39af473d6b6f
3
[{"name": "Medical Grade AI", "slug": "rsna-2022", "userId": "zRMxfUt51RcEIcZkuw6ySiNJYBE3", "groupId": "zKIoIMNi1hwtg3l5m5Mn", "createdTime": 1670025105952}]
["rsna-2022"]
0.5
1701362138262
1683411748364
0.01
0.6605987402555339
2L0CWsooGxFr7tbdmBhA
{"NO": 3209.6960838735777, "YES": 80.87251915616756}
1
will-ronaldo-andor-messi-make-it-to-88c6faf8ad11
6006.273259555332
Will Ronaldo and/or Messi make it to the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup?
1670625199566
j2CeSlh3GtWpiZFcuQMDdJVYGKp1
cpmm-1
0
2.418026282058811
True
play
YES
public
1669846731482
Hunter
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Portugal (Ronaldo) and/or Argentina (Messi) makes it to the semifinals of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Resolves No if neither do (not to be confused with my market on if Ronaldo/Messi make it to the quarterfinals).", "type": "text"}]}]...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670625199566
290
hunterbb
1670623220689
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0A6lRUclGETgh9L3k3155dQ2U16VNw0R9G8VK3Dw=s96-c
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…ce2-c77d4229da72
13
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "j2CeSlh3GtWpiZFcuQMDdJVYGKp1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1669846732244}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670623220522
1670623058787
0.99
0.7548247053895639
ycGF7yBCYfjHn3gWhzte
{"NO": 3314.88223843867, "YES": 98.14598773406146}
1
will-at-least-two-new-companies-ent
4821.9595401125025
Will at least two new companies be in the top 10 list of publicly traded US companies at the end of 2023?
1703984919572
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
0
2.9048673378180214
True
play
YES
public
1669846838423
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of today, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703984919572
250
Duncn
1703984920213
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
12
0
https://firebasestorage.…b51-f9854f5dcea8
6
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669846838691}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "crea...
["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703947624178
1703907558607
0.99
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
0.8830076251102537
ZEAncUTEuM6W1Ll8Ed2o
{"NO": 13118.083863110909, "YES": 607.4101882958461}
1
will-at-least-two-new-companies-ent-e4293091fe2d
19594.74496921377
Will at least two new companies enter the top 10 list of publicly traded US companies by the end of June, 2023?
1688144340000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
0
1.3113036302996735
True
play
YES
public
1669847009997
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of today, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1688174313360
950
Duncn
1688164189438
0.7
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
2
54
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…86d-8aecdc3879d1
8
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1669847010299}]
["economics-default"]
0.13213212057496787
0.5
1688141963044
1688164187047
0.99
0.5065883790671464
MdzDT0OAJuVi8yz5g9An
{"NO": 120.10550988608074, "YES": 230.0487558936895}
1
will-elden-ring-win-4-or-more-award
1296.5854359417226
Will Elden Ring win 4 or more Awards at the Game Awards 2022?
1670367600000
WcSwVzTqEkQQGG8nQNhfYUx7sQD3
cpmm-1
0
1.9272546900354728
True
play
YES
public
1669847056413
PFOSS S
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if \"Elden Ring\" wins in 4 or more categories at the 2022 Game Awards on December 8. It resolves to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670558774912
170
PFOSSS
1670365905556
0
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8
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f96-3aaf09b5da46
9
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "WcSwVzTqEkQQGG8nQNhfYUx7sQD3", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1669847056629}]
["gaming"]
0.5
1670365905333
1669847139542
0.35
0.8811917915185986
1HQ99zuyqCAd2M7ddvLn
{"NO": 1119.1745458717949, "YES": 92.85366451286824}
1
will-i-reach-1000-twitter-followers
1124.1119444053338
Will I reach 1000 Twitter followers by 1 Jan 2023?
1669986106376
Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23
cpmm-1
0
6.24911163650718
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will-spy-close-below-375-per-share
3599.5684763186573
Will $SPY close below $375 per share by the end of 02/17/2023
1676678340000
LVSIDerrZLZDqzpwTJ0NmFTVPMp2
cpmm-1
3.4841681912430507
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play
NO
public
1669882707568
Mason Maternowski
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve in a YES: The Closing Price at the end of regular trading hours of $SPY on any day between the creation of this poll and market close on 02/17/2023 must be $375 or lower per share. Failure to meet this condition will resolve this market ...
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LVSIDerrZLZDqzpwTJ0NmFTVPMp2
cpmm-1
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True
play
YES
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1669883061509
Mason Maternowski
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve in a YES: The Closing Price at the end of regular trading hours of $LULU on any day between the creation of this poll and market close on 02/17/2023 must be $300 or lower per share. Failure to meet this condition will resolve this market...
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will-marijuana-no-longer-be-classif
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Will Marijuana/Cannabis no longer be Classified as Schedule 1 Drug by the end of 2023?
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LVSIDerrZLZDqzpwTJ0NmFTVPMp2
cpmm-1
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Mason Maternowski
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sam-bankmanfried-in-prison-by-2030
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Sam Bankman-Fried in prison by 2030
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1669883594489
zzq
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will-kamala-harris-be-sworn-in-as-p
2231.24087175554
Will Kamala Harris be sworn in as President of the United States before 11/05/2024?
1730782740000
LVSIDerrZLZDqzpwTJ0NmFTVPMp2
cpmm-1
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10.096688481848005
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basic
public
1669884436061
Mason Maternowski
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MasonMaternowski
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0.15661535483717984
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will-usdt-tether-crash-to-below-5-b
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Will $USDT Tether crash to below $5 Billion Market Cap by the end of 2023?
1704085140000
LVSIDerrZLZDqzpwTJ0NmFTVPMp2
cpmm-1
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0.6470831451323855
True
play
NO
public
1669884944537
Mason Maternowski
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve in a YES: The Market Capitalization of $USDT Tether at any time between the creation of this poll and the end of 2023 must be $5 Billion or lower. Failure to meet this condition will resolve this market as NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type":...
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1704325201834
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MasonMaternowski
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https://firebasestorage.…a9c-9f259e7094b4
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pom-gaat-het-volgende-meer-dan-5-mi
2229.2428186552206
POM gaat het volgende week (7 december) meer dan 5 minuten over prediction markets hebben.
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cpmm-1
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2.9629820228531036
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NO
public
1669885660963
Bart
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1670417071105
150
Bart
1670417046065
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https://firebasestorage.…47a-75749ab28c74
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https://firebasestorage.…da1-5698dfa2aed9
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how-many-civilian-casualties-of-the-796980801508
3015.968935786536
How many confirmed civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before the end of 2023? (dead or injured, according to OHCHR)
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vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1
cpmm-1
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1.0028765493617755
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play
MKT
public
1669886066508
AVS
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PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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1704347015959
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who-covers-on-thursday-night-footba
10
Who covers on Thursday Night Football?
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cpmm-multi-1
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play
CANCEL
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1669886765408
Mason Maternowski
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1670135461514
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MasonMaternowski
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DISABLED
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call-option-on-will-bitcoin-close-t
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cpmm-1
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2.5907512004757085
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NO
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1669889537639
nic
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1670238814898
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nic_kup
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i-am-gonna-publish-two-new-substack-8fbeb0e3a7f8
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I am gonna publish two new substacks in December 2022
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cpmm-1
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1.9673371160437663
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play
NO
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1669891570738
Pawel
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1672587601579
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https://firebasestorage.…971-efeedbd68818
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will-neuralink-implant-a-chip-in-a
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Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2023?
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cpmm-1
0.12107144183531621
0.4110241272355868
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1669892945981
Phillip Constantine
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1704087267149
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will-neuralink-implant-a-chip-in-a-176c82369acb
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Will a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by the end of 2024?
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cpmm-1
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basic
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[{"id": "08d732f462da", "prob": 0.128, "text": "between the 1st and the 6th", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.884884696398754, "userId": "y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 40.09077699421651, "textFts": "'1st':3 '6th':6", "contractId": "73xlQOk2j3AuSkD6oQQB", "createdTime": 1669914357713, "probChanges"...
https://firebasestorage.…572-4145711c6feb
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[{"name": "Duolingo", "slug": "duolingo", "userId": "y3ewzQk8ZdUyMJBIjAlEWcL2QsG2", "groupId": "Hcr1uDm5BE3w2fp8EgQC", "createdTime": 1669914357956}]
["duolingo"]
1670257533343
1670208614755
{"f50a53e62412": 100}
True
0.7018449976364679
hWAbREhsW1DaIDE2J2M2
{"NO": 1009.9401536197086, "YES": 389.0116619189112}
1
will-it-be-confirmed-that-frances-l
808.0456267552879
Will it be confirmed that Frances Lorenz is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1670075855446
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
0.9018330330275379
True
play
YES
public
1669914585376
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1598345934215282688"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215...
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0
1670078564440
540
ms
1670078621552
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…127-654596d372f3
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[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1669915172061}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669915166015}, {"n...
["twitter", "effective-altruism", "qualy-the-lightbulb"]
0.5
1670044601287
1670078618500
0.8593783244270965
0.48389548442265007
CabY7Fgf90PeYkGbwX93
{"NO": 670.1237009307367, "YES": 1903.9169649507608}
0
will-it-be-confirmed-that-julian-ha
5790.717372891221
Will it be confirmed that Julian Hazell is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675295940000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
0.3866218389444098
True
basic
NO
public
1669915373268
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
BINARY
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1683322580656
1140
ms
1683477309171
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
29
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…4fc-777ef67696f7
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669917374533}, {"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918871625}]
["twitter", "qualy-the-lightbulb"]
0.5
1675288459630
1683477306845
0.25
0.24760268882273168
2sEJGEYi20l9gSFdX7ii
{"NO": 396.85557578443024, "YES": 844.4665363388185}
0.13393889148092308
will-it-be-confirmed-that-kristen-k
3313.7498474841896
Will it be confirmed that Kristen @Kirsten3531 is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675292340000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
1.0563559160399751
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669916952431
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1598345934215282688"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-21 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":...
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1683322865479
490
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1675291486480
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
18
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…b30-8afda35f888b
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669916952752}, {"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918877666}]
["twitter", "qualy-the-lightbulb"]
0.5
1675291486380
1669917050857
0.13
0.13912871890305578
o26V5HsIg4tHIuLQNUlw
{"NO": 366.29517801934026, "YES": 786.4926645302215}
0.07000000000000009
will-it-be-confirmed-that-nathan-yo
4797.145886474608
Will it be confirmed that Nathan Young is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675295940000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
1.7349355262195574
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669917271401
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1683232994847
430
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1675288460748
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
20
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…205-2cfd63f16935
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669917404426}, {"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918462066}]
["twitter", "qualy-the-lightbulb"]
0.5
1675288460625
1669917317837
0.07
0.20664974740094522
9DonH8gISAtv55GPojln
{"NO": 85.31484387982489, "YES": 1489.5503594238546}
0
will-it-be-possible-to-send-nfts-fr
2376.2608623836154
Will it be possible to send NFTs from the Coinbase wallet on iOS on January 20?
1674255540000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
3.8356339271951096
True
play
NO
public
1669917314241
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Popular NFT and cryptocurrency app Coinbase Wallet today said that Apple required an NFT-sending feature to be removed from the app due to an in-app purchase dispute. Apple's App Store review team apparently told Coinbase that the \"gas fees requir...
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1674387859249
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itsTomekK
1674255108728
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
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0
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https://firebasestorage.…c8b-451a2cf6f213
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[{"name": "Crypto news", "slug": "crypto-news", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Ft8hmbcP5YZiWXaz4ILM", "createdTime": 1669917314475}]
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1674255108537
1669917432607
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{"NO": 306.00607602046296, "YES": 498.16877654984245}
0.13400807533519812
will-it-be-confirmed-that-tetraspac
2202.433029718149
Will it be confirmed that TetraspaceWest is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675292340000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
1.6342119988644384
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669917347801
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
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0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1683232997900
350
ms
1675291492387
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
17
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…c82-6fd327b8e99c
18
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669917348121}, {"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918457697}]
["twitter", "qualy-the-lightbulb"]
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1675291492281
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{"NO": 682.8022733674873, "YES": 1566.2067654142083}
0.07631116708276355
will-it-be-confirmed-that-eliezer-y
4732.745770056005
Will it be confirmed that Eliezer Yudkowsky is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675292340000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
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0.9315237534365037
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669917478565
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1683233009266
810
ms
1683274471649
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
2
40
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…838-eae6a249d03b
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[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669917571023}, {"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918448418}]
["twitter", "qualy-the-lightbulb"]
0.5
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{"NO": 188.33872775352472, "YES": 15.677039286452157}
1
will-ye-praise-hitlernazis-again
135
Will Ye praise hitler/nazis again?
1669919377632
rsvye6NAMCMbDjX2lRmvN2fbsSq1
cpmm-1
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4.902482494145218
True
play
YES
public
1669918524347
Hc Hc
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
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1669919377632
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HcHc
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu20EvwfCFRQQ8E29PM3BTSG4Q_7U0V42YFcF2g2=s96-c
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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "rsvye6NAMCMbDjX2lRmvN2fbsSq1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1669918524987}]
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{"NO": 277.7652426437436, "YES": 595.2313066817252}
0.07000000000000006
will-it-be-confirmed-that-rob-wibli
2344.6540066011976
Will it be confirmed that Rob Wiblin is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675292340000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
2.213911556851766
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669918545265
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
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1683233013061
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1675288442929
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0
19
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[{"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918558960}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669918561616}]
["qualy-the-lightbulb", "twitter"]
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1675288442807
1669918588993
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0.3180557448960356
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{"NO": 491.9317494725316, "YES": 535.3477819329481}
0.3000000000000001
will-it-be-confirmed-that-rafael-ru
1197.3613280621994
Will it be confirmed that Rafael Ruiz is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675292340000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
0
0.8329494498102626
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669918639413
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1683322776878
510
ms
1675291498198
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c
14
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…bb5-5299e2f5f74b
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[{"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918639589}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669918649366}]
["qualy-the-lightbulb", "twitter"]
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1675291497085
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{"NO": 330.84315917873465, "YES": 680.8128044324741}
0.14736084602426958
will-it-be-confirmed-that-dustin-mo
1442.4981938770868
Will it be confirmed that Dustin Moskovitz is involved with the Qualy the Lightbulb account if I guess so?
1675295940000
k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2
cpmm-1
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1.1924727220346596
True
play
CANCEL
public
1669918695175
Mikhail Samin⚡️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "given three attempts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/frances__lorenz/status/1598345934215282688", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to guess who...
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1683232986669
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1675288463401
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19
0
19
https://firebasestorage.…ed0-ddeaa8504c84
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[{"name": "Qualy the Lightbulb", "slug": "qualy-the-lightbulb", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "E3oSAYoeYDAgdPPss32y", "createdTime": 1669918853359}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1669918855735}]
["qualy-the-lightbulb", "twitter"]
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1675288463315
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{"NO": 121.85272888823611, "YES": 36.69008988562516}
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will-todays-stream-reach-20k-viewer
104.96372182522617
Will today's stream reach 20K viewers
1669920930226
QRrLcRqZKIfzImkMRnIcXQCm19k1
cpmm-1
0
3.8423662072584106
True
play
YES
public
1669918831760
David Davidson
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by the end of stream today Dec 1st the stream never reached 20K viewers this will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the stream does reach 20K viewers (and there's some kind of ...
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1669920930226
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DavidDavidson
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https://firebasestorage.…983-44d1650b8b5f
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[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
["destinygg"]
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{"NO": 7184.916355823395, "YES": 766.7499675182918}
1
will-the-netherlands-beat-the-usa
17121.104668164437
Will the Netherlands beat the USA?
1670083200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
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0.35055112837971336
True
basic
YES
public
1669919170932
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Netherlands", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = USA", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "See details and google's win probability here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "at...
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1670086565419
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