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0.6676550362117777 | 0DJG6IGJqcpAFHt7cfw8 | {"NO": 1183.0831517332679, "YES": 892.0713928265055} | 0.7270945516986047 | what-will-be-the-final-net-irr-for-96347b0e817a | 2191.1185172820033 | What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100) | 2240639940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.632350917803358 | False | play | public | 1670012915484 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1687079651935 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Fund Performance Forecasting", "slug": "fund-performance-forecasting", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "7bOJDvQzInompgvmPjRW", "createdTime": 1670359161750}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy"... | ["private-markets", "fund-performance-forecasting", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"] | 0.11368080387347348 | 0.5 | 1687079651785 | 1670013067336 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6955394631145474 | gDSQzNYuqoQv3utyBKa9 | {"NO": 4635.814177760505, "YES": 109.13213192563853} | 1 | will-a-universitylevel-student-be-p | 6970.734765957715 | Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM I to write a school paper by July 1st 2023? | 1672236246167 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.166943928331787 | True | play | YES | public | 1670013460698 | Marcus Abramovitch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With the publishing of ChatGPT and it's ability to write essays, answer questions, etc. at the very least at the graduate level, it seems likely that people will begin to use it for school work. Will a student be accused and subsequently punished f... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672236246167 | 350 | MarcusAbramovitch | 1672250367644 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670013460997}, {"name": "ChatGPT ", "slug": "chatgpt", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1670388175591}] | ["ai", "chatgpt"] | 0.5 | 1672236239941 | 1672250365342 | 0.87 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5415826199723762 | z4eqULt9vNgiy1nu4LSc | {"NO": 448.71292283371406, "YES": 248.9826569126925} | 0.6804228270299968 | what-will-be-the-final-net-irr-for-e2f837ac3e20 | 2249.818476651862 | What will be the final net IRR for Thoma Bravo XV? (X100) | 2240639940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670013673212 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 330 | CarsonGale | 1718661478745 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Fund Performance Forecasting", "slug": "fund-performance-forecasting", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "7bOJDvQzInompgvmPjRW", "createdTime": 1670359161750}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy"... | ["private-markets", "fund-performance-forecasting", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1685468711061 | 1718661477740 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6344799986322003 | KLRGKKhTUtrXrGIFTwJD | {"NO": 310.3965140676642, "YES": 241.30892764779827} | 0.6906708284262852 | by-2028-will-i-think-conjecture-has | 2394.9359340758924 | By 2028, will I think Conjecture has been net-good for the world? | 1830297600000 | 5phKPAhVVsQMhK0QmKVoUscKxYm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670013693924 | Phil Hazelden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to my subjective judgement, but I'll take opinions of those I respect at the time into account. As of market creation, people whose opinions I value highly include Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 270 | philh | 1709826200798 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnFKaQNedgZ5COdyAvd6NVtvKqQnWDS9-3P64p9=s96-c | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "userId": "5phKPAhVVsQMhK0QmKVoUscKxYm2", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1670013694158}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737196453}] | ["ai-safety", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1709826200650 | 1670013799660 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7585744665768245 | bwkPUWeYlEuDoryFOfST | {"NO": 9845.695172891928, "YES": 96.07307596085411} | 1 | will-there-be-5-or-more-goals-on-de | 16655.127221512215 | Will there be 5 or more goals on Dec 3 at the FIFA World Cup? | 1670098023657 | hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4736030508889866 | True | play | YES | public | 1670013768044 | Rafael Zamora | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during the 90 minutes plus 30 minutes extra time ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(if any)", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670098023657 | 370 | RafaelZamora | 1670098015370 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GggL6q5Ycr6GnEmC_K4agbZHBpHXNfbvyGJd6v7SwA=s96-c | 0 | 19 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670013768436}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670098015176 | 1670087539082 | 0.7680917563439997 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6159024032968722 | Fyi1KQkZHBUb4eGCD34r | {"NO": 1060.3265114813407, "YES": 958.4580525322135} | 0.6395008169426787 | by-2028-will-i-think-anthropic-has | 10162.527790821588 | By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world? | 1830297600000 | 5phKPAhVVsQMhK0QmKVoUscKxYm2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.66610848361248 | False | basic | public | 1670014197964 | Phil Hazelden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to my subjective judgement, but I'll take opinions of those I respect at the time into account. As of market creation, people whose opinions I value highly include Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.030107560208909367} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.157187493796727, "platformFee": 0.598228796111717, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | philh | 1718895603509 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnFKaQNedgZ5COdyAvd6NVtvKqQnWDS9-3P64p9=s96-c | 2 | 37 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "userId": "5phKPAhVVsQMhK0QmKVoUscKxYm2", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1670014198160}] | ["ai-safety"] | 0.12297781708899543 | 0.5 | 1718895600425 | 1670109458803 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7323062072625297 | Q9NkqSOdaxnwZOTA62nH | {"NO": 6420.050433587672, "YES": 113.20444288160434} | 1 | will-any-additional-player-get-a-re | 10525.21881292188 | Will any additional player get a red card before the end of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | 1670644969943 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.385957802808514 | True | play | YES | public | 1670015114861 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only moving forward from the end of the group stages. Red card must be given between the Round of 16 and the conclusion of the world cup.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670644969943 | 350 | Predictor | 1670644957695 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670015115224}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670644957511 | 1670642780301 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8730081512321208 | n1gdgTcAi4hCZizBQyVi | {"NO": 3052.186798029192, "YES": 760.5830427658572} | 1 | will-a-universitylevel-student-be-p-59c8540738d1 | 8215.954377024626 | Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM to write a school paper by December 31st 2023? | 1672236199807 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.009626397712731 | True | play | YES | public | 1670016601790 | Marcus Abramovitch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With the publishing of ChatGPT and it's ability to write essays, answer questions, etc. at the very least at the graduate level, it seems likely that people will begin to use it for school work. Will a student be accused and subsequently punished f... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672236199807 | 930 | MarcusAbramovitch | 1719309544720 | 0 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 39 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1670020727433}, {"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 16700... | ["ai", "ai-impacts", "technical-ai-timelines", "university-politics", "chatgpt"] | 0.122271911745 | 0.5 | 1672236193349 | 1719309543520 | 0.91 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4836191256129394 | XbPpOTBbHIg4OiAb1RWM | {"NO": 11846.89887560898, "YES": 11.72496115895774} | 1 | will-a-team-from-the-afc-caf-or-con | 15142.000132978832 | Will a team from the AFC, CAF or CONCACAF make it to the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup? | 1670348970688 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.806365473500812 | True | play | YES | public | 1670021658947 | Tripping | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to YES if a team from the AFC, CAF or CONCACAF wins their Round of 16 match at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, thus making it to the quarterfinals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670348970688 | 530 | Tripping | 1670348812638 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1670021814892}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16700216593... | ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "soccer"] | 0.5 | 1670348812482 | 1670021739220 | 0.998944362734994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.22769120225227246 | cRRWu5KFL1rDia5okyDd | {"NO": 304.5373038102684, "YES": 1843.604841474774} | 0 | will-ethereums-price-be-above-1300 | 5949.583307662886 | Will Ethereum's price be above $1300 on December 16th. | 1671227940000 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3154797782696066 | True | play | NO | public | 1670029491097 | Marcus Abramovitch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves on December 16th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/", "type": "te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671250388690 | 570 | MarcusAbramovitch | 1671227794922 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "U.S. vs Ethereum", "slug": "us-vs-ethereum", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "e9AtIDNUyYnrU0Jhjpk2", "createdTime": 1670029503401}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1670029... | ["crypto-speculation", "us-vs-ethereum", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1671227791622 | 1670029631726 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1419706783869525 | eWCml6zHIupnLoIMID1h | {"NO": 641.4811333757965, "YES": 5041.808084574149} | 0 | will-chatgpt-get-shut-down-by-the-e | 13694.776703750638 | Will ChatGPT get shut down by the end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | JrykazFiDSWGg1k1ElqHIS6ylh52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.043311264264299 | True | play | NO | public | 1670031926899 | Arthur Conmy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://chat.openai.com/chat", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.openai.com/chat", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " stops acc... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672560485241 | 890 | ArthurConmy | 1672557014359 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0ipqDA7H8zrISQJn5V_iJ-ufBYYeQ_qT9h7W2KWQ=s96-c | 45 | 0 | 1 | 43 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "JrykazFiDSWGg1k1ElqHIS6ylh52", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670031927159}, {"name": "ChatGPT ", "slug": "chatgpt", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "lG71NUBORXAsxGmQZo77", "createdTime": 1670388175591}] | ["ai", "chatgpt"] | 0.5 | 1672557014202 | 1670086101566 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4344806453368266 | KCNNY2NHWdeWtz8ZtLKx | {"NO": 445.0782921049536, "YES": 6642.059007412205} | 0 | will-destiny-have-more-views-on-dec | 19723.703774142487 | Will Destiny have more views in December than November? | 1672531200000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4929103629426619 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670032655520 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Destiny have more views during December 2022 than November 2022? Going off social blade: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialb... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672553248974 | 1550 | Wobbles | 1672368643841 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 64 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670032655988}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672368643728 | 1671724155736 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5415666448036836 | 5jKfQ9YRLuJ9zlyL1FVS | {"NO": 73.79399050999572, "YES": 90.73415339452133} | 0 | should-dgg-ban-soy | 1445.3786316108299 | SHOULD DGG BAN SOY (WHATEVER HAS MORE ODDS I WILL RESOLVE AS) | 1670037660000 | JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6206210638450622 | True | play | NO | public | 1670033923236 | PryingMind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = SOY YOU CAN'T HAVE IRONY", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO = SOY YOU CAN'T BAN SOY", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 HOUR ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670037679826 | 270 | PryingMind | 1670040619476 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670033924333}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670037657708 | 1670040614641 | 0.49000000000000005 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3025525233533452 | 3nUgF6vRuUIowZbd7TPn | {"NO": 27.937660753004828, "YES": 7906.312754548951} | 0 | will-an-official-manifold-wiki-be-b | 12857.486239906762 | Will an official Manifold wiki be better than the official Manifold help after three months? | 1701579540000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8417933112924896 | True | play | NO | public | 1670036221591 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Timer starts once an official Manifold wiki exists. An official wiki is one that is linked from the sidebar, similar to the official Manifold discord.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After thr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1701607561076 | 880 | MartinRandall | 1701601743195 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1670036221853}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1701573784364 | 1701601741431 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5091970279036045 | Sk0d8weqe95Xx9ZtvEhy | {"NO": 336.15394579261783, "YES": 34.98433706315946} | 1 | pepe-vs-yee-1-hour | 1838.7047733430759 | PEPE vs YEE (1 HOUR) | 1670041440000 | JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.262565414987918 | True | play | YES | public | 1670037848934 | PryingMind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = PEPE", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO = YEE", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670041496085 | 250 | PryingMind | 1670041592860 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1672786575574}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670037849497}, {"name": "Non... | ["gaming", "whale-watching", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1670041439521 | 1670041589498 | 0.4699999999999998 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.517710605048147 | pzgpO6rc8hEGSjB4sjS7 | {"NO": 305.1743080103511, "YES": 259.34205096375115} | 0.4666666666666666 | how-well-will-chatgpt-do-on-the-lsa | 200 | How well will ChatGPT do on the LSAT? | 1670043600000 | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2236820006241822 | True | play | MKT | public | 1670038936323 | arae | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will paste practice LSAT questions from Khan Academy into ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ChatGPT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://chat.openai.com/chat", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and s... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670043930136 | 330 | a | 1710462517082 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}] | ["ai", "short-fuse"] | 0.5166666666666667 | 1670043577537 | 1670046027634 | 0.4666666666666666 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5280624164143525 | Ne7B5HSC9hCCylmMTF5z | {"NO": 467.4993130185965, "YES": 193.47398423927086} | 1 | will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-355fa440f3de | 3450.1046066754097 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Day) | 1670122800000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2499221571597539 | True | play | YES | public | 1670040998962 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At closing, market resolves to \"Yes\" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to \"No\" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670123202265 | 330 | Gamble_market | 1670122774906 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670040999233}] | ["selfresolving"] | 0.5 | 1670122774801 | 1670041114120 | 0.7299999999999999 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3531285227365988 | 1UzcMQRhfBkzthk4CRGj | {"NO": 90.39377236920146, "YES": 2605.416118279031} | 0 | will-nyck-de-vries-score-more-point | 3138.1933388049297 | Will Nyck De Vries score more points than Yuki Tsunoda in 2023? | 1689134564733 | zl2TcGMBsDQjQI55IHhAYF7CD5x1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.167708024021227 | True | play | NO | public | 1670123298383 | Lowerky | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1689134564733 | 350 | Lowerky | 1710207102757 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XLGgBLv-rb0XxS2Urfe4Ng0o_9iwUf-Nyd5AX=s96-c | 17 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "🏎️ Formula 1", "slug": "formula-1", "groupId": "OyHBKJOz9YaGkDctpwuY"}] | ["formula-1"] | 0.5 | 1689098548826 | 1689090800071 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5454263937452286 | dqqNe9gVxzlUq5eGJt9y | {"NO": 101.36986301369862, "YES": 80.73660714285717} | 1 | democrats-vs-republicans-2-hour-onl-5a40da566811 | 27 | Democrats vs Republicans (2 hour only) | 1670129940000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0311626329232015 | True | play | YES | public | 1670123527610 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES FOR Democrats", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO FOR Republicans", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">50.0% = Democrats WINS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardB... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670168823894 | 90 | Gamble_market | 1670125077226 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1670346638237}] | ["whale-watching"] | 0.5 | False | 1670125077052 | 1670123607429 | 0.6010379451919418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6014794895247975 | iqtEWYEZxSvuQV9jVNSM | {"NO": 82.12805626044901, "YES": 192.77698813020402} | 0 | democrats-vs-republicans-1-day-only-3196c8042d77 | 263.8312631492955 | Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only) | 1670209200000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.372690185794292 | True | play | NO | public | 1670123542867 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES FOR Democrats", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO FOR Republicans", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ">50.0% = Democrats WINS", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardB... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670209997854 | 150 | Gamble_market | 1670204423650 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1670123543113}] | ["whale-watching"] | 0.5 | False | 1670204423495 | 1670123607103 | 0.39135481903877983 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4915600377297239 | IXZR4JdYN7Aw3z774Xag | {"NO": 258.9979438206811, "YES": 271.26596882799583} | 0 | positive-ev-bet-1-day-cb7133c9491a | 974.1246476095824 | Positive EV bet (1 Day) | 1670209200000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7649538915075285 | True | play | NO | public | 1670123628770 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After closing, I will call @FairlyRandom to randomly generate a number from 1 to 2. If 1 is rolled, the market resolves to Yes. if 2 is rolled, the market resolves to No. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670210313000 | 270 | Gamble_market | 1670210165619 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1670123629020}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime": 16... | ["fairlyrandom", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1670205401071 | 1670210162794 | 0.4800000000000001 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6966167898424118 | plaGx26wvK4Vi4V62UCM | {"NO": 167.80222633652798, "YES": 417.40939517746114} | 0 | will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-865cc2559948 | 613.4147457208189 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Day) | 1670209200000 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.378953540570519 | True | play | NO | public | 1670123654101 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At closing, market resolves to \"Yes\" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to \"No\" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670210047943 | 350 | Gamble_market | 1670209175028 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1670123654356}, {"name": "Non-Predictive Profits", "slug": "nonpredictive-profits", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "sVCyD10FvUk5af10QT6H", "createdTime":... | ["selfresolving", "nonpredictive-profits"] | 0.5 | False | 1670209174907 | 1670123724256 | 0.4799999999999999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30813027719735603 | Upel4iAIvc69kIYat0Ng | {"NO": 159.06653213722427, "YES": 716.2942902972128} | 0.08999929385406188 | will-the-weights-to-the-opt175b-mod | 3691.121391381453 | Will the weights to the OPT-175B model be widely available before May 2nd, 2023 | 1705381200000 | kO3rwXy0svaMf7WXWwTcmZVTkWE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670124057648 | Edward Kmett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meta presented ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "OPT: Open Pre-trained Transformer Language Models ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.01068", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "on M... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 290 | EdwardKmett | 1702957643206 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEdwardKmett%2FShKdrZQOHP.27?alt=media&token=505951a5-0a1e-498c-99c4-8ef6b11a157f | 15 | 0 | 47 | 9 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "kO3rwXy0svaMf7WXWwTcmZVTkWE2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670124057961}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1702957643082 | 1702956471594 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26206400850555944 | 5uA1FjnUlXZLpbgxuZBw | {"NO": 201.6096071199082, "YES": 1254.482207256416} | 0 | will-the-distilled-stable-diffusion | 2467.099283265048 | Will the distilled Stable Diffusion 2 model be available online before January 1st, 2023? | 1672549200000 | kO3rwXy0svaMf7WXWwTcmZVTkWE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6409638159156705 | True | play | NO | public | 1670124860887 | Edward Kmett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Emad Mostaque recently tweeted about the existence of two improvements to Stable Diffusion 2. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/EMostaque/status/1598131202044866560", "type": "text", "ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672593874776 | 390 | EdwardKmett | 1673172650862 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEdwardKmett%2FShKdrZQOHP.27?alt=media&token=505951a5-0a1e-498c-99c4-8ef6b11a157f | 1 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "kO3rwXy0svaMf7WXWwTcmZVTkWE2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670124861151}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1672528522099 | 1673172648688 | 0.05 |
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