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0.501984450193324 | xZJj6uo3ot9wQKybXH3Z | {"NO": 41.491741319320454, "YES": 639.7275207310001} | 0 | will-1941159478-finish-first-place | 705.4445782517893 | Will @1941159478 finish first place in the Salem/CSPI Forecasting Tournament? | 1690875328651 | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | cpmm-1 | 0.13445864550394618 | 2.735431325635621 | True | play | NO | public | 1670718268711 | Johnny Ten-Numbers | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if I win this tournament, NO otherwise: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/", "class": null,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1690875328651 | 170 | 1941159478 | 1690526575136 | 1.1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Salem/CSPI forecasting tournament", "slug": "salemcpsi-forecasting-tournament", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "c1f5wNm3J11ieMd7sRLq", "createdTime": 1670718268958}] | ["salemcpsi-forecasting-tournament"] | 0.11470868303096858 | 0.5 | 1690526575001 | 0.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28903378134255386 | FmlySHeopN2DBEsCz9rM | {"NO": 100.87341450492463, "YES": 494.5180057995838} | 0.07657644484583237 | will-the-first-ai-to-get-imo-gold-i-be4aa6acf395 | 454.1420860471536 | Will the first AI to get IMO Gold integrate Coq? | 1923524520000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670718366945 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves when an AI first gets IMO Gold. It resolves YES if the system that gets gold uses as a subsystem any piece of code from the Coq community, including any code from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "coq", "type": "text", "marks... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.28531032085009206, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 170 | BoltonBailey | 1716644306105 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1670718367139}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670733970497}] | ["imo-grand-challenge", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1716644302427 | 1670734211133 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3825259015605349 | T0nMcD9OQbegKKSRc58x | {"NO": 230.9962644195066, "YES": 7696.326503129196} | 0 | will-destiny-reach-603k-subscribers | 20665.785468677346 | Will Destiny Reach 603K Subscribers By the End Of 2022? | 1672549140000 | wDBYhUbkEXVWOdvIpkXSs712u9o2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9612499801927092 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670718412269 | Lifejacker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves to '", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "' if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Destiny's main Youtube channel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672554086248 | 1090 | Lifejacker | 1710218565010 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj"}] | ["destinygg", "youtube"] | 0.5 | 1672549112001 | 1671216613134 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28363852156609637 | y8OOQMALRmBO9o0dqMz1 | {"NO": 107.32352197366987, "YES": 1700.2205986854296} | 0 | will-destiny-reach-608k-subscribers | 4602.321877683589 | Will Destiny Reach 608K Subscribers By the End Of 2022? | 1672549140000 | wDBYhUbkEXVWOdvIpkXSs712u9o2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4011593047092887 | True | play | NO | public | 1670718464037 | Lifejacker | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves to '", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "' if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Destiny's main Youtube channel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672554080451 | 270 | Lifejacker | 1710218629871 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "YouTube", "slug": "youtube", "groupId": "bbIsp5bNcwHpSK9qu9mj"}] | ["destinygg", "youtube"] | 0.5 | 1672542811415 | 1672442941923 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33175306246518993 | Kwh8JlNy6bb3UgMaXsPc | {"NO": 74.8936742899645, "YES": 333.8745967580227} | 0.10020373519587822 | will-the-first-ai-to-get-imo-gold-i-ffb264477a4e | 313.37321615362805 | Will the first AI to get IMO Gold integrate Isabelle? | 1923524520000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670718486502 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves when an AI first gets IMO Gold. It resolves YES if the system that gets gold uses as a subsystem any piece of code from the Isabelle community, including any code from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "isabelle-prover", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 130 | BoltonBailey | 1708448748958 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670733921748}, {"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1670718486711}, {"name": "T... | ["imo-grand-challenge", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.5 | 1708448748824 | 1670734208891 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5943721384952416 | itDKqBvodNDJZ6zZ8xJB | {"NO": 557.883024487401, "YES": 4793.595666157835} | 0 | will-any-antiai-art-law-be-created | 15167.056424868015 | Will any "Anti-AI art" law be created in any OECD country in 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0.07191780976743158 | 0.3282985554154949 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670718543211 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to \"YES\" if any laws are passed (or judicial rulings made with the force of law) in any OECD country that has the specific intent of hindering generative AI art projects and/or companies. Examples include, but are not limited to:", ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1707146069979 | 2160 | LarsDoucet | 1707146070399 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 2 | 181 | 0 | 8 | 104 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670718543605}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670733841721}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's R... | ["ai", "politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1850069364157594 | 0.5 | 1704085565845 | 1707146062453 | 0.15 | tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23048758164762007 | Du6DWpm6GuU9WT6375XR | {"NO": 502.85151948817565, "YES": 10420.736223533877} | 0 | will-any-antiai-art-law-be-created-49ae84eec213 | 13519.139299776089 | Will any "Anti-AI art" law be created in the USA in 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.799334166661533 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670718666360 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to \"YES\" if any laws are passed (or judicial rulings made with the force of law) in the USA that has the specific intent of hindering generative AI art projects and/or companies. Examples include, but are not limited to:", "type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704261953924 | 1045 | LarsDoucet | 1704302649200 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 2 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670718667187}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670718703536}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Res... | ["us-politics", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704087966840 | 1704302648660 | 0.01 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21245682696825635 | N6CiEjguSCmFdYAhR8yZ | {"NO": 999.5378994851287, "YES": 999.4503468991136} | 0.21247148395633272 | when-will-a-living-human-first-set | 291.31823943455754 | When will a (living) human first set foot on Mars? | 4134002340000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.645136011672111 | False | play | public | 1670719181311 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to whatever year in which a human being sets foot on the surface of the planet Mars and remains alive for at least one minute after arriving. Orbiting doesn't count, nor does landing in a spaceship and taking off again without ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LarsDoucet | 1712511320029 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1670719181540}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104989580}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "m... | ["space", "futurism", "mars"] | 0.2207792207792208 | 1697583497191 | 1712511319424 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7297546281363565 | Us2I7Vh8Wl5Dj70CySv1 | {"NO": 1448.4944709500578, "YES": 19.71982045987941} | 1 | will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-dec-13 | 2148.791005340009 | Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 13, 2022 11:59pm ET? | 1670942040382 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.676946627857396 | True | play | YES | public | 1670734414901 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market was created on Dec 10, 2022 11:50pm ET", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670942040382 | 350 | AmmonLam | 1670941692662 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1670734415132}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1670738505869}] | ["twitter", "sbf"] | 0.5 | 1670941692511 | 1670915782868 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6441537473058014 | p1fk4NqJhtfDQeiAw9AZ | {"NO": 842.858388563677, "YES": 29.847116418240173} | 1 | will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-dec-15-e377e52b8efa | 1134.2858694136698 | Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 15, 2022 11:59pm ET? | 1670942025261 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.305808286442047 | True | play | YES | public | 1670734461609 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market was created on Dec 10, 2022 11:50pm ET", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670942025261 | 270 | AmmonLam | 1670924622128 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1670734461832}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1670738515890}] | ["twitter", "sbf"] | 0.5 | 1670924621969 | 1670915820504 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5443031221690997 | O7sKxn52bSZqD8IO8OR3 | {"NO": 920.100280201067, "YES": 1037.2308774875748} | 0.5144587916319514 | will-the-first-ai-to-get-imo-gold-t | 1300.375808819112 | Will the first AI to get IMO gold tree-search the formal proof space? | 1924991940000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.318226019656642 | False | basic | public | 1670738068039 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves when an AI first gets IMO Gold. It resolves YES if this AI is explicitly coded to do the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "... | BINARY | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1718903373218 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1670738084377}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670738068673}, {"name": "T... | ["ai", "imo-grand-challenge", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.5 | 1707712199962 | 1707684186373 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7680602227995684 | KOqDvYhx6oLW2YJ2KxoF | {"NO": 1030.4195500344447, "YES": 979.6517992687427} | 0.7769386449756296 | will-the-first-ai-to-get-imo-gold-c | 718.9644642339549 | Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero? | 1983830340000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.623871391763057 | False | basic | public | 1670738581937 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves after an AI first gets IMO Gold, when a paper or preprint is first published describing the functioning of the algorithm. It resolves YES if that paper cites the paper ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"A general reinforcement l... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00021578781328457364} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.11165241201918, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1718170290749 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1670738582152}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "c... | ["imo-grand-challenge", "technical-ai-timelines"] | 0.5 | 1718170287578 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0Fc6bEjo7HvKiO8254cc | pepe-vs-yee-daily-fcf54fa3fae4 | 5906.773200792089 | PEPE VS YEE DAILY | 1670907540000 | 2ZR1o4tadeRI26q9TuDqQHA024i1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.635793285954518 | True | basic | 99d304ea8747 | public | 1670738971388 | DoppioFrog | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BE ADVISED, THE FORMAT HAS CHANGED!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "INSTEAD OF BEING DECIDED BY THE MARKET ITSELF, NOW THE OUTCOME WILL BE DECIDED BY ME ASKING A RANDOM DGG'ER IN DGG CHAT AFTER THE MARKET CLOSES TO CHOSE PEPE VS... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670907886164 | 1020 | BettersonMcgee | 1720053161621 | 0 | 35 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "d795e865d7bd", "prob": 0.49549019526272126, "text": "PEPE", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 608.8908914938962, "userId": "2ZR1o4tadeRI26q9TuDqQHA024i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 619.9747799469827, "textFts": "'pepe':1", "contractId": "0Fc6bEjo7HvKiO8254cc", "createdTime": 1670738971388, "probChan... | 1 | 35 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "2ZR1o4tadeRI26q9TuDqQHA024i1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670738971889}] | ["destinygg"] | 1670906987681 | 1670907972481 | {"99d304ea8747": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1385781929422979 | LxOO1PpJcN5hY2Q5yfHL | {"NO": 325.41888545526683, "YES": 2258.4546361700304} | 0 | will-sam-bankmanfried-accept-an-int | 2274.912840604665 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried accept an interview with me before June 2023 | 1685621758556 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9839409420032594 | True | play | NO | public | 1670741418560 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685621758556 | 450 | Alana | 1685610113654 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1670742578962}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1670742580670... | ["sbf", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"] | 0.5 | 1685610113522 | 1685610109205 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.522665970152743 | xcj52fFETafVnIKUnKxW | {"NO": 2271.1058450762825, "YES": 1.5360102684553567} | 1 | will-jodigale-create-5-or-more-mark | 2320.6499829640766 | Will @JodiGale create 5 or more markets by end of 2022? | 1671806507057 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.684231836086165 | True | play | YES | public | 1670743299374 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671806507057 | 90 | CarsonGale | 1671806483801 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1670743299679}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1670744754595}] | ["fun", "gale-family"] | 0.5 | 1671806483610 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7084329936964746 | KYX8vCrRYHcr7fzuoaeX | {"NO": 209.7399826239906, "YES": 198.18334951611166} | 1 | will-i-publish-my-blog-post-about-t | 1463.3953353495453 | Will I publish my blog post about the number 69 this week? | 1671264199409 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7980833743040809 | True | play | YES | public | 1670743396268 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's gonna be a math blog post about math. It's been mostly ready, as all things are, for a month or two. This market is kind of me precommitting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if I hit ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671264199409 | 210 | Conflux | 1671303876151 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670743396587}, {"name": "Chromatic Conflux", "slug": "chromatic-conflux", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "wQid5Rf4igxpDAZYOqIL", "createdTime": 1672519... | ["personal-goals", "chromatic-conflux"] | 0.5 | 1671240790353 | 1671303853852 | 0.72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47743696140787484 | Zj1iI79IGvI4qqL0DT5J | {"NO": 24.527927713572538, "YES": 351.0870493961606} | 0 | will-bengale-create-7-or-more-marke | 321.71702544308886 | Will @BenGale create 7 or more markets by end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8826086640001254 | True | play | NO | public | 1670743602566 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672564970899 | 110 | CarsonGale | 1672559773027 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1670743602874}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1670743908549}] | ["fun", "gale-family"] | 0.5 | 1672559772820 | 1670744221409 | 0.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15504851539392128 | QhvPDI2vGRhczYnCMnAX | {"NO": 931.6989172102654, "YES": 1256.1092821152124} | 0.1198020761944608 | will-the-first-ai-to-get-imo-gold-h | 725.0867595671198 | Will the first AI to get IMO gold have human-coded real quantifier elimination? | 1849561140000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0.6252220016107256 | 9.880693887953775 | False | basic | public | 1670744046438 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tarski-Seidenberg theorem", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarski%E2%80%93Seidenberg_theorem", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " tells us... | BINARY | {"day": 1.249000902703301e-16, "week": 1.249000902703301e-16, "month": 1.249000902703301e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1707855705370 | 2.2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670744047493}, {"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "createdTime": 1670744122470}] | ["ai", "imo-grand-challenge"] | 0.13071062261242924 | 0.5 | 1707855705234 | 1684327462518 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4093724242819972 | ktGkhfxW349NJilHudjA | {"NO": 44.337078270742396, "YES": 2487.1759698826913} | 0 | will-i-publish-at-least-10-blog-pos | 2740.2724840982064 | Will I publish at least 10 blog posts in 2023? | 1704095940000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 3.84773979655831e-16 | 2.950008063458642 | True | play | NO | public | 1670744641130 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the number of blog posts that I publish on my blog, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Chromatic Conflux,", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://tinyurl.com/confluxblog", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704096171989 | 370 | Conflux | 1704096172328 | 0.1 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670744641994}, {"name": "Chromatic Conflux", "slug": "chromatic-conflux", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "wQid5Rf4igxpDAZYOqIL", "createdTime": 1672519... | ["personal-goals", "chromatic-conflux", "blogs", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09938460831557795 | 0.5 | 1704091445523 | 1699246370190 | 0.01 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 |
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