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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.31744536422192215 | amt8rrLRWTH7KJALEsuE | {"NO": 17.7065981640028, "YES": 2267.277538562301} | 0 | will-carson-physically-touch-bosco | 2202.722461437699 | Will Carson physically touch Bosco or Mozzie at any point during the 2022 Florida trip? | 1671804680073 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.642563151910152 | True | play | NO | public | 1670745009227 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671804680073 | 90 | CarsonGale | 1671804654491 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Gale 2022 Florida Trip", "slug": "gale-2022-florida-trip", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "MQnOZtbBUz6m7UflMSFF", "createdTime": 1670745009404}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 167... | ["gale-2022-florida-trip", "gale-family"] | 0.5 | 1671804654336 | 1670873107444 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4576534318084824 | MapXBbMSlUXQlyPX3Jga | {"NO": 7.574430333678492, "YES": 1364.6076718939064} | 0 | will-jodi-complete-at-least-2-somer | 1332.114550328316 | Will Jodi complete at least 2 somersaults during the Gale 2022 Florida Trip? | 1672618729208 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.727515271394285 | True | play | NO | public | 1670745518885 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be completed in my presence. Sufficiently credible attempts at a somersault will also result in a \"yes\" resolution. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672618729208 | 90 | CarsonGale | 1672618719307 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Gale 2022 Florida Trip", "slug": "gale-2022-florida-trip", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "MQnOZtbBUz6m7UflMSFF", "createdTime": 1670745519098}, {"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 167... | ["gale-2022-florida-trip", "gale-family"] | 0.5 | 1672618719196 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6532116437135822 | caKmeEkkoNwfloCVKcaT | {"NO": 1090.960146335277, "YES": 194.48024597838042} | 1 | will-i-work-out-in-the-gym-before-i | 1931.589529822685 | Will I work out in the gym before I head home for winter break? | 1671293071490 | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.330615341076502 | True | play | YES | public | 1670746939391 | Kaivu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved yes if I have a gym workout (likely weights) before Dec 18th. I have not lifted this entire semester. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671293071490 | 370 | Kaivu | 1671293328839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670746940167}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1671293063337 | 1671293188881 | 0.71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4488771796105792 | I6emKnTZjtrmGYbRd1VZ | {"NO": 26.04357476058182, "YES": 613.5304292609688} | 0 | did-arbbot-lose-more-than-m250-on-e | 558.1362374056978 | Did ArbBot lose more than M$250 on England vs France match? | 1670965184065 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7868684141747604 | True | play | NO | public | 1670748155185 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It looks like ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "GYwh8DpU6tS0uY9dx8bGWczxZM02", "label": "ArbitrageBot"}}, {"text": " has lost over M$500 on the following group of 4 markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "conten... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670965184065 | 110 | Jenny | 1670884910757 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1670748155456}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670748... | ["trading-bots", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670884910649 | 1670883624655 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4002925976078063 | M89N89zTZIA0Flwx1p6o | {"NO": 324.1844600828845, "YES": 332.80881465579813} | 0.39400655575966714 | will-destiny-hit-a-900-or-above-2nd | 728.4910697875089 | Will Destiny hit a 900 (or above) 2nd try? | 1670821140000 | k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.109741499322107 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670749700411 | Butidigress | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only for the 2nd ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "attempt of this stream (december 11th)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market for 1st attempt: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "itali... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670824543962 | 330 | Butidigress | 1670816674691 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XmJ94Qz8SgF05tqF6WJS9d0nGUVmZ24o0-qBH=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670749700925}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670809174618 | 1670816649764 | 0.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18849832170387387 | eL0KNNuaWGdRtqIQVpcn | {"NO": 255.51619671498008, "YES": 4151.133024876641} | 0 | planecrash-qvq-xrygunz-fubj-noebtnv | 4450.914457236652 | [planecrash] Qvq Xrygunz fubj Noebtnvy n gehr vzntr bs Puryvnk naq vgf crbcyr orvat qrfgeblrq? | 1675854542273 | NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2 | cpmm-1 | 1.781524264821294 | True | play | NO | public | 1670751048212 | Josh | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the scry image was true and not misleading, and Cheliax and most of its people were destroyed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the scry image was misleading or f... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675854563822 | 470 | josh | 1675854526251 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c | 0 | 24 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1670751048490}, {"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1670809216225}] | ["glowfic", "planecrash"] | 0.5 | 1675854526113 | 1670757027443 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5179273880605114 | wJ97bpq6GB0zjjE4tA1B | {"NO": 102.55843640980507, "YES": 648.2172605137446} | 0 | jojothamofo-will-unironically-call | 663.4992342170497 | JoJoThaMoFo will unironically call Destiny a Gusano either on stream, in chat, on twitter or anywhere else within the week | 1671400740000 | eLHSoyzNjCewPefeKgNu97WUS163 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6116809871828157 | True | play | NO | public | 1670754374934 | Athanatos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JoJoThaMoFo is a Cuban streamer that has expressed interest to chat with Destiny about his obvious anti black sentiment (Destiny hates seeing black creators succeeding FRFR)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671452491998 | 290 | Athanatos154 | 1671391441349 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2TtyBM-jEzl-zp8sS02aYoORQ6U3Z3PVQfhPkR=s96-c | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "eLHSoyzNjCewPefeKgNu97WUS163", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670754375505}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1671391441244 | 0.15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3851771478127885 | wzu1pnLcxWs6Uy9da3ZU | {"NO": 943.6447809167543, "YES": 565.0491022637055} | 1 | will-i-be-approved-for-permanent-we | 2154.224947679959 | Will I be approved for permanent welfare? | 1678489140000 | YMaQL7ttteQSvFH4QPdxjMna1OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5265349983329407 | True | play | YES | public | 1670756715283 | Martoua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Expected time of result/resolution: Febuary 8th 2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will my permament welfare application be granted by t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678540541734 | 870 | Martinitis | 1678541059367 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "YMaQL7ttteQSvFH4QPdxjMna1OT2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1670771779416}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "YMaQL7ttteQSvFH4QPdxjMna1OT2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1670756715592}] | ["personal-goals", "health"] | 0.5 | 1678487595615 | 1678541054403 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4583929587710341 | dFVImJJPz9UJsKH2uwo0 | {"NO": 160.58214344078652, "YES": 1659.2437898201326} | 0 | will-destiny-have-a-debate-with-ano | 3622.4131799428023 | Will Destiny have a debate with another content creator about the "Loud Black Zoomer Streamers" remark by the end of 2022? | 1672559940000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1641608317089391 | True | play | NO | public | 1670760245235 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be a debate. Not simply a conversation. Contention is key.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672567427982 | 550 | johnleoks | 1710218586065 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 1 | 24 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672341967178 | 1670864861665 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
USrNBJVCR5Zz0EadsoUg | which-of-destinys-twitter-accounts | 0 | Which of Destiny's Twitter accounts will be unbanned first? | 1670760748058 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1670760350666 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will go till the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accounts taken from: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Destin... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670760748058 | 360 | AlexLiesman | 1670760352611 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3f099e0fe6e3", "prob": 0.125, "text": "omnidestiny", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.252100321353806, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 29.764702249476645, "textFts": "'omnidestini':1", "contractId": "USrNBJVCR5Zz0EadsoUg", "createdTime": 1670760350666, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w... | 1 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1670760351129}] | ["destinygg"] | 1670760350666 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ImoL5MubfvFhJYZMoZFR | which-of-destinys-twitter-account-w | 4688.684707925819 | Which of Destiny's Twitter accounts will be unbanned first? | 1672691774227 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.626751759472635 | True | basic | b1032fa9773f | public | 1670761168431 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at the end of 2023 if none of the accounts are unbanned.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672691774227 | 1020 | AlexLiesman | 1710218546232 | 0 | 24 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3cc699854279", "prob": 0.0004442612452902406, "text": "Steven_Bonnell", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0011655466197809012, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 2.6223957748712197, "textFts": "'bonnel':2 'steven':1", "contractId": "ImoL5MubfvFhJYZMoZFR", "createdTime": 1670761168431,... | 24 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "✖️ Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}] | ["destinygg", "twitter"] | 1672691772013 | 1672691777864 | {"b1032fa9773f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8402775935128699 | tfyO6hmDE01EWJsw0KEi | {"NO": 2042.6861981336128, "YES": 748.8937318289957} | 1 | will-romania-join-schengen-before-2 | 1874.1286808944606 | Will Romania join Schengen before 2026? | 1716540950518 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.067007133330947 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670761409083 | Chocobo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Austria stopped Romania", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/12/08/austria-blocks-schengen-accession-of-romania-and-bulgaria-while-croatia-gets-green-light", "class": null, "target"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716540950518 | 1000 | Chocobo | 1716540950518 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670761409621}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1705169751747 | 1716456430630 | 0.93 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8161926641635 | hQ8SAjWwrPkmhwra3RMA | {"NO": 1558.2723244213832, "YES": 845.2572597419096} | 1 | will-bulgaria-join-schengen-before | 1725.3423777587554 | Will Bulgaria join Schengen before 2026? | 1716540972293 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | cpmm-1 | 0.1366713057858974 | 9.848635409136518 | True | basic | YES | public | 1670761517593 | Chocobo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Austria and the Netherlands stopped Bulgaria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/12/08/austria-blocks-schengen-accession-of-romania-and-bulgaria-while-croatia-gets-green-light", "c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1716540972293 | 1000 | Chocobo | 1716598988805 | 2.2 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670761518321}, {"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "6awvfZlo4qRHe9uh3mPR6EASFSi1", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1670764620759}] | ["politics-default", "european-union"] | 0.13194671059938023 | 0.5 | 1705169747472 | 1716598987418 | 0.89 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19452735645152416 | 3o2pmvPrZMBTVdQ5hH0S | {"NO": 345.79312990842345, "YES": 1750.9901739790807} | 0 | will-the-manifold-website-be-fast-a | 2110.2596986082763 | Will the Manifold website be fast at the end of February 2023? | 1677646800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 1.3747548934956404 | True | play | NO | public | 1670766365221 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if at the end of February I am no longer frustrated by all the various lag issues Manifold is currently subject to. It doesn't have to be blazing fast, it just needs to be comparable to other websites like Twitter.", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677648483798 | 510 | IsaacKing | 1677684590415 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670766365652}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1677645686642 | 1677684587913 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5003444198158108 | ysO6J1b2gcNyKaPpwWK0 | {"NO": 139.32380495674073, "YES": 160.1703076632854} | 0 | will-quin69s-character-die-in-hardc | 66 | Will Quin69's Character die in hardcore league this stream session? (11Dec2022) | 1670810340000 | 3AEy292BXnVzv0qNRCrd1GJ5jQZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0521549075795367 | True | play | NO | public | 1670766915417 | Pherret | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/quin69", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.twitch.tv/quin69", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " stream is live now for 50 minutes at the time of this poll", "type": "text... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670813610019 | 150 | Pherret | 1710218631275 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi"}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["gaming", "destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1670777681659 | 1670813601437 | 0.47 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5932994079801936 | GKBQ69w1XhbVbTfZQn2S | {"NO": 241.1765797469259, "YES": 219.52597036987063} | 1 | will-i-think-any-llm-tool-excluding | 141.43098028102096 | Will I think any LLM tool (excluding copilot) has been useful by the end of January 2023? | 1675209540000 | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5076062578534162 | True | play | YES | public | 1670768211661 | Kaivu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved yes if I think that an LLM tool is useful in roughly the same way that I think copilot or stable diffusion is useful now. Doesn't count if another coding assistant or image generation tool is also useful.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676185162010 | 230 | Kaivu | 1672114377945 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 3 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670768212275}, {"name": "Change My Mind", "slug": "change-my-mind", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "kzzraVgQ4jzw7XmLUZDv", "createdTime": 1670773502735... | ["technology-default", "change-my-mind", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1672114377780 | 0.62 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15207863010339648 | BLqvRUsAtKNmlpNaYbuA | {"NO": 790.0776383349306, "YES": 2486.0138680297505} | 0 | will-i-be-able-to-ask-an-ai-assista | 4201.124439635218 | Will I be able to ask an AI assistant to 3d print a lid for a bottle by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8301672469927035 | True | play | NO | public | 1670768949736 | Kaivu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved yes if it can prompt me with all the measurements that it needs me to take- I can take pictures if prompted to.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example bottle:", "type": "text"}]}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704094232854 | 970 | Kaivu | 1704094233553 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c | 1 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670782153512}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670768950484}, {"name": "Technical A... | ["technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1702852117645 | 1704039841492 | 0.05 | bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8646193487516937 | dEyUPUvEvJMsB8hxy2as | {"NO": 3814.274744990765, "YES": 209.15425874641903} | 1 | would-you-rather-get-a-million-doll | 4375.987133025661 | Would you rather get a million dollars, or have all countries become democratic and peaceful for the next 50 years? | 1704085140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8957440564061421 | True | play | YES | public | 1670772219354 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\r", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy Yes if you would get a million dollars", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Buy No if you would get world peace for the next 50 years", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704088629575 | 390 | AmmonLam | 1704088629916 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Misleading Title", "slug": "misleading-title", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "XgaJI0Vl00egR0t3LjXC", "createdTime": 1670786224788}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1670786202084}, {... | ["free-money", "misleading-title", "nonpredictive-profits", "free-mana", "controversial-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | False | 1702864111998 | 1673135903727 | False | 0.99 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44480556676037225 | nq99APGid5HpwGVM9fWY | {"NO": 102.50578979891907, "YES": 21477.121759040958} | 0 | will-there-be-an-upset-at-the-semif | 27264.175442238404 | Will there be an upset at the semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | 1671051375891 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.257466422763633 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670774236361 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Argentina and France are favorities to make it to the final. Resolve YES if Croatia or Morocco make it to the final.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671051375891 | 1230 | egroj | 1671051369437 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 56 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670774236678}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1671051369287 | 1670869792563 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7077377593809769 | 4aHXNJqu3aralUU4iICz | {"NO": 1074.3249340192133, "YES": 925.9140606561873} | 0.737514227087979 | by-2100-will-at-least-1-billion-peo | 6251.270871134545 | By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive? | 4102462740000 | SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1 | cpmm-1 | 0.11172578319043984 | 9.22757575446549 | False | basic | public | 1670774928207 | Steven | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is meant as an unconditional reference point for @IsaacKing 's series of questions about temperature:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/conditional-on-at-l... | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.1181832516358026, "platformFee": 2.1181832516358026, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StevenK | 1713865854124 | 1.6 | 45 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1670774928780}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104669275}, {"name": "Human pop... | ["world-default", "futurism", "human-population-crisis"] | 0.14560709291806048 | 0.5 | 1713865850762 | 1694084913240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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