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0.8423988138418907 | 886l2IURsWlTg1fKdqJG | {"NO": 618.3225654222165, "YES": 204.92852636751275} | 1 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-anyone-ente-4ab0eca05559 | 5731.46528259528 | By the end of 2023, will anyone enter the top 5 followed accounts who was not within the top 20 followed accounts when this market was created? | 1704085200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6996113077930217 | True | play | YES | public | 1670859214319 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The top 20 followed accounts as of market creation are:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FjnDEZ_Cb3u.31?alt=media&t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1706396465593 | 270 | IsaacKing | 1706396465883 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 7 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670859214889}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128810957}, {"name": "... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.5 | 1700190117687 | 1706395849630 | 0.94 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.23254054898329055 | j18dRUNBMyKqKjxxYV4V | {"NO": 425.27857082346884, "YES": 2963.9159216880003} | 0 | will-manifold-be-the-subject-of-ext-177858af974e | 3696.8119942021494 | Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 10,000 people by the end of 2023? | 1706376872683 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9005171436824946 | True | play | NO | public | 1670860200761 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some examples that could resolve this to YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Twitter thread that goes viral about how ina... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.041664709311548094} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1713221861367 | 690 | IsaacKing | 1706376872683 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 16 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670860201235}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132330668}, {"name": "... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.5 | 1704072606948 | 1706366174534 | 0.04 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.09087022063273245 | tVNOrZDgqEWVW19eZQJh | {"NO": 418.4182753737776, "YES": 1224.781643877391} | 0 | are-health-benefits-of-listening-to | 1220.1989497513678 | Are health benefits of listening to A=432 music compared to A=440 strongly evidenced by the start of 2024? | 1704049200000 | qvT4hOacMIWhcdvArbNOHHzx5fx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3816693385820114 | True | play | NO | public | 1670860573686 | degtorad | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Where A=432 means being tuned in a way the A above middle C has the same pitch as a 432 Hz sine wave.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can probably suppose the music being in 12 equal divis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704804159655 | 490 | degtorad | 1710208048772 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 13 | [{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🎷 Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d"}, {"name": "Conspiracy Theories... | ["science-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "music-f213cbf1eab5", "conspiracy-theories"] | 0.10645279738238404 | 0.5 | 1703263729726 | 0.03 | qvT4hOacMIWhcdvArbNOHHzx5fx1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4267548764487559 | fEpZeuvMNFYC8lkSB4SN | {"NO": 105.07264438636571, "YES": 232.5247737353119} | 0.25172215547574783 | will-freddie-deboer-make-any-post-o | 163.89055054436326 | Will Freddie DeBoer make any post on Twitter by the end of 2024? | 1735707600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1670860602769 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/the-twitter-files-and-writing-for", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/the-twitter-files-and-writing-for"... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | IsaacKing | 1695620076339 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670860603499}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1695620076039 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.13884871373741656 | ZmvDj5L43MCjL22l9PId | {"NO": 371.23780707321987, "YES": 937.7589291527497} | 0 | will-xqc-get-the-run-this-session-2-1f8d4e46a359 | 1626.9731579498282 | Will xQc get the run this session (20:38 ingame time ) | 1670897626205 | JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8355043101503261 | True | play | NO | public | 1670882519534 | PryingMind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-22 4:38 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670897626205 | 450 | PryingMind | 1670897620721 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1670882520353}] | ["gaming"] | 0.5 | 1670897620388 | 1670882607000 | 0.11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MzweEJz59ZC4BWPwXkoI | who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-arg-8ce9e2a53739 | 367.7693882837924 | Who will be Man of the Match in Argentina vs Croatia? | 1670961600000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.729470461185471 | True | play | 498aedde0d93 | public | 1670882583675 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670975727888 | 1619.9999999999995 | Manifold | 1670971927258 | 0 | 20 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "122bc1642a42", "prob": 0.058846348905740906, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7915450154701934, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.659502163991645, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MzweEJz59ZC4BWPwXkoI", "createdTime": 1670882584018, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670882592125}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1670961268409 | 1670971925253 | {"498aedde0d93": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VTSNbRqMGKTida9rySEI | who-will-be-man-of-the-match-in-fra-47fe2b9e0483 | 320.1505460753101 | Who will be Man of the Match in France vs Morocco? | 1671048000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.755268520709277 | True | play | aeab4cb0d781 | public | 1670882617984 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whoever ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fifa tweets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/FIFAWorldCup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the player of the match. ", "type"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671106291456 | 1299.9999999999998 | Manifold | 1671058830925 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6e2dcead1a7c", "prob": 0.09080667742937464, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.785640702657681, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.878559697653984, "textFts": "", "contractId": "VTSNbRqMGKTida9rySEI", "createdTime": 1670882618373, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "2022 World Cup Tournament", "slug": "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "rOQtIgyyYgsiCDTTZ8v1", "createdTime": 1670882618244}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAK... | ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 1671047963167 | 1671058827566 | {"aeab4cb0d781": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.9172107860287453 | dvb9c4lzbgQm10Uj0ZkX | {"NO": 1624.7322781321914, "YES": 201.7903796080243} | 1 | will-manifold-allow-users-to-log-in | 1544.8983923210442 | Will Manifold allow users to log in without having a Google account by the end of 2023? | 1671557383285 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.9269035318456575 | True | play | YES | public | 1670884091651 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671557383285 | 270 | IsaacKing | 1671539210779 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670884092134}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1671508734194 | 1671539202436 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.39743271241178874 | RabkyCcJliIWe5oTLNLr | {"NO": 256.49839701204587, "YES": 4729.999999999998} | 0 | in-2023-will-the-city-of-austin-mak | 3880 | In 2023, will the city of Austin make a law that requires airbnb to obtain a city of Austin license to host guests before allowing users to make host accounts? | 1704088800000 | ug4JhYVKbtaBcV17pUosHTNpkRi2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8630549684591102 | True | play | NO | public | 1670885700905 | Chris Canal | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is already required to have an airbnb license, but there doesn't seem to be much enforcement, and anyone in Austin can make a host account on vrbo or airbnb. This law would create enforcement by restricting airbnb to be required to verify licens... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704445978392 | 850 | ChrisCanal | 1704445978610 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi8zVC-m6GzbOC7D457ZFPbmBNAxuIyLEm_7Vz3Qq8=s96-c | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "ug4JhYVKbtaBcV17pUosHTNpkRi2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1670885701460}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737231296},... | ["politics-default", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703301196973 | 1704445975515 | 0.03 | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2225433265885664 | K8ra8tj7FgrDQ7abaskb | {"NO": 174.69998905540632, "YES": 402.146697049427} | 0 | a-friend-of-mine-works-on-adobes-st | 359.7857062962642 | A friend of mine works on Adobe's strategy team, specializing in digital media design. By the end of 2023, will their position at Adobe be negatively affected financially due to AI-generated art? | 1704095940000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3194469031226 | True | play | NO | public | 1670886029578 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704132132712 | 230 | CarsonGale | 1704132133058 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670886029949}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "createdTime": 1673584907256}... | ["ai", "carsons-important-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1685329659013 | 1684946730154 | 0.11 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7147303553219134 | LU7JyzvryLFz2M0PcWtu | {"NO": 209.86500662381692, "YES": 112.25273261237456} | 1 | will-xqc-throw-the-next-god-seed | 246.5309709757753 | Will xQc throw the next God Seed ( NETHER AND BASTION Within 9 min) | 1670893664469 | JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7782638428880544 | True | play | YES | public | 1670886254884 | PryingMind | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "( NETHER AND BASTION )", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 12, 5:08pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will xQc throw the next God Seed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will xQc throw the... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670893664469 | 170 | PryingMind | 1670889737878 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1670886255633}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1670889737719 | 0.82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.1502669506347445 | uiX5t8fQtuEGjJaTo3T5 | {"NO": 882.9052182729964, "YES": 1474.6429377669238} | 0.09574160848973688 | paliens-are-the-20202022-pentagon-u | 740.7210533516873 | P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way? | 4099852740000 | F17OTZ4k5tOkDJaLzSqMhc9lEBs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.95143941086461 | False | basic | public | 1670888740437 | Marcus Aurelius | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentagon_UFO_videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentagon_UFO_videos", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MarcusAurelius | 1697163584825 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSocrates%2FjJNH5M3RX0.19?alt=media&token=1f96ca73-bd59-4ec9-9f01-65d9a9c06d95 | 19 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "F17OTZ4k5tOkDJaLzSqMhc9lEBs1", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1670888740729}, {"name": "UFO", "slug": "ufo", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "vH5f3KKDAejaSUPOduOZ", "createdTime": 1671476499387}] | ["science-default", "ufo"] | 0.10416320145359581 | 0.5 | 1697163584565 | 1685043535233 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.349921861736515 | RKFww7dqQGeQjtxxActH | {"NO": 819.836579720846, "YES": 1364.7325660665983} | 0.24434727699478856 | will-new-zealand-allow-any-nuclear | 705.3509616399118 | Will New Zealand allow any nuclear bombs or nuclear reactors inside its territory before 2030? | 1893474000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.677750607636842 | False | basic | public | 1670888998992 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_nuclear-free_zone", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_nuclear-free_zone", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0051980436502363225} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.218657471487985, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1718167997718 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1670890976555}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1670888999203}, {"name"... | ["nuclear-risk", "nz-politics", "new-zealand"] | 0.5 | 1718167994554 | 1671735135908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44683388616032055 | SZFOQoUOAJRHIs0SQEI4 | {"NO": 154.18826230086398, "YES": 5259.908441011346} | 0 | will-the-uk-sign-a-free-trade-agree | 15872.188242249435 | Will the UK sign a free trade agreement with India by the end of 2023? | 1704085140000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1528084862661827 | True | basic | NO | public | 1670889017833 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The sixth round of negotiations under the current Tory government has recently commenced.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704085230999 | 1105 | BTE | 1704104100718 | 0 | 1 | 86 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "India", "slug": "india", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Y2J00UcVhr3wKq2lAOAy", "createdTime": 1670889026226}, {"name": "Prime Millennial", "slug": "prime-millennial", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "mGhR4kc3kdcFDeim8Xmp", "createdTime": 1670889018038}, {"name": "U... | ["prime-millennial", "india", "uk-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704061548731 | 1704104100090 | 0.02 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5430319375513247 | b6RlPcR2iCcPKa0rAbTS | {"NO": 20.38749550286616, "YES": 2163.7531704376424} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-add-nongoogle-ec2eb1660ede | 3242.416475696891 | Will Manifold Markets add non-google sign ups on Windows desktop website before 2024? | 1712193267494 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2713628266728803 | True | play | NO | public | 1670889217847 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it is possible to create a Manifold account without a Google account, on a web browser on a Windows desktop, by end of 2023. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12940957552628204} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1712193267494 | 310 | jack | 1712195281989 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1670889218525}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1712193252941 | 1712195281201 | 0.01 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2702616113936604 | cUqwLeqxHHh47ISno4WP | {"NO": 255.94437724843934, "YES": 464.149538624539} | 0 | is-alana-credibly-accused-of-incorr | 641.4873767978223 | Is Alana credibly accused of incorrect, fraudulent, or misjudged market resolution on Manifold Markets by the end of 2023? | 1704067140000 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4877254377537092 | True | play | NO | public | 1670889440658 | Alana | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704072772314 | 310 | Alana | 1704072772666 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1670893587434}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "... | ["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704066845936 | 1676814538245 | 0.17 | ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1441787488378592 | 5Rej0NWb1nw2QYUJSJ2F | {"NO": 1282.9013468228607, "YES": 2661.7091143429684} | 0.07510091130604461 | will-aigenerated-child-porn-be-lega | 5800.672938859413 | Will AI-generated child porn be legalized in the US before 2030? | 1893474000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.624656720790494 | False | basic | public | 1670889480842 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be clearly legal, not just in a grey area that hasn't been tested in the courts. (i.e. in a similar status to adult pornography.)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 0.0014423404570848009} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6498097736315296, "platformFee": 0.1400546090116431, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1495 | IsaacKing | 1718703115797 | 0 | 1 | 108 | 0 | 51 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1670906360602}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1670889481345}, {"name": "Politics", "slug"... | ["us-politics", "ai", "politics-default", "pornography"] | 0.5 | 1718703112687 | 1702665714948 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09429356789523693 | W77Won1nAAO24ZAE5r8e | {"NO": 945.5861582860425, "YES": 1301.3565429540126} | 0.0703281365808498 | will-pedophilia-become-a-recognized | 448.8405045428215 | Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030? | 1893474000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0.07286084205835039 | 10.260237757323079 | False | basic | public | 1670890295370 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Doesn't need to be legally recognized as such, just socially.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1688130386362 | 1.1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 9 | [] | [] | 0.13081609520758913 | 0.5 | 1688130385244 | 1672253798137 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.709334430300643 | iXSQ8zzPTvhDPFKq57Z2 | {"NO": 6290.719971235857, "YES": 68.22927193336136} | 1 | will-messi-score-a-goal-vs-croatia | 9290.373303429193 | Will Messi score a goal vs Croatia? | 1670961407541 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9819788901479796 | True | play | YES | public | 1670890570721 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All goals count including those from a penalty shootout.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670961407541 | 470 | Manifold | 1670973345887 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670890571167}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670961313711 | 1670973341915 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22666832700819214 | 5aUbicyxh9dkkD5OdQkj | {"NO": 367.963283411591, "YES": 794.4369486455311} | 0 | will-france-vs-morocco-go-to-a-pena | 970.8083458061006 | Will France vs Morocco go to a penalty shootout? | 1671048000000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2139216263417218 | True | play | NO | public | 1670890725550 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if the semifinal on Wednesday is decided by a penalty shootout at the end of the game. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671106076655 | 450 | Manifold | 1671047426127 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1670890726117}] | ["2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1671047425949 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8199177692671487 | wyP81OTSoXb6EbtQuNu4 | {"NO": 7943.672355570596, "YES": 107.08405914945615} | 1 | did-caroline-snitch | 7928.612526060648 | Did Caroline snitch? | 1671887606215 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1332726117606673 | True | play | YES | public | 1670891089942 | GeorgeVii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671887606215 | 250 | GeorgeVii | 1671887592312 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1670891099148}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1670891090648}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sb... | ["law-order", "ftx", "sbf"] | 0.5 | 1671887591076 | 1671886021581 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7816046951511073 | vQ2mrE78WTZjKcVUfvzf | {"NO": 223.41191014875037, "YES": 119.4742419077669} | 1 | will-sbf-be-freed-from-incarceratio | 148.93824069872844 | Will SBF be freed from incarceration before the technological singularity? | 1671834036014 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2578259422415003 | True | play | YES | public | 1670891161821 | Matthew Barnett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is freed from incarceration, including being released on bail, before the start of the year during which the technological singularity begins. For the purpose of this question, the year of the tech... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671834036014 | 150 | MatthewBarnett | 1671759569257 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1670891162582}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1670891264294}] | ["technology-default", "crime"] | 0.5 | 1671759569094 | 0.87 |
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