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will-twitter-pay-fines-in-the-eu-by
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Will Twitter pay fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024?
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Will Brian Johnson ("Liver King") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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cpmm-1
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Will Logan Paul (media personality and wrestler) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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10.586609649448985
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Scrooge McDuck
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Will Jake Paul (media personality and boxer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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play
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Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
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cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
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Scrooge McDuck
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Will the Everyday Astronaut go to the moon by the end of 2024?
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1671341780774
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By the end of 2023, will the largest self-referential/"fun" market have had at least 400 traders?
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4.651201517703631
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play
YES
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Isaac King
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Will the moon still exist on March 15th, 2039?
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cpmm-1
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False
basic
public
1671343159527
Isaac King
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What is the outcome of a traditional game of chess with optimal play?
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Isaac King
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By the end of 2023, will enough of the Magic: The Gathering community be on Manifold that I feel it's a useful resource for making my career decisions?
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play
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Isaac King
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29975.684513128108
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cpmm-1
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1671344987157
Lars Doucet
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Is the "Wolf and Sheep" chess variant a forced win for white?
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basic
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Isaac King
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play
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1671345610556
Scrooge McDuck
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I made a bunch of scandal markets about various people. I plan to make lots more. But it's possible one of them tries to make me take it down, with a legal threat. Many of them are rich, and could lash out if they wanted to.", "type": "text"}]},...
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will-there-stop-being-50-states-in
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Will there stop being 50 states in the USA before 2032?
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1671345903123
Isaac King
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will-curvebeams-ai-ossview-software
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Will Curvebeam's AI OssView software receive FDA 510(k) clearance by December 1, 2023?
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zRMxfUt51RcEIcZkuw6ySiNJYBE3
cpmm-1
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3.2389205851738203
True
play
NO
public
1671346087871
Algorithmovigilance
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algorithmovigilance
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will-anumana-receive-fda-510k-clear
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Will Anumana receive FDA 510(k) clearance for their early hypertension detection AI by December 1, 2023?
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cpmm-1
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4.251327034813633
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play
YES
public
1671346411752
Algorithmovigilance
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anumana's algorithm is a precise, non-invasive screening tool that addresses an unmet need for earlier diagnosis of patients with pulmonary hypertension, which may otherwise go unnoticed until the disease has advanced, delaying treatment initiation...
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algorithmovigilance
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will-potrero-receive-fda-510k-clear
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cpmm-1
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2.6646029599663126
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play
NO
public
1671347033543
Algorithmovigilance
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algorithmovigilance
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Will Coinbase be the #1/2 exchange in 2025?
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cpmm-1
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play
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1671349501301
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basic
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1671349526823
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1671349975514
Algorithmovigilance
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will-teslas-marketcap-be-above-500b
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Will Tesla's marketcap be above $500B at the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
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2.414486231527922
True
play
NO
public
1671351378894
Marcus Abramovitch
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Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?
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cpmm-1
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9.806535186492948
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basic
public
1671354461554
Bolton Bailey
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Will Destiny reunban Hamster Hawk in 2022
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CANCEL
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1671358872102
Dxcomx
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tier-5-callins-who-first
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CANCEL
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1671359796945
Butidigress
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will-turkey-be-a-member-state-of-th
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Will Turkey be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
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cpmm-1
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Nick el Chen
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will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor
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Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?
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cpmm-1
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1671363261123
Dustin
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which-team-will-win-the-2026-fifa-w-e6c8e9e08427
14
Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1671389151594
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.977456264052392
True
play
CANCEL
public
1671388764699
JAAM
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1671388855328
1671389617911
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will-destidarko-get-banned-in-2022
21296.986534406453
Will DestiDarko get banned in 2022?
1672531140000
O5ZcwsbGcIcYTvvertFlpEBwBH72
cpmm-1
0
0.3398654912148462
True
basic
NO
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1671388944355
Dxcomx
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1672541333887
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Dxcomx
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120
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1672529146816
1671582372425
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by-the-end-of-2023-will-my-alltime
10189.818266992745
By the end of 2023, will my all-time MM winnings exceed my losses?
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qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
cpmm-1
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0.5639565586038735
True
basic
YES
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1671389338092
M.H.
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1704126227408
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MilfordHammerschmidt
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https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
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https://firebasestorage.…9ca-abc885d8f9fd
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1704080225712
1671398192008
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qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
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{"NO": 5069.796893570362, "YES": 636.768391545001}
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will-twitter-allow-promotion-of-oth
14432.22725444853
Will Twitter allow promotion of other social media platforms again on February 1?
1675238340000
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
cpmm-1
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0.7698945457665389
True
basic
YES
public
1671389568506
Conflux
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1675262125738
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https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
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[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
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1675237799922
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0.97
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0.14476583536476287
will-twitter-prohibit-substack-link
17894.137629911475
Will Twitter prohibit Substack links by May 2023?
1682910120000
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
cpmm-1
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0.30555706221476364
True
basic
CANCEL
public
1671390146073
MP
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Twitter prohibits links to Substack like they just did with Facebook, Instagram, Mastodon, Truth and so on, this market solves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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1683379273118
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1710451932970
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[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
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121
[Pale lights] Is Yong married to Tupoc?
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cpmm-1
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4.6065339312688405
True
play
NO
public
1671390605214
Theodore Ehrenborg
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1697725018164
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TheodoreEhrenborg
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will-all-previous-champions-of-the
721.7036442111386
Will all previous champions of the World Cup qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1782878340000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
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9.636652686731276
False
basic
public
1671391688019
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if all these countries qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup: Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, Spain, and England. Resolves NO if any in that list fail to qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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egroj
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will-a-previous-winner-of-the-world-0c2e4c1fa9ca
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Will a previous winner of the World Cup win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
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9.722042930356757
False
basic
public
1671391788189
JAAM
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will-messi-retire-before-the-end-of
11989.810992076325
Will Messi retire before the end of 2023?
1704049067221
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cpmm-1
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1.3398089644137898
True
play
NO
public
1671391838303
tofu
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will-trump-get-banned-from-twitter
3998.144787227199
Will Trump get banned from Twitter by end of 2023?
1704085140000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
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1.1624251323838455
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NO
public
1671392458623
Jenny
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by-the-end-of-2023-what-will-be-the-d2446f9ca439
6590.6379122713215
By the end of 2023, what will be the size of my largest loss on any single manifold market?
1704088800000
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cpmm-1
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0.5932268194753285
True
play
MKT
public
1671393218771
M.H.
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Defined as largest total reported loss by manifold over the lifetime of the market on Jan 1st, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
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1704126615315
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MilfordHammerschmidt
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0.11333333333333333
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0.5664692902868137
in-5-years-will-i-think-the-org-con
615.8420023880003
In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?
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cpmm-1
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9.684465547934913
False
basic
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1671394924731
Garrett Baker
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will-there-be-at-least-three-new-hi
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Will there be at least three new high profile AI systems unveiled by the end of 2023?
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cpmm-1
0.001865993119557754
0.5265021341363103
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basic
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1671394997119
Isaac King
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1703919115595
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cpmm-1
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Marcus Aurelius
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Will any of the Big Four of the FTX case be confirmed dead by the end of 2023?
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qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
cpmm-1
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0.561203388130604
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1671399002856
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will-the-bengals-beat-the-buccaneer
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Will the Bengals beat the Buccaneers?
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Who will be the next nominee to the Supreme Court of Brazil?
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cpmm-multi-1
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5.018925873531059
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What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?
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Will Bitcoin price be above $16740 at Dec 19 11am ET?
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Will Bitcoin price be above $16750 at Dec 19 10pm ET?
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Will any of my 5 markets on whether they'll get to 100 unique traders by the end of the year resolve to YES?
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Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?
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will-sbf-be-extradited-to-the-us-be
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Will SBF be extradited to the US before Dec 31th, 2022?
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cpmm-1
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1.359203460195869
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play
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1671401681481
Ammon Lam
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Will Paul Graham tweet again by February 1, 2023?
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cpmm-1
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1671401767136
Natália 🔍
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