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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5110394761374013 | WyoazzQDrj8ttVec23jZ | {"NO": 66.82348463393555, "YES": 10721.617111818989} | 0 | will-twitter-pay-fines-in-the-eu-by | 15402.35801356707 | Will Twitter pay fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024? | 1704150000000 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | cpmm-1 | 9.42696250156786e-16 | 1.8092234796603734 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671335860137 | Bjorn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There has been a lot of discussion in the media about the EU using the \"Media Freedom Act\" to punish Elon Musk's Twitter. I just discovered that this Act has not been made into EU law yet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704154671887 | 1010 | brp | 1710451929780 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 2 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "European Union"... | ["twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "european-union"] | 0.10205081829046198 | 0.5 | 1704142789655 | 1704142801805 | 0.01 | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.416358159686162 | 2vA2uU2Kb41mn0xYHdtI | {"NO": 47.05050223663258, "YES": 347} | 0.08819749157990774 | will-brian-johnson-liver-king-be-ch | 237 | Will Brian Johnson ("Liver King") be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 1893387600000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671337610521 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Brian Johnson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liver_King", "class": null, ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 110 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1684735664820 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671337611334}, {"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1671376057455... | ["law-order", "scandal-markets", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1684735664672 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33594128606065693 | 4AeKCQIwMG7u2KMKE69d | {"NO": 200.6268987452529, "YES": 215.67757648101664} | 0.31999999999999984 | will-logan-paul-media-personality-a | 209.84258496670208 | Will Logan Paul (media personality and wrestler) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 1893387600000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0.2577787745387774 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671338076560 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Logan Paul", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan_Paul", "class": null, "ta... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 210 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1688286377051 | 2.2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671338413640}, {"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1671376014459... | ["law-order", "scandal-markets", "logan-paul"] | 0.120642773467685 | 0.5 | 1688286376909 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4500210495707588 | fE9B8csRMfD54QK7wh8h | {"NO": 159.46593470021773, "YES": 278.88441423219365} | 0.31874338053655343 | will-jake-paul-media-personality-an | 242.41101122404493 | Will Jake Paul (media personality and boxer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 1893387600000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671338261841 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Jake Paul", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul", "class": null, "targ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2290326387891151, "platformFee": 0.2290326387891151, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 210 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1714533316754 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671349990881}, {"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1671376053053... | ["law-order", "scandal-markets"] | 0.5 | 1714533313462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05608279595585341 | eqyapkSFAJkgKj3AfJsz | {"NO": 951.9139807318342, "YES": 1328.253396655556} | 0.04084161012959207 | will-scott-alexander-psychiatrist-a | 2288.6006557638807 | Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030? | 1893387600000 | YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1671339741513 | Scrooge McDuck | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "psychiatrist", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://lorienpsych.com/about... | BINARY | {"day": 1.0408340855860843e-16, "week": 1.0408340855860843e-16, "month": 1.0408340855860843e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ScroogeMcDuck | 1683052158669 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1671375986978}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671339755359... | ["law-order", "scandal-markets", "acx"] | 0.5 | 1683052158536 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3251811964592548 | p92HQFtaZKnDVYTBc3JB | {"NO": 70.71917312783863, "YES": 1895.5060781782902} | 0 | will-spindle-have-the-lowest-profit | 4655.908822117667 | Will Spindle have the lowest profit of any account on Manifold at the end of 2023? | 1704096000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7863773267342604 | True | play | NO | public | 1671340955898 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will ignore any account that appears to be manipulating its own profits solely to make them negative.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704152407022 | 330 | IsaacKing | 1704152407221 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671340956784}, {"name": "Marketz About Spindle", "slug": "marketz-about-spindle", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "wDAyLOX0KjFAjMpIJmBz", "createdTime"... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "marketz-about-spindle", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.5 | 1703456178439 | 1704149821978 | 0.02 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1405417996304038 | p81ymO82Hu1JT13tDlrV | {"NO": 745.9534949746944, "YES": 3962.8112236523098} | 0.029862249773950373 | will-the-everyday-astronaut-go-to-t | 3475.9413930875457 | Will the Everyday Astronaut go to the moon by the end of 2024? | 1735718400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.23874180585068 | False | basic | public | 1671341780774 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFIuzormhYU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFIuzormhYU", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.013430485376015534} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.9720902781698464, "platformFee": 0.1707076596267585, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1719068277406 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1671341781040}] | ["space"] | 0.5 | 1719068274372 | 1676672211475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6519644463908777 | 9Lly941jpUVJatV0Kbwj | {"NO": 2795.345230746223, "YES": 23.555954374257} | 1 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-the-largest | 5164.415163853603 | By the end of 2023, will the largest self-referential/"fun" market have had at least 400 traders? | 1680511898673 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.651201517703631 | True | play | YES | public | 1671342296157 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A lot of people make markets that just exist as a game (or a way to farm unique trader bonuses) rather than asking about any external, real-world outcome. So far I think the largest of these has been ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention",... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680511898673 | 130 | IsaacKing | 1680497885394 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671342296481}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1680497885258 | 1680497848844 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9015911296144732 | 394wPwBHGC0IB0BIzXRS | {"NO": 1640.5508128791016, "YES": 909.4095380808986} | 0.9429465995915189 | will-the-moon-still-exist-on-march | 10755.993255777852 | Will the moon still exist on March 15th, 2039? | 2183785200000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.270517423916665 | False | basic | public | 1671343159527 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.167350329101019, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1717312933610 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 34 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1671343159736}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104989580}] | ["space", "futurism"] | 0.5 | 1717312930483 | 1676670222755 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rw78d0iyP85ribSa73Di | what-is-the-outcome-of-a-traditiona-4b76f1dfad80 | 5317.2316705842795 | What is the outcome of a traditional game of chess with optimal play? | 253370793600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1671344228771 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wi... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.014188847861645, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1400 | IsaacKing | 1719614762546 | 1.2 | 2 | 57 | 2 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6d6fb99210fe", "prob": 0.2796101757181144, "text": "Win for white", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.95560411828563, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 110.671151445828, "textFts": "'white':3 'win':1", "contractId": "rw78d0iyP85ribSa73Di", "createdTime": 1671344228771, "probChanges"... | 28 | [{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1671344228966}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671344238755}] | ["chess", "technology-default"] | 0.13491808335339595 | 1719614759422 | 1702809352219 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20003382287827268 | XDXFi1VcvJSXhadKCteZ | {"NO": 370.30229731287693, "YES": 1979.7782593410714} | 0 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-enough-of-t | 2368.911289283682 | By the end of 2023, will enough of the Magic: The Gathering community be on Manifold that I feel it's a useful resource for making my career decisions? | 1704096000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2566759510891963 | True | play | NO | public | 1671344835240 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Right now I mostly use Manifold for fun; it's not actually all that useful for me. The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "few markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-flesh-and-blood... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704154207208 | 550 | IsaacKing | 1704154207447 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1671344835477}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130546493}, ... | ["magic-the-gathering", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.5 | 1703193267878 | 1676402422965 | 0.04 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6455647177732373 | JCjx4dcxhPpYg2oe7TA3 | {"NO": 3284.848851612723, "YES": 710.4825078868113} | 0.8938544118694427 | will-we-see-highly-sophisticated-ai | 29975.684513128108 | Will we see highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarms before the end of 2025? | 1767225540000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0.744563835407082 | 9.5039144322892 | False | basic | public | 1671344987157 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A highly sophisticated AI-based aged account sockpuppet swarm, for the purposes of this market, might look like the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.39008199356252937, "platformFee": 0.39008199356252937, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1300 | LarsDoucet | 1713852174558 | 3.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 7 | 72 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671344987912}] | ["ai"] | 0.2285952084598609 | 0.5 | 1713852171268 | 1702054239757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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d3CWtda0m3TOBS74xmf8 | who-will-win-star-spangled-gamblers-3f4a23ee870a | 50 | Who will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Best Trade of the Year? | 1676377102805 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.901971679398953 | True | play | 3534e270c303 | public | 1671365757295 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "pa... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676377102805 | 320 | dglid | 1671365847400 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "e6b687719f8c", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.40247423999601, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.00309279999501, "textFts": "", "contractId": "d3CWtda0m3TOBS74xmf8", "createdTime": 1671365757688, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1671365757529}] | ["gambling"] | False | 1671365847236 | {"3534e270c303": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6AE1GA6tEm9525BoL3f1 | who-will-win-star-spangled-gamblers-c58fb61fc9e3 | 40 | Who will win Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo award for Worst Pump of the Year? | 1676377250352 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.919565222634214 | True | play | e4cd30511d54 | public | 1671366356837 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Golden Modelos are the Oscars of political gambling hosted by Star Spangled Gamblers. To learn more, read/listen here: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676377250352 | 300 | dglid | 1673755987234 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7658a3973f17", "prob": 0.5102040816326531, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.98750390489416, "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 57.58800374869839, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6AE1GA6tEm9525BoL3f1", "createdTime": 1671366357235, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 2 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1671366357100}] | ["gambling"] | False | 1671366390584 | 1673755984496 | {"e4cd30511d54": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2604325521323292 | XtD1M87hEkmLVrjxcCe9 | {"NO": 333.7384991957563, "YES": 5621.835897829455} | 0 | will-destiny-reach-1000000-subscrib | 74296.3695960227 | Will Destiny Reach 1,000,000 Subscribers In 2023 | 1704067200000 | iiW6q0mpcZQNmKYmmONiLWBdIbI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0301816227423464 | True | play | NO | public | 1671379843372 | Magni Þór Björnsson | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves to 'yes' if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Destiny's main Youtube channel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/user/destiny", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704077741697 | 750 | Skepni | 1704077742269 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2RMLK3cBAdFDlaT2YPIwtAYCh_RtuHNVDSpak2=s96-c | 0 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "iiW6q0mpcZQNmKYmmONiLWBdIbI2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671379843769}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131348986}] | ["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1252625640427611 | 0.5 | 1703539661485 | 0.02 | iiW6q0mpcZQNmKYmmONiLWBdIbI2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13800670943679336 | XSecIJe7vgpjp1hcS5WK | {"NO": 295.76879182841594, "YES": 773.2976383659613} | 0 | will-i-think-these-spots-were-a-big | 403.2976383659612 | Will I think these spots were a big deal? | 1671407940000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2515029453565716 | True | play | NO | public | 1671381668062 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My body has about 1 small spot ever 20 cm that are itchy. In hindsight will I think they are a big deal.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A photo:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672736966491 | 370 | NathanpmYoung | 1672736960180 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 4 | 10 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671381668876}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1671399469694 | 1672736957254 | 0.06 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5933849057407058 | nn1ql2cBpz7uUPqXKAJk | {"NO": 1918.7962371829553, "YES": 81.2955643925701} | 1 | will-sbf-be-released-on-bail-875f90b6f805 | 2980.4982625629737 | Will SBF be released on bail? | 1671737433695 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0580889911054934 | True | play | YES | public | 1671382344984 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On bail. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671737433695 | 330 | Gigacasting | 1671737426209 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671382345226}] | ["ftx"] | 0.5 | 1671737426021 | 1671736911723 | 0.94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7081776492338154 | wxDvrMgzykcyi6KoAJhB | {"NO": 2498.842057009618, "YES": 93.763887399296} | 1 | will-manifold-implement-limit-expir-6d04685988e3 | 2410.448232479933 | Will Manifold implement limit expiration dates by the end of 2023? | 1681494701186 | GPpWQpjHAgPvW3BlsKZf8qhv4yH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.542744846806757 | True | play | YES | public | 1671385885319 | Jonathan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if at any point before 2024 manifold allows specifying a cancellation date on limit orders.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681494701186 | 270 | jonmast | 1681493362546 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJonathanMast%2FvrBNbxEPtm.16?alt=media&token=48f2b259-c160-4489-bde5-fc76572098e8 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "GPpWQpjHAgPvW3BlsKZf8qhv4yH3", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1671385885538}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1681493362362 | 1681492580287 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.024917820309847436 | LIwvruB1CzU8uC9T5J9D | {"NO": 933.0453793388504, "YES": 2748.1711728182427} | 0.008601536929269545 | will-san-marino-win-the-2026-world | 3489.5522502084755 | Will San Marino win the 2026 World Cup? | 1798779600000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1671386955631 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You never know...", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 8.673617379884035e-18, "week": 8.673617379884035e-18, "month": 8.673617379884035e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Ibozz91 | 1692613432853 | 1.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671386956409}, {"name": "2026 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2026-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "qvoAQ5xw34QW92Gtwr91", "createdTime": 16713876092... | ["sports-default", "2026-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.16143144372564314 | 0.5 | 1692613432711 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15303071875002777 | n9iG6UJDCwUiUp5OXLLQ | {"NO": 409.7256361251963, "YES": 13.064007780364756} | 0.8500000000000003 | by-the-end-of-2023-what-will-be-the | 169.03671852507833 | By the end of 2023, what will be the size of my largest loss on any single manifold market? | 1671393089482 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.783506703362959 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671387887294 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Defined as largest total reported loss by manifold over the lifetime of the market on Jan 1st, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671393089482 | 310 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1671393169686 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671387887998}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.1 | 1671392623751 | 1671393167062 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.667766649669941 | KOhV1nSZpWj498EvKq5J | {"NO": 261.2567923964019, "YES": 2756.8198892161345} | 0.125 | by-the-end-of-2023-what-will-be-the-e766882f378f | 10332.12147875442 | By the end of 2023, what will be the size of my largest win on any single manifold market? | 1704088800000 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5925748274633134 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671387963601 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Defined as largest total reported profit by manifold over the lifetime of the market on Jan 1st, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704126264734 | 1610 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1704126265079 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671387964450}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681612155... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1 | 1704060171442 | 1698058559970 | 0.125 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ZQMGK3KoMfEtt6LvukKh | which-team-will-win-the-2026-fifa-w-e6c8e9e08427 | 14 | Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1671389151594 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.977456264052392 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671388764699 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671389151594 | 280 | egroj | 1671389620215 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0b7db82711b9", "prob": 0.7694675284702985, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 58.964312270746724, "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 17.66570795631572, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ZQMGK3KoMfEtt6LvukKh", "createdTime": 1671388764979, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 2 | [{"name": "2026 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2026-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "qvoAQ5xw34QW92Gtwr91", "createdTime": 1671388764879}] | ["2026-fifa-world-cup"] | 1671388855328 | 1671389617911 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2616843070577841 | Di54drU3xBJVtWHt18ep | {"NO": 1128.4116267192253, "YES": 8752.643151239996} | 0 | will-destidarko-get-banned-in-2022 | 21296.986534406453 | Will DestiDarko get banned in 2022? | 1672531140000 | O5ZcwsbGcIcYTvvertFlpEBwBH72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3398654912148462 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671388944355 | Dxcomx | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672541333887 | 1990 | Dxcomx | 1672529146923 | 0 | 4 | 120 | 0 | 1 | 94 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "O5ZcwsbGcIcYTvvertFlpEBwBH72", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671388945027}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671388934818}] | ["destinygg", "twitter"] | 0.5 | 1672529146816 | 1671582372425 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.687675404905861 | HQOqFPw0RclprhkFJqqm | {"NO": 8045.224841182639, "YES": 537.7779319536894} | 1 | by-the-end-of-2023-will-my-alltime | 10189.818266992745 | By the end of 2023, will my all-time MM winnings exceed my losses? | 1704088800000 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5639565586038735 | True | basic | YES | public | 1671389338092 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704126227408 | 1270 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1704126227701 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671389979427}, {"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1671389338778}, {"name":... | ["gambling", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "keeping-score", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704080225712 | 1671398192008 | 0.97 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8043650896993365 | aLzxpJtoWxYRafbrdcCt | {"NO": 5069.796893570362, "YES": 636.768391545001} | 1 | will-twitter-allow-promotion-of-oth | 14432.22725444853 | Will Twitter allow promotion of other social media platforms again on February 1? | 1675238340000 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7698945457665389 | True | basic | YES | public | 1671389568506 | Conflux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Under the reign of \"free speech absolutist\" Elon Musk, Twitter has announced a new policy banning accounts designed to cross-promote other platforms. There has obviously been backlash. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675262125738 | 1030 | Conflux | 1710451933183 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 38 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1675237799922 | 1671593001474 | 0.97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4201859558313962 | ZSPUeibTH9tYzPsQ7Ffj | {"NO": 867.2412964604198, "YES": 3712.886837574882} | 0.14476583536476287 | will-twitter-prohibit-substack-link | 17894.137629911475 | Will Twitter prohibit Substack links by May 2023? | 1682910120000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.30555706221476364 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1671390146073 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Twitter prohibits links to Substack like they just did with Facebook, Instagram, Mastodon, Truth and so on, this market solves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683379273118 | 1910 | MP | 1710451932970 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 3 | 91 | 0 | 2 | 28 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1682910098104 | 1682406447686 | 0.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33737781452122756 | e0F6A00A8ukV3oayJhMx | {"NO": 36.37554585152841, "YES": 172.66666666666663} | 0 | pale-lights-is-yong-married-to-tupo | 121 | [Pale lights] Is Yong married to Tupoc? | 1697725018164 | HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6065339312688405 | True | play | NO | public | 1671390605214 | Theodore Ehrenborg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From Chapter 12: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“Ah,” the thief coughed. “I mean no offence. I am sure your wife-”", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "“H... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697725018164 | 70 | TheodoreEhrenborg | 1697724988820 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1671390723813}] | ["fiction"] | 0.5 | 1680343338036 | 1697724988017 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.750279510068663 | 1XRjF9q1szpbOoHlAjOG | {"NO": 1216.100906636927, "YES": 913.7268011332147} | 0.7999492149041733 | will-all-previous-champions-of-the | 721.7036442111386 | Will all previous champions of the World Cup qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1782878340000 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.636652686731276 | False | basic | public | 1671391688019 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if all these countries qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup: Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, Spain, and England. Resolves NO if any in that list fail to qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.0006636576040572884, "month": -0.0006636576040583986} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0390276505970357, "platformFee": 0.9859796894548922, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | egroj | 1719764742927 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "2026 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2026-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "qvoAQ5xw34QW92Gtwr91", "createdTime": 1671391688215}] | ["2026-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1719764739856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8071290156054827 | jkeJxRSaBxeUrRpvUu4J | {"NO": 1112.2165526890133, "YES": 958.6170681959728} | 0.8292159242403032 | will-a-previous-winner-of-the-world-0c2e4c1fa9ca | 673.3269410670237 | Will a previous winner of the World Cup win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1785470340000 | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.722042930356757 | False | basic | public | 1671391788189 | JAAM | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the winner of 2026 FIFA World Cup is Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, Spain, or England.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | egroj | 1710096847157 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "2026 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2026-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "qvoAQ5xw34QW92Gtwr91", "createdTime": 1671391788389}] | ["2026-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1710096843661 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.15427391733403722 | 6DwLF3RZx55s7TStnhnT | {"NO": 456.0700022089185, "YES": 2940.729430312388} | 0 | will-trump-get-banned-from-twitter | 3998.144787227199 | Will Trump get banned from Twitter by end of 2023? | 1704085140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1624251323838455 | True | play | NO | public | 1671392458623 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump gets banned from Twitter between Dec 1, 2022 and Dec 31, 2023 inclusive.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704144588124 | 630 | Jenny | 1704144588599 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1671392458855}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671392443809}, {"name": "🎆 Ne... | ["donald-trump", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11250533002775655 | 0.5 | 1701386892314 | 1692969643290 | 0.03 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gxVyB6pmiai3GFtGOoJJ | which-of-the-following-top20gdp-cou | 206.48628238537304 | Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated? | 2524629600000 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671401441261 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Listed are the countries with the twenty largest nominal GDPs as of Dec 18th, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Constitutional monarchs\" and other ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nominal"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1160 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1709162696762 | 0 | 17 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "11fc5a31a163", "prob": 0.09836121252242563, "text": "United States of America", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.847793424222683, "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 53.60443651742662, "textFts": "'america':4 'state':2 'unit':1", "contractId": "gxVyB6pmiai3GFtGOoJJ", "createdTime": 16... | 11 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671401441731}] | ["politics-default"] | 1709162696599 | 1671445470895 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8107482703605 | K5RtBjWdBeQbG0MwK92e | {"NO": 7139.7140110775845, "YES": 345.83853496543674} | 1 | will-sbf-be-extradited-to-the-us-be | 9969.21858583039 | Will SBF be extradited to the US before Dec 31th, 2022? | 1671765501032 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.359203460195869 | True | play | YES | public | 1671401681481 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if SBF are extradited and physically arrives US before Dec 31th, 2022", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to No if SBF did not physically arrive US before Dec 31th, 2022", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671765501032 | 770 | AmmonLam | 1671763002697 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1 | 38 | 0 | 35 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671401682268}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1671401687150}] | ["us-politics", "sbf"] | 0.5 | 1671763002537 | 1671406587859 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7578027866957007 | vJDanv0Vw6MIbhX8uzd3 | {"NO": 567.9560616421456, "YES": 178.05860522241895} | 1 | will-paul-graham-tweet-again-by-feb | 1352.4122877664724 | Will Paul Graham tweet again by February 1, 2023? | 1671573718619 | CI1ME3MqbzgNmEnsecWrPp3vXzR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.05432626100138 | True | play | YES | public | 1671401767136 | Natália 🔍 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Paul Graham (@paulg) was suspended from Twitter a few minutes ago, after asking people to follow him on Mastodon. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively if the accoun... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671573718619 | 250 | Natalia | 1710451957498 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1671555863411 | 1671573741004 | 0.91 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8660485037681759 | nl6MipbyNX6w1tgpu4Jo | {"NO": 1155.147081549458, "YES": 952.7761346247329} | 0.8868605010434084 | will-france-be-a-member-state-of-th | 1027.3934763235407 | Will France be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032? | 1956524340000 | 7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.968798050523556 | False | basic | public | 1671402310862 | Nick el Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.007226884696611813} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.586799882175907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NickelChen | 1718216872831 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c | 1 | 21 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1671402323492}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1671402311069}, {"name": "Fra... | ["europe", "european-union", "france"] | 0.10574269672529558 | 0.5 | 1718216869462 | 1671471456742 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5354723985996277 | Dodgg4MxrqhK8CEn9wGN | {"NO": 384.1911790024715, "YES": 217.74736821586043} | 1 | test-aec512a7e0ae | 158.3810891396854 | test | 1671406384486 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2455889201375254 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671402668929 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet at your own risk", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671406384486 | 310 | IsaacKing | 1710206795958 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS"}] | ["testing"] | 0.5195737064824406 | 1671406378111 | 1671402826725 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4952651881094282 | zap2SCt4CIHdwwGNbs6N | {"NO": 250.39981787024035, "YES": 384.0486745981781} | 0.39015750480455935 | test-c1ed421b9eb6 | 329.99999999999983 | test | 1672560000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1369471853015651 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671403162158 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672609010380 | 310 | IsaacKing | 1710206797208 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "testing", "slug": "testing", "groupId": "Lokp5JWIA0BDlEPePSfS"}] | ["testing"] | 0.5 | 1671454888114 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5181875002361176 | 6Z8Ns2IpSNO3tdXy1Z2z | {"NO": 22.96624800417362, "YES": 107.01994780734049} | 0.18751974397874785 | will-ai-lead-to-an-srisk-by-2100 | 188.50699795298155 | Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100? | 1671404323161 | 2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.607398921729801 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671403429629 | Noa Nabeshima | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S-risk: \"[A risk where an adverse outcome] would bring about suffering on an astronomical scale, vastly exceeding all suffering that has existed on Earth so far.\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671404323161 | 90 | NoaNabeshima | 1671416129424 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGG2fLz1xZY60s5Zky2ne9wKGcZ1kXwE36DRdoyA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | True | 5 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671403430429}, {"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "userId": "9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1671403697731}] | ["ai", "ai-safety"] | 0.5 | 1671403988975 | 1671416127713 | 0.19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.33410383170118635 | fMfKBBaOOSsFNc7x2eGG | {"NO": 116.62549629857561, "YES": 3863.022127617425} | 0 | will-manifold-have-a-good-search-fu-22bafbc6bef2 | 4115.839116325922 | Will Manifold have a good search function by the end of April 2023? | 1682913540000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8917024140869048 | True | play | NO | public | 1671403703924 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "X4s62aeX0GXH3EIwLAwk", "label": "/IsaacKing/will-manifold-have-a-good-search-fu"}}, {"text": " (and comments) for issues with the current search page and exact resolution criteri... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697251941301 | 470 | Jenny | 1697252615245 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 34 | 9 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1671403704178}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "created... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1682905560832 | 1697252613448 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | yKeJAaV3MRvaPRobZacK | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.5 | will-twitter-unban-destiny-in-befor | 0 | Will Twitter unban Destiny in before July 2023 ? | 1671404214947 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671404180346 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@Steven_Bonnell", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ") is unbanned by Twitter before July 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671404214947 | 50 | AmmonLam | 1671404180346 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671404180776}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5420288013578916 | 9CofzylGUSOGNNMNIWUF | {"NO": 2746.660466833594, "YES": 48.28038434155661} | 1 | will-twitter-unban-destiny-before-j | 5481.741804317113 | Will Twitter unban Destiny before July 2023 ? | 1672692568741 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.516085288125237 | True | play | YES | public | 1671404198815 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@Steven_Bonnell", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ") is unbanned by Twitter before July 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672692568741 | 430 | AmmonLam | 1672729798145 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1 | 21 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671404199303}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672691857577 | 1672729795280 | 0.99 |
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