p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.7525534869107477
QMYtrtwiFUEyNqUJ68pi
{"NO": 10543.112832475295, "YES": 14.440275569082587}
1
will-the-total-volume-of-this-marke
10496.509964267741
Will the total volume of this market by Isaac King be above 100,000Ṁ?
1671417784806
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
5.596452450868083
True
play
YES
public
1671405132370
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The referenced market", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671417784806
110
AmmonLam
1671417781438
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
4
0
https://firebasestorage.…c4e-5b1133da3a67
4
[{"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1m", "createdTime": 1671411476604}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVF...
["predictions-on-predictions", "derivative-markets"]
0.5
1671417781297
1671412635438
0.98
0.868305328288568
nox3uoqXx4PnkNW76bMt
{"NO": 2441.5683082856735, "YES": 122.00598175345046}
1
will-the-total-volume-of-this-marke-29fbd9668fa2
2352.6294318045034
Will the total volume of this market by Isaac King be above 200,000Ṁ?
1671634521520
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
3.8299996066496633
True
play
YES
public
1671405212178
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The referenced market", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671634521520
210
AmmonLam
1671536809143
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…051-a8573c268935
9
[{"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1m", "createdTime": 1671411491001}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVF...
["predictions-on-predictions", "derivative-markets"]
0.5
1671536808963
1671500060818
0.99
0.3734160142150129
tmI1N6FZjRgL84jZoYzM
{"NO": 88.77218054260051, "YES": 14499.346442997352}
0
will-this-market-by-isaac-king-reso
42201.414656887995
Will this market by Isaac King resolve to "Yes"?
1671942648652
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
1.7003774150052346
True
play
NO
public
1671405317746
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The referenced market", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671942648652
830
AmmonLam
1671942633495
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
43
0
https://firebasestorage.…5b4-1cccc97d5739
36
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1671411533917}, {"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1...
["derivative-markets", "predictions-on-predictions", "isaacs-gamble-market"]
0.5
1671942633359
1671941167831
0
0.7488321732001366
ndAuyiiNgpOw7FNKguXW
{"NO": 987.2101354858474, "YES": 992.1718832386753}
0.747888056495555
will-debian-ship-a-driver-written-i
502.5160530394785
Will Debian ship a driver written in Rust using the Rust for Linux infrastructure by 2025?
1735685940000
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
cpmm-1
0
9.594062811410407
False
basic
public
1671405331573
tailcalled
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The driver must be considered part of the Debian distribution", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.8084476372893903, "platformFee": 1.9195357721021225, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
tailcalled
1717045197350
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxeZfsEiMzmTe5-vZ4oy9KNLEAgzRxC3sy9FWoUvg=s96-c
19
0
https://firebasestorage.…5c4-ad16764c0747
8
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671405331874}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1717045193792
1716361680202
0.7176195008843256
kf5Dsg1ha9bJU7LkOgRu
{"NO": 941.1830825152389, "YES": 189.8894148933791}
1
will-twitter-reverse-its-promotion
1334.3371638804008
Will Twitter reverse its promotion of alternative platforms policy before February 1st 2023?
1672095484172
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.6388915505337398
True
play
YES
public
1671405443957
Bionic
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/cineraverinia_2/status/1604587279435063305?s=21", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/cineraverinia_2/status/1604587279435063305?s=21", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672095484172
310
BionicD0LPH1N
1672086737074
0
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
16
0
https://firebasestorage.…7cf-d4e5305cc6ef
13
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671405444192}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1672086692178
1672086735249
0.93
0.9069932211742044
RuUgqxqvWCoEII6qkln2
{"NO": 4429.648514473892, "YES": 1547.608496149758}
1
will-twitter-roll-back-its-no-compe
5945.61209597622
Will Twitter roll back its no competitor social media policy before the end of 2022?
1671561004963
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
0
0.6978331279610934
True
basic
YES
public
1671405545636
SG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604531265419591681"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Twitter formally revokes the above policy OR silently changes...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671561004963
1730
SG
1671560160037
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
2
62
0
https://firebasestorage.…237-e1185e63b24c
59
[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1671405558891}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671405554174}, {"name": "Technology", ...
["twitter", "internet", "technology-default"]
0.5
1671560159823
1671559119811
0.97
0.8373324322541223
u2wbJhCub4AJcg1jEhTv
{"NO": 7490.5940766382255, "YES": 186.8333325432157}
1
will-the-total-volume-of-this-marke-6cb65d86196d
8416.67909615809
Will the total volume of this market by Isaac King be above 400,000Ṁ?
1671677722288
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
2.5417695116825434
True
play
YES
public
1671405615249
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The referenced market", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671677722288
390
AmmonLam
1671677716052
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
20
0
https://firebasestorage.…c13-39d6ea3cca8f
20
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1671411843319}, {"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1...
["derivative-markets", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1671677715949
1671649199831
1
0.49999999999999983
nwQQLDJd8JuJz6QTESDk
{"NO": 51, "YES": 49.01960784313726}
0.509900019603999
will-elon-step-down-from-twitter-po
1
Will Elon step down from Twitter? (POLL)
1671406106463
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
4.394623439017458
True
play
CANCEL
public
1671405887616
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604617643973124097"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671406106463
50
Gigacasting
1671405927501
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…c5d-0f85b9b6291f
1
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671405887870}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181978340}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1671405927393
False
0.51
Ng03sB2z035ldbrITRg1
test-a2098d14f80c
5
test
1671406460085
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.003055295544427
True
play
CANCEL
public
1671406412411
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671406460085
240
IsaacKing
1720053161621
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "c7586294ab77", "prob": 0.5464852607709751, "text": "Apples", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 119.48026340190557, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 99.15374556174733, "textFts": "'appl':1", "contractId": "Ng03sB2z035ldbrITRg1", "createdTime": 1671406412411, "probCh...
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-345f1711873c
2
1671406443282
1672032177195
True
0.9274390282445524
f7q9TKLmgw7SCbEtQeAn
{"NO": 5635.759302776636, "YES": 720.7704360718374}
1
will-more-than-half-of-people-vote
6958.976203986846
Will more than half of people vote "Yes" in Elon Musk's poll about stepping down as head of Twitter?
1671494340000
AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2
cpmm-1
0
1.8094966466690448
True
play
YES
public
1671406440139
Matthew Barnett
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to the poll: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "class": null, "target...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671496292727
890
MatthewBarnett
1671486944376
0
https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec
1
30
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…a1f-86844aa4c5f1
26
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671406483431}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1671406479582}, {"name": ...
["twitter", "internet", "technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1671486944279
1671407012649
False
0.99
xxU2swPqzdQg35FxvjNf
next-twitter-ceo
0
Next Twitter CEO
1671406768361
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.0189258735310585
True
play
CANCEL
public
1671406523151
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671406768361
220
Gigacasting
1671406523804
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
1
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "6cebdbfbcce3", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xxU2swPqzdQg35FxvjNf", "createdTime": 1671406523631, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...
https://firebasestorage.…263-e9e8bf1b5cc0
1
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671406523505}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181978408}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
1671406523151
False
True
0.9128546627569925
d8acYvLne7L5dDs9ph7u
{"NO": 2072.940693943507, "YES": 340.0950593604149}
1
will-elons-twitter-poll-should-i-st
2588.9096438034867
Will Elon's Twitter poll "Should I step down as head of Twitter?" get more YES votes than NO votes?
1671436800000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
3.0094923485938936
True
play
YES
public
1671406599974
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671463636237
430
IsaacKing
1710451936256
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
23
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d48-85b3d23e18ad
22
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1671434484013
1671411219419
False
0.98
0.05103771022178424
rIifmn12Thk8d1vKJEW7
{"NO": 349.07211976987315, "YES": 11995.909585056188}
0
will-twitter-prohibit-manifold-link
11608.09041494381
Will Twitter prohibit Manifold links by May 2023?
1682913540000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.7691213240190478
True
play
NO
public
1671406831997
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Twitter prohibits links to Manifold like they just did with Facebook, Instagram, Mastodon, Truth and so on, this market solves to YES. The ban has to stay in place for at least 12 hours.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1685586951731
450
Jenny
1685586950610
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
1
20
0
7
https://firebasestorage.…eeb-7ca5054d5ec2
11
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671406873513}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1671406832177}, {"name":...
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1682913348617
1685586948353
0
0.48972975052630635
gFV6Zf44nK6lZwoPmYLb
{"NO": 158.37104406971412, "YES": 25353.668325628678}
0
will-elon-step-down-as-head-of-twit
56853.570479649585
Will Elon Musk 'step down as head of Twitter' within a month?
1674082740000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
1.0071555437648536
True
basic
NO
public
1671406977398
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a month from this poll close time:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604617643973124097"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1674119291626
1990
itsTomekK
1710451939108
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
3
186
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…5ef-5bb8dd44693f
147
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Fire the CEO Markets", "slug": "fire-the-ceo-markets", "groupId": "LWJ5wcYDOJBhYRKc188S"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "fire-the-ceo-markets"]
0.5
1674082491720
1674088399959
0.01
0.22498186059009803
UiV1PF5yeQqMlTqzetwp
{"NO": 455.60384402344084, "YES": 15824.456401849806}
0
will-elon-step-down-as-head-of-twit-087e46c7706f
17253.806708128646
Will Elon Musk 'step down as head of Twitter' within a week?
1672095540000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
0.8901186179674725
True
basic
NO
public
1671407079062
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604617643973124097"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 19, 12:48am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Elon 'step down as head of Twitter' within a week?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Elon M...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672146405744
1170
itsTomekK
1710451926660
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
58
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…60a-aa3956d58924
54
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Fire the CEO Markets", "slug": "fire-the-ceo-markets", "groupId": "LWJ5wcYDOJBhYRKc188S"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "fire-the-ceo-markets"]
0.5
1672092514209
1672096579656
0.01
0.5657496347547261
yyQVeK9TM1Sibb9YETAT
{"NO": 49.9003739113452, "YES": 1593.9639267611954}
1
will-manifold-attempt-to-ban-or-sev
18505.772112922703
Will Manifold attempt to ban or severely limit the ability to buy or sell mana to third parties by the end of 2023?
1704096000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0.07512653031954004
10.586609649448985
True
play
YES
public
1671407265407
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1716940619234
610
IsaacKing
1716945495343
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
4
32
0
30
https://firebasestorage.…af9-916f12d42d9f
17
[{"name": "Mana", "slug": "mana", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bL97jpIvPZgebZnTTgom", "createdTime": 1671407265639}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128631869}, {"name": "Barcalona", "slug": "...
["mana", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.15075061638344023
0.5
1704077054825
1716945493957
0.04
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.7664408104984208
EDzQtD9AWThRLAyrT94c
{"NO": 4.26444546897892, "YES": 12677.872080676465}
0
will-elon-abide-by-the-results-of-h
67448.33987544711
Will Elon abide by the results of his "should I step down as head of twitter" poll if the answer is YES?
1677628740000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
2.5373636973739573
True
basic
NO
public
1671407609742
Lars Doucet
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1678063274954
1990
LarsDoucet
1710451916771
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
6
352
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…69d-20af59cd31ee
258
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1677628000982
1678066313516
0
0.07416313317364724
uI4KoiEPL53Yk2cCQexO
{"NO": 946.3328904567652, "YES": 1345.3844296459474}
0.053339087493868405
will-pmarca-run-twitter
567.109747357261
Will @pmarca run Twitter?
1767247140000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
10.471523891500034
False
basic
public
1671407727727
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1684225891410
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
10
0
https://firebasestorage.…ac3-c13551558e6a
9
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671407727970}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1684225891272
0.5039940393618905
sL5ynQa2Bm2e0AgQVHu8
{"NO": 71.19434475020601, "YES": 36.90863046449175}
0.662162162162162
what-will-be-the-result-of-elon-mus
20
What will be the result of Elon Musk's poll on whether he should step down as head of twitter?
1671408110711
ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342
cpmm-1
0
4.383713910633056
True
play
CANCEL
public
1671407785272
Will Howard
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to the poll: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604617643973124097"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671408110711
70
WilliamHoward
1710451954165
0
https://firebasestorage.…b8c-a844826f2fe1
1
0
https://firebasestorage.…f1b-eaab0d3fac0e
2
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1671407822396
1671408095043
False
0.66
0.21332808631513986
6L7A2jjvxCHu8L5EdYp2
{"NO": 1075.8559118262503, "YES": 8563.729310338967}
0
will-belarus-begin-a-land-invasion-38552308dbe3
15540.123425814912
Will Belarus begin a land invasion of Ukraine from the north by the end of 2023?
1704067140000
wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63
cpmm-1
0
0.43139194351811394
True
basic
NO
public
1671407789813
DAL59
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(It must be an invasion from the current Belarussian-Ukrainian border, so sending troops to the current eastern front on the Russian border would not count, and Belarussian troops must make up a significant portion of the invasion force)", "type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704084345889
1750
DAL59
1704084346515
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c
1
97
0
1
54
[{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1671417571377}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671417563820}, {"name": "...
["politics-default", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "belarus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703594995373
0.03
wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63
0.5547960141542022
0bPbzwCiumesTzNlSiQQ
{"NO": 190.60606060606054, "YES": 48.56349720896472}
1
will-i-fill-out-my-double-major-for
130
Will I fill out my double major form by Dec 21st?
1671594158481
bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2
cpmm-1
0
3.2717305584156713
True
play
YES
public
1671407834837
Kaivu
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "requires planning out order of coursework:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My current majors are math and ai.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671594158481
90
Kaivu
1671593563185
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…95a-90f7e329cca8
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671407835603}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1671593563033
0.65
0.5913483162534088
ubjUlnlGb4yDHYPaaJgi
{"NO": 212.93265007356865, "YES": 5064.370790513682}
0
will-elon-abide-by-the-results-of-t
10160.946213191175
Will Elon abide by the results of their Twitter poll "Should I step down as head of Twitter?"
1675238400000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
0.6989234465330671
True
basic
NO
public
1671407879992
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must occur within a reasonable time frame. If it resolves YES, waiting a week or two to step down is fine. Waiting 3 months is not.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-0...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675745087759
1690
IsaacKing
1710451955688
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
85
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…09c-32dd3fcac4cc
67
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1675238363531
1675744148487
False
0.06
0.7778214611887925
T5peleFKczlNTvfRuFbX
{"NO": 15963.7188857523, "YES": 1079.1246952720637}
1
will-elon-step-down-as-head-of-twit-2e167c2d6adb
68870.59554267212
Will Elon step down as head of Twitter?
1683926056758
CZdJly2L8iYvTVXDhugzuVqdLNF3
cpmm-1
0
0.4069064195219001
True
basic
YES
public
1671407930441
faebie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Elon steps down as per the results in the linked poll: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elon...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1683926056758
2010
faebie
1710451925071
0
https://firebasestorage.…ac8-f2ff3d7e1e94
3
184
0
https://firebasestorage.…332-8a28a59ddc6d
126
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1683920016393
1683926068383
False
0.98
0.25831704822990664
zuzq5DgW5wpIHVbSvkwp
{"NO": 184.57641582552307, "YES": 253.19959243230988}
0
will-i-time-track-every-day-in-jan
889.1407988553415
Will I time track every day in Jan 2023?
1674199162322
bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2
cpmm-1
0
2.1247794073142967
True
play
NO
public
1671407973014
Kaivu
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Am at an internship, and not in school.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have never time tracked for an extended period of time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragrap...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1674199162322
210
Kaivu
1674199124512
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5it87VqcRKspUt_py8q3eQyhYn9N8evvLehdkzg=s96-c
1
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…28f-8180120a9b49
10
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "bqGlgUgWHXgfioHRIU3mdXEYbGw2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671407973660}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1674199124239
0.2
0.8238836562849732
OVMheVp5EpaA6xT0DVAQ
{"NO": 18008.857874451398, "YES": 388.5144098906939}
1
will-musk-actually-abide-by-the-res
44763.04345038683
Will Musk actually abide by the results of his Twitter poll on stepping down?
1686433350356
GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2
cpmm-1
0
1.2146281756183406
True
play
YES
public
1671408410237
Inga Wei
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097?t=dT8tP9Mn0MP2zFjIBRV5Hw&s=19", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097?t=dT8tP9Mn0MP2zFjIBRV5Hw&s=19", "class": n...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1686433350356
830
IngaWei
1710451918523
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6N07nPem5iQHy1ZAOHOiKBJzjxa1rs9hBUjldvA=s96-c
3
41
0
https://firebasestorage.…d89-dcb75d4ea7ab
28
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1686431796584
1686145721080
1
0.12050788642340325
LLdCr1phtxWEYKbPdaZw
{"NO": 942.9870519833731, "YES": 15201.790199832581}
0
will-lex-friedman-become-ceo-of-twi
15885.108972259779
Will Lex Fridman become CEO of Twitter before March 1st 2023?
1677657600000
AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2
cpmm-1
0.8438441707387048
True
basic
NO
public
1671408411492
Matthew Barnett
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to reliable sources.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FM2DZTegBhP.jpg?alt=media&token=e2654750-c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677730926960
1370
MatthewBarnett
1710451916913
0
https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec
2
58
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…97a-dc104b5b2a2a
46
[{"name": "Lex Fridman", "slug": "lex-fridman", "groupId": "2iNyihPoqG4WWv4TIQkH"}, {"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a",...
["lex-fridman", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"]
0.5
1677657417380
1677724339599
0.01
0.4499371558713642
4dweiEJYHClwf0Z5wSgc
{"NO": 202.23743241668683, "YES": 135.17650461092506}
0.1
will-i-have-a-satisfyingly-producti
108.36489998751341
Will I have a satisfyingly productive january?
1675195740000
9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983
cpmm-1
0
1.8996601742008197
True
play
MKT
public
1671408474489
L
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at my discretion. I've had very unproductive october, november, and so far, mildly but dissatisfyingly productive december. i will only bet up to 50%, and at time of market creation, I'm uncertain whether I'll do that.", "type": "text"}]}]...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675315114361
170
L
1673005545832
0
https://firebasestorage.…776-643c9417e854
8
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…825-97263bc276af
8
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671408474759}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1672563381871
1673005540868
0.1
0.4474687842129142
y8p24igpZLGqxmgACq0E
{"NO": 5588.765043208106, "YES": 198.4184733505403}
1
by-the-end-of-2023-will-any-realwor
50367.85512092145
By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 20 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?
1704096000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
0.7782679377228021
True
basic
YES
public
1671409928925
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by the 4+ markets that all got made about Elon's Twitter poll on whether they should step down as head of Twitter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution criteria of the 20 ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704154128056
1510
IsaacKing
1704154128462
0.3
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
6
126
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…02e-4f404054a18e
27
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671409929785}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1700859835669}, {"name": "Barca...
["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.1287440734786385
0.5
1704050985973
1703978894409
0.96
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.7324196509673234
dyBnDNxx2TAH5A7Z544f
{"NO": 199.55099474579632, "YES": 172.48737724487737}
0.76
will-the-recipients-of-naming-right
1953.5001475557779
Will the recipients of naming rights money for the FTX Arena receive a demand to give their money back (e.g. to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
1830315600000
nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1671410167816
Peter Berggren
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/SpencerGreenberg/will-projects-which-received-grants", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SpencerGreenberg/will-pro...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
190
PeterBerggren
1697082893005
0
https://firebasestorage.…d70-3fbc29633023
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…a03-16d115bbd3b7
6
[{"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1671410168083}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "cre...
["ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1697082892589
0.4125109748555439
nsoja1Jka20CiDs7yd13
{"NO": 151.04828267946016, "YES": 5195.246445779221}
0
will-manifold-give-us-more-finegain
10928.546081802908
Will Manifold give us significantly more control over market types, labels, and graph colors by the end of 2023?
1704096000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0.15453467507509355
1.2636096931517216
True
play
NO
public
1671410280549
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are several ways in which our market choices are very restrictive.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704153962411
790
IsaacKing
1704343893592
2.6
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
46
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f77-0637df228d6a
14
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671410280937}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1700859833764}, {"name": "...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.1496807517513302
0.5
1704091362822
1704343892731
False
0.02
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.0978160009824314
lzKTArwotGkUrGoylOms
{"NO": 280.7080585688754, "YES": 677.7381062519049}
0
planecrash-will-a-lesswrong-post-de
1613.9459463421535
[planecrash] Will a LessWrong post detail "the Algorithm" by 2023YE
1704092400000
zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1
cpmm-1
0
3.267763418527323
True
play
NO
public
1671410610415
Robert Kennedy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eleizer has alluded to an \"Algorithm\" which exists by which people can make oaths, and that violating this Algorithm harms the ability for all entities in greater creation to coordinate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704151450858
330
RobertKennedy
1704151451027
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgovhYtKaBS0WIN2IHeAUhEETQaS-e2zZTgvTQAYA=s96-c
0
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…6b4-b179c9361049
13
[{"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1671410611027}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130511688}]
["ai-alignment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.107750163153961
0.5
1703497382823
1704150147179
0.04
zNNQ1oKJAKPX2GwbUODThDvBLPr1
0.5
GCPtOiOywDwNE9m22yTH
{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}
0.5
ai-verbal-supremacy-by-2030
0
AI: Verbal Supremacy by 2030?
1671410789371
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
4.3944491546724365
True
play
CANCEL
public
1671410745666
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will an AI model outwit any living human verbally--better plays, scripts, tweets, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Such that these fields become run by promoters and prompt engineers, no ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671410789371
50
Gigacasting
1671410745666
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
0
0
https://firebasestorage.…db1-b5dbc5f01f4f
1
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671410746043}]
["ai"]
0.5
0.5
0.2848656178853752
iP7aZmVRz3OyO6VCrSRW
{"NO": 63.03671640561879, "YES": 19012.80140184362}
0
planecrash-jvyy-gurer-or-n-gbegher
19121.888849119943
[Planecrash] Jvyy gurer or n gbegher, be frk guvat orgjrra cvyne naq pnvqra?
1682866391831
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
0
1.99951321398939
True
play
NO
public
1671411585522
Tim P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be a torture, or sex thing between pilar and caiden?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Right now the storry is here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://glowfic.com/replies/1899947#reply-1899947...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1682866391831
330
TimP
1682866202879
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c
17
0
https://firebasestorage.…3da-45b0a3e4c526
16
[{"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1671411585747}, {"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1671411609842}]
["planecrash", "glowfic"]
0.5
1682866202690
1682866103138
0
0.08278949116674346
UYG0oLddTNDi9oYjEH7W
{"NO": 166.2333169350008, "YES": 2039.2042457175123}
0
will-isaacs-69-market-resolve-na
7393.859942543595
Will Isaac's "69" market resolve N/A?
1671942677858
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
5.512015241652807
True
play
NO
public
1671411671009
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if this market resolves N/A:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671942677858
250
Jenny
1671940766281
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
1
13
0
https://firebasestorage.…3bb-7dc2951b8182
11
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1671411672234}, {"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1...
["derivative-markets", "predictions-on-predictions", "isaacs-gamble-market"]
0.5
1671940766138
1671420184961
0.02
0.7459378036151558
8jaWGlvW9X2BHqH2hucN
{"NO": 32367.56669305006, "YES": 469.5469816147861}
1
will-a-destiny-video-uploaded-durin
45325.85795674657
Will a Destiny video uploaded during December reach 300k views?
1672360486264
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
0.7430413944911693
True
basic
YES
public
1671412932731
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any video uploaded to the channel ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Destiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@destiny", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-ind...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672360486264
1590
Wobbles
1672360483552
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
3
80
0
https://firebasestorage.…4f2-fdbac866e212
67
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671412933202}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1672360483426
1672348476328
0.99
0.8233956431975281
rhVqsGvbGGIU5bwZJe26
{"NO": 8415.434839547961, "YES": 1517.8658044875815}
1
will-manifold-remain-open-source-fo
40130.58260535573
Will Manifold remain open source for all of 2023?
1704067140000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
0.024668463198653883
0.37562077600966814
True
basic
YES
public
1671413032095
SG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704143080790
2095
SG
1704143081664
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
6
87
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…13a-20c7b83fb06c
60
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671413032845}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "create...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.1598730260736834
0.5
1704064440080
1682859696681
0.96
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
0.28909354373808743
XSYn01WlCQGLLXmizKKa
{"NO": 331.6914389099943, "YES": 4059.531975006633}
0
by-the-end-of-2023-will-users-have
4665.85876432543
By the end of 2023, will users have purchased at least M$20,000,000 mana?
1704154012419
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
0.9457209769721016
True
play
NO
public
1671414101694
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation, it looks like people have bought somewhere around M$2,500,000 mana. (That's an extremely rough estimate, likely only accurate to within ~half an order of magnitude.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704159176084
710
IsaacKing
1704159176311
0.2
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
39
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…767-142d02a37835
15
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671414102151}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130819042}, {"name": "...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.11211903182485145
0.5
1702845850148
1704159166991
0.03
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.3635885123773533
QPUhsX5iMS4cfFwJiKjE
{"NO": 214.03825197738433, "YES": 1215.982303470734}
0
will-destiny-debate-someone-on-the
2563.654950715072
Will Destiny debate someone on the Twitter journalist bans this year?
1672559940000
9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13
cpmm-1
0
1.178561371247375
True
play
NO
public
1671414185048
johnleoks
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon suspended journalists who \"doxxed\" him recently.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672567453211
510
johnleoks
1710218558863
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c
25
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…782-0803e1bb8faa
18
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1672440507966
1672073319964
0.09
0.7786158902673247
JDVVWL596dW5I1Tr0Lsg
{"NO": 14198.60884211689, "YES": 378.71671739199206}
1
will-manifold-permanently-cease-all
38568.872233083996
Will Manifold announce the end of mana donations to charity by the end of 2023? [title altered]
1676784254936
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
1.0674480837809837
True
basic
YES
public
1671414426408
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Temporary halts don't count, it needs to look like mana won't be withdrawble for at least a few months in order for this to resolve YES. This market is about the intention to cease donations, not actual functionality on the site. (So an announcemen...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1676784254936
1670
IsaacKing
1677274666873
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
4
59
0
56
[{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1671414426627}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": ...
["manifold-for-charity", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1676781930332
1677274659073
0.99
0.3016934198507289
QNSqHbn7kgzz6Gu2j7WW
{"NO": 765.2824423709922, "YES": 3214.2302533758557}
0
will-any-of-the-big-four-of-the-ftx-1b58e57d09d6
3305.1648262052404
Will any of the Big Four of the FTX case apparently completely escape the attention of law enforcement as of 2024?
1677608930870
qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
cpmm-1
0.4509461851673695
True
basic
NO
public
1671415466617
M.H.
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Big four\" meaning one of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sam Bankman Fried", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677608930870
1190
MilfordHammerschmidt
1677608950504
0
https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
9
0
https://firebasestorage.…d5c-ce174f8d960a
8
[{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671415466935}]
["ftx"]
0.5
1677603718880
1677608947995
0.09
0.7735266507903432
55LoxTJX5PPIMznJSUVA
{"NO": 1524.3019555277326, "YES": 795.6228860519793}
0.8674386679218601
if-manifold-ceases-to-allow-mana-wi
1393.8065762011847
If Manifold ceases to allow mana withdrawals, will mana experience significant inflation within the next year?
2051251200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.784300171062338
False
basic
public
1671415536640
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Manifold turns off the ability to turn mana into charitable donations or other items of significant value as described ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Is...
BINARY
{"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.351091119401123, "platformFee": 6.351091119401123, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1716647193084
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
19
0
https://firebasestorage.…241-39ff85314bb0
14
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671415537027}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1715839638286
1716647191496
0.6753266990442921
UhJko4o4J2zoiQCyg9fJ
{"NO": 1055.8115862745526, "YES": 965.6891041740649}
0.6945759137286085
if-i-livestream-a-game-of-chess-wit
512.3573627369808
If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?
1719817200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.586942393746572
False
basic
public
1671415859721
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We'd be playing at a rate of around 30 seconds to 1 minute per move, on average.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1715384458538
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
26
0
https://firebasestorage.…f1a-276dc9b30b34
12
[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1671415860105}]
["chess"]
0.5
1707607267604
1715384457176
0.6166859149474783
12zE2bkjPKl9GZLzmiBd
{"NO": 1089.778020997814, "YES": 3388.99258873129}
0.34095224889814446
will-texas-have-blackouts-this-wint
82501.80630335491
Will Texas experience blackouts this winter?
1675381258033
s8IkipB5KCbi8Ny6pY1nr4RGjkV2
cpmm-1
0
0.21822768761469802
True
basic
CANCEL
public
1671416132640
Jeff B.-K.
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In February of 2021 Texas experienced large scale blackouts, with a near complete grid failure, due to a week long state wide winter storm. A new winter storm is coming to Texas the week of Christmas, will Texas experience rolling blackouts or larg...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677031163055
2240
PhatFree
1687346235555
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0-xKWeeHVBYul4wS_YG42CIWt5XOLwYMyKfIrwew=s96-c
11
516
0
4
https://firebasestorage.…8c0-cbf4f0847905
420
[{"name": "Texas", "slug": "texas", "userId": "s8IkipB5KCbi8Ny6pY1nr4RGjkV2", "groupId": "A4Z3W67n93LMKcZEILwf", "createdTime": 1671418040994}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "s8IkipB5KCbi8Ny6pY1nr4RGjkV2", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1671416694915}, {"name": "Climate", "slug": "cl...
["weather", "world-default", "climate", "energy", "texas", "austin-less-wrong-2023-predictions", "controversial-markets"]
0.20989046298713204
0.5
1675380779330
1687346232101
False
0.34
0.1629976468681249
0xSYVe4dYZJd39Eoc6LI
{"NO": 945.845472642523, "YES": 1193.2797132447433}
0.13371853507175074
will-any-of-my-markets-get-me-a-cea-8d03688ffb7b
588.0389556505766
Will any of my markets get me a cease-and-desist or legal threat by 2030?
1893484800000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.833914671861097
False
basic
public
1671416257939
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mostly copied from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-any-of-my-markets-get-me-a-cea", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type...
BINARY
{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.5167659397208038, "platformFee": 0.5167659397208038, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1715741616244
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
18
0
https://firebasestorage.…0e5-e7053623c3e4
11
[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671416258232}]
["law-order"]
0.5
1715741612989
1676308150185
0.818718186628329
6Q5rgxyyy2OYlEYUjexL
{"NO": 2653.5648267710085, "YES": 151.49709705620214}
1
will-there-be-more-than-15000000-vo
2744.0319450194174
Will there be more than 15,000,000 votes in Elon Musk's "Should I step down" poll?
1671464393876
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
2.84118903655866
True
play
YES
public
1671416574282
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604617643973124097"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671464393876
290
itsTomekK
1710451897308
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…279-cb3696c08f5d
13
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1671443060922
1671420049317
0.99
0.73244041198709
MR8JnDd7yM743Ethl2Wj
{"NO": 42978.67562500166, "YES": 259.1567553572254}
1
will-manifold-experience-a-serious
167641.23421122367
Will Manifold experience a serious security breach that compromises at least one user's personal data by the end of 2024?
1694485753060
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
0.3948768366885895
True
basic
YES
public
1671416912705
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Could include email addresses, credit card numbers, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A single user choosing a bad password and having their data stolen doesn't count; it must be Manifold's...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1694485753060
1290
IsaacKing
1699991738834
0.3
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
4
70
0
https://firebasestorage.…d9b-7154848f3a0a
22
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671416913256}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.11005147537105793
0.5
1694485751116
1699991737150
1
0.7430394868817652
4tet7WZvzOvuM908aFyd
{"NO": 1301.0278292547223, "YES": 173.74453399003238}
1
will-manifold-markets-have-any-mech
1190.314370101535
Will Manifold Markets have any working mechanism through which I can spend M$ and attract other users into a market by 2024?
1679107078493
qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
cpmm-1
0
1.8688398690579329
True
play
YES
public
1671417727556
M.H.
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1679107078493
310
MilfordHammerschmidt
1708459419889
0
https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
4
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…925-823b8a871c28
12
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671417728242}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1679067491906
1708459419292
0.96
0.24446448802594262
X7VxHuQ1pXmgySXzRlai
{"NO": 126.02254076355905, "YES": 2791.9819033487884}
0
will-there-be-more-than-20000000-vo
3004.2329019086064
Will there be more than 20 million votes in Elon Musk's "Should I step down" poll?
1671464379603
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
2.4361832585052063
True
play
NO
public
1671418568894
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1604617643973124097"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 19, 4:21am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there be more than 20,000,000 votes in Elon Musk's \"Should I step down\" poll?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671464379603
290
itsTomekK
1710207062351
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
15
0
https://firebasestorage.…b5b-038041b1c3af
14
[{"name": "✖️ Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1671458197797
0.01
0.48034707017134987
e3ah02wnqsS2hwQYTgQs
{"NO": 1421.0119478387332, "YES": 672.4567372006762}
0.6613989220228071
will-someone-sell-a-nonlithium-ev-b
1739.3779783380626
Will someone sell a non-lithium EV before 2025?
1735718340000
8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92
cpmm-1
0.13916929657113195
9.638964534748172
False
basic
public
1671423577628
Anton Paquin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lithium is expensive. I see lots of hype about sodium-ion or sodium-sulfur or other weird exotic batteries, but it seems like it never pans out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any major ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.868701022548834, "platformFee": 2.830999253642308, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
citrinitas
1717270433777
1.4
https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8
3
37
0
https://firebasestorage.…58e-9102165f8323
21
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671423578617}]
["technology-default"]
0.12532266253486127
0.5
1716983659236
1717270432351
0.8016375054463243
y6lwKmYVj4Giwf0Y4s8b
{"NO": 2892.720635209378, "YES": 270.34939381433696}
1
personal-pentesting-will-anyone-on
7706.184726003988
Personal Pentesting: Will anyone on Manifold find out private information about me by the end of 2023?
1673560960680
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
1.6290442132866696
True
play
YES
public
1671424338646
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This could include my home address, my personal phone number, my passwords to important websites, my social security number, or any other sensitive and important information that I would rather other people not have.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673560960680
570
IsaacKing
1673561018334
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
24
0
https://firebasestorage.…a30-6a199c8ac19e
24
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671424339169}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1673560527288
1673561015400
0.98
0.6183802116756467
DSgSiQHr1l5cwC20Ao30
{"NO": 86742.9715314853, "YES": 179.11400436568925}
1
will-elon-musk-step-down-from-being-10664c6dcb9a
276533.91201942565
Will Elon Musk step down from being head of Twitter before the end of 2023?
1686596103534
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
-0.20964825784042773
True
basic
YES
public
1671426079522
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1686596103534
2010
AmmonLam
1686581362147
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
0
165
0
https://firebasestorage.…64e-f6e06d41b416
54
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1671426090525}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1671426086508}, {"name":...
["us-politics", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter", "arbbot-inbox"]
0.5
1686581361826
1686432401435
1
0.7747449204394344
MWw4nqZNuBIFZhbLt2vu
{"NO": 20555.7109990987, "YES": 52.056627273424965}
1
will-over-56-of-users-vote-yes-for
20593.072498658054
Will over 56% of users vote Yes for Elon Musk to step down?
1671459967022
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
2.8381404131526637
True
play
YES
public
1671426190671
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671459967022
270
AmmonLam
1671459969326
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
14
0
https://firebasestorage.…f8d-310f61ebf370
13
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671426191487}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1671459963218
0.93
0.6965280023167325
RDajazm4SMVYQr5zo9p9
{"NO": 29286.554278627715, "YES": 53.48862557182656}
1
will-over-57-of-users-vote-yes-for
31314.355214190033
Will over 57% of users vote Yes for Elon Musk to step down?
1671460065882
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
1.6307277758508025
True
play
YES
public
1671426206190
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671460065882
430
AmmonLam
1671699438619
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
22
0
https://firebasestorage.…bc3-7f22de19c72b
22
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671426206531}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1671460062531
1671699434059
0.93
0.05825095197962278
V5IJ7tmEmrsGMXfksDzG
{"NO": 659.8835166829448, "YES": 34984.70590501957}
0
will-jared-kushner-be-the-next-ceo
89669.3756443454
Will Jared Kushner be the next CEO of Twitter after Elon Musk?
1686596093035
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
0.9620328127180588
True
play
NO
public
1671426633024
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1686596093035
870
AmmonLam
1686472182748
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
0
42
0
https://firebasestorage.…aaf-107b19cda0c3
23
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671426633810}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "gGA5SL1mLxnctQcYeOOq", "createdTime": 168387676318...
["us-politics", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.14990037482717355
0.5
1686472182646
1686432534285
False
0
0.09455646922320314
e90a9TbvFLODkOur1zBl
{"NO": 697.5883135960921, "YES": 63050.49090834429}
0
will-lex-fridman-be-the-next-ceo-of
97477.43939548377
Will Lex Fridman be the next CEO of Twitter after Elon Musk?
1686365398370
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
-0.05322886755976075
True
basic
NO
public
1671426660799
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1686365398370
1110
AmmonLam
1686365409834
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
2
54
0
https://firebasestorage.…6c6-bfda0a99adc4
36
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671426661221}, {"name": "Lex Fridman", "slug": "lex-fridman", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "2iNyihPoqG4WWv4TIQkH", "createdTime": 1671458145075}, {"name": ...
["us-politics", "lex-fridman", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1686201323532
1686365407081
False
0
0.5555230962879171
USrKmclNre8UV4hXBiU8
{"NO": 157.8216566111491, "YES": 80.2672959222944}
1
will-i-find-a-coding-playlist-that
70
Will I find a coding playlist that goes as gobsmackingly hard as this "John Wick" mix within the next three months?
1679270340000
qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1
cpmm-1
0
2.7037896327399134
True
play
YES
public
1671426728425
M.H.
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As seen here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9II8wyujeAw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9II8wyujeAw", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1679271553706
110
MilfordHammerschmidt
1686522461041
0
https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f
1
3
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…316-b6d0528fc428
4
[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1671426729232}]
["music-f213cbf1eab5"]
0.5
1671470421010
1686522457699
0.71
0.45965912442611445
gqqGnc3xQc31VxmI5VBs
{"NO": 642.2728367499546, "YES": 148.84504897642944}
1
will-mrmoutons-subathon-end-in-the
1333.0949311232523
Will MrMouton's subathon end in the middle of him streaming Hell's Kitchen?
1671497535455
3AEy292BXnVzv0qNRCrd1GJ5jQZ2
cpmm-1
0
1.2659183186204395
True
play
YES
public
1671426834599
Pherret
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/mrmouton", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.twitch.tv/mrmouton", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market resolves as yes if subathon timer reads ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671497535455
390
Pherret
1710218593587
0
https://firebasestorage.…293-2e3328574db4
20
0
https://firebasestorage.…8e0-e4a13f7cf5b7
18
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "❤️‍🔥 Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3"}, {"name": "Sex", "slug": "sex", "groupId": "hin1uXjOTBV5jHs3S2hz"}, {"name": "MrMouton Stocks", "slug": "mrmouton-stocks", "groupId": "mNbr6ElTwcY...
["destinygg", "sex-and-love", "sex", "mrmouton-stocks"]
0.5
1671491511440
1671487217193
0.79
GwZ8bhrBIRGlZDCh0xd0
pepe-vs-yee-daily-0dfe22261111
215
PEPE VS YEE DAILY
1671598740000
2ZR1o4tadeRI26q9TuDqQHA024i1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.762228114049824
True
play
c10c189c59b8
public
1671433386736
DoppioFrog
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BE ADVISED, THE FORMAT HAS CHANGED!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "INSTEAD OF BEING DECIDED BY THE MARKET ITSELF, NOW THE OUTCOME WILL BE DECIDED BY ME ASKING A RANDOM DGG'ER IN DGG CHAT AFTER THE MARKET CLOSES TO CHOSE PEPE VS...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671609085760
460
BettersonMcgee
1720053161621
0
https://firebasestorage.…0cc-49129eb5afbe
12
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "f55d1bcbfd92", "prob": 0.4819249181153944, "text": "PEPE", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 204.5151088680029, "userId": "2ZR1o4tadeRI26q9TuDqQHA024i1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 219.8562012268879, "textFts": "'pepe':1", "contractId": "GwZ8bhrBIRGlZDCh0xd0", "createdTime": 1671433386736, "probChang...
1
https://firebasestorage.…a14-0fecf51f4ac2
12
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "2ZR1o4tadeRI26q9TuDqQHA024i1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671433387138}]
["destinygg"]
1671593937237
1671609183894
{"c10c189c59b8": 100}
True
0.20040404562340852
hVR9iKZ2062ErYPLXY0W
{"NO": 245.8153443078864, "YES": 13686.07902794541}
0
will-magnus-carlsen-play-a-fiderate
13522.415709537952
Will Magnus Carlsen play a FIDE-rated game of chess against Hans Niemann by the end of 2023?
1704095940000
RDkSPfVlNceb3vjMRw2tPuC1ekE3
cpmm-1
0.058052821138426455
1.5931608022380286
True
play
NO
public
1671435479473
Elias Schmied
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "his statement on the Sinquefield Cup Scandal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/MagnusCarlsen/status/1574482694406565888", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"te...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704119582753
590
EliasSchmied
1704119583180
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…c69-4df1c84c3dd1
2
30
0
1
13
[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "RDkSPfVlNceb3vjMRw2tPuC1ekE3", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1671435479754}, {"name": "Sinquefield Cup Chess Scandal", "slug": "sinquefield-cup-chess-scandal", "userId": "RDkSPfVlNceb3vjMRw2tPuC1ekE3", "groupId": "KbJbnxa5LtQMbiEFURwc", "createdTime": 1...
["chess", "sinquefield-cup-chess-scandal", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.13431415734226462
0.5
1704092961043
0.02
b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3
0.2500577614872993
XLB264tF1ilRh5cVuqNo
{"NO": 248.78508562112074, "YES": 3479.122008051271}
0
will-dril-be-banned-or-suspended-fr
4299.937986856532
Will dril be banned or suspended from Twitter by EOY 2023?
1704067140000
ydMGOnInnwM2TURR9v0DKuBfCfK2
cpmm-1
0
1.3886280436543719
True
play
NO
public
1671439238656
edef
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes if the decision is reversed afterwards: the key element is that his presence on the site is disrupted in a way that was unprecedented prior to the change of leadership. \"banned or suspended\" includes any targeted moderation action t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704355649103
510
edef
1710451930220
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YqibXrF28B-tr-DpZEAESH8PkhNzSZCRUDWlF=s96-c
1
30
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…80b-ac1268ddef92
15
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1704065702728
1704355644620
0.02
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.5862070074959863
5Fwg9RpgcTx9zQL29NKH
{"NO": 93.21084674786891, "YES": 11680.828598947435}
0
if-elon-musks-twitter-poll-tells-hi
25369.5046143178
If Elon musk's Twitter poll tells him to step down as head of Twitter, will he abide by it?
1677628740000
RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2
cpmm-1
1.2640491792994148
True
basic
NO
public
1671440745147
Shaked Koplewitz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Musk put a Twitter poll on whether he should step down here, promising to abide by the result. If it goes against him, will he step down?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/el...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677682303200
1990
ShakedKoplewitz
1710451901868
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c
4
104
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…2ca-90c0e158774e
81
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1677627956698
1676462625412
0.01
0.4780832524823871
qQrXSaNtJyE3hID0ilfw
{"NO": 91.66666666666671, "YES": 87.73137716747868}
0
will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-62a39cab9bd4
20
Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings at least 6/7 days this week?
1672030800000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.0003996971193176
True
play
NO
public
1671444051460
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a weekly auto-generated market. Manually added details potentially forthcoming.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672672960364
90
Charlie
1671464346323
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
1
2
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…fac-d9f022662b28
3
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1671444052522}]
["health"]
0.5
1671464346202
0.49
0.5851916194459198
90OkniXaj3fpjZhGnkDk
{"NO": 6721.231201226162, "YES": 214.00510136171664}
1
will-destiny-hit-a-900-or-above-1st
13732.58230569756
Will Destiny hit a 900 (or above) 1st try?
1671698370217
k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1
cpmm-1
0
0.9495420620837787
True
basic
YES
public
1671444591982
Butidigress
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ̶O̶n̶l̶y̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶o̶d̶a̶y̶'̶s̶ ̶s̶t̶r̶e̶a̶m̶,̶ ̶D̶e̶c̶e̶m̶b̶e̶r̶ ̶1̶9̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶2̶", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "EXTENDED EDITION", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "p...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671698370217
1340
Butidigress
1671698353839
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XmJ94Qz8SgF05tqF6WJS9d0nGUVmZ24o0-qBH=s96-c
56
0
https://firebasestorage.…d85-bdbbdfcfda77
49
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671444592492}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1671694824460
1671698353285
0.98
0.6016027553277076
Jbil9Jj2KiopnfRhqarv
{"NO": 1139.8993012021808, "YES": 901.832581774017}
0.6562019233647288
will-hungary-be-a-member-state-of-t
391.03189662346773
Will Hungary be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
1956524340000
7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2
cpmm-1
0
9.722055722126548
False
basic
public
1671444845672
Nick el Chen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.0016113763624112654, "month": 0.011499464895450284}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.8358611926203018, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
NickelChen
1719780889697
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c
22
1
https://firebasestorage.…d03-963baf545584
13
[{"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1671444864086}, {"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1671444860179}, {"name": "Cen...
["european-union", "europe", "central-europe"]
0.5
1719780886648
FVPJjIAx81EKiUmle3rM
who-will-win-the-2023-tour-de-franc
82909.05081332773
Who will win the 2023 Tour de France (men’s GC)?
1690135289935
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.616290368975568
True
basic
21a0a3b06495
public
1671449970404
Nico
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about the general classification (GC), which determines who wears the yellow jersey. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market, like all other markets in the Tour de F...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1690135289935
3460.0000000000014
NicoDelon
1692032825051
10.2
https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb
2
44
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "1739fb8fbfed", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.290587116614557e-05, "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5290058057902897, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FVPJjIAx81EKiUmle3rM", "createdTime": 1671449970987, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":...
https://firebasestorage.…eef-388ceb0ceb27
8
[{"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1671449978889}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671449970827}, {"name"...
["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing", "peloton-discord", "tour-de-france"]
0.254562368279963
1690135271679
1692032820686
{"21a0a3b06495": 100}
True
0.2191129989788275
kyHNkoCTe8K1m5obnlW5
{"NO": 783.8423897588959, "YES": 1946.41093844222}
0.10152650354487179
will-there-be-another-scottish-inde
2267.7698222209206
Will there be another Scottish Independence referendum by 2026?
1767225540000
Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03
cpmm-1
0
9.794974069893502
False
basic
public
1671453864338
WXTJ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It must be officially sanctioned by the UK Government. The next general election is likely to be at the end of 2024 or start of 2025, if the current Gov doesn't call one sooner. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": -0.00305796120841359, "week": -0.00305796120841359, "month": -0.006346852201290998}
0
{"creatorFee": 2.143656722866043, "platformFee": 1.0286549346581664, "liquidityFee": 0}
50
1000
WXTJ
1720162596587
0
https://firebasestorage.…ed7-9ff9afa6374e
1
33
1
https://firebasestorage.…5c7-3f171e835542
19
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671453903827}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1671453864625}, {"name"...
["uk-politics", "politics-default", "scottish-independence"]
0.10572654744963603
0.5
1720162592644
1719078981793
0.11804725958909915
gNTHUR4T9YD4JvtdwM8q
{"NO": 1008.9519657179692, "YES": 680.7216727238167}
0.16554447887275256
will-elon-musk-run-for-president-be
2370.6141626940375
Will Elon Musk run for US President before 2035?
2082758340000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
10.030132609426335
False
basic
public
1671455850208
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 19, 3:43pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Elon Musk run for President before 2035?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Elon Musk run for US President before 2035?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.0016064638969601475, "month": -0.0016064638969600642}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.2971507291448938, "platformFee": 1.2165795873729928, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
NathanpmYoung
1719664514150
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
2
39
1
https://firebasestorage.…b76-2d6f872c4115
24
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671455851058}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1719664511033
1671494218217
0.6391059237819893
jIbg3dg30sLFPwJk3orX
{"NO": 190.48754472859594, "YES": 126.71777487748197}
0.7269316149402031
will-montenegro-be-a-member-state-o
146.11680214279238
Will Montenegro be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
1956524340000
7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1671456917866
Nick el Chen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
150
NickelChen
1683211747802
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c
7
0
https://firebasestorage.…276-f0e44cf3c5ad
5
[{"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1671456928537}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1671456926746}, {"name": "Cen...
["central-europe", "europe", "european-union", "balkan"]
0.5
1683211747610
0.3909284086086879
dDFRIGyJ9sPem4WNTM2j
{"NO": 567.0925998089145, "YES": 12559.59112499992}
0
will-youtube-be-blocked-in-russia-b
22917.11514344475
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2023?
1704059940000
vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1
cpmm-1
0.1336538715077043
0.42845800459876315
True
basic
NO
public
1671458285333
AVS
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is inspired by the 2022 market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-youtube-be-blocked-in-russia-i", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Metaculus...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704089579916
2000
AVS
1704089580754
2.4
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c
2
126
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…1f2-02c12d2432ea
74
[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1671557473479}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671458285626}, {"name": "Internet Censor...
["russia", "internet", "internet-censorship", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.18301575932928638
0.5
1703919649899
1685949182466
False
0.03
vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1
0.781895486458206
EN5UBSuASwF1ZlLfpQx0
{"NO": 8820.217928919688, "YES": 160.0280118464699}
1
will-there-be-83500-confirmed-cases-e402502ec82e
13694.874935971806
Will there be >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?
1672433418023
wDBYhUbkEXVWOdvIpkXSs712u9o2
cpmm-1
0
2.2328293047766583
True
play
YES
public
1671458434026
Lifejacker
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if there are >=83,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year-end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of December 31, 2022, from Our World in Data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/monk...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672433418023
630
Lifejacker
1672422750641
0
https://firebasestorage.…4f0-c0fe63e428e9
32
0
https://firebasestorage.…bc1-6c80a832255e
22
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "wDBYhUbkEXVWOdvIpkXSs712u9o2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1671458446876}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "wDBYhUbkEXVWOdvIpkXSs712u9o2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1671458434381}, {"name": "Monkeypox...
["science-default", "health", "monkeypox"]
0.5
1672422747502
1671491358034
0.99
0.24162904123656326
ptX5JRwAX8GMXvJseC5Y
{"NO": 618.9256178531091, "YES": 13542.258619736249}
0
will-elon-musk-step-down-from-ceo-o
17017.110683125942
Will Elon Musk step down from CEO of Twitter before the end of Jan 2023?
1675227540000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
0.629547291719101
True
basic
NO
public
1671459068286
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1675228937127
1690
AmmonLam
1675222520497
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
5
85
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…e1f-595e3e39238b
75
[{"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1671459074449}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671459069163}, ...
["us-politics", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"]
0.5
1675222520345
1671464299551
0.01
0.44146555581397856
Z505P5dmge8m6mM90EGv
{"NO": 16.386885124759374, "YES": 4128.97841059691}
0
will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16720-a
4743.90259143702
Will Bitcoin price be above $16720 at Dec 19 3pm ET?
1671481174206
jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2
cpmm-1
0
3.9695353905465485
True
play
NO
public
1671461089987
Gene Fama
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671481174206
210
GeneFama
1671481171072
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c
11
0
https://firebasestorage.…2df-f4a3407cef47
9
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1671461090817}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146...
["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"]
0.5
1671481170959
0.08
0.36820012569372257
ttzZ1PLkgbdpa8fn2s3t
{"NO": 464.6130283653794, "YES": 4882.5796824225035}
0
will-my-average-score-for-all-my-fi
23014.30838789381
Will my average score for all my finals be 92% or more?
1672206471648
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
0.5615181136922858
True
basic
NO
public
1671462820041
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the average score for my 6 finals are 92% or higher. You can ask if questions if you'd like", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672206471648
1190
Wobbles
1672264326372
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
60
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…6bb-7588c1995e73
51
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671462820412}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1672206466330
1672264323044
0.07
0.11566411699794045
fROcrXsy1QDTvpz6Ll4l
{"NO": 926.9171957820658, "YES": 1341.2702361156057}
0.08289443570272303
will-global-total-co2-emissions-be
2371.2363259925014
Will global total CO2 emissions be below 40 billion tons in 2023 as estimated by Our World in Data?
1722380340000
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
cpmm-1
0
10.10946820137666
False
basic
public
1671465302207
DismalScientist
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "41.06 billion in 2021, 39.32 billion in 2020, 41.64 billion in 2019.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-co2-fossil-plus-land-use?country=~OWID_WRL", "typ...
BINARY
{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -6.376911056155121e-05, "month": -6.376911056160672e-05}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.1477650477325812, "platformFee": 0.14199370754209586, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
DismalScientist
1719789938325
0
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
3
15
1
1
https://firebasestorage.…c63-344cf4120821
7
[{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1671465302988}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128635383}]
["climate", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1719786845095
1712775164000
0.40200816059678157
IOuQcpXpJgc2T13Et2cf
{"NO": 827.3451069617926, "YES": 1156.5346479904636}
0.3247414665728658
will-us-total-co2-emissions-be-belo
3709.7583784299213
Will US total CO2 emissions be below 5 billion tons in 2023?
1727823540000
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
cpmm-1
0
9.808370567390334
False
basic
public
1671465497948
DismalScientist
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5.12 billion in 2021. 4.82 billion in 2020. 5.35 billion in 2019.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As estimated on our world in data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/gr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.006820561797097502}
0
{"creatorFee": 10.634896006770733, "platformFee": 10.14378587327511, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
DismalScientist
1718410710955
0
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
1
32
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…909-b1ac7dd8376e
3
[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130476635}]
["new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1718410707847
1711315216066
0.39333471473766984
GDc5y8etI9zlHj42SZbv
{"NO": 740.2321898260127, "YES": 1380.7894670323435}
0.2579285241800453
will-the-percent-of-the-world-livin
2030.3163232306727
Will the percent of the world living in extreme poverty be below 8% in 2023?
1727823540000
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
cpmm-1
0
9.821592087744154
False
basic
public
1671466075462
DismalScientist
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8.44% in 2018 and 10.79% in 2015.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:...
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.03711636563761411}
0
{"creatorFee": 3.966880794849888, "platformFee": 1.123407020299368, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
DismalScientist
1719136765824
0
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
1
33
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f54-b4a6281e490d
12
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671466076382}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130740691}]
["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1719136762750
1710976570206
0.3398719480857394
31jyayODunH5CO0MIlaT
{"NO": 411.8921285937737, "YES": 2808.121937032273}
0
will-i-consider-the-twitter-ceo-rep
2103.9415434504967
Will I consider the Twitter CEO replacement the 'most entertaining outcome' by April 2023?
1680365400000
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
cpmm-1
0
0.6925199558104618
True
play
NO
public
1671466249603
MP
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1347126794172948483?t=a9RmGobEkdPkke4DXR9GVw&s=19", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1347126794172948483?t=a9RmGobEkdPkke4DXR9GVw&s=19", "class": n...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680374125424
830
MP
1710451899913
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
15
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…453-80963d2e2a2f
11
[{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
0.5
1680362242936
1680333148492
0.07
0.272022559020099
MqyzScocCTiXGGvqWXEi
{"NO": 872.308929597465, "YES": 1276.4867334276585}
0.2034113295942679
will-the-percent-of-indians-in-extr
1151.8333903471123
Will the percent of Indians in extreme poverty be below 7 percent in 2023?
1726700340000
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
cpmm-1
0
9.647146746517642
False
basic
public
1671466260055
DismalScientist
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It was 10.01% in 2019 and 18% in 2015.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "h...
BINARY
{"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.1837469279265667, "platformFee": 1.1837469279265667, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
DismalScientist
1714244451001
0
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
1
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…3f5-c58f4b178574
8
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671466260927}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129052354}]
["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1714244371813
1714244448769
0.605674761074832
H0OFMrKjSyaET7OBLnzc
{"NO": 1004.0084195949743, "YES": 976.5217877331918}
0.6122846185577636
will-the-percent-of-pakistanis-in-e
1492.1040237006478
Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023?
1726700340000
St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2
cpmm-1
0
9.69574731068457
False
basic
public
1671466394688
DismalScientist
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4.93% in 2018 but that was pre-Covid and flooding.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs":...
BINARY
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
DismalScientist
1712206901632
0
https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e
1
21
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…b2b-20ec95f99846
9
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671466395545}, {"name": "Pakistan", "slug": "pakistan", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "JoknPgAz8OMSWb3FxF8G", "createdTime": 1675557750375}, {"name": "�...
["economics-default", "pakistan", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.10154904537472875
0.5
1711913292149
1704135220753
0.11867022190208261
vbWhe4yunuTAALN5mUIE
{"NO": 500.10317995509547, "YES": 4993.53748507311}
0
by-the-end-of-2023-will-any-realwor-bda1fc0a02cd
6490.030288744038
By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 50 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?
1704096000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
1.5585796409673325
True
play
NO
public
1671468074323
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Duplicate of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-any-realwor", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", with ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704154135697
690
IsaacKing
1704154135876
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
0
38
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…d51-dfd226e21561
14
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672173439054}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132856161}, {"name": "...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.10659562148504736
0.5
1704095885799
1682101915760
0.01
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.17763718235154458
iRc6zxWS5mOefcJsXWYB
{"NO": 58.34883967869401, "YES": 1711.6266226948203}
0
will-a-costa-rican-win-la-vuelta-a
1957.914899692034
Will a Costa Rican win La Vuelta a Costa Rica?
1671994800000
946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
cpmm-1
0
5.689271348951516
True
play
NO
public
1671469591039
JAAM
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "La Vuelta a Costa Rica is the cycling tour of Costa Rica part of the UCI America Tour and ends on December 25: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vuelta_Ciclista_a_Costa_Rica", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "at...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672012912156
170
egroj
1671993583692
0
https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686
8
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…22d-ca9803fc6cf0
7
[{"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1671469591369}, {"name": "Costa Rica", "slug": "costa-rica", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "q78SkrHCcEe47gwGIXc2", "createdTime": 1671469617664}]
["road-bicycle-racing", "costa-rica"]
0.5
1671993583592
0.01
0.3227059029077335
cGJQtSD6cZPUajFuAP2N
{"NO": 803.2386080923887, "YES": 3530.329043329502}
0
destiny-stream-before-midnight
14661.602940676286
Destiny stream before midnight?
1671512340000
k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1
cpmm-1
0
0.4048380239439431
True
basic
NO
public
1671470104380
Butidigress
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Before midnight EST, December 19th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671518377811
1570
Butidigress
1671511680787
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XmJ94Qz8SgF05tqF6WJS9d0nGUVmZ24o0-qBH=s96-c
79
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…902-ff2da48a6b4a
62
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671470104871}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1671511679550
1671494310224
0.21
0.30403282000516874
LwUbCVghno2uPYAvH3xY
{"NO": 276.886416963422, "YES": 635.0276896656139}
0
will-i-be-regularly-checking-mastod
431.97733577774187
Will I be regularly checking Mastodon around the end of 2023?
1703928024332
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
cpmm-1
0
1.2242794970311197
True
play
NO
public
1671470516034
tailcalled
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am looking at moving from Twitter to Mastodon. I don't know if I will complete the move and stay at Mastodon, but I thought it might be interesting to create some markets on it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703928024332
370
tailcalled
1703928025026
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxeZfsEiMzmTe5-vZ4oy9KNLEAgzRxC3sy9FWoUvg=s96-c
17
0
https://firebasestorage.…983-930c7df1f9d3
9
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671470516898}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131287733}]
["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1691778604452
0.16
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
0.34382755476179194
De81lattoQKDk07JDLvk
{"NO": 48.80337725530501, "YES": 826.8429845412403}
0
will-i-have-made-more-than-400-toot
976.0808945494148
Will I have made more than 400 toots on Mastodon by the end of 2023?
1703928048045
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
cpmm-1
0
3.416392444294134
True
play
NO
public
1671470672415
tailcalled
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am looking at moving from Twitter to Mastodon. I don't know if I will complete the move and stay at Mastodon, but I thought it might be interesting to create some markets on it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703928048045
150
tailcalled
1703928048878
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxeZfsEiMzmTe5-vZ4oy9KNLEAgzRxC3sy9FWoUvg=s96-c
6
0
https://firebasestorage.…613-b7d1f616ef58
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671470672774}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "cr...
["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1694946840539
1671471007575
0.03
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
0.16569805053036904
C0YHBS6cq9ZVr005BixO
{"NO": 207.1830722849458, "YES": 3297.1320069402013}
0
will-ukraine-be-banned-by-fifa-or-u
3307.562463634345
Will Ukraine be banned by FIFA or UEFA?
1704063540000
TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2
cpmm-1
0
2.4126727413194473
True
play
NO
public
1671470803013
Tomek ⚡ K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Ukrainian Football Association (UAF) has been warned by FIFA and UEFA that they could face an international suspension... ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "read more: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704218477801
350
itsTomekK
1704218478049
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c
2
18
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…f93-1d29da737685
8
[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1671470803329}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1675288816361}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "s...
["soccer", "uefa", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.1012755246837013
0.5
1704062466770
1704218468876
False
0.01
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.5812562038931092
OtsZ3sn4mjrdnxBQYkHV
{"NO": 283.94458298776465, "YES": 366.91121729240535}
0.5178902463025848
how-many-followers-will-i-have-on-m-b448de0543ac
69.97062391271155
How many followers will I have on Mastodon by the end of 2023?
1704063540000
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
cpmm-1
0
1.0763146548615399
True
play
MKT
public
1671470954835
tailcalled
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am looking at moving from Twitter to Mastodon. I don't know if I will complete the move and stay at Mastodon, but I thought it might be interesting to create some markets on it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704066963505
330
tailcalled
1704066963774
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxeZfsEiMzmTe5-vZ4oy9KNLEAgzRxC3sy9FWoUvg=s96-c
5
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…fbb-d27eda0ad849
2
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671470955167}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701141102882}]
["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5933093148839751
1703928868114
1703928243793
0.5178902463025848
S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2
0.6899138606777258
rPxW4rwIIuhLU62m2Rys
{"NO": 6022.740246137603, "YES": 150.9124823432234}
1
will-the-destinydebates-tiktok-reac
10350.175692554454
Will the DestinyDebates TikTok reach 91k followers by the end of the year?
1672360709499
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
1.663426491774083
True
play
YES
public
1671471438271
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "destinydebates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tiktok.com/@destinydebates", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " TikTok account reaches 91k o...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672360709499
530
Wobbles
1672360707370
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
27
0
https://firebasestorage.…f23-c1589cc1cf57
23
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671471438815}, {"name": "TikTok", "slug": "tiktok", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "MjTB5PFWedvqLHXO0vKz", "createdTime": 1671471504184}]
["destinygg", "tiktok"]
0.5
1672360707222
1672347523444
0.97
0.5146029750144276
BzwjfYnLfmrvRjBMMa2f
{"NO": 4173.597023008499, "YES": 34.16831936474955}
1
will-the-stevenbonnelii-tiktok-acco
5978.822047014832
Will the Stevenbonnelii TikTok account reach 48k followers by the end of the year?
1672367253969
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
2.863903103798531
True
play
YES
public
1671471827288
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stevenbonnellii", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tiktok.com/@stevenbonnellii", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " tiktok account reaches 48k...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672367253969
410
Wobbles
1672367231803
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
21
0
https://firebasestorage.…363-1c142ec1314e
17
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671471827814}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1672367228720
1672347553967
0.96
0.42432727884478855
qTzrB5YCpGiXBHb7cEgZ
{"NO": 26.98389421891488, "YES": 643.1028097622175}
0
will-destiny-be-live-by-3pm-cst-tod
1202.751795438625
Will Destiny be live by 3pm CST today?
1671490011909
UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1
cpmm-1
0
3.90112258299227
True
play
NO
public
1671472404126
Wobbles
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny said that he'd be back today, so will he be live by 3pm CST?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-19 2:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671490011909
110
Wobbles
1671490050574
0
https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca
6
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…a96-0d5cb2be1722
7
[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671472404834}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1671490006592
1671490048971
0.35
0.3085322643128483
qRTBfvLxfFAGCcvhganR
{"NO": 266.2458753205183, "YES": 3847.556906634285}
0
will-there-be-credible-doping-alleg
4070.755673930314
Will there be credible doping allegations against Jonas Vingegaard in 2023?
1704067140000
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
cpmm-1
0.20881083285103047
1.0706610391860627
True
play
NO
public
1671473251463
Nico
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credible accusations reported by several mainstream outlets. There doesn't have to be an official UCI investigation. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mechanical doping, performance-enhancing d...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704067927612
620
NicoDelon
1704067928033
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb
0
23
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…715-5393bf33f58f
9
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671473252306}, {"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1671473274375}, {"name"...
["sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.13332092279237293
0.5
1702530989732
1703173262379
0.03
uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2
0.45461662300483
Nauyz32VvvgxwFmDQ7oP
{"NO": 76.01717663367673, "YES": 440.4295002807291}
0
spoi-will-the-destiny-orbiter-marke-c6ba029a859f
798.0666856004317
SPOI | Will the Destiny orbiter market increase in value? (Dec. 19 to Dec. 25)
1672041540000
9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13
cpmm-1
0
2.2220540716169364
True
play
NO
public
1671473480463
johnleoks
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Steven and the Parasocials' Orbiter Index", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an index that attempts to gauge market sentiment on the value of orbiters in general to Destiny's stream. At the...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672489780599
190
johnleoks
1710218554133
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c
9
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…e36-f36b5b1027f8
10
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
["destinygg"]
0.5
1671899009450
0.13
m1InA0FwLHi5fPAPNPIJ
who-will-be-the-first-person-to-be
1521.729240630504
Who will be the first person to be on Destiny's stream once he streams again?
1671682113695
9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.649422825543814
True
play
75623884799a
public
1671474116528
johnleoks
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Main channel only. Streaming DnD on the side channel does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671682113695
840
johnleoks
1710218604242
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c
27
0
DISABLED
[{"id": "4d9a5b1bc22c", "prob": 0.016947363726360083, "text": "Aba", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.44503568410508987, "userId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 25.81484114929746, "textFts": "'aba':1", "contractId": "m1InA0FwLHi5fPAPNPIJ", "createdTime": 1671474116528, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "w...
https://firebasestorage.…16f-eb30605a785e
28
[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]
["destinygg"]
1671681395853
1671678765484
{"75623884799a": 100}
True
0.150731558784787
yeXZwdXRgXLnw3zMqOGb
{"NO": 253.4505770873634, "YES": 5569.967137901299}
0
will-lionel-messi-retire-before-the
10330.301660025649
Will Lionel Messi retire before the end of 2023?
1704045910512
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
2.227357072847685
True
play
NO
public
1671474384445
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Argentina skipper Lionel Messi denied rumours of his retirement post the World Cup win against France, saying he wishes to keep playing for his country.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704045910512
430
AmmonLam
1704045911272
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
1
23
0
https://firebasestorage.…b57-0af5bdaeb8b9
10
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671474385218}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132085242}]
["sports-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.11237971209803817
0.5
1703971789699
0.01
b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3
0.30872258172295125
2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp
{"NO": 721.0158719235683, "YES": 1813.534762244574}
0.15078337365006436
will-lionel-messi-retire-before-the-e18f65f54b65
2033.6260342096884
Will Lionel Messi retire before the end of 2024?
1735707540000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
9.729284596295592
False
basic
public
1671474399512
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Argentina skipper Lionel Messi denied rumours of his retirement post the World Cup win against France, saying he wishes to keep playing for his country.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.02265675388260338}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.001543133331926, "platformFee": 1.8598243703035562, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
AmmonLam
1719621644892
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
0
39
1
https://firebasestorage.…864-b120adac7dc3
16
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671474399907}]
["sports-default"]
0.5
1719621641820
1714926440725
0.17943788301951552
iu3AT5rQZzvmKs91jgPO
{"NO": 256.85422039587166, "YES": 1787.6291069183192}
0
will-ukraine-be-banned-from-playing
1993.8324318251264
Will Ukraine be banned from playing soccer by FIFA before the end of 2023?
1704085140000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
4.878818632061897e-16
1.898827256140584
True
play
NO
public
1671474572947
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Ukrainian Football Association (UAF) has been warned by FIFA and UEFA that they could face an international suspension\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-could-banned-...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704088738562
390
AmmonLam
1704088738883
0.2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
0
19
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…ffb-4feeb2139716
10
[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1671474573909}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1675288816362}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "s...
["soccer", "uefa", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.10199490041903685
0.5
1703574984781
False
0.03
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
0.22216839035691777
OYsr0hLIh0WNFnq7e01w
{"NO": 798.291227655188, "YES": 6578.348780993208}
0
will-tsla-price-be-above-150-at-the
9498.986002674554
Will TSLA price be above $150 at the end of 2022?
1672549140000
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
0.5506187158356739
True
basic
NO
public
1671474636057
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672583430617
1370
AmmonLam
1672544670952
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
0
68
0
1
https://firebasestorage.…150-2e7473418847
56
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671474636987}]
["economics-default"]
0.5
1672544670848
0.03
0.670669891471988
SvVByAYc9uprLJAyrD5B
{"NO": 10474.387896274568, "YES": 11.124827692814506}
1
will-any-manifold-market-staff-leav
10436.532252701994
Will any Manifold Market staff leave a comment on Isaac's "69 market"?
1671505070731
hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2
cpmm-1
0
4.64177579093397
True
play
YES
public
1671475035572
Ammon Lam
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probability-be-at", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Isaac's 69 market has reached record volu...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671505070731
130
AmmonLam
1671505130872
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c
5
0
https://firebasestorage.…240-f8e983d66262
4
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671475036737}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1671505065662
1671505128639
0.95
9FrMrOVDMjZzmrMJeN0P
which-charity-will-i-send-10k-to-th
435.4678835182466
Which charity will I send $10k to this year?
1671679150481
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.712848348281056
True
play
c331248a78a7
public
1671475522236
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm looking to donate some of my mana balance this year, at least $10k worth of mana (drawn from my mana salary). Where will I send it?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the past, I've mostly...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671679150481
560
Austin
1671680985567
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
2
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "b484cf936ce3", "prob": 0.042245161279118947, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.7097873717409182, "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.091837956453862, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9FrMrOVDMjZzmrMJeN0P", "createdTime": 1671475522682, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
13
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1671475522548}]
["effective-altruism"]
1671487193328
1671680982961
{"c331248a78a7": 100}
True
0.7575804031559198
bemVfor7TGMOkcfEgKwP
{"NO": 1078.8144772662367, "YES": 89.26883735367473}
1
will-aella-use-the-word-railed-in-a
1123.297646660327
Will Aella use the word “railed” in a tweet between now and February 1, 2023?
1671525513349
V75x7sflYwSFJJXCq2S1HKzONJo2
cpmm-1
0
3.2170754446210594
True
play
YES
public
1671479122707
oh no
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Replies and quote tweets included.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671525513349
190
hectohenry
1671526837461
0
https://firebasestorage.…5db-25287312334c
10
0
https://firebasestorage.…491-85dc1982c052
12
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "V75x7sflYwSFJJXCq2S1HKzONJo2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671479123098}]
["fun"]
0.5
1671517219498
1671526833730
0.77
0.6396839737949158
1IZUOC0L0WmjoZlcqc1j
{"NO": 1109.1880434827772, "YES": 19.880692579366723}
1
will-i-get-through-all-my-rulesguru
1112.2636669460198
Will I get through all my RulesGuru emails today?
1671526728159
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
5.121532081093072
True
play
YES
public
1671480066917
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a several month backlog on emails about potential errors on my website ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "RulesGuru", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://rulesguru.net/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671526728159
90
IsaacKing
1671526898949
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
3
0
https://firebasestorage.…741-2c86266bbf02
3
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671480067226}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1671526723895
1671526895709
0.73