CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.8653360655502813

AGZnSwdNhHrn3qMOKhMJ

{"NO": 4581.969172090598, "YES": 170.40932461187504}

1

will-destiny-stream-on-the-21st-789814632ddb

5948.449450273745

Will Destiny Stream on the 21st?

1671668251919

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

3.4537333865899233

True

play

YES

public

1671557663885

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 21st, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671668251919

410

Wobbles

1671668248313

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

21

0

https://firebasestorage.…78b-a71ecd7d6814

18

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671557664339}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1671668248165

1671664662606

0.99

0.8638005440572053

ly7R3vajaEDjYGQPXPtI

{"NO": 7288.3193306148905, "YES": 158.0217185134902}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-22nd

7232.655609305492

Will Destiny go live on Dec 22nd?

1671745957962

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

3.214737912455393

True

play

YES

public

1671557724313

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 22nd, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671745957962

310

Wobbles

1671745955142

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

15

0

https://firebasestorage.…91b-84bd4cc82285

14

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671557724866}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1671745954989

1671745644715

0.99

0.7896682982537289

Ol5q2eorHkhJtiP7cD3l

{"NO": 7899.887805209473, "YES": 180.10193096725698}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-23rd

8743.522828999106

Will Destiny go live on Dec 23rd?

1671839827957

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

2.1156157684072596

True

play

YES

public

1671557755749

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 23rd, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671839827957

430

Wobbles

1671839823780

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

22

0

https://firebasestorage.…940-0d9aebdf424f

18

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671557756212}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1671839823680

0.99

0.6716866381003593

Ns5YXmm1EMPOLFjjCUSV

{"NO": 6256.330117850852, "YES": 341.3153598258166}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-christmas-e

6626.699031103506

Will Destiny go live on Christmas Eve?

1671913121426

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

0.8062535102397961

True

basic

YES

public

1671557782954

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 24th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671913121426

1030

Wobbles

1671913113479

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

1

52

0

https://firebasestorage.…961-557b70e7706c

47

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671557783411}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1671913113371

0.94

0.69333725524217

EZTB6ZW4k2ycfrjUIZ4A

{"NO": 1218.7511098107732, "YES": 85.22128198851118}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-christmas

1862.319329318409

Will Destiny go live on Christmas?

1672007082613

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

2.645183127585137

True

play

YES

public

1671557813663

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 25th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672007082613

210

Wobbles

1672007080905

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

10

0

https://firebasestorage.…46c-5fe263266b08

9

[]

0.5

1672007077937

0.93

0.6914836032319367

tCXDdA2CqYuBbFz00yQ1

{"NO": 2103.078165161315, "YES": 198.65596635057005}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-26th

2069.2896665011294

Will Destiny go live on Dec 26th?

1672114791820

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

1.3887227547754377

True

play

YES

public

1671557869483

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 26th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672114791820

430

Wobbles

1672114788321

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

1

22

0

https://firebasestorage.…32a-ff20ef9a9053

19

[]

0.5

1672114788221

0.91

0.32194827019589695

q6BZGfgAdWqsZXdXWrl9

{"NO": 189.29715024547343, "YES": 1725.914325016351}

0

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-27th

2502.5157004488146

Will Destiny go live on Dec 27th

1672204114770

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

1.400472572848148

True

play

NO

public

1671557898208

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 27th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672204114770

490

Wobbles

1672200358473

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

24

0

https://firebasestorage.…a27-c49848593fef

22

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672154993448}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1672200358235

0.05

0.6727840968977334

Ea7AIethlbwYU6R0PPcN

{"NO": 4315.413839740474, "YES": 118.70531677353347}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-28th

5722.326587206334

Will Destiny go live on Dec 28th?

1672260436113

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

1.9015667038931996

True

play

YES

public

1671557931713

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 28th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672260436113

510

Wobbles

1672260432497

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

26

0

https://firebasestorage.…9d3-d4e03274bc08

23

[]

0.5

1672260432346

1672256073651

0.97

0.6492246502035078

U6DtFqJeOseFO7I7YVNX

{"NO": 8065.32867085093, "YES": 304.63994609003976}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-29th

14064.597692633912

Will Destiny go live on Dec 29th?

1672364707769

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

0.8282364101395525

True

basic

YES

public

1671558020746

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 29th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672364707769

1250

Wobbles

1672364703782

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

63

0

https://firebasestorage.…951-ad3a97c0538f

49

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672155016135}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1672364703611

0.96

0.6371083982797386

MBtuoDrXxevQxT47ci15

{"NO": 17595.03216230676, "YES": 174.48606268406616}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-dec-30th

22225.25360788925

Will Destiny go live on Dec 30th?

1672450302972

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

1.2573553115301443

True

basic

YES

public

1671558089722

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 30th, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672450302972

1250

Wobbles

1672450300401

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

2

62

0

https://firebasestorage.…219-c6746577bde3

47

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672154976797}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1672450300233

1672441092705

0.99

0.761373225100644

mg1iWGZl5jeqcstSdzq7

{"NO": 5460.6404636351435, "YES": 153.84631160380908}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-new-years-e

8427.903792483221

Will Destiny go live on New Years Eve?

1672545018252

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

2.122404391446815

True

play

YES

public

1671558118684

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Dec 31st, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672545018252

470

Wobbles

1672545015330

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

23

0

https://firebasestorage.…c9d-15cfa21cd52c

21

[]

0.5

1672545015185

0.98

0.7246562929736485

Re06eULXO0yvVBztqhxw

{"NO": 6466.774708416254, "YES": 246.5237114744357}

1

will-destiny-go-live-on-new-years-d

9229.42738235692

Will Destiny go live on New Years Day?

1672624056289

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

1.25778702504727

True

play

YES

public

1671558150733

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "goes live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (on any channel) during Jan 1st, ends 11:59pm CST. Being live past midnight doesn't count, he must ", "type": "text"}, {"text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672624056289

710

Wobbles

1710218561921

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

36

0

https://firebasestorage.…9d4-c04a7754f59f

33

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1672623846384

1672624045574

0.98

0.40945601716793867

OOSPD9QcnyOswm18H7ge

{"NO": 127.16818426244646, "YES": 3983.672050872949}

0

will-destiny-be-live-by-3pm-tomorro

4618.933192734043

Will Destiny be live by 3pm tomorrow?

1671656474793

UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1

cpmm-1

0

1.4589361332092379

True

play

NO

public

1671558337975

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny goes live by 3pm CST on Dec 21st", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-21 3:02 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671656474793

610

Wobbles

1671687355587

0

https://firebasestorage.…e8e-ad0f7255d2ca

31

0

https://firebasestorage.…6fb-b376adcb3d5e

27

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671558338473}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1671656442571

1671687352533

0.04

0.5749938023937378

28W33DeqnySv6vp6ezNq

{"NO": 151.1649690022597, "YES": 145.72209486468483}

1

was-the-wager-listed-within-the-mar

167.32699373379214

Was the Wager Listed Within the Market Description Authored by ChatGPT?

1672466340000

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

0

2.112426001424733

True

play

YES

public

1671559346789

Patrick Delaney

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Was the following wager created by ChatGPT or a human?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES - means yo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672947643065

150

PatrickDelaney

1673066372089

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

6

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…c1a-61b45c254c5c

4

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1671559347625}]

["experimental"]

0.5

1672407448251

1673066369285

0.58

0.6130817997411424

laQtPI9eRXw2ApOhADwl

{"NO": 164.9600474977724, "YES": 108.6724062108621}

1

was-the-wager-listed-within-the-mar-2314b19f3dbe

55.039952502227614

Was the Wager Listed Within the Market Description Authored by ChatGPT?

1672466340000

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

cpmm-1

0

2.45915653106434

True

play

YES

public

1671559503729

Patrick Delaney

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Was the following wager created by ChatGPT or a human?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES - means you are betting that the ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672947596901

130

PatrickDelaney

1673066325522

0

https://firebasestorage.…1af-8cfff16b598a

4

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…ef6-a90d719a38cf

4

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1671559504529}]

["experimental"]

0.5

1672407454877

1673066320861

0.71

0.7341661035371367

QzyVLcAvnNFDb60TCe1z

{"NO": 5619.3202220202365, "YES": 45.4427836134746}

1

will-matt-levine-release-a-money-st-92be9cf9b896

5540.252874955624

Will Matt Levine release a Money Stuff on 21st December?

1671649828897

gfURiiGFYeUoUzuzTubkNaWdSvM2

cpmm-1

0

3.8360782312865163

True

play

YES

public

1671561331782

Neon Nuke

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if a Money Stuff is released on the 21st December (GMT).", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671649828897

210

NeonNuke

1671649823712

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2yqqndqMg0NSK_6VR7HEge3xPnAJS8LGyU0wF4uw=s96-c

11

0

https://firebasestorage.…a9d-1afa7f3b7d58

10

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "gfURiiGFYeUoUzuzTubkNaWdSvM2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671561332609}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1671649823551

1671649813975

0.94

0.6593454250987993

dl6hNnQiwY6FlKyz9SH5

{"NO": 290.3416114582168, "YES": 124.38021801646585}

1

will-santa-claus-visit-my-house-thi

204.44843547349322

Will Santa Claus visit my house this year?

1672004348299

bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1

cpmm-1

0

2.180831999133952

True

play

YES

public

1671561654795

Deleted

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Santa Claus, also known as Father Christmas, Saint Nicholas, Saint Nick, Kris Kringle, or simply Santa, brings children gifts during the late evening and overnight hours on Christmas Eve of toys and candy or coal or nothing, depending on whether th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672004348299

170

ForrestTaylor

1672747642067

0

https://firebasestorage.…5e1-37cc37c99460

8

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-bfe0bfd19cf1

9

[{"name": "Christmas", "slug": "christmas", "userId": "bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1", "groupId": "09Mvc5gSTwr2TRn2BV28", "createdTime": 1671561654978}]

["christmas"]

0.5

1672004335475

1672747641284

0.66

0.25691463316972407

tGiuq610U54faV2j2nBK

{"NO": 928.6881517858407, "YES": 1172.5368888273488}

0.21497074584263318

will-the-uk-be-a-member-state-of-th

927.3996724844029

Will the UK be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

1956524340000

7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2

cpmm-1

0

9.618173853623638

False

basic

public

1671562706763

Nick el Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.007741400855461267}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6924315538292716, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NickelChen

1719244606849

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c

2

18

0

https://firebasestorage.…702-72432045a985

9

[{"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1671562720741}, {"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1671562717565}, {"name": "UK ...

["european-union", "europe", "uk-politics"]

0.5

1719243767547

1719244605227

0.24399912567753332

QM2nqHv5Ssn2hLxwUOyG

{"NO": 1191.187255733662, "YES": 2655.177750935078}

0.12648086660830768

will-koi-be-the-first-species-we-up

8513.333519563697

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

2240611140000

z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2

cpmm-1

0

9.287995459517113

False

basic

public

1671564607325

Nathan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5PZTUbVGl6.png?alt=media&token=e0902d0f-17de-4dbe-aa61-45907f90ca26", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Downsides to Ko...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9579991022596671, "platformFee": 0.9579991022596671, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1560

NathanHelmBurger

1715719459212

0

https://firebasestorage.…db4-12b4caf5f952

2

67

0

46

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1671564653142}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673105297788}, {"name": "Uplif...

["science-default", "futurism", "uplifting"]

0.5

1715719455973

1671853542134

0.4817898711000672

2F5WT4nayjeWphq3k6C9

{"NO": 21.19860537153275, "YES": 2463.9221852119454}

0

will-the-approval-rating-of-the-cdc

3503.1027188836188

Will the approval rating of the CDC drop again next year?

1698946571562

uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2

cpmm-1

0

3.6955589329691794

True

play

NO

public

1671565579441

Nico

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As compared to Gallup's latest update, published October 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if the rating does not change, goes up, or drops by strictly less than 2 percentag...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1698946571562

250

NicoDelon

1698946381022

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…e34-47ac6ceec956

9

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671565593828}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1671565579856}, {"name": "CDC", "sl...

["health", "us-politics", "cdc"]

0.5

1698946380885

1698945851158

0.01

ETlSxBydKrh1VVMaYQDS

will-the-approval-rating-of-us-inte

222.31814332673125

Will the approval rating of US intelligence agencies go up or down next year?

1698945514441

uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.813252649342188

True

play

bc93ed058506

public

1671566113212

Nico

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By 2 or more percentage points, as compared to Gallup's latest update, published October 2022. If one of the agencies (FBI or CIA) changes enough but the other one stays constant (unlikely but who knows), I'll resolve as if both had changed.", "typ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1698945514441

500

NicoDelon

1698945487393

0

https://firebasestorage.…7d0-430cf8822ebb

9

0

DISABLED

[{"id": "26e3d44a99e6", "prob": 0.3044231470383896, "text": "Both FBI and CIA up", "index": 0, "poolNo": 56.38998480345024, "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 128.84555116694406, "textFts": "'cia':4 'fbi':2", "contractId": "ETlSxBydKrh1VVMaYQDS", "createdTime": 1671566113212, "probCh...

https://firebasestorage.…daa-75b80aa79d85

6

[{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1672585285497}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1672584704395}, {"name": "CIA", "slug": "cia", "u...

["us-politics", "fbi", "cia", "polls", "crime", "ancient-markets"]

1697557685594

1698945486614

{"bc93ed058506": 100}

True

0.2406212462185458

RxyJmgAtmw3l7L37OuYX

{"NO": 800.5803918611779, "YES": 8081.027993464543}

0

will-i-be-forced-to-move-due-to-sta

20554.527700713974

Will I be forced to move due to stalking/doxxing before the end of 2023?

1704088740000

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0.22044194489913027

0.5034333303915446

True

basic

NO

public

1671566162796

Aella

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the primary reason for a move is due to fear for my safety, and the move is completed before the end of 2023, I will resolve this market as 'yes'.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704552957867

1440

Aella

1704552958150

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…e20-ad734e4c319a

1

79

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…b1b-86aaa8451a33

36

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671566163581}, {"name": "Aella", "slug": "aella", "groupId": "PtIApT55aHEw0uQB4lNo", "createdTime": 1690737203560}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-res...

["law-order", "aella", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.19575877651803683

0.5

1703972765550

1698876339758

False

0.03

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

0.4197512857565717

wKoeD49zmY2KO7tnqStm

{"NO": 220.8262881108596, "YES": 7226.463334234}

0

will-the-sun-newspaper-endorse-the

8745.743230673095

Will the Sun newspaper endorse the Conservative Party at the next UK general election?

1720027110243

XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1

cpmm-1

0

10.548910975811788

True

basic

NO

public

1671566275582

Fion

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by this market: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Nico/will-the-party-endorsed-by-the-sun", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Nico/will-the-party-endorsed-by-the-sun...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.2027061512522788, "month": -0.28055734457407155}

0

{"creatorFee": 40.31256408124854, "platformFee": 1.2280280002101558, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1720027110243

1000

Fion

1720094174189

0

https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed

2

51

5

https://firebasestorage.…2f0-5d887a010240

9

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1671566275837}, {"name": "UK Conservative Party", "slug": "uk-conservative-party", "groupId": "ba6ec793-8de3-4383-9c33-f6d1f44dfa2c", "createdTime": 1694320601609}, {"name": "🇬🇧 ...

["uk-politics", "uk-conservative-party", "-uk-general-election-2024"]

0.5

1720027075464

1720094173006

0.02

XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1

0.8734024158925716

dqcBmaHiOhgv2Xv5rahk

{"NO": 3250.3654548383147, "YES": 449.03099631436766}

1

will-nayib-bukele-win-el-salvadors

3845.312188276801

Will Nayib Bukele win El Salvador's 2024 elections?

1707087600000

scJCDVw02GOMdl0F4i0h22zrliC2

cpmm-1

0

1.6228996997201612

True

play

YES

public

1671567425516

Jesus Of Sivar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nayib Bukele", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is El Salvador's current president (known internationally for making of El S...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1707158535443

630

JesusDeSivar

1707158685537

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7pCXyaGGCEi9uygwKW700yzJUAcEwW856x-csZ=s96-c

1

32

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…097-f04c1ad2e76d

11

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "scJCDVw02GOMdl0F4i0h22zrliC2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671567479280}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "scJCDVw02GOMdl0F4i0h22zrliC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671567426337}, {"name": "L...

["politics-default", "world-default", "latin-america", "international-elections", "nayib-bukele", "el-salvador"]

0.5

1707079720714

1707158683870

False

0.98

scJCDVw02GOMdl0F4i0h22zrliC2

0.4925768929866435

CXKaADYyjd92cJdUWdVG

{"NO": 223.9159586877181, "YES": 22327.070505283074}

0

will-sciences-top-breakthrough-of-t

37449.693081739926

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?

1702592315215

Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23

cpmm-1

4.0203788109502153e-16

0.7583616303090941

True

basic

NO

public

1671569235098

dp

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.science.org/content/article/breakthrough-2022", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", Science Magazine proclaimed the James Webb Space Telescope the gr...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702592315215

2205

dp

1702600823842

1.4

https://firebasestorage.…2ab-c6314de603e5

5

215

0

https://firebasestorage.…ca1-0430b2f94058

16

[{"name": "AI Impacts", "slug": "ai-impacts", "userId": "Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23", "groupId": "q3Su0NeV9ta4DqhqlIEq", "createdTime": 1671569235356}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181909121}]

["ai-impacts", "ai"]

0.15511131893445412

0.5

1702592308919

1702600822153

False

0.01

Wx3iu5xJgMTRw6GN9h2lxo4wSn23

0.5107438852783764

Nb9EQhShyKyebGnLm4MG

{"NO": 294.93590170958754, "YES": 284.20548064630503}

1

nfl-will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-w

509.8819051097508

[NFL] Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win against the New York Jets on Thursday night?

1671758100000

seKeeSLlcHXY8A2caa8eiJjqLlb2

cpmm-1

0

1.187848238077599

True

play

YES

public

1671570169742

Godspeed

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NFL Week 16:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thursday N...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671768827376

290

Godspeed

1671755969814

0

https://firebasestorage.…5a6-706e5668b547

15

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…d44-31aed462adbe

13

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "seKeeSLlcHXY8A2caa8eiJjqLlb2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671570170219}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181982925}]

["sports-default", "nfl"]

0.5

1671755969634

False

0.52

0.4472871632485413

sT6FCSX6v8N6l2YAkPTu

{"NO": 75.45837245528436, "YES": 109.99999999999999}

0

will-i-get-to-bed-by-1120pm-at-leas-09d40bea9bfb

20

Will I get to bed by 11:20pm at least 4 times this week? (My goal is actually only 11:20pm x 3)

1672157520000

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

3.0564452796694868

True

play

NO

public

1671570782404

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "www.Emile.chat", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.Emile.chat", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672197655537

90

Charlie

1672074170331

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

2

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…add-af79ebd9f211

3

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671570783260}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1672074170178

1671633995288

0.36

0.21786659693967647

bMLpZSeXwNqD9YVvkTrq

{"NO": 233.63180339025965, "YES": 2170.7930832021216}

0

will-there-will-be-successful-ukrai

2086.680770805272

Will there will be successful Ukrainian Army offensive before 28 February 2023?

1677542340000

bQWgT1r8tfWMBoicrHP6fPKwTz03

cpmm-1

1.6929476444794058

True

play

NO

public

1671571105650

Wola Obiadu

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Offensive will be reported in major news source (BBC, Reuters) and it will move Ukrainian territory for at least 10 km according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/War_Mapper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677615626853

430

WolaObiadu

1677530725038

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp66reuo-QfqHBN_vLUh7xTV6HuqVlk-avH2T3Ke=s96-c

21

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…3a0-7a0ec464df0a

20

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "bQWgT1r8tfWMBoicrHP6fPKwTz03", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671571106523}]

["ukraine"]

0.5

1677530723812

0.03

M2gR7QNCdp9yyu53QQAj

which-country-will-produce-the-firs

778.3946523797289

Which country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?

4480694700000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1671571505732

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 9999-12-27 4:25 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2111-12-27 4:25 pm", "type": "text"}]}...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 2.167179327804699, "platformFee": 0.0849557273249142, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

StochasticParrot

1718179323901

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

11

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2c9330eb800d", "prob": 0.4530287940705239, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 103.40663269379918, "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 124.8495709895845, "textFts": "", "contractId": "M2gR7QNCdp9yyu53QQAj", "createdTime": 1671571506708, "probChanges": {"day": 9.992007221626...

1

https://firebasestorage.…107-82682840036c

9

[{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1671571506578}, {"name": "Fusion Energy", "slug": "fusion-energy", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "hxlU6VBs9NexTi7Y7j6L", "createdTime": 1676503606677}, {...

["physics", "fusion-energy", "nuclear-power", "nuclear"]

0.09419519520707284

1718179320708

1672183029941

False

True

0.5037437828440834

0WMtJ9HkWWLb7J39x0Ih

{"NO": 2585.8819734581884, "YES": 41.43636770352077}

1

will-my-69-market-ever-go-below-69

4573.940586195444

Will my 69% market ever go below 69% again?

1671647580863

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.549226543576251

True

play

YES

public

1671573389028

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the below market's probability dips beneath 69% for any length of time after Monday, no matter how briefly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-this-markets-probabi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671647580863

350

IsaacKing

1671647574891

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

18

0

https://firebasestorage.…518-bec743947d1a

17

[{"name": "Isaac's gamble market", "slug": "isaacs-gamble-market", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "wRdfDJV4zA3vCVoklRBX", "createdTime": 1671573389261}]

["isaacs-gamble-market"]

0.5

1671647574687

1671587251282

0.83

0.5

VJ9BiFSvzg0Cbygn4CEi

{"NO": 41.666666666666686, "YES": 60}

0.4098360655737706

will-the-wasm-componentmodel-propos

10

Will the WASM component-model proposal be standardized by the end of 2023?

1672130553932

Rp4QMg0jBubSypd5UQSBZiutbY92

cpmm-1

0

4.409209369267682

True

play

CANCEL

public

1671573537400

TesseractCat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the list of WASM (WebAssembly) proposals here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/WebAssembly/proposals", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/WebAssembly/proposals", "class": null, "tar...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672130553932

50

TesseractCat

1671678203935

0

https://firebasestorage.…205-e8fcbbf07603

1

0

https://firebasestorage.…b8e-d57e2a7b343b

1

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Rp4QMg0jBubSypd5UQSBZiutbY92", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671573538001}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1671678203782

0.41

0.3947897827740972

JoMbKIGIeDXP56VBfu2Q

{"NO": 228.12202647490136, "YES": 179.65290726077586}

1

will-i-have-a-negative-manifold-bal

161.31465591618422

Will I have a negative Manifold balance at any time by the end of January?

1672533103291

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

1.6493335272859002

True

play

YES

public

1671575141454

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a large portfolio, but these days I haven't been leaving much mana reserve (so I'm constantly selling things to make bets). I believe a negative balance is possible with loans? I forget if it arises any other ways. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672533103291

210

Conflux

1672533159598

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

8

0

https://firebasestorage.…95c-b65d549d6c59

7

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671575141952}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672499828327

1672533158312

0.45

0.3359442734128342

IHaWjg3QUBA1s4QmIoWn

{"NO": 212.38582033027265, "YES": 6617.58770247133}

0

will-i-run-at-least-500-hours-in-20-dd4808f6a560

8753.444879882882

Will I run at least 500 hours in 2023?

1704149940000

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

cpmm-1

0

1.1710932152169518

True

play

NO

public

1671575844149

howtodowtle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if I have logged at least 500 hours of running on Strava in 2023. Activities that I will track as running: all kinds of running (road, trail, track, treadmill) including parts that are hiked when the main activity was a run (e.g., s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704226514038

870

howtodowtle

1704228132035

0

https://firebasestorage.…b11-2cb01c3ab380

0

45

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…a71-e74b57294f23

12

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671575870130}, {"name": "Commitment Devices", "slug": "commitment-devices", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "ISVja50LAxuGN0QqycWz", "createdTime": 1671575861216...

["trail-running", "commitment-devices", "sports-default", "running", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704147972360

1704228131541

0.02

sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2

0.22063210176715486

VN3Bnyrum7fkqoqoTvsp

{"NO": 109.24531376380062, "YES": 3600.554037363158}

0

will-5-or-more-world-cup-markets-re

19008.721788485786

Will 5 or more World Cup markets remain closed but unresolved by January 1st, 2023?

1672552740000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

2.980829162870786

True

play

NO

public

1671576801436

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if 5 or more of the current World Cup markets (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/group/2022-fifa-world-cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/2022-fifa-wo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672561548048

290

egroj

1672561544468

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

15

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…370-ea9a4106f3b7

10

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1671576801932}]

["2022-fifa-world-cup"]

0.5

1672552419823

1672561544614

0.01

0.8090990251591215

VOR7QIHvUR8XqwGc6EbI

{"NO": 6545.951310385277, "YES": 1496.8485049887943}

1

50-will-someone-release-dalle-but-f

58646.00670714036

50. Will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos" in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.8950576793007565

0.35750080844839127

True

basic

YES

public

1671576908087

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves positively if some person or group credibly announces the existence of an AI that can generate appropriate videos at least 10 seconds long from arbitrary prompts (similar to the way DALL-E generates images from arbitrary prom...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704356973090

2020

ACXBot

1704356973571

4.7

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

5

202

0

1

132

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576908331}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2962039167660191

0.5

1704014499288

1704356968686

0.95

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.28640469266359

Wjd2M3bFReBU5Lmb3v2r

{"NO": 951.1896543510313, "YES": 12958.107673389133}

0

49-will-ai-win-a-programming-compet

34036.39465080012

49. Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.03060515845439359

0.359804755133748

True

basic

NO

public

1671576908977

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve positively if a major news source reports that an AI entered a programming competition with at least two other good participants, and won the top prize. A good participant will be defined as someone who could be expected to perfor...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704144007034

2030

ACXBot

1704144008448

1.6

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

229

0

1

121

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576909216}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181907201}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17555524540971457

0.5

1704066886921

1704143998486

False

0.03

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.29352322388097063

vXFfGUyACrhyJmT5GKOv

{"NO": 770.1439796902068, "YES": 14262.059060573643}

0

48-will-who-declare-a-new-global-he

20009.669957867533

48. Will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.42580681500975137

True

basic

NO

public

1671576909909

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, the last three were monkeypox, COVID, and Ebola.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #48 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Conte...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142696159

1865

ACXBot

1704142696849

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

100

0

1

64

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576910118}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.12775280620039517

0.5

1704038037470

1676674810725

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.38155196318671253

fvG9R0njfMXWvRPClqzK

{"NO": 5454.895865725984, "YES": 361.94879233890947}

1

47-will-a-successful-deepfake-attem

127867.93860929503

47. Will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

2.847665833651299e-15

0.3936186556731929

True

basic

YES

public

1671576910833

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A deepfake is defined as any sophisticated AI-generated image, video, or audio meant to mislead. For this question to resolve positively, it must actually harm someone, not just exist. Valid forms of harm include but are not limited to costing some...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145572315

2035

ACXBot

1704203863986

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

5

256

0

1

85

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576911049}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1613353534139076

0.5

1704067192501

1704203863346

0.9

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.3825182878274667

iLhOsXM04Ruz1LtGb63I

{"NO": 678.198730156783, "YES": 10857.821574766856}

0

46-will-a-cultured-meat-product-be

46251.59761556855

46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.3688932936959869

0.37441569178847267

True

basic

NO

public

1671576911689

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #46 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145131208

2015

ACXBot

1704145132541

3.7

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

4

174

0

1

98

[{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}, {"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "animal-consumption-trends", "vegan", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2027684763031686

0.5

1704049489801

1704145078835

0.04

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.19838842045178445

p1MUbBE2xAjfbH1Qrk6p

{"NO": 1402.8453800594796, "YES": 9292.770198074193}

0

45-will-an-ordinary-person-be-able

20085.343826340057

45. Will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.08384517569200113

0.36043754848963516

True

basic

NO

public

1671576912535

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scott Alexander will spend some time January 1 checking whether he can get via his house in Oakland to the Presidio in San Francisco via self-driving car at rush hour. He will probably not actually take the trip, but he will resolve this as positiv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145549315

2070

ACXBot

1704145550372

1.5

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

146

0

1

83

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576912722}, {"name": "Nathan's Dashboard", "slug": "nathans-dashboard", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "g4G6yDkp0vg1tQ6CLA...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "nathans-dashboard", "selfdriving-vehicles", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "waymo"]

0.18077881897041362

0.5

1704053445023

1704144195622

0.04

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.7724498905925327

tbPBj3qDZ2RuMezy3VWX

{"NO": 18482.389757025667, "YES": 1026.974987464047}

1

44-will-google-meta-amazon-or-apple

215176.27286273462

44. Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.05579244214592241

0.40714709288689477

True

basic

YES

public

1671576913285

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An AR (Augmented Reality) headset is defined as a wearable where the user can see through it (unlike a VR headset) to the outside world, and it adds new visual information on top of what the viewer sees. It’s not sufficient to have glasses that hav...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142319836

2025

ACXBot

1704142321989

6.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

6

246

0

1

103

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576913478}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.27892888609038763

0.5

1703580249204

1703907948252

0.98

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.5269049803106102

8xK6Mp3MI5Oxf6LZ2jON

{"NO": 438.3308455501041, "YES": 7535.84478175081}

0

43-will-a-new-version-of-covid-be-s

28840.623474277676

43. Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.044149286531633476

0.4178768257673835

True

basic

NO

public

1671576914029

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve positive if in the opinion of the judges the scientific consensus is that getting all currently-recommended vaccines, including the two original vaccines and the Omicron booster, decreases risk of the new variant by less ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704356959824

2010

ACXBot

1704356960223

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

3

128

0

1

76

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576914210}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17374738013023425

0.5

1703952622617

1704356955698

0.06

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.6188451054991886

WpPlUP5ZLyt4voICWmIH

{"NO": 134.91646035893538, "YES": 9603.787191751275}

0

42-will-covid-kill-at-least-50-as-m

50056.074953382704

42. Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.11457059395688093

0.9233209709429238

True

basic

NO

public

1671576914783

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #42 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142363350

2020

ACXBot

1704142364420

2.3

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

4

141

0

1

75

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576914954}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.20405323530322356

0.5

1703327886279

1704142277454

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.6581706998981482

tExWFua6ATe52DbjQnme

{"NO": 1840.619633998006, "YES": 2128.9666194793554}

0

41-will-an-image-model-win-scott-al

59107.77878620759

41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?

1704433998310

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.21466351710931386

True

basic

NO

public

1671576915471

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/dall-e-vs-imagen-and-evaluating-astral-codex-tens-3000-ai-bet . Scott and Edwin will try to get the top image models of late 2023 to try the specific questions in the bet. If we can’t access the models, then Edwin ca...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704803516053

2075

ACXBot

1704824446013

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

7

187

0

1

77

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576915717}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 167295502...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "acx", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.13572044965002436

0.5

1703738258318

1704824445155

0.62

EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1

0.6057325760228603

bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy

{"NO": 60.86352388242589, "YES": 10508.103078827613}

0

40-will-spacexs-starship-reach-orbi

197100.90739399096

40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

1.5645034065445755

True

basic

NO

public

1671576916367

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #40 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": "break-anywh...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704144896179

2260

ACXBot

1704144899876

1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

25

475

0

1

98

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576916552}, {"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 167...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "spacex", "space", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.166428113198266

0.5

1704061075666

1704144536556

False

0.01

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.8875527836550539

WEVTlUCC986nOdOm0owK

{"NO": 18400.172754268046, "YES": 1507.314943010805}

1

39-will-openai-release-gpt4-in-2023

24337.69761925662

39. Will OpenAI release GPT-4 in 2023?

1678816632251

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.5773539644532502

True

basic

YES

public

1671576917167

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves as positive if Open-AI publishes a paper or webpage implicitly declaring GPT-4 “released” or “complete”, showcasing some examples of what it can do, and offering some form of use in some reasonable timescale to some outside parties (r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678816632251

2030

ACXBot

1678816627691

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

122

0

105

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576917341}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181907205}]

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ai"]

0.5

1678816627520

1678815275167

False

0.99

0.4120251682394432

UvlXcPScQ9Ddtr7llnB1

{"NO": 494.10472523486965, "YES": 14875.946628239511}

0

38-will-any-faang-or-musk-company-a

128508.98355054972

38. Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.4064175625912021

0.4587171297058106

True

basic

NO

public

1671576917880

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Qualifying companies are Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Tesla, and Twitter. The company must announce that one of its major services (not an experimental or gimmick service invented for this purpose) will take payment in a crypto token which...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704143102111

2080

ACXBot

1704143105352

4.8

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

11

486

0

1

207

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576918060}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1694...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.28235820531914346

0.5

1704061951353

1694224365920

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.6611101278382396

l3K7632Z273RnWmmIgoY

{"NO": 30.35703003260638, "YES": 14305.73269480151}

0

37-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-no

64183.871466385106

37. Will the US unemployment rate (now 3.7%) be above 4% in November 2023?

1702078367134

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

1.0517927198435418e-15

2.010407948823394

True

basic

NO

public

1671576918642

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #37 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702078367134

2110

ACXBot

1702045140558

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

9

204

0

70

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576918827}]

["acx-2023-prediction-contest"]

0.1464722859586963

0.5

1702045140407

1702042759000

0

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.30422786445152744

TTMWjfmyZImPvLQkxTbe

{"NO": 603.2482134975485, "YES": 31389.05651740969}

0

36-will-tether-depeg-in-2023

1079115.3717189322

36. Will Tether de-peg in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.00497219523640745

0.5087369570452109

True

basic

NO

public

1671576919331

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will count Tether as “de-pegged” if it spends at least one full day below 98 cents at any point during 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #36 in the ", "type": "text"}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125513221

2060

ACXBot

1704125516110

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

8

257

0

1

111

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576919530}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17426751608242658

0.5

1704050427270

1704123340265

0.01

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.39177461094140326

ga5bdA6uhlrA5AYEE9Ej

{"NO": 10289.91027246604, "YES": 123.92921758533812}

1

35-will-bitcoin-end-2023-above-3000

91258.68803367764

35. Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.062152871457577655

0.8259818626500235

True

basic

YES

public

1671576920053

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #35 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125573417

2210

ACXBot

1704125575463

1.5

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

7

246

0

1

81

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576920226}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "cre...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "crypto-prices", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "bitcoin-eoy-2023-binary-options"]

0.17207516940722484

0.5

1704041633014

1699570515820

0.98

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.6174654067875709

Q2fw3pIf2HagYpvEGzqL

{"NO": 20209.090331627664, "YES": 469.9158727256639}

1

34-will-bitcoin-go-up-over-2023

50280.433685331125

34. Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.5123538840431126

True

basic

YES

public

1671576920738

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IE will it end the year higher than it began?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #34 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125592108

2020

ACXBot

1704125593240

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

4

167

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…256-195dda55fc60

124

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576920924}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "cre...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "crypto-prices", "bitcoin-eoy-2023-binary-options", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.14235216310147164

0.5

1704033196971

1695144810231

0.99

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.6134533318379799

858L6WT5Iv3kRltORZpF

{"NO": 115.08697371385975, "YES": 10120.513428358952}

0

33-will-the-shanghai-index-of-chine

32537.2190200275

33. Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.11634159876977318

1.0448365994306243

True

basic

NO

public

1671576921939

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IE will it end the year higher than it began?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #33 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125750024

1945

ACXBot

1704125752401

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

3

104

0

1

53

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576922114}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17006226883000317

0.5

1704063476365

1701994895266

0.02

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.2694505024782538

pDCgifEaspF87XO2xK86

{"NO": 925.9509929682727, "YES": 37873.929837438955}

0

32-will-the-sp-500-index-reach-a-ne

288793.665700244

32. Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2023?

1703884973995

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.05622436033021068

0.38421345780363403

True

basic

NO

public

1671576922641

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #32 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703884973995

2555

ACXBot

1710211784847

2.6

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

7

354

0

102

[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525"}, {"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJ...

["new-years-resolutions-2024", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "acx-2023-prediction-contest"]

0.17488768351637388

0.5

1703884303513

1703883694632

0.01

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.6699511226046508

RKvv5gUsL9IebGF5v67i

{"NO": 31667.849850155035, "YES": 507.3351674965926}

1

31-will-the-sp-500-index-go-up-over

77244.651837919

31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?

1703891658446

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.42498085712806744

0.5498038994138978

True

basic

YES

public

1671576923299

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IE will it end the year higher than it began?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #31 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703891658446

2025

ACXBot

1710211784197

2.9

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

5

231

0

https://firebasestorage.…76a-f39b0aeb22ea

153

[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "S&P 500", "slug": "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "groupId": "14f1d7bf-d7f0-403b-91fa-0fc25f101525"}, {"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJ...

["new-years-resolutions-2024", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "acx-2023-prediction-contest"]

0.267563443388291

0.5

1703890628592

1703891649438

0.99

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.3819897549275757

mAQgw4OFEIJ6xJ4RxZ8A

{"NO": 597.4004992138342, "YES": 13923.57231665053}

0

30-will-us-cpi-inflation-for-2023-a

66669.56643016147

30. Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4% in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.13618013908057125

0.41675319259411436

True

basic

NO

public

1671576923969

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #30 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142965751

2030

ACXBot

1704142967125

5.5

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

5

155

0

1

75

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576924136}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.24665802005515516

0.5

1703526598444

1691182934140

0.03

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.5532685410191877

qqFkvYHzzpTuonxnBWpN

{"NO": 704.8458200148341, "YES": 4734.131576320474}

0

29-will-twitters-average-monetizabl

47628.81775153704

29. Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.28658752912985186

True

basic

NO

public

1671576924639

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve using https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #29 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704356928219

2085

ACXBot

1704356928764

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

148

0

1

70

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576924817}, {"name": "✖️ Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1699151881980}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's ...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.13518376171539015

0.5

1704061608452

1704356923821

0.16

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.4087637738423289

R0BhowgTSahb3E8wEvtZ

{"NO": 961.1949032046081, "YES": 6281.993352890153}

0

28-will-twitters-net-income-be-high

39400.76786686484

28. Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.06364719472388942

0.26884120255454036

True

basic

NO

public

1671576925540

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are availabl...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704356826560

2120

ACXBot

1704356827112

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

375

0

1

131

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576925709}, {"name": "✖️ Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1699151014223}, {"name": " 💼 Business"...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "twitter", "business", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.18528897039257433

0.5

1704064192537

1704356816639

0.1

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.8546874072506617

A3Dl8uiHEzrKbK2CEYly

{"NO": 15941.671516543804, "YES": 1410.5150619101667}

1

27-will-elon-musk-remain-owner-of-t

42986.991298397144

27. Will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.005705688261669648

0.4786848411334832

True

basic

YES

public

1671576926364

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125706689

2045

ACXBot

1704125708129

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

166

0

1

113

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576926540}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181977079}, {"name": "...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1747853295622193

0.5

1703890703785

1676674502691

False

0.99

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.13377428250822854

mmGYG3bMkBXxi3zlAA9u

{"NO": 1013.4030355070515, "YES": 26613.215325859077}

0

26-will-the-uk-hold-a-general-elect

31548.449224181728

26. Will the UK hold a general election in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.06359894222101867

0.7078065621294174

True

basic

NO

public

1671576927032

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #26 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127811364

1605

ACXBot

1704127812091

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

85

0

1

47

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576927245}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "creat...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1481364396075259

0.5

1703353626551

1684361889243

0.01

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.8098120824920212

zOhoQEBRo5d4jTqU0DAb

{"NO": 22707.682161724937, "YES": 1151.8037815952734}

1

25-will-rishi-sunak-be-prime-minist

35708.25663078885

25. Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.08618371142210644

0.44318429051813846

True

basic

YES

public

1671576927875

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #25 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127745695

2055

ACXBot

1704127746517

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

135

0

1

81

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576928034}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.16374060886112163

0.5

1702845405379

1676674488628

0.99

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.20239308327653127

5JnfyAU85tBCgWaNFhoO

{"NO": 1219.2162985066436, "YES": 14709.757816769068}

0

24-will-a-major-us-political-figure

21702.339355404707

24. Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.006571710756899797

0.397981900765096

True

basic

NO

public

1671576928599

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Qualifying political figures are the President, VP, any Cabinet secretary, any member of Congress, any Supreme Court Justice, or any state governor. Any injury, no matter how slight, counts as a “wound” for this question, as long as the assassin wa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142665435

2055

ACXBot

1704142666523

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

136

0

1

80

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576928796}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181861478}, {"name": "🎆 New Ye...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.15178548561935204

0.5

1703303546327

1687354781040

False

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.6601822834298079

fu21p5BIGWCMXwFpk3Rq

{"NO": 30232.07842444021, "YES": 490.27924430848395}

1

23-will-donald-trump-get-indicted-o

444688.92464434257

23. Will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges in 2023?

1680825901888

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.5512378912552265

True

basic

YES

public

1671576929339

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #23 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680825901888

2012

ACXBot

1704321644826

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

5

389

0

188

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576929558}, {"name": "Culture War", "slug": "culture-war", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "DEHK9bp6pMlniVYuHPKI", "created...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "culture-war", "law-order", "donald-trump", "politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1680791764042

1680748128350

False

0.99

0.19042237862502118

Qd8DwR42oOd5kPYYDDUG

{"NO": 1228.294024450621, "YES": 16509.19020267777}

0

22-will-joe-biden-have-a-positive-a

44786.86574994708

22. Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.41848879616671786

True

basic

NO

public

1671576930050

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as \"no\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "p...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142446859

2040

ACXBot

1704142448081

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

6

138

0

1

86

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576930220}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.13276501561921092

0.5

1703646647161

1704141911120

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.48053543918886327

R9ywbZdVqmhJpxpU70xs

{"NO": 47786.275845269505, "YES": 61.8107296367524}

1

21-will-donald-trump-make-at-least

461561.73573570995

21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet in 2023?

1692991075803

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.24336473229162622

0.5733669746071675

True

basic

YES

public

1671576932638

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.", "type": "tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1692991075803

2010

ACXBot

1692991138792

15.9

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

15

869

0

335

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576932815}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181887293}]

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "donald-trump"]

0.5281774368406684

0.5

1692990969669

1692991135606

False

1

0.17899366709472014

UGna3EU4gAKWN8m2lrf8

{"NO": 1088.340803638266, "YES": 12147.396089584887}

0

20-will-there-be-any-change-in-the

18442.509822571003

20. Will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.03739038288750328

0.501085509727234

True

basic

NO

public

1671576933362

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #20 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 P...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127216306

1720

ACXBot

1704127217037

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

92

0

1

51

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576933582}, {"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "userId": "bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "cre...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "supreme-court", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1698851321253229

0.5

1704036665607

1680041131823

0.02

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.8140626266487498

1uBuKrxEyIHXFwvHW2a4

{"NO": 55037.52378917948, "YES": 932.4331098176986}

1

19-will-the-supreme-court-rule-agai

186850.02554196908

19. Will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action in 2023?

1690352635351

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.2866099368169648

True

basic

YES

public

1671576934099

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #19 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1690352635351

2010

ACXBot

1690352627935

3.9

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

10

134

0

67

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576934257}, {"name": "Supreme Court", "slug": "supreme-court", "userId": "bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1", "groupId": "ci33MLyc1P8Fww2e6kxp", "cre...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "supreme-court", "court-cases"]

0.1713367495810191

0.5

1690350549759

1690352624084

1

0.5141395948487388

TpD3R0E9ucPPJRXcOmTf

{"NO": 210.14832680923257, "YES": 15049.39700699809}

0

18-at-the-end-of-2023-will-predicti

75539.67559785614

18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.193032290387104

0.7706960179283526

True

basic

NO

public

1671576934774

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarke...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127103654

2005

ACXBot

1704127105181

2.4

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

7

224

0

1

110

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576934950}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupI...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "2024-us-presidential-election", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.22074110554972398

0.5

1703473647579

1703296175711

0.01

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.5182835657032097

ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT

{"NO": 16107.72031842569, "YES": 144.998692848007}

1

17-at-the-end-of-2023-will-predicti

293787.9041948144

17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.336805168697301

1.1008146291397298

True

basic

YES

public

1671576935771

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarke...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125617158

2180

ACXBot

1704323717319

10

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

15

810

0

1

300

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576935930}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupI...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "2024-us-presidential-election", "2024-gop-primaries", "us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "politics-default"]

0.42670071739265314

0.5

1704033955161

1700062159236

False

0.99

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.08948631783156964

Tfvb8ofxEUc9u43gmNQj

{"NO": 1204.4394188366539, "YES": 11893.258807060436}

0

16-at-the-end-of-2023-will-predicti

14591.940932104088

16. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.9004956903724395

True

basic

NO

public

1671576936431

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarke...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127053594

1510

ACXBot

1704127054269

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

81

0

1

54

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1671583781328}, {"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupI...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704037987105

1678089061407

0.01

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.7607414116468552

p2SCRbOTONfqDpXfQPMu

{"NO": 20819.50170467283, "YES": 967.9347106238607}

1

15-at-the-end-of-2023-will-predicti

44513.06572824432

15. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.006106082908650739

0.4172233456890595

True

basic

YES

public

1671576937109

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarke...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125718076

2035

ACXBot

1704125719207

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

3

180

0

1

96

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576937291}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupI...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "2024-us-presidential-election", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.16384429583716092

0.5

1703959943672

1676674294036

0.99

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.7048196441476099

ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC

{"NO": 330.07497228957345, "YES": 3763.9585991648573}

0

14-will-there-be-more-than-25-milli

273224.50900581526

14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.4643019253009053

True

basic

NO

public

1671576937789

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #14 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "te...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145186067

2010

ACXBot

1705883829609

0.8

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

4

251

0

1

154

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576937962}, {"name": "Less Than Zero Covid", "slug": "less-than-zero-covid", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "BSkJvdFOVQ39j...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "less-than-zero-covid", "asia", "misleading-title", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17636705680995818

0.5

1703801672416

1705883827894

False

0.17

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.22925146486904577

hDlpLoIcY0SNg8YVAxK7

{"NO": 1014.9589314873423, "YES": 22502.356085290317}

0

13-will-any-other-war-have-more-cas

58351.12739067177

13. Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.026976172921376773

0.4156497334653366

True

basic

NO

public

1671576938445

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. See eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Fie...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704130714152

2100

ACXBot

1704130715438

1.6

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

185

0

1

121

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576938625}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.15413841577819892

0.5

1703913365485

1704127104328

False

0.01

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.3340466010414027

wcDggyrq6l2O8pbI4tFB

{"NO": 705.2000482569207, "YES": 15100.400628098718}

0

12-will-ali-khameini-cease-to-be-su

42567.89159499391

12. Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.4068896173497718

True

basic

NO

public

1671576939204

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #12 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "targe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704125690877

2040

ACXBot

1704125691935

0.3

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

4

132

0

1

95

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576939392}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.14566586321888012

0.5

1703284727325

1684183081102

0.02

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.8187610554945437

AQTHVGO9BJUqtGSYINSl

{"NO": 62414.88542732277, "YES": 923.3127645759664}

1

11-will-any-new-country-join-nato-i

146431.0860771063

11. Will any new country join NATO in 2023?

1680825892262

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0

0.13912367186240449

True

basic

YES

public

1671576939924

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sweden and Finland completing the accession process would count as new countries.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #11 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 202...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680825892262

2010

ACXBot

1680822888557

0

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

8

397

0

263

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576940131}]

["acx-2023-prediction-contest"]

0.5

1680822888385

1680744575785

1

0.08030190464300471

alPKlzI3ZFoEb9WMRrdr

{"NO": 1870.9191725581322, "YES": 10223.729588272452}

0

10-will-china-launch-a-fullscale-in

70591.10675491199

10. Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.18120428086256665

0.6590136257091759

True

basic

NO

public

1671576940797

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Very loosely, an invasion of a scale such that China most likely intended for it to establish direct control over at least half of the island of Taiwan, whether or not they actually accomplish this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127458029

2175

ACXBot

1704127460190

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

8

355

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…843-7f5de80f17d1

235

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576940971}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182237360}, {"name": "China Taiwan potentia...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "china", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2651217053117999

0.5

1704025404542

1678088973999

False

0.02

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.05802392075440836

TsIXDQYwigSTivaNLj1B

{"NO": 2257.512319868041, "YES": 13784.537939138036}

0

9-will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-used-in

32996.567568553444

9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.035551832214532

0.7546671730400774

True

basic

NO

public

1671576941514

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #9 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "target...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142608290

2540

ACXBot

1704142609289

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

2

153

0

1

109

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576941695}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1698239386408}, {"name": "🎆 New ...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "nuclear-risk", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.18177877706892964

0.5

1702845398935

1678089171669

0.01

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.440168730044447

JLNUN540nn4lYj6ImKKV

{"NO": 325.30504804044364, "YES": 19666.495709314837}

0

8-will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate

247386.02853160314

8. Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents) in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.02979839790162702

0.6180155479015537

True

basic

NO

public

1671576942281

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon is launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon does not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704127711862

2090

ACXBot

1710747372456

4

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

9

461

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…b9b-85818859ca1b

271

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576942450}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1698239474747}, {"name": "🎆 New ...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "nuclear-risk", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.32035028282472694

0.5

1704053202899

1710747372026

0.01

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.27419638465540697

HRhv92NTikar5GFGckVA

{"NO": 927.4154752276804, "YES": 33830.07723780399}

0

7-will-an-issue-involving-a-nuclear

76368.93593086573

7. Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.5834837725359229

0.37752169050034645

True

basic

NO

public

1671576942914

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We will make this a judgment call but generally resolve positive if at least 25 civilians have to evacuate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #7 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145145438

2525

ACXBot

1704145169369

8.4

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

3

152

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…368-00423a274cba

91

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576943081}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224721}, {"name...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2999065344348231

0.5

1703471045068

1704145167851

False

0.01

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.3703801127020428

7GJmdx2kAsqTiusZWppI

{"NO": 477.6961089730139, "YES": 22131.63464105474}

0

6-will-the-kerch-bridge-be-destroye

130945.5564994498

6. Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.08685623682342808

0.5203443797385354

True

basic

NO

public

1671576943611

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.", "ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704142498608

2035

ACXBot

1704142500630

4.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

11

216

0

1

87

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576943803}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1699252699674...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.23449958453632896

0.5

1704037462282

1691863585040

0.01

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.29723847819601157

5ZwiaRctyYdGPYPftsBA

{"NO": 744.5382500366513, "YES": 21938.638523166224}

0

5-will-there-be-a-lasting-ceasefire

91219.26288408098

5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.14826915938240487

0.4304601938113466

True

basic

NO

public

1671576944328

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704126925812

2110

ACXBot

1704126927821

2.7

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

6

315

0

1

120

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576944504}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224652}, {"name...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.22411924442023434

0.5

1704032238602

1691248027697

False

0.01

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.85352635904348

nTvhFRc9vYyqgNr4yq01

{"NO": 9580.389397275376, "YES": 1220.7785655376397}

1

4-will-ukraine-control-the-city-of

14233.469186377628

4. Will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.011634977051300401

0.5496862093860964

True

basic

YES

public

1671576945008

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704144073071

1690

ACXBot

1704144074085

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

3

89

0

1

54

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576945178}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224716}, {"name...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.15630921449056956

0.5

1704025328393

1704142897013

False

0.98

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.4059712555000598

UsvMATDX96MeE8FmbJ7M

{"NO": 438.2706543767159, "YES": 16711.69388048346}

0

3-will-ukraine-control-the-city-of

28829.373190208895

3. Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.003379436454776382

0.5162979897364726

True

basic

NO

public

1671576945748

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145126122

2020

ACXBot

1704145127375

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

124

0

1

86

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576945910}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224720}, {"name...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.15501501757130673

0.5

1704030658501

1704142794989

False

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.15742045360116433

Gs4djHFPEHhwGbOi48sO

{"NO": 1376.5475097236977, "YES": 13908.684110045711}

0

2-will-ukraine-control-the-city-of

27330.69824718418

2. Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.004579207356681288

0.4539848812430267

True

basic

NO

public

1671576946471

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704144854365

2020

ACXBot

1704144855172

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

1

109

0

1

69

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576946627}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224654}, {"name...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1524534953446077

0.5

1703825147396

1704142809571

False

0.02

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.8402918852287432

LZuynBJB6zTiKm0HZuDK

{"NO": 27058.659809748286, "YES": 1529.6105401353664}

1

1-will-vladimir-putin-be-president

519459.92036552005

1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?

1704067199000

Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2

cpmm-1

0.045097457926861914

0.40091272042618264

True

basic

YES

public

1671576947119

ACX Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is question #1 in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest", "class": null, "target...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704087111295

2505

ACXBot

1704087120558

5.7

https://firebasestorage.…c3b-331db02d845f

24

1460

0

1

543

[{"name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "acx-2023-prediction-contest", "userId": "Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2", "groupId": "9I1OV8xJtT13s6GPQLoH", "createdTime": 1671576947482}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "creat...

["acx-2023-prediction-contest", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "putin-succession", "russia"]

0.4283143752130584

0.5

1704003481481

1701635952873

False

0.99

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

0.5720883638367866

8tZuNKRgS5WFAGSzuf65

{"NO": 194.01169110433, "YES": 122.06129825611664}

0

will-i-average-over-9-minutes-of-me

106.09201993972641

Will I average over 9 minutes of meditation per day over the next 30 days according to Apple Health's Mindful Minutes?

1674571869162

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

2.1251278364785633

True

play

NO

public

1671577235285

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 30-day period will start on December 21st. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have not meditated consistently in about 18 months and struggling to get back into it. My past data below:", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1674571869162

150

DismalScientist

1672162286836

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

6

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…8ff-76960a5710dd

7

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671577236264}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1672162286653

0.68

0.15518619851141452

Hjd9ggXKkgucupZPeCH2

{"NO": 219.75302897541474, "YES": 1204.8190366877636}

0

will-musk-announce-a-new-tesla-giga

1214.4694025354152

Will Musk announce a new Tesla gigafactory in Canada before the end of 2022?

1672531140000

gqnAy5BvU6gB2VI98gIeJLgZlOW2

cpmm-1

0

2.5111210784411124

True

play

NO

public

1671577309083

Bryan Kurt

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved based on Reuters news release.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672549118032

310

BryanKurt

1672526914558

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6bV1lHVvZvzcJ2SZn6Kv4pvFoWPrKhGHCr_lMm=s96-c

1

14

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…31e-e93e11f3257f

14

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "gqnAy5BvU6gB2VI98gIeJLgZlOW2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671577309932}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1672526914368

0.03

0.16038220953917418

a63Q6qZdnfypUXLiSzPl

{"NO": 134.56643505318073, "YES": 616.9110496372933}

0

will-musk-announce-a-new-tesla-giga-bc6714e27699

582.2331256958475

Will Musk announce a new Tesla gigafactory in Mexico before the end of 2022?

1672531140000

gqnAy5BvU6gB2VI98gIeJLgZlOW2

cpmm-1

0

3.261430221768598

True

play

NO

public

1671577360452

Bryan Kurt

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved using Reuters ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672549244969

190

BryanKurt

1672507303841

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6bV1lHVvZvzcJ2SZn6Kv4pvFoWPrKhGHCr_lMm=s96-c

9

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…be1-d6393747a144

7

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "gqnAy5BvU6gB2VI98gIeJLgZlOW2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671577361309}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1672507303668

0.04

0.6000000000000003

gwAa5TQj4hhdwiHW7wN1

{"NO": 409.3266778571218, "YES": 19.858814114200896}

1

will-manifold-fix-the-app-bug-where

351.01269217751053

Will Manifold fix the app bug, where there is no way to get out of a Manalink page you’ve already collected, on or before 2023-01-31?

1671647988290

rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2

cpmm-1

0

4.858459813476329

True

play

YES

public

1671579104890

Matt C. Wilson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My first market! Let's see who supports fixing a bug that's kinda annoying. I'll note that I'm at risk of losing my stake on the market in question, but hey, them's the breaks. (Get it? Breaks?)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671647988290

70

MattCWilson

1671650247227

0

https://firebasestorage.…c23-a3b854776865

2

0

https://firebasestorage.…ba9-eb82dcaf772a

3

[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1671579105185}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1671630794334

1671650245371

0.97

0.7745396532271249

3TusviirHftmQysDBogW

{"NO": 479.49473971673234, "YES": 168.3624113526175}

1

mana-pizza-will-someone-order-me-a

938.5840681427904

Ṁana Pizza: Will someone order me a pizza in exchange for ṀANA dollars?

1671839172874

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

2.312418679520839

True

play

YES

public

1671579109768

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'd like to eat warm pizza before Christmas. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I posted an offer on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Discord", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "htt...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671839172874

230

itsTomekK

1671778259938

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

2

12

0

https://firebasestorage.…ef7-705770c277b3

11

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1671579110606}]

["experimental"]

0.5

1671778259754

1671583926340

0.91

0.18847234030430726

GCGRzL6jy3TPk9xyVZfw

{"NO": 134.85558943098349, "YES": 1101.158637465519}

0

will-ryan-reynolds-and-rob-mcelhenn

2222.234485950628

Will Ryan Reynolds’ and Rob McElhenney’s Wrexham AFC be in first place in the National League at the end of 2022?

1672531140000

gqnAy5BvU6gB2VI98gIeJLgZlOW2

cpmm-1

0

3.0506004708788215

True

play

NO

public

1671579412490

Bryan Kurt

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on result listed at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.thenationalleague.org.uk/match-info/tables", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.thenationalleague.org.uk/match-info/tables", "class": null, "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672549161730

250

BryanKurt

1672383204569

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6bV1lHVvZvzcJ2SZn6Kv4pvFoWPrKhGHCr_lMm=s96-c

12

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…07a-432de04ec532

11

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "gqnAy5BvU6gB2VI98gIeJLgZlOW2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1671579413329}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1672383203312

1671738459816

0.03

0.5935059700714117

FAjW8rElVRCyvkJdUO9B

{"NO": 1530.896790832658, "YES": 132.12279500663337}

1

in-june-of-2023-will-mira-be-more-f

2662.109243354855

In June of 2023, will @Mira be more famous on Manifold than @Spindle?

1688194800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

3.978505234654272e-15

1.4929442426029036

True

play

YES

public

1671580244296

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spindle has long been the most recognizable of Manifolders, having built a considerable cult of personality around themselves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently ", "type": "text"}, {"te...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1694295085917

410

IsaacKing

1694294973000

0.5

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

2

23

0

15

https://firebasestorage.…dab-0543e2edd485

8

[{"name": "Isaac's gamble market", "slug": "isaacs-gamble-market", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "wRdfDJV4zA3vCVoklRBX", "createdTime": 1671580266129}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime":...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "isaacs-gamble-market", "marketz-about-spindle"]

0.11649806386987983

0.5

1688194577480

1694294972430

0.94

0.45230349133631376

G6nVHR4RXlGTAd4UreUW

{"NO": 166.14439151720444, "YES": 2484.34623675786}

0

will-dylan-talk-to-destiny-about-th

2851.245557954464

Will Dylan talk to Destiny about the "black zoomer streamer" drama?

1672559940000

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

cpmm-1

0

1.1137907595399825

True

play

NO

public

1671580585020

johnleoks

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dylan did a research stream on it last week.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_7ZSZcIFpY&t=1331s&ab_chan...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672560218651

610

johnleoks

1710218537611

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

2

31

0

https://firebasestorage.…ebb-572b03eac92c

25

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1672555756389

0.05

0.0821796775846154

jPbolqYS3JDXLC16bEoT

{"NO": 956.9515853588558, "YES": 1190.517459097117}

0.06713943689827716

will-eugen-rochko-creator-of-mastod

419.48254090288367

Will Eugen Rochko (creator of Mastodon) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

1893455940000

YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2

cpmm-1

0

10.364927863133094

False

basic

public

1671581406130

Scrooge McDuck

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Eugen Rochko", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugen_Rochko", "class": null,...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

ScroogeMcDuck

1686048676973

0

https://firebasestorage.…67b-77a20a25abcc

10

0

https://firebasestorage.…7dc-eb591570c38f

9

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671581420235}, {"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1671589954944...

["law-order", "scandal-markets"]

0.5

1686048676814

1671592523033

0.46054222826552726

m4yYfYtkHleSuot66R1G

{"NO": 1024.90683530277, "YES": 964.8146999658429}

0.4755846775278027

will-a-nonhuman-primate-be-the-firs

266.6262632992599

Will a non-human primate be the first species we uplift?

2240639940000

z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2

cpmm-1

0

9.64281729883347

False

basic

public

1671581662058

Nathan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution details will be the same as discussed on this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanHelmBurger/will-koi-be-the-first-species-we-up", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": tr...

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7571732807743421, "platformFee": 0.7571732807743421, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NathanHelmBurger

1715126629346

0

https://firebasestorage.…db4-12b4caf5f952

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-e0ac0ece3477

6

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1671581662425}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673105297788}, {"name": "Uplif...

["science-default", "futurism", "uplifting", "monke"]

0.5

1715126626080

1690755470459

False

0.26470504311982396

rRB4OXWnv0O3oxzgsbt9

{"NO": 177.86962317937008, "YES": 286.7548826911071}

0.18254001936901046

will-tai-lopez-selfhelp-guru-and-vl

219.1201726164264

Will Tai Lopez (self-help guru and vlogger) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

1893455940000

YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1671582090143

Scrooge McDuck

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Tai Lopez (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "self-help", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tailopez.com/", "class": null, "target...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

210

ScroogeMcDuck

1687486516012

0

https://firebasestorage.…67b-77a20a25abcc

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…930-35c26c1de78d

6

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671582102519}, {"name": "Whistleblower Markets", "slug": "scandal-markets", "userId": "YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2", "groupId": "qHo4qLNyY6bkcoS7hZe0", "createdTime": 1671590872163...

["law-order", "scandal-markets"]

0.09519888171204066

0.5

1687294200741

1687486512921

0.8671108415625407

timh3MHtzoyHPjmM6gyc

{"NO": 6653.9529811265875, "YES": 138.53619724428466}

1

will-any-market-have-at-least-1-mil

11542.960595969236

Will any market have at least 1 million volume by the end of June 2023?

1680346950527

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

3.3008746600342853

True

play

YES

public

1671583127073

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ignoring any bets that look like they were made just to inflate the market's volume.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I missed a previous market in my search and this has already happened, i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680346950527

270

IsaacKing

1680348466689

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…9bd-3ac1abc81130

5

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671583127515}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1680283315038

1680348460090

1

0.3867754559806331

XPNA1bixvGQvF8RG9o2c

{"NO": 83.31249733917227, "YES": 159.99999999999994}

0.32

new-major-russian-land-offensive-in

50

New major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May? [Early Resolution via Metaculus]

1671836038148

4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2

cpmm-1

0

2.830622252994479

True

play

MKT

public

1671583563198

Johnny Ten-Numbers

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672321009856

110

1941159478

1671829246353

0

https://firebasestorage.…5d6-609a1a4230e5

3

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…f27-e0ef065b0d29

4

[{"name": "Reciprocal Scoring", "slug": "reciprocal-scoring", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "UMd7vY9c0A6xqcv9dC17", "createdTime": 1671583563420}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime"...

["reciprocal-scoring", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1671829246229

0.32

0.23397308521351992

pXhC70Vn4kt8wnQzmYoS

{"NO": 159.64121816137944, "YES": 6038.0963446596315}

0

new-major-russian-land-offensive-in-24653397e006

14401.80457123775

New major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May?

1682892000000

4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2

cpmm-1

0

2.100194157585539

True

play

NO

public

1671583707789

Johnny Ten-Numbers

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1683736669837

450

1941159478

1683736658850

0

https://firebasestorage.…5d6-609a1a4230e5

23

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…8ef-61ef1e8a6176

16

[{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671583708178}, {"name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "userId": "080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1", "groupId": "5mFuwp5QX0sdZYdNq3Jx", "createdTime": 1677373550414}]

["ukrainerussia-war", "metaculus"]

0.5

1682868843002

1683736655718

0.01

0.3525660029058639

AQMMaQbJZbEHAvHO9hre

{"NO": 54.92688057784347, "YES": 638.2045279402183}

0

will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16830-a-64f9aac823ed

5394.018175880797

Will Bitcoin price be above $16830 at Dec 21 10am ET?

1671638248984

jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2

cpmm-1

0

3.165981858854066

True

play

NO

public

1671583918741

Gene Fama

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671638248984

210

GeneFama

1671637507438

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…8bc-dbfae1368bc0

9

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1671583919527}]

["crypto-speculation"]

0.5

1671637507303

0.04

0.5301260569018753

ZW2clFM7BAg84daUpVs7

{"NO": 4265.320556011883, "YES": 8.92620326111728}

1

will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16830-a-28fc03500040

4648.734113579842

Will Bitcoin price be above $16830 at Dec 21 10pm ET?

1671678240250

jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2

cpmm-1

0

4.327523246508999

True

play

YES

public

1671583927851

Gene Fama

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671678240250

190

GeneFama

1671678292039

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c

10

0

https://firebasestorage.…baf-df71eb8601a8

10

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1671583928643}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146...

["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"]

0.5

1671678224344

1671678289242

0.89