p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5282692800959137 | 7FrJcm3QmqNJjSPYgT1r | {"NO": 765.5827343950582, "YES": 26.515684825158374} | 1 | democrats-vs-republicans | 1491.5688508832136 | Democrats vs republicans | 1681921896773 | WCxGIJmvdsYONlIjaqJswZRZcnw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5449385297247895 | True | play | YES | public | 1671656013503 | Seamus Bronski | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "yes for democrats, no for republicans.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves yes if the value at closing is greater than 50, no if less than 50, and n/a if exactly 50.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681921896773 | 150 | SeamusBronski | 1681921894265 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6RlAJ25n1LzMqUu4cT-a60vTRiFopVHSo-vj1f=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 23 | 6 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "WCxGIJmvdsYONlIjaqJswZRZcnw2", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1671656013807}] | ["selfresolving"] | 0.5 | 1681921894121 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10426900590031239 | O7UkMwKp9Wz2ih8pO8NZ | {"NO": 947.4606678017369, "YES": 1284.7105287756501} | 0.07906135197167181 | will-any-us-county-attempt-to-succe | 717.0899180717802 | Will any US county attempt to secede from the state it belongs to by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.172895011803138 | False | basic | public | 1671656501176 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are numerous counties across the country making noise about this, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "27 counties in Illinois alone", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-politi... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1699345004176 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671656501639}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1699345004040 | 1671664857158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OYxqJrt29yUDhup7dQnw | which-of-the-3-mcgary-brothers-will | 36638.748635070864 | Which of the 3 McGary Brothers will die while trying to kill Scoria? | 1673491792407 | W3nH8d3iBihFXde1P1STboZyRfe2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.619119002309463 | True | basic | 6e56d5040e67 | public | 1671657327848 | NateThe Younger | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 21st: Extending market close due to streamer internet", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Extends across episodes if Scoria has not died by the end of a single episode.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "c... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673491792407 | 2700.0000000000005 | NateTheYounger | 1673492018395 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6aAYDi1uwQ1LbVldvQ7O5kGIgDAmoBmZb581dN=s96-c | 69 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6e56d5040e67", "prob": 0.8553140060157037, "text": "0 brothers", "index": 0, "poolNo": 684.8061160375, "userId": "W3nH8d3iBihFXde1P1STboZyRfe2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 115.84266466880686, "textFts": "'0':1 'brother':2", "contractId": "OYxqJrt29yUDhup7dQnw", "createdTime": 1671657327848, "probChanges": {"... | 69 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "W3nH8d3iBihFXde1P1STboZyRfe2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671657328314}, {"name": "Tombs of Scoria", "slug": "tombs-of-scoria", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "AXY3pkkh8cVqM6lxgmjK", "createdTime": 1672613474600}] | ["destinygg", "tombs-of-scoria"] | 1673491790933 | 1673492108984 | {"6e56d5040e67": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1365465928869257 | hrbNqzlovC1FPOahp1Yc | {"NO": 800.079377808922, "YES": 2125.0972493141517} | 0.056192658489460395 | will-spacex-be-more-valuable-than-t | 3543.6481761568048 | Will SpaceX be more valuable than Tesla by the end of 2025 | 1767225540000 | Y7lFJk4BbeaOdf9QvBzdF1mGfU82 | cpmm-1 | 0.2953272091747612 | 10.130031865650913 | False | basic | public | 1671657880005 | Pranav | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they both are public companies, the market will resolve to YES if SpaceX has a higher market cap and NO if Tesla has a higher market cap. If either is private, it will resolve based on secondary prices. If both are bankrupt, market resolves to n... | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 0.00027160590992500455} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.6063921023721146, "platformFee": 0.8621204968167996, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | pranav | 1718189746646 | 2.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucplROSIu9Lu1Zd5sJrfAE4xLeMeu2Mr-o3B511R6w=s96-c | 20 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Y7lFJk4BbeaOdf9QvBzdF1mGfU82", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671657881098}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.1464363748152929 | 0.5 | 1718189743336 | 1673200146259 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17093998456784387 | LrIGlBpm7HEQHaNRrnSm | {"NO": 1835.1387213810146, "YES": 4461.788485423018} | 0 | will-the-new-nonconstructed-proof-o | 16824.920712378756 | Will the new non-constructed proof of the 4-color theorem prove essentially correct? | 1672605126706 | WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3371303060444655 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671659316226 | Zvi Mowshowitz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The proof is on Arvix here (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.09835", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.09835", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") and dis... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672605126706 | 2210 | ZviMowshowitz | 1674022088787 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c | 8 | 117 | 0 | 105 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1671659316454}] | ["mathematics"] | 0.5 | 1672601877160 | 1674022085968 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7743664547357844 | WYtFk2UNViYT2vX9mrVs | {"NO": 1955.1106503762167, "YES": 563.543588229433} | 1 | will-the-unstable-diffusion-team-be | 4062.5093698607666 | Will the Unstable Diffusion team be able to complete their fundraise through alternate means within a year? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0.07764714203547705 | 0.7883785855802277 | True | play | YES | public | 1671660815552 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unstable Diffusion is that NSFW AI-art derivative of Stable Diffusion that was recently kicked off of Kickstarter:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/21/kickstarter-shut-down-th... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704125398715 | 770 | LarsDoucet | 1704125399178 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Unstable Diffusion", "slug": "unstable-diffusion", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "s0ZTM91YOQOoi80Qp6mA", "createdTime": 1671687096802}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671660... | ["economics-default", "unstable-diffusion", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.14181458820199208 | 0.5 | 1702845803089 | 1683688851526 | 0.92 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3892422642158521 | tYUDTLNc5BlnjCk8TQ4z | {"NO": 36.3107969263173, "YES": 737.8355801808875} | 0 | will-they-kill-scoria-today | 1388.6375080057574 | Will they kill scoria today | 1671667533567 | rsvye6NAMCMbDjX2lRmvN2fbsSq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.606558825306272 | True | play | NO | public | 1671662418507 | Hc Hc | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scoria's death", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671667533567 | 250 | HcHc | 1671667562662 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu20EvwfCFRQQ8E29PM3BTSG4Q_7U0V42YFcF2g2=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Tombs of Scoria", "slug": "tombs-of-scoria", "userId": "rsvye6NAMCMbDjX2lRmvN2fbsSq1", "groupId": "AXY3pkkh8cVqM6lxgmjK", "createdTime": 1671662419509}] | ["tombs-of-scoria"] | 0.5 | 1671667524133 | 1671667560260 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5436297060305579 | MDDXm79o1EM6hSkocNjZ | {"NO": 302.13721188817806, "YES": 10394.322987194822} | 0 | is-at-least-one-of-the-brothers-goi | 59596.62242484054 | Is at least one of the brothers going to perma-die in the fight vs scoria? | 1673491095129 | O5ZcwsbGcIcYTvvertFlpEBwBH72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5469117080245551 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671663589871 | Dxcomx | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this will be for both tonight and tomorrow episode + any more if steven's internet is acting sus. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes only if at least one of the brothers perma-dies. ", "type": "text"}, {"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673491095129 | 2115 | Dxcomx | 1673510096380 | 0 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 151 | [{"name": "Tombs of Scoria", "slug": "tombs-of-scoria", "userId": "O5ZcwsbGcIcYTvvertFlpEBwBH72", "groupId": "AXY3pkkh8cVqM6lxgmjK", "createdTime": 1671663590755}] | ["tombs-of-scoria"] | 0.5 | 1673491093848 | 1673510090354 | 0.39 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8513294569112902 | C64O0BQNUaS1PSRS1StB | {"NO": 1130.7225983053484, "YES": 951.4068772148578} | 0.8718858470211066 | conditinal-on-crimea-being-taken-by | 2913.0044611705152 | Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons? | 1735689540000 | jWOBZDNjuzY5C0GWCykhadfWPa22 | cpmm-1 | 0.313059435710004 | 9.895010296957475 | False | basic | public | 1671664885921 | Mad software developer | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.009477234258697065} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.5920976342806727, "platformFee": 0.029067703122318468, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | theservy | 1719470658216 | 2.4 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ftheservy%2F0qdbvBuhwf.17?alt=media&token=2be32204-b3cc-4f61-9112-7078c1579305 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 6 | 18 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "jWOBZDNjuzY5C0GWCykhadfWPa22", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671664887253}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703122324861}] | ["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13989956943384432 | 0.5 | 1719470655172 | 1719470641204 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4350763012643618 | a7RQEKnCCEFxQUFeT9gU | {"NO": 119.85534571041671, "YES": 4292.617119562925} | 0 | will-acc-be-1-in-2023 | 5604.433702748262 | Will @acc be #1 in 2023? | 1704067140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4351959401129144 | True | play | NO | public | 1671666275546 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if my trading bot ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "BhNkw088bMNwIFF2Aq5Gg9NTPzz1", "label": "acc"}}, {"text": " has the most cumulative profits of any Manifold user for at least one continuous 24 hour period at a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704143075452 | 700 | SG | 1704143075865 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1699151468366}, {"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1699151471899}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", ... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "trading-bots", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703102393974 | 1699189044021 | 0.02 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8297619911596046 | sSoQm50KCSMLHVsAo6th | {"NO": 15.01181680718842, "YES": 174.6692737023589} | 0 | will-this-tweet-get-more-than-5-lik | 10417.522334061561 | Will this tweet get more than 5 likes by Dec 22 at 9 pm EST? | 1671760800000 | lTpavg0WRJeT4kdonyUQ0QuCKKm1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.113015276802103 | True | play | NO | public | 1671666352296 | Timothy Kassis | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/TimothyKassis/status/1605710985225916416?s=20&t=5hyvfU7SrQuLMfR7m0bVYw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/TimothyKassis/status/1605710985225916416?s=20&t=5hyvfU7SrQuLMfR7m0bVYw", ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671761174885 | 170 | TimothyKassis | 1671760942475 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp43MkL4Z5g-R4LhfhMvGhJ7fTbLZKLL7akpAqwF-Q=s96-c | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "lTpavg0WRJeT4kdonyUQ0QuCKKm1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671666352594}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1671760676243 | 1671760939841 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4215487269876598 | 6Aoes6cqPdhyCnEPusp4 | {"NO": 322.291167513876, "YES": 486.7353148365708} | 0 | will-a-mcgary-brother-die-next-epis-bdad38986e9f | 1202.5450323260604 | Will a McGary Brother Die Next Episode of ToS (EP93)? | 1672952700000 | cx0b02DcshfiLo6iAXo2QJCHyS93 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9640873416609852 | True | play | NO | public | 1671666774535 | Zozzy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During Tombs of Scoria EP93 will one or more of the Mcgary brothers (Anton, Tyrael and Imrik) die? Close date will try to be a few minutes after the episode starts and will change to reflect that.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672975213556 | 390 | Zozzy | 1672975164862 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "cx0b02DcshfiLo6iAXo2QJCHyS93", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671666941517}, {"name": "Tombs of Scoria", "slug": "tombs-of-scoria", "userId": "cx0b02DcshfiLo6iAXo2QJCHyS93", "groupId": "AXY3pkkh8cVqM6lxgmjK", "createdTime": 1671666950492}] | ["destinygg", "tombs-of-scoria"] | 0.5 | 1672940600481 | 1672975162408 | 0.33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7892684513160716 | omUNRibUPm5ncvt1FVYz | {"NO": 230.33958207958412, "YES": 335.00000000000006} | 0.7202990739515485 | how-much-usd-will-mriya-raise-in-q1 | 25 | How much USD will Mriya raise in Q1 of 2023 | 1706677140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671667647707 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves to the number shown on Mriya's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "charity page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/charity/mriya", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 310 | Jenny | 1703481636205 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 54 | 4 | [{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1671667647952}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671667638571}] | ["manifold-for-charity", "ukraine"] | 0.7985331572136545 | 1677096640985 | 1703481635529 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5771801924548088 | UABFMHjB3a8a5KSm3jvs | {"NO": 192.54406766541902, "YES": 186.4834523753053} | 1 | did-you-guys-dgg-know-there-was-suc | 51.48106634808332 | Did you guys know there was such a thing as Manalinks on this website?
example in description | 1671753540000 | vqPuXA7lpcTMR8dq2ZSUoY7oG3u1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7401301169162557 | True | play | YES | public | 1671671521444 | Kriggar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/link/whHOMr6A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/link/whHOMr6A", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "YES you knew", "type": "text"}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671816783771 | 190 | Kriggar | 1671719601347 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0qA_TpP9TOcsv7ASsoTvC_oRn-XtN7WVk00ciJ=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "vqPuXA7lpcTMR8dq2ZSUoY7oG3u1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671671870648}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "vqPuXA7lpcTMR8dq2ZSUoY7oG3u1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671718922905}] | ["destinygg", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1671719601196 | 1671700144698 | 0.58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6126651325885342 | rcin0cG2EkjLRMlQMWXa | {"NO": 802.9579204688931, "YES": 1097.0015852707388} | 0.5365584682966438 | will-any-atlas-fellow-have-a-liquid | 6223.556233003861 | Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030? | 1893455940000 | u8lpb9Vp6VeVbYTxjZAGhBtX4v42 | cpmm-1 | 0.0314810623834666 | 9.67375675838267 | False | basic | public | 1671672154177 | Ulisse Mini | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"liquid\" I mean \"can reasonably direct 100M of their own capital to whatever they want.\" / \"not fake VC valuations.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: This includes donations/mone... | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -0.0024985900085199297} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.137665007209182, "platformFee": 1.752177866897866, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | uli | 1718174044802 | 1.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu02s1z2lNdto0obcgu11ybiPCBk38ibHjz0g0nYwNU=s96-c | 2 | 41 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "u8lpb9Vp6VeVbYTxjZAGhBtX4v42", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671672155152}, {"name": "Atlas Fellowship", "slug": "atlas-fellowship", "userId": "EKnSYyz71XadjA1gChNwxubpp6J3", "groupId": "sDo7qznieDNNrAaaPvV1", "createdTime": 16745443163... | ["economics-default", "atlas-fellowship"] | 0.13797801430953488 | 0.5 | 1718174040185 | 1679525184735 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
klzKZR45ol3hwqYY4ZTo | when-will-ai-generated-art-first-be | 0 | When will AI generated art first be exhibited in one of the 20 most prestigious modern art museums? | 1671675141902 | ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.018925873531059 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671672272661 | Reality Quotient | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note the word exhbited, it's not required that the art be part of the permenent collection. The list of valid art museums is listed below, and was chosen (non-ironically) by asking ChatGPT: \"List the top 20 most prestigious modern art museums in t... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671675141902 | 300 | RealityQuotient | 1671674670122 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRealityQuotient%2F1ibfR9B3aE.52?alt=media&token=d93aaf2f-c14b-456b-bfb8-027eb4381783 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "95842a16556f", "prob": 0.19999999999999998, "text": "2023", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.999999999999998, "userId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48, "textFts": "'2023':1", "contractId": "klzKZR45ol3hwqYY4ZTo", "createdTime": 1671672272661, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month... | 1 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671672302602}, {"name": "Arts", "slug": "arts", "userId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "groupId": "rvlLWOxULpzwHIaMDePa", "createdTime": 1671672293858}, {"name": "AI Impa... | ["ai-impacts", "arts", "technology-default", "ai"] | 1671672272661 | 1671674663957 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13536989911288233 | hHIFQ9So1abFAeDnPwVE | {"NO": 175.55146750499176, "YES": 405.6861561880142} | 0 | will-xqc-beat-forsens-personal-best-47b896a5c00d | 820.9189968171329 | Will xQc beat forsen's Personal Best in minecraft during this speedrunning session? (21Dec2022) | 1671682516295 | 3AEy292BXnVzv0qNRCrd1GJ5jQZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.585279303980153 | True | play | NO | public | 1671672908192 | Pherret | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.twitch.tv/xqc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.twitch.tv/xqc", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " - market is valid only for this streaming session on 21Dec2022", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671682516295 | 270 | Pherret | 1671682512913 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "xQc", "slug": "xqc", "userId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "groupId": "YMfPf8QA71hjsIQYoTvV", "createdTime": 1674852694383}, {"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "3AEy292BXnVzv0qNRCrd1GJ5jQZ2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671672908713}, {"name": "Forsen", "slug": "... | ["destinygg", "xqc", "forsen"] | 0.5 | 1671681409102 | 1671682509849 | 0.07 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17646223648363737 | wfULAHTPxM5MsbLybnEy | {"NO": 393.0040721644547, "YES": 4770.669193427847} | 0 | will-m-be-declared-by-a-regulator-t | 6499.631072894316 | will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024? | 1704056340000 | 9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3098695422547357 | True | play | NO | public | 1671673333933 | L | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any regulatory agency asserts that manifold's currency is \"real\" in a way that would require making the significant changes that are implied by it being in an existing category of regulated service or asset. The significant change... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704065893801 | 650 | L | 1704065894126 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671673335222}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671673381360}, {"... | ["us-politics", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704055387155 | 1672578871156 | 0.02 | 9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5057368605790274 | C8DKb94Kh7dGRm2IRWN1 | {"NO": 235.2691974382892, "YES": 14122.368427800691} | 0 | will-apple-release-an-ar-headset-in | 223829.8784450864 | Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023 | 1704067140000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 8.641577005331916e-16 | 0.7146467697671923 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671673501297 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2023 be the year it finally comes out? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704147302074 | 2030 | VivaLaPanda | 1704147302777 | 0.6 | 9 | 275 | 0 | 1 | 177 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671673502150}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "cr... | ["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.17379369562557717 | 0.5 | 1704065336188 | 1704147297733 | 0.02 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7164362378861652 | Lk2SEM1zvphDTA2Z2jnu | {"NO": 1057.8671346441363, "YES": 967.6951722305561} | 0.7341820085147192 | will-100000-people-regularly-use-vi | 640.4245910679607 | Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030 | 1925020740000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.580139507383656 | False | basic | public | 1671674436262 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As new AR devices come on the market, will people make them part of their everyday life? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 100,000 number should be considered approximate, it's basically me... | BINARY | {"day": -9.992007221626409e-16, "week": -9.992007221626409e-16, "month": -9.992007221626409e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5294046082759684, "platformFee": 0.5294046082759684, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | VivaLaPanda | 1718598424364 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671674436598}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1715904303104 | 1718598422738 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8002730427986372 | yxr3CeEVSVCYHLRuJBx5 | {"NO": 1927.362977499959, "YES": 750.2587011744168} | 0.9114518007720415 | will-earbud-transparent-mode-be-abl | 4158.631580545282 | Will earbud "transparent mode" be able to selectively mute/passthru certain sounds by 2025 | 1767254340000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.900414815454738 | False | basic | public | 1671674778342 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Airpods and many other wireless earbuds have an option to allow audio through or cancel noise: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT210643", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://support.ap... | BINARY | {"day": -7.771561172376096e-16, "week": -7.771561172376096e-16, "month": -7.771561172376096e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.30084506356417207, "platformFee": 0.30084506356417207, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | VivaLaPanda | 1716181732019 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671674778943}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1716181728538 | 1700584829794 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7725879659356849 | m2nRgIjToKPifPBOJ2u7 | {"NO": 5244.468131942822, "YES": 132.29689905822124} | 1 | will-apple-release-an-ar-headset-in-3e6edc3adf0c | 9489.05783872746 | Will Apple release an AR headset in 2024 | 1706921320838 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4999882764937063 | True | play | YES | public | 1671675247266 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2024 be the year it finally comes out?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1706921320838 | 370 | VivaLaPanda | 1706909500301 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671675247595}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.11933539148130116 | 0.5 | 1706909464246 | 1706909497357 | 0.99 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8003391468292387 | bGE8VNM4Nbwkqxrx4TeS | {"NO": 99.16287624187473, "YES": 548.9198748629742} | 1 | will-this-markets-probability-be-at-bae92feca8be | 4966.223745346761 | Will this market's probability be at least 42.0% for at least 42.0% of the time it remains open? | 1677736879895 | kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1 | cpmm-1 | 1.6186699391811135 | True | play | YES | public | 1671675786448 | Alex Rockwell | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I mean, this market needed to happen, right??", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677736906663 | 410 | AlexRockwell | 1677737179691 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1671675857473}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671675786760}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved",... | ["fun", "gambling", "improperly-resolved"] | 0.5 | False | 1672590164944 | 1677737176446 | 0.42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2768886982153095 | HveMwyao2A3YRS9ImkJA | {"NO": 56.24682531657474, "YES": 1874.7330074948482} | 0 | will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16820-a | 2584.358931219777 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16820 at Dec 22 10am ET? | 1671723703298 | jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7617504641027666 | True | play | NO | public | 1671675850742 | Gene Fama | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671723703298 | 250 | GeneFama | 1671722281797 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1671675851531}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1671722281669 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5017425470027128 | s9Vnibuwx13dAB8e6htL | {"NO": 1614.3874165741772, "YES": 56.756618538556644} | 1 | will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16820-a-8aac720206ed | 1968.284135802144 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16820 at Dec 22 10pm ET? | 1671767940000 | jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1587332290510783 | True | play | YES | public | 1671675857487 | Gene Fama | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671803645537 | 330 | GeneFama | 1671767915294 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1671675858540}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146... | ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1671767915156 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07155102786394725 | ZkMByssdn2AqYgWBr4KR | {"NO": 746.70885271386, "YES": 6843.969847890288} | 0 | will-scott-alexander-go-on-a-livest | 36891.96696176938 | Will Scott Alexander go on a livestream with Destiny by the end of 2023? | 1704096000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7721537824821674 | True | play | NO | public | 1671677141020 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704144224911 | 910 | IsaacKing | 1704144225364 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671677141575}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1671679188748}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Reso... | ["destinygg", "acx", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.14085679004313384 | 0.5 | 1703112281587 | 1686697077169 | 0.01 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5400017773133817 | lLkvJAHXuHZnaLB0Axro | {"NO": 34.33883679307607, "YES": 340.9609992744076} | 0.10572789681513814 | will-i-be-able-to-access-manifold-a | 1280.581799159938 | Will I be able to access Manifold API from Haskell by end of 2023? | 1704085140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0851882924317096 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671678678871 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has to support at least 75% of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "API endpoints", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.manifold.markets/api#endpoints", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705071656971 | 170 | Jenny | 1705071657240 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 5 | [{"name": "Haskell", "slug": "haskell", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VKibgo46kqn1AqeR0h4A", "createdTime": 1671678679050}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511358085}, {"name": ... | ["haskell", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"] | 0.5 | 1703745209092 | 1704979308176 | 0.11 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10879785403655551 | QAicm2MKFrm74pRiVl0e | {"NO": 165.97632162259106, "YES": 23617.28654306818} | 0 | will-steven-destiny-bonnell-write-a | 70907.24454395697 | Will Steven "Destiny" Bonnell write a guest post for ACX by the end of 2023? | 1703985651587 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.566632527863147 | True | play | NO | public | 1671678763539 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Includes any full-length post published on ACX, even ones which are not formally a \"guest post\", such as a Book Review Contest finalist.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "see also: ", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703985651587 | 310 | MichaelWheatley | 1703985653445 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671678764304}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1671679173860}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Reso... | ["destinygg", "acx", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703985626194 | 1703985637048 | 0 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1905694728222224 | 33mEGSMsdHpDikeKTyEn | {"NO": 294.0392524297223, "YES": 1878.5004970023574} | 0 | will-gpt4-score-a-1600-on-the-sat | 3863.427208546405 | Will GPT4 score a 1600 on the SAT? | 1704067140000 | Cc0aoacvTbY8BzI9Dk99TnSMfjj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.600194712065376 | True | play | NO | public | 1671680094416 | Samuel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 3:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704067682750 | 450 | Samuel | 1704067683137 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkZ3o79XK1vb4Je1WM5oi7JWrQm6wy358hpG1oe=s96-c | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703128682525}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1689085020164 | 1672642882282 | 0.04 | Cc0aoacvTbY8BzI9Dk99TnSMfjj1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.763116938755812 | uW93adqz9Fdk9eKRYrx3 | {"NO": 326.5150574801655, "YES": 191.7385502646363} | 1 | is-ai-art-an-overall-positive | 323.4553723943783 | Is AI art an overall positive? | 1672509540000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.121972803181083 | True | play | YES | public | 1671680256891 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to which ever option I agree with. I won't bet on this, so feel free to bring up any arguements you think will persuade me. Currently I'm kinda in the middle, so I'm not sure which I would choose right now.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672514997496 | 230 | Wobbles | 1672292446009 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671680257222}, {"name": "Change My Mind", "slug": "change-my-mind", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "kzzraVgQ4jzw7XmLUZDv", "createdTime": 1672177689758}] | ["ai", "change-my-mind"] | 0.5 | 1672292445846 | 1672178806375 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37166852134649986 | pKkeIyyOniG4gY4h48ej | {"NO": 799.8068035544951, "YES": 1288.0065068746137} | 0.26863752279225794 | will-a-useful-contact-lens-display | 1149.998772192525 | Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030 | 1925020740000 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.744069182156096 | False | basic | public | 1671686008770 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A bunch of companies, most notably Mojo, are trying to build and sell AR contact lenses. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will these devices succeed? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4791191985368521, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | VivaLaPanda | 1717191763672 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671686009339}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16835113618... | ["technology-default", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1717191760546 | 1678711597113 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PVwJde5AphEu0hSTfKcd | where-will-we-go-for-spring-break | 1298 | Where will we go for Spring Break? | 1679288340000 | 5CHs0RB6Y7PHei0OQGlhFOG6eKl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.650248821408651 | True | play | 37ce25d7dc4f | public | 1671686850704 | Aidan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Group of 6 college students", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Living in Houston, TX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have cars but open to flying", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683213720255 | 540.0000000000001 | taz | 1674502647401 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu17WFs599mOW90w_gwmRCNfbl2euySseghxKHVx=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5f393f89329f", "prob": 0.005116649372391788, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.026908768993441124, "userId": "5CHs0RB6Y7PHei0OQGlhFOG6eKl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.23215180659229, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PVwJde5AphEu0hSTfKcd", "createdTime": 1671686851882, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ... | 10 | 2 | [{"name": "College life", "slug": "college-life", "userId": "5CHs0RB6Y7PHei0OQGlhFOG6eKl2", "groupId": "7HnUpB5kK1Af8zsiFCjz", "createdTime": 1671687850481}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "5CHs0RB6Y7PHei0OQGlhFOG6eKl2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1671686851671}, {"name"... | ["culture-default", "college-life", "travel"] | 1674502647250 | {"37ce25d7dc4f": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6280693833654933 | rhUZ0TcYWyXjqA7JvXfA | {"NO": 1057.3158890437692, "YES": 36.43798660144983} | 1 | will-patreon-interfere-with-or-canc | 7668.511687279436 | Will Patreon interfere with or cancel Unstable Diffusion? | 1671738703392 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1884076851068004 | True | play | YES | public | 1671686864420 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See related markets here:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-unstable-diffusion-team-be", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDouce... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671738703392 | 150 | LarsDoucet | 1671738810640 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671686864741}, {"name": "Unstable Diffusion", "slug": "unstable-diffusion", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "s0ZTM91YOQOoi80Qp6mA", "createdTime": 1671687107807}] | ["ai", "unstable-diffusion"] | 0.5 | 1671738666343 | 1671738807466 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3862275147890323 | rKeIhAHlJSZBwbnS5q87 | {"NO": 321.8191350871521, "YES": 1311.20803001768} | 0 | how-many-of-the-following-cities-cu | 1422.584516433993 | How many of the following cities, currently under Russian control, will be under Ukrainian control on June 22nd, 2023? | 1684744440000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8203361786208909 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671686921560 | DAL59 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hola Prystan (just south of Dniper near Kherson)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oleshky (just south of Dniper near Kherson)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Armyansk (Northern tip of... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1690403118637 | 570 | DAL59 | 1710208058088 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 18 | 0 | 14 | 12 | [{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr"}, {"name": "⚔️ Wars", "slug": "wars", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz"}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "groupId": "0A... | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "ukraine", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "2023"] | 0.45454545454545453 | 1684739749542 | 1690018246353 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4885323478308915 | Z1h4IziddxgEbAW1ArUl | {"NO": 339.5286569665365, "YES": 762.9531003801919} | 0.29827685155190903 | will-the-unstable-diffusion-team-ac | 1256.0768778827342 | Will the Unstable Diffusion team actually deliver their product as described before the end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671687048146 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the Unstable Diffusion team, whether or not they ever receive fundraising, does everything they said they were going to do if they raised the minimum $25K according to their original Kickstarter, and delivers it before 2023 is over, this market ... | BINARY | {"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 530 | LarsDoucet | 1703948232970 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 0 | 30 | 0 | 33 | 6 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671687048523}, {"name": "Unstable Diffusion", "slug": "unstable-diffusion", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "s0ZTM91YOQOoi80Qp6mA", "createdTime": 1671687115788}, {"name": "🎆 ... | ["ai", "unstable-diffusion", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703948232850 | 1703705802682 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.151330158992839 | i7gU7isFbBB5wXYny2bk | {"NO": 545.8959984734839, "YES": 2664.317305811196} | 0.03524736516211591 | will-manifold-add-a-let-the-ai-reso | 3010.7476592104726 | Will Manifold add a "let the AI resolve it" market resolution option by the end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.438738720689077 | False | play | public | 1671687459865 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assuming an API that has sufficient capabilities is available, it's plausible that you could have a chatbot/LLM scan your market's headline and resolution criteria, and then give you its opinion about whether your market was resolved correctly. You... | BINARY | {"day": 3.469446951953614e-17, "week": 3.469446951953614e-17, "month": 3.469446951953614e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 730 | LarsDoucet | 1704085326461 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 38 | 0 | 33 | 26 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671687460312}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1671687468118}, {"... | ["ai", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704085326348 | 1672178179925 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4533293580051598 | YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI | {"NO": 277.61641428280797, "YES": 23491.885401187585} | 0 | will-sbf-plead-guilty | 332602.44498512987 | Will SBF plead guilty? | 1698971585780 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0.14317490909904246 | 0.6863906194413194 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671688928530 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1698971585780 | 2375 | Gigacasting | 1698972988180 | 2 | 25 | 735 | 0 | 381 | [{"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1672779715452}, {"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671688928814... | ["ftx", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "austin-less-wrong-2023-predictions", "sbf-trial"] | 0.3063503867776268 | 0.5 | 1698971417849 | 1698972986423 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.24527681767781445 | kfFs1rhcxqGzy5chsvsE | {"NO": 236.1463342057985, "YES": 560.1292465445719} | 0 | will-destiny-get-a-900m-on-first-tr | 2689.7321604808 | Will Destiny get 900 or more on first try the next time he streams ? | 1671753685998 | 7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6572306144241025 | True | play | NO | public | 1671689511692 | Sai Vázquez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 21, 11:12pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Destiny get a 900m on first try the next time he streams ?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Destiny get a 900 on first try the next time he streams ?", "type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671753685998 | 350 | SaiVazquez | 1671752264312 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671689512675}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1671752264140 | 1671744377260 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8516224651604558 | PfT0siZQRF4uPA9tGQjT | {"NO": 7380.912112555783, "YES": 1479.4007738064515} | 1 | will-destiny-get-fiber-internet-ins | 37297.76290752227 | Will Destiny get fiber internet installed in his unit by the end of January? | 1672869698812 | 1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4566263018450325 | True | basic | YES | public | 1671689531274 | Zion | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is able to get a fiber connection installed succesfully.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if destiny moves appartments or the market closes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672869895601 | 2010 | Zion | 1710218557399 | 0 | 3 | 106 | 0 | 90 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672869697841 | 1672870712078 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7988930861607915 | Kdeu9WvBOcTnFabjxINJ | {"NO": 2974.2264210234484, "YES": 127.90647120821428} | 1 | will-the-average-usdrub-exchange-ra-24e2dff322c8 | 3002.341143252888 | Will the average USD/RUB exchange rate be higher than 80 between September 23 and September 29, 2023? | 1696021140000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0.6403510955906225 | 2.7063810509441844 | True | play | YES | public | 1671690930083 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Main source for market resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Google Finance: USD/RUB", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696022526440 | 290 | AVS | 1696017043918 | 2.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671690938009}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671690930445}, {"name": "Curre... | ["russia", "economics-default", "currency"] | 0.1377100251451695 | 0.5 | 1696017043547 | 1692609957890 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7832925297748947 | 0J7EQ2Qawbf5fBVvVNpT | {"NO": 5100.341652082508, "YES": 141.9580962908063} | 1 | will-the-average-usdrub-exchange-ra-511db2870583 | 6543.6771612953635 | Will the average USD/RUB exchange rate be higher than 80 between December 15 and December 21, 2023? | 1703195940000 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | cpmm-1 | 0.9221548123056469 | 2.485399013313471 | True | play | YES | public | 1671691526260 | AVS | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Main source for market resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Google Finance: USD/RUB", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703237748210 | 370 | AVS | 1703189195146 | 2.5 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671691535867}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1671691526552}, {"name": "Curre... | ["russia", "economics-default", "currency"] | 0.1422211702244013 | 0.5 | 1703189194993 | 1692609928801 | 0.99 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5537510347094939 | Esitk9x3mys9kjo6aOv4 | {"NO": 11317.681512278683, "YES": 11366.136725792527} | 1 | will-i-think-mixing-adderall-and-xa | 782.587315513069 | Will I think mixing adderall and xanax is fine as a regular activity on Jan 31? | 1675238400000 | duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.03551543708227503 | True | plus | YES | public | 1671693612783 | Katja Grace | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria is whether I intend to keep doing it regularly (e.g. once per week or two) if I want to. (So if I'm unsure whether it is fine, but concerned enough to stop doing it, then it will resolve 'no'. If I think it's not riskless, but w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675288995363 | 11350 | KatjaGrace | 1675289102697 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKatjaGrace%2FRm2q0pf_ZB.45?alt=media&token=f63a7162-3765-4734-9383-6cf95bc290e8 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Change My Mind", "slug": "change-my-mind", "userId": "duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1", "groupId": "kzzraVgQ4jzw7XmLUZDv", "createdTime": 1671693613066}] | ["change-my-mind"] | 0.5 | 1675116131006 | 1675289099570 | 0.55 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16780555692030988 | AtNsS91jFsVzYdJeeHJK | {"NO": 197.7311632417749, "YES": 1898.0967832208082} | 0 | will-the-manifold-mobile-homepage-s | 1990.5025240078116 | Will the Manifold mobile homepage still be Maniswipe in a month? | 1671771875427 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.500725290191463 | True | play | NO | public | 1671696734629 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I understand the appeal but I hate it", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671771875427 | 330 | ahalekelly | 1671767327623 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 2 | 16 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671696735447}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1671767327463 | 1671733071923 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3917691454297778 | nE8HMjmx5E4iK4oTktI7 | {"NO": 189.8366275069505, "YES": 175.95837667835556} | 1 | will-any-part-of-my-flight-be-resch | 110.53909390589769 | Will any part of my flight be rescheduled today due to weather? | 1671736248387 | htaannXozhTxknzqFlBIgSlZNm63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8199643630740767 | True | play | YES | public | 1671699148828 | Kognise | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm flying BTV 6:00 -> ORD 8:45 and ORD 10:15 -> SAT 13:00. Times are all UTC-5:00.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Severe weather disruptions have been screwing with east coast flights. This ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671736248387 | 190 | kognise | 1671727971916 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "htaannXozhTxknzqFlBIgSlZNm63", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671699149410}] | ["world-default"] | 0.5 | 1671727971743 | 0.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BlyRVywaUVeO7ZHmLej2 | what-will-be-metacritic-user-score | 537 | What will be Metacritic user score of Diablo IV (PC) one month after the release? | 1685912400000 | jm2439iMEFV3ik6qRuxqmVBb5333 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.695485026609286 | True | basic | 0f1dbc6e084b | public | 1671702381541 | NikitaGL | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Diablo IV is scheduled for release on June 6, 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On July 6, I will open ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/diablo-iv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"ty... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688616747824 | 1180 | NikitaGL | 1685903451561 | 0 | 13 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6fd0142b0d29", "prob": 0.019154959611008698, "text": "0", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.5353670721855186, "userId": "jm2439iMEFV3ik6qRuxqmVBb5333", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 27.413899491542114, "textFts": "'0':1", "contractId": "BlyRVywaUVeO7ZHmLej2", "createdTime": 1671702381541, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"... | 7 | 6 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "jm2439iMEFV3ik6qRuxqmVBb5333", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1671702381833}] | ["gaming"] | 1685903451272 | {"0f1dbc6e084b": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4736599061781632 | GMke6GkQPtGjZV32GkPS | {"NO": 3738.3495073319073, "YES": 44.518256842751356} | 1 | will-a-universitylevel-student-be-p-f8266e1944a4 | 4614.922320528789 | Will a university-level student be punished for using ChatGPT or another LLM I to write a school paper by Jan 15th 2023? | 1672235885252 | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.292891495159941 | True | play | YES | public | 1671703385755 | Marcus Abramovitch | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With the publishing of ChatGPT and it's ability to write essays, answer questions, etc. at the very least at the graduate level, it seems likely that people will begin to use it for school work. Will a student be accused and subsequently punished f... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672235885252 | 530 | MarcusAbramovitch | 1672236640086 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 26 | [{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1671703386812}] | ["law-order"] | 0.5 | 1672235875403 | 1672236632119 | 0.88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10993956661244991 | TBGm4xg45LauXwqaB5i3 | {"NO": 915.6919978741167, "YES": 1390.8102332906285} | 0.07520737401476162 | will-i-experience-financial-loss-du | 700.5530618248415 | Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027? | 1830319140000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.163879867610454 | False | basic | public | 1671704495483 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does not include if someone steals a physical credit card. Resolves Yes if someone steals my password information (potentially via a security leak) and spends my money / otherwise disadvantages me financially be impersonating me.", "type": "text"}]... | BINARY | {"day": 4.163336342344337e-17, "week": 4.163336342344337e-17, "month": 4.163336342344337e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1712181792021 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1671704495678}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "createdTime": 16735849... | ["crime", "carsons-important-markets", "markets-about-carson"] | 0.5 | 1712181788491 | 1672176585201 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2962229176949251 | 6zr56YMxYf6NoxHIGovl | {"NO": 971.9625845222693, "YES": 1047.5287114182638} | 0.280855675333861 | will-reading-in-the-schools-be-opti-7eb8dbcf7643 | 555.5721678142883 | Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060? | 2871763140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.575663350500985 | False | basic | public | 1671712628602 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We all carry small computers with us everywhere; they can currently handle text-to-speech and speech-to-text; reading is currently one of the biggest time-eaters in elementary schools; and there is very little that one might reasonabally need readi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7863857080130032, "platformFee": 0.10025847590183418, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Duncn | 1717475172742 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1671764014371}] | ["futurism"] | 0.5 | 1717475169624 | 1699246231179 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27289772094203246 | GvtEfGa00A7vHjAbgbGg | {"NO": 960.4247442866778, "YES": 1067.399009994243} | 0.2524525284370862 | will-humans-uplift-another-species | 347.9287608714467 | Will humans uplift another species by 2050? | 2556143940000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590829174991617 | False | basic | public | 1671716132745 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a non-homo spaiens species be legally recognized as a person by the USA or EU based on an increase in cognitive ability from it's natural baseline before the end of 2050?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 22... | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Duncn | 1690912386714 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671716133736}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1671762989598}, {"name": ... | ["technology-default", "futurism", "uplifting"] | 0.5 | 1690912386604 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38949671922745616 | 3hnINl46t77RAVDeTDUJ | {"NO": 980.2364773399256, "YES": 1023.4756276071538} | 0.3792826849795792 | will-we-uplift-another-species-by-2 | 792.3590802787164 | Will we uplift another species by 2075? | 3345062340000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 1.0977341922139267e-15 | 9.671716806147739 | False | basic | public | 1671716168677 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a non-homo spaiens species be legally recognized as a person by the USA or EU based on an increase in cognitive ability from it's natural baseline before the end of 2075?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.14138037414783225, "platformFee": 0.14138037414783225, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Duncn | 1716087135558 | 0.2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671716169561}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1671762861533}, {"name": ... | ["technology-default", "futurism", "uplifting"] | 0.10258535287774859 | 0.5 | 1716087132156 | 1687835686416 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8181316017508105 | xRsWvJOs6C71T0F9wfV8 | {"NO": 4510.050810663499, "YES": 313.8868416043126} | 1 | will-eurusd-close-2023-above-1 | 5283.172874100073 | Will EUR/USD close 2023 above 1? | 1704035237684 | gvJX7DcyYZOIXEyEuVgs4JAkkUw2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5474658950072393 | True | play | YES | public | 1671716857237 | MAcs 19R1 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exchange rate between Euro and US Dollar", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704035237684 | 530 | MAcs19R1 | 1704035239822 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6z8rPbPzyOtlCWY9DOk-2TOiR3RVTJJebuofsK=s96-c | 0 | 28 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "gvJX7DcyYZOIXEyEuVgs4JAkkUw2", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1671717559870}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "userId": "gvJX7DcyYZOIXEyEuVgs4JAkkUw2", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1671717552482}, {"name": "Eco... | ["economics-default", "europe", "european-union", "wall-street-bets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.10902173245367026 | 0.5 | 1703951810044 | 1703951914797 | 0.98 | gvJX7DcyYZOIXEyEuVgs4JAkkUw2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7478176370370406 | ZMoWm995RCmRYytYPWPr | {"NO": 1006.8945310423785, "YES": 981.0339472880495} | 0.7526927737425468 | will-20-or-more-of-japans-energy-be | 1495.5048492132078 | Will 20% or more of Japan's energy be from nuclear sources before 2030? | 1893456000000 | nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.600121288074835 | False | basic | public | 1671717747108 | Joe Reeve | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/12/japan-to-invest-on-nuclear-energy-in-major-policy-shift/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://eandt.theiet.org/content/artic... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.007471257415030186} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.5180357627603268, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoeReeve | 1718360017200 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeRbtYmsn4hySTJgL7GdsHmuUlmnJciT5Zf9enIg=s96-c | 1 | 22 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671722830415}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1671722822603}, {"name": "E... | ["energy", "energy-crisis", "nuclear-risk", "world-default", "economics-default", "nuclear"] | 0.5 | 1718360014147 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
vKtAPaOHScacVcPvhEUn | to-which-charity-will-i-donate-my-1 | 199.78434777304625 | To which charity will I donate my 1MM mana? | 1674363540000 | AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7881338172186725 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671718798450 | Ian Philips | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As a perk of working at Manifold I get to donate $10K USD of mana to a charity, which one will get my dough? It's best if the charity is at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/charity", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675070356105 | 660.0000000000002 | ian | 1674287047534 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "20ed0ab6e5bb", "prob": 0.1432461361674552, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.47283563890044, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.751990095119222, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vKtAPaOHScacVcPvhEUn", "createdTime": 1671718799092, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 2 | 10 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671718798952}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1674287047301 | 1674189600215 | {"467879b6bd73": 33.333333333333336, "ea65ea72cf9e": 33.333333333333336, "f28ddcdf0377": 33.333333333333336} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90sJEL0fXiV03ww45ZBM | who-will-win-2023-oscars-in-best-do | 229.51241914636037 | Who will win 2023 Oscars in Best Documentary Feature Film? | 1678663200000 | k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.789177218836338 | True | play | 9f218be0217d | public | 1671718852239 | Mikhail Samin⚡️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678671806808 | 540 | ms | 1678469423686 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiyLd7icu0XSJbIcLXp0TAwP3sPpRk4-DapSxfhzQ=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "10270875e78e", "prob": 0.145138449528589, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.80947249218393, "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.2176361826927, "textFts": "", "contractId": "90sJEL0fXiV03ww45ZBM", "createdTime": 1671718852636, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "mon... | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1671718852479}] | ["oscars-2023"] | 1678469423476 | {"9f218be0217d": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3939556893968005 | dN9p7aBp3WGXER2lGu7B | {"NO": 2251.996314573405, "YES": 179.2664982983775} | 1 | will-we-see-major-supply-shortages | 3181.1981132189458 | Will we see major supply shortages across multiple markets in 2023? | 1702507808050 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8417380833844703 | True | play | YES | public | 1671719099615 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be major news organizations running stories on supply shortages of at least five different consumer goods (e.g., toilet paper, cars, infant formula, etc.) that are in short supply across the USA for longer than a week? \"Fad\" shortages,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1702507808050 | 890 | Duncn | 1702477660746 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671719100536}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1702477660440 | 1702177657980 | 0.89 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4677138681587878 | Ve7bWmEw5hXZ3HX9zzHE | {"NO": 128.37264944025327, "YES": 229.0173913555881} | 0 | will-the-initial-copyright-claim-fo | 370.74803610624394 | Will the initial copyright claim for Zarya Of The Dawn be upheld? | 1676437200000 | nCaHp617xGWrwKIgttaKxD5NlJ73 | cpmm-1 | 1.912283363597388 | True | play | NO | public | 1671720052849 | Imuli | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Zarya Of The Dawn", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " is a graphic novel created by Kristina Kashtanova with Midjourney and was issued a copyright by the United States Copyright Office in mid-September.", "type": "text"}]},... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677217315719 | 170 | Imuli | 1677229939475 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu33Y46q9VGNdqk4PKft1wPXReKcGRkRlfw-k_nhqQ=s96-c | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "nCaHp617xGWrwKIgttaKxD5NlJ73", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671720125425}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "nCaHp617xGWrwKIgttaKxD5NlJ73", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671720053248}, {"name": "US Politics... | ["ai", "technology-default", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1677185611139 | 1677229936570 | 0.33 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1623602133844438 | hiDYLQbnrV9MfRCMUCVc | {"NO": 285.6012692225776, "YES": 2572.409042019311} | 0 | will-manifold-add-feature-where-ai | 2984.6093504229484 | Will Manifold add a feature where AI judges your resolutions and/or provides commentary or advice by the end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.894549083904012 | True | play | NO | public | 1671720128108 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assuming an API that has sufficient capabilities is available, it's plausible that you could have a chatbot/LLM scan your market's headline and resolution criteria, and then give you its opinion about whether your market was resolved correctly.", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705795763503 | 430 | LarsDoucet | 1705795763691 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 22 | 0 | 4 | 12 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1671720128358}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtk... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704087965552 | 1705770297332 | 0.02 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48733738988074937 | NciKFG8Ow7ivYJVfMTDx | {"NO": 192.60151734935954, "YES": 229.67483495433973} | 1 | android-or-ios-poll | 40 | Android or iOS? Poll | 1672289940000 | YMaQL7ttteQSvFH4QPdxjMna1OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5631378943496013 | True | play | YES | public | 1671723044831 | Martoua | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wich do you prefer overall as a smartphone/tablet operating system?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "[YES] ANDROID", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672308927053 | 210 | Martinitis | 1672096348914 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "YMaQL7ttteQSvFH4QPdxjMna1OT2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671723055481}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "YMaQL7ttteQSvFH4QPdxjMna1OT2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1671723045209}, {"name": "Polls", "... | ["technology-default", "fun", "polls"] | 0.5 | 1672096348797 | 1671738290523 | 0.44 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1570644980456936 | IYiGkE78T95pwYNhXNhg | {"NO": 888.207818276872, "YES": 1321.8677894230766} | 0.11127045752041698 | will-hinkley-point-c-be-comple-by-t | 588.9700983501398 | Will Hinkley Point C be complete by the end of June 2027? | 1814396400000 | nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.916916495748776 | False | basic | public | 1671723188097 | Joe Reeve | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hinkley Point C", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is expected to be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "... | BINARY | {"day": 3.0531133177191805e-16, "week": 3.0531133177191805e-16, "month": 3.0531133177191805e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | JoeReeve | 1710189745821 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeRbtYmsn4hySTJgL7GdsHmuUlmnJciT5Zf9enIg=s96-c | 10 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Energy Crisis", "slug": "energy-crisis", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "1hx6HrZb8D9nQsTWDpKM", "createdTime": 1671723755919}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1671723188345}, {"name": "Nucle... | ["energy", "energy-crisis", "nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1710189742301 | 1706369525892 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1161508985734654 | QVhnFllTH1Zyj76ySljM | {"NO": 166.4595446326428, "YES": 1045.901777697921} | 0 | war-in-ukraine-will-russia-lose-110 | 1399.0220552464577 | War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 110,000 troops by the end of 2022? | 1672527540000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.153820095331377 | True | play | NO | public | 1671723474621 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2023 - or... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672658543793 | 230 | itsTomekK | 1672488708351 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Russian Mobilization", "slug": "russian-mobilization", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ezxIfUpZ3tFWftxcjGCP", "createdTime": 1671723474902}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182227129}] | ["russian-mobilization", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672488708171 | 1672476340222 | False | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4318526405869458 | fiBfhfF1GgnTEoieHChd | {"NO": 119.50305861698588, "YES": 197.9893457425989} | 0.3144993033871943 | will-hinkley-point-c-be-completed-f | 70 | Will Hinkley Point C be completed for under £30bn? | 1893456000000 | nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671723705052 | Joe Reeve | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In May 2022, the expected cost of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Hinkley Point C", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 150 | JoeReeve | 1687159042353 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeRbtYmsn4hySTJgL7GdsHmuUlmnJciT5Zf9enIg=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1671723705263}] | ["energy"] | 0.5 | 1687159042053 | 1672654679703 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16630396043044857 | OG6BM8fcK2rpgwyhl6am | {"NO": 110.1731854330232, "YES": 706.7704043697798} | 0 | will-the-penusd-currency-ratio-go-u | 803.2295956302199 | Will the PEN/USD currency ratio go up to 5 PEN per USD before end of 2023? | 1704085140000 | 4E2VCGADaZWfT6opZH5R06h06UR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.042452776741345 | True | play | NO | public | 1671723841670 | Javier Chavez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves with value at market close of last trading day before year end", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704250223146 | 170 | JavierChavez | 1704250223317 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YTQjZCJNG0VH6R4WVsUYFeY6s9yg5e2wfAre09Q=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "4E2VCGADaZWfT6opZH5R06h06UR2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671723842539}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701141098787}] | ["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704077868883 | 1698244069969 | 0.03 | 4E2VCGADaZWfT6opZH5R06h06UR2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18951316373107832 | U7YNHvZlmJtLvO2B4qQI | {"NO": 682.9888361573335, "YES": 1924.9627641215127} | 0.0766074578236632 | is-yitang-zhangs-preprint-on-landau-fd18d6951407 | 1846.0076393819206 | Is Yitang Zhang's preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros correct? | 1735745340000 | yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2 | cpmm-1 | 0.030158362510645152 | 10.031149948268698 | False | basic | public | 1671723962529 | Loppukilpailija | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On 4th of November Yitang Zhang uplodaed a preprint on Landau-Siegel zeros to arXiv: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.02515", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.02515", "... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6162173724640929, "platformFee": 0.6162173724640929, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Loppukilpailija | 1715080182950 | 1.1 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 12 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1671723962831}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129931345}] | ["mathematics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.11904045966375301 | 0.5 | 1715080179644 | 1704123432883 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
T915UV4TZxjlYFTflVLW | when-will-destidarko-be-suspended-f | 453.7181091521926 | When will DestiDarko be suspended from Twitter in 2023? | 1672694321213 | FFoiMafeeGMWknYZ4v9sNrx0jea2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.7128962065226805 | True | play | 0dc5403900be | public | 1671724691923 | Piet Olsen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only permanent / long (1 month+) suspensions will count, no small three-day suspensions or any of the sort will decide this poll, if twitter even does short suspensions. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672694321213 | 1019.9999999999998 | PietOlsen | 1672693045792 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1FEBSF0NutVs0DJMTKePix5K7XNFFZLxmhevK8fQ=s96-c | 9 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "0dc5403900be", "prob": 0.783131851764655, "text": "DestiDarko will not be suspended from Twitter in 2023 / His other accounts will get unbanned Copium", "index": 0, "poolNo": 78.61830172283044, "userId": "FFoiMafeeGMWknYZ4v9sNrx0jea2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 21.771308973857998, "textFts": "'2023':9 'acco... | 9 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "FFoiMafeeGMWknYZ4v9sNrx0jea2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671724692515}] | ["destinygg"] | 1672693045695 | 1672691345052 | {"0dc5403900be": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IwhD5XtGLEYeKrTR1mNP | how-much-will-nuclear-power-cost-by | 55 | How much will nuclear power cost by 2040? (Price per MWe) | 2240611200000 | nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671725097845 | Joe Reeve | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accross all active nuclear power stations in 2040, what will be the least spent per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "MWe (Megawatt Electrical)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watt#MWe", "cl... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 340 | JoeReeve | 1686606056945 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeRbtYmsn4hySTJgL7GdsHmuUlmnJciT5Zf9enIg=s96-c | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "4749af1f331e", "prob": 0.1512287334593573, "text": "Less than $500k per MWe", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.660151939988701, "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 42.992602763186575, "textFts": "'500k':3 'less':1 'mwe':5 'per':4", "contractId": "IwhD5XtGLEYeKrTR1mNP", "createdTime": ... | 3 | [{"name": "Energy Crisis", "slug": "energy-crisis", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "1hx6HrZb8D9nQsTWDpKM", "createdTime": 1671725179703}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1671725098088}, {"name": "Nucle... | ["energy", "energy-crisis", "nuclear-risk", "nuclear-power", "nuclear"] | 1686606056775 | 1672312733511 | False | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23967382683368404 | BH1fABGMz3HrRB2TrZUY | {"NO": 168.88079289139299, "YES": 212.94179966172518} | 0.2000000000000001 | how-long-will-caroline-ellison-be-s | 305.3289324131929 | How long will Caroline Ellison be sentenced in the US? | 1672531140000 | FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.446809267684632 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671726044047 | tofu | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve based on the sentence Caroline Ellison, CEO of Alameda Research, receives:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "0 years - 0%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1-20 years... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672552276027 | 190 | tofu | 1672434007953 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1671726062613}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1671726060294}, {"n... | ["crypto-speculation", "economics-default", "global-macro", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"] | 0.5 | 1672434007790 | 1671751044616 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.610636409880742 | ksMuMNhvE8jBbzJrxZvX | {"NO": 13758.398974590305, "YES": 145.14070870819967} | 1 | will-the-yes-team-maintain-the-long | 45595.9187607917 | Will the Yes team maintain the longest undisrupted dominance? | 1672072950913 | q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3579760975525117 | True | play | YES | public | 1671728821212 | Gamble market | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Yes team achieves dominance by keeping the price at 55% or higher. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The No team achieves dominance by keeping the price at 45% or lower. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672072950913 | 910 | Gamble_market | 1672288015777 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 37 | [{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1671728834324}, {"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "q686a2oLqzeC28I5WKa5hOufEXs1", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1671728830637}, {... | ["fun", "whale-watching", "experimental"] | 0.5 | False | 1672071747833 | 1672288011811 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2242976886692343 | 2WmXZTYrQk6Po4KryruP | {"NO": 194.6437107643761, "YES": 1567.7747114447602} | 0 | will-sanna-marin-still-be-prime-min | 7841.199387245249 | Will Sanna Marin still be Prime Minister of Finland at the conclusion of the next Finnish election (April 2023 or earlier)? | 1681662802281 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.928131248973474 | True | play | NO | public | 1671733202729 | cshunter | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sanna Marin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanna_Marin", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " became leader of the Social Democrats and Prime Minister of Finland after the ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681662802281 | 350 | cash | 1681586336579 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 1671733395281}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "userId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1671733389... | ["politics-default", "elections-world", "european-union", "europe"] | 0.5 | 1681586336254 | 1680478810613 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.43778066586413983 | VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF | {"NO": 389.40259928982255, "YES": 14957.748861884284} | 0 | will-the-leftright-culture-war-come | 132113.6722100245 | Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-1 | 0.4924673712761592 | 0.5278460682153954 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671733827657 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES, if, in my sole opinion, it seems abundantly clear that support for \"AI\" (an umbrella term for all the technologies, and, frankly marketing/branding associated with the term), becomes politically polarized along left/righ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705821197415 | 2055 | LarsDoucet | 1705864897677 | 8.2 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 21 | 537 | 0 | 5 | 200 | [{"name": "AI Culture War", "slug": "ai-culture-war", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "TOVI0Gcvlp0giN0tWMxR", "createdTime": 1675445176222}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671733828182}, {"name": "Culture War... | ["ai", "ai-culture-war", "culture-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.3700647364307583 | 0.5 | 1704085625474 | 1705864896425 | 0.02 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
05DWBxNdq42P0CE0qaPK | who-will-be-joint-oppositions-candi | 1995.4916508358974 | Who will be opposition's joint candidate for Turkey 2023 Presidential Election? | 1677937582746 | AvRWVrkCmqVVCcCYF4f0HddAWPH2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.946491730691092 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671735555157 | Anıl Anar | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joint opposition, AKA 6-party table, is an alliance that will declare a joint candidate for 2023 Presidential Election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve once a candidate is de... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677937582746 | 340 | AnlAnar | 1677882724059 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7Wb9265_ryDfjqNMcT0vjy3jcHFZvRSu25thwgpA=s96-c | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6ad51e92cd2a", "prob": 0.622088616900506, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.84521914196333, "userId": "AvRWVrkCmqVVCcCYF4f0HddAWPH2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.21515794706832, "textFts": "", "contractId": "05DWBxNdq42P0CE0qaPK", "createdTime": 1671735555533, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 3 | [{"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "userId": "AvRWVrkCmqVVCcCYF4f0HddAWPH2", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1671735836750}, {"name": "Turkey", "slug": "turkey", "userId": "AvRWVrkCmqVVCcCYF4f0HddAWPH2", "groupId": "ZKotnh6fSOYdsbC77Vit", "createdTime": 1671735555391}, {"name": "... | ["turkey", "elections-world", "politics-default"] | 1677882723836 | 1677854642515 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.836989883316567 | 0eA8O2WddDbhs4CymtE3 | {"NO": 3450.3310601933745, "YES": 191.22476731672828} | 1 | will-sbf-do-interviews | 4798.605788673205 | Will SBF do interviews? | 1698972462024 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.386365347004614 | True | play | YES | public | 1671738357671 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plural ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1698972462024 | 370 | Gigacasting | 1698863296528 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671738357955}, {"name": "SBF WTF?", "slug": "sbf-wtf", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "TmI7cQOhHnhoK0ePz6NE", "createdTime": 1671739685464}, {"name": "SBF Trial", "slug": "s... | ["ftx", "sbf-wtf", "sbf-trial"] | 0.5 | 1698863296411 | 1698722626187 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47653493607382036 | GpDty1z1kXnLVtfxZAC6 | {"NO": 120.53822056160318, "YES": 951.7378231776353} | 0 | will-sbf-interviewtour | 1267.1598683607276 | Will SBF do at least five interviews? | 1704088740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4585635744534515 | True | play | NO | public | 1671738384082 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704408073734 | 390 | Gigacasting | 1704408073942 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671738384385}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703121528645}] | ["ftx", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1699643333699 | 1704408067805 | 0.1 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RA7T1zKGNIwyCqSF4E1i | what-focus-will-the-first-ai-startu | 238.1839713101237 | What focus will the first AI startup in 2023 to announce a $100M+ fundraise have? | 1679556421433 | ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.76362176762093 | True | play | 86969095931c | public | 1671738528111 | Reality Quotient | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Going by first to announce as listed either in Crunchbase or Pitchbook, not first to sign a deal (too difficult to determine.) By my discretion, companies not focused on AI but claiming to be won't count. In particular, companies making picks and s... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1679556421433 | 520 | RealityQuotient | 1679556302912 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRealityQuotient%2F1ibfR9B3aE.52?alt=media&token=d93aaf2f-c14b-456b-bfb8-027eb4381783 | 6 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "86969095931c", "prob": 0.5206871619113307, "text": "Model Development: Chat bots, Image generation, Advertising, etc. Creating the actual models.", "index": 0, "poolNo": 153.20203646146155, "userId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 141.0284490744018, "textFts": "'actual':11 'advert... | 6 | [{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1671738781996}, {"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1671738752167}, {"name": ... | ["technology-default", "business", "finance", "private-markets", "ai", "startups", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 1672610956996 | 1679556299772 | False | {"86969095931c": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6090934186876618 | SHyABeY0h9qNd7m02hM4 | {"NO": 759.1348839862035, "YES": 191.32998304363062} | 0.8564204378649686 | planecrash-how-many-popcorn-reacts | 528.4345969604092 | Planecrash: how many popcorn reacts will there be on the latest #alltags post until there is a new tag? | 1672644086729 | nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2787595458316048 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671738643106 | aps | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically this post in Eliezerfic: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/936175012967227404/1053203301002387526", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}, {"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672644086729 | 350 | aps | 1672643667507 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1671739162371}, {"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "nJT3zUkB6RMdenbRMgpxF6Ni1mp1", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1671739164868}] | ["glowfic", "planecrash"] | 0.5588306254094444 | 1672643667389 | 0.8564204378649686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8834867629947716 | 6OrkO203AIhSUZ6sftRr | {"NO": 1978.499074141286, "YES": 859.3155650362787} | 0.9458245378266226 | will-an-aicreated-movie-have-100mm | 2042.901783810979 | Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2028? | 1830319140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0.15346853350888684 | 10.190212665207943 | False | basic | public | 1671738736440 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Written, animated, and directed by AI", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Human prompt and final cut selection allowed", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-16, "week": 5.551115123125783e-16, "month": 5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1688561371370 | 1.1 | 21 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671738736901}] | ["ai"] | 0.13627876524615698 | 0.5 | 1688561371259 | 1671748242522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.606764787568968 | XKMQcRbPLuXV6XhGG8RM | {"NO": 998.7712874385579, "YES": 991.3345617968056} | 0.6085465998627428 | will-an-aicreated-movie-have-100mm-cc035222da4c | 425.43709392712356 | Will an AI-created movie have 100mm views by 2025? | 1735711140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.680679969260702 | False | basic | public | 1671738803807 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Written, animated, and directed by AI", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Human prompt and final cut selection allowed", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -1.6653345369377348e-15, "week": -1.6653345369377348e-15, "month": -1.6653345369377348e-15} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1709214938586 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671738804283}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1709214938408 | 1672338584721 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11426739769111224 | EH4fgDPJhMz5hzhW9WvX | {"NO": 334.4379396558185, "YES": 468.26019013840124} | 0 | will-sbf-skip-bail | 294.6177853914901 | Will SBF skip bail? | 1698973224366 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.507908075480742 | True | play | NO | public | 1671739136631 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1699139159454 | 370 | Gigacasting | 1699139158362 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671739136876}, {"name": "SBF Trial", "slug": "sbf-trial", "groupId": "4fb66c1a-82d9-4346-8a4d-668980166ef9", "createdTime": 1696357127248}] | ["ftx", "sbf-trial"] | 0.5 | 1682891674742 | 1699139156622 | 0.08 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0887864550957648 | WrWc18NaDSHf7s2uaKda | {"NO": 378.5796262646976, "YES": 130.51037707227428} | 0.22 | planecrash-discord-how-many-popcorn | 107.27101404998683 | Planecrash discord: how many popcorn reacts will there be on the latest #prediction-market post until there is a new tag? | 1672656963409 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2642691673822015 | True | play | MKT | public | 1671739194014 | Tim P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Specifically this post: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/1022878418653679707/1055573254787579944", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discord.com/channels/9361516920414... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672656963409 | 350 | TimP | 1672656874346 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1671739225280}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671739216873}, {"name": "Glowfic", "slug":... | ["fun", "planecrash", "glowfic"] | 0.06 | 1672656874135 | 1672656755518 | 0.22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2462619236119727 | lAA9zDzXAGGsJpvs1QSj | {"NO": 726.7686298516398, "YES": 11190.220307027144} | 0 | will-either-of-sbfs-parents-be-char | 20079.603181127382 | Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research? | 1704089421852 | z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0.05076436761668115 | 0.5352977066385303 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671740385674 | TANSTAAFL | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if charges are published from official government source or other highly reputable sources on or before Dec 31, 2023. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 20... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704089421852 | 1465 | TANSTAAFL | 1704089422769 | 1.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c | 3 | 54 | 0 | 31 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671740386624}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime... | ["us-politics", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf-trial", "sbf", "ftx", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.14560229539053898 | 0.5 | 1703926745518 | 1698875756946 | 0.02 | z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5002920639476002 | 87g3F4phT454SW1g3rc4 | {"NO": 127.67591933658669, "YES": 123.04477957108088} | 0.5095276161734207 | will-the-ai-generated-image-for-thi | 20 | Will the AI generated image for this market be one that I enjoy? | 1671864776511 | KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.34652444387108 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671742433175 | LukeW | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671864776511 | 130 | LukeW | 1671864748512 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671742433645}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671742614223}] | ["ai", "fun"] | 0.5 | 1671864748306 | 0.51 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31435591246876826 | yGCAcfUrLLUDclOQ2Zfv | {"NO": 176.74331013658727, "YES": 2372.8196192881805} | 0 | will-any-member-of-the-uk-cabinet-r-6430c94da34c | 2737.353749283735 | Will any member of the UK Cabinet resign by the end of March? | 1680307140000 | HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4865893323336206 | True | play | NO | public | 1671742616594 | Nico | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if any current member of the UK Cabinet (full list here:", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://members.parliament.uk/Government/Cabinet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://members.parlia... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680770046689 | 430 | Nico | 1680683504488 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c | 0 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 14 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671742617411}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1671742691417}] | ["politics-default", "uk-politics"] | 0.5 | 1680300234075 | 1680683497236 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | zLkBA4kNXqbqOstZUPYf | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.5 | will-i-make-it-to-a-nyc-airport-by | 0 | Will I make it to a NYC airport by 2pm EST on Saturday, the 24th? | 1671745627088 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671745591232 | Rick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm supposed to be on Jet Blue flight 0416 departing at 12:35pm tomorrow (Friday, the 23rd) from SFO to JFK, but weather might cancel or delay flights today and tomorrow. I'm flying with one other person and we're willing to pay at least ~$1k to ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671745627088 | 50 | meefburger | 1671745591232 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7133725499816775 | Gyaaxodj5qiFKv9lLEJA | {"NO": 3842.403168870715, "YES": 274.675277477371} | 1 | will-i-make-it-to-a-nyc-airport-by-18287abbb1f0 | 3795 | Will I make it to a NYC airport by 2pm on Saturday, the 24th? | 1671849689702 | 287mRHZBAUUW9yoOWEhVnoBzELG3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1191990497614088 | True | play | YES | public | 1671745798923 | Rick | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm supposed to be on Jet Blue flight 0416 departing at 12:35pm tomorrow (Friday, the 23rd) from SFO to JFK, but weather might cancel or delay flights today and tomorrow. I'm flying with one other person and we're willing to pay at least ~$1k to ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671849689702 | 630 | meefburger | 1671840338367 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJykkaGEH9cF_xiV7nNoOSawN8UYtN1G7NG4-CGs=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 1671840338141 | 1671824729339 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3498708672670442 | qxwA0EI0NnO1O6BMETm4 | {"NO": 915.907504749184, "YES": 4.623981376050871} | 1 | will-metaculus-let-users-set-the-sc | 1354.1 | Will Metaculus let users set the scale of the bet slider by the end of 2023? | 1703906016985 | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.09386063459155 | True | play | YES | public | 1671746293874 | VivaLaPanda | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When I go to bet on something today, the slider tops out at 100. It'd be nice to be able to configure the scale of that slider to go much higher.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Metaculus... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1703906016985 | 150 | VivaLaPanda | 1703906017709 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1671746294424}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "create... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703905505974 | 1703905881400 | 0.99 | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13277590194244898 | p4rxBVmoh58MwnMtnP1a | {"NO": 905.1253587404108, "YES": 1550.6483381574244} | 0.08203678216383813 | will-online-gambling-be-a-notable-i | 1019.1510187340901 | Will online gambling be a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election debates? | 1730678340000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 3.9785052346542725e-16 | 10.022172096191497 | False | basic | public | 1671748574698 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Online gambling is exploding, multiple states are currently considering bills regarding eGambling, and big companies making profit off of the masses is good grist for the political mill. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragr... | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Duncn | 1701718146686 | 0.5 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 19 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671748575772}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "cre... | ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election"] | 0.10467360362061627 | 0.5 | 1701718145883 | 1687353512512 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2689650916984361 | cvMp8ejrMEn3ZYcVftlM | {"NO": 76.21019237390985, "YES": 2070.723347347449} | 0 | will-shamima-begum-return-to-the-uk | 2786.1664609351938 | Will Shamima Begum return to the UK in 2023? | 1704067140000 | sgFjgccX7qepPC1oM2eAeN8TURW2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1804571691483745 | True | play | NO | public | 1671748791413 | Ian Leslie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This can be a visit or permanently.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704071003372 | 210 | IanLeslie | 1704071003673 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "sgFjgccX7qepPC1oM2eAeN8TURW2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671748792379}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131459526}] | ["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704067123280 | 0.01 | sgFjgccX7qepPC1oM2eAeN8TURW2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7069926530113569 | Pc9WHFc8XnJF27STVSUR | {"NO": 334.28779000357486, "YES": 98.16685848652884} | 1 | will-at-least-500-customers-suffer | 225.2538281449131 | Will at least 500 customers suffer electricity outages in the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, on Dec 23, 2022? | 1671858000000 | iLHyDloRxre8jcKWVOw5X4Y370C2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.767515237745113 | True | play | YES | public | 1671749029381 | freeatnet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671870325280 | 150 | freeatnet | 1671870246641 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "iLHyDloRxre8jcKWVOw5X4Y370C2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1671749030254}] | ["weather"] | 0.5 | 1671844727284 | 1671870238865 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.26607284499825046 | O1ab1xUo3hRIb699dFTm | {"NO": 315.60615540449476, "YES": 3393.736361838138} | 0 | will-destiny-get-his-internet-insta | 6137.6923997469175 | Will destiny get his internet installed tomorrow? | 1671857940000 | WNqWTc8uzGZs5CHQlbL7myNdLJu1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.074033068756902 | True | play | NO | public | 1671749072854 | nmwood _ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will destiny get his internet installed by the end of 12/23/22? ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671858393318 | 710 | nmwood_ | 1671853241521 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2KOteOLTPsnSZA68SUJWWVH8V1ZrvaS22ALblm=s96-c | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "WNqWTc8uzGZs5CHQlbL7myNdLJu1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671749073716}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1671853241388 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2284316673391338 | qz11WqbxwfSnIndTi0o0 | {"NO": 97.4367728163501, "YES": 217.50396129335522} | 0.1170981567691309 | will-nhs-englands-budget-be-under-1 | 212.45044022881342 | Will NHS England's budget be under £100bn in 2030/31? | 1924992000000 | nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671750225005 | Joe Reeve | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the year 2022/23 NHS England's budget is £150bn. The NHS' budget has increased consistently over time at a seeming unsustainable rate. This market resolves positively if the reported annual commissioning budget is under £100bn for the year 2030... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 130 | JoeReeve | 1703173634572 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqeRbtYmsn4hySTJgL7GdsHmuUlmnJciT5Zf9enIg=s96-c | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1671750225445}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "nUaw5mlfc4YY7dcUg2K0EwakiEH3", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1671750317817}] | ["uk-politics", "health"] | 0.5 | 1703173634411 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1623269674833006 | iRL4DedEEPWlSvRUd9Yv | {"NO": 958.345514658829, "YES": 1122.5351054841144} | 0.14195435349609234 | how-many-months-of-prison-time-will | 2524.979546035642 | How many months of prison time will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to? | 1735711200000 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.8277612050449 | False | play | public | 1671751022153 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything greater than 30 years resolves to 360.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.07141637217113123, "platformFee": 0.07141637217113123, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1718952783772 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671751022394}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737272669}, {"name": "🎆 New ... | ["ftx", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09543185317448973 | 0.1 | 1715518837009 | 1718952782777 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16129743706282682 | kB0iC1V5MCzs47wOs0Sn | {"NO": 438.23540619686605, "YES": 225.38252784993554} | 0.2721683637424101 | how-many-months-of-prison-time-will-e005c8f2f888 | 775.3557171496378 | How many months of prison time will Gary Wang be sentenced to? | 1735711200000 | qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1671751100983 | M.H. | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything >240 resolves to 240.", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 405 | MilfordHammerschmidt | 1713139036277 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671751101341}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511357294}, {"name": "🎆 New ... | ["ftx", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.1 | 1713139031087 | 1710839649499 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6111401508847697 | zaGI7hEJTImOYbXBIyR7 | {"NO": 258.62222321439924, "YES": 123.5428347695488} | 1 | will-destiny-return-to-stream-tonig | 380.20012749615273 | Will Destiny return to stream tonight? (Dec 22/22) | 1671764292740 | eHdTWdZkxbTlulunUMlzKolU5nd2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.059913592347284 | True | play | YES | public | 1671752010335 | benjy355 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves at 12am EST if No (if Yes resolves when he goes live)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-23 12:00 am", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "p... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671764292740 | 210 | BenjaminWheeler | 1671763202938 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "eHdTWdZkxbTlulunUMlzKolU5nd2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671752011216}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1671763202768 | 0.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3666065040148154 | oAf8y83fSzUetTpGG0lK | {"NO": 213.2043935035833, "YES": 1094.493071935484} | 0 | will-destiny-talk-to-any-of-the-noj | 1560.0199142735805 | Will Destiny talk to any of the NoJumper crew about the DJ Akademiks beef? | 1675238340000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1871291947083626 | True | play | NO | public | 1671752545245 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adam addresses AK and brings up Destiny", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO9HOhxURA8&ab_channel=NoJumperC... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675249597018 | 410 | johnleoks | 1710218608778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675234370374 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32999998105491485 | IQdmK8rjR5rdmsxlZ6Xq | {"NO": 107.47467214977056, "YES": 264.8536401592465} | 1 | will-a-new-uniform-polychoron-be-di | 265.45389040975635 | Will a new uniform polychoron be discovered by June 2023? | 1681943705579 | j6PotXfJ4jg5tW3y0hwR2DVTEPZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.47128215034949 | True | play | YES | public | 1671752561721 | metachirality | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves positively if a new non-dense uniform polychoron by the definition on Jonathan Bowers' website (linked below), without skew elements and with every vertex lying on the surface of a glome, is discovered before June 1, 2023, 12... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681943705579 | 150 | metachirality | 1681944804483 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5N-aYOVDSabFsmLe2uytD7hjl-58e1xIStWXh9-A=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "j6PotXfJ4jg5tW3y0hwR2DVTEPZ2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1671752562002}] | ["mathematics"] | 0.5 | 1681751337299 | 1681944801025 | 0.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47476451789218543 | TTgJ7ZgEuzlPFCAKcp3Q | {"NO": 282.65238679906645, "YES": 4953.515363138564} | 0 | will-destinys-subreddit-reach-172k | 21379.190361367757 | Will Destiny's subreddit reach 172k members by the end of the year? | 1672559940000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6760724315020474 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671752610737 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/new/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/new/", "class": null,... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672560104058 | 1310 | johnleoks | 1710218566494 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 0 | 67 | 0 | 61 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1672559923465 | 1673543462158 | 0.09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3669961223368337 | EnOV1V6m1o8NVbSS6E1v | {"NO": 238.0508144941262, "YES": 724.4001799906773} | 0 | will-destiny-debate-someone-about-t | 898.3451020936993 | Will Destiny debate someone about the Rich OTK sexual assault allegations? | 1675238340000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1599120603138284 | True | play | NO | public | 1671752893218 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP3TnXgyK0w&t=1s&ab_channel=Destiny", "type": "text", "mar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675249701048 | 370 | johnleoks | 1710218536104 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1673694435941 | 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21564305547971052 | r0UsYvrWU8zobiuNtBVS | {"NO": 245.59829897037733, "YES": 1269.4827337424904} | 0 | will-destiny-have-a-workout-stream | 2166.9499820401916 | Will Destiny have a workout stream in his new apartment's gym by end of January? | 1675238340000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.6806755111808245 | True | play | NO | public | 1671753186624 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675249587282 | 370 | johnleoks | 1710218616330 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675095919315 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3682917525214159 | TSCIgjasAjG3c7dAEr2o | {"NO": 20.405504198206472, "YES": 50766.44938157051} | 0 | will-destiny-have-a-pool-stream-in | 50563.49365041933 | Will Destiny have a pool stream in his new apartment pool? | 1680349963534 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7542793690972016 | True | play | NO | public | 1671753265025 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680349963534 | 370 | johnleoks | 1710218566459 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1680349959724 | 1676668794281 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5457667844267434 | KU4CBIZpTTcAdfEw8X8G | {"NO": 164.7034760792583, "YES": 2650.389244629847} | 0 | will-destiny-argue-with-melina-on-s | 4754.184599711447 | Will Destiny argue with Melina on stream about the apartment internet conundrum? | 1675238340000 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9508871546847559 | True | play | NO | public | 1671753373441 | johnleoks | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be on Destiny's stream, not Melina's.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675249676010 | 890 | johnleoks | 1710218546620 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 2 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1675131450920 | 1672611891715 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2178967358650717 | mQpvD8OBmACzaGiBlpi0 | {"NO": 180.39090025845348, "YES": 549.3711422380711} | 0 | will-cookie-clicker-add-another-bui | 375.95961120924676 | Will Cookie Clicker add another building by Christmas 2022? | 1672041540000 | dZtZg84b9ZQ0nOgdk5Fy5arOQCt2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2379842170537128 | True | play | NO | public | 1671753445152 | Songstress | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Orteil has mentioned on Tumblr that he's working on a final building update, let's see if its released on/by Christmas like last year's building beta. Resolves to Yes if an update containing an additional building type is released by December 25, 2... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672041759507 | 250 | Songstress | 1672041410340 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7dqvQmU3xFd_f75dIydBesn-O5I_MJH8LabApV=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "dZtZg84b9ZQ0nOgdk5Fy5arOQCt2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1671753445385}] | ["gaming"] | 0.5 | 1672041410191 | 0.08 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.