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0.5

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1686297474953

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0.23867809094817716

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{"NO": 1149.9676639981656, "YES": 2408.060839807402}

0.1302184683628018

by-2025-over-60-of-americans-will-b

5311.830509809003

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

1767225540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0.1392509814248067

9.342583252842575

False

basic

public

1671640105876

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on Gallup surveys. 33% said aliens in 2019. 41% said aliens in 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria: Resolves based on first post-January 1st, 2025 Gallup survey asking \"We ...

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DismalScientist

1719567633202

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https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

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1691283143539

0.7283236401877072

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{"NO": 3289.784538337796, "YES": 83.5403121352458}

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will-eag-london-2023-be-fully-cater

8575.006738019256

Will EAG London 2023 be fully catered

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B8PYL9aUt5Qluab7SnVP2sCgs082

cpmm-1

0

2.9383297518287237

True

play

YES

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1671640176833

Elliot Davies

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will EAG London 2023 be fully catered? Resolves positive if breakfast lunch and dinner is served at applicable times.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves negative if not all applicable meals are serve...

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will-any-republicans-members-of-con

175.6686990822725

Will any Republicans members of Congress heckle Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his Congressional address?

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cpmm-1

0

1.9531851766921775

True

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NO

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1671640180879

BRTD

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will-zelenskyy-call-for-a-return-of

2777.1662126276888

Will Zelenskyy call for a return of Crimea to Ukraine during his address to Congress?

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cpmm-1

0

1.748628131774717

True

play

NO

public

1671640210324

Brian T. Edwards

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450

BTE

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1671739934525

1671742583157

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will-i-be-at-blue-cafe-before-12

92.04955455058953

Will I be at blue cafe before 12?

1671642140628

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cpmm-1

0

4.324695190593736

True

play

NO

public

1671640375556

Kaivu

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved to yes if I'm at blue cafe before noon et.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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Kaivu

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will-destidarko-be-permanently-susp

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Will the Twitter account @DestiDarko be permanently suspended by February 2023?

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cpmm-1

0

0.7834811548862131

True

play

NO

public

1671641124170

DownToBiscuits

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This account", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/DestiDarko", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 21, 11:47am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will @...

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clockwork

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will-scoria-die-today

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Will scoria die today?

1671683123104

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cpmm-1

0

1.2534873190948925

True

play

NO

public

1671641323963

dacamell

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1671683123104

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dacamell

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[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "pquGj6Gg63abxJ5vFMr2EAbbtQW2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671641324412}, {"name": "Tombs of Scoria", "slug": "tombs-of-scoria", "userId": "pquGj6Gg63abxJ5vFMr2EAbbtQW2", "groupId": "AXY3pkkh8cVqM6lxgmjK", "createdTime": 1671641480816}]

["destinygg", "tombs-of-scoria"]

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1671681846755

1671683117698

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{"NO": 1741.744121321124, "YES": 85.51590160749562}

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will-any-less-wrong-post-published

1872.805321864042

Will any Less Wrong post published in 2023 get 600 or more karma by the end of the year?

1676380566975

tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2

cpmm-1

2.7772057953090052

True

play

YES

public

1671642953445

Multicore

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only posts published after January 1, 2023 at midnight UTC are eligible. Will an eligible post have a karma score of 600 or more by market close?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Karma scores c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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0

1676380566975

210

Multicore

1676380506324

0

https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa

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0

https://firebasestorage.…972-1923b17eb947

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[{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1671642953669}]

["lesswrong"]

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1676309205917

1676380503583

0.98

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{"NO": 1790.5516090678384, "YES": 1749.8460964339338}

0.6

the-fda-will-approve-an-ai-develope

8479.950180831796

The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.

1893455940000

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cpmm-1

0.02317670871618729

7.70258178152671

False

basic

public

1671644749386

Reality Quotient

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The drug company will credit key steps of the discovery or steps in the treatment process to AI/ML techniques. The treatment must be approved before 2030 by the FDA for a condition afflicting at least 1 million people at the time, which had no prev...

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RealityQuotient

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["ai", "science-default", "technology-default", "ai-impacts"]

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will-the-first-market-on-my-recomme

2652.025641463295

Will the first market on my recommended have 50 traders?

1671714139774

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cpmm-1

0

5.546516140780552

True

play

YES

public

1671645093766

Wobbles

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the number of active traders on the first market in my recommended is 50 or more when I open manifold tomorrow. I'll upload a picture whenever I get on tomorrow.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1671714139774

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Wobbles

1671714094959

0

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https://firebasestorage.…7b5-09184bcbc054

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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671645094209}]

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1671714094809

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is-elon-musk-going-to-find-a-new-ce

1630.9965785141878

Is Elon Musk going to find a new CEO for Tesla before the end of the year?

1672531140000

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cpmm-1

0

2.114177004477802

True

play

NO

public

1671645280983

Jamalrc7

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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1681523245175

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Jamalrc7

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1672440497408

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0.6805799101141171

will-magic-be-real-before-i-die

419.94498258325103

will magic be real before i die

4102444740000

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cpmm-1

0

9.585343936969316

False

basic

public

1671645394860

Cimorene Blume

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

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1000

CimoreneBlume

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will-m-still-be-exchangeable-for-ca

118414.1705709107

Will Ṁ still be exchangeable for cash by June 2023?

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cpmm-1

0

-0.058935010418819544

True

basic

YES

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1671645537848

enemel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES, if there are still easy ways to exchange Mana between two users. Current ways to do that are Manalinks and maybe markets, as far as I know. Other ways might exist or be created, like private markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "par...

BINARY

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1686237856489

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enemel

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will-the-top-marginal-tax-rate-in-t

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Will the top marginal tax rate in the United States be changed by Congressional action before the end of 2023?

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cpmm-1

0.23168500274543338

1.599091445388808

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1671645905963

Super Tax Genius

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bill must be passed and signed by President before 12/31/2023. Tax rate does not have to go into effect in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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1704088906481

510

SuperTaxGenius

1704088906818

1.4

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will-the-philadelphia-eagles-win-th

96244.0199027941

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl?

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cpmm-1

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0.8587033620544755

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NO

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fhs1000

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cpmm-multi-1

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Would me and Adith beat Sreekar and arul in a 2v2 to 11?

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