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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.6653302721303173 | Wb1JwUan7WKMwVJXZP3f | {"NO": 617.8582813990836, "YES": 55.90616407045687} | 1 | will-flight-as-835-fly-on-december | 549.0384574845368 | Will flight AS 835 fly on December 24th? | 1671940003278 | a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.28992461944541 | True | play | YES | public | 1671850882950 | Matthew | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The flight was cancelled today (December 23rd) due to ice. Will it fly tomorrow?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671940003278 | 150 | Matthew | 1671939994599 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.5 | 1671939994490 | 1671852555677 | 0.82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14676281256608698 | 9YW5pE2jT3aOJ2uAjqPE | {"NO": 725.8145532824335, "YES": 2929.023868517973} | 0 | we-will-have-evidence-that-sbf-and | 3266.3303328074535 | Will we have evidence that SBF and Caroline became romantically involved after she handed him over to the feds by the date the SBF biography written by Michael Lewis is published? | 1696997169191 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7523483997532492 | True | play | NO | public | 1671850997740 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Michael Lewis is a famous biographer who was in the Bahamas during November 2022 as FTX collapsed. He's writing a book about Sam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves under fou... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696997169191 | 940 | MP | 1696694092308 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 2 | 34 | 0 | 29 | [{"name": "FTX", "slug": "ftx", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "0YV8Cv4WhFWcbUrk4hHV", "createdTime": 1671851016739}, {"name": "SBF WTF?", "slug": "sbf-wtf", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "TmI7cQOhHnhoK0ePz6NE", "createdTime": 1671851007143}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "... | ["ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf", "sbf-wtf", "ftx", "effective-altruism"] | 0.5 | 1696694092183 | 1696511827928 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4422742208374714 | bMdapPGhp4v16cwypFMM | {"NO": 4576.713948475835, "YES": 34398.42621014781} | 0.0954386187760461 | amplified-10x-conditional-on-oliver | 34283.5990156842 | AMPLIFIED 10X: Conditional on Oliver Habryka trying really hard for a month, will he become the next CEO of Twitter? | 1675208462336 | PqkwVSxsduVzu6vfEclKspi3LH22 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.05407603199364264 | True | plus | CANCEL | public | 1671851157131 | Ronny Fernandez | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "THIS IS A CONDITIONAL AND AMPLIFIED MARKET. PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION CAREFULLY. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to yes if Oliver Habryka spends 40 hours or more putting in a ge... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675208462336 | 11230 | RonnyFernandez | 1675018485813 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwwChwkFiNDFXDl5ugXBwLCN0Nn0vbe1YyRnLpQ=s96-c | 6 | 36 | 0 | 37 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "PqkwVSxsduVzu6vfEclKspi3LH22", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1671851157907}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "gGA5SL1mLxnctQcYeOOq", "createdTime": 168387671564... | ["us-politics", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"] | 0.5 | 1675018485669 | 1673289841852 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.267592591098967 | TZHsXrEoe8i51ApSwBjD | {"NO": 979.583086100943, "YES": 997.668354365431} | 0.2640225158400454 | sometime-before-2031-ai-is-going-to | 781.8144844697961 | Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless. | 1896163140000 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590140464710371 | False | basic | public | 1671853998398 | Nathan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Following on this useful input from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Steven", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/StevenK", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", I shall clarify my resolu... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NathanHelmBurger | 1703231724090 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "groupId": "DnxTZ1P5XEEfnHxy7Q7d", "createdTime": 1671863114101}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1671853998800}] | ["ai", "ai-safety"] | 0.5 | 1703231723931 | 1675906261571 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8481842248071588 | 4Qzhu4ye0f32hu8eQ6l0 | {"NO": 326.09881771739936, "YES": 229.9814973661028} | 1 | by-the-end-of-2023-manifold-will-ad | 115 | By the end of 2023, Manifold will add the option for users to selectively hide topics and specific markets from appearing on their feeds. | 1671866265039 | z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.693475701964584 | True | play | YES | public | 1671855398908 | Nathan | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would love this feature, it would greatly increase my enjoyment and use of the site. I am creating this market in the hopes that it encourages others who also like this idea to chime in.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "parag... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671866265039 | 290 | NathanHelmBurger | 1671871137577 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "z0hsC2huTjZ1Ql0UPetjZjUFC3j2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1671855399346}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1671861036877 | 1671871133251 | 0.89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7419339283156166 | gyYFoTUCj2VUEjleWsR2 | {"NO": 279.55170655806774, "YES": 817.156997574861} | 0 | will-i-climb-v8-by-2024 | 619.6906549920642 | Will I climb v8 by 2024? | 1704089945555 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.8595269634006769 | True | play | NO | public | 1671858102851 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently I climb v6 regularly and v7 very occasionally. I do rather a lot of dedicated climbing training.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704089945555 | 630 | vluzko | 1704090070114 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671858103147}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130652737}] | ["personal-goals", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.09878708794018719 | 0.5 | 1703809004392 | 1704090069652 | 0.5 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6768022534921732 | 9pkcl5GNC427DGhVuWwg | {"NO": 3902.7449417950056, "YES": 26.019400888562586} | 1 | will-destiny-be-live-by-4pm-tomorro | 4174.667831444691 | Will Destiny be live by 4pm tomorrow? | 1671913231392 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.424798874894713 | True | play | YES | public | 1671859260146 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 24th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671913231392 | 170 | Wobbles | 1671913228097 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671859260682}] | ["destinygg"] | 0.5 | 1671913227819 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7011038941078784 | YOS7g4QrjNDG8v2q4pYw | {"NO": 2447.9559352250176, "YES": 91.45309034076945} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-by-4pm-on-chri | 2866.386291243398 | Will Destiny go live by 4pm on Christmas? | 1672007200359 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5289247905018613 | True | play | YES | public | 1671859315121 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 25th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672007200359 | 290 | Wobbles | 1672007197952 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 14 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672007196876 | 0.93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6902034093530615 | XvUCDEGFIjHFUFpP32sV | {"NO": 1172.0460955947858, "YES": 114.30871181255243} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-by-4pm-on-dec | 1207.8590941869104 | Will Destiny go live by 4pm on Dec 26th? | 1672092300000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1474236441765524 | True | play | YES | public | 1671859355529 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 26th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672099564973 | 250 | Wobbles | 1672091800499 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672091800347 | 1672091793918 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.42381407901784157 | T3gOZo3abboL1r4janG2 | {"NO": 71.8269047374638, "YES": 1393.3330672344991} | 0 | will-destiny-go-live-by-4pm-on-dec-12217744a10c | 1417.4684498986235 | Will Destiny go live by 4pm on Dec 27th? | 1672178563346 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.178339256009731 | True | play | NO | public | 1671859395556 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 27th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672178563346 | 310 | Wobbles | 1672178366346 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 13 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672178366169 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5839618348789912 | VlBIHWNOq2vaI56k6tO1 | {"NO": 4067.3672203158294, "YES": 29.445138994993613} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-by-4pm-on-dec-c1d14be5b0b8 | 4957.8019789036025 | Will Destiny go live by 4pm on Dec 28th? | 1672260457874 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5851403831208226 | True | play | YES | public | 1671859429183 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 28th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672260457874 | 410 | Wobbles | 1672260455058 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 18 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672260454908 | 1672257262349 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5225405296889966 | U2r8nFoM4XFGXy1fa5AV | {"NO": 93.44134665953646, "YES": 766.524361614893} | 0 | will-destiny-go-live-by-4pm-on-dec-f47a0385d6c9 | 2854.791889495051 | Will Destiny go live by 4pm on Dec 29th? | 1672351500000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.649330673568159 | True | play | NO | public | 1671859526339 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 29th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672360421138 | 410 | Wobbles | 1672361285065 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672351468631 | 1672361281005 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5955086787660505 | n8c2GSZ9Y3oHSGLU8oQH | {"NO": 1848.7299930250906, "YES": 127.50427990346383} | 1 | will-destiny-go-live-by-4pm-on-dec-be09171294c4 | 3389.320958228496 | Will Destiny go live by 4pm on Dec 30th? | 1672437900000 | UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5199352083976017 | True | play | YES | public | 1671859652971 | Wobbles | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny is live on any channel by 4pm CST on Dec 30th. (streams going past midnight from the previous day do not count, must be a new stream)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672443009414 | 470 | Wobbles | 1672441118040 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1672437843304 | 1672441117217 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.8681211651592236 | JGKTU6dFBmo9luu8U53S | {"NO": 3939.9999999999995, "YES": 67.40009357234656} | 1 | at-the-end-of-q2-will-i-have-more-t | 3790 | At the end of Q2, will I have more than 200 followers on the fediverse? | 1688174700000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.23887164387452 | True | play | YES | public | 1671935156265 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not be including accounts owned by me that follow me. AFAIK there are 2 of those.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-06-30 9:25 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688710871346 | 150 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1688331958374 | 0.2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1671935181492}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1671935157098}, {"name": "Fed... | ["personal-goals", "olivia", "fediverse", "ancient-markets"] | 0.11360484618945323 | 0.5 | 1688174326903 | 1688331956302 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.0519206782446614 | fxCaTe3iYf8Ei9BgqUeZ | {"NO": 327.3790239281535, "YES": 1750.661767985292} | 0 | will-edward-snowden-be-the-next-ceo | 1879.96170734812 | Will Edward Snowden be the next CEO of Twitter? | 1683908596888 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.052550340061741 | True | play | NO | public | 1671942205976 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves when Elon Musk appoints a successor and will stay open until that happens, except will resolve NO if Snowden is offered the job and publicly turns it down or if Snowden dies before Musk announces a successor. ", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683908596888 | 410 | BTE | 1710451939262 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "groupId": "gGA5SL1mLxnctQcYeOOq"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"] | 0.5 | 1683907501327 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15023399204428486 | zoqFNIDPXPyMf1DDN5lg | {"NO": 277.05204314243457, "YES": 4234.714922502185} | 0 | will-shivon-zilis-be-the-next-ceo-o | 7065.7030641919455 | Will Shivon Zilis be the next CEO of Twitter? | 1683908545526 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0787852646743383 | True | play | NO | public | 1671942357484 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She already works for Musk running Neuralink and they had twins together via surrogate last year. Talk about being \"all in\"!!! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Will Shivon Zilis be the next CEO of Twitter?", "src": "https... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1683908545526 | 450 | BTE | 1710451962522 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Twitter CEO", "slug": "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a", "groupId": "gGA5SL1mLxnctQcYeOOq"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"] | 0.5 | 1683908088628 | 1683838872050 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4702938138085716 | Btp80UeyVpyxe36QoZIP | {"NO": 238.97848088701008, "YES": 259.759340277078} | 0 | will-anyone-bribe-me-to-resolve-thi | 371.79088748098377 | Will anyone bribe me to resolve this market to YES? | 1672473600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3357088416476097 | True | play | NO | public | 1671943010911 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to NO, unless someone provides me with a bribe of at least M$200 to resolve it to YES. If such a bribe is offered, I will also consider larger bribes to resolve it to NO instead.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672473851845 | 250 | IsaacKing | 1672351628395 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671943011214}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1672351628209 | 1672018081724 | 0.45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8660168062934868 | VVNevKym3JHF4R84pbHn | {"NO": 1903.4072258745007, "YES": 532.6558608726788} | 1 | will-i-wish-you-a-merry-christmas | 2248.5540960185062 | Will I wish you a Merry Christmas? | 1672117140000 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3432498120263103 | True | play | YES | public | 1671943170271 | Ammon Lam | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Merry Christmas Manifolders!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to Yes if anyone received my Christmas wish.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672166224107 | 690 | AmmonLam | 1673759363256 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 3 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 33 | [{"name": "Christmas", "slug": "christmas", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "09Mvc5gSTwr2TRn2BV28", "createdTime": 1671943170466}] | ["christmas"] | 0.5 | 1672115971231 | 1673759359343 | 0.96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4110461756273078 | n9BTD5r40eyHNHcCeKr3 | {"NO": 398.8690539810728, "YES": 177.98134353298104} | 1 | will-anyone-publically-bribe-me-to | 999.376023524615 | Will anyone publicly bribe me to resolve this market to YES? | 1672473600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3013097625479098 | True | play | YES | public | 1671943419078 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to NO, unless someone provides me with a bribe of at least M$200 to resolve it to YES. If such a bribe is offered, I will also consider larger bribes to resolve it to NO instead.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672473699896 | 290 | IsaacKing | 1672489727587 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671943419420}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1672473555775 | 1672489726188 | 0.61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2868589295453392 | VnHvLufFnHUU7syFXF7H | {"NO": 690.0715088613499, "YES": 8975.062909083532} | 0 | will-destiny-mention-this-market-on | 23021.288646152527 | Will Destiny mention this market on stream by the end of 2023? | 1704096000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3608814031270273 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671943829754 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be this specific market, not Manifold Markets in general.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704144191483 | 1515.5 | IsaacKing | 1704144192318 | 0 | 2 | 119 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1671943830150}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703119314199}, {"name": "Barcalona"... | ["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"] | 0.5 | 1704001059003 | 1676670926649 | 0.03 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8297108964925364 | e9v7ZoK1RZKhDzsPcpU0 | {"NO": 2818.260005542465, "YES": 117.2730315078534} | 1 | will-slovenia-win-a-seat-on-the-un | 2576.002036865744 | Will Slovenia win a seat on the UN Security Council in 2023? | 1688187540000 | kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.663218558294353 | True | play | YES | public | 1671944406223 | Yona | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 5 UN Security Council seats up for election in 2023. Slovenia is contesting the seat allocated to the Eastern European Group, against Belarus. They are endorsed by the US.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688187641967 | 310 | xyz | 1688186835927 | 1.6 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1671944406544}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1671944469978}] | ["world-default", "elections-world"] | 0.11638534551133851 | 0.5 | 1688186835773 | 1688155417161 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4719053964762662 | ITtYuTi6o6S6nei1cI8k | {"NO": 916.5200403380892, "YES": 1056.590590402337} | 0.4366631832417391 | do-i-turn-a-profit-on-nonsilly-mark | 354.4248451637493 | Do I turn a profit on non-silly markets? | 1735718400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.672549100772377 | False | basic | public | 1671944889794 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hopefully Manifold impliments some way for me to check my overall profit minus a few markets of my choice. If I ignore all markets that I manipulated or otherwise went to great lengths to turn a profit, will I still have positive profit on the rest... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1704213769707 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1671944890658}] | ["finance"] | 0.5 | 1704213769586 | 1681283318400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JP8d5AlmX9SCtIXDFzG7 | where-will-gta-6-be-set | 723.6300179000208 | Where will GTA 6 be set? | 29348025180000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1671945235206 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2900-01-01 12:13 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.26699029956414544, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1719133234122 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f6d0b1320a9a", "prob": 0.07705462945958563, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.780623014394816, "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 308.7952901423415, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JP8d5AlmX9SCtIXDFzG7", "createdTime": 1671945236105, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9272270805... | 2 | 5 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1671945236004}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime... | ["entertainment", "ancient-markets"] | 1719133231023 | 1713854149865 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | gfxDt1Xlr4gcwKUs8Upw | {"NO": 50, "YES": 50} | 0.5 | will-lula-be-sworn-in-on-jan-1-with | 0 | Will Lula be sworn in on Jan 1 without any issues? | 1671945581283 | kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.3944491546724365 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671945449845 | Yona | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Issues include violence, major events cancelled, etc.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671945581283 | 50 | xyz | 1671945449845 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1671945450671}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2683860205384767 | MW3kB4kCWmMXLttv4l5S | {"NO": 673.1817576599769, "YES": 34722.12142442622} | 0 | will-ukraine-win-eurovision-2023 | 49342.32339309929 | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2023? 🇺🇦 | 1684021127484 | kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.5199740889315141 | True | basic | NO | public | 1671946401439 | Yona | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Ukraine does not participate, N/A if the contest ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684021127484 | 1970 | xyz | 1684021078133 | 0 | 3 | 137 | 0 | 78 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1671949368559}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 16719... | ["ukraine", "culture-default", "entertainment", "eurovision-2023", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1684021078010 | 1683864774063 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9578278273713448 | KfDBZknbHwue1rWDZqyy | {"NO": 622.6997253692911, "YES": 221.72280337474987} | 0.9845647210620253 | this-market-resolves-yes-unless-it | 3119.2609791508485 | This market resolves YES, unless it gets fewer than 20 traders, in which case it resolves N/A. | 1672559940000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.982690049548204 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1671946474979 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Binary markets are cheap, but numeric markets are quite expensive to make, so I tend to shy away from them. I'm wondering whether a \"this market is cancelled if I don't get enough traders\" clause will be self-defeating and make people less likely... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672608933365 | 270 | IsaacKing | 1672610705389 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1671946475256}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1672557833346 | 1672610703370 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.27276693990951045 | WFSNAbYz2W7V9i4SHfwy | {"NO": 1391.8456446433531, "YES": 380.83952000400586} | 0.5781975692704003 | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres-5eea5ff9aa80 | 16227.585302025147 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election? | 1735718400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0.04837522954881152 | 9.514656827160573 | False | basic | public | 1671947243629 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this market gets fewer than 30 traders, it resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves as per the title.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an experiment to see whether a \"this market is can... | BINARY | {"day": 0.05819756927040032, "week": 0.05819756927040032, "month": 0.0828587107059528} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 25.13274512454328, "platformFee": 1.7833812539799458, "liquidityFee": 0} | 100 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1720213905186 | 1.1 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1671947249896}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1693777363307}] | ["2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland"] | 0.1531894413075198 | 0.5 | 1720213901949 | 1705164763946 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.70938477695261 | j4XjZGOjZCKWYxsm6ve2 | {"NO": 11489.274634479803, "YES": 355.585422078959} | 1 | will-sam-bankmanfried-receive-a-sen | 35126.57165909422 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a sentence of over 19 years? | 1711651446183 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | cpmm-1 | 0.011510781934798769 | 0.8160339043543061 | True | basic | YES | public | 1671948926113 | Ernie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2025-12-25 11:00 am", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1711651446183 | 1010 | Ernie | 1711651446183 | 1.1 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 25 | [{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1671948926421}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 16723... | ["finance", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf-trial", "sbf-trial-sentence"] | 0.1395575620598158 | 0.5 | 1711648813230 | 1711643389876 | 0.99 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 |
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