CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.4563533237237055

wlruE4x1inNMYvxBKj3e

{"NO": 258.3349371300241, "YES": 24.094899282898993}

1

will-i-miss-a-trash-day-in-january

956.1150833874607

Will I miss a trash day in January 2023?

1675229208432

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

3.731923947631979

True

play

YES

public

1672352020570

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I want to own the responsibility in my apartment of being the one to ensure that any full trash cans are taken out on trash day. I live with 4 roommates, so there is a decent amount of trash and several bins. I unfortunately don't have a great reco...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675229208432

110

CarsonGale

1675229187464

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

0

5

0

https://firebasestorage.…cc9-9e8885696477

5

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672352020836}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1675229187269

0.9

0.5722184455424905

4yfuaDvF4rsFUUJIWQ7i

{"NO": 1199.6370268577518, "YES": 328.20649175158314}

1

will-i-stop-creating-intentionally

1815.2021465458633

Will I stop creating intentionally controversial markets by the end of February?

1677657600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0.7616472704937509

True

play

YES

public

1672352891610

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "few", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-jews-make-up-the-holocaust-and", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of my ", "type": "text"}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677692045065

590

IsaacKing

1677692041837

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

30

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…e42-36e60052dc99

24

[{"name": "Change My Mind", "slug": "change-my-mind", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "kzzraVgQ4jzw7XmLUZDv", "createdTime": 1672352892129}]

["change-my-mind"]

0.5

1677657010051

1677692037641

0.83

0.3884279107943233

IUxWz47I0C9xJ2reMM1j

{"NO": 67.0081160960595, "YES": 2085.3850707735974}

0

by-the-end-of-2023-will-any-correct

2025.5408614607506

By the end of 2023, will any correctly-resolved market have an "incorrectly resolved" warning displayed next to it?

1704096000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.4269895283744938

True

play

NO

public

1672353033017

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't know whether market creators can get the \"untrustworthy\" badge without any of their markets being marked as such, but if so, I'd also count that.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145710524

270

IsaacKing

1704145710845

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

14

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…613-6006b443dd38

5

[{"name": "Meta-markets on improper resolution", "slug": "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "jwv3Gi8dUGyA7coNlK2g", "createdTime": 1672353033284}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "...

["metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]

0.5

1704092735171

1703568860956

0.02

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

0.7251107423317245

lTtSs2ddfKgwRRdoxNJI

{"NO": 1167.5050685427314, "YES": 920.7833519214286}

0.7698307234402026

will-selzer-outpredict-fivethirtyei

481.41793489111785

Will Selzer out-predict FiveThirtyEight in the 2024 Iowa presidential election?

1731715140000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

9.610509180356514

False

basic

public

1672353422806

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the final Selzer & Co poll of the 2024 presidential general election in Iowa is closer to the actual result than the final FiveThirtyEight forecast (which will presumably factor in the Selzer poll). Resolves NO if FiveThirtyEight is...

BINARY

{"day": -8.881784197001252e-16, "week": -8.881784197001252e-16, "month": -8.881784197001252e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Conflux

1711665765800

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…b6c-46c5aa9d5ddb

6

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1672353434043}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "cre...

["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "predictions-on-predictions", "fivethirtyeight"]

0.5

1711665762449

1705331414452

0.802733386390946

XXd74uqbTGvHI01yHEgp

{"NO": 1096.7270871191613, "YES": 961.3265884420557}

0.822771390684309

will-the-us-be-a-democracy-in-2040

411.7754449648916

Will the US be a democracy in 2040?

2240697540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.708445135094587

False

basic

public

1672353702021

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As classified by their polity score ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#...

BINARY

{"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DismalScientist

1708446271149

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

2

15

0

https://firebasestorage.…a80-34de98d10ea7

10

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672353702811}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866873}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1708291223601

1708446270718

False

0.8616300765293788

T3cYP5HfrMVw3giApRaL

{"NO": 670.2856877960963, "YES": 1042.8059159931236}

0.8001015221473703

will-the-us-be-a-democracy-in-2035

585.8743730475635

Will the US be a democracy in 2035?

2240697540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.879593261256154

False

basic

public

1672353772508

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As classified by their polity score ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.0881005875989973, "month": -0.08810058759899675}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.623177975416563, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DismalScientist

1719905405891

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

1

17

1

https://firebasestorage.…d2a-12d0c8dd7e80

15

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672353773086}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181866779}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1719905402808

1682219871440

False

0.6047074162377443

X6gcOCLfY5rC4xnvvytT

{"NO": 920.9837765915223, "YES": 1044.147481740842}

0.5743459331493187

will-givewell-research-eradicating

768.7765971844825

Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?

1830297540000

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

9.67429333085067

False

basic

public

1672354118766

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Editing the genes of mosquitoes could make them immune to malaria or infertile. However, there are worries about the unintended consequences of releasing genetically-modified mosquitoes into the wild.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.1461495353951164, "platformFee": 0.1461495353951164, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DismalScientist

1714599176659

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

23

0

https://firebasestorage.…97a-86afbc68435c

13

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1672354119538}, {"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 16723556594...

["science-default", "effective-altruism", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1714599173334

1692667382675

0.26041016512681553

snMThHZFcjDr0lgVNdZE

{"NO": 412.97391060560534, "YES": 2232.9766102867925}

0

will-twitter-suffer-a-major-outage-acf17815a3c6

2546.105237864797

Will Twitter suffer a major outage before the end of Jan 2023?

1675209540000

jaZO796uPBTFgSA4VwwKK7XuVcI2

cpmm-1

0

0.8919233833525759

True

play

NO

public

1672354345641

Gene Fama

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if there's more than 1 hour of a major outage (Twitter's webiste has to be down and users unable to Tweet for that to be considered an outage.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675706665641

750

GeneFama

1675094255964

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1GEeRbwZqE7UHQDOFTfeRDZLPJwUA9z6BKLDT-=s96-c

2

37

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…2ad-e4c6376a826a

35

[]

0.5

1675094255797

1674575358754

0.06

0.415454731797854

qD82CKPCfnWMx4wld1tA

{"NO": 71.08040706203225, "YES": 119.99999999999999}

1

will-a-new-treatment-for-alzheimers

30

Will a new treatment for Alzheimer's be approved by the FDA in 2023?

1673139824852

St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2

cpmm-1

0

3.151057474370155

True

play

YES

public

1672354562808

DismalScientist

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The FDA approved one in 2022 for the first time since 2003.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673139824852

90

DismalScientist

1673139815873

0

https://firebasestorage.…b16-0ce5136b681e

2

0

https://firebasestorage.…c63-0440801d055f

3

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1672354563587}]

["medicine"]

0.5

1672769713821

1673139814074

0.3

0.8859563756820609

GhfHiqkqeuVCIIMaDfLD

{"NO": 563.3371397524685, "YES": 180.9079016613067}

1

will-isaacking-tone-it-down-or-get

1768.9967186792408

Will @IsaacKing tone it down or get banned?

1680321540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

4.04295207833034

True

play

YES

public

1672355243677

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "label": "IsaacKing"}}, {"text": " goes at least a week without creating any controversial markets (see examples below) before end of March 2023...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681016501759

230

Jenny

1680303710862

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

0

10

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…a9f-a22ac7dbcd6b

8

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1672355243928}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1680303710750

1672810000806

0.96

0.8953104593451553

FNi31FLp053gHYHowWHZ

{"NO": 2938.7931574687063, "YES": 1071.9086442088546}

1

will-kanye-west-make-any-appearance

10247.12266540205

Will Kanye West make any appearance in public before Jan 15, 2023?

1673845140000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-1

0

0.8893493994575339

True

basic

YES

public

1672355391141

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kanye West missing? Ex-business manager can’t find rapper to serve him lawsuit", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.distractify.com/p/is-kanye-west-missing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673895133607

1390

AmmonLam

1673894485311

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

70

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-af55fb8c46be

58

[{"name": "Kanye", "slug": "kanye", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "LIVuozNRWEB0iKRb4omD", "createdTime": 1672355398215}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672355412965}]

["kanye", "entertainment"]

0.5

1673845053857

1673894481763

0.96

0.8885029455397829

gNMaAJB0AFgCKA5R5L5i

{"NO": 1681.7006890692958, "YES": 236.18520618301997}

1

will-kanye-west-make-any-appearance-6cdba0cd0416

15061.15909470908

Will Kanye West make any appearance in public before Jan 30, 2023?

1675141140000

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

cpmm-1

0

2.3658702378537297

True

play

YES

public

1672355442080

Ammon Lam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kanye West missing? Ex-business manager can’t find rapper to serve him lawsuit", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.distractify.com/p/is-kanye-west-missing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675179850570

490

AmmonLam

1675135285343

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

23

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…3ee-4f1b62648b2d

19

[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672355442330}]

["entertainment"]

0.5

1675135285229

1674128158596

0.98

0.4060546246687602

m5MyQnWPhPx0JxTHhcMC

{"NO": 11833.798272017333, "YES": 8.555230326977835}

1

will-i-make-a-profit-of-m5000-from

19602.057736873867

Will I make a profit of >Ṁ5000 from any single market in 2023?

1703046942428

H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2

cpmm-1

0

2.719125800233416

True

play

YES

public

1672355948245

Andrew G

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently my greatest profit is Ṁ919.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703046942428

710

AndrewG

1703051796397

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c

40

0

https://firebasestorage.…112-6c3a3b2c5456

6

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1672355948545}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.10854552146930986

0.5

1703046899477

1703051795672

1

H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2

0.5210351238051278

rtQ110RxKCvepDvtiXP9

{"NO": 111.86237522382633, "YES": 31.24817844826722}

1

will-someone-find-the-prime-factori-9a30a6dbeee

90.48997078634025

Will someone find the prime factorization of 765070822189407834410759531694860629134053054021036715440617 (60 digits) in a week?

1672358049137

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

4.222080349150787

True

play

YES

public

1672356297697

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if someone found the prime factorization and typed it out in the comment, like in Ammon's markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672358049137

110

BoltonBailey

1672358701174

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

1

3

0

https://firebasestorage.…345-ceaecd4f921b

4

[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672356306223}]

["mathematics"]

0.5

1672357352987

1672358699208

0.5

0.07317382431636275

lhvyuOm5DsFk9JKeGnKK

{"NO": 203.31134869823444, "YES": 583.544844675723}

0

will-pope-emeritus-benedict-survive

20838.702219921546

Will Pope Emeritus Benedict survive to 2023?

1672505879402

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

5.637385285377309

True

basic

NO

public

1672356565909

Scott Lawrence

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Benedict is alive when 2023 begins (according to his timezone). Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.npr.org/2022/12/29/1145997483/benedict-xvi-health-vatican", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"hre...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672505879402

1510

ScottLawrence

1672505381066

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

1

75

0

https://firebasestorage.…2f6-7049e626c443

60

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1672356566219}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1672828978948}]

["world-default", "religion"]

0.5

1672505380923

1672504184577

0.03

0.09727941346322065

HOIXQyvHnMvPB8epb5IS

{"NO": 881.5909830226723, "YES": 1925.0859955528322}

0.04702884955663589

will-the-lds-church-mormons-allow-f

1716.8015688703708

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2030?

1925009940000

glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2

cpmm-1

0

10.321318478579519

False

basic

public

1672356704218

Nuanced Mormon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints currently do not allow gay couples to be married in their temple. Will this policy be change over the next couple of years?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "R...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0027106777681227545}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.33738354559396105, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

nuancedmormon

1718343716743

0

https://firebasestorage.…b5b-8004ffe10d1b

2

19

0

https://firebasestorage.…4c7-232742a78cf9

11

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672356705218}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1672360333950}]

["us-politics", "mormonism"]

0.5

1718343713688

1704492607786

0.44590742253736365

7bGmK0Gd5R7vhDCsE2KD

{"NO": 81.44213881490577, "YES": 91527.91441442017}

0

will-there-be-a-recession-in-2023

106443.82100994344

Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?

1703985095307

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

cpmm-1

0.0735337803402076

-0.15198640612791614

True

basic

NO

public

1672356874178

Marcus Abramovitch

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recession =2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Not going to entertain any nonsense about that not being the definition anymore.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 31, 3:17am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703985095307

1930

MarcusAbramovitch

1703985096767

1.4

https://firebasestorage.…9a5-f31d5ed47031

6

123

0

https://firebasestorage.…0bc-9cb0eab2249a

47

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672356875403}, {"name": "Nathan's Dashboard", "slug": "nathans-dashboard", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "g4G6yDkp0vg1tQ6CLAoo", "createdTime": 16727651...

["economics-default", "nathans-dashboard", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17547069088587483

0.5

1703985053958

1703985088162

0

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.11570735594230055

fkBsnKughond3sHIXFsr

{"NO": 322.9297601919784, "YES": 624.0510517931579}

0.04

what-percentage-of-manifold-users-a

1700.15809565446

What percentage of Manifold users are part of the alt-right?

1675227600000

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

cpmm-1

0

2.4995738536070435

True

play

MKT

public

1672358103706

arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://strawpoll.com/embed/polls/PbZqolQjAnN", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves PROB to the number of people in the above poll who select option 1 (\"I know what the alt-right political mov...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675228404189

370

a

1675051313471

0

https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650

18

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…cd1-405488e14847

17

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672358104362}, {"name": "Polls", "slug": "polls", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "N7J0kSf7abktEXCnPP9V", "createdTime": 1672358129637}]

["politics-default", "polls"]

0.5

1675051313339

1672371764896

0.04

0.2846717719339465

xSf5VutoJ2akauKeYcMW

{"NO": 164.4054870369498, "YES": 241.34435795768164}

0.213275463314917

what-fraction-of-manifold-users-who

383.36279927374795

What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?

1735718400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672358424682

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the election, I will poll Manifold users to ask how they voted (the same poll as used for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/how-will-ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.06327546331491712}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9232266748590814, "platformFee": 0.8362717594617055, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

190

IsaacKing

1717956610755

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

11

0

https://firebasestorage.…caa-75eb8d6a6be1

5

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672358425048}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181868629}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "us-politics"]

0.5

1717956607625

1716131874823

False

0.40787199776077077

YUGCZQ5OdYrT2xi4lfaK

{"NO": 261.6796271028445, "YES": 3597.3936483130287}

0

will-someone-find-the-prime-factori-f081a7336797

9805.230356218708

Will someone find the prime factorization of a 250-digit random number in a week?

1672991940000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

0.8397840878826899

True

basic

NO

public

1672358974029

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unlike the other prime factorization markets, which have been for semiprimes, this market will be for a completely random 250-digit natural number, to be chosen by me using the Manifold built-in random number generator (or if that doesn't work, ran...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672999520065

1030

BoltonBailey

1672991129623

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

3

51

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…f79-e03df8c99ce0

46

[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672358974218}, {"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1672359312218}]

["mathematics", "fairlyrandom"]

0.5

1672991129490

1672582093627

0.05

0.10620412783729115

bhIPCnx1V8uO3z0c1t05

{"NO": 865.7704640862817, "YES": 2148.643959232268}

0.04569097164531709

will-the-lds-church-mormons-lose-it

3254.4471719946523

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2025?

1767243540000

glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2

cpmm-1

0

10.269598275252502

False

basic

public

1672359525664

Nuanced Mormon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has over $100 billion in investment reserves. Some criticize the church for amassing so much investment and not spending it on charity. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "week": -2.0816681711721685e-17, "month": -2.0816681711721685e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

nuancedmormon

1701731253528

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…b5b-8004ffe10d1b

24

0

https://firebasestorage.…4b2-024498726bcd

17

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672359526008}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1672360740038}]

["us-politics", "mormonism"]

0.11547721699183128

0.5

1701731253407

1672521793112

0.18687884707631905

8yUeLcKSdcWogDMJi7VZ

{"NO": 183.94445742770017, "YES": 257.6906923331931}

0.14093500739028023

sbf-serves-time-in-federal-supermax

204.309307666807

SBF serves time in Federal Supermax prison before 2030

1893455940000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672359794354

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is incarcerated in a high-security federal prison before 2030.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data to come from a reputable news source or press release f...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

210

HarrisonLucas

1690598651327

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…888-574844723d17

7

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672359795216}, {"name": "FTX Insolvency Crisis", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime...

["us-politics", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf-trial"]

0.5

1690598651214

1672595875399

0.17518566271085245

iSIwpuZNOhsX4n83uvVT

{"NO": 189.12341102529345, "YES": 418.9897141027094}

0.08748329154471798

is-joseph-smiths-translation-of-the

1418.2343019019704

Is Joseph Smith's translation of the Book of Abraham's facsimile 1,2 and 3 from Egyptian to English correct?

1704085140000

glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2

cpmm-1

0

0.40703202444856856

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672360148420

Nuanced Mormon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to market price at market closing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705067237441

250

nuancedmormon

1705067237674

0

https://firebasestorage.…b5b-8004ffe10d1b

12

0

3

https://firebasestorage.…088-594cd661458a

5

[{"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1672360148592}, {"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1672362119781}, {"name":...

["mormonism", "selfresolving", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "whale-watching", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.5

False

1701645899720

1705067232453

0.09

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.11258457120488523

aWxIpzDulg27wa6yxeYx

{"NO": 419.9618874571284, "YES": 3185.0993296312085}

0

will-the-lds-church-mormons-get-a-n

3469.193231945509

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) get a new prophet (president of the church) before June 2023?

1685678340000

glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2

cpmm-1

0

1.9320007300437254

True

play

NO

public

1672360306313

Nuanced Mormon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current prophet and president of the church is Russell M Nelson, at age 98.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints get a new prop...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1686596185121

570

nuancedmormon

1685723251019

0

https://firebasestorage.…b5b-8004ffe10d1b

29

0

3

https://firebasestorage.…6a3-69368f5148d4

5

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672360306764}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1672360740039}]

["us-politics", "mormonism"]

0.5

1685670557235

1685723249053

0.02

0.2121025252363977

MMM1XwFpJoHrTAv80jkT

{"NO": 140.78862622374155, "YES": 19614.461842971024}

0

will-the-lds-church-mormons-get-a-n-86f617628445

23079.45314926277

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) get a new prophet (president of the church) before Dec 2023?

1701493140000

glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2

cpmm-1

0

0.6981849745899016

True

play

NO

public

1672360321596

Nuanced Mormon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current prophet and president of the church is Russell M Nelson, at age 98.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve to Yes if the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints get a new prop...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701645391569

530

nuancedmormon

1701452730917

0

https://firebasestorage.…b5b-8004ffe10d1b

3

31

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…115-c7e98b987c9b

8

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672360321994}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1672360740039}]

["us-politics", "mormonism"]

0.09671511248853729

0.5

1701452730774

1701444502338

0

0.18419287286041958

KsABehpaVCHttbVUEfPx

{"NO": 271.4337568924335, "YES": 2478.4360770556073}

0

will-someone-find-the-prime-factori-16995df7a686

4151.584862904038

Will someone find the prime factorization of a 1000-digit random number in a week?

1672991940000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

1.751333818329016

True

play

NO

public

1672361770816

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unlike the other prime factorization markets, which have been for semiprimes, this market will be for a completely random 1000-digit natural number, to be chosen by me using random.org one day after this market goes live.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672999501435

450

BoltonBailey

1672973164903

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

2

21

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…29c-0e16f23f676f

22

[{"name": "FairlyRandom", "slug": "fairlyrandom", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "J8Z1KAZV31icklA4tgJW", "createdTime": 1672361771000}]

["fairlyrandom"]

0.5

1672973164729

1672535503469

0.02

0.1445233173571488

pfy6Dp5ACKb0MUbnIWwv

{"NO": 615.84227207716, "YES": 7245.443762661612}

0

will-the-greta-thunberg-video-turn

9500.945003189754

Will the Greta Thunberg video turn out to actually have been a significant factor in Andrew Tate's arrest

1672991940000

4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2

cpmm-1

0

1.0571628833814581

True

play

NO

public

1672364931118

VivaLaPanda

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's a popular tweet right now claiming that a big factor in the Romanian govt arresting Andrew Tate when they did was the video he made responding to Greta Thunberg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t16085863088...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673027032432

930

VivaLaPanda

1672957517443

0

https://firebasestorage.…e16-276f17b9c90e

1

47

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…dcd-ddc7379d89f6

39

[{"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1672364931341}]

["crime"]

0.5

1672957517290

1672794171227

0.01

0.045634186796606566

xJ8C3R4n08j8c6Vp4Kuk

{"NO": 952.1235815422127, "YES": 1366.1588219797259}

0.03225007427876935

will-any-manifold-user-with-a-trust

1140.8681925174585

Will any Manifold User with a trustworthyish badge be charged with murder by 2030?

1893484800000

qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1672365010987

M.H.

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current or former. Includes future equivalents.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by Isaac King's market.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MilfordHammerschmidt

1702594140048

0

https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f

10

0

https://firebasestorage.…09e-0f6b93e531f8

8

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672365011756}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1702594139929

1692335119402

0.5007222935886928

hIwLXr6P9Uf5utIuDYGd

{"NO": 54.955564333019694, "YES": 47.251860629316}

0.538404726735598

will-nuanced-mormons-market-about-t

4

Will Nuanced Mormon's market about the book of Abraham be resolved correctly?

1672367381265

qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1

cpmm-1

0

4.346829867865628

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672365055524

Elspeth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market. Resolves to n/a if the referrenced market resolves to n/a. If it resolves to a probability, this market will resolve to the probability that it resolves correctly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"sr...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672367381265

70

Elspeth

1672366669987

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c

1

0

https://firebasestorage.…d0c-f8db6cf85ba5

2

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672365055889}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672366669828

0.54

0.6955667544081279

8gGwmSz0n42OgiGRkyKd

{"NO": 1234.9840019603514, "YES": 850.3348877332028}

0.768428384140147

will-andrew-tate-spend-more-than-1

2991.393516903802

Will Andrew Tate spend more than 1 year in prison before 2027?

1798761540000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

9.662630649433602

False

basic

public

1672365349274

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yet another prison market because prominent figures can't help but keep getting themselves arrested.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.5415379812621084, "platformFee": 2.056681848816485, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GeorgeVii

1717523865682

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

31

0

https://firebasestorage.…6fd-db80a5b5dae8

18

[{"name": "Prison Markets", "slug": "prison-markets", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "ybPe7R5zhvOzOIs3n3yM", "createdTime": 1672365469079}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1672365474790}]

["prison-markets", "crime"]

0.11426737768192827

0.5

1717523862561

0.5144676883655608

oENXbZwrwvfaMCEdPcFY

{"NO": 39.13411736951923, "YES": 1653.7776231313408}

0

will-i-consider-manifolds-reported

2138.388899827743

Will I trust Manifold's reported user profit totals and leaderboard rankings by the end of 2023?

1704067140000

qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1

cpmm-1

0

2.5864646333010497

True

play

NO

public

1672366606718

M.H.

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704126347516

290

MilfordHammerschmidt

1704126347965

0

https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f

17

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…d41-dd9e12d16776

6

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672366607629}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1701141098588}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704062632972

1704062589804

0.02

qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1

0.499999999999994

f33DAVsNVeTwS1aau49K

{"NO": 444.9489742783261, "YES": 5.618621784789866}

1

will-dan-misspeak-during-the-call

1808.7241425100256

Will Dan Misspeak during the call?

1672367047939

JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2

cpmm-1

0

6.272961705262001

True

play

YES

public

1672366987917

PryingMind

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672367047939

210

PryingMind

1672367042168

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…899-1985cabd92bf

9

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672366988775}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1672367042050

0.5

0.4999999999999994

y3ooexBMps3WiyGz3Tqg

{"NO": 8.906018933847278, "YES": 280.7090371769609}

0

will-dan-misspeak-during-the-call-f

1121.798522469177

Will Dan Misspeak during the call? for real

1672367416190

JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2

cpmm-1

0

5.6169493785227615

True

play

NO

public

1672367100198

PryingMind

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672367416190

290

PryingMind

1672367477323

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…4fe-c29f5b8a2a7f

12

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672367100828}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1672367411378

1672367476356

0.77

0.37394162040346296

ZEWgtX0jCkwURgoVUxgm

{"NO": 100.96395867184312, "YES": 185}

0

will-i-think-that-joseph-smiths-tra

55

Will I think that Joseph Smith's translation of the Book of Abraham's facsimile 1,2 and 3 from Egyptian to English is correct?

1674968340000

glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2

cpmm-1

0

2.531071883739346

True

play

NO

public

1672367308912

Nuanced Mormon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everyone is welcomed to show me evidence for or against the matter in the comments. After carefully reviewing all the evidence and arguments presented in the comments I will resolve the question according to my judgement. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681065898559

130

nuancedmormon

1674923542273

0

https://firebasestorage.…b5b-8004ffe10d1b

4

0

15

https://firebasestorage.…602-bff1d1f29562

7

[{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1674391762775}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1674391771247}]

["religion", "mormonism"]

0.5

1674923542157

1672369747655

0.25

0.2288565918348407

r46Wzq0br1QX1iSl32g6

{"NO": 953.5734813455631, "YES": 1111.6792423278496}

0.2029125524819717

will-vitalik-buterin-or-the-ethereu

248.83823943694134

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

1924991940000

qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1

cpmm-1

0

9.643149832381003

False

basic

public

1672368299111

M.H.

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The SEC seems to be charging every crypto project ever launched with this recently, independent of whether or not they actually defrauded anybody, and leaning toward either crypto projects big enough to make headlines (Ripple) or projects SEC AUSAs...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MilfordHammerschmidt

1710961539690

0

https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f

2

11

0

https://firebasestorage.…e1d-b499b41347ca

5

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672368299917}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1710961536113

1701083275830

0.2917513385126425

GrQn5yCsBdiH6sxR8Y3X

{"NO": 274.6474729500061, "YES": 6837.099403058003}

0

will-greg-abbott-seek-the-gop-nomin

26105.17363090499

Will Greg Abbott seek the GOP nomination for president in 2024?

1705547789920

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0.24858264836325725

1.0847542052165249

True

play

NO

public

1672369357003

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if he announces and files necessary paperwork with the FEC.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705547789920

770

BTE

1705547790833

1.4

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

44

0

https://firebasestorage.…1f9-e2a57244c713

14

[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1672379365888}, {"name": "2024 GOP Primaries", "slug": "2024-gop-primaries", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "mwL1bEUy5R4Qt...

["2024-gop-primaries", "2024-us-presidential-election", "arbbot-inbox"]

0.1799482732793633

0.5

1705542022096

1705542007377

0.02

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

0.1411157350282351

7xSHhPLIdZRrsfBeFwuk

{"NO": 881.9211327036774, "YES": 1666.7917252465027}

0.07998086038400751

will-manifold-be-banned-from-the-ap

1428.8495350372177

Will Manifold be banned from the Apple app store by the end of 2024?

1735718400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.988346076656358

False

basic

public

1672369872839

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this comment", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-jews-make-up-the-holocaust-and#hyg3dT5tVyD6sBeKEaPb", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1712263581686

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

31

0

https://firebasestorage.…58b-ae32baf34ebe

21

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672369873277}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1712263578431

1676671176630

0.5689091775638615

G6Lj2ccHZyp8aHzwVchb

{"NO": 3321.9577531673494, "YES": 4004.012408781925}

0.5226493250568754

will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of

2220266.090421775

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?

1924988340000

lQdCwuc1OrZLUqgA4EwjPSSwG5Z2

cpmm-1

0.40256250036468266

0.8401246347258116

False

basic

public

1672370177120

memestiny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The \"exploitation purposes\" prerequisite needs to (more or less) be ruled to relate to the sex wo...

BINARY

{"day": -0.0017075974890873313, "week": 0.002583001162280052, "month": 0.012649325056875549}

0

{"creatorFee": 1038.2849748623184, "platformFee": 579.397142111773, "liquidityFee": 0}

396.2317317078968

3910

memestiny

1720209450183

13.2

https://firebasestorage.…032-b5e261dd6a1e

45

2797

8

https://firebasestorage.…012-d3d5c69d93e8

1340

[{"name": "Wokism", "slug": "wokism", "userId": "tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2", "groupId": "YicUdRInQuALKH5cnCiY", "createdTime": 1673497060549}]

["wokism"]

0.5277876876262636

0.5

1720209441900

1714927748754

0.1503206351216563

azNuBClaeFlnacEp8YGR

{"NO": 424.23042216232363, "YES": 3105.712001300486}

0

will-resolvetomarket-markets-be-ban

3978.4440973134524

Will resolve-to-market markets be banned in 2023?

1704002340000

qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1

cpmm-1

0

1.4453185772859491

True

play

NO

public

1672370427980

Elspeth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704011413049

610

Elspeth

1704011413445

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c

2

29

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…dd3-ee9ee3db5cb9

8

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672370428610}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "c...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703931486500

1683162359251

0.02

qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1

0.5

2fHPp3miewQmxz4ODMWX

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0

how-about-no

4001

how about no

1672370772261

yeBYDcwEiBYB7e7btlUlGZMheG52

cpmm-1

0

4.3944491546724365

True

play

NO

public

1672370644651

Sarah Connor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-30 7:26 am", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672370783311

70

SarahConnor

1716326858955

0

https://firebasestorage.…231-f2665679ce41

2

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f4-1af89b468062

2

[{"name": "Profit Transfer", "slug": "profit-transfer", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "5aXdQmYD2eSJERA3pgJL", "createdTime": 1682509104487}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1716326858955}]

["profit-transfer", "nonpredictive"]

0.5

False

1672370733997

0.5

HgGMmvRst9YGxdqNn7ax

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0

definetly-not-yes

4001

definetly not yes

1672370999539

yeBYDcwEiBYB7e7btlUlGZMheG52

cpmm-1

0

4.3944491546724365

True

play

NO

public

1672370856070

Sarah Connor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-30 7:29 am", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672371012663

70

SarahConnor

1672370950604

0

https://firebasestorage.…231-f2665679ce41

2

0

https://firebasestorage.…387-64a7905a8f26

2

0.5

1672370950314

0.5

0.4527281225722671

W77Kr7gBrrudOHcKYDct

{"NO": 260.41103659192976, "YES": 1846.5682489873955}

0

will-avraham-eisenberg-be-released

1592.7095292008444

Will Avraham Eisenberg be released on bail before January 3rd 2023?

1672732800000

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

cpmm-1

0

0.8142016337547875

True

play

NO

public

1672371902689

Matthew Barnett

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Avraham Eisenberg is a microcelebrity in crypto and prediction market circles. He was arrested on December 26th for financial crimes. More information about his alleged crime can be found in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "probable cause affidavi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672735605869

690

MatthewBarnett

1693229813067

0

https://firebasestorage.…1fb-217b30c305ec

1

9

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…7a9-d6d559995dfd

9

[{"name": "Prison Markets", "slug": "prison-markets", "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "groupId": "ybPe7R5zhvOzOIs3n3yM", "createdTime": 1672386661626}, {"name": "Honest Abe", "slug": "honest-abe", "userId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "groupId": "ciHdfDlnpGdDT3snVDGY", "createdTime": 1672386650070}, {"nam...

["us-politics", "honest-abe", "prison-markets", "crypto-speculation"]

0.5

1672696256863

1693229811643

0.1

0.9128201880521772

k3Xz22C7iId860g2Yh1Z

{"NO": 2393.8584770437956, "YES": 233.2676118217373}

1

will-he-be-back-within-2-hours

4079.8874999710515

Will he be back within 2 hours ( 11:53 CST )

1672378277038

JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2

cpmm-1

0

4.137058814150704

True

play

YES

public

1672372324577

PryingMind

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 29, 9:54pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will he be back within 2 hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will he be back within 2 hours ( 11:53 CST ) ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672378277038

430

PryingMind

1672378245872

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3_6Qwjb0VcwEHtUmAtmXb4AjEbbdUJBbSiBWwE=s96-c

19

0

https://firebasestorage.…b58-7b60fac875db

16

0.5

1672378245769

0.43

0.5622575152561132

chfpZ2rpr5aKUiXcTeYE

{"NO": 112.5542937648232, "YES": 138.90073424671132}

0

will-i-gain-rating-in-my-next-rated

158.743040136628

Will I gain rating in my next rated Codeforces contest?

1672764671293

7hQCsEdUTWhIlDXhJp3Ln08tQjE2

cpmm-1

0

2.369560690742534

True

play

NO

public

1672372420902

Gabriel Wu

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://codeforces.com/profile/gabrielwu", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codeforces.com/profile/gabrielwu", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Codeforces is a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672764671293

130

gabrieldwu

1672782678313

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2I8CiUXuqzXWa4OkXf9tv_7uklXRxZa_YWdrBWcQ=s96-c

5

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…bd0-818df90e2f82

7

[{"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "7hQCsEdUTWhIlDXhJp3Ln08tQjE2", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1672372421791}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7hQCsEdUTWhIlDXhJp3Ln08tQjE2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1672372605285}]

["programming", "personal-goals"]

0.5

1672754962438

1672782676838

0.51

0.7225814349780422

Qx80YO3jGQhD6GGidCUC

{"NO": 3181.3296579903126, "YES": 326.3414792757086}

1

will-the-kickcom-streaming-platform

3363.833289521099

Will the kick.com streaming platform still exist in 2024?

1704088740000

kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52

cpmm-1

0

1.0063445035119623

True

play

YES

public

1672373588311

GAZE WITHIN

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There must be atleast 1 person streaming on it on 1/1/24 for me to count it as existing.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704131303700

650

destiny

1704131304190

0

https://firebasestorage.…0ce-f8fe467a3405

2

33

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…b0b-b014bf44b7a5

8

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672373588751}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132022002}]

["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11119632831685242

0.5

1704085778614

0.96

kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52

0.4158613221946785

cY9HkDTEVlzRHkwhvvWE

{"NO": 112.04097888015205, "YES": 156.4650487334033}

0.3376566471392664

will-text-written-in-the-content-bo

32

Will text written in the Content box of Posts still have different spacing than text written in comment boxes at the end of January 2023?

1675238340000

1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2

cpmm-1

0

2.3799236090971725

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672374474097

Joshua

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently it looks like this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1iQogY1P52.23?alt=media&token=cb420bd1-3189-436d-93...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675391712317

130

JoshuaB

1675391737881

0

https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd

4

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…20f-e7ff50bcc130

5

[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1672374474539}]

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1672516329839

1675391734513

0.34

0.27986485222966967

EyRNVfrCkb66HMXxg2X5

{"NO": 189.1098855731646, "YES": 1476.278583510753}

0

will-oil-prices-any-wti-future-any

2062.415102547052

Will oil prices (any WTI future - any maturity) trade above US$150 in 2023?

1704067140000

quyam6bWf9gibduNgMERpKy30bq2

cpmm-1

0

1.6077409256697723

True

play

NO

public

1672375615566

Aurelius

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if any spot or futures price (any maturity) for West Texas Intermediate crude oil trades above US$150/bbl at any time in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704152290139

350

Aurelius

1704152290289

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqSfG0q6e2djQsJxxoRjNCKJ9ydDWRalFib_d5ZAw=s96-c

1

17

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…79f-1b4596fc0789

10

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "quyam6bWf9gibduNgMERpKy30bq2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1672375616441}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129873810}]

["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1702998040675

1704152286820

0.05

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.3730592967663394

IIsgmsFA0ZpipR9NcNro

{"NO": 96.82189404991948, "YES": 1666.2923102030559}

0

will-at-least-two-of-these-past-ant

2378.0424338130697

Will at least TWO of these past antagonists make another appearance on Destiny's stream in 2023?

1704088740000

5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1

cpmm-1

0

1.994606232026153

True

play

NO

public

1672375654957

Daliban Adjacent

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They need to actually join a Discord/zoom/etc call and talk to Destiny, not just Destiny reacting to a clip of them or fighting back and forth via clips or Tweets, even if the Tweets are read on stream. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704339671251

310

DalibanAdjacent

1704339671407

0

https://firebasestorage.…61d-e32f4a60b06d

2

17

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…70d-719637dabe14

1

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672375655383}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129269882}]

["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.09579112760513037

0.5

1704064265596

1704339665304

0.03

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.524158909588768

S2nlPtWWBMT3wDy6L56Y

{"NO": 175.7814568746656, "YES": 16889.180096526583}

0

will-keffals-publicly-apologize-to

137244.63452371518

Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?

1688187660000

5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1

cpmm-1

0

0.8716253067679056

True

basic

NO

public

1672376484086

Daliban Adjacent

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has issued a cease and desist to Keffals demanding that she retracts defamatory statements she made. He has confirmed that Keffals and seen it, and he is still awaiting her response.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "par...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688744830593

1990

DalibanAdjacent

1710218142761

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…61d-e32f4a60b06d

7

454

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…35f-316586dac0f9

322

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]

["destinygg"]

0.2084323699765065

0.5

1688165822832

1688744840508

0.01

0.7330442783981596

EM3KjBxsFPS8LcUy729t

{"NO": 1201.8393389335217, "YES": 393.616865450633}

1

will-any-large-military-facility-wi

4899.213823927391

Will any large military facility within 20 miles of Moscow or St. Petersburg have an explosion or fire in 2023?

1704096000000

quyam6bWf9gibduNgMERpKy30bq2

cpmm-1

0.15375221617537554

0.9570434714601337

True

play

YES

public

1672376633195

Aurelius

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if any military facility within 20 miles of Moscow OR St. Petersburg at which over 25 military personnel are stationed either sees an explosion or a fire that causes noticeable damage at any time in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704140857213

550

Aurelius

1704140857578

2.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqSfG0q6e2djQsJxxoRjNCKJ9ydDWRalFib_d5ZAw=s96-c

1

28

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…6d4-aaf2907084d7

8

[{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "quyam6bWf9gibduNgMERpKy30bq2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1672376633387}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129838647}]

["ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.12221007208525864

0.5

1704092529235

1704140853266

0.89

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.6508224015362216

7TiDaWbVY7buyzcJbCLH

{"NO": 797.3698084320087, "YES": 253.20191087483178}

1

will-chudlogic-be-banned-on-twitch

1395.3805472257422

Will ChudLogic Be Banned on Twitch in 2023?

1676939300763

5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1

cpmm-1

1.134786149788635

True

play

YES

public

1672376730462

Daliban Adjacent

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ChudLogic's Twitch channel be banned at any point during 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A 1 day, week, month, or any other length ban including an indefinite ban will be enough to ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676939300763

390

DalibanAdjacent

1676935523604

0

https://firebasestorage.…61d-e32f4a60b06d

3

20

0

https://firebasestorage.…97e-d9e57e2d2f91

14

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672376730974}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1676935523446

1676925469808

0.85

0.713366204059009

vvROYyvwnYpb4TH69pwA

{"NO": 1351.483061331594, "YES": 2614.5633632187255}

0.5626428486758179

if-biden-wins-in-2024-will-he-serve

64256.212954337374

If Biden wins in 2024, will he serve a full second term?

1863558000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0.2818932926176887

7.624416933305074

False

basic

public

1672377206378

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if he dies, resigns, or is removed from office.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.13091097271590235, "week": -0.13735715132418214, "month": -0.17881069937900518}

0

{"creatorFee": 288.250967632446, "platformFee": 1.0489728246434058, "liquidityFee": 0}

2994.391227379391

2185

NcyRocks

1720244567457

4

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

6

309

10

https://firebasestorage.…76c-124097624494

142

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "👴🏼 Joe...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "conditional-markets"]

0.20382269090491545

0.5

1720244564387

1720240928616

0.7580436421525373

z1DzSE7fFKSMmrsHumeF

{"NO": 1088.818678287273, "YES": 960.5946764884453}

0.7802767128307859

if-trump-wins-in-2024-will-he-serve

478.48247427590815

If Trump wins in 2024, will he serve a full second term?

1863558000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.618220120432095

False

basic

public

1672377241311

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if he dies, resigns, or is removed from office.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -7.771561172376096e-16, "week": -7.771561172376096e-16, "month": -7.771561172376096e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.51388971528556, "platformFee": 0.51388971528556, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1713832971839

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

2

22

0

https://firebasestorage.…a50-8e293de45723

12

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "👴 Trump...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump"]

0.09910962147669265

0.5

1713832968484

0.7475546103252898

2Wx2ffQzuM28HjWNMcit

{"NO": 1898.380841528247, "YES": 2045.6901383593486}

0.7331920454817796

will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of-10917660fc94

52051.41362893381

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022

1830121200000

G3PAoK93N1MyKuRIM0YaIsDDaW23

cpmm-1

0.060325324596298885

6.811368210486165

False

basic

public

1672382317149

NightHawk_0

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The charges in question are: human trafficking, rape and forming an organised crime group.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/andrew-tate-detained-in-r...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.594922414097235, "platformFee": 4.159363640279238, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2045

NightHawk_0

1718679705809

2.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1OPaZ7nfuBQF7xzbcnO24QHsXXpylgRXXMCbO-=s96-c

1

123

0

https://firebasestorage.…d0f-5dbaee99f55a

64

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "G3PAoK93N1MyKuRIM0YaIsDDaW23", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1672382317442}]

["world-default"]

0.19493258049455967

0.5

1716654713139

1718679704566

0.2253023865390469

0n91tXOsYJN54DVPK7Nh

{"NO": 161.25007926817622, "YES": 2428.807727633985}

0

will-manifold-create-an-easytouse-b

2312.8421582365795

Will Manifold create an easy-to-use betting mechanism to limit-arbitrage various markets with only a few clicks by end of 2023?

1704088740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

2.193468663716617

True

play

NO

public

1672384654592

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are so many duplicative markets on Manifold - it would be great to have an arbitrage betting feature where you select the two markets and the amount of mana, and you automatically arbitrage the two markets such that the prices between the two...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704132176213

310

CarsonGale

1704132176587

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

3

16

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…43e-2c9168c6a095

7

[{"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1672384654867}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031309...

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704085026883

1685666441347

0.02

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

0.15399506621835934

yCZog61lRFbJZnz8UW76

{"NO": 283.43782811137066, "YES": 715.3781438993449}

0

ive-chosen-an-integer-in-the-range

891.5475479770844

I've chosen an integer in the range [1, 2^69], this market resolves YES if someone writes it in the comments, NO otherwise. Closes January 3rd. (read description)

1672774380000

FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42

cpmm-1

0

2.116958279717084

True

play

NO

public

1672386688902

Levi Bankman Finkelstein

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I ctrl-f and write the number and it's highlighted in the comments then it counts as having been written.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672774483461

350

levifinkelstein

1672721316831

0

https://firebasestorage.…7af-758a6b65d591

1

16

0

https://firebasestorage.…9ed-e6e4750a2a3d

16

[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672386922794}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1672386689169}, ...

["metaforecasting", "mathematics", "programming"]

0.5

1672721315413

1672400610213

0.07

0.5

E1KxbR2MSAYnSTMBl5Vg

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0

no-way

611

no way

1672388046994

yeBYDcwEiBYB7e7btlUlGZMheG52

cpmm-1

0

4.3944491546724365

True

play

NO

public

1672387625641

Sarah Connor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-30 12:14 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672388067162

70

SarahConnor

1672388016279

0

https://firebasestorage.…231-f2665679ce41

2

0

https://firebasestorage.…d25-248d74574d8c

2

0.5

1672388016031

0.5

lj9VuYAolfG190hbLQ14

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0

please-no

601

Please no

1672388148235

yeBYDcwEiBYB7e7btlUlGZMheG52

cpmm-1

0

4.3944491546724365

True

play

NO

public

1672387679163

Sarah Connor

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-30 12:15 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672388209228

70

SarahConnor

1672388126083

0

https://firebasestorage.…231-f2665679ce41

2

0

https://firebasestorage.…e1a-19eba42f6544

2

0.5

1672388125882

0.5

0.5943605370114584

yim9ZiVfGw7QSdb8Q3Fi

{"NO": 2238.0580026061425, "YES": 66.92448301969159}

1

will-isaac-king-misresolve-a-market

4394.037442116012

Will Isaac King misresolve a market during 2023?

1680824177610

qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1

cpmm-1

0

1.913490114640406

True

play

YES

public

1672388425043

M.H.

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Need not be deliberate, only that, according to myself and what I expect would be the opinion of an intelligent, neutral observer, Isaac King misresolved a market.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680824177610

330

MilfordHammerschmidt

1680824189322

0

https://firebasestorage.…a16-139e7e2fef8f

16

0

https://firebasestorage.…a5c-adc53702d726

11

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672388425893}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 168068744997...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1680751410261

1680824186103

0.98

0.8530120621414046

Ohu2h7yRfAI9UtYuRbN0

{"NO": 748.8249515172282, "YES": 203.69821336185635}

1

20-questions-will-anyone-guess-my-f

1185.1082937950996

20 questions: Will anyone guess my favorite number by the end of January?

1672896148643

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.8017709492424236

True

play

YES

public

1672389097925

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/ive-decided-on-a-number-between-1-a", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672896148643

270

IsaacKing

1672900094365

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…ca7-9a22caf943eb

22

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1672389098192}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672791494850}]

["fun", "mathematics"]

0.5

1672894643316

1672900090086

0.96

0.09999909999909999

rxHcfmAKh2SDsBw9MFr3

{"NO": 350, "YES": 12.099698143425826}

0.75999975999976

destiny-stock-numeric-20

100

Destiny stock numeric 2.0

1672390930482

qK2Os09UuzR0zFXcqfAlL65BAQF2

cpmm-1

0

4.986729018728685

True

play

MKT

public

1672390751477

Harry Seaton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672390930482

250

HarrySeaton8da7

1672390913266

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5P5PrUENf7W1Qea1u6xu1-kbDIE6uXt8rtmHq4=s96-c

1

0

https://firebasestorage.…a85-b7db470d6a02

1

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "qK2Os09UuzR0zFXcqfAlL65BAQF2", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672390751980}]

["destinygg"]

0.0999990999991

1672390912025

0.75999975999976

0.5990673717076495

JQYZLi6pF8hQaDflL824

{"NO": 3445.6932340167787, "YES": 77.10066546079906}

0.9856356420639528

destiny-numeric-stock-20

5226.631099696575

Destiny numeric stock 2.0

1673078442064

qK2Os09UuzR0zFXcqfAlL65BAQF2

cpmm-1

0

2.1219350763255527

True

play

MKT

public

1672391023692

Harry Seaton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673078442064

430

HarrySeaton8da7

1710218346931

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5P5PrUENf7W1Qea1u6xu1-kbDIE6uXt8rtmHq4=s96-c

12

0

https://firebasestorage.…664-98095c7f3e92

10

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}]

["destinygg"]

0.33333333333333326

1673078415528

1672453355759

0.9856356420639528

0.336120851616794

xe7lUvhmLr943tsspqSm

{"NO": 189.5047293547056, "YES": 312.293520437975}

0

will-levifinkelstein-regret-having

134.58765392260727

Will @levifinkelstein regret having created their integer guessing market?

1672905600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

1.6791676471405155

True

play

NO

public

1672395635962

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/ive-chosen-an-integer-in-the-range", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/ive-chosen-an-integer-in-the-range", "class": null, "target": "_bla...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672942202996

230

IsaacKing

1672919236642

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

11

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…abd-b159c5a83170

10

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1672395636732}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1672753761175

1672919230789

0.24

QJ7VuQCoQ2iMHxmjGUMs

who-is-grimes-alt

110

Who is grimes' alt? [resolves when 95% confident]

1735603140000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672395783022

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve when I am 95% sure of the correct answer.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The \"ingroup\" alt she alludes to here:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twit...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

NathanpmYoung

1705077804314

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

1

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "502366f310d2", "prob": 0.4404444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.06008709699605, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.43456070143091, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QJ7VuQCoQ2iMHxmjGUMs", "createdTime": 1672395783937, "probChanges": {"day": -0.559555555555...

3

https://firebasestorage.…0ec-1160a8da2b90

5

[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1672395783821}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime...

["entertainment", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1685186663144

1705074461659

True

0.5

RjHmH4FLHIakBo30g8ve

{"NO": 50, "YES": 50}

0.5

method-pace

0

method pace

1672444740000

qV70C8rWUmghAWmBDP6ywdzr4Ro1

cpmm-1

0

4.3944491546724365

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672396361794

Giannis Xatz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "method pace", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1702616835369

50

GiannisXatz

1710208054929

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5N0byABEdNtTgJZCjCucDbdmK9-t7l_XlzbTTX=s96-c

0

70

https://firebasestorage.…d41-5a6e4afd63e8

1

[{"name": "Spam", "slug": "spam-d3e1f5f3888d", "groupId": "CWxMhRrXWkUjCTkyRo7w"}]

["spam-d3e1f5f3888d"]

0.5

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.6006024259573189

P2pLhD7byDbaPJGIYSay

{"NO": 164.16629690023888, "YES": 2946.8688423767862}

0

by-the-end-of-2023-will-any-twitter

9371.85707491022

Will any Twitter account with at least 10,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?

1704096000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

0.8755902377066596

True

basic

NO

public

1672397582217

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In order to be \"discovered\" to be an AI, it must not have been publically known prior to the discovery.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some minor human curating is fine, as is a human tweet...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704177589452

1005

IsaacKing

1704177589808

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

6

58

0

1

29

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1672397582625}, {"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1672397588690}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon...

["ai", "twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]

0.5

1704090305732

1704145687601

False

0.08

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

0.41942815690049684

jCc0px46l0kUpTlcP8Ao

{"NO": 306.22913671815826, "YES": 806.8066784961071}

0

will-this-market-have-more-users-th

637.932336927317

Will this market have more users than % yes when it closes?

1673611200000

XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1

cpmm-1

0

0.8749945580961066

True

play

NO

public

1672397732934

Fion

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the number of users on the \"Users\" tab is greater than the YES percentage at the time the market closes. Ties resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, if t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673611516423

490

Fion

1673611120010

0

https://firebasestorage.…c2e-6bc532e44aed

1

25

0

https://firebasestorage.…f38-55d7bcac5eb6

25

[{"name": "Silliness", "slug": "silliness", "userId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "groupId": "GmwLcKnZl1oX7Pp5Z7sW", "createdTime": 1672397733100}, {"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1672397749083}]

["silliness", "metaforecasting"]

0.5

1673611118732

1672476179159

0.22

0.3731148854544812

KfTPHQ379gL6mRfo2cDU

{"NO": 51.3384138088752, "YES": 105.07162799556983}

0.22529355658341815

did-the-pizza-box-image-in-any-way

90

Did the pizza box image in any way help Romanian authorities catch andrew state?

1672404814200

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

3.9641730377342936

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672398432916

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 30, 11:07am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Did the pizza box image in any way help authorities catch andrew state?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Did the pizza box image in any way help Romanian authorities catch...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672404814200

110

NathanpmYoung

1672404807677

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

3

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ef-6d34525e8287

4

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672398433733}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1672404328066

1672404804514

0.13

0.811008949003716

37nwahZJguzAkrQlVm31

{"NO": 269.6358154877367, "YES": 385.69208820504576}

1

ive-baked-a-cake-using-a-subset-of

4694.198950757927

I've baked a cake using a subset of the given ingredients (read description). Resolves YES if someone guesses which in the comments.

1672675006123

FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42

cpmm-1

0

1.6087773919778496

True

play

YES

public

1672400075821

Levi Bankman Finkelstein

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RULES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A comment will resolve the market to YES if it contains my chosen subset in the following format: {'eggs','sugar','butter'}", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672675006123

390

levifinkelstein

1672864562947

0

https://firebasestorage.…7af-758a6b65d591

19

0

https://firebasestorage.…2c2-01ce79eee675

16

[{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1672400076082}]

["metaforecasting"]

0.5

1672635376030

1672864561922

0.75

0.23462361334059564

QNyLOI4TyKFozQJ8UWEk

{"NO": 972.0144992680673, "YES": 1035.095040585602}

0.22352122299291752

will-the-uk-move-to-what-i-consider

710.4250173588972

Will the UK move to what I consider to be ~a german/dutch healthcare system by 2035?

2082758340000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

9.626665026595937

False

basic

public

1672403266033

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please help me improve the question", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NathanpmYoung

1695804797734

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…c26-f2ed738f99a6

11

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672403266962}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1682887697909

1695804797083

0.6921804104317361

rDDcRKHfs7FYinPum1vw

{"NO": 3097.1076739797727, "YES": 392.24251923017334}

0.946681350855213

will-caltrain-electrification-finis

2886.582523630694

Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024?

1735635600000

kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1

cpmm-1

0.1547702974326419

10.25173399354098

False

basic

public

1672406504038

Yona

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Caltrain electric trains are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "anticipated", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.caltrain.com/news/caltrain-electrification-delayed-2024", "class": null, "target": "_blank"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.026321185815750936}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.899270802788166, "platformFee": 0.2720437426927126, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

xyz

1718228074195

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…9c0-05d4951471d1

1

38

0

https://firebasestorage.…0de-7b8b47436bd9

16

[{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1672450138115}, {"name": "Travel", "slug": "travel", "userId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "groupId": "EMJGCVmmk2GpTD7pH0wV", "createdTime": 1672450124984}, {"name": "Polit...

["politics-default", "travel", "san-francisco", "infrastructure", "transportation"]

0.13650780213205646

0.5

1718228070917

1710483590784

0.7601089535674848

NxdbhY7JBko0pAqmvmRT

{"NO": 29848.25083930678, "YES": 117.31072386727573}

1

will-manifold-support-direct-messag

40249.720925217865

Will Manifold support direct messaging between users by end-of-year 2023

1697342317512

kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2

cpmm-1

0

1.1708978151173186

True

play

YES

public

1672410165264

Jon Simon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Many interesting discussions happen in the comment sections of Manifold markets, but occasionally these discussions will get away from the exact subject matter of the market, such that a separate one-on-one discussion would be more appropriate.", "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1697342317512

730

jonsimon

1697246356335

0

https://firebasestorage.…044-b37f36b0f757

2

37

0

https://firebasestorage.…baa-90a189d6baee

17

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672410186159}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "created...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1697246356063

1697213705451

1

0.2827397300879992

b8mNrTfGxYUXEq7tXrD6

{"NO": 913.5311737125917, "YES": 1142.4197464334163}

0.2396683993702121

will-sam-bankmanfrieds-father-or-mo

2776.4136112576034

Will Sam Bankman-Fried's father or mother be indicted by 2025?

1735758000000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0.05862890291917689

9.61873424847985

False

basic

public

1672411313203

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.011311005221896014, "month": -0.07769320256586473}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.005649361456195, "platformFee": 3.7914504330913306, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ernie

1719860952077

1.6

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

1

41

1

https://firebasestorage.…134-f64806c07de5

13

[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1672411313456}, {"name": "SBF", "slug": "sbf", "groupId": "svyYtbhviU1lv8aMS9E1", "createdTime": 1695759038116}, {"name": "SBF Trial", "slug": "sbf-trial", "groupId": "4fb66c1a-82d9-4346-8...

["finance", "sbf", "sbf-trial", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "ftx"]

0.11628542052353194

0.5

1719860948573

1673714999646

0.26341742350917746

x2lWbOI90u8R2X5PR5t9

{"NO": 152.48306808484688, "YES": 282.9209333722396}

0.16159672710671055

will-there-be-a-highspeed-rail-betw

141.01356180611754

Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of the decade?

1672510535821

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

2.32531538944077

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672411554772

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tweet b", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/CaHSRA/status/1608201962167701508?t=F2JgGsYH2XCGJ-NzBNpTBQ&s=19", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672510535821

190

CarsonGale

1672511141430

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

8

0

https://firebasestorage.…c8f-b9a903cde2e5

9

[{"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1672411554973}]

["california"]

0.5

1672495537550

1672511138529

0.16

0.18732754417697453

YCAV1cSOJwYQ24X6T5P1

{"NO": 238.1490088859079, "YES": 2943.1202918466406}

0

will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d

4468.3077454667755

Will Germany's gas storage in 2023 drop below 25%?

1703501499281

Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1

cpmm-1

0.010519051388187657

1.82112333362686

True

play

NO

public

1672414293554

Marktwse

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2022 the gas storage of Germany was down to 25%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Areas/ElectricityGas/CollectionCompanySpecific...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703501499281

430

marktwse

1703501483295

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…bef-c594df1664e4

0

22

0

https://firebasestorage.…54f-fd5396f1f551

9

[{"name": "German Politics", "slug": "german-politics", "userId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "groupId": "LLEOgfoEBr6wg3VEdFJc", "createdTime": 1672414646658}, {"name": "European Union", "slug": "european-union", "userId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "groupId": "yDH8ujgF86zAYx8XpCc1", "createdTime": 16724146420...

["germany", "european-union", "german-politics", "energy-crisis", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.14014891257981701

0.5

1703330032454

1703501481570

0.02

Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1

0.11726937612635718

3DV51Vvd3jTra3e1qIOg

{"NO": 863.8039331473786, "YES": 2141.170208924066}

0.05086826230214323

will-magnus-carlsen-be-the-world-ch

2271.232687777786

Will Magnus Carlsen be the World Chess Champion again in 2025?

1767196260000

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

cpmm-1

0

10.184246844674458

False

basic

public

1672415478490

MP

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Carlsen wins the 2025 classic chess championship, this market solves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market solves to NO as soon as we are sure Magnus can't challenge the title...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.137511718689573, "platformFee": 1.137511718689573, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MP

1714597668330

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf

20

0

https://firebasestorage.…548-90cc8af83217

5

[{"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1672415478723}]

["chess"]

0.5

1714597664909

1692984744674

0.17163565990050855

99xEFRw0OVdoJHUs47Du

{"NO": 756.3719990675526, "YES": 1502.587357051913}

0.09444848643412698

will-samesex-marriage-become-legal

3689.126956798527

Will same-sex marriage become legal in South Korea before 2030?

1893391140000

qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1

cpmm-1

0.5624334150902891

10.009042093270551

False

basic

public

1672416656916

Elspeth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.02746909449236025}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.147132199461945, "platformFee": 0.11997516016623364, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Elspeth

1719159875100

3.5

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2YW8OqjQHKeOg__RKSHtatt46deQK-sc3X4I5x=s96-c

0

23

0

https://firebasestorage.…b02-1613ecba18d2

2

[{"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1672416657203}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1688773238665}]

["lgbtqia", "asia"]

0.11250822489593977

0.5

1719159872039

False

0.21836775836395145

J8H75hyjxLPUi8DpjjjE

{"NO": 337.37378884265786, "YES": 11325.274916233202}

0

will-xi-jinping-meet-with-vladimir

12559.388069736819

Will Xi Jinping meet with Vladimir Putin in Russia by the end of February 2023?

1677646740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

1.200052123531672

True

play

NO

public

1672421756304

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Putin signaled that he expects Xi to visit him soon during a conference call between the two this morning. Resolves YES if Xi and Putin meet on Russian soil by the end of February 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Will...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677744292078

830

BTE

1677644269183

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

2

41

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…523-8d62a9d2a016

25

[{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1672421756507}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225282}]

["who-does-xi-think-he-is", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1677644268046

1676992254594

False

0.01

0.2804401630351677

bxZVdf7Vg6n6lTrLUEGp

{"NO": 124.9947469969009, "YES": 1375.0126964022757}

0

will-a-current-member-of-the-uk-par

1442.7203874095565

Will a current member of the UK Parliament be known to have used MDMA by the end of 2023?

1704067140000

Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03

cpmm-1

0

2.1935745360423997

True

play

NO

public

1672421790860

WXTJ

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They must be a member of Parliament at some point between 1/1/22 and 31/12/23. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The MDMA use can be at any point in their life. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704496223773

270

WXTJ

1704496224186

0

https://firebasestorage.…ed7-9ff9afa6374e

2

13

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…a5d-af701a428ef8

8

[{"name": "Drug Policy", "slug": "drug-policy", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "B6bj6VYMErDbfcWWSpAj", "createdTime": 1672422692381}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1672422683818}, {"name": ...

["politics-default", "uk-politics", "drug-policy", "law-order", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704047165506

1704291946493

0.03

Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03

0.43792705342639365

yle8Ypzxw12SsaBhAb4w

{"NO": 1260.569762786921, "YES": 2.902638305180858}

1

will-intel-corporation-intc-stock-p

1423.1861929715637

Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock price have increased >=10% before the end of Febuary 2023?

1673111575346

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

5.8174059551249675

True

play

YES

public

1672422304331

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current stock price: $26.19", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Target: >= $28.81", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this is \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "before ", "t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673111575346

90

GeorgeVii

1673111706698

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

1

3

0

https://firebasestorage.…d54-7bdc96362bd1

3

[{"name": "Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1672422304530}]

["stocks"]

0.5

1673111545509

1673111704129

0.9

0.6821147636807062

PNVFPZo8DsEdXRIWbapn

{"NO": 310.54310004184066, "YES": 42.533622487719484}

1

will-manifold-allow-selling-on-vari

297.35204177754406

Will Manifold allow selling on variable-choice markets by end-of-year 2023?

1672430568303

kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2

cpmm-1

0

4.213403770308563

True

play

YES

public

1672422312671

Jon Simon

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently on variable-choice markets such as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/mrb/who-will-win-the-2024-us-preside...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672430568303

110

jonsimon

1672431575599

0

https://firebasestorage.…044-b37f36b0f757

4

0

https://firebasestorage.…ce0-3acf458ae00c

5

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1672422313605}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "created...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1672427762186

1672431573235

0.94

0.28198417665435604

zKfUJVe7tStAcPPCDBy9

{"NO": 57.25096585310723, "YES": 754.8560040453772}

0

will-intel-corporation-intc-stock-p-f44acb94dea8

1160.64921602177

Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock price have decreased by >=10% before the end of Febuary 2023?

1677628740000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

3.7564381811723333

True

play

NO

public

1672422331655

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current stock price: $26.19", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Target: <= $23.57", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note that this is \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "before ", "type": "text",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678496802066

130

GeorgeVii

1678380021318

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

1

7

0

3

https://firebasestorage.…a7f-d6f031dc9dde

6

[{"name": "Stocks", "slug": "stocks", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "createdTime": 1672422332525}]

["stocks"]

0.5

1677626676244

1678380017993

0.03

0.6962500465437788

6IJhHjncyFehR9BWVosQ

{"NO": 833.4231387662254, "YES": 119.42696223668327}

1

will-xqc-beat-forsens-minecraft-rec-fb900e540805

4923.181093692957

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft record before February 2023?

1672851851471

WOnVZ3AMkzYBtTD6h9UCzUq1vJs1

cpmm-1

0

2.165435106519541

True

play

YES

public

1672425625489

PieFreak

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Forsen and xQc are both variety streamers who often play competitive games. But sometimes they take a break to play more creative and fun titles. One of the games both decided to try out when their own favorites got stale was Minecraft. But Forsen ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672851851471

270

PieFreak

1672851834887

0

https://firebasestorage.…08e-790c3a23fd6d

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…11f-a6d0bd243cd3

13

[{"name": "xQc", "slug": "xqc", "userId": "WOnVZ3AMkzYBtTD6h9UCzUq1vJs1", "groupId": "YMfPf8QA71hjsIQYoTvV", "createdTime": 1672425650029}, {"name": "Forsen", "slug": "forsen", "userId": "WOnVZ3AMkzYBtTD6h9UCzUq1vJs1", "groupId": "KdICHFhCLmYkbESMaEq5", "createdTime": 1672425648147}, {"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "des...

["destinygg", "forsen", "xqc"]

0.5

1672851833650

0.93

0.359427275758835

cyPMykWlDtNqIjC4sQgm

{"NO": 152.38712517889482, "YES": 196.30974174650464}

0.3034082277540325

will-ted-cruz-be-backed-by-donald-t

80.42649099391507

Will Ted Cruz be backed by Donald Trump for any office he runs for?

1730851140000

ySGTuLQzySgd0T5rbeFr1R9EsvE2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672426110532

Tedhguru

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Donald Trump endorses him for any public office position, resolves NO if Ted Cruz campaigns without endorsement from Donald Trump. Resolves N/A if Ted Cruz does not run for public office.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

170

Tedhguru

1686413518259

0

https://firebasestorage.…da9-df156485e132

6

0

https://firebasestorage.…c2e-d99b7ca4f116

5

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "ySGTuLQzySgd0T5rbeFr1R9EsvE2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672426111110}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892764}]

["politics-default", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1686413518067

False

0.0733619572903973

VPznDkthak7jL2cf7ebE

{"NO": 394.5748783562674, "YES": 333.21583860759335}

0.08571307713788497

by-what-year-will-a-consumer-noninv

334.8404957240996

By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?

7289481600000

oJSRhfb09oWNaYn2Odqswe03Rkt2

cpmm-1

0.12788984306444637

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672426460307

Jake Toth

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This device must read and/or write directly to the brain and require no surgery. This device must be used by general consumers not for the primary purpose of treating or monitoring a health condition.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"t...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

390

JakeToth

1709379365092

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…0dd-58da5ed32e40

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…eda-b8402e949bd4

4

[{"name": "Brain–computer interface", "slug": "braincomputer-interface", "userId": "oJSRhfb09oWNaYn2Odqswe03Rkt2", "groupId": "QuOLd2DNx4MnaOR1aCzu", "createdTime": 1672426460521}]

["braincomputer-interface"]

0.1106169768236678

0.06779661016949153

1709379364928

0.3819384059823346

Mhg1Tbol7bZuucKh3f2D

{"NO": 272.8327070551218, "YES": 3486.6721001090996}

0.04612520125220994

will-the-spacex-starship-successful

9120.118316767404

Will the SpaceX Starship successfully deorbit and land softly in the ocean on the first launch attempt?

1682013884857

TY0Nr7GWhOe2Qk9Ay7CLJUgzMUg1

cpmm-1

0

0.8633463687846881

True

play

CANCEL

public

1672427114657

Tony Jackson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Starship performs a controlled hover ~<250m above the ocean surface.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to No if the ship is lost at any earlier point in the launc...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682013884857

750

TonyJackson

1682009486676

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5HAXjAo2OgB3KEnGPu7cM3SyHZTGzLxuQfHVjiFg=s96-c

1

38

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…647-5b9c3012c714

20

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "TY0Nr7GWhOe2Qk9Ay7CLJUgzMUg1", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1672427115470}, {"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1673801578616}]

["space", "spacex"]

0.5

1682009486570

1682000632067

0.05

0.5378332606364157

dZMLt1sG3bg1DNPtKfaO

{"NO": 264.378291983586, "YES": 350.85292038363485}

0.4672063321267355

mrgirls-music-career-stock-permanen

333.94864782116576

mrgirl's Music Career Stock (Permanent)

33217163036424

5om4frnzUaYDgC192KQEEBGStIj1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672427171758

Daliban Adjacent

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's a permanent market for mrgirl's music career in the style of the prolific memestiny. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold separate the art from the artist? ", "type": "text"}]...

STONK

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

310

DalibanAdjacent

1713585287098

0

https://firebasestorage.…61d-e32f4a60b06d

16

0

https://firebasestorage.…460-fe7be687899d

10

[{"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "all stonks", "slug": "all-stonks", "groupId": "82a3ffe0-4f06-4a64-a341-963e9767d08e"}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1713585286366}, {"name":...

["destinygg", "all-stonks", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"]

0.5

False

1703157217104

False

0.37369703313499225

TKbeoYzC6RejUGkIYqLe

{"NO": 314.9010979107404, "YES": 8816.680138227788}

0

will-destiny-livestream-on-cozytv-i

14349.350058533953

Will Destiny livestream on cozy.tv in 2023?

1704085140000

k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1

cpmm-1

0

0.7559894005632155

True

basic

NO

public

1672427302275

Butidigress

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if he goes live on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "cozy.tv/destiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://cozy.tv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704164865524

1180

Butidigress

1704164865820

0.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XmJ94Qz8SgF05tqF6WJS9d0nGUVmZ24o0-qBH=s96-c

4

56

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…68b-d7e7f885ad3c

27

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672427302702}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703120358424}]

["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.12820567116724646

0.5

1703924286657

1672428286245

0.02

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.7506445640832408

pC2MzOIYGpiqNe93fVYy

{"NO": 1243.656531403507, "YES": 32.76036475712874}

1

n-integers-came-to-me-in-a-dream-fr

1082.0179263776856

N integers came to me in a dream. From the size of N we can deduce that 5 of the integers will be the same or 5 will be pairwise distinct. Resolves YES if anyone provides (with correctness proof) the smallest possible such N.

1672432311562

FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42

cpmm-1

0

4.8416745154197605

True

play

YES

public

1672427537871

Levi Bankman Finkelstein

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Proof just has to be convincing to me, can in principle be anything: computer brute force, mathemtical proof, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I can reveal that N<=50.", "type": "text"}]},...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672432311562

150

levifinkelstein

1672432323311

0

https://firebasestorage.…7af-758a6b65d591

1

8

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b8-6fbf56d37b25

7

[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1672427538079}, {"name": "puzzles", "slug": "puzzles", "userId": "FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42", "groupId": "Bunp21gX1V9JRgzPNDhp", "createdTime": 1686228230511}]

["mathematics", "puzzles"]

0.5

1672432222361

1672432321261

0.96

0.2523116124407414

kXGpgdeDvY4QVKUTDmwE

{"NO": 479.42278026094226, "YES": 3072.761301267081}

0

will-destiny-livestream-on-cozytv-b

8378.07044077009

Will Destiny livestream on cozy.tv before April?

1680321540000

k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1

cpmm-1

0

0.7936884229756194

True

play

NO

public

1672428110013

Butidigress

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if he goes live on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "cozy.tv/destiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://cozy.tv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680332914401

800

Butidigress

1680131554949

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1XmJ94Qz8SgF05tqF6WJS9d0nGUVmZ24o0-qBH=s96-c

1

33

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…dc5-323d7d0b4134

20

[{"name": "Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "userId": "k48blIwzagRttjKpJ7pabEqNKSr1", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj", "createdTime": 1672428110464}]

["destinygg"]

0.5

1680131554807

1672428261589

0.05

0.3307880913269125

HuiZMd5buzohfB8ssTAo

{"NO": 115.86544291179848, "YES": 463.3801791356585}

0

will-i-have-the-most-profit-on-the

1131.639266094287

Will I have the most profit on the leaderboard of the Gale Family group by end of 2023?

1704133103632

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0.19450499313222955

2.1730357264545352

True

play

NO

public

1672428328620

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Referencing the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Gale Family", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/gale-family/leaderboards", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " Manifold group. As...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704133155830

190

CarsonGale

1704133156083

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

10

0

https://firebasestorage.…7fa-b8ef3f15d984

2

[{"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1672428328822}, {"name": "Markets About Carson", "slug": "markets-about-carson", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "QF1b8oZcjh8UqJO0VKAa", "createdTime": 1679175...

["gale-family", "markets-about-carson", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1153694807167347

0.5

1697954026285

1704133076447

0.11

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

0.4421719346851836

iXUc9310GWofknQ0dJTP

{"NO": 1030.1564759767307, "YES": 957.4486768068031}

0.46029425129072515

there-will-be-a-change-to-the-perma

388.71296161423015

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

2209057200000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0.295178395398818

9.710351279058052

False

basic

public

1672428358998

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.015936238791359247}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.1076843499679132, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ernie

1719074970586

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

0

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…c1b-eacb55350e47

9

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1672428359620}]

["politics-default"]

0.13196579756460736

0.5

1719074967514

1672551260940

0.11818817024243881

tdLJ6ey8AP0je7lQJgmN

{"NO": 953.6395765240919, "YES": 1171.5023701375403}

0.09837099359217842

new-national-mask-mandates-in-the-u

554.9791459721536

New national mask mandates in the US by mid-2026

1780336800000

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

cpmm-1

0

10.064361669968168

False

basic

public

1672428478837

Ernie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Either: there will be a federal mandate to wear masks in indoor public places, or at least 25 states have such a mandate at the same time", "type": "text"}]...

BINARY

{"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Ernie

1712814498854

0

https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…8c3-d63815dedc12

9

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1672428479076}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681610036222}]

["medicine", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1712814495595

0.08343996056419666

TDy0AjkDeOmhvSBRvos5

{"NO": 154.67207730117437, "YES": 267.5338199649167}

0.04999999999999996

will-members-of-the-gale-family-col

372.91948206679655

Will members of the Gale Family collectively receive over $50,000 by being family-style "Man-Influencers" (Manifold Influencers) by 2050?

2556165540000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672428503670

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You never know!", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

190

CarsonGale

1689308952745

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

1

8

0

https://firebasestorage.…52f-57a68b884ec9

4

[{"name": "Gale Family", "slug": "gale-family", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "KunXfiULYjO4H7qF7mV6", "createdTime": 1672428503923}]

["gale-family"]

0.5

1689308952601

0.3922365681558509

RELljtcpe9g9kvXx4I7a

{"NO": 91.74976855211254, "YES": 2081.9662115068604}

0

will-gmail-allow-me-to-filter-messa

2000.6590931853905

Will Gmail allow me to “Filter messages like these” on mobile by end of 2023?

1704095940000

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

1.9560293120456174

True

play

NO

public

1672428682124

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On my computer, when I get an email that I want to be filtering into a folder (or spam, or whatever), I can select \"Filter messages like these\" to set up this filter. I don't see this option on my phone. If it exists already and someone here tell...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704096448809

350

Conflux

1704096449137

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

17

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…309-8573d37f6edc

11

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1672428682606}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130657985}]

["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704087126528

0.03

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

0.41743434880876534

qLdU5geUdPYkDZRyudGd

{"NO": 442.61325495529366, "YES": 321.75799294666706}

0.45500632850502115

for-how-many-years-has-david-duke-b

331.9525143071594

For how many years has David Duke been promoting White supremacy?

1675205940000

S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2

cpmm-1

0

0.9525339200891546

True

play

MKT

public

1672428909035

tailcalled

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am fascinated by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Isaac King's resolution criterion here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/has-scott-alexander-ever-attempted", "class": null, "target":...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675535006804

390

tailcalled

1675535193897

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxeZfsEiMzmTe5-vZ4oy9KNLEAgzRxC3sy9FWoUvg=s96-c

1

9

0

1

11

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1672428910083}, {"name": "Culture War", "slug": "culture-war", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "DEHK9bp6pMlniVYuHPKI", "createdTime": 1673773180679}]

["us-politics", "culture-war"]

0.37633003551008753

1674946154073

1675535189248

0.45500632850502115

0.7895648870585293

2VLwRY8wdGaQOCqLeiK9

{"NO": 1147.9046958561776, "YES": 945.44028668637}

0.8199999999999995

will-this-market-still-exist-at-the

286.69239795857266

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

1767254400000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

3.078191837246648e-15

9.685572725628205

False

basic

public

1672429619623

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some things can't be usefully posed as a normal market question. Questions like", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold go bankrupt before 20...

BINARY

{"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1695392065866

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

3

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…195-c951c9949e39

5

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1672429619951}]

["experimental"]

0.09393139538294748

0.5

1695392065365

1672437017350

0.8031792816881813

t434wXt18QPJPXLDEvwn

{"NO": 967.6825813111469, "YES": 164.5369212199149}

0.9600000000000001

will-this-market-still-exist-at-the-8260c9c4c93e

1555.1755571788847

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2024? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

1704096000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672429715673

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some things can't be usefully posed as a normal market question. Questions like", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold go bankrupt before 20...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

250

IsaacKing

1709805068318

0.4

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

3

15

0

33

https://firebasestorage.…4cd-8a784b8168ef

5

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1672429715895}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703131889929}, {"name": "Barca...

["experimental", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]

0.10214734135697992

0.5

1703332877863

1709805067992

0.5410560371561787

MNpL9YfhNQh0dbSw8Oww

{"NO": 139.13889644273593, "YES": 121.91447426401913}

0.5736472628873941

will-this-market-still-exist-at-the-01e88d86c20d

80.8707400036154

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

2051251200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1672429855362

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some things can't be usefully posed as a normal market question. Questions like", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold go bankrupt before 20...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

130

IsaacKing

1712063685209

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

7

0

https://firebasestorage.…f5e-331a9dc3b5cf

1

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1672429855563}]

["experimental"]

0.5

1712063681641

0.8493653197410507

RB0qrMvs7pTGUYkAHXQK

{"NO": 2541.3169456838095, "YES": 143.7851022612549}

1

will-this-market-still-exist-at-the-64a9976e23a8

2620.2876043366023

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2024? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

1704096000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

3.5503916924849324

True

play

YES

public

1672429956431

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some things can't be usefully posed as a normal market question. Questions like", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Manifold go bankrupt before 20...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1708975457614

250

IsaacKing

1708975457975

0.4

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

3

12

0

12

https://firebasestorage.…9ec-a6204d63defe

4

[{"name": "Experimental", "slug": "experimental", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "GAn872bm0J8FT8pNYtyq", "createdTime": 1672429956666}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703129483914}, {"name": "Barca...

["experimental", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]

0.11574301241628637

0.5

1687408315854

1692795916299

0.99

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3