CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

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Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

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Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

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N cats came to me in a dream. From the size of N we can deduce that 5 of the cats will all be friends or 5 will be pairwise not friends. Resolves YES if anyone provides (with correctness proof) the smallest possible such N.

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Will any Twitter account with at least 100,000 followers be discovered to be an AI during 2023?

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Will Manifold admins/mods take any moderation action against me by the end of 2023?

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Will Elon Musk's twitter account be hacked in 2023?

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Confirmation that Elon Musk has more than 20 biological children

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Confirmation that Elon Musk has more than 90 biological children

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Will the US approve an arms sales to Taiwan totaling greater than $2Bln during 2023?

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I was looking at a 1000kg salami made of 99.9% hot sauce when a gnome came along and drank some of the hot sauce. The salami is now 99.8% hot sauce. Market resolves YES if the salami's new weight >500kg. NO if <=500kg.

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will-a-republican-politician-be-ind

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What teams will make it to the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?

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Punished Ten Shino

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will-aba-call-in-before-the-end-of

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WILL ABA CALL IN BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR?

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0.4828689028084032

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Will SBF make a tweet before Jan 10, 2022 11:59pm ET?

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Will SBF make a tweet before Jan 20, 2022 11:59pm ET?

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Will SBF make a tweet before Jan 30, 2022 11:59pm ET?

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cpmm-1

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3.018606016070692

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Ammon Lam

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I just ate 7 jelly bean flavors: toasted marshmallow, sizzling cinnamon, buttered popcorn, pink grapefruit, strawberry punch, pineapple dream, wild blackberry. Market resolves YES if anyone guesses which I liked the most/least.

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1.6104840831825715

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YES

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Levi Bankman Finkelstein

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Will Olaf Scholz say in his new years speech >= 5 times the word "Ukraine"?

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2.052527290390327

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Svenbonne

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Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?

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0.5870122414383343

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Victor Forsgren

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Will John Carmacks target VR headset be released by any manufacturer by 2026?

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10.586609649448985

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Jake Toth

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3.9433226409976974

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1672441059722

John Jingleheimer

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1.9729062503662655

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1672441152812

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