Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
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slug
string
volume
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dpmPool
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question
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realAnte
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closeTime
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creatorId
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mechanism
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startPool
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totalBets
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dailyScore
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elasticity
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marketTier
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resolution
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creatorName
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description
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probChanges
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subsidyPool
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collectedFees
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phantomShares
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totalLiquidity
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creatorUsername
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popularityScore
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creatorAvatarUrl
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likedByUserCount
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uniqueBettorCount
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uniqueBettorCountDay
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addAnswersMode
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answers
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bountyTxns
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closeEmailsSent
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conversionScore
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coverImageUrl
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creatorCreatedTime
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deleted
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followerCount
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freshnessScore
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groupLinks
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groupSlugs
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importanceScore
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initialProbability
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isPolitics
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isRanked
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isSubsidized
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lastBetTime
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lastCommentTime
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loverUserId1
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loverUserId2
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matchCreatorId
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nonPredictive
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resolutionProbability
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resolutions
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resolverId
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shouldAnswersSumToOne
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sort
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totalBounty
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unlistedById
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username
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{"NO": 85, "YES": 205}
19. Will unemployment be below 5% in December 2022?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 85, "YES": 205}
0
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YES
public
1643688064156
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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20. Will Google widely allow remote work, no questions asked by the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
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play
NO
public
1643688064950
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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21. Will Starship reach orbit in 2022?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 90, "YES": 270}
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play
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public
1643688065483
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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{"NO": 1968.617077242942, "YES": 1580.8937342364648}
13. Will Ethereum be above $5k at the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
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True
play
NO
public
1643688212979
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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["crypto-prices", "acx-2022-predictions"]
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{"NO": 170, "YES": 43}
22. Will there be fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022?
1672552740000
Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 170, "YES": 43}
0
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play
NO
public
1643688493971
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
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ACXBot
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[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601085}, {"name": "ACX 2022 Predictions", "slug": "acx-2022-predictions", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "YKdHEC4NMDbQohUfCHAI", "createdTime": 1675293686372}]
["medicine", "acx-2022-predictions"]
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{"NO": 124, "YES": 8.079727679950537}
23. Will there be fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022?
1672552740000
Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 124, "YES": 7}
0
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True
play
NO
public
1643688494380
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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{"NO": 99.498743710662, "YES": 10}
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ACXBot
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[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601085}]
["medicine"]
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{"NO": 924.5760222245906, "YES": 169.97727464670214}
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{"NO": 40, "YES": 256}
24. Will >66% US population be fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID by the end of 2022?
1672552740000
Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 40, "YES": 256}
0
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True
play
YES
public
1643688494814
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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ACXBot
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["covid-d7a9361d772d", "free-money"]
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{"NO": 186.54655462189066, "YES": 55}
25. Will India's official COVID case count be higher than the US by the end of 2022?
1672552740000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 191, "YES": 55}
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play
NO
public
1643688495186
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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ACXBot
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["medicine", "acx-2022-predictions"]
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{"NO": 3077.3622568363803, "YES": 259.6484404476771}
26. Will the medical establishment reverse course and officially say that any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID by the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 3080, "YES": 257}
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play
NO
public
1643688495594
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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["medicine", "acx-2022-predictions"]
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{"NO": 60, "YES": 60}
27. Will FDA approve a COVID indication for fluvoxamine by the end of 2022?
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 60, "YES": 60}
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play
NO
public
1643688495965
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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ACXBot
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["medicine", "acx-2022-predictions"]
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{"NO": 80.93308892885204, "YES": 200}
28. Will some new COVID variant not currently known be greater than 25% of cases in 2022?
1672552740000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 81, "YES": 200}
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play
NO
public
1643688496485
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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29. Will most people Scott sees in his local grocery store on December 31st be wearing masks?
1672552740000
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 391, "YES": 145}
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play
NO
public
1643688496874
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
BINARY
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ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Apr 24, 6:03pm: Almost 1 million cases according to government data reported to WHO: https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn
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1643688498114
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498115
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498116
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498117
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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81. Will Scott run another Book Review Contest in 2022?
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1643688498118
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Apr 24, 5:57pm: Scott says "we’re officially doing this again": https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-contest-rules-2022?s=r
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1643688498119
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498120
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498121
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498122
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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1643688498123
ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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ACX Bot
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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This market resolves positively if there are two or more FTEs working for the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI, https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) by end of year. Feb 1, 12:38pm: FTEs = full-time-equivalents.
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
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1643783654181
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
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{"NO": 24.999999999999996, "YES": 130}
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1643783654654
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
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{"NO": 114, "YES": 1200}
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1643783655678
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From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
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1643783656318
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 630.1822876425002, "YES": 1673.8452610834292}
{"creatorFee": 1.4070886904239144, "platformFee": 0.24270328064528765, "liquidityFee": 1.3088267035282917}
{"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855}
0
1650836982289
100.79142178309259
Manifold
1643783656318
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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1650314805834
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529511392}]
["politics-default"]
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0.13843774900945433
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{"NO": 400.7569360795699, "YES": 19933.37947991052}
0
will-jair-bolsonaro-be-reelected-pr
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{"NO": 158.91067545642522, "YES": 70}
Will Jair Bolsonaro be reelected president of Brazil?
1667254212731
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 160, "YES": 70}
0
1.1673224570137588
True
play
NO
public
1643783656902
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 277.6310842108163, "YES": 176.36103171939232}
{"creatorFee": 14.12721157279172, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663}
0
1667254212731
940
Manifold
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0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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1650314538272
0
95
[{"name": "Brazil", "slug": "brazil-3292d24d179f", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "ZQt0sCK1Hxn0HVJhH108", "createdTime": 1665036305537}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1660053929566}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529482053}, {"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1665036317013}]
["politics-default", "global-macro", "brazil-3292d24d179f", "elections-world"]
1667252717835
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0.6478518418437981
xstXJsQnNkygLNZTr5fe
{"NO": 2427.8023010234533, "YES": 21.82875689471237}
1
will-bongbong-marcos-will-be-electe
2924
{"NO": 44.99999999999999, "YES": 81}
Will Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines?
1652137376869
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 44.99999999999999, "YES": 81}
0
4.854751767210815
True
play
YES
public
1643783657968
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 181.86808406094787}
{"creatorFee": 7.879666641764264, "platformFee": 1.3132777736273775, "liquidityFee": 7.879666641764264}
{"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663}
0
1652137376869
107.87966664176427
Manifold
1652137351224
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
7
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0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529512819}]
["politics-default"]
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{"NO": 848.7016310083525, "YES": 47.9183190371248}
1
will-rebels-fail-to-capture-addis-a
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{"NO": 44.99999999999999, "YES": 70}
Will rebels fail to capture Addis Ababa in 2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 44.99999999999999, "YES": 70}
0
4.274729221160932
True
play
YES
public
1643783658483
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 168.00297616411441}
{"creatorFee": 4.423374318588302, "platformFee": 0.4981985160920315, "liquidityFee": 2.989191096552189}
{"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663}
0
1672606923460
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Manifold
1672607051789
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
9
1650313887830
0
1
9
1670085363193
1672606933684
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0.9428195921511843
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{"NO": 1284.8174632058729, "YES": 121.53974441872202}
1
will-china-not-reopen-its-borders-i
1575.0864450594058
{"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 200}
Will China not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 200}
0
10.533596439478362
True
play
YES
public
1643783658950
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 89.44271909999156, "YES": 307.2458299147443}
{"creatorFee": 0.4708300532887796, "platformFee": 0.07494766371357742, "liquidityFee": 0.4496859822814645}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1672606859467
140.44968598228147
Manifold
1672607028834
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
9
1650314578499
0
1
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[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1662594405825}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529560647}]
["china", "free-money"]
1670574054574
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{"NO": 199.46082542520514, "YES": 174.71767334228713}
1
will-chinese-gdp-continue-to-grow-f
1191.75076721145
{"NO": 46, "YES": 235}
Will Chinese GDP continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 46, "YES": 235}
0
2.580543877897804
True
play
YES
public
1643783659457
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 170.53152201279386, "YES": 340.7051511204373}
{"creatorFee": 0.10915295746972407, "platformFee": 0.018192159578287348, "liquidityFee": 0.10915295746972407}
{"NO": 22.36067977499791, "YES": 97.46794344808963}
0
1672606828602
180.10915295746972
Manifold
1672607029434
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
19
1650314761882
0
1
18
[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1658529561239}]
["china"]
1670376407307
1672606838144
0.8
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{"NO": 7.676363490433928, "YES": 843.969135257995}
0
will-20-of-us-kids-between-05-and-5
971.8375482987369
{"NO": 35, "YES": 115}
Will 20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old get at least one COVID vaccine by year's end?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 35, "YES": 115}
0
4.281922712386097
True
play
NO
public
1643783659847
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 118.32159566199233, "YES": 220.2271554554524}
{"creatorFee": 1.8089474928536207, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 59.16079783099616, "YES": 80.6225774829855}
0
1672606793189
120
Manifold
1672607422935
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
9
1650314616831
0
1
8
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}]
["medicine"]
1669650113923
1672606798401
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0.3080445315567432
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{"NO": 133.5759486123473, "YES": 780.1661367277067}
0
will-who-designate-another-variant
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{"NO": 43.06410834668327, "YES": 245.4855450022162}
Will WHO designate another Variant Of Concern by the end of 2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 40, "YES": 246}
0
1.9884379131024261
True
play
NO
public
1643783660346
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 134.21904386436765, "YES": 364.63143224588435}
{"creatorFee": 0.5072936278228267, "platformFee": 0.08454893797047111, "liquidityFee": 0.5072936278228267}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1672606747846
300.50729362782283
Manifold
1710206842371
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
31
1650314660441
0
1
30
[{"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}]
["covid-d7a9361d772d"]
1672536292626
1672606753727
0.07
0.8273445426785723
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{"NO": 189.920939342134, "YES": 88.47803110086662}
1
will-12-billion-covid-shots-will-be
205
{"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 95}
Will 12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by 11/2022?
1656187297847
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 19.999999999999996, "YES": 95}
0
4.891253137916127
True
play
YES
public
1643783660871
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 89.44271909999156, "YES": 195.51214796017152}
{"creatorFee": 0.4743639471958371, "platformFee": 0.07906065786597286, "liquidityFee": 0.4743639471958371}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1656187297847
100.47436394719584
Manifold
1654801160039
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
4
1650314551188
0
1654801158493
0.9113940859992072
0.917539481846176
dHJ17fjRlssW2drucYeE
{"NO": 141.17070240199075, "YES": 118.23290725421889}
1
will-at-least-one-country-have-less
666.7125280066733
{"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 245.83041982811085}
Will at least one country have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by 11/2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 30.000000000000004, "YES": 250}
0
8.016390059734624
True
play
YES
public
1643783661222
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103321, "YES": 359.51148030094123}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756}
0
1672606703657
120
Manifold
1672607028846
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
8
1650314679781
0
1
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[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}]
["medicine"]
1670085371332
1672606708349
0.93
0.8455239230575093
QnZyPvSWk9WGAHHsEskq
{"NO": 4942.350356116034, "YES": 496.0583584445362}
1
will-a-psychedelic-drug-be-decrimin
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{"NO": 67.80703020559639, "YES": 227}
Will a psychedelic drug be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state in 2022?
1671036301513
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 72, "YES": 227}
0
1.2125158734628863
True
play
YES
public
1643783661662
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 181.85619519168762, "YES": 350.4296154296402}
{"creatorFee": 0.1926525892011769, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 86.60254037844386}
0
1671036301513
860
Manifold
1671028724759
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
1
59
1650314584714
0
55
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529486310}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601093}]
["politics-default", "medicine"]
1671028724568
1671000510699
0.98
0.4157984194389481
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{"NO": 674.7377019058547, "YES": 461.4036099751778}
1
will-ai-will-discover-a-new-drug-pr
3085.8462479180193
{"NO": 141, "YES": 692.3704595996895}
Will AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials in 2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 141, "YES": 692}
0
0.6681601558310835
True
play
YES
public
1643783662068
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 366.5869610338044, "YES": 858.3672960063982}
{"creatorFee": 0.659439408673713, "platformFee": 0.0747198819560366, "liquidityFee": 0.44831929173621954}
{"NO": 38.72983346207417, "YES": 92.19544457292888}
0
1672606581434
620.4483192917362
Manifold
1672606592585
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
52
1650314698752
0
1
47
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529531878}, {"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601093}, {"name": "Biotech", "slug": "biotech", "groupId": "zx0Pik5lD4jydGPxbLjB", "createdTime": 1691181933086}]
["science-default", "medicine", "biotech"]
1672551948751
1672606587847
False
0.51
0.8001396617987664
raPtsyJ4YgoxCihcGrYM
{"NO": 227.1366632502262, "YES": 124.00094523562163}
1
will-us-govt-not-renew-the-ban-on-f
1021.1112579571081
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
Will US govt not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
0
3.414824694828571
True
play
YES
public
1643783662558
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 143.87494569938158, "YES": 263.2489316217637}
{"creatorFee": 0.9644524192397315, "platformFee": 0.08301396063749646, "liquidityFee": 0.49808376382497865}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1672606647476
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Manifold
1672607028675
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
16
1650314780452
0
1
16
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}]
["medicine"]
1670085379340
1672606653031
0.88
0.14982595540840424
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{"NO": 131.93821508699108, "YES": 441.7773229667287}
0
will-the-biden-administration-set-t
1174.7984857007787
{"NO": 205.70798794494524, "YES": 70}
Will the Biden administration set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more in 2022?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 210, "YES": 70}
0
3.412601488549894
True
play
NO
public
1643783662940
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 336.3874138633, "YES": 167.33200530681512}
{"creatorFee": 0.916227620732977, "platformFee": 0.07354858508935394, "liquidityFee": 0.4412915105361236}
{"NO": 54.77225575051662, "YES": 83.66600265340756}
0
1696441141778
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Manifold
1672606720672
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
15
1650314734491
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14
[{"name": "The Life of Biden", "slug": "the-life-of-biden", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "pYwsGvORZFlcq7QrkI6n", "createdTime": 1660765856968}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676093071804}]
["the-life-of-biden", "please-resolve"]
1672551090991
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{"NO": 425.9346281016302, "YES": 249.43873525371353}
1
will-2022-will-be-warmer-than-2021
2176.566853192433
{"NO": 139.2754232882147, "YES": 541.3104201519905}
Will 2022 will be warmer than 2021?
1672552740000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 138, "YES": 542}
0
3.2956741362088064
True
play
YES
public
1643783663323
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 331.51898984273043, "YES": 706.6890535114524}
{"creatorFee": 5.739412043126967, "platformFee": 0.7158641830110974, "liquidityFee": 4.295185098066585}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1680209381489
264.29518509806655
Manifold
1680209378283
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
58
1650313829835
0
18
59
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1658529524045}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092564607}]
["science-default", "please-resolve"]
1672293305653
1680209374916
0.93
0.08345240930629187
vFvwiM7XgENSllgtWSN6
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.08345240930629187
will-kenneth-branaghs-belfast-will
1078.7907649562596
{"NO": 962.2092350437404, "YES": 105}
Will Kenneth Branagh's Belfast will win Best Picture?
1648487638223
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 963, "YES": 105}
0
4.657048023533879
True
play
NO
public
1643783663649
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1145.9740288798082, "YES": 221.63240625949544}
{"creatorFee": 4.168369401749618, "platformFee": 1.0420923504374044, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663}
0
1648487638223
100
Manifold
1643783663649
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
15
1715658847495
0
1648472941267
0.08345240930629187
0.9717801494692178
EcymyBUXKVZwScnTO1Lw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9717801494692178
will-norway-will-win-the-most-medal
4180.773952763318
{"NO": 121.14612079930254, "YES": 1414.079926437379}
Will Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1647894418905
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 72, "YES": 1460}
0
4.64523010503807
True
play
YES
public
1643783663960
Manifold
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts. Mar 21, 3:24pm: We have decided to resolve this early ourselves. (If on the very off case that the Vox team decides the outcome otherwise, we will reimburse traders.) Final results: https://olympics.com/beijing-2022/olympic-games/en/results/all-sports/medal-standings.htm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 274.69778078826704, "YES": 1611.9880132281703}
{"creatorFee": 3.0090418894672544, "platformFee": 0.7522604723668136, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.245553203367585, "YES": 77.45966692414834}
0
1647894418905
100
Manifold
1643783663960
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
37
1715657820506
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399215}]
["sports-default"]
1646468108794
0.9717801494692178
0.04442481408005341
mY4JODPfVDdWPstJwJpj
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.04442481408005341
will-the-new-york-times-use-either
2997.2768347608608
{"NO": 2117.150852182582, "YES": 429.57231305655705}
Will the New York Times use either the phrase "shape rotator" or "wordcel" this month?
1646114399000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 2143, "YES": 375}
0
4.633832074874761
True
play
NO
public
1643785034836
SG
Since I am too lazy to research this myself, this resolves YES if someone posts a comment with a link to a NYT article (or a tweet by https://twitter.com/nyt_first_said ) containing either the phrase "shape rotator" or the word "wordcel" before the end of February 2022. #fun #NYT
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2587.265219343777, "YES": 557.8549974567642}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1646149205308
100
SG
1643785034836
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
31
1715658646008
0
1
1644453467901
0.04442481408005341
0.09972281090951812
aw2M9QuY4o5rRfbyNtSL
{"NO": 144.5982880613497, "YES": 384.40821328150514}
0
will-joe-rogan-leave-spotify-this-y
829.2512178341715
{"NO": 110, "YES": 13.789225458826479}
Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify this year?
1672552799000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110, "YES": 15}
0
5.528023955337991
True
play
NO
public
1643785940487
SG
Resolves YES if multiple reputable news sources before the end of 2022 announce that Joe Rogan will quit streaming new content on Spotify. (The announcement alone is enough to trigger positive resolution, even if Rogan does not actually quit the platform until later. Both voluntary and involuntary quitting count.) #JoeRogan
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 211.07242600196042, "YES": 74.36429528415101}
{"creatorFee": 0.006559606728600984, "platformFee": 0.001093267788100164, "liquidityFee": 0.006559606728600984}
{"NO": 94.86832980505137, "YES": 31.622776601683793}
0
1672985826738
160.00655960672862
SG
1672550539105
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
8
1650255072220
0
2
8
1672550538933
0.04
0.026014183422807067
0S2vu1A4vpG8Rd2xkgY8
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.026014183422807067
will-tom-brady-be-mentioned-as-a-ca
747.7853465605966
{"NO": 601.2146534394034, "YES": 35}
Will Tom Brady be mentioned as a candidate for the head football coach job at the University of Michigan on the CBS sports website by the end of February?
1646104561427
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 607, "YES": 35}
0
4.680785480329584
True
play
NO
public
1643810126734
BCG
Feb 2, 3:12pm: #SPORTS
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 726.5755404215731, "YES": 118.74342087037917}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1646104561427
100
BruceGrugett
1643810126734
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
9
1715656869955
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529395119}]
["sports-default"]
0.026014183422807067
0.020588220334301733
Zr0eTohY3KvRLXzv07kG
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.020588220334301733
will-tesla-stock-price-be-over-1000
1240.1380433791885
{"NO": 942.8619566208115, "YES": 55}
Will Tesla stock price be over $1,000 by end of trading on March 1, 2022?
1646197199000
ZPIxR2mf3GSL9cY9zwi1zvVA8bh2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 943, "YES": 55}
0
4.659637118664809
True
play
NO
public
1643825239468
Thomas Youle
This market resolves to YES if Tesla's price is over $1,000 by the close of trading in New York on Tuesday, March 1st
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1086.5016685653438, "YES": 157.5277753286702}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1646226068477
100
ThomasYoule
1643825239468
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjljg_x_E_4Asn_ZvHALl1qVgFabq_yugsRotpXWw=s96-c
13
1715658345627
0
1
1643913770452
0.020588220334301733
0.12000253831322358
pw6MTF3eTGmtg9OOoUqv
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.12000253831322358
will-baseball-spring-training-camps
810.2440659933436
{"NO": 369.75593400665645, "YES": 90}
Will baseball spring training camps be open by the end of February?
1645884000000
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 380, "YES": 90}
0
4.700605245624654
True
play
NO
public
1643833855683
BCG
#sports Close date updated to 2022-02-26 9:00 am
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 525.0968535952815, "YES": 193.90719429665316}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1646104586910
100
BruceGrugett
1643833855683
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
8
1715658724106
0
1
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529408182}]
["sports-default"]
1645846323111
0.12000253831322358
0.06973470303912553
tEARTO4ReKcOTnuAlkNM
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.06973470303912553
will-jim-harbaugh-be-the-next-head
379
{"NO": 339, "YES": 40}
Will Jim Harbaugh be the next head coach for the Minnesota Vikings?
1662782399000
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 339, "YES": 40}
0
4.714309787559228
True
play
NO
public
1643834564446
BCG
#sports
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 461.9967532353447, "YES": 126.49110640673517}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414834, "YES": 63.245553203367585}
0
1643851861084
100
BruceGrugett
1643834564446
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
3
1715658810699
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529409012}]
["sports-default"]
1643850145929
0.06973470303912553
0.14
0fr3pHwgP2HPJ3SKs13H
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.14
what-day-will-us-covid-deaths-peak
1055.9685661479025
{"NO": 560.6652404231344, "YES": 129.36619342896324}
What day will US Covid deaths peak in February?
1646114340000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 586, "YES": 129}
0
4.676449447604076
True
play
MKT
public
1643834731745
James
This is a scalar market, which resolves to a percent in the interval [0-100] based on the fraction of the days through February when the day of peak US deaths occurs in February. E.g. If Feb 14th has more deaths than any other day in February, I will resolve to 14 / 28 = 50%. Data source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA Feb 25, 12:30pm: Clarification: This will resolve based on the most deaths in one day, not based on the day with the most 7-day average deaths. See this chart instead: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2022-01-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=New+per+day&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA Mar 1, 1:11pm: According to Our World in Data, the peak was Feb 4th. I'll be resolving to 4 / 28 = 14%. Thanks for playing!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 749.083045407649, "YES": 251.04632552021835}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 86.60254037844386, "YES": 50}
0
1646169244660
100
JamesGrugett
1643834731745
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
16
1715656878617
0
1
1646112434436
0.14
0.15391038655911932
qriBI6chrzFhAnEPai1x
{"NO": 105.19982173285575, "YES": 527.9707564390347}
0
will-a-webcomic-written-by-an-ai-ha
6356.886021410747
{"NO": 1525.2461962582013, "YES": 576.4700544893581}
Will a webcomic written by an AI have more than 25,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2022?
1672549140000
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 1549, "YES": 574}
0
4.545989856028609
True
play
NO
public
1643839454718
Duncn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a webcomic (a comic-strip or comic panel style of formatting, whether humorous or not) output by an AI be available on Twitter AND gain 25,000 or more followers by the end of 2022? If a current webcomic is taken over by an AI, it will have to gain 25,000 new followers to qualify. If an account includes both AI webcomics and also non-AI-webcomic content, the market will be decided on the most popular content, as judge by retweets. #AI #fun #webcomics #twitter", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1977.6709546518005, "YES": 967.6631872364078}
{"creatorFee": 21.807238755379878, "platformFee": 1.0695559203584522, "liquidityFee": 5.150749802486548}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1672588295325
140.05011784285387
Duncn
1671385253912
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
99
1650314773704
0
1
95
[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1659104133012}]
["internet"]
1671385253804
1659812420054
0.03
0.854318418314256
yHDCKOVICLF9fSd8Y6aw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.854318418314256
will-manifold-raise-the-commission
830
{"NO": 215, "YES": 615}
Will Manifold raise the commission market creators receive?
1644818399000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 215, "YES": 615}
0
4.667461086395355
True
play
YES
public
1643868116047
Manifold
Currently, creators on Manifold Markets earn 2% of the winnings pool after their market is resolved. We're considering raising that to 9% to provide an additional incentive to create markets (we're also considering halving our platform fee to 1% of winnings). Resolves YES if Manifold Markets raises the commission for market creators by any amount before February 14th. You can influence the outcome of this market by leaving a comment with your bet! #ManifoldMarkets Feb 3, 5:10pm: We decided to move forward with the commission increase! Creators now earn 9% of the winnings (not the gross amount), and our platform fee of 1% is now only charged winnings.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 354.96478698597696, "YES": 859.5929269136642}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 38.72983346207417, "YES": 92.19544457292888}
0
1643929892536
100
Manifold
1643868116047
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
5
1715658946604
0
1643926787541
0.854318418314256
0.8592472868414234
1Gkbb7LAmuQAW3jX0g2D
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8592472868414234
will-wordcel-or-shape-rotator-make
1423
{"NO": 166, "YES": 1257}
Will "Wordcel" or "Shape Rotator" make national news
1651640399000
w3y3yefIy7g1D1TxxZRHjG1BrDm1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 166, "YES": 1257}
0
4.647412634919958
True
play
YES
public
1643912737477
Lars Erik Schonander
@tszzl https://twitter.com/tszzl/status/1489299265134366721?s=20&t=fXsDIc-Flio-lfU0FAswdA orginally created a meme about wordcel / shape rotator that has taken Twitter by storm. With people like @pmarca and others tweeting about, the question is, how farther will this meme go? "National News": Defined as a CNN, Fox, NYT, FT, Bloomberg ect ect Feb 7, 12:52pm: Got a vice profile, should this count? The national news I listed were legacy news sources. https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkpqzb/ok-wtf-are-wordcels-and-shape-rotators Feb 7, 4:10pm: Resolving as YES because it appeared in The Atlantic https://t.co/mxE4z6nOi8
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 571.3842839980814, "YES": 1411.7538737329535}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644268263175
100
LarsErikSchonander
1673410031005
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjhyd4JlQ3ByXTEY5bYS5J5uSL87lCXZrJDqTheVw=s96-c
11
1715656892171
0
1
1673410029247
0.8592472868414234
0.4950372515531794
inUqqQ9DBfx1cSlpo1II
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4950372515531794
who-will-win-the-africa-cup-of-nati
101
{"NO": 51, "YES": 50}
Who will win the Africa Cup of Nations? Senegal or Egypt?
1644037199000
4R2drlx3ZjPmlcCCRdOAd9Y8e9a2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 51, "YES": 50}
0
2.77286189208386
True
play
CANCEL
public
1643931893532
Andrew Eaddy
The finals of the Africa Cup of Nations takes place on February 6th at 2:00pm ET. Who do you think will win? Sadio Mane and Senegal, or Mohammed Salah and Egypt?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 142.83206922816737, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1694302313383
100
AndrewEaddy
1690860952859
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwyIq9N1FxQzmkJ0kdUgGAPITXP1S_ZmbRvGCvR=s96-c
2
1650314724580
0
1
3
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779552305}]
["please-resolve"]
1690860950850
0.5
0.9041420118343195
XiNdrhdFw6uQCeM1o5N7
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9041420118343195
will-axie-infinitys-battles-v3-axie-b62683c6e078
550
{"NO": 89.99999999999999, "YES": 460}
Will Axie Infinity's Battles V3 "Axie: Origin" launch prior to the end of Q2 2022 (June 30)
1649310650205
8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.99999999999999, "YES": 460}
0
4.689173584665761
True
play
YES
public
1643933139855
BowTrix
This market will resolve to "YES" if a playable version of Axie: Origin is available at any date prior to June 30. If this does not occur, it will resolve to "NO".
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 201.24611797498105, "YES": 618.0614856144978}
{"creatorFee": 3.5999999999999996, "platformFee": 0.8999999999999999, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663}
0
1649310650205
100
BowTrix
1643933139855
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiOUBr3ZOXZh_RY9acEaMdEVJSPC4HHbyyP8Sh-Gw=s96-c
2
1715658302471
0
1648765816741
0.9041420118343195
0.4010110359558561
wfqqLuBW1jvzjPuKBR9V
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.4010110359558561
what-will-our-creator-commission-be
165
{"NO": 98, "YES": 67}
What will our creator commission be by the end of the weekend?
1644213599000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 98, "YES": 67}
0
4.787664358140534
True
play
MKT
public
1643941136004
Manifold
Background: We recently raised the commission on winnings that market creators receive to 9% in order to encourage the creation of more markets. Several people in the Discord argued this was too high and decreases market efficiency ( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3iQryHA4tnAvPZEv/limits-of-current-us-prediction-markets-predictit-case-study ). Help us figure out what fee to charge! You can influence the outcome this market by leaving a comment with your bet. Resolves PROB p where p = the commission on winnings that market creators on this platform receive at the start of Feb. 7th in percentage points multiplied by ten, 2022. I.e. if we change the commission to 4%, this will pay out at PROB 40%. Feb 3, 8:49pm: I've just lowered the creator fee to 4%. We're still open to being argued higher or lower, if you can present a compelling case.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 205.09509989270833, "YES": 167.81239525136394}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1644267456373
100
Manifold
1643941136004
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
7
1715658889085
0
1643941348177
0.4010110359558561
0.2934841089936511
LRoCx81xfMt0XwMFvCIm
{"NO": 99.03027036002017, "YES": 375.58295092697284}
0
will-iran-agree-to-a-plan-limiting
639.049065468288
{"NO": 46.7, "YES": 76.15927897436269}
Will Iran agree to a plan limiting their nuclear program before 2023?
1672531199000
tOfV1LaPbVYJnxUwCznlen6EUlG2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 46.7, "YES": 77.410010110111}
0
2.7125510697612674
True
play
NO
public
1643981801991
Global Guessing
This market resolves positively if Iran either returns to the previous agreement outlined by JCPOA or agrees to a new plan which places limits on their nuclear program even if the terms are less extreme (or more extreme) than the JCPOA, which, according to the latest reporting by the Wall Street Journal, is the current thinking of the Biden Administration: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sees-irans-nuclear-program-as-too-advanced-to-restore-key-goal-of-2015-pact-11643882545.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 137.5027272456805, "YES": 175.38317543302955}
{"creatorFee": 1.611940739975502, "platformFee": 0.27282589378174465, "liquidityFee": 1.5619114945455694}
{"NO": 81.8535277187245, "YES": 57.445626465380286}
0
1698300147740
181.56191149454557
gg
1698300277656
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhjCCFED8mTCFl03v969qF7lqIbD4PE15-SiBU9=s96-c
21
1650314542795
0
60
21
[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1658986125146}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525588}]
["nuclear-risk", "iran"]
1672291951089
1698300275852
0.1
0.16881949170879537
vgHRygpZ2yd1buQ4FGQf
{"NO": 188.07883459752807, "YES": 694.00301322959}
0
will-israel-and-saudi-arabia-establ
2100.1745661289033
{"NO": 45, "YES": 22}
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations before 2023?
1672531199000
tOfV1LaPbVYJnxUwCznlen6EUlG2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 45, "YES": 22}
0
2.687566087171726
True
play
NO
public
1643982255838
Global Guessing
Under the Abraham Accords, Israel normalized relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Since then, there has been specualation about further normalization of relations between other countries and Israel happening, including with Saudi Arabia. Earlier this year, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said that "while Israel hopes to expand on the Abraham Accords and establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, no deals are imminent." (Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-israel-hopes-for-ties-with-indonesia-saudi-arabia-but-no-deal-imminent/) This question resolves positively if Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations before 2023.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 143.76717288727633, "YES": 84.97058314499202}
{"creatorFee": 1.0780042311904938, "platformFee": 0.024664401083304796, "liquidityFee": 0.14798640649982875}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1675498155074
240.14798640649983
gg
1675498169494
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhjCCFED8mTCFl03v969qF7lqIbD4PE15-SiBU9=s96-c
16
1650314801441
0
7
18
[{"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1670829203042}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670829195044}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTime": 1659859269701}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673669962139}]
["arabisraeli-conflict", "israel", "israeli-politics", "please-resolve"]
1672484854007
1675498167202
0.05
0.9216654439301265
f3ZxQTezqC8r8v5aKrWn
{"NO": 416.6147298276309, "YES": 88.92158132423438}
1
will-aaron-rodgers-return-with-the
2419.925573373835
{"NO": 73.43371527047492, "YES": 424.30326865302027}
Will Aaron Rodgers return with the Green Bay Packers in 2022?
1662955199000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 70, "YES": 444}
0
9.536325691931424
True
play
YES
public
1643989462388
David Glidden
This market resolve to "YES" if Aaron Rodgers is rostered by the Green Bay Packers at the start of their Week 1 game of the 2022 regular season and "NO" if not.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 573.8375222569164}
{"creatorFee": 3.6743362919364446, "platformFee": 0.19592870969270226, "liquidityFee": 0.17855389547074893}
{"NO": 83.66600265340756, "YES": 54.77225575051661}
0
1662979145023
100.17855389547074
dglid
1662918602773
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
22
1650314696422
0
1
22
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529405926}]
["sports-default"]
1662918601532
1648126220355
0.9821825780639821
0.25
101Fop0xAgDkMi4q24dx
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.25
how-many-total-medals-will-the-usa
422
{"NO": 82.83417344481205, "YES": 37.16582655518795}
How many total medals will the USA win at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1645505999000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 88, "YES": 32}
0
4.819494920240895
True
play
MKT
public
1643991602057
David Glidden
This market resolves to the number of total medals the USA wins at the 2022 Winter Olympics as determined by FiveThirtyEight's medal tracker: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/winter-olympics-medal-count For example, if the USA wins 32 medals (FiveThirtyEight's pre-games projection), the market will resolve at 32%. If the USA wins 100 or more medals, the market will resolve at 100%.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 188.67962264113208, "YES": 113.13708498984761}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 82.4621125123532, "YES": 56.568542494923804}
0
1645373212384
100
dglid
1643991602057
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
4
1715656882453
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529395399}]
["sports-default"]
0.25
0.9796466561589324
WTBUf2yZCHItlM0HdDuu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9796466561589324
will-nathan-chen-win-gold-in-the-me
1591
{"NO": 120, "YES": 1471}
Will Nathan Chen win gold in the men's singles figure skating event at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1644641999000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 120, "YES": 1471}
0
4.644251618426552
True
play
YES
public
1643992698369
David Glidden
This market resolves to "YES" if USA's Nathan Chen wins the gold medal in the men's singles figure skating event at the 2022 Winter Olympics, and "NO" if not. Feb 10, 7:01am: ah this was a market I created before the close time but was fixed. I had originally set the close time to 1am ET Jan 11th but it didn’t save and instead put 11:59pm ET I think. I reported this and it has since been fixed. Sorry about that, but enjoy your winnings!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 241.24676163629636, "YES": 1673.702781260759}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1644494161783
100
dglid
1643992698369
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
6
1715658264434
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529403828}]
["sports-default"]
1644475115104
0.9796466561589324
0.30104119511091
FbND7UoOgHh9bU2s7ijP
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.30104119511091
will-shaun-white-win-gold-in-the-me
135
{"NO": 95, "YES": 40}
Will Shaun White win gold in the men's snowboard halfpipe event at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
1644728399000
9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 95, "YES": 40}
0
4.807651632480852
True
play
CANCEL
public
1643993566954
David Glidden
This market resolves to "YES" if USA's Shaun White wins the gold medal in the men's snowboard halfpipe event at the 2022 Winter Olympics, and "NO" if not. Feb 10, 7:21am: This market will unintentionally end after the result is known due to a bug at the time of creation that's since been fixed (see edit on https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-nathan-chen-win-gold-in-the-me), so I'm going to resolve this "N/A" and have created a new market with the correct time: https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-shaun-white-win-gold-in-the-me-abea3405911c
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 196.468827043885, "YES": 128.93796958227628}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 92.19544457292888, "YES": 38.72983346207417}
0
1644495891547
100
dglid
1643993566954
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c
3
1715657849649
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529399620}]
["sports-default"]
0.30104119511091
0.05658526998312419
G1TPtuqTYyFmulTqWoaM
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.05658526998312419
will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo
6197.49120099693
{"NO": 3337.5995892930787, "YES": 760.9092097099909}
Will total crypto market cap be above $2T on April 15th, according to coinmarketcap?
1649973540000
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 3352, "YES": 761}
0
4.6269577516131895
True
play
NO
public
1644000821582
Tim P
At some random time on April 15th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly. Close date updated to 2022-04-15 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-04-14 11:59 pm
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 4077.9922313644524, "YES": 998.7269377749757}
{"creatorFee": 30.436368388399625, "platformFee": 7.609092097099906, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 67.08203932499369, "YES": 74.16198487095663}
0
1650035717684
100
TimP
1644000821582
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c
23
1715657855524
0
1
1649141869835
0.05658526998312419
0.17033925817709603
ecfSGv04ERdaFs1mXna7
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.17033925817709603
if-i-roll-a-six-sided-die-on-feb-18
492
{"NO": 100.9, "YES": 21.1}
If I roll a six sided die on Feb. 18. , will it land on 1 ?
1645228799000
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100.9, "YES": 21.1}
0
4.8178320293382635
True
play
YES
public
1644001338938
Tim P
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 202.21028658305195, "YES": 91.62423260251624}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 91.10433579144299, "YES": 41.23105625617661}
0
1645220736787
100
TimP
1644001338938
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c
13
1715658491260
0
1645210394200
0.17033925817709603
0.05919107766729374
VLF9ktvv5BIYI5luJcDP
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.05919107766729374
will-the-impactful-forecasting-priz
510
{"NO": 455, "YES": 55}
Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get at least 100 total entries?
1647141718680
skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 455, "YES": 55}
0
4.69383934725288
True
play
NO
public
1644005519624
Eli Lifland
See https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated. Entries from the same person/group on 2 questions count as two separate entries. Feb 4, 3:12pm: (To clarify, the 2 is just an example, and this is meant to clarify how this will work for arbitrary N) Mar 2, 3:08pm: There are 2 unique submitters thus far who have submitted 5 total entries. Unsure to what extent people are waiting until the last minute (deadline is March 11), but if you are reading this and are interested the EV of entering seems pretty high! Mar 4, 11:04am: Now 9 total entries from 5 submitters with a week to go
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 591.671361483721, "YES": 148.4082207965583}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1647141718680
100
EliLifland
1644005519624
0
https://firebasestorage.…837-6a566c7be4f3
5
1715658244864
0
0.05919107766729374
0.322935189996186
REFCDXUs5lCmE6s5s2G4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.322935189996186
will-the-impactful-forecasting-priz-8792c905ed4e
388.0450587938332
{"NO": 204.69021219345018, "YES": 131.2647290127166}
Will the Impactful Forecasting Prize get entries from at least 25 unique people/groups?
1647098197213
skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 205, "YES": 124}
0
4.723579653422668
True
play
NO
public
1644005705848
Eli Lifland
See https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ/impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated. If the same person/group submits writeups on multiple questions, this still only raises the count for this question by 1. Mar 2, 3:07pm: There are 2 unique submitters thus far who have submitted 5 total entries. Unsure to what extent people are waiting until the last minute (deadline is March 11), but if you are reading this and are interested the EV of entering seems pretty high! Close date updated to 2022-03-12 11:59 pm Mar 4, 11:03am: Now 9 total entries from 5 submitters with a week to go
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 358.7209371671416, "YES": 247.74180107523236}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 70.71067811865476, "YES": 70.71067811865476}
0
1647098197213
100
EliLifland
1644005705848
0
https://firebasestorage.…837-6a566c7be4f3
6
1715658166826
0
1646505627744
0.322935189996186
0.01763190257192629
lSJ1cffjYsWU8O1bIRQU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0
the-bored-ape-yacht-club-racism-sca
573
{"NO": 548.8, "YES": 24.2}
The Bored Ape Yacht Club racism scandal will get mainstream media coverage AND the NFT market will crash as a result.
1644641999000
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 548.8, "YES": 24.2}
0
10.019149040297453
True
play
NO
public
1644010935630
Mosiah
mainstream media coverage = major east coast print media and/or CNN NFT market crash = 50% or greater draw down in floor prices for a basket of NFT floor prices basket of NFT floor prices = the current top 10 NFT projects on nftpricefloor.com: [Bored Ape YC, CryptoPunks, Mutant Ape YC, CLONE X, Doodles, VeeFriends, Cool Cats, Autoglyphs, Azuki, CyberKongs Genesis] MARKET CLOSING March 4, 2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 667.0404785318503, "YES": 89.36442245099556}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 88.31760866327846, "YES": 46.9041575982343}
0
1660937628700
100
Mosiah
1660874846312
0
https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617
10
1650314739201
0
1
1660874845892
0.01763190257192629
0.9825372563509278
Dcz71dTqx5rxOFhs5PhB
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9825372563509278
will-the-los-angeles-rams-win-super
5209.414038960758
{"NO": 401.0986418607205, "YES": 2735.4873191785214}
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LVI?
1644901199000
bb0UlzmaxAMGB5sgkqaYQAfAnaG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 270.70000000000005, "YES": 2751.3}
0
4.6304484326383495
True
play
YES
public
1644013373317
Straw
#sports
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 427.7040723133377, "YES": 3208.2016628826345}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 60.82762530298219, "YES": 79.37253933193772}
0
1644845445053
100
Straw
1644013373317
0
https://firebasestorage.…ba5-8bcc55f539df
26
1715657793327
0
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1658529398631}]
["sports-default"]
1644507751968
0.9825372563509278
0.9510382285519615
tIBeWRlqqROguQ6li4jA
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9510382285519615
will-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-wo
2860.8948612366
{"NO": 100.6, "YES": 1026.5051387634003}
Will Elon Musk have a higher net worth than Jeff Bezos on February 20, 2022?
1645333199000
bb0UlzmaxAMGB5sgkqaYQAfAnaG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100.6, "YES": 1043.4}
0
4.65504262717341
True
play
YES
public
1644013962702
Straw
To be determined by the Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires).
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 271.5253211028393, "YES": 1196.6875204411317}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 24.49489742783179, "YES": 96.95359714832658}
0
1645407652764
100
Straw
1710451954464
0
https://firebasestorage.…ba5-8bcc55f539df
18
1715658813432
0
1
[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
1644491555932
0.9510382285519615
0.22717783840312447
b6ZWvT0J5I7hgmgNUgSP
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.22717783840312447
will-a-bored-ape-appear-during-a-su
625.1595780419381
{"NO": 374.3, "YES": 176.54042195806193}
Will a Bored Ape appear during a Super Bowl LVI commercial or Halftime Show?
1644814799000
bb0UlzmaxAMGB5sgkqaYQAfAnaG3
cpmm-1
{"NO": 374.3, "YES": 163.7}
0
4.68908148220704
True
play
YES
public
1644015252987
Straw
#crypto
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th
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{"NO": 1949.8, "YES": 100.2}
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James Dillard
This market will resolve to no if AI has not wiped out humanity by the year 2100. If AI has wiped out humanity, the market resolution is on them. I made this bet with @tomchivers on the Browser Bets YouTube show. You can join in here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak6HxFREPyc&t=1s
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[TEST] End date test
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Austin
Feb 9, 10:41am: Lolk, this still works? Feb 9, 10:41am: Lolk, this still works? heyo Feb 9, 10:41am: Hm, not ideal I guess. Should reset. Feb 9, 10:42am: sup Feb 9, 10:42am: lolk. but guess the time isn't changing Feb 9, 10:42am: Is this adding a new line each time? Is that desirable? Feb 9, 10:42am: How about now?
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1644015941399
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1644015927778
0
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will-manifold-markets-allow-free-co
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{"NO": 658.0031747992037, "YES": 108.0943814783194}
Will Manifold Markets allow "free comments" by the end of March?
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{"NO": 681.3, "YES": 101.69999999999999}
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Straw
Given the plethora of M$1 trades on some markets, a way to comment without having to trade could be useful. This market will resolve to "YES" if Manifold allows users to comment without having to place a trade. This market also serves as a way to signify your desire for this feature.
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will-david-test-positive-for-covid
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Will David test positive for COVID in February 2022?
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{"NO": 296, "YES": 11}
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David Glidden
This market resolves to “YES” if I test positive for COVID-19 in the month of February 2022. Potentially useful info: - 32-year-old male living in 2br apt in NW Washington, DC with partner, no kids or pets. - J&J single dose + Moderna booster. - Have not contracted COVID to my knowledge or previously tested positive for COVID. Partner had mild COVID in August 2021. - Fully work from home. - No comorbidities/existing health conditions. Above average health and active lifecycle. - Planned social activities: long weekend trip with extended family of 7 via train to NYC (Airbnb, shopping, museums), hosting 4-person Super Bowl Party, hosting 6-person and 4-person family dinners, potential outdoor dining with one or two friends at a time, grocery and other occasional store runs. All friends and family are double-vaxxed and usually boosted. - I mask, usually with KN95, at any indoor public location except when eating out (2-5x per month). - Test would likely only be taken because of COVID-like symptoms or known exposure. Likely would be conducted through at-home rapid test (I have a few on hand already). - Get in touch on Manifold Discord for any additional details you’d like me to add.
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This market will resolve to PROB.
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Duncn
I will enter the % chance listed, and we'll see who can make a profit. #fun #shortterm #mete #experimental
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Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District?
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Austin
The Effective Altruism movement usually stays out of politics, but here is a recent, highly-upvoted endorsement of donating to Carrick Flynn as a high-impact area: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qi9nnrmjwNbBqWbNT/the-best-usd5-800-i-ve-ever-donated-to-pandemic-prevention Further reading: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 #EffectiveAltruism #Politics
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cpmm-1
{"NO": 1441, "YES": 837}
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1644103005345
Austin
The Effective Altruism movement usually stays out of politics, but here is a recent, highly-upvoted endorsement of donating to Carrick Flynn as a high-impact area: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qi9nnrmjwNbBqWbNT/the-best-usd5-800-i-ve-ever-donated-to-pandemic-prevention Further reading: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 #EffectiveAltruism #Politics
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Will gross world product in the year 2030 be at least 1 quadrillion USD?
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{"NO": 70, "YES": 5}
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1644104234742
Elliot Olds
USD will be measured in 2022 US dollars.
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Hobbes
Market closes to resolved on Feb 28, 2022 23:59 IST Feb 26, 6:48pm: Do note that it the resolution time is in IST Feb 28, 2:38pm: Please don't post low quality posts to r/slatestarcodex in order to game this market. High quality posts that resemble the median post on r/slatestarcodex is fair play.
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1644130031989
Eric Jorgenson
This market resolves to YES if a consensus of news articles from before Jan 1, 2023 report that Joe Rogan's exclusive contract with Spotify is still in effect Feb 5, 10:47pm: EDIT: resolution criteria should read "is NOT still in effect", instead of "is still in effect". This will be the resolution criteria. Feb 7, 8:38pm: EDIT: Joe ROGAN Feb 7, 8:38pm: sorry i was drunk
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{"NO": 820, "YES": 35}
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1644169409497
Peter Hroššo
DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode . Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2022 they can beat the best human competitors? Feb 6, 6:44pm: #AI Feb 6, 6:44pm: #DeepMind
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{"NO": 645, "YES": 136}
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1644169645550
Peter Hroššo
DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode . Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2023 they can beat the best human competitors? #AI #DeepMind
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Will I end up being impressed by Manifold Markets?
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{"NO": 25, "YES": 25}
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1644182347218
Spencer -
test post please ignore #personal #meta #test
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Will this question resolve yes?
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{"NO": 57, "YES": 56}
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Ferruginous Duck
Self-explanatory, makes complete sense.
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Will this question resolve no?
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{"NO": 446, "YES": 576}
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1644272931193
Ferruginous Duck
Take it up with Godel or someone. Feb 14, 8:25pm: I will resolve this question in accordance with the most convincing argument I’m presented with. Feb 22, 3:43pm: I think I buy the argument that resolving at 0% is correct. If I resolve it at 0%, there really is a 0% chance the question resolves ‘no’. Can anyone rebut this? Feb 24, 5:16pm: I’m pulling the trigger. Close date updated to 2022-02-24 11:59 pm
BINARY
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Will Pierre Poilievre become the leader of the Canada conservative party before 2023?
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resolve as the result of the leadership race if the outcome is known before 2023
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Will we be able to see how many users Manifold Markets has by March?
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Will there be a public (e.g., visible to all logged in users), easy to access (e.g., equivalent to the leaderboards), and updated automatically on-site count of all users by the end of February? Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm
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Will at least ten users trade on this market within the next week?
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Conflux
This market resolves to "YES" if, by 11:59 PM at February 14, 2022 PST, at least ten separate users have traded on this market. I think this site is cool, so I wanted to do a prediction market, and this seems like one whose dynamics are kind of interesting! If I do another market it'll probably be about a real thing though. Feb 9, 5:50pm: I probably should've resolved this yesterday, but it's now pretty clear that even if you just count people who comment, over ten people have traded on this market. So I'm resolving it! This was fun. No idea why someone bought M$1000 of no! I think it's kind of funny. However...I'm not exactly sure how Manifold Markets' algorithm works, and I recognize there are complicated delicate balances of incentives to stop the system from being exploitable, but I just lost M$36 for creating this market, and would've gained money for incorrectly resolving it as "no." I think this provides a perverse incentive for resolving markets wrong / not creating markets. Feb 9, 6:14pm: Actually, maybe I did gain currency?
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Will the US Men's soccer team qualify for the 2022 World Cup?
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This question will resolve as soon as the US Mens National soccer team qualifies or fails to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. The final set of qualification matches take place from March 24 - March 30 and will determine 3 of the CONCACAF teams that will qualify for the World Cup. A 4th team will qualify via a single play-in match on June 13th or 14th in Qatar. More info here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup-qualifying-concacaf/story/4584839/2022-world-cup-how-united-statesmexico-and-canada-can-qualify
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