CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

uSmaNfN6JWXDRjxoZ5Xj

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What will be Aaron Judge's home run total be in the 2022 regular season?

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cpmm-multi-1

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4.653757274993925

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BCG

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ANYONE

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["sports-default"]

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will-the-sp-500-end-the-year-more-t

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Will the S&P 500 end the year more than 20% below its all-time high?

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cpmm-1

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1.2644493048658143

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play

YES

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1659707159775

Treldman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last trading day of 2022 is December 30. The S&P 500’s all-time intraday high is 4818.62.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet resolves as YES if the S&P 500 closes on December 30, 2022, be...

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Will John Fetterman win the Pennsylvania Senate race?

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0.445339464235313

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YES

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1659708064255

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Fetterman wins. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph",...

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1667998105336

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[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1659720400167}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1659708064669...

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156

Will I have a 5+ min conversation with Sam Altman this weekend?

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cpmm-1

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2.912173283428804

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YES

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Austin

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BINARY

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Austin

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[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1659713044764}]

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will-a-usbased-corporation-acquire

2287.2920280550497

Will a US-based corporation acquire a controlling stake in the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) by the end of 2023?

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cpmm-1

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2.0736067507884157

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play

NO

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1659717754395

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a US-based corporation acquires a controlling interest in TSMC by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

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["global-macro", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

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{"NO": 166.41309432626343, "YES": 137.08392535271494}

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how-many-harvard-students-will-work

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How many Harvard students will work at an EA organization in 2023?

1704095940000

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cpmm-1

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2.8991597338678794

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play

CANCEL

public

1659718785389

Tom

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number of Harvard University students who work at an organization affiliated with the Effective Altruism movement in 2023. The student must be currently enrolled, and must either be employed by an EA organization or do contract work for an EA o...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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toms

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116

How many former Harvard students will begin working at an EA organization in 2023?

1704095940000

080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1

cpmm-1

0.12153595489217019

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play

CANCEL

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number of former Harvard University students who start working at an organization affiliated with the Effective Altruism movement in 2023. They must be employed by an EA organization or do contract work for an EA organization over a period of a...

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toms

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How many Harvard students will attend EAG DC?

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cpmm-1

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4.01179665336838

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play

MKT

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1659719598418

Tom

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number of current Harvard University students who attend at least 1 day of EA Global: DC 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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toms

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how-many-posts-by-harvard-students

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How many posts by Harvard students will get at least 50 karma on LessWrong or the EA Forum during the fall semester?

1672559940000

080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1

cpmm-1

0

2.8766345364846684

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MKT

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1659720208015

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number of posts on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "lesswrong.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://lesswrong.com", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indi...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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toms

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{"NO": 69.66464100710425, "YES": 424.57105812216093}

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341.73867480722373

How many 1-on-1s will be booked through Harvard EA's central Calendly in Fall 2022?

1672559940000

080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1

cpmm-1

0

4.715031401971514

True

play

MKT

public

1659720800947

Tom

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Harvard University Effective Altruism group will be using a Calendly round robin to coordinate 1-on-1s between newer and more experienced Harvard EA members starting in Fall 2022. This question will resolve to the number of 1-on-1s that happen ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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toms

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how-many-nonunique-people-will-atte

146.01773851329187

How many non-unique people will attend Harvard EA socials during Fall 2022?

1672559940000

080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1

cpmm-1

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2.3521255055627326

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1659721292413

Tom

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number of non-unique Harvard students who attend socials run by Harvard University Effective Altruism in the second half of 2022, where non-unique means that a person who attends multiple socials is counted multiple times. This number will be d...

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188.4139311528898

What company will Amazon buy next for at least $1B?

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cpmm-multi-1

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Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: In the last few weeks, Amazon announced that it's buying OneMedical for $3.9B and iRobot for $1.7B. What will be the next major acquisition Amazon announces?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [...

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{"NO": 117.09717185808067, "YES": 158.86316754230745}

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59.15009888907987

Paired Market: In what year will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

10413896340000

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cpmm-1

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1659721716225

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a paired market. When this market resolves, its twin will also resolve to the most likely way in which PR will no longer be a territory. As usual, a vote for HIGHER is implicitly a vote for NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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["us-politics", "olivia", "ancient-markets"]

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paired-market-in-what-way-will-puer

288

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

10413896340000

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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play

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1659721727709

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve at the same time as its paired market to the way in which Puerto Rico is no longer a US Territory.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/LivInTheLookingGlass/pai...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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500

LivInTheLookingGlass

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will-congress-vote-to-disqualify-do

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Will Congress vote to disqualify Donald Trump from running for president ever again?

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cpmm-1

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Brian T. Edwards

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bmxU706391XpRGyb6sZn

which-supreme-court-justice-will-re

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Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?

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cpmm-multi-1

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10.586609649448985

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1659725771872

Brian T. Edwards

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BTE

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500

How many total subscribers will A Happier World have before december 2022?

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cpmm-1

0

4.196901771535105

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Jeroen Willems

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Will Max Clarke believe with ≥95% confidence that there exists AGI by Jul 2025?

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Will US regulators instruct Manifold to alter or cease activity before the end of 2024?

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John Beshir

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How many book pages will I read during quarantine?

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What percentage of the vote will Republican Brad Finstad receive in the special election for Minnesota's First Congressional District?

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will-any-executives-from-china-ever

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Will any executives from China Evergrande face criminal charges in China before the end of 2022?

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cpmm-1

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3.1665007014858086

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Brian T. Edwards

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Will Matthew McConaughey ever be a candidate for President of the United States?

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Brian T. Edwards

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Brian T. Edwards

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Which of the following companies will have the largest change in market cap (up or down as a percentage of company value on August 5) at the end of 2022?

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4.698696947772273

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Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Caps as of market close on 8/5/2022:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alphabet - $1.54T", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple - $2.66T", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"...

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1672538942602

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Scott Lawrence

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Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market res...

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Karen Bass is elected. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

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will-ted-cruz-be-a-candidate-for-th

10415.149835033111

Will Ted Cruz be a candidate for the GOP nomination for President of the United States in 2024?

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4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

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10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1659785538865

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Cruz announces and files paperwork that he intends to be a candidate in the GOP primary for President of the United States in the 2024. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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1705541930724

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which-company-will-have-a-greater-m

1345.469714622533

Will Apple or Microsoft have a greater market cap at the end of 2025?

1767243540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

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1659786091450

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the company with the higher market cap as of the final trading day of 2025. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of today (8/6/2022) Apple has a market cap of $2.66Trilion and Micro...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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0.10017090428661372

1718752577035

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2EsvHIrXiBJeKQg0pkqK

which-company-will-have-a-greater-m-c56be97b1c7e

362.399324731498

Will Amazon or Alphabet have a greater market cap at the end of 2024?

1767243540000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1659791687506

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves for the company with the higher market cap on the last trading day of 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of 8/6/22 Amazon has a market cap of $1.43T and Alphabet has a market ca...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.42701300095825656, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1000

BTE

1720053161621

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DISABLED

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1718116934876

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5fsLe4m4wVQuaQ0BJt34

which-price-will-bitcoin-hit-first

9820.337800170495

Which price will Bitcoin hit first?

1667939317957

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.624186495438881

True

play

10ab0c58b031

public

1659799803087

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when one of the two prices is achieved according to Crytowatch. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 6, 2:21pm: Priced in USD.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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880

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["crypto-prices", "global-macro", "crypto-speculation"]

1667936832272

1667939294237

{"10ab0c58b031": 100}

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0.22213216583493228

3AZC3JaNQAluO1KhcaFG

{"NO": 90.72621636764389, "YES": 837.7007743885574}

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will-tesla-lose-its-license-to-sell

3378.811994444595

Will Tesla lose its license to sell cars in California for misleading the California DMV about its Full Self Driving technology?

1672539987927

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.4897954021676285

True

play

NO

public

1659800990064

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the California Department of Motor Vehicles suspends Tesla’s license to sell cars in the state. Resolves NO if other remedies are pursued by the state. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "pa...

BINARY

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1672539987927

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28

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26

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5"}]

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0.5

1672539981289

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0.4883108878989804

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how-many-named-tropical-storms-will

811.1084876417807

How many named tropical storms will there be this hurricane season?

1669955301932

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.1386464932912933

True

play

MKT

public

1659808576698

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of named storms according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at the end of the fall hurricane season (August - November). As of 8/6/22 there have been 3 named storms. NOAA predicts there could be as man...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1669955301932

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{"NO": 876.7067225120406, "YES": 2740.1704842529484}

0.012806124802727144

will-spinlaunch-have-a-successful-l

5230.450683151894

Will SpinLaunch have a successful launch by market close?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.351040420616826

False

basic

public

1659813308972

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES upon any successful launch into a suborbital trajectory, conditional on it being capable to boost to orbit (regardless of if that succeeds). Resolves NO on close", "type": "text"}]}]}

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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0

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["space", "olivia", "free-money"]

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1668076623306

0.21348530131751298

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{"NO": 400.6206871326365, "YES": 7100.816441473692}

0

will-a-democratic-politician-be-ind

13369.212021715939

Will a notable Democratic politician be indicted on child sex abuse or child trafficking charges before the end of 2023?

1704095940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0.09889630226465243

1.0615696729570545

True

play

NO

public

1659817797511

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Send this to your Qanon family members!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only national household names and current or former governors or members of congress", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

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1704098146494

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ahalekelly

1706677444760

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48

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19

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0.5

1704089466667

1706677442399

0.02

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0.04419155172171905

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{"NO": 1515.993313339136, "YES": 11726.915537467168}

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will-the-us-government-confirm-the

98856.56812783946

Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens on Earth before the end of 2023?

1704095940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

1.4543851369749294

True

basic

NO

public

1659818253346

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if any US government agency provides an official statement that extraterrestrial intelligent life exists on earth. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 11, 12:39am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will th...

BINARY

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1704096430339

1725

ahalekelly

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were-any-of-the-covid19-vaccines-de

45927.83181700957

Were any of the COVID-19 vaccines designed to cause infertility, contain microchips, or have any other secret effects?

1704095940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

1.1624637606546435

True

play

NO

public

1659819291230

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if this is reported by Reuters, the BBC, NPR, or the AP, opinion sections excluded, before the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not be trading this market due t...

BINARY

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1704097013869

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ahalekelly

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will-my-survey-show-taking-estrogen

386.6266055634801

Will my survey show taking estrogen impacts sexual submissiveness?

1660460340000

9AkFpivhbtXhTapLVJ2UCjuziLy2

cpmm-1

0

1.7126534331820427

True

play

MKT

public

1659825248703

Aella

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I asked trans people on HRT how their sexual preferences shifted since taking HRT. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I asked if \"being sexually submissive\" was something that became more or l...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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1660537750497

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Aella

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1660444860881

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vZF47LEVfEj8d9oBMDiu

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24

What will be the population of Prospera in December 2023?

1682931723775

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.952739542578978

True

play

CANCEL

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1659829760024

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People physically living in Prospera, not e-residents or number of citizens.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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1682931723775

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ahalekelly

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["ancient-markets"]

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will-there-be-a-serious-incident-in

2244.4325289608687

Will there be a serious incident involving leakage of radioactive material at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during 2022?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.3112739861904132

True

play

NO

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1659835699954

Keepcalmandchill

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BINARY

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Keepcalmandchill

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1672080726566

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will-100-palestinians-be-killed-in

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Will >= 100 Palestinians be killed in the ongoing IDF operation in Gaza before the end of August?

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cpmm-1

0

3.7684987082124457

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1659836083123

Brian T. Edwards

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will-a-person-ive-referred-to-manif

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Will a person I’ve referred to Manifold Markets successfully refer at least one other person within a week?

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cpmm-1

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will-global-inflation-be-lower-in-2

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Will writing in the traditional East Asian writing direction be recommended as the best exercise for posture by at least fifteen physical therapists by 2024?

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will-the-city-of-mountain-view-make

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Will the city of Mountain View make the downtown district on Castro St. permanently walkable?

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2.8127684872098726

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Rachel Shu

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will-manifold-solve-this-puzzlemark

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Will Manifold solve this puzzle-market in one week?

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cpmm-multi-1

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keri

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will-manifold-reach-500-daily-users

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Will Manifold reach 500 daily users by 2024?

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3.7488460709923412

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1659851526393

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Keepcalmandchill

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will-my-husbands-semen-analysis-tes

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Will my husband's semen analysis test come back with healthy/normal sperm?

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2.9671735394992442

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Em

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will-my-war-on-backpacks-succeed

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1659851986238

Enopoletus Harding

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will-deshaun-watson-be-suspended-fo

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Will Deshaun Watson be suspended for more than 6 games of the 2022 regular NFL season?

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0

3.447458597577836

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1659853201034

David Glidden

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the NFL announces that Deshaun Watson is suspended for more than the initial announcement of a 6-game suspension in the 2022-2023 NFL regular season. Will resolve once an announcement is made without any further ability to appeal.",...

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dglid

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will-the-us-and-taiwan-enter-into-a

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Brian T. Edwards

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if-the-us-and-taiwan-agree-in-princ

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If the US and Taiwan agree in principle to a new bilateral trade agreement by the end of 2024, will it be ratified in the US Senate within 12 months?

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1659858237822

Brian T. Edwards

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1.9591258337380766

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Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if China approves a COVID vaccine based on mRNA technology by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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4.814725394981225

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Brian T. Edwards

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Will a delegation of US Senators visit Taiwan by the end of 2022?

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Who Will be Top of the Salem/CSPI Forecasting Tournament Leaderboards?

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Who Will be Top 5 of the Salem/CSPI Forecasting Tournament Leaderboards?

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Who will be candidates in the Republican Primary for President (2024)?

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My partner is pregnant. Will our child be a boy or a girl?

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Who will run in the Republican primary for President (2024)?

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Conditional on the PRC invading taiwan will the united states declare war on the PRC?

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0.4704147304137737

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ussgordoncaptain

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which-projects-will-win-at-the-futu

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Which projects will win at the Future Forum Launchpad Competition?

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Will Chris Chan be sentenced to 10+ years in prison?

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NO

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Marc M

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How many days will Ashley spend in Boston in 2022?

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Nikola

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When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In order to be eligible they must fill out the survey and bet at least S$50 on 20 different markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cspicenter.com/p/da07f63c-9083-4c31-bb7b-d9c42ac3ccd5", "type": "text"...

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the Total profit of the number one leaderboard trader (doesn't have to be eligible for prizes, but can't be disqualified) as shown on [this page](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": ...

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is a Highschool or Bsc drop-out in the top 5 finalists.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/15562683854486...

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