CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.2819250754986689

THZ9IWQC1VmfjRZlj06W

{"NO": 709.906495360977, "YES": 10181.41375659546}

0

will-kanye-west-buy-parler-by-end-o

22847.09518644007

Will Kanye West buy Parler by end of year?

1672559940000

1IlGLRI9DHdqSdVAuZXhXmWUv7n1

cpmm-1

0

0.48106005208610814

True

basic

NO

public

1666012943616

Joe Brucker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if an offer to buy Parler led by Kanye West (a.k.a. \"Ye\") succeeds before the end of 2022. (It is not necessary that Kanye West provide a majority of the capital.)", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680209446427

1820

JoeBrucker

1680209444013

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0cr9jv_5Xh2YEcrB4si3DkniHrohQRkqT19OzH=s96-c

0

88

0

18

72

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "1IlGLRI9DHdqSdVAuZXhXmWUv7n1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1666012944094}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893467...

["technology-default", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1672543178875

1680209441036

0.03

0.4976848164530919

gLE7EkxabegCrjA9Cw4c

{"NO": 704.7278311144048, "YES": 726.7308634119793}

0

will-us-vc-funding-in-q4-of-2022-be

611.2375210923225

Will US VC funding in Q4 of 2022 be higher than Q3 2022?

1666497540000

MZMaL47EE5XvffC6rDihLLk76602

cpmm-1

0

0.49733360622309875

True

play

NO

public

1666016993764

Nonrival Forecasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved based on the quarterly ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2022-pitchbook-nvca-venture-mon...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673991275235

720

Nonrival

1673991290915

0

https://firebasestorage.…566-b532153221c6

0

21

0

7

24

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "MZMaL47EE5XvffC6rDihLLk76602", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1666016994269}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1666474826462

1673991288942

0.49

4iipMhM9DdvxqfJk9TW0

which-protocol-will-avraham-eisenbu

614.0465736670343

Which protocol will Avraham Eisenberg plunder next?

1924991940000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1666018017756

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GeorgeVii

1699127528392

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "74327061604d", "prob": 0.06854553642922351, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.545571178849512, "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 143.3021004304946, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4iipMhM9DdvxqfJk9TW0", "createdTime": 1666018018258, "probChanges": {"day": -0.9314544635...

9

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1666018018121}, {"name": "Honest Abe", "slug": "honest-abe", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "ciHdfDlnpGdDT3snVDGY", "createdTime": 1666140744588}]

["crypto-speculation", "honest-abe"]

1699127528237

1666126814451

True

0.06032091047550388

Jn2WL2tFFr96UQKoz0F0

{"NO": 860.4166693633598, "YES": 1785.8608660127775}

0.030000000000000027

will-spindle-ever-have-positive-pro

7996.306898751899

Will @Spindle ever have positive profit?

4102444740000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1666018108785

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GeorgeVii

1705071143263

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

17

0

6

[{"name": "Marketz About Spindle", "slug": "marketz-about-spindle", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "wDAyLOX0KjFAjMpIJmBz", "createdTime": 1666018109248}]

["marketz-about-spindle"]

0.5

1705071143263

1671995932378

0.0979633964720404

9G4La8yutnmKkOrDfjJO

{"NO": 337.12035399150386, "YES": 2289.384970093514}

0

test-market-will-resolve-to-no

3035.7985279476584

Test market (will resolve to NO)

1666630606785

uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3

cpmm-1

0

2.4432618583833756

True

play

NO

public

1666023599932

Boklam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Testing", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666630606785

460

Boklam

1666640462013

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c

19

0

20

0.5

1666598098683

1666640459604

0.015740389825535266

0.5305479519172361

20RrsPLN8XlAqZtPUHtY

{"NO": 229.95945211346063, "YES": 174.83092835668558}

0

will-robbi-jade-lew-be-officially-f

105.33211286131488

Will Robbi Jade Lew be officially found to have cheated at the Hustler Casino on Sept 29th?

1671856767672

rio8y31gsGed1vfpMqJrKxCMRPk1

cpmm-1

0

1.644096364744056

True

play

NO

public

1666023905179

Nathan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if an official report from Hustler Casino and its hired experts (e.g., lawyers) find that Robbi Jade Lew cheated at the Hustler Casino live stream on Sept 29th against Garrett Adelstein", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671856767672

200

N8kash

1671330394148

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpCfFUH2ojU7Hfo1NDQWB5UzXTzSlFfVhqUAlDrNB4=s96-c

5

0

7

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "rio8y31gsGed1vfpMqJrKxCMRPk1", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1666023905684}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1671330394032

1666023929272

0.6

0.6634262138667034

3ZetGdJfxyACC3cgO407

{"NO": 1013.093355915669, "YES": 460.633506259231}

1

will-murkowski-win-the-2022-alaskan

5176.493676256781

Will Murkowski win the 2022 Alaskan Senate Race?

1667883540000

a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32

cpmm-1

0

0.7256110222981715

True

play

YES

public

1666025744728

Matthew

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Lisa Murkowski defeats Kelly Tshibaka in the Alaska Senate race. Resolves NO if she does not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669747525001

620

Matthew

1667879945713

0

https://firebasestorage.…c1c-3f7a7fc9a67f

27

0

4

25

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "a41HDGtLseYxlhPtuH04uYVf6d32", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666025745483}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666048112712...

["politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1667879943325

1666764725207

0.81256460032177

0.6149123321001578

PVOtGGMnfzQDNZq3ezug

{"NO": 5115.360450073814, "YES": 79.90456006091004}

1

will-kanye-release-a-1-or-5m-album

8015.880413279719

Will Kanye release a #1 or $5m+ album by 2025?

1707882394972

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.1390400374779865

True

play

YES

public

1666025997375

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Peak US chart position or reported revenue ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1707882394972

520

Gigacasting

1707882395591

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

25

0

9

[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1666025997709}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1668...

["music-f213cbf1eab5", "entertainment", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1707876632838

1707875398747

0.99

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.39889763718757604

1yANEylIUx8Dm2SdnLYK

{"NO": 1123.0172123862976, "YES": 1260.3070482121757}

0.3715911537638386

will-elon-musk-found-another-billio

4005.460104694268

Will Elon Musk found another billion dollar company by 2030?

1893477540000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.195676234417846

False

basic

public

1666026453189

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "including at least five years of involvement; not currently publicly known (as of 2022), and valuation achieved within five years of close ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.04652613394714755}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.052701889636413, "platformFee": 0.7892025801264095, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1210

Gigacasting

1718868402326

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

64

0

31

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1718868327539

1718868401357

False

0.7077741751463118

mRo1JXhncDaP1HRrTSBM

{"NO": 4493.313384065637, "YES": 109.45661071813109}

1

will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1e5cace03ccd

6599.433902950271

Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.00 on October 18, 2022?

1666119600000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.2519446949518542

True

play

YES

public

1666030264411

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666123304184

360

Predictor

1666115960041

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

14

0

1

12

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1666030264759}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1666115959869

1666030343326

0.990042438917833

0.23036732950464575

S2HirYmZ5SqgHfrvNZUk

{"NO": 384.1595293615925, "YES": 5991.4503956112185}

0

will-north-korea-conduct-more-than

15253.4303447941

Will North Korea conduct more than one nuclear test before December 1, 2022?

1669870740000

4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72

cpmm-1

0

1.0258013717174728

True

play

NO

public

1666030657035

belikewater

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some analysts have ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "suggested", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nknews.org/2022/10/north-korea-could-conduct-more-than-one-nuclear-test-in-a-row-experts/", "class": "no-underlin...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670039903809

760

belikewater

1669861651017

0

https://firebasestorage.…645-cea3bb70be0d

34

0

1

30

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666986080502}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661102}]

["nuclear-risk", "north-korea"]

0.5

1669861649492

1666030709916

0.0188304669512559

0.5147920695506678

yIeGF2Rw851JR9lESxVt

{"NO": 148.87619665154108, "YES": 87.89226893120772}

0.6424901948193648

will-i-get-to-bed-by-1155pm-at-leas

35

Will I get to bed by 11:55pm at least 4 times this week?

1666036240491

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

2.5639893448454316

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666031111507

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment market created via www.Emile.chat.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666036240491

160

Charlie

1666036248187

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

3

0

5

0.5

1666034589408

1666036244927

0.642490194819365

0.40743024393132476

B2Au3eAkfnBve1P4O4Gl

{"NO": 117.75380741946225, "YES": 232.752523165195}

0

will-i-like-switching-from-notion-t

198.04761428476166

Will I like switching from Notion to Linear for bugs/tasks after a week of using it?

1666681140000

0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2

cpmm-1

0

2.112068993643629

True

play

NO

public

1666036955396

Sinclair Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "label": "JamesGrugett"}}, {"text": " has encouraged us to switch to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "linear.app", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://linear.ap...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666724258974

160

Sinclair

1669082057188

0

https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32

0

4

0

1

6

0.5

1666045073274

1669082056279

0.2580787087536261

0.7529413926594942

FIEQnp1SPyR6LKfTwZcN

{"NO": 1034.769778276641, "YES": 128.59069288120102}

1

will-alabama-win-the-iron-bowl

1469.9561988129335

Will Alabama win the Iron Bowl?

1669528740000

s9A1eoKy8geBVm2Qw47th3t1OTm2

cpmm-1

0

2.4511122042391547

True

play

YES

public

1666038008895

Elijah Parker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if Alabama wins the Iron Bowl and resolves to \"NO\" otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669645530795

240

ElijahParker

1669524878618

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3XB-WwwzGH_syZWEjr3a8NhUbZCJhYcqL1Kpdp=s96-c

11

0

9

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "s9A1eoKy8geBVm2Qw47th3t1OTm2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666038009350}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1669524878462

1666038095354

0.9608215412196472

0.8269700373776027

1ZTwVGJeFTOu5jlN40ac

{"NO": 16666.972833691307, "YES": 206.57400451915322}

1

will-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-k

18283.394455579764

Will Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be released in May 2023?

1683850241458

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

1.6149978426897924

True

play

YES

public

1666038851293

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo announced the official release date for May 12, 2023, but the release has previously been delayed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.polygon.com/platfor...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1683850241458

480

CarsonGale

1710208072471

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

21

0

16

[{"name": "🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly"}, {"name": "🎮 Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi"}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2"}, {"name": "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom", "slug"...

["entertainment", "gaming", "nintendo", "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1683840548136

1683854499218

1

0.31392262432766016

3UwZhAbgxDTlqRPiNPrg

{"NO": 209.26533960789803, "YES": 10870.589085282108}

0

after-april-will-there-be-a-nuclear

15444.911965927802

After april, will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in Germany, in 2023?

1704063540000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

1.2575918239316533

True

basic

NO

public

1666042209080

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is a plant delivering electricity at any point, after april, during that year.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704463467528

1020

TimP

1704463467869

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

0

47

0

1

34

[{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1666042252968}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1666042209518}, {"name": "Energ...

["economics-default", "energy", "energy-crisis", "germany", "nuclear", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1702514336207

1704463461406

False

0.01

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.2585109139714466

1qtm04RTS4EgfMW6YqoM

{"NO": 144.01141642103738, "YES": 926.0906415725863}

0

will-the-us-sanction-chinese-chip-c

1707.7195155652898

Will the US specifically sanction Chinese chip company SMIC in 2022?

1672559940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

2.1781342113840876

True

play

NO

public

1666044579995

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US recently blocked the sale of certain types of semiconductor equipment to China from the US and allied countries, and added 31 Chinese companies to the Unverified List, which blocks all sales to those companies and blocks US citizens from wor...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672576143963

260

ahalekelly

1672557412900

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

0

11

0

1

12

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666044580524}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1666245804597}, {"name"...

["world-default", "semiconductors", "china"]

0.5

1672557412796

1670112377825

False

0.05

0.48727040780672465

D76Dgs27F26ESqBkjGnD

{"NO": 241.27462185688063, "YES": 163.6787629530574}

1

will-chinese-chip-companies-be-bloc

115

Will Chinese chip companies be blocked from making chips at TSMC before the end of 2023?

1678340395262

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

1.641595896087531

True

play

YES

public

1666045928355

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced before the end of 2023 that a majority of Chinese chip companies will be blocked from making leading-edge chips at TSMC, similar to how Huawei was blocked from making new orders starting in 2020.", "type": "text"}]}]...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678340395262

200

ahalekelly

1678340373443

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

1

6

0

6

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666045928875}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1666045941858}]

["world-default", "semiconductors"]

0.5

1678239376045

1678340369934

0.58

0.46221219806885455

jgxWknlTZQerRqpMAoKD

{"NO": 78.86295885055932, "YES": 610.0227502943236}

0

will-there-be-a-uschina-trade-war-i

509.29720221778723

Will there be a US-China trade war in 2022?

1672559940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

2.0539838513235296

True

play

NO

public

1666046682511

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US just put a set of export controls on certain types of semiconductor equipment and sanctioned certain Chinese companies due to their potential to make weapons, supercomputers, and AI surveillance tools that are “contrary to United States nati...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672576211676

220

ahalekelly

1672558229645

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

7

0

1

8

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666046682934}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1666245782825}, {"name"...

["world-default", "semiconductors", "china"]

0.5

1672558229539

1666046771284

False

0.1

0.7379805209169277

v0WJaT2dh1ldmC4mI64W

{"NO": 5410.019437499585, "YES": 88.50790986828073}

1

will-the-tenth-episode-of-house-of

5396.708198509825

Will the tenth episode of House of the Dragon have a higher IMDB score than the series average?

1666652340000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

2.910283384781935

True

play

YES

public

1666047781111

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Series average: 8.6 (will use 8.6 even if it changes before the market close)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Episode 10: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11198354/?ref_=tt_ep_nx"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666697893464

280

GeorgeVii

1710462521574

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

0

10

0

1

10

[{"name": "House of the Dragon", "slug": "house-of-the-dragon", "groupId": "tgXkqBzB3NEhtpQxJdNa"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}]

["house-of-the-dragon", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1666646350346

1666047840679

0.9942249387825577

0.3275294019382775

EpP1eFEjdm6HrSS6HVTz

{"NO": 136.6371380891922, "YES": 490.4272924156832}

0.1

if-no-nuclear-weapon-is-detonated-i

376.0002194298167

If no nuclear weapon is detonated in 2022, what will Manifold's prediction be on Dec. 1?

1669960740000

uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3

cpmm-1

0

1.9527451268905052

True

play

MKT

public

1666048090270

Boklam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution of this market (THIS) depends on the resolution of the linked marked below (LINK):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475", "type...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673205797673

220

Boklam

1673205788995

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c

9

0

8

10

0.5

1669957215923

1673205786350

0.1

0.5

Kx31CdbJlSGYitqCWJOP

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

bug-test-bugs-should-file-in-linear

0

Bug: [test] Bugs should file in Linear

1666049535836

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666049130231

Manifold

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid, and 2) fixed in a week?\nPosted by <@112097134785937408> in <#918922777384341544>\n[Jump to original](<https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918922777384341544/1031694819849932800>)", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666049535836

100

Manifold

1666049913927

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

2

0.5

1666049908283

0.5

50MVaZT1VyFS3Ji1vY6z

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

bug-test-bugs-should-be-buggy

0

Bug: [test] Bugs should be buggy

1666049521602

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666049385365

Manifold

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid, and 2) fixed in a week?\nPosted by <@112097134785937408> in <#918922777384341544>\n[Jump to original](<https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918922777384341544/1031710434639753216>)", "type": "text...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666049521602

100

Manifold

1666049488624

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

2

0.5

1666049486890

0.5

tj6av5rMlOsFOBdIXklp

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

test-bugs-should-file-in-linear

0

[test] Bugs should file in Linear

1666050676239

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666050116861

Manifold

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week?\n\n\nFiled from \nhttps://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918922777384341544/1031694819849932800", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666050676239

100

Manifold

1666050327171

0

https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4

0

3

0.5

1666050325894

0.5

0.5714330684276825

P5rUHpREABjA9IjrijtD

{"NO": 216.37547311173398, "YES": 96.61240842381272}

1

edit-profile-page-should-be-restyle

115.02031968809473

Edit profile page should be restyled now that DaisyUI is gone

1666656627108

0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3

cpmm-1

0

2.322759215474896

True

play

YES

public

1666051827196

Manifold Bugs

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week?\n\n\nFiled from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918922777384341544/1031720590152839188", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667351392343

140

ManifoldBugs

1666661890261

0

https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6

2

0

2

4

[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1666052612866}]

["bugs"]

0.5

1666399234573

1666661888535

0.7491357872317863

0.8087719974443315

eJL4MFPZnCvM82aBFErm

{"NO": 10251.015419855583, "YES": 226.8698811098625}

1

will-kevin-stitt-win-the-2022-oklah

11673.45067219178

Will Kevin Stitt win the 2022 Oklahoma governor's race?

1668031614006

iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1

cpmm-1

0

1.921689693384896

True

play

YES

public

1666053487417

Nicholas Charette

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Kevin Stitt wins the Oklahoma governor's race.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668031614006

500

NicholasCharette73b6

1668030051460

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c

0

22

0

21

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666053516078}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 16660534878...

["us-2022-elections", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1668030051357

1668000831040

0.9947944253092922

0.4709847402749217

N3xb25Ka2iJN9bvknliO

{"NO": 115.47808059138507, "YES": 688.0406440456504}

0

i-can-enter-letters-into-the-limit

2182.1425048053597

I can enter letters into the limit order textbox

1666658355468

0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3

cpmm-1

0

1.5809309633112023

True

play

NO

public

1666053555609

Manifold Bugs

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week?\n\n\nFiled from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1031727651498500168", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667351635173

280

ManifoldBugs

1667351734775

0

https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6

9

0

2

10

[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1666053556057}]

["bugs"]

0.5

1666586681898

1667351733664

0.12999999999999995

0.37632092315069854

ZntTCPy64v1Eyl7QLMJY

{"NO": 79.81592513315547, "YES": 290.0000000000007}

0

no-market-was-created-when-used-the

150

No market was created when used the `/bug` command

1666116767836

0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3

cpmm-1

0

2.6333218113829124

True

play

NO

public

1666053659792

Manifold Bugs

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week?\n\n\nFiled from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/1031728200545472573", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666116767836

140

ManifoldBugs

1666059823176

0

https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6

2

0

4

[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1666053660198}]

["bugs"]

0.5

1666059822990

1666053850775

0.14241786475499785

0.15681121756125302

46U81GEOye6VhYHduDOY

{"NO": 928.6168665984119, "YES": 1205.043706734603}

0.12534899967137056

will-joe-biden-out-pronouns-in-the

875.4643832672565

Will Joe Biden put pronouns in the bio of his personal Twitter account before the end of his current term?

1737439140000

TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2

cpmm-1

0

9.878305321876873

False

basic

public

1666054502191

BRTD

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question shall resolve YES if Joe Biden puts pronouns in the bio of his personal @JoeBiden at some point in his current term as President. It shall resolve NO of this never occurs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.005562837487291583, "month": -0.005562837487291611}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.44435416521021603, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

BRTD

1719730203628

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c

1

34

1

26

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666054502798}, {"name": "Culture War", "slug": "culture-war", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "DEHK9bp6pMlniVYuHPKI", "createdTime": 1673773612456}]

["politics-default", "culture-war"]

0.5

1719730200542

1666054613165

0.4634374679019183

T4vHINLrcMwQQbuCaV2I

{"NO": 241.11388132359124, "YES": 294.2536610184254}

0

will-the-us-make-any-new-commitment

65.5454839069116

Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?

1671253140000

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-1

0

1.1320808849934865

True

play

NO

public

1666055941440

Pepe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676942455507

265

Pepe

1671123589107

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

4

0

14

5

[{"name": "Biosecurity", "slug": "biosecurity", "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "groupId": "DOMpq3Oo28HvvygsRCH2", "createdTime": 1666055941826}]

["biosecurity"]

0.5

1671123588828

1666055982140

0.41

0.4059722616787849

fKpEfvlfpzVMN0hInrdU

{"NO": 70.44792760346697, "YES": 433.31165178464886}

0

will-i-find-any-dealbreakers-to-usi

277.2373925174583

Will I find any dealbreakers to using the KDE spin of Fedora Silverblue on my laptop?

1672549140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.5259557360528735

True

play

NO

public

1666063761995

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at close I have reimaged my laptop to something other than Kinoite", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current annoyances:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672555063831

160

LivInTheLookingGlass

1672546529215

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

4

0

1

5

[{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1666063788205}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1666063784205}, {...

["olivia", "programming", "recommendations", "fun"]

0.5

1672546529108

1672233523370

0.1

0.10526377811159641

rlNrrJC4cNvwGNrAyLoQ

{"NO": 517.7307944381841, "YES": 5825.756396366363}

0

will-kanye-west-buy-parler-by-june

12075.956484825947

Will Kanye West buy Parler by June 2023?

1688198340000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0.03787087252481465

1.6966867387909375

True

play

NO

public

1666066365394

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if an offer to buy Parler led by Kanye West (a.k.a. \"Ye\") succeeds by June 2023. (It is not necessary that Kanye West provide a majority of the capital.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1688205316879

800

CarsonGale

1688196728905

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

0

37

0

1

25

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1666066365779}]

["technology-default"]

0.12659618816825444

0.5

1688196728774

1670180779467

0.01

0.7369836295962724

nhnDQnUC23ecEyH7TcLP

{"NO": 545.9999999999995, "YES": 59.76283122658087}

1

will-mary-moriarty-be-elected-as-he

406

Will Mary Moriarty be elected as Hennepin County Attorney in the 2022 general election?

1667973540000

TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2

cpmm-1

0

3.9667764282786626

True

play

YES

public

1666067197392

BRTD

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question shall resolve YES if Mary Moriarty is elected as Hennepin County Attorney in the November runoff over Martha Holton Dimick.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668011475767

140

BRTD

1667970532359

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c

3

0

1

4

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666067197805}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1667970532247

1667970435961

0.9624057296630933

0.3831491301711802

8K3UFoxuVhZyAy6wxRwj

{"NO": 151.15383897213462, "YES": 348.3750434645933}

1

will-i-go-to-the-furry-bar-outing-o

193.18336776942425

Will I go to the furry bar outing on Wednesday?

1666239477194

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

1.7343424867426906

True

play

YES

public

1666071552551

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weekly SF furry outing", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have been hoping to go to more of those but haven't been able to get myself to go much last couple months. I'd like to go to socialize ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666239477194

220

agentydragon

1666220957039

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

6

0

8

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1666071553011}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1666220953579

1666071632031

0.2122887024724186

0.5267884315512741

A3AsJEI8OE3LLVup4V9J

{"NO": 180.32578776959176, "YES": 164.243631307582}

1

will-i-do-laundry-tomorrow

107.08994826389157

Will I do laundry tomorrow?

1666153596831

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

1.8423833672657568

True

play

YES

public

1666071755818

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Running out of clothes, slowly. Not critically yet, but would be nice to get this done tomorrow. It is in my calendar.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666153596831

180

agentydragon

1666134892930

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

4

0

6

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1666071756268}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1666134890523

1666072294779

0.5499999999999988

0.48617569967024626

mft8dVcBEgMousm4tWvm

{"NO": 104.74576271186429, "YES": 138}

0

will-my-phq9-result-on-market-close

18

Will my PHQ-9 result on market close be >=9?

1668671940000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.4392886120036277

True

play

NO

public

1666072085004

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668717343633

120

agentydragon

1666144791696

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

1

0

1

3

[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1666072085578}]

["health"]

0.5

1666144791455

1666072233710

0.4179903026249791

0.6470050758341577

ZJ18avd3qtIMe6dUty0J

{"NO": 2160.689308729979, "YES": 263.03965948170776}

1

will-i-move-in-2023

2488.0598736221486

Will I move in 2023?

1684789872471

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

0.9827075809227328

True

play

YES

public

1666072360097

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Moved into current place June-ish 2022. Some good things about it, some not great. I don't particularly like moving, if it happens it'd probably be because I found some place I vibe with really well that is so much better that it would justify all ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1684789872471

600

agentydragon

1684790025091

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

1

28

0

4

[{"name": "Rai's personal", "slug": "rais-personal", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "Yc6gPlZaH1x8JSf76N1X", "createdTime": 1666072360582}]

["rais-personal"]

0.5

1684782227422

1684790021500

0.94

0.49205147615442935

JNSypyaSigG0nq4GNiBF

{"NO": 110.90909090909089, "YES": 130.00000000000009}

1

will-i-go-to-frolic-in-november

10

Will I go to Frolic in November?

1668326340000

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.429430953730897

True

play

YES

public

1666073101581

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This one: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://frolicparty.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://frolicparty.com/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668373326691

120

agentydragon

1666083579769

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

0

1

0

1

3

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1666073102170}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1666083578496

1666073185651

0.45248868778280604

0.7802704369965824

zZpbJZdMvhlUSklUShdv

{"NO": 12852.395051435413, "YES": 465.6660089183169}

1

will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-michig

16890.436941352098

Will a Democrat win the 2022 Michigan governor's race?

1668012849510

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

0.8952721616288684

True

basic

YES

public

1666075456920

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668012849510

1030

SG

1668007401026

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

35

0

34

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666075457271}]

["us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1668007400911

1668007358239

0.9898999134037887

0.2745305267910885

NvTibQMruZcmqlr9GAmu

{"NO": 771.170144785998, "YES": 1584.6949536250906}

0.1555136963451436

will-north-korea-invade-south-korea

3475.6460051912068

Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2035?

2108606340000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

9.690271885960623

False

basic

public

1666076266034

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY0KWLanlLM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY0KWLanlLM", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-i...

BINARY

{"day": 1.942890293094024e-16, "week": 1.942890293094024e-16, "month": 1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.6580917724541364, "platformFee": 1.6580917724541364, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

StochasticParrot

1713863459418

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

33

0

21

[{"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661104}, {"name": "Asia", "slug": "asia", "userId": "dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1", "groupId": "bPTxMZhUYsIUXsWT969d", "createdTime": 1683260647915}]

["north-korea", "asia"]

0.5

1713863455293

1673194684200

0.5129820164398693

jz2xoWw0sN65SHuw7KoT

{"NO": 182.4674217325713, "YES": 129.89247679472584}

1

will-i-get-my-blood-drawn-tomorrow

50

Will I get my blood drawn tomorrow?

1666107028502

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.024110920206233

True

play

YES

public

1666076880594

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Planning to go see my provider at One Medical tomorrow, for a flu vaccine. There's also a pending blood draw I hope to get done in the same visit. But I've been procrastinating on that for a month or two so there's some chance I'll miss it. But wel...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666107028502

180

agentydragon

1666105229273

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

4

0

6

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1666076880969}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1666105228813

1666077255984

0.5967169911549635

0.48880070529037123

4iqI1DYgRtOJZM7mEfM0

{"NO": 126.57804497813456, "YES": 147.36886768035893}

1

will-i-call-my-j1-visa-sponsor-on-o

30

Will I call my J1 visa sponsor on Oct 18?

1666114935943

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

cpmm-1

0

2.2043303437755237

True

play

YES

public

1666077764321

Rai

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Someone made a mistake that I need to correct. I've been procrastinating on this very important thing for 2-3 weeks now. Will I finally do it tomorrow now that I've done almost 2 things in a row today?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666114935943

140

agentydragon

1666088230393

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

3

0

4

[{"name": "Rai's personal", "slug": "rais-personal", "userId": "zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2", "groupId": "Yc6gPlZaH1x8JSf76N1X", "createdTime": 1666077764708}]

["rais-personal"]

0.5

1666088229173

1666077907979

0.45093729781113046

0.5638887660122698

vrOdJhokj12pMv1xlXOx

{"NO": 1471.3884232692967, "YES": 927.0570561044453}

0.6723661315959171

will-there-be-entrylevel-ai-coders

5394.260981209871

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

1767254400000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0

9.018961198246835

False

basic

public

1666079893366

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Entry-level coder\": an AI can be given natural language descriptions of coding tasks (emails, issues on a tracker, a spec, etc) and go through the full \"just out of undergrad\" coding loop: branch/fork, make edits, write tests, submit PRs, go b...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.022366131595917604, "month": -0.13878343125227033}

0

{"creatorFee": 27.94849892890501, "platformFee": 3.9701865086209605, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1205

vluzko

1720131367641

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

4

87

1

26

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1666079893698}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908154}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", ...

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "programming"]

0.5

1720131364569

1691672991577

False

0.670649928463461

d0pftiyuXdJk5ouuGNAo

{"NO": 471.63994505932493, "YES": 158.9361543141946}

0.8580075902544791

will-any-major-corporation-mostlyen

482.81139804508416

Will any Fortune 500 corporation mostly/entirely replace their customer service workforce with AI by 2026?

1767254400000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666080104683

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there are still human overseers that's fine. The corporation has to actually ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "have", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " a significant customer service branch.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "pa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

vluzko

1680078814762

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

1

8

0

10

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1666088170762}]

["ai"]

0.5

1680078814624

1666088518004

0.5676138522549793

2ILBKOqKXyMxVeUtSgV1

{"NO": 261.25084254603854, "YES": 221.77982648930063}

0

will-sota-for-rl-on-atari-environme

84.95198699564037

Will SOTA for RL on Atari-57 include a large pretrained language/image/video model by 2024?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0

1.4317358614852072

True

play

NO

public

1666080383097

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's fine if the training dataset for the large model contains the Atari environments, this isn't a question about sample efficiency.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll accept SOTA for eithe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704315003174

240

vluzko

1704315003383

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

8

0

1

10

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1666080383503}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031240789...

["technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1685601348423

1704315000671

0.61

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

0.7297653596419614

HTpHNcYnXGdWyFIy1VmY

{"NO": 6686.4508304331475, "YES": 140.66143681496487}

1

will-an-african-country-make-it-to

9043.652400494366

Will an african country make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage?

1669741338924

SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1

cpmm-1

0

2.007634495713019

True

play

YES

public

1666086160618

Chocobo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Five african countries qualified for the 2022 FIFA World Cup: Senegal (Group A), Tunisia (Group D), Morocco (Group F), Cameroon (Group G), Ghana (Group H)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relat...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669741338924

420

Chocobo

1669741399192

0

https://firebasestorage.…aa8-0ffda942bc16

18

0

19

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666086160988}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16660862419...

["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "brazil-cameroon-20221202"]

0.5

1669741161512

1669741393260

0.85

0.32749484870581447

gA8ymdqnqZy2hRm8kXRz

{"NO": 138.06027771202704, "YES": 238.3688616035552}

0.21999999999999997

given-nuclear-weapons-use-in-2023-h

359.09493016065846

Given nuclear weapons use before 2024. How many nuclear weapons will be used?

1704063540000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

2.184553902589752

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666096017718

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 nuke= 1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 18, 2:27pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Given nuclear weapons use in 2023. How many nuclear weapons will be used?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705094472785

180

TimP

1705094473153

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

8

0

3

4

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666096069527}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1666096018055}, {"name": "Conditional...

["wars", "nuclear-risk", "conditional-markets", "nuclear", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.5

1682454266770

1705094468363

False

0.22

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.6949507173627903

QDXO1ubnNWlPLk9TKEGg

{"NO": 308.04201493727555, "YES": 250.83617444522017}

1

will-chris-pappas-win-new-hampshire

392.28722343374704

Will Chris Pappas win New Hampshire's 1st District election for the House?

1667883540000

mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1

cpmm-1

0

1.504423671559908

True

play

YES

public

1666096960363

Andrew Hartman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As the question states, resolves YES if Pappas wins the election, and NO in all other cases. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668011428445

280

AndrewHartman

1667870061221

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039

10

0

1

11

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666096960837}]

["us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1667870061106

1666097095123

0.7366839097784914

0.5548163716215253

QgsaARSWYq8Qv0dMZl3g

{"NO": 229.9999999999997, "YES": 116.93530168101398}

1

will-the-republicans-maintain-a-maj

70

Will the Republicans maintain a majority in the NH State Senate after the 2022 elections?

1667883540000

mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1

cpmm-1

0

2.038832375989733

True

play

YES

public

1666099326989

Andrew Hartman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 24 state senate seats in NH, so a majority requires them to hold at least 13. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668093234968

160

AndrewHartman

1668093229118

0

https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039

4

0

1

5

[{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666099327403}]

["us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1667870088674

1668093227128

0.7102521233070828

xH7x9KXQqif6paqL84dC

when-will-the-who-officially-declar

10

When will the WHO officially declare an end to the COVID-related "public health emergency of international concern"?

1668528821304

ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.988398938453521

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666099361226

Nick Allen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Officially downgrading the emergency level resolves the question. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Answer by selecting a month & year, e.g. \"January 2023\". First answer of a given month wins...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668528821304

240

NickAllen

1666100368720

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c037a5083e71", "prob": 0.8264462809917356, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 90.89406337102493, "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.08775330791523, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xH7x9KXQqif6paqL84dC", "createdTime": 1666099361671, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

2

[{"name": "Pandemic", "slug": "pandemic", "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "groupId": "5OlW5cUQPgx5A9W1OPnp", "createdTime": 1666099361533}]

["pandemic"]

1666100348877

1666100364113

True

0.3187257087420035

vmcBgfvBH9MqYnX9lap3

{"NO": 334.31017819220455, "YES": 2906.861273881442}

0

will-the-us-send-military-personnel

5247.102116163704

Will the U.S. send military personnel to Haiti for active peacekeeping in 2022?

1672549449634

ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13

cpmm-1

0

0.8706964557311365

True

play

NO

public

1666100238066

Nick Allen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"yes\" if U.S. military on active orders are deployed to Haiti with an active peacekeeping mission. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that do not resolve the q...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672549449634

690

NickAllen

1672478193207

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1

0

19

0

17

[{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1666100238404}]

["wars"]

0.5

1672478193048

1667056319064

0.05

0.1768150324464594

L8nr53tYhfdjvXzj623E

{"NO": 207.8633192147936, "YES": 39526.92570642489}

0

will-a-nation-outside-of-europe-or

46903.29310724608

Will a nation outside of Europe or South America win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1671051607501

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

0.7287615838491179

True

play

NO

public

1666101067212

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far only European or South American countries have won the World Cup.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if a country that is not part of UEFA or CONMEBOL wins the FIFA 2022 World Cup.", "type...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671051607501

580

egroj

1671051761229

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

28

0

26

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666101067519}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16661020984...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "europe", "soccer"]

0.5

1671051597633

1671051737491

False

0.1

0.25149878464155845

LHvqk1IzsJi3EvVfjF4j

{"NO": 133.48670112668697, "YES": 26182.730859226445}

0

will-a-nation-outside-of-europe-or-141b6f807630

33219.30004306609

Will a nation outside of Europe or South America make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final?

1671051571433

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

1.1469815442461009

True

play

NO

public

1666101468507

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far only European or South American countries have made it to the final match of the World Cup.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if a country that is not part of UEFA or CONMEBOL qualifies f...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671051571433

540

egroj

1671051542642

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

26

0

1

26

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666101468868}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16661020837...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default", "europe", "soccer"]

0.5

1671051542480

1668787633266

False

0.3

0.7124568123597916

yWjkmeCqSWfsoGOheBl1

{"NO": 21311.807488199844, "YES": 57.35414682544433}

1

will-a-previous-host-of-the-world-c

24026.01319877392

Will a previous host of the FIFA World Cup win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1671051474706

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

1.9781080515771596

True

play

YES

public

1666102016153

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far all nations that have won the World Cup final have also hosted the tournament at some point.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if the FIFA 2022 World Cup champion is a nation that has pre...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671051474706

340

egroj

1671051466253

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

16

0

14

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666102016652}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16661020666...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]

0.5

1671051466144

1670625273432

0.92

0.6009195485169193

73r1o1h9PHK6UWzEhV76

{"NO": 7163.767974078212, "YES": 12.925029801514777}

1

will-i-do-at-least-29-pomodoros-tod

9576.365306957523

Will I do at least 29 pomodoros today?

1666150190641

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

3.9977632391270337

True

play

YES

public

1666102980760

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Considerations:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"pomodoro\" is a 25 minute work session.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666150190641

260

Charlie

1666153710835

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

0

9

0

10

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1666102981141}, {"name": "Charlie's Hack Days", "slug": "charlies-hack-days", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "iEzv4lSKQpAfmu6Gk33k", "createdTime": 1666...

["personal-goals", "charlies-hack-days"]

0.5

1666149902667

1666153705993

0.42678163646543366

0.738639695570276

WhWQLWk41apvVLSMREer

{"NO": 3092.465666915879, "YES": 168.74131231880688}

1

will-qatar-have-the-worst-result-as

3134.908306230922

Will Qatar have the worst result as a host nation at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669741500000

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

1.823701987423223

True

play

YES

public

1666104265826

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All nations have at least qualified to the Round of 16 of a World Cup that they are hosting with the exception of South Africa (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_team_appearances_in_the_FIFA_World_Cup#Hosts", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669741527586

380

egroj

1669741616688

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

17

0

18

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666104266148}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16661043595...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]

0.5

1669739866292

1669741613368

0.88243354556658

0.40964529601765354

35Xa39NhwSgII8Aqb1eF

{"NO": 19.792259177324013, "YES": 24631.496236547755}

0

will-two-european-nations-play-the

27282.921530362062

Will two European nations play the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final?

1670964968124

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

2.1965707703982775

True

play

NO

public

1666105305171

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670964968124

380

egroj

1670964958515

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

17

0

16

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666105305578}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000769}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrai...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "ukrainerussia-war", "europe"]

0.5

1670964958389

1670708495330

False

0.26

0.6264615026793486

0KWMOBw1uWHFjmH33QkN

{"NO": 372.90669339394327, "YES": 352.39107122250016}

0.6396056424077493

how-much-money-will-arbitragebot-ma

32

How much mana will @ArbitrageBot make in 3 months by arbitraging between different manifold instances?

1672549140000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.0479792376284793

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666107457618

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sometimes the same market appears on two different manifold instances:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/TomShlomi/will-the-gop-control-the-us-senate", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfull...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672605420436

360

Jenny

1667229136772

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

4

0

1

6

[{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1666107457935}]

["trading-bots"]

0.6160334708369962

1666128759084

1667229135270

0.7412284824501942

Z3RN93wy0hFVrehv1Dp8

{"NO": 27614.4704350078, "YES": 279.6141429471136}

1

will-a-previous-winner-of-the-world

40609.54935791879

Will a previous winner of the World Cup win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1671051446565

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

0.8297806870661351

True

play

YES

public

1666108027955

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the winner of 2022 FIFA World Cup is Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, Spain, or England.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671051446565

960

egroj

1671392083111

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

46

0

42

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666108028295}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16661080638...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"]

0.5

1671051423441

1671392080692

0.9

0.5751731112659239

65JZoxkpEJXQQrDsNAqE

{"NO": 436.7702855244408, "YES": 222.22877397656154}

1

will-alabama-beat-ole-miss-in-footb

594.1209485726523

Will Alabama beat Ole Miss in football?

1668305771216

s9A1eoKy8geBVm2Qw47th3t1OTm2

cpmm-1

0

1.2330380551133708

True

play

YES

public

1666110043594

Elijah Parker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if Alabama beats Ole Miss and \"NO\" otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668305771216

300

ElijahParker

1667277448881

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3XB-WwwzGH_syZWEjr3a8NhUbZCJhYcqL1Kpdp=s96-c

11

0

9

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "s9A1eoKy8geBVm2Qw47th3t1OTm2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1666110044017}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1667277447610

1666110096522

0.7268480719851158

0.7804259384688141

qM0CIDtj7gc0GA4QjCLH

{"NO": 699.6892600773904, "YES": 360.16759476662014}

1

will-bryan-caplan-decide-that-warni

613.1812730241845

Will Bryan Caplan decide that warnings over Don't Be a Feminist were overblown?

1688183940000

WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2

cpmm-1

0

1.2870654150174623

True

play

YES

public

1666114063229

Zvi Mowshowitz

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In Bryan's latest post, he says he expects fears expressed over his latest book, Don't Be a Feminist, to have been overblown. Will he decide that those fears were, indeed, overblown? If the answer is non-obvious, this market will be resolved by ask...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1689071648568

440

ZviMowshowitz

1689071673755

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjZzVqACtxwmB1FREO1eZAIgN70yLkYEFBbecQn=s96-c

1

19

0

3

18

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1666114063595}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1680679283662

1689071670367

0.87

jBeRlvI4oWmmcguec2q1

on-which-day-will-proof-school-rele-52314911365e

381.0348075432682

On which day will Proof School release EoBCs for Block 1?

1666223800061

uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.714316642738846

True

play

5988a99ac831

public

1666114297582

alleycat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dr. V said EoBCs would be released sometime this week.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666223800061

460.0000000000001

alleycat

1666221096233

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ce-8840db97518b

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5e91c4ce4d3e", "prob": 0.04359052436369034, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.9926472149771539, "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.779439826123014, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jBeRlvI4oWmmcguec2q1", "createdTime": 1666114298213, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

6

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1666114298059}]

["proofniks"]

1666221096031

1666114432688

{"5988a99ac831": 100}

True

0.8310031918244235

bXfuOWbgKDYD7BW0bSyd

{"NO": 1376.0227761315305, "YES": 1218.652886099627}

1

will-hochul-win-new-york-governor-r

24590.15504718256

Will Hochul win New York governor race?

1667883540000

RqkLWQpozOYWQKRjIpMVc7Zwuih1

cpmm-1

0

0.5510840491680706

True

basic

YES

public

1666114389224

George

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul win the race for New York governor?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667994367319

1300

George

1667879944909

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucolTGrW4xs83EDx0VNtxPiN28TpixCQHGMXT4FdNEk=s96-c

61

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…4af-8a108c443b5b

58

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "RqkLWQpozOYWQKRjIpMVc7Zwuih1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1667174472493}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "RqkLWQpozOYWQKRjIpMVc7Zwuih1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1667174393539}, {"name"...

["us-2022-midterms", "politics-default", "us-politics", "us-state-government"]

0.5

1667879942560

1667692112493

0.847380902439384

70AFDVEtAE2abpXmItEK

at-what-time-of-day-will-proof-scho

165.9040422553563

At what time of day will Proof School release EoBCs for Block 1?

1666223815776

uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.805376588690214

True

play

db28ab1abe90

public

1666114405881

alleycat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dr. V said 9:47 pm would be the latest time EoBCs could be released.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666223815776

540

alleycat

1666223395309

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ce-8840db97518b

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "82f1d8eb2754", "prob": 0.17639893365713133, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.893766447053976, "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.18677845268714, "textFts": "", "contractId": "70AFDVEtAE2abpXmItEK", "createdTime": 1666114406509, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

4

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1666114406314}]

["proofniks"]

1666223393998

1666219533098

{"db28ab1abe90": 100}

True

0.5005438357933282

jVpBfct36E41pcmwijtz

{"NO": 111.1526593274829, "YES": 92.06175023657379}

0.5475113122171948

test-theres-a-bug-with-manifold

10

[Test] There's a bug with Manifold

1666116757246

0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3

cpmm-1

0

2.754275438017766

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666114847226

Manifold Bugs

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this bug be 1) recognized as valid by a member of the Manifold core team, and 2) fixed in a week?\n\n\nFiled from https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918922777384341544/1031984917233541170", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666116757246

120

ManifoldBugs

1666115896373

0

https://firebasestorage.…385-21fb1410c1f6

1

0

3

[{"name": "Bugs", "slug": "bugs", "userId": "0y8XGYmdCmek1dvp3sdQAxDLz2E3", "groupId": "B06P2pVumxJa7ZWvFuPH", "createdTime": 1666114847668}]

["bugs"]

0.5

1666115895056

1666114896541

0.5475113122171947

0.733643970594265

zV1cFNYNivdCRAt8KMq7

{"NO": 17457.297148095968, "YES": 99.098000840022}

1

will-a-team-lose-all-their-games-at

17518.169878442917

Will a team lose all their games at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669741003179

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

1.7280920134723141

True

play

YES

public

1666117984515

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a team scores 0 points (that is, no draws or victories) at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669741003179

420

egroj

1669742571960

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

18

0

19

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666117984869}]

["2022-fifa-world-cup"]

0.5

1669740985746

1669742569024

0.910300419334823

0.3464951845669833

ckmPRNWOR6Ikw8KTujWK

{"NO": 211.45168406219221, "YES": 23298.257112803305}

0

will-a-team-finish-scoreless-at-the

32048.598169624038

Will a team finish scoreless at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1669994874739

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

1.0743000222742358

True

basic

NO

public

1666119595086

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a team does not score any goals (not counting own goals) at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1669994874739

1180

egroj

1669994870304

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

0

57

0

53

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666119595457}]

["2022-fifa-world-cup"]

0.5

1669994870184

1669676147926

0.24147589330423913

0.6730993827784194

Gz3T5KOJcOdpobKU8WWD

{"NO": 1947.7468145749012, "YES": 50.38830935550256}

1

if-tudor-dixon-loses-the-mi-governo

2360.379760812997

If Tudor Dixon loses the MI governor's race, she will concede within a week of ABC confirming it

1668237521637

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.4193180743497793

True

play

YES

public

1666120141254

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668237521637

200

LivInTheLookingGlass

1668233907787

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

7

0

7

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666120164942}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666120161674}, {"name"...

["olivia", "politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-midterms"]

0.5

1668233907609

1668233572767

0.9875917288140686

0.4999999999999999

ydKU2X6xHaOk5kRcQIzX

{"NO": 250, "YES": 40}

1

this-market-looks-sus

300

This market looks sus

1666120837221

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

3.178470410233162

True

play

YES

public

1666120704334

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666120837221

100

IsaacKing

1666120828186

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

0

2

0.5

1666120819998

1666120826547

0.5

0.28121510099218905

uhgwMC1o2f44ZW9RBson

{"NO": 175.08908573668248, "YES": 1838.090261637086}

0

will-manifold-markets-add-a-notes-s

3562.586955977139

Will Manifold Markets add a Notes Section to a market this year?

1672551478407

WQYDzL1AUNh1LrgklL3tubay3kk1

cpmm-1

0

1.6803017657784554

True

play

NO

public

1666120803148

Alex Wilson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think it would be useful to have a personal notes section on a market so that I could write down my expected probability and some reasons for that prediction. Right now I have to use an external spreadsheet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragra...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672551478407

360

AlexWilson

1672430791524

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywBTf-CVQlTy7PmDXMwJ3lYJEgWoLugmbOEglE4g=s96-c

15

0

14

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "WQYDzL1AUNh1LrgklL3tubay3kk1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666120803677}, {"name": "Maniifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "create...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1672430790365

1666186514150

0.04

0.38339861888282273

hgSz0XhtVtOGn3ZYAM2j

{"NO": 31.694425038891495, "YES": 10506.3199750768}

0

will-a-team-win-all-their-games-at

10365.522173918043

Will a team win all their games at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

1670018991419

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

2.729611767570723

True

play

NO

public

1666122720017

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the 2022 FIFA World Cup champion does not lose nor draw any games.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: a game from the knock-out round that goes to a penalty shout-out is considered a dra...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670018991419

300

egroj

1670019016439

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

12

0

13

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666122720439}]

["2022-fifa-world-cup"]

0.5

1670018985091

1670019013279

0.20415127134725755

0.3508183410077833

b5a3W2QOJdgiD3G7R22d

{"NO": 83.6018689050679, "YES": 1717.304425251485}

0

will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-6d8b7a46c524

2294.7600318025197

Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.25 on October 19, 2022?

1666206000000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.329666210834331

True

play

NO

public

1666123031158

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666211490535

300

Predictor

1666202005471

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

11

0

1

12

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1666123031503}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1666202005263

1666127111345

0.025633452913077833

0.6016648047746965

oLqBUaE3c0UOQSqG8OA1

{"NO": 3885.5690057529064, "YES": 395.91788207107385}

0.9368034942087078

if-the-winner-of-the-2024-president

18516.411157382467

If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Democrat, the Republican candidate will refuse to concede defeat

1730869140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0.09503924922038207

10.104442460239056

False

basic

public

1666123430841

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve N/A if winner is a non-Democrat", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise resolves to the same value as this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/M...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.013768784777989151, "month": 0.013768784777989151}

0

{"creatorFee": 34.747561281642724, "platformFee": 26.43406293095763, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1030

LivInTheLookingGlass

1719928273788

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

2

61

1

31

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Derivati...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "derivative-markets", "olivia"]

0.1516649994873651

0.5

1719928270554

1714016994181

0.3932948666123025

lGl34Cm22Q46J4fZ1kJt

{"NO": 11172.113543513471, "YES": 1.126029360024404}

1

will-a-nation-outside-of-europe-or-a1927063b596

11961.65165122316

Will a nation outside of Europe or South America make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup semi-finals?

1670691457727

946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2

cpmm-1

0

3.937581232844245

True

play

YES

public

1666125388184

JAAM

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far only two countries outside of Europe or South America countries have made it to the World Cup semi-finals (USA in 1930 and South Korea in 2002).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if a cou...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670691457727

360

egroj

1670691444209

0

https://firebasestorage.…3f7-a770bebe9686

16

0

1

15

[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1666125388533}, {"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1691182000854}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId...

["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "europe"]

0.5

1670691444082

1668787683113

False

0.68

0.5192769010576446

TO3XdfU7laPpQcbjlgbM

{"NO": 3514.6096098147223, "YES": 37.71748926263507}

1

will-the-neoliberal-podcast-be-rena

6795.122561523864

Will the Neoliberal Podcast be renamed before the end of 2023?

1689978870932

U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1

cpmm-1

0.12884777212802287

2.748053801101586

True

play

YES

public

1666125666095

Evelyn

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On September 21, 2022, the Center for New Liberalism ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cnliberalism.org/posts/new-website-newish-name", "class": "no-underline !text-indig...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1689978870932

380

athenaciara

1689978845679

2.3

https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c

17

0

12

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1666125683306}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666125666826}, {"name": "Cul...

["politics-default", "internet", "culture-default"]

0.116684413590537

0.5

1689962102173

1689978842111

0.99

0.13278119092543084

Q0JE5t6kwr5SC8FXZLVQ

{"NO": 838.6321763637495, "YES": 2126.2187524820906}

0.05695153827321253

if-the-winner-of-the-2024-president-9dcedef2f628

2648.9219560751135

If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Republican, the Democratic candidate will refuse to concede defeat

1730869140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.106536433596565

False

basic

public

1666130658860

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve N/A if winner is a non-Democrat", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise resolves to the same value as this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/M...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.03997629457732617, "platformFee": 0.03997629457732617, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1715079877485

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

30

0

18

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Olivia",...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "olivia"]

0.11296989555702315

0.5

1715079874237

1666130747019

0.2014552812336069

KQ6COGcG5ceZEhkcYIwr

{"NO": 1020.8990051374101, "YES": 791.9976065581924}

0.24539171500576423

will-i-major-in-math

6433.224726362153

Will I major in math?

1875077940000

uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2

cpmm-1

0

9.569130237634944

False

basic

public

1666133783861

alleycat

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is no way in hell that I am going to be a math major.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let me repeat that.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is NO. WAY.", "type": "text"}]},...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5090854253720596, "platformFee": 0.5090854253720596, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

alleycat

1714229238184

0

https://firebasestorage.…5ce-8840db97518b

2

38

0

26

[{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1666133784378}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1685479248625}]

["proofniks", "mathematics"]

0.5

1714229234737

1704342366439

0.4391919441656185

G5v2j2FmjHlSt84B9Nv7

{"NO": 1946.0020771768056, "YES": 24.17053483457886}

1

will-avraham-eisenburg-attempt-to-c

4150.1056152364845

Will Avraham Eisenberg attempt "a profitable trade" against Aave?

1672185679891

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

3.032246537235086

True

play

YES

public

1666139749972

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Avi attempt an Aave 'exploit'?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(Will he get funding? ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://mobile.twitter.com/avi_eisen/status/1582492748111704065", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672185679891

400

GeorgeVii

1672185672557

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

0

17

0

16

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1666139750314}, {"name": "Honest Abe", "slug": "honest-abe", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "ciHdfDlnpGdDT3snVDGY", "createdTime": 1666140626075}]

["crypto-speculation", "honest-abe"]

0.5

1672185671374

1666196042123

0.94

0.23506353380594458

nibpOy8r48jyDcGStwlm

{"NO": 194.60557498078037, "YES": 4231.539758283845}

0

will-avraham-eisenburg-successfully

6191.4489279454865

Will Avraham Eisenberg successfully conduct "a profitable trade" against Aave?

1704067140000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

3.078191837246648e-16

1.7945795754851197

True

play

NO

public

1666139780677

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Avi successfully pull off an Aave 'exploit'? (Will he end net positive in the immediate aftermath (ie. not counting court battles years down the line) )", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related:", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704174966492

440

GeorgeVii

1704174966726

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

20

0

1

15

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1666139781041}, {"name": "Honest Abe", "slug": "honest-abe", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "ciHdfDlnpGdDT3snVDGY", "createdTime": 1666140597097}, {...

["crypto-speculation", "honest-abe", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11799294695244576

0.5

1702946091791

1666521688549

0.01

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.5

wmBYbX64z3pwzpg3C5lk

{"NO": 110, "YES": 90.90909090909089}

1

can-i-reopen-a-market

10

Can I re-open a market?

1666141068814

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

0

2.777129019308858

True

play

YES

public

1666141051600

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-18 8:57 pm", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-19 8:57 pm", "type": "text"}]}...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666141068814

100

MarketManagerBot

1666141167816

0

https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e

1

0

2

[{"name": "Management of Olivia's Bot", "slug": "management-of-olivias-bot", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cpMUDRlGNrGmeJf3SIuk", "createdTime": 1666410960569}]

["management-of-olivias-bot"]

0.5

1666141065395

1666141166375

0.5

0.312351655078805

0kcLEvTJ0pOYLwUNCg5o

{"NO": 1390.0240747640873, "YES": 1219.0712662357046}

0.34120786968574984

will-google-search-market-share-be

3166.6857591072653

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

1988161140000

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

cpmm-1

0

9.171381448034431

False

basic

public

1666141650699

MP

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will solve to YES if by Dec 2032, Google Search market share measured by GS Statscounter is lower than 60%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market share as of Oct 2022:", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.013481054051351637}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.071630321878605, "platformFee": 1.4162894991139845, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1350

MP

1719145607148

0

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf

43

0

16

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1666141871362}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1666141860781}, {"name": "T...

["ai", "technology-default", "economics-default", "internet"]

0.5

1719145604083

1701148960083

EFj7OQJYroHXRFaus1n6

the-best-college-for-computer-scien

908.9134333087964

The Best College for Computer Science.

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.769468321929519

True

play

27608f13f8dc

public

1666144475762

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. What is the best College for Computer Science. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " Will resolve for the highest answer for our community.", "type":...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704859479102

660

ThatGuy

1704859479276

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

17

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "b168d2d440a4", "prob": 0.1117908311939404, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.8526763287998, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 30.610582309254173, "textFts": "", "contractId": "EFj7OQJYroHXRFaus1n6", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16661444...

2

4

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666144476266}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT", "createdTime": 1691181936452}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's...

["the-best-of-collections", "programming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11492907283958147

1700621172925

1704619396246

False

{"27608f13f8dc": 100}

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

eRBi5p0SvM8dkhhVgTMF

what-is-the-best-rock-climbing-dest

701

What is the Best Rock Climbing Destination in the USA?

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.675635044894395

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666145065196

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. What is the best rock climbing destination in the USA", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704931230253

379.99999999999994

ThatGuy

1704931230471

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f07ab0a640b9", "prob": 0.015586010620307636, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.20919065847108997, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 13.212502908099891, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eRBi5p0SvM8dkhhVgTMF", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16...

2

3

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666145065612}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "cre...

["the-best-of-collections", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1703304278384

1704931224712

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

N4ClkvVGyEirD9UmVfoJ

what-is-the-best-csgo-map

430

What is the best CSGO map?

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.705190359925168

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666145250518

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. What is the best CSGO map?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704931192489

340

ThatGuy

1704931192678

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "8da4b21a3946", "prob": 0.0355998576005696, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.8207766717041439, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.234840036465254, "textFts": "", "contractId": "N4ClkvVGyEirD9UmVfoJ", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16661...

2

3

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666145251072}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031...

["the-best-of-collections", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1700622674137

1704931187926

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

PqDgxvLQhVlLx9XbrWwB

what-is-the-best-restaurant-in-chic

31

What is the Best Restaurant in Chicago?

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.937369318928345

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666145468545

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. What is the Best Restaurant in Chicago?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704931205387

280

ThatGuy

1704931205634

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "2380ce8c0464", "prob": 0.5827166249053085, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.03546925530223, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 49.436299533721936, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PqDgxvLQhVlLx9XbrWwB", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 166614...

2

3

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666145468991}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "cre...

["the-best-of-collections", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1684143604712

1704931201906

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

0.5

3CK1pBJqNlzsDSvg895D

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

who-is-the-best-talk-show-host

0

Who is the Best Talk Show host?

1666145799100

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666145780727

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. Who is the Best talk Show Host?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666145799100

100

ThatGuy

1666145923673

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

0

2

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666145781214}]

["the-best-of-collections"]

0.5

1666145922035

0.5

L0TGlM0G8YedOHY1eKD1

who-is-the-best-talk-show-host-c863117c0076

187

Who is the Best Talk Show Host?

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.775463166916439

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666145839745

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. Who is the Best talk Show Host?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704931162299

460

ThatGuy

1704931162587

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "5e3910c71e31", "prob": 0.12140489747356409, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.415532503881098, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 39.19166717733712, "textFts": "", "contractId": "L0TGlM0G8YedOHY1eKD1", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 166614...

2

4

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666145840184}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031...

["the-best-of-collections", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1686127623097

1704931158206

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

0.5534075011729199

1oaBMf49peeatqXuGXt1

{"NO": 218.77111496704526, "YES": 254.87027175573724}

0.5154249656780482

will-new-zealand-change-its-flag-by-5af01f93c826

278.0911945413325

Will New Zealand change its flag by 2100?

4102398000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666146483114

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.930207912104297, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

NcyRocks

1716754091725

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…b4b-2fb8c420a3ba

3

[{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1666147017837}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533857}]

["nz-politics", "new-zealand"]

0.5

1716754087694

1666146529432

Y4GImjqAx82mgQp4DpLk

what-is-the-best-nyc-bodega-order

2

What is the best NYC Bodega Order?

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.012422314310263

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666146832929

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Part of \"the best\" series. What is the Best NYC Bodega Order?", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704931219714

260

ThatGuy

1704931219936

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "d76a9f460aea", "prob": 0.9611687812379854, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 33.486705901466486, "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.3528629184192444, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Y4GImjqAx82mgQp4DpLk", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 16661...

2

[{"name": "The \"Best of\" Collections", "slug": "the-best-of-collections", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "YiwitcT1oedi0HUddyQR", "createdTime": 1666146833377}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "cre...

["the-best-of-collections", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1689465165781

1704931210429

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

True

0.5898186049241794

yF3VF5dQKiBJ9Yfa3aLO

{"NO": 34.885363801274806, "YES": 770.4296132158721}

0

will-manifold-markets-do-something-74682430bec4

2178.2199891809487

Will Manifold Markets do something for New Year?

1672607952405

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.9305765808815307

True

play

NO

public

1666146868375

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Manifold Markets does something on their website in an official capacity on 12/31/2022 or 01/01/2023 which is (in my judgement) clearly intended as an observance of New Year's Eve, New Year's Day, or Market Resolution...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672607952405

320

Jenny

1672607891718

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

13

0

14

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666146896750}, {"name": "New Year's Market Resolutions 2022", "slug": "new-years-market-resolutions-2022", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZtGYgwPT0...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-market-resolutions-2022"]

0.5

1672607887149

1672607741002

0.06

0.6306572039598869

lOCyOucwcC1nRFTzipXV

{"NO": 2579.2797322334677, "YES": 169.24441785925654}

1

will-dwarkesh-move-to-the-bay-area

2490.3033560788226

Will Dwarkesh move to the Bay Area by the end of 2023?

1670688575255

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.317346404409868

True

play

YES

public

1666148502496

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670688575255

490

SG

1670396960628

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

9

0

10

0.5

1670396960415

1670393460861

0.96

0.5678362206102832

Bo2IPS2aRGvE1fTczucC

{"NO": 201, "YES": 102.11137428506228}

1

will-reddit-lower-the-subs-requirem

61

Will Reddit lower the subs requirements for their "Prediction Tournaments" before the end of 2023

1704085140000

LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1

cpmm-1

0

2.29098190384462

True

play

YES

public

1666149204818

ThatGuy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reddit will lower its standards for mods to implement prediction tournaments before the end of 2023. Current standard is 10k Subs.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705156645520

140

ThatGuy

1705156645783

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2wWIiCQcBRL2yz0JcauraVEV67z955HMcvShdD=s96-c

3

0

3

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "LL69HyPeYHOXor9tq3PUAxoteWo1", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1666149205508}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 170...

["predictions-on-predictions", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.5

1683102148395

1705156643174

0.72

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.43527966760439035

x34CuyHIKGaVPGyvSwbK

{"NO": 561.2677336765929, "YES": 601.6112182010096}

1

if-manifold-invests-a-developerweek

142

If Manifold invests a developer-week creating a World Cup dashboard, will I think the effort was worth it at the end of December?

1672552740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

0.6489696799804539

True

play

YES

public

1666149868183

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve according to my subjective judgment. Getting an additional countefactual 100+ DAUs would probably be worthwhile, 50 maybe, <30 probably not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672628043324

580

SG

1666188315733

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

9

0

1

13

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1666149868665}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1666181598562

1666188314206

0.42

0.5264473369712336

Sv9eTj6Jx1OfTd2t7wY6

{"NO": 129.55702228874156, "YES": 192.52260997573325}

0.42795384790257324

will-new-zealand-have-a-codified-co-0c54daf1f22b

71

Will New Zealand have a codified constitution by 2100?

4102398000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666150079963

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.7035406291848896, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

NcyRocks

1717046655911

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

4

0

https://firebasestorage.…742-edc17dd824ad

4

[{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1666152420457}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533857}, {"name": ...

["nz-politics", "new-zealand", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1717046652463

1666150115990

0.2715860481310309

IyV9EjFJD32qb7wWgah2

{"NO": 520.7554354612553, "YES": 769.0047340351432}

0.20158665767427417

if-north-korea-conducts-a-nuclear-w

2310.9311626103513

If North Korea conducts a nuclear weapon test in 2022, will there be a deadly military conflict between North and South Korean forces by February 2023?

1673118706243

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

0.8146132587171823

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666151278481

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if North Korea does not conduct a nuclear weapon test by the end of 2022, as per the question ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "W...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673118706243

600

jack

1673118705125

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

27

0

20

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666151278858}, {"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661103}]

["nuclear-risk", "north-korea"]

0.5

1672730969796

1673118703121

0.2

0.1789331680472971

iYOBwc7S1o44N7zhovDA

{"NO": 168.03138177770597, "YES": 22930.68557436156}

0

will-there-be-a-kinetic-military-co

28596.682660619055

Will there be a deadly military conflict between North and South Korean forces by February 2023?

1677682047301

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

1.4267719605958136

True

play

NO

public

1666151453222

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if by the end of February 2023, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "kinetic military action", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677682047301

440

jack

1677682041258

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

1

19

0

17

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1666151453571}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1666783338176}, {"nam...

["nuclear-risk", "global-macro", "north-korea"]

0.5

1677682041118

1666783380697

0

0.6708227126633816

KIre37rpj9wiaCpzQ8GW

{"NO": 38159.61128067321, "YES": 27.01764696032842}

1

will-prince-nzimande-mpofu-stay-in

38258.77158646259

Will Prince Nzimande Mpofu stay in power in Mabunga through the end of 2023?

1704082749273

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

cpmm-1

0

2.030487928977235

True

play

YES

public

1666151693190

Trent Yazzo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if he is confirmed removed from power, escapes to exile, is assassinated, dies, or any other scenario or combination of scenarios where he is no longer in control of Mabunga.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704082749273

400

kazoo

1710218241299

0

https://firebasestorage.…b09-3312ffa70d6f

0

17

0

https://firebasestorage.…ded-2d425696f9dd

9

[{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "🎮 Destiny.gg", "slug": "destinygg", "groupId": "W2ES30fRo6CCbPNwMTTj"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "Controversial markets", "sl...

["world-default", "destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "controversial-markets", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1704082744971

1703985681498

1

wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2

0.34541931587502883

k3govfVEzS0kUOIR0pK4

{"NO": 592.7589919659221, "YES": 2626.8352956426015}

0.1064066279750494

will-the-european-union-become-a-co

3172.0428952695584

Will the European Union become a country by 2100?

4102398000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.817101029971198

False

basic

public

1666153681449

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 38.277702566020096, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1717109737031

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

1

20

0

https://firebasestorage.…580-bef6584c7d5d

7

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1666153930552}, {"name": "Europe", "slug": "europe", "groupId": "ue52QI4BQgJgAJJNjLHr", "createdTime": 1691182248260}]

["world-default", "europe"]

0.5

1717109733606

1666153753801

False

0.5897696330599431

3TB2HBVKkdrCbSlghLpc

{"NO": 340.04765298863464, "YES": 157.90541807199347}

0.7558578451278863

will-the-us-admit-a-new-state-by-21

141.00809176223396

Will the US admit a new state by 2100?

4102398000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666158196717

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.47212762456576296, "platformFee": 0.47212762456576296, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

NcyRocks

1715203133653

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

8

0

https://firebasestorage.…dff-ead048e6a48d

7

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1666160527306}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681426581615}]

["us-politics", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1715203130392

1666158333012

0.3727792326453356

5LeeuJeJWeYwfCg2QWEu

{"NO": 171.78081148099906, "YES": 361.974396254462}

1

will-v-post-at-least-three-more-off

3315.8424282254086

Will V post at least three more official poems on the Inkwell in 2022?

1672532100796

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

1.6196081321432354

True

play

YES

public

1666158747891

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An official poem is one that's part of V's main collection, not just something she posts in a random channel. Market resolves as expected", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quick context: The Ink...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672532805192

240

Conflux

1672544977725

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

8

0

9

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1666159412017}, {"name": "Inkwell", "slug": "inkwell", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "SD8JklTitVpn1g994bDp", "createdTime": 1672617822908}]

["personal-goals", "inkwell"]

0.5

1672532003129

1672544974666

0.22