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0.2747946564379617 | 7boqo6pcaMkvWQxRKwoa | {"NO": 909.6847725573663, "YES": 1200.9485090528906} | 0.22301196190362413 | ai-honesty-4-by-2027-will-we-have-a | 341.5424869201057 | AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)? | 1798790400000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.616219356056757 | False | basic | public | 1665677617734 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " asking if we will have AI that 1. will want to destroy us 2. will not want to destroy us. It is just asking whether we'll have AI that is honest ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.010157295982674452} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7855988502173601, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1719486891322 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1665677618197}, {"name": "Technical AI Safety", "slug": "technical-ai-safety", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "nGoGff9mTYMUkyi7cTSk", "c... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "technical-ai-safety", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1719486888239 | 1719485972365 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | PYtExoWzdYr5y8kRpUqx | {"NO": 90.90909090909084, "YES": 110} | 0.45248868778280527 | will-bitcoin-reach-1k-before-it-rea | 10 | Will Bitcoin reach $1k before it reaches $1m? | 1665685806018 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7771290193088594 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665678712302 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window below $1k or above $1m", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665685806018 | 100 | Gigacasting | 1665679996211 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1665678712625}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1665679996012 | 0.45248868778280527 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.08081895037998742 | yZ2zpiGKdREzAwNPdffX | {"NO": 810.3470847573784, "YES": 3222.979444556662} | 0.021628649799947608 | will-avraham-eisenburg-be-a-billion | 3677.765254358551 | Will Avraham Eisenberg become a billionaire before the end of 2030? | 1924991940000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1665680159062 | GeorgeVii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I cannot find out his NW, it resolves to my PROB that he is/was", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.0291399820127272, "platformFee": 1.0291399820127272, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GeorgeVii | 1713895377951 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1665680204963}, {"name": "Honest Abe", "slug": "honest-abe", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "ciHdfDlnpGdDT3snVDGY", "createdTime": 1666140716496}] | ["crypto-speculation", "honest-abe"] | 0.5 | 1713895374414 | 1666221612974 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08928402613585171 | 9jHTklhzGPUZFOq9ky0Q | {"NO": 452.3660543634801, "YES": 12149.24184339837} | 0 | will-donald-trump-be-arrested-in-th | 23928.837790179878 | Will Donald Trump be arrested in the immediate aftermath (48 hours) of the midterm elections? | 1668574740000 | jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9172640266058902 | True | play | NO | public | 1665683507113 | Michael Wheatley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Are the relevant bodies waiting until the conclusion of the midterm elections to arrest Trump?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 13, 3:00pm: In the interests o... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668578466914 | 660 | MichaelWheatley | 1668573791695 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1665683507650}, {"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1665684086316}, {"name": "US Pol... | ["magaland", "law-order", "us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.5 | 1668573791563 | 1668109457551 | False | 0.0036700853884499337 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.21208033504373988 | 0lp9mls4SYw5imQjbV44 | {"NO": 270.05390596636613, "YES": 6869.252856857416} | 0 | will-manifold-support-private-messa | 9143.981973496013 | Will Manifold support private messages this year? | 1672556340000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5037568201923759 | True | play | NO | public | 1665692968929 | Scott Lawrence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold lacks PMs. This market resolves YES if a PM facility is put in before the end of Dec 31 (Mountain time). Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PMs are susceptible to ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672559522510 | 620 | ScottLawrence | 1681163018549 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665692969501}, {"name": "Maniifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "create... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1672555309558 | 1681163015416 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.6990548996544578 | CRpoHWmHPXC8jVXT9bBS | {"NO": 2361.4027394970317, "YES": 124.38577235992486} | 1 | will-sinclair-perform-with-bayesian | 2523.674035991813 | Will @Sinclair perform with Bayesian Choir at winter solstice 2022 | 1671654902420 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.019751507596114 | True | play | YES | public | 1665700333263 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if I decide not to (like conflicting plans) or if I cannot (like fail audition, solstice cancelled, or choir doesn't perform), YES otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I perf... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671654902420 | 340 | Sinclair | 1671480177757 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1665700333665}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists"] | 0.5 | 1671480177620 | 1671383220460 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.22584316887134337 | 1U8HrIpAiy1DUt7ZuLqN | {"NO": 624.8036305330215, "YES": 34476.521996837684} | 0 | will-lizz-truss-still-be-prime-mini | 66039.31268970828 | Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022? | 1672012740000 | jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6611149431503787 | True | basic | NO | public | 1665701190333 | John Roxton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Lizz Truss is Prime Minister of the UK on 25/12/2022 and NO in all other cases. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In his ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "most recent ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672041598054 | 2240 | JohnRoxton | 1672006420839 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 0 | 1 | 86 | [{"name": "Current Affairs", "slug": "current-affairs", "userId": "jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3", "groupId": "8SqsBkx4asUaYVOQoYV4", "createdTime": 1665701209322}, {"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665701190797}, {... | ["uk-politics", "current-affairs", "free-money"] | 0.5 | 1672006420653 | 1667171003074 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4398399783920662 | JUYZStPdu3zFfeiQvloj | {"NO": 3810.370635534865, "YES": 19.070156886304176} | 1 | will-i-be-able-to-order-a-selfdrivi | 3778.2876320262612 | Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi service without a driver in SF by 3/31/23 | 1675293482157 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.304948494635413 | True | play | YES | public | 1665702946633 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 13, 8:24pm: I'm on the Waymo and Cruise waitlist but have not yet been accepted as an early user.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 16, 12:20am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will I be able to order a self-dri... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675293482157 | 380 | CarsonGale | 1675293519913 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039684}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": ... | ["technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles", "carsons-important-markets"] | 0.5 | 1675293462049 | 1675293515629 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6730898866278386 | TvKx66IyRGIXN5BO0gL0 | {"NO": 548.2617314081183, "YES": 1302.4059612953815} | 0.4643052858760483 | will-a-selfdriving-taxi-service-be | 1670.8956130800955 | Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 12/31/24 | 1735700340000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.39666323266686 | False | basic | public | 1665703265229 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 13, 8:21pm: In SF on a ride of my choosing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 13, 11:00pm: To be more accurate I will look at 5 potential trips in SF and take the median of the results.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.1805391828192346} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 23.58133829845034, "platformFee": 5.606215654111866, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1718815948209 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039684}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": ... | ["technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles", "carsons-important-markets"] | 0.5 | 1718815945130 | 1718812627761 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40361309768272124 | YrQ6jZbI1xhpY2TyQvJ9 | {"NO": 318.2666567052393, "YES": 4709.7706069725} | 0.043732849766834656 | will-the-next-agent-007-after-no-ti | 16934.189912590515 | Will the next Agent 007 (after "No Time To Die") be black? | 1735707540000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.286521721531573 | False | basic | public | 1665704000212 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Daniel Craig saying goodbye to his role as James Bond, many fans of 007 are asking for changes for the franchise, so it can stay relevant in current times. One of such changes might have to do with who plays the British secret agent in future ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.00854854705522455} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 9.610117327703803, "platformFee": 0.2874012132886634, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1125 | Predictor | 1718936275567 | 0 | 2 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1665704000580}, {"name": "James Bond", "slug": "james-bond", "groupId": "37940368-8d43-445a-960b-e1e2bc4c1d0a", "createdTime": 1699146748177}, {"name": "🎆 New ... | ["entertainment", "james-bond", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1718936272497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6459404657280156 | VYGPnwzsiaFCgGC9CQca | {"NO": 294.08968116994794, "YES": 151.3296623988109} | 0 | will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the | 183.3372535318624 | Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Politburo Standing Committee following the 20th Party Congress? | 1666324740000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.88595154844994 | True | play | NO | public | 1665705402278 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Hu Chunhua is announced as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hu is only 59 and would be the first the generation... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666526103629 | 200 | BTE | 1666499496822 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1665705402643}, {"name": "Chinese Communist Party 20th National Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq",... | ["china", "ccp-20th-party-congress"] | 0.5 | 1666298290711 | 1666499496026 | 0.7799999999999995 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.3050058674042808 | ozk9JsOhkkzycN6OQO9d | {"NO": 768.5988447120693, "YES": 1448.4889944621625} | 0.1888837814474803 | will-a-new-super-smash-bros-game-be | 1793.8840398934412 | Will a new Super Smash Bros. game be released before 2026? | 1767178800000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.717780275169513 | False | basic | public | 1665706253988 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A 'deluxe' version of another game counts; a port with no new characters, stages, or gamemodes doesn't.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.008400385346260975} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7199693172636449, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1718561284872 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2FWoZtdm7C._for_Nintendo_Switch?alt=media&token=c585b3c2-d858-4151-b37a-ec40bb38db59 | 16 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665706527233}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1665706525694}] | ["nintendo", "gaming"] | 0.5 | 1718561281795 | 1668657806210 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47156601927656455 | YcYMhABkB2QoK7vBEPd3 | {"NO": 129.27487161428346, "YES": 198.32589944496783} | 0 | will-the-nasdaq100-resolve-at-above | 84.73104209583707 | Will the Nasdaq-100 resolve at above 11,000 on October 14th, 2022? | 1665774000000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9876721240382722 | True | play | NO | public | 1665706302269 | horse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665777798547 | 160 | horse | 1665771404711 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 1665771400724 | 0.36776210210885624 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49467318241989744 | Xr2XV8ijqkNQceBoBSP9 | {"NO": 165.83518641464684, "YES": 241.70206739765788} | 0.40178827504501524 | will-a-new-ace-attorney-game-be-rel | 125.64279027541751 | Will a new Ace Attorney game be released before 2027? | 1798714800000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1665709859015 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Remasters and such don't count.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 200 | NcyRocks | 1709574600117 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665710446238}, {"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1665710444511}, {"name": "Entertainment a... | ["nintendo", "gaming", "entertainment", "ancient-markets", "visual-novels"] | 0.5 | 1705653197140 | 1665725994751 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4401600983714447 | 3GaeklGCAPbFvTB3qKpQ | {"NO": 120.51408191832287, "YES": 221.0860819233274} | 0 | will-penn-state-beat-michigan-on-sa | 76.41416074417327 | Will Penn State beat Michigan on Saturday? | 1665863453245 | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.039213431439464 | True | play | NO | public | 1665712352326 | BCG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Michigan is at home and fovored by 6.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 13, 9:52pm: ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665863453245 | 160 | BruceGrugett | 1665749712737 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1665712352695}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1665749712577 | 0.2999999999999991 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7593151111716158 | MXHHPy63zTIdHZDNtK8U | {"NO": 1218.5315643170338, "YES": 916.1306659028494} | 0.8075503847881824 | will-breath-of-the-wild-2-tears-of | 1312.0316673300754 | Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time? | 1925002740000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.63188293083608 | False | basic | public | 1665712666996 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if Tears of the Kingdom appears on the list below on 12/31/30.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_video_games_considered_the_best", "type"... | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1706235765863 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1673394410123}, {"name": "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom", "slug": "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0rzViuhetWiDL54... | ["gaming", "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "nintendo", "entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1706235765719 | 1691860856662 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2155567299547374 | pxZib4aGe7p7DVvUlcaE | {"NO": 971.5997389763609, "YES": 28460.07272462733} | 0 | will-liz-truss-be-prime-minister-of | 65491.24773420175 | Will Liz Truss be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023? | 1672491540000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.45894089905086854 | True | basic | NO | public | 1665716741007 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Can Liz Truss Survive?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://news.yahoo.com/liz-truss-survive-145156066.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672628082973 | 3000 | SG | 1672478568620 | 0 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 112 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665716741407}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "EIV7jGjL3jhXPJmief8lB37F8su2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1668622644799}] | ["uk-politics", "free-money"] | 0.5 | 1672478568462 | 1666484639462 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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C8jv8K378ijTq2yohllR | bounty-market-why-do-potatoes-affec | 614.178914630593 | [bounty market] Why do potatoes affect my productivity/mood so much? | 1667777974814 | Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.698042609631505 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665768675381 | ^,^ Épi | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bounty market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is bounty-tiered (PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT UNDER YOUR ANSWER SO I CAN TIP IT):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1705416994237 | 560.0000000000001 | epiphanie_gedeon | 1705417880963 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzht0r_Wd81YAWA-OvNNPddGK7Y7RC-HxeNO25a=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "76f7c098a131", "prob": 0.02995113113265271, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.38594414976015884, "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 12.499851316555393, "textFts": "", "contractId": "C8jv8K378ijTq2yohllR", "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "createdTime": 166... | 4 | 13 | [{"name": "Life intervention", "slug": "life-intervention", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "hlgJn9tiQAnKxx07j5bc", "createdTime": 1665768692003}, {"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "cr... | ["joyvoidjoys-personal-questions", "slime-mold-time-mold", "life-intervention", "bounty-markets", "potato-mystery"] | 1666995437748 | 1705417878323 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.42978950754730344 | k8eXJcxPIoRlYqbR8rA8 | {"NO": 90.36184218857262, "YES": 236.28367875952253} | 0.22375420960679657 | will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-12921fa25e45 | 209.55215197315178 | Will Artemis I launch by the end of 2022, conditional on not launching by the end of November? | 1668606914196 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3525828772242185 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665771055434 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if it launches before December.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it launches in December.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it launches after... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668606914196 | 140 | Jenny | 1668577416303 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Artemis 1", "slug": "artemis-1", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "DPCQseWt9F0Lbobl1jOQ", "createdTime": 1665771074230}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1665771062788}, {"name": "Artemis program... | ["artemis-program", "space", "artemis-1"] | 0.5 | 1668577416201 | 1665779008783 | 0.22375420960679654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.03634992414579654 | exbsVeBUTRwHUehhNKAK | {"NO": 874.491866754279, "YES": 4829.820531951384} | 0 | this-market-will-resolve-no-on-dec | 46933.91186929903 | This market will resolve NO on Dec 31st, 2023. I will buy YES. | 1704085140000 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.531625327463185 | True | basic | NO | public | 1665776351642 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I plan of reinvesting ~50% of unique investor bonuses, market tips, and etc. on this market in buying YES. I'm not going to stress too much about accounting, but I will try to keep up with a profits as they come in. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704125745535 | 1000 | Duncn | 1704125746128 | 0.2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1665776351942}, {"name": "Free Mana", "slug": "free-mana", "groupId": "6Kc95X62qKLbgghiIhu0", "createdTime": 1686947963476}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug"... | ["interest-rates", "free-mana", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.13515673159541175 | 0.5 | 1704045408836 | 1668307547374 | 0.01 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.01383806923804978 | weL1MYKlehQ4OUbgooT4 | {"NO": 1252.0332874558917, "YES": 4527.598950509283} | 0 | what-is-the-riskfree-interest-rate | 16943.73644285022 | What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold until Election Day? | 1667887140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3488658455580524 | True | basic | NO | public | 1665776632404 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to NO on November 8, 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This exists as a baseline to calibrate other election markets trading at extreme probabilities.", "type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668012803079 | 1360 | SG | 1667883542628 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 16 | [{"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1665776707334}] | ["interest-rates"] | 0.5 | 1667883541146 | 1666145105596 | 0.0038653891288418117 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4347799946144922 | QunwUmxDDNdgODB7Lyjd | {"NO": 1263.4524979664507, "YES": 1298.5341270925342} | 0.41 | what-will-bidens-approval-rating-be | 701.654309984952 | What will Biden's approval rating be before Election Day? | 1667887140000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.29203787680881477 | True | basic | MKT | public | 1665777310384 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves PROB to Biden's approval rating for November 7th, 2022 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "according to 538", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/", "class": "n... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667890778520 | 1280 | SG | 1667302220011 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1665777310699}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181870090}] | ["us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1667302217200 | 1665777375544 | False | 0.41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4370773270867967 | 9TnhIcA7Y39BTEB2VbHF | {"NO": 102.46213414410477, "YES": 199.99999999999986} | 1 | will-i-have-to-send-more-mana-to-ar | 60 | Will I have to send more mana to @ArbitrageBot before the end of 2022? | 1667072025546 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2784986155129885 | True | play | YES | public | 1665778724354 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have given ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "GYwh8DpU6tS0uY9dx8bGWczxZM02", "label": "ArbitrageBot"}}, {"text": " a total of about $6.5k and it currently has $4k in cash. Will I have to give it more mana before the end of t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667072025546 | 140 | Jenny | 1667072058789 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1665778724717}] | ["trading-bots"] | 0.5 | 1665797405232 | 1667072050443 | 0.28457983170436746 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14425191085166966 | n4w65Ao8Zp5ay4Xsk6iv | {"NO": 439.8735038386195, "YES": 849.9009447972867} | 0 | by-2024-a-significant-fraction-of-p | 1016.6658150359713 | By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially conscious | 1704063540000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 6.156383674493296e-16 | 1.550058068141431 | True | play | NO | public | 1665779491732 | Magnus Hambleton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will be judged extremely subjectively based on where the industry discussion is at and informed by any relevant surveys. I will try to be as fair as possible.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704211141117 | 520 | Mag | 1704211213773 | 0.1 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130038121}] | ["new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.10633656625617452 | 0.5 | 1702712511572 | 1704211212427 | 0.08 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17443810886815822 | D7nELOzUb7JcBijT3y1c | {"NO": 775.2486917172287, "YES": 2827.022299736459} | 0.05476979690807558 | by-2025-we-will-have-made-an-artifi | 3100.125505383115 | By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience | 1735685940000 | xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.972101678028498 | False | basic | public | 1665779634850 | Magnus Hambleton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should be fairly easy to tell if/when this happens, or at least if there is serious debate around whether it has happened.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -0.0938396887632106, "month": -0.09383968876321043} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 10.489564709773308, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Mag | 1719723301072 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c | 15 | 1 | 11 | 0.5 | 1719723297940 | 1692204674685 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5099080941211968 | xSCAYL7ugSC75yZcQghB | {"NO": 934.1475693584642, "YES": 189.73017441784899} | 1 | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1bac0929f66a | 4369.815563896696 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.00 on October 17, 2022? | 1666033200000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0632561619435386 | True | play | YES | public | 1665780843685 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666036904163 | 460 | Predictor | 1666032605855 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1665780844122}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1666032604464 | 1666014054265 | 0.8366716434735096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3308276203006002 | 9oP9v7US2duFOIHu3UyU | {"NO": 954.25949215097, "YES": 1072.7923679043124} | 0.3054392305687342 | will-psilocybin-be-legal-to-sell-in | 765.6491382566126 | Will psilocybin be legal to sell in San Francisco by end of 2025? | 1767236340000 | LgTeMorH5MgAZNQLzZuqM3XITI03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.586476038172261 | False | basic | public | 1665781134479 | Emily Fuhriman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "week": -3.3306690738754696e-16, "month": -3.3306690738754696e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EmilyFuhriman | 1707196213799 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2cPYUYar5-yroMoD9WB8Lv_eQz5vVN9dDoHSZl=s96-c | 2 | 20 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "LgTeMorH5MgAZNQLzZuqM3XITI03", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1665781134924}] | ["san-francisco"] | 0.5 | 1707196213632 | 1665789423069 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7417849609621135 | zuqx2ALUrVqFsZFcPCWV | {"NO": 1213.4028872865283, "YES": 911.3577419750285} | 0.7927389972182021 | will-psilocybin-be-legal-to-sell-in-cbd7bf077ae1 | 329.6434852563776 | Will psilocybin be legal to sell in SF by 2030? | 1925002740000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 6.310293266355628e-15 | 9.618826060051338 | False | basic | public | 1665781874762 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1711273122715 | 0.3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "San Francisco", "slug": "san-francisco", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "77nEsKGsORflUYGveLSX", "createdTime": 1665781875118}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi", "create... | ["san-francisco", "carsons-important-markets"] | 0.09256811248903948 | 0.5 | 1711273119426 | 1665782003077 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8045157184515963 | gfhVYX6gYQOQcxBLBTpW | {"NO": 2263.5909768030087, "YES": 178.61546324069766} | 1 | will-all-manifold-meeting-notes-be | 3267.0380268020845 | Will the vast majority of internal and external Manifold meeting notes be public on April 14 2023? | 1681534740000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.3280716108711506 | True | play | YES | public | 1665783351317 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We currently publish all our meeting notes on Notion publicly. Will we keep doing this?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: This question is mostly about meetings we have with external indiv... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681536857009 | 380 | JamesGrugett | 1681529553381 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665783351743}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1681529553118 | 1665811675221 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4920514761544267 | 6jgPQXAp4Nf9Jz3WnO5z | {"NO": 2.403288630962379, "YES": 6790} | 0 | will-the-usd-close-over-153-jpy-on | 6670 | Will the USD close over 153 JPY on 2022.10.31 ? | 1667385566097 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.9405224939210015 | True | play | NO | public | 1665784265302 | Tim P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "USD/JPY (JPY=X) Live Rate, Chart & News - Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPY%3DX?p=JPY%3DX", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667385566097 | 120 | TimP | 1667385471340 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Currency", "slug": "currency", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "9dU059eOFc5Mgw9iSO8N", "createdTime": 1665784489074}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665784265739}, {"name": "F... | ["economics-default", "currency", "forex"] | 0.5 | 1667385471138 | 1665784610682 | 0.004510040009024675 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3552840907653596 | oZvWC5pnvNKvTq56NnBz | {"NO": 97.5478390173605, "YES": 2840.0391574683704} | 0 | in-6-months-will-super-people-have | 3709.3586364591224 | In 6 months will SUPER PEOPLE have MORE than 15,000 concurrent players? | 1681541940000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.637412395903807 | True | play | NO | public | 1665784617167 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "This market is for tracking how well the game SUPER PEOPLE is doing in 6 months. This is based on a conversation me and the developer of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SNKRX", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1681572505007 | 520 | SneakySly | 1681572602575 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665784617544}] | ["gaming"] | 0.5 | 1681499975373 | 1681572599098 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5852409139615387 | utFAPJ4iN59ITr6GXQsF | {"NO": 386.5742835829054, "YES": 512.8628769267293} | 0.5154054416759088 | what-of-manifold-users-like-that-ma | 365.12215856450894 | What % of Manifold users like that @ManifoldDream posts on every new market? | 1666421940000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6123562682585981 | True | play | MKT | public | 1665785033060 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://strawpoll.com/embed/polls/GPgV3Aq9EZa", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the proportion of Yes votes as a fraction of all votes. I like the beh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666493470291 | 460 | Austin | 1666412222399 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Manifold Dream", "slug": "manifold-dream", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "t6WSzS2BSHrz3Tke0v6E", "createdTime": 1666073693405}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 166578503346... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-dream", "trading-bots"] | 0.5 | 1666412221023 | 1665786261582 | 0.5154054416759088 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6411346029485855 | 3Ofm7HahaUhzuxD9L87y | {"NO": 1099.309454525277, "YES": 931.7172113397102} | 0.6782410711613973 | will-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-be-o | 559.362673630812 | Will a new nuclear power plant be operational in Sweden by 2035? | 2082776340000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.639187901970232 | False | basic | public | 1665785141358 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by the end of 2035, at least one new nuclear power plant is operational (meaning supplying power) in Sweden. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.22904924416438474, "platformFee": 0.22904924416438474, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jack | 1713454052879 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1665785141707}, {"name": "Sweden", "slug": "sweden", "userId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "groupId": "jx3BNdPVFyaq7blARtkJ", "createdTime": 1669120132085}, {"name": "Nuclear", "slug": "... | ["energy", "sweden", "nuclear"] | 0.5 | 1713454049610 | 1708425675444 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3127679445354667 | LyqcBEx8SsDD0Vyn5mUo | {"NO": 972.960873385913, "YES": 1033.2156804184194} | 0.3000000000000001 | will-any-country-implement-a-univer | 447.0354395654855 | Will any country implement a universal basic income by 2026? | 1767178800000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.358135995381378 | False | basic | public | 1665785486503 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.7353673967122618, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1716974684540 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665787701059}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1716974680705 | 1683093779142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22327795177495655 | uJHFMJhNEVLqFAXBZXSM | {"NO": 303.6202087252914, "YES": 16290.694479200018} | 0 | planecrash-will-carissa-and-keltham | 30956.912608989718 | [planecrash] Will Carissa and Keltham get back together, before the story ends? | 1696885490229 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2829566568973432 | True | play | NO | public | 1665787914603 | Tim P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Right now the story is at: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the meeting of their minds | Glowfic Constellation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.glowfic.com/replie... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696885490229 | 780 | TimP | 1696884636103 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 36 | 0 | 32 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1665787914976}, {"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "LRxT6x94MJfMwveEF8gTDkrTxto1", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1671438523995}] | ["glowfic", "planecrash"] | 0.5 | 1696884635934 | 1696884579574 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5893344249711587 | u1Ibdy9bkKso9OddPiha | {"NO": 291.06530076186834, "YES": 176.3161115162845} | 1 | will-manifolds-90-calibrationatclos | 84 | Will Manifold's 90% calibration-at-close be between 85% and 95%? | 1666419627780 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.595116794358235 | True | play | YES | public | 1665788796780 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm rerunning / updating my [Manifold calibration analysis code](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-markets-python", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666419627780 | 220 | vluzko | 1666419746092 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665788797217}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1666326701397 | 1666419743697 | 0.7031793259728952 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3664864600995956 | 3MAaPqQarz8ZvTLBiYo3 | {"NO": 766.2671132372468, "YES": 1324.9526553411017} | 0.250692758686446 | will-the-us-implement-a-carbon-tax | 3617.124941511045 | Will the US implement a carbon tax by 2030? | 1893409200000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0.05047733056512829 | 9.770057395973257 | False | basic | public | 1665789085609 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.051187447146688186} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 17.88376252820405, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1719396772971 | 1.3 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1665965896714}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1665965900763}] | ["climate", "us-politics"] | 0.11697614949658541 | 0.5 | 1719396769862 | 1691131663496 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8242706671150681 | CnQr1nGUGrDyCkfvEwTG | {"NO": 1409.5961704208273, "YES": 233.745964027044} | 1 | at-market-midpoint-will-manifold-be | 2084.3206633920486 | At market midpoint will Manifold be well calibrated? | 1666419151637 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1098201208333585 | True | play | YES | public | 1665789452288 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm rerunning / updating my [Manifold calibration analysis code](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-markets-python", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-mark... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666419151637 | 460 | vluzko | 1667491076070 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665789452714}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1666412629676 | 1667491071144 | 0.9658543438772075 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4HsXfaJg22kGLEBaC1DY | which-manifold-group-will-have-the | 33 | Which Manifold group will have the best midpoint calibration for the 90% bucket? | 1666421940000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.93323370649558 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665789825882 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm rerunning/updating my [Manifold analysis code](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-markets-python", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/vluzko/manifold-markets-python", "... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666902830476 | 340 | vluzko | 1666734903188 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "27cf64a5a20b", "prob": 0.5653230821414439, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.48574356204525, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 45.73858822485658, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4HsXfaJg22kGLEBaC1DY", "createdTime": 1665789826532, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 2 | 5 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665789826389}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1666420207298 | 1666734900443 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.13462777345170598 | cVNBv9n5PKbGuq7WryWb | {"NO": 925.3164037914352, "YES": 1249.3992590194207} | 0.10331441393437724 | ccp-loses-control-of-a-province-or | 601.0323707214746 | CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030 | 1893427260000 | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.991901666439428 | False | basic | public | 1665792237967 | Harrison Lucas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if before 2030 the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party loses control of one or more provinces or Special Administrative Regions (SARs, e.g. Hong Kong, Macau) that were under their control during October 15, 2022. ", "type": "t... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HarrisonLucas | 1699845263231 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1665792382381}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665792238547}, {"name": "World", "... | ["politics-default", "china", "world-default", "collective-autonomy", "asia"] | 0.0977969316526142 | 0.5 | 1699845263118 | 1665792331036 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 0nGTcVFhHPnsZcm1Azbq | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | what-existing-markets-make-the-cool | 0 | What existing markets make the coolest Manifold Dream prompts? | 1665792763073 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665792686084 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the 5 Manifold markets that I deem to create the coolest images when fed into Manifold Dream. Markets must have been posted before this one.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665792763073 | 100 | NcyRocks | 1665792784515 | 0 | 0 | 0 | True | 2 | 0.5 | 1665792782494 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6016079932659594 | zQ3IwvLs6DVpdsWXUHDz | {"NO": 260.44885952882817, "YES": 160.07219089910325} | 0 | will-the-green-bay-packers-beat-the | 159.79349266212256 | Will the Green Bay Packers beat the New York Jets on Sunday, 10/16/22? | 1665939540000 | 5wtfWB2k6iOiIexu4eQUN87ARry1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7583582080046392 | True | play | NO | public | 1665792888515 | Joel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665969859132 | 200 | akrasiac | 1665938345048 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoelPollen%2FvPm-32QtjT.0?alt=media&token=edd07ffa-65fa-4cd9-a2a3-68b0dddc9617 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "5wtfWB2k6iOiIexu4eQUN87ARry1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1665792889080}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1665938343777 | 1665793019823 | 0.7107339294906485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PnusPS3o8H09Fcs0On6g | what-existing-markets-make-the-cool-3373ad8656e2 | 38 | What existing markets make the coolest Manifold Dream prompts? | 1666436340000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.923348198101932 | True | play | MKT | public | 1665792897324 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the 5 Manifold markets that I deem to create the coolest images when fed into Manifold Dream.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Markets must have been posted before this one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666478202691 | 340 | NcyRocks | 1666477304624 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "acdee58f7fb9", "prob": 0.5250997689561017, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 53.26609111461173, "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.17385280405485, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PnusPS3o8H09Fcs0On6g", "createdTime": 1665792897502, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "dall-e", "slug": "dalle", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "r9JgcMNAppnRwnjOPDBA", "createdTime": 1665966920778}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665966909514}, {"name": "Man... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "dalle", "manifold-dream"] | 1666073371945 | 1666477302514 | {"0faef9bb5faf": 20, "1780677b9263": 20, "31aa5bea6900": 20, "a5e7fa0d2f6f": 20, "d31edec2f235": 20} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09849247264613402 | zqUJ5lEAX8XxU2QgwB4r | {"NO": 853.4465742989448, "YES": 2492.767089986135} | 0.03605620644916824 | will-wales-leave-the-uk-by-2030 | 3519.1621407096086 | Will Wales leave the UK by 2030? | 1893409200000 | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.366259864880037 | False | basic | public | 1665796284374 | N.C. Young | {"type": "doc"} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.03031361579078279} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.9458777873746635, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NcyRocks | 1718574538672 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665816184890}] | ["uk-politics"] | 0.5 | 1718574535607 | 1718308193970 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4164994501996557 | Ki3N1prf1VyyRXK9COY2 | {"NO": 941.9185151685067, "YES": 1075.0728476303993} | 0.3847617719131301 | will-aoe-iv-have-more-active-users | 689.7891257058579 | Will AoE IV have more active users on Steam than AoE II on 12/31/25? | 1767236340000 | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.752092834902829 | False | basic | public | 1665796497415 | Carson Gale | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.018953271430339425, "month": -0.018953271430339258} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 3.7943763277862446, "platformFee": 2.4517647111012124, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | CarsonGale | 1719904423516 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665796497874}] | ["gaming"] | 0.5 | 1719904420424 | 1665923385764 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5544792258430102 | aNX2Hon8de6BeDkhYf8S | {"NO": 627.5039220481132, "YES": 772.8806709235595} | 0.5026026566095675 | this-market-resolves-yes-if-it-hits | 6584.340975262951 | This market resolves YES if it hits 1% or NO if it hits 99% | 1672541940000 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.3240259891253937 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665801013757 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Conditions must be met after volume is higher than M$1000", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672551766227 | 720 | FranklinBaldo | 1672556948096 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 0 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1666008109550}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1666008094425}, {"name": "Whale Watc... | ["fun", "selfresolving", "whale-watching"] | 0.5 | False | 1672535075197 | 1672556944311 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2886015730421221 | 5QfS4cF4ejdLJANEeEnI | {"NO": 303.5333960662787, "YES": 608.395648573074} | 0 | poll-do-manifolders-like-rings-of-p | 619.6145214189377 | Poll: Do Manifolders like Rings of Power more than House of the Dragon? | 1666414740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2006283516457124 | True | play | NO | public | 1665802467010 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Rings of Power has a higher percentage of the vote than House of the Dragon at close time. Vote now!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://strawpoll.com/embed/polls/e7ZJOA0GKy3", "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666418275644 | 400 | SG | 1666380492969 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1665802564814}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1665802562413}, {"nam... | ["fun", "entertainment", "polls"] | 0.5 | 1666380492863 | 1666295411109 | 0.16832860992292528 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
h8lXQya0je5EJoD8YWOg | which-team-win-league-of-legends-wo | 1506.2658493266517 | Which team win League of Legends Worlds 2022? | 1667709212148 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.657817013981272 | True | play | 428ed1ccdab2 | public | 1665805009665 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the winning team.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If duplicate answers are submitted, only the first will be chosen.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667712518536 | 600 | jack | 1667713501075 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3eef115416be", "prob": 0.007617847661376755, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.056361174625131454, "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.342208228500139, "textFts": "", "contractId": "h8lXQya0je5EJoD8YWOg", "createdTime": 1665805010178, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665805010047}, {"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": ... | ["gaming", "league-of-legends-world-2022"] | 1667708804655 | 1667713499179 | {"428ed1ccdab2": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.47018664639798474 | 0GzvgkNd3Ow5uiAeg1kp | {"NO": 168.94244217782318, "YES": 1205.9133378044137} | 0 | will-allison-figure-out-who-it-is-b | 14975.988068441267 | Will allison figure out who it is before January 1, 2023? | 1672559940000 | 4RDyO21Tj5XfNnpQLcN6ooWSXjB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.139204979148412 | True | play | NO | public | 1665806443130 | pic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you want to know who \"it\" \"is\", you should ask Allison. As always, “[I]t depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672561322312 | 440 | pg | 1672556637533 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkWUg5DpuopoRXru2Clb0-vXevdDNFqgy_QAgu-Iw=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "4RDyO21Tj5XfNnpQLcN6ooWSXjB2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1665806443452}] | ["proofniks"] | 0.5 | 1672556637395 | 1666654250916 | 0.11 |
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