CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.8536753929254882

xZYa7vjSl7TxLZn7ykyz

{"NO": 3335.710060242058, "YES": 196.50456659569303}

0.9900035520512306

solar-eclipse-2024-boston

7062.2831612818845

Will the April 8, 2024 partial solar eclipse have coverage over 50% at 3:29 pm in Boston?

1712604540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665807153065

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if more than 50% of the sun is covered by the moon, when viewed from Boston on April 8, 2024 at 3:29 pm local time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rexolves NO if less than 50% is covered.", "type": "te...

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

340

Jenny

1712603919407

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

16

0

14

11

[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1665807366268}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1665807190816}, {"name": "Fun", "slug":...

["fun", "space", "free-money", "timekeeping"]

0.5

1712603916170

1680498201069

0.2718358688168798

g5uDSuEE9lKCyISDZS6S

{"NO": 108.22097046457051, "YES": 1426.7276196093605}

0

will-kevin-de-leon-and-gil-cedillo

1308.4579075933175

Will Kevin De León and Gil Cedillo resign from the Los Angeles City Council by October 31?

1667285940000

8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2

cpmm-1

0

2.5004587688153928

True

play

NO

public

1665812523703

Mike Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if both Kevin de León and Gil Cedillo resign their seats on the Los Angeles City Council by Monday, October 31 at 11:59 PM Pacific time. If either De León or Cedillo announces his resignation before the deadline, but t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667500164319

260

MikeChenSF

1667283006026

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c

12

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…c69-3be2b1249e7f

10

[{"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1665812524086}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665812531589}]

["california", "politics-default"]

0.5

1667283003397

1667278592178

0.02753726492972617

0.18058374363962718

243JXo3KjT8OC9medTDf

{"NO": 945.0439792347717, "YES": 1098.6046496332308}

0.15936474833386416

will-northern-ireland-leave-the-uk

670.0339002272895

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?

1893409200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.775938023148722

False

basic

public

1665817885681

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.023079049415151903}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.079014840868175, "platformFee": 0.24759175713671377, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1718923589478

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

20

0

https://firebasestorage.…e37-1ae339466591

13

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665918317678}]

["uk-politics"]

0.5

1718923586396

1718451835494

0.6524539667681059

5g6Z6GJ9yCmnOlKAJEUo

{"NO": 61.71407157672437, "YES": 937.3872913198852}

0

will-liz-truss-outlast-the-daily-st

1500.395836933925

Will Liz Truss outlast the Daily Star's lettuce?

1666269716310

jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3

cpmm-1

0

1.7681098739777585

True

play

NO

public

1665818668852

John Roxton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Daily Star (a UK tabloid newspaper) is speculating whether the current PM Liz Truss will last longer in her job than a Tesco value iceberg lettuce bought by the newspaper will remain good to eat. They have thoughtfully set up a live video feed ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666269716310

440

JohnRoxton

1666269707363

0

https://firebasestorage.…b32-7b23aa4cf70a

0

18

0

21

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665818669378}]

["uk-politics"]

0.5

1666269286132

1666269706316

0.10999999999999992

0.30189437952420517

FDk0ADO9W59Qmr6BA8w8

{"NO": 143.7996902468469, "YES": 633.9563033753932}

1

will-the-us-prevent-pandemics-act-b

403.95630337539336

Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?

1675227540000

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-1

0

1.9169988516029977

True

play

YES

public

1665822382662

Pepe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Earlier this year, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act", "type": "text", "marks": [{"typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676942379665

240

Pepe

1675222224089

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

3

0

4

5

[{"name": "Biosecurity", "slug": "biosecurity", "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "groupId": "DOMpq3Oo28HvvygsRCH2", "createdTime": 1665822383015}]

["biosecurity"]

0.5

1675222223811

1665825410960

0.09

0.5

939cQr07YVGIYUIAUdrT

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-a-predictions-generating-bot-b

0

Will a predictions generating bot be launched in Manifold by the end of 2023?

1665837386223

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665837183739

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665837386223

100

Keepcalmandchill

1665837289084

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

0

2

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665837194329}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1665837287318

0.5

0.34559852259486085

YwDaKnx2QUU1P1ogMx7l

{"NO": 1347.2134538148791, "YES": 6035.190816412969}

0.10545674379816658

will-a-text-prompt-based-ai-music-g

146620.65280624543

Will a text prompt based AI music generator that most of the time cannot be told apart from human musicians be publicly available by the end of 2023?

1704027540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0.012059646170422395

0.23229402097318874

True

basic

CANCEL

public

1665837313404

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolved yes if it beats human music at least 50% of the time in a general audience or expert poll across at least 10 samples of different prompts (can be instrumental, no limit on genres).", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704098475178

2485

Keepcalmandchill

1704143114682

2.7

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

18

606

0

1

304

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665837313739}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1700859833474}]

["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2249203053076207

0.5

1704018871790

1704143114192

0.11

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

0.7730238723428402

3zan32txaqvdLwQLF9Yv

{"NO": 655.1999031175593, "YES": 250.6068428745307}

1

will-a-market-generating-bot-be-lau

671.6876476979721

Will a market generating bot be launched in Manifold by the end of 2022?

1672446400824

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

1.66311191140346

True

play

YES

public

1665837456926

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A bot that automatically creates new markets.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672446400824

340

Keepcalmandchill

1672430161740

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

12

0

13

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665837457283}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672428364392

1672430158711

0.9

0.52901602695898

MWhIYlpjizhDr08n2jlC

{"NO": 805.8203185673024, "YES": 1191.8709815480602}

0.43162502493615107

with-ethereum-outperform-bitcoin-ov

2827.1155820401495

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over three years from 2023?

1767333540000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0.11015680967739415

9.641403532743883

False

basic

public

1665837959718

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similar to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/MarcioDiaz/will-ethereum-outperform-bitcoin-du", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", but fo...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.021755145882453697}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.5021517553139836, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

BoltonBailey

1719451912390

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

36

1

17

[{"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 1665837960096}, {"name": "Bitcoin", "slug": "bitcoin", "groupId": "WBeBD6FyMd0NvSL0qjMb", "createdTime": 1697871313464}, {"name": "Ethereum", "slug": "ethereum", "groupId": "IY...

["crypto-prices", "bitcoin", "ethereum"]

0.1431886898043901

0.5

1719451909279

1691657118333

0.33501526921738506

07hha4bB35ICm8oSB4N8

{"NO": 106.29842413949768, "YES": 5167.534325616911}

0

the-surge-will-target-gas-per-block

7257.8229730699995

"The Surge": Will target gas per Ethereum block double by end of 2023?

1704088740000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.0080559418504307

True

play

NO

public

1665840031720

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "London upgrade", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ethereum.org/en/history/#london", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decor...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704126265685

480

BoltonBailey

1704126266106

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

21

0

1

13

[{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665840032071}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 16658...

["ethereum-roadmap", "crypto-speculation", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703794028565

1702390970502

0.01

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.2555512715248989

uRtYjlIDBSFk6Trst8Yl

{"NO": 143.56186847598215, "YES": 4876.825974183226}

0

the-splurge-will-ethereum-have-prop

9215.839514536943

"The Scourge": Will Ethereum have Proposer-Builder Separation by end of 2023?

1704088740000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.0957541302103175

True

play

NO

public

1665840454677

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the Ethereum L1 protocol uses some kind of proposer-builder separation by the resolution date. You can read about PBS ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://no...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704126261603

460

BoltonBailey

1704126262315

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

2

20

0

1

9

[{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665840455102}, {"name": "Blockchain Technology", "slug": "blockchain-technology", "groupId": "22d2a631-7306-45bf-ab26-2bdc6148bf41", "createdTime": 1695315561742}, {"nam...

["ethereum-roadmap", "blockchain-technology", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703794049981

1702391167888

0.01

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.4671733819635429

zCYoUTxxIV0sSP2KGTk5

{"NO": 231.31948597698022, "YES": 10178.457634340295}

0

will-the-80k-podcast-slow-down-robs

19201.534042351224

Will the 80k podcast slow down Rob's speech to match his guest so that you can speed up both of their speech together?

1704067140000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0.07273928260764133

0.7874065452782215

True

basic

NO

public

1665844757472

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can be an alternative version of the podcast. Market resolves end of 2023 or if a non-parody episode is produced in this form. If guests are sped up to match rob, this market resolves positively. If it hasn't happened by market close, market resolv...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704175559005

1525

NathanpmYoung

1704175559267

1.4

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

2

80

0

1

50

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1665844757799}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703119287247}]

["effective-altruism", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.16244669906402015

0.5

1704023065505

1697079793140

0.02

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

0.7932828711774412

XeQnWmtyYdsKzhiA9vJs

{"NO": 96308.3653816434, "YES": 720.2043652678594}

1

will-my-relationship-with-austin-la

234995.0585368749

Will my relationship with Austin last a year?

1696564740000

z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1

cpmm-1

6.487313819997439e-05

-0.31833085372125236

True

basic

YES

public

1665849483590

Rachel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES iff on October 5th, 2023, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "label": "Austin"}}, {"text": " and I still consider ourselves to be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "together", "type": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1696566779363

2060

rachel

1696563241319

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c

3

124

0

1

https://firebasestorage.…35c-7adaa5f7525f

68

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1665849484025}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822553}]

["dating", "sex-and-love"]

0.1568191781768966

0.5

1696563241024

1696532802909

1

0.7587580323037219

Oe5Tm9i4wIkHTmrMMJPg

{"NO": 1294.5107935733615, "YES": 161.0641214829475}

1

will-the-announced-google-pixel-tab

2104.4367191571505

Will the announced Google Pixel Tablet include the speaker dock?

1698940735076

ZdGhVVOdZqX819u7TF4k046W2e92

cpmm-1

0

2.0350762961702253

True

play

YES

public

1665849821781

Gunne

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During the recent #madebygoogle Google event on October 6th they announced a Google Pixel tablet for 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://youtu.be/2NGjNQVbydc", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1698940735076

300

Gunneone

1698764663621

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjcE6LJtZHT6ux-SyRkITOlJbypw9tv1Nf0p5SBTQ=s96-c

12

0

4

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ZdGhVVOdZqX819u7TF4k046W2e92", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1665849822143}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1698764663453

1698184152282

0.96

0.3696310432210726

1XJbH7zYqUAqmITX3UlN

{"NO": 577.5714318567956, "YES": 3128.8035482644086}

0.0976710628702125

hollywoodlevel-aigenerated-feature

11266.353147660257

hollywood-level AI-generated feature film by 2026

1767254460000

aQjVobfklEZEg54qJQsCSg0Xbiu1

cpmm-1

0

9.789097304565587

False

basic

public

1665854525248

Michael

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Discussion: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/MichaelTrazzi/status/1581331967877910529", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/MichaelTrazzi/status/1581331967877910529", "class": null, "ta...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.05529363092195223, "month": -0.05529363092195223}

0

{"creatorFee": 36.92982174458607, "platformFee": 7.752149020876253, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1110

MichaelTrazzi

1720120770738

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlXjyBVjgpYbCWmmQHqvOw9OFT-wDk_SZpATNGevg=s96-c

0

85

2

4

47

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "aQjVobfklEZEg54qJQsCSg0Xbiu1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665854525698}]

["ai"]

0.5

1720120767540

1716934822283

0.36585390193753436

kLeUtxkG6oxQgyoa6DB2

{"NO": 208.10292436171068, "YES": 275.2488458427295}

0

will-the-denver-broncos-beat-the-la

195.5088701730678

Will the Denver Broncos beat the LA Chargers on Monday night?

1666052100000

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

1.5612727537651427

True

play

NO

public

1665855235510

BCG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chargers are at home and are favord by 4.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666069451422

240

BruceGrugett

1666041851893

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

8

0

1

9

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1665859549509}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1666041850575

1665855296815

0.3037110271512364

0.2306773779761608

NRlOFYyDihBnEQ0PRB0U

{"NO": 160.18905028678319, "YES": 158.7611528014951}

0.0588235294117647

taco-tuesday-1018-dianes-how-many-p

45

Taco Tuesday 10/18 @ Diane's: How many people will come?

1666508340000

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.7377168572715567

True

play

MKT

public

1665855800753

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, eating at 7pm. Drinks, desserts, and especially new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Special this week: We'r...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666561665354

160

Austin

1666337683532

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

3

0

1

5

[{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1665855801064}]

["sf-events"]

0.2352941176470588

1666337681726

1665855863130

0.0588235294117647

Q1dR3zYboPvqhFc62rlA

-how-will-i-carve-my-pumpkin-this-h

408.17894898810346

🎃 How will I carve my pumpkin this Hallowe'en? 🎃

1667178000000

QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.936642207752204

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665857439801

Robin Foster

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to creative fun suggestions I end up using. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667500587388

420

RobinFoster

1666885182728

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxP5vDmtsmb1gnc6d5kJGNemnV0TXwJ0tDQX32=s96-c

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "627837975ab9", "prob": 0.5794340647724265, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 44.407363553647805, "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 32.23183709653981, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Q1dR3zYboPvqhFc62rlA", "createdTime": 1665857440316, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

8

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1665857440171}]

["fun"]

1666885182305

1666881825948

True

0.31115938360210627

wBiR6cmMURzw18YXrWlz

{"NO": 973.254498860111, "YES": 1004.4657583185625}

0.30443430734652416

will-an-aidrawn-movie-have-a-rating-2af72800a437

1119.4202786912444

Will an AI-drawn movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2025?

1735711140000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.573201803329646

False

basic

public

1665861518956

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -0.015565692653475904, "month": -0.015565692653476182}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0691512077865208, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1719756865841

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

29

1

20

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665861519349}]

["ai"]

0.5

1719756862736

1708261257240

0.45558121144009417

IC4g25xhx3xlQBhakafX

{"NO": 24.5492836019107, "YES": 7752.170207038379}

0

the-purge-will-ethereum-change-self

8405.41211468966

"The Purge": Will Ethereum change SELFDESTRUCT by 2024-01-01?

1704175140000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.9248331941308914

True

play

NO

public

1665861730240

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vitalik Buterin has ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "proposed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://hackmd.io/@vbuterin/selfdestruct", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " Ethereum protocol upgrades that ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704184941981

480

BoltonBailey

1704184942226

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

22

0

1

7

[{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665861730554}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737...

["ethereum-roadmap", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704166961453

1702391325209

0

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.2627750245796691

MQYmYEhDEFMJD4CSEKDX

{"NO": 77.71380943944678, "YES": 8633.871757773344}

0

the-splurge-will-ethereum-use-vdfs

9541.989348115942

"The Splurge": Will Ethereum use VDFs by 2024-01-01?

1704175140000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

2.699011852945165

True

play

NO

public

1665861932346

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the L1 Ethereum protocol uses Verifiable Delay Functions (VDFs) in any capacity by the close date. See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ethresear.ch/t/ve...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704184934111

340

BoltonBailey

1704184934326

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

1

15

0

1

7

[{"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 1665861932682}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e",...

["ethereum-roadmap", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "blockchain-technology"]

0.5

1704120106224

1702391550435

False

0

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

0.7307031855935786

N9AyEKzwa6i4FsVbgDc0

{"NO": 963.8954331669158, "YES": 482.4213359201694}

1

will-a-video-generation-model-be-pu

1562.024057260345

AI: Will a video generation model be publicly available by 2024?

1704088740000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0.02159262722096621

0.8346001088385884

True

play

YES

public

1665862466416

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weights, or DreamStudio quality API. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Limited beta releases or with viewpoint discrimination / censorship will not count. (Resolves YES even if some image types...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705073028113

600

Gigacasting

1705073028619

1.2

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

28

0

3

20

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665862466827}, {"name": "Gigacasting", "slug": "gigacasting", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "ypoGbkBreEXiPzcUAruE", "createdTime": 1671170275370}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Res...

["ai", "gigacasting", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1261607449789376

0.5

1702435757357

1700595078149

0.84

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

lb2p0JSvRuPHOc4Ba3Lr

who-will-be-the-third-user-banned-f

282.7428091841073

Who will be the third user banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?

1667488362492

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.741950394659786

True

play

8337dec5203b

public

1665865180500

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Yev/will-a-third-user-be-banned-from-ma", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manif...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667488362492

580

Jenny

1667492639156

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3a0959fb2faa", "prob": 0.07334019784571244, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.6506041806943015, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.85552791574097, "textFts": "", "contractId": "lb2p0JSvRuPHOc4Ba3Lr", "createdTime": 1665865181009, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

9

[{"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1665865282568}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665865285872}, {"name":...

["internet", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manibans"]

1667488269119

1667492638289

{"8337dec5203b": 100}

True

0.3785097381173436

lC7e9jE44QA0OoxqNON1

{"NO": 329.51915715625734, "YES": 8753.880675251805}

0

will-germany-legalize-cannabis-befo

22899.829143099312

Will Germany legalize Cannabis before 2024?

1704063540000

7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2

cpmm-1

0.1256646191816709

0.7184748705569834

True

basic

NO

public

1665867091530

Nick el Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve Yes if the law legalizing Cannabis in Germany comes into effect in 2023. In Geemany, Laws come into effect either on the date stated in the law itself or if not stated explicitly 14 days after the law was announced in the Bu...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145486702

1235

NickelChen

1704145487278

1.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c

1

67

0

1

36

[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1665867091934}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665867121706}, {"name": "🎆 Ne...

["germany", "politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.17025136542653915

0.5

1703341042676

1693507949874

0.02

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.6232902752753794

8Faoy24hOTKeOZpYtl63

{"NO": 674.0998719852023, "YES": 137.85116556997949}

1

will-a-third-user-be-banned-from-ma

733.1748868927575

Will a third user be banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?

1667489121104

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.6511470432520101

True

play

YES

public

1665869618081

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Yev/who-will-be-the-third-user-banned-f", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667489121104

280

Jenny

1667489309468

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

11

0

11

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665869618547}, {"name": "Internet", "slug": "internet", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "raDuDKuBOp5D9l7301XV", "createdTime": 1665869632761}, {"name":...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "internet", "manibans"]

0.5

1667488343989

1667489297902

0.8899999999999997

0.5

TPZ0Tt9abQW9c7uSDAGT

{"NO": 102, "YES": 98.0392156862745}

1

test-market-db8f84c0af64

2

test market

1665870022524

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.772784791060095

True

play

YES

public

1665869989129

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665870022524

100

IsaacKing

1665870069971

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

1

0

2

0.5

1665870006828

1665870068304

0.5

0.7370283147654684

rXKtEw3hHdNLgjz1LnKt

{"NO": 3269.8951727753188, "YES": 51.896249915286035}

1

will-anyone-have-at-least-10-proven

3876.168666381633

Will anyone have at least 10 "Proven Correct" badges by the end of 2022?

1666795745452

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

3.2278683290840555

True

play

YES

public

1665870827352

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will exclude markets where all trades are by the market creator, market creator's alts, and/or bots. I also reserve the right to exclude other markets if they look sus.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666795745452

180

Jenny

1666795795166

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

5

0

10

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665870827832}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1666708405263

1666795789308

0.9943691416625049

0.5

Npg1GdPPnYFDyxKv5oYf

{"NO": 82.64462809917357, "YES": 121}

0.4058276855647093

will-an-aigenerated-song-make-the-b

21

Will an AI-generated song make the Billboard Top 100 by 2024?

1665875892423

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.790729342901346

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665871191607

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665875892423

100

Gigacasting

1665871236275

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

0

2

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665871191946}]

["ai"]

0.5

1665871200686

1665871234360

0.4058276855647092

0.4492487457107404

7lKh8ini1DqEhCyXKWTl

{"NO": 208.42074835735062, "YES": 144.82262035918893}

0.5399999999999998

will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in

181.54854441997063

Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?

1950494340000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665871610375

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY0KWLanlLM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY0KWLanlLM", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-i...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

StochasticParrot

1683200244376

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

1

5

0

5

[{"name": "Animal Spirits", "slug": "animal-spirits", "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "groupId": "zeWwxa8E70Ascm33UPBW", "createdTime": 1683200324311}]

["animal-spirits"]

0.5

1683200244292

1678087260228

0.6333990642327395

P7zX19cwq4Mgvh5PwUgy

{"NO": 470.8621329112161, "YES": 377.90298149736435}

0

will-the-word-tranche-or-traunche-a

3931.0821739329954

Will the word TRANCHE (or TRAUNCHE) appear in at least 2 above-the-fold publications not referencing you-know-who or any of his markets by the end of April 15?

1681617540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

0.9444431919892426

True

play

NO

public

1665872092356

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703480595489

420

Jenny

1703480579273

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

18

0

51

13

[{"name": "Spindle'z Demandz", "slug": "spindlez-demandz", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ChsHFW1hy4iGjbpgu6QY", "createdTime": 1665874201970}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665872...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "spindlez-demandz", "marketz-about-spindle"]

0.5

1681583503438

1703480577422

0.68

W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3

0.1757575833534749

jeoZjyI3fpAsCK6Tx6eW

{"NO": 369.0481575555078, "YES": 857.2837016234641}

0

will-spindle-receive-a-donation-of

2011.3286105349055

Will Spindle receive a donation of M$100 000 by the end of April 15?

1681617540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.4981131237084933

True

play

NO

public

1665872293130

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701239425541

460

Jenny

1701239346271

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

0

19

0

46

13

[{"name": "Spindle'z Demandz", "slug": "spindlez-demandz", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ChsHFW1hy4iGjbpgu6QY", "createdTime": 1665874201969}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665872...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "spindlez-demandz", "marketz-about-spindle"]

0.5

1681611204949

1701239344494

0.08

0.5

gNk3uEdGugqsL8xZQmqX

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

how-much-will-a-good-gpu-cost-in-ma

0

How much will a good GPU cost in March 2023?

1665873713924

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665873330554

Anton Paquin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Around market close date, I'll go looking for prices in USD for a used 12gb 3080ti.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll take whatever price I find and put it into this formula:", "type": "tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665873713924

100

citrinitas

1665873451179

0

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

0

2

0.5

1665873467101

0.5

0.8258887071360946

xJ8tOG0L2iXU8XSnOyn6

{"NO": 263.4705609641785, "YES": 233.03293305303313}

0.8223277807194009

how-much-will-a-good-gpu-cost-in-ma-8dedcc62765a

102.55563063988365

How much will a good GPU cost in March 2023?

1678863600000

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-1

0

2.4403548475336665

True

play

MKT

public

1665873998494

Anton Paquin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Around market close, I'll go digging for a used 3080TI 12GB on ebay, and resolve the market to the nearest whole-dollar amound in USD for the lowest priced not-obviously-broken card I can find.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678879923988

240

citrinitas

1678912498634

0

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

7

0

1

4

0.8388485124438807

1678858459820

1678912516340

0.8223277807194009

0.5324652908233657

Fj2PaCVMFfsvYGHy1gGQ

{"NO": 210.91543639741514, "YES": 155.7413259933438}

1

will-i-enjoy-the-first-season-of-ki

74.04681440341898

Will I enjoy the first season of Killing Eve?

1667238268722

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

1.789625292997721

True

play

YES

public

1665876772758

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667238268722

180

LivInTheLookingGlass

1667238260595

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

5

0

5

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1665876773143}]

["olivia"]

0.5

1667238260413

1666125704837

0.5980497502933743

0.532493692727221

VBqocxdJyCqaVQBkXfyF

{"NO": 1172.364001417907, "YES": 838.9137946157645}

0.6141588288821725

will-humans-land-on-a-planet-dwarf

2843.3203603275238

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

2556161940000

wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63

cpmm-1

1.890542219923985e-15

9.685217580461401

False

basic

public

1665876999013

DAL59

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, Venus, Ceres, or Enceladus would count, but Phobos would not (too small).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For Venus, a blimp will could as landing.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "ha...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.11318907752824137}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.192451627218151, "platformFee": 0.3671190277608098, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

DAL59

1719413969414

0.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c

2

41

2

17

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1665876999348}]

["space"]

0.1007533124531546

0.5

1719413966184

1712392962216

0.35492048415402117

eE1NIuaN1fixmAP1m2WZ

{"NO": 8056.242603575193, "YES": 106.86584215689025}

1

will-elon-musk-be-the-worlds-riches

53169.59817205267

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person at the end of 2023?

1704027540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0.042370894276701716

1.0586569592291264

True

basic

YES

public

1665879084171

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704099797488

2140

Keepcalmandchill

1710451937740

2.6

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

7

271

0

1

99

[{"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.2036971164658346

0.5

1703976185590

1702653914720

False

0.98

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

0.5374051644793415

xNG2uuOI3HMS9XUlY6ae

{"NO": 200.54369420572374, "YES": 100.7312544270125}

0

will-there-be-at-least-one-pause-in

99.9596378978614

Will there be at least one pause in the finals match of League of Legends Worlds 2022?

1667624340000

LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2

cpmm-1

0

2.24333308223268

True

play

NO

public

1665883025217

wavedash

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is an in-game pause (the thing were there's a box that says \"The game has been paused.\")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this market closes the day before finals.", "type": "text"}]...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667712613115

140

wavedash

1667603439538

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c

4

0

1

5

[{"name": "League of Legends Worlds 2022", "slug": "league-of-legends-world-2022", "userId": "LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2", "groupId": "bjVaVIPEw06hHSKwkOlj", "createdTime": 1665883025629}]

["league-of-legends-world-2022"]

0.5

1667603439431

1665883158759

0.6981443042621166

0.2366337042494907

QGko7FNlkNC8DhmiGFho

{"NO": 1131.213076924107, "YES": 504.61039536521486}

0.41000000000000014

will-australia-become-a-republic-by

10202.196543502438

Will Australia become a republic by 2030?

1893409200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.614637801532442

False

basic

public

1665883581595

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 0.10022494645838476, "month": 0.07972217317895547}

0

{"creatorFee": 199.15915684386192, "platformFee": 0.3339855705777681, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1720106519889

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

1

32

4

https://firebasestorage.…89b-91c18d347ce7

6

[{"name": "Australia", "slug": "australia", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HSXQIPdSZj3T5sj9vo46", "createdTime": 1682377968709}, {"name": "Australian Politics", "slug": "australian-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HSHpR1ie9csCezP7HfFn", "createdTime": 1682377970810...

["australia", "australian-politics"]

0.5

1720106516809

1665883636207

0.41860465116279083

h5vKA8oQy6byyH6UkjKF

{"NO": 60.000000000000036, "YES": 270.0000000000002}

0.13793103448275867

if-russia-first-detonates-a-nuclear

150

If Russia first detonates a nuclear weapon non-offensively in 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon offensively within 1 month?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.88503150463752

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665884879978

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question aims to forecast the likelihood of escalation from a Russian nuclear test or demonstration detonation to an offensive detonation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672728344552

120

jack

1665884991860

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

2

0

1

3

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1665884880332}]

["nuclear-risk"]

0.5

1665884939401

1665884984532

0.14

0.6150154458241853

ehcRdLGcAn1Q4n2BliMq

{"NO": 246.40695012203344, "YES": 88.33333333333329}

0.8167244588900001

if-russia-detonates-a-nuclear-weapo-ff6d153f53db

215

If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in 2022, will the first be non-offensive?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

2.5204174543470055

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665885294462

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in 2022, resolves YES if their first nuclear detonation is non-offensive, NO if it is offensive. Resolves ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672728331769

140

jack

1666339992741

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

3

0

1

4

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1665885294992}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223196}]

["nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1666339991532

1665885340960

False

0.82

0.22245407359112454

4zQ0HhxvA4gXfycBKVFA

{"NO": 1143.381467026953, "YES": 569.7251829616564}

0.3647443540645794

will-australia-change-its-flag-by-2

1086.235502142779

Will Australia change its flag by 2030?

1893409200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.599120927372066

False

basic

public

1665887178548

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.1305629538117981, "month": 0.16215388869356753}

0

{"creatorFee": 21.333130261875297, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1719773177579

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

13

1

https://firebasestorage.…b81-305a8ba08ec5

7

0.5

1719773174508

1665892300981

hf6foIbDiH2NhLdslqCN

will-manifold-markets-reach-an-exit

1042.469774412457

Will Manifold Markets reach an exit and what will it be?

1704067140000

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.658192375434094

True

play

76e821062de7

public

1665888717004

David Chee

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A simplified definition of an exit is a point a startup reaches where founders/shareholders can sell their equity for cash. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704262134732

540

SirSalty

1704262134906

0

https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd

1

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "55bf920ff59f", "prob": 0.007755371430374298, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.08227649292978811, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.526692228742025, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hf6foIbDiH2NhLdslqCN", "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "createdTime": 16...

1

9

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665888717588}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "create...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1703738806878

1683722273715

{"76e821062de7": 100}

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

True

0.14718149077205903

QCa3eGok6HKryd7ME3VR

{"NO": 881.5552385079884, "YES": 1524.663038607869}

0.09073269553320613

will-the-us-decriminalise-prostitut

827.8696039130441

Will the US decriminalise prostitution by 2030?

1893409200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.96802387923151

False

basic

public

1665890777791

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 0.0007326955332060264}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.07359279738517269, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1719626612811

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

16

1

https://firebasestorage.…2ac-d650e610f986

13

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1665912726567}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1719626609458

1665890917855

0.7915983674131472

x5x8jddjCi9PdmbUjshb

{"NO": 4415.164455200172, "YES": 90.20078696520613}

1

will-this-market-wiggle-4060-at-lea

21729.937148130986

Will this market wiggle 40-60 at least 10 times in 30 days?

1666009155960

uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3

cpmm-1

0

3.608121446297943

True

play

YES

public

1665893601834

Boklam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"40-60 wiggle\" means the market goes down to 40% or below, and then up to 60% or above. This market resolves to YES if 10 or more 40-60 wiggles occur before market close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "conte...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666009155960

380

Boklam

1715876851461

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c

15

0

14

[{"name": "Wiggly", "slug": "wiggly", "userId": "uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3", "groupId": "KvpwZ7GwgUiwP04kBuop", "createdTime": 1665893602259}, {"name": "🎲 Unranked", "slug": "nonpredictive", "groupId": "f141b8ca-eac3-4400-962a-72973b3ceb62", "createdTime": 1715876851461}]

["wiggly", "nonpredictive"]

0.5

False

1666004104549

1666014674483

0.9946502919326601

0.29243444033772276

nwtkBvZPPwCfHpqZ3m1u

{"NO": 1075.3050670511614, "YES": 1362.621948879682}

0

will-supplementing-potassium-glucon

3461.533983585283

Will supplementing potassium (gluconate, pills) cause any distinct-from-noise weight loss over 4 weeks?

1667253936163

hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43

cpmm-1

0

0.4041691474216842

True

basic

NO

public

1665893916696

Alicorn

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I signed up for the study; I have no tolerance for bad tastes, so I'm going to swallow pills, not put weird salt on my food, but maybe it will work like that, who knows.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667253936163

1200

Alicorn

1667251961261

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiqbymWWaWRDlxgsh5hZR6ScCJpry2_m27AbEC2gg=s96-c

0

56

0

54

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "userId": "hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1665893917204}]

["slime-mold-time-mold"]

0.5

1667251960607

1666198914419

0.24593781367612685

0.06689911767342888

RttaY7G48c35boZEtG1n

{"NO": 911.0502221049816, "YES": 1496.917002535684}

0.04181072445403135

will-a-polynomialtime-algorithm-for

2388.4934102041266

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

1893409200000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

9.234575511739943e-16

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1665894377692

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1709192451595

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

19

0

https://firebasestorage.…ac3-4ae9e0062c88

11

[{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1665898207544}, {"name": "Computational Complexity Theory", "slug": "computational-complexity-theory", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rkDU85UpYnk6QG5tiE8U", ...

["mathematics", "computational-complexity-theory"]

0.11194607243280044

0.5

1709192451457

1679685450227

0.44520273291777585

ch8g2PAVIuVGSQU4F2iy

{"NO": 6995.558197684517, "YES": 288.1805153814107}

1

will-chinas-covid-zero-policy-end-i

61245.90010850841

Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?

1672537688922

uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3

cpmm-1

0

0.5688041398027801

True

basic

YES

public

1665894422363

Boklam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"NO\" if China ends \"Covid Zero\" in October, or if the policy is still in place at the end of 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 15, 11:27pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Ch...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672537688922

2060

Boklam

1710206843505

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c

3

216

0

1

149

[{"name": "🇨🇳 China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7"}, {"name": "COVID", "slug": "covid-d7a9361d772d", "groupId": "QVtAndZbd4jbfuKPSEDS"}, {"name": "Zero Covid", "slug": "zero-covid", "groupId": "iK2RFHGRKiw0isbLemIR"}]

["china", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "zero-covid"]

0.5

1672525815947

1672537678952

0.95

0.596178173822589

aV64ValvKTi9HLYiK6ad

{"NO": 1197.3426774891514, "YES": 861.6982233302044}

0.672281168726409

nuclear-power-production-increases

3909.658001017221

Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033

1988168460000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

9.644186844761267

False

basic

public

1665906443059

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the number of TwH generated by US nuclear power plants annually over the period 2023-2033 follows a statistically significant positive trend, as measured by a least-squares linear regression. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.036563751927753296}

0

{"creatorFee": 8.57682948773112, "platformFee": 2.920459848248278, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1718813940399

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

1

41

0

14

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1665906443685}, {"name": "Nuclear Power", "slug": "nuclear-power", "userId": "NnFJuUAa1eNnR8ydYGfdJ7DvFdy1", "groupId": "GAhreYQjzbNxlucwUxQ2", "createdTime": 1684775005707}, {"nam...

["science-default", "nuclear-power", "us-politics", "nuclear"]

0.5

1718813937349

1665906539102

False

0GVH4uXgBOnZI815dhJZ

where-will-jude-bellingham-play-in

3434.5313766125223

Where will Jude Bellingham play in the 2023/24 season?

1692137950776

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.638607146871266

True

play

4a9495dd466b

public

1665907231501

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "English soccer player Jude Bellingham is currently a player of Borussia Dortmund.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question will resolve to the team which contracts Bellingham as their player for the n...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1692137950776

720.0000000000002

itsTomekK

1692091986554

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f37cb36d1489", "prob": 0.002260101396275763, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.00821428593828763, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.6262624467531226, "textFts": "", "contractId": "0GVH4uXgBOnZI815dhJZ", "createdTime": 1665907232072, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...

8

[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1665907231924}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1668708793921}]

["soccer", "tomeks-specials"]

0.11735518914580224

1692091986415

1665907376081

{"4a9495dd466b": 100}

True

0.6901843048414509

sXIG1pdcTGNa3OIbnE9n

{"NO": 2303.4542706400766, "YES": 211.47836518517872}

1

will-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-mi

18820.019559538217

Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

1672487583542

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

1.3113720631133254

True

play

YES

public

1665907937411

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the 24th Israeli Knesset (parliament) fell apart in 2022, new legislative elections are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "scheduled for November 1, 2022. In spite of his ongoing legal battles, ex-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to ser...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672487583542

500

itsTomekK

1672487579140

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

22

0

15

[{"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1665907950884}, {"name": "Arab-Israeli Conflict", "slug": "arabisraeli-conflict", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "aheUmZtjkKBkeiXwIFhI", "createdTim...

["polymarket", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israeli-politics", "israel"]

0.5

1672487579029

1672430964710

0.96

0.3821833395928374

uf4NPY9zKIlmrqoZLTLo

{"NO": 137.1238891245889, "YES": 339.3010855295204}

0.20000000000000004

us-college-enrollment-rate-over-50

191.88909609874253

US College enrollment rate over 50% in 2026

1826985540000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665907948875

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to the National Center for Education Statistics, 40% of 18-24 year olds in the United States were enrolled in college. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://nces.ed.gov/programs/c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

HarrisonLucas

1709057846823

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

7

0

6

[{"name": "Higher Education", "slug": "higher-education", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "t2sumbJ9zbPDTYzX1H5X", "createdTime": 1665907949251}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181869883}]

["higher-education", "us-politics"]

0.5

1709057846695

1665925034733

False

0.3197782500373261

oQozg27X8pCDS0hVfjZY

{"NO": 3173.013795811318, "YES": 1.8712152635418988}

1

will-there-be-any-more-dlc-for-supe

3520.1820273713165

Will there be any more DLC for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate?

1705040363733

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

4.488450190842471

True

play

YES

public

1665912376383

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any new downloadable content is announced, including new spirits or gamemodes; NO on close or if another Smash game is released.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705040363733

320

NcyRocks

1705040364354

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

14

0

https://firebasestorage.…674-65dd0c539833

11

[{"name": "Nintendo", "slug": "nintendo", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "RP9YmNIFe88Grg68Ivp2", "createdTime": 1665918329394}, {"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665918330572}]

["nintendo", "gaming"]

0.5

1705040350502

1702065975933

1

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

0.49205147615442935

f0cBk08PsrIDXCpeSllT

{"NO": 74.94186278656198, "YES": 194.84360731279313}

0.27144939684214936

will-there-be-an-offyear-snap-elect

185

Will there be an off-year snap election in New Zealand by 2040?

2208942000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665915975792

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a snap election happens in a year not congruent to 1 modulo 3, i.e. breaking the usual pattern of 2017, 2020, 2023...", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0306606825374511, "platformFee": 0.2651515151515152, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

NcyRocks

1716410978386

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

4

0

https://firebasestorage.…f82-b8dfdc5f273d

3

[{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1665918345120}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533857}]

["nz-politics", "new-zealand"]

0.5

1716410974679

1665916139705

0.6287826717076238

H9GAgYzBazc9R5B3zuPo

{"NO": 386.44279016508546, "YES": 173.78410909915172}

0.7902060808276384

will-new-zealand-be-using-mmp-in-20

181.2226016558026

Will New Zealand be using MMP in 2040?

2208942000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665917478742

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc"}

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7862335423504407, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

240

NcyRocks

1717046623319

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

9

0

https://firebasestorage.…935-539a8d66e20a

4

[{"name": "NZ Politics", "slug": "nz-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "EyeJAs2GE9EbxYqaotGL", "createdTime": 1665965614648}, {"name": "New Zealand", "slug": "new-zealand", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "oq3FCoTOqPkZUdzxEUuM", "createdTime": 1674951533857}]

["nz-politics", "new-zealand"]

0.5

1717046619864

1681965381451

0.4207047102059114

jwHUeYXqxZvvQferw5FE

{"NO": 996.273473556328, "YES": 1000.3843949610832}

0.41970147883642434

will-you-be-able-to-buy-tshirts-wit

310.56506318494723

Will you be able to buy T-shirts with the unified laws of the universe printed on them in 2056?

2745486000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

9.65583159949236

False

basic

public

1665919576030

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quoth Tegmark: \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "In 2056, I think you'll be able to buy a T-shirt on which are printed equations describing the unified physical laws of our universe.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "htt...

BINARY

{"day": 3.885780586188048e-16, "week": 3.885780586188048e-16, "month": 3.885780586188048e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

NcyRocks

1710873689800

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

11

0

https://firebasestorage.…e79-e60fa667e4d0

9

[{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1665965361559}, {"name": "Particle Physics", "slug": "particle-physics", "userId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "groupId": "QznxLLOqmyw75xdyOOOa", "createdTime": 16813262217...

["physics", "particle-physics"]

0.5

1710873686104

1671785062986

0.578326156236026

LR1UHTQbYgjbYjx4s6jn

{"NO": 247.34077018085134, "YES": 167.37011299182902}

0.6696196453459641

if-scotland-leaves-the-uk-will-they-0e3e0726b304

72.65922981914902

If Scotland leaves the UK, will they join NATO within 2 years?

4102398000000

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665923176394

N.C. Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will stay open until it resolves YES or NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

NcyRocks

1683670535464

0

https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2

5

0

https://firebasestorage.…fa6-644d9bed61a0

7

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665959795716}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1665959799133}, {"name": "Sco...

["uk-politics", "world-default", "scotland", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1683670535340

1666127936934

0.14205033554839286

BGJYwfDLVjkV07A8TaEF

{"NO": 842.0050978598907, "YES": 2059.05258155449}

0.06341266695180826

will-the-lds-church-permit-gay-marr

4788.000381504541

Will the LDS Church permit gay marriage by 2030?

1925002740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

10.044694147642389

False

basic

public

1665924167790

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question, resolves Yes if a gay couple can be married in an LDS temple at close.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.7637723906010295, "platformFee": 0.7637723906010295, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

CarsonGale

1715462080980

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

1

40

0

17

[{"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1665925668395}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1665924168202}, {"name": "Carson's ...

["religion", "mormonism", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1715462077592

1685908347576

0.7934781074753587

kriFzr2ofiGk69gIxmDX

{"NO": 2187.3660196461065, "YES": 776.3611105131079}

0.9154331606967839

will-the-lds-church-continue-to-pro

2622.7617704900586

Will the LDS church continue to prohibit coffee by 2030

1925002740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

9.833998101230883

False

basic

public

1665924308491

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.015433160696783244}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9177225744854098, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

CarsonGale

1718283887668

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

0

34

0

23

[{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1665924309089}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1665925642929}, {"name": "Carson's ...

["religion", "mormonism", "carsons-important-markets", "coffee"]

0.5

1718283883767

1678856302956

0.15471639023044045

JbNojrEwsl9T2rBdixir

{"NO": 847.9678709651146, "YES": 1897.0784878453442}

0.0756267348662274

will-the-lds-church-permit-women-to

2248.786110610958

Will the LDS church permit women to hold the priesthood by 2030

1925002740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

9.966991832854927

False

basic

public

1665924580450

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.052973791993694175}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.17733694917205, "platformFee": 0.06140364219562504, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

CarsonGale

1718264499284

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

0

23

0

17

[{"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1665925601020}, {"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1665924580816}, {"name": "Carson's ...

["religion", "mormonism", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1718264496006

1665924724893

0.5781652585998429

mbONVOKJQ8TsWmO875ss

{"NO": 751.918683871965, "YES": 1220.9080715135508}

0.45773214903015697

will-brigham-young-university-allow

814.0367207549883

Will Brigham Young University allow students to wear beards by 2030

1925002740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

9.706502007885689

False

basic

public

1665924746618

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.12230128079116859}

0

{"creatorFee": 11.951527213952698, "platformFee": 0.5838756902496381, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

CarsonGale

1718980812673

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

22

0

12

[{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1665924746952}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1665925587380}]

["religion", "mormonism"]

0.5

1718980809585

1715220242902

0.623649596240489

lcMLpQVaeZURuq6n2QDK

{"NO": 497.9347248377174, "YES": 1398.4229437341733}

0.3710853685821537

will-membership-in-the-lds-church-d

4427.067671467463

Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030

1925002740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

9.537887437770346

False

basic

public

1665925079564

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Membership has grown annually for 165 years", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints_membership_hi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.01823661855930847}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3132280972409658, "platformFee": 0.24435057114672284, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

CarsonGale

1719095666219

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

1

44

0

27

[{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1665925079889}, {"name": "Mormonism", "slug": "mormonism", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "0Oz0P5pJetDHtqo9Fl4q", "createdTime": 1665925561417}, {"name": "Carson's ...

["religion", "mormonism", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1719095663155

1712676663246

0.010101010101010102

2Uf589L8KbrvvJVGSeVh

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.010101010101010102

how-much-usd-will-mriya-raise-throu

0

How much USD will Mriya raise through Manifold by the end of Dec 29?

1665929271033

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

10.578492414368885

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665929214036

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the number shown on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "charity page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/charity/mriya", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 bre...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665929271033

100

Jenny

1665929303683

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

0

2

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665929214454}, {"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": ...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-for-charity"]

0.010101010101010102

1665929299368

0.7228264159425405

HiJ2Gliqi1KAvl0f4qIA

{"NO": 551.9538220187458, "YES": 327.1417230681526}

0.8169097434687006

how-much-usd-will-mriya-raise-throu-e02cb7bec2ee

289.2636038601532

How much USD will Mriya raise through Manifold by the end of Dec 29?

1671577200000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.19265234691872

True

play

MKT

public

1665929322383

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the number shown on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "charity page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/charity/mriya", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672376500295

380

Jenny

1671669059037

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

6

0

2

5

[{"name": "Manifold for Charity", "slug": "manifold-for-charity", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HFlasvJJLTujevzme7rL", "createdTime": 1665931773865}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1665931755466}]

["ukraine", "manifold-for-charity"]

0.7394800098386101

1671575341210

1671669035356

0.8169097434687006

0.3265588909671146

75Ecpq1T8fVrPraeXTsL

{"NO": 167.5466946584776, "YES": 4003.7980270195135}

0

will-it-be-possible-to-short-an-ans-9b304a614ba4

6271.905480000484

Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by mid-February?

1676523540000

2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2

cpmm-1

1.4698559230179953

True

play

NO

public

1665929648195

Forrest

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aside from the resolve date, same rules as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-it-be-possible-to-short-an-ans", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-it-b...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676607211221

580

Forrest

1676521948299

0

https://firebasestorage.…dba-d226fde95f2e

26

0

1

24

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1665929648675}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 16...

["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1676521948100

1666030422965

0.02

0.6182996115118687

IWAS6Nb3rogUSWDAmMUt

{"NO": 1282.3276711111914, "YES": 175.17912817220298}

1

before-2025-will-the-us-fda-authori

1887.6786314198373

Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?

1679076964607

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-1

0

1.3046105555261756

True

play

YES

public

1665930525300

Pepe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Traditionally, the US FDA and other major medical/regulatory bodies in the US have taken a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "conservative approach", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.propublica.org/article/this-s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1679076964607

380

Pepe

1679056195046

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

1

12

0

7

[{"name": "Biosecurity", "slug": "biosecurity", "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "groupId": "DOMpq3Oo28HvvygsRCH2", "createdTime": 1665930525674}]

["biosecurity"]

0.5

1679056191823

1678974307352

0.92

0.7698441699543837

yb7km8yw8KW9bBiulW8A

{"NO": 778.2135729486965, "YES": 222.1482588031826}

0

in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will

1804.6119403968337

In "be swallowed up by the sun", will there be at least 10 deaths?

1674799140000

NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1

cpmm-1

0

1.7718790934635524

True

play

NO

public

1665931302992

Benjamin Cosman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the lowercase-d market; see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will-6f0c6ffad82", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Benjam...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675300643547

340

BenjaminCosman

1675300618802

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpw00X8vUChExgzazukv9rP3dnjhsvxGTntPujSNQ=s96-c

1

14

0

2

14

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1665931303362}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1672247871042

1675300614053

0.92

0.38486936394759624

phdBhYHEnDqvrpq4fV2A

{"NO": 248.08283547523706, "YES": 600.968469836694}

0.20526441815327115

in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will-6f0c6ffad829

747.5803682726912

In "be swallowed up by the sun", will there be any True Deaths?

1674799140000

NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1

cpmm-1

0

1.1302051172340573

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665931328317

Benjamin Cosman

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the capital-D market; see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-be...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675300728066

360

BenjaminCosman

1675291402748

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpw00X8vUChExgzazukv9rP3dnjhsvxGTntPujSNQ=s96-c

0

16

0

2

19

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1665931328661}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1673939010117

1675291399732

0.21

0.07783126714031338

2HTKMufFppYUoAyLl5Ey

{"NO": 859.9843321042854, "YES": 2624.8362850128447}

0.02690827187127336

will-hillary-clinton-ever-be-electe

2540.21383693765

Will Hillary Clinton ever be elected President?

4102466340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0.03532659617628109

10.583924806838276

False

basic

public

1665931764864

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": -0.0005504466696727404}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.09495540838476133, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1717766102198

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

31

0

21

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1666039343007}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 16660...

["future-us-presidents", "politics-default", "gigacasting", "us-politics"]

0.15935383982154133

0.5

1717766099050

1665931914170

False

0.17361037169400936

z9Knnw4DCixDkn3N69xG

{"NO": 988.0023883049561, "YES": 892.8882537913507}

0.18861585997358898

will-kamala-harris-ever-be-elected

1543.9002689696624

Will Kamala Harris ever be elected President?

4102466340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.776220567279061

False

basic

public

1665931864230

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.05199116817097388, "month": 0.051991168170973906}

0

{"creatorFee": 4.663873099994299, "platformFee": 0.6549715233125422, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1719848973547

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

21

2

10

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665931864903}, {"name": "Gigacasting", "slug": "gigacasting", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "ypoGbkBreEXiPzcUAruE", "createdTime": 1671138708751}, {"name"...

["politics-default", "gigacasting", "us-politics"]

0.5

1719848970265

1665932315942

False

0.08051270740126043

e0aPITYeA6Fsze4048i1

{"NO": 888.5339382647602, "YES": 1828.1167504209197}

0.04082143405082216

will-michelle-obama-ever-be-elected

3588.9424011294286

Will Michelle Obama ever be elected President?

4102466340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

10.474315056304196

False

basic

public

1665931981672

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.14808588513414567, "platformFee": 0.14808588513414567, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1715955518413

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

27

0

11

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665931982248}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867075}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1715955515118

1665932322093

False

0.1655141924312856

NWRUPruzUJw9bzVGI4yy

{"NO": 916.0089017470849, "YES": 1289.445471220604}

0.1234994916133649

will-a-child-or-grandchild-of-donal

532.9120009418145

Will a child or grandchild of Donald J. Trump ever be President?

4102466340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.734315084397782

False

basic

public

1665932090881

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -9.71445146547012e-17, "week": -9.71445146547012e-17, "month": -9.71445146547012e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4946676251875166, "platformFee": 0.4946676251875166, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1715430917588

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

19

0

13

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665932091421}, {"name": "Future US Presidents", "slug": "future-us-presidents", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "AaVOlWucYC9VeWQN6zYG", "createdTime": 16660...

["politics-default", "future-us-presidents", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1715430914278

1666192018549

False

0.23622337812891375

fmvQoHmbHfReekrXBdQL

{"NO": 961.3052447552286, "YES": 1051.884444522285}

0.2203644080394236

will-gavin-newsom-ever-be-elected-p

1102.1903183616846

Will Gavin Newsom ever be elected President?

4102466340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.298895751534715

False

basic

public

1665932487608

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.3751953132275564, "platformFee": 0.3751953132275564, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1715229741781

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

18

0

11

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665932488234}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867142}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

0.5

1715229738524

1682239217735

False

0.5178343131858995

RQRoeChXrJY6yfOgyaLQ

{"NO": 698.3099782981558, "YES": 4546.025210181234}

0.14161046427949578

will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-732b02483e1c

33960.03644726855

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated while Biden is President?

1864619940000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

7.238983203314841

False

basic

public

1665933276101

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.0027829261637863922, "week": -0.0390453209719166, "month": -0.1347074791743191}

0

{"creatorFee": 163.2780487597761, "platformFee": 113.41406413391802, "liquidityFee": 0}

50

1925

Gigacasting

1720200778142

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

152

1

45

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1665933276387}]

["nuclear-risk"]

0.5

1720200775030

1714217275595

0.8188092003503531

1PPGboli6WjUWLdYRcn0

{"NO": 11351.242251580932, "YES": 973.1142402223011}

1

if-slime-mold-time-mold-conclude-a

20480.938432025403

If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?

1688252340000

FR5SxcMAUtWmgpxLDC58Rjcs6xX2

cpmm-1

0

0.5505777530752751

True

basic

YES

public

1665935314082

Alex L

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iAABhWpcGeP5e6SB/it-s-probably-not-lithium", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iAABhWpcGeP5e6SB/it-s-probably-not-lithium", "class": "no-underline !text-i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1689104803868

1720

AlexL

1689105553159

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjfeQdgmE5bk_fJMNxJ_tszaENgx-o0_qGK3skCPw=s96-c

6

83

0

2

67

[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "FR5SxcMAUtWmgpxLDC58Rjcs6xX2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1665935314652}, {"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "userId": "FR5SxcMAUtWmgpxLDC58Rjcs6xX2", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": ...

["science-default", "slime-mold-time-mold"]

0.13882312869734134

0.5

1686607140147

1689105550385

0.98

0.17515298372746096

yqENpu0oxY9kXpDkiH5o

{"NO": 305.0891581468876, "YES": 1921.3799290926825}

0

will-the-uk-economic-collapse-inspi

2393.5690451856326

Will the U.K. economic collapse inspire the citizens to elect a far-right government before 2024?

1704095940000

PcJIGaD3wbdOeYNAcWMMiCjKlMG3

cpmm-1

0

1.6801134410795406

True

play

NO

public

1665936356061

Scott

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Developed countries tend to elect far-right leadership during a crisis, whereas developing countries tend to elect far-left leadership during a crisis. E.g. Germany, Japan, and Italy after World War Two, versus Russia during World War One, Angola, ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704381360385

460

FulltimeDragon

1704381360626

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu06vVVkJsFFIrK7kvXpA3qvDNumsEiUOREUxiiv=s96-c

18

0

56

17

[{"name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "userId": "PcJIGaD3wbdOeYNAcWMMiCjKlMG3", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1665936384239}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "PcJIGaD3wbdOeYNAcWMMiCjKlMG3", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1665936378878}, {"name"...

["politics-default", "uk-politics", "global-macro", "geopolitics", "economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1702035935806

1704381354448

0.03

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.11611257325246664

1IU7dImJuyNJQj5mqj6Q

{"NO": 318.9523825592459, "YES": 2042.6361612664075}

0

what-of-2023-will-liz-truss-survive

2635.6254831442325

What % of 2023 will Liz Truss survive?

1666683753075

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.4027903372628607

True

play

NO

public

1665943284654

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "0% - removed before Jan 1, 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "100% - entirety of 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "X% - days into 2023 / 365", "type": "te...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666683753075

480

Gigacasting

1666470594500

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

20

0

16

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665943285328}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1666470593095

1665943396355

0.02010012828193085

0.3702627061986962

ff9bQeKYeELvN0xgVeiv

{"NO": 622.0567011458458, "YES": 2075.1026840222735}

0.14984406005176323

will-trumps-running-mate-be-female

5959.760239524748

Will Trump’s running mate be female?

1725166740000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.81363005404205

False

basic

public

1665943540834

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As Republican nominee or otherwise ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -0.025887383567838512, "week": -0.025887383567838512, "month": -0.04938876983541207}

0

{"creatorFee": 39.20190508662503, "platformFee": 8.405392742061466, "liquidityFee": 0}

237

1000

Gigacasting

1720186056826

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

39

1

8

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665943541370}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892828}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "grou...

["politics-default", "donald-trump", "magaland"]

0.5

1720186053757

1665952837702

False

0.5665153311307976

dm9tjQbMqvfmp2Yaaayr

{"NO": 235.74600789098372, "YES": 143.44605563401439}

0.6823177210442573

will-trumps-running-mate-be-an-outs

160.2862401223956

Will Trump’s running mate be a (…) outsider?

1725080340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665943726070

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meaning not a former cabinet member or current/former Presidential candidate", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.03231772104425712}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.435330417488325, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

Gigacasting

1719626629142

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

6

1

7

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665943726744}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181892763}]

["politics-default", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1719626625962

1666309645494

False

0.2052231515870499

QXwOs41qMv6AfsqKERox

{"NO": 481.9961049733212, "YES": 2675.410048082665}

0

will-israel-provide-the-iron-dome-m

2616.884393054408

Will Israel provide the Iron Dome missile defence system to Ukraine before 2024?

1704027540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

9.234575511739943e-16

0.9648186907967835

True

play

NO

public

1665947575796

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704098252386

740

Keepcalmandchill

1704098252834

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

0

36

0

1

17

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1665947576117}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670787751174}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia wa...

["ukraine", "israel", "ukrainerussia-war", "-israeli-nuclear", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.10734794900331462

0.5

1704011323129

1665951920303

False

0.04

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

0.5450709446504766

Trk1KNHnDlHaPYlq0Xti

{"NO": 443.8893224724254, "YES": 131.21424426899256}

1

will-the-nasdaq100-end-the-day-abov

352.54841552831226

Will the Nasdaq-100 end the day above 10,700 on October 17th, 2022?

1666033200000

PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2

cpmm-1

0

1.6180197728391101

True

play

YES

public

1665948653224

horse

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666050950701

250

horse

1666030633897

0

https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f

6

0

1

8

[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1665948653572}]

["finance"]

0.5

1666030632494

1665948752606

0.8021074378507899

0.36564084492818166

n2pjMMF0CRNt9EdBmZuI

{"NO": 1195.4597965760643, "YES": 673.2672727770423}

0.5057947503118477

will-donald-j-trump-ever-be-elected

2079.5359132212784

Will Donald J. Trump ever be elected President? (again)

4102466340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.390726045494894

False

basic

public

1665951509485

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.038724956747715644, "month": 0.03872495674771603}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.105277640783232, "platformFee": 0.6477462276417078, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1719841443687

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

33

2

18

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665951510240}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867390}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", ...

["politics-default", "us-politics", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1719841440620

1710175235600

False

JZGurH1WbBkp3V1PrRvy

who-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nom

0

Who will be the 2024 Democratic nominee? [LIST]

1665954176813

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665954166299

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden/Harris", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Newsom/Buttgieg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hillary/Bernie/Warren", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ot...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665954176813

220

Gigacasting

1665954247246

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1c99329ade38", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "JZGurH1WbBkp3V1PrRvy", "createdTime": 1665954167049, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

2

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665954166898}]

["politics-default"]

1665954166299

1665954239975

True

cV3TFTICdSyMrd6aGYoM

who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee

1102.5321030745922

Who will be the Democratic nominee? [LIST]

1729745940000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665954243733

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden/Harris", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Newsom/Buttgieg", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hillary/Bernie/Warren", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ot...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.33561792270845314, "platformFee": 0.10002586827413731, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

400

Gigacasting

1720142006827

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

9

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "99672ab8b006", "prob": 0.07720430944381332, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.4516864773651885, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.3988480409690585, "textFts": "", "contractId": "cV3TFTICdSyMrd6aGYoM", "createdTime": 1665954244562, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

6

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665954244405}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181867011}]

["politics-default", "us-politics"]

1720142003735

1720141962797

False

True

0.6566258789304011

8mr7fKPJBIk1m2L1JMgF

{"NO": 9641.022243596024, "YES": 26.826316384530504}

1

will-the-ninth-episode-of-house-of

12240.409945831767

Will the ninth episode of House of the Dragon have a higher IMDB score than the series average?

1666047540000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0

3.284643027899664

True

play

YES

public

1665955599049

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Series average: 8.6 (will use 8.6 even if it changes before tomorrow)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Episode 9: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11198352/?ref_=vp_close", "type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666047569947

220

GeorgeVii

1666047404754

0

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

0

7

0

7

[{"name": "House of the Dragon", "slug": "house-of-the-dragon", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "tgXkqBzB3NEhtpQxJdNa", "createdTime": 1665956360292}]

["house-of-the-dragon"]

0.5

1666047403376

1665955675367

0.9723993320115778

qmc5J0t1cIaUn4x2G5C6

what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth-b2d1370106b2

934.8516348054198

What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over Q4 2022?

1672552740000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.663084515929473

True

play

f8770001a445

public

1665957324654

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months October - December 2022? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Potential answers can be ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672628063157

819.9999999999998

SG

1672552163759

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

14

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "a51f2cbceded", "prob": 0.009665657215157965, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.06757726935127084, "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.923904825140369, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qmc5J0t1cIaUn4x2G5C6", "createdTime": 1665957325336, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

15

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665957325150}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

1672552163559

1665965192410

{"f8770001a445": 100}

True

0.7875288229370009

AY7BD3sKiqU1kGrcCxIk

{"NO": 1466.5261423077309, "YES": 928.7812585694054}

0.8540682536541212

will-the-us-be-able-to-prop-up-its

3042.240020528482

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

1823756340000

5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2

cpmm-1

0

9.617371380594932

False

basic

public

1665957339475

Ruth Grace Wong

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if China -- not including Taiwan -- isn't obviously way better at making the most modern chips by five years from this day.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.050743626483777476, "platformFee": 0.050743626483777476, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1050

RuthGraceWong

1715227876837

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWW_w_ZZaae3L60Yzzqgs08R8X3sWkXNB8VY6S7I4=s96-c

1

37

0

29

[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1665957339930}, {"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1666022576128}, {"name": "Globa...

["china", "semiconductors", "global-macro"]

0.5

1715227873559

1695756429984

0.5567995608465709

UpcA38YkMg0A6x3tn7A9

{"NO": 480.05737781415564, "YES": 178.53960510222257}

0.7715842391835472

what-percent-of-twitter-accounts-wi

1207.4483648458438

What percent of Twitter accounts will be unbanned?

1688187540000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0.01975727401768357

1.343333393959111

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665960997951

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Within three months of close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A if no deal occurs. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1699140819055

300

Gigacasting

1699140844774

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

13

0

26

9

[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1670619427840}]

["twitter"]

0.121581550083483

0.5

1688185937389

1699140843114

0.77

0.881470013580194

TZOJBOKsm7tqxKPiI0p2

{"NO": 17532.82215952499, "YES": 333.68430009118674}

1

will-this-market-be-traded-by-25-in-d808d52ea766

17852.796146352786

Will this market be traded by >25 individual traders before Mar 2023?

1677191619190

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

1.5366814922641558

True

play

YES

public

1665964259725

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "#fun #silly #self_referential", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677191619190

580

TimP

1677191392575

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

26

0

20

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1665964260366}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1677191392459

1677191362626

1

0.21522142229620597

SvIbbIGnpOsqjjXMHdaU

{"NO": 409.08203714415345, "YES": 5660.9231387669315}

0

will-there-be-a-new-nuclear-reactor

7703.8872825171975

Will there be a new nuclear reactor operating in Germany, in 2023?

1704063540000

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

cpmm-1

0

0.9990347871632221

True

play

NO

public

1665964834128

Tim P

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is a reactor, that didn't deliver electricity in 2022, delivering electricity at any point during that year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "#politics #world #technology ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705094631155

780

TimP

1705094631425

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

1

35

0

3

https://firebasestorage.…e29-cc98a706495e

25

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665964834639}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1665965499894}, {"name": "Germa...

["economics-default", "energy", "germany", "nuclear", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"]

0.5

1698612556076

1705094624623

False

0.02

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.689720076901127

WkdmUbnqTxIbAnhFDgar

{"NO": 2160.843954195186, "YES": 533.7035464886469}

0.9

will-i-drop-out-of-college

4179.795963979804

Will I drop out of college?

1725163140000

z0cH5XmIM9XgWFOBAILQWt0fTHr1

cpmm-1

0

9.993151581411642

False

basic

public

1665967763687

Rachel

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolved to YES if on August 31, 2024 I haven't been enrolled in college for the previous two years (at which point Tufts won't let me back) or if before then I officially drop out (rather than stalling by \"taking semesters off\" whi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.021692685984156967, "month": -0.0027630145069106327}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.75985661561898, "platformFee": 0.046428560047715554, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

rachel

1719830293568

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr7YCsixsa7V2jXk_XiVJPYixsOTsXOURbZDyqIAQ=s96-c

40

1

https://firebasestorage.…9a8-43ad9b1e209b

22

[{"name": "Personal", "slug": "personal", "groupId": "wxAGTtNee5f2PTzjqSI2", "createdTime": 1698067825327}]

["personal"]

0.5

1719830290485

1713034112572

0.3609479388744555

OcYv6WsLHAiJhcudoDqU

{"NO": 51.63266630957351, "YES": 1841.9250908939175}

0

will-i-get-mythic-on-mtg-arena-this

1824.8390168663254

Will I get Mythic on MTG Arena this season?

1667263457665

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

3.0673882542423736

True

play

NO

public

1665971035617

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I keep getting pulled back into the game! My new Saga Storm deck is just too fun. (Inspired by this Much Abrew video: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9YjMVhhfLw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667263457665

200

Conflux

1667200892110

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

6

0

7

[{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1665971036154}]

["magic-the-gathering"]

0.5

1667200890777

1667188726805

0.015586142181153794

0.45457169549627674

jRR1686JZr2gerY5rhwi

{"NO": 365.92565072354876, "YES": 13497.583975749061}

0

will-more-than-20-organizations-pub

58396.202273868694

Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0.47069092319975875

0.5450135603541852

True

basic

NO

public

1665977757914

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this market a large language model is a language model trained using an amount of compute that is within an order of magnitude of the compute used to train the largest language...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704818011124

2035

vluzko

1704850417772

3.1

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

2

111

0

2

8

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1666164291356}, {"name": "LLMs", "slug": "llms", "groupId": "7AISXitieE7l07dhslU8", "createdTime": 1698709509212}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "g...

["ai", "llms", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.22309854365173146

0.5

1703946931396

1704850416249

0.02

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

kiAtS9KYBz1pKTuz2CaN

where-will-joao-felix-play-in-the-2

1473.9341560553125

Where will João Félix play in the 2023/24 season?

1693605540000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.651473197755366

True

play

63245f072334

public

1665986762852

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Portuguese soccer player João Félix is currently a player of Atletico de Madrid.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question will resolve to the team which contracts Félix as their player for the next (2...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1693639487170

680

itsTomekK

1693603356044

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "dd771fde608b", "prob": 0.005486433254053858, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.03260016372230485, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.909359250113085, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kiAtS9KYBz1pKTuz2CaN", "createdTime": 1665986763536, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

5

[{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1665986763299}, {"name": "Football Rumors", "slug": "football-rumors", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "eHjingXNejUbQTM9MljG", "createdTime": 1686530800524}]

["soccer", "football-rumors"]

0.09094457449210351

1693603355892

1693576606466

{"63245f072334": 100}

True

0.43214785037276215

rzcjS3OK5WQsQma16pFK

{"NO": 16.458615587507666, "YES": 2209.9999999999995}

0

how-many-days-after-november-1st-wi

2070

How many days after November 1st will Manifold (or a third party) release an Android app?

1667374694292

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

4.605752217931919

True

play

MKT

public

1665993927090

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the fractional number of days past midnight PT of November 1 such an app appears. If it does not in the resolution window, resolves to the closest value (MIN or MAX).", "type": "text"}]}]}

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667374694292

140

LivInTheLookingGlass

1667374740864

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

3

0

5

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1665994182627}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1665994178831}, {"n...

["olivia", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1667374681267

1667374733861

0

PBWd5r178SLbp9sN3X7R

conditional-on-trump-formally-regis

1008.9703652090025

Conditional on Trump formally registering one for the 2024 election, his running mate will be

1730825999000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665993928480

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All entries must be either the name of a person. In the case of a conflict, the first submitted answer will be accepted.", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.639546873621383, "platformFee": 0.639546873621383, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1280

LivInTheLookingGlass

1715963805935

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

19

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "15dcc840f759", "prob": 0.04626728881580025, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3932232632200474, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 8.105724336358382, "textFts": "", "contractId": "PBWd5r178SLbp9sN3X7R", "createdTime": 1665993928680, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

12

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Repub...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "olivia", "ancient-markets"]

1715963802746

1672422160300

True

0.4089791922194732

VjUwJfWnDPJ3GiTgBSXy

{"NO": 65.86874849704952, "YES": 1682.7079069666647}

0

conditional-on-manifold-getting-an

1944.8904922645188

Conditional on Manifold getting an Android app, it is on FDroid within one month

1671258745706

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.355818079688296

True

play

NO

public

1666002699665

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if no app", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES the moment I can install from FDroid", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO at close otherwise", "type": "tex...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1671258745706

260

LivInTheLookingGlass

1671258744060

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

11

0

11

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1666002715833}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1666002700178}, {"n...

["olivia", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1671258740983

1670016561913

0.09

0.22850399821498685

sVyjPZcNoL27nX22NnNB

{"NO": 939.7883892493476, "YES": 1130.9832270857073}

0.19750437055907977

will-elon-musk-create-a-parent-comp

492.53395927305047

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

1830308340000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

9.655577079478405

False

basic

public

1666003097322

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"yes\" if three or more business lines are consolidated.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

CarsonGale

1710451954161

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

16

0

13

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Carson's Important Markets", "slug": "carsons-important-markets", "groupId": "DytWRqmLs1y5KMo3oBhi"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1680349112372

1689494798095

False

0.5533321048558015

GrWNFij6mzOhpkRRd3TO

{"NO": 322.4340799147018, "YES": 266.28751854342596}

0.6

after-participating-in-the-slime-mo

580.5151621772857

After participating in the Slime Mold Time Mold potassium experiment, will I be more comfortable in my XS skirt than my S skirt?

1667404108454

Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3

cpmm-1

0

1.1778560871317674

True

play

CANCEL

public

1666008106013

Nicola Wilson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I own my favorite skirt in size Small and size X-Small. The S one is a little big and falls down if I put things in the pockets, but the XS one is uncomfortably tight. I am participating in the SMTM potassium supplementation experiment and plan to ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667404108454

300

njmkw

1667422777075

0

https://firebasestorage.…e12-2a05b9a967a2

0

12

0

13

[{"name": "Slime Mold Time Mold (SMTM)", "slug": "slime-mold-time-mold", "userId": "Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3", "groupId": "7Lcv3ohmGO8LGXWOymi1", "createdTime": 1666008106458}]

["slime-mold-time-mold"]

0.5

1667394309222

1667422775060

0.6

NQJP0Oo68MQIHv8pfIlj

if-north-korea-tests-a-nuclear-weap

285.44424333596606

If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, how many will they test?

1793458740000

lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1666008234146

Bjorn

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea's five-year weapons development plan (unveiled Jan 2021) requires multiple types of nuclear weapons to be tested. It has been suggested that North Korea may be planning on a succession of tests of...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0.607026025004761, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

679.9999999999999

brp

1719451262329

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c

0

7

1

ANYONE

[{"id": "c8a861415b8c", "prob": 0.43069748870579105, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 26.258043040505733, "userId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 34.70828188376744, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NQJP0Oo68MQIHv8pfIlj", "createdTime": 1666008234426, "probChanges": {"day": -0.5883327580...

1

5

[{"name": "North Korea", "slug": "north-korea", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "5aafMiQ5NeYij6TE1G1i", "createdTime": 1667764661104}]

["north-korea"]

0.09366827457569585

1719451259168

1670502846102

True

0.16652871361613572

KH9Rht3mly5XDWdYWZPd

{"NO": 195.7241601506408, "YES": 3509.317074597145}

0

will-it-be-possible-to-short-a-posi

6146.746117418037

Will it be possible to short a position on a Yes/No market by Feb. 15?

1676476800000

uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3

cpmm-1

0

2.51208720722468

True

play

NO

public

1666010840148

Boklam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will I be able to take a short position in a Yes/No market Feb. 15, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shorting YES is different from buying NO because buying NO ties up a lot of capital. ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1677341527417

360

Boklam

1676645756850

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c

15

0

3

14

0.5

1676475981894

1676645755563

0.01