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# Sex-Positivity is Countercultural
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/05/14/sex-positivity/).
* * *
A month ago I wrote an [off-the-cuff Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/yashkaf/status/1380568379115892736) about how most modern cultures that say they are sex positive really aren’t. It g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXXqCXu7gveSqR6Zv/sex-positivity-is-countercultural |
# Easily Top 20%
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/05/30/easily-top-20/).
* * *
I’ve written a lot about [approaching dating](https://putanumonit.com/2017/10/11/winning-is-for-losers/) as a [cooperative game](https://putanumonit.com/2016/02/20/018-dating_3/): you and your potential partner... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5b3umjEyEPaTHyiHh/easily-top-20 |
# [Book review] Gödel, Escher, Bach: an in-depth explainer
*\[Thanks to Jacob Falkovich, Eric Neyman, and my LessWrong reviewer, among others, for their feedback on earlier drafts.\]*
Initially, *Gödel, Escher, Bach* comes across as a perplexingly well-regarded conspiracy theory text. But reading on, you come to see ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wwNnzaPnB5a48K86N/book-review-goedel-escher-bach-an-in-depth-explainer |
# The role of tribes in achieving lasting impact and how to create them
*Co-authored by Konrad Seifert and Nora Ammann*
*Cross-posted on the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z9zPJSszRifChQLdC/the-role-of-tribes-in-achieving-lasting-impact-and-how-to)
TL;DR
=====
To bring about grand futures,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XXc4Y5KXBwvaqhKmr/the-role-of-tribes-in-achieving-lasting-impact-and-how-to |
# Issues with Giving Multiplier
*See the end of this post for a response from Giving Multiplier.*
[Giving Multiplier](https://givingmultiplier.org/) launched last fall to promote effective giving. You may have read about it at the time in [Future Perfect](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22177289/best-meaningful-ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hMkCxSCFERtjvQp3Z/issues-with-giving-multiplier |
# [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang
The primary purpose of this blog post is to create a public record. Some technical insights are deliberately omitted.
I think we're in an algorithmic AI overhang.
1. Today's neural networks (including GPT) are so data inefficient they will not strictly outcompete human... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QLLWocvi8TazWb4hh/prediction-we-are-in-an-algorithmic-overhang |
# Interview with Skynet
I used GPT-3 to generate Skynet's responses. I frequently backtracked by running the same query multiple times and choosing my favorite response.
---
**Lsusr:** Many of my readers like to speculate about what a superintelligent AI might do. I think baseless speculation is silly. The obvious w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6SEtDrChLDmZQeorb/interview-with-skynet |
# [Book review] Who we are and how we got here
David Reich is a leading researcher in the field of ancient human genetics. In his book **"Who we are and how we got here"** (2018) he describes the latest discoveries in a field that is quickly rewriting the (pre)history books. The field is moving so fast that today, onl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KjYBabCyyZqzzzork/book-review-who-we-are-and-how-we-got-here-1 |
# AI learns betrayal and how to avoid it
## Research projects
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) and [learning the preferences of irrational agents](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oeCXS2ZCn4rPyq7LQ/ai-learns-betrayal-and-how-to-avoid-it |
# My take on Vanessa Kosoy's take on AGI safety
*Confidence level: Low*
Vanessa Kosoy is a deep fountain of knowledge and insights about AGI safety, but I’ve had trouble understanding some aspects of her point of view. Part of the problem is just pedagogy, and part of it (I will argue) is that she has some different ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzrmsbkqydpZyPuEh/my-take-on-vanessa-kosoy-s-take-on-agi-safety |
# Takeoff Speeds and Discontinuities
*This post is part 4 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. We are building a model to understand debates around existential risks from advanced AI. The model is made with* [*Analytica*](https://en.wikipedia.org... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pGXR2ynhe5bBCCNqn/takeoff-speeds-and-discontinuities |
# How can one train philosophical skill?
I'm not sure whether this is better-framed as a babble question or a "serious" question, so, treat it as you will.
If you could sit down and train in philosophy the way you train in arts or sports or maths, how would you do it? What's the Deliberate Practice of philosophy loo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkHcfibD9xxKi8yPH/how-can-one-train-philosophical-skill |
# Some Existing Selection Theorems
This post illustrates how various existing [Selection Theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents) and related results fit the general framework - what they tell us about agent type signatures, and how they (usuall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N2NebPD78ioyWHhNm/some-existing-selection-theorems |
# Covid 9/30: People Respond to Incentives
Another week, more mandates, more numbers that look mostly how one would expect, more nonsensical policies. Not much unexpected to report this week.
Executive Summary
-----------------
About what you’d expect. No key takeaways this week.
Let’s run the numbers.
The Numbers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FzZkmcrWy3bzKHxxN/covid-9-30-people-respond-to-incentives |
# The LessWrong Team is now Lightcone Infrastructure, come work with us!
*tl;dr: The LessWrong team is re-organizing as* [*Lightcone Infrastructure*](http://www.lightconeinfrastructure.com/)*. LessWrong is one of several projects we are working on to ensure the future of humanity goes well. We are looking to hire soft... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eR7Su77N2nK3e5YRZ/the-lesswrong-team-is-now-lightcone-infrastructure-come-work-3 |
# Consider Taking Zinc Every Time You Travel
Edit (November 2022): comments raised some probably valid concerns about my sources. I also don't currently believe it's possible to buy the kind of zinc lozenges studied; they're too unpleasant, what you buy in a drug store has been changed for palatability.
Zinc lozenges... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5DKqK3hEzzBoGF47C/consider-taking-zinc-every-time-you-travel |
# SIA > SSA, part 1: Learning from the fact that you exist
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/09/30/sia-ssa-part-1-learning-from-the-fact-that-you-exist/))
This post is the first in a four-part sequence explaining why I think that one prominent approach to anthropic reasoning is bet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnrpkgSY8zW5ArqPf/sia-greater-than-ssa-part-1-learning-from-the-fact-that-you |
# SIA > SSA, part 2: Telekinesis, reference classes, and other scandals
*(Cross-posted from* [*Hands and Cities*](https://handsandcities.com/2021/09/30/sia-ssa-part-2-telekinesis-reference-classes-and-other-scandals/)*. Previously in sequence:* [*SIA > SSA, part 1: Learning from the fact that you exist*](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GJdymoviRywpBMXqc/sia-greater-than-ssa-part-2-telekinesis-reference-classes |
# SIA > SSA, part 3: An aside on betting in anthropics
*(Cross-posted from* [*Hands and Cities*](https://handsandcities.com/2021/09/30/sia-ssa-part-3-an-aside-on-betting-in-anthropics/)*. Previously in sequence:* [*Part 1: Learning from the fact that you exist*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnrpkgSY8zW5ArqPf/sia-gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QHDqfpMbb43JDbrxN/sia-greater-than-ssa-part-3-an-aside-on-betting-in |
# SIA > SSA, part 4: In defense of the presumptuous philosopher
*(Cross-posted from* [*Hands and Cities*](https://handsandcities.com/2021/09/30/sia-ssa-part-4-in-defense-of-the-presumptuous-philosopher/)*. Previously in sequence:* [*Part 1: Learning from the fact that you exist*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rnrpkg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d693Mc4ZDyhkj7wpc/sia-greater-than-ssa-part-4-in-defense-of-the-presumptuous |
# How does The Circle grow, exactly?
*Epistemic status: still in the middle of working through a thing, off the cuff thoughts. Wears my half-baked current-generation morality on my sleave. *
There's an [EA song, adapted for Solstice](https://humanistculture.bandcamp.com/track/the-circle-scratch-recording), which pres... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xi7Kztj5gBJt4qAgG/how-does-the-circle-grow-exactly |
# Contra Paul Christiano on Sex
Contra Paul Christiano on Sex
=============================
I have come to think that many people don’t understand evolution. Not in the “believe that a sentient deity created the universe after a template” sense. A lot of people seem to “get” the idea of evolution in broad strokes but... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FnHLJvrTAnYygWBaP/contra-paul-christiano-on-sex |
# What Selection Theorems Do We Expect/Want?
This post contains some of my current best guesses at aspects of agent type signatures for which I expect there are useful [Selection Theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents), as well as properties of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RuDD3aQWLDSb4eTXP/what-selection-theorems-do-we-expect-want |
# Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.
Highlights
----------
* Facebook's Forecast [folds](https://mobile.twitter.com/dglid/status/1443024658169843718)
* [Hedgehog Markets](https://hedgehog.markets/) now operational
* Polygon and Augur announce a [$1M liquidity rewards program](https://blog.polygon.technolog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5a8AuyTjQKKJXb8Ro/forecasting-newsletter-september-2021 |
# Meta learning to gradient hack
Summary:
---------
I saw some posts ([here](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB/p/zthDPAjh9w6Ytbeks#fn-xsRHpadWKiBheq9EK-12), [here](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/S2jsBsZvqjBZa3pKT/approaches-to-gradient-hacking), [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KfX7Ld7Be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jh6dkqN2wd7fCRfB5/meta-learning-to-gradient-hack |
# Proposal: Scaling laws for RL generalization
*In this post, we (Alexander Meulemans, David Lindner, Florian Dorner) propose to study scaling laws relating the generalization capability of Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents to problem complexity, inspired by DeepMind’s recent success in training agents that perform w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/65qmEJHDw3vw69tKm/proposal-scaling-laws-for-rl-generalization |
# Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elegans After 10 Years
Since the early 21st century, some transhumanist proponents and futuristic researchers claim that Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) is not merely science fiction - although still hypothetical, it's said to be a potentially viable technology in the near future... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mHqQxwKuzZS69CXX5/whole-brain-emulation-no-progress-on-c-elegans-after-10 |
# The Simulation Hypothesis Undercuts the SIA/Great Filter Doomsday Argument
*This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views.*
Summary
=======
* The absence of evidence for extraterrestrial life suggests the exis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HF2vpnmgqmHyLGRrA/the-simulation-hypothesis-undercuts-the-sia-great-filter |
# Book Review: Spark! How exercise will improve the performance of your brain
Physical exercise is ***HUGELY*** important for both your physical and mental health. This books focuses mostly on the mental side and just from the table of contents of the book we see the wide variety of problems where exercise can help:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhz9wgTiEQcZCYWwT/book-review-spark-how-exercise-will-improve-the-performance |
# Forecasting Compute - Transformative AI and Compute [2/4]
*Cross-posted [here on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YNB39RyJ7iAQKGJvq/forecasting-compute-transformative-ai-and-compute-2-4)*.
_Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach - Part 2 out of 4_
This is part two of the seri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sHAaMpdk9FT9XsLvB/forecasting-compute-transformative-ai-and-compute-2-4 |
# The underappreciated value of original thinking below the frontier
When is it more valuable to do original thinking? Probably the most common assumption/implied advice here is that it's pointless to try to come up with anything original until you've consumed the entire field and can work on the frontier of knowledge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KmkZriGwkn2vDx8gB/the-underappreciated-value-of-original-thinking-below-the |
# Occam's Razor and the Universal Prior
> *It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience. -* [*Albert Einstein*]( https://www.nature.com/art... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RKfg86eKQuqLnjGxx/occam-s-razor-and-the-universal-prior |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Contestants
123 players submitted a total of 556 species. Most players submitted just 1 species. One player submitted 11. (I disqualified his[^1] 11ᵗʰ submission.) 555 species qualified for entry. I expected more players would submit 10 species compared to 8 or 9 in order to max out their submissi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WCS4ncPLaSJmPAMDd/2021-darwin-game-contestants |
# Engaging with hypotheticals as they are defined
## Some arguments against with total utilitarianism
### Utility monsters
"Utility monster" is a term coined by Robert Nozick as part of a critique of total utilitarianism. He explains the term as such:
> "Utilitarian theory is embarrassed by the possibility of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Dx7zxoKzshcuErQh/engaging-with-hypotheticals-as-they-are-defined |
# What makes us happy and depressed?
This post is a cross-post from my [personal blog](https://www.mariushobbhahn.com/?from=@).
**What is this post about?**
----------------------------
This post is the result of a long inquiry into happiness and depression and was kicked off by two other resources. The first is Luk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oSuBh7snrfpKrWpEK/what-makes-us-happy-and-depressed |
# Porchfest 2021
Yesterday, I played at Somerville Porchfest with several contradance friends. This is an annual festival that has been running since 2011, [modeled after Ithaca](https://www.wbur.org/news/2018/05/09/guide-to-this-summers-boston-area-porchfests)'s event of the same name. Bands sign up to play music on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EJ5RHzor8u6p7JQ3m/porchfest-2021 |
# Dissolving the Experience Machine Objection
The experience machine objection is often levied against utilitarian theories that depend on utility being a function of observations or brain states. The version of the argument I'm considering here is a more cruxified version that strips out a bunch of confounding factor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BFfySy4t7uiTfFq5g/dissolving-the-experience-machine-objection |
# [Book Review] Evolution of Sex
I was prompted to write this book review after reading [Paul Christiano’s post](http://sex is like a trade: I’ll put half of your DNA in my offspring if you put half of my DNA in your) on the evolution of sex and [George’s response](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FnHLJvrTAnYygWBaP/con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWGJXNdBEC7iQ5rhy/book-review-evolution-of-sex |
# The Dark Side of Cognition Hypothesis
It is sometimes claimed that the ultimate, unifying goal of artificial intelligence research is to instantiate human-level cognition in a computational system (e.g., Minsky, 1961; Lake et al, 2017). If artificial general intelligence (AGI) of this sort is ever successfully devel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8GY7LTFHuitFqwAaH/the-dark-side-of-cognition-hypothesis |
# How to build a mind - neuroscience edition
**TL;DR: The early development of the brain, from molecular biology via dynamical systems to the theory of computation. Some speculation about how everything fits together.**
Apologia
========
There is a story about John Nash that I like a lot. John Nash is a famous mathe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n7YsQCeRhSZxpyjzK/how-to-build-a-mind-neuroscience-edition |
# Vax passports - theory and practice
It’s been about three weeks since New York City began - at least, nominally - enforcing its new Key to NYC program. That’s our new mandate requiring proof of vaccination for indoor dining. I’ve eaten out several times since it started, and I think that’s given me some new insight ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c6iGuQduFjznpvuvK/vax-passports-theory-and-practice |
# Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (book review)
Summary
=======
Blink is a book about people making unconscious emotional judgments, and how this isn't always a bad thing. In certain circumstances ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/idqFd6koKcdh7Ecwr/blink-the-power-of-thinking-without-thinking-book-review |
# An analysis of the Less Wrong D&D.Sci 4th Edition game
This is an analysis of the game described in [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cgmuJzC75bJXhLkwi/d-and-d-sci-4th-edition-league-of-defenders-of-the-storm) \- you might want to read that first. Or if you don't want to, here's a quick summary: There's a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tWQF3LBkaQDK8aqcG/an-analysis-of-the-less-wrong-d-and-d-sci-4th-edition-game |
# Trust and The Small World Fallacy
When people encounter other people they recognize, they exclaim "small world!"
I suspect that most people have 300 acquaintances or less. I probably have under 100. Still, sometimes I run into people I know and I'm tempted to say "small world".
But it's not actually a small world,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/StxoR4EqAYB3duRjK/trust-and-the-small-world-fallacy |
# What role should LW play in AI Safety?
Many people on LW consider AI Safety either the most, or one of the most, important issues that humanity has to deal with. Surprisingly, I've seen very little discussion about how the LW community slots in here. I'm sure that the Lightcone team has discussed this extensively, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XtkFLQbCP5gRAZEPZ/what-role-should-lw-play-in-ai-safety |
# Candy Innovation
What innovations in candy have there been since the '90s? Are there new flavors? Better imitations of existing flavors? New textures?
So far, all of the candy my kids have brought home seems to be things we could get 25 years ago. Though possibly flavors have improved, since I've only been trying w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ohW2oruQjzYSwR57w/candy-innovation |
# To every people according to their language
Here is an approximate transcript of a conversation I had with a friend, who is an Orthodox Jew.
Transcript
----------
ME: Imagine the US government announced a Manhattan project to reverse aging and end death forever. It's estimated this project will cost 5% of GDP. The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KXN8rAdWedjvBwrfh/to-every-people-according-to-their-language |
# Andrew Yang on "The Priests of the Decline"
In this post excerpted from his new book, Andrew Yang uses his experience in politics to explain why the US political system rarely accomplishes much. It's strikingly similar to another recent post someone shared from Dominic Cummings: [Dominic Cummings : Regime Change #2:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jhb4k6uqbwmGDufaa/andrew-yang-on-the-priests-of-the-decline |
# [Book Review] "I Contain Multitudes" by Ed Yong
I have read this book once before, just before I went to university, and I found it immensely enlightening at the time. Now I return to it as an older man, and find it has lost a lot of its shine. I don't know if this is reflective of my loss of naivete, or increase in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CrPWzBLAvPLyQvLC3/book-review-i-contain-multitudes-by-ed-yong |
# Open & Welcome Thread October 2021
(
I saw October didn't have one. First post - please let me know if I do something wrong.
To whoever comes after me: Yoav Ravid comments that the wording could use an update.
)
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjFkEcw26GGHrjMXu/open-and-welcome-thread-october-2021 |
# How good is security for LessWrong and the Alignment Forum?
As far as I can tell, LessWrong/Alignment Forum haven’t been noticeably attacked or disrupted. However, I’m concerned that could change because:
- Attack command, control and automation will definitely improve, making more sophisticated attacks easier to de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8mDMXEDaZdeWq2gLC/how-good-is-security-for-lesswrong-and-the-alignment-forum |
# Nuclear Espionage and AI Governance
ABSTRACT:
==========
*Using both primary and secondary sources, I discuss the role of espionage in early nuclear history. Nuclear weapons are analogous to AI in many ways, so this period may hold lessons for AI governance. Nuclear spies successfully transferred information about... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GwxotzGc2ipRNweg3/nuclear-espionage-and-ai-governance |
# What can we learn from traditional societies?
I have been reading books on Anthropology for a few years now and the one that ignited my passion on the topic was Jared Diamonds' very popular Guns, Germs and Steel. Jared Diamond is a polymath, historian, anthropologist and physiologist, fluent in many languages, a Pul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bqsNdkbGaKGxrarQB/what-can-we-learn-from-traditional-societies |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Tundra
Our Tundra is an inhospitable[^1] environment. The only significant food available to herbivores is Lichen, which has a tiny nutritional value of 1. The Tundra is cold too. Staying warm requires the cold tolerance adaptation, which costs +2 size.
 and [learning the preferences of irration... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pdJqEzbQrucTEF6DW/force-neural-nets-to-use-models-then-detect-these |
# D&D.Sci 4th Edition: League of Defenders of the Storm Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a follow-up to [last week's D&D.Sci scenario](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cgmuJzC75bJXhLkwi/d-and-d-sci-4th-edition-league-of-defenders-of-the-storm): if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now befor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c6aiYkvmsBpeNBDKA/d-and-d-sci-4th-edition-league-of-defenders-of-the-storm-1 |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Desert
Our Desert is an inhospitable environment. Carrion, while nutritious, is hard to digest and there's not a lot of it. Species must be adapted to the heat too.
| Carrion... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8kTywiMk3x9Pqmwwd/2021-darwin-game-desert |
# Appropriately Gray Products
Epistemic status:
- I've been in the startup world for a while, have read almost all of Paul Graham's essays, have read The Lean Startup cover-to-cover, etc. However, it's possible that I am misunderstanding/misrepresenting the idea of an MVP here. If so, I apologize and would like to be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PoyqEaHGn3Hg9zgsh/appropriately-gray-products |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Ocean
The Ocean has lots of algae, a little carrion and a little detritus. It was the most popular biome, with 131 native species.
| Name | Carrion | Leaves | Grass | Seeds | Detritus | Coconuts | Alga... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6PxmGQJbEQnb8FJep/2021-darwin-game-ocean |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Benthic
Welcome to the depths of the sea, far beyond the reach of sunlight. Here ye shall feast upon the dead.
| Name | Carrion | Leaves | Grass | Seeds | Detritus | Coconuts | Alga... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqySc5DcvD7vqtnt7/2021-darwin-game-benthic |
# We're Redwood Research, we do applied alignment research, AMA
Redwood Research is a longtermist organization working on AI alignment based in Berkeley, California. We're going to do an AMA this week; we'll answer questions mostly on Wednesday and Thursday this week (6th and 7th of October). Buck Shlegeris, Bill Zito... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHvHvBR8L6oycnMXe/we-re-redwood-research-we-do-applied-alignment-research-ama |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Human Garbage Dump
The human garbage dump is a place you can find anything. It was also (to me) surprisingly popular with 90 species submitted.
| Name | Carrion | Leaves ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cusGhxwgdXuw3CwJA/2021-darwin-game-human-garbage-dump |
# 2021 Darwin Game - River
The River contains lots of every foragable food. The River is like the Human Garbage Dump except:
1. It has 5x as many resources.
2. Both air-breathing and water-breathing species can survive in the River.
3. Organisms may not start in the River. They must wander in.
 psychology papers
## Research projects
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) and [learning the preferences of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FsxPNRJ5NQkrSKyDx/preferences-from-real-and-hypothetical-psychology-papers |
# Is GPT-3 already sample-efficient?
_(Concrete, easy-to-answer question below, explanation first)_
Common adage: Modern deep learning techniques are sample-inefficient; it takes loads of data for them to learn things. If you pre-train them, it takes less additional data for them to learn something new, but still com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Eg5AEMhGdyyKRWmZW/is-gpt-3-already-sample-efficient |
# 2021 Darwin Game - Everywhere Else
# Shore
The Shore is an inhospitable wasteland. Algae is available, but it's not very nitrutious. Coconuts offer an even worse calories-to-digestion ratio.
| Name | Carrion | Leaves ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ha5w7XeSdHbGLoYjq/2021-darwin-game-everywhere-else |
# How do bounded utility functions work if you are uncertain how close to the bound your utility is?
If you are trying to calculate the value of a choice using a bounded utility function, how can you be sure whether you are close or far from the bound, whatever the bound is? How do you account for uncertainty about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H3WsY5ZsXHeWGKPez/how-do-bounded-utility-functions-work-if-you-are-uncertain |
# Considerations on Compensation
This post was prompted by the [recent announcement of Lightcone Infrastructure](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eR7Su77N2nK3e5YRZ/the-lesswrong-team-is-now-lightcone-infrastructure-come-work-3), and particularly [Elizabeth's response](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eR7Su77N2nK3e5YRZ/t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AQRDKLZGXNF4ndLzA/considerations-on-compensation |
# Automated Fact Checking: A Look at the Field
Intro / Motivation
------------------
This post is the write-up of a few days reading the automated fact-checking literature.
As AIs become more powerful, it would be very valuable to be able to train an agent to be able to tell us, not just whether particular statemen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CWD8FxA3yJPmZE9o3/automated-fact-checking-a-look-at-the-field |
# Cheap food causes cooperative ethics
Nobody has ever fought a war over the oxygen in the air because there's plenty of oxygen to go around. We fight over things that are scarce and valuable. Historically, most wars have been fought over land and people. If you win you get to force your subjects to collect raw materi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cLehpZAY3HZuEQbHe/cheap-food-causes-cooperative-ethics |
# Towards a Bayesian model for Empirical Science
The aim of this post is to explore if we can create a model for doing Empirical Science that better incorporates Bayesian ideas.
The Current Model Of Doing Science
----------------------------------
Imagine you are a Good Scientist. You know about p-hacking and the re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aCkyjwnbozYgcBiYo/towards-a-bayesian-model-for-empirical-science |
# Covid 10/7: Steady as She Goes
For the second week in a row little has changed. The biggest news is that Merck has a new anti-viral pill that looks to be somewhat effective as a treatment. Otherwise, it should be a quick week. Which is good, since I spent the week moving (to New York City! to Manhattan! Woo-hoo!) an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ha5HTcsciA7AhMiJf/covid-10-7-steady-as-she-goes-1 |
# Blog Post Day IV (Impromptu)
I decided to run another Blog Post Day. It's happening this Saturday the 9th. Sorry for the short notice!
Why do it? See [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q972DHxCwZKFbEPMn/blog-post-day-unofficial).
If you are interested, you can join us online via this [special-purpose disc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qKcbMybppNs5nMQB6/blog-post-day-iv-impromptu |
# Safety-capabilities tradeoff dials are inevitable in AGI
A safety-capabilities tradeoff is when you have something like a dial on your AGI, and one end of the dial says “more safe but less capable”, and the other end of the dial says “less safe but more capable”.
Make no mistake: **safety-capabilities tradeoff dial... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tmyTb4bQQi7C47sde/safety-capabilities-tradeoff-dials-are-inevitable-in-agi |
# Book summary: Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids
Bryan Caplan's _Selfish reasons to have more kids: why being a great parent is less work and more fun than you think_ was recommended to me as a strongly-science-supported take on childrearing. I found it valuable; here are my take-aways.
**TLDR:** Variation in paren... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWnw2o42SHcJWFYJi/book-summary-selfish-reasons-to-have-more-kids |
# What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?
> **Gross domestic product (GDP)** is a [monetary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money) [measure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measurement_in_economics) of the market value of all the [final goods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_good) and services produced in a specific t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FcRt3xAF4ynojfj6G/what-do-gdp-growth-curves-really-mean |
# No Really, There Are No Rules!
All video games are made by programmers, but Baba Is You was *made* by programmers. Also the title screen contains a link to [givingwhatwecan.org](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), which I feel obliged to mention.
 The Genetic Lottery: Why DNA Matters for Social Equality
Consider this: Your child is struggling in school. What might be going on? Perhaps home life is chaotic and stressful. Perhaps the school itself lacks resources. Maybe other kids bully them because of their kinky hair or strange accent or their h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ov5Fy4AkuyaahjGpA/book-review-the-genetic-lottery-why-dna-matters-for-social |
# Perceptual dexterity: a case study
My partner [Logan Brienne Strohl](https://www.loganstrohl.com/) has been doing original rationality development off and on for the past ten years (and "on" for at least the past three).
A week or so ago, I received a long email from them, which they summarized as follows:
> Dunca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dD4yrgQAxeftjkdoM/perceptual-dexterity-a-case-study |
# How much slower is remote work?
I'm a bit of a productivity nerd, and I like to keep track of how long tasks take. Sometimes this involves [actually tracking everything I do all day](https://makingshitwork.wordpress.com/2016/07/13/07-12-2016/), although most of the time I just keep rough mental track.
Given that lo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tN2CdskiLJxKDMF6k/how-much-slower-is-remote-work |
# Noragami
*Noragami* is a 12-episode anime that aired in 2014. The first 11 episodes are fine. I liked them but I didn't understand why until the 12ᵗʰ episode. The 12ᵗʰ episode blew me away.
Japan today has many layers of f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbmtSRfBehoq6ui6f/noragami |
# Glen Weyl: "Why I Was Wrong to Demonize Rationalism"
[Glen Weyl reflects](https://www.radicalxchange.org/media/blog/why-i-was-wrong-to-demonize-rationalism/) on his previous disparagement of the social scene surrounding this website, and expresses regret at having been too hostile: while he stands by many of his spe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cExAYPCSGhx5NgfWY/glen-weyl-why-i-was-wrong-to-demonize-rationalism |
# “Eating Dirt Benefits Kids” is Basically Made Up
Sometimes people imply that epistemic spot checks are a waste of time, that it’s too easy to create false beliefs with statements that are literally true but fundamentally misleading. And sometimes they’re right.
On the other hand, sometimes you spend 4 hours and dis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JzJcgsKBf35FeuZSD/eating-dirt-benefits-kids-is-basically-made-up |
# Questions about YIMBY
If you want to change the world, start by giving people free books. Or at least, this is the approach of the [Adam Smith Institute](https://www.adamsmith.org/), a free-market think tank in the UK. At an event of theirs, they gave me a copy of John Myers’ little book (or long paper) [*YIMBY: How... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LAdm6guNdAENBpdJg/questions-about-yimby |
# [AN #166]: Is it crazy to claim we're in the most important century?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YbAZ4nSA8itL2EkDb/an-166-is-it-crazy-to-claim-we-re-in-the-most-important |
# Booster shots from same vs different vaccines
What is the current thinking on whether it's safe and effective to get a COVID booster shot from a different vaccine than the one you originally received? For example, getting a Pfizer shot if you originally got J&J. Is it *more* effective than getting a booster shot of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lmuo6eAthGRiZb7LR/booster-shots-from-same-vs-different-vaccines |
# Book Review: Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite
Book review: Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite: Evolution and the
Modular Mind, by Robert Kurzban.
### Minds are Modular
Many people explain minds by positing that they\'re composed of parts:
- the id, ego, and super-ego
- the left side and the right si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFEaLsY9reuvZEqrZ/book-review-why-everyone-else-is-a-hypocrite |
# Shoulder Advisors 101
*Motivation for post: As a former CFAR instructor, longtime teacher, and rationality pundit, I find myself giving lots of advice in lots of different contexts. I also try to check in from time to time to find out which bits of advice actually proved helpful to people. Over the years, I've hea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X79Rc5cA5mSWBexnd/shoulder-advisors-101 |
# Steelman arguments against the idea that AGI is inevitable and will arrive soon
I’m pretty sure that AGI is almost inevitable, and will arrive in the next decade or two.
But what if I’m wrong and the "overpopulation on Mars" [folks](https://www.theregister.com/2015/03/19/andrew_ng_baidu_ai/) are right?
Let’s try ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kijTbgfizDgSgst3/steelman-arguments-against-the-idea-that-agi-is-inevitable |
# Bayeswatch 11: Parabellum
Vi wore a suit. She held an empty briefcase in her hand.
"It's not often Bayeswatch agents visit us mere humans on Hive Hill," said Trinity.
"I'm here in no formal capacity. I'm on mandatory medical leave. I collect a regular salary for the rest of my life. In exchange, all I have to do i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aAkkHf82iYGzcNNoz/bayeswatch-11-parabellum |
# How to think about and deal with OpenAI
Eliezer Yudkowsky [writes on twitter](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1446562238848847877):
> Nothing else Elon Musk has done can possibly make up for how hard the "OpenAI" launch trashed humanity's chances of survival; previously there was a nascent spirit of cooperat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oEC92fNXPj6wxz8dd/how-to-think-about-and-deal-with-openai |
# Apprenticeship Online
If humans stopped imitating, civilization would vanish.
It is 6:37 in the morning as I’m sitting down to write this, late in August, and I and the three-year-old are down in the old stable we use as study. As I look over my notes, she observes me. Mist is leaking through a crack in the window.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cwDTFx8ATb3pZxoSu/apprenticeship-online |
# Intelligence or Evolution?
Here are two kinds of super high-level explanation for how things turned out in the future:
1. Someone wanted things to turn out that way.
2. Selective forces favoured that outcome.
Which one is a better explanation?
This question is one I’m highly uncertain about, and often shows up ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TATWqHvxKEpL34yKz/intelligence-or-evolution |
# Book Review: Churchill and Orwell
You may have heard of [George Orwell as the man who presaged some of the sequences’ insights on rationality, especially as applied to the English language](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lz64L3yJEtYGkzMzu/rationality-and-the-english-language). You might have heard of [Winston Churc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oRcabK3Pumn36A6KG/book-review-churchill-and-orwell |
# Debugging Writer's Block
The hardest part of writing for me is dealing with writer's block. It appears almost every time I sit down to write–I'll have everything ready: the time, the space, and the super exciting idea I want to share. But right then, the words won't come! And when they eventually do, they come out i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AcYFjXsbm5gmNsJrh/debugging-writer-s-block |
# Bayeswatch 12: The Singularity War
The Singularity Cyberwar took 6 minutes. Vanilla human beings never again led an organization larger than a million people.
The missile exchange took 6 hours. It destroyed all significant semiconductor fabricators. Computronium became a nonrenewable resource.
The world's aircraft... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/To2LyCbYb4DrFX3fX/bayeswatch-12-the-singularity-war |
# The Extrapolation Problem
In [a previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QLLWocvi8TazWb4hh/prediction-we-are-in-an-algorithmic-overhang) I predicted that machine learning is limited by the algorithms it uses (as opposed to hardware or data). This has two big implications:
- Scaling up existing systems will not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ASxdfSKTbcEy6MCr3/the-extrapolation-problem |
# Without a phone for 10 days
I woke up this morning to a bricked Google Pixel 4. After taking it to a local repair shop for a diagnosis, I was told that a fuse had been blown on the motherboard. A board-level repair would cost half as much as a brand new phone, and I was thinking about upgrading to the new Pixel 6 on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qfgLFpnTzSfspBtwa/without-a-phone-for-10-days |
# Book Review: Open Borders
*Edit: I now have a* [*comment response post*](https://samenright.com/2021/10/29/response-to-the-comments-on-open-borders/) *for this post on my personal website.*
*This is a (significantly updated)* [*cross*](https://samenright.com/2021/01/07/open-borders-book-review/)*-*[*post*](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R2nQzjduu2mNogCQM/book-review-open-borders |
# The evaluation function of an AI is not its aim
I think this is a relatively straightforward point, but it's one that I think has definitely led to confused thinking on my part about AI alignment, and presumably on others. After writing this post Ruby pointed out there's an [entire sequence](https://www.lesswrong.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trA3wEA7oXw3TF4ho/the-evaluation-function-of-an-ai-is-not-its-aim |
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