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# Decreasing Isolation Further
The timing of the omicron spike was hard on everyone, but I felt especially bad about how it impacted Lily (7y) and Anna (5y). For months we had been telling them that while they couldn't do various things they would be able to do them once they were fully vaccinated, and then two weeks—... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CDiDhndfxBD98tiyW/decreasing-isolation-further |
# The case for "mental strength"
Recently, I was thinking about the differences between physical health
and physical fitness, and wondering if there is an analogous
distinction on the mental side. Googling, I found that the term
"mental strength" is often used for the mental counterpart to physical
fitness; "mental fi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zeT3rHE7eu2xhmWPi/the-case-for-mental-strength |
# Paradigm-building: Introduction
John Wentworth has described the current phase of AGI safety research as [preparadigmatic](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/3L46WGauGpr7nYubu/the-plan)—that is (courtesy of the [APA](https://dictionary.apa.org/preparadigmatic-science)), “a science at a \[very early\] stage of deve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4TuzWEKysvYdhRXLd/paradigm-building-introduction |
# Meditation and Neuroscience, some odds and ends
\[cross-posted to [my blog](https://meditationstuff.wordpress.com/2022/02/07/meditation-and-neuroscience-some-odds-and-ends/)\]
\[**About me:** I'm the [meditationstuff](https://linktr.ee/meditationstuff) guy and the "folding" guy. I have a PhD in bioengineering, duri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e6wHMpALit7ECwBnA/meditation-and-neuroscience-some-odds-and-ends |
# How complex are myopic imitators?
*This post was written under Evan Hubinger’s direct guidance and mentorship, as a part of the* [*Stanford Existential Risks Institute ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) program*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FpokmCnbP3CEZ5h4t/ml-alignment-theory-program-under-evan-hubinger)*.*
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2eRgFFeeS7pR4R8nD/how-complex-are-myopic-imitators-1 |
# Appendix: More Is Different In Other Domains
In _[Future ML Systems Will Be Qualitatively Different](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/p/1527e9dd-c48d-4941-9b14-4f7293318d5c/)_, I argued that we should expect ML systems to exhibit emergent capabilities. My main support for this was four historical examples of emergenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3daPPjWbjYNP6nbre/appendix-more-is-different-in-other-domains |
# Metaculus launches contest for essays with quantitative predictions about AI
Metaculus has launched the AI Progress Essay Contest which aims to attract systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI Forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years. Of particular interest is rigorous and nuanced thinking abo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j5shgF5LJC75GoXrt/metaculus-launches-contest-for-essays-with-quantitative |
# Paradigm-building from first principles: Effective altruism, AGI, and alignment
**Introduction**
----------------
If we are interested in the theoretical foundations that motivate work in AGI safety research, it seems worthwhile to clarify the philosophical and practical relationships of big-picture ideas in [effec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ieCSPoxgcrxaffv6/paradigm-building-from-first-principles-effective-altruism |
# Hypothesis: gradient descent prefers general circuits
**Summary:** I discuss a potential mechanistic explanation for why SGD might prefer general circuits for generating model outputs. I use this preference to explain how models can learn to generalize even after overfitting to near zero training error (i.e., grokki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JFibrXBewkSDmixuo/hypothesis-gradient-descent-prefers-general-circuits |
# "Moral progress" vs. the simple passage of time
In [Future-Proof Ethics](https://www.cold-takes.com/future-proof-ethics/), I talked about trying to "consistently \[make\] ethical decisions that look better, with hindsight after a great deal of moral progress, than what our peer-trained intuitions tell us to do."
I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bi84NyFqGHsmfZjhu/moral-progress-vs-the-simple-passage-of-time |
# Interest in a digital LW "book" club?
Prompted by [interest](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qtDZHBx6LpAR7ejDD/what-standalone-lesswrong-posts-would-you-recommend-to-most) in LW on EA forum, I thought people might be interested in a digital book club. We'd pick a couple classic posts every 2-4 weeks. One o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QuqRcsfLY6854fKN6/interest-in-a-digital-lw-book-club |
# Better impossibility result for unbounded utilities
This post slightly improves on the impossibility results in [my last post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hbmsW2k9DxED5Z4eJ) and [*A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values*](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Beckstead-Thomas-A-Pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJxHRxnuFudzBFPuu/better-impossibility-result-for-unbounded-utilities |
# Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
Betting markets are the gold standard of expert predictions because bets are the ultimate test of what people truly believe.
The best betting markets are highly liquid. A liquid market is one where you can place a large bet without moving the price very much. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5Dq9AyXqYfhLiaC3/prediction-markets-are-for-outcomes-beyond-our-control |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 3. Two subsystems: Learning & Steering
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
3.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hE56gYi5d68uux9oM/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-3-two-subsystems-learning-and |
# Paradigm-building: The hierarchical question framework
**The framework**
-----------------
Here, I will briefly introduce what I hope is a fundamental and potentially comprehensive set of questions that an AGI safety research agenda would need to answer correctly in order to be successful. In other words, I am clai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/smLEgf2tHsS5NHAf6/paradigm-building-the-hierarchical-question-framework |
# Mailing Lists for Event Announcements
Let's say I'm organizing a repeated event like a meetup or dance series: how should I let people know about it so they can decide whether they want to attend? You can break the world down into three groups:
1. People who wouldn't be interested, even after fully learning about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/efhnGtnHwxrERomts/mailing-lists-for-event-announcements |
# Create a prediction market in two minutes on Manifold Markets
*Crossposted from* [*https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/above-the-fold-manifold-is-ready*](https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/above-the-fold-manifold-is-ready)
TL;DR: [Manifold Markets](http://manifold.markets/) is:
* A new prediction market p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qcYu6fMb6qg4zcftn/create-a-prediction-market-in-two-minutes-on-manifold |
# Epistemic Legibility
Tl;dr: being easy to argue with is a virtue, separate from being correct.
Introduction
============
Regular readers of my blog know of my [epistemic spot check series](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/), where I take claims (evidential or logical) from a work of nonfiction an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jbE85wCkRr9z7tqmD/epistemic-legibility |
# Bernal Heights: acquisition of a bicycle
The measure of a good bicycle, according to me, is that you can’t ride it without opening your mouth in joy and occasionally exclaiming things like ‘fuck yeah bicycle’. This is an idiosyncratic spec, and I had no reason to think that it might be fulfilled by any electric bicy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xhrb5PfEzfPHWcZgm/bernal-heights-acquisition-of-a-bicycle |
# Why rationalists are not much concerned about mortality?
As of 2022, humans have a life expectancy of ~80 years and a hard limit of ~120. Most rationalists I know agree that dying is a bad thing and at minimum we should have an option to live considerably longer and free of the "diseases of the age", if not indefini... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koWia2KgN6EfHn26Q/why-rationalists-are-not-much-concerned-about-mortality |
# Bet on Rare Undesirable Outcomes when Seeding a Prediction Market
Suppose you run an insurance company that insures buildings against burglars. You recently sold insurance to a client with a building in a new city you have never operated in before. You need to know how likely it is for a burglar to break into your c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LsyuX5rLsApZFdQGp/bet-on-rare-undesirable-outcomes-when-seeding-a-prediction |
# EleutherAI's GPT-NeoX-20B release
> GPT-NeoX-20B is a 20 billion parameter autoregressive language model whose weights will be made freely and openly available to the public through a permissive license. It is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest dense autoregressive model that has publicly available weights. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KkSncxP2jQ3nmtmEv/eleutherai-s-gpt-neox-20b-release |
# Inferring utility functions from locally non-transitive preferences
As part of the [AI Safety Camp](https://aisafety.camp/), I've been diving a bit deeper into the foundations of expected utility theory and preference learning. In this post, I am making explicit a connection between those two things that (I assume) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QZiGEDiobFz8ropA5/inferring-utility-functions-from-locally-non-transitive |
# Your Enemies Can Use Your Prediction Markets Against You
It is the year 2525. Earth and Mars are in a state of cold war against each other. Both planets import uranium from Ceres. Ceres' government is pro-Earth…for now. Earth needs to know how likely it is the Ceres government will be overthrown and replaced by a pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RzDehSs7KQcBpa2bf/your-enemies-can-use-your-prediction-markets-against-you |
# The Long Long Covid Post
A while back I mentioned I’d aim to write a longer post on Long Covid and [Katja Grace’s post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JiLcxpWzCrnwkndsT/long-covid-probably-worth-avoiding-some-considerations) on it. This is that post. First I deal with Katja’s post, then Scott Alexander’s [Long Covi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mh3xapTix6fFtd3xM/the-long-long-covid-post |
# Rituals and symbolism
\[Context: In the seven years I've been living in the Bay Area, I've attended two Rationalist Solstices. Both times I basically hated the experience. I don't really know why, but in thinking about it I think I've understood something worth saying about rituals and symbolism. (I don't thin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tmvcLFyirfJvpC2wN/rituals-and-symbolism |
# Question 1: Predicted architecture of AGI learning algorithm(s)
**Exploring the possible space of learning architectures**
----------------------------------------------------------
Here is the ultimate challenge: in order to control something, one generally has to understand how it works—i.e., to accurately predic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/snwpyAfzoFKdfnEDj/question-1-predicted-architecture-of-agi-learning-algorithm |
# Covid 2/10/22: Happy Birthday
Happy birthday. This week CNN’s home page literally led with a story about a boy trapped down a well, then pivoted to Olympic coverage with a side of continued complaining about Donald Trump. Two years into the pandemic, [we have normality](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Iw8qUTLBok&ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SLgWqr7AoexBEai8f/covid-2-10-22-happy-birthday |
# Clarifying the palatability theory of obesity
Here, I intend to clarify the core claims of the palatability theory of obesity outlined by Stephan J. Guyenet in his book [*The Hungry Brain*](https://www.stephanguyenet.com/thehungrybrain/) ([reviewed by Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/04/25/book-revie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cAxKAL9dJhbiWxWaH/clarifying-the-palatability-theory-of-obesity |
# Why do people avoid vaccination?
I’ve been fairly confused by the popularity in the US of remaining unvaccinated, in the face of seemingly a non-negligible, relatively immediate personal chance of death or intense illness. And due to the bubbliness of society, I don’t actually seem to know unvaccinated people to ask... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4fbxsxooeixcuQQ3/why-do-people-avoid-vaccination |
# [Linkpost] TrojanNet: Embedding Hidden Trojan Horse Models in Neural Networks
[TrojanNet: Embedding Hidden Trojan Horse Models in Neural Networks](https://ar5iv.org/html/2002.10078?fbclid=IwAR0R7Brl3R6SLbRqFetSDM6hH0nV83duJHFYTFUkyIin6-1FWI9zZK9yxiM)
TL;DR:
> TrojanNet embeds a neural network within another neura... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rmmWceAsBtBTLuMix/linkpost-trojannet-embedding-hidden-trojan-horse-models-in |
# Simplify EA Pitches to "Holy Shit, X-Risk"
**TL;DR** If you believe the key claims of "there is a >=1% chance of AI causing x-risk and >=0.1% chance of bio causing x-risk in my lifetime" this is enough to justify the core action relevant points of EA. This clearly matters under most reasonable moral views and the co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aCzJKKFN3RC3zsJSD/simplify-ea-pitches-to-holy-shit-x-risk |
# No, human life was not a misery until the 1950s
There is an extant meme about early human history, that the invention of agriculture was a huge mistake. Noah Yuval Hariri popularized the idea in *Sapiens*. He pointed out that ancient foragers were “taller and healthier than their peasant descendants”. Foragers also ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdoJyqBBD4yidcpcG/no-human-life-was-not-a-misery-until-the-1950s |
# Theses on Sleep
Published originally (with all of the footnotes) on my site: [https://guzey.com/theses-on-sleep/](https://guzey.com/theses-on-sleep/)
* * *
**Summary:** In this essay, I question some of the consensus beliefs about sleep, such as the need for at least 7 hours of sleep for adults, harmfulness of acu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HvcZmKS43SLCbJvRb/theses-on-sleep |
# Online Privacy: Should you Care?
***Epistemic status:** Initially, this was a practical advice post, because I thought privacy was obviously important. After some discussion, I realised that I cared about privacy as a* [*terminal goal,*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n5ucT5ZbPdhfGNLtP/terminal-values-and-instrumen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfLAeJMSMzH4qKvkq/online-privacy-should-you-care |
# To Match the Greats, Don’t Follow In Their Footsteps
People who dream of being like the great innovators in history often try working in the same fields - physics for people who dream of being like Einstein, biology for people who dream of being like Darwin, etc.
But this seems backwards to me. To be as revolutiona... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Qe6xDEDePbdHs653/to-match-the-greats-don-t-follow-in-their-footsteps |
# Does needle anxiety drive vaccine hesitancy?
Yesterday, Katja Grace asked, "[Why do people avoid vaccination?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4fbxsxooeixcuQQ3/why-do-people-avoid-vaccination)" I [suggested](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4fbxsxooeixcuQQ3/why-do-people-avoid-vaccination?commentId=BnDcqMWSsrDXk5PB... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cvNvfdibC3qa6PYBt/does-needle-anxiety-drive-vaccine-hesitancy |
# Full Non-Indexical Conditioning Also Assumes A Self Sampling Process.
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tkhQC9YBgQAcgBLRP/the-first-person-and-the-physical-person), I argued for the distinction between the first-person and physical person. I purpose the root cause of paradoxes in anthropics is co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3YQ2pMr6xxLYvCTuN/full-non-indexical-conditioning-also-assumes-a-self-sampling |
# A Nice Representation of the Laplacian
_Epistemic status: some proofs here may well contain a small bug._
The Laplacian of a function from n-dimensional space to the real line is a generalization of the second derivative of a normal function: specifically, it’s the sum of second derivatives of the function along ea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ypz83peTgputehxSC/a-nice-representation-of-the-laplacian |
# Chaos and Stability
Human lifespan, athletic performance and the number of children a woman can gestate are short-tailed. We operate within hard physical limits. Wealth, power, fame, pandemics, religions, [pleasure and pain](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zngNroAj62y4FWaAM/pleasure-and-pain-are-long-tailed) are lon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DyJfKHPnWcS4ej8bZ/chaos-and-stability |
# D&D.SCP: Anomalous Acquisitions
STORY (somewhat longer than usual, still skippable)
===================================================
When you graduated top of your class from Data Science School, you didn't care where you ended up working, you just wanted to find the highest-paid job possible. (Your student loa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ikirGAsPufYAxhcu/d-and-d-scp-anomalous-acquisitions |
# Most likely is not likely
Cross-posted from [Telescopic Turnip](https://malmesbury.substack.com/p/most-likely-is-not-likely).
*“And I stop at every mirror just to stare at my own posterior.”* – [Megan Thee Stallion](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFVakjKPMuY)
I love bayesian statistics just as much as you do. How... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7hAwnpA5JKYeQLAFG/most-likely-is-not-likely |
# Idea: build alignment dataset for very capable models
In [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/Training_language_models_to_follow_instructions_with_human_feedback.pdf), OpenAI showed that we can significantly improve the alignment of language models throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/La942YvexnvNkXsq5/idea-build-alignment-dataset-for-very-capable-models |
# The innocent self
I loved [Joe Carlsmith’s blog post on "the innocent gene"](https://handsandcities.com/2021/04/04/the-innocent-gene/). It’s a post about perspective shifts. One of them occurs when, as Dawkins suggested, we shift from thinking about organisms as agents, and start to think of them as vehicles for the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fWTkd2RSx3jcvfLCt/the-innocent-self |
# Abstractions as Redundant Information
What is it that makes the concept of “pencil” a good abstraction?
One way to frame it: there are lots of “pencils” in the world - lots of little chunks of the world which I could look at which all contain information about pencils-in-general. Many different places from which I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvEebH5jEvxnJEvBC/abstractions-as-redundant-information |
# Intro to Naturalism: Orientation
A note on how to approach this sequence:
If you were exactly like me, I would ask you to savor this sequence, not scarf it. I would ask you to approach each of these essays in an expansive, lingering, thoughtful sort of mood. I would ask you to read them a little bit at a time, perh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pPWiLGsWCtN92vLwu/intro-to-naturalism-orientation |
# Knowing
I’m going to draw some practical distinctions among types of knowledge, as an attempt to tap into your intuitions and avoid having to give some convoluted, ivory-tower definition of the word. I request that you try not to get distracted by where I’ve drawn my distinctions—the precise placement of the border... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S8kAJamj66gekjBwC/knowing |
# Whence the sexes?
There are many explanations of the evolutionary value of sex in terms of gene exchange ([I particularly like this one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SAvwF9F7rjmP6oZQj/reframing-the-evolutionary-benefit-of-sex)). But these don’t explain the evolutionary value of having *sexes*: of the differentiat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fi3AmaxNwyHwiMXx4/whence-the-sexes |
# The metaphor you want is "color blindness," not "blind spot."
It's genuinely possible that the title is all you need; I was tempted to write nothing further. Feel free to take ten seconds and see if it's already clicked. If not, read on.
* * *
When something is in your literal blind spot, it's invisible to you, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Pq9KwZhG6vejmYpo/the-metaphor-you-want-is-color-blindness-not-blind-spot |
# Some thoughts on vegetarianism and veganism
I feel pretty confused about whether I, as an effective altruist, should be vegetarian/vegan (henceforth abbreviated veg*n). I don’t think I’ve seen anyone explicitly talk about the arguments which feel most compelling to me, so I thought I’d do that here, in a low-effort ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/28wquSPmbype7dvFf/some-thoughts-on-vegetarianism-and-veganism |
# Book review: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
I recently finished Shoshana Zuboff’s book [The Age of Surveillance Capitalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Surveillance_Capitalism). It’s received glowing reviews, but left me disappointed. Zuboff spends much of the book outraged at the behaviour of big t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gWGxxHHGZixJeGXDd/book-review-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism |
# Memory decay in human brains from options pricing theory
[ACT-R theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NB9QrBa335GDijuyn/there-is-essentially-one-best-validated-theory-of-cognition) predicts that the "strength" of declarative memory in human brains decays as $\sum_i\frac 1 {\sqrt t_i}$, where $t_i$ is the amount of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pyxpvan2XapENRRRr/memory-decay-in-human-brains-from-options-pricing-theory |
# Strevens on scientific explanation
This post discusses two books by Michael Strevens: The Knowledge Machine: How Irrationality Created Modern Science and Thinking Off Your Feet: How Empirical Psychology Vindicates Armchair Philosophy. I loved the former, which tries to answer the core question in philosophy of scien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jGacdAGPoTDg9PCgP/strevens-on-scientific-explanation |
# Some limitations of reductionism about epistemology
*This post is largely based on a lightning talk I gave at a* [*Genesis*](https://www.deugenesis.com/) *event on metacognition, with some editing to clarify and expand on the arguments.*
Reductionism is the strategy of breaking things down into smaller pieces, then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cHi7x3bANecJyAhgH/some-limitations-of-reductionism-about-epistemology |
# Rock is Strong
[Everybody wants a rock](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp8znvfYbow&ab_channel=TheyMightBeGiants-Topic). It’s easy to see why. If all you want is an almost always right answer, there are places where [they almost always work](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/heuristics-that-almost-always-work).
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7AYTWzoYifrNsJ9nh/rock-is-strong |
# Paper is True
Postscript to: [Rock is Strong](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/rock-is-strong)
Always choosing Rock, broadly construed, is freerolling on the efforts of others and/or you are lying. You are in at some important sense defecting. The problem of an information cascade is real. You are not contributing new... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EW5DTxCLrFRA5yPJt/paper-is-true |
# Goal-directedness: exploring explanations
*This is the first post in my Effective-Altruism-funded project aiming to deconfuse goal-directedness. Comments are welcomed. All opinions expressed are my own, and do not reflect the attitudes of any member of the body sponsoring me.*
In my [preliminary post](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJPRC3cgtxSXpZEQZ/goal-directedness-exploring-explanations |
# Framing Practicum: General Factor
Credit to [johnswentworth](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth) for being the general factor[^jo6d3pyvh58] of framing practicums.
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what general factors are, how to recogniz... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x6AB4i6xLBgTkeHas/framing-practicum-general-factor-2 |
# Observations about writing and commenting on the internet
I’m not famous or successful, so why should you care what I think? Well, I have some observations about the dynamics of writing on the internet that I think my (even more non-famous and non-successful) self would have benefited from when I started.
Human exp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8mjoPYdeESB7ZcZvB/observations-about-writing-and-commenting-on-the-internet |
# What Does The Natural Abstraction Framework Say About ELK?
*Credit to Adam Shimi, Alex Flint, and Rob Miles for discussions, counterexamples, and general input to the ideas here.*
Quick recap for anyone who didn’t read the hundred-page [Eliciting Latent Knowledge document](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HuqwRug3v6z3gEgKK/what-does-the-natural-abstraction-framework-say-about-elk |
# Some Hacky ELK Ideas
*Credit to Adam Shimi, Alex Flint, and Rob Miles for discussions, counterexamples, and general input to the ideas here.*
Quick recap for anyone who didn’t read the hundred-page [Eliciting Latent Knowledge document](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals):
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3gAKoaziTXmvHusRv/some-hacky-elk-ideas |
# Is ELK enough? Diamond, Matrix and Child AI
Introduction
============
If we could solve [ELK](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge), would we always know where the diamond is at the end of a plan? That is, if we could get the direct translato... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XjDcwtgkHGWYA7stn/is-elk-enough-diamond-matrix-and-child-ai |
# Epsilon is not a probability, it's a cop-out
A lot of people, after learning on this site that 0 and 1 are "not probabilities," (they are, just ask a mathematician, but they are not useful for Bayesian updating) quickly switch to using "epsilon" or "one minus epsilon" instead, meaning "a reeeeaaaalllly tiny number, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D3pqLwPm5J6uZMzdW/epsilon-is-not-a-probability-it-s-a-cop-out |
# Becoming Stronger as Epistemologist: Introduction
Introduction: a new hope
========================
If you’ve read [anything](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/FQqcejhNWGG8vHDch/on-solving-problems-before-they-appear-the-weird) [I](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/GSBCw94DsxLgDat6r/interpreting-yudkowsky-on-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction |
# Defending One-Dimensional Ethics
[Previously](https://www.cold-takes.com/future-proof-ethics/), I introduced the idea of "future-proof ethics." Ethics based on "common sense" and the conventions of the time has a horrible track record; future-proof ethics is about trying to make ethical decisions that we can remain ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ALyHFoJtFrhpDkLms/defending-one-dimensional-ethics |
# How harmful are improvements in AI? + Poll
This post was written by Marius Hobbhahn and Tilman Räuker.
Disclaimer: We have previously posted [this piece](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LqWPSNRu2t46fv6hK/ai-acceleration-from-a-safety-perspective-trade-offs-and) on the EA forum. We now post it here because... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uABbabv5WPZmwzCmP/how-harmful-are-improvements-in-ai-poll |
# The Territory
I don’t know if you’ve ever had the experience of hiking in the wilderness with a map and compass but no cell service. I recommend it, if you haven’t.
I somehow did not quite all-the-wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bRcsFM6jm272ELyx8/the-territory |
# Bazant: An alternate covid calculator
Most of what I see people use [Microcovid.org](http://microcovid.org) for now is estimating risk for large gatherings, which it was not designed for and thus doesn’t handle very well. I spent a few hours going through every covid calculator I could find and [this calculator from... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JrSAmXoGMD8iabCMt/bazant-an-alternate-covid-calculator |
# The Three Little Piggies of Rationality
There are three related logical fallacies, which I call the Three Little Piggies of rationality. A strawman is when you argue against a simplified view that your opponent doesn’t have. A steelman is when you argue against a more sophisticated view than the one your opponent ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FcEjFtHwjT42WpHuq/the-three-little-piggies-of-rationality |
# REPL's: a type signature for agents
Read-eval-print loops are used to interact with programming languages as well as in the shell to interact with your computer. I claim that they are a reasonable starting point for reasoning about agents. This is a framing that all but wrote my ELK proposal for me, and has been pay... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kN2cFPaLQhExEzgeZ/repl-s-a-type-signature-for-agents |
# Why Doesn’t Healthcare Improve Health?
It’s almost a non-sequitur to ask whether or not a giant industry, with a well-defined goal, churning double-digits of GDP, actually works.
If pressured into an experiment we could easily design one that shows airplanes deliver people to destinations over 3000km away faster th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ntRZqcL9Xopv5NwiC/why-doesn-t-healthcare-improve-health |
#
[Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 4. The “short-term predictor”
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
4.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y3bkJ59j4dciiLYyw/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-4-the-short-term-predictor |
# Compute Trends Across Three eras of Machine Learning
[https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924](https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924)
What do you need to develop advanced Machine Learning systems? Leading companies don’t know. But they are very interested in figuring it out. They dream of replacing all these pesky workers with... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XKtybmbjhC6mXDm5z/compute-trends-across-three-eras-of-machine-learning |
# Convoy Continued
Previously: [Convoy](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/02/04/convoy/), also [coverage from weekly post](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/02/10/covid-2-10-22-happy-birthday/).
We continue to have ourselves a convoy, as well as attempts at similar additional convoys elsewhere.
We also have some rat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GgAntXgCmDG3ZPTca/convoy-continued |
# [Link] Eric Schmidt's new AI2050 Fund
*This is a linkpost for* [*https://www.schmidtfutures.com/schmidt-futures-launches-ai2050-to-protect-our-human-future-in-the-age-of-artificial-intelligence/*](https://www.schmidtfutures.com/schmidt-futures-launches-ai2050-to-protect-our-human-future-in-the-age-of-artificial-inte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9EgbXcCb6KKLsryB/link-eric-schmidt-s-new-ai2050-fund |
# An analogy as the midwife of thermodynamics
*Epistemic status:* [*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction)
Introduction: Starting point
============================
One of the aspects of deconfusion that consistently trip people up is “where ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MGQxXSwcTmAxzEsrG/an-analogy-as-the-midwife-of-thermodynamics |
# Twitter thread on postrationalists
I wrote the following as a [thread](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492242777157079048.html) on twitter. Kaj Sotala asked me to share it on LessWrong as well, so I have reproduced it here with minimal editing.
(If you are interested in my twitter content, but don't use twi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/evYFijNMdjfbPaCho/twitter-thread-on-postrationalists |
# Covid 2/17/22: Coasting Downwards
As cases and hospitalizations continue to drop, restrictions are slowly being lifted and life is returning to its new normal. Masks are still sticking around in many places where they no longer make physical sense, and will doubtless continue to do this for some time, with the most ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FT4jTcgGSkx3e36bz/covid-2-17-22-coasting-downwards |
# Interlude: On Realness
I have a final line of thought on “the territory” that’s a lot less tidy than what you’ve read so far. Everything else in this sequence is a distillation, an attempt to communicate large principles that I’ve brought into sharp focus over time. In this interlude, I’ll be doing something differe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wY7vKT2PiNyG8w2Ep/interlude-on-realness |
# A scheme for sampling durable goods first-hand before making a purchase
A problem when trying to purchase some classes of products (like pillows, computer mice, and sleep masks) is that it is difficult to sample lots of them first-hand before making a purchase. This forces one to rely on product reviews or to settle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dQqjX9CHfg7GcRcFm/a-scheme-for-sampling-durable-goods-first-hand-before-making |
# Implications of automated ontology identification
$$
\newcommand{\Q}{Q}
\newcommand{\X}{X}
\newcommand{\Y}{Y}
\newcommand{\Z}{Z}
\newcommand{\E}{E}
\newcommand{\EPrime}{E’}
\newcommand{\Ezero}{E_0}
\newcommand{\B}{B}
\newcommand{\BPrime}{B’}
\newcommand{\C}{c}
\newcommand{\Cone}{c_1}
\newcommand{\Ctwo}{c_2}
\newcomm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LRgM9cuLNPbsjwEdN/implications-of-automated-ontology-identification |
# Monks of Magnitude
Sometimes I encounter a concept and it immediately embeds itself [in my culture](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4EGYhyyJXSnE7xJ9H/in-my-culture?commentId=rjRLaBF4cQoSju2Sw), such that it feels like I always knew it. This is a short description of such a concept; it was a near-perfect match for a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pHHaNkG8xDcaq5DJF/monks-of-magnitude |
# Simulation arguments
> *“If Nature herself proves artificial, where will you go to seek wildness? Where is the real out-of-doors?”*
>
> *– C.S. Lewis*
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/02/18/simulation-arguments/). Content warning: weird)
Summary:
* This post examines “simul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X7vdn4ANkdNwoSyxB/simulation-arguments |
# Why you are psychologically screwed up
Linkpost for [https://allegedwisdom.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-you-are-psychologically-screwed-up.html](https://allegedwisdom.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-you-are-psychologically-screwed-up.html)
*Epistemic status: deliberately written in simplified tale/myth mode. I could go off on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AnyQqSse6iGddntqP/why-you-are-psychologically-screwed-up |
# Non-Fungible Costs
You and your partner live in a cozy one-bedroom in the city. You enjoy being in the city bustle. It's got a quiet, sunny, plant-filled patio; and is close to all your favourite bars and restaurants.
But you've just had a baby. Work is a 40 minute commute. You can afford the current rent, but it f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aLMtSzrxcuMcqg6nt/non-fungible-costs |
# Abundance and scarcity; working forwards and working backwards
_Epistemic status: I was bet $100 that I would not write this. Processing drastic opportunities, this is an extremely decision-relevant post and if my friends are right millions of dollars are lying in it_.
_Managing expectations: I am not writing a gui... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7mefcXBqsTE3MkQnp/abundance-and-scarcity-working-forwards-and-working |
# Scott Alexander Visit and Mixer
**NOTE:** Location has been updated as of 5 pm CT, February 19.
The Austin LW/SSC group will be hosting Scott Alexander of AstralCodexTen ([announcement](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-next-sunday) on his blog) on Sunday, February 27th. See event details for the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/95LYeapL9ZiRgp689/scott-alexander-visit-and-mixer |
# Misc thematic links
These are mostly links that contain some sort of interesting update or different perspective on stuff I've covered in past pieces.
Misc
----
I recently wrote a [book non-review](https://www.cold-takes.com/book-non-review-the-dawn-of-everything/) explaining why I haven’t read _The Dawn of Everyt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kc7nb35kDdyC6shvu/misc-thematic-links |
# Encouragement to Instill Confidence?
[I found this interesting](https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1484881309394780167) and decided to overthink it.
 is a camp intended for really bright high school students to get together and become more “agenty.” It was originally spun up by people around CFAR to get math students interested in AI alignment and EA, though the foc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AFMuRoXYzWanCgLAc/sparc-applications-are-now-live |
# Observation
Imagine that you meet someone you’re attracted to at a party. At one point, they smile at you, and you notice. You’re pretty sure they like you, but you really want to know whether they *li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6EyrTDGgfsk8TCbMf/observation |
# What The Foucault
*Epistemic status: *[*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction)
**Student:** Rah, it’s so frustrating!
**Master:** What is?
**Student:** I keep stumbling back into Foucault, and I’m never able to decide if I should discard h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Nk3FW28FahAZpiMv/what-the-foucault |
# 12 interesting things I learned studying the discovery of nature's laws
I've been thinking about out whether I can discover laws of agency and wield them to prevent AI ruin (perhaps by building an AGI myself in a different paradigm than machine learning).
So far I’ve looked into the history of the discovery of phys... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uiyWHaTrz3ML7JqDX/12-interesting-things-i-learned-studying-the-discovery-of |
# Microcovid Becoming Less Useful
I want to start by saying how much I appreciate what the volunteers behind [Microcovid](https://microcovid.org) have done. Providing a risk calculator has been really helpful to a lot of people. There's also been a lot of value in running a centralized estimate of the impact of differ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z2NXui6jB4GETTzbd/microcovid-becoming-less-useful |
# How Many (Smallish) Organic Compounds Are There?
Introduction
------------
Here's a question I've been pondering recently: how many organic compounds are there? There are multiple ways to interpret the question, each of which leads to consideration of a different potential set of compounds, and each of which is inf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yvAprQnzGECvmni3L/how-many-smallish-organic-compounds-are-there |
# Books Worthy of Integration
### Here is the list of recommend books for someone interested in enhancing their understanding of the world.
This is a post from Substack which can be found [here](https://roven.substack.com/p/books-worthy-of-integration).
Not long ago, I would read roughly one book every couple of ye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XTnzZkAHenomutQhq/books-worthy-of-integration |
# Russian x-risks newsletter winter 21-22, war risks update.
*TL;DR: Ukraine will eventually either get nuclear protection by NATO or its own nukes, which in both cases will likely lead to the nuclear war with Russia. Knowing this,* *Putin may want to attack first or credibly threaten to do so.*
The whole world is l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGv7W93gtFddbKSwG/russian-x-risks-newsletter-winter-21-22-war-risks-update |
# Review: G.E.M. Anscombe’s “Modern Moral Philosophy”
Several years ago [I gushed and gushed](https://sniggle.net/TPL/index5.php?entry=13Dec09) about Alasdair MacIntyre’s book [*After Virtue*](https://bookshop.org/a/702/9780268035044). I’m not taking any of that gushing back today—I still think it was an exciting argu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XC5xBQNTHrxz8XH4A/review-g-e-m-anscombe-s-modern-moral-philosophy |
# Prizes for the 2020 Review
The third annual review is complete. We spent two months [nominating](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M9kDqF2fn3WH44nrv/the-2020-review-preliminary-voting), [reviewing](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQfyDLkrKvufaZTwt/2020-review-the-discussion-phase), and [voting](https://www.lesswrong.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y2qydZosrttzgm65H/prizes-for-the-2020-review-1 |
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