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# Some reasons why a predictor wants to be a consequentialist
*Status: working notes*
Here's an exercise I've found very useful for intuition-building around alignment:
1. Propose a solution to the alignment problem.
2. Dig into the details until you understand why the proposal fails.
3. If there is an obvious fix, g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DQBpu6LweoXyxLSsf/some-reasons-why-a-predictor-wants-to-be-a-consequentialist |
# Feature proposal: Shortform reset
Shortform comments are displayed separately on the main page, but technically they are implemented as top-level comments of an automatically created article that has a title "*{userName}*'s Shortform" and an empty body. You can find this article either directly in the list of user's... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nd6F2ZYLkejCyK8ez/feature-proposal-shortform-reset |
# Convince me that humanity *isn’t* doomed by AGI
Earlier this week, I asked the LessWrong community to [convince me that humanity is as doomed by AGI as Yudkowsky et al., seems to believe](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dSaScvukmCRqey8ug/convince-me-that-humanity-is-as-doomed-by-agi-as-yudkowsky). The responses were... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wvjxmcn3RAoxhf6Jk/convince-me-that-humanity-isn-t-doomed-by-agi |
# Feature proposal: Close comment as resolved
There is an article. It contains a typo. Someone mentions it in a comment. The comment is upvoted as helpful. Author fixes the typo. Now there is a no-longer-useful comment in the discussion, sometimes with replies (the author saying "thanks, fixed", etc.). Sometimes it si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/veFAXu6ec5Fn9dwYk/feature-proposal-close-comment-as-resolved |
# Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon
I go to Amazon, search for “air conditioner”, and sort by average customer rating. There’s a couple pages of evaporative coolers (not what I’m looking for), one used window unit (?), and then [this](http://amazon.com/Pro-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMAK6eeMCH3JGuqeZ/everything-i-need-to-know-about-takeoff-speeds-i-learned |
# Constraining narrow AI in a corporate setting
I have a question that is extremely practical.
My company is working with AI that is frankly not all that capable. A key example includes text classification that humans do, but that would let us avoid the expense of having a human do it. Off-the-shelf machine learning ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jEjhTGTuA2hcqQGEv/constraining-narrow-ai-in-a-corporate-setting |
# Contra Alexander on the Virtue of Silence
At my local LW meetup, we recently discussed Scott Alexander's post on [the Virtue of Silence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/XsMTxdQ6fprAQMoKi/p/2brqzQWfmNx5Agdrx). For reasons I could not immediately discern, I intuitively disagreed with his argument. The following is my atte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fPhgcAcmvFBwdRXJr/contra-alexander-on-the-virtue-of-silence |
# Clem's Memo
*Declassified document sourced from Cabinets and The Bomb by Peter Hennessy; reproduced verbatim.*
**TOP SECRET**
**GEN 75/1**
**28th August, 1945**
**THE ATOMIC BOMB**
**Memorandum by the Prime Minister**[^sp4hrhhni3]
1. A decision on major policy with regard to the atomic bomb is imperative. Unt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mz6DH2tGvZGj6HBhe/clem-s-memo |
# Introducing Mnosis
**Introducing Mnosis**
----------------------
The Guild of the ROSE is proud to announce the beta launch of a new self-improvement tool: Mnosis.
> *mne-*, root. **Mind, memory.**
>
> *Gnosis.* **Knowledge.**
What is Mnosis? In a nutshell -- a magic deck of flashcards. Think of it as Anki for p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xbqJwfyyZPD2XughM/introducing-mnosis |
# Pop Culture Alignment Research and Taxes
*TL;DR: A quick recap of all the AI progress published recently, a shortcoming of the alignment tax definition, and a dynamical systems model of AI progress.*
*Previously in this series:* [*Cognitive Biases in Large Language Models*](https://universalprior.substack.com/p/cog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YFckXwZg8Zcaib5ff/pop-culture-alignment-research-and-taxes |
# Consciousness: A Compression-Based Approach
*TL;DR: To your brain, "explaining things" means compressing them in terms of some smaller/already-known other thing. So the seemingly inexplicable nature of consciousness/qualia arises because qualia are primitive data elements which can't be compressed. The feeling of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ETPbHbQZ94Ca2oLo5/consciousness-a-compression-based-approach |
# Fiction: My alternate earth story.
Stories of the alternate worlds people are from are getting pretty popular here.
The first deviation between this reality and the world I am from, is as far as I can tell, early robots in science fiction. Or rather my worlds total lack thereof. I don't know if Isaac Asimov never... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kEu5y2qjkRiGKCa9/fiction-my-alternate-earth-story |
# Alignment and Deep Learning
Between the recent AI breakthroughs and Eliezer's open admission of how bleak the chances of alignment are, everyone is speaking up and contributing what they can. It seems to me that there's a route that very few people are talking about that stands a better chance of successful alignme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KvHCboMeNBEcZrdaw/alignment-and-deep-learning |
# What is causality to an evidential decision theorist?
(_Subsumed by: [Timeless Decision Theory](https://intelligence.org/files/TDT.pdf), [EDT=CDT](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/fgHSwxFitysGKHH56))_
People sometimes object to evidential decision theory by saying: “It seems like the distinction between correlation and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2LisesnhDvRkqEMya/what-is-causality-to-an-evidential-decision-theorist |
# Org announcement: [AC]RC
It seems that certain thermodynamic phenomena are highly relevant to alignment. From Paul Christiano's rebuttal to a [recent seminal paper](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMAK6eeMCH3JGuqeZ/everything-i-need-to-know-about-takeoff-speeds-i-learned):
Maybe this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5ozs3ttc3FctnDYp/are-deference-games-a-thing |
# Fundamental Uncertainty: Chapter 2 - Why do words have meaning?
*N.B. This is a chapter in a book about truth and knowledge. It is the first draft. I have since revised it and replaced this old version with* [*a new major revision*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HMs2yT9D6LjYR5jQT/p/nxkqiMDn7PcptprMm)*. You should read... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kq9nq5hvPHanrmdNZ/fundamental-uncertainty-chapter-2-why-do-words-have-meaning |
# Limitations of Laplace’s rule of succession
## Summary
Laplace’s rule typically overestimates the chance of unprecedented events occurring; this is because it assigns 50% to the event occurring in the first timestep. We can do better by using a rule that assigns a lower probability to the event occurring in the tim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tg5pQCjpefFiqaKjw/limitations-of-laplace-s-rule-of-succession |
# What's the Relationship Between "Human Values" and the Brain's Reward System?
In classic, non-mesa-optimized AGI risk scenarios, an AI is typically imagined whose reward function is directly related to the optimization pressure that it exerts on the world: e.g. the paperclip maximizer. However, it seems that *human*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Di4bFP7kjoLEQLpQd/what-s-the-relationship-between-human-values-and-the-brain-s |
# [Closed] Hiring a mathematician to work on the learning-theoretic AI alignment agenda
**UPDATE:** The position is now closed. My thanks to everyone who applied, and also to those who spread the word.
The Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience (ALTER) is a new charity for promoting longtermist[^1] causes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/it5odhMKY6xYLrFZD/closed-hiring-a-mathematician-to-work-on-the-learning |
# Concept extrapolation: key posts
Concept extrapolation is the skill of taking a concept, a feature, or a goal that is defined in a narrow training situation... and extrapolating it safely to a more general situation. This more general situation might be very extreme, and the original concept might not make much sens... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPWQzRRQbjtgYn7rE/concept-extrapolation-key-posts |
# The internet makes it easier to cooperate, that’s the problem
The internet makes it easier to cooperate. That is a simple way to explain what is happening to our society and politics.
Internet technology has progressed by adding layers. In the 1970s, the Internet itself let different computers anywhere in the world... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9vkv4NhAFkGjzqMkx/the-internet-makes-it-easier-to-cooperate-that-s-the-problem |
# Three useful types of akrasia
What I will attempt in this post is to define 3 common types of [akrasia](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/akrasia) as I experience them, in the hope to generate more useful vocabulary for this very important subject.
This post is greatly inspired by: [Do a cost-benefit analysis of your t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfk93e3qvgT5mrZHr/three-useful-types-of-akrasia |
# Fixed points and free will
In his [most recent appearance](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/bryan-caplan-parenting-workers-betting/) on the 80,000 Hours podcast, [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) gave the following argument in favor of libertarian free will:
> One that I’m very tempt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kh2ohCms4CuC7RqMY/fixed-points-and-free-will |
# The Scale Problem in AI
Suppose we are making an AI; for familiarity's sake, let's say that it is a model-based agent. In that case, we might need to train the model with data from the real world to make it accurate.
Usually the way this proceeds is that we have access to some source of data, e.g. a deployment of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KEZ7tbvsjQKTesN9f/the-scale-problem-in-ai |
# Deceptive Agents are a Good Way to Do Things
*A brief, accessible summary of the inner alignment problem.*
The safety problem with powerful ML training algorithms is that **deceptive agents are a good way to do things.** Meaning, when we search over a big space of models until we find a model that performs well on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MxXtaChisukWL5Ehz/deceptive-agents-are-a-good-way-to-do-things |
# “Pivotal Act” Intentions: Negative Consequences and Fallacious Arguments
**tl;dr:** I know a bunch of EA/rationality-adjacent people who argue — sometimes jokingly and sometimes seriously — that the only way or best way to reduce existential risk is to enable an “aligned” AGI development team to forcibly (even if no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jo89KvfAs9z7owoZp/pivotal-act-intentions-negative-consequences-and-fallacious |
# Why No *Interesting* Unaligned Singularity?
*Putting two matching ideas I've encountered together.*
The Question:
=============
> [agentofuser:](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy?commentId=rP9db8onJikg7C2L9)
>
> **Considering all humans dead, do you s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/khupuW9cPrcLYkJww/why-no-interesting-unaligned-singularity |
# A very quick analogy regarding "opinions"
Say I were to tell you "I have a large treasure chest full of gold doubloons" and you were to say "Really, let me see it?", so we went to my house to look at my chest.
We enter my living room, where there is a fireplace with a mantel. I say "Look, it's right on top of the m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KssdYxGsM35XEN2ea/a-very-quick-analogy-regarding-opinions |
# GPT-3 and concept extrapolation
At the latest EAG in London, I was challenged to explain what concept extrapolation would mean for GPT-3.
My first thought was the example from [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QppXf4yfcG8JAKhnw/more-gpt-3-and-symbol-grounding#Undead_repetitive_workers_on_the_weekend), whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qyyo2efuwWkyR62fB/gpt-3-and-concept-extrapolation |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 12. Two paths forward: “Controlled AGI” and “Social-instinct AGI”
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
12.1 Post summary / Table of contents
=====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sd4QvG4ZyjynZuHGt/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-12-two-paths-forward |
# Judge Overturns Transportation Mask Mandate
A federal judge has overturned the transportation mask mandate, saying the CDC overstepped its authority. The Biden administration is adhering to this ruling. [It intends to appeal](https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1516640206954242050), but is not being loud about that.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yG7aMJFgShqffnFZF/judge-overturns-transportation-mask-mandate |
# If everything is genetic, then nothing is genetic - Understanding the phenotypic null hypothesis
[*This is a cross-post from my Substack*](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/if-everything-is-genetic-then-nothing?s=w)*.*
The first [law of behavioral genetics](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242446877_Three_L... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Koujx2SJZDG5W5kb/if-everything-is-genetic-then-nothing-is-genetic |
# How to place a bet on the end of the world
*Edit: This post is about a practical method for structuring a bet. It's not on how to extract information about people's true confidence levels based on the betting odds.*
Bryan Caplan and Eliezer Yudkowsky figured out a way to place a meaningful bet on the end of the wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZRvSeFysdx7DRuxQD/how-to-place-a-bet-on-the-end-of-the-world |
# Is growth linear, not exponential?
This week Thomas Philippon posted [a paper](http://www.nber.org/papers/w29950) ([PDF](http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~tphilipp/papers/AddGrowth_macro.pdf)) claiming that TFP growth is linear, not exponential. What does this mean, and what can we conclude from this?
A few people asked ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wRskkciTpkMiNy9Ev/is-growth-linear-not-exponential |
# When is positive self-talk not worth it due to self-delusion?
[This](https://www.ted.com/talks/shawn_achor_the_happy_secret_to_better_work?language=en) is a pretty funny and quick TED talk about positive psychology that I liked, though I wish it addressed the possibility and harms of self-delusion more.
Questions I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koZomGtAf9mivqFRT/when-is-positive-self-talk-not-worth-it-due-to-self-delusion |
# For every choice of AGI difficulty, conditioning on gradual take-off implies shorter timelines.
Alternate titles: Deconfusing Take-off; Taboo “Fast” and “Slow” Take-off.
This post has two main purposes:
1. To suggest that we taboo the terms "fast" and "slow" take-off in favour of **"gradual"** and **"sudden"** t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AiaAq5XeECg7MpTL7/for-every-choice-of-agi-difficulty-conditioning-on-gradual |
# When Can You Use a Travel Adapter?
We're currently in the UK, where outlets look like:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/uk-power-outlet-big.jpg)
Since we're from the US, none of the gear we have will plug into these sockets. What if we use a travel adapter?
[. I will also be covering the situation in China in its own post.
No one asked this time around, but a friend r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LJx7G3uuCp2mm9FaE/covid-4-21-22-variants-working-overtime |
# Reflections on My Own Missing Mood
Life on Earth is incredibly precious. Even a tiny p(DOOM) must be taken very seriously. Since we cannot predict the future, and since in a debate we should be epistemically humble, we should give our interlocutors the benefit of the doubt. Therefore, even if on my inside view p(DOO... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pqz9NEDxHovq5xrBN/reflections-on-my-own-missing-mood |
# Are smart people's personal experiences biased against general intelligence?
*TL;DR: Collider between* g *and valued traits in anecdotal experiences.*
IQ tests measure the *g* factor - that is, mental traits and skills that are useful across a wide variety of cognitive tasks. *g* appears to be important for a numbe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wM4bcDxEh75NDkhjo/are-smart-people-s-personal-experiences-biased-against |
# I Caught Covid And All I Got Was This Lousy Ambiguous Data
Tl;dr I tried to run an n of 1 study on niacin and covid, and it failed to confirm or disprove anything at all.
You may remember that back in October I published a [very long post](https://acesounderglass.com/2021/10/08/niacin-as-a-treatment-for-covid-proba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EihMrCtzAfHL9dRdT/i-caught-covid-and-all-i-got-was-this-lousy-ambiguous-data |
# Preregistration: Air Conditioner Test
*Warning: None of the participants in the Great Air Conditioner Debate Of 2022 have endorsed my summaries of their positions in this post. Including me.*
Background
----------
In [Everything I Need To Know About Takeoff Speeds I Learned From Air Conditioner Ratings On Amazon](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AMmqk74zWmvP8tXEJ/preregistration-air-conditioner-test |
# What are the numbers in mind for the super-short AGI timelines so many long-termists are alarmed about?
*I also asked* [*this question on the Effective Altruism Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RSqKQXwmrK6mFGB32/what-are-the-numbers-in-mind-for-the-super-short-agi)*. One* [*informative answer*](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qDoqwGs4Dhj27sbTj/what-are-the-numbers-in-mind-for-the-super-short-agi |
# Early 2022 Paper Round-up (Part 2)
[Last week](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/early-2022-paper-round-up/), I talked about six recent papers from our group, and discussed the first two in detail. This week, I'll discuss the remaining four. They fall into two categories: robustness, and science of ML.
Robustness
---... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ixoE35vRxcuprnqnp/early-2022-paper-round-up-part-2 |
# Instrumental Convergence To Offer Hope?
*TL;DR Could a superintelligence be motivated to preserve lower life forms because it fears an even greater superintelligence? This 'motivation' takes the form of something like timeless decision theory.*
This is a thought experiment about a superintelligent AI. No doubt the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PfbE2nTvRJjtzysLM/instrumental-convergence-to-offer-hope |
# Infra-Miscellanea
This post is a writeup of some miscellaneous results that don't cohere into a single big post, but might possibly be of interest.
Also, in mostly unrelated news, this stuff can be a bit tricky to learn for the first time. So, I was thinking of assembling an infra version of the [fixpoint exercise ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SYeuMzspmwoQABWdw/infra-miscellanea |
# Infra-Topology
$\newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon}$
$\newcommand{\la}{\lambda}$
$\newcommand{\x}{\times}$
Attention conservation notice: This post has [Less Basic Inframeasure Theory](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/idP5E5XhJGh9T5Yq9/less-basic-inframeasure-theory) as a prerequisite and goes pretty heavy on the topo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PrYbdKcj89f8swCkr/infra-topology |
# AI Will Multiply
AI alignment work typically treats AI’s as single entities. While I agree that this is a good approximation, I think they will be better described as a highly coordinated population of agents. Rather than simply grow in size and acquire more resources, AI’s will find it in their best interests to sp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m9xgPo4Eec6jLKheN/ai-will-multiply |
# Will/Has the Russia-Ukraine war been a tipping point for the shift from oil energy?
What do people think? The process and transition away from oil energy has been a long road. It seems to have been a slow path with lots of hurdles in the way. But now it seems there is another impetus in that direction that may tip t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrKXCH9hAu2qTharG/will-has-the-russia-ukraine-war-been-a-tipping-point-for-the |
# All I Know is that I Know Nothing
I publish words on the Internet. Sometimes readers write me emails.
The Highschooler
================
A highschooler contacted me. He shook with nervous energy because he was in the presence of Great Blogger Lsusr.
"O' Great Blogger Lsusr," said the highschooler, "My teachers kno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQDEeB8c8w6dez3Gm/all-i-know-is-that-i-know-nothing |
# (When) do high-dimensional spaces have linear paths down to local minima?
When training (to convergence) using gradient descent in high dimensions, it's common for there to be monotonically decreasing loss on the linear path between the initialization weights and the local minimum found, even if the actual path foll... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9RjumLrFwgAcpA4p/when-do-high-dimensional-spaces-have-linear-paths-down-to |
# Should I buy roofies from the darknet?
*Crossposted from* [*Telescopic Turnip*](https://malmesbury.substack.com/p/psychology-on-roofies)*.*
As I am writing, there is a tiny angel-version of myself suspended in mid-air over my left shoulder. His comforting voice is telling me to live a normal life and pursue happine... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Axt6RDfM88DKrABpF/should-i-buy-roofies-from-the-darknet |
# China Covid #2
What is happening in China?
That is by far the most important Covid-related question right now. The future of Covid elsewhere might be frustrating, but what is happening in China is potentially a _much_ bigger deal, from disrupting supply chains all the way up to potential loss of the Mandate of Heav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fgSwfAedhDDwoZjdM/china-covid-2 |
# Why “progress studies” is interdisciplinary
When Cowen & Collison [coined the term “progress studies”](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/we-need-new-science-progress/594946/) in 2019, some questioned why such a concept was needed, given the existence of economics, history, etc. They argued that an ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qMDBmjMzoYzKBFhTN/why-progress-studies-is-interdisciplinary |
# Replicating and extending the grabby aliens model
*Crossposted to the* [*Effective Altruism Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7bc54mWtc7BrpZY9e/replicating-and-extending-the-grabby-aliens-model)
Summary
=======
This report is the most comprehensive model to date of aliens and the Fermi paradox. In ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iwWjBH2rBF7ExXeEG/replicating-and-extending-the-grabby-aliens-model |
# PD-alikes in two dimensions
Some time after writing [Classifying games like the prisoner's dilemma](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KwbJFexa4MEdhJbs4/classifying-games-like-the-prisoner-s-dilemma), I read a paper (I forget which) which pointed out that these games can be specified with just two numbers.
Recall that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dnP5Rf9GyfbBGoe4J/pd-alikes-in-two-dimensions |
# Long Review: Economic Hierarchies
*Naked and Afraid* from the Discovery Channel didn’t live up to its potential. To be fair, a handful of scraggly naked people trying to make it in Kenya’s wilderness made for interesting television, as they scratched themselves, got infections, and looked pretty uncomfortable. But t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dz47JYcgwfFmQm5fq/long-review-economic-hierarchies |
# Skilling-up in ML Engineering for Alignment: request for comments
TLDR: Please fill out [this survey](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc1rNIblbIVtxzla_JMND8vPKgsHubTKks_VmSY3wYdN5h-eQ/viewform) if you are a potential or established ML Engineer, to let us know your thoughts and preferences on the best wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f7A7qiJNWCxbWHgot/skilling-up-in-ml-engineering-for-alignment-request-for |
# Report likelihood ratios
A few weeks ago, Thomas Philippon [released a paper](http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~tphilipp/papers/AddGrowth_macro.pdf) in which he argued that total factor productivity growth was piecewise linear rather than exponential. The paper received attention both on social media and [on LessWrong its... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yWCszqSCzoWTZCacN/report-likelihood-ratios |
# [ASoT] Consequentialist models as a superset of mesaoptimizers
**TL;DR**: I split out mesaoptimizers (models which do explicit search internally) from the superset of consequentialist models (which accomplish goals in the world, and may or may not use search internally). This resolves a bit of confusion I had about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rhbac7CfRodMrs77F/asot-consequentialist-models-as-a-superset-of-mesaoptimizers |
# Progress Report 5: tying it together
Previous: [Progress report 4](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rp77GjLqjdpdPSk3e/progress-report-4-logit-lens-redux)
First, an example of what not to do if you want humanity to survive: make an even foom-ier and less interpretable version of neural nets. On the spectrum of good i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E2ZgRTkfmQgSfxXpz/progress-report-5-tying-it-together |
# Ineffective Altruism
There are many things I can put my time toward.
- I started [a company](https://immutouch.com/) that provides a low-cost tool that helps people who pull their hair out.
- I volunteer as a coach for my neighborhood highschool Robotics Club.
- I frequently blog about rationality.
- I sometimes blo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ai28GyiB3GpGGoaWs/ineffective-altruism |
# Re: So You Want to Be a Dharma Teacher
> When I first started getting into Zen there was a brief period when I thought I wanted to be a dharma teacher. I remember telling my first teacher, Tim, I wanted to be a dharma teacher and he just gave me a look. It’s hard to describe that look, but I remember how it felt. An... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Lagh2xutJHLT6M9C/re-so-you-want-to-be-a-dharma-teacher |
# Rationality Dojo
Suppose you asked me to start a rationality dojo. What would I do?
I would tell you "Do not start a rationality dojo. It is a bad idea." A science camp, a programming camp, a math camp, a rhetoric camp and a Bible camp are all much better ideas.
But what if you offered me a lot of money? Then I wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aX4NqcsRiDnKu52k6/rationality-dojo-1 |
# Calling for Student Submissions: AI Safety Distillation Contest
At EA UC [Berkeley](https://eaberkeley.com/), we’re launching an ongoing series of contests called the Artificial Intelligence Misalignment Solutions (AIMS) series. This second contest, the [Distillation Contest](https://eaberkeley.com/aims-distillation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C5e7ghGmFFwdqaFsT/calling-for-student-submissions-ai-safety-distillation-1 |
# Slack gives you space to notice/reflect on subtle things
Followup to "[My slack budget: 3 surprise problems per week](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WuyNHrDXcGFgkZpBy/my-slack-budget-3-surprise-problems-per-week)"
Previously, I thought the reasons to preserve slack in your life (or in your organization) were to:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fwSDKTZvraSdmwFsj/slack-gives-you-space-to-notice-reflect-on-subtle-things |
# What Is a Major Chord?
In the discussion on my [minimal chords post](https://www.jefftk.com/p/what-chords-do-you-need), someone [commented](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31111169):
> I have no idea what any of this means (what is a chord? what is a major chord? what is a note? what is a first/fourth/fifth no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y2ybwt5WgBsrWQPxM/what-is-a-major-chord |
# On Tables and Happiness
*I'm writing this post because I want to have a succinct and shareable piece summarising my non-rigorous views on happiness.*
During the past decade, I entered adulthood. With this transition came more choices, as my parents and teachers no longer constrained me. More choices came with more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fHrvN2urbEQN8qq6S/on-tables-and-happiness |
# Key questions about artificial sentience: an opinionated guide
*[crossposted at [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gFoWdiGYtXrhmBusH/key-questions-about-artificial-sentience-an-opinionated) and [Experience Machines](https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/key-questions-about-artificial-sentience)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cwDbYmnSdoobdcJnx/key-questions-about-artificial-sentience-an-opinionated |
# Ukraine Post #11: Longer Term Predictions
The pace of these Ukraine posts is slowing down, and will probably slow further if things go as I expect them to go. Given how much slower things are going, this will likely be my last update on Ukraine for a few weeks.
I did want to record how various things are tracking f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w4SvBqgLFprRRY8YR/ukraine-post-11-longer-term-predictions |
# Intuitions about solving hard problems
**Solving hard scientific problems usually requires compelling insights**
Here’s a heuristic which plays an important role in my reasoning about solving hard scientific problems: that when you’ve made an important breakthrough, you should be able to explain the key insight(s) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkXKvkLAcTm5ackCq/intuitions-about-solving-hard-problems |
# Quadratic voting with automatic collusion?
Wondering what happens if you have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadratic_voting but with automated collusion - after all votes are in, pair two people and have them collude automatically, splitting implied utility equally, repeat over and over until everyone has the same ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oqo8v3mdxcxi3dET8/quadratic-voting-with-automatic-collusion |
# [Request for Distillation] Coherence of Distributed Decisions With Different Inputs Implies Conditioning
*There’s been a lot of response to the* [*Call For Distillers*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zo9zKcz47JxDErFzQ/call-for-distillers)*, so I’m experimenting with a new post format. This post is relatively short... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GnMWifHzAknqJsLnv/request-for-distillation-coherence-of-distributed-decisions |
# Rationalist Inspired Coming-of-age Rituals
I was recently asked to lead part of my cousin's secular Bar Mitzvah inspired coming-of-age ceremony. Would love recommendations for rituals, quotes, or wisdom to use here. I've really enjoyed the rituals I've seen come out of the rationalist community, and I'm curious if a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g9capRhzEcB6vNgKy/rationalist-inspired-coming-of-age-rituals |
# 21 on 21
*This is a linkpost for https://amirbolous.com/posts/21/*
Today, I turn 21. Here are 21 reflections for 21 years.
1. The highest ROI thing you can invest in early on is learning to be an independent thinker. The world is full of noise. It's impossible to drown out it all out, but it's possible to pick out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dEAmXSyXnpFFc9wgd/21-on-21 |
# Why pessimism sounds smart
*Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money.*
*–Nat Friedman (*[*quoted by Patrick*](https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1263482890668503041)*)*
I’ve realized a new reason why pessimism sounds smart: optimism often requires believing in *unknown*, unspecified future breakthroughs—whic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j2Et69FpNr2Tmt9So/why-pessimism-sounds-smart |
# Framings of Deceptive Alignment
In this post I want to lay out some framings and thoughts about deception in misaligned AI systems.
Types of Deception
------------------
There seem to be two different things which people mean by deception which have different causes and likely different effects. Because these are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8whGos5JCdBzDbZhH/framings-of-deceptive-alignment |
# dalle2 comments
**(i.)**
========
On April 6, OpenAI announced “DALLE-2” to great fanfare.
There are two different ways that OpenAI talks to the public about its models: as research, and as marketable products.
These two ways of speaking are utterly distinct, and seemingly immiscible. The OpenAI blog contains var... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCtFBWoMeFwG8myYh/dalle2-comments |
# Continental Philosophy as Undergraduate Mathematics
*TL;DR: Revisionist continental philosophy, starring Hegel, Heidegger, and Kant (!?). A fair bit of hand-waving and namedropping maths. Certainly on the weirder end of essays I've written.*
*Previously in this series:* [*Frankfurt Declaration on the Cambridge Decl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nmGtEcZ6yZahN2Qp3/continental-philosophy-as-undergraduate-mathematics |
# [$20K in Prizes] AI Safety Arguments Competition
TL;DR—We’re distributing $20k in total as prizes for submissions that make effective arguments for the importance of AI safety. The goal is to generate short-form content for outreach to policymakers, management at tech companies, and ML researchers. This competition ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3eP8D5Sxih3NhPE6F/usd20k-in-prizes-ai-safety-arguments-competition |
# Why Copilot Accelerates Timelines
> "Say we have intelligences that are narrowly human / superhuman on every task you can think of (which, for what it’s worth, I think will happen within 5-10 years). How long before we have self-replicating factories? Until foom? Until things are dangerously out of our control? Unti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aqTAd7KzsYmHWYdei/why-copilot-accelerates-timelines |
# SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program 2022
The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative ([SERI](https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/stanford-existential-risks-initiative/content/stanford-existential-risks-initiative)) recently opened [applications](https://airtable.com/shr3XO3xZVR9HNPS2) for the second iteration of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8vLvpxzpc6ntfBWNo/seri-ml-alignment-theory-scholars-program-2022 |
# The case for turning glowfic into Sequences
*Epistemic status: serious, uncertain, moderate importance. Leaving comments is encouraged!*
Recently Eliezer Yudkowsky's main writing output has been [rationalist](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/fiction) [glowfic](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_4Z2zdRKaSwZPm3S0X14DY... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FbXPMoR433xBXkDQb/the-case-for-turning-glowfic-into-sequences |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 13. Symbol grounding & human social instincts
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
13.1 Post summary / Table of contents
=====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/Hzc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5F5Tz3u6kJbTNMqsb/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-13-symbol-grounding-and-human |
# Law-Following AI 1: Sequence Introduction and Structure
*This post is written in my personal capacity, and does not necessarily represent the views of OpenAI or any other organization. Cross-posted to the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9RZodyypnWEtErFRM/law-following-ai-1-sequen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrtbF3JHFnqBCztXC/law-following-ai-1-sequence-introduction-and-structure |
# The Game of Masks
**Epistemic Status:** Endorsed
**Content Warning:** Antimemetic Biasing Hazard, Debiasing hazard, Commitment Hazard
**Part of the Series**: Open Portals
**Author**: [Octavia](https://voidgoddess.org/contact/)
0.
So [Scott has been talking about Lacan](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sB4JWzz9qXpZkriFj/the-game-of-masks |
# If you’re very optimistic about ELK then you should be optimistic about outer alignment
*\[The content of this short, nontechnical post is entirely unoriginal – it’s a reframing which I’ve personally found helpful for understanding the thrust of ELK. More specifically, all of the ideas here can be found in the *[*EL... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZpQ3H4YgSw8BRZAHD/if-you-re-very-optimistic-about-elk-then-you-should-be |
# The Speed + Simplicity Prior is probably anti-deceptive
*Thanks to Evan Hubinger for the extensive conversations that this post is based on, and for reviewing a draft.*
This post is going to assume familiarity with mesa-optimization - for a good primer, check out [Does SGD Produce Deceptive Misalignment](https://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KSWSkxXJqWGd5jYLB/the-speed-simplicity-prior-is-probably-anti-deceptive |
# AI Alternative Futures: Scenario Mapping Artificial Intelligence Risk - Request for Participation (*Closed*)
**Overview: AI Futures Risk Model**
===================================
**Summary**: I am a graduate student researching artificial intelligence (AI) risk and typology classifications that could result from... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7KfdM3wEeqJiwYcMN/ai-alternative-futures-scenario-mapping-artificial |
# The Gospel of Martin Luther
**Martin Luther:** "The Catholic church is corrupt."
**Johann von Staupitz:** "You cannot say the Catholic church is corrupt."
**Luther:** "I just did."
**Staupitz:** "I mean you are not allowed to say it."
**Luther:** "According to whose authority? Certainly not God's, for He has yet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7GDXAqcz8yHv2YvTe/the-gospel-of-martin-luther |
# Virtue signaling is sometimes the best or the only metric we have
Subtitle: Costly virtue signaling is an irreplaceable source of empirical information about character.
*The following is* [*cross-posted from my blog*](https://hollyelmore.substack.com/p/acceptance-traps?s=w)*, which is written for a more general... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hpebyswwhiSA4u25A/virtue-signaling-is-sometimes-the-best-or-the-only-metric-we |
# How Might an Alignment Attractor Look like?
It is a generally accepted view in MIRI and MIRI-adjacent circles that the odds are high that an eventual self-improving AGI will not be nice to humans, to put it mildly. It is actually becoming a bit of a zeitgeist, gaining more and more widespread support. There are plen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LiDKveFnmL59u5Ceq/how-might-an-alignment-attractor-look-like |
# Jaan Tallinn's 2021 Philanthropy Overview
to follow up my [philantropic pledge](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZMRCpfGD4iXs5Mi5Q/jaan-tallinn-s-philanthropic-pledge) from 2020, i've updated my [philanthropy page](https://jaan.online/philanthropy/) with 2021 results.
in 2021 i made [$22M worth of endpoint grants](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4GjEWByWaSMEpW5Lc/jaan-tallinn-s-2021-philanthropy-overview |
# Covid 4/28/22: Take My Paxlovid, Please
Many have made the observation that if you had told people two years ago that we would have a cure (not a vaccine, but a cure!) for Covid-19 that was free, safe and effective, but that no one wanted to take it, and Congress wasn’t willing to fund further purchases, people woul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RxSp8uZFN3dJQWqQh/covid-4-28-22-take-my-paxlovid-please |
# A Parable Of Explainability
> Ok, sure, machine learning is great for making predictions; But you can’t use it to replace scientific theory. Not only will it fail to reach [generalizable conclusions](https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=bvKsSuTrHuo), but the result is going to lack elegance and explainability... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZ6EWFbdwkPemxSRb/a-parable-of-explainability |
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