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# How Money Fails to Track Value
*This post was finished for Good Heart Week and speaks to perhaps the most typical context for Goodharting. *
Context: Theory of Money
------------------------
Money is one of the largest factors in determining what gets done in the world and a clearer understanding of it and how it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H25ruF4z92bisttYa/how-money-fails-to-track-value |
# Optional stopping
I offer you an opportunity to play the following game: if you agree to play, I will flip a fair coin until you tell me to stop, and for each toss of the coin if the coin comes up heads I'll pay you 1\$, if the coin comes up tails you'll pay me 1\$. Your advantage is that you can stop playing the ga... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d896mzfoxQcFcc6k6/optional-stopping |
# Retrospective: Practical Social Networking
Practical Social Networking was the third Guild of the ROSE course. Taught by Councilor David Youssef, the course was an introduction to the art of growing and nurturing a healthy social web. While some people got a lot out of it, we also struggled with engagement and there... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mQTyjwcjAyKu3ttDB/retrospective-practical-social-networking |
# Moral Anti-Realism: Introduction & Summary
I recently finished a [9-post sequence on moral anti-realism](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/R8vKwpMtFQ9kDvkJQ) over on the Effective Altruism Forum. This introduction explains my goals in writing the sequence and summarizes its main insights.
[A little further down... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YxzZFm8Cy5QB4Dn3H/moral-anti-realism-introduction-and-summary |
# Moloch and the sandpile catastrophe
It often feels good to slide down efficiency gradients, but they can have tragedies at the bottom. Scott Alexander taught us to name this problem: he called it Moloch.
There is war in the Ukraine. The world's largest wheat exporter, Russia, is fighting the world's fourth-larges... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CLXkgEerPi9MpJCem/moloch-and-the-sandpile-catastrophe |
# [Invisible Networks] Psyche-Sort
_Written for [crtlcreep’s Invisible Networks 2022 challenge](https://twitter.com/ctrlcreep/status/1507351734863212565): “invent a social network each day”, today’s prompt: “Psyche-Sort”._
_Starting from day #2 since I forgot to participate yesterday. _
**Content note:** Cycles of a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E3rQgv4YNrHseQ3LZ/invisible-networks-psyche-sort |
# What words should be shorter in the rational dictionary?
I read some linguistics books a while back, and more recently I've been reading (against my better judgement) [Mad Investor Chaos and the Woman of Asmodeus](https://glowfic.com/posts/4582). So, I've been thinking about word length and concept importance a lot.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yymaQjLwtiwiuxEwC/what-words-should-be-shorter-in-the-rational-dictionary |
# Unfinished Projects Thread
Post about your unfinished projects, incomplete inventions, or not-so-crazy ideas here.
This is an easy-entry version of the old [Crazy Ideas Threads](https://www.lesswrong.com/search?terms=crazy+ideas).
> in the *short run* giving LessWrong members and **lurkers** a stronger incentive ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7bbd2PvXZNRo4ZfJh/unfinished-projects-thread |
# Noobs Need Rules
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/09/10/rules-for-noobs/).
* * *
If you ask someone who’s good at dating for dating advice they’ll often tell you to “just be yourself”. Since they *themselves* are good at dating, being themselves serves them well. But if your self *isn’t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RFAa4HpaXJQF7HXYQ/noobs-need-rules |
# How I repeatedly failed to use Tobit modelling on censored data
*This is a description of my work on a data science project, lightly obfuscated and fictionalized to protect the confidentiality of the organization I handled it for (and also to make it flow better). I focus on the high-level epistemic/mathematical iss... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q5s88FBGqHC8qfLL7/how-i-repeatedly-failed-to-use-tobit-modelling-on-censored |
# Real biosafety is socially inconvenient
Marc Lipsitch and Thomas V. Inglesby wrote back in[ 2014](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4271556/):
> However, research that aims to create new potential pandemic pathogens (PPP) ([1](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4271556/#B1))—novel microbes that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N4G6F6YFBGAKe3Np9/real-biosafety-is-socially-inconvenient |
# Book review: Very Important People
* * *
New York’s nightclubs are the particle accelerators of sociology: reliably creating the precise conditions under which exotic extremes of status-seeking behav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cdB5f2adKoLGW8Ytc/book-review-very-important-people |
# Variadic functions in Hindley Milner
_Note: math didn't transfer to LW. You might find this easier to read [on my blog](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2022/04/02/variadic-hm.html)._
I [previously mentioned](http://reasonableapproximation.net/2021/03/14/haskenthetical-update-macros.html) an interest in adding va... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5cYKLPj2AB6H4FtDA/variadic-functions-in-hindley-milner |
# Uncontrollable Super-Powerful Explosives
*In the late 19th century, two researchers meet to discuss their differing views on the existential risk posed by future Uncontrollable Super-Powerful Explosives.*
* **Catastrophist:** I predict that one day, not too far in the future, we will find a way to unlock a qualit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r8moKsfGzqQcWeCsr/uncontrollable-super-powerful-explosives |
# Approach to Screen Time
Screens can be really engrossing, and learning moderation is pretty hard. This is one of a small number of places (along with staying up as late as they want and [eating as many sweets](https://www.jefftk.com/p/how-much-is-a-sweet) as they'd like) where an approach of letting our kids play wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JgJuySeb52NLdhzxx/approach-to-screen-time |
# 20 Modern Heresies
Burning of Jan Hus, Spiezer Chronicle, 1485
You may... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3tkxG4J4bvZiviwKd/20-modern-heresies |
# Entering At the 11th Hour (Babble & Anaylsis)
### Background
It isn’t obvious what contributing to The Good Future from a non-standard background looks like.
Especially on a short timeline.
I am a first time poster with a background in the arts. I became aware of AI safety as a cause area relatively recently, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ScYGedE9HKvMLfZjs/entering-at-the-11th-hour-babble-and-anaylsis |
# High schoolers can apply to the Atlas Fellowship: $50k scholarship + summer program
Summary
=======
* Jonas Vollmer, Ashley Lin, and I are starting the [Atlas Fellowship](http://www.atlasfellowship.org/), a $50,000 scholarship + all-expenses-paid summer program for ~100 talented high school students from across t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F7RgpHHDpZYBjZGia/high-schoolers-can-apply-to-the-atlas-fellowship-usd50k |
# Becoming a Staff Engineer
*I'm* [*trying to think of things to write*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sSpu2EABtTTDmBZ6T/?commentId=iWFhFsbbdwTuzF8QR) *that would be both easy to hammer out and valuable enough to garner upvotes during these few days when upvotes are extra valuable. So how about a topic I know a lot ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XWthiR3mg9FpSgd8m/becoming-a-staff-engineer |
# General Thoughts on Less Wrong
General disclaimer: Obviously there's always going to be more that could be done and it's better to do a few things well, rather than many things poorly, but I still think it is worth being conscious of areas that could be improved[^fy18qfbrxhq].
* I'm still strongly in favor of add... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ivkerQRMJ3otQXr9F/general-thoughts-on-less-wrong |
# What are some ways in which we can die with more dignity?
Eliezer's recent [kidding not kidding](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy) death with dignity post suggests that our chances of survival are so low that we should just focus on going out with some ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8jJAHLt7f3QFFRpL/what-are-some-ways-in-which-we-can-die-with-more-dignity |
# AI Governance across Slow/Fast Takeoff and Easy/Hard Alignment spectra
It has been suggested that in a rapid enough takeoff scenario, governance would not be useful, because the transition to superintelligence would be too rapid for human actors - whether governments, corporations, or individuals - to respond to. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xxMYFKLqiBJZRNoPj/ai-governance-across-slow-fast-takeoff-and-easy-hard |
# [Invisible Networks] Goblin Marketplace
_Written for [crtlcreep’s Invisible Networks 2022 challenge](https://twitter.com/ctrlcreep/status/1507351734863212565): “invent a social network each day”, today’s prompt: “Goblin Marketplace”._
* * *
“The Goblin Marketplace is that way. Assuming that you have ears on your h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TssLm8qdkEk7KW2GJ/invisible-networks-goblin-marketplace |
# "Don't Get Mad, Get Curious"
*Crossposted from* [*https://e-m-morningstar.dreamwidth.org/1066.html*](https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fe-m-morningstar.dreamwidth.org%2F1066.html)
When I was a kid, my mother once found me in the kitchen, swearing at the dishwasher and shoving its filter around. She had... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n4tdM7xopQoAQDFjJ/don-t-get-mad-get-curious |
# [Book Review] Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective
* * *
Imagine you arrive at work and your ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pi4owuC7Rdab7uWWR/book-review-why-greatness-cannot-be-planned-the-myth-of-the |
# How Real Moral Mazes (in Bay Area startups)?
How real are [moral mazes](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/moral-mazes)? That is, how much is it the case that middle management is all about internal status competitions rather than about doing real useful things for the business?
In general I don't know. I'm not going to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YCpjKnxn7qkyLjzLY/how-real-moral-mazes-in-bay-area-startups |
# A simple guide to life
I first made a version of this chart [seven years ago today](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/584199198720921600). It’s worth a re-up.
The meaning of this chart is:
* **Everything you do should be jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkEpSNvehbKgne5Ln/a-simple-guide-to-life |
# Science is Mining, not Foraging
**Tl;dr:** My model for science is that it is like mining outwards from a point. This offers predictions that extend beyond Scott Alexander’s foraging metaphor and sometimes disagree. The mining metaphor emphasises the fact that research exposes new research problems; that research is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WKGKANcpGMi7E2dSp/science-is-mining-not-foraging |
# On Agent Incentives to Manipulate Human Feedback in Multi-Agent Reward Learning Scenarios
This is an informal (i.e. *sans équations*) summary of a paper on which I have been working.
Abstract
--------
In settings without well-defined goals, methods for reward learning allow reinforcement learning agents to infer t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6TxmJRDGzDbwcLE3w/on-agent-incentives-to-manipulate-human-feedback-in-multi |
# Working Out in VR Really Works
Epistemic Status: **Based almost entirely on my own experience.** Also based on some friends [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mtBwjfygyAudDakyC/shortform?commentId=kt8dBRrhGZJFyndjK), [here](https://www.facebook.com/yonatan.cale/posts/10159922707239828), and in real lif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yzmDgP2hueHRsCP7i/working-out-in-vr-really-works |
# Should we push for banning making hiring decisions based on AI?
There are fast takeoff scenarios but there are also scenarios where AI slowly take more and more power in society till they have enough society that other stakeholders lack the power to move against AI agents. If we want to prepare for such a world it m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xYQzoTyM3woPTfK57/should-we-push-for-banning-making-hiring-decisions-based-on |
# The fingerprints of ideology in science
In the [Birth of Biopolitics](https://freefoucault.eth.link/), Foucault tells the story of how, in the Western civilization, the task of figuring out what's good or bad for society has moved from one organ to another. He mentions the 16th century's "reason of state", the [phys... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAQZa8BDyKnPMmbks/the-fingerprints-of-ideology-in-science |
# The Case for Frequentism: Why Bayesian Probability is Fundamentally Unsound and What Science Does Instead
## Land War in Eurasia
Bayes theorem is a tool for updating probabilities according to evidence.
Consider a real-world example of something important I was recently wrong about. On February 23, I found out [Ru... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rQCAn3ZzHKoZGdANd/the-case-for-frequentism-why-bayesian-probability-is |
# Giving calibrated time estimates can have social costs
In the normal course of my rationalist upbringing, I learned about the classic cognitive biases, including the [planning fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy). This is essentially the fact that it almost always takes longer for a task to get d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tm5LKmj2Nnei4dE62/giving-calibrated-time-estimates-can-have-social-costs |
# The Jordan Peterson vs Sam Harris Debate
In 2018, Jordan Peterson and Sam Harris had [an 8-hour-long debate](https://youtu.be/jey_CzIOfYE) about the value of religion. Millions of people watched it.
Peterson and Harris agree on many things. They both oppose nihilism, post-modernism, moral relativism and religious f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GpKrHPGcwtqiBxKJA/the-jordan-peterson-vs-sam-harris-debate |
# A Word to the Wise is Sufficient because the Wise Know So Many Words
# Collect Ontologies
An **ontology** is a way of bucketing reality. For example, Russians distinguish голубой from синий whereas Anglos bucket both into ["blue"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJJPWZAtwcuEj5WQc/blue-is-arbitrary-1). An ontology i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8PLogvT8QdS6fCaEn/a-word-to-the-wise-is-sufficient-because-the-wise-know-so |
# Bayeswatch 9.5: Rest & Relaxation
Vi lay down on the couch in the real half of the therapy room. The other half was illusory. The real and the imaginary halves were separated by a 3D viewscreen. It only worked on one viewer at a time which was fine because only one patient at a time was allowed into the therapy room... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xNcKbMc49WPx4w8QX/bayeswatch-9-5-rest-and-relaxation |
# Bayeswatch 6.5: Therapy
"What do you mean I need therapy?" said Vi.
"Our records indicate you may have suffered psychological trauma on one of your recent missions," said Eliza.
"Which mission?" said Vi.
"You know," said Eliza. She leaned close to whisper, "Bangui."
"I can neither confirm nor deny whether I have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5knvwbuJxLheHSxpK/bayeswatch-6-5-therapy |
# My Superpower: OODA Loops
I've pushed the value of OODA loops in various posts over the years, but I don't recall ever writing a post specifically about them. Which is weird, because they're a superpower. So much so that I think they are at least 60% responsible for what enables me to lead a life I enjoy (the rest i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lo5aeDo3Tn8SAhGN7/my-superpower-ooda-loops |
# Best non-textbooks on every subject
The best way to learn a subject is undoubtedly by reading a textbook on it. But I find textbooks a drudgery, and tend to give up after a couple of chapters.
On the other hand I don't need a deep broad formal knowledge in every subject. I often just want to know enough that I know... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GiEdQ79EDMjggtBKf/best-non-textbooks-on-every-subject |
# Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War
It seems worth going through the exercise of estimating the probability of nuclear war, and in particular the probability of it causing one’s death. If the probability gets high enough, one can strongly consider being elsewhere or otherwise doing something about it.
Note that _a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u7vy64zqpGfohqdnH/ukraine-post-8-risk-of-nuclear-war |
# Announcing Duncan Sabien as the keynote speaker for the 2022 LessWrong Community Weekend August 26-29!
We will start taking applications on May 1, with rolling responses until all of the spots are filled. At that time an announcement will be made with all additional details.
For four days at the end of August, aspi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RvkZb4szWfsH5dNbA/announcing-duncan-sabien-as-the-keynote-speaker-for-the-2022 |
# Theories of Modularity in the Biological Literature
Introduction
============
This post is part of a sequence describing our team’s research on selection theorems for modularity, as part of this year's [AI Safety Camp](https://aisafety.camp/), under the mentorship of John Wentworth. Here, we provide some background... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JzTfKrgC7Lfz3zcwM/theories-of-modularity-in-the-biological-literature |
# Project Intro: Selection Theorems for Modularity
Introduction - what is modularity, and why should we care?
==========================================================
It’s a well-established meme that evolution is a blind idiotic process, that has often resulted in design choices that no sane systems designer would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XKwKJCXgSKhSr9bZY/project-intro-selection-theorems-for-modularity |
# Creative nonfiction training exercises
After a mutant spider bite, you take Fluffer to a dog park and realize he is bark-gossiping about you with the other dogs. What is he saying?
Fiction authors like to play around with writing prompts like this. The same thing should exist for creative nonfiction. So I tried to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xXCNuBccb6FX3SojE/creative-nonfiction-training-exercises |
# Not-Useless Advice For Dealing With Things You Don't Want to Do
Sometimes, you want to do something hard, like working on a project, but you can't get yourself to do it in the moment. I think most advice one reads about this problem (at least outside of LW) is useless, hence the title. The aspiration of this post wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2mH7v5doDqoCZSn6z/not-useless-advice-for-dealing-with-things-you-don-t-want-to |
# Best informative videos on the Internet
Inspired by Yair Halberstadt's [similar question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GiEdQ79EDMjggtBKf/best-non-textbooks-on-every-subject) about non-textbooks, I'm asking this question to see if people have any videos that they would want to recommend to others.
The criterion i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jfpycm5HGNSn8zdkR/best-informative-videos-on-the-internet |
# Google's new 540 billion parameter language model
Google just announced a very large language model that achieves SOTA across a very large set of tasks, mere days after DeepMind [announced](https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556) *Chinchilla,* and [their discovery](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/midXmMb2Xg37F2Kgn/new-sc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLuQfS7gmfr4nwTdv/google-s-new-540-billion-parameter-language-model |
# Call For Distillers
Many technical alignment researchers are bad-to-mediocre at writing up their ideas and results in a form intelligible to other people. And even for those who are reasonably good at it, writing up a good intuitive explanation still takes a lot of work, and that work lengthens the turn-time on publ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zo9zKcz47JxDErFzQ/call-for-distillers |
# Premortem as communication device (e.g. in relationship)
*Epistemic status:* My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship and we found it surprisingly helpful.
Summary
=======
1. My partner and I did 3 premortems for our romantic relationship.
2. The procedure is: define prompts; collect fail... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y9ovsmEBhqCc6tyQF/premortem-as-communication-device-e-g-in-relationship |
# Is the scaling race finally on?
Exactly one year ago I wrote a lengthy article about the coming phase of massive scaling. Then nothing much happened. GPT-3 was replicated again and again, but nobody went way beyond GPT-3s parameter count (and published what they found). Since last week, this suddenly makes a lot mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kcYxeqEwevsRFPkuF/is-the-scaling-race-finally-on |
# Civil Law and Political Drama
The purpose of this essay is to clarify to YOU, the mind reading this essay, your relation to law, your characteristic blind spot around adversaries, and what sorts of processes are competing for attention in the humans you’re instantiated through.
For contracts and property not to jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FbEbopWMznnj4BCWF/civil-law-and-political-drama |
# Language, Power, and the Categorical Imperative
The Chieftain of Seir's essay [The Crisis of Authority](http://etherealland.com/cheiftainofseir/2008/07/20/the-crisis-of-authority/) provides a helpful historical link between models I've laid out elsewhere. I wrote a long comment that I want to reproduce here.
I'm re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2rrhGm9iYeEHigmMK/language-power-and-the-categorical-imperative |
# Inner Ring as Adversary
Inner rings, as described in CS Lewis's [lecture](https://www.lewissociety.org/innerring/) about them, structurally orient around a kind of evasiveness. In [this Twitter thread](https://web.archive.org/web/20210226142116/https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1320461488495054848.html), Venkatesh ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BoFhK3S28FFrZJwWY/inner-ring-as-adversary |
# Debt, Submission, and a Technical Definition of Drama
Two public answers to private question in which I employ a technical definition of drama.
Origin Debt
-----------
Contractual debts can only exist within some sort of [civil law](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/civil-law-and-political-drama/) wherein commitments... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RMEPCGvsBnPAT8Zow/debt-submission-and-a-technical-definition-of-drama |
# Dr Fauci as Machiavellian Boddhisattva
If you parse what US authority figures like Dr Fauci are explicitly saying about COVID, you end up learning things like:
* An old white man in good health should take [6000 IU of vitamin D per day](https://vitamindwiki.com/Dr.+Fauci+takes+6%2C000+IU+of+Vitamin+D+daily+%E2%80... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fWYgRggZpaDHhpg7Y/dr-fauci-as-machiavellian-boddhisattva |
# App Review: Amaru
I’ve recently become addicted to the self-care virtual pet game Amaru, and it’s sufficiently rare for me to become addicted to an app that I thought I would write up a review, for the benefit of my fellow non-app-users.
Amaru is a virtual pet game with a twist. In addition to feeding and petting y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pHxMNZgA8Na4Npgj7/app-review-amaru |
# Greyed Out Options
Imagine that life is a choose-your-own adventure game.
In any moment, you have literally millions of options. At the moment I’m typing this, I could change the tab to innumerable websites, I could read any of the hundreds of books in my house, I could make myself a snack of olives, I could stand ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2KacvW34BbXFmDBtQ/greyed-out-options |
# Software Engineering: Getting Hired and Promoted
*I'm continuing my series of posts this week to earn more GHT for my* [*donation lottery*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b9NGBDLGzTiHCSqD3/good-heart-donation-lottery) *with another post about my job. This time, I'm coming from the angle of telling you what I tell o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zrkfBp5YEDa86Ars6/software-engineering-getting-hired-and-promoted |
# What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like
Israel as a nation state has an ongoing national security issue involving Iran.
For the last twenty years or so, Iran has been covertly developing nuclear weapons. Iran is a country with a very low opinion of Israel and is generally diplomatically oppose... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kipMvuaK3NALvFHc9/what-an-actually-pessimistic-containment-strategy-looks-like |
# Duels & D.Sci March 2022: Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a follow-up to [last week's D&D.Sci scenario](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mucvqyuo8o9ecbzea/duels-and-d-sci-march-2022-it-s-time-for-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d): if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QzGEXDn9HSStBMXwK/duels-and-d-sci-march-2022-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# Terminal Preferences
I do most of my coding on the command line, so: some views on terminals.
I like having lots of terminals side-by-side, to see many different things simultaneously. Most places I've worked have kept code to 80 columns, with two-space indentation, which is a good fit for my approach. Here's how I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FFhgo8KDXA7i9ecmH/terminal-preferences |
# Yudkowsky Contra Christiano on AI Takeoff Speeds [Linkpost]
*Linkpost for “*[*Yudkowsky Contra Christiano on AI Takeoff Speeds*](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/yudkowsky-contra-christiano-on-ai?s=r)*”, published by Scott Alexander on March 4, 2021. Here is the* [*original conversation*](https://www.lesswrong.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2S4KF7LmgPTXr9AgF/yudkowsky-contra-christiano-on-ai-takeoff-speeds-linkpost |
# Down By 30
Imagine that you are a play caller for a football team that is down by 30 points with, say, 8 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. What's your strategy?
Aggression. That's your strategy. Lot's, and lot's, of aggression.
Let's take a step back. What does a normal strategy in football look like, as far as pl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KjBcXeGCCN8hmkXmA/down-by-30 |
# You get one story detail
So, as you know, [you have about five words](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words). That is, if you want to convey an idea to a bunch of people, you can only reliably communicate ideas simply enough to fit in five words.
I have a related theory.
If yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/APiKzCSDiR49KQtLg/you-get-one-story-detail |
# Why Iraq is so violent
Thought this might be an interesting topic for you all.
# THE CAUSES OF VIOLENCE IN IRAQ
Iraq has struggled with internal violence for most of its history post-independence. 4 coups occurred between independence and Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, about 1 per decade. This unstable period ende... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3fdXacBSbxBi98xWb/why-iraq-is-so-violent |
# I was asked about how to resolve strong emotional fear concerns around the basilisk and this is my instructions as to how to do that.
So you just read something about the basilisk and it freaked you out. There’s some emotional argument around being simulated, tortured and extorted by a future AI. You read it, feel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fvzJBaMuvkJZJtcPm/i-was-asked-about-how-to-resolve-strong-emotional-fear |
# Results: Circular Dependency of Counterfactuals Prize
Now that the deadline has passed, I thought I should announce the winner of my competition on the [Circular Dependency of Counterfactuals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gzw6FwPD9FeL4GTWC/usd1000-usd-prize-circular-dependency-of-counterfactuals).
The winner is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qMfHFdDKbxzku2vpo/results-circular-dependency-of-counterfactuals-prize |
# Print Books of Scott Alexander's Writing
tl;dr: I made it so you can buy print versions of [*The Library of Scott Alexandria*](https://www.lulu.com/en/us/shop/scott-alexander/the-library-of-scott-alexandria/hardcover/product-8dm4m8.html?page=1&pageSize=4), Scott’s [collected fiction](https://www.lulu.com/en/us/shop/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WFmDFQJp27Fb7nxmF/print-books-of-scott-alexander-s-writing |
# A paradox of existence
Introduction
------------
There is a question in philosophy "why is there something rather than nothing?" I have always thought of this question as completely impossible to answer: either it is a meaningless question, or at least there seems to be no way that we can ever begin to answer it. Y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jpbdbgoDikQtubqPD/a-paradox-of-existence |
# Case for emergency response teams
*This project is seeking a paid coordinator. Please apply* [*here*](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScndTWqI2GvBmC65HgIYEEjDqg3RoPiyOx6UryN2W_Kn-y7pw/viewform?usp=sf_link)*.*
Motivation
----------
*See* [*Hinges and crises*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DzBEf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aejMCWEgoFd8uMnpX/case-for-emergency-response-teams |
# Are the fundamental physical constants computable?
Fundamental physical constants are physical constants where the constant value seems unexplainable in terms of more basic physics. For example we have no idea why the relative masses of the various elementary particles are what they are - we see no reason why a muon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KuQCHGfDBmHLtrcp7/are-the-fundamental-physical-constants-computable |
# The case for Doing Something Else (if Alignment is doomed)
(Related to [What an Actually Pessimistic Containment Strategy Looks Like](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kipMvuaK3NALvFHc9/what-an-actually-pessimistic-containment-strategy-looks-like))
It seems to me like there are several approaches with an outside chan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yhRTjBs6oiNcjRgcx/the-case-for-doing-something-else-if-alignment-is-doomed |
# Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)
_Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc._
I'm interested in the topic of **ideal governa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SCs4KpcShb23hcTni/ideal-governance-for-companies-countries-and-more |
# Save Humanity! Breed Sapient Octopuses!
One of the problems that make AI alignment so difficult is that we don't have any models for how non-human intelligences will think. This makes it both hard to reason about how an AGI would behave, but also makes it difficult to get people to take the threat of AI seriously.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DaFG3GKsBrsAnAERR/save-humanity-breed-sapient-octopuses |
# Optimizing crop planting with mixed integer linear programming in Stardew Valley
# Abstract
TL;DR: plant your crops like this and you will make the most money possible
# Motivation
If you haven’t yet tried, consider escaping 2020’s cyberpunk hellscape into the 2D wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEZqP7K4MG6waC2zf/optimizing-crop-planting-with-mixed-integer-linear |
# Prompt Your Brain
Summary: You can prompt your own brain, just as you would GPT-3. Sometimes this trick works surprisingly well for finding inspiration or solving confusing problems.
**Language Prediction**
GPT-3 is a language prediction model that takes linguistic inputs and predicts what comes next based on what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nELEK4mjmtY9H55ov/prompt-your-brain |
# Ukraine Post #9: Again
This is once again a ‘sources and information on everything happening’ post. In the last few days after Russia’s retreat from the Kyiv area, focus has shifted from military and other issues to the atrocities discovered in Bucha. This covers both.
Military Progress and Conditions
-------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8as9Fm9iMuFAh338n/ukraine-post-9-again |
# What Would A Fight Between Humanity And AGI Look Like?
When I imagine what a fight between humanity and a moderately-superhuman AGI looks like… well, mostly I imagine there is no fight, humanity just gets wiped out overnight. But if humanity turns out to be more resilient than expected, and the AGI doesn’t immediate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTbGuLTnycA6wKBza/what-would-a-fight-between-humanity-and-agi-look-like |
# Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
**Highlights**
--------------
* [Comparing top forecasters and domain experts](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZqvBLvR5hX9sEkjR/comparing-top-forecasters-and-domain-experts) finds that past studies mainly were not comparing apples to apples and that the assertion that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MgfipPHJj5yZKepoz/forecasting-newsletter-march-2022 |
# My agenda for research into transformer capabilities - Introduction
I recently applied for funding for my research agenda. I probably did a pretty bad job. In fact just now before writing this second sentence, it occured to me to check my emails and, lo and behold, this specific application has just been denied.
T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWWy7oqopwsuN3mpz/my-agenda-for-research-into-transformer-capabilities |
# Supervise Process, not Outcomes
We can think about machine learning systems on a spectrum from process-based to outcome-based:
* Process-based systems are built on human-understandable task decompositions, with direct supervision of reasoning steps.
* Outcome-based systems are built on end-to-end optimization, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pYcFPMBtQveAjcSfH/supervise-process-not-outcomes |
# Prioritise Tasks by Rating not Sorting
I often get paralysed by indecision when I have a bunch of tasks to do - it’s hard to figure out where to start! My standard solution is **sorting** the tasks into priority order - usually implicitly with a comparison-based sorting method where I go through the list one-by-one ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6aBfxkyFSc3aE7hKD/prioritise-tasks-by-rating-not-sorting |
# Explaining the Twitter Postrat Scene
You are reading this post on LessWrong. If you're like most of my rationalist friends, you believe that LessWrong's culture of decoupled and straightforward communication and focus on timeless issues of rationality and world-optimization has created a community of like-minded peo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rtM3jFaoQn3eoAiPh/explaining-the-twitter-postrat-scene |
# 5-Minute Advice for EA Global
This 5-minute post is perfect advice for me, but YMMV
Week Before
===========
1\. Update your profile (pic, bio, contact). ~20 minutes
2\. Schedule 20 one-on-ones - these are 10x more important than talks. Filter people by interests/stage in career/etc and cp-paste "Hey, I'm bob who ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tnrjqHDD4eayLrKwL/5-minute-advice-for-ea-global |
# AXRP Episode 14 - Infra-Bayesian Physicalism with Vanessa Kosoy
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyXn7Hj2oYc&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=14)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YZ7xzwDrqrvnZjwdn/axrp-episode-14-infra-bayesian-physicalism-with-vanessa |
# Baby Sleep: Multiple Rooms
Babies wake up a lot, and it is worth putting quite a lot of thought and effort into figuring out how parents can still get sleep. One approach we've found helpful is trying to reduce the time when the baby is able to wake us both up by sleeping in multiple rooms.
For example, here's what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rtY2LeyMkZPFXXCwB/baby-sleep-multiple-rooms |
# My Recollection of How This All Got Started
I've told this story to various folks one-on-one. They usually want to know something like "how did you get into AI safety" or "how did you get into EA". And although I expect to keep telling it one-off, I'll write it down for those of you I'll never get to meet.
Why shou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AuMk9g8BhjFKooSdq/my-recollection-of-how-this-all-got-started |
# Nick Attains Aligntenment
In the days after the Singularity, Nick approached an interface to BILLIAC.
"I don't understand. Why didn't the world end, like Yudkowsky and MIRI predicted it would? Why haven't you turned everyone I love into paperclips? _What's your goddamn utility function?!_"
`"A LIBRARY THAT CONTAIN... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmkKAjemxgguFiRQd/nick-attains-aligntenment |
# When to use "meta" vs "self-reference", "recursive", etc.
This post is intended to be a guide on the meaning of and distinction between several related concepts. What makes them related is that they're all pretty abstracted; they all feel sort of "up there". This also makes them unusually easy to confuse.
These ide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gQ5eQjRTY87LpjhQv/when-to-use-meta-vs-self-reference-recursive-etc |
# Testing PaLM prompts on GPT3
Google recently released a [very intriguing paper](https://storage.googleapis.com/pathways-language-model/PaLM-paper.pdf) announcing their latest Transformer language model, PaLM, and showcasing it responding to prompts with seemingly unprecedented results. I highly encourage those who a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EHbJ69JDs4suovpLw/testing-palm-prompts-on-gpt3 |
# Request for beta readers
Not sure if a question is quite the right format for this request, but anyway, I've written a bunch of essays that attempt to [distill](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zo9zKcz47JxDErFzQ/call-for-distillers) a bunch of research about economics and neuroscience. I think they could work as a se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2kyFcZ5jDygdLGoCt/request-for-beta-readers |
# Distilling and approaches to the determinant
There's two steps to deeply understanding a complicated problem:
1. Get a handle on what is going on
2. Distill the idea down to the very core fundamentals
We're going to talk about step (2) here. Having a deep, elegant understanding of a concept makes it much easier ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7BFAWm5LvdSaH32n2/distilling-and-approaches-to-the-determinant |
# Don't die with dignity; instead play to your outs
In [MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy), Eliezer makes a number of claims. As I understood them, they are:
1. Humanity is very likely doomed, because AI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xF7gBJYsy6qenmmCS/don-t-die-with-dignity-instead-play-to-your-outs |
# PaLM in "Extrapolating GPT-N performance"
A bit more than a year ago, I wrote [Extrapolating GPT-N performance](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2SNji3jXaLGhBeYP/extrapolating-gpt-n-performance), trying to predict how fast scaled-up models would improve on a few benchmarks. Google Research just released [a paper](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YzbQeCiwoLBHrvAh4/palm-in-extrapolating-gpt-n-performance |
# Research agenda: Can transformers do system 2 thinking?
This is one of the posts that detail [my research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWWy7oqopwsuN3mpz/my-agenda-for-research-into-transformer-capabilities), which tries to marry Deep Learning and chess to gain insight into current AI technologies. One of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cAur7taZk6ikA2Zcy/research-agenda-can-transformers-do-system-2-thinking |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 11. Safety ≠ alignment (but they’re close!)
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
11.1 Post summary / Table of contents
=====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BeQcPCTAikQihhiaK/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-11-safety-alignment-but-they |
# [Link] Why I’m excited about AI-assisted human feedback
This is a link post for https://aligned.substack.com/p/ai-assisted-human-feedback
I'm writing a sequence of posts on the approach to alignment I'm currently most excited about. This first post argues for recursive reward modeling and the problem it's meant to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qunrsimS2cECxyCKy/link-why-i-m-excited-about-ai-assisted-human-feedback |
# [Link] A minimal viable product for alignment
This is a link post for https://aligned.substack.com/p/alignment-mvp
I'm writing a sequence of posts on the approach to alignment I'm currently most excited about. This second post argues that instead of trying to solve the alignment problem once and for all, we can suc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fYf9JAwa6BYMt8GBj/link-a-minimal-viable-product-for-alignment |
# What I Was Thinking About Before Alignment
People frequently ask me about my backstory - how I got into alignment/agency research, what I did before, that sort of thing. One of the main things I emphasize is that I was thinking about analogous problems in economics and especially in biology, and I think the view fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/otnStQsequ8dckzom/what-i-was-thinking-about-before-alignment |
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