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# What Twitter fixes should we advocate, now that Elon is on the board?
*(*[*Cross-posted from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on) *out of the Goodness of my Heart, and since the same post will often spark* [*radically*](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HtWkBJQqyguQznifw/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on |
# Understanding Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem
*EDIT 2023/07: I recommend reading part one of [this book review](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wwNnzaPnB5a48K86N/book-review-goedel-escher-bach-an-in-depth-explainer) instead (or at least before) this post; it does a better job explaining formal systems.*
This is a po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tb4mJWh3FYGRyid6C/understanding-goedel-s-incompleteness-theorem |
# Notes on the Autobiography of Malcolm X
The Autobiography of Malcolm X isn't just an important historical document, but skillful storytelling about the investigation of a mystery: *why are white people like that*?
In his description of his early life, he seems to clearly show that “imitating white privilege folkway... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GQmqMQwqzGsyKwv5p/notes-on-the-autobiography-of-malcolm-x |
# How to Interpret Vitamin D Dosage Using Numbers
I am sick of people rejecting good evidence about vitamin D because they are confused about the bad evidence and can't be bothered to investigate, so I am going to explain it.
Let's look at this like a 19th century physician who woke up from a coma this morning to tra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vxeBgsbeQ29zvrijo/how-to-interpret-vitamin-d-dosage-using-numbers |
# The Debtors' Revolt
Dear Evan,
You asked whether I had anything in writing to point you to about the history of the great international debtors' revolt of the 20th century, more commonly called the World Wars. I didn't, and I have had some trouble figuring out what the best approach is, in part because it's not cle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6DSPooLjrn354PjjS/the-debtors-revolt |
# Elasticity of Wheat Supply?
I've been hearing concerns about famine stemming from the war in Ukraine. When thinking about how bad that situation is likely to be, the most important thing I don't know is the price elasticity of wheat: how much more wheat do farmers plant, given some increase in price? This is the sor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pgQ2udiMf6pY2wwDv/elasticity-of-wheat-supply |
# What are rationalists worst at?
If we want to [become stronger](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/tsuyoku-naritai), not just individually but as a community, it's worth checking in on what things we're worst at so we can pay attention to those things and become better at them. So, what are the things that LessWrong-styl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3rHPDeiGKQAqpd9Z3/what-are-rationalists-worst-at |
# Why Take Care Of Your Health?
### The Underspecified Normie
You’re well-aware of the benefits of a healthier lifestyle: less pain, more energy, more mobility and autonomy, a higher life expectancy, and so on and so forth ad nauseam.
Unfortunately, this knowledge doesn’t compel you to action. Your behavior mostly f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HSdXwgat7vKmuAypW/why-take-care-of-your-health |
# Contra: Avoiding Sore Arms
A common issue among when dancing Lark role is sore right arms/wrists after dancing. Why does this happen, and what can we do about it?
During the swing, the dancers need to be held together or they'll fall over backwards. That's not because they're leaning back (stay upright!) but becaus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8JpS5D5rfZbqQ6bDb/contra-avoiding-sore-arms |
# How I Got So Much GHT
With Good Heart Week nearing its end and my schedule unlikely to let me write another post, I have one last one to share about how I managed to earn as much GHT as I did.
As of this writing I'm in the top 5. I've been as high as #3 but currently I'm sitting at #4. How did I do it?
Well, to st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dEPMpMKgJDfJTFYyp/how-i-got-so-much-ght |
# Book Review: A PhD is Not Enough
Preface
-------
I want a PhD before I die.
Why? Same reason(s) other people might. Something something passion.
Cynical reasons aside-- nothing else useful to do wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3KwoDSLyKWC7iMoxt/book-review-a-phd-is-not-enough |
# Truthfulness, standards and credibility
-1: Meta Prelude
----------------
While truthfulness is a topic I’ve been thinking about for some time, I’ve not discussed much of what follows with others. Therefore, at the very least I expect to be missing important considerations on some issues (where I’m not simply wrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Brr84ZmvK3kwy2eGJ/truthfulness-standards-and-credibility |
# I discovered LessWrong... during Good Heart Week
*I decided to write this because I thought my experience could be an interesting or useful data point, in particular for understanding the results of* [*Good Heart Week: Extending the Experiment*](/posts/meYCJHJQDDGh5nSN2/good-heart-week-extending-the-experiment)*.*
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9G2YJkhDtTErSvpzA/i-discovered-lesswrong-during-good-heart-week |
# Is GPT3 a Good Rationalist? - InstructGPT3 [2/2]
**Summary**
===========
* IGPT3 mimics two important human epistemic biases:
* IGPT3 exhibits motivated reasoning.
* IGPT3 exhibits a form of bad faith.
* IGPT3 has a lot of knowledge of the world. And in a specific setup, I show that it’s quite hard ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a3FuA7fGgpTQ7mX3W/is-gpt3-a-good-rationalist-instructgpt3-2-2 |
# How BoMAI Might fail
This post is me looking at [1905.12186.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.12186.pdf) and giving some ideas on how it might fail.
Firstly, I would like to point out that I think the design in this paper does buy you some amount of marginal safety when dealing with slightly superhuman AI's, and tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FebeDdcToayY6rHSf/how-bomai-might-fail |
# Duncan Sabien On Writing
The following is an interview I had informally with Duncan Sabien back in early 2020 when I was trying to improve my writing. I thought Duncan gave some great, actionable tips, so I’m sharing it here for other people trying to improve their writing.
*The transcript has been lightly edited ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oWhABDquafaB7v2Bj/duncan-sabien-on-writing |
# Covid 4/7/22: Opening Day
Baseball is back, and only a week late. As a fan with an infant, even though my Mets are somehow _already_ without our top two starting pitchers, I am thrilled. Things are not fully open without opening day. Aside from putting masks on for the subway, life is now fully back to the way it us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DsYpgXDcAygeyoduL/covid-4-7-22-opening-day |
# Productive Mistakes, Not Perfect Answers
*This post is part of the work done at* [*Conjecture*](https://conjecture.dev)*.*
I wouldn’t bet on any current alignment proposal. Yet I think that the field is making progress and abounds with interesting opportunities to do even more, giving us a shot. Isn’t there a contr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ADMWDDKGgivgghxWf/productive-mistakes-not-perfect-answers |
# Playing with DALL·E 2
I got access to [Dall·E 2](https://openai.com/dall-e-2/) yesterday. Here are some pretty pictures!
My goal was to try to understand what things DE2 could do well, and what things it had trouble understanding or generating. My general hypothesis is that it would do a better job with things that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r99tazGiLgzqFX7ka/playing-with-dall-e-2 |
# Convincing Your Brain That Humanity is Evil is Easy
**Epistemic Status:** _Based on my own experience and intuitions only._
Some reasoning heuristics, that the brain uses, seem to rely on that there is limited information available. And newspapers, TV, and search engines break them hard.
Assume, that you want to e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t6s9yh2Hn3BzmS3gY/convincing-your-brain-that-humanity-is-evil-is-easy |
# DeepMind: The Podcast - Excerpts on AGI
[DeepMind: The Podcast - Season 2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_da0i5S-SSU&list=PLqYmG7hTraZBsPYQ7JN0E1QtQOc3H98Ui) was released over the last ~1-2 months. The two episodes most relevant to AGI are:
* [The road to AGI - DeepMind: The Podcast (S2, Ep5)](https://www.youtu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SbAgRYo8tkHwhd9Qx/deepmind-the-podcast-excerpts-on-agi |
# Summary: "Internet Search tips" by Gwern Branwen
*This post is part of my ["research"](https://pabloernesto.github.io/series/research.html) series.*
Branwen, Gwern. Internet Search Tips, 11 December 2018. [https://www.gwern.net/Search](https://www.gwern.net/Search). Accessed: 2022-04-05.
# Why
If memory serves, I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EF6YAq2aD5dt2sgeN/summary-internet-search-tips-by-gwern-branwen |
# The Rationalist-Etcetera Diaspora: A SPREADSHEET!!
For ye sweet springborn children too young to recall — know that LW is but one small isle of a grand and august [archipelago](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/06/07/archipelago-and-atomic-communitarianism/)!
Immediately after our community was born, we schismed a wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k68w7CngnW5ri98LC/the-rationalist-etcetera-diaspora-a-spreadsheet |
# Good Heart Week Is Over!
Final leaderboard for the goodest of hearts
[Good Heart Week](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/meYCJHJQDDGh5nSN2/good-heart-week-extending-the-experiment) has ended!
This wee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYCbdmHaAGXirzMod/good-heart-week-is-over |
# Different perspectives on concept extrapolation
At the recent EAGx Oxford meetup, I ended up talking with a lot of people (18 people, back to back, on Sunday - for some reason, that day is a bit of a blur). Naturally, many of the conversations turned to [value extrapolation/concept extrapolation](https://www.lesswro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9vCEjRFDwmH8FTKH/different-perspectives-on-concept-extrapolation |
# We Are Conjecture, A New Alignment Research Startup
[Conjecture](https://www.conjecture.dev/) is a new alignment startup founded by Connor Leahy, Sid Black and Gabriel Alfour, which aims to scale alignment research. We have VC backing from, among others, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfq2BH5kfQqu2vYv3/we-are-conjecture-a-new-alignment-research-startup |
# AIs should learn human preferences, not biases
A new paper by Rebecca Gorman and me, building on her ideas: [The dangers in algorithms learning humans' values and irrationalities](https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.13985).
In essence, it is better for AIs at all power and alignment levels to learn human preferences (labell... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3PTfkdLLqZE9vppXC/ais-should-learn-human-preferences-not-biases |
# [RETRACTED] It's time for EA leadership to pull the short-timelines fire alarm.
\[EDIT 4/10/2022: This post was rash and ill-conceived, and did not have clearly defined goals nor meet the vaguely-defined ones. I apologize to everyone on here; you should probably update accordingly about my opinions in the future. In... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wrkEnGrTTrM2mnmGa/retracted-it-s-time-for-ea-leadership-to-pull-the-short |
# Takeaways From 3 Years Working In Machine Learning
Disclaimer: Feeling so-and-so about posting this on LW, but given how many people here work in ML or adjacent fields I might as well.
After 3 years working on automl at [Mindsdb](https://github.com/mindsdb/mindsdb), I quit; I won’t be working on anything ml-related... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mX7srfsaej7SaNRdG/takeaways-from-3-years-working-in-machine-learning |
# Language Model Tools for Alignment Research
*I do not speak for the rest of the people working on this project*
\[I think it's valuable to have clear, short intros on different research agendas & projects\]
How does this reduce x-Risk?
----------------------------
AI will continue to become increasingly more powe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AhF8iXLu5PchsmyKf/language-model-tools-for-alignment-research |
# Convincing All Capability Researchers
This post is heavily based off this [excellent comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy?commentId=kPBhEMBLGD2u9uicq) (the author's name is not relevant)
> Give the world's thousand most respected AI researchers $1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaHgLF2BCEdK3KxQd/convincing-all-capability-researchers |
# Roam Research Mobile is Out!
I really enjoy Rome Research and now I can use it on my phone when I want to record a new set of thoughts on the go and not just "QuickCapture".
Download the app and click the bottom-middle tab between "graph List" and "quickCapture". The syncronization between mobile and online is nea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9EasAgnAjitr2thdx/roam-research-mobile-is-out |
# Good Heart Donation Lottery Winner
The [Good Heart Donation Lottery](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b9NGBDLGzTiHCSqD3/good-heart-donation-lottery) is closed. And the winner is...
0 [ggworley (master) ~/lottery](1649449423 2022-04-08 13:23:43)
$ cat lottery.rb
puts Hash[
"EA Funds - Long-Term Futu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H6j3vvc2q8sdwnADh/good-heart-donation-lottery-winner |
# A method of writing content easily with little anxiety
Hello, I have today been informed about a method for writing content that is relatively easy and painless. The idea is that by default a human will when reading predict what word is going to come next. [Studies](https://kuscholarworks.ku.edu/bitstream/handle/180... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4WmrPTYk57teTQ7C/a-method-of-writing-content-easily-with-little-anxiety |
# Buy-in Before Randomization
With kids, some problems are a good fit for randomization. Perhaps you're doing a bath and both kids want to be the second one to have their hair washed, so you propose flipping a coin. The kids understand that they can't both be second, and flipping for it seems fair.
Or, at least, it s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H9AFzFr9bXvxxkEge/buy-in-before-randomization |
# AMA Conjecture, A New Alignment Startup
> [Conjecture](https://www.conjecture.dev/) is a new alignment startup founded by Connor Leahy, Sid Black and Gabriel Alfour, which aims to scale alignment research. We have VC backing from, among others, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur Breitman, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rtEtTybuCcDWLk7N9/ama-conjecture-a-new-alignment-startup |
# Elicit: Language Models as Research Assistants
[Ought](https://ought.org) is an applied machine learning lab. We’re building [Elicit](https://elicit.org), the AI research assistant. Our mission is to automate and scale open-ended reasoning. To get there, we train language models by [supervising reasoning processes, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s5jrfbsGLyEexh4GT/elicit-language-models-as-research-assistants |
# Hyperbolic takeoff
The debate over "slow" versus "fast" takeoff is one of the more controversial subjects in the AI safety community. The question is roughly about whether AI development will be more gradual, or whether once an AI achieves what could be called "general intelligence", it will be able to rapidly grow ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/etgJYbkvvkBoDRm4k/hyperbolic-takeoff |
# New: use The Nonlinear Library to listen to the top LessWrong posts of all time
**Update #1:** It’s a rite of passage to binge the top LessWrong posts of all time, and now you can do it on your podcast app.
We ([Nonlinear](http://www.nonlinear.org/)) made “top of all time” playlists for LessWrong, the EA Forum, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S3z6cqEG7nztt62uu/new-use-the-nonlinear-library-to-listen-to-the-top-lesswrong |
# A concrete bet offer to those with short AGI timelines
\[Update 4 (12/23/2023): Tamay has now conceded.\]
\[Update 3 (3/16/2023): Matthew has now [conceded](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nto7K5W2sNR3Cpmec/conceding-a-short-timelines-bet-early).\]
\[Update 2 (11/4/2022): Matthew Barnett now thinks he will probabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X3p8mxE5dHYDZNxCm/a-concrete-bet-offer-to-those-with-short-agi-timelines |
# Godshatter Versus Legibility: A Fundamentally Different Approach To AI Alignment
### **Disclaimers**
* This is a response to, IMHO, a new pessimism that's rapidly ascending here; example[ one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xF7gBJYsy6qenmmCS/don-t-die-with-dignity-instead-play-to-your-outs), example[ two](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AAFaMCRAhqWGofgxi/godshatter-versus-legibility-a-fundamentally-different |
# Time-Time Tradeoffs
*Epistemic Status: An idea I thought of a few days ago and wrote up quickly. *
I often hear EAs and rationalists making **Time-Money tradeoffs**. The general idea is that money can often be exchanged for time (e.g., buying an Uber to save 30 minutes), and time can be exchanged for money (e.g., s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GLm2idq3PoJDfwmur/time-time-tradeoffs |
# Is Fisherian Runaway Gradient Hacking?
**TL;DR:** No; there is no directed agency that enforces sexual selection through an exploitable proxy. However, Fisherian runaway is an insightful example of the path-dependence of local search, where an easily acquired and apparently useful proxy goal can be so strongly favor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eqNvpQst5TRLbxyTK/is-fisherian-runaway-gradient-hacking |
# Finally Entering Alignment
### Background
Reading
[Death With Dignity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy)
combined with recent advancements shortening my timeline
has finally made me understand on a gut level that
[nature is allowed to kill me](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fzzfKPCnXDJJb38bX/finally-entering-alignment |
# A Brief Excursion Into Molecular Neuroscience
*TL;DR: Poking fun at complicated nomenclature (p̴͓̂͘á̴̻͌s̶̻̗͋͑ṯ̸̹̈́̌à̶̳), identifying a pretty important signaling factor in the brain, and arbitrating (part of) the Guzey/Mendonça debate.*
*Previously in this series:* [*How to build a mind - neuroscience edition*](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67exdQCqJARtRbtru/a-brief-excursion-into-molecular-neuroscience |
# Does non-access to outputs prevent recursive self-improvement?
Most existing large-scale models don't seem to have access to their outputs (except in the sense that some of their outputs show up in the inputs of the next generation of the model). **Does this prevent recursive self-improvement - or at least limit the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsL5jecXPmY63NP6R/does-non-access-to-outputs-prevent-recursive-self |
# Emotionally Confronting a Probably-Doomed World: Against Motivation Via Dignity Points
*This article was written* [*in ignorance*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fri4HdDkwhayCYFaE/do-a-cost-benefit-analysis-of-your-technology-usage) *of the alignment community’s reaction to Eliezer’s “*[*Death with Dignity*](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cf2zBkoocqcjnrNFD/emotionally-confronting-a-probably-doomed-world-against |
# Convince me that humanity is as doomed by AGI as Yudkowsky et al., seems to believe
I’ve been very heavily involved in the (online) rationalist community for a few months now, and like many others, I have found myself quite freaked out by the apparent despair/lack of hope that seems to be sweeping the community. Whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dSaScvukmCRqey8ug/convince-me-that-humanity-is-as-doomed-by-agi-as-yudkowsky |
# Epistemic Slipperiness
*(epistemic status: thinking out loud, kinda confused)*
Sometimes I interact with a person, and something about their thinking feels... slippery.
Probably, sometimes *my* mind is slippery. But, I can't quite pin down when.
This is probably actually several different phenomena, but they blur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m6dLwGbAGtAYMHsda/epistemic-slipperiness-1 |
# Is it time to start thinking about what AI Friendliness means?
Some background:
I have followed the writing of Eliezer on AI and AI safety with great interest (and mostly, I agree with his conclusions).
I have done my share of programming.
But, I confess, most of the technical side of AI alignment is beyond my cu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KtCgvaPRzWPCoFKWp/is-it-time-to-start-thinking-about-what-ai-friendliness |
# China Covid Update #1
An increasingly large percentage of new developments are coming from China and in particular from Shanghai. It seems sensible to post them on their own rather than waiting for Thursday.
When they locked down Shanghai by halves, it meant they did not have the resources to lock down Shanghai. [T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YSyqzqb37LNnDkj6B/china-covid-update-1 |
# Goodhart's Law Causal Diagrams
Goodhart's law is closely related to both [inner](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB/p/Fkgsxr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e4SMfYWb4Tz568yh6/goodhart-s-law-causal-diagrams |
# What Chords Do You Need?
You famously only need [four chords](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheFourChordsOfPop) to play everything, or maybe it's only [three](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ThreeChordsAndTheTruth). But how true is this really?
I decided to go look and see what was common.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2gYNXbLXmqbHFDAeA/what-chords-do-you-need |
# Post-history is written by the martyrs
*This is a story I wrote in late 2020, a few months after GPT-3 was released. Speculative fiction seems to be well received here, and although this is not as serious a story as* [*my other recent post*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality-is-the-tiger-a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LbXeRounm7tg6i8mk/post-history-is-written-by-the-martyrs |
# Editing Advice for LessWrong Users
Who am I?
---------
I'm an editor who does [feedback requests](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsCwdYJEpmW5Hw5Xm/lesswrong-is-providing-feedback-and-proofreading-on-drafts) for LessWrong. Many of these feedback requests are for proofreading/clarity of language, so I have lots of e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5e49dHLDJoDpeXGnh/editing-advice-for-lesswrong-users |
# Underappreciated content on LessWrong
It's likely that there is some mismatch between your preferences and the preferences of the LessWrong community about which posts or comments are good or deserving of upvotes. In addition to these differences, good content sometimes doesn't receive much attention from the commun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DyR4rn9HLDYvmyJnS/underappreciated-content-on-lesswrong |
# Review: Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs
*This is a linkpost (written several years ago) that I'm posting in response to a request to share more of the archive of my* [*personal blog*](https://www.strataoftheworld.com/) *on LessWrong. It is most useful if you have none or limited experience with fun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAqCiWJBttazYGsJR/review-structure-and-interpretation-of-computer-programs |
# The Efficient LessWrong Hypothesis - Stock Investing Competition
There has been debate to whether the [Efficient Market Hypothesis](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/efficient-market-hypothesis#:~:text=The%20Efficient%20Market%20Hypothesis%20states,information%20other%20traders%20don't.) is or ever was valid.
The evide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M4ZEXrkQQW2WZvKcy/the-efficient-lesswrong-hypothesis-stock-investing |
# The Regulatory Option: A response to near 0% survival odds
This is inspired by Eliezer’s [“Death with Dignity”](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy) post. Simply put, AI Alignment has failed. Given the lack of Alignment technology AND a short timeline to A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9oxKJghFjk9WmG9YX/the-regulatory-option-a-response-to-near-0-survival-odds |
# An AI-in-a-box success model
Given that the strategy of [Death with Dignity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy) is not particularly appealing to me, and that others have encouraged us to instead [Do Something Else (if Alignment is Doomed)](https://www.le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ubCjGESWpKJrTBXTP/an-ai-in-a-box-success-model |
# Rambling thoughts on having multiple selves
In the past, if someone was to ask me “are you good at describing your emotions” or “are you good at introspecting” my answer would be a resounding yes. I have always felt like I have a profound understanding of my feelings, desires and true nature, even when some aspects ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRGp3DK7NGCLA8MHD/rambling-thoughts-on-having-multiple-selves |
# Rationalist Should Win. Not Dying with Dignity and Funding WBE.
This is somewhat a response to the [Dying with Dignity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy) post.
Rationalist should win. If you are taking actions that lead to failure, you aren’t be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/otPSFpvysyFfhMQgJ/rationalist-should-win-not-dying-with-dignity-and-funding |
# The Amish
Book review: The Amish, by Donald B. Kraybill.
It feels appropriate to review this book right after [The Dawn of
Everything](http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2022/03/10/the-dawn-of-everything/)
(TDOE). There are strange contrasts between the cultural views of the
two books.
TDOE clea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vzhgpG2BrF2nN3b5g/the-amish |
# Three questions about mesa-optimizers
I recently (re-)read [Risks From Learned Optimization](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB), which introduced mesa-optimizers and inner alignment. (I don't aim to explain what these things mean in this post, but [here's](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/decep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PrNw3EBSwYfJyREjE/three-questions-about-mesa-optimizers |
# AI governance student hackathon on Saturday, April 23: register now!
[*Cross-posted from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2s3gEnHiduSmYZX9R/ai-governance-student-hackathon-on-saturday-april-23)
[Columbia Effective Altruism](https://www.columbia-ea.org/) and [Roosevelt at Columbia](http://roo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N4wb4FbnuhaqSg7dT/ai-governance-student-hackathon-on-saturday-april-23 |
# A broad basin of attraction around human values?
Followup to: [Morality is Scary]( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y5jAuKqkShdjMNZab/morality-is-scary), [AI design as opportunity and obligation to address human safety problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbtvgNXkufFRSrx4j/three-ai-safety-related-ideas)
In [Cor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TrvkWBwYvvJjSqSCj/a-broad-basin-of-attraction-around-human-values |
# How I use Anki: expanding the scope of SRS
**Intro to this post**
======================
So maybe you’ve heard about spaced repetition, and you’re familiar with the basic ideas for why it can be highly beneficial for learning. But despite this, you don’t really use it all that much / at all, maybe because you find ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gHjsQpEDmL5jHyTuZ/how-i-use-anki-expanding-the-scope-of-srs |
# Reward model hacking as a challenge for reward learning
This post discusses an issue that could lead to catastrophically misaligned AI even when we have access to a perfect reward signal and there are no misaligned inner optimizers. Instead, the misalignment comes from the fact that our reward signal is too expensiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yyoKYmfFx7zpPyD99/reward-model-hacking-as-a-challenge-for-reward-learning |
# Ukraine Post #10: Next Phase
This is another Covid-style Ukraine post in the ‘here are all the things that caught my attention since the last one of these posts’ tradition.
I have noticed that the rate at which I notice noteworthy new things while looking at my sources has declined steadily. The situation is becomi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DumBGkH42qCRqKK4m/ukraine-post-10-next-phase |
# Introducing Effective Self-Help
*An adapted, somewhat updated version of this article posted to the EA Forum a few months ago:* [*https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/i2Q3DTsQq9THhFEgR/introducing-effective-self-help*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/i2Q3DTsQq9THhFEgR/introducing-effective-self-help) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t6hF7pot5LsL7hjrd/introducing-effective-self-help-2 |
# US Taxes: Adjust Withholding When Donating?
A friend recently asked:
> I am considering increasing my donation amount to a 2-digit percentage of income, and was wondering about the logistics of federal/state income tax withholdings.
>
> Do you have your employer reduce withholdings upfront? Was it simple to have t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZebZgEoWuqBWs5Cye/us-taxes-adjust-withholding-when-donating |
# A Small Negative Result on Debate
Some context for this [new arXiv paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.05212) from my group at NYU:
* We're working toward [sandwiching](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-aligning-narrowly-superhuman-models) experiments using our [QuALITY long-docume... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CL8RFFCdsBwWWfKYS/a-small-negative-result-on-debate |
# Does the rationalist community have a membership funnel?
I was talking to someone the other day about the ways in which I've noticed the \[Berkeley\] rationalist community changing. One of the main ways was that group houses seemed to be disappearing. People were getting older, moving away, or just moving into their... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4k2YMDiefzdjPWCDa/does-the-rationalist-community-have-a-membership-funnel |
# Useful Vices for Wicked Problems
I've claimed that the best way to learn is [by writing](https://www.cold-takes.com/learning-by-writing/) about important topics. (Examples I've worked on [include](https://www.cold-takes.com/learning-by-writing/): [which charity to donate to](https://www.cold-takes.com/the-wicked-pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MiDpjWraeL5bypRE/useful-vices-for-wicked-problems |
# Convincing People of Alignment with Street Epistemology
Having a group of people who have experience convincing people of alignment helps us:
* 1\. Convince people of alignment
* 2\. Make explicit common reasons for skepticism and unwillingless
* 3\. Coach people who want to have these conversations w/ their ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m2axtF3iiu6YxXM2n/convincing-people-of-alignment-with-street-epistemology |
# Commensurable Scientific Paradigms; or, computable induction
*Epistemic status - could use more rigor.*
Thomas Kuhn's 1962 book "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" (SSR) is a foundational work in the sociology and history of science.
SSR makes several important claims:
1. Scientific disciplines (e.g. astro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7x4eGxXL5DMwRwzDQ/commensurable-scientific-paradigms-or-computable-induction |
# “Fragility of Value” vs. LLMs
It seems like we keep getting LLMs that are better and better at *getting* the point of fairly abstract concepts (e.g. understanding jokes). As compute increases and their performance improves, it seems increasingly likely that human “values” are within the class of not-that-heavily-fin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Kxi3mEAwNxoYFu7T/fragility-of-value-vs-llms |
# What more compute does for brain-like models: response to Rohin
This is a response to a comment made by [Rohin Shah](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/rohinmshah) on [Daniel Kokotajlo](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo)'s post [Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rzqACeBGycZtqC... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Ae8rcYjWAe6zfdQs/what-more-compute-does-for-brain-like-models-response-to |
# How dath ilan coordinates around solving alignment
Summary
-------
* Eliezer Yudkowsky created dath ilan in 2014 as a fictional world where Yudkowsky is the median person. Since then, he has written hundreds of pages of fiction in this setting, mostly "rational fiction", which means that Yudkowsky thinks most of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AvANsxR88iiZziKPt/how-dath-ilan-coordinates-around-solving-alignment |
# The Cage of the Language
> Wittgenstein: Die Grenzen meiner Sprache bedeuten die Grenzen meiner Welt.
>
> Passer-by: Where's that guy from? Is he Dutch?
I've never thought much of the Wittgenstein's argument. First, there's non-verbal thinking that can be used to escape the limits of the language. Second, once the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zSbrbiNmNp87eroHN/the-cage-of-the-language |
# Another list of theories of impact for interpretability
[Neel's post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uK6sQCNMw8WKzJeCQ/a-longlist-of-theories-of-impact-for-interpretability) on this is good. I thought I'd add my own list/framing. Somewhat rough.
I see various somewhat different ways in which interpretability ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQALrtMkeqemAF5GX/another-list-of-theories-of-impact-for-interpretability |
# Common Knowledge is a Circle Game for Toddlers
I wanted to jot down a particular instance of a common interaction I have with my daughter.
My child, wife, and I are sitting around the coffee table in the living room discussing the plan to take the car to the mechanic the next day. We describe this as *going on an a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d7E2ZDdXJPzo9DbZe/common-knowledge-is-a-circle-game-for-toddlers |
# What to include in a guest lecture on existential risks from AI?
A professor I'm friendly with has been teaching a course on AI ethics this semester, and he asked me if I could come give a guest lecture on "AI apocalypse" scenarios. What should I include in the lecture?
Details:
* Audience is mostly graduate eng... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwk8HGroo74WALLHy/what-to-include-in-a-guest-lecture-on-existential-risks-from |
# Takeoff speeds have a huge effect on what it means to work on AI x-risk
The slow takeoff hypothesis predicts that AGI emerges in a world where powerful but non-AGI AI is already a really big deal. Whether AI is a big deal right before the emergence of AGI determines many super basic things about what we should think... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hRohhttbtpY3SHmmD/takeoff-speeds-have-a-huge-effect-on-what-it-means-to-work-1 |
# Design, Implement and Verify
Taking a look at the latest here after a hiatus, I notice there is once again a lot of discussion about the problem of AI safety, clearly a cause for concern to people who believe it to be an existential threat.
I personally think AI safety is not an existential threat, not because I be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zqz9mfmBJvZwGcbyn/design-implement-and-verify |
# A Quick Guide to Confronting Doom
Within the last two weeks, two sets of things happened: Eliezer Yudkowsky shared a post expressing extreme pessimism about humanity's likelihood of surviving AGI, and a number of AI research labs published new, highly impressive results. The combination of these two has resulted in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQtEqmyqHWDa2vf5H/a-quick-guide-to-confronting-doom |
# Make a Movie Showing Alignment Failures
My previous girlfriend didn't want to live forever when I asked her years ago; not even 200 years as a healthy adult! But we watched an [episode of Black Mirror](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Junipero) where people can be temporarily uploaded into a fun virtual world and p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JqdGMEy3KirahN62d/make-a-movie-showing-alignment-failures |
# Exploring toy neural nets under node removal. Section 1.
Introduction
============
This post is a long and graph heavy exploration of a tiny toy neural network.
Suppose you have some very small neural network. For some inexplicable reason, you want to make it even smaller. Can we understand how the network behav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ccomTjWyS4pyZoJQ/exploring-toy-neural-nets-under-node-removal-section-1 |
# Features that make a report especially helpful to me
Cross-post from [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SdQYLKzpDFQsdW9bn/features-that-make-a-report-especially-helpful-to-me), follow-up to [EA needs consultancies](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CwFyTacABbWuzdYwB/ea-needs-consultancies).... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ax9e4Jty9hiQqbie/features-that-make-a-report-especially-helpful-to-me |
# Emacs Recentering With Context
In emacs, when you press Ctrl-L, by default it runs `[recenter-top-bottom](https://www.gnu.org/software/emacs/manual/html_node/emacs/Recentering.html)`. This scrolls the document ("buffer") so the line the cursor is currently on is centered in the screen. If you press it again, it scro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3qrgPpwvcFRuoSvCJ/emacs-recentering-with-context |
# Lies Told To Children
Growing up, as a kid, I was always told that every sapient life is precious, everything that thinks and knows itself -
Yes, this *is* a tale about lies-told-to-children. You'll probably figure it out yourself before too long. For now, just listen.
Where was I? Right. As children, we were ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uyBeAN5jPEATMqKkX/lies-told-to-children-1 |
# Only Asking Real Questions
It's easy to accidentally ask children questions that aren't real questions. Perhaps the right answer is so obvious I don't realize in time that they might decide otherwise: "do you want to wait to eat your messy candy until we're out of the car?" Or I don't figure out that there was only ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/brpLHpJQ4tYfbudTo/only-asking-real-questions |
# Covid 4/14/22: China Stays the Course
Will China abandon its zero Covid policy? For now it seems they are determined to stay the course and hope for the best. They continue to claim there have been zero Covid deaths. There are increasing signs the people are not happy about the situation, especially in Shanghai. At ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ywJFiZyhyuubZ6sMy/covid-4-14-22-china-stays-the-course |
# Redwood Research is hiring for several roles (Operations and Technical)
[Redwood Research](https://www.redwoodresearch.org/) is a research o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oaNdzXT4fbbehFHr3/redwood-research-is-hiring-for-several-roles-operations-and |
# Can someone explain to me why MIRI is so pessimistic of our chances of survival?
To be clear, when I reference MIRI as being pessimistic, I’m mostly referring to the broad caricature of them that exists in my mind. I’m assuming that their collective arguments can be broken down into:
1.) There is no plan or workabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ujnJdexBWAJcwCDoX/can-someone-explain-to-me-why-miri-is-so-pessimistic-of-our |
# Early 2022 Paper Round-up
My students and collaborators have been doing some particularly awesome work over the past several months, and to highlight that I wanted to summarize their papers here, and explain why I’m excited about them. There’s six papers in three categories.
**Human-Aligned AI**
* [The Effects o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qAhT2qvKXboXqLk4e/early-2022-paper-round-up |
# Pivotal acts from Math AIs
Eliezer Yudkowsky on Math AIs
-----------------------------
Here are some interesting quotes from the [alignment debate with Richard Ngo](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7im8at9PmhbT4JHsW/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty).
> If it were possible to perform some pivotal act that s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xmH6SaLhDCF3cmsYy/pivotal-acts-from-math-ais |
# Refine: An Incubator for Conceptual Alignment Research Bets
I’m opening an incubator called **Refine **for [conceptual alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2Xfv3GQgo2kGER8vA/alignment-research-conceptual-alignment-research-applied) research in London, which will be hosted by [Conjecture](https://www.lessw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7epkkJb3CqDTYgX9/refine-an-incubator-for-conceptual-alignment-research-bets |
# How path-dependent are human values?
In [the Pointers Problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gQY6LrTWJNkTv8YJR/the-pointers-problem-human-values-are-a-function-of-humans), John Wentworth points out that human values are a function of latent variables in the world models of humans.
My question is about a specific... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vEpgdSHcsJxTiBtKg/how-path-dependent-are-human-values |
# How to become an AI safety researcher
*Crossposted from the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PH2pqsqgXQkfCdmkv/how-to-become-an-ai-safety-researcher)*.*
*Reminder that you can listen to this post and other LessWrong posts on your podcast player with* [*The Nonlinear Library*](https://pod.link... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKPtCoDesfawNfyJg/how-to-become-an-ai-safety-researcher |
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