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# Meta Decision Theory and Newcomb's Problem
Hi all,
As part of my PhD I've written a paper developing a new approach to decision theory that I call Meta Decision Theory. The idea is that decision theory should take into account decision-theoretic uncertainty as well as empirical uncertainty, and that, once we acknow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CttZFMmikuKuFmNT7/meta-decision-theory-and-newcomb-s-problem |
# MetaMed: Evidence-Based Healthcare
In a world where 85% of doctors can't solve [simple Bayesian word problems](http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/ps/PS_Teaching_2001.pdf)...
In a world where only 20.9% of reported results that a pharmaceutical company tries to investigate for development purposes, [fully replicat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f9s7pHub6hbsX7YKT/metamed-evidence-based-healthcare |
# SENS and Givewell: Conversation between Holden Karnofsky and Aubrey de Grey
**[Givewell](http://www.givewell.org/)’s Holden Karnofsky, who has previously posted his [thoughts on Givewell supporting SI/MIRI](/lw/cbs/thoughts_on_the_singularity_institute_si/) recently discussed the potential for Givewell to begin eval... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iYN9wW7ePXDT5ZRSE/sens-and-givewell-conversation-between-holden-karnofsky-and |
# Caelum est Conterrens: I frankly don't see how this is a horror story
So Eliezer said in his March 1st [HPMOR progress report](http://hpmor.com/notes/progress-13-03-01/):
> I recommend the recursive fanfic “[Friendship is Optimal: Caelum est Conterrens](http://www.fimfiction.net/story/69770/friendship-is-optimal-ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dCrDWWAS8Q2uFDYGD/caelum-est-conterrens-i-frankly-don-t-see-how-this-is-a |
# Getting myself to eat vegetables
[](http://www.jefftk.com/veggies_on_top.jpg)
I have a strategy for getting myself to eat vegetables. I've been using it for about six months now, and it works well:
* Put the food I want to eat on my plate.
* Put raw vegetables... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wLE3SpzqBa88h3J4b/getting-myself-to-eat-vegetables |
# Don't Get Offended
**Related to:** [Politics is the Mind-Killer](/lw/gw/politics_is_the_mindkiller/), [Keep Your Identity Small](http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html)
**Followed By:** [How to Not Get Offended](/lw/gwx/how_to_not_get_offended/)
One oft-underestimated threat to [epistemic rationality](http://wiki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Ci2Zxncj3oiB2NP4/don-t-get-offended |
# Boring Advice Repository
This is an extension of a comment I made that I can't find and also a request for examples. It seems plausible that, when giving advice, many people optimize for deepness or punchiness of the advice rather than for actual practical value. There may be good reasons to do this - e.g. advice th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HEn2qiMxk5BggN83J/boring-advice-repository |
# A problem with "playing chicken with the universe" as an approach to UDT
Let's consider the agent given in [A model of UDT with a halting oracle](/r/discussion/lw/8wc/a_model_of_udt_with_a_halting_oracle/). One will notice that that agent is not quite well defined because it doesn't tell us in what order we are supp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9KoyMKHmwCCJdMma4/a-problem-with-playing-chicken-with-the-universe-as-an |
# Rationalist fiction brainstorming funtimes
The title should make things clear enough, so let's start with my description of the target, rationalist fiction: fiction that tries to teach the audience rationalist cognitive skills by having characters model those skills for the reader.
So for example, [_Luminosity_](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bBcStSetHwXv4ovmj/rationalist-fiction-brainstorming-funtimes |
# Co-Working Collaboration to Combat Akrasia
Before I was very involved in the Less Wrong community, I heard that Eliezer was looking for [people to sit with him](/lw/1sm/akrasia_tactics_review/1nl4) while he worked, to increase writing productivity. I knew that he was doing important work in the world, and figured th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zq3Dey8ZboSby6YAv/co-working-collaboration-to-combat-akrasia |
# Cognitive Load and Effective Donation
(previous title: Very low cognitive load)
> Trusting choices made by the same brain that turns my hot 9th grade teacher into a knife-bearing possum at the last second every damn night.
[Sean Thomason](https://twitter.com/TheThomason/status/299933850400874497)
We can't trust ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/phSk7LNnChpv6RqWe/cognitive-load-and-effective-donation |
# Rationality Habits I Learned at the CFAR Workshop
Recently Leah Libresco asked attendees at the January [CFAR Workshop](/lw/g6g/applied_rationality_workshops_jan_2528_and_march/), "What habits have people installed after workshops?" and that got me thinking that now was a good time to write up and review what I lear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ymwyTDc96uaAqZ48e/rationality-habits-i-learned-at-the-cfar-workshop |
# A Quick and Dirty Survey: Textbook Learning
Hello, folks. I'm one of those long-time lurkers.
I've decided to conduct, as the title suggests, a quick and dirty survey in hopes of better understanding a problem I have (or rather, whether or not what I have is actually a problem).
**Here's some context:** I'm a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z4Dwqia5sBvFLmW2q/a-quick-and-dirty-survey-textbook-learning |
# You only need faith in two things
You only need faith in two things: That "induction works" has a non-super-exponentially-tiny prior probability, and that some single large ordinal is well-ordered. Anything else worth believing in is a deductive consequence of one or both.
(Because being exposed to ordered sensor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmSuDDFE4dicqd4Hg/you-only-need-faith-in-two-things |
# AI prediction case study 2: Dreyfus's Artificial Alchemy
_Myself, Kaj Sotala and Seán ÓhÉigeartaigh recently submitted a paper entitled "The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future" to the conference proceedings of the AGI12/AGI Impacts [Winter Intelligence](http://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wyWfxzpjuetXokJZv/ai-prediction-case-study-2-dreyfus-s-artificial-alchemy |
# AI prediction case study 3: Searle's Chinese room
_Myself, Kaj Sotala and Seán ÓhÉigeartaigh recently submitted a paper entitled "The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future" to the conference proceedings of the AGI12/AGI Impacts [Winter Intelligence](http://www.wint... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xjr8zLcyizqQxBkGk/ai-prediction-case-study-3-searle-s-chinese-room |
# Imposing conditions that would have been evidence about optimal behaviour in the EEA
_Warning: armchair evopsych speculation follows._
_Related to: [Summer vs Winter Strategies](/lw/29h/summer_vs_winter_strategies/)
_
A couple months ago, I had a large amount of tedious work to do. Whenever I sat down to do it, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4D7pAwQ3by33iiRpq/imposing-conditions-that-would-have-been-evidence-about |
# AI prediction case study 5: Omohundro's AI drives
_Myself, Kaj Sotala and Seán ÓhÉigeartaigh recently submitted a paper entitled "The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future" to the conference proceedings of the AGI12/AGI Impacts [Winter Intelligence](http://www.wint... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbKhdCLNrAebarXNM/ai-prediction-case-study-5-omohundro-s-ai-drives |
# [LINK] Intrade Shuts Down
Intrade, the prediction market website, has shutdown. According to [their website](http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/):
With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on [www.intrade.com](http://www.intrade.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o8SgsvTGMkKyQZRud/link-intrade-shuts-down |
# Risks of downloading alien AI via SETI search
**Alexei Turchin. Risks of downloading alien AI via SETI search**
_Abstract: This article examines risks associated with the program of passive search for alien signals (SETI—the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence). In this paper we propose a scenario of possible... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jng2cZQtyuXDPihNg/risks-of-downloading-alien-ai-via-seti-search |
# Programming the LW Study Hall
**We've had considerable interest and uptake on the [Less Wrong Study Hall](/lw/gwo/coworking_collaboration_to_combat_akrasia/), especially with informal timed Pomodoro sessions for everyone to synchronize on. Working together with a number of other visible faces, and your own face vis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gcsnPPC3BmvzFDtEE/programming-the-lw-study-hall |
# Bayesian Adjustment Does Not Defeat Existential Risk Charity
(This is a long post. If you’re going to read only part, please read sections 1 and 2, subsubsection 5.6.2, and the conclusion.)
### 1\. Introduction
Suppose you want to give some money to charity: where can you get the most bang for your philanthropic b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JyH7ezruQbC2iWcSg/bayesian-adjustment-does-not-defeat-existential-risk-charity |
# Arguing Orthogonality, published form
_My paper "General purpose intelligence: arguing the Orthogonality thesis" has been accepted for publication in the [December edition](http://www.addletonacademicpublishers.com/search-in-am/1964-general-purpose-intelligence-arguing-the-orthogonality-thesis) of Analysis and Metap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AJ3aP8iWxr6NaKi6j/arguing-orthogonality-published-form |
# We Don't Drink Vodka (LW Moscow report)
And we don't have bears playing balalaikas. Well, I would like to tell you about Moscow rationality community after all, not about some B movie featuring crazy Russians.
Moscow community have grown from 5 people on my first meetup to 17 on the last one. And I believe we have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9x6TKESmwCDToTcv/we-don-t-drink-vodka-lw-moscow-report |
# Recent updates to gwern.net (2012-2013)
> Previous: [Recent updates to gwern.net (2011)](/lw/8kv/recent_updates_to_gwernnet/)
“But where shall wisdom be found? / And where is the place of understanding? / Man knoweth not the price thereof; neither is it found in the land of the living…for the price of wisdom is ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZB37f25up8E7Z8Dn/recent-updates-to-gwern-net-2012-2013 |
# Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality Bookshelves
A while back in the Columbus Rationality group, we started wondering: What books would the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality houses have in each of their libraries? We had fun categorizing different subjects:
* Gryffindor - Combat, ethics, and jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v8axSFqPb5btC5Qq5/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-bookshelves |
# Critiques of the heuristics and biases tradition
The chapter on judgment under uncertainty in the (excellent) new _[Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology](http://www.amazon.com/Oxford-Handbook-Cognitive-Psychology-Library/dp/0195376749/)_ has a handy little section on recent critiques of the "heuristics and biases... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAf4W9ZYuzuLaGvd5/critiques-of-the-heuristics-and-biases-tradition |
# Solstice and Megameetup Preparations for 2013
I'm officially spinning the Solstice and related ritual stuff into something distinct from Less Wrong (there are good reasons to leave LW focusing on straight-up rationality, and I think it should cater more towards "serious business intellectuals" than trying to appeal ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/efbYB7pHvKA8LT4GK/solstice-and-megameetup-preparations-for-2013 |
# Suggestion: Read Paul Graham
This isn't really a full post, but merely a note of potential interest. Paul Graham (who runs [Hacker News](https://news.ycombinator.com/)) has several very interesting and thought-provoking essays located on [his personal website](http://www.paulgraham.com/articles.html). To me they fit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/siHLPwCKXpByjp69x/suggestion-read-paul-graham |
# How to Not Get Offended
**Followup to: **[Don't Get Offended](/r/lesswrong/lw/gux/dont_get_offended/)
**Draws heavily on:** [Stoicism](http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/stoicism/), [Keep Your Identity Small](http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html),[Living Luminously](http://www.lesswrong.com/lw/1xh/living_luminous... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zQfjaxhxuXToyaetp/how-to-not-get-offended |
# Why AI may not foom
### Summary
* There's a decent chance that the intelligence of a self-improving AGI will grow in a relatively smooth exponential or sub-exponential way, not super-exponentially or with large jump discontinuities.
* If this is the case, then an AGI whose effective intelligence matched that of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/77xLbXs6vYQuhT8hq/why-ai-may-not-foom |
# Reflection in Probabilistic Logic
Paul Christiano has devised [**a new fundamental approach**](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Christiano-et-al-Naturalistic-reflection-early-draft.pdf) to the "[Löb Problem](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwriJqBZyoM)" wherein [Löb's Theorem](/lw/t6/the_cartoon_gu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/duAkuSqJhGDcfMaTA/reflection-in-probabilistic-logic |
# [LINK] The power of fiction for moral instruction
From Medical Daily: [Psychologists Discover How People Subconsciously Become Their Favorite Fictional Characters](http://www.medicaldaily.com/articles/9878/20120514/book-reading-experience-taking-psychology-character-fiction.htm)
Psychologists have discovered that w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RTXEWrSWLDqReRiKk/link-the-power-of-fiction-for-moral-instruction |
# The cup-holder paradox
I'm shopping for a car, and I've spent many hours this past month reading user reviews of cars. There are seven things American car buyers have cared and complained about consistently for at least the past ten years. In roughly decreasing importance:
* Performance
* Gas mileage
* Frequ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yrx44uF8aBdKuwi5G/the-cup-holder-paradox |
# Soylent Orange - Whole food open source soylent
Update: John Maxwell and I have a startup making nutritionally complete food, [MealSquares](http://www.mealsquares.com) (which is likely better for weightloss see below)
This came up at a meetup a while back. Several people, myself included, expressed frustration wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X6APQeHhXH9mbredM/soylent-orange-whole-food-open-source-soylent |
# Solved Problems Repository
**Follow-up to:** [Boring Advice Repository](/lw/gx5/boring_advice_repository/)
Many practical problems in instrumental rationality appear to be wide open. Two I've been annoyed by recently are "what should I eat?" and "how should I exercise?" However, some appear to be more or less **sol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iTzvJ7kKK2TYJhYHB/solved-problems-repository |
# Schelling Day: A Rationalist Holiday
The Big Idea
------------
—Holidays are awesome.
—Getting to know people is awesome.
—Schelling Day is a holiday about getting to know people.
—The [Boston group](http://www.meetup.com/Cambridge-Less-Wrong-Meetup/) will celebrate Schelling day.
—Hopefully other cities will t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z9Tc3CrZmjTfMc4jj/schelling-day-a-rationalist-holiday |
# Noticing the 5-second mindkill
I've been reading news and a headline popped out at me:
Some Conservative backbenchers stirred up controversy in the House of Commons Tuesday when they accused their own party of preventing them from speaking out in Parliament.
(For the US audience, the Canadian (and British) House o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d7eZPa3PMggf599va/noticing-the-5-second-mindkill |
# Robin Hanson's Cryonics Hour
I'm writing to recommend something awesome to anyone who's recently signed up for cryonics (and to the future self of anyone who's about to do so). Robin Hanson has a longstanding offer that [anyone who's newly signed up for cryonics can have an hour's discussion with him on any topic](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bQN4KcRZXRjhoCnZk/robin-hanson-s-cryonics-hour |
# Drowning In An Information Ocean
**Drowning In An Information Ocean**
I decided to take a look at the books hanging around the Future of Humanity Institute. It is a sobering and sad experience. I'd say there are little less than 2 thousand books.
80% of books I wouldn't mind reading,
1/2 I would read,
1/3 I shou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fRr8625imjoP7FLFs/drowning-in-an-information-ocean |
# LW wiki spam filtering
Long-time readers may have noticed that spam on the wiki has been a very persistent problem for the past 2 years or so; I've been dealing with it so far by hand, but I recently reached a breaking point and asked Trike to resolve it or find a new wiki administrator. (Speaking of which, is anyon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KEekEf6SykdKnk8oQ/lw-wiki-spam-filtering |
# Existential risks open thread
We talk about a wide variety of stuff on LW, but we don't spend much time trying to identify the very highest-utility stuff to discuss and promoting additional discussion of it. This thread is a stab at that. Since it's just comments, you can feel more comfortable bringing up ideas th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k9gSN9yBZn4iwQinG/existential-risks-open-thread |
# A Rational Altruist Punch in The Stomach
[Robin Hanson wrote, five years ago](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/protecting-acro.html):
> Very distant future times are ridiculously easy to help via investment. A 2% annual return adds up to a googol (10^100) return over 12,000 years, even if there is only a 1/1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TYAA4iNCFaDvPD6gB/a-rational-altruist-punch-in-the-stomach |
# Welcome to Less Wrong! (5th thread, March 2013)
If you've recently joined the [Less Wrong community](/lw/1/about_less_wrong), please leave a comment here and introduce yourself. We'd love to know who you are, what you're doing, what you value, [how you came to identify as a rationalist](/lw/2/tell_your_rationalist_o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u3jRwh7uWHvnizGyR/welcome-to-less-wrong-5th-thread-march-2013 |
# The Unintuitive Power Laws of Giving
Why give globally? Why give money? Why health charities? Why single-issue organizations? At first glance these all seem like arbitrary choices: what if I would rather volunteer, or donate to local charities? Why does it matter? It comes down to two distributions: cost-effectivene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zoAWSxj9f26NzcDBj/the-unintuitive-power-laws-of-giving |
# We Don't Have a Utility Function
**Related:** [Pinpointing Utility](/lw/ggm/pinpointing_utility/)
If I ever say "my utility function", you could reasonably accuse me of [cargo-cult](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult_science) rationality; trying to become more rational by superficially immitating the abstract... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kHG7BouAdXh74nZ6j/we-don-t-have-a-utility-function |
# A Call for Constant Vigilance
**Related to:** [What Do We Mean By "Rationality?"](/lw/31/what_do_we_mean_by_rationality/)
Rationality has many facets, both relatively simple and quite complex. As a result, it can often be hard to determine what aspects of rationality you should or shouldn't stress.
An extremely ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eFPkiusrPKW6JBw4h/a-call-for-constant-vigilance |
# [Link] Son of low-hanging fruit
**Related:** [Thick and Thin](/r/discussion/lw/cwk/link_thick_and_thin/), [Loss of local knowledge affecting intellectual trends](/r/discussion/lw/85b/link_loss_of_local_knowledge_affecting/)
An [entry](http://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/04/28/son-of-low-hanging-fruit/) I found in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cw6CpcBfyTyPWH3Ny/link-son-of-low-hanging-fruit |
# Call for help: volunteers needed to proofread MIRI's publications
[MIRI](http://intelligence.org) needs volunteers to proofread our soon-to-be-released publications, such as Eliezer's "Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics." Some reasons to get involved:
* Get a sneak peek at our [publications](http://intelligenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WfB4REtXjJgo6K8Sz/call-for-help-volunteers-needed-to-proofread-miri-s |
# CFAR is hiring a logistics manager
CFAR is hiring an additional logistics manager. Please click on our form for more information, or to fill out an application:
[https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ACTvM1oYsw1zzHMumrLzffCVVak3eA5A-5uJzyIYOKM/viewform](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ACTvM1oYsw1zzHMumrLzffCVVak3eA5A-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SBhHayHFqnPYdAmyX/cfar-is-hiring-a-logistics-manager |
# Intelligence Metrics and Decision Theories
In this article I review a few previously proposed mathematical metrics of general intelligence and propose my own approach. This approach has a peculiar relation to decision theory, different decision theories corresponding to different notions of "maximally intelligent ag... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vPtMSvnF8B5hM5LdL/intelligence-metrics-and-decision-theories |
# [Link] Values Spreading is Often More Important than Extinction Risk
In a [recent essay](http://www.utilitarian-essays.com/values-spreading.html), Brian Tomasik argues that meme-spreading has higher expected utility than x-risk reduction. His analysis assumes a classical utilitarian ethic, but it may be generalizabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nbd4aB24ktozQeHwL/link-values-spreading-is-often-more-important-than |
# What Rate of Return Should You Expect?
If you invest money, perhaps because you want to [give money in the future](/r/discussion/lw/h3q/a_rational_altruist_punch_in_the_stomach/), you want a good estimate of the real rate of return so you can compare it to just giving now. Small differences in this estimate have [ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yt5QiEkaASsA2iYrN/what-rate-of-return-should-you-expect |
# On moving posts from Main to Discussion
Yesterday, someone moved one of my posts from Main to Discussion without telling me. Again.
I encourage the site administrators to show some basic courtesy to the posters who provide the content for the site. I believe this would be a better way of doing things:
1\. Have a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SiEkSaifqyycEn2Be/on-moving-posts-from-main-to-discussion |
# LW Study Group Facebook Page
**Update:** There is now an online sign up to groups with workflowy, based on subject and current ability. You do not have to be signed up to Facebook to join a group, but do add an email address so that the group can contact you: https://workflowy.com/shared/cf1fd9ca-885f-c1b9-c2e8-e3a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oNQnTJSDsMXWZALTD/lw-study-group-facebook-page |
# Willing gamblers, spherical cows, and AIs
_Note: posting this in Main rather than Discussion in light of recent [discussion](/lw/gof/great_rationality_posts_by_lwers_not_posted_to_lw/8h10) that people don't post in Main enough and their reasons for not doing so aren't necessarily good ones. But I suspect I may be re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a7trPRarmwPkZ6d8D/willing-gamblers-spherical-cows-and-ais |
# New applied rationality workshops (April, May, and July)
In the early days of the [Center for Applied Rationality](http://appliedrationality.org/), Anna Salamon and I had a disagreement about whether we were ready to run our first applied rationality workshops in six weeks. My inside view said "No way"; Her inside v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jGuT3LTrGP7GtX3ZQ/new-applied-rationality-workshops-april-may-and-july |
# Explicit and tacit rationality
[Like Eliezer](http://web.archive.org/web/20010205221413/http://sysopmind.com/eliezer.html), I "do my best thinking into a keyboard." It starts with a [burning itch](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Curiosity) to figure something out. I collect ideas and arguments and evidence and source... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NLJ6NyHFZPJ2oNSZ8/explicit-and-tacit-rationality |
# Taking Charity Seriously: Toby Ord talk on charity effectivess
Video: ([youtube](http://youtu.be/iGCVRA7T7FE))
Transcript:
> I'm Toby Ord. I'm here today from Oxford University where I'm a Research Fellow in Philosophy, and also I'm the president of an organization called [Giving What We Can](http://givingwhatweca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iCa9JXAXAuCzuv3DT/taking-charity-seriously-toby-ord-talk-on-charity |
# LW Women Submissions: On Misogyny
Standard Intro
--------------
**The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.**
Several months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There is a LOT of mat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pYnjatHi3dupFgCQe/lw-women-submissions-on-misogyny |
# Post Request Thread
This thread is another experiment roughly in the vein of the [Boring Advice Repository](/lw/gx5/boring_advice_repository/) and the [Solved Problems Repository](/lw/h2m/solved_problems_repository/).
There are some topics I'd like to see more LW posts on, but I feel underqualified to post about th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bTcReSNrW3xSJ6Yrt/post-request-thread |
# Fermi Estimates
Just before the [Trinity test](http://is.gd/NeBfVu), Enrico Fermi decided he wanted a rough estimate of the blast's power before the diagnostic data came in. So he dropped some pieces of paper from his hand as the blast wave passed him, and used this to estimate that the blast was equivalent to 10 ki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsEppdvgRisz5xAHG/fermi-estimates |
# Pay other people to go vegetarian for you?
I [notice](http://www.jefftk.com/news/2012-04-11) that a large fraction of Effective Altruism people are vegetarian. This makes sense: in general Effective Altruists take moral issues seriously, even when that means changing your lifestyle. I'm not sure it's a good [balance... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxqXTzuamd3hZ5nMQ/pay-other-people-to-go-vegetarian-for-you |
# Noisy Poll Results And Reptilian Muslim Climatologists from Mars
**Beware of Phantom Lizardmen**
I have only done a little bit of social science research, but it was enough to make me hate people. One study I helped with analyzed whether people from different countries had different answers on a certain psychologic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CsKrQdQJJCFPjfKjF/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from |
# NES-game playing AI [video link and AI-boxing-related comment]
"Pretty simple" algorithm playing games quite impressively.
[](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOCurBYI_gY)
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOCurBYI_gY](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOCurBYI_gY)
First, this is awesome - enjoy!
Paper here [h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2hyX4AMC7wJq3qBs9/nes-game-playing-ai-video-link-and-ai-boxing-related-comment |
# Worth remembering (when comparing ‘the US’ to ‘Europe’)
I posted the post below on my own blog [a while back](http://econstudentlog.wordpress.com/2011/11/17/worth-remembering-when-comparing-the-us-to-europe/), but a friend of mine suggested that it might be a good idea to cross-post a little bit of my stuff here as ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hifamb4LTgQooDBYj/worth-remembering-when-comparing-the-us-to-europe |
# Reinforcement and Short-Term Rewards as Anti-Akratic
**Related: **[Time and Effort Discounting](/lw/6jw/time_and_effort_discounting/),[Akrasia, Hyperbolic Discounting, and Picoeconomics](/lw/6c/akrasia_hyperbolic_discounting_and_picoeconomics/), [The Power of Reinforcement](/lw/cu2/the_power_of_reinforcement/), [Bas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gne4dR4iec3QkWiyv/reinforcement-and-short-term-rewards-as-anti-akratic |
# Proving Too Much
The fallacy of [Proving Too Much](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proving_too_much) is when you challenge an argument because, in addition to proving its intended conclusion, it also proves obviously false conclusions. For example, if someone says “You can’t be an atheist, because it’s impossible to di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G5eMM3Wp3hbCuKKPE/proving-too-much |
# Grad Student Advice Repository
There was [some support](/r/discussion/lw/h6m/post_request_thread/8qsg) for the idea of starting an advice repository for grad students much in the same tradition as the [Boring Advice Repository](/lw/gx5/boring_advice_repository/) and the [Solved Problems Repository](/lw/h2m/solved_pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iofKNvYKZe3T7MpS/grad-student-advice-repository |
# Four Tips for Public Speaking
_TL;DR, I offered and promised in the [Post Request Thread](/lw/h6m/post_request_thread/8qp0) a guide to the four highest value tips I know for doing public speaking. Here they are, with explanations below:_
1. _**Fortissimo!** Don't apologize for talking_
2. _Know the first and last... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CyYM4DF7XYbKHJ5H7/four-tips-for-public-speaking |
# Help us name the Sequences ebook
_[Quantum Computing Since Democritus](http://www.amazon.com/Quantum-Computing-since-Democritus-Aaronson/dp/0521199565/)_ got me thinking that we may want a more riveting title for _The Sequences, 2006-2009_ ebook we're preparing for release (like the [FtIE ebook](http://intelligencee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hmc2NE6oTipCvuZdN/help-us-name-the-sequences-ebook |
# Time turners, Energy Conservation and General Relativity
This post is a bit of entertainment for scientifically inclined Harry Potter fans.
Time turner from the Harry Potter series (and from the Eliezer Yudkowsky's venerable HPMoR fanfic) is a very useful device if you have some unfinished business in the recent pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RaAPeFxCkvsuqjvJq/time-turners-energy-conservation-and-general-relativity |
# Ritual Report: Schelling Day
On Sunday, April 14th, the Boston group held our first [Schelling Day](/lw/h2t/schelling_day_a_rationalist_holiday/) celebration. The idea was to open up and share our private selves. It was a rousing success.
That doesn't do it justice. Let me try again.
By all the stars, you guys. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qrA2e4n6JqqAoBYzE/ritual-report-schelling-day |
# Cryocrastinating? Send me (or someone else) money!
I know from personal experience how hard it is to actually go through the final process to sign up for cryonics - no matter how theoretically in favour one is. For me, it was Robin Hanson's offer of an [hour](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/my-cryonics-hour.ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pEMhfKn8w2Pr5YgBn/cryocrastinating-send-me-or-someone-else-money |
# Litany of a Bright Dilettante
So, one more litany, hopefully someone else finds it as useful.
It's an understatement that humility is not a common virtue in online discussions, even, or especially when it's most needed.
I'll start with my own recent example. I thought up a clear and obvious objection to one of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SgGYcTmtLMu4rYnY9/litany-of-a-bright-dilettante |
# Being Half-Rational About Pascal's Wager is Even Worse
For so long as I can remember, I have rejected Pascal's Wager in all its forms on sheerly practical grounds: anyone who tries to plan out their life by chasing a 1 in 10,000 chance of a huge payoff is almost certainly doomed in practice. This kind of clever rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ebiCeBHr7At8Yyq9R/being-half-rational-about-pascal-s-wager-is-even-worse |
# Want to have a CFAR instructor visit your LW group?
Cat, who has volunteered extensively at CFAR (and taught at CFAR), will be visiting many cities in Europe over the coming months.
She is awesome.
Also, the list of cities that she is visiting will probably be determined in the next few days.
If you'd like to h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yh6hrJmFZ7FpbDGK8/want-to-have-a-cfar-instructor-visit-your-lw-group |
# LW Women Entries- LW Meetups
Standard Intro
--------------
**The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.**
Several months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There is a LOT of material... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eeuembbW7g4LLw2jt/lw-women-entries-lw-meetups |
# Produce / Consume Ratios
I've been thinking about this a bit recently, and thought I'd do a dump of evidence and conjecture, and see what Less Wrong had to say.
There are lots of areas of life where activities can be partitioned into either producing products or consuming products. For those areas, it may be worthw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2xrm9PmgjD33v37Az/produce-consume-ratios |
# Can somebody explain this to me?: The computability of the laws of physics and hypercomputation
["Hypercomputation"](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercomputation) is a term coined by two philosophers, Jack Copeland and Dianne Proudfoot, to refer to allegedly computational processes that do things Turing machines ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rc2Ymaj8sfaG4Crt8/can-somebody-explain-this-to-me-the-computability-of-the |
# Minor, perspective changing facts
There's a lot of background mess in our mental pictures of the world. We try and be accurate on important issues, but a whole lot of the less important stuff we pick up from the media, the movies, and random impressions. And once these impressions are in our mental pictures, they ju... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nm6zNZmBh55pvoSBS/minor-perspective-changing-facts |
# A thought-process testing opportunity
If you haven't seen the video of a wet towel being wrung out in space yet, it provides a great opportunity to test some basic rationality skills.
Skill #1: Notice the opportunity. (I failed this test. I had a fuzzy, wrong idea about what would happen. I didn't notice the fuzzin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YEczWSoYLiGkGG2eu/a-thought-process-testing-opportunity |
# Normativity and Meta-Philosophy
I find Eliezer's explanation of what "should" means to be [unsatisfactory](/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/19pv), and here's an attempt to do better. Consider the following usages of the word:
1. You should stop building piles of X pebbles because X = Y*Z.
2. We should kil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LPRuP6vdDBTeGnXmC/normativity-and-meta-philosophy |
# Rocket science and big money - a cautionary tale of math gone wrong
The [2006 report](http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ivv/pdf/174321main_Annual_Report_06_Final.pdf) from NASA's "Independent Verification and Validation Facility" makes some interesting claims. Turning to page 6, we learn that thanks to IV&V, "NASA realize... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tggnLEXxrTDWQwDL3/rocket-science-and-big-money-a-cautionary-tale-of-math-gone |
# Tactics against Pascal's Mugging
This is meant as a rough collection of five ideas of mine on potential anti-Pascal Mugging tactics. I don't have much hope that the first three will be any useful at all and am afraid that I'm not mathematically-inclined enough to know if the last two are any good even as a partial s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gjyvXPqvCZPEtCKLB/tactics-against-pascal-s-mugging |
# Google's Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt: apparently a transhumanist
It makes a lot of sense for the Google people to be transhumanist, with Sergey Brin and Larry Page working with the Singularity University, but still I was surprised to hear this on the new Colbert Report (of the 23rd of April):
> Colbert: Can I l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CL3tzXT6g6AuJAWrQ/google-s-executive-chairman-eric-schmidt-apparently-a |
# [LINK] How to calibrate your confidence intervals
In the book "How to Measure Anything" D. Hubbard presents a step-by-step method for calibrating your confidence intervals, which he has tested on hundreds of people, showing that it can make 90% of people almost perfect estimators within half a day of training.
I've... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XBv2onWGRKFtAEMN/link-how-to-calibrate-your-confidence-intervals |
# Real-world examples of money-pumping?
Intransitive preferences are a [demonstrable](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_inconsistency) [characteristic](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_paradox) of human behaviour. So why am I having such trouble coming up with real-world examples of money-pumping?
"Because I'm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kHyJaixCdiZyFRo66/real-world-examples-of-money-pumping |
# Logic in the language of probability
This post is a minor note, to go along with the post on the [probabilistic Löb theorem](/r/discussion/lw/h9k/probabilistic_l%C3%B6b_theorem/). It simply seeks to justify why terms like "having probability 1" are used interchangeably with "provable" and why implications symbols "→... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3atutKpoGAfDe5XFo/logic-in-the-language-of-probability |
# Probabilistic Löb theorem
In this post (based on results from [MIRI](http://intelligence.org/)'s recent workshop), I'll be looking at whether reflective theories of logical uncertainty (such as Paul's [design](/lw/h1k/reflection_in_probabilistic_set_theory/)) still suffer from [Löb's theorem](/lw/t6/the_cartoon_guid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oBDTMnEzptBidvmw7/probabilistic-loeb-theorem |
# Three more ways identity can be a curse
The Buddhists believe that one of the three keys to attaining true happiness is dissolving the illusion of the self. (The other two are dissolving the illusion of permanence, and ceasing the desire that leads to suffering.) I'm not really sure exactly what it means to say "the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eZTTtCSCw9ixEEYw2/three-more-ways-identity-can-be-a-curse |
# LW Women Entries- Creepiness
Standard Intro
--------------
**The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.**
Several months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There is a LOT of material... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aRHLNr62JCbBBkQXD/lw-women-entries-creepiness |
# [LINK] Is it worth the time?
Another gem from [xkcd](http://xkcd.com): [Is It Worth the Time?](http://xkcd.com/1205/) It visually answers the question:
> How long can you work on making a routine task more efficient before you're spending more time than you save?
Of course, he's not the first person to ask this q... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eYQKZ5iYGvgFzrGDh/link-is-it-worth-the-time |
# Privileging the Question
**Related to:** [Privileging the Hypothesis](/lw/19m/privileging_the_hypothesis/)
> Remember the exercises in critical reading you did in school, where you had to look at a piece of writing and step back and ask whether the author was telling the whole truth? If you really want to be a crit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vcxuRHzeM99jYcYd/privileging-the-question |
# Problems in Education
Alright guys. The main complaint of the discussion article was simply "hoax", yelled as loudly or as quietly as the user felt about it. Hopefully this won't get the same treatment.
We have been evaluating educational, grant-funded programs for 20 years. Throughout these years, we have wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DxFFeJoczRp2rPS2K/problems-in-education-0 |
# New report: Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics
**Summary**: [Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics](http://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf) (pdf) is 40,000 words taking some initial steps toward tackling the key quantitative issue in the intelligence explosion, "reinvestable returns on cognitive investments": what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CZQuFoqgPXQawH9aL/new-report-intelligence-explosion-microeconomics |
# Mortal: A Transponyist Fanfiction
I recently published [Mortal](http://www.fimfiction.net/story/95424/mortal), a novella-length My Little Pony fanfiction meant to introduce anti-death concepts to an unfamiliar audience. Short description:
> Twilight Sparkle's friends have lived long and happy lives. Now their time ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLtmtghPeLbpmsFJC/mortal-a-transponyist-fanfiction |
# What do professional philosophers believe, and why?
LessWrong has twice discussed the **[PhilPapers Survey](http://philpapers.org/surveys/)** of professional philosophers' views on thirty controversies in their fields — in [early 2011](/lw/56q/how_would_you_respond_to_the_philpapers_what_are/) and, more intensively,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nm8W6FShTJEMoczix/what-do-professional-philosophers-believe-and-why |
# Developmental Thinking Shout-out to CFAR
**Preamble**
Before I make my main point, I want to acknowledge that _curriculum development is hard_. It's even harder when you're trying to [teach the unteachable](/lw/l/teaching_the_unteachable/). And it's even _harder_ when you're in the process of bootstrapping. I am aw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEkojdqPg2rmMtE3z/developmental-thinking-shout-out-to-cfar |
# Seeking reliable evidence - claim that closing sweatshops leads to child prostitution
I've been looking for reliable evidence of a claim I've heard a few times. The claim is that the closing of sweatshops (by anti-globalization activists) has resulted in many of the child workers becoming prostitutes. The idea is fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o5bpfnT3KkiSKtjB4/seeking-reliable-evidence-claim-that-closing-sweatshops |
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