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# Estimates vs. head-to-head comparisons
(Cross-posted from [my blog](http://www.rationalaltruist.com).)
_Summary: when choosing between two options, it’s not always optimal to estimate the value of each option and then pick the better one._
Suppose I am choosing between two actions, X and Y. One way to make my deci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hF5BykTKazCvy55em/estimates-vs-head-to-head-comparisons |
# LW Women- Female privilege
Daenerys' Note: This is the last item in the LW Women series. Thanks to all who participated. :)
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**The following section will be at the top of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WdQJAfc5DFRtSyBCJ/lw-women-female-privilege |
# [Link] More Right launched
Various people (including [Konkvistador](/user/Konkvistador/overview/) who has been talking about it the most) have launched their blog [More Right](http://www.moreright.net/)
"A group blog, More Right is a place to discuss the many things that are touched by politics that we prefer would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2X6zJwWTrMbf73q5R/link-more-right-launched |
# Antijargon Project
When a group of people talk to each other a lot they develop terms that they can use in place of larger concepts. This makes it easier to talk to people inside the group, but then it's harder to talk about the same ideas with people outside the group. If we were smart enough to keep up fully indep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R6coM4SgNTu5uwHLD/antijargon-project |
# Maximizing Your Donations via a Job
In November of 2012 I set a goal for myself: find the most x-risk reducing role I can fill. At first I thought it would be by working directly with [MIRI](http://intelligence.org/), but after a while it became clear that I could contribute more by simply donating. So my goal becam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z6dmoLyfBdmo6HEss/maximizing-your-donations-via-a-job |
# Pascal's Muggle (short version)
**Shortened version of**: [Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence](/lw/h8k/pascals_muggle_infinitesimal_priors_and_strong/)
One proposal which has been floated for dealing with Pascal's Mugger is to penalize hypotheses that let you affect a large number of people... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KDzXTWSTg8ArwbhRR/pascal-s-muggle-short-version |
# Using Evolution for Marriage or Sex
Returned to original title, for the good reasons [given here](/lw/con/the_rational_rationalists_guide_to_rationally/)
There was a [recent post](/lw/fmw/lw_women_entries_creepiness/) in Discussion which at time of this writing held staggering 454 commentaries, which inclined me t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oFMywHmJffsCSDNB7/using-evolution-for-marriage-or-sex |
# Be Nice to Non-Rationalists
Note: I have no intention of criticizing the person involved. I admire that (s)he made the "right" decision in the end (in my opinion), and I mention it only as an example we could all learn from. I did request permission to use his/her anecdote here. I'll also use the pronoun "he" when r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xsZgGjW4ARQLrA2Q8/be-nice-to-non-rationalists |
# Catching Up With the Present From the Developing World
Hi all, I'm leaving Lesswrong for a few months to pursue a Masters, and this Text below will never be finished. It is just a story of what is it like to grow up outside where everything is going on, a country where humanities are sad and terrible, and people are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qg7pMzgeTPpG2MSsa/catching-up-with-the-present-from-the-developing-world |
# Googling is the first step. Consider adding scholarly searches to your arsenal.
**Related to: **[Scholarship: How to Do It Efficiently](/lw/5me/scholarship_how_to_do_it_efficiently/)
[There](/r/discussion/lw/hcx/use_search_engines_early_and_often/) [has](/r/discussion/lw/h3w/open_thread_april_115_2013/8p3q) been a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AkkGf7KSBQ7ZZxYk9/googling-is-the-first-step-consider-adding-scholarly |
# Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence
**Followup to:** [Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities](/lw/kd/pascals_mugging_tiny_probabilities_of_vast/), [The Pascal's Wager Fallacy Fallacy](/lw/z0/the_pascals_wager_fallacy_fallacy/), [Being Half-Rational About Pascal's Wager Is Even ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ap4KfkHyxjYPDiqh2/pascal-s-muggle-infinitesimal-priors-and-strong-evidence |
# Justifiable Erroneous Scientific Pessimism
In an erratum to my previous post on Pascalian wagers, it has been plausibly argued to me that _all_ the roads to nuclear weapons, including plutonium production from U-238, may have bottlenecked through the presence of significant amounts of Earthly U235 (apparently even t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HCCfKCrxxHoTCincF/justifiable-erroneous-scientific-pessimism |
# Wikifying the blog list
Konkvistador's excellent [List of Blogs by LWers](/lw/d8t/blogs_by_lwers/) led me to some of my favorite blogs, but is pretty well hidden and gradually becoming obsolete. In order to create an easily-update-able replacement, I have created the wiki page [List of Blogs](http://wiki.lesswrong.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PeTL97v92LxRJBsrM/wikifying-the-blog-list |
# Keeping Choices Donation Neutral
Every dollar I spend on myself is a dollar that could go much farther if spent on other people. I can give someone else a year of healthy life for about $50 \[1\] and there's no way $50 can do anywhere near that much to help me. I could go through my life constantly [weighing every p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GaS8KBTH8s7prz8bw/keeping-choices-donation-neutral |
# LW Study Hall - 2 Month Update
_Comment reposted from [(link)](/lw/gwo/coworking_collaboration_to_combat_akrasia/) for exposure_
Two months have passed and I’m glad to say the [LW Study Hall on tinychat](http://tinychat.com/lesswrong) is still active and alive. Since judging from the comments it kind of looks like ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2huJTJ2Fs9qbw3xR7/lw-study-hall-2-month-update |
# Unlimited Pomodoro Works: My Scheduling System
**Related:** [The Power of Pomodoros](/lw/gp4/the_power_of_pomodoros/), [Working Hurts Less Than Procrastinating](/lw/3kv/working_hurts_less_than_procrastinating_we_fear/), [Cached Procrastination](/lw/d2/cached_procrastination/)
**Follow-up To:** [Reinforcement and Sh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Szwofei5zbYAmf2TW/unlimited-pomodoro-works-my-scheduling-system |
# The autopilot problem: driving without experience
Consider a mixed system, in which an automated system is paired with a human overseer. The automated system handles most of the routine tasks, while the overseer is tasked with looking out for errors and taking over in extreme or unpredictable circumstances. Examples... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oGpcimKtzmg4narKK/the-autopilot-problem-driving-without-experience |
# The Power of Pomodoros
Until recently, I hadn't paid much attention to [Pomodoro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pomodoro_Technique), though I've heard of it for a few years now. "Uncle Bob" Martin seemed to like it, and he's usually worth paying attention to in such matters. However, it mostly seemed to me like a wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4iLk2rxTguFqHHs3Y/the-power-of-pomodoros |
# How to Build a Community
I've noticed that quite a few people are interested in fostering communities -- both creating communities and improving them to make them work together. But how do we go about actually doing this? What's there to community that we can foster and build upon? What makes a community thrive, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87GCpuFr8ywGqqXkP/how-to-build-a-community |
# Kevin Drum's Article about AI and Technology
Kevin Drum has an [article in Mother Jones](http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation) about AI and Moore's Law:
> THIS IS A STORY ABOUT THE FUTURE. Not the unhappy future, the one where climate change turns the planet into a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2t8NsSSRuNWw39TPB/kevin-drum-s-article-about-ai-and-technology |
# Post ridiculous munchkin ideas!
[Thus spake Eliezer](/lw/5c0/epistle_to_the_new_york_less_wrongians/):
> A Munchkin is the sort of person who, faced with a role-playing game, reads through the rulebooks over and over until he finds a way to combine three innocuous-seeming magical items into a cycle of infinite _wis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RJ3xFupXJKB8vE4q/post-ridiculous-munchkin-ideas |
# Why is it rational to invest in retirement? I don't get it.
I know I said I'd be gone... but this was just a comment originally, and I noticed it may actually be relevant.
Elharo [said in Munchkin Ideas](/lw/h9b/post_ridiculous_munchkin_ideas/8zkf):
> Put as much money as you can afford into tax advantaged retire... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DBajPuTRK9x26jrvh/why-is-it-rational-to-invest-in-retirement-i-don-t-get-it |
# 10-Step Anti-Procrastination Checklist
Despite recent strides in my productivity habits, I still catch myself procrastinating at work more often than I'd like. It's not that I make a conscious decision to put off a project; it just feels as though I wake up 20 minutes later and realize that nothing got accomplished... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/585XAc2C4RfHvYKNq/10-step-anti-procrastination-checklist |
# To Inspire People to Give, Be Public About Your Giving
Many people think it would be nicer if people were to give more money to non-profits, especially effective ones. However, for most people, it doesn't even occur to them that they giving a large share of their salary to charity is something that people actually ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N6FNkxMJpraMLTPwq/to-inspire-people-to-give-be-public-about-your-giving |
# The flawed Turing test: language, understanding, and partial p-zombies
There is a problem with the Turing test, practically and philosophically, and I would be willing to bet that the first entity to pass the test will not be conscious, or intelligent, or have whatever spark or quality the test is supposed to measur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/er6G2DdzevvfdZWtg/the-flawed-turing-test-language-understanding-and-partial-p |
# Education control?
I'm reading [_Nurture Shock_](http://amzn.to/13BemZJ) by Po Bronson & Ashley Merryman. Several things in the book, esp. the chapter on "Tools of the Mind", an intriguing education program, suggest that our education of young children not only isn't very good even when evaluated using tests that th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yYuon4QuxKn4iDq7h/education-control |
# [Paper] On the 'Simulation Argument' and Selective Scepticism
Jonathan Birch recently [published](http://philpapers.org/rec/BIROTS) an interesting critique of Bostrom's simulation argument. Here's the abstract:
> Nick Bostrom’s ‘Simulation Argument’ purports to show that, unless we are confident that advanced ‘pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bk9natf6bywLYTxsv/paper-on-the-simulation-argument-and-selective-scepticism |
# Epistemic and Instrumental Tradeoffs
**Related:** [What Do We Mean By "Rationality?"](/lw/31/what_do_we_mean_by_rationality/)
[Epistemic rationality](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality#Epistemic_rationality) and [instrumental rationality](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality#Instrumental_rationality) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hZud7CxcEqfYTL7YX/epistemic-and-instrumental-tradeoffs |
# Terminology suggestion: Say "degrees utility" instead of "utils" to prompt affine thinking
[A common mistake people make with utility functions is taking individual utility numbers as meaningful](/lw/ggm/pinpointing_utility/), and performing operations such as adding them or doubling them. But utility functions are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qgCkkkCrDz8qWiPZn/terminology-suggestion-say-degrees-utility-instead-of-utils |
# [TED Talk] Peter Singer on Effective Altruism
[http://www.ted.com/talks/peter\_singer\_the\_why\_and\_how\_of\_effective\_altruism.html](http://www.ted.com/talks/peter_singer_the_why_and_how_of_effective_altruism.html)
> If you're lucky enough to live without want, it's a natural impulse to be altruistic to others.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vLgGjmzfzaZZxnykE/ted-talk-peter-singer-on-effective-altruism |
# [LINK] Soylent crowdfunding
[Rob Rhinehart](http://robrhinehart.com/)'s food replacement [Soylent](https://campaign.soylent.me/soylent-free-your-body) now has a crowdfunding campaign.
> Soylent frees you from the time and money spent shopping, cooking and cleaning, puts you in excellent health, and vastly reduces y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vp3bRZdfkbHvnsC5j/link-soylent-crowdfunding |
# Potential Impacts of Climate Change
According to [a recent press release](http://www.law.berkeley.edu/14906.htm) from UC Berkeley’s School of Law:
> _Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change_ predicts a grim future for billions of people in this century. It is a factual account of a staggering toll, based on ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9qgQWEauLGuPwuYPh/potential-impacts-of-climate-change |
# Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence
What follows is a rough outline for a possible rational financial planning sequence that was inspired by some other [recent](/lw/h9b/post_ridiculous_munchkin_ideas/8zkf) [discussion](/lw/hfw/why_is_it_rational_to_invest_in_retirement_i_dont/) here. I'm not sure ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uJ7gdQ8ZRnn9M9zTE/preparing-for-a-rational-financial-planning-sequence |
# [link] Are All Dictator Game Results Artifacts?
[http://www.epjournal.net/blog/2013/05/are-all-dictator-game-results-artifacts/](http://www.epjournal.net/blog/2013/05/are-all-dictator-game-results-artifacts/)
> You walk into a laboratory, and you read a set of instructions that tell you that your task is to decide ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g8mLJEYzCxLfi7pPg/link-are-all-dictator-game-results-artifacts |
# Maximizing Financial Utility and Frugality
The past few days have seen an increase of chatter concerning retirement and financial planning. One of us is even putting out a prospectus for a rational financial planning sequence. Some others have derided the concept of saving for retirement, as there is a probability o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iqvYGEmMHhFSEcfTr/maximizing-financial-utility-and-frugality |
# Problems with Academia and the Rising Sea
**Severe problems with the biomedical research process**
GiveWell has recently been investigating ways to improve biomedical research. When I discovered GiveWell's research I was shocked by how severe and comprehensive the problems with the field seem to be:
From a [conver... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbqCJ98ZYzpSig6M7/problems-with-academia-and-the-rising-sea |
# Orwell and fictional evidence for dictatorship stability
> "If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—**forever**."
> George Orwell (Eric Arthur Blair), Nineteen Eighty-Four
Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four is brilliant, terrifying and useful. It's been at its best fighting against... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/73GboJqDCk6nBd2py/orwell-and-fictional-evidence-for-dictatorship-stability |
# Robustness of Cost-Effectiveness Estimates and Philanthropy
**Note:**I formerly worked as a research analyst at [GiveWell](http://www.givewell.org/). This post describes the evolution of my thinking about robustness of cost-effectiveness estimates in philanthropy. All views expressed here are my own.
Up until 2012,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rNuBzyWkigrf6BWg7/robustness-of-cost-effectiveness-estimates-and-philanthropy |
# Being Foreign and Being Sane
I've been reading Less Wrong for a while now, and have recently been casting about for suitable topics to write on. I've decided to break the ice now with an essay on what living and working abroad in Korea has taught me which carries over into studying rationality. While more persona... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RgKAFasnPmPZ2kBps/being-foreign-and-being-sane |
# Mathematicians and the Prevention of Recessions
**Note:** I completed a PhD in Mathematics from University of Illinois under the direction of Nathan Dunfield in 2011. I worked as a research analyst at GiveWell from April 2012 to May 2013. All views expressed here are my own.
**About this post:** I've long been inte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CbsYTQS8YNEWTWdM3/mathematicians-and-the-prevention-of-recessions |
# Be a little bit more trusting than most people think sensible
I am just working on a list of rationalist rules I live by, and this is the one I have most confidence in, so it seems a good topic for my first ever post (which will be short as I have to be on a train in 15)
Since people routinely exaggerate risk, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nutHTZKyzkHkxXT5A/be-a-little-bit-more-trusting-than-most-people-think |
# Collecting expressions of interest in a rationality conference in August
On the principle of organising events that I want to attend myself, I would very much like to organise a rationality conference/convention in the UK. I organise events for a living; in addition, in my free time I've organised five ~200 person w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R4Fmiw3BuLeRkr4Y9/collecting-expressions-of-interest-in-a-rationality |
# Research is polygamous! The importance of what you do needn't be proportional to your awesomeness
In a recent discussion a friend was telling me how he felt he was not as smart as the people he thinks are doing the best research on the most important topics. He said a few jaw-dropping names, which indeed are smarte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tvRYLsJXkmsD58ECr/research-is-polygamous-the-importance-of-what-you-do-needn-t |
# A Proposed Adjustment to the Astronomical Waste Argument
This article has been [cross-posted](http://effective-altruism.com/node/30) at [http://effective-altruism.com/](http://effective-altruism.com/).
An _existential risk_ is a risk “that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5czcpvqZ4RH7orcAa/a-proposed-adjustment-to-the-astronomical-waste-argument |
# The Centre for Applied Rationality: a year later from a (somewhat) outside perspective
I recently had the privilege of being a CFAR alumni volunteering at a later workshop, which is a fascinating thing to do, and put me in a position both to evaluate how much of a difference the first workshop actually made in my l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zqqQDtsWGpXN3wBLZ/the-centre-for-applied-rationality-a-year-later-from-a |
# [LINK] Bets do not (necessarily) reveal beliefs
When does a bet fail to reveal your true beliefs? When it hedges a risk in your portfolio.
If this claim does not immediately strike you as obviously true, you may benefit from reading [this post](http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.ca/2013/05/bets-do-not-necessarily-revea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ts4KmAR8aJoGMawLb/link-bets-do-not-necessarily-reveal-beliefs |
# Transhumanist Fables
Once upon a time there were three little pigs who went out into the world to build their houses. The first pig was very lazy and built his house out of straw. The second pig was a little harder-working and built his house out of sticks. The third pig was the hardest-working of all, and built his... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AYbhqi65SWzHzy7Xx/transhumanist-fables |
# Finding interesting communities
diegocaleiro said this in [Research is Polygamous](/r/discussion/lw/hj5/research_is_polygamous_the_importance_of_what_you/ "Research is Polygamous"):
> Being in an area where the most awesome people are is not asking to "lose the game" it is being in an environment that [cultivates g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/669f2a8MmPiAhNc8A/finding-interesting-communities |
# "disfluency" research
[Adam Alter lists some evidence](http://edge.org/conversation/disfluency) from people who study the effects of "disfluency" (unfamiliarity, or lack of clarity), which somewhat surprisingly leads to greater depth of thought (while you're expending the energy to understand something, you can't he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FQ3tWoZEf4jBq5GEq/disfluency-research |
# The Paucity of Elites Online
Something that's caught my attention over the past few months is that out of the strongest thinkers who I'm familiar with, a very low proportion record their informal ideas online, and discuss their thoughts in the public domain.
The domain that I'm most familiar with is pure math, so ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dugN5SjSvoCgXgmbh/the-paucity-of-elites-online |
# Curriculum suggestions for someone looking to teach themselves contemporary philosophy
Hello LessWrong,
I just (finally) finished _Good and Real_, by Gary Drescher. It was a very stimulating read, and I'd like to continue learning philosophy on my own. However, I'm running into a bootstrapping problem. I don't know... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lr9v6fRbyvjELvRRu/curriculum-suggestions-for-someone-looking-to-teach |
# Optimizing for attractiveness
I want to spend a substantial fraction of my time optimizing myself in the direction of being more attractive to females, and I'd really appreciate your suggestions on how to do so.
**Why**
It should be pretty self-explanatory, but in case you're wondering: relationships are a big par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zfzDnCqfDbqJEGK5A/optimizing-for-attractiveness |
# Great big ocean waves in an even bigger blank spot
[The Wave: In Pursuit of the Rogues, Freaks, and Giants of the Ocean](http://www.amazon.com/The-Wave-Pursuit-Rogues-Freaks/dp/0767928857) is a book about very big ocean waves-- the science, the danger (mostly to ships), and the surfers.
Really big waves weren't sci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KiWd6qwnShvkvdg3r/great-big-ocean-waves-in-an-even-bigger-blank-spot |
# [link] Join Wall Street. Save the World
A very interesting [article](http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=9f37ca02a1e3cbd4f3d0a3618a39fbca&loc=http%3A%2F%2Flesswrong.com%2Flw%2Fhlb%2Flink_join_wall_street_save_the_world%2F%23comments&v=1&libId=7d92491c-7032-4bbe-9ad0-bf75a00c7fe5&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AmrhcWmLEn44nWYz5/link-join-wall-street-save-the-world |
# Will the world's elites navigate the creation of AI just fine?
One open question in AI risk strategy is: Can we trust the world's elite decision-makers (hereafter "elites") to navigate the creation of human-level AI (and beyond) just fine, without the kinds of special efforts that e.g. Bostrom and Yudkowsky think ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ba8LNjWKDF5nrn9Q6/will-the-world-s-elites-navigate-the-creation-of-ai-just |
# A disclaimer about my effective philanthropy posts (in connection with astronomical waste)
My recent posts [Robustness of Cost-Effectiveness and Effective Philanthropy](/lw/hif/robustness_of_costeffectiveness_estimates_and/) and [Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited](/lw/hjn/earning_to_give_vs_altr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CNJvzT95djvHedXEh/a-disclaimer-about-my-effective-philanthropy-posts-in |
# Two Weeks of Meditation can Reduce Mind Wandering and Improve Mental Performance.
There are any [number](/lw/5h9/meditation_insight_and_rationality_part_1_of_3/) of [reasons](/lw/5jj/meditation_insight_and_rationality_part_2_of_3/) why the Less Wrong crowd might be [interested](/lw/2w5/vipassana_meditation_developi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ekziTH4Jko7Q6v4tk/two-weeks-of-meditation-can-reduce-mind-wandering-and |
# Reductionism sequence now available in audio format
The sequence "[Reductionism](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Reductionism_(sequence))", which includes the subsequences "[Joy in the Merely Real](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Joy_in_the_Merely_Real)" and "[Zombies](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Zombies_(sequence)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/maD47ddQfiBCuFxrr/reductionism-sequence-now-available-in-audio-format |
# Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited
A commonly voiced sentiment in the effective altruist community is that the best way to do the most good is generally to make as much money as possible, with a view toward donating to the most cost-effective charities. This is often referred to as “earning to gi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Ss29ihXsBb8tuoxK/earning-to-give-vs-altruistic-career-choice-revisited |
# The Use of Many Independent Lines of Evidence: The Basel Problem
This post describes how one can use many independent arguments to justifiably develop very high confidence in the truth of a statement. It ends with a case study: Euler’s use of several independent lines of evidence to develop confidence in the validit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WsmnfWTP28dXCKEy8/the-use-of-many-independent-lines-of-evidence-the-basel |
# Many Weak Arguments vs. One Relatively Strong Argument
My epistemic framework has recently undergone some major shifts, and I believe that my current epistemic framework is better than my previous one. In the past, I tended to try to discover and rely on a **single relatively strong argument** in favor or against a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9W9P2snxu5Px746LD/many-weak-arguments-vs-one-relatively-strong-argument |
# Other prespective on resolving the Prisoner's dilemma
Sometimes I see new ideas that, without offering any new information, offers a new perspective on old information, and a new way of thinking about an old problem. So it is with [this lecture](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFqmmzYVVJM) and the [prisoner's dilemma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pB9KZH7zvtQwjgJXa/other-prespective-on-resolving-the-prisoner-s-dilemma |
# Applied art of rationality: Richard Feynman steelmanning his mother's concerns
First, imagine your parents disapproving of your first love. Imagine your mother inventing a whole whack of reasons why you shouldn't marry him/her. Now imagine being rational enough to acknowledge and address all her concerns while remai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grszrDa6JZSZwyGLG/applied-art-of-rationality-richard-feynman-steelmanning-his |
# [link] The Economics of Social Status
[http://www.meltingasphalt.com/the-economics-of-social-status/](http://www.meltingasphalt.com/the-economics-of-social-status/)
Discusses a number of aspects of social status, including the "social status as currency" concept that Morendil and I [previously wrote about](/lw/2g6/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jXoiEkNKpBMP82RRA/link-the-economics-of-social-status |
# Mahatma Armstrong: CEVed to death.
My main objection to [Coherent Extrapolated Volition](http://intelligence.org/files/CEV.pdf) (CEV) is the "Extrapolated" part. I don't see any reason to trust the extrapolated volition of humanity - but this isn't just for self centred reasons. I don't see any reason to trust my ow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vgFvnr7FefZ3s3tHp/mahatma-armstrong-ceved-to-death |
# CFAR workshop, June 15th, Salt Lake City UT
CFAR is experimenting with a mobile workshop, so we can bring our material to people who can't make it to Berkeley. So, next week, we're running a one-and-a-half day workshop in Salt Lake City, Utah!
**Workshop Details**
On Saturday June 15th, CFAR will be running a wor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rKX5f6EWcENhiuttG/cfar-workshop-june-15th-salt-lake-city-ut |
# Many Weak Arguments and the Typical Mind
In my [previous post](/lw/hmb/many_weak_arguments_vs_one_relatively_strong/), I advanced the view that discovering and using many weak arguments generally produces better predictive models for answering questions about the human world than discovering and using a single relat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8DHqN85vab54LjLrM/many-weak-arguments-and-the-typical-mind |
# Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI (OPFAI #2)
An early draft of publication #2 in the Open Problems in Friendly AI series is now available: [Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI, and the Lobian Obstacle](http://intelligence.org/files/TilingAgents.pdf). ~20,000 words, aimed at mathematicians or the highly mathemati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gnxDNEtkEo3sfeyPn/tiling-agents-for-self-modifying-ai-opfai-2 |
# Prisoner's Dilemma (with visible source code) Tournament
After the [iterated prisoner's dilemma tournament](/lw/7f2/prisoners_dilemma_tournament_results/) organized by prase two years ago, there was discussion of running tournaments for several variants, including one in which two players submit programs, each of wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BY8kvyuLzMZJkwTHL/prisoner-s-dilemma-with-visible-source-code-tournament |
# Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma
I'm proud to announce the preprint of [Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma: Program Equilibrium via Provability Logic](http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.5577), a joint paper with Mihaly Barasz, Paul Christiano, Benja Fallenstein, Marcello Herreshoff, Patrick LaVictoire (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iQWk5jYeDg5ACCmpx/robust-cooperation-in-the-prisoner-s-dilemma |
# Anticipating critical transitions
(Mathematicians may find this post painfully obvious.)
I read an interesting [puzzle](http://www.thebigquestions.com/2010/12/21/are-you-smarter-than-google/) on Stephen Landsburg's blog that generated a lot of disagreement. Stephen offered to bet anyone $15,000 that the average res... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pBd9ZsdfKBBN8qdR5/anticipating-critical-transitions |
# All Debates Are Bravery Debates
“_I don’t practice what I preach because I’m not the kind of person I’m preaching to._”
— Bob Dobbs
**I.**
I read Atlas Shrugged probably about a decade ago, and felt turned off by its promotion of selfishness as a moral ideal. I thought that was basically just being a jerk. After ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQ3nutgxfTgvq69Xt/all-debates-are-bravery-debates |
# Useful Concepts Repository
**See also:** [Boring Advice Repository](/lw/gx5/boring_advice_repository/), [Solved Problems Repository](/lw/h2m/solved_problems_repository/), [Grad Student Advice Repository](/lw/h7d/grad_student_advice_repository/)
I often find that my understanding of the world is strongly informed by... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/umzNiYpHLypdcXuEf/useful-concepts-repository |
# Weak evidence that eating vegetables makes you live longer
People vary in how much they can taste bitter things. If you go around giving people the chemical Phenylthiocarbamide (PTC), which you shouldn't do, because it is toxic, you'll find that some people taste it as a strongly bitter while others can't taste it a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iXhdLqZ7JWoQeH7oc/weak-evidence-that-eating-vegetables-makes-you-live-longer |
# [link] Scott Aaronson on free will
Scott Aaronson has a new 85 page essay up, titled ["The Ghost in the Quantum Turing Machine"](http://arxiv.org/pdf/1306.0159.pdf). ([Abstract here](http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.0159).) In Section 2.11 (Singulatarianism) he explicitly mentions Eliezer as an influence. But that's just a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uNn4kRYCat9oqKsGT/link-scott-aaronson-on-free-will |
# A personal history of involvement with effective altruism
Over the coming weeks, I intend to write up a history of the different parts of the effective altruist movement and their interrelations. It’s natural to start with the part that I know best: the history of my own involvement with effective altruism.
Interes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QSHwKqyY4GAXKi9tX/a-personal-history-of-involvement-with-effective-altruism |
# Life hack request: I want to want to work.
I have a master's project I'm having trouble working on. It's something I've wanted to do, and I even started working on, long before I started my master's degree. If I can't even enjoy that, then I'm doomed to spend eight hours a day doing something I hate for the rest of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tFDhrtK8Q22kjBPex/life-hack-request-i-want-to-want-to-work |
# How can I strategically write a complex bestseller? (4HS001)
> “Find out the reason that commands you to write; see whether it has spread its roots into the very depth of your heart; confess to yourself you would have to die if you were forbidden to write.”
>
> \- Rainer Maria Rilke
> “Tomorrow may be hell, but t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dGkAL4PbihR2CvRfA/how-can-i-strategically-write-a-complex-bestseller-4hs001 |
# Effective Altruism Through Advertising Vegetarianism?
> **Abstract:** If you value the welfare of nonhuman animals from a consequentialist perspective, there is a lot of potential for reducing suffering by funding the persuasion of people to go vegetarian through either online ads or pamphlets. In this essay, I dev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grP8nTMWm67RbKZwg/effective-altruism-through-advertising-vegetarianism |
# Do Earths with slower economic growth have a better chance at FAI?
I was raised as a good and proper child of the Enlightenment who grew up reading _The Incredible Bread Machine_ and _A Step Farther Out,_ taking for granted that economic growth was a huge in-practice component of human utility (plausibly the majorit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FS6NCWzzP8DHp4aD4/do-earths-with-slower-economic-growth-have-a-better-chance |
# After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you
In general and across all instances I can think of so far, I do not agree with the part of your futurological forecast in which you reason, "After event W happens, everyone will see the truth of proposition X, leading them to endorse Y and agree with me ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LNKh22Crr5ujT85YM/after-critical-event-w-happens-they-still-won-t-believe-you |
# Near-Term Risk: Killer Robots a Threat to Freedom and Democracy
A new TED talk video just came out by Daniel Suarez, author of Daemon, explaining how autonomous combat drones with a capability called "lethal autonomy" pose a threat to democracy. Lethal autonomy is what it sounds like - the ability of a robot to kil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fyZZxaqq93LhQFAQp/near-term-risk-killer-robots-a-threat-to-freedom-and |
# How should Eliezer and Nick's extra $20 be split
In "[Principles of Disagreement](/lw/qw/principles_of_disagreement/ "Principles of DIsagrement")," Eliezer Yudkowsky shared the following anecdote:
> Nick Bostrom and I once took a taxi and split the fare. When we counted the money we'd assembled to pay the driver,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NHFFzBF4b3SZLHckt/how-should-eliezer-and-nick-s-extra-usd20-be-split |
# The Virtue of Silence
Leah Libresco writes a couple of essays ([1](http://www.patheos.com/blogs/unequallyyoked/2013/06/a-terrible-consequence-of-consequentialism.html), [2](http://www.patheos.com/blogs/unequallyyoked/2013/06/a-dicey-way-out-of-dilemmas.html)) on an ethical dilemma reported in the New York Times. In ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2brqzQWfmNx5Agdrx/the-virtue-of-silence |
# Elites and AI: Stated Opinions
Previously, I asked "[Will the world's elites navigate the creation of AI just fine?](/lw/hlc/will_the_worlds_elites_navigate_the_creation_of/)" My current answer is "probably not," but I think it's a question worth additional investigation.
As a preliminary step, and with the help of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ToNNGwqNS5kecZaNQ/elites-and-ai-stated-opinions |
# How to Write Deep Characters
Triggered by: [Future Story Status](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2013/06/future-story-status.html)
A helpful key to understanding the art and technique of character in storytelling, is to consider the folk-psychological notion from Internal Family Systems of people being composed of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kBADRoen6u7BbJmD2/how-to-write-deep-characters |
# Quotes and Notes on Scott Aaronson’s "The Ghost in the Quantum Turing Machine"
[This highly speculative paper](http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.0159) has been discussed here [before](/r/discussion/lw/hok/link_scott_aaronson_on_free_will/), but I found the discussion's quality rather disappointing. People generally took bit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NnzYPN7mHDQ7hpeTc/quotes-and-notes-on-scott-aaronson-s-the-ghost-in-the |
# Learning programming: so I've learned the basics of Python, what next?
Lots of people (particularly people associated with LessWrong) are telling me I should become a computer programmer; in response I've taught myself a little Python using [this site](http://cscircles.cemc.uwaterloo.ca/), written a couple Python sc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dPnyk6HG3fRpstQ4d/learning-programming-so-i-ve-learned-the-basics-of-python |
# Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb?
Follow-up to: [Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem](/r/discussion/lw/hpy/normative_uncertainty_in_newcombs_problem/)
**Philosophers and atheists break for two-boxing; theists and Less Wrong break for one-boxing**
Personally, I w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5vmRXMxFLvSe2a9CM/why-do-theists-undergrads-and-less-wrongers-favor-one-boxing |
# Initial Thoughts on Personally Finding a High-Impact Career
As I mentioned in [my strategic plan](http://www.everydayutilitarian.com/essays/my-strategic-plan), **I have 10 months and 28 days until I graduate** from Denison University and hopefully will be transitioning to a _career_. Careers are important because h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kR2tgaZgDjBSoTAS4/initial-thoughts-on-personally-finding-a-high-impact-career |
# Some reservations about Singer's child-in-the-pond argument
Peter Singer is one of the most influential philosophers, and is a strong candidate for being the person who has helped the effective altruist community the most.
In the past, Peter Singer often argued that \[the moral obligation to rush into a shallow pon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M8zgMmNCfpQxaKo8Y/some-reservations-about-singer-s-child-in-the-pond-argument |
# How would not having free will feel to you?
Given the spike in free-will debates on LW recently (blame Scott Aaronson), and the usual potentially answerable meta-question "Why do we think we have free will?", I am intrigued by a sub-question, "what would it feel like to have/not have free will?". The positive versio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/twSoQPEwtyBwCSw7A/how-would-not-having-free-will-feel-to-you |
# For FAI: Is "Molecular Nanotechnology" putting our best foot forward?
Molecular nanotechnology, or MNT for those of you who love acronyms, seems to be a fairly common trope on LW and related literature. It's not really clear to me why. In many of the examples of "How could AI's help us" or "How could AI's rise to po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9JKdnAakjCtvxTReJ/for-fai-is-molecular-nanotechnology-putting-our-best-foot |
# Start Under the Streetlight, then Push into the Shadows
See also: [Hack Away at the Edges](/lw/8ns/hack_away_at_the_edges/).
### The streetlight effect
You've heard [the joke](http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/201... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hRAzDwwMuu8CZSTvN/start-under-the-streetlight-then-push-into-the-shadows |
# Suggestions for Rationality Blogs in the Sidebar
I'm spending the summer working to update lesswrong, and one of the changes we're looking to implement is changing the "New on Overcoming Bias" part of the sidebar to a more general "New on Rationality Blogs". What blogs would you like to see represented? | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5BoPvMtqDP9hYhZcp/suggestions-for-rationality-blogs-in-the-sidebar |
# How to Have Space Correctly
\[NOTE: _This post has undergone substantial revisions following feedback in the comments section. The basic complaint was that it was too airy and light on concrete examples and recommendations. So I've [said oops](/lw/i9/the_importance_of_saying_oops/), applied the [virtue of narrowne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uWDGzJME8FmnzrMgm/how-to-have-space-correctly |
# Bad Concepts Repository
We recently established a successful [Useful Concepts Repository](/lw/hhl/useful_concepts_repository/ "Useful Concepts Repository"). It got me thinking about all the useless or actively harmful concepts I had carried around for in some cases most of my life before seeing them for what they w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcMjekC7yDTBzKCij/bad-concepts-repository |
# James Martin's death
From the [Martin School website](http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/):
Dr James Martin 1933 - 2013
It is with great sadness that the Oxford Martin School has learned of the death of our Founder, Dr James Martin.
Jame... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YyHgrvRxTZX8esbzD/james-martin-s-death |
# Public Service Announcement Collection
P/S/A: There are single sentences which can create life-changing amounts of difference.
* P/S/A: If you're not sure whether or not you've ever had an orgasm, it means you haven't had one, a condition known as [primary anorgasmia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anorgasmia) wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MxHQr33zRmozjmJzD/public-service-announcement-collection |
# [META] Make poll results accessible to people who have not voted
As far as I can see, the only way to see the results of a poll is to vote in it. If for whatever reason I don't want to participate in a poll whose results I am interested in, I vote randomly. Of the ~10 other LWers I know, at least 2 do the same. For ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nGHY8a29HfdnsPX3c/meta-make-poll-results-accessible-to-people-who-have-not |
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