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# Common failure modes in habit formation
> In one project, 256 members of a health-insurance plan were invited to classes stressing the importance of exercise. Half the participants received an extra lesson on the theories of habit formation (the structure of the habit loop) and were asked to identify cues and reward... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PYgGpmmk3wQhSt6Yv/common-failure-modes-in-habit-formation |
# Vacancy at the Future of Humanity Institute: Academic Project Manager
The Future of Humanity Institute* recently secured funding for a new Research Collaboration with Amlin Insurance focusing on systemic risks associated with risk modelling. We're looking for someone with an academic background or interests and mana... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hGagTXWgYkdfhmm6t/vacancy-at-the-future-of-humanity-institute-academic-project |
# How probable is Molecular Nanotech?
Circa a week ago I [posted](/r/discussion/lw/hs5/for_fai_is_molecular_nanotechnology_putting_our/) asking whether bringing up molecular nanotechnology(MNT) as a possible threat avenue for an unfriendly artificial intelligence made FAI research seem less credible because MNT seemed... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZeDS9kCSzGwsxCKBW/how-probable-is-molecular-nanotech |
# Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 19, chapter 88-89
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s _[Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality](http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/1/)_ and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing [chapter](http://www.fa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pxiu5SG8gjhCh2jYd/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-discussion-1 |
# Why one-box?
I have sympathy with both one-boxers and two-boxers in Newcomb's problem. Contrary to this, however, many people on Less Wrong seem to be staunch and confident one-boxers. So I'm turning to you guys to ask for help figuring out whether I should be a staunch one-boxer too. Below is an imaginary dialogue ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ih2eMfnRz7hdTDHEm/why-one-box |
# [LINK] Cantor's theorem, the prisoner's dilemma, and the halting problem
I wouldn't normally link to a [post from my math blog](http://qchu.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/cantors-theorem-the-prisoners-dilemma-and-the-halting-problem/) here, but it concerns a cute interpretation of Cantor's theorem that showed up when I wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/McXxpuL73PYsc5Fga/link-cantor-s-theorem-the-prisoner-s-dilemma-and-the-halting |
# Dealing with Administrative Stress
By Administrative Stress, I refer to the stress caused in dealing with filling forms, applications, talking to bureaucracies, and so on. This has caused me a lot of stress in the past and I've lost several opportunities because of my aversion in dealing with this. Over time I've be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbaKQGRCg6yDJDqyv/dealing-with-administrative-stress |
# What are you working on? July 2013
This is the supposedly-bimonthly-but-we-missed-April-and-June-2013 'What are you working On?' thread. Previous threads are [here](/r/discussion/tag/waywo). So here's the question:
_What are you working on? _
Here are some guidelines:
* Focus on projects that you have recently ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kMvjBoyQKBXPmNkBu/what-are-you-working-on-july-2013 |
# Progress on automated mathematical theorem proving?
In a [recent comment thread](/lw/hmt/tiling_agents_for_selfmodifying_ai_opfai_2/99uz) I expressed skepticism as to whether there's been meaningful progress on general artificial intelligence.
I hedged because of my lack of subject matter knowledge, but thinking it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uu9EAiFwoYg76AAEe/progress-on-automated-mathematical-theorem-proving |
# [Link]: Anthropic shadow, or the dark dusk of disaster
From a [paper](http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/anthropicshadow.pdf) by Milan M. Ćirković, Anders Sandberg, and Nick Bostrom:
> We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XYYBCjAysLsGb5bDQ/link-anthropic-shadow-or-the-dark-dusk-of-disaster |
# Caught in the glare of two anthropic shadows
_This article consists of original new research, so would not get published on Wikipedia!_
The [previous post](/r/discussion/lw/hw7/link_anthropic_shadow_or_the_dark_dusk_of_disaster/) introduced the concept of the anthropic shadow: the fact that certain large and devast... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XwxHwyLtZkQi8jtgg/caught-in-the-glare-of-two-anthropic-shadows |
# How I Became More Ambitious
Follow-up to [How I Ended Up Non-Ambitious](/lw/9j1/how_i_ended_up_nonambitious/)
Living with yourself is a bit like having a preteen and watching them get taller; the changes happen so slowly that it's almost impossible to notice them, until you stumble across an old point of comparison... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KJbQyFbXiiYDDWbaS/how-i-became-more-ambitious |
# A New Interpretation of the Marshmallow Test
I've begun to notice a pattern with experiments in behavioral economics. An experiment produces a result that's counter-intuitive and surprising, and demonstrates that people don't behave as rationally as expected. Then, as time passes, other researchers contrive differen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHdsSaQGAvtkXBzmJ/a-new-interpretation-of-the-marshmallow-test |
# Beeminding Sin
(This is something that I originally posted to the CFAR Alumni list, and then fleshed out a bit and posted to the [Beeminder blog](http://blog.beeminder.com/sin/). It has been well received and there have been suggestions that I post it here, so here it is.)
For a long time I found that I was spendin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C72RP4QzLFQcMApgS/beeminding-sin |
# A Gamification Of Education: a modest proposal based on the Universal Decimal Classification and RPG skill trees
While [making the inventory of my personal library](/lw/hwp/personaly_library_management/) and applying the [Universal Decimal System](http://www.udcc.org/udcsummary/php/index.php?lang=en) to its classif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pqcMyeALASb4d7KE8/a-gamification-of-education-a-modest-proposal-based-on-the |
# Home Economics
As I [inventoried my personal library](/lw/hwp/personaly_library_management/) and classified it using the [Universal Decimal System](http://www.udcc.org/udcsummary/php/index.php?lang=en), I found out about lots of fields of knowledge I was only dimly aware of or didn't even know existed^1^, and one of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zyMvJ325DSqaspfNH/home-economics |
# Estimating the kolmogorov complexity of the known laws of physics?
In the post [Complexity and Intelligence](/lw/vh/complexity_and_intelligence/), Eliezer says that the [Kolmogorov Complexity](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov_complexity) (length of shortest equivalent computer program) of the laws of physics ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zsNrcax53C4xR9esg/estimating-the-kolmogorov-complexity-of-the-known-laws-of |
# Evidential Decision Theory, Selection Bias, and Reference Classes
**See also:** [Does Evidential Decision Theory really fail Solomon's Problem?](/lw/3pf/does_evidential_decision_theory_really_fail/), [What's Wrong with Evidential Decision Theory?](/lw/e7e/whats_wrong_with_evidential_decision_theory/)
It seems to me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fWKGXSZ3uXxLKAxvm/evidential-decision-theory-selection-bias-and-reference |
# Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey
A great many Less Wrongers gave feedback on earlier drafts of "Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey," which has now been [released](http://intelligence.org/2013/07/08/responses-to-catastrophic-agi-risk-a-survey/). This is the preferred discussion page for the pape... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EAp3AQJv8dzTqAdKW/responses-to-catastrophic-agi-risk-a-survey |
# Four Focus Areas of Effective Altruism
It was a pleasure to see all major strands of the [effective altruism movement](http://www.ted.com/talks/peter_singer_the_why_and_how_of_effective_altruism.html) gathered in one place at l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JmmA2Mf5GrY9D6nQD/four-focus-areas-of-effective-altruism |
# [LINK] Analysis of why excluding hostile people is worth it
[http://blip.tv/tech-love-live/osb09-donnie-berkholz-assholes-are-killing-your-project-2464449](http://blip.tv/tech-love-live/osb09-donnie-berkholz-assholes-are-killing-your-project-2464449)
This is specifically about why it's important to get assholes out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bj2NQC9zKYBcka7ha/link-analysis-of-why-excluding-hostile-people-is-worth-it |
# "Can we know what to do about AI?": An Introduction
I'm currently working on a research project for MIRI, and I would welcome feedback on my research as I proceed. In this post, I describe the project.
As a part of an effort to [steel-man](/lw/85h/better_disagreement/) objections to MIRI's mission, MIRI Executive D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t7gKX9Av5zggsQsYr/can-we-know-what-to-do-about-ai-an-introduction |
# Prisoner's dilemma tournament results
The [prisoner's dilemma tournament](/lw/hmx/prisoners_dilemma_with_visible_source_code/) is over. There were a total of 21 entries. The winner is Margaret Sy, with a total of 39 points. 2nd and 3rd place go to rpglover64 and THE BLACK KNIGHT, with scores of 38 and 36 points resp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QP7Ne4KXKytj4Krkx/prisoner-s-dilemma-tournament-results-0 |
# The failure of counter-arguments argument
Suppose you read a convincing-seeming argument by Karl Marx, and get swept up in the beauty of the rhetoric and clarity of the exposition. Or maybe a creationist argument carries you away with its elegance and power. Or maybe you've read [Eliezer's take on AI risk](http://yu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/emwNATBCiYWkqejjf/the-failure-of-counter-arguments-argument |
# Against easy superintelligence: the unforeseen friction argument
In 1932, Stanley Baldwin, prime minister of the largest empire the world had ever seen, proclaimed that "[The bomber will always get through](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bomber_will_always_get_through)". Backed up by most of the professional milit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rPBoLRxSJ88jrthEJ/against-easy-superintelligence-the-unforeseen-friction |
# Svante Arrhenius's Prediction of Climate Change
In [Intelligence Explosion analysis draft: introduction](/lw/8f9/intelligence_explosion_analysis_draft_introduction/), Luke Muehlhauser and Anna Salamon wrote
> Svante Arrhenius' (1896) models of climate change lacked modern climate theory and data but, by making reas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAaXDoidWStxz8DSz/svante-arrhenius-s-prediction-of-climate-change |
# Seed Study: Polyphasic Sleep in Ten Steps
(Update on this project now available [here](/lw/ip6/polyphasic_sleep_seed_study_reprise/).)
A handful of Bay Area folks will be going polyphasic over the next month. By that, I mean we'll be adopting a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cMnjqk8iEzycbLBDA/seed-study-polyphasic-sleep-in-ten-steps |
# Less Wrong London New Arrival Integration Task Force
After considering how many of us have arrived here within recent memory, the London Less Wrong community is explicitly offering itself as a resource for those moving to the city. We all know how awkward and daunting it can be to get settled somewhere new, and we'd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bweLn9Xv9po5Bdzs/less-wrong-london-new-arrival-integration-task-force |
# [META] Open threads (and repository threads) are underutilized.
[Recently](/lw/hyf/link_xkcd_comic_1236_seashells_and_bayes_theorem/9cf4?context=1#comments), issues with the way open threads currently work were brought up. Open threads aren't very visible and get crowded with comments quickly. This causes people to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P8Qc7te5qcEnpD3nv/meta-open-threads-and-repository-threads-are-underutilized |
# "Stupid" questions thread
r/Fitness does a weekly ["Moronic Monday"](http://www.reddit.com/r/Fitness/comments/xe4na/moronic_monday_your_weekly_stupid_questions_thread/), a judgment-free thread where people can ask questions that they would ordinarily feel embarrassed for not knowing the answer to. I thought this see... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P42E5sSbCkDgxEqbn/stupid-questions-thread |
# Some highlights from Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise"
As a part of my work for MIRI on the ["Can we know what to do about AI?"](/r/discussion/lw/hxw/can_we_know_what_to_do_about_ai_an_introduction/) project, I read Nate Silver's book [The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rGj2K8vu5qQCTWCar/some-highlights-from-nate-silver-s-the-signal-and-the-noise |
# To reduce astronomical waste: take your time, then go very fast
While we dither on the planet, are we losing resources in space? Nick Bostrom has an [article](http://www.nickbostrom.com/astronomical/waste.html) on astronomical waste, talking about the vast amounts of potentially useful energy that we're simply not u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S4PGuNHgjNpnnnQvT/to-reduce-astronomical-waste-take-your-time-then-go-very |
# Writing Style and the Typical Mind Fallacy
For a long time, Eliezer has been telling me I should write more like he does. I've mostly resisted, preferring instead to write like this:
1. Explain the lesson of the post immediately, and outline the ideas clearly with lots of headings, subheadings, lists, etc.
2. Sta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Q3MoE9YzFMxGZR7F/writing-style-and-the-typical-mind-fallacy |
# Notes/blog posts on two recent MIRI papers
I've been learning math lately; specifically I've been reading MIRI's recent research preprints and the prerequisite material. In order to _actually learn_ math, I typically have to write it down again, usually with more details and context. I started a blog to make my note... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LQSchuqm3p6pPJ5Ec/notes-blog-posts-on-two-recent-miri-papers |
# Countess and Baron attempt to define blackmail, fail
_For a more concise version of this argument, see [here](/r/discussion/lw/hza/duller_blackmail_definitions/)._
We meet our [heroes](/lw/1w6/blackmail_nukes_and_the_prisoners_dilemma/), the Countess of Rectitude and Baron Chastity, as they continue to investigate ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qjaaux3XnLBwomuNK/countess-and-baron-attempt-to-define-blackmail-fail |
# Duller blackmail definitions
_For a more parable-ic version of this, see [here](/r/discussion/lw/hz9/countess_and_baron_attempt_to_define_blackmail/)._
Suppose I make a precommitment **P** to take action **X** unless you take action **Y**. Action **X** is not in my interest: I wouldn't do it if I knew you'd never t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5xYxL4P5rcdoxTjC6/duller-blackmail-definitions |
# Open thread, July 16-22, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Given the [discussion thread](/lw/hyu/meta_open_threads_and_repository_threads_are/) about these, let's try calling this a one-week thread, and see if anyone bothers starting one next Monday. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5GnwjxbL3SQ7gjRn6/open-thread-july-16-22-2013 |
# For Happiness, Keep a Gratitude Journal
Want to be happier than you already are? Many people look to self-help books as a way to become happy. Sometimes they give good advice and sometimes they dont. However, one of the most robust, enduring findings from psychological studies of increasing people's happiness has... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xYnnRmMmGRAwZoY25/for-happiness-keep-a-gratitude-journal |
# Akrasia Tactics Review 2: The Akrasia Strikes Back
About three and a half years ago, orthonormal ran an [akrasia tactics review](/lw/1sm/akrasia_tactics_review/): an open-ended survey asking Less Wrong posters to give numerical scores to productivity techniques that they'd tried, with the goal of getting a more obje... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tAjXnuJajm3GRKT79/akrasia-tactics-review-2-the-akrasia-strikes-back |
# An Attempt at Preference Uncertainty Using VNM
(This is a (possibly perpetual) draft of some work that we (I) did at the Vancouver meetup. Thanks to my meetup buddies for letting me use their brains as supplementary computational substrate. Sorry about how ugly the LaTeX is; is there a way to make this all look a bi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f3JgMn85PB7cf4jcg/an-attempt-at-preference-uncertainty-using-vnm |
# Comparative and absolute advantage in AI
The theory of [comparative advantage](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage) says that you should trade with people, even if they are worse than you at everything (ie even if you have an [absolute advantage](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absolute_advantage)). Some... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAaGhjKu3Qb3znWWx/comparative-and-absolute-advantage-in-ai |
# HIKE: A Group Dynamics Case Study
I belong to a group at my university that organizes a backpacking trip for incoming freshmen in the two weeks before orientation week. This organization, which I will refer to as HIKE (not the real name), is particularly interesting in terms of group design. Why? It is approximately... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w92bNKf2CpqFwyeih/hike-a-group-dynamics-case-study |
# Three Approaches to "Friendliness"
I put "Friendliness" in quotes in the title, because I think what we [really want](/lw/hll/to_reduce_astronomical_waste_take_your_time_then/9csk), and what MIRI seems to be working towards, is closer to "optimality": create an AI that minimizes the expected amount of astronomical w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vrnhfGuYTww3fKhAM/three-approaches-to-friendliness |
# See Eliezer talk with PZ Myers and David Brin (and me) about immortality this Sunday
FTBCon (Free Thought Blogs) is an all-online convention, a chance for a lot of people to get together and hangout while listening to people talk about atheist and skeptic issues. I proposed a panel on whether human immortality is a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ACoWmQpkPWRu52XWq/see-eliezer-talk-with-pz-myers-and-david-brin-and-me-about |
# Model Combination and Adjustment
[](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Ensemble_learning)The debate on the [proper use](/lw/gvk/induction_or_the_rules_and_etiquette_of_reference/) of inside and outside views has raged for some ti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iyRpsScBa6y4rduEt/model-combination-and-adjustment |
# Instrumental rationality/self help resources
I took part in [a recent discussion](/r/discussion/lw/i0b/open_thread_july_1622_2013/9dvn) in the current Open Thread about how instrumental rationality is under-emphasized on this website. I've heard other people say similar things, and I am inclined to agree. [Someone ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZsRHKfKCE8ftYyM9/instrumental-rationality-self-help-resources |
# Valuable economics knowledge available, ironically, for free
I took an economics course recently. And by "took a course" I mean followed a series of online lectures. I can strongly recommend doing so, especially if you already think you have an intuitive grasp of economics.
I was in that situation. I knew about inc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CYnZcsgFWruaZpS2d/valuable-economics-knowledge-available-ironically-for-free |
# The idiot savant AI isn't an idiot
_A [stub](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Stub) on a point that's come up recently._
If I owned a paperclip factory, and casually told my foreman to improve efficiency while I'm away, and he planned a takeover of the country, aiming to devote its entire economy to paperclip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iqBaHP38uRdHzxhPP/the-idiot-savant-ai-isn-t-an-idiot |
# Even with default points, systems remain exploitable
Still exploitable, even with defaults
-------------------------------------
A while ago, I posted a brief [picture-proof](/lw/8qv/in_the_pareto_world_liars_prosper/) of the fact that whatever bargaining system you use to reach deals, they are all exploitable, in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gtGjiizupfCYCz7Lo/even-with-default-points-systems-remain-exploitable |
# Norbert Wiener's paper "Some Moral and Technical Consequences of Automation"
In 1960, mathematician [Norbert Wiener](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norbert_Wiener) wrote an article titled [Some Moral and Technical Consequences of Automation](http://www.itu.dk/people/cmmm/Wiener.pdf). I'm struck by the strong overlap b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2rWfmahhqASnFcYLr/norbert-wiener-s-paper-some-moral-and-technical-consequences |
# [Link] Cosmological Infancy
A [post](http://www.xenosystems.net/cosmological-infancy/) by [Nick Land](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Land) who some of you are probably already following either on his blog [Outside In](http://www.xenosystems.net/) or at [Urban Future](http://www.ufblog.net).
> There is a ‘proble... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8wBds6gMHGTasbcov/link-cosmological-infancy |
# Introducing Effective Fundraising, a New EA Org
Many people know about GiveWell and [their top-ranked charities](http://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities). But how easy would it be to make a better one? In ["Why It Should Be Easy to Dominate GiveWell's Recommendations"](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2013/03... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hdGmJ4PxKsvDgK62/introducing-effective-fundraising-a-new-ea-org |
# Notes on "The Limits to Growth" and surrounding material
In 1972, Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William Behrens III published [The Limits to Growth](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth), a book about the consequences of unchecked population growth and economic growth. The book wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTuCEXFuha9BWkea5/notes-on-the-limits-to-growth-and-surrounding-material |
# Superrationality and network flow control
Computers exchanging messages on a network must decide how fast or slow to transmit messages. If everyone transmits too slowly then the network is underutilized, which is bad for all. If everyone transmits too quickly then most messages on the network are actually flow contr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XxWoqYCvePGAP9pgM/superrationality-and-network-flow-control |
# Daily Schedules in Combating Akrasia
For the last several months I've had increasing troubles with motivation to work. Reading dense technical papers, writing, and exercise were all much more difficult to prompt myself into starting and completing. I decided to try making a plan for my day the night before about tw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E7NGRzx5iYxCrLHgN/daily-schedules-in-combating-akrasia |
# The Empty White Room: Surreal Utilities
This article was composed after reading [Torture vs. Dust Specks](/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks "Torture vs. Dust Specks") and [Circular Altruism](/lw/n3/circular_altruism/), at which point I noticed that I was confused.
Both posts deal with versions of the sacred-values effe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTReK9K6itkXtWBkv/the-empty-white-room-surreal-utilities |
# Low-hanging fruit: improving wikipedia entries
Many people are likely stumble across the Wikipedia entry for topics of interest relevant to those of us who frequent LessWrong: rationality, artificial intelligence, existential risks, decision theory, etc. These pages often shape one’s initial impressions of how inter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eP5ACNfhivJRccwu3/low-hanging-fruit-improving-wikipedia-entries |
# MIRI's 2013 Summer Matching Challenge
([MIRI](http://intelligence.org/) maintains Less Wrong, with generous help from [Trike Apps](http://trikeapps.com/), and much of the core content is written by salaried MIRI staff members.)
**Update 09-15-2013**: The fundraising drive has been completed! My thanks to everyone w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6CnoNSworudoxJZtb/miri-s-2013-summer-matching-challenge |
# Gains from trade: Slug versus Galaxy - how much would I give up to control you?
Edit: Moved to main at ThrustVectoring's suggestion.
_A suggestion as to how to split the gains from trade in some situations._
The problem of Power
--------------------
A year or so ago, people in the FHI embarked on a grand project:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kvBxG9ZmYb5rDRiq/gains-from-trade-slug-versus-galaxy-how-much-would-i-give-up |
# low stress employment/ munchkin income thread
_TL;DR: this is a repository for discussing income generation strategies optimized for free time_
I hope I'm not cluttering up LW but maybe enough people are also interested in this? I graduated high school about a year ago.
I have a lot in common with Will Newsome's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jjKYBQLkMvLabTcWt/low-stress-employment-munchkin-income-thread |
# Why Eat Less Meat?
Previously, [I wrote on LessWrong](/lw/hox/effective_altruism_through_advertising/) about the preliminary evidence in favor of using leaflets to promote veganism as a way of cost-effectively reducing suffering. In response, there was a large discussion with 530+ comments. In this discussion, I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LbbyQhLkcwAwWmBoj/why-eat-less-meat |
# Introducing Familiar, a quantified reasoning assistant (feedback sought!)
_tl;dr: I'm making a thing that uses probabilistic graphical models to assist in drawing inferences from personal data. You should [c](https://github.com/jferg/familiar)__[heck it out](https://github.com/jferg/familiar), and share with me your... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bnirupGkLNkmvr33f/introducing-familiar-a-quantified-reasoning-assistant |
# Inferential credit history
Here’s an [interview](http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/oreilly/index.html#/v/1146350884001/alien-invasion-over-global-warming) with Seth Baum. Seth is an expert in risk analysis and a founder of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. As expected, *Bill O’Reilly* caricatured Seth as extreme, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PL4hW4eNsfa4FZaKi/inferential-credit-history |
# Making Rationality General-Interest
**Introduction**
Less Wrong currently represents a tiny, tiny, tiny segment of the population. In its current form, it might only _appeal_ to a tiny, tiny segment of the population. Basically, the people who have a strong [need for](/) [cognition](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R38jwJcWKH6S7hpFJ/making-rationality-general-interest |
# Useful Questions Repository
**See also:** [Boring Advice Repository](/lw/gx5/boring_advice_repository/), [Solved Problems Repository](/lw/h2m/solved_problems_repository/), [Grad Student Advice Repository](/lw/h7d/grad_student_advice_repository/), [Useful Concepts Repository](/lw/hhl/useful_concepts_repository/), [Ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ghcCY5E4rmwsmTxjv/useful-questions-repository |
# The Robots, AI, and Unemployment Anti-FAQ
Q. Are the current high levels of unemployment being caused by advances in Artificial Intelligence automating away human jobs?
A. Conventional economic theory says this shouldn't happen. Suppose it costs 2 units of labor to produce a hot dog and 1 unit of labor to produc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZiRKzx3yv7NyA5rjF/the-robots-ai-and-unemployment-anti-faq |
# Welcome to Less Wrong! (6th thread, July 2013)
If you've recently joined the [Less Wrong community](/lw/1/about_less_wrong), please leave a comment here and introduce yourself. We'd love to know who you are, what you're doing, what you value, [how you came to identify as an aspiring rationalist](/lw/2/tell_your_rati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pMDiDTZWB2yZpcozy/welcome-to-less-wrong-6th-thread-july-2013 |
# The Argument From Marginal Cases
The [argument from marginal cases](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_marginal_cases) claims that you can't both think that humans [matter](http://www.jefftk.com/news/2012-04-30) morally and that animals don't, because no reasonable set of criteria for moral worth cleanly sep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2rit2BKzWSWsP2yKT/the-argument-from-marginal-cases |
# System Administrator Appreciation Day - Thanks Trike!
In honor of [System Administrator Appreciation Day](http://sysadminday.com/), this is a post to thank [Trike Apps](http://trikeapps.com/) for creating & maintaining Less Wrong. A lot of the time when they are mentioned on Less Wrong, it is to complain about bugs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6TiTLshGiXF5X7cQA/system-administrator-appreciation-day-thanks-trike |
# Norbert Wiener on automation and unemployment
As a part of my work on the ["Can we know what to do about AI?"](/r/discussion/lw/hxw/can_we_know_what_to_do_about_ai_an_introduction/) project for MIRI, I looked at mathematician [Norbert Wiener's](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norbert_Wiener) predictions about the impac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2NqaBJjtyMEWCmvhq/norbert-wiener-on-automation-and-unemployment |
# Alternative to Bayesian Score
I am starting to wonder whether or not Bayes Score is what I want to maximize for my epistemic rationality. I started thinking about by trying to design a board game to teach calibration of probabilities, so I will use that as my example:
I wanted a scoring mechanism which motivates ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FZ8SfWktLM4sg833g/alternative-to-bayesian-score |
# Arguments Against Speciesism
There have been some posts about animals lately, for instance [here](/lw/hox/effective_altruism_through_advertising "here") and [here](/lw/i3s/why_eat_less_meat/ "here"). While normative assumptions about the treatment of nonhumans played an important role in the articles and were debate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tm2i5r2rNSfeam5or/arguments-against-speciesism |
# Repository repository
A few weeks ago, [Adele_L suggested](/lw/hyu/meta_open_threads_and_repository_threads_are/) that the repositories were underutilized and looked for suggestions on how to improve that. In that spirit, I added the following links to the [Special Threads wiki page](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/S... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEaDmtwrmTC7kTqcf/repository-repository |
# Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too)
Since living in Oxford, one of the centers of the "effective altruism" movement, I've been spending a lot of time discussing the classic “effective altruism” topic -- where it would be best to focus our time and money.
Some people here seem to think th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiN948y5QDgNbuTXP/why-i-m-skeptical-about-unproven-causes-and-you-should-be |
# Rationality Quotes from people associated with LessWrong
The other rationality quotes thread operates under the rule:
> Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, Overcoming Bias, or HPMoR.
Lately it seems that every MIRI or CFAR employee is excempt from being quoted.
As there are still interesting quotes that happen o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWTZj26MfR8e8b9nm/rationality-quotes-from-people-associated-with-lesswrong |
# Optimize Your Settings
**Related to:** [The Good News of Situationist Psychology](/lw/52g/the_good_news_of_situationist_psychology/)
Perhaps the most significant teaching social psychology has to offer is that most of our behaviors are determined by [situational factors](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_att... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WLwFq5QGZ9K727Brx/optimize-your-settings |
# Leveling up...
I just figured out how to use the local banking system and I will be able for the first time to pay my rent from my actual salary received in this country (as opposed to savings from my previous life). Also I always hated shopping for groceries and now I can do it without much pain, because I've found... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zLFpX6ySm8ddiW8z3/leveling-up |
# Internet Research (with tangent on intelligence analysis and collapse)
**Want to save time? Skip down to "I'm looking to compile a thread on Internet Research"!**
_Opinionated Preamble:_
There is a lot of high level thinking on Less Wrong, which is great. It's done wonders to structure and optimize my own decision... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BfDfGPRfDZXN2AZF8/internet-research-with-tangent-on-intelligence-analysis-and |
# More "Stupid" Questions
This is a thread where people can ask questions that they would ordinarily feel embarrassed for not knowing the answer to. The previous ["stupid" questions thread](/lw/hzd/stupid_questions_thread/) went to over 800 comments in two and a half weeks, so I think it's time for a new one. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKt3braRWySYKs5iD/more-stupid-questions |
# Q for GiveWell: What is GiveDirectly's mechanism of action?
I first wrote up the following post, then happened to run into Holden Karnofsky in person and asked him a much-shortened form of the question verbally. My attempt to recount Holden's verbal reply is also given further below. I was moderately impressed by ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eYCj6GnnSSmDKDZgG/q-for-givewell-what-is-givedirectly-s-mechanism-of-action |
# RapGenius + Sequences = ?
I recently saw [Ashton Kutcher's annotation of a speech by Steve Jobs](http://poetry.rapgenius.com/Steve-jobs-academy-of-achievement-speech-1982-lyrics) on [RapGenius](http://rapgenius.com/). For those that haven't heard of it, RapGenius is a content annotation platform, where the "Rap" par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XWdnafnyKHHiyP7f8/rapgenius-sequences |
# How does MIRI Know it Has a Medium Probability of Success?
In the past, people like Eliezer Yudkowsky (see [1](/lw/hjn/earning_to_give_vs_altruistic_career_choice/92gu), [2](/lw/gzq/bayesian_adjustment_does_not_defeat_existential/8ntt), [3](/lw/745/why_we_cant_take_expected_value_estimates/4o5s), [4](/lw/745/why_we_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iELiEEZERCXJS9DT4/how-does-miri-know-it-has-a-medium-probability-of-success |
# Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains
Today MIRI released a new technical report by visiting researcher [Katja Grace](http://meteuphoric.wordpress.com/) called "**[Algorithmic Progress in Six Domains](http://intelligence.org/files/AlgorithmicProgress.pdf)**." The report summarizes data on algorithmic progress – that i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ueBMpvDsDEZgKiESt/algorithmic-progress-in-six-domains |
# How to Measure Anything
[](http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/)Douglas Hubbard’s _[How to Measure Anything](http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/047053939... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybYBCK9D7MZCcdArB/how-to-measure-anything |
# Improving Enjoyment and Retention Reading Technical Literature
A little background on myself first – I am currently studying to become involved with aging rejuvenation therapies like SENS.
This requires learning quite a lot about molecular biology. Which is fine, because I find cell biology quite interesting. The p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JZTBonFhSxGbXpS5w/improving-enjoyment-and-retention-reading-technical |
# What Would it Take to "Prove" a Speculative Cause?
_Follow up to: [Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too)](/lw/i6f/why_im_skeptical_about_unproven_causes_and_you/)_
-
My previous essay [Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too)](/lw/i6f/why_im_skeptical_about_unproven... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JvvGJxrfCgCiRLraq/what-would-it-take-to-prove-a-speculative-cause |
# Should you work at 80,000 Hours?
**The purpose of this post is to discuss some considerations relevant to whether it is high impact for you as an individual to work for 80,000 Hours.**
Disclaimer: I am an employee at 80,000 Hours (from here on 80k). We are currently recruiting, and want to attract people to work fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B4vxxgSqnGTWR43C3/should-you-work-at-80-000-hours |
# New article on in vitro iterated embryo selection
The [article](http://jme.bmj.com/content/early/2013/02/13/medethics-2012-101200.full?sid=e04fe105-6117-4c50-8902-0bbc6891dc30) by Robert Sparrow:
> A series of recent scientific results suggest that, in the not-too-distant future, it will be possible to create viabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9DwbvEr2thuueG2yK/new-article-on-in-vitro-iterated-embryo-selection |
# Interesting new Pew Research study on American opinions about radical life extension
[This new study](http://www.pewforum.org/2013/08/06/living-to-120-and-beyond-americans-views-on-aging-medical-advances-and-radical-life-extension/) by Pew Research on American opinions about radical life extension turned up some int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ctdTvy3htZgQFb2kN/interesting-new-pew-research-study-on-american-opinions |
# The Rebuttal Repository
Since repositories [are popular](/r/discussion/lw/i64/repository_repository/) and useful, I thought it would be good to have one where we pair common bad/incorrect/flawed/misleanding/incomplete ideas with high-quality articles that explain why those ideas are bad/incorrect/flawed/misleading/i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5pGKbwzyLfTp4cfND/the-rebuttal-repository |
# New Monthly Thread: Bragging
In an attempt to encourage more people to _actually do awesome things_ (a la instrumental rationality), I am proposing a new monthly thread (can be changed to bi-weekly, should that be demanded). Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining **the most... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/53bfN42CCTfC3n5WA/new-monthly-thread-bragging |
# Common sense as a prior
Introduction
============
\[I have edited the introduction of this post for increased clarity.\]
This post is my attempt to answer the question, "How should we take account of the distribution of opinion and epistemic standards in the world?" By “epistemic standards,” I roughly mean a perso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wgdfxQJ2DQuju73zC/common-sense-as-a-prior |
# What Bayesianism taught me
David Chapman [criticizes](http://meaningness.com/metablog/bayesianism-updating) "pop Bayesianism" as just common-sense rationality dressed up as intimidating math^\[1\]^:
> Bayesianism boils down to “don’t be so sure of your beliefs; be less sure when you see contradictory evidence.”
>
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBnaLpsrYXLXjFocu/what-bayesianism-taught-me |
# Update on establishment of Cambridge’s Centre for Study of Existential Risk
Cambridge’s high-profile launch of the [Centre for Study of Existential Risk](http://www.cser.org) last November received a lot of attention on LessWrong, and a number of people have been enquiring as to what‘s happened since. This post is m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2idJBvzzj3dP36HSA/update-on-establishment-of-cambridge-s-centre-for-study-of |
# Does Checkers have simpler rules than Go?
I've [seen](http://www.jefftk.com/p/aliens-dont-play-chess) various contenders for the title of simplest abstract game that's interesting enough that a professional community could reasonably play it full time. While [Go](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_(board_game)) probabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/buf87jaKck83EkNzH/does-checkers-have-simpler-rules-than-go |
# Biases of Intuitive and Logical Thinkers
Any intuition-dominant thinker who's struggled with math problems or logic-dominant thinker who's struggled with small-talk knows how difficult and hopeless the experience feels like. For a long time I was an intuition thinker, then I developed a logical thinking style and so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GSQsAReasGjETP3e9/biases-of-intuitive-and-logical-thinkers |
# Engaging Intellectual Elites at Less Wrong
Is Less Wrong, despite its flaws, the highest-quality relatively-general-interest forum on the web? It seems to me that, to find reliably higher-quality discussion, I must turn to more narrowly focused sites, e.g. [MathOverflow](http://mathoverflow.net/) and the [GiveWell b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dzPaFnf9cWiP3wbG9/engaging-intellectual-elites-at-less-wrong |
# Where I've Changed My Mind on My Approach to Speculative Causes
_Follow up to [Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too)](/lw/i6f/why_im_skeptical_about_unproven_causes_and_you/)_
Previously, I wrote ["Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too)"](/lw/i6f/why_im_skeptical_a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tX93igpzE5spGkpmp/where-i-ve-changed-my-mind-on-my-approach-to-speculative |
# Humans are utility monsters
When someone complains that utilitarianism^1^ leads to the [dust speck paradox](/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks/) or the trolley-car problem, I tell them that's a feature, not a bug. I'm not ready to say that respecting the [utility monster](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_monster) is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfpJ6WQBDcEcC8Mu4/humans-are-utility-monsters |
# LW Melbourne: Report on Public Rationality Lecture
**Introduction**
In the past couple of months, Melbourne LW has been working to expand our activities and community, as well generally promoting rationality. A huge shout out goes to [BraydenM](/user/BraydenM/overview/) who is responsible for spearheading these eff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gWgiGfaunx5g4KYWt/lw-melbourne-report-on-public-rationality-lecture |
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