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# My daily reflection routine
In [Common sense as a prior](/r/lesswrong/lw/iao/common_sense_as_a_prior/), I used the example of prayer as a practice that is probably adaptive but the people who adopt it may not know why it is adaptive. I wrote:
Another striking example is bedtime prayer. In many Christian traditions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJ57sF8eEoAPJHzaq/my-daily-reflection-routine |
# One way to manipulate your level of abstraction related to a task
In construal level theory, ideas can be classified along a spectrum from concrete (["near" in Robin Hanson's terminology](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/06/near-far-summary.html)) to abstract ("far"). As a summary, here is the abstract from a 2010... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AgPwLmqChrWCYcKus/one-way-to-manipulate-your-level-of-abstraction-related-to-a |
# Engaging First Introductions to AI Risk
I'm putting together a list of short and sweet **introductions to the dangers of artificial superintelligence**.
My target audience is intelligent, broadly philosophical [narrative](/lw/hzt/writing_style_and_the_typical_mind_fallacy/) thinkers, who can evaluate arguments well... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BdXeZC8hFvLMcN495/engaging-first-introductions-to-ai-risk |
# Internal and external criticism
I notice that if you want to persuade me away from a position, it sometimes works to have me talk with two kinds of people: 1) people who have good reasons for disagreeing with my position, and 2) people who agree with my position for similar reasons and hold it even more strongly tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3BpSzw9iWvdXy9Bh/internal-and-external-criticism |
# Use Your Identity Carefully
In [Keep Your Identity Small](http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html), Paul Graham argues against associating yourself with labels (i.e. “libertarian,” “feminist,” “gamer,” “American”) because labels constrain what you’ll let yourself believe. It’s a wonderful essay that’s led me to make... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zupr296Zy74wpihXT/use-your-identity-carefully |
# Another Anki deck for Less Wrong content
Anki decks of Less Wrong content have been shared here [before](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Spaced_repetition#SR_decks). However, they felt a bit huge (one deck was >1500 cards) and/or not helpful to me. As I go through the sequences, I create Anki cards, and I've decided ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u53R6AmLHBcCgaA52/another-anki-deck-for-less-wrong-content |
# Lesswrong Philosophy and Personal Identity
Although Elizier has dealt with personal identity questions (in terms of ruling out the body theory), he has not actually, as far as I know, "solved" the problem of Personal Identity as it is understood in philosophy. Nor, as far as I know, has any thinker (Robin Hanson, Yv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CKWL7yjwAwnZri2o4/lesswrong-philosophy-and-personal-identity |
# How Efficient is the Charitable Market?
When I talk about the [poor distribution of funds in charity](http://www.amazon.com/With-Charity-All-Charities-Failing/dp/038553471X/), people in the [effective altruism](/lw/hx4/four_focus_areas_of_effective_altruism/) movement sometimes say, "Didn't Holden Karnofsky show tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBKrSNEejyE7nYmqq/how-efficient-is-the-charitable-market |
# To what degree do you model people as agents?
The idea for this post came out of a conversation during one of the Less Wrong Ottawa events. A joke about being solipsist turned into a genuine question–if you wanted to assume that people were figments of your imagination, how much of a problem would this be? (Being to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cenSWez9Ddgsjd5Fc/to-what-degree-do-you-model-people-as-agents |
# Reality is weirdly normal
**Related to:** [When Anthropomorphism Became Stupid](/lw/t5/when_anthropomorphism_became_stupid/), [Reductionism](/lw/on/reductionism/), [How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3](/lw/jr/how_to_convince_me_that_2_2_3/)
"**[Reality is normal.](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Reality_is_normal)**" ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jntmpKiyg6oHFhLcP/reality-is-weirdly-normal |
# How sure are you that brain emulations would be conscious?
> Or the converse problem - an agent that contains all the aspects of human value, _except _the valuation of subjective experience. So that the result is a nonsentient optimizer that goes around making genuine discoveries, but the discoveries are not savore... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6nbuf6ZDiQe5RWwqv/how-sure-are-you-that-brain-emulations-would-be-conscious |
# How I Am Productive
I like to think that I get a lot of stuff done. Other people have noticed this and asked me how I'm so productive. This essay is where I try and "share my secrets", so to speak.
The real secret is that, in the past, I wasn't nearly as productive. I struggled with procrastination, had issues c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTHe5oGvdj6T73o4o/how-i-am-productive |
# What should a college student do to maximize future earnings for effective altruism?
I'd like to solicit advice since I'm starting at Stanford this Fall and I'm interested in optimal philanthropy.
First off, what should I major in? I have experience in programming and math, so I'm thinking of majoring in CS, possib... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hhj24dWKnGqEd5Gw2/what-should-a-college-student-do-to-maximize-future-earnings |
# Outside View(s) and MIRI's FAI Endgame
On the subject of how an FAI team can avoid accidentally creating a UFAI, Carl Shulman [wrote](/lw/8c3/qa_with_new_executive_director_of_singularity/596l):
> If we condition on having all other variables optimized, I'd expect a team to adopt very high standards of proof, and r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WdibyPFqYkCkLGxCq/outside-view-s-and-miri-s-fai-endgame |
# Why Productivity? Why Gratitude?
I recently did a series of online seminars where productivity guru [Jason Womack](http://womackcompany.com/) tried to apply his advice for academics.
The productivity advice was good but not especially new after having read a lot of anti-akrasia posts on LW; EverydayUtilitarian rece... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TtXhPXoYxwj2dHC4k/why-productivity-why-gratitude |
# Genies and Wishes in the context of computer science
Using computers to find a cure
------------------------------
What it could be like to make a program which would fulfill our wish to "cure cancer"? I'll try to briefly present the contemporary mainstream CS perspe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiCG5DkrZTQT8o659/genies-and-wishes-in-the-context-of-computer-science |
# Raising numerate children
How do you raise a child as a rationalist? I can't say that that was exactly what I had in mind but it seems to make for a fitting title here. A more precise title could have been: "How to deeply educate a child such that it fun and natural".
Today I'd like to tell you about the lullabies ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZhoyWrqXRShbee4bS/raising-numerate-children |
# Bed time stories with clear concepts
**Followup of:** [Raising numerate children](/r/discussion/lw/iha/raising_numerate_children/)
As promised I will now give one more parenting technique for raising a child as a rationalist.
This is about a special kind of bed time stories that I tell. The idea is to use clear co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAfZr8tHe5fPZyab4/bed-time-stories-with-clear-concepts |
# MIRI course list book reviews, part 1: Gödel, Escher, Bach
I'm [Nate](/lw/i4z/welcome_to_less_wrong_6th_thread_july_2013/9gh5). I was recently introduced to the ideas of existential risk and unfriendly AI. I've decided to read the books suggested in the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/). I'll revi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oHAQD53FhpHte4dEM/miri-course-list-book-reviews-part-1-goedel-escher-bach |
# P/S/A - Sam Harris offering money for a little good philosophy
Sam Harris is here offering a substantial amount of money to anyone who can show a flaw in the philosophy of 'The Moral Landscape' in 1000 word or less, or at least the best attempt.
http://www.samharris.org/blog/item/the-moral-landscape-challenge1
Up ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q9bmnbH3pTyTMSv5s/p-s-a-sam-harris-offering-money-for-a-little-good-philosophy |
# Advanced Placement exam cutoffs and superficial knowledge over deep knowledge
When I was in high school, I noticed is that it was possible to score the top mark on an [Advanced Placement (AP) Exam](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Placement_exams) by answering a relatively small portion of the questions correct... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4W9i78uxX8Dibk77L/advanced-placement-exam-cutoffs-and-superficial-knowledge |
# Book Review: Heuristics and Biases (MIRI course list)
I'm [reviewing](/lw/iht/miri_course_list_book_reviews_part_1_g%C3%B6del_escher/) the books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/).
Upon deciding to read the course list, the first book I picked up was _Heuristics and Biases_. It's a tome of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gc6foBcbozvEJ3HbG/book-review-heuristics-and-biases-miri-course-list |
# Reflective Control
You've had those moments -- the ones where you're _very_ aware of where you're at in the world, and you're mapping out your future and plans very smartly, and you're feeling great about taking action and pushing important things forwards.
I used to find myself only reaching that place, at random,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9TCH6qtKkfSnjjieP/reflective-control |
# How valuable is it to learn math deeply?
I've been wondering how useful it is for the typical academically strong high schooler to learn math deeply. Here by "learn deeply" I mean "understanding the concepts and their interrelations" as opposed to learning narrow technical procedures exclusively.
My experience lear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fE3PTs3M5Ky4DgERh/how-valuable-is-it-to-learn-math-deeply |
# Useful Habits Repository
[Repositories](/lw/i64/repository_repository/) are awesome, and [we should have more of them](/lw/hyu/meta_open_threads_and_repository_threads_are/).
I recently completed [BJ Fogg's Tiny Habits](http://tinyhabits.com/), and it's a pretty lightweight way to install new habits (recommended). ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qY4APiXbXESb7yTEG/useful-habits-repository |
# Ignorance in parenting
**Followup to:** [Strategic ignorance and plausible deniability](/lw/72d/strategic_ignorance_and_plausible_deniability/)
My in-law always says: "For children it is easier be forgiven then to get permission."
**EDIT:** This post is superseeded by my [Book Review: Kazdin's The Everyday Parent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/75jogPJeSCBtPArex/ignorance-in-parenting |
# Types of recursion
As a freshman in college I took an intro linguistics class where we spent a lot of time discussing universal grammar and recursive phrase structures. One of the examples we looked at I still don't fully understand - it illustrated two distinct forms of nested phrases that he mind handles very diff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Mu3pniP9SB4FiJRn/types-of-recursion |
# Which subreddits should we create on Less Wrong?
Less Wrong is based on [reddit](http://www.reddit.com/) code, which means we can create [subreddits](http://www.reddit.com/reddits/) with relative ease.
Right now we have two subreddits, Main and Discussion. These are distinguished not by subject matter, but by wheth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFwtkx9wtSzssYv9W/which-subreddits-should-we-create-on-less-wrong |
# LINK: Study demonstrates politically motivated innumeracy
Original article: [Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government](http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2319992 "Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government").
Easy-to-read summary of the results: [Science Confirms: Politics Wrecks Y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cAfcBMRqWX8jwFwaM/link-study-demonstrates-politically-motivated-innumeracy |
# Should We Tell People That Giving Makes Them Happier?
Why do people give to charity?
It seems strange to even ask. Most people would point to the fact that they’re altruistic and want to make a difference. Others are concerned with inequality and justice. Another group points to the concept of “paying it forward” o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h5B4aYb9whZPKgb7b/should-we-tell-people-that-giving-makes-them-happier |
# How effectively can we plan for future decades? (initial findings)
Cross-posted from [MIRI's blog](http://intelligence.org/2013/09/04/how-effectively-can-we-plan-for-future-decades/).
MIRI aims to do research now that increases humanity's odds of successfully managing important AI-related events that are at least [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gYiXucYZBgWdWdxJe/how-effectively-can-we-plan-for-future-decades-initial |
# I attempted the AI Box Experiment again! (And won - Twice!)
Summary
=======
Update #3: [I have since played two more experiment. Please read this for a follow-up.](/r/discussion/lw/iqk/i_played_the_ai_box_experiment_again_and_lost/)
So I just came out of two AI Box experiments. The first was agaist Fjoelsvider... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dop3rLwFhW5gtpEgz/i-attempted-the-ai-box-experiment-again-and-won-twice |
# The Up-Goer Five Game: Explaining hard ideas with simple words
xkcd's [Up-Goer Five comic](http://xkcd.com/1133/) gave technical specifications for the [Saturn V rocket](http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1133:_Up_Goer_Five) using only the [1,000 most common words](http://splasho.com/upgoer5/phpspellche... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvXwYzyf9AJLgRW4e/the-up-goer-five-game-explaining-hard-ideas-with-simple |
# The genie knows, but doesn't care
**Followup to**: [The Hidden Complexity of Wishes](/lw/ld/the_hidden_complexity_of_wishes/), [Ghosts in the Machine](/lw/rf/ghosts_in_the_machine/), [Truly Part of You](/lw/la/truly_part_of_you/)
**Summary**: If an artificial intelligence is smart enough to be dangerous, we'd intui... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NyFuuKQ8uCEDtd2du/the-genie-knows-but-doesn-t-care |
# Course selection based on instructor
I've been trying to compile advice on how to select good instructors in college, assuming that the major and course level are given. Of course, many people don't have a lot of flexibility with instructor choice, so this advice has limited applicability. The reason I'm posting to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J7RY9t2ph6Du8JHgD/course-selection-based-on-instructor |
# High School, Human Capital, Signaling and College Admissions
During high school, students learn skills that will help them in their future careers. This can be referred to as _building human capital_. They also build up a record of grades, standardized test scores, and extracurricular activities that colleges use to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wPTQZ7KbiMQkrkZX6/high-school-human-capital-signaling-and-college-admissions |
# Mistakes repository
This is a repository for major, life-altering mistakes that you or others have made. Detailed accounts of specific mistakes are welcome, and so are mentions of general classes of mistakes that people often make. If similar repositories already exist (inside or outside of LW), links are greatly ap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLiJPDFHCRYcftQnq/mistakes-repository |
# Book Review: Cognitive Science (MIRI course list)
I'm reviewing the books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/). After reading [Heuristics and Biases](/lw/ii0/book_review_heuristics_and_biases_miri_course_list/) I picked up _Cognitive Science_, by José Luis Bermúdez. It taught me a number of in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ucpD7YtcvKo6C9fBK/book-review-cognitive-science-miri-course-list |
# Military Rationalities and Irrationalities
In response to the question
> "Does anyone happen to know of reliable ways for increasing one's supply of executive function, by the way? I seem to run out of it very quickly in general."
>
> (Kaj_Solata)
I posted that my military experience seems effectively designed to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c7YzTturH2yQGjALZ/military-rationalities-and-irrationalities |
# The Ultimate Newcomb's Problem
You see two boxes and you can either take both boxes, or take only box B. Box A is transparent and contains $1000. Box B contains a visible number, say 1033. The Bank of Omega, which operates by very clear and transparent mechanisms, will pay you $1M if this number is prime, and $0 if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RAh4fekdiRhZxb2Kw/the-ultimate-newcomb-s-problem |
# Three ways CFAR has changed my view of rationality
The [Center for Applied Rationality's](http://rationality.org) perspective on rationality is quite similar to Less Wrong's. In particular, we share many of Less Wrong's differences from what's sometimes called ["traditional" rationality](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/68dHanLWsS6SEyZp9/three-ways-cfar-has-changed-my-view-of-rationality |
# How well will policy-makers handle AGI? (initial findings)
Cross-posted from [MIRI's blog](http://intelligence.org/2013/09/12/how-well-will-policy-makers-handle-agi-initial-findings/).
MIRI's [mission](http://intelligence.org/about/) is "to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4JGQtc4ZgmdsrtBhB/how-well-will-policy-makers-handle-agi-initial-findings |
# Games for Rationalists
**Follow-up to: [Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases](/lw/4fp/fun_and_games_with_cognitive_biases/) **
**Related to: [Rationality Games & Apps Brainstorming](/r/discussion/lw/dhn/rationality_games_apps_brainstorming/), ****[Rationality and Video Games](/r/discussion/lw/7od/rationality_and_vid... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/toFESsZBQEZ4wq9od/games-for-rationalists |
# Notes on Brainwashing & 'Cults'
> “Brainwashing”, as popularly understood, does not exist or is of almost zero effectiveness. The belief stems from American panic over Communism post-Korean War combined with fear of new religions and sensationalized incidents; in practice, “cults” have retention rates in the single ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TiG8cLkBRW4QgsfrR/notes-on-brainwashing-and-cults |
# College courses versus LessWrong
Compared to many of the people reading this, I've not participated extensively on LessWrong. In fact, I created my account only about a week ago. That said, I _have_ read many LessWrong articles by contributors such as [Eliezer](/user/Eliezer_Yudkowsky), [Jonah](/user/JonahSinick/), ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMbzc7MDb64Fekk7s/college-courses-versus-lesswrong |
# Winter Solstice 2013 Kickstarter - The Big One.
> _Like most things, winter was once a mystery. _
> _
> The world got cold, and dark. Life became fragile. People died. And they didn't know what was happening or understand why. They desperately threw festivals in honor of sun gods with all-too-human motivations, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bJSuBC35NHNZXrB2x/winter-solstice-2013-kickstarter-the-big-one |
# Notes on logical priors from the MIRI workshop
(This post contains a lot of math, and assumes some familiarity with the earlier LW posts on decision theory. Most of the ideas are by me and Paul Christiano, building on earlier ideas of Wei Dai.)
The September MIRI workshop has just finished. There were discussions o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wXxPmc9W6kPb6i7vj/notes-on-logical-priors-from-the-miri-workshop |
# Cooperating with agents with different ideas of fairness, while resisting exploitation
There's an idea from the latest MIRI workshop which I haven't seen in informal theories of negotiation, and I want to know if this is a known idea.
_(Old well-known ideas:)_
Suppose a standard Prisoner's Dilemma matrix where (3,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2YwmzuT7nWx62Kfh/cooperating-with-agents-with-different-ideas-of-fairness |
# Probability, knowledge, and meta-probability
This article is the first in a sequence that will consider situations where probability estimates are not, by themselves, adequate to make rational decisions. This one introduces a "meta-probability" approach, borrowed from E. T. Jaynes, and uses it to analyze a gambling ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2xmKZu73gZLDEQw7c/probability-knowledge-and-meta-probability |
# [LINK] Larry = Harry sans magic? Google vs. Death
[Google's announcement](http://googlepress.blogspot.ca/2013/09/calico-announcement.html), [Time magazine](http://techland.time.com/2013/09/18/google-vs-death/) rather sensationalist headline.
In any case, it's nice to know that Google set its sights to "challenge ..... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3XBEcnyD8BiGXLSR4/link-larry-harry-sans-magic-google-vs-death |
# Understanding Simpson's Paradox
An article by [Judea Pearl](http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/jp_home.html), available [here](http://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r414.pdf). It's quick at 8 pages, and worth reading if you enjoy statistics (though I think people who already are familiar with the math of causality^1^ will get m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGsoajyYJRczieqh5/understanding-simpson-s-paradox |
# Book Review: Basic Category Theory for Computer Scientists (MIRI course list)
I'm reviewing the books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/). After finishing [Cognitive Science](/lw/il1/book_review_cognitive_science_miri_course_list/) I picked up _Basic Category Theory for Computer Scientists_, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jar4BGrJ7BiQemBDM/book-review-basic-category-theory-for-computer-scientists |
# Help us Optimize the Contents of the Sequences eBook
MIRI's ongoing effort to publish [the sequences](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences) as an eBook has given us the opportunity to update their contents and organization.
We're looking for suggested posts to **reorder, add, or remove**.
To help with this, he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZsDmi6XbLu3LF3gi7/help-us-optimize-the-contents-of-the-sequences-ebook |
# The Belief Signaling Trilemma
One major issue for group rationality is signaling with dishonest beliefs. Beliefs are used as a signal to preserve your reputation or to show membership in a group. It happens subconsciously, and I believe it is the cause of most of the issues of both religions and political parties. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WbQB5LnRyke5ye4Yg/the-belief-signaling-trilemma |
# Interactive Infographic on Simpson's Paradox
Since Simpson's Paradox has been discussed here [recently](/r/discussion/lw/ioj/understanding_simpsons_paradox/) (and [not so recently](/lw/3q3/simpsons_paradox/)), I thought I'd share this interactive^1^ [infographic](http://vudlab.com/simpsons/) that I found via the Flo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqj4683HXEabnjNgn/interactive-infographic-on-simpson-s-paradox |
# Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing
In "[How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond Heuristics and Biases](http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf)", [Gerd Gigerenzer](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer) attempts to show that the whole "Heuristics and Biases" a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24CfLhbByQqv6nSws/instinctive-frequentists-the-outside-view-and-de-biasing |
# Polyphasic Sleep Seed Study: Reprise
(Original post on the polyphasic sleep experiment [here](/lw/hyr/seed_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/).)
Welp, this got a little messy. The main culprit was Burning Man, though there were some other complications with data collection as well. Here are the basics of what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QvZ6w64JugewNiccS/polyphasic-sleep-seed-study-reprise |
# Hoping to start a discussion about overcoming insecurity
Since Jr High at least, I've been frustrated by my insecurity. I don't intend this to be a personally revealing post so I'll just sum it up by saying that being insecure has had a profoundly negative impact on my life. I feel that it is the single biggest reas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oNPQDmfx3z9xsT8RJ/hoping-to-start-a-discussion-about-overcoming-insecurity |
# Torture vs. Shampoo
I was reading the original comment thread on [Torture vs. Dust Specks](/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks/), and notice Eliezer [saying](/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks/ueq) he wouldn't pay a penny to avoid a _single_ dust speck - which confused me, until I noticed that the original specification of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kXmLGPG8QfXpm2DfY/torture-vs-shampoo |
# A map of Bay Area memespace
The main reason we picked the Bay Area as a home for the [Center for Applied Rationality](http://rationality.org) was simply because that's where our initial fiscal sponsor, [MIRI](http://intelligence.org/), was located. Yet as I’ve gotten to know this region better in the year and a half... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WzPJRNYWhMXQTEj69/a-map-of-bay-area-memespace |
# Prisoner's Dilemma vs the Afterlife
I've had a thought I don't recall having encountered before described quite this way; but, given my past experiences with such thoughts, and the fact that it involves evo-psych, I currently peg my confidence in this idea at around 10%. But just in case this particular idea rose to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QsdD4Xjwk2JBdzcuq/prisoner-s-dilemma-vs-the-afterlife |
# Inferential silence
Every now and then, I write an LW comment on some topic and feel that the contents of my comment pretty much settles the issue decisively. Instead, the comment seems to get ignored entirely - it either gets very few votes or none, nobody responds to it, and the discussion generally continues as i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZfWLsDD8KKSFR3MLB/inferential-silence |
# What makes us think _any_ of our terminal values aren't based on a misunderstanding of reality?
Let's say Bob's terminal value is to travel back in time and ride a dinosaur.
It is instrumentally rational for Bob to study physics so he can learn how to build a time machine. As he learns more physics, Bob realizes th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w34jdJb6AAAb3MWy4/what-makes-us-think-_any_-of-our-terminal-values-aren-t |
# Bayesian probability as an approximate theory of uncertainty?
Many people believe that Bayesian probability is an exact theory of uncertainty, and other theories are imperfect approximations. In this post I'd like to tentatively argue the opposite: that Bayesian probability is an imperfect approximation of what we w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhb54ZC72Y2KkgEeG/bayesian-probability-as-an-approximate-theory-of-uncertainty |
# Intelligence Amplification and Friendly AI
Part of the series [AI Risk and Opportunity: A Strategic Analaysis](/lw/ajm/ai_risk_and_opportunity_a_strategic_analysis/). Previous articles on this topic: [Some Thoughts on Singularity Strategies](/lw/6mi/some_thoughts_on_singularity_strategies/), [Intelligence enhancemen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jmgyfDYDDYs7YpqJg/intelligence-amplification-and-friendly-ai |
# I played the AI Box Experiment again! (and lost both games)
AI Box Experiment Update #3
------------------------------
This post is an update to my previous AI box experiment where I won against SoundLogic. [If you have not read that yet, please do so.](/r/discussion/lw/ij4/i_attempted_the_ai_box_experiment_agai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oexwJBd3zAjw9Cru8/i-played-the-ai-box-experiment-again-and-lost-both-games |
# Making Fun of Things is Easy
Making fun of things is actually really easy if you try even a little bit. Nearly anything can be made fun of, and in practice nearly anything is made fun of. This is concerning for several reasons.
First, if you are trying to do something, whether or not people are making fun of it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/srAdo8k7De8mvvngr/making-fun-of-things-is-easy |
# Why aren't there more forum-blogs like LW?
LW has a unique format. It is a forum-blog.
It is not a forum in the traditional sense. In traditional forums you cannot have long, essay-like posts (technically you can, but somehow the culture discourages it). Also, visually the top-level post appears separate and isn't ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e9PqPpivXdKA2nZRZ/why-aren-t-there-more-forum-blogs-like-lw |
# The Anti-Placebo Effect
Just about everyone is familiar with the placebo effect at this point. What I've discovered through my personal studies working with people suffering from anxiety and depression is that there is actually a significant related effect, which I have dubbed the _anti-placebo effect_.
Google s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ycg5eAwoSbBdMWCLn/the-anti-placebo-effect |
# Reading habits/techniques/strategies (second post on the topic)
I'm looking to build up a “tool-box” of strategies/techniques/habits for reading non-fiction effectively and efficiently.
I’ve already posted on this topic; below, I’ve tried to distill/summarize some of strategies shared by Less Wrong users and thos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTfG5CQZXLRFJcco9/reading-habits-techniques-strategies-second-post-on-the |
# Estimation as a game
I was inspired to write this post after reading [Gunnar_Zarncke](/user/Gunnar_Zarncke/)'s [Raising numerate children](/r/discussion/lw/iha/raising_numerate_children/).
Developing rational patterns of thought in children is very important and I'm glad Gunnar brought that issue up.
I wanted to s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YJnLQeenXrxwNeZH8/estimation-as-a-game |
# Book Review: Naïve Set Theory (MIRI course list)
I'm reviewing the books on the [MIRI course list](http://intelligence.org/courses/). I followed [Category Theory](/lw/ioo/book_review_basic_category_theory_for_computer/) with _Naïve Set Theory_, by Paul R. Halmos.
Naïve Set Theory
================
 some members teach "classes" on subjects they're passionate about. We've had informal courses on history, creative writing, English, etc. But recently some other classes have appeared that have made me worry seriously: astrology, divination,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZhWGp2Wax5ZSHabPY/a-muggle-studies-course |
# How to Become a 1000 Year Old Vampire
This is based on a concept we developed at the [Vancouver Rationalists](http://groups.google.com/group/vancouver-rationalists) meetup.
Different experiences level a person up at different rates. You could work some boring job all your life and be 60 and not be much more awesome... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5QpufhoH2ASnppsjs/how-to-become-a-1000-year-old-vampire |
# Rationality, competitiveness and akrasia
Here's an internal dialogue I just had.
**Q:** How do we test rationality skills?
**A:** We haven't come up with a comprehensive test yet.
**Q:** Maybe we can test some part of rationality?
**A:** Sure. For example, you could test resistance to akrasia by making two conte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aARGW967NexuSrCwW/rationality-competitiveness-and-akrasia |
# Systematic Lucky Breaks
Many people can point to significant events that improved their lives in a positive way. They often refer to these as "lucky breaks", and take it for granted that such events are rare. But most of the time "lucky breaks" don't need to be uncommon-you can often reverse engineer the reasons beh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5iiG2CsR5a9983c6C/systematic-lucky-breaks |
# PSA: Very important policy change at Cryonics Institute
In the past, the [Cryonics Institute](http://www.cryonics.org/) has had a policy that said that they would not accept anyone who is not a member. This has [changed](http://www.cryonics.org/emergency-situations/deceased-non-member). The policy now is that someon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hLptdRFykkANXcBwg/psa-very-important-policy-change-at-cryonics-institute |
# Crush Your Uncertainty
Bayesian epistemology and decision theory provide a rigorous foundation for dealing with mixed or ambiguous evidence, uncertainty, and risky decisions. You can't always get the epistemic conditions that classical techniques like logic or maximum liklihood require, so this is seriously valuable... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G9hfw5SrEPfWPzomF/crush-your-uncertainty |
# The best 15 words
People want to tell everything instead of telling the best 15 words. They want to learn everything instead of the best 15 words. In this thread, instead post the best 15-words from a book you've read recently (or anything else). **It has to stand on its own.** It's not a summary, the whole value... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3tFmWHD6Zqy7DKEMG/the-best-15-words |
# How do you say no?
Some people seem to be a bit too generous for their own good. I know a precious few people who are especially good at saying "no" when asked to take on new responsibilities that would put them over their limits. I love working with people like that because I can always trust them to tell me when i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xGrrZq8eKKHLGgCiM/how-do-you-say-no |
# October Monthly Bragging Thread
Since it had a decent amount of traffic until a good two weeks into September (and I thought it was a good idea), I'm reviving this thread.
[Joshua_Blaine](http://lesswrong.com/user/Joshua_Blaine/):
> In an attempt to encourage more people to _actually do awesome things_ (a la instr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S8NoABniT58xzNHYq/october-monthly-bragging-thread |
# Schelling Point Strategy Training
There's a category of game-theoretic scenario called Battle of the Sexes, which is commonly used to demonstrate coordination problems. Two cinema-goers, traditionally a husband and wife, have agreed to go to the cinema, but haven't decided on what to see beforehand. Of the two films... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eDhKJ4SaKgS25Rf7t/schelling-point-strategy-training |
# How to Learn from Experts
The key difference between experts and beginners is the quality of their abstractions. Masters of a field mentally organize information in a way that's relevant to the tasks at hand. Amateurs may know as many facts and details as experts but group them in haphazard or irrelevant ways.
For ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MCMjz2B65sZyr4HLH/how-to-learn-from-experts |
# Ganesalingam and Gowers on automated theorem-proving
Ganesalingam and Gowers recently released an [ArXiV preprint](http://arxiv.org/abs/1309.4501) of their article "A fully automatic problem solver with human-style output" about a theorem-proving program they have written that generates _human-readable output_. Gowe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4K8sTathEnEnPsHMQ/ganesalingam-and-gowers-on-automated-theorem-proving |
# Megameetup on December 13-15th, NYC
This winter, we'll be hosting a megameetup on December 13th-15th. This is the weekend of the [Winter Solstice](http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/244974495/brighter-than-today-a-secular-solstice), a big event we're putting together the rationality, humanist and transhumanist comm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cb4LcmcHDSuRrowae/megameetup-on-december-13-15th-nyc |
# Superintelligence fiction - "Understand", by Ted Chiang
[http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/stories/under.htm?2](http://www.infinityplus.co.uk/stories/under.htm?2). 15-30 min read time, rated "pretty good" by me.
There are a couple of interesting features of this story that I would like to discuss - but I don't want to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DXuxG3cyAD2rDq56C/superintelligence-fiction-understand-by-ted-chiang |
# Advice for a smart 8-year-old bored with school
Although my 8-year-old son likes his teacher, he is frequently bored at school. He attends a high quality suburban public school in the United States. He has a lot of traits in common with LessWrong readers, and we would like advice for what he can do to counter his... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2avAsf898kdPZW4N4/advice-for-a-smart-8-year-old-bored-with-school |
# A Voting Puzzle, Some Political Science, and a Nerd Failure Mode
In grade school, I read a series of books titled _Sideways Stories from Wayside School_ by Louis Sachar, who you may know as the author of the novel _Holes_ which was made into a movie in 2003. The series included two books of math problems, _Sideways ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CcC8MocynqKPmMPwL/a-voting-puzzle-some-political-science-and-a-nerd-failure |
# The selfish reason to write something for Ada Lovelace Day
Last October there was a [discussion post](/lw/ezb/happy_ada_lovelace_day/) on Ada Lovelace Day, and it met with something of a lukewarm reception. Fair enough. There are legitimate criticisms of this particular blogosphere event, and people are welcome to s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sCNS6yatbpvtQRro3/the-selfish-reason-to-write-something-for-ada-lovelace-day |
# Does the simulation argument even need simulations?
The [simulation argument](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Simulation_argument), as I understand it:
1. Subjectively, existing as a human in the real, physical universe is indistinguishable from existing as a simulated human in a simulated universe
2. Anthropicall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBHsFCeAMSqMD7Td7/does-the-simulation-argument-even-need-simulations |
# How habits work and how you may control them
Some highlights from [The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life And Business](http://www.amazon.com/Power-Habit-What-Life-Business/dp/1400069289/) by Charles Duhigg, a book which seems like an invaluable resource for pretty much everyone who wants to improve their ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wMTZLZZmZEbXdoMD/how-habits-work-and-how-you-may-control-them |
# Interesting critique of British education by outgoing advisor (warning: some politics)
The soon-to-be-resigning Dominic Cummings, advisor to the Education Secretary of the Coalition government, has released a [250-page manifesto](http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/804396/some-thoughts-on-education-and-political.p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BkDGfZey5p8YdSJvH/interesting-critique-of-british-education-by-outgoing |
# On the importance of taking limits: Infinite Spheres of Utility
I had a discussion recently with some Less Wrongers about a decision problem involving infinities, which appears to have a paradoxical solution. We have been warned by Jaynes and others to be careful about taking the proper limits when infinities are in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jRK5syD9MXGc4jYgv/on-the-importance-of-taking-limits-infinite-spheres-of |
# Research interests I don't currently have time to develop alone
EDIT: added the "rights of parents" and "simulation hypothesis" research interests.
I've started a lot of research projects and have a lot of research interests that I don't currently have time to develop on my own. So I'm putting the research interest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DrKXZXYec8HJpsavQ/research-interests-i-don-t-currently-have-time-to-develop |
# Teaching rationality to kids?
I'm finally getting around to reading "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Much of it I had already learned on LW and elsewhere. Maybe that's why my strongest impression from the book is how accessible it is. Simple sentences, clear and vivid examples, easy-to-follow exercises, a remarkable lack ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wSEGsjDPtSWkAtXce/teaching-rationality-to-kids |
# Trusting Expert Consensus
I recently read Bryan Caplan's _The Myth Of The Rational Voter._ It's an excellent book in a lot of ways, and one of those ways is how it got me thinking about the issue of expert consensus. It's pushed me more towards thinking that hard data on what the experts in a given field believe abo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R8YpYTq8LoD3k948L/trusting-expert-consensus |
# [Link] Low-Hanging Poop
**Related:** [Son of Low Hanging Fruit](/r/discussion/lw/h4u/link_son_of_lowhanging_fruit/)
[Another post](https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/low-hanging-poop/) on finding low hanging fruit from [Gregory Cochran](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregory_Cochran)'s and [Henry Harpending](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9CGAffRSj4TD7LkcH/link-low-hanging-poop |
# Does Goal Setting Work?
**tl;dr** There's some disagreement over whether setting goals is a good idea. Anecdotally, enjoyment in setting goals and success at accomplishing them varies between people, for various possible reasons. Publicly setting goals may reduce motivation by providing a status gain before the goal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BCKgFy2uq24JoJAjb/does-goal-setting-work |
# How to Beat Procrastination (to some degree) (if you're identical to me)
So, you procrastinate. A lot. And it's a really big problem in your life, and so you really want to, y'know, stop procrastinating. But for some reason, it's just not that easy.
So, why do you procrastinate?
It's probably a really hard questio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbdJr6CkCpg6ixqy5/how-to-beat-procrastination-to-some-degree-if-you-re |
# Better Rationality Through Lucid Dreaming
_Note: this post is no longer endorsed by the author, for reasons partially described [here](/lw/kxy/simulate_and_defer_to_more_rational_selves/bbb2)._
_**In the spirit of** [radioing back to describe a path](/lw/bd/my_way/):_
The truly absurd thing about dreams lies not w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6MNjzszLa2w8teDxs/better-rationality-through-lucid-dreaming |
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