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# 28 social psychology studies from *Experiments With People* (Frey & Gregg, 2017)
I'm reading a very informative *and* fun book about human social psychology, [*Experiments With People*](https://www.amazon.com/Experiments-People-Kurt-P-Frey/dp/1138282111) (2nd ed, 2018).
> ... 28 social psychological experiments tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tvHJ2Zkkn3TBWqcNK/28-social-psychology-studies-from-experiments-with-people |
# Accelerate without humanity: Summary of Nick Land's philosophy
I took note of the philosopher Nick Land from reading about [posthumanism on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posthumanism).
> A more pessimistic alternative to transhumanism in which humans will not be enhanced, but rather eventually replaced by... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oYm9L95LQXrEwNEZY/accelerate-without-humanity-summary-of-nick-land-s |
# Reasonable Explanations
Today I watched a friend do calibration practice and was reminded of how wide you have to cast your net to get well-calibrated 90% confidence. This is true even when the questions aren't gotchas, just because you won't think of all the ways something could be wildly unlike your quick estimate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SDQuYNC9hRsud4ksE/reasonable-explanations |
# Is "physical nondeterminism" a meaningful concept?
Background: Our mental models of the universe can contain uncertainty or probability-links, as in a causal network. One may have a deterministic understanding of a phenomenon if the probability-values are all 0 and 1.
Question: Beyond that, is it meaningful to dist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NuRCvo23HTYJEepB/is-physical-nondeterminism-a-meaningful-concept |
# Does the _timing_ of practice, relative to sleep, make a difference for skill consolidation?
It is well known that sleep (both mid-day naps and nighttime sleep) has a large effect on the efficacy of motor skill acquisition. Performance on a newly learned task improves, often markedly, following a period of sleep.
A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CajbkL342tgxDuRLF/does-the-_timing_-of-practice-relative-to-sleep-make-a |
# Does scientific productivity correlate with IQ?
Anders Ericsson, in his popular book _Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise_, claims that though one may need a reasonably high IQ to even be a scientist, after that level, IQ is irrelevant to scientific success.
> The average IQ of scientists is certainly h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DhNQsjEmSqG4QWhtm/does-scientific-productivity-correlate-with-iq |
# Is there a guide to 'Problems that are too fast to Google'?
It seems to me like problems come in a variety of required response speeds, but there's a natural threshold to distinguish fast and slow: whether or not you can Google it. The slow ones, like getting an eviction notice from your landlord or a cancer diagnos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yfg2AmSmkvQ4AEomf/is-there-a-guide-to-problems-that-are-too-fast-to-google |
# In physical eschatology, is Aestivation a sound strategy?
In [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.03394), Anders Sandberg, Stuart Armstrong and Milan M. Cirkovic argue that
> If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to aestivate until the far future in order to exploit the low temperat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYPuXrqwmRNRNHH4w/in-physical-eschatology-is-aestivation-a-sound-strategy-1 |
# Preference conditional on circumstances and past preference satisfaction
I've [mentioned conditional preferences before](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ic8yoGBMYLtaJkbxZ/conditional-meta-preferences). These are preferences that are dependent on facts about the world, for example "I'd want to believe X if there are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uHb2LDW3LGhBMyq74/preference-conditional-on-circumstances-and-past-preference |
# Research Agenda v0.9: Synthesising a human's preferences into a utility function
I'm now in a position where I can see a possible route to a safe/survivable/friendly Artificial Intelligence being developed. I'd give a 10+% chance of it being possible this way, and a 95% chance that some of these ideas will be very u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into |
# Discussion Thread: The AI Does Not Hate You by Tom Chivers
This post is provided as convenient place to discussion of the new book, [The AI Does Not Hate You](https://www.amazon.com/Does-Not-Hate-You-Superintelligence-ebook/dp/B07K258VCV) by Tom Chivers, which covers LessWrong and rationalist community.
> **The AI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EYKBME45wWwRW3MLh/discussion-thread-the-ai-does-not-hate-you-by-tom-chivers |
# Reason isn't magic
Here's a story some people [like to tell](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/) about the limits of reason. There's this plant, manioc, that grows easily in some places and has a lot of calories in it, so it was a staple for some indigenous South Americans s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TMFNQoRZxM4CuRCY6/reason-isn-t-magic |
# Is the "business cycle" an actual economic principle?
E.g. [Investopedia: Business Cycle](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/businesscycle.asp) has a section "Stages of the Business Cycle":
> All business cycles are characterized by several different stages, as seen below.
> **1\. Expansion.** This is the first ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n6FTwZRki8po2gBvw/is-the-business-cycle-an-actual-economic-principle-1 |
# Magic Arena Bot Drafting
Epistemic Status: Attempting to be useful and to learn via exploration. Real proposals. Content assumes familiarity with Magic: The Gathering booster drafting, but does not much depend on a knowledge of deep Magic strategy, so it holds potential interest for those interested in game narrow A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLzA746mERFsZEq8j/magic-arena-bot-drafting |
# 1hr talk: Intro to AGI safety
This is an hour-long talk (actually ~45 minutes plus questions) that I gave on AGI safety technical research, for an audience of people in STEM but with no prior knowledge of the field. My goal was to cover all the basic questions that someone might have when considering whether to work... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbZDdupuffc4Xgm7H/1hr-talk-intro-to-agi-safety |
# LW2.0: Community, Culture, and Intellectual Progress
This post presents one lens I (Ruby) use to think about LessWrong 2.0 and what we’re trying to accomplish. While it does not capture everything important, it does capture much and explains a little how our disparate-seeming projects can combine into a single coher... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nBcvEFXw4Yoz7rSDk/lw2-0-community-culture-and-intellectual-progress-1 |
# LW2.0: Technology Platform for Intellectual Progress
This post presents one lens I (Ruby) use to think about LessWrong 2.0 and what we’re trying to accomplish. While it does not capture everything important, it does capture much and explains a little how our disparate-seeming projects can combine into a single coher... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZvjYRmkTfWxhTXCaT/lw2-0-technology-platform-for-intellectual-progress-1 |
# Arguing Definitions
_This post is part of my_ _[Hazardous Guide To Rationality.](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pKxyvLyhEFxHgogdD)_ _I don't expect this to be new or exciting to frequent LW people, and I would appreciate comments and feedback in light of intents for the sequence, as outlined in the above link._
Here's... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JqQq2HXFpjJRWub2o/arguing-definitions |
# Words Aren't Type Safe
_This post is part of my_ _[Hazardous Guide To Rationality.](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pKxyvLyhEFxHgogdD)_ _I don't expect this to be new or exciting to frequent LW people, and I would appreciate comments and feedback in light of intents for the sequence, as outlined in the above link._
∫x... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YvWfbLunzhiFm77GG/words-aren-t-type-safe |
# Defending points you don't care about
_This post is part of my_ _[Hazardous Guide To Rationality.](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pKxyvLyhEFxHgogdD)_ _I don't expect this to be new or exciting to frequent LW people, and I would appreciate comments and feedback in light of intents for the sequence, as outlined in the ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eCJJyHLGxdQMYEa8a/defending-points-you-don-t-care-about |
# LW Dev question: FB-style tagging?
As LW is an intellectual \*\*community\*\* where people get to know each other and know "who knows what, who's working on what" it seems like something like tagging people FB-style in specific posts/comments is a very low-hanging fruit. (Of course you should be able to silence peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N3TtJX5Hv495K76yQ/lw-dev-question-fb-style-tagging |
# A case for strategy research:
what it is and why we need more of it
Authors: Siebe Rozendal, Justin Shovelain, David Kristoffersson
_[Crossposted](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oovy5XXdCL3TPwgLE/a-case-for-strategy-research-what-it-is-and-why-we-need-more) to the Effective Altruism Forum_
Overview
===... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pE5LgmF9mJptvund9/a-case-for-strategy-research-what-it-is-and-why-we-need-more |
# Should rationality be a movement?
_This post is a quick write-up of a discussion that I recently had with two members of the rationality community. For reasons of simplicity I'll present them as holding a single viewpoint that is a merger of both their arguments. All parties seemed to be in agreement about the long-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g2fQuAD6qpBERucwu/should-rationality-be-a-movement |
# Is your uncertainty resolvable?
I was chatting with Andrew Critch about the idea of [Reacts on LessWrong](http://lesswrong.com/posts/SDELNzyboMpZpDwSg/fb-discord-style-reacts).
Specifically, the part where I thought there are particular epistemic states that _don’t have words yet_, but should. And that a function o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wiLzN4jdAsW2TQtfS/is-your-uncertainty-resolvable-1 |
# Modeling AGI Safety Frameworks with Causal Influence Diagrams
We have written a paper that represents various frameworks for designing safe AGI (e.g., RL with reward modeling, CIRL, debate, etc.) as Causal Influence Diagrams (CIDs), to help us compare frameworks and better understand the corresponding agent incentiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE5DL6XeomYxFab74/modeling-agi-safety-frameworks-with-causal-influence-1 |
# "The Bitter Lesson", an article about compute vs human knowledge in AI
The Bitter Lesson
Rich Sutton
(This is a link post, I am not Rich Sutton)
The biggest lesson that can be read from 70 years of AI research is that general methods that leverage computation are ultimately the most effective, and by a large ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x5BFqov8rt2duhMvH/the-bitter-lesson-an-article-about-compute-vs-human |
# The Hacker Learns to Trust
_This is a linkpost for some interesting discussions of info security norms in AI. I threw the post below together in 2 hours, just to have a bunch of quotes and links for people, and to have the context in one place for a discussion here on LW (makes it easier for [common knowledge](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/36fxiKdEqswkedHyG/the-hacker-learns-to-trust |
# How hard is it for altruists to discuss going against bad equilibria?
_Epistemic status: This post is flagrantly obscure, which makes it all the harder for me to revise it to reflect my current opinions. By the nature of the subject, it's difficult to give object-level examples. If you're considering reading this, I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zj9jWggQAxSw46HwB/how-hard-is-it-for-altruists-to-discuss-going-against-bad |
# The Foundational Toolbox for Life: Introduction
**(Co-authored with Sailor Vulcan)**
**Follows from:**
**[What Do We Mean by Rationality?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcZCwxFiZzE6X7nsv/what-do-we-mean-by-rationality)**
**[No Really, Why Aren't Rationalists Winning?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bRGbdG58cJ8... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GMTjNh5oxk4a3qbgZ/the-foundational-toolbox-for-life-introduction-1 |
# How does one get invited to the alignment forum?
At the moment there is a link on the Alignment Forum to apply for membership. You can apply by submitting papers, blog posts or comments. However, there is very little in the way of detail of what kind of work they expect they expect in order for you to have a reasona... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAHyuEzYndxDjzXti/how-does-one-get-invited-to-the-alignment-forum |
# [AN #58] Mesa optimization: what it is, and why we should care
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XWPJfgBymBbL3jdFd/an-58-mesa-optimization-what-it-is-and-why-we-should-care |
# Being the (Pareto) Best in the World
The generalized efficient markets (GEM) principle says, roughly, that things which would give you a big windfall of money and/or status, will not be easy. If such an opportunity were available, someone else would have already taken it. You will never find a $100 bill on the floor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvN2QQpKTuEzgkZHY/being-the-pareto-best-in-the-world |
# Machine Learning Projects on IDA
### TLDR
We wrote a 20-page [document](http://owainevans.github.io/pdfs/evans_ida_projects.pdf) that explains IDA and outlines potential Machine Learning projects about IDA. This post gives an overview of the document.
### What is IDA?
Iterated Distillation and Amplification (IDA) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y9xD78kufNsF7wL6f/machine-learning-projects-on-ida |
# Causal Reality vs Social Reality
_Epistemic status: this is a new model for me, certainly rough around the joints, but I think there’s something real here._
This post begins with a confusion. For years, I have been baffled that people, watching their loved ones [wither and decay and die](https://slatestarcodex.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xqAnKW46FqzPLnGmH/causal-reality-vs-social-reality |
# What's up with self-esteem?
Often, people think about their self-worth/self-confidence/self-esteem/self-efficacy/self-worth in ways which seem really strange from a simplistic decision-theoretic perspective. (I'm going to treat all those terms as synonyms, but, feel free to differentiate between them as you see fit!... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2gtWdrv8jHGgvZeJ5/what-s-up-with-self-esteem-1 |
# Arbital Scrape V2
I've scraped [http://arbital.com](http://arbital.com/) as the site is unusably slow and hard to search for me.
[https://drive.google.com/open?id=1b7dKhOzfMpFwngAeI8efeOzv147Lv_mx](https://drive.google.com/open?id=1b7dKhOzfMpFwngAeI8efeOzv147Lv_mx)
[https://mega.nz/#!SUQg1YxS!G7bmpNipcl1Ztugvr6l6s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pSh54GoJJqfHdndk/arbital-scrape-v2 |
# Research Agenda in reverse: what *would* a solution look like?
I constructed my [AI alignment research agenda](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into) piece by piece, stumbling around in the dark and going down many false and true avenues.
But ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TR3eqQ2fnfKWzxxHL/research-agenda-in-reverse-what-would-a-solution-look-like |
# Writing children's picture books
[the text of the post is pasted here, for redundancy]
Here’s an exercise for explaining and refining your opinions about some domain, X:
> Imagine writing a 10-20 page children’s picture book about topic X. Be fully honest and don’t hide things (assume the child can handle bein... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2xiNSQmxayDteKDS2/writing-children-s-picture-books |
# Epistemic Spot Check: The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance
[Epistemic spot checks](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/) typically consist of references from a book, selected by my interest level, checked against either the book’s source or my own research. This one... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8EmPhoxgSXGSdq4Cb/epistemic-spot-check-the-role-of-deliberate-practice-in-the |
# What does the word "collaborative" mean in the phrase "collaborative truthseeking"?
I keep hearing this phrase, "collaborative truthseeking." Question: what kind of epistemic work is the word "collaborative" doing?
Like, when you (respectively I) say a thing and I (respectively you) hear it, that's going to result ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uvqd3YiBcrPxXzxQM/what-does-the-word-collaborative-mean-in-the-phrase |
# Apocalypse, corrupted
*Epistemic status: don't take it seriously*
In a post apocalyptic setting, the world would be run by the socially skilled and the well connected, with corruption and nepotism ruling.
I say that at the start, because I've been trying to analyse the attraction of post-apocalyptic settings: why ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hziyzu7x6uv6yP9Nt/apocalypse-corrupted |
# Embedded Agency: Not Just an AI Problem
_Requisite Background: [Embedded Agency Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh)_
Biology
-------
Fast forward a few years, and imagine that we have a complete physical model of an e-coli bacteria. We know every function of every gene, kinetics of every react... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFb8L4omGMk2kMK3K/embedded-agency-not-just-an-ai-problem |
# What are principled ways for penalising complexity in practice?
Previously I [asked about](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q9hDFkvCSwi6cwPGy/how-is-solomonoff-induction-calculated-in-practice-1) Solomonoff induction but essentially I asked the wrong question. Richard_Kennaway pointed me in the direction of an an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R6xaH3dxs3Xi4fkv6/what-are-principled-ways-for-penalising-complexity-in-1 |
# Is it good practice to write questions/comments on old posts you're trying to understand?
I've recently started working through AI safety posts written on LessWrong 1-3 years ago; in doing so I occasionally have questions/comments about the material. Is it considered good practice/in line with LW norms to write the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gysgvd2c9jWCLxQkb/is-it-good-practice-to-write-questions-comments-on-old-posts |
# How to deal with a misleading conference talk about AI risk?
Does it make sense to give a public response? Who would be able to do it?
The conference organizer, who had asked me to evaluate the talk, offered to interview me to set things straight. However, I don't know if that is sensible, and given my level of exp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PfgrNC59GxovY9DjL/how-to-deal-with-a-misleading-conference-talk-about-ai-risk |
# False assumptions and leaky abstractions in machine learning and AI safety
* The problems of e[mbedded agency](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.09469.pdf) are due to the notion of agency implicit in reinforcement learning being a leaky abstraction.
* Machine learning problem statements often makes assumptions that are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4QSzpN4ytZ4iqkze/false-assumptions-and-leaky-abstractions-in-machine-learning |
# Instead of "I'm anxious," try "I feel threatened"
_cw: teaching to learn_
I have a long history with anxiety, and I’m pretty good at noticing when it’s happening. The problem is that I’m always anxious. Noticing anxiety doesn’t snap me out of anxiety– in fact, it often produces meta-anxiety, anxiety about feeling a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GXAXRmp6wtX6uKg55/instead-of-i-m-anxious-try-i-feel-threatened |
# GreaterWrong Arbital Viewer
You can now view Arbital through GreaterWrong: [https://arbital.greaterwrong.com/](https://arbital.greaterwrong.com/)
Some of Arbital's features are supported and some aren't; let me know in the comments if there's anything you're particularly missing.
Thanks to [emmab](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Je5pcnWcMwhGq849p/greaterwrong-arbital-viewer |
# Self-confirming prophecies, and simplified Oracle designs
I've got [a paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.05541.pdf) on two Oracle[^ordef] designs: the counterfactual Oracle and the low bandwidth Oracle. In this post, I'll revisit these designs and simplify them, presenting them in terms of sequence prediction for an ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wJ3AqNPM7W4nfY5Bk/self-confirming-prophecies-and-simplified-oracle-designs |
# Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative
This is a linkpost for a research initiative at MIT I just discovered while following up on some earlier reading. I have linked to the Publications page to make it easiest for people to get in and start perusing.
The goal of this initiative is to improve state-of-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQQ856xzhy8WSjs36/systems-engineering-advancement-research-initiative |
# What's the best explanation of intellectual generativity?
Lately I've found myself wanting to make the argument that intellectual generativity is very important, and that you should be very careful with subtle forces that can corrode it.
"Generativity" is the sort of word that seems to come up a lot in casual conve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krkxB3ezP4SH78Dup/what-s-the-best-explanation-of-intellectual-generativity |
# Book Review: Why Are The Prices So Damn High?
Economist Alex Tabarrok has recently come out with a short book, “Why are the prices so Damn High”, available in full PDF [here.](https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/helland-tabarrok_why-are-the-prices-so-damn-high_v1.pdf)
Since the 1950’s, the inflation-adjusted cost... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FCMfToFnRXhsfpfQB/book-review-why-are-the-prices-so-damn-high |
# Aligning a toy model of optimization
Suppose I have a magic box Opt that takes as input a program U:{0,1}n→R, and produces Opt(U)=argmaxxU(x), with only n times the cost of a single evaluation of U. Could we use this box to build an aligned AI, or would broad access to such a box result in doom?
This capability is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H5gXpFtg93qDMZ6Xn/aligning-a-toy-model-of-optimization |
# Whence decision exhaustion?
Many people experience something we might call decision or executive exhaustion: after making a lot of decisions, it can be hard to make more decisions and to exert "willpower". Yet, this seems odd because we are constantly making decisions all the time in some sense, choosing to do what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YJwtWwRaCK4FA9kd8/whence-decision-exhaustion |
# Conceptual Problems with UDT and Policy Selection
Abstract
========
UDT doesn't give us conceptual tools for dealing with multiagent coordination problems. There may have initially been some hope, because a UDT player can select a policy which incentivises others to cooperate, or because UDT can reason (EDT-style) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9sYzoRnmqmxZm4Whf/conceptual-problems-with-udt-and-policy-selection |
# How can we measure creativity?
Status: have spent about two hours on this.
As part of measuring how [marginal productivity changes over time](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pWiAuhBmWskgESM4R/how-long-can-people-be-productive-in-time-period), I need to know how to assess creativity. One promising test for that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/smjMNYeS2myBpqYGn/how-can-we-measure-creativity |
# Do children lose 'childlike curiosity?' Why?
A common story goes:
Young children love asking 'why', and they often have an earnest curiosity about it that is rare in adults. Something about the process of growing up seems to cause that childlike curiosity to stagnate.
There's a lot of compelling explanations about... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jm7xfyGWBTdqZ9JGo/do-children-lose-childlike-curiosity-why |
# Being Wrong Doesn't Mean You're Stupid and Bad (Probably)
Sometimes, people are reluctant to admit that they were wrong about something, because they're afraid that "You are wrong about this" carries inextricable connotations of "You are stupid and bad." But this behavior is, itself, wrong, for _at least_ two reason... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6dmKBjc7XarcQMRYW/being-wrong-doesn-t-mean-you-re-stupid-and-bad-probably |
# Is AlphaZero any good without the tree search?
One component of AlphaZero is a neural net which takes a board position as input, and outputs a guess about how good the position is and what a good next move would be. It combines this neural net with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) that plays out different ways the gam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HAMsX36kCbbeju6M7/is-alphazero-any-good-without-the-tree-search |
# The Competence Myth
When I was a kid, everything seemed sort of goofy, but there was also a sense that it wasn't really _supposed_ to be competent. Yes, a lot of stuff targeted at kids was obviously dumb and bad, but it was for kids after all -- grown-ups knew what they were doing, and once we were grown up we would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWGQDdoWwyE7qhRif/the-competence-myth |
# What's the most "stuck" you've been with an argument, that eventually got resolved?
I was trying to write up a post about getting stuck in arguments, where you thought something was obvious, and said something like "A, therefore, B." And your partner says "but, X, therefore Y!"
And from you perspective, A is obviou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GK8qpXpDEmfdauZpc/what-s-the-most-stuck-you-ve-been-with-an-argument-that |
# An Increasingly Manipulative Newsfeed
**Co-written with Stuart Armstrong**
Treacherous turn vs sordid stumble
==================================
Nick Bostrom came up with the idea of a [treacherous turn](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B39GNTsN3HocW8KFo/superintelligence-11-the-treacherous-turn) for smart AIs.
> ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EpdXLNXyL4EYLFwF8/an-increasingly-manipulative-newsfeed |
# PlayStation Odysseys
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit.com](https://putanumonit.com/2019/06/25/playstation-odysseys/)
Note: heavy spoilers for one epic poem, minor spoilers for several epic video games.
Very related: [the Greek myths are about loneliness](https://putanumonit.com/2019/05/21/lonelinesses/).
“It is known.” – Dothraki saying
It is not known. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BNfL58ijGawgpkh9b/everybody-knows |
# The Right Way of Formulating a Problem?
[David Chapman Writes](https://meaningness.com/metablog/how-to-think)[,](https://meaningness.com/metablog/how-to-think,)
> Finding a good formulation for a problem is often most of the work of solving it.
I agree with this intuitively, and I feel like I have seen this princi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cjhgfnWW2G3YXzJCL/the-right-way-of-formulating-a-problem |
# Re-introducing Selection vs Control for Optimization (Optimizing and Goodhart Effects - Clarifying Thoughts, Part 1)
This is the first post in a small sequence I'm writing on "Optimizing and Goodhart Effects - Clarifying Thoughts" (I have re-organized to make part 2, "Revisiting What Optimization Means" separate.)
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2neeoZ7idRbZf4eNC/re-introducing-selection-vs-control-for-optimization |
# How/would you want to consume shortform posts?
The LessWrong team might be putting more work into the shortform concept in the next couple weeks. I wanted to check in about what specific features people might want for that.
Right now, some users set up "shortform feed" posts, which are a hacky way to give yourself ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fKggLRamq6eRdReoF/how-would-you-want-to-consume-shortform-posts |
# Opting into Experimental LW Features
We recently added an "beta testing" option for LessWrong. If you go to [your account page](https://www.lesswrong.com/account), you'll see a checkbox for _"Opt into experimental features"._
Right now, the primary feature under development that isn't yet released to the public is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sSEHPLH2yWBPCeRbN/opting-into-experimental-lw-features |
# Self-consciousness wants to make everything about itself
Here's a pattern that shows up again and again in discourse:
A: This thing that's happening is bad.
B: Are you saying I'm a bad person for participating in this? How mean of you! I'm not a bad person, I've done X, Y, and Z!
It isn't always this explic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bwkZD6uskCQBJDCeC/self-consciousness-wants-to-make-everything-about-itself |
# Open Thread July 2019
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, you can put it here.
Also, if you are new to LessWrong and want to introduce yourself, this is the place to do it. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019 |
# What was the official story for many top physicists congregating in Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project?
There is a consensus among most people I know that *if* top researchers are necessary for the successful development of AGI, then it would be impossible to do in in secrecy, because the world would notice top... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4u4956oLA43twBTtA/what-was-the-official-story-for-many-top-physicists |
# Blatant lies are the best kind!
**Mala**: But then why do people get so indignant about blatant lies?
**Noa**: You mean, indignant when others call out blatant lies? I see more of that, though they often accuse the person calling out the lie of being unduly harsh.
**Mala**: Sure, but you can't deny - you've seen y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KzAG4yWQJosmEjHe2/blatant-lies-are-the-best-kind |
# What's state-of-the-art in AI understanding of theory of mind?
Sparked by [Eric Topol](http://www.econtalk.org/eric-topol-on-deep-medicine/), I've been thinking lately about biological complexity, psychology, and AI safety.
A prominent concern in the AI safety community is the problem of [instrumental convergence](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Kz7YLLujHDNip2Wq/what-s-state-of-the-art-in-ai-understanding-of-theory-of |
# What are good resources for learning functional programming?
I'm looking to use [the 3 Books Technique](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oPEWyxJjRo4oKHzMu/the-3-books-technique-for-learning-a-new-skilll) to learn functional programming. Does anyone have any "What", "Why' or "How" resources for functional programming ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kgq6qe4YEuEXuRChN/what-are-good-resources-for-learning-functional-programming |
# Let's Read: an essay on AI Theology
Follow me as I read through an essay on AI Theology and give my comments. [*Good Shepherds* (O’Gieblyn, 2019)](https://believermag.com/good-shepherds/)
> It’s not a human move,” said one former champion. “I’ve never seen a human play this move.” Even AlphaGo’s creator could not e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oNne8Q8Dq6R5f7XuZ/let-s-read-an-essay-on-ai-theology |
# How to handle large numbers of questions?
Within a few weeks, I expect to have gotten the Related Questions feature up to a standard where it makes sense to start using it a lot.
Even if I were the \*only\* one using it extensively, I'd expect to generate very large numbers of questions. (For two frames of referenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Qj3e6CLJFQYjAvgn/how-to-handle-large-numbers-of-questions |
# What product are you building?
_Epistemic status: It appears like it works for me. Not meant to be a hard/fast rule._
A frame I frequently examine conversations through is "are we building a product together, or not?"
Many conversations (online or in person) are "just sorta hanging out." Just-sorta-hanging-out can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2dNdHrGMT6QgqBFy/what-product-are-you-building |
# Learning biases and rewards simultaneously
I’ve finally uploaded to arXiv our work on [inferring human biases alongside IRL](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.09624), which was published at ICML 2019.
### Summary of the paper
#### The IRL Debate
Here’s a quick tour of the debate about inverse reinforcement learning (IRL... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xxnPxELC4jLKaFKqG/learning-biases-and-rewards-simultaneously |
# 87,000 Hours or: Thoughts on Home Ownership
Edited to add epistemic status and summary:
The basic thesis of this post is that, for many reasons, the volatility (riskiness) of buying a house are significantly higher than generally believed.
The considerations explored here are the result of discussions with a finan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X7G3HfRuMzCSBzgbM/87-000-hours-or-thoughts-on-home-ownership |
# Thank You, Old Man Jevons, For My Job
_\[Epistemic status: Half-truth.\]_
_\[CW: Microeconomics\]_
Sometime in the 1800s, some random English economist named William Stanley Jevons made an amazing discovery: The demand for coal power is elastic.
This may sound boring as fuck. That’s because it is. A lot of thing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7pNJ9aQxRMrWAnkmf/thank-you-old-man-jevons-for-my-job |
# Black hole narratives
Related to: [Self-consciousness wants to make everything about itself](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bwkZD6uskCQBJDCeC/self-consciousness-wants-to-make-everything-about-itself) (by [jessicata](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jessica-liu-taylor)), [UNIVERSAL LOVE, SAID THE CACTUS PERSON](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diFBzESLKvKoBetrr/black-hole-narratives |
# Musings on Cumulative Cultural Evolution and AI
This post might be interesting to you if you want a conceptual model of cumulative cultural evolution and/or you’re curious how cumulative cultural evolution impacts AI forecasting and development.
In particular, I’ll argue that cumulative cultural evolution makes one... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K686EFdXysfRBdob2/musings-on-cumulative-cultural-evolution-and-ai |
# How to make a giant whiteboard for $14 (plus nails)
All my friends love whiteboards, because they’re giant nerds. It’s only a good party when somebody starts trying to illustrating a point on the whiteboard. Also, to-do lists you can’t miss.
This isn’t my idea, but it’s good and I thought I’d share it. Home Depot a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/47kjJfP8Dhqd2p7xh/how-to-make-a-giant-whiteboard-for-usd14-plus-nails |
# LW authors: How many clusters of norms do you (personally) want?
_note: this post is about gathering data for "what might the archipelago model look like if implemented on LW", which is s separate question from "should the archipelago model be implemented on LW?"_
Periodically, I've argued for applying [Archipelago... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rob7tX4bmrLM93G3C/lw-authors-how-many-clusters-of-norms-do-you-personally-want |
# First application round of the EAF Fund
This is the first call for applications of the [EAF Fund](https://ea-foundation.org/grantmaking/).
Logistical info
---------------
* **Application deadline**: August 11, 2019
* **Funding available**: $424,170
* **Application form**: [https://forms.gle/82Px7J5L7f6H3tkY... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x45rFBzApoXautmg2/first-application-round-of-the-eaf-fund |
# Religion as Goodhart
This post is inspired by the SSC [Book Review: The Secret of Our Success](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/). To (double- or triple-)quote the relevant parts:
> the best hunting strategy requires randomizing
and
> If you’re generally predictable – an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BjThrfnArSDXgECmD/religion-as-goodhart |
# Is the sum individual informativeness of two independent variables no more than their joint informativeness?
Is it true that:
If I(X;Y) = 0 then I(S;X) + I(S;Y) <= I(S;X,Y)
Can you find a counterexample, or prove this and teach me your proof?
Someone showed me a simple analytic proof. I am still interested in se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hx2DN8JhpLbGHoLCt/is-the-sum-individual-informativeness-of-two-independent |
# Indifference: multiple changes, multiple agents
**Formalism developed with [Henrik Åslund](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/henrik-aslund).**
# The what and why of multiple indifference
There are certain [agent designs](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/safely-interruptible-agents/) where the agent can mov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XkuRKqXKAaMySbXCN/indifference-multiple-changes-multiple-agents |
# NIST: draft plan for AI standards development
The National Institute of Standards and Technology, a part of the United States Department of Commerce, has released a [draft plan](https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2019/07/02/plan_for_ai_standards_publicreview_2july2019.pdf) for public comment. It was ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wKNTjrSMZjRo3dgfQ/nist-draft-plan-for-ai-standards-development |
# [AN #59] How arguments for AI risk have changed over time
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyM... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMvbNuAis3SSphu7D/an-59-how-arguments-for-ai-risk-have-changed-over-time |
# Some Comments on Stuart Armstrong's "Research Agenda v0.9"
[Subject matter here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into-1).
**I: Intro**
I am extremely sympathetic to the program of AI safety by understanding value learning. Because of that sy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GHNokcgERpLJwJnLW/some-comments-on-stuart-armstrong-s-research-agenda-v0-9 |
# "Rationalizing" and "Sitting Bolt Upright in Alarm."
This is (sort of) a response to [Blatant lies are the best kind!](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KzAG4yWQJosmEjHe2/blatant-lies-are-the-best-kind), although I'd been working on this prior to that post getting published. This post explores similar issues through m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QB9eXzzQWBhq9YuB8/rationalizing-and-sitting-bolt-upright-in-alarm |
# The Results of My First LessWrong-inspired I Ching Divination
**Part A - Exploratory Research**
After reading ["Steelmanning Divination,"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnkbdwckdfHS2H22Q/steelmanning-divination-1) I was inspired to try it out. My question was "Should I begin using the I Ching for divination?" and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CYmCMMqLGwuGRtTjM/the-results-of-my-first-lesswrong-inspired-i-ching |
# How can I help research Friendly AI?
I've just started my journey toward a PhD in machine learning. My first steps are in computer vision. But my long term goal is to be able to help in the effort to solve the alignment problem and produce Friendly AI before any non-friendly alternatives emerge.
What sort of trajec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FeTDbBEvf4aNLtoSB/how-can-i-help-research-friendly-ai |
# Outline of NIST draft plan for AI standards
[Previously](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wKNTjrSMZjRo3dgfQ/nist-draft-plan-for-ai-standards-development) I posted on the [National Institute of Standards and Technology's plan](https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2019/07/02/plan_for_ai_standards_publicre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RpCkSY8rvfskBhkrb/outline-of-nist-draft-plan-for-ai-standards |
# Are there easy, low cost, ways to freeze personal cell samples for future therapies? And is this a good idea?
I happened to come across [this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nzeNA7TjmFeNHXhhp/an-alarming-fact-about-the-anti-aging-community) old post from 2015, that (in a sort of round about way) endorses freezing s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iBbi3E3CNDo4pasW/are-there-easy-low-cost-ways-to-freeze-personal-cell-samples |
# The I Ching Series (2/10): How should I prioritize my career-building projects?
**Note:** See comments for my actual writings in response to I Ching Hexagram interpretations. This main post is for meta-reflection on the experiment.
**The Rules:**
* No divination-related questions.
* I will do ten I Ching s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/73zickZaapGxcwcGj/the-i-ching-series-2-10-how-should-i-prioritize-my-career |
# Diversify Your Friendship Portfolio
In investing, a common piece of advice recommends a diversified portfolio - in other words, having investments from a wide range of areas to avoid a crash in one area wiping out all your investments. Similarly, I have found that it can be beneficial to have a diversified _friendsh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s6eMPmSJTYHNjpH6y/diversify-your-friendship-portfolio |
# Would you join the Society of the Free & Easy?
> Summary: This post describes a peer-supported, self-directed, free (_gratis y libre_) method of self-improvement by means of practical exercises designed to deliberately instill useful habits. We have just gone public and I invite you to join us.
The “Society of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krNuoicpfyJajR8ng/would-you-join-the-society-of-the-free-and-easy |
# Do bond yield curve inversions really indicate there is likely to be a recession?
I've seen some recent commentary that the bond yield curve indicates there is likely to be a recession in the next year.
For example, from the New York fed:[
https://www.newyorkfed.org/…/r…/capital\_markets/Prob\_Rec.pdf](fed:
https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YFME9Kvdt2tdpMdhc/do-bond-yield-curve-inversions-really-indicate-there-is |
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