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# Schism Begets Schism
**Related:** [On the importance of Less Wrong, or another single conversational locus](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8rYxw9xZfwy86jkpG/on-the-importance-of-less-wrong-or-another-single)
One thing that seems to be a pattern across the history of human organizations, projects, and even social s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gesKhsKaeQAHLzDsG/schism-begets-schism |
# How can guesstimates work?
_\[Epistemic status: background is very hand-wavy, but I'd rather post a rough question than no question at all. I'm very confident that the two ingredients -- illegible cultural evolution and guesstimation -- are real and important things. Though the relation between the two is more uncer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tkSvwYBCgEzd2HFaF/how-can-guesstimates-work |
# Magic is Dead, Give me Attention
_(cross posted from my [pers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ctBCPaD3yYimEHXPu/magic-is-dead-give-me-attention |
# The AI Timelines Scam
[epistemic status: that's just my opinion, man. I have highly suggestive evidence, not deductive proof, for a belief I sincerely hold]
*"If you see fraud and do not say fraud, you are a fraud."* --- [Nasim Taleb](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb)
I was talking with a collea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnQs55tjxWopCzKsk/the-ai-timelines-scam |
# Please give your links speaking names!
Bad:
> Shrimping is a fundamental drill for grappling, according to [this article](https://www.grapplearts.com/ultimate-guide-developing-bjj-hip-movement-shrimping/).
Good:
> Shrimping is a fundamental drill for grappling, according to [The Ultimate Guide to Developing BJJ H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ytStDZ7BaC23GvGPb/please-give-your-links-speaking-names |
# Modeling AI milestones to adjust AGI arrival estimates?
Is there a roadmap of major milestones AI researchers have to achieve through before AGI is here? I feel like this would be beneficial to update on AGI arrival timelines and adjust actions accordingly. Lately, a lot of things that can be classified as a milesto... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NnrssaWq2e4RpqANC/modeling-ai-milestones-to-adjust-agi-arrival-estimates |
# How much background technical knowledge do LW readers have?
When writing posts, it would be useful to know how much background technical knowledge LW readers have in various areas.
To that end, I set up a short [six-question survey](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdpEev_-vPM0lihVTHYVxUGeaUiomrTNlxYY8Mf8SL... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dohwEhsNofor5hFtd/how-much-background-technical-knowledge-do-lw-readers-have |
# Bystander effect false?
Can someone check [this link out](https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/07/bystander-effect-stranger-danger-crime-public-safety-video/593755/) and see whether the methodology is actually sound?
One-line summary is that Surveillance Cameras Debunk the Bystander Effect H/T [Hacker News](https://ne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X8avzgRSsq5iDtKtN/bystander-effect-false |
# Largest open collection quotes about AI
I apologize for my bad English, this is not my native language. And probably I will make some mistakes when posting.
For over 2 years I have been reading materials on the topic of AI Safety. I don't have the appropriate education, cognitive abilities, knowledge. I do not ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RAsjXz3hkYQ5Zehdd/largest-open-collection-quotes-about-ai |
# What are we predicting for Neuralink event?
Interesting exercise in AI-adjacent forecasting area (brain-computer interfaces). Curious if people want to specify some possible reveals+probabilities. [https://twitter.com/neuralink/status/1149133717048188929](https://twitter.com/neuralink/status/1149133717048188929)
(i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PA3Fq6Z3FXDkp48aB/what-are-we-predicting-for-neuralink-event |
# Raw Post: Talking With My Brother
**The Circumstances**
I am sitting down to write this immediately after one of the most honest conversations I’ve ever had with my brother. The reason I’m posting it to LessWrong is because I think it is a case study in rationality, emotion, personality, political partisanship, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mMZh5uSrxzB6fBjxt/raw-post-talking-with-my-brother |
# Reclaiming Eddie Willers
\[Content: personal ramble, not trying to be rigorous\]
When I read Atlas Shrugged a few years ago, it was one of the more intensely disturbing experiences I’ve had.
I remember that Eddie Willers was the only character I resonated or identified with much. He’s also, as far as I can tell, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BWuxky7zCKYwkNFnF/reclaiming-eddie-willers |
# No nonsense version of the "racial algorithm bias"
In discussions of algorithm bias, the COMPAS scandal has been too often quoted out of context. This post gives the facts, and the interpretation, as quickly as possible. See [this](https://web.archive.org/web/20161017154019/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ouQNu3hhfKLBRuwR7/no-nonsense-version-of-the-racial-algorithm-bias |
# Insights from Linear Algebra Done Right
This book has previously been discussed by [Nate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWmrLjo5CgzK2Xmzk/book-review-linear-algebra-done-right-miri-course-list) [Soares](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWmrLjo5CgzK2Xmzk/book-review-linear-algebra-done-right-miri-course-list) and [T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BgEfvxBHPfHdaQxLH/insights-from-linear-algebra-done-right |
# Let's Read:
Superhuman AI for multiplayer poker
On July 11, [a new poker AI is published in *Science*](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2019/07/10/science.aay2400.full). Called Pluribus, it plays 6-player No-limit Texas Hold'em at superhuman level.
In this post, we read through the paper. The level of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6qtq6KDvj86DXqfp6/let-s-read-superhuman-ai-for-multiplayer-poker |
# Overcoming Akrasia/Procrastination - Volunteers Wanted
**Edit:** Cohorts are basically full for now, will let people know if spaces open up.
I've got some new material I'm working on a related to overcoming procrastination and akrasia. It breaks down the skill of focus/willpower into seven "mental habits" that when... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jgW6r2qpkCvrb9aNQ/overcoming-akrasia-procrastination-volunteers-wanted |
# Commentary On "The Abolition of Man"
C.S. Lewis wrote a short book attacking moral subjectivism in education; it's available online [here as a pdf](http://www.samizdat.qc.ca/cosmos/philo/AbolitionofMan.pdf), [here as raw text](https://archive.org/stream/TheAbolitionOfMan_229/C.s.Lewis-TheAbolitionOfMan_djvu.txt), an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jWxYd9berwsG2j6fv/commentary-on-the-abolition-of-man |
# Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years
I just listened to [AI podcast: Jeff Hawkins on the Thousand Brain Theory of Intelligence](https://lexfridman.com/jeff-hawkins/), and read some of the related papers. Jeff Hawkins is a theoretical neuroscientist; you may have heard of his 2004 book *On Intelligence*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FoJSa8mgLPT83g9e8/jeff-hawkins-on-neuromorphic-agi-within-20-years |
# Integrity and accountability are core parts of rationality
_Epistemic Status: Pointing at early stage concepts, but with high confidence that something real is here. Hopefully not the final version of this post._
When I started studying rationality and philosophy, I had the perspective that people who were in posit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xhE4TriBSPywGuhqi/integrity-and-accountability-are-core-parts-of-rationality |
# Offering public comment in the Federal rulemaking process
This is a short linkdump of useful resources in the event you are planning to make a public comment on the AI standards. In the main these recommendations are intuitive: it helps to be an expert; identify exactly what document you are referring to; speak dire... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zwmAhHZduoEPL4dZL/offering-public-comment-in-the-federal-rulemaking-process |
# Why artificial optimism?
[Optimism bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias) is well-known. Here are some examples.
- It's conventional to answer the question "How are you doing?" with "well", regardless of how you're actually doing. Why?
- People often believe that it's inherently good to be happy, ra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sDy6E2qjh6dmYBAtK/why-artificial-optimism |
# Interview With Diana Fleischman and Geoffrey Miller
[Cross-posted from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/07/08/diana-fleischman-and-geoffrey-miller-interview/).
* * *
I had the pleasure of interviewing [Diana Fleischman](https://www.dianafleischman.com/) and [Geoffrey Miller](https://www.primalpoly.com/) a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZKnnGiS3ZMrq4hSDa/interview-with-diana-fleischman-and-geoffrey-miller |
# How Can Rationalists Join Other Communities Interested in Truth-Seeking?
Last week, Davis Kingsley wrote about reasons one might want to [diversify one's "friendship portfolio."](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s6eMPmSJTYHNjpH6y/diversify-your-friendship-portfolio#vSvoHjTS4DAcgc7tf) I commented that if this, being o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ytuhcm6Dr3mWuYSG9/how-can-rationalists-join-other-communities-interested-in |
# A Key Power of the President is to Coordinate the Execution of Existing Concrete Plans
I listened to the [80,000 Hours podcast with Tom Kalil](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/tom-kalil-government-careers), who spent 16 years as Deputy Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9XkrMTrA4d3fkBxDD/a-key-power-of-the-president-is-to-coordinate-the-execution |
# Intellectual Dark Matter
#### Knowledge that we can show exists, but cannot directly access, rests at the foundations of society and technology.
_Messier 106_
_From [my post](https://medium.com/the-long-now-foundation/intellectual-dark-matter-2e5890... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2KurKGTYXPwwm7fm4/intellectual-dark-matter |
# Nutrition is Satisficing
_Reason for writing: I didn't see a clear, unambiguous explanation of this concept when I did a search on LW._
_Epistemic status: Confident, **but this is a normative claim, not a descriptive one**. Skip if you hate normies._
Eat plenty of vegetables. Drink plenty of water. Get enough prot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vyhm9BBAD4WoPydYN/nutrition-is-satisficing |
# Economic Thinking
Economics is often portrayed as a dismal science. It seems to be about a small group of experts talking mostly about monetary policy. I want to argue that this is not true and that there is an elegant, natural and simple interpretation that admits far-reaching applications.
## Finite thinking
Fir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PWe4zJ9kYwtKyEG2f/economic-thinking |
# Very Short Introduction to Bayesian Model Comparison
At least within Bayesian probability, there is a single unique unambiguously-correct answer to "how should we penalize for model complexity?": calculate the probability of each model, given the data. This is Hard to compute in general, which is why there's a whol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5mr8Qcqi6xWa6HCHw/very-short-introduction-to-bayesian-model-comparison |
# Wolf's Dice
Around the mid-19th century, Swiss astronomer [Rudolf Wolf](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Wolf) rolled a pair of dice 20000 times, recording each outcome. Here is his [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KMQ8BYFXLbxoRAbL7rU3jrU0c1rc25akeJAY3GbfZNk):
 is a collection of processes that a person uses to gather, classify, store, search, retrieve and share knowledge in their daily activities (Grundspenkis 2007) and the way in which these processes support work activities (Wright ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mbG3CZaX6657ttnCa/what-is-your-personal-knowledge-management-system |
# Robust Artificial Intelligence and Robust Human Organizations
This academic note was previously linked but undiscussed in [AN#35](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pe3aqWXJWLHoB6vc4/alignment-newsletter-35), and I finally got around to reading it and really liked it so wanted to highlight it with a post.
The abstract... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iW2KFMD7NxBJvzmtw/robust-artificial-intelligence-and-robust-human |
# Doublecrux is for Building Products
Previously:
* [What product are you building](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2dNdHrGMT6QgqBFy/what-product-are-you-building)?
2 years ago, [CFAR's doublecrux technique](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-disagreement) seeme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWGkk6X9owZ3XwdeG/doublecrux-is-for-building-products |
# RAISE AI Safety prerequisites map entirely in one post
After reflecting on [recent criticism](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PSxcPAqYuEWLKAz6n/our-plan-for-2019-2020-consulting-for-ai-safety-education-1), all RAISE projects have been discontinued, and a postmortem is in our plans. (Update: the postmortem is [here](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dYWjFk84N4rn2Pw4q/raise-ai-safety-prerequisites-map-entirely-in-one-post |
# Intertheoretic utility comparison: examples
A previous [post](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1418) introduced the theory of intertheoretic utility comparison. This post will give examples of how to do that comparison, by normalising individual utility functions.
## The methods
All methods presented here obey... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703753ef/intertheoretic-utility-comparison-examples |
# Wolf's Dice II: What Asymmetry?
In the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/onCRFFN7rGXTg3jyc/p/zd89utY4afA59p58k), we looked at Rudolph Wolf's data on 20000 rolls of a pair of dice. Specifically, we looked at the data on the white die, and found that it was definitely biased. This raises an interesting quest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QKnbbGDd2LbAPfgBh/wolf-s-dice-ii-what-asymmetry |
# 1st Athena Rationality Workshop - Retrospective
During June 7-10 we ran the first Athena Rationality Workshop at the EA Hotel. The workshop taught the Ease process, which is a mental self debugging framework developed by Matt Goldenberg. The Ease framework incorporates various things he learned and developed during ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LAKLgB5bPwdTcQJ2z/1st-athena-rationality-workshop-retrospective |
# Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?
_h/t [alyssavance](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/alyssavance)_
> The bicycle, as we know it today, was not invented until the late 1800s. Yet it was a simple mechanical invention. It would seem to require no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TPytnFcWiD2E4cTrm/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-bicycle |
# Prereq: Cognitive Fusion
In a [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mELQFMi9egPn5EAjK/my-attempt-to-explain-looking-insight-meditation-and) by Kaj Sotala, he introduces the very useful idea of cognitive fusion.
> Cognitive fusion is a term from [Acceptance and Commitment Therapy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5g7oFiePGEY3h4bqX/prereq-cognitive-fusion |
# Why it feels like everything is a trade-off
_Epistemic status: A cute insight that explains why it might feel like you always have to make sacrifices along one metric to get improvements along another. Seems tautological once you understand it. Might be obvious to everyone._
_Meta-epistemic status or something: My ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nndc7jMB2oFzLvryP/why-it-feels-like-everything-is-a-trade-off |
# Dialogue on Appeals to Consequences
[note: the following is essentially an expanded version of [this LessWrong comment](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/WwTPSkNwC89g3Afnd/comment-section-from-05-19-2019/comment/kDnPCREWCbDLB8Yky) on whether [appeals to consequences](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_conseque... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P3FQNvnW8Cz42QBuA/dialogue-on-appeals-to-consequences |
# Normalising utility as willingness to pay
I've thought of a framework that puts most of the methods of [interteoretic utility normalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBJCMWELaW6MxinYW/intertheoretic-utility-comparison) and [bargaining](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kvBxG9ZmYb5rDRiq/gains-from-trade-slug-ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qudmaMyRuQk2pHxtj/normalising-utility-as-willingness-to-pay |
# Laplace Approximation
The last [couple](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/onCRFFN7rGXTg3jyc/p/zd89utY4afA59p58k) [posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QKnbbGDd2LbAPfgBh/wolf-s-dice-ii-what-asymmetry) compared some specific models for 20000 rolls of a die. This post will step back, and talk about more general theory for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9BqvY7tpqrD4BC6dL/laplace-approximation |
# The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Wants You (to submit essays and articles on the future of government AI policy)
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, a body created by Congress to study the impact of advances in AI on US national security has put out a [call for ess... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FRmgvme7WH26XddgY/the-national-security-commission-on-artificial-intelligence |
# Prereq: Question Substitution
A quote from a 2002 [paper](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4069/615a36c33e61ca309b8ceaeb628a10d441b5.pdf) by Kahneman and Frederick referencing some of Kahneman's earlier work with Tversky:
> Early research on the representativeness and availability heuristics was guided by a simple ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85cKzfXAifKc6dZFs/prereq-question-substitution |
# Thoughts on the 5-10 Problem
5 dollars is better than 10 dollars
===================================
The [5-10 Problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh/p/zcPLNNw4wgBX5k8kQ) is a strange issue in which an agent reasoning about itself makes an obviously wrong choice.
Our agent faces a truly harrowing c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uNjcYeMXXsnopajMg/thoughts-on-the-5-10-problem |
# Robust Agency for People and Organizations
_Epistemic Status – some mixture of:_
* _“My best guess, based on some theory, practice and observations. But very much \_not\_ battle-tested”_
* _but also, “poetry that’s designed to get an idea across that isn’t necessarily precisely accurate", intended to get across... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3yXRgbsDu38AGHemP/robust-agency-for-people-and-organizations |
# When does adding more people reliably make a system better?
Prediction markets have a remarkable property. They reward correct contrarianism. They incentivise people to disagree with the majority consensus, and be right. If you add more traders to a market, in expectation they price will be more accurate.
More trad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RechDyxHi7NKc3Ree/when-does-adding-more-people-reliably-make-a-system-better |
# [Link] Intro to causal inference by Michael Nielsen (2012)
This is a link post for Michael Nielsen's "[If correlation doesn’t imply causation, then what does?](http://www.michaelnielsen.org/ddi/if-correlation-doesnt-imply-causation-then-what-does/)" (2012).
I want to highlight the post for a few reasons:
(1) it is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kPKYMXsfxyeBgmCRv/link-intro-to-causal-inference-by-michael-nielsen-2012 |
# From Laplace to BIC
The [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9BqvY7tpqrD4BC6dL/laplace-approximation) outlined Laplace approximation, one of the most common tools used to approximate hairy probability integrals. In this post, we'll use Laplace approximation to derive the [Bayesian Information Criterion](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bvM6zj9xv5sjkGrhZ/from-laplace-to-bic |
# Scope Insensitivity Judo
It's easy to bemoan [scope insensitivity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ftJ38y9SRBCBsCzy/scope-insensitivity), a special case of that [phenomenon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extension_neglect) where we mere humans end up caring more about the death of one person than one hundred, bette... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTFQDdMmGC8NhQzHH/scope-insensitivity-judo |
# Appeal to Consequence, Value Tensions, And Robust Organizations
**Epistemic Status: Strong opinions weakly held. Mostly trying to bring some things into the discourse that I think are too often ignored.**
_[Some updates I've made based on the discussion in this post are here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7vofFov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7vofFovKWPrnM7y9Q/appeal-to-consequence-value-tensions-and-robust |
# The Costs of Reliability
A question that used to puzzle me is “Why can people be so much better at doing a thing for fun, or to help their friends and family, than they are at doing the _exact same thing _as a job?”
I’ve seen it in myself and I’ve seen it in others. People can be hugely more productive, creative, i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9EyzaH3jzH3PyQtM5/the-costs-of-reliability |
# Book review: The Technology Trap
I recently finished reading *The Technology Trap*, by Carl Frey. The book attempts to do two things: chronicle the role of technology in economic progress throughout history, and argue that automation in our own era parallels the first seven decades of the industrial revolution, duri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hZdiuuYxTBXuCPHZ7/book-review-the-technology-trap |
# Bayesian Model Testing Comparisons
We've now seen [three](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/onCRFFN7rGXTg3jyc/p/5mr8Qcqi6xWa6HCHw) [different](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/onCRFFN7rGXTg3jyc/p/9BqvY7tpqrD4BC6dL) [methods](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/onCRFFN7rGXTg3jyc/p/bvM6zj9xv5sjkGrhZ) for model comparison:
* Exact cal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cJePhSbDvfBLfcxtK/bayesian-model-testing-comparisons |
# Do you fear the rock or the hard place?
_Epistemic status: fairly confident based on my accumulated experience of debates and disagreements. I wrote this for myself as much as others._
There is a conversational dynamic which I think is extremely common, a failure mode which is all too easy to fall into. Alice and B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cM8GNMpzfKCkPnd5v/do-you-fear-the-rock-or-the-hard-place |
# What questions about the future would influence people’s actions today if they were informed by a prediction market?
I'm looking for questions that would be useful to many individuals and would influence their decisions today (not questions for those working on shaping the long term future of Earth originating life... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EHkGW9c5Gjjmgkm3o/what-questions-about-the-future-would-influence-people-s |
# Bayes' Theorem in three pictures
_Epistemic status: Just another visualization of Bayes' Theorem (and some light introductory text). [Tl;dr](https://i.imgur.com/FHIMzjH.png)._
Let's say you have a belief — I'll call it "B" for "belief" — that you would assign **2:1 odds** to. In other words, you consider it twice a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7jT2EzhZk4c47yYRq/bayes-theorem-in-three-pictures |
# Learning to Learn and Navigating Moods
Moods are important to learning. Clearly, if you’re upset, it will be harder to learn JavaScript, how to cook a fine pesto, or surf. If you’re curious and filled with wonder, it will be much easier. Because your mood can be either promote or hamper your learning success, learni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pDeRAi3Ysv7AK4xax/learning-to-learn-and-navigating-moods |
# Cross-Validation vs Bayesian Model Comparison
Suppose we need to predict the outcomes of simulated dice rolls as a project for a machine learning class. We have two models: an "unbiased" model, which assigns equal probability to all outcomes, and a "biased" model, which learns each outcome frequency from the data.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vFom2WsZkqCJPWqvZ/cross-validation-vs-bayesian-model-comparison |
# How Much Do Different Users Really Care About Upvotes?
For the last several years, I've known people who've submitted articles to the EA Forum or LessWrong, and found that the culture on these sites is pretty hostile to the kinds of views they're presenting (different people have different opinions of the patterns o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AaY3N5TDJAerMWiSi/how-much-do-different-users-really-care-about-upvotes |
# Self-experiment Protocol: Effect of Chocolate on Sleep
# Epistemic Status
Preregistering an experiment, not very confident in the design.
Because [it is important to decide how the data will be analyzed before collecting it](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15647155), I'm posting my planned experiment here, m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/miWWEL3oedggak5xK/self-experiment-protocol-effect-of-chocolate-on-sleep |
# [AN #60] A new AI challenge: Minecraft agents that assist human players in creative mode
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ftEZPtMfnTQtXSnKd/an-60-a-new-ai-challenge-minecraft-agents-that-assist-human |
# APL AI Safety Conference
The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, MD will be hosting a full-day conference on AI safety, on August 29. The speaker line-up has not been finalized yet, but current confirmed speakers include:
* Max Tegmark
* Lt. Gen. John “Jack” Shanahan, Director o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/q58itQYGeskRLsnPM/apl-ai-safety-conference |
# The Self-Unaware AI Oracle
*(See also my later post, [Self-Supervised Learning and AGI Safety](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EMZeJ7vpfeF4GrWwm/self-supervised-learning-and-agi-safety))*
**Abstract** A self-unaware AI oracle is a system that builds a world-model inside which there is no concept of "me". I propose ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SaLc9Dv5ZqD73L3nE/the-self-unaware-ai-oracle |
# Where is the Meaning?
> "You're being mean."
> "No, I'm not."
> "This album is amazing!"
> "What are you talking about? It's clearly trash."
> "Tomatoes are my favorite vegetable!"
> "Dude, they're fruits."
People often argue about what things _are_, and they often do it with words. Sometimes this can c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EmhPnoaJXoqsRobys/where-is-the-meaning |
# "Shortform" vs "Scratchpad" or other names
Within the next day or two, we'll be launching some features that give the "shortform" concept real infrastructural support. Shortform comments will appear on the All Posts page, on the new [/shortform page](https://www.lesswrong.com/shortform), and it'll be easier to autom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9FNHsvcqQjxcCoJMJ/shortform-vs-scratchpad-or-other-names |
# The Real Rules Have No Exceptions
*(This is a [comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CKoyBW5T7XaNSkawp/making-exceptions-to-general-rules#PKPnY3AN7HR6cpXcR) that has been turned into a post.)*
From Chris_Leong’s post, “[Making Exceptions to General Rules](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CKoyBW5T7XaNSkawp/makin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/duxy4Hby5qMsv42i8/the-real-rules-have-no-exceptions |
# Prediction as coordination
I want to introduce a model of why forecasting might be useful which I think is underappreciated: it might help us solve coordination problems.
This is currently only a rough idea, and I will proceed by examples, pushing this post out early rather than not at all.
**The standard mode... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vifrDn2iyoRPneHdi/prediction-as-coordination |
# How to take smart notes (Ahrens, 2017)
This is my rephrasing of [(Ahrens, 2017, *How to Take Smart Notes*)](https://takesmartnotes.com/). I added some personal comments.
## The amazing note-taking method of Luhmann
To be more productive, it's necessary to have a good system and workflow. The Getting Things Done sy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T382CLwAjsy3fmecf/how-to-take-smart-notes-ahrens-2017 |
# AI Safety Debate and Its Applications
_All of the experimental work and some of the theoretical work has been done jointly with Anna Gajdova, David Lindner, Lukas Finnveden, and Rajashree Agrawal as part of the third AI Safety Camp. We are grateful to Ryan Carey and Geoffrey Irving for the advice regarding this proj... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Kv2qNfRyXXihNrx2/ai-safety-debate-and-its-applications |
# Metaphorical extensions and conceptual figure-ground inversions
Consider the following sentence: "A glacier is a river of ice."
This is metaphorical. In some sense, a glacier isn't actually a river. A "literal" river has flowing liquid water, not ice.
Let a river(1) be defined to be an archetypal flowing-water riv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wR4PaDp2Knu5coeXx/metaphorical-extensions-and-conceptual-figure-ground |
# On the purposes of decision theory research
Following the examples of [Rob Bensinger](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKbxi2EJ3KBNRDGpL/comment-on-decision-theory) and [Rohin Shah](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kahBLu32sZAuAZbER/irl-in-general-environments#zP5g6ZdC4f9yn2yBx), this post will try to clarify the aims... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JSjagTDGdz2y6nNE3/on-the-purposes-of-decision-theory-research |
# Ought: why it matters and ways to help
I think that Ought is one of the most promising projects working on AI alignment. There are several ways that LW readers can potentially help:
* They are recruiting a [senior full-stack web developer](https://ought.org/careers/web-developer).
* They are recruiting [partici... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cpewqG3MjnKJpCr7E/ought-why-it-matters-and-ways-to-help |
# How often are new ideas discovered in old papers?
Suppose someone wrote a paper about X two decades ago. A modern reader realizes the X paper sheds light on an unrelated idea Y. Do we have any information on how often this happens? How often is this just "I figured out Y for a different reason, and while doing my li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qj6rK8XBsABQoporr/how-often-are-new-ideas-discovered-in-old-papers |
# Can you summarize highlights from Vernon's Creativity?
Gwern had responded to [Elizabeth's question about creativity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/smjMNYeS2myBpqYGn/how-can-we-measure-creativity) with the following:
> A good anthology to read is _[Creativity,](https://www.gwern.net/docs/psychology/writing/1970-v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPePKyxwCFLADuNXT/can-you-summarize-highlights-from-vernon-s-creativity |
# Old Man Jevons Can’t Save You Now (Part 2/2)
_Followup to ["Thank You, Old Man Jevons, for My Job"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7pNJ9aQxRMrWAnkmf/thank-you-old-man-jevons-for-my-job)_
_CW: Robots, deadly to drastically oversimplified models presented in previous posts_
So, I think it’s about time I crus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPcpbBMLCDYymRvnB/old-man-jevons-can-t-save-you-now-part-2-2 |
# Results of LW Technical Background Survey
[See results here](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1os_miirkd_iiGwRBLG5bJhHBgf0i9bcKg5-UgFIZkPo/viewanalytics).
The main goal of [the survey](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dohwEhsNofor5hFtd/how-much-background-technical-knowledge-do-lw-readers-have) was to provide info fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ud6RPzTfEgYspiXfG/results-of-lw-technical-background-survey |
# The Artificial Intentional Stance
Another post in the same incremental vein. Still hoarding the wild speculation for later.
**I**
The idea of the "intentional stance" comes from [Dan Dennett](https://www.cs.tufts.edu/comp/150AAA/DennettTrueBelievers.pdf), who wanted to explain why it makes sense that we should thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvqGmLBCtvQxfMs9m/the-artificial-intentional-stance |
# Shortform Beta Launch
We've had [unofficial experiments with shortform](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jL7uDE5oH4HddYq4u/raemon-s-shortform) for over a year. More and more people have been trying it out and finding it useful. Now, we're pushing shortform into an officially supported feature.
My description of shor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tFwNi24kXeZ2BzvZz/shortform-beta-launch |
# Is this info on zinc lozenges accurate?
Podcast: [Zinc Definitely Fights Colds, But You’re Probably Using the Wrong Kind](https://chrismasterjohnphd.com/podcast/2016/12/26/zinc-definitely-fights-colds-youre-probably-using-wrong-kind)
This podcast claims that zinc lozenges are "probably almost essentially a cure f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/un2fgBad4uqqwm9sH/is-this-info-on-zinc-lozenges-accurate |
# Keep Your Beliefs Cruxy
Previously in sequence: [Doublecrux is for building products](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/hBFDRZCPLcrRDubgm/p/eWGkk6X9owZ3XwdeG).
To recap – you might want to [doublecrux](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-disagreement) if either:
* You... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BmyoYkr7u2oas4ukn/keep-your-beliefs-cruxy |
# What does Optimization Mean, Again? (Optimizing and Goodhart Effects - Clarifying Thoughts, Part 2)
**Clarifying Thoughts on Optimizing and Goodhart Effects - Part 2**
Previous Post: [Re-introducing Selection vs Control for Optimization](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2neeoZ7idRbZf4eNC/re-introducing-sel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BEMvcaeixt3uEqyBk/what-does-optimization-mean-again-optimizing-and-goodhart |
# Applying Overoptimization to Selection vs. Control (Optimizing and Goodhart Effects - Clarifying Thoughts, Part 3)
**Clarifying Thoughts on Optimizing and Goodhart Effects - Part 3**
Previous Posts: [Re-introducing Selection vs Control for Optimization](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2neeoZ7idRbZf4eNC/re-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zdeYiQgwYRs2bEmCK/applying-overoptimization-to-selection-vs-control-optimizing |
# Compilers/PLs book recommendation?
I'm interested in:
* Data structures for representing programs
* Algorithms for translating between those representations
* Analysis & manipulations of each representation; questions which are natural to ask/answer in each
Most books I can find on compilers/PLs tend to spen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxfTA3YroiqoPi2g8/compilers-pls-book-recommendation |
# Toy model piece #1: Partial preferences revisited
**EDIT**: This model is currently obsolete, see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ucG63yw3JgP3rW7tH/toy-model-piece-5-combining-partial-preferences) for the most current version.
I'm working towards a toy model that will illustrate all the steps in the [researc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BydQtwfN97pFwEWtW/toy-model-piece-1-partial-preferences-revisited |
# Does it become easier, or harder, for the world to coordinate around not building AGI as time goes on?
(Or, is coordination easier in a long timeline?)
It seems like it would be good if the world could coordinate to not build AGI. That is, at some point in the future, when some number of teams will have the technic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b9ErEMen42X94749t/does-it-become-easier-or-harder-for-the-world-to-coordinate |
# Information empathy
_Epistemic status: Giving a name to a basic skill that some people exhibit and others don't, because I think that it's useful to keep track of who exhibits it and that giving it a name will help with this. See also: [Historian's Fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historian%27s_fallacy), [Theo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wsbMPeSeu9WfdaBjh/information-empathy |
# Does improved introspection cause rationalisation to become less noticeable?
I've recently updated that [noticing](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o7W3oB8SR679HGeAq/what-it-s-like-to-notice-things) is a key rationality skill -- not just noticing confusion, but noticing your cognition more generally. This allows you ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7PwfCihELxmXCwYLK/does-improved-introspection-cause-rationalisation-to-become |
# Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen
_\[[Cross-posted to the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ejfaog2t72szuMFrp/conversation-on-forecasting-with-vaniver-and-ozzie-gooen)\]_
This is a transcript of a conversation on forecasting between [Vaniver](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AG6PAqsN5sjQHmKfm/conversation-on-forecasting-with-vaniver-and-ozzie-gooen |
# Walkthrough: The Transformer Architecture [Part 1/2]
This is the first post in a new sequence in which I walk through papers, concepts, and blog posts related to machine learning and AI alignment.
In the process of increasing my own understanding of these topics, I have decided to implement a well known piece of ad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qscAeYE67GoSffDDA/walkthrough-the-transformer-architecture-part-1-2 |
# Forum participation as a research strategy
Previously: [Online discussion is better than pre-publication peer review](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a3aGosA987cZ4aRAB/online-discussion-is-better-than-pre-publication-peer-review), [Disincentives for participating on LW/AF](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xYav5gMSuQv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rBkZvbGDQZhEymReM/forum-participation-as-a-research-strategy |
# Drive-By Low-Effort Criticism
I'd like to point out a phenomenon that has predictable consequences, that people are seemingly unaware of:
The **Drive-By Low-Effort Criticism**_._
To illustrate, we'll use:
_[The Relationship Between the Village and the Mission](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGycR8tFA3JJbvApp/the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uxYemA2ttzjs8z8Eb/drive-by-low-effort-criticism |
# How to Ignore Your Emotions (while also thinking you're awesome at emotions)
_(cross posted from my [personal blog](http://www.jhazard.com/posts/ignoring_emotions.html))_
Since middle school I've generally thought that I'm pretty good at dealing with my emotions, and a handful of close friends and family have made ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qmXqHKpgRfg83Nif9/how-to-ignore-your-emotions-while-also-thinking-you-re |
# Walkthrough: The Transformer Architecture [Part 2/2]
If you are already sort of familiar with the Transformer, this post can serve as a standalone technical explanation of the architecture. Otherwise, I recommend reading [part one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qscAeYE67GoSffDDA/walkthrough-the-transformer-archite... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/McmHduRWJynsjZjx5/walkthrough-the-transformer-architecture-part-2-2 |
# Contest: $1,000 for good questions to ask to an Oracle AI
**Edit**: contest closed now, will start assessing the entries.
# The contest
I'm offering $1,000 for good questions to ask of AI Oracles. Good questions are those that are safe and useful: that allows us to get information out of the Oracle without increas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai |
# Gathering thoughts on Distillation
I think one of the biggest outstanding issues facing LessWrong is good infrastructure for distilling lengthy conversations.
Wei_Dai notes in the [comments of Forum Participation as Research Strategy](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rBkZvbGDQZhEymReM/forum-participation-as-a-resear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kjL9tAWEp8MECCqz/gathering-thoughts-on-distillation |
# The Importance of Those Who Aren't Here
One concept that people often miss when structuring groups, organizations, or social spaces is _the importance of those who aren't here._ People who aren't actively present can be just as important for the medium- and long-term future of your project as those who happen to be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pAfHq5h3XCjgg4aG7/the-importance-of-those-who-aren-t-here |
# Do you use twitter for intellectual engagement? Do you like it?
By happenstance I never started using social media much, and when I stumbled onto the Deep Work mindset I began intentionally avoiding it.
One thing I'd like in my life is an intellectual community, where I can routinely go to find people's thoughts th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPD9Nwb28FLn2k5pG/do-you-use-twitter-for-intellectual-engagement-do-you-like |
# Mistake Versus Conflict Theory of Against Billionaire Philanthropy
Response To (SlateStarCodex): [Against Against Billionaire Philanthropy](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/29/against-against-billionaire-philanthropy/)
I agree with all the central points in Scott Alexander’s [Against Against Billionaire Philanthr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k3MhrQewcHziu3PHS/mistake-versus-conflict-theory-of-against-billionaire |
# The Internet: Burning Questions
_(cross-posted from my [personal blog](http://www.jhazard.com/posts/internet_questions.html))_
I'm about to start a learning project and I'm paying extra close attention, "What feels most interesting?" rather than merely, "What am I supposed to know?" When I stopped to think about it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kowKx2ay3Bg5MHq7u/the-internet-burning-questions |
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