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# Redefining Fast Takeoff
_This post is a result of numerous discussions with other participants and organizers of the MIRI Summer Fellows Program 2019. It describes ideas that are likely already known by many researchers. However, given how often disagreements about slow/fast takeoffs come up, I believe there is sign... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxgtQXnH2uDGBJJGa/redefining-fast-takeoff |
# Vaniver's View on Factored Cognition
**The View from 2018**
In April of last year, [I wrote up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rXzxMQwRq7KRonQDM/my-confusions-with-paul-s-agenda) my confusions with Paul’s agenda, focusing mostly on approval directed agents. I mostly have similar opinions now; the main thing I noti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J7Rnt8aJPH7MALkmq/vaniver-s-view-on-factored-cognition |
# Tabooing 'Agent' for Prosaic Alignment
This post is an attempt to sketch a presentation of the alignment problem while tabooing words like agency, goals or optimization as core parts of the ontology.[^1] This is not a critique of frameworks which treat these topics as fundamental, in fact I end up concluding that th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCcmJzbenAXu6qugS/tabooing-agent-for-prosaic-alignment |
# Creating Environments to Design and Test Embedded Agents
# Creating a Proper Space to Design and Test Embedded Agents
## Introduction
I was thinking about the embedded agency sequence again last week, and thought “It is very challenging to act and reason from within an automaton.” Making agents which live in autom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qdqYrcGZTh9Lp49Nj/creating-environments-to-design-and-test-embedded-agents |
# Formalising decision theory is hard
In this post, I clarify how far we are from a complete solution to decision theory, and the way in which high-level philosophy relates to the mathematical formalism. I’ve personally been confused about this in the past, and I think it could be useful to people who casually follows... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S3W4Xrmp6AL7nxRHd/formalising-decision-theory-is-hard |
# Towards an Intentional Research Agenda
_This post is motivated by research intuitions that better [formalisms in consciousness research](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/research/) contribute to agent foundations in more ways than just the value loading problem. Epistemic status: speculative._
[David Marr's leve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHSRhSKcrSmQWnD6A/towards-an-intentional-research-agenda |
# A basic probability question
From the logical induction paper [https://intelligence.org/files/LogicalInductionAbridged.pdf:](https://intelligence.org/files/LogicalInductionAbridged.pdf:)
Let φ stand for the claim that the 87,653rd digit of π is a 7. If this claim is true, then (1 + 1 = 2) ⇒ φ. I don't understand th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7wqSkRWxizgQ9nu8B/a-basic-probability-question |
# Metalignment: Deconfusing metaethics for AI alignment.
Epistemic status: MSFP blog post day. General and very speculative ideas.
Proposition : Deconfusing metaethics might be a promising way to increase our chances of solving AI alignment.
**What do I mean by metaethics?**
---------------------------------
Metae... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BL7QmtAgvkjMqKe29/metalignment-deconfusing-metaethics-for-ai-alignment-1 |
# Torture and Dust Specks and Joy--Oh my!
or: Non-Archimedean Utility Functions as Pseudograded Vector Spaces
A dozen years ago, Eliezer Yudkowsky [asked](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3wYTFWY3LKQCnAptN/torture-vs-dust-specks) us which was less (wrong?) bad:
* 3^^^3 people each getting a dust speck in their eyes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3eKqeq8kzEmEsoFiy/torture-and-dust-specks-and-joy-oh-my-or-non-archimedean |
# Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage
_\[Epistemic status: Argument by analogy to historical cases. Best case scenario it's just one argument among many. Edit: Also, thanks to feedback from others, especially Paul, I intend to write a significantly improved version of this post in the next two ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PKy8NuNPknenkDY74/soft-takeoff-can-still-lead-to-decisive-strategic-advantage |
# Algorithmic Similarity
The Problem
===========
If someone asked you and me to each write a python program to solves some novel problem then it wouldn't be surprising if our solutions looked quite different. If we then tried explaining to the other person the way our own program worked, one thing that might happen i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BS7Syu2buhLYRjkwY/algorithmic-similarity |
# Thoughts on Retrieving Knowledge from Neural Networks
**Disclaimer:** this post is a collection of preliminary thoughts around a specific question for MSFP'19 blogpost writing day. I do not intend to present novel results or define a research agenda.
1\. Motivation
==============
The capital of Mozambique is Maput... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22gPT6L5XEvHqW7bi/thoughts-on-retrieving-knowledge-from-neural-networks |
# Parables of Constraint and Actualization
I have an intuition that physics, logic, and computation are all closely connected, and that their bounded versions are also closely connected. I think this intuition started as wishful thinking. I didn't have time to study all three of my favorite subjects, so I hoped that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LwyA6aJeYQbSTphHT/parables-of-constraint-and-actualization |
# When do utility functions constrain?
**The Problem**
This post is an exploration of a very simple worry about the concept of utility maximisers - that they seem capable of explaining any exhibited behaviour. It is one that has, in different ways, has been brought up many times before. Rohin Shah, for example, compl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGuo5R9fgrrFLYWuv/when-do-utility-functions-constrain-1 |
# Actually updating
**_Actually_** updating can be harder than it seems. Hearing the same advice from other people and only **_really_** understanding it the third time (though internally you felt like you **_really_** understood the first time) seems inefficient. Having to give yourself the same advice or have the sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KaByYSRwSLdscGYB6/actually-updating |
# Understanding understanding
How does 'understanding' a problem work, and when do we feel like we understood an explanation or proof? Having an opaque long formal proof often feels insufficient, similarly some arguments feel unsatisfying because they contain many subjectively arbitrary choices.
An explanation is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WGE6nqbWzzDxRmMs7/understanding-understanding |
# Troll Bridge
*All of the results in this post, and most of the informal observations/interpretations, are due to Sam Eisenstat. I think the Troll Bridge story, as a way to make the decision problem understandable, is due to Tsvi; but I'm not sure.*
## Pure Logic Version
Troll Bridge is a decision problem which has... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hpAbfXtqYC2BrpeiC/troll-bridge-5 |
# Optimization Provenance
Transparency is vital for [ML-type approaches](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/) to AI alignment, and is also an important part of [agent foundations](https://arbital.com/p/understandability_principle/) research. In this post, we lay out an agenda for formalizing transparency which w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zj2PgP5A8vY2G3gYw/optimization-provenance |
# Is there a simple parameter that controls human working memory capacity, which has been set tragically low?
Here's the kind of thing I mean by "human working memory capacity" being "set tragically low": A 100-word sentence introducing a new concept is often annoyingly hard to wrap one's head around, compared to a lo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NptgfCiJvXyoRgdcz/is-there-a-simple-parameter-that-controls-human-working |
# LessLong Launch Party
Link to Facebook event: [https://www.facebook.com/events/714774672318252/](https://www.facebook.com/events/714774672318252/)
**WOO, A PARTY!**
The LessWrong team wants to celebrate the launch of Shortform (description below) so we're going to host a big, long party that is all things short.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/GJ7ywpXvpK7zjWvfG/lesslong-launch-party |
# Is LW making progress?
Some people have an intuition that with free exchange of ideas, the best ones will eventually come out on top. I'm less optimistic, so I ask if that's really happening.
The alternative would be to have the same people talking about the same problems without accumulating anything. People would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qBtzPj8FjaHNrbwuz/is-lw-making-progress |
# Epistemic Spot Check: The Fate of Rome (Kyle Harper)
Introduction
============
[Epistemic spot checks](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/) are a series in which I select claims from the first few chapters of a book and investigate them for accuracy, to determine if a book is worth my time. This mon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LtHC5LqtzKRvfy4yQ/epistemic-spot-check-the-fate-of-rome-kyle-harper |
# OpenPhil on "GiveWell’s Top Charities Are (Increasingly) Hard to Beat"
This post by Alex Berger of OpenPhil outlines some shifts in thinking at OpenPhil, about what bar they set for their grantmaking. It seemed noteworthy...
* as potentially relevant to the [Drowning Children are Hard to Find](https://www.lesswro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7DcXeMjeyFz8WqLuR/openphil-on-givewell-s-top-charities-are-increasingly-hard |
# Under a week left to win $1,000! By questioning Oracle AIs.
That clickbait-y title is, for once, perfectly accurate: you have until the 31st of August to submit an entry to the [Oracle design contest](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai), eith... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bnDGt4Y9Hfx62Bgmk/under-a-week-left-to-win-usd1-000-by-questioning-oracle-ais |
# Gratification: a useful concept, maybe new
**I did it... my way!**
*Frank Sinatra, Paul Anka, and Elvis Presely, moral philosophers.*
I like winning games. I particularly like winning when I can ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GnPSQAi3QzHjK8ZQR/gratification-a-useful-concept-maybe-new |
# Schelling Categories, and Simple Membership Tests
**Followup to**: [Where to Draw the Boundaries?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries)
_Or there might be social or psychological forces anchoring word usages on identifiable Schelling points that are easy for different peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/edEXi4SpkXfvaX42j/schelling-categories-and-simple-membership-tests |
# Problems with AI debate
There's a lot to recommend with the [debate approach](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.00899.pdf) proposed by Geoffrey Irving, Paul Christiano, and Dario Amodei. In it, competing AIs will trade rival claims, seeking to find flaws in the other's claims, continuing until one of them is grounded in so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fNTCveSa4HvqvZR2F/problems-with-ai-debate |
# How Can People Evaluate Complex Questions Consistently?
I'm doing a project on how humans can evaluate messy problems and come up with consistent answers (consistent with both themselves over time and with other people), and what the trade off is with accuracy. This isn't a single unified field, so I need to go poki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6g6pRNBZadT9J3APM/how-can-people-evaluate-complex-questions-consistently |
# Toy model piece #3: close and distant situations
I'll build on my model of [the previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gzwM9edW4fXPwJuAW/toy-model-piece-2-combining-short-and-long-range-partial), and consider close and distant situation.
Recall that each world in $\mathcal{W}$ is defined by $0\leq n \leq 10... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EYmNEPt4jqQar4Wx8/toy-model-piece-3-close-and-distant-situations |
# Reversible changes: consider a bucket of water
I've [argued](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEqu6jMgnHG2fvaoQ/partial-preferences-needed-partial-preferences-sufficient) that many methods of AI control - corrigibility, amplification and distillation, low impact, etc... - require a partial definition of human prefere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zrunBA8B5bmm2XZ59/reversible-changes-consider-a-bucket-of-water |
# Embedded Agency via Abstraction
Claim: problems of [agents embedded in their environment](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh/p/p7x32SEt43ZMC9r7r) mostly reduce to problems of abstraction. Solve abstraction, and solutions to embedded agency problems will probably just drop out naturally.
The goal of this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hLFD6qSN9MmQxKjG5/embedded-agency-via-abstraction |
# Six AI Risk/Strategy Ideas
AI risk ideas are piling up in my head (and in my notebook) faster than I can write them down as full posts, so I'm going to condense multiple posts into one [again](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbtvgNXkufFRSrx4j/three-ai-safety-related-ideas). I may expand some or all of these into ful... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dt4z82hpvvPFTDTfZ/six-ai-risk-strategy-ideas |
# A Personal Rationality Wishlist
At one point I compiled a list of conundrums relating to rationality that come up in my life. Instead of solving them, I thought I’d write up a selection of them, since that’s easier and maybe other people will solve them.
Punishing honesty vs no punishment
--------------------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3vATgmLp72mzNNpo4/a-personal-rationality-wishlist |
# Dual Wielding
Previously:[ More Dakka](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/12/02/more-dakka/)
Epistemic Status: The Dakka Files
Smartphones are wonderful things.
Get a second one. And get a lot of chargers.
I did this a week ago. My phone (a Google Pixel 2) had some sort of ink leak onto its screen, so I purchased... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XHXa3AQuAmAm7Kxxf/dual-wielding |
# Cartographic Processes
As a general rule, street maps of New York City do not form spontaneously - they involve some cause-and-effect process which takes in data from the territory (NYC’s streets) and produces the map from that data. Let’s call these “cartographic processes”: causal processes which produce a map fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5DFpygMqpnFsmJ3b/cartographic-processes |
# Don't Pull a Broken Chain
_This essay originally appeared [here](https://seekingquestions.blogspot.com/2017/03/four-parables-one-lesson-broken-chain.html)._
The Emperor’s Nose (Richard Feynman)
------------------------------------
A village in a remote corner of an empire decided to erect a statue of the emperor. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v53ZxqDc5wtQEwdbD/don-t-pull-a-broken-chain |
# The Missing Math of Map-Making
Consider the clever arguer from [The Bottom Line](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GSqFqc646rsRd2oyz/p/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw):
> Now suppose there is a clever arguer, holding a sheet of paper, and they say to the owners of box A and box B: “Bid for my services, and whoever wins my services, I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3uyjYp5Wi3hqWrjFk/the-missing-math-of-map-making |
# [Link] Book Review: Reframing Superintelligence (SSC)
[https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/27/book-review-reframing-superintelligence/](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/27/book-review-reframing-superintelligence/)
> Drexler asks: what if future AI looks a lot like current AI, but better?
> For example, take G... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wkF5rHDFKEWyJJLj2/link-book-review-reframing-superintelligence-ssc |
# Why are the people who could be doing safety research, but aren’t, doing something else?
Imagine the set “the 50 people who would most helpfully contribute to technical alignment research, were they to be working on it, yet who are working on something else instead.” If you had to guess—if you had to make up a stor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MrmuNNCxbL6SKrFBY/why-are-the-people-who-could-be-doing-safety-research-but |
# AI Forecasting Resolution Council (Forecasting infrastructure, part 2)
UPDATE October 18, 2020: The AI Resolution Forecasting Council has been retired due to lack of demand for its services. I'm keeping this post up for historical value.
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
_This post introduces the [AI Forecasting Reso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9G6CCNXkA7JZoorpY/ai-forecasting-resolution-council-forecasting-infrastructure |
# Why study perturbative adversarial attacks ?
This post summarizes and comments on [Motivating the Rules of the Game for Adversarial Example Research](https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.06732)
## Summary of paper
Despite the amount of recent work done, human-inperceptible perturbation adversarial attacks (Example: [One Pix... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EHGkwRDWnd8c3n5pp/why-study-perturbative-adversarial-attacks |
# LW Team Updates - September 2019
To better communicate site updates, we’re going to experiment with a once-monthly updates post. We’ll pin this post pin on the homepage for roughly a week and then continue to post updates here throughout the month.
Please also feel free to use the comments section on this post as a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zD9Dw2xWT6Sbsaw7m/lw-team-updates-september-2019 |
# AI Alignment Writing Day Roundup #1
Here are some of the posts from last week's [writing day](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aJGXWHnYTsWwAiwf6/announcement-writing-day-today-thursday). Due to the participants writing 34 posts in less than 24 hours (!), I'm re-airing them to let people have a proper chance to read (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZYGjDpGQaHvg8HLfw/ai-alignment-writing-day-roundup-1 |
# How to Make Billions of Dollars Reducing Loneliness
# Loneliness Is a Big Problem
On Facebook, my friend Tyler [writes](https://www.facebook.com/tyleralterman/posts/10214636828938815):
>Lately, I've been having an alarming amount of conversations arise about the burdens of loneliness, alienation, rootlessness, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FCXCXigp7byv2dM8D/how-to-make-billions-of-dollars-reducing-loneliness |
# 2-D Robustness
_This is a short note on a framing that was developed in collaboration with Joar Skalse, Chris van Merwijk and Evan Hubinger while working on [Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820), but which did not find a natural place in the report._
* * *
Mesa-optimisation is a kind ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2mhFMgtAjFJesaSYR/2-d-robustness |
# September Bragging Thread
Thought I'd try reviving an old LessWrong experiment: the Bragging Thread. (See [this old one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MH4kwqJoS96kBb7Ah/bragging-thread-june-2014) for some context)
LessWrong mostly rewards people for writing blogposts. That's cool and all, but is not the only thin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xr8W5Q32cwXeqmEB/september-bragging-thread |
# Does anyone know of a good overview of what humans know about depression?
If I wanted to spend 1 to 5 hours getting oriented on everything that we collectively know about depression (starting with whatever pieces are settled, and then moving onto the confusing mess of conflicting data that's left), what resources sh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ao7HHWiG8s83fEzhm/does-anyone-know-of-a-good-overview-of-what-humans-know |
# Look at the Shape of Your Utility Distribution
If we can talk about "expected utility", then "utility" has to be a random variable sampled form some distribution. You can then ask questions like _"what is the probability that U is less than 10?"_ or, in other words, _"how many outcomes have U<10, and how likely are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nHuM62SzKdMLB4g2h/look-at-the-shape-of-your-utility-distribution |
# Can this model grade a test without knowing the answers?
In the 2012 paper "How To Grade a Test Without Knowing the Answers — A Bayesian Graphical Model for Adaptive Crowdsourcing and Aptitude Testing" ([PDF](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1206.6386.pdf)), Bachrach _et al_ describe a mathematical model for starting with
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kqLHBfcQ6NK7d32rp/can-this-model-grade-a-test-without-knowing-the-answers |
# How good a proxy for accuracy is precision?
Accuracy = averaging to the right answer.
Precision = having a low standard deviation.
It's easy to get a precise but inaccurate answer- just guess 0 every time. But for situations w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cFrxDhuPJYw69DSX8/how-good-a-proxy-for-accuracy-is-precision |
# What does social psychology tell us about getting consistent evaluations out of groups?
Suppose we have different groups repeatedly making the same kind of decision (ex: awards in a civil lawsuit). We would like their decisions to be consistent and predictable, and are even willing to trade some accuracy to do so.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QSXifFFQoRQXzc4W6/what-does-social-psychology-tell-us-about-getting-consistent |
# Peter Thiel/Eric Weinstein Transcript on Growth, Violence, and Stories
_I’ve recently been through a spate of listening to podcasts. When I listened to the first ninety minutes of a [three-hour conversation between Eric Weinstein and Peter Thiel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM9f0W2KD5s), I was surprised to hear ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5EnpGNG5xPGSPyuQn/peter-thiel-eric-weinstein-transcript-on-growth-violence-and |
# Logical Counterfactuals and Proposition graphs, Part 2
If you haven't read part 1, read it [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pxvq2RMAKCuY6SHm9/logical-counterfactuals-and-proposition-graphs-part-1).
In this post we extend the notion of propositional graphs to cover any first order theory.
Consider some arbitr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/due5BtsbpTzSZbeKT/logical-counterfactuals-and-proposition-graphs-part-2 |
# Bay Area Winter Solstice Volunteering
This year's Bay Area Winter Solstice will be held on Sunday, December 15 in the Chabot Planetarium. The Solstice is an annual gathering where we come together to celebrate humanity and the things that matter to us.
We're now soliciting volunteers from the Rationalist and Effect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fySjW3Eg6zgs8p2T/bay-area-winter-solstice-volunteering |
# Arguing Absolute Velocities
_CW: Analogies_
You and a friend are arguing over a physics question: "You're on a train speeding seventy miles per hour east, while you run 5 miles per hour west. How fast are you moving?"
_That's obvious_, you think to yourself. _The question says I'm running 5 miles per hour west_, _... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2cGDqbQGjNzbkfMJq/arguing-absolute-velocities |
# The Five Main Muscles for a Full Range of Natural Movement, Dynamic Alignment & Balance.
*Epistemic status. Full confidence. The anatomy is easily verifiable. Working towards fully utilising these muscles has changed my life. *[*My story here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/cSQHJPrpSvwt9dRyW/p/J92WLPZXnvqp5W3gJ#My_St... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pXmztcFqiAHX5J8JF/the-five-main-muscles-for-a-full-range-of-natural-movement |
# Tiddlywiki for organizing notes and research
Happy new school year to my fellow students! With my first year of grad school under my belt, and my sword and shield out for Round 2, I wanted to share a tool that’s helped me on my journey.
Two years ago, my go-to system for organizing my research and writing “citation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wiLaYDcshYr97R8Lr/tiddlywiki-for-organizing-notes-and-research |
# Probability as Minimal Map
What’s the difference between a map and the raw data used to generate that map?
Suppose, for example, that google sends a bunch of cars out driving around New York City, snapping photos every few feet, then uses the photos to reconstruct a streetmap. In an informational sense, what’s the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lz2nCYnBeaZyS68Xb/probability-as-minimal-map |
# What are the biggest "moonshots" currently in progress?
You know, "moonshot" projects like:
* SpaceX's plan to colonize Mars
* SpaceX's plan to give the whole world fast satellite internet
* Tesla's plan to transition the world to sustainable energy
* [Boom](https://boomsupersonic.com/) making commercial su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/griR32wpGGXs7LtpB/what-are-the-biggest-moonshots-currently-in-progress |
# How Much is Your Time Worth?
“I didn’t get much done last week because it was so hot.”
It wasn’t the first time a client said this to me, and I was curious. “Have you considered getting an air conditioner if it’s that bad?”
“No” He replied (let’s call him Philip), “An open window is usually enough. It’s just that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y5RoNDPcfJqm3vfQA/how-much-is-your-time-worth |
# Specificity: Your Brain's Superpower
Introduction
============
What if there was a magic superpower that simultaneously enabled you to:
* [Demolish bad arguments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FfrWGCEhZJbkeFgww/the-power-to-demolish-ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower |
# The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments
**This is Part I of the** [**Specificity Sequence**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)
Imagine you've played ordinary chess your whole life, until one day the game becomes 3D. That's what unlocking the power of specificity feel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FfrWGCEhZJbkeFgww/the-power-to-demolish-bad-arguments |
# Best utility normalisation method to date?
For some time, me and others have been looking at ways of [normalising utility functions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBJCMWELaW6MxinYW/intertheoretic-utility-comparison), so that we can answer questions like:
* Suppose that you are uncertain between maximising $U_1$ a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GfMGa9e79AfDMLj36/best-utility-normalisation-method-to-date |
# Stories About Academia
_This is the 2nd post of 5 containing the transcript of a podcast hosted by Eric Weinstein interviewing Peter Thiel._
Interview
=========
Nature and Culture
------------------
**Eric Weinstein:** Actually I'm scanning my memory and I don't know that we've had this conversation, so I'm curio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sh8qjH3GPpBvMu7ac/stories-about-academia |
# Joy in Discovery: Galois theory
Inspired by: [Joy in Discovery](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KfMNFB3G7XNviHBPN/joy-in-discovery), [Class Project](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xAXrEpF5FYjwqKMfZ/class-project)
Your task: Prove either of the following statements:
- There exists a polynomial $p(x)$ of degree fiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FtKg4tmSSjRM9KXiq/joy-in-discovery-galois-theory |
# One Way to Think About ML Transparency
What makes a neural network interpretable?
One response is that a neural network is interpretable if it is _human simulatable_. That is, it is interpretable if and only if a human could step through the procedure that the neural network went through when given an input, and ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jg6ZJLE5eHkfuxk67/one-way-to-think-about-ml-transparency |
# The Transparent Society: A radical transformation that we should probably undergo
_Edit (May, 2020): The purpose of this document is to examine the end, and ask whether it would be good or stable, the purpose is not to examine the means, to lay a path, or to tally the risks of trying. I don't know how clear that was... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gm9JYSjjCBdDK7ypw/the-transparent-society-a-radical-transformation-that-we |
# Book Review: Ages Of Discord
**I.**
I recently reviewed [Secular Cycles](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/12/book-review-secular-cycles/), which presents a demographic-structural theory of the growth and decline of pre-industrial civilizations. When land is plentiful, population grows and the economy prospers. Wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bPH2az479gzxDMbf/book-review-ages-of-discord |
# AIXSU - AI and X-risk Strategy Unconference
**Start:** Friday, November 29, 10am
**End:** Sunday, December 1, 7pm
**Location:** [EA Hotel](http://eahotel.org/wiki/#travel), 36 York Street, Blackpool
**AIXSU** is an unconference on AI and existential risk strategy. As it is an unconference, the event will be cre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/QBqzEsX64M5ZyaLPS/aixsu-ai-and-x-risk-strategy-unconference |
# [Hammertime Final Exam] Quantum Walk, Oracles and Sunk Meaning
One and a half years ago, [alkjash](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/alkjash) published his [Hammertime](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/qRxTKm7DAftSuTGvj) sequence. Admittedly a bit late to the party I recently went through the 30 days together with a few ot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wKsD4PL5iLt8LoDCt/hammertime-final-exam-quantum-walk-oracles-and-sunk-meaning |
# How Specificity Works
**This is Part II of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
You saw what mayhem we brought forth when we activated the first power of specificity, the power to [demolish bad arguments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFvZXFWbtvKvGiACJ/how-specificity-works |
# How to write good AI forecasting questions + Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
_This post introduces [an open-source database of 76 questions about AI progress, together with detailed resolution conditions, categorisations and several spreadsheets compiling outside views and data](https://airtab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yy3FCmdAbgSLePD7H/how-to-write-good-ai-forecasting-questions-question-database |
# Counterfactuals are an Answer, Not a Question
I'm going to subtly contradict my last post on logical counterfactuals. I now think that [raw or actually-consistent counterfactuals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRuWm4GxcTNPn4XDX/deconfusing-logical-counterfactuals) are just an especially useful model of what counte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ao7KLoBEvMdHFjrNZ/counterfactuals-are-an-answer-not-a-question |
# Caching on Success
What I previously took from [Cached Thoughts](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MD3NMLBPCqPfnfre/cached-thoughts) was primarily us failing to examine memes before trotting them out on cue. Some snippet of information A gets lodged \*from outside\* as the response to some question Q. Whenever Q app... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W6cdNgWuaF5W382Wk/caching-on-success |
# The Power to Judge Startup Ideas
**This is Part III of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
When Steve [claims](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FfrWGCEhZJbkeFgww/the-power-to-demolish-bad-arguments) that Acme exploits its workers, he's r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iMQmfgieRKY62MC3z/the-power-to-judge-startup-ideas |
# Stories About Education
_This is the 3rd post of 5 containing the transcript of a podcast hosted by Eric Weinstein interviewing Peter Thiel._
Interview
=========
Student Debt
------------
**Peter Thiel:** It's like, again, if you come back to something as reductionist as the ever escalating student debt, you know... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tr7odHgFfKQHLwQ7Y/stories-about-education |
# Living the Berkeley idealism
Quick observation, more funny than insightful.
Today I was thinking about how to publish my thesis when it's finished, and rethinking again what format to put it in. The standard pdf format seems reasonable, but it is merely made of digital print, with no interactivity. Putting in inter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XadC7WywyEmu53yf/living-the-berkeley-idealism |
# Utility ≠ Reward
This essay is an adaptation of a talk I gave at the [Human-Aligned AI Summer School 2019](http://humanaligned.ai/index-2019.html) about [our work on mesa-optimisation](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB). My goal here is to write an informal, accessible and intuitive introduction to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bG4PR9uSsZqHg2gYY/utility-reward |
# How important are model sizes to your timeline predictions?
I'm thinking of doing a paper for GovAI on model sizes if they matter. Any or all of the following would be helpful:
1) If you found out that the largest published neural net model sizes (by # of parameters) will grow by 10000x in the next 6 years, would t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8dy58FYBTQfA3jXWY/how-important-are-model-sizes-to-your-timeline-predictions |
# How to Throw Away Information
[Probability as Minimal Map](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lz2nCYnBeaZyS68Xb/probability-as-minimal-map) argued that the probability P\[q|X\] is a minimal representation of the information in data X which is relevant to the query q. In other words, P\[q|X\] is a perfectly efficient m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DEDcFw6zWfW9nb2YM/how-to-throw-away-information |
# Seven habits towards highly effective minds
Lately I’ve been thinking about how my thinking works, and how it can be improved. The simplest way to do so is probably to nudge myself towards paying more attention to various useful habits of mind. Here are the ones I've found most valuable (roughly in order):
1. Ty... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7HHoC2RsJAFB3dvJm/seven-habits-towards-highly-effective-minds |
# SSC Meetups Everywhere: Community Map on frontpage this month
To celebrate and help people find meetups for this year's [SSC meetups everywhere](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/28/meetups-everywhere-2019/), we are pinning the big community map to the frontpage map again for the month of September (as we did last ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LsKd3reLMNzb43aNf/ssc-meetups-everywhere-community-map-on-frontpage-this-month |
# Who To Root For: 2019 College Football Edition
Epistemic Status: Unquestionably Accurate
Football, like all sports, is better with someone to root for, and someone to root against. It’s us versus them. Ideally, it’s our house, because no one beats us in our house. That gives us a baseline heuristic – root, root roo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/viP9LLynN8ovNk782/who-to-root-for-2019-college-football-edition |
# Does anyone else feel LessWrong is slow?
Ever since the rewrite of LW, I've felt that performance has taken a pretty big hit. Even compared to other large sites like Facebook, LW seems to take longer to render.
I'm hoping someone from the dev team can answer if performance is something that has been optimized for?... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsvwa4L7kL9ZQ7nWu/does-anyone-else-feel-lesswrong-is-slow |
# Political Violence and Distraction Theories
_This is the 4th post of 5 containing the transcript of a podcast hosted by Eric Weinstein interviewing Peter Thiel._
Interview
=========
Automation
----------
**Eric Weinstein:** So, this is why I try to sell you sometimes on a more progressive view of the world, which... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d56EodYNMvvQMMRWT/political-violence-and-distraction-theories |
# Running Effective Structured Forecasting Sessions
(pt.4 of our [Forecasting Infrastructure series](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HknKjvSxbFAAQ3RdL))
_Tl;dr: We’re sharing our [structured forecasting session format](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1DLXrI-uGlFhMzyNfSZ9QjVCOZa4blJsjhJcS8KsDagE/edit?usp=sharing)._
**... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rjb3y5psiqMFJoiM7/running-effective-structured-forecasting-sessions |
# Concrete experiments in inner alignment
_This post is part of research I did at OpenAI with mentoring and guidance from Paul Christiano._
The goal of this post is to present my thoughts on some of the sorts of experiments that might be able to be done now that could shed light on the [inner alignment problem](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uSdPa9nrSgmXCtdKN/concrete-experiments-in-inner-alignment |
# What are concrete examples of potential "lock-in" in AI research?
I had some colleagues watch Ben Garfinkel's talk, "[How sure are we about this AI stuff?](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/articles/ea-global-2018-how-sure-are-we-about-this-ai-stuff/)", which among other things, pointed out that it's often difficult... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iGaZGBrPodYeur6X/what-are-concrete-examples-of-potential-lock-in-in-ai |
# AI Safety "Success Stories"
AI safety researchers often describe their long term goals as building "safe and efficient AIs", but don't always mean the same thing by this or other seemingly similar phrases. Asking about their "success stories" (i.e., scenarios in which their line of research helps contribute to a pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bnY3L48TtDrKTzGRb/ai-safety-success-stories |
# Russian x-risks newsletter, summer 2019
This is the first Russian x-risks newsletter, which will present news about Russia and global catastrophic risks from the last 3 months.
Given the combination of high technological capabilities, poor management, high risk tolerance and attempts to catch up with West and China... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PNC5b9LLGcizpL8no/russian-x-risks-newsletter-summer-2019 |
# Integrating the Lindy Effect
Suppose the following:
1\. Your intelligence is directly proportional to how many useful things you know.
2\. Your intelligence increases when your learn things and decreases as the world changes and the things you know go out-of-date.
How quickly the things you know become irrelevant... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NCzfvp7jmbouodsRP/integrating-the-lindy-effect |
# Are we living at the most influential time in history?
Will MacAskill has been posting [several articles](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/william_macaskill) on the EA Forum. This one seems especially interesting for a LessWrong audience. In it Will approaches the title question by attempting to create an o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s6nmayBgQfEkjCdcE/are-we-living-at-the-most-influential-time-in-history |
# Are minimal circuits deceptive?
_This post is part of research I did at OpenAI with mentoring and guidance from Paul Christiano._
One possible [inner alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820) technique is to structure your learning algorithm’s inductive biases such that it is far more likely for it to produce an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fM5ZWGDbnjb7ThNKJ/are-minimal-circuits-deceptive |
# Age gaps and Birth order: Failed reproduction of results
Summary
=======
I attempted to reproduce Scott’s analysis of [Birth order effect vs Age gap](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/05/14/age-gaps-and-birth-order-effects/). I found that:
1\. There appeared to be an error in graphs 2 & 3 where people with one sibli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uZEeqmeFjs3nmawn7/age-gaps-and-birth-order-failed-reproduction-of-results |
# Age gaps and Birth order: Reanalysis
This post follows on from my [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uZEeqmeFjs3nmawn7/age-gaps-and-birth-order-failed-reproduction-of-results) detailing some areas where I was unable to reproduce Scott’s [analysis](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/05/14/age-gaps-and-birth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YnXd7zfGGZfMD9QtA/age-gaps-and-birth-order-reanalysis |
# The Power to Make Scientific Breakthroughs
**This is Part IV of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
So far, everything we've accomplished with our specificity powers has been admittedly kind of destructive: demolishing bad arguments, ju... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aNS2Qhq6JXReCQd22/the-power-to-make-scientific-breakthroughs |
# Stories About Progress
_This is the 5th post of 5 containing the transcript of a podcast hosted by Eric Weinstein interviewing Peter Thiel._
Interview
=========
Girard’s Mimetic Theories
-------------------------
**Eric Weinstein:** So let me return back to the line of inquiry. I mean, sorry, just enjoying so muc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nDmRPHYxZQibd22PZ/stories-about-progress |
# Looking for answers about quantum immortality.
I've been recently been obsessing over the risks of [quantum torment](http://www.andrewmbailey.com/dkl/How_Many_Lives.pdf), and in the course of my research downloaded this article: [https://philpapers.org/rec/TURFAA-3](https://philpapers.org/rec/TURFAA-3)
Here's a quo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6wkY2DcCnzNyJTDsw/looking-for-answers-about-quantum-immortality |
# Portland SSC Meetup 10/01/19 (ETA: afterparty following)
Scott's planning to visit Portland on October 1st, and in honor of the occasion, we're having an SSC meetup! We'll meet at Cartopia, on 1207 Southeast Hawthorne. It's a food cart pod with many options -- outside, but covered from rain. I'll get there at 7 PM (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/TYffzKapnwxKv6EHe/portland-ssc-meetup-10-01-19-eta-afterparty-following |
# Survival and Flourishing Fund grant applications open until October 4th ($1MM-$2MM planned for dispersal)
The Survival and Flourishing Fund is a new fund that (as I understand it) [is taking over a significant chunk](http://existence.org/tallinn-grants-future/) of the Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative's (BERI) gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CcAnPPKmPmbXxtWME/survival-and-flourishing-fund-grant-applications-open-until |
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