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# Simple and composite partial preferences
[Partial preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BydQtwfN97pFwEWtW/toy-model-piece-1-partial-preferences-revisited) are preferences that exist within a human's internal model, eg "this painting is better than that one", "I don't like getting punched", "that was embarrass... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eptGDwahJPvhqDgvF/simple-and-composite-partial-preferences |
# Shallow Review of Consistency in Statement Evaluation
Overview
========
Most existing forecasting or evaluation platform questions are for very clearly verifiable questions:
* "Who will win the next election?"
* "How many cars will Tesla sell in 2030?"
* “How many jelly beans are in this jar?”
But many of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ESpw8p5kJy9zo4nNC/shallow-review-of-consistency-in-statement-evaluation |
# Is my result wrong? Maths vs intuition vs evolution in learning human preferences
The mathematical result is clear: [you cannot deduce human preferences merely by observing human behaviour](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) (even with [simplicity priors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov_complexity)).
Yet ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2KLz6RQWkCj4Rozrk/is-my-result-wrong-maths-vs-intuition-vs-evolution-in |
# Counterfactual Oracles = online supervised learning with random selection of training episodes
Most people here probably already understand this by now, so this is more to prevent new people from getting confused about the point of Counterfactual Oracles (in the ML setting) because there's not a top-level post that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yAiqLmLFxvyANSfs2/counterfactual-oracles-online-supervised-learning-with |
# Hackable Rewards as a Safety Valve?
Reading Deepmind's latest [research](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.04734) and [accompanying blogpost,](https://medium.com/@deepmindsafetyresearch/designing-agent-incentives-to-avoid-reward-tampering-4380c1bb6cd) I wanted to highlight an under-appreciated aspect of safety. As a bit of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RdvPS5LawYxLuHLH/hackable-rewards-as-a-safety-valve |
# Free-to-Play Games: Three Key Trade-Offs
Most free-to-play games, especially mobile free-to-play games, use similar models to extract revenue and keep players coming back. These models work by creating toxic trade-offs that are central to their functioning. This post highlights the main three, and will act as refere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XWMvQvdu2v7mBxRTj/free-to-play-games-three-key-trade-offs |
# [AN #63] How architecture search, meta learning, and environment design could lead to general intelligence
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9G5JYbXZ3QK9aXTm/an-63-how-architecture-search-meta-learning-and-environment |
# Relaxed adversarial training for inner alignment
_This post is part of research I did at OpenAI with mentoring and guidance from Paul Christiano. It also represents my current agenda regarding what I believe looks like the most promising approach for addressing [inner alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)._
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Dy5YRaoCxH9zuJqa/relaxed-adversarial-training-for-inner-alignment |
# Rationality Exercises Prize of September 2019 ($1,000)
_Added: Prizewinners announced in_ _[this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5CWpknwhonrpffKMH/rationality-exercises-prize-of-september-2019-usd1-000#eFWXrCywHtyP4xibu)_ _comment below._
This post is an announcement of a prize for the best exercises submitted in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5CWpknwhonrpffKMH/rationality-exercises-prize-of-september-2019-usd1-000 |
# What are the merits of signing up for cryonics with Alcor vs. with the Cryonics Institute?
I am signing up for cryonics this year, and I need to figure out if I should pay extra to do it with Alcor instead of CI.
What's the balance of evidence on this question?
With which organization have most cryonicist LessWron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FCBXymiYSM7umpGry/what-are-the-merits-of-signing-up-for-cryonics-with-alcor-vs |
# Conversation with Paul Christiano
AI Impacts talked to AI safety researcher Paul Christiano about his views on AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview.
**Participants**
----------------
* [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/) — OpenAI safety team
* Asya Bergal – AI Impacts
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qnYZmtpNPZyqHpot9/conversation-with-paul-christiano |
# Toy model piece #4: partial preferences, re-re-visited
## Two failed attempts
I initially defined [partial preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CiB3myyeEhFRgmKPL/partial-preferences-and-models) in terms of foreground variables $Y$ and background variables $Z$.
Then a partial preference would be defined by ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2vnJmWDAaLKDayvwr/toy-model-piece-4-partial-preferences-re-re-visited |
# Toy model piece #5: combining partial preferences
My previous approach to combining preferences went like this: from the partial preferences $P_i$, create a normalised utility function $\widehat{U}_i$ that is defined over all worlds (and which is indifferent to the information that didn't appear in the partial model... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ucG63yw3JgP3rW7tH/toy-model-piece-5-combining-partial-preferences |
# Predictable Identities - Midpoint Review
_Predictable Identities_ is a series that [I’m writing on Ribbonfarm](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/series/predictable-identities/); you can also track its chronological progress [on Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/02/20/predictable-identities/) with short summarie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BCwPswrtkJZ8nxMST/predictable-identities-midpoint-review |
# Answering some questions about EA
A teacher in Vienna recently wrote to say that they had assigned [an article](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/22/extreme-altruism-should-you-care-for-strangers-as-much-as-family) about us as part of a Social Issues class, and asked whether I would be up for answering ques... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gaEvWWqDzpSyDecuB/answering-some-questions-about-ea |
# The Power to Solve Climate Change
**This is Part V of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
**Companion post:** [Examples of Examples](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JJxByXddxEDciG5dA/examples-of-examples)
Most people agree that climate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rm2MueK3LxpRywE8N/the-power-to-solve-climate-change |
# The Power to Understand "God"
**This is Part VI of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
“God” is a classic case of something that people should be more specific about. Today’s average college-educated person talking about God sounds like... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6xWqNXDS9w4R57szj/the-power-to-understand-god |
# Who's an unusual thinker that you recommend following?
Some (optional!) desiderata to guide your recommendation:
* They _probably_ have not been heard of around these parts.
* They disagree with a consensus.
* They have genuinely original thoughts.
* You have updated from their views and/or been emotionally... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s4mqFdgTfsjfwGFiQ/who-s-an-unusual-thinker-that-you-recommend-following |
# What You See Isn't Always What You Want
_To aid communication, I’m going append a technical rephrasing after some paragraphs._
It’s known to be hard to give non-trivial goals to reinforcement learning agents. However, I haven’t seen much discussion of the following: even ignoring wireheading, it seems impossible to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AeHtdxHheMjHredaq/what-you-see-isn-t-always-what-you-want |
# Reversal Tests in Argument and Debate
One thing that I've noticed recently is that simple reversal tests can be very useful for detecting bias when it comes to evaluating policy arguments or points made in a debate.
In other words, when encountering an argument it can be useful to think "Would I accept this sort of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oqi7CStmZKwTaK2di/reversal-tests-in-argument-and-debate |
# Theory of Ideal Agents, or of Existing Agents?
Within the context of AI safety, why do we want a [theory of agency](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh/p/p7x32SEt43ZMC9r7r)? I see two main reasons:
* We expect AI have agenty properties, so we want to know how to design agenty systems which e.g. perform ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zQZcWkvEA8DLjKR7C/theory-of-ideal-agents-or-of-existing-agents |
# A Critique of Functional Decision Theory
A Critique of Functional Decision Theory
_NB: My writing this note was prompted by Carl Shulman, who suggested we could try a low-time-commitment way of attempting to understanding the disagreement between some folks in the rationality community and academic decision theoris... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ySLYSsNeFL5CoAQzN/a-critique-of-functional-decision-theory |
# Do Sufficiently Advanced Agents Use Logic?
_This is a continuation of a discussion with Vanessa from the MIRIxDiscord group. I'll make some comments on things Vanessa has said, but those should not be considered a summary of the discussion so far. My comments here are also informed by discussion with Sam._
1: Logic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3qXE6fK47JhSfkpnB/do-sufficiently-advanced-agents-use-logic |
# Reframing the evolutionary benefit of sex
_Automatically crossposted from [https://sideways-view.com](https://sideways-view.com/)_
From the perspective of an organism trying to propagate its genes, sex is like a trade: I’ll put half of your DNA in my offspring if you put half of my DNA in yours. I still pass one co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SAvwF9F7rjmP6oZQj/reframing-the-evolutionary-benefit-of-sex |
# If you had to pick one thing you've read that changed the course of your life, what would it be?
Found on Twitter: [https://mobile.twitter.com/paulg/status/1172767548363935744](https://mobile.twitter.com/paulg/status/1172767548363935744)
Personal answer:
1\. This [WaitButWhy article](https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Smx49aKkpSdsyiNE3/if-you-had-to-pick-one-thing-you-ve-read-that-changed-the |
# Arguing Well Sequence
Arguments have the potential to allow you to connect and understand with someone else on a deep level, to introspect and figure out what you truly believe and care about, and to find out what is true so you can accomplish your goals!
Most people use it to dominate or talk past each other.
But... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FthQatMGBajcFt7Sj/arguing-well-sequence |
# Proving Too Much (w/ exercises)
_This is the first post in the [Arguing Well](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FthQatMGBajcFt7Sj/arguing-well-sequence) sequence. This post is influenced by Scott Alexander's write up on [Proving too Much](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/13/proving-too-much/)._
_\[edit: Reformatted... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tAqPJhdWE2tMJnWvg/proving-too-much-w-exercises |
# Focus
One of the things I have the hardest time with is focus. I have times when focus comes easily, and I get a week's worth of work done in hours, come up with ideas that need sustained thinking, write blog posts that have been bouncing around my head for years. Other times my attention is flighty, and I have to s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/baAcssEcLuqCy7389/focus |
# Category Qualifications (w/ exercises)
_This is the second post in the_ _[Arguing Well](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FthQatMGBajcFt7Sj/arguing-well-sequence)_ _sequence. This post is influenced by [A Human's Guide to Words](https://www.readthesequences.com/A-Humans-Guide-To-Words-Sequence') and [Against Lie Infla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4vQuNSwJvPFs7mSSs/category-qualifications-w-exercises |
# Are there technical/object-level fields that make sense to recruit to LessWrong?
LessWrong is about learning rationality, and applying rationality to interesting problems.
An issue is that solving interesting problems often requires fairly deep technical knowledge of a field. To use rationality to help solving prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KFBhguD7dSjtmRLeg/are-there-technical-object-level-fields-that-make-sense-to |
# The Power to Be Emotionally Mature
**This is Part VII of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
When [Steve](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FfrWGCEhZJbkeFgww/the-power-to-demolish-bad-arguments) unknowingly lacks an understanding of what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h9ZfYJtpKYxBnGymP/the-power-to-be-emotionally-mature |
# Realism and Rationality
_Format warning: This post has somehow ended up consisting primarily of substantive endnotes. It should be fine to read just the (short) main body without looking at any of the endnotes, though. The endnotes elaborate on various claims and distinctions and also include a much longer discussio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GqTeChFnXdJzDzbMd/realism-and-rationality-2 |
# Divergence on Evidence Due to Differing Priors - A Political Case Study
(This uses a politically charged topic as an example, but I'm hoping that people are willing to try to understand the points made despite that. Politics is Hard Mode, and I'm hoping to stay at a lower difficulty level for now, so I've asked that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7o6kc3EmEhCGPZMpv/divergence-on-evidence-due-to-differing-priors-a-political |
# Exercises for Overcoming Akrasia and Procrastination
In order to enter the "Rationality Exercises" competition, I've decided to create this cliffnotes version of my upcoming sequence on overcoming akrasia and procrastination.
[Please enter any meta comments, or comments not pertaining to a particular exercise here.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bbEzsn9b6R64vHX8G/exercises-for-overcoming-akrasia-and-procrastination |
# The strategy-stealing assumption
Suppose that 1% of the world’s resources are controlled by unaligned AI, and 99% of the world’s resources are controlled by humans. We might hope that at least 99% of the universe’s resources end up being used for stuff-humans-like (in expectation).
Jessica Taylor argued for this co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nRAMpjnb6Z4Qv3imF/the-strategy-stealing-assumption |
# [AN #64]: Using Deep RL and Reward Uncertainty to Incentivize Preference Learning
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6F... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JxWggFXcKrPKy7p8t/an-64-using-deep-rl-and-reward-uncertainty-to-incentivize |
# A framework for speed reading
Chances are you've heard about speed reading. A magical technique that allows you to glance at a page of text and immediately extract all of its meaning. But after digging deeper and trying the techniques yourself, you realized that it does not seem to work for you. You may even feel gu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcdYqj9rQZ8RfywbD/a-framework-for-speed-reading |
# Effective Altruism and Everyday Decisions
> *
>
> * Ask for your drink without a straw.
> * Unplug your microwave when not in use.
> * Bring a water bottle to events.
> * Stop using air conditioning.
> * Choose products that minimize packaging.
>
> *
I've recently heard people advocate for all of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/osYpTFChRr9Rq4m8i/effective-altruism-and-everyday-decisions |
# Bioinfohazards
_Authors: Megan Crawford, Finan Adamson, Jeffrey Ladish_
_Special Thanks to Georgia Ray for Editing_
**Biorisk**
Most in the effective altruism community are aware of a possible existential threat from biological technology but not much beyond that. The form biological threats could take is unclear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ygFc4caQ6Nws62dSW/bioinfohazards |
# Modes of Petrov Day
_Last updated Sept 16, 2019_
> September 26 is Petrov Day.
> In 1983, the story of humanity nearly ended. We’re gathered here to remember that moment, and others like it.
> But to experience the magnitude of those events, we need to visit them in their proper context. Let us begin the story of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day |
# Meetups as Institutions for Intellectual Progress
_Epistemic status: Not a historian of science, but I have thought fairly extensively about meetups. Kind of making this up as I go along, almost certainly missing important points._
_Other meta: Written all in one sitting, to not let the perfect be the enemy of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TBbPTBdApovxhM7NC/meetups-as-institutions-for-intellectual-progress |
# Jane Street Inteview Guide (Notes on Probability, Markets, etc.)
Context: I'm currently prepping for a Jane Street trader intern interview. They sent me this guide to look over and, while there's not a lot that's new to me or LW, it's got a lot of concepts that are popular here on LW (expected value, conditional pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RjxmjLKwaXfyenucC/jane-street-inteview-guide-notes-on-probability-markets-etc |
# The YouTube Revolution in Knowledge Transfer
_This article was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can_ _[access the original here.](http://samoburja.com/the-youtube-revolution-in-knowledge-transfer/)_
Growing up as an aspiring javel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RXLbe6oZGxNWvQawn/the-youtube-revolution-in-knowledge-transfer |
# False Dilemmas w/ exercises
_This is the third post in the [Arguing Well](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FthQatMGBajcFt7Sj/arguing-well-sequence) sequence, but it can be understood on its own. This post is influenced by [False Dilemma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma), [The Third alternative](https://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8iQ3oT4kZvraTvrZ/false-dilemmas-w-exercises |
# [Site Feature] Link Previews
Links in posts and comments now display a hover-preview when linking to LessWrong content.
For instance, this [link to an old post by Scott Alexander](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mja6jZ6k9gAwki9Nu/the-mystery-of-the-haunted-rationalist) will display the title, first couple paragraph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tmdRw8h6hm7rCsfiu/site-feature-link-previews |
# Three Stories for How AGI Comes Before FAI
*Epistemic status: fake framework*
To do effective differential technological development for AI safety, we'd like to know which combinations of AI insights are more likely to lead to FAI vs UFAI. This is an overarching strategic consideration which feeds into questions l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Z8pMDfDduAwtwpcX/three-stories-for-how-agi-comes-before-fai |
# The unexpected difficulty of comparing AlphaStar to humans
*This is crossposted from the [AI Impacts blog.](https://aiimpacts.org/the-unexpected-difficulty-of-comparing-alphastar-to-humans/)*
Artificial intelligence defeated a pair of professional Starcraft II players for the first time in December 2018. Although t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FpcgSoJDNNEZ4BQfj/the-unexpected-difficulty-of-comparing-alphastar-to-humans |
# What technical prereqs would I need in order to understand Stuart Armstrong's research agenda?
I've looked at a few of Stuart Armstrong's posts that he put up related to his research agenda (though only ones before he posted the full agenda), and felt like I was missing some prereqs. My background is in philosophy. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T7vqbS9egaopTuQJb/what-technical-prereqs-would-i-need-in-order-to-understand |
# Don't depend on others to ask for explanations
I'm often reluctant to ask for explanations on LW, and to typical-mind a bit I think this may be true of others as well. This suggests that when you're writing something for public consumption, it's better to err on the side of too much rather than too little explanatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CJLt4ehxE5d35os23/don-t-depend-on-others-to-ask-for-explanations |
# Gears vs Behavior
_Thankyou to [Sisi Cheng](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/sisi-cheng) (of the [Working as Intended](https://www.instagram.com/workingasintendedcomic/) comic) for the excellent drawings._
.
_Things that happen offline notice: if you’re reading this I strongly predict that you will enjoy attending a_ _[Slate Star Codex meetup](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/12/ssc-meetups-2019-times-and-p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/52r88pHK9qLjTj9as/interview-with-aella-part-i |
# Novum Organum: Introduction
_In light of its value as a rationalist text, its historical influence on the progress of science, and its general expression of the philosophy and vision which guides... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction |
# Novum Organum: Preface
**Previously:** [Ruby's introduction to the Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction)
_We have used Francis Bacon's Novum Organum in the version presented at_ _[www.earlymoderntexts.com](http://www.earlymoderntexts.com/). Translated ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MYNNvgxSYmK7f4JBt/novum-organum-preface-1 |
# Relabelings vs. External References
The following distinction is crucial to my understanding of consciousness and epistemology. It is also extremely useful for seeing through some of the language games people play in terms of framing. There are fundamentally two ways in which we can define entities and much confusio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xwxbfob5rSr6umyt4/relabelings-vs-external-references |
# The Zettelkasten Method
_\[Epistemic Status: Scroll to the bottom for my follow-up thoughts on this from months/years later.\]_
Early this year, Conor White-Sullivan introduced me to the Zettelkasten method of note-taking. I would say that this significantly increased my research productivity. I’ve been saying “at ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfdHG6oHBJ8Qxc26s/the-zettelkasten-method-1 |
# Everyday belief in diminishing returns is resistant to diminishing returns
_Epistemic status: A mental piton, to hang your climbing rope on_
The second half hour of cardio you do in a day matters less to your overall happiness and health than the first half hour you do, the second quarter-hour, the first quarter-ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x88ijGK2DnerBpRAM/everyday-belief-in-diminishing-returns-is-resistant-to |
# Synthesis of subagents: exercise
**What topics is the exercise related to:**
1\. Mitigation of cognitive distortions such as the stereotype of physical attractiveness
2\. Sequence "[Multiagent models of mind](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M4w2rdYgCKctbADMn/sequence-introduction-non-agent-and-multiagent-models-of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CcrkwmoDLsTbgZBKJ/synthesis-of-subagents-exercise |
# Reframing Impact
_ _sequence, but it can be understood on its own. This post is influenced by [double crux](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/THj3Q6p9NsDvmsMAF/finding-cruxes |
# What are the differences between all the iterative/recursive approaches to AI alignment?
I have been trying to understand all the iterative/recursive approaches to AI alignment. The approaches I am aware of are:
- ALBA (I get the vague impression that this has been superseded by iterated amplification, so I haven't... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cYduioQNeHALQAMre/what-are-the-differences-between-all-the-iterative-recursive |
# Meetups: Climbing uphill, flowing downhill, and the Uncanny Summit
_Epistemic status: rough partial-model formed from... well, basically a single conversation, but which resonated with several years of vague accumulated impressions. Curious if it resonates or anti-resonates with others._
In the comments of Mingyuan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qNNTuJ45ekphPsuLX/meetups-climbing-uphill-flowing-downhill-and-the-uncanny |
# Taxing investment income is complicated
How should a state tax investment income if it wants to maximize its citizens’ welfare? This sounds like a simple question but I find it surprisingly hard to think about. Here are some of the positions I’ve moved through over the last few years:
* Taxing investment has dist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2XRu8eqiyprB4of2a/taxing-investment-income-is-complicated |
# Timer Toxicities
Follow-up to: [Free-to-Play Games: Three Key Trade-Offs](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/09/10/free-to-play-games-two-key-trade-offs/)
The central free-to-play mechanic is to ration action and resources via real world time. This leads to two of the [three key trade offs.](https://thezvi.wordpress... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dGzuDr4955x5mNZ53/timer-toxicities |
# The Power to Teach Concepts Better
**This is Part VIII of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
When you teach someone a concept, you’re building a structure in their mind by connecting up some of their mental concepts in a certain way. B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CD2kRisJcdBRLhrC5/the-power-to-teach-concepts-better |
# Value Impact
**This is the third post in the [Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** [**the** **sequence introduction**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction)**.**
_We have u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TuPA9JXLSafSC4Knh/the-inadequacy-of-current-science-novum-organum-book-1-1-37 |
# [AN #65]: Learning useful skills by watching humans “play”
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GPADepj6yP8zqSbJh/an-65-learning-useful-skills-by-watching-humans-play |
# Therapy vs emotional support
There's a misconception that therapy is like paying someone to be your friend. While most therapists would disagree with that statement, there is a kernel of truth; therapy can often focus on emotional support, and getting those needs met. I sometimes joke that when friends need help, we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rdW8vS5o3sTW8FdsP/therapy-vs-emotional-support |
# Towards an empirical investigation of inner alignment
I recently wrote [a post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uSdPa9nrSgmXCtdKN/concrete-experiments-in-inner-alignment) detailing some concrete experiments that could be done now to start learning interesting things about [inner alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2GycxikGnepJbxfHT/towards-an-empirical-investigation-of-inner-alignment |
# Heads I Win, Tails?—Never Heard of Her; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of the Green Rationalists
**Followup to:** [What Evidence Filtered Evidence?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJiPnaQPiy4p9Eqki/what-evidence-filtered-evidence)
In ["What Evidence Filtered Evidence?"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoPo4PDjgSySquHX8/heads-i-win-tails-never-heard-of-her-or-selective-reporting |
# On Becoming Clueless
It is said that every year the IQ needed to destroy the world drops by one point.
Well, yes, but let me add a different spin on the problem:
Every year, the IQ needed to make sense of the world raises by one point.
If your IQ is 100 and you want to see yourself in 2039 just ask somebody with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oXssvfhPxvCKMvseC/on-becoming-clueless |
# The MA Estate Tax is Broken
There's a [common misconception](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/7/18171975/tax-bracket-marginal) that crossing the boundary into a higher tax bracket hurts you. In a sensibly designed tax system how much money you have after taxes, as a function of how much money you have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x2KwxjzJBbqwvq5Sz/the-ma-estate-tax-is-broken |
# Idols of the Mind Pt. 1 (Novum Organum Book 1: 38–52)
**This is the fourth post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction).**
_We have used Francis ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GRGk3468ozwrHPYkm/idols-of-the-mind-pt-1-novum-organum-book-1-38-52 |
# Deducing Impact
[](
\]
Each December I've been running music for the [Boston Secular ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qxJf97SGFcmpWGdCZ/resetting-somebody-will |
# A simple environment for showing mesa misalignment
A few days ago, Evan Hubinger [suggested](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2GycxikGnepJbxfHT/towards-an-empirical-investigation-of-inner-alignment) creating a [mesa optimizer](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/q2rCMHNXazALgQpGH/conditions-for-mesa-optimizatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AFdRGfYDWQqmkdhFq/a-simple-environment-for-showing-mesa-misalignment |
# Honoring Petrov Day on LessWrong, in 2019
Just after midnight last night, 125 LessWrong users received the following email.
> Subject Line: *Honoring Petrov Day: I am trusting you with the launch codes*
> Dear {{username}},
> Every Petrov Day, we practice not destroying the world. One particular way to do this is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019 |
# What is operations?
_This the first in a sequence of posts about “operations”._
_Acknowledgements to Malo Bourgon, Ray Arnold, Michelle Hutchinson, and Ruby for their feedback on this post._
My ops background
=================
Several years ago, I decided to focus on operations work for my career. From 2017 to 20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ra9Pt2JkEDnKW4jsc/what-is-operations |
# Resetting Somebody Will v2
Yesterday I [wrote about](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qxJf97SGFcmpWGdCZ/resetting-somebody-will) the song Somebody Will and why it's tricky in a group singing context, and shared a new melody I was playing with. After talking to some people about what they like about the original melod... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3rKTxZAWmiwKvAKi/resetting-somebody-will-v2 |
# Running the Stack
Look at the image here:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stack_(abstract\_data\_type)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stack_(abstract_data_type))
After looking at that image, you understand the concept well enough to use it as a mental model.
Hard-won lessons —
(1) I joke that "meditation is havin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZyyF5zvZriFZcvRnr/running-the-stack |
# Free Money at PredictIt?
Previously on Prediction Markets (among others): [Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/prediction-markets-when-do-they-work/), [Subsidizing Prediction Markets](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/08/17/subsidizing-prediction-markets/)
Epistemic Statu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qzRzQgxiZa3tPJJg8/free-money-at-predictit |
# Idols of the Mind Pt. 2 (Novum Organum Book 1: 53-68)
**This is the fifth post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction).**
_We have used Francis B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpwgYj6EyqzEwNjDE/idols-of-the-mind-pt-2-novum-organum-book-1-53-68 |
# Happy Petrov Day!
I don't care much about feast days or memorial days. Assumption of Mary? Meh. Slovak Constitution Day? Shrug. Labour Day? Real socialism had sucked all the joy out of that one.
The only one that I do observe is [Petrov Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident#Inc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DpiKi38Jq5z2aHvmo/happy-petrov-day-1 |
# Long-term Donation Bunching?
Let's say you're a relatively well-off American with an income of $100k and have taken the [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) pledge to donate 10% of your money to the most effective charities you can find. The standard deduction in the US is currently $12k, which mea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fXKSQue2kbzwEN3R9/long-term-donation-bunching |
# Attainable Utility Theory: Why Things Matter
_If you haven't read the prior posts, please do so now. This sequence can be spoiled._
 .
Evan has been calling this thing "myopia". Scott has been calling it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hdHto3uHejhY2F3Q/partial-agency |
# Follow-Up to Petrov Day, 2019
Hurrah! Success! I didn't know what to expect, and am pleasantly surprised to find the Frontpage is still intact. My thanks to everyone who took part, to everyone who commented on [yesterday's post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019 |
# Is Specificity a Mental Model?
**This is Part IX of the [Specificity Sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XosKB3mkvmXMZ3fBQ/specificity-your-brain-s-superpower)**
I've recently noticed a lot of smart people publishing lists of **mental models**. They're apparently having a moment:
* [Mental Models: The Best... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FsYfkJNoNuEo7bW9R/is-specificity-a-mental-model |
# Kohli episode discussion in 80K's Christiano interview
From the 80,000 Hours Podcast (1:10:38):
* * *
**Robert Wiblin:** A few weeks ago, we published [our conversation with Pushmeet Kohli](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/pushmeet-kohli-deepmind-safety-research/), who’s an AI robustness and reliability res... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGszfaxoDurvzzZmb/kohli-episode-discussion-in-80k-s-christiano-interview |
# Christiano decision theory excerpt
A transcribed excerpt I found interesting from the [decision theory outtake](https://80k.link/christiano-outtake) from 80,000 Hours' [second interview](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/paul-christiano-a-message-for-the-future/) of Paul Christiano (starting at 14:00):
* * *
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n6wajkE3Tpfn6sd5j/christiano-decision-theory-excerpt |
# Candy for Nets
Yesterday morning my five-year-old daughter was asking me about mosquitos, and we got on to talking about malaria, [nets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito_net), and how [Julia](http://www.givinggladly.com/) and I [donate](https://www.jefftk.com/donations) to the [AMF](https://www.givewell.org/ch... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NY6nGxC9GycdWxRpp/candy-for-nets |
# The Thinking Ladder - Wait But Why
[The Thinking Ladder](https://waitbutwhy.com/2019/09/thinking-ladder.html) is the latest post in a huge ongoing Wait But Why series called [The Story of Us](https://waitbutwhy.com/2019/08/story-of-us.html).
> Our beliefs make up our perception of reality, they drive our behavior, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uqpKC4nbJNgeWYmwM/the-thinking-ladder-wait-but-why |
# Noticing Frame Differences
**Previously:** [Keeping Beliefs Cruxy](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/hBFDRZCPLcrRDubgm/p/BmyoYkr7u2oas4ukn)
* * *
When disagreements persist despite lengthy good-faith communication, it may not just be about factual disagreements – it could be due to people operating in entirely different... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f886riNJcArmpFahm/noticing-frame-differences |
# What's your favorite notetaking system?
Abram recently wrote up the [Zettelkasten](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfdHG6oHBJ8Qxc26s/the-zettelkasten-method-1) system for notetaking while doing research. Do you have an opinion on an alternative system, and if so, what is it?
Things you might optionally include but ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wg9xC2BdjMXwbYNxb/what-s-your-favorite-notetaking-system |
# Thermal Mass Thermos
A thermos does a great job with liquids: the insulation means you can pour in hot soup in the morning, and enjoy hot soup at lunch. But it doesn't do nearly as good a job with solids: fill one with rice and it quickly falls into the "danger zone".
One recommendation you'll see is that you shoul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JCEpS5WGkgNiCXdbR/thermal-mass-thermos |
# [AN #66]: Decomposing robustness into capability robustness and alignment robustness
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbW... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Epm6CkXrdRyAihMRe/an-66-decomposing-robustness-into-capability-robustness-and |
# Connectome-specific harmonic waves and meditation
**TL;DR**: meditation is a process for altering the harmonics of brainwaves to produce good brain states.
Pulling together a few threads:
* The theory of [connectome-specific harmonic waves](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10340) suggests one thing that hap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pbFWf4tDKYW4X9D6X/connectome-specific-harmonic-waves-and-meditation |
# List of resolved confusions about IDA
AI Alignment is a confusing topic in general, but even compared to other alignment topics, [IDA](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.08575) seems especially confusing. Some of it is surely just due to the nature of communicating subtle and unfinished research ideas, but other confusions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FdfzFcRvqLf4k5eoQ/list-of-resolved-confusions-about-ida |
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