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# Elimination of Bias in Introspection: Methodological Advances, Refinements, and Recommendations
[Radek Trnka](https://philpapers.org/s/Radek%20Trnka) & [Vit Smelik](https://philpapers.org/s/Vit%20Smelik)
_[New Ideas in Psychology](https://philpapers.org/asearch.pl?pub=724)_ 56 (2020)
**Abstract**
Building on past... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n8RxZypaYLTzZkw3p/elimination-of-bias-in-introspection-methodological-advances |
# Please Take the 2019 EA Survey!
The 2019 Effective Altruism Survey is now live at the following link: [https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/EAS2019LW](https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/EAS2019LW)
The average completion time for this year’s survey is 20 minutes.
The survey will close on the 15th of October at midnight B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcTpoCCu4nX85WaZp/please-take-the-2019-ea-survey |
# Looking for remote writing partners (for AI alignment research)
I'm looking for other junior researchers to form a distributed writing group for
mutual support. Please get in touch if you're interested.
# Who?
One to three other people and I.
I do AI alignment research independently. I'm working on the Farlamp pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zXnFhQsYbHwLePPqS/looking-for-remote-writing-partners-for-ai-alignment |
# Communication and Waking Hours
One of the ways technology interacts with culture is about who's job it is to avoid contacting people at bad times. With older technologies there were clear conventions based on their limitations:
* Mail: you can send the letter whenever, and the person will deal with it when conven... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pLEWQ6Jrbhf8BWXiF/communication-and-waking-hours |
# What funding sources exist for technical AI safety research?
What funding sources exist? Who are they aimed at - people within academia, independent researchers, early-career researchers, established researchers? What sort of research are they aimed at - MIRI-style deconfusion, ML-style approaches, more theoretical,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9DenhM8deDziHiWZw/what-funding-sources-exist-for-technical-ai-safety-research |
# World State is the Wrong Abstraction for Impact
, this is a once-monthly updates for LessWrong team activities and announcements.
Please also feel free to use the comments section on this post as a Schelling point to give feedback, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RP6YoSzzRrMBxdgje/lw-team-updates-october-2019 |
# Open & Welcome Thread - October 2019
* If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
* You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/).
* And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself.
* Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rSxxvDQ6yFjWeMNeC/open-and-welcome-thread-october-2019 |
# Survival and Flourishing Fund Applications closing in 3 days
The grant round we announced a month ago for the new Survival and Flourishing Fund is closing in 3 days. We haven't gotten that many applications, so I would recommend applying.
[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CcAnPPKmPmbXxtWME/survival-and-flourishing-f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bGeyh856Zjo4F5b6v/survival-and-flourishing-fund-applications-closing-in-3-days |
# Does the US nuclear policy still target cities?
The history of nuclear strategic bombing
----------------------------------------
Daniel Ellsberg’s _[The Doomsday Machine](https://www.amazon.com/Doomsday-Machine-Confessions-Nuclear-Planner/dp/1608196704)_ brought my attention to a horrifying fact about early US nuc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rn2duwRP2pqvLqGCE/does-the-us-nuclear-policy-still-target-cities |
# Toy model #6: Rationality and partial preferences
In my [research agenda on synthesising human preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into), I didn't mention explicitly using human rationality to sort through conflicting [partial prefere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CG7oi95zG3knJ74s5/toy-model-6-rationality-and-partial-preferences |
# Human instincts, symbol grounding, and the blank-slate neocortex
# Intro: What is Common Cortical Algorithm (CCA) theory, and why does it matter for AGI?
As I discussed at [Jeff Hawkins on neuromorphic AGI within 20 years](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FoJSa8mgLPT83g9e8/jeff-hawkins-on-neuromorphic-agi-within-20-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NkSpukDkm9pjRdMdB/human-instincts-symbol-grounding-and-the-blank-slate |
# What are we assuming about utility functions?
I often notice that in many (not all) discussions about utility functions, one side is "for" their relevance, while others tend to be "against" their usefulness, without explicitly saying what they mean. I don't think this is causing any deep confusions among researchers... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q9JKKwSFybCTtMS9d/what-are-we-assuming-about-utility-functions |
# [Link] What do conservatives know that liberals don't (and vice versa)?
I am a PhD student currently conducting research on political polarization and persuasion. I am running an experiment that requires a database of trivia questions which conservatives are likely to get correct, and liberals are likely to get wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Payfy237TN9GDT2ej/link-what-do-conservatives-know-that-liberals-don-t-and-vice |
# Can we make peace with moral indeterminacy?
**The problem:**
Put humans in the ancestral environment, and they'll behave as if they like nutrition and reproducing. Put them in the modern environment, and they'll behave as if they like tasty food and good feelings. Pump heroin into their brains, and they'll behave a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qpJbFta7RwpHcFarc/can-we-make-peace-with-moral-indeterminacy |
# New Petrov Game Brainstorm
Big thanks to the LW team for putting together the Petrov Day experience! ([Setup](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019). [Follow up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019).)
I looked over the c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/guGdu2wKvbX4hAJwE/new-petrov-game-brainstorm |
# Long-Term Future Fund: August 2019 grant recommendations
_**Note**: The Q4 deadline for applications to the Long-Term Future Fund is Friday 11th October._ _[Apply here](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdtAM4WcsR6ul1kwxOEPeM2MoPyISC9zab5wreJr9Q09A8H-A/viewform)._
We opened up an application for grant reques... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YnHX9ZRHunoA9td6K/long-term-future-fund-august-2019-grant-recommendations |
# [Link] Tools for thought (Matuschak & Nielsen)
[https://numinous.productions/ttft](https://numinous.productions/ttft)
An excerpt:
> We're often asked: why don't you work on AGI or \[brain-computer interfaces (BCI)\] instead of tools for thought? Aren't those more important and more exciting? And for AGI, in pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fhiokiWr5vEy3HgRX/link-tools-for-thought-matuschak-and-nielsen |
# AI Alignment Open Thread October 2019
Continuing the experiment from August, let's try another open thread for AI Alignment discussion. The goal is to be a place where researchers and upcoming research can ask small questions they are confused about, share early stage ideas and have lower-key discussions. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFAavCTW56iTsYkvR/ai-alignment-open-thread-october-2019 |
# Debate on Instrumental Convergence between LeCun, Russell, Bengio, Zador, and More
_An_ _[actual debate](https://facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156248637927143&id=722677142)_ _about instrumental convergence, in a public space! Major respect to all involved, especially Yoshua Bengio for great facilitation._
_Fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WxW6Gc6f2z3mzmqKs/debate-on-instrumental-convergence-between-lecun-russell |
# Conscious Proprioception.
**Conscious Proprioception: Increased Awareness of your Sense of Position, Motion, Alignment & Balance.**
=========================================================================================================
After an introduction to the anatomy of [alignment and balance](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GNoSxcC9YrCesgpZz/conscious-proprioception |
# The AI is the model
> A Friendly AI is not a selfish AI constrained by a special extra conscience module that overrides the AI's natural impulses and tells it what to do. You just build the conscience, and that _is_ the AI.
Eliezer Yudkowsky, _[Ghosts in the Machine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cnYHFNBF3kZEyx2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HS2E8woaF5h5QSptP/the-ai-is-the-model |
# What are your strategies for avoiding micro-mistakes?
I've recently been spending more time doing things that involve algebra and/or symbol manipulation (after a while not doing these things by hand that often) and have noticed that small mistakes cost me a lot of time. Specifically, I can usually catch such mistake... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jRkkgszocHcsHfDAe/what-are-your-strategies-for-avoiding-micro-mistakes |
# 13 Causes of Bad Science (Novum Organum Book 1: 69-92)
**This is the sixth post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction).**
_We have used Francis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vTCzM8bTPk4ANXsY6/13-causes-of-bad-science-novum-organum-book-1-69-92 |
# Ideal Number of Parents
I'll often hear people say with varying levels of seriousness that the ideal number of parents to have is something large, like maybe five. Children, [especially infants](https://www.jefftk.com/p/baby-time-inequality), can be an enormous amount of work, which is certainly easier spread out am... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZRHLrw4S5P2NYcw3n/ideal-number-of-parents |
# Eight O'Clock is Relative
When Lily was little we used an [analog rotary timer outlet](https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B00P76URH8) to turn on a light so she would know when it was ok to get up. The goal wasn't to wake her, but to let her know when it was ok to come downstairs. This worked ok, but it wasn't very precise.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qhmiLZFuv2WCjzHvv/eight-o-clock-is-relative |
# Who lacks the qualia of consciousness?
Over on Facebook (I don't know if it's possible to link to a Facebook post, but h/t Alexander Kruel) and [Twitter](https://twitter.com/gwern/status/1180246754849181698?s=19&fbclid=IwAR2XowrlbemqMAtZUuS9KoDsIn0DlX5Ud9gmVWPv1yQLX7Rq1Kxgjc3e36Q), the subject of missing qualia has ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xrx9Qh6a5C3Z5urzk/who-lacks-the-qualia-of-consciousness |
# Advanced Dances
[BIDA](https://www.bidadance.org/) is hosting its first advanced dance [this afternoon](https://www.facebook.com/events/2394062140916848/), before our regular dance:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/2019-10-06--double-dance-big.png)
I've been thinkin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dQ9DYW9YDq8kQ4zo4/advanced-dances |
# What is category theory?
Category theory _is_ the mathematics of math—specifically, it's a mathematical theory of mathematical structure. It turns out that every kind of mathematics you're likely to encounter in a normal university education is just another kind of category—group theory falls under the category of g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KmLHN8wirYn88ioJj/what-is-category-theory |
# Introduction to Introduction to Category Theory
Category theory is so general in its application that it really feels like everyone, even non-mathematicians, ought to at least conceptually grok that it exists, like how everyone ought to understand the idea of the laws of physics even if they don't know what those la... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fW9n8bEuMpLwkxCx6/introduction-to-introduction-to-category-theory |
# Replace judges with Keynesian beauty contests?
The job of the judicial system is to interpret the law. It's valuable for society that the law is interpreted consistently--for example, so we can make legal agreements and trust that judges will enforce those agreements in a way that's similar to how they enforced suc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wzKNRaYeDZKD8hzsF/replace-judges-with-keynesian-beauty-contests |
# Hybrid Lottery Admission
Last year we organized a new contra dance weekend, [Beantown Stomp](https://www.beantownstomp.com/) ([retrospective](https://www.jefftk.com/p/beantown-stomp-retrospective)). It sold out, and some people were frustrated that they didn't hear about it before we went to a waitlist. Since we're ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9aD2m2pSGXKybvzfr/hybrid-lottery-admission |
# The Gears of Impact
 
. In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWO... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SLHQF25vRXoNEooSG/an-67-creating-environments-in-which-to-study-inner |
# [Link] Book Review: ‘The AI Does Not Hate You’ by Tom Chivers (Scott Aaronson)
Scott Aaronson uploaded a [review](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4361) about [The AI Does Not Hate You](https://www.amazon.com/Rationalists-Artificial-Intelligence-Geeks-World/dp/1474608779/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mfenA7o4B4dT73YRm/link-book-review-the-ai-does-not-hate-you-by-tom-chivers |
# The sentence structure of mathematics
"Alice pushes Bob."
"Cat drinks milk."
"Comment hurts feelings."
These are all different sentences that describe wildly different things. People are very different from cats, and cats are very different from comments. Bob, milk, and feelings don't have much to do with each ot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JWQExCTQJpgmNxPvx/the-sentence-structure-of-mathematics |
# Occam's Razor May Be Sufficient to Infer the Preferences of Irrational Agents: A reply to Armstrong & Mindermann
_\[Epistemic Status: My inside view feels confident, but I’ve only discussed this with one other person so far, so I won't be surprised if it turns out to be confused.\]_
[Armstrong and Mindermann (A&M) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pHWTNMESuAEjZg2Qn/occam-s-razor-may-be-sufficient-to-infer-the-preferences-of |
# Bets and updating
Suppose the US presidential election is tomorrow.
You currently assign a probability of 50% to each outcome. (We are ignoring the small possibility that neither of the main party candidates will win).
A man approaches you, and offers you a bet of \$10, at 2-1 odds. In other words, if candidate on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G7HgP9KTWAMSv6oEJ/bets-and-updating |
# AI Alignment Writing Day Roundup #2
Here are some of the posts from the AI Alignment Forum [writing day](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aJGXWHnYTsWwAiwf6/announcement-writing-day-today-thursday). Due to the participants writing 34 posts in less than 24 hours (!), I'm re-airing them to let people have a proper chanc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DG7asvufKgaqEknKd/ai-alignment-writing-day-roundup-2 |
# Formal Metaethics and Metasemantics for AI Alignment
**A Brief Introduction to MetaEthical.AI**
------------------------------------------
_tl;dr: AIXI for Friendliness_
\[Crossposted from my new [blog](https://medium.com/@june_ku/formal-metaethics-and-metasemantics-for-ai-alignment-2e72533cad6d).\]
**Abstrac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85vp2kgFZoycFqr5G/formal-metaethics-and-metasemantics-for-ai-alignment-1 |
# Realigning Housing Coalitions
There are currently two main coalitions in US housing politics in high cost-of-living areas:
* Developer / Pro-business / YIMBY: make it easier to build more housing. Allow higher densities, more subdivision, and smaller units. Lower affordable housing minimums, lower parking minimum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bgCmoEtNhyYDqaskZ/realigning-housing-coalitions |
# When is pair-programming superior to regular programming?
When doing software development there are many choices that can affect your productivity. There are choices about how a company works. One of those is doing pair-programming over doing solo-programming. We recently had a consultant at our company who claimed ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pJnBfEWGiq6R5mTom/when-is-pair-programming-superior-to-regular-programming |
# Artifact: What Went Wrong?
Previously: [Card Balance and Artifact](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/28/card-balance-and-artifact/), [Artifact Embraces Card Balance Changes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/12/26/artifact-embraces-card-balance-changes/), [Review: Artifact](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2018/11/22... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6gptwR8jBkzqhWaTY/artifact-what-went-wrong |
# What's the dream for giving natural language commands to AI?
**0**
I promised in a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvqGmLBCtvQxfMs9m/the-artificial-intentional-stance) that I would give a post-mortem for a scheme for learning the intentional stance from natural language. This is that post. But first... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bxxh9GbJ6WuW5Hmkj/what-s-the-dream-for-giving-natural-language-commands-to-ai |
# Characterizing Real-World Agents as a Research Meta-Strategy
Background
----------
Intuitively, the real world seems to contain agenty systems (e.g. humans), non-agenty systems (e.g. rocks), and ambiguous cases which display some agent-like behavior sometimes (bacteria, neural nets, financial markets, thermostats, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9pZtvjegYKBALFnLk/characterizing-real-world-agents-as-a-research-meta-strategy |
# Book summary: Unlocking the Emotional Brain
If the thesis in _[Unlocking the Emotional Brain](https://smile.amazon.com/Unlocking-Emotional-Brain-Eliminating-Reconsolidation/dp/0415897173/)_ (UtEB) is even half-right, it may be one of the most important books that I have read. Written by the psychotherapists Bruce Ec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9xyZBS3qzA8nFXNQ/book-summary-unlocking-the-emotional-brain |
# Misconceptions about continuous takeoff
There has been considerable debate over whether development in AI will experience a discontinuity, or whether it will follow a more continuous growth curve. Given the lack of consensus and the confusing, diverse terminology, it is natural to hypothesize that much of the debate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CjW4axQDqLd2oDCGG/misconceptions-about-continuous-takeoff |
# Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 1 - My journey
I've been working on [Premium Poker Tools](https://premiumpokertools.com) for over two years now. I'm at a point where things aren't looking so hot, and I need to sit down and do some hard thinking. What better way to do that then to write on LessWrong!
Backgr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGRj2PGiK5eawgQN2/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-1-my-journey |
# Categories: models of models
Let me clarify what I mean when I say that math consists of nouns and verbs. Think about elementary school mathematics like addition and subtraction. What you learn to do is take a bunch of nouns—1, 2, 3, etc.—and a bunch of verbs—addition, subtraction—and make sentences. “1 + 2 = 3.”
W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jPDSzqHJCz2drFKvA/categories-models-of-models |
# Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 2 - Deciding to call it quits
For the backstory, see [part one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGRj2PGiK5eawgQN2/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-1-my-journey).
* * *
There's a part of me that thinks that quitting should be an easy decision. A big part of me.
The w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QczDDjzveeYar85mS/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-2-deciding-to-call |
# Regularly Scheduled: Day-of Reminders
[Two years ago](https://www.jefftk.com/p/regularly-scheduled) I wrote [Regularly Scheduled](https://www.regularlyscheduled.com), a tool to make it easier for people to handle repeated events:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/reg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C6mwEaT7bJ2maCNgD/regularly-scheduled-day-of-reminders |
# On Collusion - Vitalik Buterin
> ...if there is a situation with some fixed pool of resources and some currently established mechanism for distributing those resources, and it’s unavoidably possible for 51% of the participants can conspire to seize control of the resources, no matter what the current configuration i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/inqX3W6A9G5qavDgS/on-collusion-vitalik-buterin |
# Minimization of prediction error as a foundation for human values in AI alignment
I've mentioned in [posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JYdPbGS9mpJn3SAyA/let-values-drift-1) [twice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pbFWf4tDKYW4X9D6X/connectome-specific-harmonic-waves-and-meditation) (and previously in several com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cu7yv4eM6dCeA67Af/minimization-of-prediction-error-as-a-foundation-for-human |
# Long Term Future Fund application is closing this Friday (October 11th)
Just a reminder that the Long Term Future Fund application is closing in two days. In past rounds we received 80% of our applications the day of the deadline, but I am not sure whether that is contingent on us reminding everyone that the applica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/raLu4Ar2EeaG5xZR4/long-term-future-fund-application-is-closing-this-friday |
# Examples of Categories
Before we go through any more conceptual talk, let's explore some examples of categories to get a better feel of what they are.
Categories do two things:
1) They function as _mathematical structures_ that capture our _intuition_ about how models of _cause-and-effect_ (composition) work _in g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B67mMciMDeiHxueki/examples-of-categories |
# Thoughts on "Human-Compatible"
> The purpose of this book is to explain why [superintelligence] might be the last event in human history and how to make sure that it is not... The book is intended for a general audience but will, I hope, be of value in convincing specialists in artificial intelligence to rethink the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FuGDYNvA6qh4qyFah/thoughts-on-human-compatible |
# CPH meetup 10/20/19
This is intended as a space for people curious about the world and critical of the methods of understanding it. It is primarily aimed at people interested in applying Bayesian Rationality(LessWrong, CFAR, etc.) to their critical methods but also welcomes Slate Star Codex readers, and others curio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/A7LAzFXD79pgFtsdA/cph-meetup-10-20-19 |
# The Baconian Method (Novum Organum Book 1: 93-107)
**This is the seventh post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction).**
In this section, Bacon l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ncXCwGdEXJmqwiFWd/the-baconian-method-novum-organum-book-1-93-107 |
# I would like to try double crux.
Hello,
I would like to try double crux [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-disagreement](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exa5kmvopeRyfJgCy/double-crux-a-strategy-for-resolving-disagreement) with someone. My statement A is "There i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJgHybFpNdW5rN7cb/i-would-like-to-try-double-crux |
# How feasible is long-range forecasting?
_Lukeprog posted this today on the blog at OpenPhil. I've quoted the opening section, and footnote 17 which has an interesting graph I haven't seen before._
* * *
How accurate do long-range (≥10yr) forecasts tend to be, and how much should we rely on them?
As an initial exp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5oPE22w3aEhh8hLcp/how-feasible-is-long-range-forecasting |
# Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 3 - What I've learned
Previous posts:
* [Part 1 - My journey](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGRj2PGiK5eawgQN2/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-1-my-journey)
* [Part 2 - Deciding to call it quits](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QczDDjzveeYar85mS/reflections-on-p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cDYPLe7ewed5mAnCa/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-3-what-i-ve-learned |
# Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 4 - Smaller things that I've learned
Previous posts:
* [Part 1 - My journey](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGRj2PGiK5eawgQN2/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-1-my-journey)
* [Part 2 - Deciding to call it quits](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QczDDjzveeYar85mS/r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uCMsfTJmMTEJ89W6L/reflections-on-premium-poker-tools-part-4-smaller-things |
# Sets and Functions
Sets and functions are two of the most basic ideas in mathematics, and we'll need to know what they are to discuss some things about categories rigorously. Normally you'd learn about sets and functions way before encountering category theory, but in the spirit of assuming as little math as possibl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4nqf7c4qnpa8mv7Yk/sets-and-functions |
# Rent Needs to Decrease
Here's part of a comment I got on my [housing coalitions post](https://www.jefftk.com/p/realigning-housing-coalitions):
> I consider it extremely unlikely you have found renters with the expectation of rent going down. Assuming they want to live in a well maintained building, I consider unlik... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwKLkjsiKca2eGuh6/rent-needs-to-decrease |
# Social Class
_Notes from the Salon_
ETA: This is a write-up of some interesting points raised at an in-person rationalist meetup on October 6th, 2019. It is not intended to be a comprehensive overview of the topic. It is conventional for attendees to do all the suggested readings before salon starts, so some parts ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/g/g4ToLYoGa5Di6Wo8x/p/MvJW2yeh4hpLFXwLp/ |
# A simple sketch of how realism became unpopular
\[Epistemic status: _Sharing current impressions in a quick, simplified way in case others have details to add or have a more illuminating account. Medium-confidence that this is one of the most important parts of the story._\]
Here's my current sense of how we en... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DSTuA9ohakD6k3drh/a-simple-sketch-of-how-realism-became-unpopular |
# Planned Power Outages
With the dubiously motivated PG&E blackouts in California there are [many stories](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-11/pge-power-outage-darkness-stress-debt-vulnerable) [about how](https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/I-m-overwhelmed-PG-E-power-outage-leaves-14505719.php)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSiPbEPcQaEAWf2KE/planned-power-outages |
# AI alignment landscape
Here ([link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1178&v=-vsYtevJ2bc)) is a talk I gave at EA Global 2019, where I describe how [intent alignment](https://ai-alignment.com/clarifying-ai-alignment-cec47cd69dd6) fits into the broader landscape of “making AI go well,” and how my work fits ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zQgqAc9nQETjFjawJ/ai-alignment-landscape |
# What's going on with "provability"?
Every so often I hear seemingly mathematical statements involving the concept of being _provable_. For example:
* I've seen Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem stated as "if a mathematical system is powerful enough to express arithmetic, then either it contains a contradiction or th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sNTExk6sPYkvNxi6k/what-s-going-on-with-provability |
# MA Price Accuracy Law
Massachusetts has an interesting law for grocery stores to make sure price scanners are configured correctly: if your item rings up for more than the price on the shelf you get one for free (or $10 off it's it's more than $10). Specifically:
> if there is a discrepancy between the advertised p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxYhddotZbsMkzNsb/ma-price-accuracy-law |
# Maybe Lying Doesn't Exist
In ["Against Lie Inflation"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/16/against-lie-inflation/), the immortal Scott Alexander argues that the word "lie" should be reserved for knowingly-made false statements, and not used in an expanded sense that includes unconscious motivated reasoning. Alexan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bSmgPNS6MTJsunTzS/maybe-lying-doesn-t-exist |
# [AN #68]: The attainable utility theory of impact
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC0... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HeuJZfexbTBRijTs2/an-68-the-attainable-utility-theory-of-impact |
# Schematic Thinking: heuristic generalization using Korzybski's method
_Epistemic status: exploration of some of the intuitions involved in discussions behind [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BL7QmtAgvkjMqKe29/metalignment-deconfusing-metaethics-for-ai-alignment-1) at MSFP. Could be considered part of an u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/753hN5xCvdcD9qRo5/schematic-thinking-heuristic-generalization-using-korzybski |
# Impact measurement and value-neutrality verification
Recently, I've been reading and enjoying Alex Turner's [Reframing Impact](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/7CdoznhJaLEKHwvJW) sequence, but I realized that I have some rather idiosyncratic views regarding impact measures that I haven't really written up much yet. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jGB7Pd5q8ivBor8Ee/impact-measurement-and-value-neutrality-verification-1 |
# Strong stances
**I. The question of confidence**
Should one hold strong opinions? Some say yes. Some say that while it’s hard to tell, it tentatively seems pretty bad (probably).
A quick review of purported or plausible pros:
1. **Strong opinions lend themselves to revision:**
1. **Nothing will surprise you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Bjn8nCcfCe2nr9jF/strong-stances |
# The Parable of Predict-O-Matic
I've been thinking more about partial agency. I want to expand on some issues brought up in the comments to my [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hdHto3uHejhY2F3Q/partial-agency), and on other complications which I've been thinking about. But for now, a more informal para... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwcyMEgLyd4C3Dern/the-parable-of-predict-o-matic |
# TAISU 2019 Field Report
Last summer I [delivered](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/axsizR4vEX8qtuLpR/hlai-2018-field-report) a "field report" after attending the Human Level AI multi-conference. In mid-August of this year I attended the Learning-by-doing AI Safety Workshop (LBDAISW? I'll just call it "the workshop" h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MmX2ZqET2QDYpSMDp/taisu-2019-field-report |
# Transportation Tracking
Several times lately I've seen people say it's not practical to continue with walking and public transit in the US once you have kids unless you live in Manhattan. I've also had people think that us not having a car means that we never use cars. Both of these aren't the case, and I thought it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tuNK3zLAvKmmJNfu8/transportation-tracking |
# Always Discard Fascist Policies
## Burden of proof
I enjoy the game Secret Hitler. If you're unfamilliar with the game, the rules
can be found here: https://secrethitler.com/assets/Secret_Hitler_Rules.pdf
In this game, like in many social deception games, players love to make claims
about what you should _always_ o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bXoaRShdqbf2P9Ma9/always-discard-fascist-policies |
# Gradient hacking
"Gradient hacking" is a term I've been using recently to describe the phenomenon wherein a [deceptively aligned](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB/p/zthDPAjh9w6Ytbeks) mesa-optimizer might be able to purposefully act in ways which cause gradient descent to update it in a particular ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXH4r6MmKPedk8rMA/gradient-hacking |
# Full toy model for preference learning
# 1. Toy model for greater insight
This post will present a simple agent with contradictory and [underdefined](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCg7NeKQ7MycXWpYd/our-values-are-underdefined-changeable-and-manipulable) "preferences", and will apply the procedure detailed [in thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hcrFxeYYfbFrkKQEJ/full-toy-model-for-preference-learning |
# Make more land
We used to make land. We built long wharves for docking ships, and then over time filled in the areas between them. Later we built up mudflats wholesale to make even larger areas. Here's a map of Boston showing how much of the land wasn't previously dry:
[ are a series in which I select claims from the first few chapters of a book and investigate them for accuracy, to determine if a book is worth my time. This month’s subject ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5ytHm6pAozanqbhYW/epistemic-spot-checks-the-fall-of-rome |
# A Money Dojo
Original post: [A money Dojo](http://bearlamp.com.au/a-money-dojo/)
First up though, some ontology to make it easier to talk about this – “concrete, subtle, causal”.
The concrete world is the world of atoms. It’s physical and literal. (sometimes called the gross world)
The subtle is the world tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6MTSZKcPHkGRYwjmE/a-money-dojo |
# The Dualist Predict-O-Matic ($100 prize)
*This is a response to Abram's [The Parable of Predict-O-Matic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwcyMEgLyd4C3Dern/the-parable-of-predict-o-matic), but you probably don't need to read Abram's post to understand mine. While writing this, I thought of a way in which I think thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RmPKdMqSr2xRwrqyE/the-dualist-predict-o-matic-usd100-prize |
#
The best of the www, in my opinion
Below I will present a (small but qualitative ) list of those that I think are some of the best sites/blog that a human being can find on the world wide web.
The main criterion I used to draw up the list was to consider how the websites promote the dissemination of knowledge amon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XyTZcxdgxFoq347bJ/the-best-of-the-www-in-my-opinion |
# Random Thoughts on Predict-O-Matic
I'm going to be a bit more explicit about some ideas that appeared in [The Parable of Predict-O-Matic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwcyMEgLyd4C3Dern/the-parable-of-predict-o-matic). (If you don't want spoilers, read it first. Probably you should read it first anyway.)
\[Note: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/25288usP5B5ytnzA4/random-thoughts-on-predict-o-matic |
# Reposting previously linked content on LW
This question might be a bit specific to me, but maybe it applies to others so I'll ask publicly so the answer becomes more visible to all.
Is there are a policy or what are your thoughts on posting content on LW that was previously the subject of a link post?
In my case m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTmCgDtecqXwShZ5G/reposting-previously-linked-content-on-lw |
# Reasons for Hope & Objection Preemption (Novum Organum Book 1: 108-130)
**This is the eighth post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction).**
_We ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3n6u9paGP4e3jMhf/reasons-for-hope-and-objection-preemption-novum-organum-book |
# Implementing an Idea-Management System
This post is for you if:
1. Projects that excite you are growing to be a burden on your to-do list
2. You have a nagging sense that you’re not making the most of the ideas you have every day
3. Your note- and idea-system has grown to be an unwieldy beast
Years ago, I ready... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BHp82PvqCDayFpefg/implementing-an-idea-management-system |
# Archiving Yahoo Groups
On December 14th Yahoo will [shut down Yahoo Groups](https://help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN31010.html). Since my communities have mostly moved away from @yahoogroups.com hosting, to Facebook, @googlegroups, and other places, the bit that hit me was that they are deleting all the mailing list archives.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YR4PsLavhd5Dx5L6v/archiving-yahoo-groups |
# Technical AGI safety research outside AI
I think there are many questions whose answers would be useful for technical AGI safety research, but which will probably require expertise outside AI to answer. In this post I list 30 of them, divided into four categories. Feel free to get in touch if you’d like to discuss t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xbsi4wbourPkb47x/technical-agi-safety-research-outside-ai |
# What's your big idea?
At any one time I usually have between 1 and 3 "big ideas" I'm working with. These are generally broad ideas about how some thing works with many implications for how the rest of the whole world works. Some big ideas I've grappled with over the years, in roughy historical order:
* evolution
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KbkkTbKdhdg5daZEo/what-s-your-big-idea |
# Polyamory is Rational(ist)
Using survey data to explore the connection between polyamory, Rationality, intuition, evolutionary psychology, weirdness, religion, utopianism, consequentialism, and San Francisco Bay.
I'm [linking](https://putanumonit.com/2019/10/16/polyamory-is-rational/) instead of cross-posting becau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pMGB8DPk2E6Qwicqu/polyamory-is-rational-ist |
# Why does the mind wander?
By [Joshua Shepherd](https://philpapers.org/s/Joshua%20Shepherd), in _[Neuroscience of Consciousness](https://philpapers.org/asearch.pl?pub=86167)_ (forthcoming)
I found this paper interesting. The paper is annoying trapped inside a Word document, which is about as bad as the standard PDF ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMZcMD37vbhtqCWNY/why-does-the-mind-wander |
# [AN #69] Stuart Russell's new book on why we need to replace the standard model of AI
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nd692YfFGfZDh9Mwz/an-69-stuart-russell-s-new-book-on-why-we-need-to-replace |
# Why Ranked Choice Voting Isn't Great
Several friends are collecting signatures to put [Instant-runoff Voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting), branded as Ranked Choice Voting, on the ballot in Massachusetts ( [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9LKecLdEz3kjEmtKY/why-ranked-choice-voting-isn-t-great |
# Algorithms of Deception!
I want you to imagine a world consisting of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables $X_i$, and two computer programs.
The first program is called Reporter. As input, it accepts a bunch of the random variables $X_i$. As output, it returns a list of sets whose e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fmA2GJwZzYtkrAKYJ/algorithms-of-deception |
# Defining Myopia
IID vs Myopia
=============
In [a comment to Partial Agency](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hdHto3uHejhY2F3Q/partial-agency#kkejCdMFEoD2T2874), Rohin summarized his understanding of the post. He used the iid assumption as a critical part of his story. Initially, I thought that this was a good desc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qpZTWb2wvgSt5WQ4H/defining-myopia |
# Invisible Choices, Made by Default
There are two popular language learning software platforms: Anki and Duolingo. Anki is hard, free and effective. Duolingo is easy, commercial and ineffective.
The number of Duolingo users far outstrips the number of Anki users. Duolingo has 8 million downloads on the Play Store. A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k6nncsXAZD3bK6fe3/invisible-choices-made-by-default |
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