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# Mediums Overpower Messages
I've observed that consuming certain kinds of media make me smarter and other kinds of media makes me dumber.
Makes me dumber:
- Videogames
- YouTube
- News
Makes me smarter:
- Books
- Audiobooks
- Direct messaging apps
By "smarter" I mean it holistically causes me to behave in a way th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koa48Qio5LP48xMM2/mediums-overpower-messages |
# The problem/solution matrix: Calculating the probability of AI safety "on the back of an envelope"
>If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics
\-- [Scott Alexander](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Tw5RqnEzqEtaoEkq/if-it-s-worth-doing-it-s-worth-doing-with-made-up-statistics)
My earlier post [Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/znt3p9AGQDbYGf9Sy/the-problem-solution-matrix-calculating-the-probability-of |
# Endogenous Epinephrine for Anaphylaxis?
*Content warning: discussion of allergy attacks.*
*Epistemic warning: I know very little and this is total speculation. Don't do anything in this post unless this becomes the recommended way of dealing with allergy attacks.*
Imagine you're walking in a remote area with someo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rdLbLJqjCHrKJHXiB/endogenous-epinephrine-for-anaphylaxis |
# We tend to forget complicated things
One consistent pattern I've noticed in studying math is that, if some material feels very difficult, then I might remember it in an upcoming exam, but I will almost certainly have forgotten most of it one year later. The success story behind permanent knowledge gain is almost alw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZgxxSjXDB8qsz4jKF/we-tend-to-forget-complicated-things |
# Healthy Competition
A few years ago, the rationalsphere was small, and it was hard to get funding to run even one organization. Spinning up a second one with the same focus area might have risked killing the first one.
By now, I think we have the capacity (financial, coordinational and human-talent-wise) that that'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jbka3c63xSxm9P2fk/healthy-competition |
# Where to absolutely start?
Hi there!
I'm a new member and now feeling giddy from the amount of contents presented here on the site. I've read those welcome and FAQ posts, they all point to the library's core reading as material for beginners. BUT... I've just finished the Preface post of R:A-Z, and from the author'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y4jdYBZtvN24LJ7oj/where-to-absolutely-start |
# All I know is Goodhart
I've done [some](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PADPJ3xac5ogjEGwA/defeating-goodhart-and-the-closest-unblocked-strategy) [work](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/urZzJPwHtjewdKKHc/using-expected-utility-for-good-hart) on Goodhart's law, and I've argued that we can make use of all our known unce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uL74oQv5PsnotGzt7/all-i-know-is-goodhart |
# Turning air into bread
*Originally posted on The Roots of Progress, August 12, 2017*
I recently finished [*The Alchemy of Air*](https://rootsofprogress.org/books/the-alchemy-of-air), by Thomas Hager. It's the story of the Haber-Bosch process, the lives of the men who created it, and its consequences for world agric... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GDT6tKH5ajphXHGny/turning-air-into-bread |
# Let People Move to Jobs
When I argue that we should [bring rents down](https://www.jefftk.com/p/rent-needs-to-decrease) by [building](https://www.jefftk.com/p/make-more-land) [more](https://www.jefftk.com/p/unrestricted-housing) [housing](https://www.jefftk.com/p/housing-without-street-parking), one kind of response... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pJ5rGQDEEF42D9xra/let-people-move-to-jobs |
# Testing the Efficacy of Disagreement Resolution Techniques (and a Proposal for Testing Double Crux)
_Introduction_
==============
I will describe a procedure for testing the efficacy of _disagreement resolution techniques_ (DRTs) together with methodologies for inducing their use (induction methods). DRTs are _stru... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mnszbzJ2XawR4wXJh/testing-the-efficacy-of-disagreement-resolution-techniques |
# Human-AI Collaboration
We’ve just released our paper on human-AI collaboration. The paper makes a straightforward-to-me point that self-play training is not going to work as well with humans in collaborative settings as in competitive settings. Basically, humans cause a distributional shift for the self-play agent. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dBMC63hjkc5wPqTC7/human-ai-collaboration |
# Deliberation as a method to find the "actual preferences" of humans
Some [recent discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nRAMpjnb6Z4Qv3imF/the-strategy-stealing-assumption#Fdy8Dpy6tZYn3xME4) about what Paul Christiano means by "short-term preferences" got me thinking more generally about deliberation as a method... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ebdf8GZxt3L9grwwN/deliberation-as-a-method-to-find-the-actual-preferences-of |
# What Comes After Epistemic Spot Checks?
When I read a non-fiction book, I want to know if it’s correct before I commit anything it says to memory. But if I already knew the truth status of all of its claims, I wouldn’t need to read it. [Epistemic Spot Checks](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/) are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XkXfXtJ3GNqkAfpJt/what-comes-after-epistemic-spot-checks |
# Why "Referer"?
When you click a link, by default your browser sends a request like:
GET /your-page HTTP/1.1
Host: your-site
Referer: https://other-site/with-url
\[other headers\]
It's telling the server what page it wants ( https://your-site/your-page) and it includes a Referer saying that you came fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C3WxJHPRERzJqxxeF/why-referer |
# [AN #70]: Agents that help humans who are still learning about their own preferences
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbW... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9mscdgJ7ao3vbbrjs/an-70-agents-that-help-humans-who-are-still-learning-about |
# What economic gains are there in life extension treatments?
To put it another way: does stopping or slowing aging save resources for society as a whole, compared to raising new humans to replace old ones?
Plausible economic gains from life extension:
* [Raising a human from birth to age 17 in the United States c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dt9nsMHsaSLm4qoEC/what-economic-gains-are-there-in-life-extension-treatments |
# Multi-belled Brass
Yesterday afternoon I got excited about a new design for a brass instrument. Conical bore instruments have the problem that you can't combine valves (or slides) with having the tubing consistently expand over the length of the instrument. The valves force you to have a cylindrical bore segment in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZiRZoxp8RAqq9mRH/multi-belled-brass |
# Nature's Hidden Processes and Structures (Novum Organum Book 2: 1-9)
**This is the ninth post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction). For the rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qPdF8t9oENf9xmi6u/nature-s-hidden-processes-and-structures-novum-organum-book |
# Iron: From mythical to mundane
> Metalworking is one of the oldest crafts, going back far beyond recorded history. But until a few thousand years ago, one of the most abundant metals—iron—was virtually unknown. The ancient Egyptians and Sumerians knew iron only from meteors, and considered it heavenly, a gift from t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bKunbaS9FmK6xGxju/iron-from-mythical-to-mundane |
# Effect heterogeneity and external validity in medicine
Our paper "Effect heterogeneity and variable selection for standardizing causal effects to a target population" has just been publised in the European Journal of Epidemiology at [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-019-00571-w](https://link.springer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wwbrvumMWhDfeo652/effect-heterogeneity-and-external-validity-in-medicine |
# Two explanations for variation in human abilities
In [My Childhood Role Model](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Jpchgy53D2gB5qdk/my-childhood-role-model), Eliezer Yudkowsky argues that people often think about intelligence like this, with village idiot and chimps on the left, and Einstein on the right.
: basics
_This is my first post here, cross-posted from_
_[https://longitudinal.blog/co2-series-part-1-review-of-basics/](https://longitudinal.blog/co2-series-part-1-review-of-basics/)_
_Posting was suggested by Vaniver, and the actual work of cross-posting was done by Benito._
_Com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nvrFBqyEpHeMk92dP/climate-technology-primer-1-3-basics |
# The Pit
If you brought a man with keen ears to the edge of the pit and dropped a quarter over exactly the right spot, you could count to eleven before he heard it hit the ground. If you next told the man that a sliver of sunlight was visible from t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dv9E65xWw7CsJNERz/the-pit |
# Jacy Reese (born Jacy Anthis)?
***Update 2020-05-08**: Jacy wrote to me to tell me that his full name is "Jacy Reese Anthis", and that he had been using "Jacy Reese" in his public writing. Since getting married he's switched to using his full name exclusively. I looked at Wikipedia, and I noticed that since I wrote ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3vSKTfkESn54Rqmsr/jacy-reese-born-jacy-anthis |
# The Missing Piece
In computer science, compiler is a program that translates things that programmers write, such as "if CloseButtonPressed then CloseApplication", to things that computers are able to understand and execute, such as "0001010111001010111011000111100010101011110".
When the first compiler was written, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvnNy4qznZLhbHAg7/the-missing-piece |
# What is the connection between these two definitions of ascription universality?
[Definition A:](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R5Euq7gZgobJi5S25/nuances-with-ascription-universality)
> a system is ascription universal if, relative to our current epistemic state, its explicit beliefs contain just as much informati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z9PknTFfZCvs2ZmiD/what-is-the-connection-between-these-two-definitions-of |
# Prediction markets for internet points?
Using real money in prediction markets is all-but-illegal, and dealing with payments is a pain. But using fake money in prediction markets seems tricky, because by default players have no skin in the game.
Here’s a simple proposal that I think might work reasonably well witho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3tZGxnYppMFwoWTTD/prediction-markets-for-internet-points |
# How to Improve Your Sleep
_This piece is cross-posted on my blog_ _[here](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2019/10/24/lu1xjfsg8i9rzkatmnqgh2r9ykb0r1)._
Do you feel sleepy enough during the day that it impairs your ability to function? Do you fall asleep involuntarily during the day? Do you feel tired enou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a6PMaSrfG9KYWL9tL/how-to-improve-your-sleep |
# Is requires ought
The thesis of this post is: "Each 'is' claim relies implicitly or explicitly on at least one 'ought' claim."
I will walk through a series of arguments that suggest that this claim is true, and then flesh out the picture towards the end.
(note: I discovered after writing this post that my argument... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Knc6wkW6yzD8o5L3c/is-requires-ought |
# Why are people so bad at dating?
I’m confused why people are so bad at dating. It seems to me like there are tons of $20 bills [lying on the ground](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/06/19/money-on-the-ground/) which no one picks up.
For example, we know that people [systematically choose](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/43vZKaMnPMfGKbh5X/why-are-people-so-bad-at-dating |
# Book Review: The AI Does Not Hate You
Book review: The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality
and the Race to Save the World, by [Tom
Chivers](https://tomchivers.com/).
This book is a sympathetic portrayal of the rationalist movement by a
quasi-outsider. It includes a well-organized explanatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ecwLD8oczXoXpZzks/book-review-the-ai-does-not-hate-you |
# Is it harder to become a MIRI mathematician in 2019 compared to in 2013?
Below, I make the distinction between "MIRI mathematician" and "MIRI engineer". (In my mind I tend to think of these as "researchers" and "engineers", respectively, but I think MIRI calls both of these classes of people "researchers" these days... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5syG88rmW5iD9kTM5/is-it-harder-to-become-a-miri-mathematician-in-2019-compared |
# [Site Update] Subscriptions, Bookmarks, & Pingbacks
We've just launched several new features that we've been working on for the past few weeks.
Subscriptions Overhaul
======================
The subscriptions system has been completely rebuilt to 1) support notifications on a much broader range of events, 2) make i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FvTc37vCGZQZdMWoz/site-update-subscriptions-bookmarks-and-pingbacks |
# How do you assess the quality / reliability of a scientific study?
When you look at a paper, what signs cause you to take it seriously? What signs cause you to discard the study as too poorly designed to be much evidence one way or the other?
I'm hoping to compile a repository of heuristics on study evaluation, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gxbGKa2AnQsrn3Gni/how-do-you-assess-the-quality-reliability-of-a-scientific |
# On Internal Family Systems and multi-agent minds: a reply to PJ Eby
Introduction
============
I recently had a conversation with [PJ Eby](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/pjeby) in the comments of my article “[Building up to an Internal Family Systems model](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5gfqG3Xcopscta3st/building... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bHBif2wJ2GSo69ZAr/on-internal-family-systems-and-multi-agent-minds-a-reply-to |
# Prospecting for Conceptual Holes
Imagine you wanted to explore the number line. You start at $1$ and then you explore $2$, $3$, $4$ and so on. No matter how long you do this you'll never discover $-1$, $\frac12$, $2\pi$, $∞$, $i$, or a single noncomputable number. That's because the most interesting numbers are prec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qs65BhXRQHDKHi7cz/prospecting-for-conceptual-holes |
# Theater Tickets, Sleeping Pills, and the Idiosyncrasies of Delegated Risk Management
Risk management is difficult, but even when it’s easy, companies and policymakers often do something other than optimal risk mitigation. This isn’t puzzling, once we realize that the incentives in place give the decisionmakers the l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k67BFXL9ftWi7bKGd/theater-tickets-sleeping-pills-and-the-idiosyncrasies-of |
# The Technique Taboo
For a strange few decades that may just be starting to end, if you went to art school you'd be ostracised by your teachers for trying to draw good representational art. "Representational art" means pictures that look like real things. Art school actively discouraged students from getting better a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kuXiSi52wvijw3ftR/the-technique-taboo |
# A new kind of Hermeneutics
> Hermeneutics \[həːmɪˈnjuːtɪks\]
> -_The branch of knowledge that deals with interpretation, especially of the Bible or literary texts_-
**Oxford dictionary**
> _The limits of my language mean the limits of my world._
**Ludwig Wittgenstein**
* * *
_Gottfried Wilhe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G6v66dkNXchejZqBJ/a-new-kind-of-hermeneutics |
# Rugby & Regression Towards the Mean
With the rugby world cup final approaching this Saturday I figured I'd publish this which I wrote towards the end of last year but never submitted.
Introduction
============
A couple of weeks ago England played New Zealand in Rugby Union. For those who don’t follow the sport New... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/joyLkEAdkKeSsm5BK/rugby-and-regression-towards-the-mean |
# [AN #71]: Avoiding reward tampering through current-RF optimization
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKBvMqs6t2RWAxWPc/an-71-avoiding-reward-tampering-through-current-rf |
# Halloween
[Leonard Cohen on his poetic voice](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/462001-as-i-grew-older-i-understood-that-instructions-came-with):
> “As I grew older, I understood that instructions came with this voice. What were these instructions? The instructions were never to lament casually. And if one is to exp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M5rTbuLgqfHxPtwgK/halloween |
# Rohin Shah on reasons for AI optimism
[](http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/rohin_shah.jpg)
Rohin Shah
I along with several AI Impacts researchers recently talked to talked to Rohin Shah about why he is relatively optimistic ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism |
# Is there a definitive intro to punishing non-punishers?
Hey LW. I've just written a draft of an article, that I'm trying to edit to link to useful prior notes on various concepts. One of those concepts is the idea that we evolved to "punish the non-punishers", in order to ensure the costs of social punishment are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GAgdHvzRDanQ5R7Qg/is-there-a-definitive-intro-to-punishing-non-punishers |
# Aella on Rationality and the Void
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/09/27/interview-with-aella-part-ii/).
This is a transcript of a discussion, my speech is in bold and Aella's is in normal text. This is the second part of the interview, part 1 covered Aella's life and background and [is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PkDn96XQZDHPLcreY/aella-on-rationality-and-the-void |
# Tables of Presence, Nearby Absence, & Degrees of Intensity (Novum Organum Book 2: 10-14)
**This is the tenth post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gv4us6Z8RuHHnYXHN/tables-of-presence-nearby-absence-and-degrees-of-intensity |
# The Simulation Epiphany Problem
_Epistemic status: AGI safety story followed by contradictory alternative conclusions. My thoughts about this problem are still in flux. I somewhat randomly decided write it up and post it on Halloween, because the story can be read as a story about a ghost._
My main question is: has... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rZo6xuuo8uGAxiXMg/the-simulation-epiphany-problem |
# Doing things in a populated world
The world has lots of people and things in it. And they are organized in such a mishmash that changing a thing will often make large numbers of people better off or worse off. And for a big thing—even a very good big thing—the number who are worse off is very unlikely to be zero.
T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwjWAeCakixudFpf4/doing-things-in-a-populated-world |
# Shared Cache is Going Away
Browsers historically have had a single HTTP Cache. This meant that if www.a.example and www.b.example both used cdn.example/jquery-1.2.1.js then JQuery would only be downloaded once. Since it's the same resource regardless of which site initiates the download, a single shared cache is mor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HALR7bAiNf7bgNetE/shared-cache-is-going-away |
# The Curse Of The Counterfactual
### The Introduction
The Curse of the Counterfactual is a side-effect of the way our brains process [is-ought distinctions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SCEi8uxS25bCDzHRj/mental-representation-and-the-is-ought-distinction). It causes our brains to compare our past, present, and f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4zGWYzh6ZiG85b2z/the-curse-of-the-counterfactual |
# Chris Olah’s views on AGI safety
_Note: I am not Chris Olah. This post was the result of lots of back-and-forth with Chris, but everything here is my interpretation of what Chris believes, not necessarily what he actually believes. Chris also wanted me to emphasize that his thinking is informed by all of his colleag... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2i9dQQK3gETCyqh2/chris-olah-s-views-on-agi-safety |
# AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress
DeepMind [released their AlphaStar paper a few days ago](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning), having reached Grandmaster level at the partial-information real-time strategy ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SvhzEQkwFGNTy6CsN/alphastar-impressive-for-rl-progress-not-for-agi-progress |
# What are human values? - Thoughts and challenges
Epistemic Status: Rough outline of ideas
The first step in achieving a goal is knowing what you want. But in order to answer this question, we first need to know what it means to want. Do we care more about your desires at the point of the decision or at the point of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZNQ7cu5MpBrh8Y2Qp/what-are-human-values-thoughts-and-challenges |
# Speaking up publicly is heroic
*Content warning: discussion of abuse.*
I was recently in a discussion of safety, "me too", and responding to harmful behavior where someone wrote, paraphrased:
> Discussing things like this, publicly and in writing, is dangerous. Posting negative things about people could get you su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZHsFC8kjGvbYKaJiD/speaking-up-publicly-is-heroic |
# Economics and Evolutionary Psychology
This article provides game theoretic reasons for acting in ways that may seem naive from the standard economic point of view.
Key quotes from the article:
"As a member of a hunter-gatherer band, you engage in a variety of transactions with your fellows, trading goods and servi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d8vdrvZDYLDiRYfjE/economics-and-evolutionary-psychology |
# Open & Welcome Thread - November 2019
* If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
* You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/).
* And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself.
* Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RasFpce3fNZ8xp2T4/open-and-welcome-thread-november-2019 |
# “embedded self-justification,” or something like that
**preamble**
Sometimes I wonder what the MIRI-type crowd thinks about some issue related to their interests. So I go to alignmentforum.org, and quickly get in over my head, lost in a labyrinth of issues I only half understand.
I can never tell whether they’ve ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kczouh3rvEoxJWFh5/embedded-self-justification-or-something-like-that |
# [Math] Proofs vs. documentation vs. "it's trivial"
In my abstract algebra and real analysis classes, my TAs say that I frequently come up with "technically right" solutions. They don't mean in the Futurama sense; "technically right" here is a little looser - I did some trick that wasn't really expected, or a bit out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HZ567R3e96ZK5DCCf/math-proofs-vs-documentation-vs-it-s-trivial |
# But exactly how complex and fragile?
*This is a post about my own confusions. It seems likely that other people have discussed these issues at length somewhere, and that I am not up with current thoughts on them, because I don’t keep good track of even everything great that everyone writes. I welcome anyone kindly d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xzFQp7bmkoKfnae9R/but-exactly-how-complex-and-fragile |
# Skill and leverage
Sometimes I hear people say ‘how can make a big difference to the world, when I can’t make a big difference to that pile of dishes in my sock drawer?’ How can I improve the sustainability of world energy usage when I can’t improve the sustainability of my own Minecraft usage? The basic thought is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pmifMjht6Y4dBPhqF/skill-and-leverage |
# Picture Frames, Window Frames and Frameworks
Some commenters on [Noticing Frames](http://localhost:3000/posts/f886riNJcArmpFahm/noticing-frame-differences) were confused about what I actually meant by "frame." I defined it briefly as "different ways of seeing, thinking and communicating", but this was a bit vague.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhSjufKtnPRWqW52h/picture-frames-window-frames-and-frameworks-1 |
# Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity
[Ole Peters](https://ergodicityeconomics.com/) claims that the standard expected utility toolbox for evaluating wagers is a flawed basis for rational decisionmaking. In particular, it commonly fails to take into account that an investor/bettor taking a series of repeated bets i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gptXmhJxFiEwuPN98/meetup-notes-ole-peters-on-ergodicity |
# Ways that China is surpassing the US
[Edit: Changed the post title from the original article title to something more meaningful.]
I came across this article today, and I have to agree with it strongly based on my own recent trip to China. The update it triggered for me is the realization that China is genuinely d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JMoASne9ccMBxntaX/ways-that-china-is-surpassing-the-us |
# Book Review: Man's Search for Meaning by Victor Frankel
(Oops, I meant this to be a shortform)
"Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way"
“He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xh3z6St5dCt5frRAF/book-review-man-s-search-for-meaning-by-victor-frankel |
# Elon Musk is wrong: Robotaxis are stupid. We need standardized rented autonomous tugs to move customized owned unpowered wagons.
Sorry for the flashy headline, but I genuinely feel this might be the best idea I ever had.
After the invention of the horseless carriage, it supposedly took people years to realize that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RegdNi2yMHjcywAAx/elon-musk-is-wrong-robotaxis-are-stupid-we-need-standardized |
# Politics is work and work needs breaks
_A post written a few years ago, posting now during a time of irrelevance (as far as I know with my limited attention on politics or social media) so as not to be accidentally taking a side in any specific political debates._
\*\*\*
> **Alexandra **What has happened is shocki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BsHsHuKouQYRx2CJB/politics-is-work-and-work-needs-breaks |
# Will transparency help catch deception? Perhaps not
In the last few months, some AI safety researchers have signaled what Wei Dai [called](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pFAavCTW56iTsYkvR/ai-alignment-open-thread-october-2019#9sy6DdZx7tSSFYXcg) a "wave of optimism" for using transparency tools to catch decepti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J9D6Bi3eFDDhCaovi/will-transparency-help-catch-deception-perhaps-not |
# More variations on pseudo-alignment
In "[Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820)," we talked about a variety of different forms of pseudo-alignment—that is, ways in which a trained model's objective (its _mesa-objective_) can be misaligned off-distribution with the loss function it was tra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iydwbZhATANhjoGP7/more-variations-on-pseudo-alignment |
# Total horse takeover
I hear a lot of talk of ‘taking over the world’. What is it to take over the world? Have I done it if I am king of the world? Have I done it if I burn the world? Have humans or the printing press or Google or the idea of ‘currency’ done it?
Let’s start with something more tractable, and be cle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wa2hASzbxyvutHJff/total-horse-takeover |
# What AI safety problems need solving for safe AI research assistants?
In his [AI Safety “Success Stories”](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/bnY3L48TtDrKTzGRb/ai-safety-success-stories) post, Wei Dai writes:
>[This] comparison table makes Research Assistant seem a particularly attractive scenario to aim for, as ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oDyCKT2admtoQeiTk/what-ai-safety-problems-need-solving-for-safe-ai-research |
# Book Review: Design Principles of Biological Circuits
I remember seeing a talk by a synthetic biologist, almost a decade ago. The biologist used a genetic algorithm to evolve an electronic circuit, something like this:
:
> *Normative reductioni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MoD5a5qr6rhD4R24J/normative-reductionism |
# Judgment, Punishment, and the Information-Suppression Field
There are a lot of senses in which I or the people around me can be considered unsafe. Many-tonned hunks of metal whiz by us on the same streets we have to navigate on foot to buy our groceries. The social infrastructure by which we have access to clean dri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LfPYqcECjz9hJmdNE/judgment-punishment-and-the-information-suppression-field |
# [AN #72]: Alignment, robustness, methodology, and system building as research priorities for AI safety
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hPJMum5CNH5MKe27C/an-72-alignment-robustness-methodology-and-system-building |
# AI Alignment Research Overview (by Jacob Steinhardt)
_I'm really excited to see someone outline all the work they think needs solving in AI alignment - to describe what the problem looks like, what a solution looks like, and what work has been done so far. Especially from Jacob, who is a coauthor of the Concrete Pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7GEviErBXcjJsbSeD/ai-alignment-research-overview-by-jacob-steinhardt |
# A mechanistic model of meditation
Meditation has been claimed to have all kinds of transformative effects on the psyche, such as improving concentration ability, healing trauma, [cleaning up delusions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QqSNFcGSZdnARx56E/meditation-insight-and-rationality-part-1-of-3), allowing one to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WYmmC3W6ZNhEgAmWG/a-mechanistic-model-of-meditation |
# Personal quality experimentation
Different people seem to have different strategies, which they use systematically across different parts of their lives, and that we recognize and talk about. For instance people vary on:
* Spontaneity
* Inclination toward explicit calculations
* Tendency to go meta
* Skepti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/94YMDgQ5n5b4LdSLB/personal-quality-experimentation |
# Building Intuitions On Non-Empirical Arguments In Science
**I.**
Aeon: [Post-Empirical Science Is An Oxymoron And It is Dangerous](https://aeon.co/essays/post-empirical-science-is-an-oxymoron-and-it-is-dangerous):
> There is no agreed criterion to distinguish science from pseudoscience, or just plain ordinary bull... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tSemJckYr29Gnxod2/building-intuitions-on-non-empirical-arguments-in-science |
# Uber Self-Driving Crash
*Content warning: discussion of death*
A year and a half ago an Uber self-driving car hit and killed Elaine Herzberg. I [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/933323644812) at the time:
> The dashcam video from the Uber crash has been released. It's really bad. The pedestrian is slow... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tTg4bn5rxHYqQJXhD/uber-self-driving-crash |
# Literature on memetics?
In certain circles, it's common to talk about memes as entities, in a metaphorical and handwaving way. But it seems to me that thinking rigorously and precisely about memes in the framework of "memes::genes, memeplexes::infectious agents, minds::hosts" actually has a lot of explanatory and pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pEz9hbusMRP4gpAow/literature-on-memetics |
# Self policing for self doubt
Sometimes it seems consequentially correct to do things that would also be good for you, if you were selfish. For instance, to save your money instead of giving it away this year, or to get yourself a really nice house that you expect will pay off pragmatically while also being delightfu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ozLbqKAWBwY4Ebk7K/self-policing-for-self-doubt |
# New evidence on popular perception of "AI" risk
The Mozilla Foundation recently conducted a survey about AI perception. I participated after receiving an email invitation; I don't know if they recruited elsewhere. They just released a writeup of the results today, which can be found [here](https://foundation.mozilla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jsooAMxvcW9F52sJM/new-evidence-on-popular-perception-of-ai-risk |
# [Team Update] Why we spent Q3 optimizing for karma
In Q3 of 2019, the LessWrong team picked the growth of a single metric as our only goal. For the duration of this quarter, the overwhelming consideration in our decision-making what would most increase the target metric.
Why target a simple, imperfect metric?
=====... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WnB6whsARH6NuJDKx/team-update-why-we-spent-q3-optimizing-for-karma |
# LW Team Updates - November 2019 (Subscriptions & More)
This is the [once-monthly updates post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTpv3mjKqFot9pxT3) for LessWrong team activities and announcements.
Summary
-------
This month we launched 1) a complete subscriptions overhaul, 2) bookmarks, 3) pingbacks (experimental opt-i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mWKzAitSQboSk4Ye4/lw-team-updates-november-2019-subscriptions-and-more |
# The Credit Assignment Problem
*This post is eventually about* [*partial agency*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/HeYtBkNbEe7wpjc6X)*. However, it's been a somewhat tricky point for me to convey; I take the long route. **Epistemic status:** slightly crazy.*
* * *
I've occasionally said "Everything boils down to credit ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ajcq9xWi2fmgn8RBJ/the-credit-assignment-problem |
# A First Sketch of the Nature of Heat (Novum Organum Book 2: 15-25)
**This is the eleventh post in the** **[Novum Organum sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GTEay24Lxm3xoE4hy). For context, see** **[the sequence introduction](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/te8gXf9fXb7JWbJ9b/novum-organum-introduction). For the re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tQssrKo4pEuMbWTDJ/a-first-sketch-of-the-nature-of-heat-novum-organum-book-2-15 |
# Catalyst: a collaborative biosecurity summit
Applications for [Catalyst](https://catalystbiosummit.com/), a collaborative biosecurity summit, are [now open](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfxMZ5qy0QcFYsV2ZZmglngk9znXhEEgq2Xt4-TmboQBzEm2A/viewform).
On February 22, 2020, at [The Laundry](http://thelaundrys... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/YKWvCqFJKthxbDcGQ/catalyst-a-collaborative-biosecurity-summit |
# For the metaphors
I make use of a lot of analogies, for instance ‘like dancing’ and ‘the ice skating thing’ are particular phenomena I often think about, and I get value from thinking about meta-ethics as if it were romance, or saving the world as if it were a party. I wonder if providing a variety of concrete exper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XpTBjk3PMvztFz8bC/for-the-metaphors |
# Pricing externalities is not necessarily economically efficient
> \[A\]s long as externalities exist and are not internalized via Pigouvian taxes, the result is inefficient. The inefficiency is eliminated by charging the polluter an emission fee equal to the damage done by his pollution. In some real world cases it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dkcoq7wg3SpCHhvEv/pricing-externalities-is-not-necessarily-economically |
# Neural nets as a model for how humans make and understand visual art
This is a new paper relating experimental results in deep learning to human psychology and cognitive science. I'm excited to get feedback and comments. I've included some excerpts below.
**Abstract**
------------
This paper is about the cogni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sg8YjyDBKAF5s2Bgh/neural-nets-as-a-model-for-how-humans-make-and-understand |
# Goal-thinking vs desire-thinking
[Adapted from an [old post](https://sniffnoy.dreamwidth.org/539557.html) on my personal blog]
There's a lot of long-running arguments on the internet that basically consist of people arguing past each other due to differing basic assumptions that they don't know how to make explicit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWJ5kzeqvx4kvB527/goal-thinking-vs-desire-thinking |
# Self-Keeping Secrets
> A magician never reveals his secrets.
The secret behind nearly every magic trick ever performed is available at your local library. Magicial secrets stay secret because they're inconsequential. Unless you are a magician or aspire to become one, you have better things to learn than magic trick... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrPB9a9MP9aQMXDwT/self-keeping-secrets |
# Ethical experimentation
I [suggested](https://meteuphoric.com/2019/11/06/personal-quality-experimentation/) experimenting with different settings on personal characteristics that aren’t obviously good or bad. For instance, trying out being more or less perfectionistic for a day.
A particular variety of this that in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FsMFSwbCCjrgwL2G5/ethical-experimentation |
# Indescribable
Some things can be described only via experience.
- Direct sensory experience (such as the color red)
- Foreign untranslatable words and phrases
- [Rasas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasa_(aesthetics))
- Certain meditative states (such as *kenshō* and *satori*)
Other things cannot be precisely desc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dBh2CdaiyG6oCLDMA/indescribable |
# Experiments and Consent
One of the responses to my [Uber self-driving car post](https://www.jefftk.com/p/uber-self-driving-crash) was objecting to Uber experimenting on public roads:
> Self-driving research as practiced across the industry is in violation of basic research ethics. They should not be allowed to toss... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/894W89bH5yTnj45Kb/experiments-and-consent |
# Epistemic Spot Check: Unconditional Parenting
Epistemic spot checks started as a process in which I investigate a few of a book’s claims to see if it is trustworthy before continuing to read it. This had a number of problems, such as emphasizing a trust/don’t trust binary over model building, and emphasizing provabi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PtcPKkxkJLu4QRTfY/epistemic-spot-check-unconditional-parenting |
# Pieces of time
My friend used to have two ‘days’ each day, with a nap between—in the afternoon, he would get up and plan his day with optimism, whatever happened a few hours before washed away. Another friend recently suggested to me thinking of the whole of your life as one long day, with death on the agenda very l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BuqaN3T6gwcj7bhrb/pieces-of-time |
# Ban the London Mulligan
Previously: [On The London Mulligan](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/03/05/on-the-london-mulligan/)
Oko, Thief of Crowns is a highly messed up Magic card and needs to be banned in Standard. On that we can all agree. Throne of Eldraine contains many other messed up Magic cards. Some of them... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B5ugqv7KD5azMiGix/ban-the-london-mulligan |
# Operationalizing Newcomb's Problem
The standard formulation of Newcomb's problem has always bothered me, because it seemed like a weird hypothetical designed to make people give the wrong answer. When I first saw it, my immediate response was that I would two-box, because really, I just don't believe in this "perfec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X6f3KGYgnXxCHAnAq/operationalizing-newcomb-s-problem |
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