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# College advice for people who are exactly like me
It’s college decision season! To celebrate, I’ve been thinking about what I would have told myself in 2011 when I was deciding where to attend. Here’s a stitching-together of several emails I sent to friends who asked for college advice, plus a few additional thought... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttjebJSR7HsLDbqky/college-advice-for-people-who-are-exactly-like-me |
# Are there any naturally occurring heat pumps?
By that I mean are there any natural phenomena that use a low entropy energy source to move heat against a temperature gradient. I know that there are a lot of things that can be interpreted as heat engines, like hurricanes, but I wanted to know if the opposite also hap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DhuosSmoE2MHQqNSR/are-there-any-naturally-occurring-heat-pumps |
# In my culture: the responsibilities of open source maintainers
If you maintain an open source project, what responsibilities do you have towards your users? Some recent drama (that I won't link to) reminded me that there are large differences in how people answer that question.
(In the drama in question, this wasn'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/agHgwj3En5p6KHzz7/in-my-culture-the-responsibilities-of-open-source |
# The Typing Game
The kids and I play a typing game. I'll be sitting [on the couch](https://www.jefftk.com/p/folding-couch-monitor) with my laptop, and one of them will come over and ask to play. We'll load up [jefftk.com/speak](https://www.jefftk.com/speak):
[](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ccWk8BjGWfNZoqYGe/the-typing-game |
# "How conservative" should the partial maximisers be?
Due to the problem of building a [strong $V$-enhancer when we want a $U$-enhancer](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodhart-taxonomy) - and the [great difficulty in defining $U$](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ARaTpNX62uaL86j6/the-hidden-comple... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jRHLCyRKsQv5u2Lph/how-conservative-should-the-partial-maximisers-be |
# Reflections on Arguing about Politics
Content Note: I've kept things abstract, but this post may still put frustrating politics on your mind.
I have strong political disagreements with a close friend of mine. We both care a lot about certain policies and really want to change the other’s mind, but whenever we try, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8P2zHk33ctHWgsu9/reflections-on-arguing-about-politics |
# Where should LessWrong go on COVID?
About 6 weeks ago the LW team chose to go really hard on COVID-19 (including contracting with me), for reasons [discussed here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J8JvZxkABWwdXSH9d/is-the-coronavirus-the-most-important-thing-to-be-focusing?commentId=okrSYXz6KsrMAw5rL). The time for t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nhrhZDytktXvwwCdj/where-should-lesswrong-go-on-covid |
# The Samurai and the Daimyo: A Useful Dynamic?
The post [Slack Club](https://www.thelastrationalist.com/slack-club.html) by The Last Rationalist describes a problem in the rationalist community where there is an overabundance of Ender Wiggins: people trying to be clever as a way of avoiding having to do work. HPMOR ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AyAmGx7K8eDoz9E4C/the-samurai-and-the-daimyo-a-useful-dynamic |
# Coronavirus: Justified Key Insights Thread
This is a thread to list important insights and key open questions about the coronavirus and the coronavirus response. The inspiration for this thread is Eliezer's post below.
I'd like this thread to be a source of claims and ideas that are self-contained and well-explaine... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nRX7uwT2wNvvmd2Yd/coronavirus-justified-key-insights-thread |
# The Unilateralist’s “Curse” Is Mostly Good
People around here sometimes reference the “Unilateralist’s Curse”, especially when they want to keep someone else from doing something that might cause harm. Briefly, the idea is that “unilateral” actions taken without the consent of society at large are especially likely ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/amAxFbmvFrdSLiF5F/the-unilateralist-s-curse-is-mostly-good |
# Discontinuous progress in history: an update
I. The search for discontinuities
---------------------------------
We’ve been looking for historic cases of discontinuously fast technological progress, to help with reasoning about the [likelihood](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CeZXDmp8Z363XaM6b/discontinuous-progress-in-history-an-update |
# Mathematical Intuitionism and the Flow of Time
_Prompted by this article from [Quanta magazine](https://www.quantamagazine.org/does-time-really-flow-new-clues-come-from-a-century-old-approach-to-math-20200407/) about physicist Nicolas Gisin's recent work on intuitionism and the flow of time, I have done my best to e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eNnr4JwEDNux63oXm/mathematical-intuitionism-and-the-flow-of-time |
# The World According to Dominic Cummings
Like him or loath him, Dominic Cummings is now the most politically successful rationalist-adjacent figure. For this reason, it seems like our community _ought_ to try to understand him to see what we can learn. I'm sure there are people who have read more of his content than ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZwphJaoKSsGtYhhNy/the-world-according-to-dominic-cummings |
# Scraping websites currently free due to coronavirus
Some sites are free due to the coronavirus and we should scrape them. Please list any temporarily-free websites you know of, such as [https://www.uptodate.com/](https://www.uptodate.com/)
To download sites I recommend [https://github.com/ArchiveTeam/grab-site](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ChvEz5KjGzH5Qof3Q/scraping-websites-currently-free-due-to-coronavirus |
# Why don't we tape surgical masks to the face to seal them airtight?
As far as I understand the prime advantage of surgical masks over N95 masks lies in the N95 masks being able to seal and filter all of the air while the surgical masks allow air to pass at their sides.
Given that there are many situations where peo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i86x5vjLZ9jZRsfXi/why-don-t-we-tape-surgical-masks-to-the-face-to-seal-them |
# One Hundred Billion Children’s Sky
This is the first post of my '[Death](https://hivewired.wordpress.com/the-death-series/)' series of essays. I wrote all the current essays in the Death series before I started posting on LW regularly, but I think it is probably one of the more important things I've created and thu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/66FxgjrJ9EDskhDP4/one-hundred-billion-children-s-sky |
# Is this viable physics?
This [beautiful epic grandiose... thing](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/?fbclid=IwAR1n4lMomBpqNPO8PzrHp_ktAs6JAq74W30NQyEkHzUfHqUpbBuiOhbf5Io) seems pretty impressive to me. It seems like someone to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gXL6N4rgyKQyfSJqN/is-this-viable-physics |
# Popular papers to be scrutinized?
Inspired by Alexey Guzey's [criticism](http://[https://guzey.com/books/why-we-sleep/]) of Matthew Walker's Why We Sleep, as well as the SSC [criticisms](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/02/27/book-review-the-seven-principles-for-making-marriage-work/) of The Seven Principles of Marri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uJDjyKP8EoBdFvJiX/popular-papers-to-be-scrutinized |
# Far-Ultraviolet Light in Public Spaces to Fight Pandemic is a Good Idea but Premature
Also [posted](http://cyberneticpsalms.com/index.php/2020/04/14/far-ultraviolet-light-in-public-spaces-to-fight-pandemic-is-a-good-idea-but-premature/) on my personal blog.
Tl;dr: Far-ultraviolet light has potential as a human-safe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3yCcdg7DQQnfqZoax/far-ultraviolet-light-in-public-spaces-to-fight-pandemic-is |
# Hammer and Mask -
Wide spread use of reusable particle filtering masks as a SARS-CoV-2 eradication strategy
by Marcel Müller (M.Sc. Biological Sciences)
Contact: [marcel_mueller@mail.de](https://www.lesswrong.com/marcel_mueller@mail.de)
Epistemic Status: I am not a virologist and this is not medical advice. That s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yKYg6D7HNxLuJDcLS/hammer-and-mask-wide-spread-use-of-reusable-particle |
# The one where Quirrell is an egg
Egg-based parody of HPMOR on r/HPMOR. I don't know why this exists. Spoilers, you have been warned.
How to describe it? It's some combination of the following two quotes.
> “The observational study is taller than a dozen men! It reaches journalists so quickly that it can melt commo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MNfrvbhi3286GFQMz/the-one-where-quirrell-is-an-egg |
# The Archetypal Rational and Post-Rational
There's been a lot of discussion about the difference between rationality and post-rationality. Gordon Worley sees the difference being that post-rationality is based upon [epistemic circularity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5LP6Jc8ztwcyb296X/outline-of-metarationality-or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qgJfyAbzwnWt4a7Go/the-archetypal-rational-and-post-rational |
# [AN #95]: A framework for thinking about how to make AI go well
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this sprea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9et86yPRk6RinJNt3/an-95-a-framework-for-thinking-about-how-to-make-ai-go-well |
# Probabilistic Blue-Eyed Islanders
A puzzle: what happens in the [blue-eyed islanders puzzle](https://xkcd.com/blue_eyes.html) if we allow a small probability p for each each person to make a mistake each night? Assume that the probability of a mistake is the same for each and is common knowledge, the islanders are a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4JCZBTJGN2mtm9FAm/probabilistic-blue-eyed-islanders |
# Noise Simplifies
[They say that](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect) the flap of a butterfly’s wings can change the course of a hurricane. Sadly, this does not give us an effective strategy for controlling hurricane trajectories - if a flap of my butterfly’s wings can change the hurricane’s course, then ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zeGHRqNQc8FZR79a3/noise-simplifies |
# AI Alignment Podcast: An Overview of Technical AI Alignment in 2018 and 2019 with Buck Shlegeris and Rohin Shah
Just a year ago we released a two part episode titled [An Overview of Technical AI Alignment with Rohin Shah](https://futureoflife.org/2019/04/11/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-with-rohin-shah-part-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6skeZgctugzBBEBw3/ai-alignment-podcast-an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment |
# Brief Response to Suspended Reason on Parallels Between Skyrms on Signaling and Yudkowsky on Language and Evidence
(This is the continuation of [a Twitter conversation](https://twitter.com/suspendedreason/status/1250556960841359360), hosted as a _Less Wrong_ post because _Less Wrong_ lets me post more than 280 chara... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3HbbKyudvzCi2DKe6/brief-response-to-suspended-reason-on-parallels-between |
# Deminatalist Total Utilitarianism
**TLDR**: I propose a system of [population ethics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_ethics) that arguably solves all major paradoxes, and formalizes some intuitions that prior systems have not. AFAIK this is original but I'm not an expert so maybe it's not.
*This idea was ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QkaudDd4KiJtbM2t9/deminatalist-total-utilitarianism |
# Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
Epistemic Status: Confident I have useful things to say, but apologies for the long post because I don’t think it’s worth my time to make it shorter. Better to get thoughts down for those who want to read them.
[Scott Alexander’s latest post](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BthNiWJDagLuf2LN2/evaluating-predictions-in-hindsight |
# Treatments correlated with harm
There's a billion different ways studies can go wrong through failure of statistics to correctly capture reality.
One very specific one is: your successful treatments will often look like they're making things worse.
This is merely a special case of confounding, but it comes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FrQMQGdPMWzspM3ue/treatments-correlated-with-harm |
# Integrating Hidden Variables Improves Approximation
Fun fact: the KL divergence of distribution P\[X\] from distribution Q\[X\] [is convex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kullback%E2%80%93Leibler_divergence#Properties) in the pair P,Q. Writing it out: DKL(λP1\[X\]+(1−λ)P2\[X\]||λQ1\[X\]+(1−λ)Q2\[X\])≤λDKL(P1\[X\]||Q... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4vrL94CqXuyHQMhqo/integrating-hidden-variables-improves-approximation |
# Two-player Catan
Here's a way to play Settlers of Catan with two players that [David](http://www.davidchudzicki.com/) and I worked out this weekend. We've only played one game with it so far, and didn't think very hard about tradeoffs, so there are probably better ways to do it.
* Set up the board as normal.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iev4F4d4eCNDZDbp/two-player-catan |
# How superforecasting could be manipulated
**Introduction**
What if Philip Tetlock wanted to game his own superforecasting system? He runs his own [consulting firm](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The information he's selling is not available to the public. How would he do it in a way that isn't violating any o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3PWusu6j73J4vNJY5/how-superforecasting-could-be-manipulated |
# How much motivation do you derive from curiosity alone in your work/research?
A [recent discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tTD8fbctGhH26Jahp/curiosity-a-greedy-feeling) of curiosity prompted me to start wondering about the importance of curiosity as a factor in research. Most people seem to agree that curio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s22eDTyzXveCLoXrQ/how-much-motivation-do-you-derive-from-curiosity-alone-in |
# COVID-19: An opportunity to help by modelling testing and tracing to inform the UK government
Tim Colbourn, a leading UK epidemiologist, is looking for help with modelling the effectiveness of testing and tracing for COVID-19, along with comparing its effect and cost to other interventions. He has composed a documen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YhNQuCLsPiCAxJh32/covid-19-an-opportunity-to-help-by-modelling-testing-and |
# My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17
Epistemic Status: Even farther out of my supposed expertise than previous Covid-19 posts.
A little over a week ago I started writing up my general thinking about Covid-19. I then ended up pulling out from that post first [The One Mistake Rule](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/10/the-o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/psz5yM5Eabf6GXeyS/my-covid-19-thinking-4-17 |
# Better name for "Heavy-tailedness of the world?"
There is an important variable (or cluster of similar correlated variables) that I need a better name for. I also appreciate feedback on whether or not this variable is even a thing, and if so how I should characterize it. I have two possible names and two attempts at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D2AgH7wNEz2SJCgBs/better-name-for-heavy-tailedness-of-the-world |
# Helping the kids post
Sometimes I tell the kids "sorry, I can't do that with you right now, I'm writing a blog post". A few months ago Lily (then 5y) came up to me and asked if I would help her write a post. We sat down on the couch, she dictated, I typed, and out came a [post about bridges](https://www.lilywise.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQa2LZW7kLFF2eCpF/helping-the-kids-post |
# My stumble on COVID-19
A couple weeks ago, I started investigating the response, here and in the stock market, to COVID-19. [I found](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nHyE3LPe2d98cbvhf/has-lesswrong-been-a-good-early-alarm-bell-for-the-pandemic) that LessWrong's conversation took off about a week after the stock mark... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EdJD3v2uxLrL3pA75/my-stumble-on-covid-19 |
# My dad got stung by a bee, and is mildly allergic. What are the tradeoffs involved in deciding whether to have him go the the emergency room?
**Facts:**
* My dad is 61, and reasonably healthy.
* 20 minutes ago, he got stung by a bee, on the ear.
* When he's been stung (or bitten by ants) in the past, the area... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9YTbJBdSTngGaZFh/my-dad-got-stung-by-a-bee-and-is-mildly-allergic-what-are |
# Link Summary: Top 10 Replicated Findings from Behavioral Genetics
This is a summary of the 10 findings in the paper _Top 10 Replicated Findings from Behavioral Genetics_ ([Plomin et al 2016](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4739500/)). I posted this as a comment a while back, but now I'm making it a full... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aqPk8vZbdsidTDJsj/link-summary-top-10-replicated-findings-from-behavioral |
# The Hammer and the Mask - A call to action
Epistemic status: Pretty confident, seems obviously correct.
Summary: We should promote widespread use of reusable silicone masks to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
**Masks and transmission of SARS-CoV-2**
----------------------------------------
SARS-CoV-2 spreads mainly... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oHT2WZxFA9CSPMicb/the-hammer-and-the-mask-a-call-to-action |
# Every system seems random from the inside
_\[Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/04/19/every-system-random-inside/). This builds on a lot of stuff I wrote from before I was cross-posting to Less Wrong, but should be mostly intelligible on a general intuition of what a "comput... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zWYB8v3wdjJ45u5qa/every-system-seems-random-from-the-inside |
# Database of existential risk estimates
_This post was written for [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/), though the opinions expressed are my own. [Cross-posted from the Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JQQAQrunyGGhzE23a/database-of-existential-risk-estimates... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jyRbMGimunhXGPxk7/database-of-existential-risk-estimates |
# What Happens During a Recession
3 weeks ago I asked [“What happens during a recession anyway?”](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5mWjazfyLCka6Knk2/what-happens-in-a-recession-anyway) I’ve since researched and given answers on 5 different aspects of recessions, plus there’s a secret six aspect I haven’t published beca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y2bkJtLxoLGddSrZN/what-happens-during-a-recession |
# covid-19 notes, 4/19/20
Brain-dumping some miscellaneous Covid-19 thoughts.
**“Mind viruses”**
\[if you’re skimming, this is the least interesting part of the post IMO\]
In late March I wrote this [big, long dramatic proclamation](https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/613803626535796736/mind-viruses-about-body... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8iuS4kdMDa8sMDBw5/covid-19-notes-4-19-20 |
# AI Services as a Research Paradigm
# Introduction
I would hereby like to advertise a document [Systems of Services
as a Paradigm for AI Alignment
](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jk2GgJnF9pLIQqg9hgX0Tvdukq6MR2qmXW3FyvqiiUg/edit?usp=sharing). I hope that it can serve as a starting point for investigating AI alig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2ofM2oZQwmcWFt8N/ai-services-as-a-research-paradigm |
# Training Regime Day 16: Hamming Questions
Note: I have acquired enough slack to resume writing, but cannot guarantee that it will be consistent.
# Introduction
Sometimes, it makes sense to view your life from a narrative lens - to pretend that you're the main character in a book of your favorite genre. From there,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcLPgwsM5grKkvCLu/training-regime-day-16-hamming-questions-1 |
# Intuitions on Universal Behavior of Information at a Distance
What’s special about [information at a distance](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ehnG4mseKF6xALmQy/p/TTNS3tk5McHqrJCbR)? Some examples of what I mean:
* What information about a little patch of pixels in a photo is relevant to another little patch of pixel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CxEbvETK2WNfHw7v9/intuitions-on-universal-behavior-of-information-at-a |
# Solar system colonisation might not be driven by economics
*This is a stub of an argument that I don't necessarily agree with, but that I think deserves to be thought about and analysed more*.
Why would we expand into the solar system? What's the actual point - what would we get out there?
I'll argue here that the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wd7jBmuHPR77AE7BS/solar-system-colonisation-might-not-be-driven-by-economics |
# Training Regime Day 17: Deflinching and Lines of Retreat
# Introduction
Declaring commitment to [Crocker's rules](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Crocker's_rules) means that other people can optimize their messages to you for information, disregarding our cultures normal rules against potentially causing offense. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rbXE9D5BsJ4wRop99/training-regime-day-17-deflinching-and-lines-of-retreat |
# Databases of human behaviour and preferences?
Hey there, lesserwrongers!
Starting on some of the computer science/neuroscience of my ideas for [deducing human preference](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m2bwD87ctjJDXC3SZ/ultra-simplified-research-agenda).
To do this, it would be useful to have datasets of human be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fx8Mdorwmt696Ramm/databases-of-human-behaviour-and-preferences |
# What are good defense mechanisms against dangerous bullet biting?
Some beliefs seem to naively imply radical and dangerous actions. But there often are rational reasons to not act on those beliefs. Knowing those reasons is really important for those that don't have a natural defense mechanism.
Most people have a n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qB6EBGS5kZpvpmS4e/what-are-good-defense-mechanisms-against-dangerous-bullet |
# Wired Headsets for Video Calls
I've recently become a fan of wired headsets for video calls for two reasons: headsets are good at keeping out background noise, and wired is good for minimizing latency.
When I started working from home I would need to constantly mute and unmute myself on video calls. I'm working fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uxgtKnwiMwbpz5Y4N/wired-headsets-for-video-calls |
# [Site Meta] Feature Update: More Tags! (Experimental)
***Edit: We're specifically seeking feedback right now on the*** [**tag relevance voting system**](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/GJphrRQmfiE6PzSqc/tag-relevance-systems-feedback-requested)**,** ***please chime in if you can. Thanks!***
A month ago, the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k7KokjJDhrEwjDwS7/site-meta-feature-update-more-tags-experimental |
# On Platitudes
In Scott Alexander's [review of Twelve Rules for Life](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/03/26/book-review-twelve-rules-for-life/) he discusses how Jordan Peterson and CS. Lewis seem to have the ability to express cliches in ways that don't feel cliched.
> Jordan Peterson’s superpower is saying cliches ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R7ZBSLjJfkpTWkWRj/on-platitudes |
# How likely is the COVID-19 apocalyptic scenario?
This apocalyptic scenario:
1) We develop no long-term immunity, no vaccines, perhaps because the mutation rate is too high.
2) The disease causes permanent lung damage, making each successive infection worse for the patient.
3) No antivirals get developed, or at le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSKsPwMjn2JxYroNA/how-likely-is-the-covid-19-apocalyptic-scenario |
# Last chance for assessing Kurzweil
Thanks to everyone who've already contributed to [assessing Kurzweil's 1999 predictions for 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019).
I'll be closing that to new volunteers in a few days, but there's still time to be p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mQzrkBPmsk6NAdodB/last-chance-for-assessing-kurzweil |
# Inner alignment in the brain
**Abstract:** We can think of the brain crudely as (1) a neocortex which runs an amazingly capable quasi-general-purpose learning-and-planning algorithm, and (2) subcortical structures (midbrain, etc.), one of whose functions is to calculate rewards that get sent to up the neocortex to d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWFx2Cmsvd4uCKkZ4/inner-alignment-in-the-brain |
# Training Regime Day 18: Negative Visualization
Introduction
============
There is an old riddle: "The inscription makes you sad when you're happy and happy when you're sad. What does it say?"
this too shall pass
Someone once told me that stoicism can be summarized as "don't worry about the stuff you can't change... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6nKm7fwfARF3nZWgx/training-regime-day-18-negative-visualization |
# Description vs simulated prediction
During our investigation into [discontinuous progress](https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation/)[^1^](https://aiimpacts.org/description-vs-simulated-prediction/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-2415 "By ‘discontinuity’, I mean a jump in technological progress that happene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y3n7J5XFAENTX7cZ3/description-vs-simulated-prediction |
# [AN #96]: Buck and I discuss/argue about AI Alignment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YyKKMeCCxnzdohuxj/an-96-buck-and-i-discuss-argue-about-ai-alignment |
# Holiday Pitch: Reflecting on Covid and Connection
Somewhere on the [edge of a Pareto frontier somewhere](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvN2QQpKTuEzgkZHY/being-the-pareto-best-in-the-world), I decided to make one of my shticks “founding [holidays](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/CGkZEQdeBZZXbBT7o/on-rationalist-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4kD2yx3ZjToSj9zhH/holiday-pitch-reflecting-on-covid-and-connection |
# Problem relaxation as a tactic
It's easier to make your way to the supermarket than it is to compute the fastest route, which is yet easier than computing the fastest route for someone running backwards and doing two and a half jumping jacks every five seconds and who only follows the route $p$ percent of the time. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JcpwEKbmNHdwhpq5n/problem-relaxation-as-a-tactic |
# Tag Relevance Systems (Feedback Requested)
We recently launched our Tagging Beta (See [here for the full anouncement](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/k7KokjJDhrEwjDwS7/site-meta-feature-update-more-tags-experimental)). We've spent the past few months thinking a lot about our longterm vision for tags on the site, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GJphrRQmfiE6PzSqc/tag-relevance-systems-feedback-requested |
# Training Regime Day 19: Hamming Questions for Potted Plants
Introduction
============
Sometimes, when thinking about a difficult problem, it helps to pretend that the problem is much simpler - to abstract away the complexity and consider only the core elements.
[Hamming Questions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n6Go8wFADNWycmWiJ/training-regime-day-19-hamming-questions-for-potted-plants |
# Sex, Lies, and Canaanites
[Cross-posted, as always, from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/04/18/sex-lies-and-canaanites/).
* * *
The Origin of Consciousness According to Jaynes
-----------------------------------------------
On the right side of our cranium
Lived the voice of gods and goddesses
Who l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MEgSx2uTaKkaHib8S/sex-lies-and-canaanites |
# What's Hard About Long Tails?
_Epistemic status: more confident in the conclusion than in any particular model._
Suppose we have a fire insurance company with $2.5M in monthly revenue, and claims following a power law:
* Most months, claims are low
* Once every ~1 year, they see around $5M in claims
* Once e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wtjazsKN9pzL2Fk6e/what-s-hard-about-long-tails |
# My experience with the "rationalist uncanny valley"
**Epistemic status: Very Uncertain.** Originally written with the belief rationality has harmed my everyday life; revised to reflect my current belief that it's been somewhat positive. The tone of this article, and some of the content, may constitute self-punishmen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPEfdgzukPcJCui9D/my-experience-with-the-rationalist-uncanny-valley |
# Do you trust the research on handwriting vs. typing for notes?
For a while now, I've heard the claim that "studies show" that note-takers remember content better if they take notes by hand versus on a computer. I previously took this claim on face value in part because this was before I'd heard about the replicatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b988iuyNQNZJMwoDP/do-you-trust-the-research-on-handwriting-vs-typing-for-notes |
# My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data
Previous week: [My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/17/my-covid-19-thinking-4-17/)
Other previous foundational Covid-19 thoughts here: [On R0](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/07/on-r0/), [Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously](https://thezvi.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ijd2TsoGrhcriAeNs/my-covid-19-thinking-4-23-pre-cuomo-data |
# Retracting on Facebook
Sometimes I'm in a Facebook discussion and someone says something they wish they hadn't. Maybe it turns out to be wrong, or misleading, or insensitive. One way I've seen this poorly handled is posting a follow-up comment:
[](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xyZWhir9Yn9q8PDTx/retracting-on-facebook |
# The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is the idea that there are no hundred-dollar bills lying on the sidewalk because someone smarter than you would have picked them up by now. The EMH is a good tool for most people.
If you're smart enough then you should reverse this advice into ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rJKMW4yepK5AjHxLb/the-inefficient-market-hypothesis |
# Why do you have a personal rationalist blog instead of using LessWrong? Why don't you cross-post all your relevant blog posts?
to those it applies
also see: [Site Guide: Personal Blogposts vs Frontpage Posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5conQhfa4rgb4SaWx/site-guide-personal-blogposts-vs-frontpage-posts) | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gZoXeDvMyTLgDLAZg/why-do-you-have-a-personal-rationalist-blog-instead-of-using |
# Training Regime Day 20: OODA Loop
Introduction
============
The OODA loop is the cycle of observe -> orient -> decide -> act. This was developed by Colonel John Boyd as an abstraction of the rapid decision-making that occurs during combat. The loop contains four stages:
Observe: Take in information from the enviro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bh9gAZTmGyJ4j7h2L/training-regime-day-20-ooda-loop |
# What makes counterfactuals comparable?
l was attempting to write a reference post on the concept of comparability in decision theory problems, but I realised that I don't yet have a strong enough grasp on the various positions that one could adopt to write a post worthy of being a reference. I'll quote my draft quit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6E6D3qLPM3urXDPpK/what-makes-counterfactuals-comparable-1 |
# The Chilling Effect of Confiscation
The federal government has been seizing mask imports:
* Three million, on arrival at the Port of New York and New Jersey on 2020-03-18 ([Boston Globe](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/27/nation/states-intense-chase-protective-equipment-coronavirus-isnt-only-rival/))
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttMHGyb8FoiZf2sSR/the-chilling-effect-of-confiscation |
# Fast Takeoff in Biological Intelligence
_\[Speculative and not my area of expertise; probably wrong. Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/04/25/fast-takeoff-biological-intelligence/).\]_
One of the possible risks of artificial intelligence is the idea of “fast” (exponential) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eweeg8iHX5SK5oHvs/fast-takeoff-in-biological-intelligence |
# On New York’s Antibody Tests
Previously: [My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/23/my-covid-19-thinking-4-23-pre-cuomo-data/) which has links to other previous stuff at the top.
We’re all working from the same information, mostly from Cuomo’s slides. Let’s reproduce them he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A83a8AQGZDBaETGFL/on-new-york-s-antibody-tests |
# What are your favorite examples of distillation?
I'm a big fan of the [Distill](https://distill.pub) machine learning journal and the ideas of [Research Debt](https://distill.pub/2017/research-debt/) and distillation. I consider Distill and LessWrong great repositories for distillations of ML / AI and some math topi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pcvYFDHw7NXFPrFRC/what-are-your-favorite-examples-of-distillation |
# Training Regime Day 21: Executing Intentions
Introduction
============
It is written about the first of the [Twelve Virtues](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZqGiPHTpiDMwqMN2/the-twelve-virtues-of-rationality):
> Curiosity seeks to annihilate itself; there is no curiosity that does not want an answer.
The main fl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZviDcaHieq3hAaKSA/training-regime-day-21-executing-intentions |
# Training Regime Day 22: Murphyjitsu 2
Introduction
============
Society has many pieces of wisdom floating around that are epistemically false, but instrumentally useful.
Individuals are told to "invest, then don't touch the money until you retire". "Invest, then don't touch it" is false because sometimes, some in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JmunrNznbETNCuvjh/training-regime-day-22-murphyjitsu-2 |
# It's Not About The Nail
_\[This is hardly original; I’m documenting for my own sake since it took so long for me to understand. Cross-posted from [Grand, Unified, Crazy](https://grandunifiedcrazy.com/2020/04/26/not-about-the-nail/).\]_
There’s an old saw, that when a women complains she wants sympathy, but when a m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MMxi5BYhh2kJgPawz/it-s-not-about-the-nail |
# Helping Lily Make Dinner
Our house has a dinner rotation, with each of the six adults typically cooking once a week. Last week Lily (6y) asked if she could take a turn, and I offered to help her. Before I let her sign up I talked her through what this would entail: enough food for eight people, two of them vegan, wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PmdnyszLPXHC7d7PL/helping-lily-make-dinner |
# A Brief Update on Updates
I have a lot of essays currently in my pipeline and a lot more things I want to talk about, however, I’ve realized that my self-imposed weekly update schedule was negatively impacting the quality of those posts. I’d rather not just right a bunch of useless material so I can say I’ve written... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZNsGoKB6MqiyTy25X/a-brief-update-on-updates |
# Training Regime Day 23: TAPs 2
Introduction
============
N. K. Jemisin:
> Seasons will reduce the world to such miserly dreams.
When I read this, my first thought was "just like adulthood."
Children have dreams. When I was little, I wanted to be a nuclear physicist. I didn't really know what that meant, but ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TSYoR5wTA89AoapX8/training-regime-day-23-taps-2 |
# [Link] COVID-19 causing deadly blood clots in younger people
Great rundown at [https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1617381.html](https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1617381.html)
Summary: plenty of evidence that COVID-19 is causing blood clots in younger people, which leads to noticeable increases in strokes and cardiac arre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHyAKfF5tAztEZbBC/link-covid-19-causing-deadly-blood-clots-in-younger-people |
# The Best Virtual Worlds for "Hanging Out"
**UPDATES Sept 5 2020**
* Online Town is now [Gather Town](https://gather.town/). They have continued to ship new features and improve their service in the past few months.
* There are several apps similar to Gather Town now. My favorite is [Topia](topia.io/). It is les... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hswzBzHSMGxz8rcXg/the-best-virtual-worlds-for-hanging-out |
# Market-shaping approaches to accelerate COVID-19 response: a role for option-based guarantees?
_This is a policy brief directed at decision makers in the UK government, with a view to accelerating production of tests, drugs and vaccines for COVID-19; but it could be adapted for a wide variety of countries, products ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXb4gcDP2fgBPcMHJ/market-shaping-approaches-to-accelerate-covid-19-response-a |
# Emergency Central Planning
[Central planning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_planning) generally hasn't worked out very well for countries, and essentially the whole world has moved over to [markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_economy). So why are there strong calls for governments to run disaster ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DjuA9xpyfn9tknuwM/emergency-central-planning |
# A Book Review
Someone wrote a blog post reviewing a book by some sociologist named Murray. Never heard of him. Anyway, I couldn't get through the whole thing because the reviewer has this _really obnoxious_ writing style that uses way too many italics and exclamation points (as well as occasional weirdly out-of-plac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4aHMjJBSDfrkouzaB/a-book-review |
# Training Regime Day 24: Resolve Cycles 2
Introduction
============
Two anecdotes that I claim have something in common:
> Scene: me at office hours having worked on an algebra problem for 3+ hours.
> TA: The solution involves matrices
> Me: <realizes answer>
> Scene: friend asking me for help solving a reas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X67xvJyFLfprYZ4CB/training-regime-day-24-resolve-cycles-2 |
# Negative Feedback and Simulacra
=============================================================================================================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z5wF8mdonsM2AuGgt/negative-feedback-and-simulacra |
# I do not like math
I do not like math very much.
I do not find math completely boring. If I were stuck in a prison cell I'd happily do math until I expired from a ruptured spline. Insofar as I have escaped prison, I have attempted to escape math too.
Avoiding math was particularly difficult while I earned my bache... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y6KQee8HeAmWKqsNp/i-do-not-like-math |
# Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief - 29 Apr
It’s been almost a month since my [last COVID Consolidated Brief](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3npE798Z7A4m7WTx3/peter-s-covid-consolidated-brief-for-2-april) and I hope you are all doing ok. I’ve personally been settling into the new normal. On the other hand, I’ve witne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q68WH32ZZoWZRRYPn/peter-s-covid-consolidated-brief-29-apr |
# [AN #97]: Are there historical examples of large, robust discontinuities?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WknLjywekGajwD2fp/an-97-are-there-historical-examples-of-large-robust |
# Motivating Abstraction-First Decision Theory
Let’s start with a prototypical embedded decision theory problem: we run two instances of the same “agent” from the same source code and in the same environment, and the outcome depends on the choices of both agents; both agents have full knowledge of the setup.
![](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oQHoy2tnLsKuEDYtJ/motivating-abstraction-first-decision-theory |
# Training Regime Day 25: Recursive Self-Improvement
Epistemic status: highly experimental
Introduction
============
I have this theory that humans have this implicit skill that's something like "doing stuff". If you're getting at "doing stuff", then you can reliably get what you want. If you're not good at "doing ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yxGBzrGMg4t8QNThA/training-regime-day-25-recursive-self-improvement |
# On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons”
Analysis of / response to: [COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons](https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/)
The article above... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/riB8m9PBvXJziFYMv/on-covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical |
# Why anything that can be for-profit, should be
In a recent post I surveyed different [types of funding models](https://rootsofprogress.org/funding-models-for-science-and-innovation), including nonprofit models such as universities or private foundations, and for-profit models such as startups. Although we need both ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n9dnGMQtXxQw9FZWP/why-anything-that-can-be-for-profit-should-be |
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