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# Melting democracy
[Liquid democracy](http://www.icare.cl/assets/uploads/2018/01/bryan-ford-ppt.pdf), also known as [delegative democracy](https://bford.info/deleg/deleg.pdf), is a proposed hybrid between direct democracy and representative democracy. In liquid democracy, as in direct democracy, everyone is able to v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nzwnXiRznNgRyn4y/melting-democracy |
# Since the "Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?" thread was posted, has new information emerged that may update those estimates?
[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4GFHbhxE2pfiadhi/will-covid-19-survivors-suffer-lasting-disability-at-a-high](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4GFHbhxE2pfiad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vMfHxNtzRnwzneEYe/since-the-will-covid-19-survivors-suffer-lasting-disability |
# What is the alternative to intent alignment called?
Paul defines intent alignment of an AI A to a human H as the criterion that A is trying to do what H wants it to do. What term do people use for the definition of alignment in which A is trying to achieve H's goals (whether or not H intends for A to achieve H's go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NuhsBLxxswinm2JKZ/what-is-the-alternative-to-intent-alignment-called |
# Against strong bayesianism
*Note that this post has been edited in response to feedback and comments. In particular, I've added the word "strong" into the title, and an explanation of it at the beginning of the post, to be clearer what position I'm critiquing. I've also edited the discussion of Blockhead.*
In this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5aAatvkHdPH6HT3P9/against-strong-bayesianism |
# Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020
A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting.
- You can sign up [here](https://forecasting.substack.com/).
- You can also see this post on the Effective Altruism Forum [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9YJKugJ68qTFzMNCM/forecasting-newsletter-april... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e4C7hTmbmPfLjJzXT/forecasting-newsletter-april-2020-1 |
# The Embarrassing Problem of Premature Exploitation
_tl;dr: summarising some handy concepts from [Algorithms to Live By](https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/1627790365), as they relate to optionality and tinkering._
* * *
Babies love putting things in their mouths: dirt, insects, bi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TSNZRtzefZYaLBjR7/the-embarrassing-problem-of-premature-exploitation |
# Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo
Epistemic Status: As with all my Covid-19 posts I’m not any kind of expert and am doubtless making a lot of mistakes. Yet it seems worthwhile to persist.
In [previous posts](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/25/on-new-yorks-antibody-tests/) I’ve been focused my direct modeling on Ne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mfXaovjaLgLo5Hhmr/covid-19-4-30-stuck-in-limbo |
# Generalized Efficient Markets and Academia
Generalized efficient markets (GEM) says that low-hanging fruit has already been picked. If there were some easy way to reliably make a fortune on the stock market, it would have already been done, and the opportunity would be gone. If some obvious theory explained all the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WwJK8mxRhWkmkyFsk/generalized-efficient-markets-and-academia |
# "God Rewards Fools"
In an otherwise gripping but misleading book about the history of cryptography called The Code Book, by Simon Singh, there is a quote from one of the two inventors of Diffie-Hellman key exchange which has stuck with me two decades later. (I've been unable to determine whether it was Diffie or Hel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NzqhjL9nd8FSYA5QN/god-rewards-fools |
# Reopen Protest Sign Survey
With the protests to end the lockdowns, the main pictures I've seen in my social media bubble have been ones with signs like " [I need a haircut"](https://twitter.com/kharyp/status/1251714478124732416) or " [Let my People Golf](https://twitter.com/PollerPhoto/status/1251690324000337921)". ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ffqsHqptkYRCkZsAe/reopen-protest-sign-survey |
# Topological metaphysics: relating point-set topology and locale theory
The following is an informal exposition of some mathematical concepts from *[Topology via Logic](https://www.amazon.com/Topology-Cambridge-Theoretical-Computer-Science/dp/0521576512)*, with special attention to philosophical implications. Those s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yTvZFzcgt7rGYMxP5/topological-metaphysics-relating-point-set-topology-and |
# Interview with Aubrey de Grey, chief science officer of the SENS Research Foundation
**Introduction**
================
In [the last post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hQH8t5GgJ7xmexjeA/why-sens-makes-sense), I explained why I think SENS Research Foundation is probably a great choice for its cost-effect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxnnLHo9WCYBKkzdz/interview-with-aubrey-de-grey-chief-science-officer-of-the |
# Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here’s a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post][1])
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here’s the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i3Z3hreFXjb6TRdve/open-and-welcome-thread-may-2020 |
# SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell, Hold
Previously: [Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/16/evaluating-predictions-in-hindsight/)
Epistemic Status: Having fun
Evaluating predictions is hard, especially about the future. Let’s do it.
The most frustrating part of predi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSdZjyFSky3d34ySh/slatestarcodex-2020-predictions-buy-sell-hold |
# 2020 predictions
EDIT: Ha, just noticed that Zvi has done something similar, I’ll be interested to check another source.
The need for comparison
=======================
A couple of posts ([1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions), [2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BthN... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/orSNNCm77LiSEBovx/2020-predictions |
# Meditation: the screen-and-watcher model of the human mind, and how to use it
Background: I started meditating with the app Headspace in 2017, and started using the app Waking Up this past month at the same time I started meditating a lot more. (10h in the past month, vs 30h in the three years before that). I am not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HEPopAZbwu4S34Bmy/meditation-the-screen-and-watcher-model-of-the-human-mind |
# Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy on AI ethics and superintelligence
The _Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy -_ pretty much the standard reference for surveys of philosophical topics - has a brand-new ("First published Thu Apr 30, 2020_"_) article, "Ethics of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics". Section 2.10 is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gmsAWkcQRJst2Jnrk/stanford-encyclopedia-of-philosophy-on-ai-ethics-and |
# Rationality vs. Taleb's Antifragilism
Edited for LessWrong from my [Original Post](https://atlaspragmatica.com/combining-rationality-and-antifragility/).
Nassim Taleb rails against Rationality frequently in his books, but as someone that finds both [Antifragility](https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/nassim-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2LFb29vwHPdAjRRZk/rationality-vs-taleb-s-antifragilism |
# What Is The Cost of Your Attention?
Before Fake News, before Yellow Journalism, there was [Benjamin Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Day_(publisher)), who ran a newspaper called _[The Sun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(New_York_City))_. _The Sun_ was started on September 3rd, 1833 with a revo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QwFsq427FZjK65nX4/what-is-the-cost-of-your-attention |
# How does iterated amplification exceed human abilities?
When I first started learning about IDA, I thought that agents trained using IDA would be human-level after the first stage, i.e. that Distill(H) would be human-level. As I've [written about before](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FdfzFcRvqLf4k5eoQ/list-of-reso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ajQzejMYizfX4dMWK/how-does-iterated-amplification-exceed-human-abilities |
# Book Review: Narconomics
I have often heard that the war on drugs is a failure, but the reason why varies.
Sometimes, the war on drugs is a failure like the war in Iraq is a failure: because it is very hard to nation-build, to create a society that does not produce or consume drugs.
Sometimes, the war on drugs is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PJJpcfcYpPJMtXvk9/book-review-narconomics |
# On Negative Feedback and Simulacra
Response to (Elizabeth @ LessWrong): [Negative Feedback and Simulacra](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z5wF8mdonsM2AuGgt/negative-feedback-and-simulacra)
Requires/Assumes (Compass Rose): [Simulacra and Subjectivity](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/simulacra-subjectivity/)
Epistemi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fwFKXcay9QMmvWeE3/on-negative-feedback-and-simulacra |
# Hate Crime Statistics
It's generally hard to tell whether long-term problems are getting better or worse from looking at news coverage or hearing about problems. Each gives you some information, but it's hard to tell how it compares to what was happening before. Quantitative data can help give some perspective, howe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q8P74pJzfYr84ak8G/hate-crime-statistics |
# How uniform is the neocortex?
How uniform is the neocortex?
=============================
The neocortex is the part of the human brain responsible for higher-order functions like sensory perception, cognition, and language, and has been hypothesized to be uniformly composed of general-purpose data-processing module... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WFopenhCXyHX3ukw3/how-uniform-is-the-neocortex |
# Named Distributions as Artifacts
On confusing priors with models
-------------------------------
Being Abraham de Moivre and being born in the 17th century must have been a really sad state of affairs. For one, you have the bubonic plague thing going on, but even worse for de Moivre, you don't have computers and se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gea4TBueYq7ZqXyAk/named-distributions-as-artifacts |
# Scott Garrabrant's problem on recovering Brouwer as a corollary of Lawvere
Edit: Pre-print available here [https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01563](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01563)
Also link to earlier post here [https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/5bd75cc58225bf06703753a9/formal-open-problem-in-decision-theory?fbcl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HZayhqDDKDep2Hezu/scott-garrabrant-s-problem-on-recovering-brouwer-as-a |
# Consistent Glomarization should be feasible
[Glomarization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glomar_response) is responding that one "can neither confirm nor deny" something. It has to be done consistently, to avoid problems [like](http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/users/bentz/humor/lawyer.html):
>$\begin{array}{ll}
\te... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bP5sbhARMSKiDiq7r/consistent-glomarization-should-be-feasible |
# What information on (or relevant to) modal immortality do you recommend?
Which information should I consume if I want to better understand the implications (or whether there are any implications) of modal immortality?
Modal immortality combines two premises:
- we live in a Big World: your brain configuration is ins... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmsFfXFiS2fpA7xWs/what-information-on-or-relevant-to-modal-immortality-do-you |
# Insights from Euclid's 'Elements'
Presumably, I was taught geometry as a child. I do not remember.
Recently, I'd made my way halfway through a complex analysis textbook, only to find another which seemed more suitable and engaging. Unfortunately, the exposition was geometric. I knew something was wrong – I knew som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wpf3Gsa8A89mmjkk8/insights-from-euclid-s-elements |
# Individual Rationality Needn't Generalize to Rational Consensus
# tl;dr
Organizations that enforce rationality at the collective level can get very different voting outcomes than organizations that enforce rationality at the individual level, per known results in social choice theory. This has implications for rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LxQsCkGEx9LkHPqDj/individual-rationality-needn-t-generalize-to-rational |
# Constructive Definitions
For some concepts, the most natural way for them to be defined is for the definition to first apply to a paradigmatic or natural domain which is then extended for reasons of convenience. We will call these constructive definitions.
**Defining Numbers**
Consider the example of numbers. The ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr8os45eMwK6hRRdr/constructive-definitions |
# "AI and Efficiency", OA (44✕ improvement in CNNs since 2012)
**Abstract: **
> We’re releasing an analysis showing that since 2012 the amount of compute needed to train a neural net to the same performance on ImageNet[^1^](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-efficiency/#rf1) classification has been decreasing by a factor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MPXqewDipXHY3j7we/ai-and-efficiency-oa-44-improvement-in-cnns-since-2012 |
# Writing Causal Models Like We Write Programs
Clunc
-----
We’ll start with a made-up programming language called Clunc. The distinguishing feature of clunc is that it combines classes and functions into a single type, called a clunc. It looks like this:
quad = Clunc { x = 4 constant = 3 linear = 2*x + ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xd9FLs4geRAWxkQPE/writing-causal-models-like-we-write-programs |
# Competitive safety via gradated curricula
_Epistemic status: brainstorming some speculative research directions. Not trying to thoroughly justify the claims I’m making._
One way to think about the AI safety problem: there’s a spectrum of methods which each represent a different tradeoff between safety and ease of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vLepnCxCWW6YTw8eW/competitive-safety-via-gradated-curricula |
# A non-mystical explanation of insight meditation and the three characteristics of existence: introduction and preamble
Introduction
============
Insight meditation, enlightenment, what’s that all about?
The sequence of posts starting from this one is my personal attempt at answering that question. It grew out of m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mf2MCkYgSZSJRz5nM/a-non-mystical-explanation-of-insight-meditation-and-the |
# Modeling naturalized decision problems in linear logic
The following is a model of a simple decision problem (namely, the [5 and 10 problem](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/5-and-10)) in [linear logic](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/logic-linear/). Basic familiarity with linear logic is assumed (enough to know w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bcFhPHcDRbWKcAEfk/modeling-naturalized-decision-problems-in-linear-logic |
# How can nonprofits gain the advantages of the for-profit model?
In my [last post](https://rootsofprogress.org/organizational-metabolism-and-the-for-profit-advantage) I described the advantages of for-profit models over nonprofit models, including scalable revenue, incentives and metrics to drive effectiveness and ef... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gzyddrokETRkqmE49/how-can-nonprofits-gain-the-advantages-of-the-for-profit |
# Maths writer/cowritter needed: how you can't distinguish early exponential from early sigmoid
It's [well known](http://aleph.se/papers/A%20Sigmoid%20Dialogue.pdf) in FHI and similar circles, that it's impossible to distinguish an exponential (growth going up wildly) from a sigmoid/logistic curve (exponential growth ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCq4ca3tTcfQgrFZM/maths-writer-cowritter-needed-how-you-can-t-distinguish |
# Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results
**EDIT**: Mean and standard deviation of individual predictions can be found [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YvbS2KdDRNDsLrKHq/kurzweil-s-predictions-scores).
Thanks to all my brave assessors, I now have the data about Kurzweil's [1999 predictions about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results |
# Introduction to forecasting worksheet
I've written [this interactive notebook]( https://www.foretold.io/c/a30a859c-2131-4703-9368-2f7c7372fdd4/n/48f6e50a-68d9-4fe6-a8f2-27d5a627dc66 ) in [Foretold](foretold.io) prediction platform. It is meant to be completely beginner friendly and takes about 2 hours to go through... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WAjPGK8pSTCM7Lca5/introduction-to-forecasting-worksheet |
# [AN #98]: Understanding neural net training by seeing which gradients were helpful
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sj9YurD9vwpfPErs2/an-98-understanding-neural-net-training-by-seeing-which |
# Covid-19: New York’s Antibody Tests 2
Previously: [On New York’s Antibody Tests](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/25/on-new-yorks-antibody-tests/)
New York continues to be the only place even _trying _to do antibody tests in a way that involves releasing information on the population.
What do we now know? How ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LvPGTLoidJ4rRPMbh/covid-19-new-york-s-antibody-tests-2 |
# Coping and Cultures
# Coping and Cultures
(or, Acquiring Coping Mechanisms from the Culture of a Field of Study)
One of the useful pieces of implicit knowledge that college or mentorship gives people are mental adaptations that make the stressors particular to a field of study more tolerable. These often go unnoti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LQ5yM9E45r37CCRyx/coping-and-cultures |
# Tips/tricks/notes on optimizing investments
I've been optimizing various aspects of my investment setup recently, and will write up some tips and tricks that I've found in the form of "answers" here. Others are welcome to share their own here if they'd like. (Disclaimer: I’m not a lawyer, accountant, or investment a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RWna48W4bPr2ChePz/tips-tricks-notes-on-optimizing-investments |
# Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity
*(Originally posted to the* [*Deepmind Blog*](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Specification-gaming-the-flip-side-of-AI-ingenuity)*)*
**Specification gaming** is a behaviour that satisfies the literal specification of an objective without achieving the intended o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7b2RJJQ76hjZwarnj/specification-gaming-the-flip-side-of-ai-ingenuity |
# Prioritizing COVID-19 interventions & individual donations
**NOTE**: **The COVID-19 funding landscape is evolving rapidly, and we are making updates to reflect new developments and revised donation recommendations. Please check the [EA Forum version of this post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/opdMXibKjko... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwHAfw3cpwnTZe6c4/prioritizing-covid-19-interventions-and-individual-donations |
# [link] How many humans will have their brain preserved? Forecasts and trends
http://lessdead.com/how-many-humans-will-have-their-brain-preserved-forecasts-and-trends
**Summary**:
> Doubling time for the number of people that got cryopreserved has been pretty consistently 9 years since the beginning. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hDkJaFu4NuH7NjKMA/link-how-many-humans-will-have-their-brain-preserved |
# Multiple Arguments, Multiple Comments
This is partly a recommendation on how to format multiple different independent points or replies in any discussion forum, but it's also a post I'm going to use as a link to explain why I'm leaving comments all over the place so that I don't seem as weird/feel self conscious and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBF8GuBmQnNCBzh6Y/multiple-arguments-multiple-comments |
# Kurzweil's predictions' individual scores
In [my post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results) on Kurzweil's 1999 predictions for 2019, I wrote:
>The (anonymised) data can be [found here]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YvbS2KdDRNDsLrKHq/kurzweil-s-predictions-individual-scores |
# Meditation skill: Surfing the Urge
**Surfing the Urge: A distress tolerance skill**
================================================
I learned this meditation technique from my freediving coach. It's a technique we employ during a breath-hold to help us deal with an increasingly strong urge to breath.
Understand t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ieMQHkLuYXND8Yohn/meditation-skill-surfing-the-urge |
# Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo
Last week: [Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/covid-19-4-30-stuck-in-limbo/)
Recently: [Covid-19: New York’s Antibody Tests 2](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/06/covid-19-new-yorks-antibody-tests-2/), [On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Cou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TcgWKeuSNfQvjK6Mj/covid-19-5-7-fighting-limbo |
# A non-mystical explanation of "no-self" (three characteristics series)
_This is the second post of the "a non-mystical explanation of insight meditation and the three characteristics of existence_" _series. You can read the first post, explaining my general intent and approach, [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W59Nb72sYJhMJKGB8/a-non-mystical-explanation-of-no-self-three-characteristics |
# Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky
In _[The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/)_, Toby Ord writes:
> we need to remember how quickly new technologies can be upon us, and to be wary of assertions that they are either impossible or so distant in time that we have no cause for concern. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3qypPmmNHEmqegoFF/failures-in-technology-forecasting-a-reply-to-ord-and |
# Kids and Moral Agency
We were having some sort of discussion where the idea of a "moral agent" came up, and [Lily](https://www.lilywise.com/) asked what one was. I described the idea, including something along the lines of "if it hurts you is that it's fault?", and then asked her what counted. Her answers, with my o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xH55LcypQ5ygMyxaP/kids-and-moral-agency |
# Rationality Vienna [Virtual] Meetup, May 2020
1) Check-Ins & Round of Introductions
2) Presentation (or recapitulation) of key ideas of Daniel Schmachtenberger by Anna Riedl
3) Discussion
We can stay online as long as someone wants to.
To get an in-depth preparation on the topic beforehand, listen to: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/gSRK6gJ25khSZMDwv/rationality-vienna-virtual-meetup-may-2020 |
# AI Boxing for Hardware-bound agents (aka the China alignment problem)
I feel like I fit into a small group of people who are both:
1) Very confident AI will be developed in the next few decades
2) Not terribly worried about AI alignment
Most people around here seem to fall into either the camp "AI is always 50 ye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sGZco2jFD5JfhD9gg/ai-boxing-for-hardware-bound-agents-aka-the-china-alignment |
# How to do remote co-working
The single biggest improvement to my productivity during this epidemic has been from co-working with friends on Skype.
This is really easy to do and doesn’t really need an explanation. But it took some activation energy for me to implement it reasonably well and so I’ll spell out what wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qi9MxS5zhxjXK75dz/how-to-do-remote-co-working |
# Corrigibility as outside view
You run a country. One day, you think "I could help so many more people if I set all the rules... and I could make this happen". As far as you can tell, this is the _real reason_ you want to set the rules – you want to help people, and you think you'd do a good job.
 I'm part of. I asked the author if they wanted acknowledgement; I'll update if so.
Definition of "perennial discoveries": "These are scienc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pM4sKMR4Rk4d3Ljmx/what-are-examples-of-perennial-discoveries |
# Is there any scientific evidence for benefits of meditation?
Are there good reasons for a typical reader of LessWrong to invest their time and effort into meditation practice? I'm going to do a literature review and will keep adding answers here but contributions from others are more than welcome. Some ground rules ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YrGrwcNEkHCoiZW7p/is-there-any-scientific-evidence-for-benefits-of-meditation |
# Shared House Setup
In my post on [helping Lily make dinner](https://www.jefftk.com/p/helping-lily-make-dinner) I talked about how there were eight people in the house, and someone wrote to me to ask how this works and how we ended up with that arrangement.
We've been living in group households for most of the last ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x3uq9g2cM5XZehSav/shared-house-setup |
# Project Proposal: Gears of Aging
Imagine building an airplane the way we do biology research.
Hundreds of separate research groups each pick different airplane parts to work on. There’s no particular coordination in this; people choose based first on what they know how to build, second on what seems fun/interesting... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4ceuEDj7LBk8vAhp/project-proposal-gears-of-aging |
# Literature Review For Academic Outsiders: What, How, and Why
[A few years ago I wrote a comment on LessWrong](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/DtS6x5r54sEx7e2tP/there-is-a-war#comment-sweg2J5jRdowP6uuH) about how most authors on the site probably don't know how to do a literature review:
> On the one hand, I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RKz7pc6snBttndxXz/literature-review-for-academic-outsiders-what-how-and-why-1 |
# Why COVID-19 prevention at the margin might be bad for most LWers
I'm surprised and confused that no one else seems to be saying this, but I think the most extreme measures LWers have been talking about are much more likely to harm than help the world, and probably those LWers themselves. These are things like usin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3ruCifry4cDQgEpX/why-covid-19-prevention-at-the-margin-might-be-bad-for-most |
# The Mind: Board Game Review
Recently I've played a board game called [The Mind](https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/244992/mind). I had an _amazing_ experience and would highly recommend it to anyone. But I think the LW crowd might find it especially interesting, and I'll say more on that at the end.
I'll describe ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GaP3JK5kSABRa8GkK/the-mind-board-game-review |
# Really Fresh Baking
Many baked goods are much better when they still have their cooking warmth. Some foods, like pizza, are nearly always served this way, but others are only done this way occasionally. Several companies have used this to offer a much tastier product than you'd normally get:
* Midwest Airlines [c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vTH2NgR5dHw9nErvb/really-fresh-baking |
# Do nasal decongestants increase risk associated with cardiovascular (and respiratory via second-order effects) symptoms from COVID-19?
Currently trying to think my way through this one given that I use a topical oxymetazoline spray nightly (else I'm substantially unable to sleep due to being unable to breathe throug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GoBBmmKzvT8XFwE8g/do-nasal-decongestants-increase-risk-associated-with |
# The Greatest Host
Hi all, I recently wrote a blog post summarizing some articles I found really fascinating by Stephen Hedrick that leverage evolution and viral ecology to argue:
1. While our immune system is indeed sophisticated, it doesn’t keep us any more protected from parasites than the more simple immune syst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ce5cdvLkKyu6nTbh9/the-greatest-host-2 |
# Covid-19: Comorbidity
We’ve all seen statistics that _most _people who die of Covid-19 have at least one comorbidity. They also almost all have the particular comorbidity of _age. _The biggest risk, by far, is being old. The question that I don’t see being properly asked anywhere (I’d love for this post to be unnece... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cFYDxa5YFyGNtLfbD/covid-19-comorbidity |
# Zoom Technologies, Inc. vs. the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
The efficient markets hypothesis (or _EMH_ for short) is the idea ["that asset prices reflect all available information"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis). Price changes in a liquid market are understood to be unpredictable—[_anti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tonKatiDTzTP8LrEk/zoom-technologies-inc-vs-the-efficient-markets-hypothesis |
# Book report: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (von Neumann & Morgenstern)
I finally read a game theory textbook. Von Neumann and Morgenstern's "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" basically started the field of game theory. I'll summarize the main ideas and my opinions.
This was also the book that introduce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRKyZGcoio9JhdmvX/book-report-theory-of-games-and-economic-behavior-von |
# Setting up a new Mac
I've had somewhat bad luck with computers lately. In late January my work computer stopped charging, and they replaced it with a used model because they were having supply issues. Its replacement had a broken webcam and, as expected for a butterfly mac, inconsistent keyboard. In April the WiFi s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dorkq3pzBuyn25E53/setting-up-a-new-mac |
# 162 benefits of coronavirus
\[More added: now 183\]
WHILE THE HUGE harms of coronavirus are well-known – death, illness, lockdowns, unemployment, recession, etc. – less attention has understandably been paid to the benefits.
Even clouds this dark have silver linings. Crises produce opportunities, innovation, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5u5Het5Lkcb2nSWJp/162-benefits-of-coronavirus |
# What would flourishing look like in Conway's Game of Life?
I'm thinking of designing a reinforcement learning environment based on [Conway's Game of Life](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Game_of_Life) (GoL). In it, at every timestep, an agent can change the state of some cells.
As is the case with most interest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dRQhnJqG2NK4kEZaX/what-would-flourishing-look-like-in-conway-s-game-of-life |
# Kids and Time
*Note: this is written about normal times. With the pandemic closing schools and daycares a lot of parents have far less time than usual, and while we're lucky that this has [not affected us](https://www.jefftk.com/p/childcare-ii) it's not what I'm looking at this here.*
When I compare my life before ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/337EetjyPz7NGjxRL/kids-and-time |
# Studies On Slack
**I.**
======
Imagine a distant planet full of eyeless animals. Evolving eyes is hard: they need to evolve Eye Part 1, then Eye Part 2, then Eye Part 3, in that order. Each of these requires a separate series of rare mutations.
Here on Earth, scientists believe each of these mutations must have ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GZSzMqr8hAB2dR8pk/studies-on-slack |
# Legends of Runeterra: Early Review
Legends of Runeterra has been getting a generally favorable reception. The game is highly relevant to my interests as someone who plays a lot of collectible card games and is making a collectible card game of my own called Emergents, together with Brian David-Marshall, that will be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EDJWscmEk9fKxsH8w/legends-of-runeterra-early-review |
# [AN #99]: Doubling times for the efficiency of AI algorithms
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R6gPKJAq6dbuLNkwG/an-99-doubling-times-for-the-efficiency-of-ai-algorithms |
# Running Wired Ethernet
After talking excitedly about [how much better](https://www.jefftk.com/p/ethernet-is-worth-it-for-video-calls) a wired connection has made my video calls, [housemates](https://www.jefftk.com/p/shared-house-setup) who work remotely were interested in having ethernet to their desks. My dad lent ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8zA5XHFXj5noAHgyf/running-wired-ethernet |
# Small Data
Probabilistic reasoning starts with priors and then updates them based off of evidence. Artificial neural networks take this to the extreme. You start with deliberately weak priors, then update them with a tremendous quantity of data. I call this "big data".
*In this article, I use "big data" to mean the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xkWEJPwEArWFKH5jM/small-data |
# Utility need not be bounded
A few months ago I disagreed with Sniffnoy about whether the theorem regarding [Savage's axioms](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5J34FAKyEmqKaT7jt/a-summary-of-savage-s-foundations-for-probability-and) for probability and utility, that utility must be bounded, is a good reason for believi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MjfTR6Fn5Lj238kxK/utility-need-not-be-bounded |
# How to avoid Schelling points?
After reading an introductory post on game theory, specifically regarding Schelling Points, I noticed a paradox and I wonder if anyone here can shed some light on the subject.
The scenario I will use to illustrate this is the inverse of a frequently used example to describe popular Sc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RzvEs2fj8kFwezXNi/how-to-avoid-schelling-points |
# Adding a Housemate Under Covid
In mid-March when we [decided to isolate](https://www.jefftk.com/p/stepping-up-isolation), one of our housemates was interested in having her partner move in for the duration. The house talked about it and was ok with that, but he ended up deciding to stay where he was. Two months late... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GswMjWExdpsNyW23N/adding-a-housemate-under-covid |
# Covid 5/21: Limbo Under
Previous weekly reports: [Covid-19 5/7: Fighting Limbo](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/07/covid-19-5-7-fighting-limbo/), [Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/04/30/covid-19-4-30-stuck-in-limbo/)
Slowly, a nation partially reopens. Is it too much, too soon? ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAPDgMHsh2iTrmAWG/covid-5-21-limbo-under |
# "It's Okay", Instructions, Focusing, Experiencing and Frames
Epistemic Status: Interpreting someone else's work will always be speculative
Valentine has [described](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tMhEv28KJYWsu6Wdo/kensh) his experience of a Kenshō (or moment of understanding) from which he took away a lesson that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RJq9LaZh9Kta3Reko/it-s-okay-instructions-focusing-experiencing-and-frames |
# Distinguishing logistic curves: visual
I [wrote a post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fRSf65CxthNMaLnCP/estimating-logistic-curves) about distinguishing between [logistic curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function), specifically for finding their turning points.
That post was highly mathematical; but... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7mftAXj4btgShG7Z9/distinguishing-logistic-curves-visual |
# Distinguishing logistic curves
$\newcommand{\FC}{F}\newcommand{\Fc}{f}\newcommand{\Fi}{F_{\infty,l,k}}\newcommand{\Ov}{O_{\vec{x}}^{\vec{y}}}$
This post will attempt to formalise the intuition that "it's hard to figure out the turning point of a logistic curve, at least until after that turning point". Ashort visual... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fRSf65CxthNMaLnCP/distinguishing-logistic-curves |
# Subspace optima
The term "global optimum" and "local optimum" have come from mathematical terminology and entered daily language. They are useful ways of thinking in every day life. Another useful concept, which I don't hear people talk about much is "**subspace optimum**": A point maximizes a function not in the wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yuP4D4Pz79uyPS9KW/subspace-optima |
# How should AIs update a prior over human preferences?
I've always emphasised the [constructive aspect of figuring out human preferences](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into), and [the desired formal properties of preference learning processes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbuwgyYG9WvtsErki/how-should-ais-update-a-prior-over-human-preferences |
# Craving, suffering, and predictive processing (three characteristics series)
_This is the third post of the "a non-mystical explanation of insight meditation and the three characteristics of existence_" _series._ _I originally intended this post to more closely connect no-self and unsatisfactoriness, but then decide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvXFBaThWrMsSjicD/craving-suffering-and-predictive-processing-three |
# The EMH Aten't Dead
_Cross-posting from [my personal blog](https://thedeepdish.org/efficient-market-hypothesis-is-not-dead/), but written primarily for Less Wrong after recent discussion here._
* * *
There are whispers that the [Efficient-Market Hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/utySCY9nJt9xGYGGQ/the-emh-aten-t-dead |
# Movable Housing for Scalable Cities
*First posted* [*on Steemit*](https://steemit.com/startup/@eliezeryudkowsky/movable-housing-for-scalable-cities) *on July 30, 2016.*
* * *
0: Summary.
-----------
The non-scalability of current major cities poses a challenge to economic growth; it is a burden that falls disprop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cmiRk9XtT9Psnd3Yr/movable-housing-for-scalable-cities |
# How to choose a PhD with AI Safety in mind
I'm about to begin doctoral studies in multiagent RL as applied to crowd simulation, but somewhere on the horizon, I see myself working on AI Safety-related topics. (I find the Value Alignment problem to be of particular interest)
Now, I'm asking myself the question - if m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pKiWGNK9JMLhqH4m/how-to-choose-a-phd-with-ai-safety-in-mind |
# Conjecture Workshop
The conjecture workshop is an activity I’ve run three times now in a conference/meetup-style setting. Feedback has been unusually positive, so I’m writing it up here to codify the basic idea and hopefully get independent feedback from others who try it.
The overall goal is to translate intuitive... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uDmiEvPtJnRcrbHB6/conjecture-workshop |
# Multi-agent safety
_Note: this post is most explicitly about safety in multi-agent training regimes. However, many of the arguments I make are also more broadly applicable - for example, when training a single agent in a complex environment, challenges arising from the environment could play an analogous role to cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BXMCgpktdiawT3K5v/multi-agent-safety |
# Making a Crowdaction platform
In 2017 Eliezer Yudkowsky [wrote](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/oLGCcbnvabyibnG9d):
> Coordination isn’t as simple as everyone jumping simultaneously every time one person shouts “Jump!” For coordinated action to be successful, you need to trust the institution that says what the action ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kwaBa3KqBeAo8WE4m/making-a-crowdaction-platform |
# What are your greatest one-shot life improvements?
Sometimes, people have life problems that can be entirely solved by doing one thing. (doing X made my life 0.1% better, PERMANENTLY!) These are not things like "This TAP made me exercise more frequently", but rather like "moving my scale into my doorway made me weig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PX7AdEkpuChKqrNoj/what-are-your-greatest-one-shot-life-improvements |
# Learning to build conviction
People sometimes tell me that they want to join a startup, so that they can learn how it works, and eventually start one themselves. I usually end up suggesting that they skip straight to step 2 and start one themselves.
Why is that? Isn’t it better to learn from someone else’s mistakes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8Jyb95Quqqd7LQXM6/learning-to-build-conviction |
# Outbuilding Thoughts
Behind our house there's a small building:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/shed-behind-house-big.jpg)
The previous owners had used it for storage, but it's in bad shape. There was a hole in the roof when we bought it, which has slowly been getting lar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tcgwQkdvRjQ9aD267/outbuilding-thoughts |
# Why you should minimax in two-player zero-sum games
_Disclaimer: I'm surely reinventing the wheel here._
Last week I [wrote](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRKyZGcoio9JhdmvX/book-report-theory-of-games-and-economic-behavior-von) that I was dissatisfied with von Neumann and Morgenstern's argument for playing the mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ukZuzb8JpYiFLoord/why-you-should-minimax-in-two-player-zero-sum-games |
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