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# Industrial literacy
I’ve said before that understanding where our modern standard of living comes from, at a basic level, is a [responsibility of every citizen](https://rootsofprogress.org/progress-studies-a-civic-duty) in an industrial civilization. Let’s call it “industrial literacy.”
Industrial literacy is under... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HKfBeWN8ufNdFgzG6/industrial-literacy |
# Learning how to learn
Introduction
------------
The skill of learning things fast and well is _phenomenally_ valuable. It serves as a force multiplier on almost everything you’ll do later in life, and I think it is worth invest a _ton_ of effort into cultivating and developing. Getting better at learning is one of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qLqyPMfc8epav72JF/learning-how-to-learn |
# [AN #119]: AI safety when agents are shaped by environments, not rewards
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kx7nv8dHtFig9ud7C/an-119-ai-safety-when-agents-are-shaped-by-environments-not |
# "Zero Sum" is a misnomer.
*This could have been a relatively short note about why "zero sum" is a misnomer, but I decided to elaborate some consequences. This post benefited from discussion with Sam Eisenstat.*
"Zero Sum" is a misnomer.
=========================
The term intuitively suggests that an interaction is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D8ds9idKWbwzCseCh/zero-sum-is-a-misnomer |
# AGI safety from first principles: Alignment
_Parts of this section were rewritten in mid-October._
In the previous section, I discussed the plausibility of ML-based agents developing the capability to seek influence for instrumental reasons. This would not be a problem if they do so only in the ways that are aligne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PvA2gFMAaHCHfMXrw/agi-safety-from-first-principles-alignment |
# Babble challenge: 50 ways of sending something to the moon
This is an exercise, and as such is a bit different from your ordinary question post...
**What? **
----------
**Come up with 50 ways of sending something to the moon. In less than 1 hour. **
I don’t care how stupid they are. My own list included “Slingsho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pDkZitYsJAwf8mHKJ/babble-challenge-50-ways-of-sending-something-to-the-moon |
# Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020.
## Highlights
- Red Cross and Red Crescent societies have been trying out [forecast based financing](https://www.forecast-based-financing.org/our-projects/what-can-go-wrong/), where funds are released before a potential disaster happens based on forecasts thereof.
- Andrew G... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W2woFuGED5rdfKk7L/forecasting-newsletter-september-2020 |
# Three car seats?
I recently was linked to [Car Seats as Contraception](https://privpapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665046), which argues that car seat laws have led to parents choosing to have fewer children because "physical limitations of many cars precludes the use of three car seats in the back seat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AgrxwzhkFWwbQrRuz/three-car-seats |
# Your Standards are Too High
Introduction
------------
I’m a perfectionist, and a pretty neurotic person, so a common experience for me is feeling **dissatisfied** and **guilty.** Some part of me is deeply convinced that everything should be _easy_, and _fast_. That if it’s not, I am failing. That I **could have don... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dDPfQrGwygHXAkcTb/your-standards-are-too-high |
# Words and Implications
> Professor Quirrell didn't care what your expression looked like, he cared which states of mind made it likely.
[\- HPMOR, Ch. 26](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/EBuZhwCrYuJGp7ax4/p/JtLGZMEysSbXLHJQj)
Words should not always be taken at face value. Presumably you know this. You probably have s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KbjWLGJogCZY4HNsr/words-and-implications |
# Covid 10/1: The Long Haul
If you were watching the so-called ‘presidential debate’ on Tuesday night, first off, you have my sympathies. It was the day after the Day of Atonement. If you watched, no matter what wrongs you may have committed this past year, and no matter who you intend to vote for, no one can deny tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uSSuHQvdg7mg5giu9/covid-10-1-the-long-haul |
# Hiring engineers and researchers to help align GPT-3
My team at OpenAI, which works on aligning GPT-3, is hiring ML engineers and researchers. **Apply** [**here**](https://jobs.lever.co/openai/98599d5b-2d1d-4127-b9b5-708343c8730b) **for the ML engineer role and** [**here**](https://jobs.lever.co/openai/24bd9cf4-fe95... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dJQo7xPn4TyGnKgeC/hiring-engineers-and-researchers-to-help-align-gpt-3 |
# Open & Welcome Thread – October 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are inv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2LtJ7xpxDS9Gu5NYq/open-and-welcome-thread-october-2020 |
# Sunday Meetup: Workshop on Online Surveys with Spencer Greenberg
Alternate title: "Geez LessWrong peeps do more empiricism please".
At this Sunday's LW meetup, special guest Spencer Greenberg will be running a workshop on how to run a psychology study using online tools.
The LessWrong community raises a lot of i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pF5939CSjCTMFDygM/sunday-meetup-workshop-on-online-surveys-with-spencer |
# A simple device for indoor air management
Note: I wrote this in much more of a hurry than I normally write things, because I have noticed that I get way too meticulous, so it takes forever and I eventually give up. I hope it is still readable/useful!
Like many of us living in the Bay Area and other parts of the Wes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GXa68MQeYAbyqhswE/a-simple-device-for-indoor-air-management |
# Math That Clicks: Look for Two-Way Correspondences
_Andrew Critch made this explicit to me._
Suppose you want to formalize "information". What does it mean to "gain information about something"?
You know about probability distributions, and you remember that Shannon came up with information theory, but you aren't... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lotih2o2pkR2aeusW/math-that-clicks-look-for-two-way-correspondences |
# Attention to snakes not fear of snakes: evolution encoding environmental knowledge in peripheral systems
[Sinking In: The Peripheral Baldwinisation of Human Cognition](https://www.cell.com/trends/cognitive-sciences/fulltext/S1364-6613(20)30214-X). Cecilia Heyes, Nick Chater & Dominic Michael Dwyer. _Trends in Cognit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bgqmv8YF6HA3mvrPM/attention-to-snakes-not-fear-of-snakes-evolution-encoding |
# Muting on Group Calls
Ben recently wrote a post with a lot of advice on how to have [better video calls](https://www.benkuhn.net/vc/), and reading the [HN discussion](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24610166) one of the [most](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24633001) [controversial](https://news.ycombinat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YJdx6GeAt5utXLRbw/muting-on-group-calls |
# AGI safety from first principles: Control
It’s important to note that my previous arguments by themselves do not imply that AGIs will end up in control of the world instead of us. As an analogy, scientific knowledge allows us to be much more capable than stone-age humans. Yet if dropped back in that time with just o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eGihD5jnD6LFzgDZA/agi-safety-from-first-principles-control |
# On Option Paralysis - The Thing You Actually Do
Introduction
------------
I recently encountered a problem in my life I found interesting. I noticed that I was fairly unfit, that my energy levels were lower than I wanted them to be, and so I was considering starting to exercise more as a solution to this. And I kne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zEMeih7FQacP9wprj/on-option-paralysis-the-thing-you-actually-do |
# Weird Things About Money
1\. Money wants to be linear, but wants even more to be logarithmic.
====================================================================
* People sometimes talk as if risk-aversion (or risk-loving) is irrational *in itself*. It is true that VNM-rationality implies you just take expected ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H2mPGJYWjrLM7rYXW/weird-things-about-money |
# Postmortem to Petrov Day, 2020
The first underwater test of an atom bomb, in the US at Bikini Atoll in the Pacific, July 24, 1946.
Also, the LessWrong.com Frontpage this Petrov Day.
We failed.
The ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KQnYogkFTKc9wpWjY/postmortem-to-petrov-day-2020 |
# Fishbowl reality
This idea is about perception and reality.
Each person is wearing a fishbowl over their head. Think of the mind as being two intelligent forces. The head is the (self believing) sentient consciousness. The one that receives the information that is projected onto the fishbowl. The other one seems ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNEPayABpiDDizYQs/fishbowl-reality |
# Public transmit metta
Metta, or loving-kindness meditation, involves picking a person and wishing them good things. In the same way as other kinds of concentration practice [condition your mind](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WYmmC3W6ZNhEgAmWG/a-mechanistic-model-of-meditation) by letting it notice how it feels goo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P2oWD9XLj7nPfz2yk/public-transmit-metta |
# AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services
Epistemic status: Quick and dirty. A surface level dive into a particular aspect of AI governance carried out over the course of one morning.
## Context
> The U.S. House Committee on Armed Services is a standing committee of the Unit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house |
# One hub, or many?
I was reading the comments to [The Rationalist Community's Location Problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FghubkDy6Dp6mnxk7/the-rationalist-community-s-location-problem) and especially this comment by [Damien Tatum](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FghubkDy6Dp6mnxk7/the-rationalist-community-s-lo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DXFEC7iPCcZgcWoyn/one-hub-or-many |
# AGI safety from first principles: Conclusion
Let’s recap the second species argument as originally laid out, along with the additional conclusions and clarifications from the rest of the report.
1. We’ll build AIs which are much more intelligent than humans; _that is, much better than humans at using generalisable... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ni8ocGupB2kGG2fA7/agi-safety-from-first-principles-conclusion |
# Rationality and Climate Change
My master thesis was on the subject of climate change and mass media attitude toward it. Working on it, I've read over 300 newspaper articles on the subject and studied a large number of papers regarding its consequences, its solutions, and the attempts to frame the debate over them, s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NuHtXhnMiAopFcpXo/rationality-and-climate-change |
# Universal Eudaimonia
The AI is here. And it's Friendly. But due to moral uncertainty, its value function prohibits any major intervention in existing human societies.
The AI's nanobots get to work. They replace the South Pacific garbage patch with a new continent--Eudaimonia, a [rat park](https://www.youtube.com/wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZsSCdNEC2aj6pmDL2/universal-eudaimonia |
# The Felt Sense: What, Why and How
While LW has seen previous discussion of [Focusing](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/focusing), I feel like there has been relatively limited discussion of *the felt sense* \- that is, the thing that Focusing is actually accessing.
Everyone accesses felt senses all the time, but most... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eccTPEonRe4BAvNpD/the-felt-sense-what-why-and-how |
# COVID Strategy 101
# Introduction:
Over the past six months of the COVID epidemic a sharp divide has emerged.
In one camp, most public health experts believe that the lockdowns in place are keeping us from unmitigated disaster and millions of deaths. In the other camp, a disparate group of scientists have argued t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5rujyv5T37CFkCcws/covid-strategy-101 |
# The Rise and Fall of American Growth: A summary
[*The Rise and Fall of American Growth*](https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton/dp/0691175802/?tag=jasocraw-20), by Robert J. Gordon, is like a murder mystery in which the murderer is never caught. Indeed there is no investigation, and perhaps no de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5DsAoqScaubvASF8f/the-rise-and-fall-of-american-growth-a-summary |
# Fermi Challenge: Trains and Air Cargo
Jacob ([Jacob](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jacobjacob)) and I are giving each other Fermi estimates to complete.
1. *From Ben:* How many miles of train tracks exist in the world?
2. *From Jacob:* How many metric tons of air freight cargo shipped globally in 2009, and in 2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LjfXcoegEoaFXsto9/fermi-challenge-trains-and-air-cargo |
# Large Effects Can't Prove Small Causes
Fast evidence assessment
========================
Recently I’ve been thinking a lot about how to assess evidence quickly. We usually don't have time to do a deep dive into everything we hear but there are quick intuitions which can be applied to get an idea of how much a piece... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QrnFbDDeHLTcTFtkj/large-effects-can-t-prove-small-causes |
# The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values
[*The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values*](https://www.amazon.com/Alignment-Problem-Machine-Learning-Values/dp/153669519X), by Brian Christian, was just released. This is an extended summary + opinion, a version without the quotes from the bo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gYfgWSxCpFdk2cZfE/the-alignment-problem-machine-learning-and-human-values |
# Forcing Freedom
Wretched Worlds
===============
You are a freshly recruited cadet in the Intergalactic Liberation Corps (ILC). With a handful of valiant companions, you will travel across the galaxy, helping to free oppressed Beta Species from the claws of their Alpha masters, and fighting slavery whenever it dares... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mXzgtnx587sA2ynzS/forcing-freedom |
# Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes?
Professional athletes are arguably the most publicly understood meritocracy around. There are public records of thousands of different attributes for each player. When athletes stop performing well, this is discussed at length by enthusiasts, and it'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4SsFMGaBx59wBA3Ej/can-we-hold-intellectuals-to-similar-public-standards-as |
# Buying micro-biostasis
**x-post**: [Buying micro-biostasis – LessDead](http://lessdead.com/buying-micro-biostasis)
**Created**: 2020-10-07 | **Updated**: 2020-10-07
**Help / Quality**: I’m publishing this post slightly unfinished because a friend of a friend might need this information today (or in the next few da... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X5sQ5NsFrq59MD8uX/buying-micro-biostasis |
# Brainstorming positive visions of AI
Context
-------
This is a place to explore visions of how AI can go really well. Conversations about AI (both in this community and disseminated by mainstream media) focus on dystopian scenarios and failure modes. Even communities that lean technoutopian (Silicon Valley) are ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBKaTxBQ6snox3sb3/brainstorming-positive-visions-of-ai |
# How worried are the relevant experts about a magnetic pole reversal?
[This article](https://www.businessinsider.com/earth-north-south-poles-flip-magnetic-field-2018-4) and many others like it describe a phenomenon where the Earth's magnetic poles occasionally switch directions. The key ideas seem to be:
1. Earth's... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JmcuPi9TQXM7xQ8jS/how-worried-are-the-relevant-experts-about-a-magnetic-pole |
# Open Communication in the Days of Malicious Online Actors
This article uses a thought experiment to probe at dangers of public online communication, then describes an ontology around “malicious supporters” and possible remedies.
It's arguably a more obvious fit for LW than the EA Forum, but I posted it there for re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YE4md9rNtpjbLGk22/open-communication-in-the-days-of-malicious-online-actors |
# Inaccessible finely tuned RNG in humans?
It was my impression that humans are bad at random (number) generation. Tell a person to arrange stars on a black canvas randomly, and they'll space them out more or less equidistantly and uniformly. If asked to generate a sequence of coin flips, we would avoid longer runs of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6xGC9P8wp2mi7uhti/inaccessible-finely-tuned-rng-in-humans |
# [AN #120]: Tracing the intellectual roots of AI and AI alignment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b9b4y2azGjthGBEFb/an-120-tracing-the-intellectual-roots-of-ai-and-ai-alignment |
# Review and Summary of 'Moral Uncertainty'
I just read the recently published '[Moral Uncertainty](https://www.moraluncertainty.com/)' by Will MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord. It's an excellent book with significant practical implications. As such, I originally intended to write a brief review — which balloo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DFcyufXDM6rPPEh3z/review-and-summary-of-moral-uncertainty |
# Lessons on Value of Information From Civ
I’m a big fan of the game [Civilization](https://civilization.com/). Civ is the canonical empire-building game: you explore the world, expand your empire, manage your economy, invade other empires, unlock new tech, etc. A few months ago, the game released “tech shuffle mode”,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9vx6osBMmuj7b6dtS/lessons-on-value-of-information-from-civ |
# Thoughts on ADHD
A few different things that have occurred while investigating. It seems weird to me there are lots of posts about akrasia and productivity but not adhd.
1\. High Rejection Sensitivity makes my attention in general more flinchy. Rather than just explicit rejection, you can think of this as a high se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AYk7myAMugFhPeg4H/thoughts-on-adhd |
# Sunday October 11th, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by Alex Zhu, Martin Sustrik and Steve Byrnes
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts). This time fully in Gather Town... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WnEgmx5pubN9YmbTN/sunday-october-11th-12-00pm-pt-talks-by-alex-zhu-martin |
# Political Lottery in Switzerland
[Sortition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortition), that is selection of political officials by lottery, was famously used in ancient Athenian democracy. It was also used, since XIV. century, in couple of city states in northern Italy.
A less well known fact is that it was also us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qEevzqd4u4BeWyhQz/political-lottery-in-switzerland |
# Babble challenge: 50 ways to escape a locked room
Once again, it is time to [become stronger](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger).
This week’s challenge: You find yourself in a locked, empty room. You only have the clothes on your body and a phone in your po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5LmFT5Ydhz36xyi2T/babble-challenge-50-ways-to-escape-a-locked-room |
# Upside decay - why some people never get lucky
*Note: This was originally published at* [*https://brianlui.dog/2020/10/06/upside-decay/.*](https://brianlui.dog/2020/10/06/upside-decay/.) *This concept is important because many people are self-interested, and this provides **a convincing self-interested reason for be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PWGztwrq8jb8JzTcy/upside-decay-why-some-people-never-get-lucky |
# Covid 10/8: October Surprise
Last week: [Covid 10/1: The Long Haul](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/10/01/covid-10-1-the-long-haul/)
As part of 2020’s continuing attempt to top itself, President Trump has Covid-19.
It is unclear whether it is more surprising that Trump got Covid-19 now, or that it took this lon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hmyye5GNyKw49gaFC/covid-10-8-october-surprise |
# Why isn't JS a popular language for deep learning?
I've just read this book, which introduces TensorFlow.js: [https://www.manning.com/books/deep-learning-with-javascript](https://www.manning.com/books/deep-learning-with-javascript)
Now I'm wondering why JS is so unpopular for deep learning, especially compared to P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Paukx26BGiv7nit7i/why-isn-t-js-a-popular-language-for-deep-learning |
# How to Price a Futures Contract
**All investments are risky. The techniques explained in this series are exceptionally risky. I am not a registered investor, attorney, advisor, broker, banker, lawyer, dealer or anything of the sort. All opinions expressed here are for my personal exploration. I present it to you for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7PBDGWf9Jbdj4rnx/how-to-price-a-futures-contract |
# Shouldn't there be a Chinese translation of Human Compatible?
Considering that China [seems pretty serious about investing heavily in AI in the near future](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/21/china-ai-world-leader-by-2030.html), it may be *kind of important* that Stuart Russel's work of AI alignment advocacy *Human Com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XCe8beWr8HjcZdi4q/shouldn-t-there-be-a-chinese-translation-of-human-compatible |
# The Darwin Game
~~Click here to participate. Entries must be submitted on October 18th, 2020 or earlier.~~
Entry is now closed.
---
In 2017, Zvi posted [an exciting story](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/GcZCMu7ZYHpJCh5bx) about The Darwin Game, a variation of iterated prisoner's dilemma.
I will run my own version ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AHTRyQJtiRin22kth/the-darwin-game-1 |
# If GPT-6 is human-level AGI but costs $200 per page of output, what would happen?
I'm imagining a scenario in which OpenAI etc. continue to scale up their language models, and eventually we get GPT-6, which has the following properties:
--It can predict random internet text better than the best humans
--It can ans... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kcWHfRnLMDDgsbJfd/if-gpt-6-is-human-level-agi-but-costs-usd200-per-page-of |
# The Treacherous Path to Rationality
Cross-posted, as always, [from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/10/08/path-to-reason/).
* * *
Rats v. Plague
--------------
The Rationality community was never particularly focused on medicine or epidemiology. And yet, we basically got everything about COVID-19 right a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YcdArE79SDxwWAuyF/the-treacherous-path-to-rationality |
# Dancing With Covid
The [Society of Stranders](http://www.shagdance.com/) puts on a [Shag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carolina_shag) (a regional Swing dance) [festival](http://www.shagdance.com/migration.htm) every fall in North Myrtle Beach SC. This year, with the pandemic, the organization made the hard but nece... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yFSAPonmQYzzbHMrJ/dancing-with-covid |
# How to reach 80% of your goals. Exactly 80%.
I use a simple but effective system to reach my goals. At the beginning of every day, week, and quarter I formulate my goals such that I believe I will have an 80% probability of achieving them. I note them down in an Excel sheet and track how many of them I reach before ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mD53vNoGXAfGwCqWu/how-to-reach-80-of-your-goals-exactly-80-1 |
# On Slack - Having room to be excited
Slack
-----
A few months ago, I came across a concept called **Slack**, and I have found this an increasingly valuable lens for understanding my life. Slack is, roughly, having **spare capacity** in my life. Not being pushed to my limits. Having downtime and room to explore. Bei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZTzFBu22heAQMNRzL/on-slack-having-room-to-be-excited |
# Philosophy of Therapy
For a lot of people, therapy can be a confusing, mysterious thing of questionable value. Many have tried it when they were younger, and felt that at best it was only of minimal help, while for others it actually made things worse. In many cultures, therapy looks very different from how it’s pra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xtzvtJBNofk4FPAtt/philosophy-of-therapy |
# Rule of Equal and Opposite Advice & Slack
References:
===========
Slack: [https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/09/30/slack/](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/09/30/slack/)
TL;DR Having a 20% buffer in your schedule to rest and handle anything urgent that pops up is the difference between a good life with time to ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pm6pALxgQFx45dBJq/rule-of-equal-and-opposite-advice-and-slack |
# Why Boston?
In college we had a set of signs we posted for common concepts. You might point at the sign that said "lexical semantics" as convenient way to indicate that a discussion had fallen into that particular trap, and we had signs for many circumstances. The sign with the largest impact, however, was "move to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B9E6HQgEb3PKuDaWW/why-boston |
# Charisma is a Force Multiplier
Sometimes, people talk about charisma as just a positive -- for instance, a lot of generic self-help or business advice assumes that charisma is generally good. On the other hand, you sometimes see people, often from "nerdier" communities, who say charisma is bad, an arbitary and unfai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ms2ePDvx6i6jsrdQ/charisma-is-a-force-multiplier |
# All Lesswrong Posts by Yudkowsky in one .epub
This .epub has been generated using [webpages-to-ebook](https://github.com/georgjaehnig/webpages-to-ebook). Thanks to [j0rges](https://www.reddit.com/user/j0rges) user from Reddit for compiling the urls. The book contains all Eliezer Yudkowsky's posts from Lesswrong sinc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMnWdJmaQrgAJ3dTK/all-lesswrong-posts-by-yudkowsky-in-one-epub |
# Everything I Know About Elite America I Learned From ‘Fresh Prince’ and ‘West Wing’
Rob Henderson is one of a few writers outside of the rationalist community that I follow obsessively, for his consistently high insight-to-length ratio, and his general writing style which appeals to me in some hard to articulate way... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ffyLt7eqG645LwWSt/everything-i-know-about-elite-america-i-learned-from-fresh |
# Msg Len
I'll be brief, omit needless words.
Intelligence is prediction is compression _because_
Compression is finding a code that makes the data shorter
And codeword lengths are probabilities
So codes are probability distributions
But probability distributions are prediction strategies. | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ex63DPisEjomutkCw/msg-len |
# How much to worry about the US election unrest?
Political tensions in the US are high. There have been a lot of mass protests in recent months, some of which have turned violent (often after police provocation). Donald Trump and Mike Pence have not to promise to respect the election result if they lose. Many on the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pyjr64dum2bM6KK7t/how-much-to-worry-about-the-us-election-unrest |
# The Sun Room
I'm walking to work with a large coffee in hand. It is cold, and I am happy.
Because I am in the sun room.
I bring a task onto my mental desk. Considerations, insights, possibilities start spilling from it immediately with no effort required.
I seem to have micro thoughts within larger ones. Little j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9fSyEYmSn2h3P5nAD/the-sun-room |
# Have the lockdowns been worth it?
There’s been a lot of discussion about whether the pandemic lockdowns have been worth it. However, much of the reasoning that we’ve seen has been very motivated and un-nuanced in a way that for us has distorted a lot of the information.
So this is not a thread for taking a position... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cFfZgN62AizXWf872/have-the-lockdowns-been-worth-it |
# The Achilles Heel Hypothesis for AI
Pitfalls for AI Systems via Decision Theoretic Adversaries
----------------------------------------------------------
This post accompanies a new [paper related to AI alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.05418). A brief outline and informal discussion of the ideas is presented h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o7eWu5Gzd82dw9dJS/the-achilles-heel-hypothesis-for-ai |
# A study on depression
_Content note: depression, suicide._
A friend I was discussing depression with linked me an article, "[Most anguish isn't an illness but an evolved response to anxiety](https://psyche.co/ideas/most-anguish-isnt-an-illness-but-an-evolved-response-to-adversity)". It turns out it's a condensed ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xSZKKjzLmtuqtjdAz/a-study-on-depression |
# A prior for technological discontinuities
## Introduction
I looked at 50 technologies taken from a Wikipedia list [History of technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:History_of_technology), which I expect to provide a mostly random list of technologies. Of these 50 technologies, I think that 19 have a di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities |
# What should experienced rationalists know?
The obvious answer is 'the sequences' but imo that is neither necessary nor sufficient. The Sequences are valuable but they are quite old at this point. They also run to over a million words (though Rationality AtZ is only ~600k). Here is a list of core skills and ideas:
1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RqxNZb5Ah97iS94z6/what-should-experienced-rationalists-know |
# Knowledge, manipulation, and free will
Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for co-developing this idea
On the 26th of September 1983, [Stanislav Petrov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov) observed the early warning satellites reporting the launch of five nuclear missiles towards the Soviet Union. He decided to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2dKvTYYN4PTT7g4of/knowledge-manipulation-and-free-will |
# Technology and its side effects
Progress is messy. On the whole, over the long run, the advance of technology and industry has improved life along almost every dimension. But when you zoom in to look at each step, you find that progress is full of complications.
Some examples:
* Intensive agriculture achieves hi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ra4PkLtDn8gnYtqcj/technology-and-its-side-effects |
# Toy Problem: Detective Story Alignment
Suppose I train some simple unsupervised topic model (e.g. [LDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_Dirichlet_allocation)) on a bunch of books. I look through the topics it learns, and find one corresponding to detective stories. The problem: I would like to use the identifie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4kYkYSKSALH4JaQ99/toy-problem-detective-story-alignment |
# The Solomonoff Prior is Malign
This argument came to my attention from [this post](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-actually-look-like/) by Paul Christiano. I also found [this clarification](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jP3vRbtvDtBtgvkeb/clarifying-consequentialists-in-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tr7tAyt5zZpdTwTQK/the-solomonoff-prior-is-malign |
# What is your electronic drawing set up?
I'm interested in drawing on a tablet. I'll put my specific criteria below, but I'd like this to be as broadly useful as possible, so I'm going to ask the questions in general first:
> What is your set up for electronic drawing? What tools do you use? What apps? What's your ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X53L2h2YWt9o54EwY/what-is-your-electronic-drawing-set-up |
# [AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxQtz3RP4qsqTkEwL/an-121-forecasting-transformative-ai-timelines-using |
# The Colliding Exponentials of AI
*Epistemic status: I have made many predictions for quantitative AI development this decade, these predictions were based on what I think is solid reasoning, and extrapolations from prior data.*
If people do not intuitively understand the timescales of exponential functions, then mu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QWuegBA9kGBv3xBFy/the-colliding-exponentials-of-ai |
# Is Stupidity Expanding? Some Hypotheses.
To be explained: **It feels to me that in recent years, people have gotten stupider, or that stupid has gotten bigger, or that the parts of people that were always stupid have gotten louder, or something like that.**
I’ve come up with a suite of hypotheses to explain this (w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BHqzGLNyQHjDXhEc8/is-stupidity-expanding-some-hypotheses |
# Babble challenge: 50 ways of hiding Einstein's pen for fifty years
Here we go again. Time to [become stronger](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger).
This week’s challenge:
The year is 1855. You’ve been given a pen that Albert Einstein will use in 1905 to pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wp8LFESomwoJ3MY4e/babble-challenge-50-ways-of-hiding-einstein-s-pen-for-fifty |
# Babble & Prune Thoughts
*This is an accounting of various thoughts I had when reading the* [*Babble & Prune*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pC6DYFLPMTCbEwH8W) *sequence.*
Encouraging Babble
==================
It is ironic, to me, that the [Babble & Prune](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pC6DYFLPMTCbEwH8W) sequence ends ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qC4B5sidX3ey5BG3h/babble-and-prune-thoughts |
# Evaluating expertise: a clear box model
Context
========
Purpose of expertise modelling
------------------------------
To get what we value we must make good decisions. To make these decisions we must know what relevant facts are true. But the world is so complex that we cannot check everything directly ourselves... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ibL9QnZZNnG6L83CL/evaluating-expertise-a-clear-box-model |
# Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over
Previously: [Covid 10/8: October Surprise](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/10/08/covid-10-8-october-surprise/)
Last week the President got Covid-19, so the post was all about details and timelines. This week, the President has tested negative multiple times and my town closed its pla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ev2A6e9uy5if4NcP/covid-10-15-playtime-is-over |
# Election Preparation
Historically, uncertainty about who is the rightful leader has often led to violence. While I think the most likely outcome for the coming election in the US is a peaceful transition from Trump to Biden, the range of possibilities is wide enough that it's worth making some preparations for worse... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xoQnfKuvkQTeEthD2/election-preparation |
# Moloch games
**tl;dr**: This post suggests a direction for modelling Molochs. The main thing this post does is to rename the concept of “[potential games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_game)” (an existing concept in game theory) to “Moloch games” to suggest an interpretation of this class of games. I also ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WTeHYgBSXTZPqtpxB/moloch-games |
# What are some beautiful, rationalist artworks?
So you can now drag-and-drop images into comments. (Thanks, LessWrong dev team!)
Hence, this post is an excuse to build a beautiful, inspiring, powerful — and primarily visual — comment section.
Let's celebrate all that is great about the Art of Rationality, with i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZGGGBR9sDgtLgMDaA/what-are-some-beautiful-rationalist-artworks |
# Things are allowed to be good and bad at the same time
I’ve found it useful to sometimes remind myself that things are allowed to be good _and_ bad at the same time.
Suppose that there was a particular job that I wanted but didn’t get. Afterwards, I find myself thinking:
“Damnit, some of the stuff in that job woul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uTwe7nAqiYQsnxv8t/things-are-allowed-to-be-good-and-bad-at-the-same-time |
# Sunday October 18, 12:00PM (PT) — Garden Party
This Sunday noon (12:00PM PT) we're having a party in the LessWrong Walled Garden.
It can always be Spring if we really want it to be.
This is a private... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTA5sS2Ezsq6SoXSN/sunday-october-18-12-00pm-pt-garden-party |
# Bet On Biden
At this point, for many tax situations, you cannot rationally believe both 'Nate Silver is credible' and 'I should not be betting on Biden'. If you have any trust in Nate you cannot think Biden is below ~80% to win. You can get 'Biden' for 65-66c on Predictit. Notably, there are several de facto copies ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y8RWtNBiksbSzm9j4/bet-on-biden |
# A tale from Communist China
Judging from the upvotes, it seems like people are quite interested in my grandparents' [failure](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2LtJ7xpxDS9Gu5NYq/open-and-welcome-thread-october-2020?commentId=JkQ3QzJ5vPKaxTpP3) to emigrate from Communist China before it was too late, so I thought I'd e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/osYFcQtxnRKB4F4HA/a-tale-from-communist-china |
# You have recovered from SARS-CoV-2. Now what?
[*October 2020 Edition*](https://jorgevelez.substack.com/p/you-have-recovered-from-sars-cov)
On October 15, I became one of the [~30 million confirmed cases](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) that has recovered from SARS-CoV-2. There is a great deal of comfort... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/afkKHZypPmqSedSqp/you-have-recovered-from-sars-cov-2-now-what |
# PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong
Previously about PredictIt this election cycle: [Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/09/14/free-money-at-predictit-2020-general-election/),
[Free Money at PredictIt?](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/09/26/free-mone... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bSKWSPM927oZZqN7f/predictit-presidential-market-is-increasingly-wrong |
# Retain flexibility with habits?
I've recently been using habits to increase my productivity.
However, I've noticed a downside. If I start the day off by failing
my morning routine (wake up early, exercise) the entire rest
of the day is wasted since I feel off track.
Before habits I was much more flexible.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HbA7eCuNxvFgEwaRx/retain-flexibility-with-habits |
# What posts do you want written?
I have many posts that I want written but do not have time to write and I suspect there are other people that feel similarly. [This post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tr7tAyt5zZpdTwTQK/the-solomonoff-prior-is-malign) on the Solomonoff prior was one example, until I got fed up and j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WuLxYmAQCigdR4spw/what-posts-do-you-want-written |
# Group debugging guidelines & thoughts
This post is a response [to the request](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WuLxYmAQCigdR4spw/what-posts-do-you-want-written?commentId=CxuGJPPabFKhrkCdk) for a post with a "thorough description of how to do pair debugging"; I'm also having this post double as a retrospective on my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NiCDyzK85hF8GLp4d/group-debugging-guidelines-and-thoughts |
# It's hard to use utility maximization to justify creating new sentient beings
Cedric and Bertrand want to see a movie. Bertrand wants to see *Muscled Duded Blow Stuff Up*. Cedric wants to see *Quiet Remembrances: Time as Allegory*. There's also *Middlebrow Space Fantasy*. They are rational but not selfish - they car... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GRnzwvedfuzGt7ALX/it-s-hard-to-use-utility-maximization-to-justify-creating |
# As a Washed Up Former Data Scientist and Machine Learning Researcher What Direction Should I Go In Now?
Some background, I was interested in AI before the hype, back when neural networks were just an impractical curiosity in our textbooks. I went through an undergrad in Cognitive Science and decided that there was ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cFS4aP5796gub4F5W/as-a-washed-up-former-data-scientist-and-machine-learning |
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