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72dbd082-e06b-4811-b83e-f3c931f37b8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for reductionism help
I have read the sequences on reductionism and quantum physics some time ago now and I was hoping for some help finding the right places to go back and re-read there to address a question. If the way I describe my question reveals other ignorance on my part, please feel free to add comment... |
1bf2bc81-ccdf-4c3b-8872-813afed5416e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Argument from Philosophical Difficulty
(I'm reposting [this comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbcWQCxKWn3y49bNB/disentangling-arguments-for-the-importance-of-ai-safety#daD7JREPtx2WDe2Wf) as a top-level post, for ease of future reference. The [context](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JbcWQCxKWn3y49bNB/disent... |
fdb6f02e-d0f1-47fc-93d2-5475dc023789 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Three Oracle designs
An initial draft looking at three ways of getting information out of Oracles, information that's useful and safe - in theory.
One thing I may need to do, is find slightly better names for them ^\_^
[Good and safe uses of AI Oracles](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/23843264/Permanent/Using_... |
efffe1ea-5b59-414c-99f7-18005ade8201 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | XLNet: Generalized Autoregressive Pretraining for Language Understanding
1 Introduction
---------------
Unsupervised representation learning has been highly successful in the domain of natural language processing [dai2015semi](#bib.bib7) ; [mccann2017learned](#bib.bib19) ; [peters2018deep](#bib.bib24) ; [radford201... |
0052efcd-0bcf-4bf7-a986-d50b95b89b35 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | August 2019 Newsletter
#### Updates
* MIRI research associate Stuart Armstrong is offering $1000 for [good questions to ask an Oracle AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai).
* Recent AI safety posts from Stuart: [Indifference: Multiple Change... |
8f2c690e-c6e2-40dd-add3-82b5ef1757de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Broadly human level, cognitively complete AGI
There is a growing? fraction of people who consider LLMs to be AGI. And it makes sense. Clearly, when the term AGI was established this was what was meant: A machine that can tackle a wide range of problems, communicate with natural language, very different from all the ex... |
64c74bee-775c-4d8d-87bc-612a796786ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two Hot Takes about Quine
I read Quine's Word and Object on vacation last week. Overall it was fine, but there were two things that might be worth quick mentions.
Quine, Supervised Learning Supremacist
One important facet of the book is Quine's picture of how humans learn language. It's not quite that Quine is a beh... |
7fc5b4b2-598b-40d3-96f9-fac2d784ff3f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What confusions do people have about simulacrum levels?
I've noticed comments to effect of "simulacrum levels seem very confusing". Personally, simulacrum levels seem fairly obvious-in-retrospect and self-expanatory to me, based on a handful of explanations and examples from Benquo and Zvi's posts. I'm not sure whethe... |
bbdef594-cbf1-4cb7-9f41-c871b7cf9101 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Imaginary reenactment to heal trauma – how and when does it work?
Some therapies involve various forms of imaginary reenactment, where you heal a trauma by first recalling the memory of it and then imagining how things could have gone differently. Sometimes the imagined alternative can be quite fantastical in nature, ... |
ef5217c8-3309-444c-8fa1-8ea273b9e717 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Real-time voice translation
Objective
* Translate Alice's voice for Bob to hear in Bob's language. Translate Bob's voice for Alice to hear in Alice's language.
* Neither person should hear translation of their own voice.
* Alice and Bob could be in the same room physically or in different rooms.
* Neither person ... |
e363507c-c83f-41c4-a827-a3ea0f083e6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Shorts 3/23
Aesthetics
My recommendation of the month is this story from the art world. It’s a pretty simple story.
1. Artist A posts photo of his living room
2. Artist B makes a painting, almost exactly matching the photo. The only change is to remove a poster in the background. It’s as close a recreation... |
b5a6f31f-8e3a-42b7-9317-dd17ac57dd00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List a few posts in Main and/or Discussion which actually made you change your mind
To quote the front page
> Less Wrong users aim to develop accurate predictive models of the world, and change their mind when they find evidence disconfirming those models, instead of being able to explain anything.
So, by that logi... |
ab5f430b-d855-42e8-bfe9-aa9701eb41a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Costs and Benefits of Scholarship
Scholarship is excellent, but it is also expensive. It takes a long time to catch up to the state of the art, even for a narrow subject.
I recently read 90% of the literature on machine ethics, a recent and small field of inquiry, and it took me about 40 hours to find all the literat... |
e1b429e9-d9a2-4170-b338-d5c17c3a8d9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Ethics for the AI Age
The rapid progress of AI has exposed a problem we’ve been avoiding: our environment is becoming increasingly alien. It takes on new shapes with increasing speed and renders our past frameworks obsolete. The world becomes opaque and its logic unclear and our agency starts to dissolve with it.... |
3019018c-ebca-44fd-8171-073da7e572e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Further discussion of CFAR’s focus on AI safety, and the good things folks wanted from “cause neutrality”
Follow-up to:
* CFAR's new focus, and AI safety
* CFAR's new mission statement (link post; links to our website).
In the days since we published our previous post, a number of people have come up to me and exp... |
1d102136-bf02-4003-add8-069d7a1373eb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The dangers in algorithms learning humans' values and irrationalities
I Introduction
---------------
Algorithms are becoming more powerful, and might in future become so powerful that they form superintelligences [[1](#bib.bib1)], the goals of which would determine the course of human civilisation. Even those AIs t... |
41a2ce05-c485-4580-829f-2f552e9c1fd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Focusing," for skeptics.
Gendlin’s Focusing technique is super rad. I know this because everybody keeps telling me so.
(Okay, not quite everybody, but a really tediously large percentage of the people in my online social circle.)
But I’ve tried it a bunch of times, in a bunch of variants, with a bunch of qualified ... |
088db4be-1b98-4d84-b233-f88703b8dd7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What’s this probability you’re reporting?
It’s unclear what people mean when saying they’re reporting a probability according to their inside view model(s). We’ll look through what this could mean and why most interpretations are problematic. Note that we’re not making claims about which communication norms are social... |
517bbae7-170f-4941-85cb-b8003860f721 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Alan Fern – Toward Recognizing and Explaining Uncertainty – CSRBAI 2016
so welcome back so I'm now please send
introduce Professor Alan fern who's
going to be presenting his joint work
with Professor Tom do direct Alan ferns
the professor and the associate head of
research at the School of Engineering
computer science... |
a48d7057-a712-4fba-b3f3-fc7f586ddf1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Spot Check: The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance
Epistemic spot checks typically consist of references from a book, selected by my interest level, checked against either the book’s source or my own research. This one is a little different that I’m focusing on a single para... |
52b1be4e-dc3e-4ffd-9855-3357293684f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | General purpose intelligence: arguing the Orthogonality thesis
Note: informally, the point of this paper is to argue against the instinctive "if the AI were so smart, it would figure out the right morality and everything will be fine." It is targeted mainly at philosophers, not at AI programmers. The paper succeeds if... |
6d60de9c-0afc-493e-828a-70ec48a4e4c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | GovAI Webinars on the Governance and Economics of AI
The Centre for the Governance of AI at the Future of Humanity Institute will start hosting webinars, on the Governance and Economics of AI. Our first session on Wednesday, May 20th, 1700-1815 BST (0900-1015 PT, 1200-1315 ET), featuring Daron Acemoğlu, Diane Coyle, a... |
a03d6e4c-717d-4caf-ab4f-edc697c66fe4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why must plausibilities be represented using real numbers?
Professor Jaynes writes:
Page 17 of his bookPage 656 of his book
Why must degrees of plausibility be represented using real numbers when there are alternative number systems, which don’t have 1-to-1 correspondence to the reals, that satisfy transitivity and u... |
651335b5-7e4a-436a-9109-e08a9db8b72f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions for Moral Realists
My meta-ethics are basically that of Luke's [Pluralistic Moral Reductionism](http://lesswrong.com/lw/5u2/pluralistic_moral_reductionism/). You can see details on my blog series, starting with ["The Meaning of Morality"](http://www.greatplay.net/essays/the-meaning-of-morality).
However... |
fa307b4e-f923-4197-a9a5-96d2ac8d459d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Event] Weekly Alignment Research Coffee Time
Just like every Monday now, researchers in AI Alignment are invited for a coffee time, to talk about their research and what they're into.
Here is the link.
And here is the everytimezone time (what matters is the hour, I don't change the day anymore).
Note that the lin... |
eec7833e-4315-4ce3-845a-d8b6ed92d497 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Valence Need Not Be Bounded; Utility Need Not Synthesize
As I relayed in my last post, in "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior", von Neumann and Morgenstern defended the validity of using utility to predict economic outcomes despite the fact that cross-individual utility cannot apparently be measured or apprehended ... |
36f10281-e170-4bcb-84e1-62df535b3681 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Response
Apotheosis, Home, Works
----------------------------------------
Part V
Everyone has their own name for it.
"The Multi-Dimensional Crisis Revolution", "The Precipice", "Collapse", "The Most Important Century", "The Meta Crisis", "The Weirdening", "Planetary Scale Vibe Collapse".
Many just call it "Modern... |
34426520-cac3-471f-abf4-8da8e48edd45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Systems that cannot be unsafe cannot be safe
Epistemic Status: Trying to clarify a confusion people outside of the AI safety community seem to have about what safety means for AI systems.
In engineering and design, there is a process that includes, among other stages, specification, creation, verification and validat... |
3574a35f-87bd-4bd6-8233-1369cff09f40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Website usability] Scroll to new comments (v0.3)
I wrote a short userscript1 that allows for jumping to the next (or previous) new comment in a page (those marked with green). I have tested it on Firefox nightly with the Greasemonkey addon and Chromium. Unfortunately, I think that user scripts only work in Chromium/G... |
eb9fab2d-e0a9-432e-900e-71f0d44ede19 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Attainable Utility Landscape: How The World Is Changed
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-spac... |
1b2f37c3-f7a5-442f-a1dc-74ddc4a15e0d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AGI Safety Fundamentals curriculum and application
Over the last year EA Cambridge has been designing and running an online program aimed at effectively introducing the field of AGI safety; the most recent cohort included around 150 participants and 25 facilitators from around the world. Dewi Erwan runs the program; I... |
ac383f10-cb08-4183-9fea-cf56f427209d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA Dinner Covid Logistics
Yesterday we hosted an EA dinner, the first largeish (~22 people) gathering inside our house since before the pandemic. It went well, and it was really good to see people. I wanted to write a bit about what sort of precautions we took for covid.
* Open window in the main area with a fan p... |
7c7e0c05-693c-49a6-a87c-4ab7214f50ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Refining the Sharp Left Turn threat model
*(Coauthored with others on the alignment team and cross-posted from the alignment forum: [part 1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/usKXS5jGDzjwqv3FJ/refining-the-sharp-left-turn-threat-model), [part 2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dfXwJh4X5aAcS8gF5/refining-the-sharp-left-t... |
23c244b0-5442-4273-8b1c-4b1154039b36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Intro to Rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Intro to Rationality
WHEN: 05 June 2016 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
x-posted from the lesswrong-dc Google Group. Meetup location is in the courtyard on the first floor, on the other side of an informa... |
d7387262-d475-4a6b-903b-a2fc0763b765 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Six Small Cohabitive Games
Previously: Competitive, Cooperative, and Cohabitive, Cohabitive Games So Far, Optimal Weave: A Prototype Cohabitive Game.
I like tinkering with game mechanics, and the idea of cohabitive games is an itch I keep trying to scratch. Here's six simple games I made over the last year or two as ... |
6b3b6616-6399-4de8-ab9a-065531459cfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | But what kinds of puppets are we?
Crossposted from world spirit sock puppet.
I watched The Social Dilemma last night. I took the problem that it warned of to be the following:
1. Social media and similar online services make their money by selling your attention to advertisers
2. These companies put vast optimizat... |
dd4d065c-7e95-441e-8212-ca45256f3e06 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT-4 developer livestream
The detailed analysis of the screenshot and the interpretation of chicken scratch to a working website were both extremely impressive. As a human I found the hand drawing hard to read. I do not know how it was able to determine this was a "discord UI window", what did they train it on?
... |
ed02b590-3eb3-450c-a546-9500e3121653 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Montpellier: Tentative first meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Montpellier: Tentative first meetup
WHEN: 03 January 2013 03:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Bagel House, 6 Rue Loys, Montpellier, France
I'm going to be in Montpellier for the holidays and I noticed that there isn't a single LW group in France.... |
b5402024-2b50-4a89-a964-3a8dbe6467f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on April 29th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Nairobi mini-Meetup #1: Double Crux: 30 April 2016 03:34PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Balti... |
321acebd-c5b5-487a-82ea-ccb502a3d8af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do you think would be the best investment policy for a cryonics trust?
Assume this policy will be followed by someone else, potentially for centuries, unless your cryonics revival timeline is shorter.
You can answer differently for different trusts; notably:
1. Trust with the goal of maintaining a patient in s... |
855d6202-28bf-441b-a474-e5708f2e3a02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A small improvement to Wikipedia page on Pareto Efficiency
Note: I would have done this as a Quick Take, but it doesn't allow images.
In the spirit of How I got 4.2M YouTube views without making a single video, I improved a diagram on the wikipedia page for Pareto Efficiency.
ORIGINAL VERSION
NEW VERSION
Based ... |
13a9ddd1-1c63-45b7-8e29-fe0e3c31a388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong virtual meetup this Saturday evening
Several months ago jwhendy called for people who can't make it to regular LW meetups (or just can't get enough of the LW crowd) to meet online instead. Several months later, a small number of us still do, on a near-weekly basis. We socialise, teach each other about our fi... |
b80cc633-1c02-4264-9032-1c64d4e88c8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Now here's why I'm punching you..."
Related: be nice, at least until you can coordinate meanness.
A premise of this post is that punching people is sometimes better than the alternatives.
I mean that literally, but mostly metaphorically. Things I take as metaphorical punching include name calling, writing angry twe... |
8eee6d14-bcfd-4e0a-9fa8-25f4629b32c0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Stuart Russell and Melanie Mitchell on Munk Debates
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant.*
*Epistemic status: Reflections on a debate about AI.*
---
Earlier this year, The Munk Debates podcast organized a [debate between Stuart Russell and Melanie Mitchell](https://www.ihea... |
81957ef0-7e79-4235-bf92-14491300c164 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence
I Short-term Research Priorities
---------------------------------
###
i.1 Optimizing AI’s Economic Impact
The successes of industrial applications of AI, from manufacturing to information services, demonstrate a growing impact on the economy... |
c8f5efdd-1b23-4270-9c43-4d7e2658d63a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Beyond Fine-Tuning: Transferring Behavior in Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
 [Erik DeBenedictis](http://debenedictis.org/erik/) works for Sandia’s Advanced Device Technologies department. He has been a member of the [International Technology Roadmap for Se... |
6d7a14f6-1738-46a2-876c-0d8c2ed69f88 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Integrating Human Observer Inferences into Robot Motion Planning
Integrating Human Observer Inferences
into Robot Motion Planning
Anca Dragan and Siddhartha Srinivasa
The Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University
{adragan,siddh}@cs.cmu.edu
Abstract —Our goal is to enable robots to produce mo-
tion that is suitabl... |
f3e6cdf4-3cb9-47e8-8c73-f8c6a776434a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Guilt, Shame, and Depravity
Everyone knows what it is to be tempted. You are a member of some community, the members of which have some expectations of each other. You might generally intend to satisfy these expectations, but through a failure of foresight, or some other sort of bad luck, feel an acute impulse to co... |
7db946ae-d2a3-48b1-b3db-61ffe057a035 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Publication on formalizing preference utilitarianism in physical world models
About a year ago I asked for help with a paper on a formalization of preference utilitarianism in cellular automata. The paper has now been published in the Springer journal Synthese and is available here. I wonder what you think about it an... |
faf35804-beda-4fe6-afff-4a215436301e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: Utilitarianism, Good Judgement Project, Order team meeting, rational games
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: Utilitarianism, Good Judgement Project, Order team meeting, rational games
WHEN: 05 June 2016 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Bolshaya Dorogomilovskaya ul., 5к2
Note: most our members jo... |
533c17b3-c3f9-4a10-b902-8b201466b2c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Describe the ways you can hear/see/feel yourself think.
To avoid constantly generalizing from one example when it comes to human thought, I think we need a survey of the ways people can reflect on their thought process, as subset of the ways people can think.
Before having heard of the Francis Galton's study on the i... |
196e092d-78ac-4de4-ba5c-0ef261ffb151 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge is not just precipitation of action
Knowledge is not just precipitation of action
Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome financial support to make further posts like this possible.
Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.
----------------------------------------
This post is part... |
d2ec796f-8ef2-4086-9491-0872eb3fa3fc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #44
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of al... |
34ff4e34-16be-44ba-9a61-be7c4eeccd09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI’s Alignment Plan is not S.M.A.R.T.
In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's challenge, I will show how the alignment research approach outlined by OpenAI lacks common desiderata for effective plans. Most of the deficiencies appear to be difficult or impossible to fix, and we should thus expect the plan to fail.
Meta... |
fe8e537e-19f0-417b-93d6-38fe1fcf5fba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reducing Variance in Temporal-Difference Value Estimation via Ensemble of Deep Networks.
1 Introduction
---------------
Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) with deep learning has proven successful at achieving master-level performance in many sequential decision making problems (Silver et al., [2016](#bib.bib42)... |
51887a6b-b6a2-49f9-8a24-0a3350a93739 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nook Nature
Style of post: Alexanderian meander (though with (at best) a tenth of the artistry and thoroughness/rigor). There's a Thing here and it has been tickling at my brain for ages and I have despaired of being able to clarify it all on my own, so I'm giving you my unclarified thoughts instead. More of an extend... |
7a28ba7a-312e-4a08-acbe-2193b53d41c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reliably wrong
Discussion of a book by "Dow Jones 36,000" Glassman". I'm wondering whether there are pundits who are so often wrong that their predictions are reliable indicators that something else (ideally the opposite) will happen. |
d2af51ea-5d4a-4d94-903c-553597ee0401 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Get your tickets to Manifest 2024 by May 13th!
What is Manifest?
Manifest is a festival for predictions, markets, and mechanisms. It’ll feature serious talks, attendee-run workshops, fun side events, and so many of our favorite people!
Tickets: manifest.is/#tickets
WHEN: June 7-9, 2024, with LessOnline starting May ... |
8ba0c677-efa0-4fc5-967f-b06b23c636d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [POLITICS] Jihadism and a new kind of existential threat
Politics is the mind-killer. Politics IS really the mind-killer. Please meditate on this until politics flows over you like butter on hot teflon, and your neurons stops fibrillating and resume their normal operations.
Preface
I've always found silly that LW, o... |
1b993aed-a05b-41db-ad85-f84a492dd726 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SUGGEST and VOTE: Posts We Want to Read on Less Wrong
Less Wrong is a large community of very smart people with a wide spectrum of expertise, and I think relatively little of that value has been tapped.
Like my post The Best Textbooks on Every Subject, this is meant to be a community-driven post. The first goal is to... |
c2194d47-0904-4dfd-b130-f667336f6499 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Probability is Real, and Value is Complex
(This post idea is due entirely to Scott Garrabrant, but it has been several years and he hasn't written it up.)
In 2009, [Vladimir Nesov observed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kYgWmKJnqq8QkbjFj/bayesian-utility-representing-preference-by-probability) that probability can ... |
517ab509-d384-498a-a3df-5677cd53f138 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alcohol, health, and the ruthless logic of the Asian flush
Say you're an evil scientist. One day at work you discover a protein that crosses the blood-brain barrier and causes crippling migraine headaches if someone's attention drifts while driving. Despite being evil, you're a loving parent with a kid learning to dri... |
10c279f5-ccd4-4b38-90c2-4bd5666b0472 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Two Principles For Topia
(edit: this post is *sort of* superceded by [∀V](%E2%88%80V.html))
Two Principles For Topia
------------------------
the more i think about it, the less i think the solution to [Moloch](https://web.archive.org/web/20140730043944/http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/) ... |
0decbf69-6629-41df-9e85-13444b775552 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doom doubts - is inner alignment a likely problem?
After reading Eliezer's list of lethalities, I have doubts (hopes?) that some of the challenges he mentions will occur.
Let's start with inner alignment. Let's think step by step. 😁
1. Inner alignment is a new name for a long-known challenge of many systems. Wheth... |
edafb666-0235-4db2-b5e9-c14ab4e817e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What happens if you present 500 people with an argument that AI is risky?
Recently, Nathan Young and I wrote about arguments for AI risk and put them on the AI Impacts wiki. In the process, we ran a casual little survey of the American public regarding how they feel about the arguments, initially (if I recall) just be... |
2b246402-dd60-450d-83ea-69ebdf080669 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some clarifications concerning my "many weak arguments" post
I put substantial of effort into making my post Many Weak Arguments vs. One Relatively Strong Argument as clear as possible, but as Luke said:
> This is a messy subject, and one that's difficult write about, and I appreciate you tackling the topic. I think ... |
31ea5c44-5073-42c7-90d0-4c3b8b21f0e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help Understanding Preferences And Evil
I’m having a problem understanding why Stuart Russell thinks that AI learning human preferences is a good idea. I think it’s a bad idea. I assume I am wrong but I assume I don’t understand something. So, help me out here please. I’m not looking for an argument but rather to unde... |
c829ae60-331c-4840-ad22-ea3b7c809ca5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimality is the tiger, and agents are its teeth
You've done it. You've built the machine.
You've read the AI safety arguments and you aren't stupid, so you've made sure you've mitigated all the reasons people are worried your system could be dangerous, but it wasn't so hard to do. AI safety seems a tractable concer... |
86d9e4f4-23a7-4a80-8a17-e6c81739f0f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna - Superintelligence
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna - Superintelligence
WHEN: 27 September 2014 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24/2, 1220 Wien, meeting room behind the building
location: When arriving by U2 or Schnellbahn train: take the... |
4224530e-99f7-471e-9b20-a6040c9da2f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes August 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quote yo... |
b6711154-b523-4d83-93cc-bd2a750e3cc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sources of evidence in Alignment
Summary: A short epistemological study to discover which sources of evidence can inform our predictions of action-relevant quantities in alignment.
This post follows Quantitative cruxes, although reading that first is mostly not required. Work done during my last two weeks of SERI MAT... |
fc422212-a251-41de-b8c6-df353183bae3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predictors as Agents
[UPDATE: I have concluded that the argument in this post is wrong. In particular, consider a generative model. Say the generative model has a choice between two possible 'fixed point' predictions A and B, and currently assigns A 70% probability and B 30% probability. Then the target distribution i... |
e63a9e71-2bbc-4b39-b862-27a4eda91e6e | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post2278
[Epistemic status: brainstorming, still somewhat confused, with a bunch of loose threads left.] This post is essentially the summary of a long discussion on the EleutherAI discord about trying to exhibit gradient hacking in real models by hand crafting an example. The discussion was sparked by this post .... |
f56c1b12-3ca1-416e-8785-a2b6077103a9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | AISC5: Research Summaries
### Modularity Loss Function
**Team members:** Logan Smith, Viktor Rehnberg, Vlado Baca, Philip Blagoveschensky, Viktor Petukhov
**External collaborators:** Gurkenglas
Making neural networks (NNs) more modular may improve their interpretability. If we cluster neurons or weights togeth... |
df3b8a79-a3f5-4297-aa36-c12694c905ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Changed My Mind Today - Canned Laughter
If we had topic-headings here, I'd be suggesting a new one: I changed my mind today.
Being rational is all about chainging your mind, right? It's about re-assessing in the face of some new evidence. About examining the difference between your assumptions and the world itself.... |
8c787a66-8761-4462-8aef-dcc90426b3d3 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "This post is an exercise in "identifying with the algorithm." I'm a big fan of the probabilistic method and randomized algorithms, so my biases will show.How do human beings produce knowledge? When we describe rational thought processes, we tend to think of them as essentially deterministic, deliberate, and algorithmi... |
98956079-1dbd-41c2-bbff-d0a3e2781ec9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The ganch gamble
[Translated from Yu. V. Pukhnatchov, Yu. P. Popov. *Mathematics without formulae*. - Moscow. - 'Stoletie'. - 1995. - pp. 404-405. All mistakes are my own.]
The East is famous for her legends... They say that once upon a time, in a certain town, there lived two well-known carvers of ganch (alabaster t... |
effca19a-7789-4fe4-a989-066ef0a92711 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coronavirus Virology: A Beginner’s Guide
Introduction
This is aimed at those interested in a biological understanding of the basic features of a coronavirus, but who do not have a biological/chemical background to speak of—if you haven’t done biology or chemistry since high school, this should be for you. It starts at... |
3c179bd8-1c70-44b2-96cc-00e818e5ac20 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AI
Summary
=======
* We are a new research organization working on **investigating trends in Machine Learning** and **forecasting the development of Transformative Artificial Intelligence**
* This work is done in close collaboration wi... |
405ef2e4-de20-4ed1-b584-0df974ffc859 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Representer Point Selection for Explaining Deep Neural Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
As machine learning systems start to be more widely used, we are starting to care not just about the accuracy and speed of the predictions, but also why it made its specific predictions. While we need not always care abou... |
e4c33710-6b0d-4d86-b548-7c1062bea73e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #14
I've created a public database of almost all of the papers I've summarized in the Alignment Newsletter! Most of the entries will have all of the data I put in the emails.
Highlights
One-Shot Imitation from Watching Videos (Tianhe Yu and Chelsea Finn): Can we get a robot to learn a task by wa... |
845e6a26-c42b-4b08-a12c-87f33af12d3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help CFAR Take Manhattan
CFAR is coming to New York City at the beginning of November for our first full-scale workshop outside the Bay Area. And we need your help to run it smoothly.
We're looking for volunteers in the tri-state area who can help us carry out all the behind the scenes logistics that keep our worksh... |
e411ce62-6422-4031-bd6b-76aac41a387e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Updates and Lessons from AI Forecasting
Earlier this year, my research group [commissioned 6 questions](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=JSAI&ref=bounded-regret.ghost.io) for professional forecasters to predict about AI. Broadly speaking, 2 were on geopolitical aspects of AI and 4 were on ... |
d11da20a-9baf-48fd-aa0a-90166ae0a119 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Agential Risks: A Comprehensive Introduction
31 A peer-reviewed electronic journal published by the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies ISSN 1541-0099 26(2) – August 2016 Agential Risks: A Comprehensive Introduction Phil Torres X-Risks Institute philosophytorres@gmail.com Journal of Evolution and Technology... |
c8a3336a-a0ee-40f8-9fed-a6c535ef474e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Era Of Unlimited Everything: Unlimited Materials & Unlimited Money
This essay was originally published on my website.
Ask yourself these questions:
1. Sitting in your home, looking around, what do you see??
2. How did you buy those things?
Many of the things you’re surrounded by are probably made of plasti... |
f6bad00b-86f8-4e70-9d37-777069f59d5d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Alternative Futures: Scenario Mapping Artificial Intelligence Risk - Request for Participation (*Closed*)
**Overview: AI Futures Risk Model**
===================================
**Summary**: I am a graduate student researching artificial intelligence (AI) risk and typology classifications that could result from v... |
93ca8f74-6fed-43ea-919a-d549d548383a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computer Programs Rig Elections
I don't know how interested this community would be in this topic, I don't mean to be talking politics so much as technology and decision mechanisms.
According to this programmer's testimony, voting machine companies requested that their programmers make it possible for the companies t... |
00de9530-431a-4d81-8f11-f2fb617babdc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin
WHEN: 06 March 2013 07:30:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: near U Leinestr., Berlin
It's the first meetup at John's place! Check the mailing list for the exact location and details.
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin |
88e2e459-763d-4ca4-9d36-c6dc7fac24a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Testing The Natural Abstraction Hypothesis: Project Intro
The natural abstraction hypothesis says that
* Our physical world abstracts well: for most systems, the information relevant “far away” from the system (in various senses) is much lower-dimensional than the system itself. These low-dimensional summaries are e... |
ba9285d9-a948-4d2e-bcf6-6d4f2b4c8d7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #42: The Wrong Answer
With the year ending and my first Vox post coming out, this week was a natural time to take stock. I wrote my first best-of post in a long time and laid out my plans for my 501c(3).
It was also another eventful week. We got a lot more clarity on the OpenAI situation, although no key new devel... |
e59c4393-9bda-47d6-90e6-7a6e3948ecea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050
The Cold War is over. Russia is a fading power. The most important geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century is between China and the USA. Any analysis of the conflict must take into account the possibility that it escalates into a hot war. This po... |
ab106b29-4c5a-4421-8e20-60a0c5debba9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction
This is joint work by Vanessa Kosoy and Alexander "Diffractor" Appel. For the proofs, see 1 and 2.
TLDR: We present a new formal decision theory that realizes naturalized induction. Our agents reason in terms of infra-Bayesian hypotheses, the domain... |
0b6d2c7a-956e-43f5-87c6-5291f671d508 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geneva
Published on September 13, 2023.
Geneva is evil.
It's overpriced, loud, and dirty. Paying ten francs for a medicore street taco is no way to live life. God forbid you visit the city center during the day, and stay as far away from Geneva station as you can. I thought the air was supposed to be good in the Alp... |
9068873b-29e7-445b-8fbb-5d1734b5fbd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Policy Proposal
(Crosspost of https://phoropter.substack.com/p/a-policy-proposal)
TL;DR: I think that the features used by recommendation systems should be configurable by end users receiving recommendations, and that this ability should be enforced by policy. Just as the GDPR protects a user's ability to choose wh... |
6316791b-3843-4530-a6e4-18c09377bdf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A compendium of conundrums
Logic puzzles
None of the puzzles below have trick answers - they can all be solved using logic and a bit of maths. Whenever a group of people need to achieve a task, assume they're allowed to confer and come up with a strategy beforehand. They're listed roughly in order of difficulty. Let... |
83be8f28-3f72-4984-9f2f-a73e62fff4c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Concrete empirical research projects in mechanistic anomaly detection
Thanks to Jordan Taylor, Mark Xu, Alex Mallen, and Lawrence Chan for feedback on a draft! This post was mostly written by Erik, but we're all currently collaborating on this research direction.
Mechanistic anomaly detection (MAD) aims to flag when ... |
d9a52c21-8b71-4dea-9b2e-f40955f1a48e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social - October
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social - October
WHEN: 16 October 2015 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 328 Little Lonsdale Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000
Our October Social Meetup is on as usual, this Friday.
Social Meetups are on the third Friday of every month. They are c... |
4c69d89d-5d94-4e81-9be1-b59657efe261 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AISN #20: LLM Proliferation, AI Deception, and Continuing Drivers of AI Capabilities
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.safe.ai/subscribe?utm_medium=w... |
7add1dc9-1ce0-40af-8c60-54c342c0f71d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Talent Needs of Technical AI Safety Teams
Co-Authors: @yams, @Carson Jones, @McKennaFitzgerald, @Ryan Kidd
MATS tracks the evolving landscape of AI safety[1] to ensure that our program continues to meet the talent needs of safety teams. As the field has grown, it’s become increasingly necessary to adopt a more forma... |
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