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values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-01-01 | 2022-04-14 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-14", 0.36586433673517715], ["2022-04-14", 0.4065621591033706], ["2022-05-15", 0.25830091202520433], ["2022-08-18", 0.25830091202520433], ["2022-08-18", 0.25830091202520433], ["2022-08-18", 0.25830091202520433], ["2022-08-18", 0.25830091202520433], ["2022-08-18", 0.25830091202520433], ["2022-08-18", 0.2583009... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-at-least-one-cultivated-meat-p | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-20 | 2022-04-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-04-15", 0.13779365193905352], ["2022-04-15", 0.15695229446312964], ["2022-04-15", 0.34570891823441463], ["2022-04-15", 0.41457150270560045], ["2022-04-16", 0.09561088815208099], ["2022-04-16", 0.10665983590474282], ["2022-04-16", 0.10847478244716138], ["2022-04-16", 0.11949517956173045], ["2022-04-16", 0.121853... | https://manifold.markets/AGG/will-president-biden-resign-before | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will President Biden resign before the end of 2022. | manifold | 0 |
2022-04-24 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-16", 0.13503540133867026], ["2022-04-16", 0.1583600268802487], ["2022-04-17", 0.12557244013579089], ["2022-04-18", 0.13345896096100723], ["2022-04-18", 0.14377435400389793], ["2022-04-18", 0.1898971382669412], ["2022-04-18", 0.22734531112628567], ["2022-04-19", 0.075180739803158], ["2022-04-20", 0.0688168411... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-marine-le-pen-win-the-2022-fre | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/ | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-04-24 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | manifold | 0 |
2022-04-24 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-16", 0.8333108330722349], ["2022-04-16", 0.8579157710137895], ["2022-04-17", 0.8679068658211796], ["2022-04-18", 0.8767122045250014], ["2022-04-18", 0.8915038291688113], ["2022-04-19", 0.9033981814577633], ["2022-04-20", 0.9094638062229207], ["2022-04-24", 0.9278095365086787], ["2022-04-24", 0.93397249788632... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-emmanuel-macron-be-reelected-a | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/ | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-04-24 | Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election? | manifold | 1 |
2022-05-18 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9700/carrick-flynn-to-win-or-6-democratic-primary/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-15", 0.43587395980512755], ["2022-04-18", 0.4402835537616379], ["2022-04-18", 0.46156470973146346], ["2022-04-23", 0.4752745393325911], ["2022-04-23", 0.4896713674507946], ["2022-04-29", 0.5524962133682398], ["2022-05-07", 0.5174882704292723], ["2022-05-11", 0.48294562622390724], ["2022-05-12", 0.47411155710... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-democrat-87caaa864015 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9700/carrick-flynn-to-win-or-6-democratic-primary/ | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-18 | Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-27 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10126/zero-day-exploit-against-us-by-june-2022/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-15", 0.24582011892969682], ["2022-04-17", 0.20694193135756847], ["2022-05-25", 0.17736329345934998], ["2022-05-29", 0.09783311887824835], ["2022-05-31", 0.07516707346842695], ["2022-05-31", 0.09329884628519337], ["2022-06-01", 0.06236928969771826], ["2022-06-01", 0.07226553979115376], ["2022-06-10", 0.034757... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/zeroday-exploit-against-us-by-june | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10126/zero-day-exploit-against-us-by-june-2022/
Close date updated to 2022-06-30 11:59 pm | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-01 | Zero-day exploit against US by June 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-28 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10130/average-semi-conductor-lead-times-15-weeks/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-15", 0.12738430576035134], ["2022-04-18", 0.06482174301501231], ["2022-06-02", 0.042383398133552186], ["2022-06-02", 0.06617686738618728], ["2022-06-08", 0.034882196863698846], ["2022-06-19", 0.024986392819675754], ["2022-06-26", 0.0070877611091897065], ["2022-06-28", 0.007033604954776948]] | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-average-semiconductor-chip-lea | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10130/average-semi-conductor-lead-times-15-weeks/ | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-01 | Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-05-10 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-17", 0.8088546717564762], ["2022-04-17", 0.8249314144129177], ["2022-04-17", 0.8387749181713898], ["2022-04-17", 0.8508002225173332], ["2022-04-17", 0.8613283020542205], ["2022-04-17", 0.8819104463612345], ["2022-04-21", 0.8370927048059551], ["2022-04-21", 0.860786577264728], ["2022-04-21", 0.920892018531560... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-bongbong-marcos-win-the-2022-p | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8980/marcos-wins-2022-philippine-election/ | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-10 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-rice/"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-04", 0.08636334779626287], ["2023-03-05", 0.09158148067493257], ["2023-03-07", 0.08273777674390993], ["2023-03-07", 0.08689880595811285], ["2023-03-31", 0.01952319169091114], ["2023-03-31", 0.02205953879949237], ["2023-03-31", 0.057094862723756204]] | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-vietnam-ban-export-of-rice-bef | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8868/vietnamese-export-ban-on-rice/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will Vietnam ban export of rice before April 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-22", 0.5265692072268834], ["2022-06-08", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.47957638371752315], ["2022-08-18", 0.4795763... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/by-april-2023-will-china-approve-cu | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/ | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-02 | 2022-04-15 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10621/elon-musk-twitter-ceo-before-2025/"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-15", 0.19065275351970112], ["2022-04-16", 0.11548730475205661], ["2022-04-16", 0.1321207418353621], ["2022-04-16", 0.15992303999400176], ["2022-04-16", 0.1740959632742727], ["2022-04-19", 0.10225530607567584], ["2022-04-25", 0.12770824767426422], ["2022-04-25", 0.13321123470465182], ["2022-04-25", 0.46869154... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10621/elon-musk-twitter-ceo-before-2025/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-02 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | manifold | 1 |
2022-05-31 | 2022-04-17 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-04-17", 0.2914530405235174], ["2022-04-17", 0.3338514474932057], ["2022-04-17", 0.336988684558625], ["2022-04-19", 0.2676036084344456], ["2022-04-20", 0.2538096935730161], ["2022-04-20", 0.2733921436742779], ["2022-05-12", 0.2173005937691417], ["2022-05-15", 0.18841540941343368], ["2022-05-16", 0.17055752545276... | https://manifold.markets/AngolaMaldives/will-team-cherry-set-a-release-date-0370f15f78d6 | This market resolves to YES if Team Cherry either set a release date, or officially forecast a release window (eg. 'Q3 2022') for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of May. If they release it without prior announcement in April or May it also resolves to YES, since releasing it sets the current date as the release date... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will Team Cherry set a release date/release window for Hollow Knight: Silksong by the end of May? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-04-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-04-18", 0.20705445654697788], ["2022-04-18", 0.46005064077660207], ["2022-04-18", 0.5711212590620798], ["2022-04-18", 0.699404893850044], ["2022-04-18", 0.809485523532167], ["2022-04-19", 0.6436211834162294], ["2022-04-20", 0.5487852108153418], ["2022-04-25", 0.7877671497784422], ["2022-04-26", 0.81327322220180... | https://manifold.markets/PedroMonteiro/will-filnland-join-nato-until-the-e |
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Filnland join NATO until the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-04-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-19", 0.41506696194664167], ["2022-06-12", 0.3788459406593863], ["2022-07-06", 0.24389679805504572], ["2022-08-18", 0.24389679805504572], ["2022-08-18", 0.24389679805504572], ["2022-08-18", 0.24389679805504572], ["2022-08-18", 0.24389679805504572], ["2022-08-18", 0.24389679805504572], ["2022-08-18", 0.2438967... | https://manifold.markets/zzq/will-victoria-3-be-released-by-nove | This market resolves to YES if Victoria 3 by Paradox Interactive is available on Steam as of November 1st, 2022. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-31 | Will Victoria 3 be released by November 1st, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-25 | 2022-04-19 | ["https://www.wolframphysics.org/)"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-21", 0.04167367048729019], ["2022-08-18", 0.04956805229962616], ["2022-08-18", 0.05878568129693719], ["2022-08-18", 0.05878568129693719], ["2022-08-18", 0.05878568129693719], ["2022-08-18", 0.05878568129693719], ["2022-08-18", 0.05878568129693719], ["2022-08-18", 0.05878568129693719], ["2022-08-18", 0.058785... | https://manifold.markets/MartinChase/will-the-wolfram-physics-project-cl | This market resolves to yes if the official website (https://www.wolframphysics.org/) publishes such a claim on or before 18 April, 2023, and that claim remains published for a week. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-26 | Will the Wolfram Physics Project claim to have created a system which implements the Standard Model on or before 18 April, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2022-04-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-01", 0.9681405162905499], ["2023-01-02", 0.9812012653606428], ["2023-01-02", 0.9902072951111339], ["2023-01-02", 0.9905254005529281]] | https://manifold.markets/stochasticcockatoo/will-latchbio-raise-a-total-of-15-m | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-02 | Will latch.bio raise a total of $15 million by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-04-25 | 2022-04-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-04-20", 0.4953450337060168], ["2022-04-20", 0.7912684578990665], ["2022-04-20", 0.8197925787060502], ["2022-04-20", 0.992361278447699], ["2022-04-21", 0.9910894135004201], ["2022-04-21", 0.9924309585748698], ["2022-04-21", 0.9924309585748698], ["2022-04-21", 0.9924309585748698], ["2022-04-21", 0.992544945181444... | https://manifold.markets/uzpg/will-this-market-have-2k-volume-by | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-04-25 | Will this market have >2k volume by May 1st? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-04-20 | ["https://www.npr.org/2022/04/06/1091061758/bird-flu-outbreak", "https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-commercial-backyard-flocks", "https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/data-csv/hpai-commercial-backyard-flocks.csv)", "https://for... | BINARY | [["2022-04-20", 0.3816000274910439], ["2022-04-20", 0.43649129356710653], ["2022-04-20", 0.488098173912079], ["2022-04-20", 0.9818041106116567], ["2022-04-20", 0.9850922258034289], ["2022-04-20", 0.9881367175396443], ["2022-04-20", 0.9909199227879948], ["2022-04-20", 0.9934207924297429], ["2022-05-11", 0.98770261536875... | https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-the-2022-bird-flu-outbreak-be | Context: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/06/1091061758/bird-flu-outbreak
"A highly pathogenic bird flu virus is tearing its way through U.S. farms and chicken yards, spreading to at least 24 states less than two months after the first outbreak was reported in a commercial flock.
Nearly 23 million birds have died. It's th... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the 2022 bird flu outbreak be worse than the 2015 outbreak (more than 50 million birds killed)? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-15 | 2022-04-20 | ["https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TWTR:NYSE?window=6M"] | BINARY | [["2022-04-20", 0.3320970788296002], ["2022-04-20", 0.3643105659399793], ["2022-04-20", 0.370722049060016], ["2022-04-21", 0.4343948718418581], ["2022-04-23", 0.5011410523066824], ["2022-04-25", 0.819431820127237], ["2022-04-25", 0.8485082522943476], ["2022-04-25", 0.9758045152645218], ["2022-04-26", 0.5001841826734876... | https://manifold.markets/hawkebia/will-twitter-stock-cross-5420-befor | Elon Musk's Twitter offer is for $54.20 per share. Part of the Twitter Board's consideration is if this offer represents a fair market value for the company.
Resolves to YES if Market Close Price on any day before September 1st, 2022 is MORE than $54.20. Source: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TWTR:NYSE?window=6M | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-15 | Will Twitter stock cross $54.20 before September 1st, 2022 | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-18 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk", "https://haruinvest.com/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-18", 0.455410048415837], ["2022-05-25", 0.4151759170769382], ["2022-05-25", 0.42811772059526804], ["2022-05-25", 0.44152575211245026], ["2022-07-23", 0.27400912282956297], ["2022-07-23", 0.27890612626442624], ["2022-07-26", 0.28567866080474125], ["2022-08-09", 0.4220260007987777], ["2022-08-10", 0.4344323358... | https://manifold.markets/metacontrarian/will-haruinvest-default-in-2022 | Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk
HaruInvest https://haruinvest.com/ pays interest on deposits of cryptocurrency. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will HaruInvest default in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-01 | 2022-05-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.4001684801780639], ["2022-05-20", 0.48164625505687775], ["2022-05-21", 0.35912874348689167], ["2022-05-21", 0.36559298678233954], ["2022-06-20", 0.007144016381451341], ["2022-06-20", 0.21508351813653565], ["2022-06-20", 0.3003433638243987], ["2022-06-20", 0.3591287434868917], ["2022-06-20", 0.74436017... | https://manifold.markets/zzq/will-yair-lapid-become-prime-minist | This market resolves to YES if the current rotation government survives until August 27th 2023, and Naftali Bennett steps down as Prime Minister in favor of Yair Lapid at that point as agreed in the rotation agreement.
This market will resolve to NO if Yair Lapid becomes prime minister under other circumstances, inclu... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-01 | Will Yair Lapid become prime minister of Israel under the rotation agreement as scheduled? | manifold | 0 |
2022-05-21 | 2022-05-19 | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-19", 0.6101809128006476], ["2022-05-19", 0.6211027007122198], ["2022-05-19", 0.7002895214510015], ["2022-05-20", 0.7149618335592653], ["2022-05-20", 0.8064140666043228], ["2022-05-20", 0.8475380897044708], ["2022-05-20", 0.8734588495730958], ["2022-05-20", 0.877144586491329], ["2022-05-20", 0.888491166187751... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-the-current-monkeypox-outbreak | Will the current monkeypox outbreak grow to more than 100 infections, before 20.07.22?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak
#Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox
Close date updated to 2022-07-20 11:59 pm
#World | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-21 | Will the current monkeypox outbreak reach more than 100 infections, before 20.07.22? | manifold | 1 |
2022-05-20 | 2022-05-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-19", 0.4771659587564838], ["2022-05-19", 0.6682903515871552], ["2022-05-19", 0.6864412523169424], ["2022-05-19", 0.7896557760555243], ["2022-05-19", 0.8240811814117794], ["2022-05-20", 0.054387607539183376], ["2022-05-20", 0.13685015656478702], ["2022-05-20", 0.22610956416372602], ["2022-05-20", 0.3253875870... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tsla-finish-the-week-above-700 | Resolves YES if TSLA is above $700 at close of market 4pm ET 5/20/22.
Close date updated to 2022-05-20 11:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-20 | Will TSLA finish the week above $700? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-20 | 2022-05-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-19", 0.13194751932497523], ["2022-05-19", 0.26822539625829017], ["2022-05-19", 0.3787604668379505], ["2022-05-20", 0.02234082649372789], ["2022-05-20", 0.04622355785873444], ["2022-05-20", 0.05291718115464068], ["2022-05-20", 0.05714446311381679], ["2022-05-20", 0.0629161304602451], ["2022-05-20", 0.06422450... | https://manifold.markets/huot3000/will-there-be-1000000-diagnosed-cas | Whether the 2022 calendar year will have seen >= 1,000,000 new, diagnosed cases of monkeypox. Count ends on December 31st, 23:59 GMT. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be 1,000,000 diagnosed cases of monkeypox in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-12 | 2022-05-19 | ["https://www.statnews.com/2022/05/17/cdc-expresses-concern-about-possibility-of-undetected-monkeypox-spread-in-u-k/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-19", 0.1877128938627408], ["2022-05-19", 0.23667693539342155], ["2022-05-19", 0.26669893653218585], ["2022-05-19", 0.2815323905667561], ["2022-05-19", 0.2902511779358458], ["2022-05-20", 0.3796439482159832], ["2022-05-20", 0.3825367902693084], ["2022-05-20", 0.479920419097026], ["2022-05-20", 0.5079869650621... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-there-be-10000-or-more-confirm | Background: https://www.statnews.com/2022/05/17/cdc-expresses-concern-about-possibility-of-undetected-monkeypox-spread-in-u-k/ | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-12 | Will there be 10,000 or more confirmed cases of monkeypox globally before the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-05-19 | 2022-05-19 | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-19", 0.2116171596810756], ["2022-05-19", 0.2568921707543168], ["2022-05-19", 0.3247628343062107], ["2022-05-19", 0.33395881118124504], ["2022-05-19", 0.3786072185493618], ["2022-05-19", 0.42937631211898863], ["2022-05-19", 0.5069867260833264], ["2022-05-19", 0.5112728847846029], ["2022-05-19", 0.534779076608... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-6d563f537f0d | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
Th... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-19 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $705 on May 19, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-05-30 | 2022-05-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.28923372423585764], ["2022-05-20", 0.28923372423585764], ["2022-05-20", 0.28923372423585764], ["2022-05-20", 0.3018984070126846], ["2022-05-20", 0.3149053330655551], ["2022-05-20", 0.3177161253147551], ["2022-05-20", 0.3204866474409029], ["2022-05-20", 0.32590648248339366], ["2022-05-20", 0.3259064824... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/this-market-will-have-traded-m22499 | Volume judged by "M$xyz bet" above the graph ^^^ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-30 | This market will have traded >M$22,499 in volume before the end of the month. | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-05-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.170458435273498], ["2022-05-20", 0.21116748934061702], ["2022-05-21", 0.11057304236875828], ["2022-05-21", 0.14929963555297654], ["2022-05-21", 0.1603074983613825], ["2022-05-21", 0.17069565499348474], ["2022-05-21", 0.22420734991934158], ["2022-05-22", 0.18812252960909526], ["2022-05-25", 0.137479538... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-a-monkeypox-pa | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the WHO declare a monkeypox pandemic in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-02 | 2022-05-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.41506696194664167], ["2022-05-20", 0.49005254631570005], ["2022-05-20", 0.5346412934138008], ["2022-05-21", 0.6114582941214475], ["2022-05-26", 0.5596914733323072], ["2022-06-05", 0.5118772896820435], ["2022-08-02", 0.4674483729240715], ["2022-08-18", 0.4674483729240715], ["2022-08-18", 0.467448372924... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-california-fire-season-be-wors | Closes November 1 | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-02 | Will California fire season be worse this year than last year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-24 | 2022-05-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.1693973364740832], ["2022-05-20", 0.23975048028656484], ["2022-05-20", 0.2590397963451637], ["2022-05-20", 0.3329354853313446], ["2022-05-21", 0.1402351117665401], ["2022-05-21", 0.14822969961974639], ["2022-05-21", 0.15916526382064713], ["2022-05-21", 0.2905055153659384], ["2022-05-25", 0.07982215979... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanL/will-one-of-either-the-us-uk-austra | This market resolves to YES if this happens and is published on a government webpage that references monkeypox being a significant factor in this.
Close date updated to 2022-06-25 12:00 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-24 | Will one of either the US, UK, Australia or Canada close borders or ban flights to any countries due to the monkeypox virus? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-20 | ["https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5?r=US&IR=T", "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527496917579612161"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.08089362856065127], ["2022-05-20", 0.08386446579408258], ["2022-05-20", 0.13845718476866423], ["2022-05-20", 0.14548755496540122], ["2022-05-20", 0.15241309567940076], ["2022-05-20", 0.19766863991520878], ["2022-05-20", 0.22316571590001963], ["2022-05-20", 0.2279016541601842], ["2022-05-20", 0.2838314... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-this-or-new-accusations-agains | - The current accusation requires another witness' statement to be published in a credible news outlet (perhaps anonymously)
- Any new accusation requires 2 statements and to be published in a credible news outlet
- credible news outlet is judged by Nathan, but is one that most users would trust
Close date updated to ... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will this or new accusations against Elon Musk be corroborated (1 accuser + 1 corroborator) in a credible news outlet before 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-14 | 2022-05-20 | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-20", 0.5244859791787422], ["2022-05-20", 0.5771044573511954], ["2022-05-20", 0.5814520609169582], ["2022-05-20", 0.7162475008802687], ["2022-05-20", 0.7240996953747693], ["2022-05-20", 0.8195882969652264], ["2022-05-21", 0.7150314837706095], ["2022-05-21", 0.7529798003037649], ["2022-05-21", 0.77029131657428... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-the-current-monkeypox-outbreak-ecd890444a93 | The number seems a good proxy for whether it grows out of control or not.
Context:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak
#Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science
May 20, 12:49pm: So yes I will resolve when the threshold is reached, or the outbrake seem to be over. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-14 | Will the current monkeypox outbreak reach >2000 infections? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-01 | 2022-05-21 | ["https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-21", 0.1395189150295703], ["2022-05-21", 0.14460970559405], ["2022-05-22", 0.12417594115582531], ["2022-05-22", 0.1752544152041452], ["2022-05-22", 0.20191058152420108], ["2022-05-23", 0.287231114757542], ["2022-05-23", 0.3108344837847447], ["2022-05-23", 0.34030477656320673], ["2022-05-25", 0.32686284493236... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-tether-usdt-fall-below-98-cent | Will it fall below that at any time? Mostly going to judge by https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether . Close date updated to 2022-07-31 11:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-01 | Will Tether (USDT) fall below 98 cents by July 31? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-05-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-21", 0.4771659587564838], ["2022-05-22", 0.4347828045064092], ["2022-05-26", 0.48462742137107195], ["2022-05-26", 0.5300970632711213], ["2022-06-01", 0.5712589677431242], ["2022-06-01", 0.6083324533178982], ["2022-06-02", 0.5819767110056294], ["2022-07-11", 0.4259619163392972], ["2022-07-11", 0.4891911176939... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-martin-shkreli-launch-an-nft-p | Must be a Shkreli product. eg not shilling someone else's
Must be public knowledge. eg Shkreli is not merely suspected of running an anonymized project | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Martin Shkreli launch an NFT project before the end of the year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-23 | 2022-05-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-21", 0.28710874779049417], ["2022-05-21", 0.29915997989061777], ["2022-05-21", 0.31513896676925984], ["2022-05-21", 0.39460012928415333], ["2022-05-21", 0.46698282579894684], ["2022-05-21", 0.5338680408804093], ["2022-05-21", 0.5540901879648495], ["2022-05-21", 0.5848855402054547], ["2022-05-22", 0.439961146... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-a-monkeypox-pu | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-23 | Will the WHO declare a monkeypox Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-22 | 2022-05-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-21", 0.1313971789977253], ["2022-05-21", 0.19830436744458885], ["2022-05-21", 0.7467882272443201], ["2022-05-25", 0.04166969406290597], ["2022-06-10", 0.13093280696340984], ["2022-06-11", 0.1193710454924077], ["2022-06-13", 0.10957295584673095], ["2022-06-15", 0.018726332634792262], ["2022-06-16", 0.02132944... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-trading-fees-be-removed-within | Resolves YES if prior to the market close date, Manifold does not charge fees on trades. NO if trading fees are still charged.
May resolve N/A in case fees are changed in some way that makes this ambiguous | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-22 | Will trading fees be removed within a month? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-20 | 2022-05-21 | ["https://aisafetyideas.com", "https://aisafetyideas.com/open"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-21", 0.6824922572411701], ["2022-05-22", 0.17726229441324862], ["2022-05-22", 0.19622274958322106], ["2022-05-22", 0.28469914712422933], ["2022-05-23", 0.17152208273292713], ["2022-05-28", 0.1607969986563582], ["2022-06-07", 0.23152907736218165], ["2022-08-13", 0.20014353402040735], ["2022-08-15", 0.15279848... | https://manifold.markets/apartresearch/will-aisafetyideascom-reach-200000 | aisafetyideas.com is a page that collects and showcases shovel-ready AI safety and governance project ideas. As development goes along, it will facilitate crowdsourcing ideas, mentorships, expert validation, funding and more.
The reason for 200,000 total unique visitors as the first question is because it is an unders... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-21 | Will aisafetyideas.com reach 200,000 total unique visitors in a year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-04 | 2022-05-22 | ["https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/EN/Areas/Energy/Companies/SecurityOfSupply/GasSupply/start.html"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-23", 0.6034881143003274], ["2022-05-24", 0.4576883742490059], ["2022-06-01", 0.3995681719127972], ["2022-06-06", 0.3351214169985448], ["2022-06-13", 0.30788856840443957], ["2022-06-18", 0.4948102631440497], ["2022-06-19", 0.4125235520341232], ["2022-06-23", 0.3451274334547631], ["2022-06-24", 0.2905525993522... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-nat-gas-storage-levels-in-germ | Does it drop any day in [20.5. - 30.6.]?
See:
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/EN/Areas/Energy/Companies/SecurityOfSupply/GasSupply/start.html
(Image 5)
Close date updated to 2022-07-30 11:59 pm | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-04 | Will Nat Gas storage levels in Germany fall for any day before 30th june? | manifold | 0 |
2022-05-29 | 2022-05-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.5040128007558102], ["2022-05-22", 0.5675581736286309], ["2022-05-22", 0.5938315022371247], ["2022-05-22", 0.5961677024489697], ["2022-05-26", 0.6839964527601541], ["2022-05-26", 0.9608718900477191], ["2022-05-26", 0.9638889046383039], ["2022-05-27", 0.6625345914672937], ["2022-05-27", 0.72922985520414... | https://manifold.markets/Undox/is-the-last-bet-on-this-market-a-bu | May 30, 9:06am: Last bet shown in my UI:
A trader sold M$0 of NO, 9 hours ago
$0 usually means < $0.50c, but it is a real bet. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-29 | Is the last bet on this market a buy NO or sell YES? | manifold | 0 |
2022-05-22 | 2022-05-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.03601611088828187], ["2022-05-22", 0.04502704418911861], ["2022-05-22", 0.04526312432750699], ["2022-05-22", 0.04528283499993655], ["2022-05-22", 0.060406509313619114], ["2022-05-22", 0.060423183366700745], ["2022-05-22", 0.060562611838741516], ["2022-05-22", 0.060670205457717265], ["2022-05-22", 0.06... | https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-this-market-achieve-at-least-m | This market closes when it hits M$500 traded volume and resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO at close date.
I am also testing to understand how market creation fees work. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-22 | Will this market achieve at least M$500 in volume? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-05-22 | ["http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/hurricanes", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Andrew_in_Florida", "https://redsouthbeach.com/blog/hurricane-irma-south-beach/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.472245500238244], ["2022-05-22", 0.5183532560818253], ["2022-05-22", 0.5188891174260203], ["2022-05-22", 0.5188891174260203], ["2022-05-22", 0.5188891174260203], ["2022-05-23", 0.6919387805993074], ["2022-08-11", 0.7171025556298393], ["2022-08-18", 0.7171025556298393], ["2022-08-18", 0.717102555629839... | https://manifold.markets/SteveMichaels/will-miami-beach-suffer-structural | Hurricane season is June 1st through November 30th, and historically, most hurricanes have struck in September or October: http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/hurricanes
Many sources cite Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as the last hurricane to inflict major damages in Miami broadly, but Miami Beach was almost totally spared... | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will Miami Beach suffer structural damages due to a hurricane this season? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-05-22 | ["https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.08517428835208184], ["2022-05-22", 0.09618727296162416], ["2022-05-22", 0.10393796021067078], ["2022-05-22", 0.14753779812830267], ["2022-06-03", 0.28570279697260387], ["2022-06-10", 0.7772130843662329], ["2022-06-11", 0.7548134444597869], ["2022-06-11", 0.7713325515013014], ["2022-06-11", 0.782065907... | https://manifold.markets/ResearchBet/will-there-be-400-covid19-paper-ret | This market resolves to "yes" if the Retraction Watch "Retracted coronavirus (COVID-19) papers" list reaches 400 in the year 2022. May 22, 12:05am: https://retractionwatch.com/retracted-coronavirus-covid-19-papers/ May 22, 5:51pm: see similar markets at research.bet Jun 12, 2:02am: Update: 236 Jul 28, 9:16pm: 253 Aug... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be >400 COVID-19 paper retractions by the end of 2022, as reported by Retraction Watch? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-05-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.6034881143003274], ["2022-05-22", 0.668314158752318], ["2022-05-23", 0.6956853063455489], ["2022-05-25", 0.7082815873258712], ["2022-06-01", 0.37695481813450066], ["2022-06-06", 0.4481366026556901], ["2022-07-14", 0.49502890514536063], ["2022-07-14", 0.5381656021078517], ["2022-07-14", 0.5582948692831... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tsla-close-below-550-on-any-si | This market resolves Yes if TSLA closes any trading day during 2022 below $550. As of 5/19/22 TSLA is priced at $663.90. Close date updated to 2022-11-18 2:42 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-18 | Will TSLA close below $550 on any single trading day in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-11 | 2022-05-22 | ["https://manifold.markets/jack/will-google-require-us-employees-to"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.3095220236749867], ["2022-05-22", 0.3688688756763051], ["2022-05-22", 0.4038245460651695], ["2022-05-22", 0.41506696194664167], ["2022-05-23", 0.23263692614487674], ["2022-05-23", 0.2516776620827506], ["2022-05-25", 0.21549313365449535], ["2022-05-26", 0.18607644746232024], ["2022-05-26", 0.2300312353... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-masks-be-required-in-sfba-goog | By the end of June, will masks be required for vaccinated employees in any Google offices in the San Francisco Bay Area?
A requirement instituted by Google or by a government qualifies for YES resolution. The requirement must apply to all or most vaccinated employees to resolve as YES.
Background: Currently masks ar... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-11 | Will masks be required in SFBA Google offices by end of June? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-05-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-22", 0.6824922572411701], ["2022-05-22", 0.7421652714074168], ["2022-05-24", 0.7618031884132397], ["2022-06-12", 0.8028577789643625], ["2022-07-05", 0.7867122157929841], ["2022-08-18", 0.7867122157929841], ["2022-08-18", 0.7867122157929841], ["2022-08-18", 0.7867122157929841], ["2022-08-18", 0.78671221579298... | https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-south-korea-have-a-lunar-orbit | Resolves to Yes if South Korea has a lunar orbiter in space by the end of the year. If the mission does not launch or is a failure, the question resolves to No. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will South Korea have a lunar orbiter in space by the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-01 | 2022-05-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-23", 0.6745524927638717], ["2022-05-23", 0.7870133567666197], ["2022-05-26", 0.8450465385338661], ["2022-05-28", 0.9114235947288021], ["2022-05-30", 0.7338944793049875], ["2022-05-31", 0.2678971143613659], ["2022-05-31", 0.2910693098457609], ["2022-05-31", 0.3784425519296392], ["2022-05-31", 0.40942401076785... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-bitcoin-trade-below-28000-befo | This question resolves YES if the bitcoin price on any market tracked by Cryptowat.ch falls below $28,000 at any time before 6/1/2022. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-01 | Will Bitcoin trade below $28,000 before June 1, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-05-23 | ["https://rateyourmusic.com/charts/top/album/all-time/deweight:live,archival,soundtrack/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-23", 0.4907365630657196], ["2022-05-23", 0.5360930492077504], ["2022-05-23", 0.5652138373010394], ["2022-05-23", 0.6032653282355352], ["2022-06-12", 0.5602022992628236], ["2022-07-25", 0.5311286302939455], ["2022-08-17", 0.5730684383671196], ["2022-08-18", 0.5730684383671196], ["2022-08-18", 0.57306843836711... | https://manifold.markets/Mvem/will-ok-computer-remain-the-top-alb | This market will resolve on January 1, 2023 based on whether the #1 album on [this](https://rateyourmusic.com/charts/top/album/all-time/deweight:live,archival,soundtrack/) chart is OK Computer by Radiohead.
May 23, 3:35pm: Resolves using whatever the default chart weighting is on resolution date | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will OK Computer remain the top album of all time on RateYourMusic on January 1, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-06 | 2022-05-24 | ["https://developer.apple.com/wwdc22/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.1212100653305982], ["2022-05-24", 0.12402102295285952], ["2022-05-24", 0.12861308014782133], ["2022-05-24", 0.17223947618599386], ["2022-05-24", 0.21035522528443906], ["2022-05-24", 0.21035522528443906], ["2022-05-24", 0.21035522528443906], ["2022-05-24", 0.22612056481954707], ["2022-05-24", 0.2589921... | https://manifold.markets/kazoo/will-apple-show-off-its-arvr-headse | https://developer.apple.com/wwdc22/
Close date updated to 2022-06-06 3:05 pm | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-06 | Will Apple show off its AR/VR headset at WWDC 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-05-27 | 2022-05-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.7179908124897632], ["2022-05-24", 0.7388480943116228], ["2022-05-24", 0.75764924044652], ["2022-05-24", 0.77462484619084], ["2022-05-24", 0.8524912980484741], ["2022-05-25", 0.4401844200596383], ["2022-05-25", 0.5393019622829959], ["2022-05-25", 0.5430548332729123], ["2022-05-25", 0.5504595409086235],... | https://manifold.markets/Mirek/will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-caf92642cf6e |
Close date updated to 2022-05-27 11:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-27 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $625 on May 26, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-05-31 | 2022-05-24 | ["https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2022/Monaco.html"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.435110334274634], ["2022-05-24", 0.4999207873437227], ["2022-05-24", 0.5691103154964463], ["2022-05-24", 0.67976443495289], ["2022-05-24", 0.7126176813311802], ["2022-05-25", 0.3764569864625118], ["2022-05-25", 0.4449934558471613], ["2022-05-27", 0.36444493413775797], ["2022-05-31", 3.448974164201173e... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-driver-starting-in-pole-po | https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2022/Monaco.html
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 11:59 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-31 | Will the driver starting in pole position also win the 2022 Monaco GP? | manifold | 0 |
2022-05-27 | 2022-05-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.3314290375494174], ["2022-05-24", 0.39663577912843495], ["2022-05-24", 0.41518287114789026], ["2022-05-24", 0.4554100484158368], ["2022-05-25", 0.2681058749977549], ["2022-05-25", 0.30398808533937616], ["2022-05-26", 0.38135716081161475], ["2022-05-26", 0.5092846102128008], ["2022-05-26", 0.8450965297... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tsla-finish-the-week-above-700-3b9d6f313df5 | Resolves YES if TSLA closes above $700 on 5/27/22.
May 25, 9:31pm: Closed today $658.80.
Close date updated to 2022-05-27 3:00 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-05-27 | Will TSLA finish the week above $700? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-05-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.5445829972989957], ["2022-05-24", 0.5848049573306894], ["2022-05-24", 0.6209325676590377], ["2022-05-27", 0.6533865122818199], ["2022-07-03", 0.4959892696301647], ["2022-07-04", 0.41154466581736143], ["2022-07-04", 0.4517192407927586], ["2022-07-04", 0.46330932148293424], ["2022-07-04", 0.511080960229... | https://manifold.markets/littlebubulle/will-russia-prevent-a-group-or-all | This question resolves to YES is Russia prevents a group like able bodied males, or all of their citizens from leaving the country for any reason. Groups can include specific ethnicities, foreigners, etc. Preventing a large number of specific individuals leaving for different reasons will not count. Sep 25, 7:39am: som... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Russia prevent a group or all of their citizens from leaving the country, before then end of 2022. | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-18 | 2022-05-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.46095481378286096], ["2022-05-24", 0.4638386536769518], ["2022-05-24", 0.5041746284313376], ["2022-05-24", 0.5068130541836114], ["2022-05-24", 0.5089878794277505], ["2022-05-24", 0.551524760482586], ["2022-05-24", 0.5848855402054547], ["2022-05-24", 0.6210028288799277], ["2022-05-25", 0.38932246232292... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-bitcoin-trade-below-20000-befo | Resolves YES if bitcoin falls below $20K prior to midnight on 12/31/22. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-18 | Will bitcoin trade below $20,000 before 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-05-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.5445829972989957], ["2022-05-28", 0.3131658358661577], ["2022-07-05", 0.27996935813505885], ["2022-08-18", 0.27996935813505885], ["2022-08-18", 0.27996935813505885], ["2022-08-18", 0.27996935813505885], ["2022-08-18", 0.27996935813505885], ["2022-08-18", 0.27996935813505885], ["2022-08-18", 0.27996935... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-e388b01e8cf3 | Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-10 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Wisconsin? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-05-24 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10986/vaccine-used-against-monkeypox-in-us/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.1820345273166373], ["2022-05-25", 0.12320942301135807], ["2022-05-25", 0.13200964141629346], ["2022-05-29", 0.11540322529389783], ["2022-06-02", 0.14291524459242486], ["2022-06-21", 0.078731318669585], ["2022-08-09", 0.12663116997586674], ["2022-08-18", 0.12663116997586674], ["2022-08-18", 0.126631169... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-the-us-cdc-recommend-use-of-a | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10986/vaccine-used-against-monkeypox-in-us/ | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population before 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-23 | 2022-05-24 | ["https://www.googletagmanager.com."] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.15889431439491075], ["2022-05-24", 0.1708144904497778], ["2022-05-24", 0.1998415300998435], ["2022-05-24", 0.22762631091777857], ["2022-05-27", 0.1483243998594465], ["2022-06-14", 0.13890862099718934], ["2022-06-22", 0.019287827630067575], ["2022-06-22", 0.03211213155169621], ["2022-06-22", 0.08143504... | https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-mm-remove-3rdparty-trackers-fr | Resolves YES if when the market closes, there are no network requests to trackers, like https://www.googletagmanager.com. It still resolves YES if they call a tracker they host.
I am guilty of slapping on GA onto sites, but it is nice from a privacy point of view if we don't. Also you might get better quality stats: F... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-23 | Will MM remove 3rd-party trackers from their font end code | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-05 | 2022-05-24 | ["https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7688/text"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.2682895278575143], ["2022-05-24", 0.32476545716731614], ["2022-05-24", 0.3773148882058577], ["2022-05-24", 0.49642022107039246], ["2022-05-24", 0.5154192849264946], ["2022-05-24", 0.5445829972989957], ["2022-05-24", 0.5614842671857587], ["2022-05-25", 0.4730131006276903], ["2022-05-25", 0.494977138715... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-there-be-price-controls-in-the | If say this law passes: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/7688/text Or some otherway. #Politics Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-01-05 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-05 | Will there be price controls in the US in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-31 | 2022-05-24 | ["https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10865/russian-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine-2022/"] | BINARY | [["2022-05-24", 0.13863775823032712], ["2022-05-24", 0.21575005721465138], ["2022-05-24", 0.22828425939682628], ["2022-05-25", 0.189290707492523], ["2022-05-26", 0.16823265633333254], ["2022-05-28", 0.45433905903276256], ["2022-05-28", 0.73753674185891], ["2022-05-29", 0.3428338347873658], ["2022-05-29", 0.448225135128... | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-russia-formally-declare-war-wi | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10865/russian-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine-2022/ | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-01 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-05-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-05-25", 0.23836658116656328], ["2022-05-26", 0.22761720360699272], ["2022-05-29", 0.20840500909979953], ["2022-05-31", 0.1918060968611343], ["2022-05-31", 0.199812783213425], ["2022-06-01", 0.18433104747366755], ["2022-06-09", 0.18433104747366746], ["2022-06-09", 0.1843310474736675], ["2022-06-09", 0.1843310474... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-stacey-abrams-win-the-2022-geo | This question resolves to YES if Stacey Abrams wins the Georgia governor's race. I'll call this if multiple major news organizations call the race for her and it appears as though there is no realistic path for Kemp to challenge the results. In the event of a contentious vote counting and/or litigation process by one o... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Stacey Abrams win the 2022 Georgia (GA) governor's race? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-18 | 2022-06-17 | ["https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/is-j-f-jurchen-honorable#c4njb0X6cRFXjr9buTzT", "https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-17", 0.34900309354912684], ["2022-06-17", 0.476940052248743], ["2022-06-17", 0.5000000000000003], ["2022-06-17", 0.5617375909786245], ["2022-06-17", 0.6164025797588277], ["2022-06-17", 0.6244432604820017], ["2022-06-17", 0.6742989275618717], ["2022-06-17", 0.8623309452068533], ["2022-06-17", 0.89878952269138... | https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/conditional-on-jurchenhonorable-res | https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/is-j-f-jurchen-honorable#c4njb0X6cRFXjr9buTzT
https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-19 | Conditional on Jurchen-Honorable resolving N/A, will Jurchen have at least +100 on Undex-Round-2? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-11 | 2022-06-17 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-17", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-18", 0.5665673787886473], ["2022-06-19", 0.6056897650372172], ["2022-06-19", 0.6408531223264387], ["2022-06-22", 0.4909778168361185], ["2022-06-22", 0.6215328791683012], ["2022-06-23", 0.3869761899864545], ["2022-06-26", 0.35256856907601963], ["2022-06-27", 0.3217477580273... | https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-blockfi-pause-withdrawals-or-c | Resolves YES if BlockFi pauses withdrawals for at least 24 hrs, files for bankruptcy, or otherwise becomes insolvent in 2022 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-13 | Will BlockFi pause withdrawals or cease operations in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-17 | 2022-06-17 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-17", 0.022706306801253236], ["2022-06-17", 0.022706306801253236], ["2022-06-17", 0.022706306801253236], ["2022-06-17", 0.7521081815657511], ["2022-06-17", 0.7669579592710262], ["2022-06-17", 0.7967644906918139], ["2022-06-17", 0.7967644906918139], ["2022-06-17", 0.8117433691766603], ["2022-06-17", 0.81198036... | https://manifold.markets/ArwynHughes/someone-will-send-over-25-eth-to-ke | This will resolve to YES if keepitweird.eth recieves over 0.25 ETH by midnight UTC | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-18 | Someone will send over .25 ETH to keepitweird.eth by midnight UTC today. | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-06 | 2022-06-17 | ["https://layoffs.fyi/", "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/how-many-startup-employees-will-be"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-17", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-06-17", 0.8044683537652002], ["2022-06-17", 0.8319518993964043], ["2022-06-18", 0.8437114836418025], ["2022-06-18", 0.8543561286285195], ["2022-07-02", 0.9209877741894551], ["2022-07-02", 0.9250589993841791], ["2022-07-03", 0.9288325389927083], ["2022-07-04", 0.94410623361817... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-more-than-15000-startup-employ | Will resolve yes if the layoffs.fyi chart passes 15,000 for June. I will wait one week after the month ends to resolve no, to allow for reporting lag.
Jun 17, 11:02am: Currently at 8,901. May was 16,985
https://layoffs.fyi/
Updated version of this question: https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/how-many-startup-employe... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-07 | Will more than 15,000 startup employees be laid off in June? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-24 | 2022-06-17 | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-17", 0.47287608705596645], ["2022-06-17", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-21", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-22", 0.3096686879849042], ["2022-06-22", 0.3390685095633803], ["2022-06-23", 0.2598641481326157], ["2022-06-23", 0.2833765204943867], ["2022-06-24", 0.006775758221879749], ["2022-06-24", 0.00798242697... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-crude-oil-close-over-111-on-24 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history?p=CL%3DF | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-24 | Will crude oil close over 111$ on 24.06. ? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-17 | ["https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.01.478608v1.abstract)"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-17", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-17", 0.5], ["2022-06-17", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-19", 0.5561523917345635], ["2022-07-01", 0.5665570095355775], ["2022-08-18", 0.5665570095355775], ["2022-08-18", 0.5665570095355775], ["2022-08-18", 0.5665570095355775], ["2022-08-18", 0.5665570095355775], ["2022-08... | https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/will-the-deep-mr-paper-we-wrote-get | As part of the research I did in my prior role, we wrote a paper ((https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.01.478608v1.abstract) describing the method we worked on and results. As of now, it has 0 citations. Will it have one or more citations by the end of the year? | Education & Research | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the Deep MR paper we wrote get >1 citation before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-26 | 2022-06-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-18", 0.3516856092362202], ["2022-06-18", 0.3939792194125585], ["2022-06-18", 0.6634625097106379], ["2022-06-18", 0.7405358885260981], ["2022-06-18", 0.7606794363395974], ["2022-06-18", 0.7705971735882008], ["2022-06-18", 0.866930587283249], ["2022-06-18", 0.8775669158494507], ["2022-06-18", 0.884801173518284... | https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-the-creator-earnings-for-this | As viewed in the market info screen for this market (Click the ... icon next to the amount bet). If that number exceeds M$200 this market will resolve YES, otherwise will resolve NO at close if the threshold has not been met. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-26 | Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$200? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-19 | 2022-06-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-18", 0.10121047730861103], ["2022-06-19", 0.02018030047273057], ["2022-06-19", 0.05954802580875706]] | https://manifold.markets/ArwynHughes/near-protocol-will-touch-31-dollars | I dont own near so apparently this bet is ok... Expired to true if it was true before close of bet. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-23 | NEAR protocol will touch $3.1 dollars or above before midnight UTC tonight. | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-13 | 2022-06-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-18", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-09", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-18", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-18", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-18", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-18", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-18", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-19", 0.7791078799225508], ["2022-08-19", 0.77910787992255... | https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-wa8-district-be-won-by-a-d | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-13 | Will the WA-8 district be won by a Democrat in the 2022 midterms? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-18 | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-18", 0.4333343242728137], ["2022-06-19", 0.43861423463710036], ["2022-06-22", 0.39897825541612236], ["2022-06-23", 0.36333584777551864], ["2022-06-23", 0.41925578848914213], ["2022-06-25", 0.0910855377346612], ["2022-06-25", 0.22740449989977218], ["2022-06-25", 0.24711338962679358], ["2022-06-25", 0.26134988... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-there-be-50-deaths-in-the-curr | Resolves yes if threshold is crossed. Resolves no if the outbreak seems to be over, or after 2022. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak #Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science #Monkeypox #Covid Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Sep 5, 9:44pm: Clarification, this is of course about dea... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be >50 deaths in the current monkeypox outbreak?(in 2022) | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-01 | 2022-06-18 | ["https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZkkeLBwRGgxmsiqrh/apply-to-join-shelter-weekend-this-august"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-18", 0.7883488814438655], ["2022-06-18", 0.8324997858181579], ["2022-06-18", 0.8464125343360895], ["2022-06-18", 0.8464125343360895], ["2022-06-18", 0.856804418010903], ["2022-06-26", 0.8963639959556235], ["2022-07-01", 0.9393329162285983], ["2022-07-10", 0.9604966061262198], ["2022-07-17", 0.961986793360712... | https://manifold.markets/JoelBecker/will-10-participants-attend-shelter | See information about SHELTER Weekend here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZkkeLBwRGgxmsiqrh/apply-to-join-shelter-weekend-this-august
This market resolves yes if >=10 selected participants (excluding me, Owen, Tereza, Sebastian, and any event staff) attend at least some part of the event in-person. | Education & Research | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-09 | Will >=10 participants attend SHELTER Weekend? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-19", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-06-20", 0.26405679375691377], ["2022-06-20", 0.32813896215263555], ["2022-06-20", 0.34325698792811615], ["2022-06-20", 0.4334354432298816], ["2022-06-21", 0.2431235900053193], ["2022-08-18", 0.2431235900053193], ["2022-08-18", 0.2431235900053193], ["2022-08-18", 0.24312359000... | https://manifold.markets/Kronopath/will-california-abolish-daylight-sa | This question resolves to “Yes” if either California or the US as a whole decides, through passage of a law or some other means, to stop switching the clocks twice per year on or before Dec. 31, 2022.
This resolves as Yes regardless of whether this means keeping daylight savings time year-round or standard time year-... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will California abolish daylight savings time in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-28 | 2022-06-19 | ["https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for-approval-voting-that-would-change-seattle-elections-is-headed-toward-november-ballot/"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-19", 0.41516420284771693], ["2022-06-19", 0.4924379841052504], ["2022-06-19", 0.9510781593546592], ["2022-06-19", 0.9917911497298921], ["2022-06-20", 0.3895994856181519], ["2022-06-20", 0.3979094916681656], ["2022-06-20", 0.40043929346806795], ["2022-06-20", 0.42408747215623277], ["2022-06-20", 0.44868088507... | https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-seattles-approval-voting-initi | In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134) to switch several city elected positions to use approval voting during their primaries. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for-approval-voting-that-would-change-seattle-elections-is-headed-toward-no... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-28 | Will Seattle's approval voting initiative pass? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-28 | 2022-06-19 | ["https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-19", 0.5600740723079792], ["2022-06-19", 0.5634743269031294], ["2022-06-19", 0.5716763704641665], ["2022-06-19", 0.586844305479837], ["2022-06-19", 0.6047153269299014], ["2022-06-19", 0.6102896493662773], ["2022-06-19", 0.6182594165309491], ["2022-08-18", 0.6047153269299014], ["2022-08-18", 0.604715326929901... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/eth-trades-greater-than-005-btc-at | In Scott Alexander's predictions for 2022 he gives a 90% probability to this outcome.
(On 31st Jan when the list of predictions was published ETH sat at roughly ~0.069BTC)
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
As of market creation ETH trades at ~0.052BTC | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | ETH trades greater than 0.05 BTC at the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-19 | 2022-06-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-19", 0.19427124322750158], ["2022-06-19", 0.3932764660995691], ["2022-06-19", 0.43228469269293024], ["2022-06-19", 0.4322846926929303], ["2022-06-19", 0.48237493934585923], ["2022-06-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-06-19", 0.5232349039181174], ["2022-06-19", 0.5232349039181174], ["2022-06-19", 0.53065422285... | https://manifold.markets/KaragounisZ/will-sam-get-more-soccer-football-j | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-19 | Will Sam get more soccer (football ⚽) juggles than George? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-21 | 2022-06-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-20", 0.047862175577548], ["2022-06-20", 0.0598728090439913], ["2022-06-20", 0.2041393027213665], ["2022-06-20", 0.31210179320024395], ["2022-06-21", 0.01773935459115066], ["2022-06-21", 0.01821619841625391], ["2022-06-21", 0.018712380995554778], ["2022-06-21", 0.01922895385518113], ["2022-06-21", 0.019767040... | https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/is-it-possible-to-force-a-draw-in-t | Two players, Alice and Bob, are playing a tic-tac-toe variant. Bob secretly flips a fair coin; if it's heads, he tries to win; if it's tails, he tries to lose. Bob wins if he manages to fulfil his goal, and Alice wins otherwise. Is it possible for Alice to win 100% of the time?
Jun 20, 5:00pm: Resolves when I see a co... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-21 | Is it possible to force a draw in tic-tac-toe against a player who is trying to either win or lose? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-10 | 2022-06-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-20", 0.3429749119726811], ["2022-06-20", 0.37627350044218083], ["2022-06-20", 0.40002502194174455], ["2022-06-20", 0.413383610143478], ["2022-06-20", 0.4334354432298816], ["2022-06-20", 0.45358517388455555], ["2022-06-20", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-07-10", 0.43253228519897513], ["2022-07-11", 0.28589896359... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-average-market-volume-triple-o | If limit orders become available and remain generally available for a period of at least one month, then resolves as follows: Resolves based on "median market volume" on If limit orders are supported for a temporary period of less than a month, resolves N/A. If limit orders are supported and then go away and then come... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-11 | Will median market volume triple one month after limit orders become available? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-23 | 2022-06-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-20", 0.49162382535414056], ["2022-06-20", 0.5155612102250777], ["2022-06-20", 0.5378452978762531], ["2022-06-20", 0.5666656757271863], ["2022-06-25", 0.6177281131252345], ["2022-07-09", 0.6516491215954725], ["2022-07-09", 0.682026606057109], ["2022-07-09", 0.7091975651448603], ["2022-07-09", 0.73349412158376... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-who-declare-another-public | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-23 | Will the WHO declare another Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030? | manifold | 1 |
2022-07-22 | 2022-06-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-20", 0.4757154000418485], ["2022-06-20", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-06-21", 0.500686705330793], ["2022-06-23", 0.5460925590539476], ["2022-06-23", 0.5872271009790018], ["2022-06-23", 0.6242753351054275], ["2022-06-23", 0.6286468499937087], ["2022-06-23", 0.6575168703944175], ["2022-06-27", 0.661433365187317... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo-fbcaed9b3aef | At some random time on july 22th I will look up the number on coinmarketcap.com , and resolve the market accordingly. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-22 | Will total crypto market cap be above 915B on july 22th, according to coinmarketcap? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-06-20 | ["https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=COP&view=1W"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-20", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-08-18", 0.52324459152658... | https://manifold.markets/ConnorMcCormick/will-the-usd-to-colombian-peso-cop | Colombia just had an election which elected a leftist politician that some predicted would plunge the country into Venezuela-type economic distress. To measure that, we'll just watch the USD to COP exchange rate. I'll use this site: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=COP&view=1W | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the USD to (Colombian Peso) COP exchange rate be > 4000 by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-04 | 2022-06-20 | ["https://kalshi.com/events/BBB/markets/BBB-22NOV08"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-20", 0.10233127014282688], ["2022-06-20", 0.1626546220534745], ["2022-06-20", 0.24051509025227544], ["2022-06-20", 0.2617527917013572], ["2022-06-20", 0.31210179320024395], ["2022-06-21", 0.11663653536027811], ["2022-06-21", 0.11914604276961231], ["2022-06-21", 0.12438706689198781], ["2022-06-26", 0.10432122... | https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-build-back-better-pass-before | Mirror this Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/events/BBB/markets/BBB-22NOV08 -- though I may not wait until Kalshi resolves their market before resolving this one, if the outcome is obvious.
Resolves YES if H.R. 5376 has become law by November 8, 2022 | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-04 | Will Build Back Better pass before election day? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-26 | 2022-06-21 | ["https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/this-market-will-have-traded-m25000"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-21", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-21", 0.45877439437642437], ["2022-06-21", 0.4596487633875023], ["2022-06-21", 0.48380050741515757], ["2022-06-21", 0.5086322590596386], ["2022-06-22", 0.4615988351062958], ["2022-06-22", 0.4865086318656984], ["2022-06-22", 0.50776580495181], ["2022-06-23", 0.5317424593457... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-this-market-trade-42069-in-vol | Resolves YES if the volume bet exceeds M$42,069 before the volume bet on https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/this-market-will-have-traded-m25000 exceeds M$250,000.
Notice: I will bet in both markets | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-26 | Will this market trade >42,069 in volume before GeorgeVii's market trades >250,000? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-25 | 2022-06-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-21", 0.3272673575944577], ["2022-06-21", 0.3939792194125585], ["2022-06-21", 0.5110431409992661], ["2022-06-21", 0.5432122228986479], ["2022-06-21", 0.5534769170198692], ["2022-06-21", 0.5809195210291977], ["2022-06-21", 0.5958136182557612], ["2022-06-21", 0.5995937201568234], ["2022-06-21", 0.59972454017378... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-the-creator-earnings-for-this-33cf872fd6d4 | Resolves to YES if the displayed "creator earnings" in the market info screen are higher than M$300 after market close.
SneakySly's M$200 market has a pretty high probability right now, suggesting the market as a whole views that target as fairly easy to hit. Is M$300 still attainable? | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-26 | Will the creator earnings for this market exceed M$300? | manifold | 1 |
2022-07-31 | 2022-06-21 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-21", 0.34280725691412495], ["2022-06-21", 0.3760863973177462], ["2022-06-21", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-21", 0.49999999999999994], ["2022-06-21", 0.5451954770064562], ["2022-06-21", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-21", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-06-23", 0.29907437095678613], ["2022-06-23", 0.30579411678... | https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-solana-trade-under-20-before-a | Resolves YES if Solana has a “low” price of <$20.00 for any day between market creation and July 31, 2022. Will use CoinMarketCap for the data source https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/solana/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-01 | Will Solana trade under $20 before Aug 1, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-25 | 2022-06-21 | ["https://manifold.markets/FranekZak/proof-of-work-market-i-will-select"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-21", 0.5232445915265814], ["2022-06-21", 0.605849389324212], ["2022-06-21", 0.6963039778142556], ["2022-06-21", 0.7262895964114939], ["2022-06-21", 0.7262895964114939], ["2022-06-21", 0.7529562022905353], ["2022-06-21", 0.8451746931075231], ["2022-06-21", 0.855682251705932], ["2022-06-21", 0.8725320237515428... | https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-the-best-hash-produced-in-the | Linked question: https://manifold.markets/FranekZak/proof-of-work-market-i-will-select | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-25 | Will the best hash produced in the linked question lead with 10 or more zeros? | manifold | 1 |
2022-07-31 | 2022-06-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-21", 0.07524106535729254], ["2022-06-21", 0.08376444586104295], ["2022-06-21", 0.09652618612808374], ["2022-06-21", 0.09941002088945525], ["2022-06-21", 0.10556144121366591], ["2022-06-21", 0.11227233220996087], ["2022-06-21", 0.11960841658542921], ["2022-06-21", 0.12764457233293566], ["2022-06-21", 0.181919... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-pope-francis-resign-before-202 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-31 | Will Pope Francis resign before 2022-08-01? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-25 | 2022-06-21 | ["https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2)", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1A027NBEA.", "https://manifold.markets/MichaelElgart/q2-2022-us-nominal-gdp-growth-rate", "https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf)."] | BINARY | [["2022-06-21", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-22", 0.5492692999893772], ["2022-06-28", 0.41240682422355746], ["2022-07-28", 0.5950542856362655], ["2022-08-09", 0.407149830357962], ["2022-08-09", 0.49267070060616114], ["2022-08-09", 0.49267070060616114], ["2022-08-09", 0.49267070060616114], ["2022-08-09", 0.5679995312... | https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-us-nominal-gdp-growth-exceed-5 | This market will be one of several that uses Manifold's binary market mechanism to span a range of nominal GDP outcomes. The final outcome will be determined by the BEA's advance estimate for 2022 full year nominal GDP estimate, typically published on the last Thursday in January, 2023. BEA publishes this data at this ... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-26 | Will U.S. nominal GDP growth exceed 5% in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-22", 0.15997705368859327], ["2022-06-22", 0.3762313635643075], ["2022-06-22", 0.413336724035514], ["2022-06-22", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-23", 0.14898517973594333], ["2022-08-18", 0.14898517973594333], ["2022-08-18", 0.14898517973594333], ["2022-08-18", 0.14898517973594333], ["2022-08-18", 0.148985179... | https://manifold.markets/kazoo/will-china-authorize-banking-operat | In June of 2021 the People’s Bank of China issued guidelines to the country’s major financial institutions restricting the supply of services, products, and transactions linked to virtual currencies. The authorities are identifying and restricting the activities of cryptocurrencies exchanges and over-the-counter operat... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will China authorize banking operations using virtual currencies again by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-23 | 2022-06-22 | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-22", 0.7398023252009494], ["2022-06-23", 0.02925051801171486], ["2022-06-23", 0.03733284911011798], ["2022-06-23", 0.03907569065773312], ["2022-06-23", 0.04220557515764568], ["2022-06-23", 0.051716745510543026], ["2022-06-23", 0.0563063019311675], ["2022-06-23", 0.0813138203732887], ["2022-06-23", 0.44072264... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-7e81a725f44c | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
T... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-23 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $710 on June 23, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-06-27 | 2022-06-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-22", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-22", 0.5556029287711262], ["2022-06-22", 0.5822082926845552], ["2022-06-22", 0.6144398160926641], ["2022-06-22", 0.6239136026822536], ["2022-06-22", 0.6571927430858746], ["2022-06-23", 0.6212639121495078], ["2022-06-23", 0.6487011127131487], ["2022-06-23", 0.67938853153020... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-comments-on-this-market-re | Resolves YES if the total number of tips on comments in this market is at least 30. | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-27 | Will the comments on this market receive a total of at least 30 tips? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-22 | 2022-06-22 | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-22", 0.0006435487377221027], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006468250739777212], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006501264875001762], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006534532348004838], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006568055756769574], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006601837732658793], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006635880940930826], ["2022-06-22", 0.0006670188081264686], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-93cd8c51c41a | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
T... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-22 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $725 on June 22, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-23", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-23", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-06-23", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-06-23", 0.6570628452415757], ["2022-06-26", 0.7234981189553691], ["2022-06-30", 0.6638425114559483], ["2022-07-05", 0.5788370823213643], ["2022-07-05", 0.5788370823213643], ["2022-07-05", 0.578837082321364... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-total-crypto-market-cap-be-abo-336bcbd2aee7 | Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will total crypto market cap be above 1T on years end, according to coinmarketcap? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-15 | 2022-06-22 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-22", 0.6242195171640661], ["2022-06-22", 0.6574668556717039], ["2022-06-22", 0.6872318795178413], ["2022-06-22", 0.7138520515278652], ["2022-06-22", 0.7376569573820942], ["2022-06-22", 0.7485954195089445], ["2022-06-29", 0.7687512775349296], ["2022-07-13", 0.7780255517632341], ["2022-07-13", 0.79514049942574... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-wikipedias-current-events-incl-48fd43a4b860 | Jun 22, 1:26pm: I'll look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events at some point on that day and resolve as I see it.
Jun 22, 1:26pm: Anything similar like "Russo-Ukrainian War" will also resolve YES. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Wikipedia's 'Current events' include the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an ongoing event on 2023-01-01? | manifold | 1 |
2022-06-24 | 2022-06-23 | ["https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-23", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-24", 0.413336724035514], ["2022-06-24", 0.7674367342542019], ["2022-06-24", 0.8850694560509015], ["2022-06-24", 0.8961603421561418], ["2022-06-24", 0.9524172700849761], ["2022-06-24", 0.9766650883430671], ["2022-06-24", 0.9773525932648485], ["2022-06-24", 0.97801042011208... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-3e17fe4a78dc | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
T... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-06-24 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $715 on June 24, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-07-28 | 2022-06-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-23", 0.5202690036855081], ["2022-06-23", 0.5379436700852821], ["2022-06-23", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-23", 0.5638684215307735], ["2022-06-23", 0.5798654024181621], ["2022-06-23", 0.6176573108532032], ["2022-06-24", 0.5629110563231166], ["2022-06-25", 0.46531155865561524], ["2022-06-29", 0.3849898659224... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-costs-to-create-a-market-b | Resolves YES if it is possible to create markets with an initial cost of less than M$100, otherwise NO.
Daily free markets were just removed, but for the purpose of this question they don't count, only resolves YES if you can create multiple markets a day with less than M$100 cost each.
If the initial cost is less th... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-01 | Will the costs to create a market be reduced by end of July? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-23", 0.13160783977684634], ["2022-06-23", 0.28555213544631897], ["2022-06-23", 0.31210179320024395], ["2022-06-25", 0.07307876484931464], ["2022-06-28", 0.06943927859421593], ["2022-07-11", 0.06605781498354861], ["2022-07-12", 0.03766730659991463], ["2022-07-12", 0.0572420105508297], ["2022-07-12", 0.0599787... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-tesla-support-fully-autonomous | Will customer Tesla cars be able to drive with nobody in the car by the end of 2022? Meaning Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy. Elon estimated in January 2021 that they would be at Level 5 by the end of 2021. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Tesla support fully autonomous driving by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-24", 0.33314784024198696], ["2022-06-24", 0.4415083369524409], ["2022-06-24", 0.9728541331019953], ["2022-06-25", 0.13394867034260044], ["2022-06-25", 0.13754623392788717], ["2022-06-25", 0.14736045703081185], ["2022-06-25", 0.15008331259918964], ["2022-06-25", 0.16118986442536004], ["2022-06-25", 0.16414093... | https://manifold.markets/i_no_read/will-there-be-a-serious-attack-on-a | By "serious attack", I mean either harm or get stopped in the process of trying to harm any of the justices or their family. Basically, a follow up to the guy with a knife near Brett Kavanaugh's house except them being more successful. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a serious attack on a Supreme Court justice or their family before the end of 2022 | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-06-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-24", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-06-24", 0.5497686691963776], ["2022-06-25", 0.5706567989943222], ["2022-06-30", 0.5905022047236596], ["2022-07-10", 0.5376122379268726], ["2022-07-12", 0.6517187001585585], ["2022-07-12", 0.7449591080243102], ["2022-07-14", 0.2574614580714935], ["2022-07-14", 0.49206281514161... | https://manifold.markets/Calcifer/will-chile-approve-the-constitution | This question resolves yes is the official vote count from the national plebiscite gives more than 50% of the votes to the "Approve" option. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Chile approve the Constitution proposed by its Constitutional Convention? | manifold | 0 |
2022-07-23 | 2022-06-24 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-24", 0.4334326212113528], ["2022-06-24", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-06-27", 0.3275200475857891], ["2022-06-27", 0.3590174275791595], ["2022-07-13", 0.0788783397042695], ["2022-07-14", 0.07481700283474836], ["2022-07-18", 0.008971393854599356], ["2022-07-19", 0.009185532259704211], ["2022-07-19", 0.01721685... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-french-rider-wear-the-yellow | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France
Will a French rider be the leader of the general classification at the 2022 Tour de France? | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-24 | Will a French rider wear the yellow jersey at the 2022 Tour de France? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-25", 0.8836155303216391], ["2022-06-25", 0.898789522691389], ["2022-06-26", 0.8906751737183606], ["2022-06-26", 0.9181936846203739], ["2022-06-28", 0.9088587307868659], ["2022-08-18", 0.9088587307868659], ["2022-08-18", 0.9088587307868659], ["2022-08-18", 0.9088587307868659], ["2022-08-18", 0.908858730786865... | https://manifold.markets/EliGaultney/will-abortion-be-allowed-after-6-we | Resolves to yes if it's accessible in at least 26 states by end of the year at week 7 or higher of the pregnancy. By "accessible" I will have to use some of my own judgement, but I basically mean that it's within a few hours drive of most people in the state and they don't need parents'/outside doctors' permissions if ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will abortion be allowed after 6 weeks a majority of US states by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-07-06 | 2022-06-25 | ["https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-25", 0.31210179320024395], ["2022-06-25", 0.7923894513935027], ["2022-06-25", 0.8286859909014297], ["2022-06-25", 0.8616143113260817], ["2022-06-25", 0.8769922795484627], ["2022-06-25", 0.9023915900220321], ["2022-06-25", 0.9454207644303467], ["2022-06-25", 0.9637793940484813], ["2022-06-26", 0.8706090967697... | https://manifold.markets/brainiac256/will-there-be-more-than-100-confirm | This question resolves to YES if at least one U.S. state, district, territory, or other region represented by its own row is reported to have more than 100 (>=101) cases of monkeypox as reported by the CDC at this URL https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html before July 29, 11:59PM EST, or NO if... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-07-08 | Will there be more than 100 confirmed cases of monkeypox in any U.S. state by the end of July? | manifold | 1 |
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