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values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022-09-27 | 2022-09-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.12334219115846347], ["2022-09-26", 0.2809600040823232], ["2022-09-26", 0.2809600040823232], ["2022-09-26", 0.2809600040823232], ["2022-09-26", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-26", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-26", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-26", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-26", 0.3300000000000... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-7a6e92efa357 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-27 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.00 on September 27, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-26 | ["https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/09/26/interpol-issues-red-notice-for-do-kwon-report/"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.57], ["2022-09-26", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-26", 0.6102654804828008], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.7599999999... | https://manifold.markets/3IC/will-do-kwon-be-apprehended-before | This question resolves to "Yes" if Do Kwon is apprehended by authorities before 2022 is over, otherwise it resolves to "No". https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/09/26/interpol-issues-red-notice-for-do-kwon-report/ | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Do Kwon be apprehended before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-28 | 2022-09-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.62], ["2022-09-26", 0.6200000000000001], ["2022-09-26", 0.6370941603514713], ["2022-09-26", 0.6388457510202608], ["2022-09-26", 0.6548207471737709], ["2022-09-26", 0.6599... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-hurricane-ian-hit-florida | Resolves yes only if still a hurricane when it hits. Major news media must report that Hurricane Ian hit Florida. Simple as that. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-28 | Will Hurricane Ian hit Florida? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-06 | 2022-09-26 | ["https://finalfantasypixelremaster.square-enix-games.com/en_US/"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.3378378378378378], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-09-28", 0.32000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/Chocobo/will-a-final-fantasy-pixel-remaster | Square Enix released the Final Fantasy Pixel Remasters only on Steam, Android and iOs so far. https://finalfantasypixelremaster.square-enix-games.com/en_US/ | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-19 | Will a Final Fantasy Pixel Remaster be released on Xbox or PlayStation before 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-09-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.2], ["2022-09-26", 0.23873325213154684], ["2022-09-26", 0.4796003330557868], ["2022-09-26", 0.7099999999999999], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26", 0.71], ["2022-09-26"... | https://manifold.markets/phl43/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-on-th | The question will resolve to "YES" if, at any point between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023, day-ahead or weekend contracts on the Dutch TTF spot market are traded at 200€/MWh or more at the end of the day according to the data published by EEX ( | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will the price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF spot market rise above 200€/MWh between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.5243757431629013], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.5399999999999998], ["2022-09-26", 0.56231732708517... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-do-kwon-be-captured-by-eoy | Related Markets | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Do Kwon be arrested by 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-27 | 2022-09-26 | ["https://polymarket.com/market-group/will-twtr-be-delisted-from-the-nyse-by"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-26", 0.2740598228667396], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.28], ["2022-09-26", 0.3000000000000001], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-twtr-be-delisted-from-the-nyse | Similar polymarket question: https://polymarket.com/market-group/will-twtr-be-delisted-from-the-nyse-by Oct 4, 1:07pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-27 | Will TWTR (twitter) be delisted from the NYSE by Jan 31st, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-04 | 2022-09-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.936632013111779], ["2022-09-27", 0.9396126373643303], ["2022-09-27", 0.942391910754304], ["2022-09-27", 0.942391910754304], ["2022-09-27", 0.942391910754304], ["2022-09-27", 0.942391910754304], ["2022-09-27", 0.946941507202925], ["2022-09-28", 0.9571214971695851], ["2022-09-28", 0.9571214971695851], [... | https://manifold.markets/NicholasCharette73b6/will-biden-be-president-on-october | This market will resolve at a randomly chosen time (known only to me) between October 13 23:59 ET and October 20 23:59 ET. I will not trade in this market. Sep 26, 6:39pm: Added the paragraph beginning with "If the market fails to resolve twice." I forgot to include this in the original description. Close date updated ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-04 | Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving] | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.9], ["2022-09-27", 0.9021850402933105], ["2022-09-28", 0.9063080541430016], ["2022-09-28", 0.9098805985582855], ["2022-09-28", 0.9116975991594289], ["2022-09-28", 0.9144719643186792], ["2022-09-28", 0.9144719643186792], ["2022-09-28", 0.9144719643186792], ["2022-09-28", 0.9153655948828893], ["2022-09-... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-mike-lee-win-the-2022-utah-sen | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Mike Lee win the 2022 Utah Senate election? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-20 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.38973451951719884], ["2022-09-27", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-28", 0.24587011086568047], ["2022-09-28", 0.24999999999999992], ["2022-09-28", 0.24999999999999992], ["2022-09-28", 0.2499999999... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-dart-missions-momentum-enh | The When it hit the asteroid, it transfers its momentum, but the impact also kicks up a cloud of debris which expands in the opposite direction, which enhances the momentum transfer of the collision. See Resolves YES if the momentum enhancement factor is measured at >2, NO if it's measured at <2. If estimates are pub... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the DART mission's momentum enhancement factor be measured at >2? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-27", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-27", 0.6282527881040894], ["2022-09-28", 0.6621621621621623], ["2022-09-28", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-09-28", 0.7191011235955057], ["2022-09-28", 0.7191011235955057], ["2022-09-28", 0.7191011235955057], ["2022-09-28", 0.71910112359550... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-announce-new-apple-silic | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will apple announce new apple silicon macs before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-28 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.54152273992687], ["2022-09-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-27", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-27", 0.672945907384009], ["2022-09-27", 0.6899999999999998], ["2022-09-27", 0.6899999999999998], ["2022-09-27", 0.6899999999999998], ["2022-09-27", 0.6899999999999998], ["2022-09-27", 0.6899999999999998]... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-63785551a35f | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-28 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.30 on September 28, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-07 | 2022-09-27 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/weather/hurricane-ian-cuba-florida-tuesday/index.html"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.5694294940796555], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-09-28", 0.3700000... | https://manifold.markets/jack/hurricane-ian-will-at-least-15-tota | Resolves YES if at least 15 total inches of rain fall in Tampa from 9/27 to 10/4 (inclusive), according to data at https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/weather/hurricane-ian-cuba-florida-tuesday/index.html | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-07 | (Hurricane Ian) Will at least 15 total inches of rain fall in Tampa from 9/27 to 10/4? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.29050758008785443], ["2022-09-27", 0.3185020806693241], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-09-27", 0.3499999999999... | https://manifold.markets/MarcioDiaz/will-bitcoin-price-fall-under-15k-i | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Bitcoin price fall under $15K in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-28 | 2022-09-27 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/24/weather/hurricane-forecast-gulf-of-mexico-florida-ian/"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-27", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-28", 0.37303843567113065], ["2022-09-28", 0.381126017373124], ["2022-09-28", 0.5170749086697989], ["2022-09-28", 0.617788536888109], ["2022-09-28", 0.6621621621621622], ["2022-09-28", 0.71], ["2022-09-28", 0.71], ["2022-09-28", 0.71], ["... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-hurricane-ian-strengthen-to-ca | Resolves YES if Hurricane Ian is reported as Category 4 (or higher) at landfall, otherwise NO. Currently Ian is Category 3 but is forecasted to strengthen. https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/24/weather/hurricane-forecast-gulf-of-mexico-florida-ian/ | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-29 | Will Hurricane Ian strengthen to category 4 at landfall? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.2684841069539859], ["2022-09-27", 0.29373000285559653], ["2022-09-27", 0.32212770154080433], ["2022-09-27", 0.35407871854114537], ["2022-09-27", 0.39], ["2022-09-27", 0.39], ["2022-09-27", 0.39], ["2022-09-27", 0.39], ["2022-09-27", 0.39], ["2022-09-27", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-28", 0.33], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-there-be-50-lethal-incidents-d | This question resolves "yes" if at least three major news outlets and/or the Russian Federation and/or U.S. or U.K. intelligence agencies report an escalation of violence that has resulted in more than 50 deadly incidents on any side by 31st December 2022, 23:59 | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be >= 50 lethal incidents during protests in Dagestan, Russia, in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.2489197303994633], ["2022-09-27", 0.2509823810557935], ["2022-09-27", 0.25319979301477846], ["2022-09-27", 0.2554146384586692], ["2022-09-27", 0.26], ["2022-09-27", 0.26], ["2022-09-27", 0.26], ["2022-09-27", 0.26], ["2022-09-27", 0.2905075800878546], ["2022-09-27", 0.2925994897008254], ["2022-09-27",... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-d3aa4192f347 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russia formally declare war on Ukraine during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-19 | 2022-09-27 | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.5778900769961574], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.59], ["2022-09-27", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-09-27", 0.69], ["2022-09-27", 0.69], ["2022-09-27", 0.69], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-consensus-reporting-be-that-no | Resolves YES if by the end of 2022, the consensus reporting among reliable media publications is that the Nord Stream pipelines were deliberately attacked on 9/26. Resolves NO if the consensus reporting is that the event was something other than a deliberate attack, or if no consensus has emerged by the end of 2022. Ba... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | Will consensus reporting be that Nord Stream was deliberately attacked on 9/26, by the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-09-27 | ["https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-operator-says-three-offshore-gas-pipelines-damaged-one-day-2022-09-27/"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.512310035513676], ["2022-09-27", 0.52437471750591], ["2022-09-27", 0.5901630640911479], ["2022-09-27", 0.5901630640911479], ["2022-09-27", 0.5901630640911479], ["2022-09-27", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-09-27", 0.6700135690432564], ["2022-09-27", 0.6865596790371113], ["2022-09-27", 0.7404178352938396]... | https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-russia-be-accused-of-sabotagin | Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 have been damaged on 2022-09-26. By 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 31, 2022, will there be a consistent piece of evidence or a NATO country government and/or U.S. or U.K. intelligence agencies clearly accusing the Russian Federation of being responsible for these damages? Reuters: https://www.reute... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russia be accused of sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and/or Nord Stream 2 in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-18 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.6], ["2022-09-27", 0.63], ["2022-09-27", 0.63], ["2022-09-27", 0.63], ["2022-09-27", 0.63], ["2022-09-27", 0.63], ["2022-09-27", 0.63], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/livinginthesnow/will-harry-maguire-be-in-the-starti | This question resolves "Yes" if Harry Maguire starts for England in their first game of the 2022 World Cup. That game is scheduled to be against Iran on November 21, 2022. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-20 | Will Harry Maguire be in the starting 11 for England's first game of the 2022 World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-09-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-27", 0.36], ["2022-09-27", 0.37174721189591076], ["2022-09-27", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28", 0.36], ["2022-09-28... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-197144ac38ab | Related Artermis 1 markets: Sep 27, 1:42am: Close date updated to 2022-10-31 11:21 am Close date updated to 2022-11-30 11:59 pm | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will Artemis I Launch by the end of November? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-05 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.41999999999999976], ["2022-09-28", 0.43534361396889404], ["2022-09-28", 0.4499999999999999], ["2022-09-28", 0.46627650142669136], ["2022-09-28", 0.4677754677754678], ["2022-09-28", 0.47831420389751034], ["2022-09-28", 0.48], ["2022-09-28", 0.48], ["2022-09-28", 0.48], ["2022-09-28", 0.48], ["2022-09-2... | https://manifold.markets/IvanBestvina/sp-500-will-close-below-372000-on-f | Resolves to YES if the closing price on Friday, October 7th 2022, for S&P 500, is below $3720.00. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-05 | S&P 500 will close below $3720.00 on Friday, Oct 7th 2022 | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.04705882352941178], ["2022-09-28", 0.06433667245776807], ["2022-09-28", 0.06899227033705926], ["2022-09-28", 0.23000000000000004], ["2022-09-28", 0.23000000000000004], ["2022-09-28", 0.23000000000000004], ["2022-09-28", 0.23000000000000004], ["2022-09-28", 0.23000000000000004], ["2022-09-28", 0.230000... | https://manifold.markets/jonjordanc3f0/will-xi-jinping-still-be-president | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Xi Jinping still be president of China and Vladimir Putin president of Russia on 1 January 2023 | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-24 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-09-28", 0.235849... | https://manifold.markets/Gunneone/will-avatar-2-gain-9-or-more-oscar | The original "Avatar" movie released in 2009 got 9 academy award nominations of which it won 3. The theatrical relase of its sequel "Avatar: The Way of Water" is planned for December 16, 2022. The market will resolve "Yes", if the sequel will be nominated for 9 or more academy awards for the 95th academy awards. The m... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-24 | Will "Avatar: The Way of Water" gain 9 or more Oscar nominations? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.3629831293924267], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-28", 0.4], ["2022-09-... | https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-elon-musk-say-the-word-twitter | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will Elon musk say the word “twitter” during his main talk at AI day | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-20 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.8], ["2022-09-28", 0.8], ["2022-09-28", 0.9608211946843659], ["2022-09-28", 0.9609924492326211], ["2022-09-28", 0.9609924492326211], ["2022-09-28", 0.9609924492326211], ["2022-09-28", 0.9609924492326211], ["2022-09-28", 0.9609924492326211], ["2022-09-28", 0.9609924492326211], ["2022-09-28", 0.96099244... | https://manifold.markets/dreev/beeminder-2099 | Most Beeminder goals are open-ended. But we haven't implemented that, we just default to 10 years in the future as an approximation to an ongoing goal. Which is bad and we have a bigger overhaul planned, but this is about a tiny change that might help a little. Namely, we can just change that "now + 10 years" to the Sc... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-20 | Will it be a Pareto improvement to change Beeminder goals' default end date to 2099-12-31? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-01 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-28", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-28", 0.6282527881040894], ["2022-09-28", 0.6312602660311122], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.64], ["2022-09-28", 0.6621... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-baltic-pipe-be-operational-on | The Baltic Pipe is a natural gas pipeline between the Norwegian sector of the North Sea and Poland. It is a strategic infrastructure project with the goal of creating a new gas supply corridor in the European market. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-01 | Will Baltic Pipe be operational on November 1? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-29 | 2022-09-28 | ["https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna49729"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.00803148484852688], ["2022-09-28", 0.008147421591421995], ["2022-09-28", 0.00826587986857864], ["2022-09-28", 0.008386933124714675], ["2022-09-28", 0.008510657490263926], ["2022-09-28", 0.00865313860776586], ["2022-09-28", 0.008799217163475167], ["2022-09-28", 0.00894901491741958], ["2022-09-28", 0.00... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-hurricane-ian-strengthen-to-ca-d11322584389 | Resolves YES if Hurricane Ian is reported as Category 5 at landfall, otherwise NO. Currently it is Category 4 and near Category 5 strength. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna49729 Related Close date updated to 2022-09-28 11:19 pm | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-29 | Will Hurricane Ian strengthen to category 5 at landfall? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.057086158077446006], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", 0.060123263554722965], ["2022-09-28", ... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-nato-country-claim-article-5 | Resolves YES if Article 5 is invoked by any NATO member by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. Sep 28, 8:58am: Article 5 has been triggered only once in NATO history, by the US on 9/11. Sep 28, 10:28am: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will a NATO country invoke Article 5 by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.5057291718146937], ["2022-09-28", 0.508263898374539], ["2022-09-28", 0.5812632054692165], ["2022-09-28", 0.5812632054692165], ["2022-09-28", 0.5812632054692165], ["2022-09-28", 0.5880850872033749], ["2022-09-28", 0.5947794985554227], ["2022-09-28", 0.6172306749981294], ["2022-09-28", 0.617230674998129... | https://manifold.markets/stormtk293/will-usdcny-breaks-75-before-the-en | This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.5000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8). China is a currency manipulator in fact but on a “monitoring list” for currency practices along with nine other countries, including Germany, Italy and Japan. I'll go by whatever is the latest quoted price shown... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will USD/CNY breaks 7.5 before the end of Q1 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-28 | ["https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W", "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SNDW_A_EPC0_SAS_MBBL_W.htm"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.2542212123995014], ["2022-09-28", 0.25422121239950... | https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-the-us-strategic-petroleum-res | This question resolves to YES if the Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SNDW_A_EPC0_SAS_MBBL_W.htm | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drop below 330 million barrels before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-28 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.3718933320134066], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38], ["2022-09-28", 0.38... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-hold-an-event-in-novembe | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-28 | Will apple hold an event in November 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2022-09-28 | ["https://www.axios.com/2022/09/28/janet-yellen-treasury-midterms-shuffle"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.39375248164156956], ["2022-09-28", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-28", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-28", 0.47516703238459745], ["2022-09-28", 0.4770552183244439], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.479999999... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-janet-yellen-leave-the-office | Resolves YES if by the end of April 2023, Janet Yellen no longer is Treasury Secretary. Otherwise NO. https://www.axios.com/2022/09/28/janet-yellen-treasury-midterms-shuffle | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-02 | Will Janet Yellen leave the office of Treasury Secretary by April 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-11 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.03650801796082168], ["2022-09-28", 0.053957846692535893], ["2022-09-28", 0.053957846692535893], ["2022-09-28", 0.053957846692535893], ["2022-09-28", 0.05519750285749407], ["2022-09-28", 0.055197502857494106], ["2022-09-28", 0.055197502857494106], ["2022-09-28", 0.055197502857494106], ["2022-09-28", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-aapl-stock-ever-go-below-100-f | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will AAPL stock ever go below $100 for more than a day in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-28", 0.47877227041003306], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.47999999999999987], ["2022-09-28", 0.479999... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-russia-cut-off-all-gas-supplie | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Russia cut off all gas supplies to EU countries during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.3221277015408043], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.2937300028555964], ["2022-10-01", 0.24306330418470642], ["2022-10-01", 0.24955789584003535], ["2022-10-01", 0.2495578958... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-china-vote-to-condemn-any-new | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will China vote to condemn any new Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory at the United Nations during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-25 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.20822488287350346], ["2022-09-29", 0.2545088795638767], ["2022-09-29", 0.27511166271781956], ["2022-09-30", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-30", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-30", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-30", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-09-30", 0.3389450996624128], ["2022-10-01", 0.300726516014... | https://manifold.markets/LukeW/will-any-nfl-game-in-weeks-47-end-i | This question resolves as YES if any of the NFL games scheduled to take place from 9/29 to 10/24 (Weeks 4 through 7) ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-25 | Will any NFL game in Weeks 4-7 end in a tie? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.13080338799648825], ["2022-09-29", 0.18487260397253624], ["2022-09-29", 0.1922152811148487], ["2022-09-29", 0.3542958370239151], ["2022-09-29", 0.3902439024390246], ["2022-09-29", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-29", 0.4524886877828056], ["2022-09-29", 0.528673957288512], ["2022-09-30", 0.1303968155395... | https://manifold.markets/ian/will-tyler-cowen-create-a-market-be | Professor at GMU and coauthor of the blog marginal revolution (with Alex Tabarrok) - will he create a market on manifold before 2022? | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Tyler Cowen create a market before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.279671103928581], ["2022-09-29", 0.3700000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.3902439024390245], ["2022-09-30", 0.2700000000000001], ["2022-09-30", 0.278419956619393], ["2022-09-30", 0.278419956619393], ["2022-09-30", 0.278419956619393], ["2022-10-01", 0.28], ["2022-10-01", 0.28], ["2022-10-01", 0.28], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/ian/will-alex-tabarrok-create-a-market | Professor at GMU and coauthor of the blog marginal revolution (with Tyler Cowen) - will he create a market on manifold before 2022? | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Alex Tabarrok create a market before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-02 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-09-29", 0.7191011235955056], ["2022-09-29", 0.8500000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.8500000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.8711340206185565], ["2022-09-30", 0.91], ["2022-09-30", 0.91], ["2022-09-30", 0.9195340632961757], ["2022-10-01", 0.009627876027347621], ["2022-10-01", 0.0096... | https://manifold.markets/RichardLabas/will-the-tesla-reveal-hw-40-at-ai-d | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-02 | Will the Tesla reveal HW 4.0 at AI day? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-30 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.11170188999597876], ["2022-09-29", 0.18], ["2022-09-29", 0.18], ["2022-09-29", 0.18], ["2022-09-29", 0.18], ["2022-09-29", 0.65], ["2022-09-29", 0.65], ["2022-09-29", 0.65], ["2022-09-29", 0.65], ["2022-09-29", 0.65], ["2022-09-29", 0.715301513513365], ["2022-09-29", 0.76], ["2022-09-29", 0.76], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-d1e2c25f6908 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-30 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.00 on September 30, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.40983606557377056], ["2022-09-29", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-29", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.5243757431629013], ["2022-09-29", 0.5399361022364217], ["2022-09-29", 0.5399361022364217], ["2022-09-29", 0.5399361022364217], ["2022-09-29", 0.5524861878453037], ["2022-09-29", 0.5694294940796... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-the-fed-hike-at-every-meeting-9eb80c7ec835 | November December Jan/Feb Related Markets | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the Fed hike at every meeting through February 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.3185020806693244], ["2022-09-29", 0.35000000000000014], ["2022-09-29", 0.35000000000000014], ["2022-09-29", 0.35000000000000014], ["2022-09-29", 0.35000000000000014], ["2022-09-29", 0.35000000000000014], ["2022-09-29", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-09-30", 0.11757505287458979], ["2022-09-30", 0.14385451... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-chinese-yuan-1-cny-fall-below | This question will resolve to "YES" if at any point of year 2022, the exchange rate between Chinese yuan-renminbi (CNY-RMB) and U.S. dollar (USD) is below 0.100000, according to Yahoo! Finance, | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Chinese yuan (1 CNY) fall below $0.10 USD in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.34146771777217455], ["2022-09-29", 0.36976247252038086], ["2022-09-29", 0.3758280689430897], ["2022-09-29", 0.3758280689430897], ["2022-09-29", 0.3758280689430897], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.39], ["2022-09-29", 0.402109219650736], ["2022-09-29", 0.4076091594882619], ["2022-09-29", 0.42859... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-more-than-one-model-o | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will there be more than one model of the Tesla Optimus robot presented during a live demo at AI Day? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-29 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.022130430659140474], ["2022-09-29", 0.022130430659140474], ["2022-09-29", 0.022130430659140474], ["2022-09-29", 0.0222612255041388], ["2022-09-29", 0.0222612255041388], ["2022-09-29", 0.0222612255041388], ["2022-09-29", 0.02245958585482397], ["2022-09-29", 0.02245958585482397], ["2022-09-29", 0.022459... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-ddf73d006849 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-29 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.30 on September 29, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.14123741911486581], ["2022-09-29", 0.19877034522779827], ["2022-09-29", 0.20312230593185981], ["2022-09-29", 0.20762363385245006], ["2022-09-29", 0.21228108955840053], ["2022-09-29", 0.23817366207980809], ["2022-09-29", 0.24423366873501423], ["2022-09-29", 0.24456682128329252], ["2022-09-29", 0.250218... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-an-optimus-robot-drive-a-tesla | Resolves YES if it happens, NO if not. Close date updated to 2022-09-30 11:59 pm | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will an Optimus robot drive a Tesla vehicle during a live demo at Tesla AI Day? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.13141989495618045], ["2022-09-29", 0.14799125026347223], ["2022-09-29", 0.18289229479149002], ["2022-09-29", 0.19680295764191766], ["2022-09-29", 0.20403145769750083], ["2022-09-29", 0.20474204155391293], ["2022-09-29", 0.209538535605017], ["2022-09-29", 0.209538535605017], ["2022-09-29", 0.2095385356... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-it-be-announced-that-anthony-l | Resolves YES if it happens, NO if not. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will it be announced that Anthony Levandowski has been or will be working on fully autonomous systems in some capacity at Tesla during AI Day? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.23494346707080524], ["2022-09-29", 0.2534948811935692], ["2022-09-29", 0.2870545736290623], ["2022-09-29", 0.2946011869574116], ["2022-09-29", 0.3024059331086999], ["2022-09-29", 0.38582798603475194], ["2022-09-29", 0.5121631037604836], ["2022-09-29", 0.5140817136057119], ["2022-09-29", 0.526995324570... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tesla-demo-a-full-self-driving | Resolves YES if it happens, NO if not. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will Tesla demo a full self driving semi truck at AI Day? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.04110816863377735], ["2022-09-29", 0.06800155464119981], ["2022-09-29", 0.06899019245929662], ["2022-09-29", 0.06926069767391758], ["2022-09-29", 0.06999999999999998], ["2022-09-29", 0.06999999999999998], ["2022-09-29", 0.0803254090894928], ["2022-09-29", 0.08158720799351299], ["2022-09-29", 0.0828780... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-optimus-robot-juggle-any-3 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will the Optimus robot juggle any 3 or more objects during a live demo at Tesla AI Day? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-11 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.04747296703514704], ["2022-09-29", 0.0503347494672296], ["2022-09-29", 0.0503347494672296], ["2022-09-29", 0.0503347494672296], ["2022-09-29", 0.050555559057184916], ["2022-09-29", 0.050555559057184916], ["2022-09-29", 0.050555559057184916], ["2022-09-29", 0.05077779880575623], ["2022-09-29", 0.050777... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-ftx-go-bankrupt-before-2024 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-11 | Will FTX go bankrupt before 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.19532361246388066], ["2022-09-29", 0.20499286628693383], ["2022-09-29", 0.22999999999999998], ["2022-09-29", 0.22999999999999998], ["2022-09-29", 0.2521024699818814], ["2022-09-29", 0.31656597055899943], ["2022-09-29", 0.4009225959552145], ["2022-09-29", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-29", 0.488928351... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-there-be-another-attack-agains | Sep 30, 7:30am: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be another attack against major EU energy infrastructure during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-05 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.28089887640449435], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.29], ["2022-09-29", 0.3076923076923076], ["2022-09-29", 0.3378378378378378], ["2022-09-29", 0.35384239493381625... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-hurricane-ian-be-reclassified | Resolves YES if by 7/1/2023, NHC reclassifies Hurricane Ian as Category 5 based on reanalysis. Otherwise NO. (If Hurricane Ian simply strengthens to Category 5 again somewhere in the Atlantic, that does not count for this question. What does count YES is if NHC decides that Hurricane Ian was actually Cat 5 at some poin... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-05 | Will Hurricane Ian be reclassified as category 5 based on NHC reanalysis? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-24 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.3868008215521582], ["2022-09-29", 0.4000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.4000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.49547520576552984], ["2022-09-29", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-09-29", 0.5475113122171... | https://manifold.markets/Gunneone/will-any-marvel-studios-movie-recei | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any movie produced by Marvel Studios receives a nomination for the main category of Best Picture for the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to "No" otherwise. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-24 | Will any Marvel Studios movie receive an Oscar nomination for Best Picture? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-24 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-29", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-29", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-29", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-29", 0.4299999999999999], ["2022-09-29", 0.4432929003413628], ["2022-09-29", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-29", 0.4579788806389511], ["2022-09-29", 0.47034208386061... | https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-there-be-a-successful-attack-o | Ukraine and the European part of Russia excluded. Sep 29, 8:55am: Sep 29, 9:03am: Sep 29, 9:05am: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-30 | Will there be a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, or telecommunications infrastructure by February 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-24 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-29", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-29", 0.61], ["2022-09-29", 0.61], ["2022-09-29", 0.61], ["2022-09-29", 0.61], ["2022-09-29", 0.61], ["2022-09-29", 0.61], ["2022-09-29", 0.7], ["2022-09-29", 0.7409930275816151], ["2022-09-29", 0.7409930275816151], ["2022-09-29", 0.74099... | https://manifold.markets/Gunneone/will-any-netflix-movie-receive-an-o | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any movie originally distributed by Netflix receives a nomination for the main category of Best Picture for the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to "No" otherwise. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-24 | Will any Netflix movie receive an Oscar nomination for Best Picture? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-09-29 | ["https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnn.com/travel/amp/canada-removes-covid-restrictions/index.html"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-29", 0.5475113122171947], ["2022-09-29", 0.5843814322539592], ["2022-09-29", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-29", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-09-30", 0.57], ["2022-09-30", 0.57], ["2022-09-30", 0.57], ["2022-09-30", 0.57], ["2022-09-30", 0.57], ["2022-09-30", 0.580000000000... | https://manifold.markets/RuthGraceWong/is-the-us-going-to-quid-pro-quo-rem | Canada just removed theirs. Will the US do the same? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnn.com/travel/amp/canada-removes-covid-restrictions/index.html | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Is the US going to quid pro quo remove COVID restrictions on Canadian travelers by the end of November? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-29", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-29", 0.6282527881040894], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01"... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-announce-an-apple-silico | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will apple announce an apple silicon mac pro before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-25 | 2022-09-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-29", 0.5941723144352907], ["2022-09-29", 0.6318250432605573], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-01", 0.63], ["2022-10-02", 0.6936887607274831], ["2022-10-03", 0.6936887607274831], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-svat | Related market, with closer deadline: Close date updated to 2023-02-24 11:59 pm | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-25 | Will Ukraine regain control of Svatove by Feb 24, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-30 | 2022-09-30 | ["https://manifold.markets/Cedar/should-i-follow-up-on-richard-ngo#wnvIQvDnPPmWFN6oXHBE"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.006111685247952517], ["2022-09-30", 0.007756971955502085], ["2022-09-30", 0.03489668371115279], ["2022-09-30", 0.03489668371115279], ["2022-09-30", 0.03489668371115279], ["2022-09-30", 0.03489668371115279], ["2022-09-30", 0.03489668371115279], ["2022-09-30", 0.03489668371115279], ["2022-09-30", 0.0367... | https://manifold.markets/Cedar/will-richard-ngo-get-back-to-me-bef | This question resolves to yes if I receive anything at all. Also, m$ for whoever provides me clues of what he meant when he said "AI Compute Governance conference". It involves Nvidia somehow. Sep 30, 2:48pm: Related market: https://manifold.markets/Cedar/should-i-follow-up-on-richard-ngo#wnvIQvDnPPmWFN6oXHBE | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-30 | Will Richard Ngo get back to me before Saturday noon? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-02 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.5133472537266829], ["2022-09-30", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-30", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-30", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55], ["2022-09-30", 0.55],... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t | Philadelphia is at home and is favored by 6.5 points. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-02 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-02 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-30", 0.40983606557377... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tesla-announce-they-are-updati | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-02 | Will Tesla announce they are updating the hardware of their Dojo supercomputer at AI Day? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-21 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.006023513727230806], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06279786357030637], ["2022-09-30", 0.06372... | https://manifold.markets/njmkw/will-ukraine-join-nato-by-the-end-o | Today Ukraine applied for fast-track NATO membership. Will it officially join in 2022? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Ukraine join NATO by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.1379310344827586], ["2022-09-30", 0.1479289940828402], ["2022-09-30", 0.15898251192368837], ["2022-09-30", 0.17123287671232876], ["2022-09-30", 0.18484288354898343], ["2022-09-30", 0.2], ["2022-10-01", 0.13999999999999999], ["2022-10-03", 0.13807584662710154], ["2022-10-03", 0.13807584662710154], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/JanLukasR/will-robert-habeck-resign-as-minist | Question resolves to Yes if German Minister Robert Habeck resigns as Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action at any point in 2022 Sep 30, 11:48am: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-30 | Will Robert Habeck resign as Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-15 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.591336265462222], ["2022-09-30", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-10-03", 0.59], ["2022-10-03", 0.59], ["2022-10-03", 0.59], ["2022-10-03", 0.59], ["2022-10-03", 0.59], ["2022-10-03", 0.6281066679865932], ["2022-10-04", 0.66], ["2022-10-04", 0.66], ["2022-10-04", 0.6620321999635504], ["2022-10-06", 0.69038... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-the-price-of-eu-natural-gas-du | If the value of Dutch TTF Natural Gas NOV 22 natural gas futures settles at more than 200.00 €/MWh as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-15 | Will the price of EU Natural Gas (Dutch TTF) be over 200€/MWh on October 15, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.3362838876679139], ["2022-09-30", 0.354295837023915], ["2022-09-30", 0.3622747269078595], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37], ["2022-09-30", 0.37999999999999995],... | https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supre | This market resolves YES if, at any point between now and January 1st (exclusive; Iran time), Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran. Closely related markets: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.09706381946129582], ["2022-09-30", 0.19221528111484856], ["2022-09-30", 0.220161741096663], ["2022-09-30", 0.25000000000000006], ["2022-09-30", 0.25000000000000006], ["2022-09-30", 0.25000000000000006], ["2022-09-30", 0.25000000000000006], ["2022-09-30", 0.25000000000000006], ["2022-09-30", 0.25000000... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/sp-500-will-go-below-3000-during-20 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | S&P 500 will go below 3000 during 2022 | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.829055199891249], ["2022-09-30", 0.85], ["2022-09-30", 0.8500000000000001], ["2022-09-30", 0.8556305685826774], ["2022-09-30", 0.8556305685826774], ["2022-09-30", 0.8556305685826774], ["2022-09-30", 0.8576401634879783], ["2022-09-30", 0.8576401634879783], ["2022-09-30", 0.8576401634879783], ["2022-09-... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-michael-bennet-win-the-2022-co | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Michael Bennet win the 2022 Colorado senate election? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-27 | 2022-09-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.19603272132019278], ["2022-09-30", 0.196032... | https://manifold.markets/JoeBrucker/will-gpt4-be-released-by-end-of-yea | This question resolves to "YES" if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before January 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will GPT-4 be released by end of year (December 21, 2022)? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-10-01 | ["https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-attacks-northern-iraq-with-missiles-and-drones-killing-at-least-13-11664402169", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-30"] | BINARY | [["2022-10-01", 0.02592224880692851], ["2022-10-01", 0.027027027027027053], ["2022-10-01", 0.05353468689584386], ["2022-10-01", 0.05786529331087502], ["2022-10-01", 0.05786529331087502], ["2022-10-01", 0.05786529331087502], ["2022-10-01", 0.0754716981132075], ["2022-10-03", 0.05500149472408729], ["2022-10-03", 0.055001... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-iran-attack-us-forces-in-iraq | Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that Iranian military forces exchanged fire or any other "kinetic conflict" with US forces in Iraq and caused at least one casualty to the US forces, by the end of 2022. Otherwise NO. Background https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-attacks-northern-iraq-with-missiles-and-... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Iran attack US forces in Iraq in 2022, causing at least one casualty? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-10-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-01", 0.601300773100994], ["2022-10-01", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-10-01", 0.662162162162162], ["2022-10-01", 0.8199999999999998], ["2022-10-01", 0.8199999999999998], ["2022-10-01", 0.8323356383527711], ["2022-10-02", 0.8237182751826632], ["2022-10-02", 0.8331228039753291], ["2022-10-02", 0.8331733771439881... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-mateusz-morawiecki-stay-prime | This market will resolve to "YES" if, by December 31 2022, 6 PM ET, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-10-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.45], ["2022-10-01", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-02", 0.5022618775537591], ["2022-10-02", 0.6935920280655101], ["2022-10-03"... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-announce-an-m2-mac-mini | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will apple announce an M2 mac mini in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-13 | 2022-10-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-01", 0.35325189294916715], ["2022-10-01", 0.35325189294916715], ["2022-10-01", 0.38876630375720767], ["2022-10-01", 0.38876630375720767], ["2022-10-01", 0.38876630375720767], ["2022-10-01", 0.38876630375720767], ["2022-10-01", 0.38876630375720767], ["2022-10-01", 0.38876630375720767], ["2022-10-01", 0.388766... | https://manifold.markets/mkualquiera/will-ai-art-text2imgetc-be-regulate | Resolves to YES if a major government such as the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, etc, decides to regulate the creation or distribution of AI art through law. For example: laws banning AI art, encouraging it and accepting it as transformative, etc. Resolves to NO otherwise. Furthermore, isolated lawsuits/cases that ref... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will "AI art" (text2img,etc) be regulated before 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-13 | 2022-10-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-01", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-01", 0.6199999999999999], ["2022-10-01", 0.6199999999999999], ["2022-10-01", 0.6199999999999999], ["2022-10-01", 0.6199999999999999], ["2022-10-01", 0.6315020099890364], ["2022-10-01", 0.6453122288351462], ["2022-10-01", 0.6486861907173423], ["2022-10-01", 0.64868619071734... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-another-hurricane-after-ian-hi | Resolves "yes" if another hurricane of any strength makes landfall anywhere in Florida before January 1. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-14 | Will another hurricane (after Ian) hit Florida this year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.8299999999999998], ["2022-10-02", 0.82999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-republican-win-the-2022-alas | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will a Republican win the 2022 Alaska governor's race? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.824257094036453], ["2022-10-02", 0.824257094036453], ["2022-10-02", 0.8264671266173315], ["2022-10-02", 0.85], ["2022-10-03", 0.8554133039424561], ["2022-10-03", 0.8554133039424561], ["2022-10-03", 0.8616562785081422], ["2022-10-03", 0.8616562785081422], ["2022-10-03", 0.8616562785081422], ["2022-10-0... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-new-me | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 New Mexico governor's race? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.5999999999999999], ["2022-10-02", 0.6064700428410537], ["2022-10-02", 0.612817411537406], ["2022-10-03", 0.612817411537406], ["2022-10-03", 0.619043916464935], ["2022-10-03", 0.619043916464935], ["2022-10-03", 0.619043916464935], ["2022-10-03", 0.619043916464935], ["2022-10-03", 0.619043916464935], ["... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-nevada | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | Will a Democrat win the 2022 Nevada governor's race? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-08 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.35999999999999993], ["2022-10-02", 0.37009828083141916], ["2022-10-02", 0.41656121089268655], ["2022-10-02", 0.4194484760522495], ["2022-10-02", 0.4194484760522495], ["2022-10-02", 0.4194484760522495], ["2022-10-02", 0.42861345402561535], ["2022-10-02", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-10-02", 0.459999999... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-leicester-beat-bournemouth-on | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-08 | Will Leicester beat Bournemouth on the 8th of October? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-03 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.20253024208126588], ["2022-10-02", 0.23480773377898423], ["2022-10-02", 0.23480773377898423], ["2022-10-02", 0.23480773377898423], ["2022-10-02", 0.3000000000000001], ["2022-10-02", 0.3000000000000001], ["2022-10-02", 0.3000000000000001], ["2022-10-02", 0.3317905694588295], ["2022-10-02", 0.3599999999... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-053a1dea9cc1 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-03 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.00 on October 3, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-10-02", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39], ["2022-10-03", 0.39024390243902446], ["2022-10-03", 0.4098360655737705]... | https://manifold.markets/Pepe/before-march-31-2023-will-search-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Before March 31, 2023, will search interest for the term "RUSSIA PROTESTS" on Google Trends surpass the February 2022 peak? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-15 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.3241746305653375], ["2022-11-09", 0.3392287778881542], ["2022-11-09", 0.34568239845091964], ["2022-11-09", 0.34756732310199134], ["2022-11-09", 0.3561535857137556], ["2022-11-09", 0.35631202424221625], ["2022-11-09", 0.35631202424221625], ["2022-11-09", 0.35631202424221625], ["2022-11-09", 0.360820170... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-republican-win-the-2022-ariz | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will a Republican win the 2022 Arizona governor's race? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-02", 0.79], ["2022-10-0... | https://manifold.markets/jonmast/will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2022-penn | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2022 Pennsylvania governor's race? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.8500510030601836], ["2022-10-02", 0.8500510030601836], ["2022-10-02", 0.8620689655172413], ["2022-10-02", 0.9195549069682597], ["2022-10-02", 0.9334986578920371], ["2022-10-02", 0.9346525230946187], ["2022-10-02", 0.9357705011576224], ["2022-10-02", 0.9368541841017718], ["2022-10-02", 0.94528624972347... | https://manifold.markets/zzq/will-biden-still-be-president-at-th | This question is an attempt, similar to At close, I will roll a twenty-sided die. On a roll of 20, I will resolve this according to my best judgement. Otherwise, I will resolve this to the market probability. The idea is that this sort of market is mostly, but not completely, self resolving. The creator needs to inves... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-31 | Will Biden still be president at the end of October 2022? (95% chance of resolving to market) | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-03 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.19863778292344236], ["2022-10-02", 0.24384007985503678], ["2022-10-02", 0.2698100658428325], ["2022-10-02", 0.2698100658428325], ["2022-10-02", 0.2698100658428325], ["2022-10-02", 0.2749145843902404], ["2022-10-02", 0.27762762105217037], ["2022-10-02", 0.32208732586091465], ["2022-10-02", 0.3999999999... | https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/will-the-packers-win-todays-game | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-03 | Will the packers win today’s game? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-17 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.48361096184846886], ["2022-10-02", 0.5344418052256534], ["2022-10-02", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-02", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48], ["2022-10-03", 0.48]... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-bitcoin-btcusd-weekly-candle-b | This market will resolve on the day when SLS is launched in its first Artemis I attempt. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-17 | Will Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly candle be positive on the launch day of Artemis I? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-28 | 2022-10-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-04", 0.9516646214504663], ["2022-10-04", 0.9538882540807058], ["2022-10-04", 0.9538882540807058], ["2022-10-04", 0.956375028253915], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ["2022-10-04", 0.96], ... | https://manifold.markets/dreev/biden-quiescence | In case you missed it, there've been some fascinating experiments with self-resolving markets on Manifold lately. The idea of a self-resolving market is that sometimes it's hard or impossible to pin down unambiguous resolution criteria for a prediction. In that case resolving to the consensus of the market participants... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-28 | Will Biden still be president at the end of October 2022? (resolves to quiescent market price) | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-11 | 2022-10-17 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-17", 0.8000868589603517], ["2022-10-17", 0.8069703067574602], ["2022-10-17", 0.8214119241401543], ["2022-10-17", 0.8343933775133671], ["2022-10-17", 0.8350515463917525], ["2022-10-17", 0.8373010206693435], ["2022-10-18", 0.8029031123448951], ["2022-10-18", 0.8029031123448951], ["2022-10-18", 0.80290311234489... | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-k | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-12 | Will Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be released in May 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-21 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.74], ["2022-10-20", 0.7490824999063541], ["2022-10-20", 0.795641314453948], ["2022-10-20", 0.8151571164510167], ["2022-10-21", 0.0052751920929509965], ["2022-10-21", 0.012538779176273768], ["2022-10-21", 0.026489242950186957], ["2022-10-21", 0.03856127685072648], ["2022-10-21", 0.051577618620560574], ... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-4df9aef20d32 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. Thi... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-21 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.00 on October 21, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.3381425663124678], ["2022-10-20", 0.37174721189591076], ["2022-10-20", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-21", 0.36170924596710885], ["2022-10-21", 0.38833099550965594], ["2022-10-21", 0.39545725633697754], ["2022-10-22", 0.37656143288436494], ["2022-11-16", 0.3265606002138801], ["2022-11-16", 0.340000000... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-england-make-it-to-the-semifin | Resolves YES if England places 4th or better at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Close date updated to 2022-12-10 4:05 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Will England make it to the semi-finals at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-02 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.8499999999999999], ["2022-10-20", 0.8987730277632361], ["2022-10-20", 0.9], ["2022-10-20", 0.9012914596695324], ["2022-10-20", 0.9062499821075671], ["2022-10-20", 0.9097228003413108], ["2022-10-20", 0.9127737303574625], ["2022-10-20", 0.9236411539229384], ["2022-10-20", 0.9249938210425349], ["2022-10-... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-olivia-repay-her-1week-loan | Resolves YES if Olivia pays the lender the promised amount of money (or more) at the end of the loan period. Resolves YES if Olivia's resolution (or the correct resolution if there is consensus that she mis-resolved it) is greater or equal to the lowest bid. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-02 | Will Olivia repay her 1-week loan? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-24 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.08682668341160765], ["2022-10-20", 0.12000081203886193], ["2022-10-20", 0.1472653706712743], ["2022-10-20", 0.1473693085729514], ["2022-10-20", 0.15202814635948064], ["2022-10-20", 0.15708367513020452], ["2022-10-20", 0.1681496527663783], ["2022-10-20", 0.17000000000000004], ["2022-10-20", 0.174211784... | https://manifold.markets/njmkw/will-boris-johnson-be-the-next-brit | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-25 | Will Boris Johnson be the next British Prime Minister? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-01 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-10-20", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-21", 0.3132901765708777], ["2022-10-21", 0.33927017750270766], ["2022-10-21", 0.37000000000000005], ["2022-10-22", 0.24000000000000005], ["2022-10-22", 0.27563042063743237], ["2022-10-22", 0.29363905407824337], ["2022-10-24", 0.178127170... | https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-seattle-have-a-day-of-100-aqi | Data source: Resolves YES if any day in 11/1 - 11/7 (inclusive) has an AQI reading of >100 | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-01 | Will Seattle have a day of >100 AQI air in the first week of November? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-22 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.3902439024390245], ["2022-10-20", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-10-21", 0.11074094556930425], ["2022-10-21", 0.1211047947344499], ["2022-10-21", 0.14], ["2022-10-21", 0.14], ["2022-10-21", 0.14], ["2022-10-21", 0.28], ["2022-10-21", 0.2925800698389575], ["2022-10-21", 0.3114382926686909], ["2022-10-21",... | https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-seattle-air-quality-be-150-aqi | Data source: | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-22 | Will Seattle air quality be >150 AQI on October 22? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-24 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.18737044531802174], ["2022-10-20", 0.23212999305843596], ["2022-10-20", 0.24465206724820324], ["2022-10-20", 0.37], ["2022-10-20", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-10-20", 0.4318139524780489], ["2022-10-21", 0.15986522029802372], ["2022-10-21", 0.17999999999999997], ["2022-10-21", 0.189029389720131], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/AlexL/will-there-be-a-uk-general-election | Truss gone, what now? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be a UK general election by the end of 2022 | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-24 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.04540935278646799], ["2022-10-20", 0.06326992256185732], ["2022-10-20", 0.07198457648544875], ["2022-10-20", 0.10191910664005306], ["2022-10-20", 0.10191910664005306], ["2022-10-20", 0.12226198121053178], ["2022-10-20", 0.12833473868227804], ["2022-10-20", 0.1414165463175017], ["2022-10-20", 0.1446260... | https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-boris-johnson-be-the-next-uk-p | Liz Truss has resigned, and the Conservative Party will appoint a new Prime Minister. Will Boris Johnson be the next PM? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-25 | Will Boris Johnson be the next UK Prime Minister? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.20339141219830445], ["2022-10-20", 0.23333477083662296], ["2022-10-20", 0.24555045486805568], ["2022-10-20", 0.27], ["2022-10-20", 0.36315458396561645], ["2022-10-20", 0.39665050683120334], ["2022-10-20", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-20", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-21", 0.1956685282428511], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/andreasrtobing/will-bitcoin-reach-to-14k-before-th | This year, Bitcoin has drop above 60% yet so many traders out there think that Bitcoin hasn't reach the macro-bottom. Historically Bitcoin drop 85% every 4-year and the macro-bottom formed in about 365 days. So will history repeat this time? | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Bitcoin reach to $14k before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-10-20 | ["https://letterboxd.com/film/the-fabelmans/"] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.7034049116146637], ["2022-10-22", 0.67], ["2022-10-24", 0.6990270887053135], ["2022-10-28", 0.720683367560245], ["2022-10-28", 0.7402916332730435], ["2022-10-31", 0.7601812388469689], ["2022-10-31", 0.7624042219471242], ["2022-11-01", 0.8055362335954526], ["2022-11-12", 0.8593108745811097], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeTaylor/will-the-fabelmans-have-an-average | 'The Fabelmans' premiered at the Toronto Film Festival on 10 September. The full US theatrical release is on 23 November, after a limited theatrical release on 11 November. The average rating stands at 4.2 as of 20 October. This question resolves to "YES" if the average Letterboxd rating of 'The Fabelmans' is 4.1 or hi... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will 'The Fabelmans' have an average Letterboxd rating above 4.0 one week after it's full US release? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-21", 0.49547520576552984], ["2022-12-29", 0.25326241239399944], ["2022-12-31", 0.037622487772989974], ["2022-12-31", 0.04891738280017486]] | https://manifold.markets/andreasrtobing/will-sui-token-launch-before-2022 | $SUI probably one of the most anticipated layer-1 to launch after Aptos $APT. Currently Mysten Labs sits at number 4 on Crunchbase, thus so many bullish narratives built on $SUI. Will it launch before 2022 ends? | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will $SUI token launch before 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-10-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-20", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-20", 0.6282527881040894], ["2022-10-20", 0.6621516935715746], ["2022-10-21", 0.5178233783189151], ["2022-10-21", 0.5499999999999999], ["2022-10-30", 0.275050613444398], ["2022-10-30", 0.2900000000000001], ["2022-10-30", 0.359007571739681... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-announce-an-m2-imac-in-2 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will apple announce an M2 iMac in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.37174721189591076], ["2022-10-21", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-10-21", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-21", 0.4208437178707516], ["2022-11-29", 0.3923589845250976], ["2022-12-04", 0.19750656918966747], ["2022-12-04", 0.2088240160571984], ["2022-12-10", 0.06000000000000004], ["2022-12-10", 0.06000000000... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-team-finish-a-2022-fifa-wo | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will any team finish a 2022 FIFA World Cup match with nine players? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-11-14", 0.4565870514651085], ["2022-11-28", 0.4940878899025987], ["2022-12-04", 0.5248628329112022], ["2022-12-09", 0.4969213385411021], ["2022-12-10", 0.52419481038148], ["2022-12-14", 0.29338204288087694], ["2022-12-14", 0.31], ["2022-12-14", 0.34146169701149925], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-final-7f5e330fb43e | Resolves yes if the sum of the final match score of the world cup is an even number. Resolves no if the sum of the final match score of the world cup is an odd number. If the match ends in a penalty shoot-out, the penalty kicks scored are added to the match score in deciding a winner. Oct 21, 3:59pm: Oct 21, 4:05pm: ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will the sum of the 2022 FIFA World Cup final match score be an even number? | manifold | 1 |
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