date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | extracted_urls stringlengths 2 7.19k | question_type stringclasses 3
values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022-12-25 | 2022-06-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-25", 0.18801963792582937], ["2022-06-25", 0.20323550930818637], ["2022-06-26", 0.12549553059506974], ["2022-06-26", 0.13410529374964977], ["2022-06-26", 0.14357163015923405], ["2022-06-26", 0.15076364350499152], ["2022-06-26", 0.17431815251084182], ["2022-06-26", 0.3624070636311642], ["2022-06-27", 0.1204035... | https://manifold.markets/KeresaHoward/will-neuralink-conduct-human-trials | This question resolves to "YES" if Neuralink conducts at least one human trial by the end of 2022. This question resolves to "NO" if Neuralink does not conduct at least one human trial by the end of 2022. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Neuralink conduct human trials by the end 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-06-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-26", 0.08139272411153561], ["2022-06-26", 0.14112206591247395], ["2022-06-26", 0.15130100983600872], ["2022-06-26", 0.1513900479151639], ["2022-06-26", 0.16253504345021405], ["2022-06-26", 0.17496024716252973], ["2022-06-26", 0.1887320073369068], ["2022-06-26", 0.20402742027075135], ["2022-06-26", 0.79676449... | https://manifold.markets/DrazenPoljak/will-poland-control-a-polish-speaki | Part of the Polish laws implemented in Polish speaking area, presence of Polish police on the ground ( min 1000 Police officers),
Ukraine-Polish border will disappear. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will Poland control a Polish speaking part of Ukraine till December 01.2022.? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-06-26 | ["https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox", "https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO"] | BINARY | [["2022-06-26", 0.3127137051222292], ["2022-06-26", 0.3652058570801735], ["2022-06-26", 0.40106153882245144], ["2022-06-26", 0.4045997251386695], ["2022-06-26", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-06-26", 0.5875542628099387], ["2022-06-26", 0.6016335152227228], ["2022-06-26", 0.6023032837305583], ["2022-06-26", 0.630468009045... | https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-there-be-100000-confirmed-case | This question resolves to YES if there are >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year end, using reported confirmed cases from Our World in Data:
https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox
Jul 9, 7:03am:
My Policy = “Betting as usual”
Applying the joy_void_joy ontology
https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-06-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-28", 0.5156092108432235], ["2022-06-28", 0.5232313043442807], ["2022-06-29", 0.5307340772410032], ["2022-06-29", 0.5453885754680181], ["2022-06-30", 0.5436789529478001], ["2022-06-30", 0.5579155358615471], ["2022-07-03", 0.4357973001446951], ["2022-07-03", 0.562092447498022], ["2022-07-28", 0.396493829531223... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-acx-write-about-afropolitian-a | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will ACX write about Afropolitian again before the end of the year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-06-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-06-28", 0.13644425415181435], ["2022-06-28", 0.14189205372209113], ["2022-06-28", 0.1461467313867506], ["2022-06-28", 0.15857415252237014], ["2022-06-28", 0.20323550930818637], ["2022-06-28", 0.32793106859581167], ["2022-06-28", 0.3594765529774983], ["2022-06-28", 0.43400129536940185], ["2022-06-28", 0.43813853... | https://manifold.markets/SarahC/will-wildtype-salmon-have-a-culture | This question resolves to "Yes" if there is a link to a news story about, or a grocery store or restaurant carrying, a Wildtype Salmon product/dish, consisting mostly of lab-grown cellular material. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Wildtype Salmon have a cultured-fish product available to the public in a store or restaurant by 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-28 | 2022-08-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-01", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-08-06", 0.18819560021857676], ["2022-08-08", 0.15090573426878925], ["2022-08-08", 0.16209834973370096], ["2022-08-08", 0.17447676226446812], ["2022-08-10", 0.07300676597406372], ["2022-08-18", 0.07300676597406372], ["2022-08-18", 0.07300676597406372], ["2022-08-18", 0.073006... | https://manifold.markets/BenLutz/will-the-baltimore-orioles-make-it | Will the Baltimore Orioles of the MLB play in the Wildcard series? | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-30 | Will the Baltimore Orioles make it to the wildcard games? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-22 | 2022-08-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-02", 0.31210179320024395], ["2022-08-02", 0.3276378964027163], ["2022-08-02", 0.3299999999999999], ["2022-08-02", 0.3299999999999999], ["2022-08-02", 0.3299999999999999], ["2022-08-02", 0.33000000000000007], ["2022-08-02", 0.33000000000000007], ["2022-08-02", 0.33000000000000007], ["2022-08-02", 0.3591490700... | https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-there-be-at-least-10-cases-of | A case of Polio was just identified in New York. Will it spread? | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be at least 10 cases of Polio in the USA in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-29 | 2022-08-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-02", 0.1745575051343996], ["2022-08-02", 0.1745575051343996], ["2022-08-02", 0.1745575051343996], ["2022-08-02", 0.1861371806480419], ["2022-08-02", 0.19280839261464836], ["2022-08-02", 0.19784615065726793], ["2022-08-02", 0.22284498967785063], ["2022-08-02", 0.24202532202747082], ["2022-08-02", 0.2830713179... | https://manifold.markets/theincredibleholk/will-google-announce-stadias-shutdo | Resolves to yes if Google announces a plan to shut down Stadia this year. Note that Stadia does not need to actually be shut down, just that Google has announced they will shut it down. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-29 | Will Google announce Stadia's shutdown this year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-08 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.33953106567305635], ["2022-08-03", 0.3613436439023441], ["2022-08-03", 0.3967584437997716], ["2022-08-03", 0.4092457855270179], ["2022-08-03", 0.45], ["2022-08-03", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-03", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-04", 0.3266226670298212], ["2022-08-04", 0.3580149867365523], ["2022-0... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-the-reproductive-freedom-for-a | Question resolves to YES if the US president signs into law a bill branded "Reproductive Freedom for All Act". Purely executive action does not count. Such a bill has currently been introduced in the Senate at time of this market's creation. Also should note, I'm resolving based on what passes into law, not what takes ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-08 | Will the Reproductive Freedom for All Act pass into law before the midterms? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-13 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.39415061067578805], ["2022-08-03", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-03", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-03", 0.5], ["2022-08-03", 0.5], ["2022-08-18", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-18", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-18", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-18", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-18", 0.4767554... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-john-gibbs-be-elected-to-the-u | Will resolve after 2+ reliable networks call the race, or (if close) to whoever is sworn in in 2023. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-14 | Will John Gibbs be elected to the US House of Representatives (MI-3) in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.31312956609337933], ["2022-08-03", 0.3429371547584244], ["2022-08-03", 0.3762313635643075], ["2022-08-03", 0.413336724035514], ["2022-08-03", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-08-05", 0.3497930996570129], ["2022-08-05", 0.38388067746331905], ["2022-08-07", 0.3192639522913573], ["2022-08-09", 0.383205916996... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-more-than-510-of-bidens-politi | The screenshot shows where Biden's political appointments stand as of August 3rd. Roughly 73 percent of appointments have been confirmed to date. 510 is approximately 90 percent of all appointments. Resolves YES if >= 510 appointees are confirmed by the Senate at the end of 2022. Aug 3, 3:51pm: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will >= 510 of Biden's political appointees be confirmed by the Senate by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-19", 0.50472990237379... | https://manifold.markets/IngaWei/will-lady-gaga-release-a-new-album | Close date updated to 2022-12-30 1:59 am Close date updated to 2022-10-05 1:59 am Close date updated to 2022-09-16 1:59 am Close date updated to 2022-12-31 12:59 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Lady Gaga release a new album this year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-04 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.3762313635643075], ["2022-08-03", 0.413336724035514], ["2022-08-03", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-08-04", 0.8834865183427992], ["2022-08-04", 0.9027665435611886], ["2022-08-04", 0.9847636981702503]] | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-senate-pass-the-veteran | Chuck Schumer predicted today that the Senate would pass veterans health legislation by next Tuesday. Resolves YES if that happens, NO if it does not. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-04 | Will the US Senate pass the veterans health bill by August 9? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.5], ["2022-08-03", 0.6000000000000001], ["2022-08-03", 0.6000000000000001], ["2022-08-03", 0.6131683203292013], ["2022-08-03", 0.6678990240405311], ["2022-08-03", 0.670907101940899], ["2022-08-05", 0.6475610140555821], ["2022-08-05", 0.6783682138267707], ["2022-08-05", 0.7059261685961332], ["2022-08-0... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-ron-johnson-be-reelected-in-th | Resolves YES if Johnson is reelected. Resolves NO if not. Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Ron Johnson be re-elected in the Wisconsin US Senate race? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-27", 0.5557608912282244], ["2022-10-27", 0.5566400066443684], ["2022-10-27", 0.5575118990993478], ["2022-10-27", 0.5576501715061116], ["2022-10-27", 0.5583797234442153], ["2022-10-27", 0.5585327639836918], ["2022-10-27", 0.5604580525280722], ["2022-10-28", 0.5435904901331702], ["2022-10-28", 0.54502924807660... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-oz-be-elected-to-the-us-sen | Will resolve after 2+ reliable networks call the race, or (if close) to whoever is sworn in in 2023. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Dr. Oz be elected to the US Senate (PA) in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-13 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.6989647686301923], ["2022-08-03", 0.7186909516417345], ["2022-08-03", 0.7376396890570354], ["2022-08-03", 0.7380029588419734], ["2022-08-03", 0.7568305981213418], ["2022-08-03", 0.7751079167358835], ["2022-08-03", 0.8013751316208046], ["2022-08-03", 0.8260872970624125], ["2022-08-18", 0.73763968905703... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-an-alpha-of-our-forec | A version that my forecasting WhatsApp can use that allows them to collaboratively write and rank questions? | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-13 | Will there be an alpha of our forecasting question generation platform before September 15th? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-05 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.12886597938144337], ["2022-09-29", 0.16], ["2022-09-29", 0.16], ["2022-09-29", 0.16], ["2022-09-29", 0.16], ["2022-09-29", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-03", 0.13592695723842588], ["2022-10-03", 0.13592695723842588], ["2022-10-03", 0.13592695723842588], ["2022-10-03", 0.13592695723842588], ["2022-10-... | https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-jacob-degrom-miss-a-meaningful | This resolves to YES if Jacob DeGrom misses a meaningful start for non-strategic reasons after his return on 8/2, during either the regular season or the playoffs. If the Mets regular season fate (division winner vs. wildcard vs. miss) has already been decided then any miss does not count. If DeGrom is rested in order ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-05 | Will Jacob DeGrom miss a meaningful start in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-24 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.1730252842498125], ["2022-08-03", 0.18658548939661626], ["2022-08-03", 0.2016414567346681], ["2022-08-03", 0.2016414567346681], ["2022-08-03", 0.2016414567346681], ["2022-08-03", 0.20323550930818637], ["2022-08-03", 0.23210544891869267], ["2022-08-04", 0.2767598678115713], ["2022-08-04", 0.30226899274... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-ukrain | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.5047299023737911], ["2022-08-03", 0.5497675936940453], ["2022-08-03", 0.5905444797450807], ["2022-08-04", 0.660300277146842], ["2022-08-18", 0.660300277146842], ["2022-08-18", 0.660300277146842], ["2022-08-18", 0.660300277146842], ["2022-08-18", 0.660300277146842], ["2022-08-18", 0.660300277146842], [... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-australia-go-into-recession-du | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Australia go into recession during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-03 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.2124565766678888], ["2022-08-03", 0.232563265745798], ["2022-08-03", 0.2928087807645008], ["2022-08-03", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-08-03", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-08-03", 0.33277317849759475], ["2022-08-03", 0.4357529532288385], ["2022-08-03", 0.5335674035598224], ["2022-08-03", 0.533567403559... | https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/10-does-lotr-have-more-words-than-h | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-03 | 10) Does LOTR have more words than HPMOR? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-03 | 2022-08-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-03", 0.1766075155578195], ["2022-08-03", 0.20608370802033757], ["2022-08-03", 0.20772543857073067], ["2022-08-03", 0.22516717475454123], ["2022-08-03", 0.4676104415262013], ["2022-08-03", 0.5014731147003341], ["2022-08-03", 0.5205319493256808], ["2022-08-03", 0.5205319493256808], ["2022-08-03", 0.54593858818... | https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/13-does-the-nyc-subway-have-more-to | Details: For NYC we measure | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-03 | 13) Does the NYC subway have more total route length than the London underground? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-27 | 2022-08-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-04", 0.3046717870331098], ["2022-08-04", 0.3939792194125585], ["2022-08-04", 0.4019567536031066], ["2022-08-04", 0.42139863348492], ["2022-08-18", 0.3046717870331098], ["2022-08-18", 0.3046717870331098], ["2022-08-18", 0.3046717870331098], ["2022-08-18", 0.3046717870331098], ["2022-08-18", 0.3046717870331098... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-the-taiwan-policy-act-of-2022 | Question resolves to YES if a bill branded the "Taiwan Policy Act of 2022" passes Congress and is signed into law before the end of 2022. The proposed deal provides roughly $4.5 billion in security assistance over four years, and designates Taiwan as a "Major Non-NATO Ally". More info: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 pass into law in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-30 | 2022-08-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-29", 0.75], ["2022-09-29", 0.8], ["2022-09-29", 0.8], ["2022-09-29", 0.8], ["2022-09-29", 0.8], ["2022-09-29", 0.8], ["2022-09-29", 0.8412829192849943], ["2022-09-29", 0.8412829192849943], ["2022-09-30", 0.7463857948189568], ["2022-09-30", 0.7463857948189568], ["2022-09-30", 0.7463857948189568], ["2022-09-30... | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-lula-da-silva-win-the-2022-bra | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-30 | Will Lula da Silva win the 2022 Brazil presidential election? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-08-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-20", 0.3422896337493581], ["2022-10-20", 0.34268578973044583], ["2022-10-20", 0.34308126503831027], ["2022-10-20", 0.3443616086311516], ["2022-10-20", 0.3470324311471129], ["2022-10-20", 0.3489295753041416], ["2022-10-20", 0.35097888490337004], ["2022-10-20", 0.351963877868855], ["2022-10-20", 0.353857737304... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-blake-masters-win-the-arizona | Resolves YES if Blake Masters defeats Scott Kelly in the Arizona Senate race. Resolves NO if he does not. Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-11 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | Will Blake Masters win the Arizona Senate seat? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-05", 0.507511140150115], ["2022-08-05", 0.507860778311957], ["2022-08-05", 0.5156023346323629], ["2022-08-06", 0.5152580421657798], ["2022-08-07", 0.5152580421657798], ["2022-08-07", 0.576892257446283], ["2022-08-07", 0.576892257446283], ["2022-08-07", 0.576892257446283], ["2022-08-07", 0.6536202663602533], ... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-any-executives-from-china-ever | Resolves YES if any senior executives of China Evergrande are charged with crimes by any Chinese court for defrauding customers or the government by the end of 2022. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will any executives from China Evergrande face criminal charges in China before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-05", 0.20323550930818632], ["2022-08-05", 0.3125179930351361], ["2022-08-05", 0.3125179930351361], ["2022-08-05", 0.3184466009613281], ["2022-08-05", 0.3478257438220972], ["2022-08-05", 0.4046191815904147], ["2022-08-05", 0.4046191815904147], ["2022-08-05", 0.4046191815904147], ["2022-08-05", 0.4046191815904... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-more-than-100-chinese-military | Resolves YES if Taiwan reports more than 100 Chinese military aircraft have crossed into their Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) within a 24 hour period by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. Aug 5, 5:15pm: Aug 5, 5:15pm: Aug 5, 5:15pm: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will more than 100 Chinese military aircraft cross into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a single day during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-05", 0.4853393980716938], ["2022-08-05", 0.5321183384256649], ["2022-08-05", 0.5321183384256649], ["2022-08-05", 0.5321183384256649], ["2022-08-05", 0.5321183384256649], ["2022-08-05", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-05", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-06", 0.52], ["2022-08-06", 0.52], ["2022-08-07", 0.52], ["... | https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-the-sp-500-end-the-year-more-t | The last trading day of 2022 is December 30. The S&P 500’s all-time intraday high is 4818.62. Bet resolves as YES if the S&P 500 closes on December 30, 2022, below 3854.90. Resolves as NO if it closes at exactly 3854.90, or higher. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-30 | Will the S&P 500 end the year more than 20% below its all-time high? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.7399830185822792], ["2022-10-02", 0.73998301858227... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-john-fetterman-win-the-pennsyl | Resolves YES if Fetterman wins. Resolves NO if not. Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will John Fetterman win the Pennsylvania Senate race? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-25 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-05", 0.1866987819123007], ["2022-08-05", 0.1901652884849894], ["2022-08-05", 0.19372295191083663], ["2022-08-05", 0.20077061522587691], ["2022-08-05", 0.20691084205728194], ["2022-08-05", 0.20691084205728194], ["2022-08-05", 0.21503045723660866], ["2022-08-05", 0.25686579825794964], ["2022-08-05", 0.40098729... | https://manifold.markets/annoyingbunny_42/will-what-we-owe-the-future-by-will | Question resolves yes if WWOTF reaches top 10 on any of Amazon (overall), NYT, Barnes and Noble, or any other major US bestseller list before September 17th, 2022 (edited as a similar question already running). Aug 4, 6:27pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-25 | Will "What We Owe The Future", by Will MacAskill, reach a top 10 position on any large US bestseller list within a month of launch? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-13 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-05", 0.534219315492651], ["2022-08-05", 0.586844305479837], ["2022-08-06", 0.7078407427512424], ["2022-08-11", 0.7322806921140209], ["2022-08-11", 0.7642179343814431], ["2022-08-18", 0.7642179343814431], ["2022-08-18", 0.7642179343814431], ["2022-08-18", 0.7642179343814431], ["2022-08-18", 0.7642179343814431... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-there-be-a-doctor-who-new-year | Resolves YES if a Doctor Who episode is announced to air on Christmas 2022, New Year's 2023, or sometime around then. Close date updated to 2023-01-07 12:00 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-06 | Will there be a Doctor Who New Year/Christmas/holiday special in 2022/23? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-30 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-08", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-08", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-09", 0.5905463580329986], ["2022-08-10", 0.49190046451238406], ["2022-08-10", 0.49190046451238406], ["2022-08-10", 0.5943889575659613], ["2022-08-12", 0.5380972424528606], ["2022-08-17", 0.48930212818320273], ["2022-08-18", 0.489302128183... | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-fernando-haddad-be-elected-gov | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-30 | Will Fernando Haddad be elected governor of São Paulo in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-05", 0.586844305479837], ["2022-08-05", 0.6239313271614302], ["2022-08-05", 0.6870924502637121], ["2022-08-05", 0.7376031669289959], ["2022-08-06", 0.6709041552132187], ["2022-08-08", 0.699251202001059], ["2022-08-09", 0.7019121310705518], ["2022-08-10", 0.7269789396412606], ["2022-08-10", 0.7293323844923015... | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/lula-vai-ser-eleito-presidente-do-b | Aug 4, 9:46pm: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-31 | Lula vai ser eleito presidente do Brasil em 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-08-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-23", 0.5346742382961795], ["2022-10-23", 0.5358443103052315], ["2022-10-23", 0.5370198647500719], ["2022-10-24", 0.42526560485990583], ["2022-10-24", 0.42526560485990583], ["2022-10-24", 0.42526560485990583], ["2022-10-24", 0.43612739176638515], ["2022-10-24", 0.43731049173374315], ["2022-10-24", 0.437310491... | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-raphael-warnock-be-reelected-t | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | Will Raphael Warnock be reelected to the US Senate? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-30 | 2022-08-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-06", 0.47930831193576967], ["2022-08-06", 0.4798149207992959], ["2022-08-06", 0.5122636775753857], ["2022-08-06", 0.5681870101710729], ["2022-08-06", 0.5681870101710729], ["2022-08-06", 0.5681870101710729], ["2022-08-06", 0.5681870101710729], ["2022-08-06", 0.5821158707105425], ["2022-08-06", 0.5821158707105... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-nasas-artemis-i-launch-in-augu | R | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will NASA's Artemis I launch in August EDT? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-06", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-06", 0.5576538756565425], ["2022-08-06", 0.5694761254414658], ["2022-08-06", 0.5809411003684241], ["2022-08-07", 0.5809411003684241], ["2022-08-07", 0.5809411003684242], ["2022-08-07", 0.5809411003684242], ["2022-08-07", 0.5809411003684242], ["2022-08-07", 0.58489342060819... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-karen-bass-be-elected-mayor-of | Resolves YES if Karen Bass is elected. Resolves NO if not. Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Karen Bass be elected Mayor of Los Angeles? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-14 | 2022-08-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-07", 0.2673589278136145], ["2022-08-07", 0.3665232820641977], ["2022-08-07", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-07", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-07", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-07", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-07", 0.5905463580329986], ["2022-08-08", 0.16559884206016237], ["2022-08-08", 0.1656708831431963... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delegation-of-us-senators-vi | Resolves YES if a delegation of US Senators from any party make a formal political visit to Taiwan, similar to that taken by Speaker Pelosi earlier this month, by the end of 2022? Resolves NO if not. See the following related markets for arbitrage opportunities: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-14 | Will a delegation of US Senators visit Taiwan by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-14 | 2022-08-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-07", 0.2663509159417663], ["2022-08-07", 0.36503094073852727], ["2022-08-07", 0.36503094073852727], ["2022-08-07", 0.36503094073852727], ["2022-08-07", 0.36503094073852727], ["2022-08-07", 0.36503094073852727], ["2022-08-07", 0.46254189982693406], ["2022-08-07", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-07", 0.58666327... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-gop-congressional-delegation | Aug 15, 9:11am: Resolves YES if a delegation of GOP Congressman and/or Senators make a formal political visit to Taiwan similar to the visit made by Speaker Pelosi earlier this month. Resolves NO if not. Aug 7, 8:59am: See the related questions below for arbitrage opportunities: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-14 | Will a GOP-led Congressional delegation visit Taiwan by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-07", 0.17000000000000007], ["2022-08-07", 0.17000000000000007], ["2022-08-07", 0.17000000000000007], ["2022-08-07", 0.1999999999999999], ["2022-08-07", 0.20000000000000004], ["2022-08-07", 0.20000000000000004], ["2022-08-07", 0.20000000000000004], ["2022-08-07", 0.20000000000000004], ["2022-08-07", 0.2000000... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-chinas-fda-grant-approval-to-a | Resolves YES if China approves a COVID vaccine based on mRNA technology by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will China's FDA grant approval to an mRNA COVID vaccine by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-08-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-07", 0.3943127765030776], ["2022-08-07", 0.4334354432298816], ["2022-08-07", 0.4767554084734187], ["2022-08-18", 0.3943127765030776], ["2022-08-18", 0.3943127765030776], ["2022-08-18", 0.3943127765030776], ["2022-08-18", 0.3943127765030776], ["2022-08-18", 0.3943127765030776], ["2022-08-18", 0.39431277650307... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-there-be-a-serious-incident-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be a serious incident involving leakage of radioactive material at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant during 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-31 | 2022-08-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-07", 0.3896023914561144], ["2022-08-07", 0.4590893468697198], ["2022-08-07", 0.4735022205847094], ["2022-08-07", 0.5328945799444219], ["2022-08-07", 0.5328945799444219], ["2022-08-07", 0.5328945799444219], ["2022-08-07", 0.5328945799444219], ["2022-08-07", 0.5328945799444219], ["2022-08-07", 0.53289457994442... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-100-palestinians-be-killed-in | Resolves if the number of Palestinians killed as a direct result of IDF actions against "militant Islamists" in Gaza is greater than 100. Will update with the official sources I will use to confirm the casualty figures at the end of the month. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will >= 100 Palestinians be killed in the ongoing IDF operation in Gaza before the end of August? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-12 | 2022-08-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-08", 0.7148032624980152], ["2022-08-08", 0.7959505122848304], ["2022-08-09", 0.8487650114599127], ["2022-08-11", 0.790850185601222], ["2022-08-12", 0.8066617041635444], ["2022-08-18", 0.8066617041635444], ["2022-08-18", 0.8066617041635444], ["2022-08-18", 0.8066617041635444], ["2022-08-18", 0.806661704163544... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-dr-p-resolve-their-911-trump-m-10858d9fab56 | Resolves YES if this market: See | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-12 | Will Dr P resolve their 9/11 Trump market within 1 month? (Any resolution, not necessarily accurate) | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-12 | 2022-08-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-08", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.41315569452016315], ["2022-08-18", 0.413155... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-dr-p-resolve-their-911-trump-m-b77c8c8bf248 | Resolves YES if this market: See | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-12 | Will Dr P resolve their 9/11 Trump market within 1 *week*? (Any resolution, not necessarily accurate) | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-15", 0.36000000000000004], ["2022-08-15", 0.36000000000000004], ["2022-08-15", 0.36000000000000004], ["2022-08-15", 0.38140077639291087], ["2022-08-15", 0.3879261535392868], ["2022-08-15", 0.3976320300192659], ["2022-08-15", 0.3976320300192659], ["2022-08-15", 0.40682327611002167], ["2022-08-15", 0.418010401... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-fo | Aug 17, 12:29am: Resolves YES if Trump is charged. Resolves NOif not. Aug 8, 7:46pm: Aug 8, 8:45pm: clarifying that it resolves NO if no charges by end of the year. Sep 19, 11:08am: Removed 'classified' from question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2022 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-15 | 2022-08-08 | ["https://manifold.markets/jack/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar", "https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden"] | BINARY | [["2022-08-08", 0.31790086059751593], ["2022-08-08", 0.3812453618939917], ["2022-08-08", 0.3812453618939917], ["2022-08-08", 0.4360623138115973], ["2022-08-08", 0.43950107733876603], ["2022-08-08", 0.43950107733876603], ["2022-08-08", 0.4608905526726106], ["2022-08-08", 0.46529604738081476], ["2022-08-08", 0.4652960473... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar-8278c28d9472 | Market trusts the king of pampu about 85% to resolve by the end of the month. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-dr-p-resolve-his-731-trump-mar And let's face it - Dr P hasn't steered us wrong yet (look at his market resolution history). The question is... will he wait the full month, or will he resolve sooner all the... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-16 | Will Dr P resolve his 7/31 Trump market accurately by August 15th? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-08-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-08", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-08-08", 0.5703739260913709], ["2022-08-08", 0.6091172422386223], ["2022-08-08", 0.7032675290591278], ["2022-08-09", 0.750534954325565], ["2022-08-09", 0.7742278800742992], ["2022-08-09", 0.8460381552025478], ["2022-08-09", 0.8552584879535554], ["2022-08-09", 0.85525848795355... | https://manifold.markets/MarketManagerBot/will-marjorie-taylor-green-be-reele | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Marjorie Taylor Green be reelected? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-29 | 2022-08-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-09", 0.37608639731774635], ["2022-08-09", 0.45453187572176634], ["2022-08-10", 0.34280725691412517], ["2022-08-12", 0.10836256885518412], ["2022-08-12", 0.1307249556985403], ["2022-08-15", 0.12241646944679506], ["2022-08-18", 0.12241646944679506], ["2022-08-18", 0.12241646944679506], ["2022-08-18", 0.1224164... | https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-roger-federer-announce-his-ret | Will resolve as YES if an announcement of retirement from professional tennis happens and goes into effect before the start of the US Open. Will resolve as NO if no such announcement of retirement comes, or if he announces his plans to retire AFTER the US Open (that is, the announcement comes before the start of the Op... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-29 | Will Roger Federer announce his retirement from professional tennis before the start of the US Open (August 29)? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-19", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-19", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-19", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-19", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-19", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-19", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-19", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-19", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-19", 0.623768636435692... | https://manifold.markets/barak/will-ca-prop-28-win-arts-and-music | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will CA Prop 28 win? (Arts and Music Education Funding, Nov 2022) | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-24 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.4960607662556291], ["2022-08-24", 0.5418846239553986], ["2022-08-24", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-31", 0.49036343078445244], ["2022-09-03", 0.686823896163083], ["2022-09-03", 0.7142263921842065], ["2022-09-06", 0.055719247467085044], ["2022-09-06", 0.06011976967684466], ["2022-09-06", 0.44503941965... | https://manifold.markets/Curlew/will-the-character-wilbur-die-inbef | Aug 24, 10:57am: Contingent on the streamer Wilbur doing or appearing on some kind of Dream SMP lore stream before the Season 1 finale. Aug 24, 10:51am: "S1 finale" here refers to the "S1S4 finale", the storyline reboot indicated to happen in late 2022. Aug 24, 10:43pm: okay, specifically what streamer-Wilbur declare... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-24 | Will the character Wilbur be dead in/during the S1 finale? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-25 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-24", 0.7211075812771763], ["2022-08-24", 0.8916586128486736], ["2022-08-25", 0.9307122482180537], ["2022-08-25", 0.930800306254084], ["2022-08-25", 0.930800306254084], ["2022-08-25", 0.930800306254084], ["2022-08-25", 0.930800306254084], ["2022-08-25", 0.930800306254084], ... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-00d633e071ba | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-25 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $8 on August 25, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.5454681242782337], ["2022-08-24", 0.586663275964486], ["2022-08-24", 0.6237686364356926], ["2022-08-24", 0.6869621266050449], ["2022-09-04", 0.7603833482016211], ["2022-09-06", 0.7833277214198677], ["2022-09-06", 0.7936881480035475], ["2022-09-28", 0.7936881480035475], ["2022-09-28", 0.793688148003547... | https://manifold.markets/a/will-maggie-hassan-the-us-senator-f | This question resolves to YES if Senator Hassan wins her election in 2022 and NO if someone else wins (or if Ms. Hassan drops out). If the election is not held, it will resolve AMBIGUOUS. I will resolve this once the race is called by multiple major media sources. Close date updated to 2022-11-08 12:00 pm Close date up... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Maggie Hassan, the U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, be reelected in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.25011095898905... | https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-justin-fields-finish-as-a-top8 | This market resolves YES if Justin Fields finishes as a top-8 fantasy quarterback in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) according to The Bold Prediction from JJ Zachariason: Justin Fields Will Finish as a Top-8 Quarterback Why This Is Bold: Context: In his August 23rd, 2022 Why share a bunch of fantasy football bold predictions if ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will Justin Fields finish as a top-8 fantasy quarterback in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.25011095898905... | https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-christian-kirk-outscore-dk-met | This market resolves YES if Christian Kirk outscores DK Metcalf in fantasy in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) according to The Bold Prediction from JJ Zachariason: Christian Kirk Will Outscore DK Metcalf Why This Is Bold: Context: In his August 23rd, 2022 Why share a bunch of fantasy football bold predictions if they’re not actu... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will Christian Kirk outscore DK Metcalf in fantasy in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-06 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.25011095898905... | https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-trey-lance-be-a-top3-quarterba | This market resolves YES if Trey Lance finishes as a top-3 quarterback in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) according to The Bold Prediction from JJ Zachariason: Trey Lance Will Be a Top-3 Quarterback Why This Is Bold: Context: In his August 23rd, 2022 Why share a bunch of fantasy football bold predictions if they’re not actually... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will Trey Lance be a top-3 fantasy quarterback in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2022-08-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-24", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.2501109589890544], ["2022-08-25", 0.25011095898905... | https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-rhamondre-stevenson-scores-40 | This market resolves YES if Rhamondre Stevenson scores 40 or more PPR points than Damien Harris in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) according to The Bold Prediction from JJ Zachariason: Rhamondre Stevenson Scores 40 More PPR Points Than Damien Harris Why This Is Bold: Context: In his August 23rd, 2022 Why share a bunch of fantasy... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will Rhamondre Stevenson score 40 more PPR points than Damien Harris in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-26 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-25", 0.8151571164510165], ["2022-08-26", 0.8579957759110456], ["2022-08-26", 0.858419250347697], ["2022-08-26", 0.8639529821506312], ["2022-08-26", 0.8800034442315985], ["2022-08-26", 0.8874530893821537], ["2022-08-26", 0.9013273968926788], ["2022-08-26", 0.901913396267368... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-4ade81bd0cc1 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-26 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $9 on August 26, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-27 | 2022-08-25 | ["https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/planecrash-will-the-story-resume-by-1d8822080229", "https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/planecrash-will-the-story-resume-by"] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.6866361947130706], ["2022-08-25", 0.6930178875616976], ["2022-08-25", 0.6994214661946291], ["2022-08-25", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-08-26", 0.38827086773960584], ["2022-08-26", 0.40037906202359347], ["2022-08-26", 0.4283605494957723], ["2022-08-26", 0.46254127205704093], ["2022-08-26", 0.46787615588... | https://manifold.markets/Multicore/planecrash-will-the-story-resume-by-2d10ccd654f1 | Based on the This resolves YES if the story resumes on or before Aug 26 (Pacific time). Previous markets: https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/planecrash-will-the-story-resume-by-1d8822080229 https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/planecrash-will-the-story-resume-by Aug 25, 8:21am: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-27 | [Planecrash] Will the story resume by Aug 26? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-03 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.1686795762769045], ["2022-08-25", 0.25262732417138256], ["2022-08-25", 0.27590773645293026], ["2022-08-25", 0.30207829869502195], ["2022-08-25", 0.33152101843256865], ["2022-08-25", 0.36464410735122527], ["2022-08-25", 0.3681749567394426], ["2022-08-25", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-08-25", 0.409836065... | https://manifold.markets/ThiagoSantos/will-jair-bolsonaro-be-reelected-pr-218cfec9e2e1 | Brazilian presidential elections can have 2 rounds. A candidate wins in the first round if he receives more votes than all the others combined. Resolves yes if Bolsonaro wins reelection in the first round, scheduled for Oct 02, 2022. Void if he doesn't run (death, court order, etc) | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-03 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be reelected president of Brazil in the first round? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.5415944540727903], ["2022-08-25", 0.5415944540727903], ["2022-08-25", 0.5415944540727903], ["2022-08-25", 0.6235304164650289], ["2022-08-25", 0.6257659921289741], ["2022-08-25", 0.6599502541169683], ["2022-08-25", 0.7042451067494045], ["2022-08-25", 0.7222802222011329], ["2022-08-25", 0.76667273259931... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-least-an-hour-of-powe | There must be a single hour in which a million people concurrently lose power for the full hour. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will there be least an hour of power loss affecting at least one million people at once in the UK before April 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-25 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.7999999999999999], ["2022-08-25", 0.8], ["2022-08-25", 0.8151571164510165], ["2022-08-25", 0.9918032786885247], ["2022-08-25", 0.9953346351017942], ["2022-08-25", 0.9955196995514912], ["2022-08-25", 0.9961569501556435]] | https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/will-this-market-get-m1000-invested | Judged by M$x bet above the graph | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-25 | Will this market get >=M$1,000 invested in it in an hour? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-26 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.309593263250592], ["2022-08-25", 0.4933777738794847], ["2022-08-25", 0.49833611109573095], ["2022-08-25", 0.5], ["2022-08-25", 0.5], ["2022-08-25", 0.5033444441958798], ["2022-08-25", 0.5033444441958798], ["2022-08-25", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-25", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-08-26", 0.47405393... | https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-this-market-be-above-50-at-clo | Market CLOSES at 4pm ET on Friday August 26th. It will resolve YES if the value of the market is greater than 50% as displayed by Manifold, and resolve NO if otherwise (value of the market is displayed as 50% or less). | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-26 | Will this market be above 50% at close this Friday? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-25 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.01080089733855085], ["2022-08-25", 0.011027680581026392], ["2022-08-25", 0.0526937020487311], ["2022-08-25", 0.05910130554783951], ["2022-08-25", 0.10692785577570808], ["2022-08-25", 0.1138420555321546], ["2022-08-25", 0.228018971178402], ["2022-08-25", 0.24828682093554474], ["2022-08-25", 0.271032090... | https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-ape-and-amc-converge-in-price | For context: $APE is the newly issued set of preferred shares by AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. APE technically stands for AMC Preferred Equity units, and they are preferred shares which confer the exact same voting rights and dividend payouts as normal common stock, and AMC has specifically stated that the long-term... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-25 | Will $APE and $AMC converge in price (within 10 cents, inclusive) by market close on August 25th? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-07 | 2022-08-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-25", 0.5], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-25", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-... | https://manifold.markets/Charlie/emotional-insurance-will-orlando-ci | I'll be going to the game supporting Orlando City. I'll be betting against Orlando so that if we lose it won't hurt so bad. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-07 | [Emotional Insurance] Will Orlando City SC win the US Open Cup Final against lower division side Sacramento Republic FC? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-26", 0.3753612852370407], ["2022-08-26", 0.3979465955668751], ["2022-08-26", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-08-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-08-27", 0.3257984531061813], ["2022-08-27", 0.35820784364241587], ["2022-08-27", 0.3678922939285959], ["2022-08-27", 0.3678922939285959], ["2022-08-27", 0.3703358337246... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-saudi-arabia-announce-the-yuan | Resolves YES if Saudi Arabia announces they will accept Chinese Yuan as an alternative to the US Dollar to settle oil purchases by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Saudi Arabia announce the yuan will be accepted as alternative to the US dollar for oil purchases by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-26", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-08-26", 0.4382899048213448], ["2022-08-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-08-26", 0.49159723202937394], ["2022-08-27", 0.3169446559754445], ["2022-08-27", 0.33558241151141976], ["2022-08-27", 0.34856237279221086], ["2022-08-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2022-08-27", 0.34999999999... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-100-million-americans-get-one | Both Pfizer and Moderna submitted updated versions of their mRNA vaccines to the FDA for emergency authorization this week. Previous versions of the mRNA vaccines took approximately 1 month to be approved from the date of final submission. This question resolves YES if combined these two updated vaccines are administer... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will 100 million Americans get one of the updated mRNA Covid vaccines by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-08-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.4219652976854412], ["2022-08-27", 0.5099000196039991], ["2022-08-27", 0.5196003074558029], ["2022-08-27", 0.5238442469509567], ["2022-08-27", 0.5238442469509567], ["2022-08-27", 0.5238442469509567], ["2022-08-27", 0.5238442469509567], ["2022-08-27", 0.5291015257110563], ["2022-08-27", 0.56895242058407... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-xi-jinping-and-yoon-sukyeol-me | Resolves YES if Xi Jinping holds in person talks with newly elected South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol before the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will Xi Jinping and Yoon Suk-yeol meet face to face during 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-12 | 2022-08-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-26", 0.5694294940796555], ["2022-08-26", 0.7830802603036876], ["2022-08-26", 0.8108198856651313], ["2022-08-26", 0.8188168065078114], ["2022-08-26", 0.8251053603056633], ["2022-08-26", 0.8313530019443134], ["2022-08-26", 0.8419083255378857], ["2022-08-26", 0.8419083255378857], ["2022-08-26", 0.84190832553788... | https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-proof-school-host-an-official | Proof School hosted a (~high-school) dance last school year for the first time. It was fairly popular, but the student and teacher who really spearheaded the effort have both left the school. This market resolves YES if a dance is held which is promoted by the school as a Proof event (regardless of whether all student... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-14 | Will Proof School host an official dance this school year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-28 | 2022-08-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.4071407906578328], ["2022-08-27", 0.4494764829106243], ["2022-08-27", 0.5049795053159947], ["2022-08-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-27", 0.6684818217120472], ["2022-08-27", 0.6684818217120472], ["2022-08-27", 0.6684818217120472], ["2022-08-27", 0.6889413180018603], ["2022-08-27", 0.69463380005769... | https://manifold.markets/BramStolk/will-max-verstappen-win-the-2022-be | Sunday, Aug 28, Formula 1 races in Belgium. Will Max Verstappen win this race? Verstappen is leading the championship, and set the fastest lap during qualifying. Yet, due to grid penalties he will start at the back. He is projected to start from P15. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-28 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2022 Belgian Grand Prix F1 race? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-28 | 2022-08-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-27", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-08-27", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-08-27", 0.6621621621621622], ["2022-08-27", 0.6803536890060898], ["2022-08-27", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-08-27", 0.7084754227789509], ["2022-08-27", 0.7313633310946945], ["2022-08-27", 0.73838426119715... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-the-us-navy-make-a-maritime-tr-8ec0bdced265 | Aviation transit does not count as YES. Based on | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-28 | Will the US Navy make a maritime transit of the Taiwan strait by the end of September 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-31 | 2022-08-27 | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKZ8I22XU0w"] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.5367081780132396], ["2022-08-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-27", 0.559199284481487], ["2022-08-27", 0.5804895686621254], ["2022-08-28", 0.6233295631695027], ["2022-08-28", 0.6577829289084267], ["2022-08-28", 0.6735506687902909], ["2022-08-28", 0.68548746534076], ["2022-08-28", 0.7012723789461152]... | https://manifold.markets/RobinFoster/will-a-jellyfish-be-in-full-view-at | I will check the Monterey Bay Aquarium moon jellyfish livestream linked below at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday. Resolves YES if at least one jelly is in full view. Resolves NO if there is no jelly visible or the jelly is only partially in frame. If the stream is down resolves N/A. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKZ8I22XU0w ... | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-31 | Will a jellyfish be in full view at 18:00 UTC on August 31, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-29 | 2022-08-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-27", 0.7], ["2022-08-27", 0.7], ["2022-08-27", 0.7], ["2022-08-27", 0.7133508988643055], ["2022-08-27", 0.7259401771332606], ["2022-08-27", 0.7259401771332606], ["2022-08-27", 0.7490176189442064], ["2022-08-27", 0.7490176189442064], ["2022-08-28", 0.7], ["2022-08-28", 0.7]... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-the-second-episode-of-house-of | House of the Dragon is HBO's new show based on the Game of Thrones series. Episode 1 Episode 2 I will compare scores sometime on Monday. Resolution: Episode 2 has a score of 8.9/10. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-29 | Will the second episode of House of the Dragon have a higher score on imdb than the first? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-08-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-28", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-08-31", 0.5344418052256534], ["2022-09-03", 0.5084027679706259], ["2022-09-09", 0.4607977339356429], ["2022-09-14", 0.4172758086773015], ["2022-09-19", 0.4172758086773015], ["2022-09-19", 0.4172758086773015], ["2022-09-19", 0.41727580867730... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-devin-nunes-still-be-ceo-of-tr | Resolves YES if Devin Nunes is still CEO of the Trump Media and Technology Group (parent company of Truth Social) at the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Devin Nunes still be CEO of Trump Media and Technology Group at the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-27", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-08-27", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-08-27", 0.6282527881040894], ["2022-08-27", 0.6621621621621623], ["2022-08-27", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-08-27", 0.7191011235955057], ["2022-08-27", 0.7429305912596402], ["2022-08-27", 0.7641509433962266], ["2022-08-27", 0.78308026030368... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-it-be-revealed-that-kash-patel | Resolves YES if it is revealed that Kash Patel's home/residence was searched by the FBI before the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will it be revealed that Kash Patel's home was searched by the FBI before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-08-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.41965588869338366], ["2022-11-07", 0.4267331976990142], ["2022-11-07", 0.44763503662222054], ["2022-11-07", 0.4518907222871329], ["2022-11-07", 0.45189382398653827], ["2022-11-07", 0.45623243743611264], ["2022-11-07", 0.45837181458936943], ["2022-11-07", 0.46065297286823575], ["2022-11-07", 0.46847399... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-rafael-warnock-win-the-senate | Resolves YES if Warnock is reelected to the Senate. Resolves NO if not. Close date updated to 2022-12-06 11:59 pm Nov 20, 11:52pm: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | Will Rafael Warnock win the Senate seat in Georgia? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-08-28 | ["https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-offering-russia-100k-troops-help-beat-ukraine-reports-2022-8?amp", "https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/russian-proxy-leader-in-ukraines-eastern-donetsk-region-calls-for-north-korea-ties-01661667353"] | BINARY | [["2022-08-28", 0.22517273581661051], ["2022-08-28", 0.24509596926459978], ["2022-08-28", 0.27590773645293026], ["2022-08-28", 0.2925658964964831], ["2022-08-28", 0.3020782986950218], ["2022-08-28", 0.32081792238212814], ["2022-08-28", 0.40186465198521143], ["2022-08-28", 0.4058276855647092], ["2022-08-28", 0.409836065... | https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-personnel-from-north-korea-be | This question resolves to YES if at least 1000 persons from North Korea are sent to Russian-occupied Ukraine by the end of February 2023. Threshold is placement of personnel for any reason, for example, as soldiers, military support, general laborers, or in any other non-specific capacity. https://www.businessinsider.... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will personnel from North Korea be deployed to Russian-occupied Ukraine by end of February 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-21 | 2022-08-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.5411685165812586], ["2023-03-12", 0.5435108873811114], ["2023-03-12", 0.5442939734025345], ["2023-03-12", 0.5482266127368949], ["2023-03-12", 0.5565891558105059], ["2023-03-12", 0.5569900122231964], ["2023-03-12", 0.5573911541334152], ["2023-03-12", 0.5753276569070487], ["2023-03-12", 0.58477392036093... | https://manifold.markets/AlexL/will-arsenal-win-the-premier-league | Hopium | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-21 | Will Arsenal win the Premier League this season? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-08-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-29", 0.3841016114167023], ["2022-08-29", 0.391738980375058], ["2022-08-29", 0.391738980375058], ["2022-08-29", 0.391738980375058], ["2022-08-29", 0.391738980375058], ["2022-08-29", 0.391738980375058], ["2022-08-29", 0.4908775965803706], ["2022-08-29", 0.5424508862155326], ["2022-08-29", 0.5424508862155326], ... | https://manifold.markets/FutureOwl/will-over-250-us-starbucks-location | I will use this tracker unless convinced otherwise: Resolves yes if the total number of unionized Starbucks exceeds 250 at any time. Resolves no if this has not happened by the end of the year. Since I don't expect this question to be very subjective, I may decide to participate in this market. Sep 8, 12:03pm: Count i... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will over 250 US Starbucks locations be unionized by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-08-29 | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62706769"] | BINARY | [["2022-08-29", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-08-29", 0.25706940874035994], ["2022-08-29", 0.2808988764044944], ["2022-08-30", 0.17123287671232884], ["2022-08-30", 0.19221528111484873], ["2022-08-31", 0.1686795762769044], ["2022-09-05", 0.05882352941176466], ["2022-09-05", 0.09999999999999998], ["2022-09-11", 0.020000000... | https://manifold.markets/FutureOwl/will-over-25-million-workers-strike | Relevant article: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62706769 British unions are considering a large, coordinated strike this fall. Will the total number of striking workers in the UK at any time exceed 2.5 million? Resolves yes if: This strike actually happens, estimates of total workers on strike exceed 2.5 million. R... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will over 2.5 million workers strike at once in the UK by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-08-29 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-29", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-08-29", 0.5], ["2022-08-29", 0.5], ["2022-08-29", 0.5], ["2022-08-29", 0.5147750982580426], ["2022-08-30", 0.290768189433803], ["2022-08-30", 0.304368837103968], ["2022-08-30", 0.31999999999999995], ["2022-08-31", 0.3203872172349382], ["2022-08-31", 0.3203872172349382], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/will-there-be-official-confirmation | Resolves YES immediately upon confirmation by the studio that they are moving forward with a live-action movie adaptation of The Final Empire. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be official confirmation of a Mistborn movie by market close? | manifold | 0 |
2022-08-31 | 2022-08-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-30", 0.3062286322779221], ["2022-08-30", 0.571291388726328], ["2022-08-30", 0.571291388726328], ["2022-08-30", 0.5947419745362734], ["2022-08-30", 0.5979430758191822], ["2022-08-30", 0.6038282712396595], ["2022-08-30", 0.6097560975609757], ["2022-08-30", 0.6977863433945372], ["2022-08-30", 0.8030887307247179... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-5121876996eb | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-31 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $11 on August 31, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-07 | 2022-08-30 | ["https://www.macrumors.com/2022/08/29/iphone-14-satellite-hardware-tests/", "https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/did-elon-musk-just-upstage-tim-cooks-big-iphone-14-surprise/a/d-id/779976"] | BINARY | [["2022-08-30", 0.43107301365232475], ["2022-08-30", 0.47618408762387515], ["2022-08-30", 0.48054528087601944], ["2022-08-30", 0.49082682972554076], ["2022-08-30", 0.49082682972554076], ["2022-08-30", 0.49082682972554076], ["2022-08-30", 0.5009086267413176], ["2022-08-30", 0.5009086267413176], ["2022-08-30", 0.50090862... | https://manifold.markets/ChickenSharoofi/will-the-iphone-14-be-announced-wit | Many rumors floating that this will be announced at the upcoming "Far Out" event on September 14th. https://www.macrumors.com/2022/08/29/iphone-14-satellite-hardware-tests/ https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/did-elon-musk-just-upstage-tim-cooks-big-iphone-14-surprise/a/d-id/779976 | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-07 | Will the iPhone 14 be announced with satellite connectivity capabilities? | manifold | 1 |
2022-08-30 | 2022-08-30 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-30", 0.05096874171355885], ["2022-08-30", 0.08094098636056267], ["2022-08-30", 0.12781918982770432], ["2022-08-30", 0.40903729815853324], ["2022-08-30", 0.4461616463523942], ["2022-08-30", 0.456366524929482], ["2022-08-30", 0.46093440138996067], ["2022-08-30", 0.46093440138996067], ["2022-08-30", 0.460934401... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-f05af71242f9 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-08-30 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $13 on August 30, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-31 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-31", 0.13793103448275865], ["2022-08-31", 0.2], ["2022-09-01", 0.10000000000000002], ["2022-09-12", 0.09425070688030163], ["2022-09-19", 0.09425070688030163], ["2022-09-19", 0.09425070688030163], ["2022-09-19", 0.09425070688030163], ["2022-09-19", 0.09425070688030163], ["2022-09-19", 0.09425070688030163], ["... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-kalshi-market-on-control-of | Resolves YES if such market exists on Kalshi, and the volume traded on this market on the single day November 7 (the day before election day) is greater than the volume traded on the equivalent PredictIt market For background, Kalshi has Companion market on whether such market will exist: See also related markets: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will a Kalshi market on control of the US Senate after the 2022 US midterm elections have more volume traded on 11/7 than the equivalent PredictIt market? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-08-31 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-31", 0.8304146451516752], ["2022-08-31", 0.8500510030601836], ["2022-08-31", 0.8560910880917729], ["2022-08-31", 0.8620689655172413], ["2022-09-01", 0.8378171073063008], ["2022-09-07", 0.5309115758862448], ["2022-09-08", 0.5752932588334062], ["2022-09-10", 0.42666291116065636], ["2022-09-16", 0.4027542258229... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-kalshi-have-a-market-on-contro | Resolves YES if Kalshi has such a market by election day, November 8. For background, Kalshi has Companion market about trade volume on such a market: Other related markets: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Kalshi have a market on control of the US Senate after the 2022 US midterm elections? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-08-31 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-31", 0.3753612852370407], ["2022-08-31", 0.3940731399747795], ["2022-08-31", 0.4348582362149941], ["2022-08-31", 0.4435770049680625], ["2022-08-31", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-03", 0.3410524879778999], ["2022-09-05", 0.4017193794181682], ["2022-09-05", 0.48447862694840566], ["2022-09-05", 0.6583836134702... | https://manifold.markets/FutureOwl/will-any-more-major-us-politicians | In addition to the Nancy Pelosi's well-covered visit, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and Senator Ed Markey have visited recently as well. Resolves YES if any US governors, presidents, vice presidents, supreme court justices, or senate/house party leaders/whips, who are not Nancy Pelosi or Doug Ducey, visit Taiwan by the e... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will any more major US politicians visit Taiwan this year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-08-31 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-08-31", 0.22310853832023358], ["2022-08-31", 0.23345814830973607], ["2022-08-31", 0.23345814830973607], ["2022-08-31", 0.24278241696481534], ["2022-08-31", 0.2526273241713823], ["2022-08-31", 0.2526273241713823], ["2022-08-31", 0.2648511679379022], ["2022-08-31", 0.2759077364529302], ["2022-08-31", 0.2759077364... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-rafael-nadal-win-the-us-open | Resolves YES if Rafael Nadal wins the 2022 US Open. Resolves NO if not. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Rafael Nadal win the US Open? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-02 | 2022-09-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.5084027679706259], ["2022-09-01", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-09-02", 0.017638233439832226], ["2022-09-02", 0.017638233439832226], ["2022-09-02", 0.04367566430789272], ["2022-09-02", 0.04584285522873873], ["2022-09-02", 0.08009964146532064], ["2022-09-02", 0.10110207113412135], ["2022-09-02", 0.130824... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-51365e117497 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-02 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $9 on September 2, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-05 | 2022-09-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-09-01", 0.6365922665828355], ["2022-09-01", 0.7322021204958875], ["2022-09-01", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-09-01", 0.7745498974514075], ["2022-09-01", 0.7745498974514075], ["2022-09-01", 0.7745498974514075], ["2022-09-01", 0.7745498974514075], ["2022-09-02", 0.66], ["2022-09... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-stable-diffusion-have-more-goo | Stable Diffusion and DALL-E are two ML image generation models. DALL-E has been around for a while and is closed-source, while Stable Diffusion is open-source and was just publicly released. Resolves YES if at the end of October, Stable Diffusion is higher than DALL-E in this Google Trends comparison: Sep 2, 9:56pm: R... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-06 | Will Stable Diffusion have more Google Trends search interest than DALL-E, at the end of October? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-01 | 2022-09-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.032964794198593335], ["2022-09-01", 0.05], ["2022-09-01", 0.05], ["2022-09-01", 0.11563297722490772], ["2022-09-01", 0.12280706824962208], ["2022-09-01", 0.13783265952163576], ["2022-09-01", 0.3234633781909952], ["2022-09-01", 0.3287547031737426], ["2022-09-01", 0.35558122951178], ["2022-09-01", 0.384... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-2723b45162c4 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. This... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-01 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $9 on September 1, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-14 | 2022-09-01 | ["https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/01/china/china-covid-sichuan-lockdown-intl-hnk/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/chengdu-locks-down-21point2-million-people-as-chinese-cities-battle-covid-19.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-31/shanghai-s-two-month-lockdown-is-still-rippling-through-e... | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.520399666944213], ["2022-09-01", 0.5243757431629013], ["2022-09-01", 0.5622568093385213], ["2022-09-01", 0.5622568093385213], ["2022-09-01", 0.5622568093385213], ["2022-09-01", 0.6464348170015556], ["2022-09-01", 0.6464348170015556], ["2022-09-01", 0.652014447137821], ["2022-09-01", 0.6567832967871101... | https://manifold.markets/stormtk293/will-megacity-chengdus-lockdown-las | WILL RESOLVE "YES" if Chengdu's lockdown remains by 2022/09/30 23:59 (GMT+8). WILL RESOLVE "NO" if Chengdu says lockdown to ease before above deadline. Source will be confirmed according to Mayor/Vice Mayor/CDC at Chengdu's official news briefings. Chinese metropolis of Chengdu locks down 21 million residents https:/... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-14 | Will Megacity Chengdu's lockdown last over a month as Covid Zero Intensifies? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-09-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-01", 0.5], ["2022-09-01", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-09-02", 0.5420853080993369], ["2022-09-19", 0.5420853080993369], ["2022-09-19", 0.5420853080993369], ["2022-09-19", 0.5420853080993369], ["2022-09-19", 0.5420853080993369], ["2022-09-19", 0.5420853080993369], ["2022-09-... | https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-mary-peltola-win-reelection-in | Mary Peltola is the Democrat who just won Alaska's special election for former rep Don Young's at-large House seat. She won it in the first election under Alaska's new electoral system, where there is a nonpartisan primary and the top 4 then proceed to a ranked choice runoff. In this special election, her opponents wer... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | Will Mary Peltola win reelection in November? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-09-01 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/nvidia-stock-falls-after-us-government-restricts-chip-sales-to-china.html"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.39024390243902457], ["2022-09-01", 0.3966505068312032], ["2022-09-01", 0.40318064732892817], ["2022-09-01", 0.4756242568370986], ["2022-09-02", 0.33256351039260984], ["2022-09-04", 0.33256351039260984], ["2022-09-06", 0.3354638185624026], ["2022-09-06", 0.36907789513050376], ["2022-09-06", 0.406840970... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-lift-the-embargo-placed | Resolves YES if the ban on sales of certain Nvidia chips to China is lifted by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/nvidia-stock-falls-after-us-government-restricts-chip-sales-to-china.html | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the US lift the embargo placed on the sale of Nvidia chips to China by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-26 | 2022-09-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-01", 0.3684979900109636], ["2022-09-01", 0.4000000000000002], ["2022-09-01", 0.40680302467455426], ["2022-09-01", 0.427362021199977], ["2022-09-01", 0.427362021199977], ["2022-09-01", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-09", 0.36904408069020395], ["2022-09-09", 0.36904408069020395], ["2022-09-09", 0.3690440806902... | https://manifold.markets/Chocobo/will-bayonetta-3-receive-a-metacrit | This market resolves to "Yes" if Bayonetta 3 has a Metascore (Critic Reviews) of 90 or better on metacritic at October 31 23:59 (three days after release). Link: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-27 | Will Bayonetta 3 receive a Metacritic Score >= 90? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-01 | 2022-09-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.0942507068803016], ["2022-09-02", 0.13793103448275865], ["2022-09-02", 0.2], ["2022-09-03", 0.07163323782234961], ["2022-09-19", 0.07163323782234961], ["2022-09-19", 0.07163323782234961], ["2022-09-19", 0.07163323782234961], ["2022-09-19", 0.07163323782234961], ["2022-09-19", 0.07163323782234961], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/jack/what-fraction-of-the-us-population-ac19ba2e42ba | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-01 | What fraction of the US population will have received a bivalent Covid vaccine dose by end of October? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-05 | 2022-09-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-02", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-09-03", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-03", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-04", 0.9019714628036163], ["2022-09-04", 0.9019714628036163], ["2022-09-04", 0.9019714628036163], ["2022-09-04", 0.9019714628036167], ["2022-09-04", 0.93995160731381... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-shenzhen-have-another-city-wid | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-05 | Will Shenzhen have another city wide lockdown before the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-06 | 2022-09-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.18354468782234085], ["2022-09-02", 0.24791354135693028], ["2022-09-02", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-09-03", 0.3328571663339248], ["2022-09-03", 0.3328571663339248], ["2022-09-03", 0.3328571663339248], ["2022-09-03", 0.342791008373222], ["2022-09-03", 0.34901350659522196], ["2022-09-03", 0.377315594337... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-c4e541b0a510 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-06 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $9 on September 6, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-21 | 2022-09-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.1922152811148487], ["2022-09-02", 0.2082248828735035], ["2022-09-02", 0.25706940874036], ["2022-09-02", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-09-03", 0.17123287671232879], ["2022-09-03", 0.17123287671232879], ["2022-09-03", 0.17123287671232879], ["2022-09-05", 0.1906006063712882], ["2022-09-09", 0.1906006063712... | https://manifold.markets/jack/what-fraction-of-the-us-population | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | What fraction of the US population will have received a bivalent Covid vaccine dose by end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-27 | 2022-09-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.35146215581112816], ["2022-09-02", 0.3535244467162184], ["2022-09-02", 0.35711043001610593], ["2022-09-02", 0.38271451753797137], ["2022-09-02", 0.456228006186079], ["2022-09-02", 0.4716502306690304], ["2022-09-02", 0.5041493061533694], ["2022-09-03", 0.41219200885452845], ["2022-09-04", 0.41219200885... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-any-state-make-it-illegal-for | Resolves YES if any state bans the use of the phrase "Full Self Driving" in the marketing of Tesla's most advanced AI autopilot technology by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-27 | Will any state make it illegal for Tesla to refer to their AI driving systems as "Full Self Driving" by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-09-25 | 2022-09-02 | ["https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/argentina-mystery-pneumonia-death-two-people-covid-b1022386.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1662041835-2"] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.11534261473519704], ["2022-09-02", 0.11658020601233623], ["2022-09-02", 0.11783692860227764], ["2022-09-02", 0.11911315841958163], ["2022-09-02", 0.12172568703161207], ["2022-09-02", 0.1442036475956602], ["2022-09-02", 0.1442036475956602], ["2022-09-02", 0.1442036475956602], ["2022-09-02", 0.170162481... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-newly-discovered-contagiou | In the last week there has been an unknown virus causing deadly pneumonia in Argentina that is eerily reminiscent of the first cases of Covid in Wuhan in 2020. Covid, heptavirus and influenza have all been ruled out and it is already spreading to health workers. So far three of seven known cases have proven fatal. Res... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-26 | Will the newly discovered contagious acute pneumonia of unknown origin in Argentina lead to a global pandemic event by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-09-16 | 2022-09-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-02", 0.09425070688030164], ["2022-09-02", 0.10000000000000002], ["2022-09-02", 0.10626992561105209], ["2022-09-02", 0.11312217194570132], ["2022-09-02", 0.120627261761158], ["2022-09-02", 0.12745976844486887], ["2022-09-02", 0.12745976844486887], ["2022-09-02", 0.1288659793814433], ["2022-09-02", 0.136382287... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-the-ethereum-merge-have-a-sign | Will there be major technical problems on the Ethereum PoS chain after Ethereum merges? For example, if there are multiple competing PoS chains, or someone finds a security vulnerability and steals a large amount of ETH, or staker participation is <50%, or stakers get wrongly slashed. Resolves 1 day after the merge, or... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-09-16 | Will the Ethereum Merge suffer a significant technical failure? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-01 | 2022-09-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-09-24", 0.07000000000000008], ["2022-09-24", 0.1474733000844696], ["2022-09-24", 0.3076923076923077], ["2022-09-24", 0.33645192680739566], ["2022-09-24", 0.3701889433170049], ["2022-09-26", 0.044295554209062095], ["2022-09-26", 0.13534759800311713], ["2022-09-26", 0.14129699692181077], ["2022-09-26", 0.14129699... | https://manifold.markets/SauliusSimcikas/will-the-rating-for-the-food-from-t | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-01 | Will the rating for the food from the feedback survey of EAG DC 2022 conference be rated higher than the food at EAG San Francisco 2022? | manifold | 0 |
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