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class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
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2022-12-06 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-10-22", 0.695412577244936], ["2022-10-22", 0.7143386676882355], ["2022-11-12", 0.731690828784457], ["2022-11-14", 0.6703714505754333], ["2022-11-14", 0.6787040486296608], ["2022-11-14", 0.691967175981236], ["2022-11-14", 0.71], ["2022-11-15", 0.694802420530716], ["2022-11-24"... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-player-score-a-hat-trick-i | Will any player score 3 goals in one match during the world cup? | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will any player score a hat trick in the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-24 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.661594275460672], ["2022-10-21", 0.71], ["2022-10-21", 0.7661420453216716], ["2022-10-22", 0.25347574765342284], ["2022-10-22", 0.31], ["2022-10-22", 0.31], ["2022-10-22", 0.31], ["2022-10-22", 0.34019007542358953], ["2022-10-22", 0.3582271782373924], ["2022-10-22", 0.4795855726064962], ["2022-10-22",... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-c065ac86c08a | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. Thi... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-24 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.75 on October 24, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-24 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.4099704028450062], ["2022-10-21", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-21", 0.4657248010523838], ["2022-10-21", 0.5077042232712415], ["2022-10-24", 0.5600000000000002], ["2022-10-24", 0.5600000000000002], ["2022-10-24", 0.5999999999999999], ["2022-10-24", 0.6495369479923639], ["2022-10-25", 0.57962195754984... | https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-ksp-2-be-released-in-early-acc | Resolves YES if Kerbal Space Program 2's early access is playable (e.g. can buy/download/launch the game) on Feb 24, 2023, as per their recent timeline announcement. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-24 | Will KSP 2 be released in Early Access on Feb 24, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-27 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-22", 0.49677807009144664], ["2022-10-24", 0.6658834999700748], ["2022-10-30", 0.27235119109623923], ["2022-10-30", 0.29701309453994135], ["2022-10-30", 0.35245703695093705], ["2022-10-30", 0.4207411079529959], ["2022-10-30", 0.5223479192469586], ["2022-11-01", 0.2083422149... | https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-announce-an-m1-pro-or-m2 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Apple announce an M1 Pro or M2 Pro Mac mini in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.19468234937107912], ["2022-10-21", 0.23835380028576533], ["2022-10-21", 0.2508350954456562], ["2022-10-21", 0.2583788275351575], ["2022-10-21", 0.2808988764044944], ["2022-10-21", 0.3076923076923077], ["2022-10-25", 0.12284823941608544], ["2022-10-25", 0.14], ["2022-10-25", 0.14], ["2022-10-25", 0.14]... | https://manifold.markets/pv/will-the-kakhovka-hydroelectric-pow | This question resolves to YES if the water dam is destroyed and water flows to the land before end of October 2022 | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-31 | Will the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant water dam in Kherson region be destroyed before the end of October 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-18 | 2022-10-21 | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/us-weighs-security-reviews-for-musk-deals-including-twitter-buy", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_on_Foreign_Investment_in_the_United_States"] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.016663658103041455], ["2022-10-21", 0.023155959705049675], ["2022-10-21", 0.031376503924344615], ["2022-10-21", 0.038178506945307486], ["2022-10-21", 0.038178506945307486], ["2022-10-21", 0.038178506945307486], ["2022-10-21", 0.04174869840375668], ["2022-10-21", 0.05591511336522318], ["2022-10-21", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-cfius-block-modify-or-unwind-e | Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) takes action to block, modify, or unwind Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter. Resolves NO at the end of 2023 otherwise. Because CFIUS can initiate a review even after a transaction has closed, this market will stay open unt... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2024-01-01 | Will CFIUS block, modify, or unwind Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter by 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.11413392027698331], ["2022-10-21", 0.16999999999999993], ["2022-10-21", 0.2251506419923879], ["2022-10-21", 0.2599999999999999], ["2022-10-21", 0.3397732766720647], ["2022-10-21", 0.4170784572687575], ["2022-10-21", 0.4445905918148735], ["2022-10-21", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-21", 0.645704162976... | https://manifold.markets/mkalbert/will-the-sp-500-close-below-3600-on | This question resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes below 3600 on Dec 30, 2022. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the S&P 500 close below 3600 on Dec 30, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-28", 0.6457041629760851], ["2022-11-09", 0.8466845534687619], ["2022-11-14", 0.39969168192575794], ["2022-11-14", 0.4873969604434013], ["2022-11-14", 0.4873969604434013], ["2022-11-14", 0.4873969604434013], ["2022-12-14", 0.16798274697798374], ["2022-12-25", 0.059318820192... | https://manifold.markets/ems/will-drake-have-a-1-song-on-the-hot | This question resolves to YES if Drake has a new #1 hit song on the billboard Hot 100 after October 21st by the end of the year | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Drake have a #1 Song on the Hot 100 by the end of 2022 | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-02 | 2022-10-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-21", 0.76], ["2022-10-21", 0.8], ["2022-10-21", 0.9673396742897407], ["2022-10-21", 0.97], ["2022-10-21", 0.9708613332910625], ["2022-10-21", 0.9762396496039226], ["2022-10-22", 0.9615062018277223], ["2022-10-22", 0.9623191483606613], ["2022-10-30", 0.965756883786652], ["2022-10-31", 0.9741538616099923], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/mkalbert/will-maura-healey-defeat-geoff-dieh | This question resolves YES if Maura Healey is declared the winner of the election on November 8, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-11-08 10:57 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-08 10:58 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Maura Healey defeat Geoff Diehl in the 2022 election for Massachusetts Governor? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-07 | 2022-10-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-12", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-12-07", 0.66], ["2022-12-28", 0.23286310488914133], ["2023-01-19", 0.13273815803408748], ["2023-01-20", 0.12625711540259965], ["2023-02-07", 0.00932372520804915]] | https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-surge-will-ethereum-complete-a | Members of the Ethereum community are planning a Completed means that parameters exist and are publically available on the date that are intended to eventually be used in the L1 Ethereum protocol. Only a ceremony which is promulgated on the Ethereum Foundation website will be considered valid. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-24 | "The Surge": Will Ethereum complete a KZG setup ceremony before 2023-02-23? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-20 | 2022-10-22 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meloni_Cabinet", "https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislature_della_Repubblica_Italiana"] | BINARY | [["2022-10-22", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-11-16", 0.61], ["2022-11-16", 0.64], ["2022-12-06", 0.6401067549550896], ["2022-12-23", 0.6635947200048646], ["2023-02-04", 0.6825358571191217], ["2023-02-08", 0.7000701097599914], ["2023-02-10", 0.7163118455533241], ["2023-04-05", 0.7600000000000001], ["2023-04-05", 0.77], [... | https://manifold.markets/antani/will-meloni-i-cabinet-last-more-tha | Will Melon 1 still be in power on April 19 2023? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meloni_Cabinet (Italian) List of cabinets by days in power `Durata (giorni)` https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislature_della_Repubblica_Italiana | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-20 | Will Meloni I cabinet last more than 180 days? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-22 | 2022-10-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-22", 0.46345547453680264], ["2022-10-22", 0.497974976044879], ["2022-10-22", 0.49797497604488195], ["2022-10-22", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-11-05", 0.5960421923462135], ["2022-11-12", 0.62], ["2022-11-12", 0.6421816519459288], ["2022-11-18", 0.5872633166060771], ["2022-11-22", 0.5589202163100342], ["2022-1... | https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-merge-will-ethereum-stake-withd | Ethereum intends to enable stake withdrawal in the upcoming Shanghai upgrade. This market resolves YES if an upgrade enabling withdrawals has gone live before July 1st. Close date updated to 2023-07-01 11:59 pm | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-13 | "The Merge": Will Ethereum stake withdrawals be enabled by July 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-03 | 2022-10-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-22", 0.6254533123456061], ["2022-10-22", 0.6611724439184308], ["2022-10-22", 0.6700000000000002], ["2022-10-22", 0.6700000000000007], ["2022-10-22", 0.6978789719981385], ["2022-11-15", 0.5514657452778964], ["2022-11-20", 0.4958295279088786], ["2022-11-20", 0.5017383842194775], ["2022-11-20", 0.51], ["2022-11... | https://manifold.markets/PeterBerggren/will-the-2022-gavle-goat-be-burned | The Gävle Goat ( This question resolves to YES if the Gävle Goat erected by the Southern Merchants is burned down before February 1, 2023, and NO otherwise. Note that other damage to the goat, so long as it is not caused by fire, will not lead to a YES resolution. Incomplete fire damage will be judged as a YES at the d... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-04 | Will the 2022 Gävle Goat be burned down? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-22 | 2022-10-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-11", 0.30769230769230765], ["2022-11-11", 0.3378378378378378], ["2022-11-11", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-22", 0.02312138728323702], ["2022-11-22", 0.03200000000000003], ["2022-11-22", 0.047058823529411806], ["2022-11-22", 0.07547169811320754], ["2022-11-22", 0.13793103448275862]] | https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-cindy-chavez-win-the-san-jose | Verified by at least 2 news sources like the SF Chronicle, San Jose Spotlight, Mercury News. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-22 | Will Cindy Chavez win the San Jose, CA mayoral election vs Matt Mahan? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-06 | 2022-10-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-23", 0.23385795467832834], ["2022-10-23", 0.2944828354261533], ["2022-10-23", 0.32289913391969893], ["2022-10-23", 0.35742753690968876], ["2022-10-24", 0.34604198517275003], ["2022-10-24", 0.36], ["2022-10-24", 0.3681045473668069], ["2022-10-24", 0.3919967321784927], ["2022-10-24", 0.39999015464924387], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/njmkw/will-the-phillies-win-the-world-ser | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-06 | Will the Phillies win the World Series? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-10-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-23", 0.28335578676038936], ["2022-10-23", 0.3], ["2022-10-23", 0.3400302562512884], ["2022-10-23", 0.3490661955529679], ["2022-10-23", 0.37630365402193106], ["2022-10-23", 0.4115728242257195], ["2022-10-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-24", 0.16338320965410033], ["2022-10-24", 0.20999999999999994], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-hu-jintao-make-any-more-public | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will Hu Jintao make any more public appearances during 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-23 | 2022-10-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-23", 0.6354993907244197], ["2022-10-23", 0.6619638205188935], ["2022-10-23", 0.6855703999097107], ["2022-10-23", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-10-23", 0.7241283142588963], ["2022-10-23", 0.7315579026899448], ["2022-10-23", 0.7724887558003788], ["2022-10-23", 0.7816195780562801], ["2022-10-23", 0.92], ["2022-10... | https://manifold.markets/njmkw/will-the-phillies-make-it-to-the-wo | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-23 | Will the Phillies make it to the World Series? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-17 | 2022-10-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-23", 0.19223536215818096], ["2022-10-23", 0.2144184791182704], ["2022-10-23", 0.27197413146399535], ["2022-10-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-23", 0.5038417569196252], ["2022-10-23", 0.5454000857675634], ["2022-10-24", 0.18577767586569288], ["2022-10-25", 0.13928373636139768], ["2022-10-25", 0.15], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-velocity-bot-be-on-top-of-the | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Velocity Bot be on top of the all time leaderboard at the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.4900999803960008], ["2022-11-02", 0.4198132608042402], ["2022-11-02", 0.46362975340097967], ["2022-11-02", 0.46362975340097967], ["2022-11-02", 0.46362975340097967], ["2022-11-02", 0.5385851719262517], ["2022-11-02", 0.5385851719262517], ["2022-11-02", 0.5385851719262517], ["2022-11-03", 0.30363668207... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates-b0999412ad82 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 75bps in December? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.76], ["2022-10-24", 0.76], ["2022-10-24", 0.8], ["2022-10-24", 0.8000000000000002], ["2022-10-24", 0.8000000000000002], ["2022-10-24", 0.8105592645172391], ["2022-10-24", 0.8202991162729271], ["2022-10-24", 0.8294348946619575], ["2022-10-24", 0.8332863868222381], ["2022-10-25", 0.8325698346400838], ["... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-democrats-lose-at-least-one-go | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will Democrats lose at least one governor on net in the 2022 midterms? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.4435770049680625], ["2022-10-24", 0.4900999803960008], ["2022-11-02", 0.508882815378787], ["2022-11-02", 0.508882815378787], ["2022-11-02", 0.508882815378787], ["2022-11-02", 0.6168774890760302], ["2022-11-03", 0.5961525809923387], ["2022-11-03", 0.5961525809923387], ["2022-11-03", 0.5961525809923387]... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-the-fed-raise-benchmark-rates-61431461d154 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will the Fed raise benchmark rates by 50bps in December? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.28397459439333755], ["2022-10-24", 0.31], ["2022-10-24", 0.33477975471398563], ["2022-10-24", 0.3378378378378378], ["2022-10-24", 0.35000000000000003], ["2022-10-24", 0.38], ["2022-10-24", 0.38000000000000006], ["2022-10-24", 0.38000000000000006], ["2022-10-24", 0.39047862547759365], ["2022-10-24", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/WieDan/haalt-bij1-een-zetel-in-de-senaat | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-15 | Haalt Bij1 een zetel in de Senaat | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-10-24", 0.7191011235955056], ["2022-10-24", 0.7428911049059013], ["2022-10-24", 0.7637167392517992], ["2022-10-24", 0.9332671448657995], ["2022-10-24", 0.9332671448657995], ["2022-10-24", 0.9559847695414998], ["2022-10-24", 0.9639470951231465], ["2022-10-24", 0.97], ["2022-10... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-10-unique-tra | Resolves to YES if there are at least 10 unique traders on this market by the end of the year. Otherwise resolves to NO. Links to all my markets on how many unique traders they'll get: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-01 | Will this market have 10 unique traders by the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-25 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.10686465268374626], ["2022-10-24", 0.11369238140279407], ["2022-10-24", 0.12117250905744005], ["2022-10-24", 0.12937893098310665], ["2022-10-24", 0.13840290893731594], ["2022-10-24", 0.14834928241644796], ["2022-10-24", 0.15933864690057467], ["2022-10-24", 0.1715098446103791], ["2022-10-24", 0.1850227... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/are-v-and-acc-run-by-the-same-perso | Resolves YES if these markets have at least one chosen answer in common. | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-25 | Are @v and @acc run by the same person? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-30 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-25", 0.354480818703127], ["2022-10-25", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-26", 0.27018949597011915], ["2022-10-26", 0.2953198741010476], ["2022-10-26", 0.7205170848988345], ["2022-10-26", 0.8006010001475684], ["2022-10-27", 0.3489828258122746], ["2022-10-27", 0.3652072656490793], ["2022-10-27", 0.38237450537052... | https://manifold.markets/kazoo/will-jake-paul-beat-anderson-silva | Jake Paul vs. Anderson Silva is an upcoming professional boxing contest between Jake Paul and Anderson Silva. The bout is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2022, at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. Resolves yes if Jake paul defeats Anderson Silva. Resolves no if Anderson Silva is the winner of the bo... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-30 | Will Jake Paul beat Anderson Silva? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-25 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.20863393942747435], ["2022-10-24", 0.4803996925441968], ["2022-10-25", 0.052945286834192085], ["2022-10-25", 0.0833053869225934], ["2022-10-25", 0.10364131609230096], ["2022-10-25", 0.12053505489909426], ["2022-10-25", 0.16359540204556106], ["2022-10-25", 0.26071164828627186], ["2022-10-25", 0.2765319... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-9e075be39f51 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. Thi... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-25 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.50 on October 25, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-09 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.5583515842540938], ["2022-10-24", 0.5916305722448733], ["2022-10-24", 0.67767929089444], ["2022-10-24", 0.6869188017289088], ["2022-10-24", 0.7303533365309818], ["2022-10-24", 0.75], ["2022-10-24", 0.7876568531493207], ["2022-11-07", 0.7024011931184221], ["2022-11-07", 0.7168392040027369], ["2022-11-1... | https://manifold.markets/WieDan/is-de-opkomst-bij-de-provinciale-st | Deze vraag krijgt een ja als de opkomst bij de PS 56,17% of hoger is. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-15 | Is de opkomst bij de Provinciale Statenverkiezingen hoger dan in 2019? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-03 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-24", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-24", 0.6282527881040894], ["2022-10-24", 0.65], ["2022-10-24", 0.6621621621621623], ["2022-10-24", 0.6790773222581103], ["2022-10-24", 0.679783583408304], ["2022-10-24", 0.6922291958411002], ["2022-10-24", 0.7051309430592811], ["2022-10-... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-30-unique-tra | Resolves to YES if there are at least 30 unique traders on this market by the end of the year. Otherwise resolves to NO. Links to all my markets on how many unique traders they'll get: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-03 | Will this market have 30 unique traders by the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-29 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.10000000000000002], ["2022-10-24", 0.13196669807817787], ["2022-10-24", 0.18], ["2022-10-24", 0.2], ["2022-10-24", 0.20409381017010478], ["2022-10-24", 0.22447445094958385], ["2022-10-24", 0.24989823990526477], ["2022-10-24", 0.25596970451155826], ["2022-10-24", 0.26], ["2022-10-24", 0.27], ["2022-10-... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-parag-agarwal-be-the-ceo-of-tw | Resolves YES if Parag keeps his job post acquisition until at least the first of January, 2023. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-01 | Will Parag Agarwal be the CEO of Twitter on January 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-24", 0.7175911831136669], ["2022-10-24", 0.7514454599204168], ["2022-10-24", 0.8267667602902644], ["2022-10-24", 0.8462176579773787], ["2022-10-24", 0.86], ["2022-10-24", 0.87], ["2022-10-24", 0.87], ["2022-10-24", 0.8765129189472384], ["2022-10-24", 0.8955527138397482], [... | https://manifold.markets/TomekKolotom/will-tiktok-be-available-on-us-app | Multiple governmental agencies and private business have imposed or attempted impose bans on the social media service TikTok. Countries like India and the United States have expressed concerns about the app's ownership by the Chinese company, ByteDance, attempting to ban it from app stores. A recent series of social m... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will TikTok be available on US App Store on December 1, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-03 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.5901639344262296], ["2022-10-24", 0.8287671232876711], ["2022-10-24", 0.8793532530305281], ["2022-10-24", 0.8793532530305281], ["2022-10-24", 0.8793532530305281], ["2022-10-24", 0.9283267477450549], ["2022-10-24", 0.9418554050296394], ["2022-10-24", 0.9418554050296394], ["2022-10-24", 0.94185540502963... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-20-unique-tra | Resolves to YES if there are at least 20 unique traders on this market by the end of the year. Otherwise resolves to NO. Links to all my markets on how many unique traders they'll get: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-03 | Will this market have 20 unique traders by the end of the year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-10-31 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.19025756674767183], ["2022-10-24", 0.44841387488882306], ["2022-10-24", 0.5475113122171946], ["2022-10-26", 0.17117584434826977], ["2022-10-31", 0.03671856102318805]] | https://manifold.markets/WieDan/komt-de-inflatie-in-oktober-boven-d | De vraag wordt met ja beantwoord als de Europees geharmoniseerde inflatie (HICP) Nederland boven de 17.1% uit komt. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-31 | Komt de inflatie in oktober boven de inflatie van september uit? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.41753897814297997], ["2022-10-24", 0.43478239653625766], ["2022-10-24", 0.4382506006528289], ["2022-10-24", 0.45476452277628754], ["2022-10-24", 0.4781727625171039], ["2022-10-24", 0.4781727625171039], ["2022-10-24", 0.4781727625171039], ["2022-10-24", 0.4783435681576777], ["2022-10-24", 0.48234081943... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-any-national-team-captain-wear | As this question stirred some doubts - I am clarifying: this market asks about an armband with an | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will any national team captain wear a rainbow LGBT armband during the game at Qatar World Cup 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-10-30 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-10-24", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-10-24", 0.45943417636580525], ["2022-10-27", 0.4986398451239534], ["2022-10-27", 0.5031438965728082], ["2022-10-27", 0.5938179974159824], ["2022-10-28", 0.50935940752778], ["2022-10-29", 0.0577805335645095], ["2022-10-29", 0.062637236464490... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-magnus-carlsen-win-the-2022-wo | The FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship is an over-the-board chess tournament that is scheduled to take place in the Berjaya Reykjavik Natura Hotel in Iceland, from 25-30 October, 2022. The prize fund for the tournament is $400,000 USD. Eight players will compete for the $150,000 USD first prize and the title ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-10-30 | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2022 World Fischer Random Chess Championship? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.3380779563890659], ["2022-10-24", 0.348235173940917], ["2022-10-24", 0.3952842116241004], ["2022-10-24", 0.39944107929894923], ["2022-10-24", 0.41999999999999993], ["2022-10-24", 0.41999999999999993], ["2022-10-24", 0.4245148074010205], ["2022-10-24", 0.4513486668063623], ["2022-10-24", 0.452488687782... | https://manifold.markets/EHenk/gaan-de-groningse-gasvelden-deze-wi | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-16 | Gaan de Groningse gasvelden deze winter open? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-15 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.31585560591649314], ["2022-10-24", 0.3397157217334226], ["2022-10-24", 0.3634571122625917], ["2022-10-24", 0.3902439024390245], ["2022-10-24", 0.45532708501527924], ["2022-10-24", 0.48000000000000004], ["2022-10-24", 0.48000000000000004], ["2022-10-24", 0.48000000000000004], ["2022-10-24", 0.480000000... | https://manifold.markets/WieDan/gaat-de-pvv-de-provinciale-staten-w | Deze vraag wordt met ja beantwoord als de PVV de grootste partij wordt in de 1e kamer. Als het aantal zetels gelijk is met een andere partij wordt gekeken naar het percentage van de landelijke stemmen. Publicatie van de kiesraad is leidend. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-15 | Gaat de PVV de Provinciale Staten winnen? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-15 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.6524036289061143], ["2022-10-24", 0.6815677827113167], ["2022-10-26", 0.7200665780663117], ["2022-10-27", 0.6803959422212463], ["2022-11-03", 0.6411765746737252], ["2022-11-05", 0.6620500567771311], ["2022-11-24", 0.6813082993032643], ["2022-12-03", 0.6972235018380304], ["2022-12-03", 0.71204195674624... | https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-any-iteration-of-oprnais-gpt-m | Oct 24, 3:53am: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-15 | Will any iteration of OpenAI’s GPT models be multimodal by 2030? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-10-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-10-24", 0.0628173865057166], ["2022-10-24", 0.11708742335196196], ["2022-10-24", 0.18852758949802623], ["2022-10-24", 0.20236674101854876], ["2022-10-24", 0.22410558230608188], ["2022-10-24", 0.24975219837782223], ["2022-10-24", 0.477587268051789], ["2022-10-26", 0.06486972440741076], ["2022-10-30", 0.063759937... | https://manifold.markets/dreev/hardesty | The challenger is Rene Gonzalez. Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Jo Ann Hardesty be reelected to Portland city council? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-05", 0.03017511174586402], ["2022-11-05", 0.25706940874035994], ["2022-11-06", 0.08376277368285713], ["2022-11-06", 0.09115011952535128], ["2022-11-06", 0.09980470208978234], ["2022-11-07", 0.0451201244965286], ["2022-11-07", 0.05079905016379632], ["2022-11-07", 0.053075469869982767], ["2022-11-08", 0.009881... | https://manifold.markets/MarketManagerBot/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-9e20bcf16a85 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in South Dakota | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-05", 0.03326135793733433], ["2022-11-05", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-11-08", 0.12320140618030588], ["2022-11-09", 0.01798367716920222], ["2022-11-09", 0.029299416082273076], ["2022-11-09", 0.06781659475499409]] | https://manifold.markets/MarketManagerBot/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-s-8042bb8156aa | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in the Oklahoma Special Election | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-21 | 2022-11-06 | ["https://www.gamesradar.com/black-friday-oculus-quest-2-deals/"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.4699999999999999], ["2022-11-06", 0.5510641973163798], ["2022-11-21", 0.9977605807730305]] | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-there-be-a-2022-black-friday-d | The majority of deals regarding the Oculus Quest 2 in 2021 provided an effective $50 in value, with one deal from Amazon purportedly providing $100 in savings ($50 gift card and $50 carrying case). https://www.gamesradar.com/black-friday-oculus-quest-2-deals/ | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-21 | Will there be a 2022 Black Friday deal involving Oculus Quest 2 that will involve $98 or more of savings from the current MSRP? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-28 | 2022-11-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.34865619627228506], ["2022-11-06", 0.4699999999999999], ["2022-11-07", 0.3883049861269104], ["2022-11-17", 0.4105419607966727], ["2022-12-03", 0.43072546006778883], ["2022-12-10", 0.4491801420502792], ["2022-12-10", 0.46609953999059506], ["2022-12-27", 0.58], ["2022-12-27", 0.6026113655953816], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-a-reform-of-the-electoral-coun-c7977447618c | It seems unlikely before the midterms but there is a lame duck session after the election where this may pass. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will a reform of the Electoral Count Act pass during the 117th Congress? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-28 | 2022-11-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.060000000000000005], ["2022-11-06", 0.06000000000000001], ["2022-11-06", 0.06000000000000001], ["2022-11-06", 0.069638812158567], ["2022-11-06", 0.13447074124233074], ["2022-11-06", 0.15], ["2022-11-06", 0.19999999999999996], ["2022-11-06", 0.20959928182239043], ["2022-11-06", 0.21999999999999997], ["... | https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-germany-assume-neutrality-over | Germany is participating in Western sanctions of Russia, is allowing Western arms into Ukraine through Germany, and has directly provided some arms to Ukraine. Will that position of moderated support for the Western proxy war shift significantly towards neutrality over the winter? If there is significant disagreement a... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will Germany assume neutrality over Ukraine by March 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.0037567254323766755], ["2022-11-06", 0.0037567254323766755], ["2022-11-06", 0.0037567254323766755], ["2022-11-06", 0.0039542361813656845], ["2022-11-06", 0.003974896833003194], ["2022-11-06", 0.0040808354001787535], ["2022-11-06", 0.004927103751750856], ["2022-11-06", 0.005446197334025144], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-t1-win-game-4-of-league-of-leg | YES = T1, NO = DRX. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-06 | Will T1 win Game 4 of League of Legends Worlds Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.008912086340846758], ["2022-11-06", 0.016283143195773946], ["2022-11-06", 0.016875225571403592], ["2022-11-06", 0.017500611149910826], ["2022-11-06", 0.018161853620767922], ["2022-11-06", 0.018861756088285372], ["2022-11-06", 0.019603400805764188], ["2022-11-06", 0.020390183111545432], ["2022-11-06", ... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-drx-win-zero-games-in-league-o | Nov 5, 9:34pm: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-06 | Will T1 sweep League of Legends Worlds Finals? (Will DRX lose every game?) | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.27623613260415947], ["2022-11-06", 0.27623613260415947], ["2022-11-06", 0.27623613260415947], ["2022-11-06", 0.2846368255875103], ["2022-11-06", 0.30765745118002485], ["2022-11-06", 0.3417483694975473], ["2022-11-06", 0.34194230254028635], ["2022-11-06", 0.34194230254028635], ["2022-11-06", 0.34194230... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-t1-win-game-3-of-league-of-leg | YES = T1, NO = DRX. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-06 | Will T1 win Game 3 of League of Legends Worlds Finals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-06", 0.030784274073283033], ["2022-11-06", 0.031536281825242936], ["2022-11-06", 0.03402681672688361], ["2022-11-06", 0.04], ["2022-11-06", 0.07575548451951185], ["2022-11-06", 0.16216877550211156], ["2022-11-06", 0.17], ["2022-11-06", 0.2193394260030857], ["2022-11-06", 0.2515202410407649], ["2022-11-06", 0... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-t1-win-game-2-of-league-of-leg | YES = T1, NO = DRX. Close date updated to 2022-11-05 10:37 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-06 | Will T1 win Game 2 of League of Legends Worlds Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-08 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.30520470221571994], ["2022-11-07", 0.37], ["2022-11-07", 0.5], ["2022-11-07", 0.7100000000000001], ["2022-11-07", 0.7100000000000001], ["2022-11-07", 0.7100000000000001], ["2022-11-07", 0.7381389254356083], ["2022-11-07", 0.7600997984838307], ["2022-11-08", 0.14361045394830121], ["2022-11-08", 0.14517... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-aca1e2156ca4 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. Thi... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-08 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.00 on November 8, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.8660174743081482], ["2022-11-07", 0.8820106051101375], ["2022-11-07", 0.8999999999999999], ["2022-12-09", 0.9334776964807605], ["2022-12-29", 0.007929562413056831], ["2022-12-29", 0.007962093411783833], ["2022-12-29", 0.02], ["2022-12-29", 0.02], ["2022-12-29", 0.02], ["2022-12-29", 0.0201063729669227... | https://manifold.markets/Brunching/will-jako-publish-a-mainchannel-vid | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-29 | Will Jako publish a main-channel video before the 31st of December 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-19 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.5479904797252967], ["2022-11-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-07", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-08", 0.4823750833619941], ["2022-11-11", 0.4404345242438071], ["2022-11-11", 0.44999999999999984], ["2022-11-14", 0.4168936838591388], ["2022-11-15", 0.4076954015229897], ["2022-11-16", 0.3781185316067... | https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/will-the-brazilian-supreme-court-ou | Context: [pt-BR] O Supremo Tribunal Federal vai proibir emendas sem identificação do autor no Orçamento Federal ("Orçamento Secreto") até o final de 2022? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-19 | Will the Brazilian Supreme Court outlaw unidentified amendments to the Federal Budget ("Secret Budget") by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.09054979811600784], ["2022-11-07", 0.096479910528408], ["2022-11-07", 0.09713431195675945], ["2022-11-07", 0.12396811451512828], ["2022-11-07", 0.14102432014153157], ["2022-11-07", 0.14162266979030202], ["2022-11-07", 0.17000000000000004], ["2022-11-07", 0.18720625595752072], ["2022-11-07", 0.19042229... | https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-ftx-suspend-withdrawals-for-mo | Resolves to YES if FTX suspends user withdrawals for more than 7 days during 2022. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will FTX suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-10 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.12670709744449127], ["2022-11-07", 0.14999999999999997], ["2022-11-07", 0.17660871019580335], ["2022-11-07", 0.18999999999999992], ["2022-11-07", 0.20931490927935573], ["2022-11-07", 0.21799168727116544], ["2022-11-07", 0.2465149997875113], ["2022-11-07", 0.27393665292459335], ["2022-11-07", 0.2819099... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-subtropical-storm-nicole-make | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-10 | Will Subtropical Storm Nicole make landfall in Florida as a Hurricane? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-11 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.043453329972463074], ["2022-11-07", 0.0764126943195741], ["2022-11-07", 0.08896797153024918], ["2022-11-07", 0.1000000000000001], ["2022-11-09", 0.011998749847528519], ["2022-11-09", 0.013741803212455342], ["2022-11-09", 0.014646543869669312], ["2022-11-11", 0.021393904114475625]] | https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-meta-layoff-25-of-employees-in | Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=25% of employees fired, which should be ~21000 (unless the number of employees on Google turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today (no previous firings are counted). | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Meta layoff >= 25% of employees in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.20128211145497027], ["2022-11-07", 0.20128211145497027], ["2022-11-07", 0.20128211145497027], ["2022-11-07", 0.24], ["2022-11-07", 0.24], ["2022-11-07", 0.24], ["2022-11-07", 0.24539644352981468], ["2022-11-07", 0.2544453129168436], ["2022-11-07", 0.31], ["2022-11-07", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-11-07... | https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/wil-meta-fire-15-of-employees-in-20 | Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=15% of employees fired, which should be ~12500 (unless the number of employees on Google turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today (no previous firings are counted) | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Meta layoff >= 15% of employees in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-11-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-07", 0.5901639344262295], ["2022-11-07", 0.911032028469751], ["2022-11-07", 0.9361892433611235], ["2022-11-07", 0.9574875654637502], ["2022-11-07", 0.9598967149557354], ["2022-11-09", 0.9477310235401584], ["2022-11-09", 0.989325811630826... | https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-meta-announce-layoffs-in-2022 | Resolves to YES if Meta announces layoffs in 2022, NO otherwise. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will Meta announce layoffs in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-14 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-07", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-07", 0.8981857238983678], ["2022-11-08", 0.8607932067464333], ["2022-11-08", 0.8671456977750004], ["2022-11-09", 0.868493434137248], ["2022-11-09", 0.9921884957614833], ["2022-11-09", 0.9922196534875858], ["2022-11-09", 0.992261131136268... | https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-meta-layoff-5-of-employees-in | Resolution criteria: trustworthy news sources claiming >=5% of employees fired, which should be ~4200 (unless the number of employees on Google turns out to be wrong). Starting date is today (no previous firings are counted). | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will Meta layoff >= 5% of employees in 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-07", 0.4578586551287275], ["2022-11-07", 0.4699999999999999], ["2022-11-07", 0.5558812740027035], ["2022-11-07", 0.5558812740027035], ["2022-11-07", 0.5558812740027035], ["2022-11-07", 0.5558812740027035], ["2022-11-07", 0.5558812740027035], ["2022-11-07", 0.5558812740027035], ["2022-11-07", 0.55588127400270... | https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-at-least-one-congressional-can | This market resolves positive if a major-party candidate for US Congress in the 2022 midterm elections contests the results of the election they were in, including: If a candidate says they believe the election was fraudulent, but concedes on time and doesn't make any attempt to fight it, that will not count as contest... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will at least one Congressional candidate contest election results in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.5], ["2022-11-09", 0.014773938600748576], ["2022-11-09", 0.015009915494143293], ["2022-11-09", 0.0369495085029585], ["2022-11-09", 0.04200923830867298], ["2022-11-09", 0.0464437286495003], ["2022-11-09", 0.2983966879289562], ["2022-11-09", 0.37826345555420865], ["2022-11-09", 0.3890333806230923], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/PatCrawley/will-associated-press-call-a-winner | Close date updated to 2022-11-09 12:21 am Close date updated to 2022-11-09 12:21 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Associated Press call a winner of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election before 11:59pm EST? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-11 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.4327154464382981], ["2022-11-09", 0.24], ["2022-11-09", 0.25015510847918904], ["2022-11-09", 0.2574360319665561], ["2022-11-09", 0.26797238573214205], ["2022-11-09", 0.2684177929677254], ["2022-11-09", 0.273259844985206], ["2022-11-09", 0.273259844985206], ["2022-11-09", 0.273259844985206], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-alameda-research-declare-bankr | Resolution: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-11 | Will Alameda Research declare bankruptcy before the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-29 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.4358103952989343], ["2022-11-08", 0.46999999999999986], ["2022-11-08", 0.53], ["2022-11-08", 0.53], ["2022-11-08", 0.6355012739868394], ["2022-11-08", 0.6846521244358832], ["2022-11-08", 0.7743472902178327], ["2022-11-08", 0.78], ["2022-11-08", 0.8047073422089334], ["2022-11-08", 0.82], ["2022-11-08",... | https://manifold.markets/Lorenzo/will-sbf-be-a-billionaire-according | Resolves according to | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-29 | Will SBF be a billionaire according to Forbes on Apr 1st 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.4240920302397374], ["2022-11-08", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-08", 0.7840226844070889], ["2022-11-08", 0.82], ["2022-11-08", 0.9268147294827506], ["2022-11-09", 0.08131312310890666], ["2022-11-09", 0.08665770511186965], ["2022-11-09", 0.09400989806263838], ["2022-11-09", 0.11297898902660636], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-2e7cc6e416a9 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. Thi... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.00 on November 9, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-11-08", 0.7429305912596401], ["2022-11-08", 0.8778979838708104], ["2022-11-08", 0.8964165199753656], ["2022-11-08", 0.920531226144873], ["2022-11-08", 0.9241076323183206], ["2022-11-09", 0.9204282446273458], ["2022-11-09", 0.9268026721732593], ["2022-11-09", 0.932309029453896... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-forbes-estimate-sbfs-wealth-ab | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Forbes estimate SBF's wealth above $10mn? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.7562049186312005], ["2022-11-08", 0.7887416611781584], ["2022-11-08", 0.8128997844615209], ["2022-11-08", 0.8331847587459944], ["2022-11-08", 0.8349455852622717], ["2022-11-08", 0.8711340206185568], ["2022-11-08", 0.8716666793921827], ["2022-11-09", 0.8308281229846639], ["2022-11-09", 0.83318475874599... | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-there-be-an-owngoal-in-this-ye | Close date updated to 2022-12-18 11:59 am | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will there be an own-goal in this year's World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-20 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.2660135747214266], ["2022-11-08", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-08", 0.4599999999999999], ["2022-11-08", 0.46555819477434685], ["2022-11-09", 0.24822479832482058], ["2022-11-09", 0.24939999324251158], ["2022-11-09", 0.27], ["2022-11-09", 0.27], ["2022-11-09", 0.27], ["2022-11-09", 0.31], ["2022-11-09... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ftx-token-ftt-dip-below-100-by | prices via Coingecko, 30-min candlestick, low prices | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-20 | Will FTX Token (FTT) dip below $1.00 by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-28 | 2022-11-08 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_Arena"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-12", 0.3900000000000001], ["2022-11-12", 0.4000000000000001], ["2022-11-12", 0.4000000000000002], ["2022-11-12", 0.40482172935220667], ["2022-11-12", 0.4285794064336387], ["2022-11-12", 0.44998103490617575], ["2022-11-12", 0.51], ["2022-11-12", 0.51], ["2022-11-12", 0.51], ["2022-11-12", 0.51952838248298], [... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ftx-arena-change-its-name-by-t | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_Arena Management of the arena has released a statement about search for a new partner: related markets: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will FTX Arena change its name by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-11-08", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-09", 0.42370848319124615], ["2022-11-09", 0.5014879586039774], ["2022-11-09", 0.6282598456772739], ["2022-11-09", 0.678023449721678], ["2022-11-09", 0.8322822421236751], ["2022-11-11", 0.8663819443482663], ["2022-11-14", 0.691446642371410... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-sol-go-bellow-10 | Before 2023. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm Nov 10, 4:21pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-29 | Will SOL go bellow $10 before 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.10192552032025791], ["2022-11-08", 0.19999999999999996], ["2022-11-08", 0.23584905660377356], ["2022-11-08", 0.28089887640449446], ["2022-11-08", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-11-08", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-11", 0.2536674886014498], ["2022-11-14", 0.32823356113091623], ["2022-11-27", 0.1582186684... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-sol-go-bellow-5 | Before 2023. Nov 10, 4:20pm: Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will SOL go bellow $5 before 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-08 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.8999999999999999], ["2022-11-08", 0.9615384615384616], ["2022-11-08", 0.9888272551613573]] | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ftx-token-ftt-dip-below-10-by | prices via Coingecko, 30-min candlestick, low prices | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-08 | Will FTX Token (FTT) dip below $10 by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-11 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.49934159174627096], ["2022-11-08", 0.52], ["2022-11-08", 0.53], ["2022-11-08", 0.53], ["2022-11-08", 0.53], ["2022-11-08", 0.53], ["2022-11-08", 0.55], ["2022-11-08", 0.59], ["2022-11-08", 0.59], ["2022-11-08", 0.59], ["2022-11-08", 0.67], ["2022-11-08", 0.723496433341469], ["2022-11-08", 0.7429305912... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-ftxcom-is-bought-by-binance-will-00444dfa66cc | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | If FTX.com is bought by Binance, will the deal imply FTX.com is worth more than $.5Bn? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-11-08 | ["https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-georgias-senate-race-goes-to-a-runoff-again/"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.2808988764044944], ["2022-11-08", 0.3385624749225123], ["2022-11-08", 0.3554318703692133], ["2022-11-08", 0.38], ["2022-11-08", 0.3999999999999999], ["2022-11-08", 0.3999999999999999], ["2022-11-08", 0.4], ["2022-11-08", 0.4], ["2022-11-08", 0.4], ["2022-11-08", 0.4], ["2022-11-08", 0.4], ["2022-11-08... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-georgia-senate-race-go-to | Resolves YES if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the Nov 8 election, making it go to a runoff. Otherwise NO. Background https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-georgias-senate-race-goes-to-a-runoff-again/ | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will the Georgia Senate race go to a runoff? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-11-08", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-09", 0.2962664515304791], ["2022-11-14", 0.5782087865788967], ["2022-11-16", 0.5159497805726114], ["2022-11-16", 0.567310756811318], ["2022-11-17", 0.39573333339091343], ["2022-11-17", 0.39999999999999986], ["2022-11-17", 0.43397537041475... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-twitter-report-a-system-incide | This market will resolve to "YES" if by Dec 31 2022, Twitter will report a major incident (Degraded Performance, Partial Outage or Major Outage) of one of its systems. Nov 18, 1:26pm: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.21691973969631242], ["2022-11-08", 0.34535035543304815], ["2022-11-09", 0.24940550011237586], ["2022-12-01", 0.22176497136304443], ["2022-12-14", 0.16922998599236352], ["2022-12-15", 0.008995480803394818], ["2022-12-15", 0.04000000000000003], ["2022-12-15", 0.05823060169686155], ["2022-12-21", 0.04925... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-lebanons-parliament-elect-a-ne | The Chamber of Deputies has yet to form a new government or elect a new President of the Republic since delayed elections were held in May 2022, and President Michel Aoun left office at the expiration of his term in October 2022 ( The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the coun... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Lebanon's parliament elect a new President by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-08 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-elections-protests-intl-latam"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.3], ["2022-11-08", 0.3223511158856873], ["2022-11-08", 0.32235111588568743], ["2022-11-08", 0.3443051921222972], ["2022-11-08", 0.38], ["2022-11-10", 0.2999999999999997], ["2022-11-14", 0.4499999999999999], ["2022-11-14", 0.5054678998797835], ["2022-11-17", 0.48404731573255105], ["2022-11-23", 0.29041... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-bolsonaro-concede-the-election | Resolves YES if by end of day Dec 31 (Brazil local time), Bolsonaro officially concedes the election, as reported by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO. (If Inauguration Day changes for any reason, that will not affect the market - the deadline is Dec 31 regardless.) Background: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/am... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Bolsonaro concede the election before Inauguration Day (Jan 1)? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-23 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.059304178889472765], ["2022-11-08", 0.06898008438384427], ["2022-11-08", 0.0904997215981299], ["2022-11-08", 0.09122043543639306], ["2022-11-08", 0.10000000000000005], ["2022-11-08", 0.13873010890760668], ["2022-11-08", 0.14868960800404024], ["2022-11-08", 0.18484288354898343], ["2022-11-08", 0.378312... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ftx-become-insolvent-by-the-en | This market will resolve to "Yes" if FTX withdrawals for USDC, BTC, ETH and/or SOL are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that FTX is insolvent by Dec 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.” O... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-23 | Will FTX become insolvent by the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-11-09", 8.103178765702123e-05], ["2022-11-09", 0.050624976646005036], ["2022-11-09", 0.10000000000000002]] | https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-anthony-amore-win-the-massachu | Resolves to "YES" if Anthony Amore is elected Massachusetts State Auditor. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | Will Anthony Amore win the Massachusetts Auditor Election? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-11-08 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-08", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-08", 0.65], ["2022-11-08", 0.65], ["2022-11-08", 0.65], ["2022-11-08", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-11-10", 0.7], ["2022-11-10", 0.7094924199121454], ["2022-11-13", 0.7356240647541419], ["2022-11-13", 0.7594685256608517], ["2022-11-21", 0.7615558676525038], ["2022-11-21", 0... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-mbs-visit-pakistan-by-the-end | The Prince is tentatively scheduled to visit Pakistan in late-November, but the uncertain political climate in Pakistan has made things a bit more complicated. Resolves YES if MBS visits by the end of 2022. NO if not. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will MBS visit Pakistan by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.1370700983279713], ["2022-11-09", 0.14025441144474238], ["2022-11-09", 0.14025441144474238], ["2022-11-09", 0.14025441144474238], ["2022-11-09", 0.15207252475448146], ["2022-11-09", 0.15207252475448146], ["2022-11-09", 0.15207252475448146], ["2022-11-09", 0.16556376918661772], ["2022-11-09", 0.1918309... | https://manifold.markets/Ophelia/is-it-true-that-sbf-has-declared-or | Someone on Twitter claims this: Resolves TRUE if I learn that Sam Bankman-Fried has filed bankruptcy (or declared bankruptcy, idk if there's a difference) before this tweet was published. Resolves FALSE if I learn that he hadn't. If I find out he filed for bankruptcy today but don't know the exact time, I'll resolve T... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Is it true that SBF has declared or filed for bankruptcy? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-10 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.1107692307692308], ["2022-11-09", 0.17635332006334797], ["2022-11-09", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-09", 0.8328612581336019], ["2022-11-10", 0.04714791810564949], ["2022-11-10", 0.059999999999999935], ["2022-11-10", 0.09999999999999999], ["2022-11-10", 0.09999999999999999], ["2022-11-10", 0.11076180... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-d3d060226ce5 | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question. Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets. Thi... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-10 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $3.65 on November 10, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-11-09 | ["https://manifold.markets/post/comparing-election-forecast-accurac"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-09", 0.7414591071517395], ["2022-11-09", 0.7796867531663666], ["2022-11-09", 0.8011915096240337], ["2022-11-09", 0.8063303238165322], ["2022-11-09", 0.82], ["2022-11-09", 0.8205832126553761], ["2022-11-09", 0.8287671232876712], ["2022-11-09", 0.831410429390212], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-metaculus-beat-538-on-midterms | I will score several prediction platforms on a set of 10 questions on the outcome of the 2022 US midterm elections. For each prediction platform, I will take the predicted probabilities on Monday evening, and compute the average log score (a measure of the prediction's accuracy) on these questions. This question will r... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-15 | Will Metaculus beat 538 on midterms predictions? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-20 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.4197754163477752], ["2022-11-09", 0.46691071346714524], ["2022-11-09", 0.5526335544616084], ["2022-11-09", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-09", 0.6613668702810708], ["2022-11-10", 0.4268385372770424], ["2022-11-10", 0.44999999999999996], ["2022-11-10", 0.45], ["2022-11-10", 0.45], ["2022-11-10", 0.45],... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-qatar-score-any-goals-in-the-o | Resolves yes if Qatar scores a goal or multiple goals (excluding own goals) in the opening match against Equador. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-20 | Will Qatar score any goals in the opening match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.07816398468163605], ["2022-11-09", 0.12044733063878493], ["2022-11-09", 0.12865139204154472], ["2022-11-09", 0.1336733070994204], ["2022-11-09", 0.13792530970228434], ["2022-11-09", 0.28089887640449446], ["2022-11-09", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-10", 0.09999999999999998], ["2022-11-10", 0.10958616... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-twitter-accept-bitcoin-btc-as | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment before the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.03643594849130541], ["2022-11-09", 0.03754763224513279], ["2022-11-09", 0.07645890178797987], ["2022-11-09", 0.08233032964482905], ["2022-11-09", 0.08896797153024918], ["2022-11-09", 0.1000000000000001], ["2022-11-10", 0.02915574751874273], ["2022-11-10", 0.02982841265481946], ["2022-11-10", 0.0305301... | https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-the-next-share-purchase-of-ftx | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | Will the next share purchase of FTX.com imply its value is over $6 Bn? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.16131664022920877], ["2022-11-09", 0.17458188660670101], ["2022-11-09", 0.18772967619667613], ["2022-11-09", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-11-09", 0.20950873768004605], ["2022-11-09", 0.2662348835104591], ["2022-11-09", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-11-09", 0.3965401886401687], ["2022-11-09", 0.6135429362... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-lauren-boebert-retain-her-hous | Right now the race is too close to call. Get in on some post-election day prediction! Close date updated to 2022-11-21 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-28 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-14 11:59 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | Will Lauren Boebert retain her House seat (CO 3) in the 2022 midterms? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.7767200208832541], ["2022-11-15", 0.7780425809977531], ["2022-11-15", 0.7827210733654174], ["2022-11-15", 0.7828459394509132], ["2022-11-15", 0.7860621337169694], ["2022-11-15", 0.7917825056137545], ["2022-11-15", 0.7937146934758443], ["2022-11-15", 0.7945677824840517], ["2022-11-15", 0.79478607105683... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-donald-trump-announce-he-is-ru | Speculation that Donald Trump will announce he is running for President of the United States received a heavy boost when he stated in a rally on November 7, 2022: "I'm going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald John T... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.5201693859920417], ["2022-11-09", 0.529616982005627], ["2022-11-09", 0.6105136250031576], ["2022-11-09", 0.6410562414735872], ["2022-11-09", 0.6745570550926341], ["2022-11-10", 0.6711748424328124], ["2022-11-10", 0.68], ["2022-11-10", 0.6981243669078597], ["2022-11-10", 0.7314298633929947], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-h-4869c6c8d1df | This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of R+1.5 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets. Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am Close date updated to 2022-11-12 6:59 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in CO-8 (Susan Wild vs Lisa Scheller) | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.5099999999999999], ["2022-11-09", 0.5972476307493825], ["2022-11-09", 0.6489345188563866], ["2022-11-09", 0.9721657542756498], ["2022-11-09", 0.9766472990587343]] | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-h-a1043df8c080 | This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of D+3.1 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets. Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in MN-2 (Jared Golden vs Bruce Poliquin) | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-09 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.5201693859920417], ["2022-11-09", 0.6105851684607861], ["2022-11-09", 0.9885172301861482]] | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-h-0c4985e12763 | This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of R+0.4 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets. Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-09 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in PA-7 (Yadira Caraveo vs Barbara Kirkmeyer) | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.6945792877283012], ["2022-11-09", 0.8123284693519806], ["2022-11-10", 0.8309161731011012], ["2022-11-10", 0.8466925099310562], ["2022-11-10", 0.8602048768953336], ["2022-11-10", 0.8718741364074671], ["2022-11-10", 0.8943260123142956], ["2022-11-12", 0.9833995240743666]] | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-h-5fa978ad8d97 | This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of D+2.4 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets. Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am Close date updated to 2022-11-12 6:59 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in NV-1 (Dina Titus vs Mark Robertson) | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-23 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.3738510248541699], ["2022-11-09", 0.42605134648141446], ["2022-11-09", 0.4459849828917335], ["2022-11-11", 0.43582307151461147], ["2022-11-11", 0.5239818556921894], ["2022-11-12", 0.5658942528059271], ["2022-11-12", 0.5865398895788425], ["2022-11-12", 0.5972057001665342], ["2022-11-12", 0.742296536514... | https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-ftx-us-halt-withdrawals-for-7d | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will FTX US halt withdrawals for >=7days before the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.7027111243146065], ["2022-11-10", 0.7504665329909511], ["2022-11-10", 0.7874704511604816], ["2022-11-10", 0.8166450732658334], ["2022-11-10", 0.8636715207503662], ["2022-11-11", 0.9046717767815466], ["2022-11-12", 0.8699706253204801], ["2022-11-12", 0.9225793277100314], ["2022-11-12", 0.97622227008943... | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/a-democrat-wins-the-2022-race-for-h-703df07f254b | This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of D+2.3 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets. Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am Close date updated to 2022-11-12 6:59 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in WA-8 (Kim Schrier vs Matt Larkin) | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-12 | 2022-11-09 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-09", 0.3642381694545372], ["2022-11-09", 0.40003662326112066], ["2022-11-09", 0.41074882789606826], ["2022-11-09", 0.4480661919823681], ["2022-11-09", 0.5019337661139398], ["2022-11-09", 0.5615855697794496], ["2022-11-09", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-09", 0.65], ["2022-11-09", 0.6613892587925586], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/Labyran/clout-shark-prediction-will-lav-be | Will revolve YES if Lavenderlune is on Will resolve NO other wise | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-12 | Clout Shark Prediction: Will Lav be on >50% of streams this week? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2022-11-10 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-10", 0.16190328732248307], ["2022-11-10", 0.17304069913173292], ["2022-11-10", 0.18857047971984336], ["2022-11-10", 0.2441751430886645], ["2022-11-10", 0.2808988764044944], ["2022-11-11", 0.07000000000000008], ["2022-11-11", 0.08046317280104041], ["2022-11-11", 0.1119469673674317], ["2022-11-11", 0.116488073... | https://manifold.markets/AlastairFraser/will-the-ftx-future-fund-have-stabl | To what extent will FTX Future have access to assests (presumably diversified pre-collapse) in a reasonably stable manner to fund further work? | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-10-29 | Will the FTX Future Fund have stable assets >=1B$ at the start of 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-15 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.00669503178760864], ["2022-11-15", 0.007800178027732266], ["2022-11-15", 0.007831834950162854], ["2022-11-15", 0.00794124277325006], ["2022-11-15", 0.0085247792402121], ["2022-11-15", 0.008570107959197335], ["2022-11-15", 0.013442526746486135], ["2022-11-15", 0.015365735837527632], ["2022-11-15", 0.01... | https://manifold.markets/Cooley/will-dgg-get-a-20x-or-higher-mmmm-c | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-15 | Will DGG get a 20x or higher MMMM combo in the next 15 minutes? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-20 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.7627552519504504], ["2022-11-15", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-11-15", 0.8268762621989586], ["2022-11-15", 0.870813600039666], ["2022-11-16", 0.5027236653576244], ["2022-11-16", 0.54], ["2022-11-16", 0.63], ["2022-11-16", 0.6601498328111619], ["2022-11-16", 0.6674075292979732], ["2022-11-17", 0.68], ["... | https://manifold.markets/PelidesAchilles/will-ferrari-take-second-place-in-t | If Ferrari ends the 2022 Season with more Constructors Point than Mercedes this Market will resolve as "YES" If Mercedes overtake Ferrari in Constructors Points this Market will resolve "NO" As of the Brazilian GP Ferrari has 524 Points and Mercedes has 505. So Mercedes has to outscore Ferrari by more than 19 Points. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-20 | Will Ferrari take Second Place in the Formula 1 Constructors Championship? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-24 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.41643650987168535], ["2022-11-15", 0.48425250981822165], ["2022-11-15", 0.5678927355428371], ["2022-11-16", 0.544516104806606], ["2022-11-16", 0.5630610741682346], ["2022-11-18", 0.5794197058395958], ["2022-11-22", 0.5592434591891614], ["2022-11-23", 0.5443951043107815], ["2022-11-24", 0.2100000000000... | https://manifold.markets/Daconomist/will-more-than-15-million-germans-w | The question resolves as Yes if more than 15 million viewers follow the FIFA World Cup 2022 match between Japan and Germany on the tv channel ARD (public broadcaster). The resolution source will be Nov 15, 10:10pm: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-24 | FIFA World Cup 2022: Will more than 15 million Germans watch Germany vs. Japan on TV? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.18], ["2022-11-15", 0.36976247252038097], ["2022-11-15", 0.3732835477501363], ["2022-11-15", 0.44999999999999996], ["2022-11-15", 0.44999999999999996], ["2022-11-15", 0.44999999999999996], ["2022-11-15", 0.45000000000000007], ["2022-11-15", 0.5], ["2022-11-17", 0.22048556202861194], ["2022-11-17", 0.2... | https://manifold.markets/cos/will-nexo-become-insolvent-by-the-e | Nexo is a fintech company and platform offering cryptocurrency-backed consumer loans as well as other cryptocurrency-related financial products. This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Nexo ( | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Nexo become insolvent by the end of the year? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-07 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-15", 0.71], ["2022-11-15", 0.71], ["2022-11-15", 0.7536624279956552], ["2022-11-15", 0.86], ["2022-11-16", 0.835645770845891], ["2022-11-16", 0.841833535360863], ["2022-11-22", 0.6517102302773569], ["2022-11-22", 0.6517102302773569], ["2022-11-22", 0.6517102302773569], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-any-longterm-market-have-at-le | A "long-term market" here will mean any market that, per its stated resolution criteria, has a decent chance of not resolving until after the beginning of 2030. (Not including markets that will never resolve, like the Destiny "permanent" markets.) | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-07 | Will any long-term market have at least 200 traders by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.10732730508891072], ["2022-11-15", 0.11107772450313844], ["2022-11-15", 0.15898251192368837], ["2022-11-15", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-12-01", 0.11372871131772383], ["2022-12-02", 0.10734923213175451], ["2022-12-05", 0.09749298961308693], ["2022-12-05", 0.10221335612020437], ["2022-12-06", 0.060000... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/2022-fifa-world-cup-will-any-player | Will resolve to YES if there will be at least one game where one player have scored 4 or more goals for his team. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-19 | 2022 FIFA World Cup: Will any player score a haul - 4 goals in one game? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.19999999999999996], ["2022-11-15", 0.21280070599144535], ["2022-11-15", 0.25098238105579346], ["2022-11-15", 0.2514637025268836], ["2022-11-15", 0.25146370252688377], ["2022-11-15", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-11-15", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-11-15", 0.49999999999999994], ["2022-11-15", 0.7719810... | https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-sbf-be-federally-indicted-by-e | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried, co-founder and CEO of FTX, is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between November 10, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-14 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-16", 0.6430293934030071], ["2022-11-18", 0.6875772377693157], ["2022-11-23", 0.7172419855783492], ["2022-11-27", 0.7387790705882576], ["2022-11-29", 0.6892462429184042], ["2022-11-29", 0.7099999999999999], ["2022-11-29", 0.7427678278289829], ["2022-12-05", 0.75547333501244... | https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-gpt4-be-at-least-partially-tra | The obvious YES resolution is if some form of RLHF ( The RL loop must actually directly affect the weights. If there's some RL for, say, architecture search or hyperparameter optimization as an outer loop that doesn't count. Nov 25, 11:10pm: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | GPT-4 #2: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL? | manifold | 1 |
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