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2018-09-10 | 2018-08-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-11", 0.055], ["2018-08-11", 0.055], ["2018-08-11", 0.035], ["2018-08-12", 0.035], ["2018-08-12", 0.187], ["2018-08-12", 0.21], ["2018-08-12", 0.239], ["2018-08-12", 0.25], ["2018-08-12", 0.276], ["2018-08-12", 0.293], ["2018-08-13", 0.293], ["2018-08-13", 0.28], ["2018-08-13", 0.377], ["2018-08-13", 0.343], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1347/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
Google Trends tracks how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest value for the given region and period of interest. A value of 100 is the peak popular... | true | 2018-08-23 | Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-29 | 2018-08-10 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-11", 0.01], ["2018-08-11", 0.01], ["2018-08-11", 0.095], ["2018-08-11", 0.107], ["2018-08-11", 0.174], ["2018-08-11", 0.148], ["2018-08-12", 0.198], ["2018-08-12", 0.233], ["2018-08-12", 0.241], ["2018-08-12", 0.264], ["2018-08-12", 0.281], ["2018-08-12", 0.281], ["2018-08-12", 0.299], ["2018-08-12", 0.283],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1354/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On August 7, Elon Musk tweeted "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured."
In the days since, there has been no followup information about what funding has been secured. News reports indicate even Tesla's board of directors have not been given any detailed information.
The SEC is reportedly investig... | true | 2018-09-01 | Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-01 | 2018-08-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-22", 0.25], ["2018-12-22", 0.672], ["2018-12-22", 0.698], ["2018-12-22", 0.698], ["2018-12-23", 0.703], ["2018-12-23", 0.671], ["2018-12-23", 0.68], ["2018-12-23", 0.671], ["2018-12-24", 0.67], ["2018-12-25", 0.655], ["2018-12-25", 0.656], ["2018-12-25", 0.657], ["2018-12-25", 0.664], ["2018-12-26", 0.686], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1355/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | It was previously asked whether there would be a crewed SpaceX flight in 2018. Given that the first launch of the Dragon V2 (SpaceX's first human rated vehicle) is slated for a first crewed flight in April 2019 (as of the writing of this question) and that flight schedules are only extremely rarely moved forward, that ... | true | 2019-03-02 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-08-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-01", 0.3], ["2018-09-01", 0.155], ["2018-09-01", 0.155], ["2018-09-01", 0.155], ["2018-09-01", 0.187], ["2018-09-01", 0.25], ["2018-09-01", 0.248], ["2018-09-01", 0.22], ["2018-09-01", 0.194], ["2018-09-01", 0.189], ["2018-09-01", 0.18], ["2018-09-01", 0.181], ["2018-09-01", 0.187], ["2018-09-01", 0.197], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1362/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In light of continued rumblings that Trump could, in fact, take a face-to-face meeting with Robert Mueller, let's reissue the previous version of this question with a new deadline.
For now, let's see if his legal team can convince him to put it off through the end of the year. And additionally, let's stipulate that the... | true | 2018-09-20 | Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-08 | 2018-08-15 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-18", 0.03], ["2018-08-18", 0.218], ["2018-08-18", 0.26], ["2018-08-18", 0.229], ["2018-08-18", 0.228], ["2018-08-18", 0.226], ["2018-08-18", 0.229], ["2018-08-19", 0.207], ["2018-08-19", 0.214], ["2018-08-19", 0.214], ["2018-08-19", 0.223], ["2018-08-19", 0.245], ["2018-08-19", 0.245], ["2018-08-19", 0.246],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1365/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The United Kingdom (UK) is scheduled to withdraw from the European Union (EU) on 29 March 2019, a date that was set when Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on 29 March 2017. This question will resolve as "yes" if th... | true | 2018-09-07 | Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-24 | 2018-08-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-17", 0.9], ["2018-08-17", 0.775], ["2018-08-17", 0.847], ["2018-08-17", 0.847], ["2018-08-17", 0.842], ["2018-08-17", 0.842], ["2018-08-17", 0.787], ["2018-08-17", 0.787], ["2018-08-17", 0.749], ["2018-08-17", 0.731], ["2018-08-17", 0.719], ["2018-08-17", 0.697], ["2018-08-17", 0.706], ["2018-08-17", 0.68], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1367/ | Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game DotA 2.
On Augus... | Sports | Will OpenAI's system win more games than it loses at The International?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match or matches occur under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie... | true | 2018-08-20 | Will OpenAI Five win the majority of its DotA 2 matches at The International? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-23 | 2018-08-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-21", 0.75], ["2018-08-21", 0.7], ["2018-08-21", 0.7], ["2018-08-21", 0.792], ["2018-08-21", 0.792], ["2018-08-21", 0.814], ["2018-08-21", 0.814], ["2018-08-21", 0.759], ["2018-08-21", 0.741], ["2018-08-21", 0.741], ["2018-08-21", 0.724], ["2018-08-21", 0.714], ["2018-08-21", 0.714], ["2018-08-22", 0.708], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1383/ | Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game DotA 2.
On Augus... | Sports | Will OpenAI's system win the first game it plays at The International?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match or matches occur under. Closes retroactively 10 minutes prior to start of the first match. | true | 2018-08-22 | Short-fuse question: Will OpenAI Five win the *first* of its DotA 2 matches at The International? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-30 | 2018-08-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-20", 0.1], ["2018-08-20", 0.43], ["2018-08-20", 0.43], ["2018-08-21", 0.427], ["2018-08-21", 0.456], ["2018-08-21", 0.456], ["2018-08-21", 0.465], ["2018-08-21", 0.475], ["2018-08-21", 0.475], ["2018-08-22", 0.473], ["2018-08-22", 0.473], ["2018-08-22", 0.452], ["2018-08-22", 0.458], ["2018-08-22", 0.433], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1368/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Are you having a good day? Yeah, then you might want to stop reading right now. Consider yourself warned, normie. You might be wondering, who or what is Q or QAnon? The answer varies significantly depending upon who you ask Ask a supporter of QAnon and they will tell you that Q is a high ranking military official who i... | true | 2018-09-30 | Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-18 | 2018-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-03", 0.4], ["2018-10-03", 0.163], ["2018-10-03", 0.163], ["2018-10-03", 0.155], ["2018-10-03", 0.122], ["2018-10-03", 0.122], ["2018-10-03", 0.126], ["2018-10-03", 0.141], ["2018-10-03", 0.142], ["2018-10-03", 0.153], ["2018-10-03", 0.168], ["2018-10-04", 0.168], ["2018-10-04", 0.198], ["2018-10-04", 0.202],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1369/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | In July The Daily Beast reported that Senator Claire McCaskill was the target of a Russian operation:
The attempt against McCaskill’s office was a variant of the password-stealing technique used by Russia’s so-called “Fancy Bear” hackers against Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, in 2016.
The hackers sent forge... | true | 2018-11-04 | Will the US midterms be hacked? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-03 | 2018-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-18", 0.2], ["2018-09-18", 0.2], ["2018-09-18", 0.105], ["2018-09-18", 0.068], ["2018-09-18", 0.068], ["2018-09-18", 0.056], ["2018-09-18", 0.073], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.08], ["2018-09-18", 0.075], ["2018-09-18", 0.069], ["2018-09-19", 0.069], ["2018-09-19", 0.055], ["2018-09-19", 0.062], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1372/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Are you ready for some football?! Awesome, now let’s talk about a fun topic... death.
During the past 98 years, Chuck Hughes is the only NFL player to die on the field during a game. In 1971, Chuck was playing for the Detroit Lions when he had a heart attack on the field. He was rushed to the hospital where he was pron... | true | 2018-10-18 | Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-08-20 | ["https://worldathletics.org/news/report/eliud-kipchoge-world-record-berlin-marathon-2022", "https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/10/kipchoges-sub-two-hour-marathon-how-legitimate-it/599974/"] | binary | [["2018-09-26", 0.5], ["2018-09-26", 0.617], ["2018-09-26", 0.51], ["2018-09-26", 0.549], ["2018-09-26", 0.53], ["2018-09-26", 0.543], ["2018-09-26", 0.567], ["2018-09-26", 0.587], ["2018-09-26", 0.587], ["2018-09-26", 0.59], ["2018-09-26", 0.576], ["2018-09-26", 0.576], ["2018-09-26", 0.568], ["2018-09-27", 0.568], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1373/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.
In 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 sec... | true | 2018-11-11 | Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-30 | 2018-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-24", 0.36], ["2018-08-25", 0.21], ["2018-08-25", 0.198], ["2018-08-26", 0.195], ["2018-08-28", 0.21], ["2018-08-29", 0.212], ["2018-08-31", 0.23], ["2018-09-01", 0.23], ["2018-09-01", 0.219], ["2018-09-02", 0.219], ["2018-09-02", 0.246], ["2018-09-03", 0.248], ["2018-09-04", 0.259], ["2018-09-05", 0.259], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1379/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be ... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-08 | 2018-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-05", 0.56], ["2018-09-05", 0.401], ["2018-09-06", 0.479], ["2018-09-07", 0.491], ["2018-09-07", 0.487], ["2018-09-08", 0.487], ["2018-09-08", 0.491], ["2018-09-09", 0.493], ["2018-09-09", 0.492], ["2018-09-10", 0.495], ["2018-09-12", 0.491], ["2018-09-13", 0.487], ["2018-09-14", 0.486], ["2018-09-15", 0.488]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1380/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be ... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-08 | 2018-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-05", 0.25], ["2018-09-05", 0.458], ["2018-09-06", 0.576], ["2018-09-06", 0.568], ["2018-09-06", 0.563], ["2018-09-06", 0.603], ["2018-09-07", 0.603], ["2018-09-07", 0.594], ["2018-09-08", 0.594], ["2018-09-08", 0.602], ["2018-09-08", 0.619], ["2018-09-09", 0.605], ["2018-09-09", 0.605], ["2018-09-10", 0.572]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1381/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be ... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-01 | 2018-08-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-29", 0.5], ["2018-08-29", 0.485], ["2018-08-29", 0.485], ["2018-08-29", 0.507], ["2018-08-29", 0.504], ["2018-08-31", 0.503], ["2018-08-31", 0.503], ["2018-09-01", 0.521], ["2018-09-02", 0.519], ["2018-09-02", 0.519], ["2018-09-02", 0.505], ["2018-09-02", 0.505], ["2018-09-02", 0.512], ["2018-09-03", 0.513],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1387/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | On August 2nd, 2018, the shortlist for the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize was released. The winner will be announced at an award ceremony on October 1st and receive £25,000.
The shortlisted works are all over the scientific spectrum from the the interaction of humanity and machines to the strange b... | true | 2018-09-30 | Who will win the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-01 | 2018-08-31 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-03", 0.36], ["2018-09-03", 0.35], ["2018-09-03", 0.343], ["2018-09-03", 0.392], ["2018-09-04", 0.392], ["2018-09-04", 0.381], ["2018-09-04", 0.367], ["2018-09-05", 0.367], ["2018-09-05", 0.337], ["2018-09-05", 0.337], ["2018-09-05", 0.344], ["2018-09-05", 0.344], ["2018-09-05", 0.359], ["2018-09-06", 0.355],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1404/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Initially, the decision on the location for Amazon's massive HQ2 was supposed to have been handed down in early 2018. However, with a closed-door, national, billion-dollar bidding war in full swing, the assuredly-outrageous particulars of which remain a mystery even to the people making the bids, the momentum continues... | true | 2018-10-01 | Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-22 | 2018-09-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-09", 0.51], ["2018-09-10", 0.334], ["2018-09-12", 0.345], ["2018-09-14", 0.292], ["2018-09-18", 0.305], ["2018-09-19", 0.305], ["2018-09-20", 0.388], ["2018-09-23", 0.386], ["2018-09-25", 0.378], ["2018-09-26", 0.372], ["2018-09-27", 0.372], ["2018-09-28", 0.374], ["2018-09-30", 0.374], ["2018-09-30", 0.378]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1412/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Canada is heading into a federal election in the fall of 2019. Recently, there has been a fracture in the Conservative Party of Canada: the libertarian-leaning MP from Quebec, Maxime Bernier, left the party over complaints that it is "morally and intellectually corrupt" and beholden to special interest groups whom they... | true | 2019-10-21 | Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-07 | 2018-09-04 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-07", 0.05], ["2018-09-07", 0.31], ["2018-09-08", 0.346], ["2018-09-08", 0.339], ["2018-09-09", 0.323], ["2018-09-09", 0.327], ["2018-09-10", 0.327], ["2018-09-10", 0.331], ["2018-09-11", 0.338], ["2018-09-11", 0.34], ["2018-09-12", 0.341], ["2018-09-12", 0.344], ["2018-09-13", 0.344], ["2018-09-13", 0.338], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1414/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Expanding on the aggregate question How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?, this focuses on one US Senate race that has become unusually close:
Texas last elected a Democratic senator when Lloyd Bentsen was reelected in 1988; Ted Cruz was elected in 2012 by 16 points. However, sev... | true | 2018-11-04 | Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-01 | 2018-09-05 | ["https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1807/1807.\u2026)"] | binary | [["2018-09-05", 0.2], ["2018-09-05", 0.11], ["2018-09-05", 0.087], ["2018-09-06", 0.09], ["2018-09-06", 0.09], ["2018-09-06", 0.084], ["2018-09-06", 0.082], ["2018-09-06", 0.082], ["2018-09-06", 0.082], ["2018-09-06", 0.078], ["2018-09-06", 0.092], ["2018-09-06", 0.092], ["2018-09-06", 0.086], ["2018-09-06", 0.083], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1417/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Extraordinary claims, vestiges of a scandal, fake emails… is this a US election? Nope, it’s contemporary science. I confess that I only have a dubious conception of superconductors. Despite my sophomoric understanding, even I can see the monumental implications of such a technology.
In “Evidence for Superconductivity a... | true | 2018-11-05 | Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-06 | 2018-09-05 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-07", 0.76], ["2018-09-07", 0.76], ["2018-09-07", 0.596], ["2018-09-07", 0.501], ["2018-09-07", 0.499], ["2018-09-08", 0.499], ["2018-09-08", 0.543], ["2018-09-08", 0.54], ["2018-09-08", 0.54], ["2018-09-08", 0.507], ["2018-09-08", 0.513], ["2018-09-09", 0.502], ["2018-09-09", 0.493], ["2018-09-09", 0.489], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1421/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In an unusual development, the New York Times published an anonymous editorial by a senior Trump administration figure explaining how Trump has been tempered and managed by (self-proclaimed) saner and more reasonable minds. It's a rather amazing (while also utterly unsurprising) read.
Will the author of this editorial ... | true | 2018-10-06 | Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-01 | 2018-09-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-09", 0.58], ["2018-09-09", 0.64], ["2018-09-09", 0.612], ["2018-09-09", 0.644], ["2018-09-09", 0.644], ["2018-09-09", 0.644], ["2018-09-09", 0.64], ["2018-09-09", 0.622], ["2018-09-09", 0.622], ["2018-09-09", 0.631], ["2018-09-09", 0.621], ["2018-09-10", 0.621], ["2018-09-10", 0.619], ["2018-09-10", 0.642], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1420/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On August 2, 2018, Apple became the first conpany to have a market cap over one trillion dollars. Five weeks later Amazon became the second.
This question asks, six months after Apple reached that milestone, will it still be bigger than Amazon?
This resolves positively if the market cap of Apple as of market close on F... | true | 2018-11-06 | Will Apple's market cap exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2018-09-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-13", 0.86], ["2018-09-14", 0.7], ["2018-09-15", 0.707], ["2018-09-17", 0.71], ["2018-09-18", 0.704], ["2018-09-19", 0.693], ["2018-09-20", 0.692], ["2018-09-22", 0.683], ["2018-09-23", 0.683], ["2018-09-24", 0.683], ["2018-09-29", 0.685], ["2018-09-30", 0.685], ["2018-10-02", 0.687], ["2018-10-06", 0.687], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1424/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Social Sciences | Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups Giving What We Can and Givewell.
Since then, around 3600 have pledged to donate a substan... | true | 2019-09-01 | Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-03 | 2018-09-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-19", 0.01], ["2018-09-19", 0.106], ["2018-09-20", 0.105], ["2018-09-20", 0.084], ["2018-09-20", 0.084], ["2018-09-21", 0.114], ["2018-09-21", 0.112], ["2018-09-22", 0.118], ["2018-09-22", 0.117], ["2018-09-23", 0.117], ["2018-09-23", 0.119], ["2018-09-23", 0.158], ["2018-09-24", 0.158], ["2018-09-25", 0.155]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1442/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In the run-up to the 2016 Presidential election, reality TV insiders claimed that video footage of Donald Trump taken on the set of "The Apprentice" showed him making racially insenitive remarks (e.g. using the n-word) and otherwise acting boorishly. The tapes, if they exist, have not yet come to light. But the hunt is... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-09-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-27", 0.25], ["2018-09-27", 0.17], ["2018-09-27", 0.215], ["2018-09-27", 0.252], ["2018-09-27", 0.257], ["2018-09-27", 0.276], ["2018-09-27", 0.281], ["2018-09-27", 0.279], ["2018-09-27", 0.279], ["2018-09-28", 0.276], ["2018-09-28", 0.276], ["2018-09-28", 0.271], ["2018-09-28", 0.266], ["2018-09-28", 0.265],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1443/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | in a May 15 homily, Pope Francis hinted that he may not remain the Holy See that much longer.
The Catholic News Agency reported:
the pope noted that St. Paul, who was “compelled by the Holy Spirit” to leave Ephesus and journey to Jerusalem, “shows us the pathway for every bishop when it’s time to take his leave and ste... | true | 2018-10-10 | Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-09-18 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-20", 0.07], ["2018-09-21", 0.217], ["2018-09-21", 0.183], ["2018-09-21", 0.189], ["2018-09-22", 0.187], ["2018-09-22", 0.167], ["2018-09-23", 0.16], ["2018-09-23", 0.156], ["2018-09-24", 0.142], ["2018-09-24", 0.14], ["2018-09-24", 0.14], ["2018-09-25", 0.136], ["2018-09-25", 0.131], ["2018-09-25", 0.127], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1451/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | After they soared so high in 2017, 2018 has not been kind to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, many of which have been in slow and steady decline. But as of start of fall, they may have leveled off. Will there now be an increase? We ask:
Will one BTC be at or above 12000 USD at least at one point between 20th Septemb... | true | 2018-11-23 | Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-10-15 | 2018-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-23", 0.2], ["2018-09-23", 0.2], ["2018-09-23", 0.377], ["2018-09-23", 0.368], ["2018-09-23", 0.354], ["2018-09-23", 0.334], ["2018-09-23", 0.334], ["2018-09-23", 0.32], ["2018-09-23", 0.286], ["2018-09-23", 0.286], ["2018-09-23", 0.283], ["2018-09-23", 0.29], ["2018-09-23", 0.29], ["2018-09-23", 0.29], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1456/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The eminent mathematician Sir Michael Atiyah will be giving a talk on Monday 2018-09-24 at the Heidelberg Laureates' Forum in which, so it is claimed, he will be presenting a proof of the Riemann hypothesis. Here's an announcement from the HLF twitter account, and an article in New Scientist magazine.
The Riemann hypot... | true | 2018-09-24 | Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-08 | 2018-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-09", 0.305], ["2018-10-19", 0.296], ["2018-10-25", 0.295], ["2018-11-04", 0.125], ["2018-11-13", 0.118], ["2018-12-11", 0.109], ["2018-12-14", 0.109], ["2018-12-25", 0.114], ["2019-01-03", 0.118], ["2019-01-12", 0.118], ["2019-01-17", 0.108], ["2019-01-25", 0.107], ["2019-02-02", 0.105]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1457/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.
A brief overview on her:
Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local ... | true | 2021-10-24 | Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-01 | 2018-09-26 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-29", 0.59], ["2018-09-29", 0.395], ["2018-09-29", 0.285], ["2018-09-29", 0.285], ["2018-09-29", 0.278], ["2018-09-29", 0.232], ["2018-09-29", 0.232], ["2018-09-29", 0.284], ["2018-09-29", 0.314], ["2018-09-29", 0.293], ["2018-09-29", 0.271], ["2018-09-29", 0.271], ["2018-09-29", 0.252], ["2018-09-29", 0.252]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1463/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October?Adapted from (from Predictit.org)
See this Metaculus question if you would like to know more about QAnon.
Why think that Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) would tweet about QAnon? First and foremost, he is a prolific tweeter (about seven per day). Secondly, th... | true | 2018-10-05 | Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-09-28 | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63771109", "https://www.ft.com/content/d8231c04-5d7f-468e-8547-77587546734e", "https://twitter.com/vivianwubeijing/status/1596580477041016832", "https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1596594425610014720", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1583697018760810497", "https://twitter.c... | binary | [["2018-10-01", 0.67], ["2018-10-15", 0.738], ["2018-11-01", 0.741], ["2018-11-18", 0.739], ["2018-11-29", 0.745], ["2018-12-17", 0.748], ["2018-12-25", 0.748], ["2019-01-08", 0.745], ["2019-01-17", 0.747], ["2019-01-29", 0.752], ["2019-02-12", 0.762], ["2019-02-27", 0.763], ["2019-04-22", 0.763], ["2019-05-05", 0.764]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1468/ | Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremo... | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if:
Xi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or
Xi remains paramount leader past 2022, or
Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-11-08 | 2018-10-02 | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2\u2026)"] | binary | [["2018-10-06", 0.3], ["2018-10-06", 0.307], ["2018-10-06", 0.394], ["2018-10-06", 0.378], ["2018-10-06", 0.378], ["2018-10-06", 0.362], ["2018-10-07", 0.341], ["2018-10-07", 0.36], ["2018-10-07", 0.36], ["2018-10-07", 0.352], ["2018-10-07", 0.352], ["2018-10-07", 0.366], ["2018-10-07", 0.366], ["2018-10-07", 0.362], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1479/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | How many people must be killed or injured in order for an event to constitute a ‘mass shooting’? Congress defines the term ‘mass killings’ as, “the term ‘mass killings’ means 3 or more killings in a single incident.” Some balk at this definition, contending that the threshold is too low. You need more than three victim... | true | 2018-10-31 | Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-06 | 2018-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-04", 0.35], ["2018-10-04", 0.35], ["2018-10-04", 0.467], ["2018-10-04", 0.467], ["2018-10-04", 0.425], ["2018-10-04", 0.448], ["2018-10-04", 0.495], ["2018-10-04", 0.52], ["2018-10-04", 0.486], ["2018-10-04", 0.49], ["2018-10-04", 0.507], ["2018-10-04", 0.529], ["2018-10-04", 0.51], ["2018-10-04", 0.51], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1483/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Metaculus previously asked Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018? and How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?.
Predict here on whether the Senate vote will take place by the start of Monday. Resolves positive if so, negative if no vote takes place for whate... | true | 2018-10-06 | Will the U.S. Senate vote on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh before Monday, October the 8th? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-27 | 2018-10-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-12", 0.06], ["2018-10-13", 0.463], ["2018-10-15", 0.45], ["2018-10-17", 0.445], ["2018-10-19", 0.442], ["2018-10-24", 0.446], ["2018-10-25", 0.467], ["2018-11-02", 0.467], ["2018-11-07", 0.481], ["2018-11-08", 0.486], ["2018-11-09", 0.559], ["2018-11-12", 0.573], ["2018-11-13", 0.579], ["2018-11-16", 0.579],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1498/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | So far, Trump appointed two Justices to the SCOTUS - Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh -, and there are no vacancies. However, there is a good chance that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate until 2020, and there might be a vacancy before then. For example, justice Thomas might decide to retire when he can b... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-05 | 2018-10-14 | ["https://data.europa.eu/."] | binary | [["2018-10-21", 0.6], ["2018-10-21", 0.465], ["2018-10-21", 0.477], ["2018-10-22", 0.477], ["2018-10-22", 0.458], ["2018-10-24", 0.485], ["2018-10-25", 0.489], ["2018-10-25", 0.469], ["2018-10-25", 0.469], ["2018-10-28", 0.49], ["2018-11-02", 0.49], ["2018-11-02", 0.491], ["2018-11-02", 0.491], ["2018-11-02", 0.491], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1509/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In May 2019, the EU will hold the election for 705 seats in the European Parliament by universal adult suffrage, with about 400 million eligible voters selected from an EU population of 512 million people.
Out of the seven institutions of the EU, the parliament is one of the three legislative bodies, among the European... | true | 2019-05-21 | Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-11-27 | 2018-10-14 | ["https://data.europa.eu/."] | binary | [["2018-10-21", 0.85], ["2018-10-21", 0.885], ["2018-10-21", 0.907], ["2018-10-21", 0.867], ["2018-10-21", 0.802], ["2018-10-21", 0.802], ["2018-10-22", 0.814], ["2018-10-22", 0.812], ["2018-10-22", 0.791], ["2018-10-22", 0.805], ["2018-10-22", 0.804], ["2018-10-24", 0.784], ["2018-10-25", 0.765], ["2018-10-25", 0.765]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1511/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In May 2019, the EU will hold the election for 705 seats in the European Parliament by universal adult suffrage, with about 400 million eligible voters selected from an EU population of 512 million people.
Out of the seven institutions of the EU, the parliament is one of the three legislative bodies, among the European... | true | 2019-05-21 | Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-27 | 2018-10-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-21", 0.65], ["2018-10-21", 0.575], ["2018-10-21", 0.55], ["2018-10-21", 0.538], ["2018-10-21", 0.5], ["2018-10-21", 0.5], ["2018-10-22", 0.514], ["2018-10-22", 0.514], ["2018-10-22", 0.512], ["2018-10-22", 0.557], ["2018-10-22", 0.529], ["2018-10-22", 0.522], ["2018-10-22", 0.522], ["2018-10-22", 0.522], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1518/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | On Friday, October 5th the Hubble Telescope was placed in Safe Mode because one of the gyroscopes it uses to direct and stabilize its movement failed. This was not unexpected as this particular gyro had been exhibiting end-of-life behavior for the past year. Two similar gyros have already failed. Back in 2009 six new g... | true | 2018-11-01 | Will the Hubble Telescope resume operations in its three-gyro configuration before the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-01 | 2018-10-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-29", 0.7], ["2018-10-29", 0.45], ["2018-10-30", 0.4], ["2018-10-30", 0.4], ["2018-10-30", 0.436], ["2018-10-31", 0.475], ["2018-10-31", 0.475], ["2018-11-02", 0.458], ["2018-11-02", 0.461], ["2018-11-02", 0.461], ["2018-11-02", 0.464], ["2018-11-02", 0.47], ["2018-11-02", 0.47], ["2018-11-04", 0.428], ["2018... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1531/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was one of the most successful arms control agreements in recent history. Signed in 1987 by President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev, the treaty called for disarmament of all nuclear and conventional missiles and their launchers with ranges between 500–5,500 km (310–... | true | 2019-07-15 | Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-19 | 2018-10-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-29", 0.35], ["2018-12-29", 0.35], ["2018-12-29", 0.442], ["2018-12-29", 0.483], ["2018-12-29", 0.45], ["2018-12-29", 0.469], ["2018-12-30", 0.514], ["2018-12-30", 0.512], ["2018-12-30", 0.511], ["2018-12-31", 0.459], ["2018-12-31", 0.459], ["2019-01-01", 0.432], ["2019-01-01", 0.425], ["2019-01-01", 0.421], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1533/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | When unveiling Model 3 in 2016 Musk was promising "well of course it'll be $35,000", but since then Tesla has struggled to deliver.
Recently, during the conference call for Tesla’s third quarter financial results Musk was saying:
If we could produce a $35,000 car today, we would do it. We need more work, there is more ... | true | 2019-02-27 | Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-11-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-13", 0.01], ["2018-11-13", 0.095], ["2018-11-13", 0.082], ["2018-11-13", 0.109], ["2018-11-14", 0.164], ["2018-11-14", 0.158], ["2018-11-14", 0.157], ["2018-11-14", 0.167], ["2018-11-15", 0.174], ["2018-11-15", 0.169], ["2018-11-15", 0.222], ["2018-11-15", 0.214], ["2018-11-16", 0.223], ["2018-11-16", 0.245]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1550/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As a follow up on a previous question that resolved firmly negative, let's extend our timeline to the next year.
Trumps's approval rating has hovered in the low-40s since the start of 2018, a slight recovery from last year's high-30s. The economy has thus far remained steadfast, and a bombshell from the Mueller investi... | true | 2019-02-01 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2018-11-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-23", 0.65], ["2018-11-23", 0.625], ["2018-11-23", 0.65], ["2018-11-23", 0.712], ["2018-11-23", 0.712], ["2018-11-23", 0.65], ["2018-11-23", 0.636], ["2018-11-24", 0.636], ["2018-11-24", 0.627], ["2018-11-24", 0.613], ["2018-11-25", 0.62], ["2018-11-25", 0.623], ["2018-11-25", 0.619], ["2018-11-25", 0.63], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1555/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Dutch inventor Boyan Slat founded the Ocean Cleanup, an ambitious project to remove plastic from the oceans. On September 8, 2018 they launched their new system. Here’s how it works:
CREATE A COASTLINE
The system consists of a 600-meter-long floater that sits at the surface of the water and a tapered 3-meter-deep skirt... | true | 2019-12-01 | Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-09-16 | 2018-11-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-12", 0.105], ["2018-11-12", 0.105], ["2018-11-12", 0.153], ["2018-11-13", 0.192], ["2018-11-13", 0.192], ["2018-11-13", 0.237], ["2018-11-13", 0.259], ["2018-11-13", 0.26], ["2018-11-13", 0.246], ["2018-11-13", 0.246], ["2018-11-13", 0.3], ["2018-11-14", 0.3], ["2018-11-14", 0.323], ["2018-11-14", 0.332], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1556/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year.
The latter is particularly interesting since Merkel h... | true | 2019-03-31 | Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-05-17 | 2018-11-15 | ["https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardi\u2026).", "https://m.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politics/23\u2026", "https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics\u2026"] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.645], ["2018-12-04", 0.65], ["2018-12-04", 0.653], ["2018-12-05", 0.662], ["2018-12-05", 0.662], ["2018-12-05", 0.652], ["2018-12-05", 0.651], ["2018-12-05", 0.64], ["2018-12-06", 0.64], ["2018-12-06", 0.626], ["2018-12-08", 0.624], ["2018-12-09", 0.61], ["2018-12-10", 0.607], ["2018-12-10", 0.599], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1570/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Australia is expected to hold a federal election in 2019. The centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) have been in opposition since 2013, with the centre-right Liberal-National Party (LNP, Coalition) in power or having a minority government since then.
Bill Shorten is the current leader of the ALP. The ALP has been pe... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-16 | 2018-11-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-19", 0.33], ["2018-11-19", 0.353], ["2018-11-19", 0.363], ["2018-11-19", 0.301], ["2018-11-20", 0.31], ["2018-11-20", 0.318], ["2018-11-20", 0.332], ["2018-11-20", 0.321], ["2018-11-20", 0.322], ["2018-11-21", 0.323], ["2018-11-22", 0.32], ["2018-11-22", 0.324], ["2018-11-22", 0.328], ["2018-11-22", 0.328], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1580/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked, whether the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be stopped before it killed 100 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 210.
It is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the ... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-11-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-19", 0.55], ["2018-11-19", 0.585], ["2018-11-19", 0.668], ["2018-11-19", 0.612], ["2018-11-19", 0.655], ["2018-11-19", 0.668], ["2018-11-19", 0.666], ["2018-11-20", 0.669], ["2018-11-20", 0.665], ["2018-11-20", 0.665], ["2018-11-20", 0.629], ["2018-11-20", 0.627], ["2018-11-20", 0.632], ["2018-11-20", 0.632]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1581/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | UK is currently in a state of political turmoil after cold reception of Theresa's May government draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
According to the Independent:
The 1922 Committee, currently chaired by Sir Graham Brady, has the power to trigger a no confidence vote in the party leader in the event that it receives suc... | true | 2018-11-30 | Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-03-29 | 2018-11-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-20", 0.1], ["2018-11-20", 0.215], ["2018-11-20", 0.218], ["2018-11-20", 0.218], ["2018-11-20", 0.213], ["2018-11-20", 0.207], ["2018-11-20", 0.268], ["2018-11-20", 0.268], ["2018-11-21", 0.315], ["2018-11-21", 0.318], ["2018-11-21", 0.318], ["2018-11-21", 0.318], ["2018-11-21", 0.315], ["2018-11-21", 0.308],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1582/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | UK is currently in a state of political turmoil after cold reception of Theresa's May government draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
Theresa's May government is a minority government dependent on support of Democratic Unionist Party.
Currently the crucial question for Brexit process is whether the first draft of Brexit ... | true | 2018-12-15 | Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-13 | 2018-11-17 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-03", 0.37], ["2019-03-03", 0.323], ["2019-03-03", 0.292], ["2019-03-03", 0.339], ["2019-03-03", 0.282], ["2019-03-04", 0.282], ["2019-03-04", 0.303], ["2019-03-05", 0.298], ["2019-03-05", 0.293], ["2019-03-06", 0.301], ["2019-03-06", 0.304], ["2019-03-09", 0.3], ["2019-03-10", 0.318], ["2019-03-10", 0.318], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2638/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around $100 billion in mid 2007, and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar qu... | true | 2025-06-16 | When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-04-06 | 2018-11-29 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-02", 0.1], ["2018-12-02", 0.12], ["2018-12-02", 0.33], ["2018-12-02", 0.33], ["2018-12-02", 0.458], ["2018-12-03", 0.496], ["2018-12-03", 0.538], ["2018-12-03", 0.569], ["2018-12-03", 0.569], ["2018-12-03", 0.609], ["2018-12-03", 0.609], ["2018-12-03", 0.623], ["2018-12-03", 0.652], ["2018-12-03", 0.644], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1599/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Louis C.K. is a comedian known for his work in stand-up, television, and film. His stand-up comedy is critically acclaimed; in 2017, Rolling Stone listed him as the "#4 best stand-up comic of all time", the highest position they awarded to a living comedian.
Multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct as part of th... | true | 2019-12-31 | Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-10-14 | 2018-11-30 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.23], ["2018-12-04", 0.19], ["2018-12-04", 0.227], ["2018-12-04", 0.227], ["2018-12-04", 0.245], ["2018-12-04", 0.29], ["2018-12-04", 0.291], ["2018-12-04", 0.275], ["2018-12-04", 0.292], ["2018-12-04", 0.283], ["2018-12-04", 0.283], ["2018-12-05", 0.303], ["2018-12-05", 0.303], ["2018-12-05", 0.304], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1602/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | The People's Republic of China (PRC) is the most populous country in the world, with 1.4 billion inhabitants. It is also the second-largest economy in the world by GDP.
However, the number of people who have won Nobel Prizes and who were PRC citizens at the time they won their prize is very small: under the strictest d... | true | 2019-07-31 | Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-15 | 2018-12-01 | ["https://www.reddit.com/r/all/top/?t=day"] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.765], ["2018-12-04", 0.765], ["2018-12-04", 0.867], ["2018-12-04", 0.87], ["2018-12-04", 0.87], ["2018-12-04", 0.837], ["2018-12-04", 0.852], ["2018-12-04", 0.852], ["2018-12-04", 0.845], ["2018-12-04", 0.845], ["2018-12-05", 0.845], ["2018-12-05", 0.848], ["2018-12-05", 0.852], ["2018-12-05", 0.852],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1605/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | reddit is a social news aggregator and the 21st most visited site globally. Users submit links, images or text to 'subreddit' communities on the site which are then voted and commented on by other users. A score are given for each submission that has some relationship to the number of 'upvotes' minus the number of 'dow... | true | 2018-12-13 | Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-06-30 | 2018-12-01 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-05", 0.4], ["2018-12-05", 0.45], ["2018-12-05", 0.4], ["2018-12-06", 0.4], ["2018-12-06", 0.362], ["2018-12-06", 0.373], ["2018-12-06", 0.373], ["2018-12-06", 0.342], ["2018-12-06", 0.323], ["2018-12-06", 0.323], ["2018-12-07", 0.323], ["2018-12-07", 0.318], ["2018-12-08", 0.31], ["2018-12-08", 0.305], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1607/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Denisovans are a clade of hominins discovered in 2009. They are fascinating, unusual and mysterious:
Firstly, they are the first ancient hominin whose existence was inferred not by analysis of fossil features, but by analysing DNA – from a pinky finger bone. Secondly, all confirmed Denisovan samples are teeth and fragm... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-12 | 2018-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-05", 0.88], ["2018-12-05", 0.875], ["2018-12-05", 0.823], ["2018-12-05", 0.82], ["2018-12-05", 0.82], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.816], ["2018-12-06", 0.816], ["2018-12-06", 0.813], ["2018-12-06", 0.823], ["2018-12-06", 0.821], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1608/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | A quick exercise to test predictors' abilities at looking up relevant information and calculating simple probabilities.
I ask predictors to not post comments with details about the Mega Millions lottery or their predictions before the close date.
Will the U.S. Mega Millions lottery draw on December 11th 2018 contain at... | true | 2018-12-10 | Will the Mega Millions draw on December 11th 2018 contain a prime number? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-04-02 | 2018-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.99], ["2018-12-05", 0.85], ["2018-12-05", 0.85], ["2018-12-05", 0.821], ["2018-12-05", 0.821], ["2018-12-05", 0.716], ["2018-12-05", 0.716], ["2018-12-06", 0.693], ["2018-12-06", 0.681], ["2018-12-06", 0.684], ["2018-12-06", 0.675], ["2018-12-06", 0.662], ["2018-12-06", 0.657], ["2018-12-07", 0.65], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1609/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | This year, Fulham F.C. was promoted to the Premier League, the top tier of the English football league system.
It's not going well for them so far. With 14 matches played out of 38, they are currently placed at the bottom of the table, having lost 10 of their games.
If they end the season in the bottom three teams of t... | true | 2019-03-01 | Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-07-01 | 2018-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-05", 0.75], ["2018-12-05", 0.6], ["2018-12-05", 0.6], ["2018-12-05", 0.475], ["2018-12-05", 0.475], ["2018-12-05", 0.47], ["2018-12-05", 0.47], ["2018-12-06", 0.43], ["2018-12-06", 0.44], ["2018-12-06", 0.431], ["2018-12-06", 0.411], ["2018-12-06", 0.411], ["2018-12-06", 0.411], ["2018-12-07", 0.411], ["2018... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1610/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The direct-to-consumer personal genomics industry has entered an exponential growth phase.
AncestryDNA is one service in this industry. It is offered by Ancestry.com, a genealogy website with Mormon roots. The AncestryDNA database reached 10 million individuals at some point over the summer, a fact advertised on their ... | true | 2019-03-31 | Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-05-18 | 2018-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-06", 0.6], ["2018-12-06", 0.68], ["2018-12-06", 0.73], ["2018-12-07", 0.692], ["2018-12-07", 0.692], ["2018-12-08", 0.696], ["2018-12-08", 0.691], ["2018-12-08", 0.686], ["2018-12-09", 0.672], ["2018-12-09", 0.674], ["2018-12-09", 0.644], ["2018-12-10", 0.638], ["2018-12-10", 0.638], ["2018-12-12", 0.629], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1611/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Eurovision Song Contest is held each year to bring the nations of Europe together, in a spirit of comradely rivalry, celebrating the relative harmony of these past seventy years, smiling to each other and towards the future, and to showcase some of the most insane performances ever devised by human minds.
The defin... | true | 2019-05-17 | Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-24 | 2018-12-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-08", 0.56], ["2018-12-08", 0.56], ["2018-12-08", 0.53], ["2018-12-08", 0.534], ["2018-12-09", 0.547], ["2018-12-09", 0.554], ["2018-12-09", 0.584], ["2018-12-10", 0.584], ["2018-12-10", 0.578], ["2018-12-11", 0.585], ["2018-12-11", 0.585], ["2018-12-12", 0.569], ["2018-12-13", 0.569], ["2018-12-14", 0.545], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1612/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | US and China has gotten into a trade was during the Trump presidency. This trade war started with the US introducing 10% tariffs, and a threat of 25% tariffs planned to go in effect the 1st of January 2019.
The 25% in tariffs were delayed on the 1st of December 2018 after the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi where a te... | true | 2019-02-24 | Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-04 | 2018-12-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-06", 0.65], ["2018-12-06", 0.713], ["2018-12-06", 0.692], ["2018-12-06", 0.692], ["2018-12-07", 0.654], ["2018-12-07", 0.607], ["2018-12-07", 0.607], ["2018-12-07", 0.6], ["2018-12-08", 0.603], ["2018-12-08", 0.598], ["2018-12-08", 0.598], ["2018-12-08", 0.598], ["2018-12-08", 0.572], ["2018-12-09", 0.572], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1613/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Facebook has had mixed news over the past year.
On the plus side, it's still the 3rd most visited site globally, and its founder Mark Zuckerberg spent some of this year as the 3rd richest person on the planet. On the other hand, it announced its first-ever decrease in monthly active users, which caused its stock to plu... | true | 2019-01-18 | Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-05 | 2018-12-05 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-08", 0.85], ["2018-12-08", 0.575], ["2018-12-08", 0.473], ["2018-12-08", 0.426], ["2018-12-08", 0.443], ["2018-12-09", 0.467], ["2018-12-09", 0.467], ["2018-12-09", 0.473], ["2018-12-09", 0.475], ["2018-12-09", 0.475], ["2018-12-09", 0.465], ["2018-12-09", 0.461], ["2018-12-10", 0.461], ["2018-12-10", 0.473]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1614/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Social Sciences | In September this year, it looked as if America's first sex doll brothel was about to cut the red ribbon and receive its first customers. However, a wave of media attention brought the issue to the attention of the Houston City Council, who hurriedly passed an ordinance that apparently banned the use, but not sale, of ... | true | 2019-03-31 | Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-29 | 2018-12-06 | ["https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/may-team\u2026)"] | binary | [["2018-12-09", 0.33], ["2018-12-09", 0.373], ["2018-12-09", 0.373], ["2018-12-09", 0.443], ["2018-12-09", 0.37], ["2018-12-10", 0.37], ["2018-12-10", 0.355], ["2018-12-10", 0.355], ["2018-12-10", 0.351], ["2018-12-10", 0.328], ["2018-12-11", 0.322], ["2018-12-11", 0.322], ["2018-12-12", 0.318], ["2018-12-13", 0.297], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1615/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, has consistently ruled out the possibility of another referendum on Brexit before the UK leaves the EU on the 29th of March 2019. However, with the process now mired in difficulty and with a Parliamentary vote on May's proposed deal with the EU now only days away -... | true | 2019-01-15 | Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-09", 0.725], ["2018-12-09", 0.725], ["2018-12-09", 0.787], ["2018-12-09", 0.802], ["2018-12-09", 0.84], ["2018-12-09", 0.833], ["2018-12-09", 0.821], ["2018-12-09", 0.792], ["2018-12-09", 0.806], ["2018-12-09", 0.8], ["2018-12-09", 0.804], ["2018-12-09", 0.813], ["2018-12-09", 0.813], ["2018-12-09", 0.812], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1616/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Queen Elizabeth II, 92, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 66 yea... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-01 | 2018-12-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-09", 0.35], ["2018-12-10", 0.249], ["2018-12-11", 0.223], ["2018-12-13", 0.216], ["2018-12-14", 0.215], ["2018-12-17", 0.213], ["2018-12-20", 0.212], ["2018-12-21", 0.208], ["2018-12-26", 0.204], ["2018-12-29", 0.207], ["2018-12-30", 0.206], ["2019-01-01", 0.2], ["2019-01-03", 0.209], ["2019-01-04", 0.208], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1617/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Hillary Rodham Clinton, former First Lady of the United States and former Secretary of State, was a candidate for President of the United States in 2008 and 2016.
In 2008, she failed to win the Democratic Party's nomination and subsequently endorsed then-Senator Barack Obama, who went on to win the Presidency. In 2016,... | true | 2020-02-04 | Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-11", 0.35], ["2018-12-11", 0.417], ["2018-12-11", 0.325], ["2018-12-11", 0.325], ["2018-12-11", 0.333], ["2018-12-11", 0.333], ["2018-12-11", 0.306], ["2018-12-11", 0.306], ["2018-12-11", 0.29], ["2018-12-11", 0.303], ["2018-12-11", 0.307], ["2018-12-11", 0.307], ["2018-12-12", 0.311], ["2018-12-12", 0.307],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1623/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test.
The official tally of verified nuclear detona... | true | 2018-12-31 | Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2018-12-09 | ["https://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year&u=638132815600601857", "https://www.heritage.org/index/country/cuba", "https://www.heritage.org/index/country/cuba"] | binary | [["2018-12-12", 0.8], ["2018-12-21", 0.812], ["2018-12-26", 0.814], ["2019-01-01", 0.816], ["2019-01-07", 0.812], ["2019-01-15", 0.814], ["2019-01-25", 0.815], ["2019-02-11", 0.815], ["2019-02-17", 0.808], ["2019-03-03", 0.805], ["2019-03-03", 0.805], ["2019-05-09", 0.808], ["2019-05-15", 0.811], ["2019-05-26", 0.814],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1631/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution.
As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the r... | true | 2021-11-25 | Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-10 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-13", 0.2], ["2018-12-13", 0.105], ["2018-12-13", 0.087], ["2018-12-13", 0.09], ["2018-12-13", 0.09], ["2018-12-13", 0.1], ["2018-12-13", 0.133], ["2018-12-13", 0.133], ["2018-12-13", 0.136], ["2018-12-13", 0.136], ["2018-12-13", 0.132], ["2018-12-14", 0.145], ["2018-12-14", 0.158], ["2018-12-14", 0.168], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1639/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The British Pound is currently trading at approximately $1.256 as of December 10 2018. Will it trade at equal to or less than $1.000 at any time before January 1, 2020?
Current and historical rates are available from XE Currency Data. | true | 2019-01-01 | British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-07-23 | 2018-12-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-15", 0.05], ["2018-12-15", 0.146], ["2018-12-17", 0.151], ["2018-12-18", 0.144], ["2018-12-19", 0.14], ["2018-12-21", 0.144], ["2018-12-22", 0.141], ["2018-12-23", 0.141], ["2018-12-26", 0.146], ["2018-12-27", 0.144], ["2018-12-28", 0.142], ["2018-12-29", 0.145], ["2018-12-31", 0.146], ["2018-12-31", 0.146],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1641/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Media reports in the UK indicate that Prime Minister Theresa May is to face a Conservative and Unionist Party leadership contest.
This question asks: Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 23:00 London time on 29 March 2020, 1 year after Brexit is currently due to be implemented? | true | 2019-06-23 | Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-08 | 2018-12-12 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-16", 0.3], ["2018-12-17", 0.272], ["2018-12-18", 0.241], ["2018-12-19", 0.237], ["2018-12-21", 0.258], ["2018-12-22", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.255], ["2019-01-04", 0.255], ["2019-01-15", 0.272], ["2019-01-18", 0.274], ["2019-01-18", 0.267], ["2019-01-21", 0.28], ["2019-02-14", 0.278], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1643/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The unemployment rate in the United States averaged 5.77% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80% in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50% in May of 1953. According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United ... | true | 2022-01-01 | Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-13 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-16", 0.15], ["2018-12-17", 0.08], ["2018-12-17", 0.22], ["2018-12-17", 0.147], ["2018-12-17", 0.118], ["2018-12-17", 0.144], ["2018-12-17", 0.175], ["2018-12-17", 0.175], ["2018-12-17", 0.188], ["2018-12-17", 0.188], ["2018-12-17", 0.188], ["2018-12-17", 0.212], ["2018-12-17", 0.211], ["2018-12-17", 0.215], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1649/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Jeremy Corbyn is currently the Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition in the United Kingdom, and has occupied these offices since 2015.
The current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is Theresa May, Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, who has occupied these offices sin... | true | 2019-01-15 | Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-21 | 2018-12-13 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-16", 0.8], ["2018-12-16", 0.6], ["2018-12-16", 0.6], ["2018-12-16", 0.6], ["2018-12-16", 0.575], ["2018-12-16", 0.536], ["2018-12-16", 0.536], ["2018-12-16", 0.554], ["2018-12-17", 0.562], ["2018-12-17", 0.562], ["2018-12-17", 0.553], ["2018-12-17", 0.546], ["2018-12-17", 0.536], ["2018-12-17", 0.519], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1652/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | A possible partial government shutdown is less than ten days away with President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats locked in a dispute over border security and no resolution in sight.
Funding expires for a number of key government agencies on December 21 at midnight, and while there is still time to avert a shut... | true | 2018-12-20 | Will the Federal Government of the United States partially shut down (temporarily) by 22 December 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-06-06 | 2018-12-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-05-12", 0.42], ["2019-05-12", 0.42], ["2019-05-12", 0.303], ["2019-05-12", 0.303], ["2019-05-12", 0.293], ["2019-05-12", 0.356], ["2019-05-12", 0.356], ["2019-05-12", 0.347], ["2019-05-13", 0.344], ["2019-05-13", 0.356], ["2019-05-13", 0.348], ["2019-05-14", 0.329], ["2019-05-14", 0.329], ["2019-05-14", 0.336],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1664/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 19 December 2018, Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was convicted of perverting the course of justice. Given the serious nature of this criminal offence, it is widely expected that she will either resign (in the usual manner; by taking an office of profit under the Crown), be recalled by her constituents, or be removed from ... | true | 2019-07-11 | Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2018-12-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-22", 0.5], ["2018-12-23", 0.369], ["2018-12-24", 0.48], ["2018-12-24", 0.487], ["2018-12-26", 0.481], ["2018-12-27", 0.489], ["2018-12-27", 0.459], ["2018-12-29", 0.454], ["2018-12-29", 0.453], ["2018-12-30", 0.454], ["2018-12-30", 0.466], ["2018-12-31", 0.473], ["2018-12-31", 0.476], ["2019-01-01", 0.462], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1665/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX Founder and CEO Elon Musk believes that a fully and rapidly reusable rocket is the pivotal breakthrough needed to substantially reduce the cost of space access.
SpaceX has had some significant successes in pursuit of this goal, but as of December 2018 has not yet demonstrated that it is possible to launch a payl... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-01 | 2018-12-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-22", 0.5], ["2018-12-23", 0.387], ["2018-12-23", 0.352], ["2018-12-23", 0.301], ["2018-12-23", 0.295], ["2018-12-23", 0.347], ["2018-12-23", 0.351], ["2018-12-24", 0.346], ["2018-12-24", 0.352], ["2018-12-24", 0.352], ["2018-12-24", 0.358], ["2018-12-25", 0.355], ["2018-12-26", 0.342], ["2018-12-26", 0.327],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1666/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | There have been a number of North Korean missile tests. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures
As of 30 November 2017, North Korea has carried out 117 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test... | true | 2019-03-01 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-24 | 2018-12-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-24", 0.4], ["2018-12-24", 0.517], ["2018-12-24", 0.517], ["2018-12-24", 0.5], ["2018-12-24", 0.475], ["2018-12-24", 0.475], ["2018-12-24", 0.41], ["2018-12-24", 0.41], ["2018-12-24", 0.358], ["2018-12-24", 0.412], ["2018-12-24", 0.412], ["2018-12-24", 0.394], ["2018-12-24", 0.384], ["2018-12-24", 0.384], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1668/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Doomsday Clock is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, the clock represents an analogy for the threat of global nuclear war. Since 2007, it has also reflected climate chan... | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-11 | 2018-12-21 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Ultraviolet_Optical_Infrared_Surveyor", "https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2022/nasa-s-webb-delivers-deepest-infrared-image-of-universe-yet"] | binary | [["2019-01-02", 0.95], ["2019-01-10", 0.888], ["2019-01-17", 0.889], ["2019-01-26", 0.885], ["2019-02-17", 0.885], ["2019-03-14", 0.886], ["2019-04-08", 0.886], ["2019-04-13", 0.883], ["2019-04-30", 0.883], ["2019-05-28", 0.883], ["2019-06-19", 0.883], ["2019-08-15", 0.883], ["2019-08-23", 0.884], ["2019-08-28", 0.885]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1669/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST or "Webb") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. ... | true | 2021-12-24 | If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-30 | 2018-12-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-24", 0.51], ["2018-12-25", 0.283], ["2018-12-25", 0.287], ["2018-12-25", 0.305], ["2018-12-25", 0.303], ["2018-12-25", 0.295], ["2018-12-26", 0.292], ["2018-12-26", 0.292], ["2018-12-26", 0.345], ["2018-12-27", 0.348], ["2018-12-27", 0.344], ["2018-12-27", 0.353], ["2018-12-27", 0.356], ["2018-12-27", 0.339]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1670/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of the close of trading on 21 December 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sat at 22,445.37.
The DJIA is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industria... | true | 2019-02-01 | Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-20 | 2018-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-25", 0.3], ["2018-12-25", 0.21], ["2018-12-25", 0.244], ["2018-12-25", 0.236], ["2018-12-25", 0.21], ["2018-12-25", 0.199], ["2018-12-25", 0.2], ["2018-12-25", 0.215], ["2018-12-26", 0.228], ["2018-12-26", 0.233], ["2018-12-26", 0.233], ["2018-12-27", 0.224], ["2018-12-27", 0.224], ["2018-12-27", 0.224], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1671/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics (particularly the panic of 1907) led to the desire for central control of the monetary ... | true | 2019-03-01 | Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-01 | 2018-12-23 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-26", 0.375], ["2018-12-26", 0.35], ["2018-12-26", 0.35], ["2018-12-26", 0.325], ["2018-12-26", 0.346], ["2018-12-26", 0.305], ["2018-12-26", 0.305], ["2018-12-26", 0.305], ["2018-12-26", 0.304], ["2018-12-26", 0.291], ["2018-12-26", 0.283], ["2018-12-26", 0.283], ["2018-12-26", 0.312], ["2018-12-26", 0.316],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1672/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The last terrorist attack in the United States to claim the lives of more than 25 victims took place on June 12 2016 when Omar Mateen, a 29-year-old security guard, killed 49 people and wounded 53 others in a terrorist attack inside Pulse, a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, United States. Orlando Police Department (O... | true | 2019-02-01 | Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-05 | 2018-12-23 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-10", 0.94], ["2019-01-11", 0.94], ["2019-01-11", 0.847], ["2019-01-11", 0.81], ["2019-01-11", 0.81], ["2019-01-11", 0.807], ["2019-01-11", 0.833], ["2019-01-11", 0.842], ["2019-01-11", 0.849], ["2019-01-11", 0.853], ["2019-01-11", 0.85], ["2019-01-11", 0.846], ["2019-01-11", 0.863], ["2019-01-11", 0.876], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1673/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX is going full steam ahead with Big Falcon Rocket (BFR).
Musk thinks that the booster part (currently called "Super Heavy") will be the easier part. Therefore, SpaceX is currently focusing on the upper stage (currently called "Starship" and before that Big Falcon Spaceship or BFS).
For those losing track of Musk'... | true | 2019-02-14 | Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-03 | 2018-12-27 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-16", 0.67], ["2019-01-16", 0.67], ["2019-01-16", 0.635], ["2019-01-16", 0.67], ["2019-01-16", 0.71], ["2019-01-16", 0.71], ["2019-01-16", 0.73], ["2019-01-16", 0.727], ["2019-01-16", 0.727], ["2019-01-16", 0.739], ["2019-01-16", 0.739], ["2019-01-16", 0.706], ["2019-01-16", 0.706], ["2019-01-16", 0.683], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1682/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX is going full steam ahead with Big Falcon Rocket (BFR).
Musk thinks that the booster part (currently called "Super Heavy") will be the easier part. Therefore, SpaceX is currently focusing on the upper stage (currently called "Starship" and before that "Big Falcon Spaceship" or "BFS").
For those losing track of M... | true | 2019-02-28 | Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-12-27 | ["https://www.fai.org/documents"] | binary | [["2019-01-02", 0.43], ["2019-01-02", 0.561], ["2019-01-03", 0.531], ["2019-01-04", 0.532], ["2019-01-05", 0.532], ["2019-01-05", 0.538], ["2019-01-07", 0.523], ["2019-01-08", 0.505], ["2019-01-10", 0.503], ["2019-01-11", 0.497], ["2019-02-02", 0.497], ["2019-02-03", 0.49], ["2019-02-14", 0.49], ["2019-02-15", 0.489], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1683/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.
So how does one define that demarcation?
Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is s... | true | 2020-06-27 | Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-03-01 | 2018-12-27 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-29", 0.945], ["2018-12-30", 0.956], ["2018-12-30", 0.957], ["2018-12-30", 0.921], ["2018-12-30", 0.952], ["2018-12-30", 0.951], ["2018-12-30", 0.956], ["2018-12-30", 0.958], ["2018-12-31", 0.959], ["2018-12-31", 0.959], ["2018-12-31", 0.951], ["2018-12-31", 0.947], ["2018-12-31", 0.949], ["2018-12-31", 0.952... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1684/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Mark Zuckerberg is the CEO, Chairman and co-founder of Facebook, Inc, which has made him one of the richest people in the world.
As alluded to in the text of another question, parts of 2018 have been rocky for Facebook.
CEOs can willingly or unwillingly leave their positions for all kinds of reasons, including poor mar... | true | 2019-01-31 | Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-02-06 | 2018-12-28 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-01", 0.08], ["2019-01-02", 0.133], ["2019-01-03", 0.175], ["2019-01-04", 0.18], ["2019-01-05", 0.19], ["2019-01-06", 0.199], ["2019-01-08", 0.199], ["2019-01-15", 0.201], ["2019-01-15", 0.2], ["2019-01-18", 0.199], ["2019-01-19", 0.199], ["2019-01-20", 0.199], ["2019-01-22", 0.214], ["2019-01-23", 0.216], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1685/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same things. To impeach is to bring charges against a high-office holder.
The House of Representatives can start the impeachment process with simple majority vote to bring charges against the president. In the impeachment trials The House of Representatives... | true | 2020-02-05 | If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-01 | 2018-12-29 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-01", 0.1], ["2019-01-03", 0.168], ["2019-01-05", 0.185], ["2019-01-08", 0.189], ["2019-01-14", 0.191], ["2019-01-18", 0.186], ["2019-01-21", 0.186], ["2019-01-25", 0.184], ["2019-02-03", 0.185], ["2019-02-12", 0.183], ["2019-02-14", 0.182], ["2019-02-17", 0.184], ["2019-02-27", 0.181], ["2019-03-03", 0.179],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1688/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Republic of Belarus is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of ... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-23 | 2018-12-30 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-16", 0.8], ["2019-01-18", 0.805], ["2019-01-20", 0.802], ["2019-01-22", 0.787], ["2019-01-24", 0.787], ["2019-01-26", 0.755], ["2019-01-29", 0.755], ["2019-02-03", 0.755], ["2019-02-04", 0.747], ["2019-02-12", 0.753], ["2019-02-14", 0.758], ["2019-02-15", 0.76], ["2019-02-19", 0.76], ["2019-02-21", 0.758], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1689/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Donald J. Trump is the president of the US as of today. A closed question on whether Trump is president on Feb 2019 will likely resolve positively, but will Trump keep his presidency for the end of his mandate? For this question, we will extend things even further, and ask whether he will complete a hypothetical second... | true | 2020-03-10 | Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-01 | 2018-12-30 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-01", 0.99], ["2019-01-02", 0.922], ["2019-01-03", 0.905], ["2019-01-04", 0.909], ["2019-01-04", 0.912], ["2019-01-05", 0.911], ["2019-01-06", 0.913], ["2019-01-07", 0.914], ["2019-01-08", 0.907], ["2019-01-09", 0.909], ["2019-01-10", 0.909], ["2019-01-11", 0.909], ["2019-01-18", 0.904], ["2019-01-21", 0.907]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1690/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kim Jong-un, born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have be... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-20 | 2018-12-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-03", 0.5], ["2019-01-03", 0.383], ["2019-01-03", 0.383], ["2019-01-03", 0.488], ["2019-01-03", 0.488], ["2019-01-03", 0.449], ["2019-01-04", 0.474], ["2019-01-04", 0.474], ["2019-01-04", 0.466], ["2019-01-04", 0.469], ["2019-01-04", 0.487], ["2019-01-05", 0.505], ["2019-01-05", 0.524], ["2019-01-05", 0.528],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1698/ | The Student Starcraft AI Tournament (SSCAIT) is a Starcraft bot competition held yearly since 2011. Together with AIIDE and CIG it is one of the three big AI tournaments for Starcraft 1. This year's tournament has started and you can watch it live here.
The favorite to win is Samsung's SAIDA bot, which got 1st place at... | Science & Tech | Current standings are here. SSCAIT has a Student division to award the best performing bot created by a student, and an open Mixed division.
We ask: Will SAIDA win the Mixed division of SSCAIT 2018? | true | 2019-01-20 | Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-08-19 | 2018-12-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-02", 0.09], ["2019-01-05", 0.169], ["2019-01-07", 0.186], ["2019-01-10", 0.181], ["2019-01-12", 0.164], ["2019-01-16", 0.165], ["2019-01-18", 0.166], ["2019-01-21", 0.165], ["2019-01-25", 0.163], ["2019-01-26", 0.166], ["2019-01-29", 0.162], ["2019-02-02", 0.161], ["2019-02-03", 0.159], ["2019-02-07", 0.159]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1699/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 31 December 2018, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) announced that she had formed an Exploratory Committee that allows her to start raising money for a potential 2020 run for the Presidency.
Will she be the 2020 Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party?
This question resolves positively if the ... | true | 2020-03-05 | Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-01 | 2019-01-01 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-03", 0.2], ["2019-01-04", 0.25], ["2019-01-04", 0.193], ["2019-01-04", 0.18], ["2019-01-04", 0.21], ["2019-01-04", 0.253], ["2019-01-04", 0.275], ["2019-01-04", 0.275], ["2019-01-04", 0.291], ["2019-01-05", 0.295], ["2019-01-05", 0.296], ["2019-01-05", 0.319], ["2019-01-05", 0.319], ["2019-01-05", 0.319], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1700/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The identity of the author of the anonymous NYT op-ed published on Sept. 5, 2018, criticizing the Trump administration, is still unknown. Despite much speculation, all efforts at figuring out who wrote it have not been successful in 2018. The question is:
Will the identity of the author be revealed in 2019?
Resolution ... | true | 2019-08-01 | Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2019-01-01 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-08", 0.7], ["2019-01-09", 0.7], ["2019-01-09", 0.55], ["2019-01-09", 0.567], ["2019-01-09", 0.567], ["2019-01-09", 0.578], ["2019-01-09", 0.578], ["2019-01-09", 0.565], ["2019-01-09", 0.577], ["2019-01-09", 0.577], ["2019-01-09", 0.593], ["2019-01-09", 0.576], ["2019-01-09", 0.576], ["2019-01-09", 0.587], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1701/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | According to Wikipedia on Boeing CST-100 Starliner:
On September 16, 2014, NASA selected the CST-100, along with SpaceX's Dragon V2, for the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) program, with an award of $4.2 billion. As of October 2018, the spacecraft is expected to conduct an automated test mission to t... | true | 2019-03-01 | Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-01-01 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-03", 0.45], ["2019-01-04", 0.442], ["2019-01-04", 0.428], ["2019-01-04", 0.515], ["2019-01-04", 0.515], ["2019-01-05", 0.566], ["2019-01-05", 0.55], ["2019-01-05", 0.562], ["2019-01-05", 0.569], ["2019-01-06", 0.569], ["2019-01-06", 0.582], ["2019-01-06", 0.578], ["2019-01-07", 0.577], ["2019-01-07", 0.571],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1702/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The Standard & Poor's 500, often abbreviated as the S&P 500, or just the S&P is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 index components and their weightings are determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It differ... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-30 | 2019-01-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-04", 0.25], ["2019-01-05", 0.127], ["2019-01-05", 0.124], ["2019-01-05", 0.124], ["2019-01-05", 0.12], ["2019-01-05", 0.118], ["2019-01-06", 0.124], ["2019-01-06", 0.121], ["2019-01-07", 0.128], ["2019-01-07", 0.126], ["2019-01-08", 0.134], ["2019-01-08", 0.145], ["2019-01-08", 0.145], ["2019-01-08", 0.143],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1704/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was a scheduled international passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airlines that disappeared on 8 March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia, to its destination, Beijing Capital International Airport in China. The disappearance of Flight 370 is considered one... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-29 | 2019-01-03 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-04", 0.7], ["2019-01-05", 0.7], ["2019-01-05", 0.53], ["2019-01-05", 0.437], ["2019-01-05", 0.478], ["2019-01-05", 0.502], ["2019-01-05", 0.493], ["2019-01-05", 0.493], ["2019-01-05", 0.476], ["2019-01-05", 0.45], ["2019-01-05", 0.428], ["2019-01-05", 0.412], ["2019-01-05", 0.391], ["2019-01-05", 0.391], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1866/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 London time, following a referendum held in June 2016 in which 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU, and 48.11% voted to remain.
As the closeness of the result suggests, this has been a very controversial affair within the UK. It has also... | true | 2019-01-17 | Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-02-03 | 2019-01-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-09", 0.375], ["2019-01-09", 0.336], ["2019-01-09", 0.339], ["2019-01-09", 0.368], ["2019-01-10", 0.37], ["2019-01-11", 0.36], ["2019-01-11", 0.368], ["2019-01-12", 0.361], ["2019-01-13", 0.361], ["2019-01-15", 0.343], ["2019-01-16", 0.338], ["2019-01-18", 0.338], ["2019-01-21", 0.362], ["2019-01-21", 0.362],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2347/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Willard Mitt Romney (born March 12, 1947) is an American politician and businessman who is the junior United States Senator from Utah. He previously served as the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007 and was the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 election.
In January 2... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-07-01 | 2019-01-06 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-07", 0.8], ["2019-01-08", 0.513], ["2019-01-08", 0.511], ["2019-01-09", 0.501], ["2019-01-09", 0.494], ["2019-01-10", 0.505], ["2019-01-11", 0.517], ["2019-01-11", 0.516], ["2019-01-12", 0.516], ["2019-01-16", 0.515], ["2019-01-17", 0.513], ["2019-01-23", 0.513], ["2019-01-24", 0.506], ["2019-01-25", 0.507],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2509/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a suspect in multiple cases of official corruption, and Israeli police have recommended his indictment. As in the past, the ultimate decision falls to a partisan Attorney General appointed by Netanyahu himself, and he remains fairly popular among Israel's public.
Will Benjam... | true | 2019-06-30 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-25 | 2019-01-06 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-09", 0.66], ["2019-01-09", 0.66], ["2019-01-09", 0.58], ["2019-01-09", 0.58], ["2019-01-10", 0.515], ["2019-01-10", 0.515], ["2019-01-10", 0.512], ["2019-01-10", 0.522], ["2019-01-10", 0.522], ["2019-01-10", 0.526], ["2019-01-10", 0.544], ["2019-01-10", 0.544], ["2019-01-10", 0.544], ["2019-01-10", 0.593], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2510/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The New York Times reports that former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is in the final stages of deciding whether to run for President.
Will he run for President in the 2020 election cycle?
Resolves positively if Joe Biden announces, before January 1 2020, that he is running for the office of President of the United... | true | 2019-01-16 | Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-04-24 | 2019-01-07 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-09", 0.33], ["2019-01-21", 0.266], ["2019-02-04", 0.275], ["2019-02-14", 0.285], ["2019-02-26", 0.281], ["2019-03-06", 0.37], ["2019-03-16", 0.373], ["2019-03-31", 0.372], ["2019-04-22", 0.374], ["2019-05-05", 0.374], ["2019-05-17", 0.374], ["2019-05-26", 0.367], ["2019-06-03", 0.362], ["2019-07-01", 0.362],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2511/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron, born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016.
In the first round of Presidential Elections in 2017, Macron won 8,656,... | true | 2022-04-23 | Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2019-01-08 | ["https://www-news.iaea.org/Default.aspx", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_power_accidents_by_country"] | binary | [["2019-01-10", 0.11], ["2019-01-14", 0.142], ["2019-01-18", 0.136], ["2019-01-21", 0.14], ["2019-01-25", 0.134], ["2019-02-10", 0.134], ["2019-02-12", 0.139], ["2019-02-22", 0.147], ["2019-03-05", 0.147], ["2019-03-21", 0.15], ["2019-03-28", 0.155], ["2019-03-31", 0.156], ["2019-04-13", 0.156], ["2019-04-26", 0.154], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2512/ | The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale tha... | Environment & Energy | This question will resolve as Yes if an event or series of events that begins between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2022 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before January 1, 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for ex... | true | 2021-01-01 | Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-21 | 2019-01-09 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-11", 0.66], ["2019-01-11", 0.66], ["2019-01-11", 0.65], ["2019-01-12", 0.633], ["2019-01-12", 0.633], ["2019-01-12", 0.722], ["2019-01-12", 0.693], ["2019-01-12", 0.68], ["2019-01-12", 0.701], ["2019-01-12", 0.68], ["2019-01-12", 0.68], ["2019-01-12", 0.643], ["2019-01-12", 0.643], ["2019-01-12", 0.647], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2520/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.
Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his r... | true | 2019-01-25 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-21 | 2019-01-09 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-11", 0.6], ["2019-01-11", 0.45], ["2019-01-11", 0.525], ["2019-01-12", 0.573], ["2019-01-12", 0.598], ["2019-01-12", 0.61], ["2019-01-12", 0.673], ["2019-01-12", 0.69], ["2019-01-12", 0.677], ["2019-01-12", 0.677], ["2019-01-12", 0.673], ["2019-01-12", 0.642], ["2019-01-12", 0.618], ["2019-01-12", 0.618], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2521/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.
Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his r... | true | 2019-01-25 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-12 | 2019-01-09 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-12", 0.65], ["2019-01-12", 0.63], ["2019-01-12", 0.69], ["2019-01-12", 0.662], ["2019-01-12", 0.662], ["2019-01-12", 0.66], ["2019-01-12", 0.66], ["2019-01-12", 0.66], ["2019-01-12", 0.645], ["2019-01-12", 0.634], ["2019-01-12", 0.634], ["2019-01-12", 0.626], ["2019-01-12", 0.62], ["2019-01-12", 0.618], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2522/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.
Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his r... | true | 2019-01-25 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-09-18 | 2019-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-15", 0.48], ["2019-01-15", 0.44], ["2019-01-15", 0.44], ["2019-01-15", 0.453], ["2019-01-15", 0.465], ["2019-01-15", 0.452], ["2019-01-15", 0.452], ["2019-01-15", 0.437], ["2019-01-15", 0.428], ["2019-01-15", 0.42], ["2019-01-16", 0.415], ["2019-01-16", 0.415], ["2019-01-18", 0.412], ["2019-01-18", 0.412], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2535/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | NeurIPS is widely regarded as the leading conference in machine learning. Held every year, it attracts large numbers of attendees, causing tickets to sell out within twelve minutes last year. Around the world, ML researchers furiously scramble to prepare papers in time to submit, as NeurIPS is also regarded as the most... | true | 2019-05-18 | Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2019-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-15", 0.75], ["2019-01-15", 0.492], ["2019-01-16", 0.521], ["2019-01-17", 0.482], ["2019-01-18", 0.451], ["2019-01-18", 0.445], ["2019-01-20", 0.438], ["2019-01-20", 0.438], ["2019-01-21", 0.461], ["2019-01-22", 0.462], ["2019-01-27", 0.463], ["2019-01-31", 0.463], ["2019-02-01", 0.453], ["2019-02-01", 0.452]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2537/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | 2019 is a pivotal year for the UK, as it is currently scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March. However, the process has become mired in difficulty and embattled Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May looks set to lose a key vote on her Brexit deal within days.
UK opposition Parliament members have been told to prepare f... | true | 2019-05-31 | Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-01 | 2019-01-14 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-18", 0.375], ["2019-01-18", 0.35], ["2019-01-18", 0.35], ["2019-01-18", 0.433], ["2019-01-18", 0.425], ["2019-01-18", 0.392], ["2019-01-18", 0.46], ["2019-01-18", 0.451], ["2019-01-18", 0.451], ["2019-01-18", 0.468], ["2019-01-18", 0.496], ["2019-01-18", 0.518], ["2019-01-18", 0.518], ["2019-01-18", 0.538], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2565/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) are french protesters of the Macron government policies.
They notably organised a series of grassroots protests all over France, every weekend for the last 9 weeks. The first one, on Saturday November 2018, gathered more than 285,000 people (i.e. ~0.4% of the population). Participation ... | true | 2019-01-31 | Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline? | metaculus | 1 |
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