date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | extracted_urls stringlengths 2 7.19k | question_type stringclasses 3
values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-01-09 | 2023-01-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-01", 0.10849960829833676], ["2023-01-01", 0.14000000000000004], ["2023-01-01", 0.34553834461601185], ["2023-01-01", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-01-01", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-01-01", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-01-01", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-01-01", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-01-01", 0.399999... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-this-market-be-above-69-when-i | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will this market be above 69% when it closes? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2023-01-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-01", 0.058059911644240285], ["2023-01-01", 0.09], ["2023-01-01", 0.10020443678262157], ["2023-01-01", 0.11682296950091699], ["2023-01-01", 0.13162650394505646], ["2023-01-01", 0.23584905660377364], ["2023-01-01", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-01-02", 0.050000000000000086], ["2023-01-02", 0.050000000000000086],... | https://manifold.markets/TexanElite/will-there-be-a-coupcoup-attempt-in-629ecf8fb276 | Resolves YES if there is a coup or a coup attempt in Brazil before December 31st, 2023 and resolves NO otherwise. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Brazil by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-01 | 2023-01-02 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/", "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/", "https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-05", 0.35697060659699253], ["2023-02-25", 0.26408155666261734], ["2023-03-11", 0.012801419512495624], ["2023-03-11", 0.08665594326858207], ["2023-03-12", 0.0166683778397644], ["2023-03-13", 0.023869298866340143], ["2023-03-13", 0.023869298866340143], ["2023-03-16", 0.00749... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-usdcs-market-cap-exceed-usdts-1296a0fc8cbf | Token market cap: https://coinmarketcap.com/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will USDC's market cap exceed USDT's market cap by March 31st 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-31 | 2023-01-02 | ["https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.3377740492847217], ["2023-01-02", 0.40000000000000013], ["2023-01-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-03", 0.13885626839522536], ["2023-01-03", 0.14704289637318127], ["2023-01-03", 0.15597272745676463], ["2023-01-03", 0.16573507419911387], ["2023-01-03", 0.17643217985554527], ["2023-01-03", 0.18818127... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-teslas-marketcap-be-above-400b-ea2ea5482e9d | https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/ | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will Tesla's marketcap be above $400B on January 31st 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-31 | 2023-01-02 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/", "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum", "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.2808988764044944], ["2023-01-02", 0.3358770824882275], ["2023-01-02", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-01-06", 0.36682246131227675], ["2023-01-07", 0.414979412353048], ["2023-01-09", 0.45117541169096337], ["2023-01-09", 0.6462421655233069], ["2023-01-11", 0.6844956596834716], ["2023-01-12", 0.7500979102599... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ethereums-price-be-above-1300-5269f0ebce0b | Resolves on January 31st at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/ https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Ethereum's price be above $1300 on January 31st? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-09 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-02", 0.6890822368668973], ["2023-01-02", 0.7232078585090699], ["2023-01-02", 0.74293059125964], ["2023-01-02", 0.8008796367885315], ["2023-01-03", 0.8141325965084277], ["2023-01-03", 0.8141325965084284], ["2023-01-03", 0.8217806929655348], ["2023-01-03", 0.8226827399915264... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-georgia-bulldogs-beat-the | Georgia is favored by 13.5 points. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-10 | Will the Georgia Bulldogs beat the TCU Horned Frogs in the national championship game at SoFi stadium on Jan 9? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-02 | 2023-01-02 | ["https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-01-10", 0.4390285626794529], ["2023-01-10", 0.6282527881040894], ["2023-01-11", 0.6751659848200919], ["2023-02-02", 0.004924262258316069], ["2023-02-02", 0.018434433598410592], ["2023-02-02", 0.03343414117103539]] | https://manifold.markets/yunglady/will-szas-kill-bill-hit-no-1-billbo | Resolution as YES, if the Songs peak position is 1 on 01.02.23. The charts are currently flooded with bloody Christmas songs help. https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ Close date updated to 2023-02-03 12:59 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-02 | Will SZA‘s 'Kill Bill' Hit No. 1 Billboard Charts by the end of january 2023 | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-05 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.5100000000000001], ["2023-01-02", 0.5151112298193223], ["2023-01-02", 0.5499999999999999], ["2023-01-02", 0.5688519754040908], ["2023-01-02", 0.59], ["2023-01-02", 0.6088723101133063], ["2023-01-03", 0.5242456533612561], ["2023-01-03", 0.5242456533612561], ["2023-01-03", 0.5242456533612561], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-elon-musk-create-a-twitter-pol | Elon's last poll: Resolution criteria are simple. If before this market closes, Elon creates a twitter poll, or any Otherwise, This will resolve NO. If there is a new poll-like function added to twitter which creates any ambiguity, I will decide myself or consider a PROB resolution. official close time is 09/01/2023 6... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-05 | Will Elon Musk create a Twitter poll in the next 7 days (before market close) | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-15 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-03", 0.7191011235955055], ["2023-01-20", 0.7517490432761006], ["2023-01-20", 0.7792486818701924], ["2023-02-15", 0.9944990521621483]] | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-bitcoin-total-hashrate-reach-3-df73d88f7125 | Mining hashrate is a key security metric of Bitcoin network. The more hashing (computing) power in the network, the greater its security and its overall resistance to attack. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-04 | Will Bitcoin total hashrate reach 300 EH/s in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-09 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-02", 0.6436143266939333], ["2023-01-03", 0.007390107131263506], ["2023-01-03", 0.009773319195598857], ["2023-01-03", 0.010241670723253904], ["2023-01-03", 0.01799181387210322], ["2023-01-03", 0.03116008132861098], ["2023-01-03", 0.03629489667186441], ["2023-01-03", 0.04775... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-423k | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will Vaush's main channel reach 423k subs by Jan 15th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-15 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.24828682093554474], ["2023-01-02", 0.4670461707527616], ["2023-01-02", 0.48218344014396847], ["2023-01-02", 0.49000000000000005], ["2023-01-02", 0.5295447127420344], ["2023-01-02", 0.67], ["2023-01-02", 0.675703127341688], ["2023-01-02", 0.7581625903018909], ["2023-01-03", 0.4425757313688295], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-425k | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-15 | Will Vaush's main channel reach 425k subs by the end of January? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-26 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.31737133361068226], ["2023-01-02", 0.358392335317921], ["2023-01-02", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-01-03", 0.025240727311213157], ["2023-01-03", 0.046539953572477546], ["2023-01-03", 0.049111277181915824], ["2023-01-03", 0.07065310528824535], ["2023-01-03", 0.07999999999999999], ["2023-01-03", 0.079999... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-get-6-mill | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-26 | Will Vaush's main channel get 6 millions views by the end of January? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-04 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.40412371134020614], ["2023-01-02", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-03", 0.18662588982021747], ["2023-01-03", 0.29934781461900145], ["2023-01-03", 0.9866764190478411], ["2023-01-04", 0.27658797616640984], ["2023-01-04", 0.27658797616640984], ["2023-01-04", 0.27658797616640984], ["2023-01-04", 0.36578590... | https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/resolves-to-yes-if-my-most-popular | Jan 2, 12:50am: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-04 | Resolves to YES if my most popular market has 20 or more unique traders at close time | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-28 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.38305358051321525], ["2023-01-02", 0.4023000535916358], ["2023-01-02", 0.4287095574423376], ["2023-01-02", 0.4406811613095957], ["2023-01-02", 0.45904233751464135], ["2023-01-02", 0.46], ["2023-01-02", 0.4828786255595412], ["2023-01-02", 0.5099999999999999], ["2023-01-02", 0.5099999999999999], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/january-2023-will-russia-lose-more-705379454b47 | Will resolve to YES if in January 2023, the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 125,000 troops. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-28 | January 2023: Will Russia lose more than 125,000 troops? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-17 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.40186465198521143], ["2023-01-02", 0.4176311944688423], ["2023-01-02", 0.4900999803960008], ["2023-01-02", 0.509739335743573], ["2023-01-03", 0.46966992870049223], ["2023-01-03", 0.47], ["2023-01-03", 0.48598946698647816], ["2023-01-03", 0.48999999999999994], ["2023-01-03", 0.48999999999999994], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/ai-will-gpt4-have-global-memory | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-17 | AI: Will GPT-4 have global memory? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-02", 0.4956727223110975], ["2023-01-02", 0.6485001635439729], ["2023-01-04", 0.33983650150957995], ["2023-01-04", 0.3726098525175924], ["2023-01-04", 0.40899174882751266], ["2023-01-04", 0.4492158515579344], ["2023-01-04", 0.493421794285429], ["2023-01-04", 0.5415934216126... | https://manifold.markets/anne/will-sneako-be-banned-on-twitter-be | Resolves yes if Sneako is temp OR perma-banned on Twitter before March 1, 2023. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-28 | Will Sneako be banned on Twitter before March 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-09 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.4503917571018664], ["2023-01-02", 0.4503917571018664], ["2023-01-02", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-01-03", 0.4271056234457803], ["2023-01-03", 0.45620620555841196], ["2023-01-03", 0.47], ["2023-01-03", 0.47855392280565345], ["2023-01-03", 0.5303378421538969], ["2023-01-03", 0.55], ["2023-01-03", 0.5779... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-spy-rise-10-or-fall-10-first | SPY is around 382.5 as of the close on 1/1. This contract stays open as long as SPY remains in the range (372.5, 392.5) When SPY exits the range, resolves YES if SPY is >=392.5, NO if SPY is <=372.5. The data source will be yahoo finance 30min candles, not including extended hours: Jan 5, 12:43pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-09 | Will SPY rise to 392.5 or fall to 372.5 first? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-03 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.2295364053172884], ["2023-01-02", 0.24283065147870822], ["2023-01-02", 0.2594676907483511], ["2023-01-02", 0.2899605855237403], ["2023-01-02", 0.33359292339848895], ["2023-01-02", 0.43180865130871754], ["2023-01-02", 0.5153255785196792], ["2023-01-02", 0.5344418052256532], ["2023-01-02", 0.59016393442... | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-sam-bankmanfried-post-on-twitt | Includes tweets and replies with text on the @SBF_FTX account or other accounts widely and clearly him. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-03 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried post on twitter at least once every month in 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-05 | 2023-01-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-02", 0.3822793964545864], ["2023-01-02", 0.4098360655737705], ["2023-01-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-02", 0.48811532268104246], ["2023-01-03", 0.6674819219139849], ["2023-01-03", 0.703680919544452], ["2023-01-05", 0.7008377451324708], ["2023-01-05", 0.7301050311789107], ["2023-01-05", 0.75579779193525... | https://manifold.markets/Arctanno/will-hololive-announce-a-new-genera | For the purposes of this question, an announcement of any new talents, e.g. VSingers like IRyS would suffice for YES. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-05 | Will Hololive announce a new generation of vtubers before March 1, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-13 | 2023-01-06 | ["https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1110147841/"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-06", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-06", 0.7462402194884522], ["2023-01-07", 0.768770661947268], ["2023-01-07", 0.8200000000000001], ["2023-01-07", 0.8359995119707251], ["2023-01-08", 0.9415024055889292], ["2023-01-08", 0.95], ["2023-01-08", 0.9596310866820292], ["2023-01-... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-m3gan-gross-more-than-20-milli | This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1110147841/ Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend, regardless of... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-13 | Will 'M3GAN' gross more than $20 million domestically on its opening weekend? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-17 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-31", 0.7641509433962262], ["2023-03-31", 0.86], ["2023-03-31", 0.8868778280542986], ["2023-03-31", 0.89], ["2023-03-31", 0.9068598919886648], ["2023-04-06", 0.92], ["2023-04-06", 0.9299999999999999], ["2023-04-06", 0.9639223851737826], ["2023-04-17", 0.9460024942786937], [... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-dwarkesh-patel-have-over-10000 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-17 | Will Dwarkesh Patel have over 10000 Youtube subscribers by the end of 2023 | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-11 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.8868778280542986], ["2023-01-06", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-01-06", 0.9098451497090226], ["2023-01-07", 0.93092765705167], ["2023-01-07", 0.9553624115554574], ["2023-01-07", 0.9679358710861148], ["2023-01-07", 0.9679358710861148], ["2023-01-07", 0.9754293690601467], ["2023-01-08", 0.9825188836698208... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-lex-fridman-interview-mr-beast | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-11 | Will Lex Fridman interview Mr. Beast by the end of 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-06", 0.4584772600731301], ["2023-01-11", 0.2849225727684978], ["2023-01-27", 0.1603224113541365], ["2023-01-27", 0.17810879730887094], ["2023-01-27", 0.19879912992218504], ["2023-01-27", 0.22298893398100764], ["2023-01-27", 0.2514045295682836], ["2023-01-31", 0.02598810497... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/what-will-be-the-gbtc-discount-to-n | Resolves N/A if fund dissolves. Resolves NO if the discount is below 50% Jan 6, 4:32pm: Close date updated to 2023-02-02 6:59 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will the GBTC discount to NAV on January 31st be above 50%? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.4708984742889434], ["2023-01-06", 0.6207289771427175], ["2023-01-07", 0.49920439528512256], ["2023-01-07", 0.5300000000000001], ["2023-01-07", 0.560428106894139], ["2023-01-07", 0.5700000000000001], ["2023-01-07", 0.5700000000000001], ["2023-01-07", 0.5700000000000001], ["2023-01-07", 0.58365010519462... | https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-russia-start-a-new-major-offen | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-02 | Will Russia start a new major offensive in Ukraine before May 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-25 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.08365762313987431], ["2023-01-06", 0.1277597164305293], ["2023-01-06", 0.13706712585031303], ["2023-01-06", 0.14836757035224424], ["2023-01-06", 0.15787129175037953], ["2023-01-06", 0.17], ["2023-01-06", 0.17], ["2023-01-06", 0.17], ["2023-01-06", 0.19617972768847447], ["2023-01-06", 0.201377154426023... | https://manifold.markets/nmwood_/will-nmwood-be-in-the-positive-by-e | I am currently down bad 16k. I have 3k to invest. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will nmwood be in the positive by end of February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-13 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.4263301500682129], ["2023-01-06", 0.47066774458824917], ["2023-01-06", 0.4708984742889434], ["2023-01-12", 0.09026060544869488], ["2023-01-12", 0.10439766302112753], ["2023-01-12", 0.11000000000000001], ["2023-01-12", 0.3230201724094056], ["2023-01-13", 0.012738512152747771], ["2023-01-13", 0.01383979... | https://manifold.markets/CubityFirst/will-this-market-have-100-users-at | This uses the "X Users" statistic, not the one under the three little dots. Jan 6, 8:41pm: Jan 6, 8:43pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-13 | Will this market have 100 users at market close? 2023-01-13 | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.07901037315344815], ["2023-01-06", 0.10107920563134558], ["2023-01-06", 0.1179384928585545], ["2023-01-06", 0.12471721086335479], ["2023-01-06", 0.19569987147055054], ["2023-01-06", 0.2595309712979613], ["2023-01-06", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-01-07", 0.007717571392973732], ["2023-01-07", 0.0096880... | https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-any-ballot-after-the-twelfth-i | In the twelfth and thirteenth ballots in the 2023 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives election, Kevin McCarthy finally has a plurality (213 and 214 votes respectively), but not yet the majority needed to become speaker of the house. Will a future ballot see the Republicans become divided enough again ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will any ballot after the twelfth in the 2023 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives election have a Democratic plurality winner? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-14 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.46958571186737613], ["2023-01-06", 0.5778359403495897], ["2023-01-06", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-06", 0.6], ["2023-01-06", 0.620292520643064], ["2023-01-06", 0.6591709316713654], ["2023-01-06", 0.6591709316713654], ["2023-01-06", 0.6591709316713654], ["2023-01-06", 0.6591709316713656], ["2023-01-... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-at-least-50-p | This market resolves to YES if there are at least 50 people in the "users" tab at close, summing both the YES and NO columns. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-14 | Will this market have at least 50 people holding shares at close? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-06", 0.5163890381515316], ["2023-01-10", 0.2606965364472522], ["2023-02-01", 0.23039794589996132], ["2023-02-25", 0.10738824444278681], ["2023-02-25", 0.13000000000000003], ["2023-02-28", 0.1229073036591316], ["2023-03-02", 0.11640903862374133], ["2023-03-10", 0.0908279465... | https://manifold.markets/bvencill/will-carlos-correa-sign-with-the-ne | I will consider this resolved "yes" if Carlos Correa has signed a 1+ year deal with the New York Mets by MLB Opening day on 03/30/23 per [Baseball Reference 2022-23 Free Agency Signings]( | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will Carlos Correa sign with the New York Mets before MLB Opening Day? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-27 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-06", 0.432271306119405], ["2023-01-06", 0.5113762329066396], ["2023-01-06", 0.5149491973505642], ["2023-01-06", 0.5194213958802126], ["2023-01-07", 0.4813373174207908], ["2023-01-07", 0.5109889364244626], ["2023-01-10", 0.5135564970424582], ["2023-01-11", 0.487207979340503... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-twitter-release-inactive-usern | For a long time, Twitter has Elon has said this policy is changing. They first said this on Then on Then on This market resolves to YES if: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-06-01 | Will Twitter release inactive usernames before June? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.5079806246731208], ["2023-01-06", 0.5177985804034978], ["2023-01-06", 0.5710659898477157], ["2023-01-06", 0.6076381543414385], ["2023-01-06", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-01-07", 0.53], ["2023-01-07", 0.56009618838426], ["2023-01-16", 0.5646353940501281], ["2023-02-08", 0.5137124268131122], ["2023-02-0... | https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-there-be-at-least-one-other-in-248f2cafb33c | Other than SBF, Gary Wang or Caroline Ellison. Resolves to YES if criminal charges are brought in the US against anyone for their involvement with FTX or Alameda in relation to the current collapse and fraud case. Feb 22, 7:50pm: Feb 22, 10:12pm: PLEASE READ: Feb 28, 1:34pm: This and related markets are about INDIC... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will there be at least one other indictment in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.3715889797890784], ["2023-01-06", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-06", 0.4314182347114307], ["2023-01-07", 0.41913797418044263], ["2023-01-14", 0.4064827930314315], ["2023-01-23", 0.36490774227143563], ["2023-01-28", 0.2640855089325289], ["2023-01-28", 0.2827392635938171], ["2023-01-29", 0.234172625313... | https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-there-be-at-least-one-other-in | Other than SBF, Gary Wang or Caroline Ellison. Resolves to YES if criminal charges are brought in the US against anyone for their involvement with FTX or Alameda in relation to the current collapse and fraud case. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will there be at least one other indictment in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of January? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-06 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/politics/mccarthy-speaker-fight-friday/index.html"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.4106503110947685], ["2023-01-06", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-01-06", 0.49], ["2023-01-06", 0.5685156823528588], ["2023-01-06", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-06", 0.7630233665056461], ["2023-01-06", 0.7630233665056461], ["2023-01-06", 0.7630233665056461], ["2023-01-06", 0.8387825005023047], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-there-be-fewer-than-21-antimcc | Resolves YES if on the last ballot to elect the Speaker of the House by Friday January 6 11:59 pm ET, there are strictly fewer than 21 Republican votes not for McCarthy, including "present" votes. This count does not include Republicans who do not vote at all. Otherwise resolves NO. For context, on the most recent ball... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will there be fewer than 21 anti-McCarthy Republican votes in the last Speaker ballot Friday? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-06 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/politics/mccarthy-speaker-fight-friday/index.html"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.00797032111473143], ["2023-01-06", 0.018350236598222998], ["2023-01-06", 0.1216148700089951], ["2023-01-06", 0.25706940874035994], ["2023-01-06", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-01-06", 0.35241540046243425], ["2023-01-06", 0.38066087732311377], ["2023-01-07", 0.0032908791625763088]] | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-there-be-more-than-21-antimcca | Resolves YES if on the last ballot to elect the Speaker of the House by Friday January 6 11:59 pm ET, there are strictly more than 21 Republican votes not for McCarthy, including "present" votes. This count does not include Republicans who do not vote at all. Otherwise resolves NO. For context, on the most recent ballo... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will there be more than 21 anti-McCarthy Republican votes in the last Speaker ballot Friday? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-06", 0.8104306161985296], ["2023-01-06", 0.82], ["2023-01-06", 0.82], ["2023-01-06", 0.82], ["2023-01-06", 0.82], ["2023-01-06", 0.82], ["2023-01-06", 0.83], ["2023-01-06", 0.832344822669879], ["2023-01-06", 0.832344822669879], ["2023-01-06", 0.832344822669879], ["2023-01-... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-meta-have-a-higher-market-cap | Meta passed Tesla in market cap today. Will it hold until the end of the month? | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Meta have a higher market cap than Tesla at the end of January 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-13 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.3452282491701904], ["2023-01-06", 0.3697541946717091], ["2023-01-06", 0.41528084793704034], ["2023-01-06", 0.4492077935166592], ["2023-01-06", 0.48020897625290115], ["2023-01-06", 0.5389638585834583], ["2023-01-06", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-01-08", 0.5796934826362847], ["2023-01-08", 0.649598380503... | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-avatar-the-way-of-water-be-the | Currently Top Gun: Maverick is the top grossing domestic movie of 2022, with a domestic gross of $718,318,561. At the time of this market's creation Avatar: The Way of Water has a domestic gross of $464,958,728. If it exceeds Top Gun: Maverick's domestic numbers this market shall resolve YES. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-20 | Will "Avatar: The Way of Water" be the top grossing domestic (US/Canada) movie released in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-14 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.060146554666169486], ["2023-01-06", 0.0877077205610215], ["2023-01-06", 0.12000000000000001], ["2023-01-06", 0.13793103448275873], ["2023-01-06", 0.13804928814485884], ["2023-01-06", 0.3076923076923078], ["2023-01-06", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-08", 0.14500864939013033], ["2023-01-08", 0.17999999... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-bitcoin-drop-below-16000-in-th | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-14 | Will Bitcoin drop below $16000 in the next week? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-25 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.010135039217465818], ["2023-01-06", 0.04597048808172535], ["2023-01-06", 0.07999999999999992], ["2023-01-06", 0.08522060402459962], ["2023-01-06", 0.12515195923101807], ["2023-01-06", 0.13915041548815507], ["2023-01-06", 0.13915041548815507], ["2023-01-06", 0.13915041548815507], ["2023-01-06", 0.13915... | https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-amazon-lay-of-9k-or-more-peopl | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will Amazon lay off 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-24 | 2023-01-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-01-06", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-01-06", 0.6882642465231681], ["2023-01-06", 0.7363844416908042], ["2023-01-06", 0.7750983554757068], ["2023-01-06", 0.8064471503228176], ["2023-01-06", 0.8320358957231474], ["2023-01-06", 0.8531031386904765], ["2023-01-06", 0.87059858497351... | https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-amazon-lay-off-more-than-5k-pe | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-24 | Will Amazon lay off more than 5k people globally in Q1, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-12 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-07", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-12", 0.85], ["2023-01-12", 0.9867500891847747]] | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-jan-30-fe1fcfd76a08 | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Jan 7 11AM ET | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-12 | Will SBF make a tweet before Jan 30, 2023 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-12 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.3539167001746854], ["2023-01-07", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-07", 0.40983606557377084], ["2023-01-08", 0.4028436136427039], ["2023-01-08", 0.4028436136427039], ["2023-01-08", 0.4028436136427039], ["2023-01-08", 0.41625649736380765], ["2023-01-10", 0.3688565282892479], ["2023-01-12", 0.849999999999... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-jan-20-416524ebac6b | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Jan 7 11AM ET | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-12 | Will SBF make a tweet before Jan 20, 2023 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-10 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.353402102218421], ["2023-01-07", 0.42459306813634967], ["2023-01-07", 0.5549830977038556], ["2023-01-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-08", 0.4187595861973027], ["2023-01-08", 0.45], ["2023-01-08", 0.5355976793632287], ["2023-01-08", 0.549068201212442], ["2023-01-08", 0.5538876898761907], ["2023-01-... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-house-pass-a-rules-package-a319597dbb0c | The House is set to reconvene Monday. Resolves YES if the House adopts a rules package by end of day Monday (11:59:59 pm ET), otherwise NO. Context: Resolution sources will be (For example, the rules package history for the 117th congress can be found at | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-10 | Will the House pass a rules package by Monday? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-10 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-07", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-08", 0.3124346458242836], ["2023-01-08", 0.4057570830327835], ["2023-01-09", 0.2998097174419397], ["2023-01-10", 0.04514642710757463], ["2023-01-10", 0.054882757979797775], ["2023-01-10", 0.12214661352333978], ["2023-01-10", 0.15000000000... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-jan-10-c102ee5e85fe | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Jan 7 11AM ET | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-11 | Will SBF make a tweet before Jan 10, 2023 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-01-07 | ["https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.2440452948067162], ["2023-01-07", 0.3497148867992019], ["2023-01-07", 0.44441637422765545], ["2023-01-07", 0.5284633417603211], ["2023-01-07", 0.6003893193433498], ["2023-01-07", 0.6467238258023146], ["2023-01-08", 0.5993713504749034], ["2023-01-08", 0.61], ["2023-01-11", 0.5841805849285986], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/365-days-of-war-will-russia-lose-mo-9f286035b458 | On February 24 2022 Russia has started a major invasion of territories in Ukraine. https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/ recent estimations: | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | 365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 3280 tanks? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-18 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.75], ["2023-01-07", 0.7858733464371561], ["2023-01-07", 0.7919095022441015], ["2023-01-07", 0.8], ["2023-01-07", 0.8149783627044345], ["2023-01-07", 0.82], ["2023-01-07", 0.8322542973072887], ["2023-01-07", 0.8471661519892371], ["2023-01-07", 0.8583510704273309], ["2023-01-08", 0.837972257376124], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-annual-inflation-in-the-europe | This is a market on a year-to-year inflation, as measured by the Eurostat (HICP), from December 2021 to December 2022. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union annual inflation in December 2022 is higher than 9.1 percent and "No" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat, the ... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-18 | Will annual inflation in the European Union be more than 9.1% in December? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.25], ["2023-01-07", 0.25000000000000006], ["2023-01-07", 0.27], ["2023-01-07", 0.33004411929991706], ["2023-01-07", 0.37211061149496105], ["2023-01-07", 0.4], ["2023-01-07", 0.4], ["2023-01-07", 0.4], ["2023-01-07", 0.4], ["2023-01-07", 0.4], ["2023-01-07", 0.4], ["2023-01-07", 0.5], ["2023-01-09", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/before-march-will-the-house-hold-a | This market will resolve YES if, before March 1st 2023, the House of Representatives holds a vote that would remove the Speaker of the House from office. The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market, as long as the vote takes place. This vote takes the form of a "motion to vacat... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Before March, will the House hold a vote on removing the Speaker of the House? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-30 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.38000000000000006], ["2023-01-07", 0.38000000000000017], ["2023-01-07", 0.44999999999999996], ["2023-01-07", 0.44999999999999996], ["2023-01-07", 0.44999999999999996], ["2023-01-07", 0.44999999999999996], ["2023-01-07", 0.44999999999999996], ["2023-01-07", 0.5], ["2023-01-09", 0.4445687330665812], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/before-may-will-the-house-hold-a-vo | This market will resolve YES if, before May 1st 2023, the House of Representatives holds a vote that would remove the Speaker of the House from office. The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market, as long as the vote takes place. This vote takes the form of a "motion to vacate ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Before May, will the House hold a vote on removing the Speaker of the House? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-18 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-04-01", 0.45661965496511636], ["2023-04-01", 0.5118846773189571], ["2023-05-16", 0.7069681015323125], ["2023-05-16", 0.7069681015323125], ["2023-05-16", 0.7069681015323125], ["2023-05-16", 0.7856574690887349], ["2023-05-17", 0.8077320168171368], ["2023-05-17", 0.8399999999999... | https://manifold.markets/brp/will-joe-biden-visit-japan-in-2023 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-18 | Will Joe Biden visit Japan in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-08 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.4055046741152356], ["2023-01-07", 0.4055046741152356], ["2023-01-07", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-07", 0.4946238113131196], ["2023-01-07", 0.5163890381515316], ["2023-01-07", 0.6033494931687969], ["2023-01-12", 0.42618918705982634], ["2023-02-03", 0.29883034184752844], ["2023-02-08", 0.454563206598... | https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-old-school-runescape-have-a-ro | Any rollback on the main servers will count. No leagues, deadmanmode, etc. A rollback is an event where progress is "rolled back" or reverted. Generally because Jagex mess up an update and have to restore from backup. I will add liquidity if there isn't much demand for this market. Closes based on my local timezone, I ... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-08 | Will Old School RuneScape have a rollback in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-23 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.5], ["2023-01-07", 0.5362516293145024], ["2023-01-07", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-13", 0.47245551262439445], ["2023-01-15", 0.39868573042561856], ["2023-01-26", 0.3769448212708373], ["2023-02-15", 0.33741405773861444], ["2023-03-25", 0.40730759827170565], ["2023-04-08", 0.30896216029143414], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/HIPSTERPOTAMUS/will-frank-ocean-release-a-new-sing | Frank Ocean, who hasn't officially released a single or album since 2020's "Cayendo", is the only confirmed artist set to headline Coachella 2023. Will Frank Ocean release new music before the end of Coachella 2023? This market resolves YES if Frank Ocean releases music before the final day of Coachella 2023 (As of wri... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-23 | Will Frank Ocean release a new single or album before the end of Coachella 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-01-07", 0.6979217013049779], ["2023-01-07", 0.786616592693752], ["2023-01-07", 0.817996505532906], ["2023-01-07", 0.8809297008954085], ["2023-01-07", 0.8899999999999999], ["2023-01-07", 0.9132431770742244], ["2023-01-07", 0.9204085781632495], ["2023-01-07", 0.9299819562085784]... | https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-there-be-a-speaker-of-the-hous-44ab07759fb4 | It's 11:04 PM in Texas right now. Will they get their act together and get a successful vote done in the 56 minutes that remain? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will there be a speaker of the house by January 6, 2023, CENTRAL time? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.013259040990718424], ["2023-01-07", 0.013325961219500516], ["2023-01-07", 0.01347064490708813], ["2023-01-07", 0.013551584415611979], ["2023-01-07", 0.0161170296691663], ["2023-01-07", 0.020870732373237673], ["2023-01-07", 0.02846395062698042], ["2023-01-07", 0.040738291074760596], ["2023-01-07", 0.04... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-house-pass-the-rules-packa-7680fdfa88e0 | They have announced that once McCarthy is speaker members will be sworn in immediately and a vote on the rule's package will then take place immediately following. Will it pass? Recreating market I closed prematurely. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will the House pass the rules package before adjourning? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.4585887002518975], ["2023-01-07", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-01-07", 0.5], ["2023-01-07", 0.5497518595104995], ["2023-01-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-07", 0.6637513968466885], ["2023-01-07", 0.6637513968466885], ["2023-01-07", 0.7000000000000001], ["2023-01-07", 0.7440212926218194], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-elected-spea | Explicitly the 15th, whenever that will be YES if he's elected, NO if it goes to another ballot or if anyone else wins | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will Kevin McCarthy be elected Speaker of the House on the 15th ballot? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.017221634684296844], ["2023-01-07", 0.02150092390700624], ["2023-01-07", 0.02331853399791506], ["2023-01-07", 0.029428005328987494], ["2023-01-07", 0.04404383799181076], ["2023-01-07", 0.04624303330110794], ["2023-01-07", 0.06788051704106858], ["2023-01-07", 0.06999999999999999], ["2023-01-07", 0.0786... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-another-physical-alte | Tonight meaning from now until dawn. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will there be another physical altercation in the House of Representatives tonight? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.34518437462473056], ["2023-01-07", 0.4190981951346203], ["2023-01-07", 0.5590803233830642], ["2023-01-07", 0.6374718470512711], ["2023-01-07", 0.6995938033537005], ["2023-01-07", 0.6999999999999997], ["2023-01-07", 0.6999999999999998], ["2023-01-07", 0.7], ["2023-01-07", 0.7573065531445579], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/Hamm/will-there-be-a-speaker-of-the-hous | resolves YES if somone wins the speaker of the house vote resolves NO if they adjurn | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will there be a speaker of the house before the house adjourns? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.005210494299730462], ["2023-01-07", 0.007203803899321797], ["2023-01-07", 0.007641662626253315], ["2023-01-07", 0.009977246021481178], ["2023-01-07", 0.011286559270410348], ["2023-01-07", 0.01173445312727721], ["2023-01-07", 0.011906915645528999], ["2023-01-07", 0.012835221319430462], ["2023-01-07", 0... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-house-pass-a-rules-package-bbaf6e90c737 | The House is set to reconvene tonight at 10pm ET. Resolves YES if the House passes a rules package before the House next adjourns, otherwise NO. Resolution sources will be (For example, the rules package history for the 117th congress can be found at Related: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will the House pass a rules package before their next adjournment? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.003894176302098428], ["2023-01-07", 0.040881233979041545], ["2023-01-07", 0.0801940094900737], ["2023-01-07", 0.25921698444757946], ["2023-01-07", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-01-07", 0.3717472118959108]] | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-house-pass-a-rules-package | The House is set to reconvene tonight at 10pm ET. Resolves YES if the House passes a rules package by end of day Friday Jan 6 (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO. Resolution sources will be (For example, the rules package history for the 117th congress can be found at Related: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will the House pass a rules package by Friday midnight? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.029282285025122], ["2023-01-07", 0.04107925519917118], ["2023-01-07", 0.06248450328700162], ["2023-01-07", 0.13042881619374652], ["2023-01-07", 0.13042881619374652], ["2023-01-07", 0.13042881619374652], ["2023-01-07", 0.19898739188081724], ["2023-01-07", 0.21288542070939007], ["2023-01-07", 0.30380893... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-house-pass-the-rules-packa | They have announced that once McCarthy is speaker members will be sworn in immediately and a vote on the rule's package will then take place immediately following. Will it pass? | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will the House pass the rules package before adjourning? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-08", 0.35697060659699253], ["2023-01-09", 0.3978633863605438], ["2023-01-14", 0.35732972840551164], ["2023-01-16", 0.35732972840551136], ["2023-01-16", 0.41199416025003166], ["2023-02-01", 0.23740485555202515], ["2023-02-01", 0.2529487188805014], ["2023-02-01", 0.253031718... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-any-member-of-the-house-gop-co-7a3d3a1b0160 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will any member of the House GOP Conference invoke the motion to depose the speaker during the first 90 days of the 118th Congress? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.5675164195197554], ["2023-01-07", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-07", 0.5911255257453458], ["2023-01-07", 0.7572743833027501], ["2023-01-07", 0.7978412118216968], ["2023-01-07", 0.8733851567990079], ["2023-01-07", 0.8733851567990079], ["2023-01-07", 0.8733851567990079], ["2023-01-07", 0.87463372197121... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-at-least-2-members-vote-presen | See also: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will at least 2 members vote "present" in the final ballot electing the next Speaker of the House? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-11 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.4061902044378798], ["2023-01-07", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-01-08", 0.3746723278848519], ["2023-01-10", 0.48], ["2023-01-10", 0.49425660884363526], ["2023-01-11", 0.0030306581587375213], ["2023-01-11", 0.08902676665703498], ["2023-01-11", 0.10402968859694489], ["2023-01-11", 0.15949328284931774], ["... | https://manifold.markets/ForrestTaylor/will-kevin-adams-r-win-the-jan-10-v | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-11 | Will Kevin Adams (R) win the Jan 10 Virginia State Senate District 7 Special Election? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-05 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.4201398284483278], ["2023-01-07", 0.5], ["2023-01-07", 0.5], ["2023-01-08", 0.3524211591183261], ["2023-01-08", 0.3844231080243718], ["2023-01-12", 0.40000000000000013], ["2023-01-12", 0.4095131657741036], ["2023-01-14", 0.37118353727983505], ["2023-01-16", 0.36098089664097066], ["2023-01-16", 0.37999... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-any-member-of-the-house-gop-co-7f89e6bab400 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-06 | Will any member of the House GOP Conference invoke the motion to depose the speaker during the first 30 days of the 118th Congress? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-07", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-07", 0.7191011235955054], ["2023-01-07", 0.764150943396226], ["2023-01-07", 0.9137238291029018], ["2023-01-07", 0.9280595999656525], ["2023-01-07", 0.9396753699971857], ["2023-01-07", 0.9887579885917792]] | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-at-least-1-member-vote-present | See also: | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will at least 1 member vote "present" in the final ballot electing the next Speaker of the House? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-18 | 2023-01-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-12", 0.23584905660377364], ["2023-01-12", 0.3178600808146369], ["2023-01-12", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-01-12", 0.42262456340437665], ["2023-01-12", 0.527007299270073], ["2023-01-12", 0.5319946561045541], ["2023-01-12", 0.5319946561045541], ["2023-01-12", 0.5319946561045541], ["2023-01-12", 0.610535020087... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/im-auctioning-away-m1000-will-the-h | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-20 | I'm auctioning away M$1000. Will the highest bid be at least M$500? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-17 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.3585559566079691], ["2023-01-13", 0.3585559566079691], ["2023-01-13", 0.3585559566079691], ["2023-01-13", 0.3900000000000001], ["2023-01-13", 0.3900000000000001], ["2023-01-13", 0.3900000000000001], ["2023-01-13", 0.65], ["2023-01-13", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-13", 0.8977296784054972], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/chilli/will-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-gr | Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (relased on Dec 21, 2022) is currently in its 24th day of showing, and has grossed 92.969 million domestically thus far ( Will Puss in Boots: The Last Wish outgross Sing 2 by the end of its run? | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-19 | Will Puss in Boots: The Last Wish gross more than Sing 2 (162 million) domestically? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-28 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-13", 0.6753075303280459], ["2023-01-14", 0.581383422698884], ["2023-01-14", 0.5975283953471195], ["2023-01-14", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-01-14", 0.6099688437188664], ["2023-01-14", 0.6257561852383746], ["2023-01-14", 0.63], ["2023-01-14", 0.6493132560046193], ["2023-01-... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-deal-be-made-to-extend-the-d | Democrats are pushing hard for Congress to deal with the debt ceiling as the first order of regular business during the 118th Congress. Will they be able to strike a deal with the more mature members of the GOP Conference? This resolves YES if a deal has been announced to extend the debt ceiling by the end of February... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-28 | Will a deal be made to extend the debt ceiling by the end of February? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-11 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-13", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-13", 0.7488858033082229], ["2023-01-13", 0.7961306892518374], ["2023-01-13", 0.7992961300240042], ["2023-01-14", 0.8647470041489461], ["2023-01-14", 0.8647470041489461], ["2023-01-14", 0.8647470041489461], ["2023-01-14", 0.88866418602802... | https://manifold.markets/AMONRA/will-destiny-go-on-the-freshfit-pod | Destiny was on fresh& fit multiple times in 2022. Jan 13, 2:31pm: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-11 | Will destiny go on the fresh&fit podcast again by the end of June? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-16 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-13", 0.44234685998903533], ["2023-01-14", 0.30516476454842023], ["2023-01-16", 0.022438590116118127]] | https://manifold.markets/nickburlett/will-the-twitterific-ios-app-regain | Many third party Twitter clients, including Twitterific for iOS, have been unable to access Twitter for over 12 hours as of market creation. This market is specifically about Twitterific for iOS being able to access Twitter (Twitterific for macOS seems unaffected). | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-16 | Will the Twitterific iOS app regain access to Twitter by the end of the day Sunday (Pacific Time)? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-31 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.14634312119421544], ["2023-01-13", 0.1473573117220055], ["2023-01-13", 0.16], ["2023-01-13", 0.16999999999999998], ["2023-01-13", 0.19880934126853012], ["2023-01-13", 0.22407584829276309], ["2023-01-13", 0.3276017970929877], ["2023-01-13", 0.3577049649449135], ["2023-01-13", 0.47241366341660634], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-bitcoins-price-dip-below-18000 | Resolves YES if at any point during January Bitcoin is valued at $18,000 or less from now (Jan 13th) until Jan 31st. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will Bitcoin's price dip below $18,000 by the end of January? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-24 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-13", 0.6532063563235416], ["2023-01-13", 0.7406362469460687], ["2023-04-13", 0.8499999999999999], ["2023-04-13", 0.8659588013145587], ["2023-04-24", 0.0036377638977502583], ["2023-04-24", 0.07000000000000002]] | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-minnesota-be-the-next-us-state | This question shall resolve YES if Minnesota is the next state to pass a law legalizing recreational marijuana. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-24 | Will Minnesota be the next US state to legalize recreational marijuana? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-17 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-01-13", 0.5164015366971482], ["2023-01-13", 0.519600307455803], ["2023-01-13", 0.5651417637850057], ["2023-01-14", 0.3003379250938836], ["2023-01-14", 0.32259935674145634], ["2023-01-14", 0.3532767059550186], ["2023-01-14", 0.3998382389974203], ["2023-01-14", 0.410293694618502... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-bitcoin-reach-15k-before-it-re-a123927f4668 | Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window above/below these values Related Markets | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-17 | Will Bitcoin reach $15k before it reaches $25k? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.09385753905589687], ["2023-01-13", 0.276768320374626], ["2023-01-13", 0.30816617330536367], ["2023-01-13", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-13", 0.34], ["2023-01-13", 0.36698040699440115], ["2023-01-13", 0.36758885740754793], ["2023-01-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-14", 0.3902394621637819], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/daniel/will-inflation-in-the-us-be-between | YES if CPI-U is in the interval [295.206, 298.016] at next publication. Market can be used to arb related markets below. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Will inflation in the US be between 5-6% in January 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.3394524677922359], ["2023-01-13", 0.35095638100210463], ["2023-01-13", 0.37258151008128015], ["2023-01-13", 0.3744186513502324], ["2023-01-13", 0.38], ["2023-01-13", 0.396850905860445], ["2023-01-13", 0.4263301500682129], ["2023-01-13", 0.42633015006821334], ["2023-01-13", 0.4263301500682134], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/daniel/will-inflation-in-the-us-fall-below | YES if CPI-U is <295.206 at next publication. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Will inflation in the US fall below 5.0% in January 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-01-13", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-01-13", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-01-13", 0.15491915389988428], ["2023-01-13", 0.16193789653501864], ["2023-01-13", 0.18], ["2023-01-13", 0.31952264502389954], ["2023-01-13", 0.3535228345226201], ["2023-01-13", 0.5418927936034924], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/daniel/will-inflation-stay-above-60-in-jan | YES if CPI-U is >298.016 at next publication. Related markets: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Will inflation in the US stay above 6.0% in January 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-31 | 2023-01-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-13", 0.04000000000000004], ["2023-01-13", 0.04083181226269339], ["2023-01-13", 0.04660935410388347], ["2023-01-13", 0.05132468042528461], ["2023-01-13", 0.05262119834802606], ["2023-01-13", 0.0833248762509483], ["2023-01-13", 0.0833248762509483], ["2023-01-13", 0.0833248762509483], ["2023-01-13", 0.083324876... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-sbf-be-in-jail-by-june-2023 | Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by May 31st 11:59pm, 2023. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-31 | Will SBF be in prison by June 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2023-01-14 | ["https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-02-01", 0.2615255759143088], ["2023-02-13", 0.1517222817387534], ["2023-02-26", 0.03104327095143558], ["2023-02-26", 0.04645414760146146], ["2023-02-28", 0.008013480431769802], ["2023-02-28", 0.011953934136288584], ["2023-03-01", 0.005179735890066895]] | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/bitcoin-below-19k-by-end-of-feb | https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Bitcoin below $19k by end of Feb. | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-01-14 | ["https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.3133263062791747], ["2023-01-14", 0.4264154381573925], ["2023-01-14", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-01-15", 0.3708878351659636], ["2023-01-15", 0.44125192799755536], ["2023-01-16", 0.07363491648571469], ["2023-01-16", 0.08680764069892749], ["2023-01-16", 0.10397381604492063], ["2023-01-16", 0.15000000000... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/bitcoin-below-17k-by-end-of-mar | https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Bitcoin below $17k by end of Mar. | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-20 | 2023-01-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.3602736896816556], ["2023-01-14", 0.4064242186603928], ["2023-01-14", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-15", 0.3462364208364959], ["2023-01-15", 0.3624033382786339], ["2023-01-15", 0.36240333827863397], ["2023-01-15", 0.362403338278634], ["2023-01-15", 0.3624856462809829], ["2023-01-15", 0.37999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-bitcoins-price-peak-above-2200 | Resolves YES if at any point during January Bitcoin is valued at $22,000 or more. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-20 | Will Bitcoin's price peak above $22,000 by the end of January? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-30 | 2023-01-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.1039651264694732], ["2023-01-14", 0.13744938295631484], ["2023-01-14", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-16", 0.20937146330192513], ["2023-01-18", 0.11178994316075999], ["2023-01-20", 0.13715300999471694], ["2023-01-23", 0.13005124812164426], ["2023-01-25", 0.1242142983... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/sport-2023-milwaukee-bucks-make-it | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the Matthew Yglesias | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-04 | Sport 2023: Milwaukee Bucks make it to NBA finals? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-10 | 2023-01-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.35320177185750756], ["2023-01-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-14", 0.42316079169827814], ["2023-01-14", 0.5532109693264906], ["2023-01-14", 0.6088116248463941], ["2023-01-14", 0.6362901472608602], ["2023-01-15", 0.5422231110028228], ["2023-01-15", 0.5695087094519009], ["2023-01-15", 0.572068846159... | https://manifold.markets/audrey/will-it-take-michael-reeves-6-or-mo | his last video was posted yesterday (1/13). video before that was posted ~10 months prior, then 11 months prior, then 7 months prior, then 2 months prior, then 3 months prior, etc. so no one really knows how long the next video will take. resolves YES if it is 12am PST on 7/13/23 and he has not released another video, ... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-11 | Will it take Michael Reeves 6 or more months to post his next YouTube video? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-08 | 2023-01-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.27223613261225327], ["2023-01-14", 0.2950839963682646], ["2023-01-14", 0.29682977991425413], ["2023-01-14", 0.4836109618484687], ["2023-01-14", 0.5000000000000002], ["2023-01-14", 0.5000000000000002], ["2023-01-14", 0.5901639344262296], ["2023-01-14", 0.8], ["2023-01-15", 0.20452328824675403], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-joe-biden-announce-his-2024-ca | Close date updated to 2023-02-08 5:00 pm Close date updated to 2023-02-08 4:22 pm | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-08 | Will Joe Biden announce his 2024 candidacy at the 2023 State of the Union? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-14 | 2023-01-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.19218695326691643], ["2023-01-14", 0.2], ["2023-01-14", 0.23114250994030652], ["2023-01-14", 0.24963018262110373], ["2023-01-14", 0.2810582957429575], ["2023-01-14", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-01-15", 0.1898755268263277], ["2023-01-16", 0.17447945605372736], ["2023-01-16", 0.18146002716327533], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-average-price-of-a-dozen-e | Resolves YES if FRED reports a US city average price <= $3.50 per dozen eggs for February 2023: The average price for November 2022 was $3.59. The average price for December 2022 was $4.25. I will not bet in this market. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will the average price of a dozen eggs drop below $3.50 in February 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-08 | 2023-01-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-14", 0.3397031511953641], ["2023-01-14", 0.3775793770802736], ["2023-01-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-14", 0.4130178308451744], ["2023-01-17", 0.4], ["2023-01-17", 0.4233976567865725], ["2023-01-19", 0.36268935985602396], ["2023-01-19", 0.37], ["2023-01-19", 0.37], ["2023-01-19", 0.37], ["2023-02-05", ... | https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-cocaine-bear-have-at-least-50 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-08 | Will "Cocaine Bear" have at least 50% on Rotten Tomatoes two weeks after release? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-16 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.09790757810944868], ["2023-01-15", 0.10814562664574442], ["2023-01-15", 0.11557432772390655], ["2023-01-15", 0.1199999999999999], ["2023-01-15", 0.1199999999999999], ["2023-01-15", 0.1199999999999999], ["2023-01-15", 0.12409819355580645], ["2023-01-15", 0.15000000000000002], ["2023-01-15", 0.169862247... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-the-ravens-beat-the-bengals | Resolves YES if the Ravens win today, resolves no is the Bengals win or it's a draw | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-16 | Will the Ravens beat the Bengals? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-17 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.23895675357883875], ["2023-01-15", 0.28089887640449446], ["2023-01-15", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-16", 0.31169246641121945], ["2023-01-16", 0.339794276870285], ["2023-01-16", 0.37570838627892744], ["2023-01-16", 0.3787919136612028], ["2023-01-16", 0.411980233772... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-the-buccaneers-beat-the-cowboy | Resolves YES if the Buccs win tomorrow, resolves no is the Cowboys win or it's a draw | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-17 | Will the Buccaneers beat the Cowboys? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-01-15", 0.3237547656669529], ["2023-01-15", 0.32375476566695294], ["2023-01-18", 0.2924778436460538], ["2023-01-19", 0.4611406532795066], ["2023-01-22", 0.558296204702153], ["2023-01-22", 0.6392560541969782], ["2023-01-22", 0.7047890887208], ["2023-01-24", 0.3100392472153405... | https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-starship-undergo-a-static-fire | For this to resolve, we must see either a communication from Musk or SpaceX that such a test took place, or a video of the event. Resolves YES even if the test is unsuccessful, as long as either all of the engines fire simultaneously or the ship explodes. Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will Starship undergo a static fire test of all 33 engines by January 31? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-16 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-15", 0.5774942949349877], ["2023-01-15", 0.6353470448652719], ["2023-01-15", 0.679743316431543], ["2023-01-15", 0.6797433164315431], ["2023-01-15", 0.7149961457241808], ["2023-01-16", 0.7925646025503668], ["2023-01-16", 0.8541926933950971... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-the-giants-beat-the-vikings | Resolves YES if the Giants win today, resolves no is the Vikings win or it's a draw | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-16 | Will the Giants beat the Vikings? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-28 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.06303740207668113], ["2023-01-15", 0.06567940193433809], ["2023-01-15", 0.06567940193433809], ["2023-01-15", 0.06741367344843305], ["2023-01-15", 0.06741367344843306], ["2023-01-15", 0.07133057293964454], ["2023-01-15", 0.11940234335285897], ["2023-01-15", 0.11940234335285897], ["2023-01-15", 0.305007... | https://manifold.markets/TJH/resolves-to-no-if-and-only-percenta | Get my attention if it does Jan 15, 8:50am: Close date updated to 2023-01-28 5:59 pm | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-28 | Resolves to no if and only if percentage never drops below 5% for more than an hour | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.3569706065969924], ["2023-01-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-17", 0.2938393187091226], ["2023-01-18", 0.35101185336824126], ["2023-01-19", 0.3262918534964215], ["2023-01-28", 0.27986492078016506], ["2023-01-28", 0.3], ["2023-01-28", 0.4], ["2023-01-28", 0.4], ["2023-01-28", 0.4], ["2023-01-28", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/ZanyEconomist/tesla-market-cap-higher-than-bitcoi | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Tesla market cap higher than Bitcoin market cap on February 1st, 2023. | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-31 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.7436482171197045], ["2023-01-15", 0.7454422184051758], ["2023-01-15", 0.76], ["2023-01-15", 0.76], ["2023-01-15", 0.76], ["2023-01-15", 0.7600000000000001], ["2023-01-15", 0.7741454271359663], ["2023-01-15", 0.785305978639571], ["2023-01-15", 0.79], ["2023-01-15", 0.79], ["2023-01-15", 0.79], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-428k | 1. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will Vaush's main channel reach 428k subs by the end of January? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-12 | 2023-01-15 | ["https://expo.se/2023/01/elon-musk-funded-nonprofit-run-mit-professor-offered-finance-swedish-pro-nazi-group", "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5vFmMXWsh6PaYjqab/linkpost-fli-alleged-to-have-offered-funding-to-far-right"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.038618888495007934], ["2023-01-15", 0.039331901239279085], ["2023-01-15", 0.039999999999999994], ["2023-01-15", 0.04275092630926109], ["2023-01-15", 0.08956964260687776], ["2023-01-15", 0.13793103448275862], ["2023-01-15", 0.21691973969631242], ["2023-01-16", 0.041484865642999455], ["2023-01-16", 0.04... | https://manifold.markets/harfe/will-max-tegmark-or-fli-issue-a-sta | Context: https://expo.se/2023/01/elon-musk-funded-nonprofit-run-mit-professor-offered-finance-swedish-pro-nazi-group https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5vFmMXWsh6PaYjqab/linkpost-fli-alleged-to-have-offered-funding-to-far-right This will resolve positively if Max Tegmark or FLI (in official capacity) make a pub... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-14 | Will Max Tegmark or FLI issue a statement (before Feb 14th) that the letter of intent (to the swedish right-wing media org) was fake? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-17 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.6252575615550852], ["2023-01-15", 0.6366013532218193], ["2023-01-15", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-15", 0.7148763691152791], ["2023-01-15", 0.7899999999999999], ["2023-01-15", 0.8006451091966901], ["2023-01-15", 0.8146986433376069], ["2023-01-16", 0.43222002604714266], ["2023-01-16", 0.4322200260471... | https://manifold.markets/ArjunPanickssery/will-arjuns-dominant-assurance-cont | See | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-21 | Will Arjun's dominant assurance contract reach the required 10 funders? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-13 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.2859124550299668], ["2023-01-15", 0.2892273050498632], ["2023-01-15", 0.31000000000000005], ["2023-01-15", 0.3200000000000001], ["2023-01-15", 0.3200000000000001], ["2023-01-15", 0.3200000000000001], ["2023-01-15", 0.33191026055650474], ["2023-01-15", 0.3801907437589134], ["2023-01-15", 0.409836065573... | https://manifold.markets/BenjaminHemming/will-nintendo-delay-the-legend-of-z | Video game in development releasing on May 12th | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will Nintendo delay The legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-01-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-15", 0.4982828038785167], ["2023-01-15", 0.5656440795270866], ["2023-01-15", 0.6363789786563887], ["2023-01-15", 0.67], ["2023-01-15", 0.6852583869565455], ["2023-01-15", 0.6922431144379876], ["2023-01-15", 0.7115662065804984], ["2023-01-16", 0.7261606562440459], ["2023-01... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-russia-launch-another-round-of | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will Russia launch another round of mobilization by the end of March? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-28 | 2023-01-24 | ["https://manifold.markets/nfd/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-a32cd5d06922"] | BINARY | [["2023-01-24", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-01-24", 0.8347596904071929], ["2023-01-25", 0.836322746947986], ["2023-01-25", 0.8631556706589913], ["2023-01-26", 0.8364226832516533], ["2023-01-26", 0.906543822377116], ["2023-01-27", 0.864812196063603], ["2023-01-28", 0.89], ["2023-01-28", 0.89], ["2023-01-28", 0.903412569... | https://manifold.markets/nfd/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-72c1187b5b07 | https://manifold.markets/nfd/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-a32cd5d06922 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-28 | Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 6 human users submit a trade? (run 2) | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-01 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-25", 0.1282519778829614], ["2023-01-25", 0.13801258486412366], ["2023-01-25", 0.14999999999999997], ["2023-01-25", 0.14999999999999997], ["2023-01-25", 0.14999999999999997], ["2023-01-25", 0.15036072083219448], ["2023-01-25", 0.1516904783728039], ["2023-01-25", 0.17999999999999994], ["2023-01-25", 0.19622066... | https://manifold.markets/glowingthorns/will-this-market-be-at-exactly-50-o | resolves YES if the market is at 50%. resolves no if it is more or less than 50%. just a silly idea i had Close date updated to 2023-02-01 9:00 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | will this market be at exactly 50% on february 1? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-24", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.5874525717154113], ["2023-01-28", 0.6845561305973653], ["2023-01-29", 0.6278408982805435], ["2023-01-30", 0.6543857211791418], ["2023-02-02", 0.5738363826531729], ["2023-02-02", 0.61], ["2023-02-24", 0.6318628529358832], ["2023-03-02", 0.6500953040529294], ["2023-03... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-banshees-of-inisherin-win | 'The Banshees of Inisherin' is nominated for 9 Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards. This market will resolve to YES if it wins in at least 3 categories. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'The Banshees of Inisherin' win 3 or more Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-24", 0.4901339563332875], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-01-24", 0.59016393442622... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-everything-everywhere-all-at-o-1e6e26e66abb | EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 5 of those 11. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 5 or more Academy Awards? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-28 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-24", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-24", 0.39], ["2023-01-24", 0.39], ["2023-01-24", 0.39], ["2023-01-24", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-24", 0.4852860914371075], ["2023-01-28", 0.3474326434557646], ["2023-01-28", 0.36628620547692287], ["2023-02-08", 0.39], ["2023-02-08", 0.40247057004500986], ["2023-02-12",... | https://manifold.markets/AustinGale/will-lamar-jackson-be-a-baltimore-r | Jan 24, 12:59pm: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-30 | Will Lamar Jackson be a Baltimore Raven in the 2023 season? | manifold | 1 |
2023-02-14 | 2023-01-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-24", 0.2916477588248365], ["2023-01-24", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-01-24", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-01-25", 0.2655569404735209], ["2023-01-25", 0.28875101546221726], ["2023-01-25", 0.2905870137128057], ["2023-01-25", 0.2905870137128057], ["2023-01-25", 0.2905870137128057], ["2023-01-26", 0.32000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-there-be-86000-confirmed-cases-a43271ce972f | Resolves to YES if there are >=86,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of February 14, 2022 from Our World in Data: Bidding closes February 14, but I will resolve as soon as 86K cases is passed or when there is data for February 14. Please notice that the data from the link ... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-15 | Will there be >=86,000 confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide by mid February 2023? | manifold | 0 |
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