date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | extracted_urls stringlengths 2 7.19k | question_type stringclasses 3
values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-03-14 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-11-23", 0.6069021962245463], ["2022-11-24", 0.800551322663629], ["2022-11-25", 0.801930527152097], ["2022-11-27", 0.7532318463913472], ["2022-11-27", 0.7700000000000001], ["2022-11-27", 0.8019585067818568], ["2022-11-27", 0.8131385718922325], ["2022-12-06", 0.7823716697291825... | https://manifold.markets/vluzko/shortterm-ai-2-by-the-end-of-june-2 | Current SOTA is ~75%: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Short-Term AI #2: By the end of June 2023, will SOTA on MMLU overall be >=85%? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.22423535743115977], ["2022-11-23", 0.24680520346337426], ["2022-11-23", 0.25706940874035994], ["2022-11-25", 0.14469827474309657], ["2022-11-25", 0.15927818350788422], ["2022-11-25", 0.17619848294931584], ["2022-11-25", 0.19596829430885468], ["2022-11-25", 0.21923154513829243], ["2022-11-27", 0.134593... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/2022-world-cup-will-belgium-reach-t-36c13a2ded2c | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | 2022 World Cup: Will Belgium reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.257136453596589], ["2022-11-23", 0.28533500900142694], ["2022-11-23", 0.3288590604026846], ["2022-11-25", 0.1912368072078481], ["2022-11-25", 0.20485003015871364], ["2022-11-25", 0.20575178615783501], ["2022-11-25", 0.21999999999999995], ["2022-11-25", 0.22100531636... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/2022-world-cup-will-denmark-reach-t-d172786d68d0 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | 2022 World Cup: Will Denmark reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.23742212510107866], ["2022-11-23", 0.26262894716629365], ["2022-11-23", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-25", 0.19307523302632412], ["2022-11-25", 0.20000000000000004], ["2022-11-25", 0.20707177286159165], ["2022-11-25", 0.22270214029104238], ["2022-11-25", 0.2402229... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/2022-world-cup-will-argentina-reach-a8579e311a26 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | 2022 World Cup: Will Argentina reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.6477219037001308], ["2022-11-23", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-23", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-12-04", 0.5996144777859737], ["2022-12-15", 0.5111729649683141], ["2022-12-20", 0.27618789894338475], ["2022-12-30", 0.06867120262659755], ["2022-12-31", 0.017379136545... | https://manifold.markets/StuartBailey/will-usdjpy-close-above-140-on-dece | Dec 31st daily closing price > 140 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will USD/JPY close above 140 on December 31, 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.12277004188264892], ["2022-11-23", 0.14], ["2022-11-23", 0.1874227961780399], ["2022-11-23", 0.20000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.23], ["2022-11-23", 0.25706940874035994], ["2022-11-23", 0.27633960302615584], ["2022-11-23", 0.29], ["2022-11-23", 0.30999999999999994], ["2022-11-23", 0.400000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/StuartBailey/will-eurusd-close-above-parity-on-d | EUR/USD > 1.0000 Close date updated to 2022-12-31 5:00 pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will EUR/USD close above parity on December 31, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.30278838641112243], ["2022-11-23", 0.37603723647198345], ["2022-11-23", 0.39], ["2022-11-23", 0.39000000000000035], ["2022-11-23", 0.43], ["2022-11-23", 0.4436788103275535], ["2022-11-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-23", 0.45267513641129764], ["2022-11-23", 0.4558711571876935], ["2022-11-23", 0.47... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-2-have-more-trader | Markets in this series: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will this market (#2) have more traders than market #1? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-01-06", 0.5748145211467691], ["2023-01-06", 0.5775303786191922], ["2023-01-06", 0.5905619358739734], ["2023-01-06", 0.5905619358739734], ["2023-01-06", 0.5905619358739734], ["2023-01-06", 0.6017225905349155], ["2023-01-06", 0.6125357681627752], ["2023-01-06", 0.6398634096514502], ["2023-01-06", 0.63986340965145... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-the-next-spe | Rumors are floating that McCarthy won't be able to get the votes necessary to take the gavel from Pelosi on January 3rd unless he makes a deal with the GOP crazies. Will McCarthy do whatever it takes to become Speaker? Close date updated to 2023-01-03 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2023-01-06 11:59 pm Close date update... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will Kevin McCarthy be the next Speaker of the House? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.21071839421028984], ["2022-11-24", 0.2375415323235634], ["2022-11-24", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-24", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-25", 0.21827573557591784], ["2022-11-25", 0.2676135796669333], ["2022-11-25", 0.29122260171563236], ["2022-12-02", 0.08196287154610629], ["2022-12-02", 0.1173186676... | https://manifold.markets/Preen/will-the-hong-kong-dollar-peg-break | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the Hong Kong Dollar peg break by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-24 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.5], ["2022-11-24", 0.5000000000000002], ["2022-11-24", 0.53], ["2022-11-24", 0.53], ["2022-11-24", 0.53], ["2022-11-24", 0.53], ["2022-11-24", 0.53], ["2022-11-24", 0.6], ["2022-11-24", 0.6244249666391769], ["2022-11-24", 0.64], ["2022-11-24", 0.6549065007784255], ["2022-11-24", 0.6561131598603083], [... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16500-a-1e340b47b71a | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-24 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16,500 at Nov 24 10am ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-25 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.17449581667282282], ["2022-11-24", 0.2], ["2022-11-24", 0.24309917792225366], ["2022-11-24", 0.29180317542252476], ["2022-11-24", 0.29567485930274034], ["2022-11-24", 0.3451694187648061], ["2022-11-24", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-24", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-11-25", 0.0171751199855345], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/will-the-giants-win-their-game-toda | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-25 | Will the giants win their game today? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.44999999999999984], ["2022-11-24", 0.4600000000000002], ["2022-11-24", 0.4800000000000001], ["2022-11-24", 0.5029881246238772], ["2022-11-24", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-11-24", 0.5601049725924114], ["2022-11-24", 0.5626065458868756], ["2022-11-24", 0.5763165706168796], ["2022-11-24", 0.58], ["2022-1... | https://manifold.markets/finn/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-8d503ed25d3a | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before April 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.11936100889164114], ["2022-11-24", 0.12062726176115811], ["2022-11-24", 0.24712195001371928], ["2022-11-24", 0.3433147043010868], ["2022-11-24", 0.3897525317912946], ["2022-11-24", 0.3936030641731355], ["2022-11-24", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-24", 0.4099999999999998], ["2022-11-24", 0.43661258343... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-any-of-the-traders-roll-42-on | Each trader gets to roll one 100-sided die using You can (and should!) buy YES after you rolled 42. I'll wait until the price has stabilized close to 100% before resolving. Loaded dice and other hax are not allowed | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will any of the traders roll 42 on a 100-sided Fairly Random die by EOY? (no hax) | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.04728194572168421], ["2022-11-24", 0.05432743284244178], ["2022-11-24", 0.05671408075307184], ["2022-11-24", 0.059554471638969576], ["2022-11-24", 0.08896797153024918], ["2022-11-24", 0.1000000000000001], ["2022-11-25", 0.043910560481355575], ["2022-11-25", 0.046745525570117866], ["2022-11-25", 0.0483... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-germany-win-the-2022-world-cup | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will Germany Win the 2022 World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-24 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.13934060165051532], ["2022-11-24", 0.16], ["2022-11-24", 0.20123196266297338], ["2022-11-24", 0.22901922317148848], ["2022-11-24", 0.2485202293237016], ["2022-11-24", 0.26000000000000006], ["2022-11-24", 0.33230338018843764], ["2022-11-24", 0.36747864318922063], ["2022-11-24", 0.3967931333218016], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16700-a | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-24 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16,700 at Nov 24 1am ET? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.02197489772490029], ["2022-11-24", 0.025440164468990684], ["2022-11-24", 0.026119551648935972], ["2022-11-24", 0.028868360277136264], ["2022-11-24", 0.02989635671924868], ["2022-11-24", 0.030021641105941833], ["2022-11-24", 0.0352273477012481], ["2022-11-24", 0.049999999999999996], ["2022-11-24", 0.04... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-italy-win-the-2022-world-cup | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-26 | Will Italy Win the 2022 World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-11-24 | ["https://g.co/finance/.INX:INDEXSP"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.5514087970957379], ["2022-11-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-24", 0.5931776820251363], ["2022-11-24", 0.7031657366746416], ["2022-11-24", 0.727552690418275], ["2022-11-24", 0.7800000000000001], ["2022-11-24", 0.7858733955283633], ["2022-11-24", 0.8026692864350542], ["2022-11-25", 0.795590110906985... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-sp500-end-the-year-at-or-a | Resolves based on the S&P500 final settle value on the last trading day of 2022. Resolves YES if value >= 4,000. https://g.co/finance/.INX:INDEXSP | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-30 | Will the S&P500 end the year at or above 4,000? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-24", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-24", 0.7110582150165277], ["2022-11-24", 0.7335242046729391], ["2022-11-26", 0.3835402280454603], ["2022-11-26", 0.4343881806095009], ["2022-11-26", 0.4703755225328601], ["2022-11-26", 0.5444804707103378], ["2022-11-26", 0.54448047071033... | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/alexandria-ocasiocortez-yes-vs-marj | Bet YES if you prefer AOC. Bet NO if you prefer MTG. Market will close at probability. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-26 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (YES) vs. Marjorie Taylor Greene (NO) | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-24 | 2022-11-24 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-24", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-24", 0.5999999999999999], ["2022-11-24", 0.6], ["2022-11-24", 0.6], ["2022-11-24", 0.6361829996214502], ["2022-11-24", 0.6992342735745128]] | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16500-a | Will Bitcoin price be above $16,500 at Nov 23 9pm ET? | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-24 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16,500 at Nov 23 9pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-12-01 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-01", 0.5083859884483812], ["2022-12-01", 0.5597202065224869], ["2022-12-01", 0.56], ["2022-12-01", 0.5703930860454898], ["2022-12-01", 0.5710510142871718], ["2022-12-01", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-01", 0.6210770965508033], ["2022-12-01", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-01", 0.72], ["2022-12-01", 0.72], [... | https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/democrats-vs-republicans-1-day-only-7fb1bb9ebb7c | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only) | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.5196003074558031], ["2022-12-02", 0.7034049116146636], ["2022-12-02", 0.7517131790644551], ["2022-12-02", 0.7854790445621692], ["2022-12-03", 0.7125532060485691], ["2022-12-03", 0.7251241204081454], ["2022-12-03", 0.7720899967391777], ["2022-12-03", 0.776472064633393], ["2022-12-03", 0.781602751461547... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-a-team-from-the-afc-caf-or-con | This will resolve to YES if a team from the AFC, CAF or CONCACAF wins their Round of 16 match at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, thus making it to the quarterfinals. Eligible teams in the Round of 16 include USA, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Senegal and Morocco. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will a team from the AFC, CAF or CONCACAF make it to the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-12-02", 0.7036149406979578], ["2022-12-02", 0.7784678140682205], ["2022-12-02", 0.8199999999999998], ["2022-12-02", 0.8509336843653956], ["2022-12-03", 0.7953360224334625], ["2022-12-03", 0.8102755693748634], ["2022-12-03", 0.82356729717433], ["2022-12-03", 0.8299999999999998... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-additional-player-get-a-re | Only moving forward from the end of the group stages. Red card must be given between the Round of 16 and the conclusion of the world cup. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Will any additional player get a red card before the end of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.18940057498879914], ["2022-12-02", 0.3400000000000002], ["2022-12-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-02", 0.4400000000000001], ["2022-12-02", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-12-02", 0.5692437811991431], ["2022-12-02", 0.5854569004116198], ["2022-12-02", 0.635078022569322], ["2022-12-02", 0.66625215459435... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-5-or-more-goals-on-de | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The matches are: -Netherlands vs USA -Argentina vs Australia | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | Will there be 5 or more goals on Dec 3 at the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-23 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.10067175808177654], ["2022-12-02", 0.17609251147189478], ["2022-12-02", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-12-02", 0.2659351245806921], ["2022-12-02", 0.36340773341716437], ["2022-12-02", 0.5826080374385887], ["2022-12-02", 0.6473702396801133], ["2022-12-02", 0.6896442967561324], ["2022-12-02", 0.74], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/miaziaz/will-weewoo-be-banned-before-decemb | Idiots will spam WEEWOO and then strimmer man will ban it | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will WEEWOO be banned before December is over? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-02", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-02", 0.7693112321193737], ["2022-12-02", 0.7842198805112878], ["2022-12-02", 0.7976466633744778], ["2022-12-02", 0.8386188274333567], ["2022-12-02", 0.8529684887225675], ["2022-12-03", 0.797646663374478], ["2022-12-03", 0.799999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-michigan-beat-purdue-on-saturd | The game is in Indianapolis. Michigan is favored by 16.5 points. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will Michigan beat Purdue on Saturday night? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.1596639704588491], ["2022-12-02", 0.1796138950920738], ["2022-12-02", 0.2050153431625866], ["2022-12-02", 0.23584905660377367], ["2022-12-02", 0.2808988764044944], ["2022-12-02", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-12-03", 0.02000000000000003], ["2022-12-03", 0.02000000000000003], ["2022-12-03", 0.02000000000... | https://manifold.markets/MattReardon/2022-world-cup-will-croatia-reach-t-6209f9e8b6b1 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | 2022 World Cup: Will Croatia reach the semifinals? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-01 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.267292995593871], ["2022-12-02", 0.2726446531354135], ["2022-12-02", 0.28394529042321776], ["2022-12-02", 0.29000000000000004], ["2022-12-02", 0.29000000000000004], ["2022-12-02", 0.29000000000000004], ["2022-12-02", 0.30061862124326116], ["2022-12-02", 0.307258931474622], ["2022-12-02", 0.31000000000... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-twitter-unban-kanye-west-by-ma | resolves YES if | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will Twitter unban Kanye West by May 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-05 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-12-03", 0.020656775280522916], ["2022-12-03", 0.21012694095711787], ["2022-12-03", 0.23], ["2022-12-03", 0.23], ["2022-12-03", 0.23], ["2022-12-03", 0.23584905660377348], ["2022-12-09", 0.19550471459318147], ["2022-12-11", 0.1824269678098432], ["2022-12-16", 0.11792028320474... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-detroit-pistons-make-the-p | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Detroit Pistons make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Detroit Pistons qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-10 | Will the Detroit Pistons make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-09 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-03", 0.02056579972121655], ["2022-12-03", 0.32314550176335566], ["2022-12-03", 0.358943405238841], ["2022-12-03", 0.3999999999999999], ["2022-12-03", 0.3999999999999999], ["2022-12-03", 0.3999999999999999], ["2022-12-03", 0.4098360655737705], ["2022-12-09", 0.2974971699751... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-houston-rockets-make-the-p | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Houston Rockets make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Houston Rockets qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-09 | Will the Houston Rockets make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-04 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-12-03", 0.021650320387508422], ["2022-12-03", 0.18999999999999995], ["2022-12-03", 0.18999999999999995], ["2022-12-03", 0.18999999999999995], ["2022-12-03", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-12-16", 0.10058517480973128], ["2022-12-16", 0.10678074749274208], ["2022-12-16", 0.1136153... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-orlando-magic-make-the-pla | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Orlando Magic make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the Orlando Magic qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-05 | Will the Orlando Magic make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-05 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.022309277982527336], ["2022-12-03", 0.36816521904507105], ["2022-12-03", 0.42415828085303786], ["2022-12-03", 0.49], ["2022-12-03", 0.49], ["2022-12-03", 0.49], ["2022-12-03", 0.5], ["2022-12-09", 0.2994780555293323], ["2022-12-09", 0.3314360808336973], ["2022-12-16", 0.17478606613406392], ["2022-12-1... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-san-antonio-spurs-make-the-cb723f28aeb5 | This market will resolve 'YES' if the San Antonio Spurs make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season. If the San Antonio Spurs qualify for the Play-In Tournament but do not advance to the Playoffs, this market will resolve 'NO'. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-09 | Will the San Antonio Spurs make the playoffs for the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-12-02 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.502852026550968], ["2022-12-02", 0.5489922074612429], ["2022-12-02", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-02", 0.5949008744945449], ["2022-12-02", 0.6181634001408711], ["2022-12-02", 0.6243898256623603], ["2022-12-02", 0.6620526399430128], ["2022-12-02", 0.6915470320035942], ["2022-12-02", 0.740275703457281... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-16930-a | Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | Will Bitcoin price be above $16930 at Nov 2 10pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.5076814463772341], ["2022-12-02", 0.5149004766615662], ["2022-12-02", 0.5237070106953369], ["2022-12-02", 0.5344418052256531], ["2022-12-02", 0.5344418052256532], ["2022-12-02", 0.5599999999999996], ["2022-12-02", 0.56], ["2022-12-02", 0.56], ["2022-12-02", 0.5609190496438632], ["2022-12-02", 0.560919... | https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/democrats-vs-republicans-1-day-only-d8589590fc36 | YES FOR Democrats NO FOR Republicans >50.0% = Democrats WINS | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | Democrats vs Republicans (1 day only) | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-12-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-02", 0.4971346940115926], ["2022-12-02", 0.4971346940115926], ["2022-12-02", 0.4971346940115926], ["2022-12-02", 0.5354501059252746], ["2022-12-02", 0.5992112762802156], ["2022-12-02", 0.6105623761178988], ["2022-12-02", 0.639999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-b25a989256cb | At closing, market resolves to "Yes" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to "No" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Day) | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-02", 0.1000000000000001], ["2022-12-02", 0.2006201973920335], ["2022-12-02", 0.24936470999803503], ["2022-12-02", 0.2775393700223726], ["2022-12-03", 0.020654698419399497], ["2022-12-03", 0.022175305148577143], ["2022-12-03", 0.1328229239691168], ["2022-12-03", 0.15], ["2022-12-03", 0.15], ["2022-12-03", 0.1... | https://manifold.markets/Zozzy/a-mcgary-brother-will-die-next-epis-5808d4bb5de8 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | A McGary Brother Will Die Next Episode of ToS (EP90) | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-14 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.5196003074558031], ["2022-12-04", 0.6059268600252203], ["2022-12-04", 0.6632660894464448], ["2022-12-04", 0.7103928108491027], ["2022-12-04", 0.7394983044366077], ["2022-12-04", 0.7588964619817303], ["2022-12-05", 0.773851115755763], ["2022-12-07", 0.7858524333342629], ["2022-12-07", 0.796885370721014... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-chatgpt-clone-be-opensourced | Similar quality (dialogue, jokes, test scores etc.); | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will a ChatGPT clone be open-sourced by 2025? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-04", 0.544686527345487], ["2022-12-04", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-04", 0.7090969106112706], ["2022-12-05", 0.019701165750212996], ["2022-12-05", 0.02939413365723503], ["2022-12-05", 0.04], ["2022-12-05", 0.04], ["2022-12-05", 0.04], ["2022-12-05", 0.04932914537531131]... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-don-mattingly-be-elected-to-th | The ballot in addition to Mattingly consists of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Albert Belle, Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmero, Dale Murphy and Curt Shilling. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will Don Mattingly be elected to the MLB HOF by the new Contemporary Era Committee? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-14 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.25], ["2022-12-03", 0.31450666430170304], ["2022-12-03", 0.39410335052661627], ["2022-12-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-03", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-12-03", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-12-04", 0.3588862748996384], ["2022-12-04", 0.45186309476425524], ["2022-12-04", 0.48757206226580097], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-larry-hogan-seek-the-gop-nomin | Soon to be former Governor of Maryland seems to be interested in the job, though he is a long time Never Trumper so will be an uphill battle. This market resolves YES if Hogan announces and files necessary paperwork with FEC to seek the GOP nomination. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Larry Hogan seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-12-04", 0.4843788137661705], ["2022-12-05", 0.027637852514673867], ["2022-12-05", 0.036067510930363596], ["2022-12-05", 0.040359286925715006], ["2022-12-05", 0.05557443244224496], ["2022-12-05", 0.05999999999999998], ["2022-12-05", 0.05999999999999998], ["2022-12-05", 0.05999... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-rafael-palmeiro-be-elected-to | The ballot in addition to Palmeiro consists of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Curt Shilling, Dale Murphy and Fred McGriff. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will Rafael Palmeiro be elected to the MLB HOF by the new Contemporary Era Committee? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-04", 0.7191011235955054], ["2022-12-05", 0.021163267808992987], ["2022-12-05", 0.021163267808992987], ["2022-12-05", 0.021163267808992987], ["2022-12-05", 0.0288271936659145], ["2022-12-05", 0.03098463879109105], ["2022-12-05", 0.045221651625362076], ["2022-12-05", 0.05999... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-albert-belle-be-elected-to-the | The ballot in addition to Belle consists of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmero, Dale Murphy and Curt Shilling. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will Albert Belle be elected to the MLB HOF by the new Contemporary Era Committee? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-09 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.265699792399656], ["2022-12-03", 0.33781766079947145], ["2022-12-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-03", 0.46763119103420325], ["2022-12-03", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-12-04", 0.14878732846881634], ["2022-12-04", 0.16685856758038528], ["2022-12-04", 0.2189307732677464], ["2022-12-04", 0.22803939385... | https://manifold.markets/EdwardKmett/will-openai-release-a-gpt3-equivale | For Resolution: To qualify as YES for a release, either: OR B.) usage of the model should be clearly announced as licensed to a third-party (like the relationship between Github Copilot and OpenAI Codex), which in turn provides the model to users by the target date. To be clear: Edit: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-09 | Will OpenAI release a GPT>=3 equivalent language model capable of web browsing in response to user queries before March 1st, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.16055797003348804], ["2022-12-03", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-12-03", 0.2705135588462881], ["2022-12-03", 0.31321464170789454], ["2022-12-03", 0.37873218748183346], ["2022-12-04", 0.03703808407486295], ["2022-12-04", 0.04438954759030399], ["2022-12-04", 0.04592542679024665], ["2022-12-04", 0.04700393... | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-there-be-any-commercial-air-li | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will there be any commercial air line plane crashes between now and the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-03", 0.8234961875176502], ["2022-12-04", 0.45109781140110067], ["2022-12-04", 0.5237811542341964], ["2022-12-04", 0.6772138603952277], ["2022-12-04", 0.6899999999999998], ["2022-12-04", 0.7303047686628561], ["2022-12-05", 0.02024582811284449], ["2022-12-05", 0.024648427544... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-curt-shilling-be-elected-to-th | The ballot in addition to Shilling consists of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Rafael Palmero, Dale Murphy and Fred McGriff. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will Curt Shilling be elected to the MLB HOF by the new Contemporary Era Committee? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-03", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-12-03", 0.7551554176685146], ["2022-12-03", 0.77], ["2022-12-03", 0.7869288447242812], ["2022-12-03", 0.81], ["2022-12-03", 0.8412958835086826], ["2022-12-03", 0.8492691060396717], ["2022-12-03", 0.94], ["2022-12-03", 0.9643957670692594], [... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-5-or-more-goals-on-de-f7949e1e50cf | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The matches are: -France vs Poland -England vs Senegal | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will there be 5 or more goals on Dec 4 at the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-06 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.19999999999999993], ["2022-12-03", 0.19999999999999993], ["2022-12-03", 0.19999999999999993], ["2022-12-03", 0.19999999999999998], ["2022-12-03", 0.19999999999999998], ["2022-12-03", 0.19999999999999998], ["2022-12-03", 0.21], ["2022-12-03", 0.23605925806123668], ["2022-12-03", 0.29], ["2022-12-03", 0... | https://manifold.markets/algorithmovigilance/will-teslas-market-cap-fall-below-m | Tesla is basically still searching for the bottom while Meta seems to have leveled out and started slowing climbing back up. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-06 | Will Tesla's market cap fall below Meta's at any point during 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-17 | 2022-12-03 | ["https://www.speedrun.com/sm64?h=120_Star-N64&x=wkpoo02r-e8m7em86.9qj7z0oq"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.020422274199261483], ["2022-12-03", 0.3324248852141434], ["2022-12-03", 0.4098360655737702], ["2022-12-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-03", 0.40983606557377067], ["2022-12-03", 0.5737557986467238], ["2022-12-04", 0.5999999999999999], ["2022-12-04", 0.6113877020563121], ["2022-12-05", 0.62], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/GanymedeAI/will-there-be-a-new-top-10-time-for | Currently, the most recent recent time posted in the top 10 was from 14 days ago and the next most recent is from 2 months ago. This market will resolve if there is a newer entry (compared to Weegee's 1:37:35 entry) on 12/17/2022 2PM EST. The run will need be verified. If the run is not verified at the time of close, I... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-17 | Will there be a new top 10 time for SM64 120 Star on the N64 in the next 2 weeks? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-21 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.3105412296162537], ["2022-12-03", 0.3475575565291208], ["2022-12-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-04", 0.3079636557904402], ["2022-12-11", 0.2955179003659777], ["2022-12-13", 0.29311441482669665], ["2022-12-20", 0.26018048443992475], ["2022-12-20", 0.28150446573429605], ["2023-01-02", 0.25177834806... | https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-planned-electricity-shutdowns | French government asked the prefects to prepare for this "hypothetical" scenario. The shutdowns would be planned, during peak hours, with a rotation, in order to protect the grid and essential services. Affected people would be warned the day before. This plan is for metropolitan France except Corsica. It will affect ... | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-21 | Will planned electricity shutdowns occur in France this winter ? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.006027830459822705], ["2022-12-03", 0.006036437608577336], ["2022-12-03", 0.0065487874041377], ["2022-12-03", 0.006871580509030246], ["2022-12-03", 0.006926517323242458], ["2022-12-03", 0.008156200813452653], ["2022-12-03", 0.008893699306558213], ["2022-12-03", 0.011449366354461372], ["2022-12-03", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-this-market-be-botfree-in-12-h | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | Will this market be bot-free in 12 hours? This market shall resolve YES if no bots bet on it by noon Central Time on December 3, 2022. | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.02841894293460258], ["2022-12-03", 0.030419147376719954], ["2022-12-03", 0.3997610454617482], ["2022-12-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-03", 0.4099999999999999], ["2022-12-03", 0.45479657854563965], ["2022-12-03", 0.4820832212003298], ["2022-12-03", 0.48648895380682855], ["2022-12-03", 0.49], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-355fa440f3de | At closing, market resolves to "Yes" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to "No" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Day) | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-12-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.028853499961674713], ["2022-12-03", 0.031201801426897185], ["2022-12-03", 0.031201801426897185], ["2022-12-03", 0.031201801426897185], ["2022-12-03", 0.03288440294291006], ["2022-12-03", 0.06361997607002237], ["2022-12-03", 0.06814146256670678], ["2022-12-03", 0.07000000000000005], ["2022-12-03", 0.07... | https://manifold.markets/ArthurConmy/will-chatgpt-get-shut-down-by-the-e | This market will resolve to YES if | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will ChatGPT get shut down by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-16 | 2022-12-03 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/", "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum", "https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-03", 0.1806725706285394], ["2022-12-03", 0.21999999999999992], ["2022-12-03", 0.235197447516409], ["2022-12-03", 0.31664438339662193], ["2022-12-03", 0.37565364018271136], ["2022-12-03", 0.4199999999999999], ["2022-12-03", 0.43000000000000005], ["2022-12-03", 0.43881284076960175], ["2022-12-03", 0.46], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ethereums-price-be-above-1300 | Resolves on December 16th at 11:59PM EST according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko and the ETH/BUSD spot market. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/ https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_BUSD | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-16 | Will Ethereum's price be above $1300 on December 16th. | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.3976906941241797], ["2022-12-04", 0.4836109618484686], ["2022-12-04", 0.5049256009323996], ["2022-12-04", 0.5795738499040828], ["2022-12-04", 0.585092567845304], ["2022-12-04", 0.5900000000000001], ["2022-12-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-04", 0.624248823175407], ["2022-12-04", 0.6420674861337546... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-england-get-their-first-yellow | England currently has 0 yellow cards. Will a player get the team's first yellow in their upcoming match against France? | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Will England get their first yellow card in their next match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-04 | ["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-12-05", 0.39129077335118073], ["2022-12-05", 0.4199529631812494], ["2022-12-05", 0.4994534011241622], ["2022-12-05", 0.5035176295146736], ["2022-12-05", 0.54], ["2022-12-05", 0.5553113886528841], ["2022-12-05", 0.5954585676379232], ["2022-12-05", 0.598626632496985], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/GeneFama/will-bitcoin-price-be-above-17100-a | Resolution according to price shown in Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin Note that the market closes an hour after the referenced time Dec 5, 9:10pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will Bitcoin price be above $17100 at Dec 5 10pm ET? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.4821011992535395], ["2022-12-04", 0.49436724468603654], ["2022-12-04", 0.5042556015159808], ["2022-12-04", 0.5075598627594983], ["2022-12-04", 0.544539870818633], ["2022-12-04", 0.55], ["2022-12-04", 0.5838180164273458], ["2022-12-04", 0.59], ["2022-12-04", 0.59], ["2022-12-04", 0.59], ["2022-12-04", ... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-player-score-more-than-7-g | Goals counted over the course of the tournament. Goals scored from penalty shoot-outs are not counted towards an individual player's goal count. Data from: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will any player score more than 7 goals in the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.3767120838154992], ["2022-12-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-04", 0.43000000000000016], ["2022-12-04", 0.43256568377288357], ["2022-12-04", 0.46], ["2022-12-04", 0.46], ["2022-12-04", 0.46], ["2022-12-04", 0.4799999999999999], ["2022-12-04", 0.48865365257457183], ["2022-12-04", 0.5163890381515316]... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-more-than-4-goals-sco | Resolves yes if more than 4 goals are scored in the semifinals. Only match + overtime goals count, not shootout. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will there be more than 4 goals scored in the Semi-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-18 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.06317851169956212], ["2022-12-04", 0.08410428931875528], ["2022-12-04", 0.23584905660377373], ["2022-12-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-05", 0.0496461541282395], ["2022-12-05", 0.05090867818188834], ["2022-12-05", 0.05460199531884101], ["2022-12-05", 0.05625506745603188], ["2022-12-05", 0.05813943... | https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-google-acquire-twitter-for-10b | This market resolves positively if a joint press release announces Google intent to acquire Twitter, with price. The price only includes the amount paid for Twitter's equity, not any debt taken on as part of the agreement. The deal does not need to actually close (for instance, failing due to regulatory issues will not... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2024-01-01 | Will Google acquire Twitter for < $10B by EOY 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-03 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-04", 0.6721855227189522], ["2022-12-04", 0.7641509433962262], ["2022-12-05", 0.7046644811880698], ["2022-12-09", 0.6453909581721947], ["2022-12-13", 0.6274258408260829], ["2022-12-13", 0.64], ["2022-12-13", 0.6713166909606393], ["2022-12-14", 0.518885317949544], ["2022-12-... | https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-speaker-of-the-house-be-el | It's happened for every Congress since 1925, but Republicans are set to have a narrow 222-213 majority with some members claiming to oppose Kevin McCarthy, so it's in doubt. Resolves YES if there's a winner on the first ballot of voting for the 2023 Speaker of the House election, and NO otherwise. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-03 | Will the Speaker of the House be elected on the first ballot? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.545939395664508], ["2022-12-04", 0.5883013790319561], ["2022-12-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-04", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-04", 0.9845435909936087], ["2022-12-04", 0.9852024990137723], ["2022-12-04", 0.9857860072762419], ["2022-12-04", 0.9878534612705308], ["2022-12-04", 0.996577336412889... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-announcers-say-mbappe-more | From kickoff to the end, whether 90 minutes, extratime or penalties. US broadcast on FOX. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will the announcers say "Mbappe" more than 75 times during the FRA-POL match? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.4836109618484686], ["2022-12-04", 0.4836109618484686], ["2022-12-04", 0.5707884395246001], ["2022-12-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-05", 0.5379165000162894], ["2022-12-05", 0.6249564338594528], ["2022-12-05", 0.6431222298107246], ["2022-12-05", 0.6600000000000001], ["2022-12-05", 0.68078874772799... | https://manifold.markets/AnthonyPeterson/will-ai-generated-solutions-rank-wi | AI generated solutions have placed highly in the first few days of Advent of Code, including a ridiculous 10 second solution to day 3 part 1. Some speculate they won't be able to solve the more difficult later solutions. Will Day 10's top 5 finishers have any ai-generated solutions? (I'm not counting GitHub copilot use... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Will AI generated solutions rank within the top 5 of Advent of Code day 10? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-26 | 2022-12-04 | ["https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2022-11-01..latest&facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~CHN"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-04", 0.5602692376538648], ["2022-12-04", 0.6094487577382783], ["2022-12-04", 0.6178967751357521], ["2022-12-04", 0.7928768565540867], ["2022-12-04", 0.8264936988505154], ["2022-12-04", 0.8465060280431546], ["2022-12-05", 0.4521029655093816], ["2022-12-05", 0.51117249238533... | https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-china-reach-1m-daily-covid-cas | This market resolves as YES if China reports a 7-day rolling average of at least 1,000,000 covid-19 cases at any point between the opening of the market and EOD March 31, 2023. Source for settling the market will be Our World in Data at the link below. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time... | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-28 | Will China report 1M daily Covid Cases by March 31, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.4027927462754924], ["2022-12-04", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-04", 0.5882104102874612], ["2022-12-04", 0.633329375721334], ["2022-12-04", 0.64], ["2022-12-04", 0.6502783340559956], ["2022-12-04", 0.6686509468230694], ["2022-12-04", 0.7052426642700781], ["2022-12-05", 0.5441541469037966], ["2022-12-... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-sp-500-close-the-year-2022 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-30 | Will the S&P 500 close the year (2022) above 4000? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-27 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-12-04", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-12-04", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-12-04", 0.6285873319845521], ["2022-12-05", 0.5414085762017994], ["2022-12-05", 0.5596102861900587], ["2022-12-05", 0.5632810939817144], ["2022-12-05", 0.58], ["2022-12-05", 0.58], ["2022-12-05", 0.58], [... | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-sp-500-close-above-4000-at | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-09-05 | Will the S&P 500 close above 4000 at the end of 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-30 | 2022-12-04 | ["https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/04/iran-reviewing-mandatory-headscarf-law-amid-ongoing-protests"] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.2655169239991667], ["2022-12-04", 0.2678371159323598], ["2022-12-04", 0.291257435380511], ["2022-12-04", 0.3032147856407443], ["2022-12-04", 0.35048531744813355], ["2022-12-04", 0.35048531744813355], ["2022-12-04", 0.35048531744813355], ["2022-12-04", 0.36000000000000004], ["2022-12-04", 0.39162664076... | https://manifold.markets/DanForootan/will-the-current-iranian-regime-end | https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/04/iran-reviewing-mandatory-headscarf-law-amid-ongoing-protests | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will the current Iranian regime end the law that calls for for compulsorily hijab by Feb 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.5960163877272886], ["2022-12-04", 0.6], ["2022-12-04", 0.6], ["2022-12-04", 0.6], ["2022-12-04", 0.6], ["2022-12-04", 0.6016708883948372], ["2022-12-04", 0.6101883200817287], ["2022-12-04", 0.6162478977280076], ["2022-12-04", 0.6187445814307418], ["2022-12-04", 0.62], ["2022-12-04", 0.62], ["2022-12-0... | https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-portugal-eliminate-switzerland | YES = Portugal Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will Portugal eliminate Switzerland? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-04", 0.5083462981738108], ["2022-12-04", 0.5142881950438588], ["2022-12-04", 0.5152950910464806], ["2022-12-04", 0.54], ["2022-12-04", 0.5564038985079381], ["2022-12-12", 0.6300000000000001], ["2022-12-12", 0.64], ["2022-12-12", 0.64], ["2022-12-12", 0.64], ["2022-12-12", ... | https://manifold.markets/EdwardKmett/will-the-distilled-stable-diffusion | Emad Mostaque recently tweeted about the existence of two improvements to Stable Diffusion 2. Dec 3, 10:39pm: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the distilled Stable Diffusion 2 model be available online before January 1st, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.04813504629543786], ["2022-12-04", 0.04911591355599219], ["2022-12-04", 0.054719680553866695], ["2022-12-04", 0.06301174545996702], ["2022-12-04", 0.07163323782234962], ["2022-12-04", 0.07370877749887945], ["2022-12-04", 0.07529538484914912], ["2022-12-04", 0.08139657883006467], ["2022-12-04", 0.08139... | https://manifold.markets/PryingMind/will-xqc-get-the-run-tonight-under | Close date updated to 2022-12-04 12:11 am | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | Will XQC get the run tonight ( under 20:38 in game time) | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-04", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-04", 0.6675310495099614], ["2022-12-04", 0.69], ["2022-12-04", 0.6948782933619273], ["2022-12-04", 0.7180722093530543], ["2022-12-04", 0.7183136354896811], ["2022-12-04", 0.7263803845781045], ["2022-12-04", 0.7400590706404498], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/will-there-be-more-traders-who-hold-865cc2559948 | At closing, market resolves to "Yes" if there are more unique traders with Yes position. market resolves to "No" if there are more unique traders with No position. Resolves to N/A otherwise. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Day) | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-09 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.5356696644747958], ["2022-12-04", 0.55], ["2022-12-04", 0.55], ["2022-12-04", 0.55], ["2022-12-04", 0.55], ["2022-12-04", 0.55], ["2022-12-04", 0.5699448928665138], ["2022-12-04", 0.57], ["2022-12-04", 0.57], ["2022-12-04", 0.57], ["2022-12-04", 0.5887525508303185], ["2022-12-04", 0.588804509776653], ... | https://manifold.markets/EdwardKmett/will-openai-release-a-gpt3-equivale-890970b628fa | For Resolution: To qualify as YES for a release, either: OR B.) usage of the model should be clearly announced as licensed to a third-party (like the relationship between Github Copilot and OpenAI Codex), which in turn provides the model to users by the target date. To be clear: In the event the browsing capability i... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-09 | Will OpenAI release a GPT>=3 equivalent language model capable of web browsing in response to user queries before January 1st, 2024? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-12-04 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-04", 0.607685588924133], ["2022-12-04", 0.7000192911069189], ["2022-12-06", 0.7088607905620932], ["2022-12-09", 0.7270292959586616], ["2022-12-10", 0.89628224387444], ["2022-12-10", 0.91], ["2022-12-10", 0.9271854999853663], ["2022-12-10", 0.9297188070445748], ["2022-12-10... | https://manifold.markets/EdwardKmett/will-the-unstable-diffusion-kicksta | The Unstable Diffusion discord community has announced their intent to launch a Conditional on the campaign starting Resolves NO if the Kickstarter campaign fails to make its minimum funding target by the end of the campaign. That said, in the past some Kickstarters have used multiple platforms to add up the number t... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Will the Unstable Diffusion Kickstarter be successfully funded? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.29079179245489734], ["2022-12-05", 0.337837837837838], ["2022-12-05", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-06", 0.2561296270635267], ["2022-12-06", 0.33], ["2022-12-06", 0.34041832129678845], ["2022-12-06", 0.35188068714306797], ["2022-12-06", 0.3791057826762261], ["2022-12-06", 0.4], ["2022-12-06", 0.40715... | https://manifold.markets/Samuel/will-anthropic-or-deepmind-publish | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will Anthropic OR Deepmind publish their alignment plan before March 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.4836109618484686], ["2022-12-05", 0.532726185324393], ["2022-12-05", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-05", 0.6158196427369227], ["2022-12-05", 0.6668541522796004], ["2022-12-07", 0.6806846324552801], ["2022-12-09", 0.09000000000000001], ["2022-12-09", 0.10226257670874067], ["2022-12-09", 0.1101177299356... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-the-netherlands-score-against | Currently Argentina are the slight favorites for the match, but will the Netherlands still be able to score? Resolves yes if the Netherlands scores atleast 1 goal against Argentina by the end of the match. (In the unlikely case it ends 0-0 in shoot-out, it will resolve as NO) | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | Will the Netherlands score against Argentina? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.3139398316356813], ["2022-12-05", 0.33], ["2022-12-05", 0.352397951099213], ["2022-12-05", 0.37], ["2022-12-05", 0.37], ["2022-12-05", 0.37], ["2022-12-05", 0.37115874143172917], ["2022-12-05", 0.40525304018488095], ["2022-12-05", 0.4177899382396602], ["2022-12-05", 0.4199999999999999], ["2022-12-05",... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-more-than-3-goals-be-scored-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | Will more than 3 goals be scored in the France vs England game? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.03630352683883604], ["2022-12-05", 0.05000000000000004], ["2022-12-05", 0.057315752550232], ["2022-12-05", 0.07999999999999997], ["2022-12-05", 0.07999999999999997], ["2022-12-05", 0.07999999999999997], ["2022-12-05", 0.08], ["2022-12-05", 0.09628292661738383], ["2022-12-05", 0.09662980367534019], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/2022-world-cup-will-switzerland-rea-54b636880d3d | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | 2022 World Cup: Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.3694593250508399], ["2022-12-05", 0.3956260317245669], ["2022-12-05", 0.44841387488882295], ["2022-12-05", 0.4723330001529082], ["2022-12-05", 0.48104314708044565], ["2022-12-05", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-12-06", 0.49312674350284585], ["2022-12-06", 0.4964403462970975], ["2022-12-06", 0.49884316577... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-3-or-more-goals-be-scored-duri | If the score at the end of the game is 3 or more, then this market resolves as YES. Shoot-out goals do not count. Close date updated to 2022-12-18 10:44 am | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will 3 or more goals be scored during the Final game of the World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.06946567006585351], ["2022-12-05", 0.10745176179154671], ["2022-12-05", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-12-06", 0.12396873059890225], ["2022-12-06", 0.14848005787770777], ["2022-12-06", 0.14848005787770777], ["2022-12-06", 0.14848005787770777], ["2022-12-06", 0.16087660818186367], ["2022-12-06", 0.2103445... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/2022-world-cup-will-morocco-reach-t | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | 2022 World Cup: Will Morocco reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.4885031007840303], ["2022-12-05", 0.5485105760883702], ["2022-12-05", 0.56], ["2022-12-05", 0.5763402564116626], ["2022-12-05", 0.5799999999999998], ["2022-12-05", 0.5826074472550271], ["2022-12-05", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-05", 0.5959975820752964], ["2022-12-05", 0.5978055456333211], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-6-or-more-goals-on-de-fc7e6a6f402a | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The matches are: -Morocco vs Spain -Portugal vs Switzerland Dec 5, 2:38pm: Close date updated to 2022-12-06 5:59 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will there be 6 or more goals on Dec 6 at the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.10000000000000002], ["2022-12-05", 0.10921114053182489], ["2022-12-05", 0.1149342719632211], ["2022-12-05", 0.18], ["2022-12-05", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-12-05", 0.21824701397630947], ["2022-12-05", 0.22145328719723195], ["2022-12-05", 0.30327857118391055], ["2022-12-05", 0.32], ["2022-12-05", 0.3... | https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-there-be-a-fifth-covid-wave-in | source data: This market will resolve positively if the 7-day average of daily US covid cases is above 150,000 at expiry. As of Nov 26, 2022, 7-day average cases were 37k. Cases were last above 150k on Feb 14, 2022. | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a fifth Covid wave in the US? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-13 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-06", 0.08318763722087992], ["2022-12-21", 0.07378311715050559], ["2022-12-22", 0.0536076393236042], ["2022-12-22", 0.057588763720481356], ["2022-12-22", 0.06217331479217333], ["2022-12-22", 0.0675064183581322], ["2022-12-22", 0.07378311715050545], ["2022-12-23", 0.17975958858500934], ["2022-12-25", 0.1592898... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-new-orleans-pelicans-make-04c293a8d3d2 | This market will resolve 'YES' if the New Orleans Pelicans win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-13 | Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-04 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.2428422641593373], ["2022-12-05", 0.2615840182531968], ["2022-12-05", 0.26288179634354625], ["2022-12-05", 0.26999999999999996], ["2022-12-05", 0.2800000000000001], ["2022-12-05", 0.2800000000000001], ["2022-12-05", 0.2800000000000001], ["2022-12-05", 0.29615314343334315], ["2022-12-05", 0.30000000000... | https://manifold.markets/humblestumble/will-finland-join-nato-by-the-15th | Resolves YES IF Finland joins NATO before the 15th of April And NO if it doesn't. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-04 | Will Finland join NATO by the 15th of April? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-27 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-23", 0.37445596420744937], ["2022-12-25", 0.30990723498914713], ["2022-12-29", 0.18013902987250963], ["2022-12-29", 0.19783776663724234], ["2022-12-29", 0.20999999999999994], ["2022-12-29", 0.2186831776347227], ["2022-12-29", 0.22488338770674568], ["2022-12-29", 0.24350026915074377], ["2022-12-29", 0.2445410... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-milwaukee-bucks-make-the-f | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Milwaukee Bucks win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-27 | Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-24 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-19", 0.09952380373649722], ["2022-12-22", 0.1108317109861108], ["2022-12-22", 0.1108317109861108], ["2022-12-22", 0.1108317109861108], ["2022-12-23", 0.1212627966132402], ["2022-12-23", 0.134302125297231], ["2022-12-28", 0.17918869858859823], ["2022-12-29", 0.19108304108427263], ["2023-01-02", 0.182162653643... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-denver-nuggets-make-the-fi | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Denver Nuggets win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-24 | Will the Denver Nuggets make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-15 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-06", 0.10807816649135486], ["2022-12-06", 0.1299999999999999], ["2022-12-22", 0.11360419796070587], ["2022-12-28", 0.1651994888578845], ["2023-01-03", 0.18402971679096458], ["2023-01-05", 0.18402971679096455], ["2023-01-05", 0.20999999999999994], ["2023-01-05", 0.20999999999999994], ["2023-01-05", 0.20999999... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-philadelphia-76ers-make-th-18d4fb9b103a | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Philadelphia 76ers win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-15 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-14 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-06", 0.10807816649135486], ["2022-12-06", 0.1299999999999999], ["2022-12-16", 0.11360419796070569], ["2022-12-23", 0.10307293417457866], ["2022-12-29", 0.1923996319141022], ["2023-01-02", 0.17394522257087017], ["2023-01-05", 0.10726844714565403], ["2023-01-05", 0.1399999999999999], ["2023-01-08", 0.129506585... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-golden-state-warriors-make-801f5f4f74e0 | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Golden State Warriors win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will the Golden State Warriors make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-30 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-06", 0.058264359108705414], ["2022-12-18", 0.05826435910870493], ["2022-12-18", 0.07598618537388704], ["2022-12-18", 0.8627486642413486], ["2022-12-18", 0.9986056401306291], ["2022-12-21", 0.05291779866070417], ["2023-01-03", 0.06955281875585557], ["2023-01-05", 0.06000000000000007], ["2023-01-18", 0.0640711... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-miami-heat-make-the-finals | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Miami Heat win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-30 | Will the Miami Heat make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.003958572859347716], ["2022-12-05", 0.004466148531810528], ["2022-12-05", 0.004466148531810528], ["2022-12-05", 0.004466148531810528], ["2022-12-05", 0.05832571050191777], ["2022-12-05", 0.07217091484917396], ["2022-12-05", 0.08999999999999993], ["2022-12-05", 0.08999999999999993], ["2022-12-05", 0.08... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-brazil-shut-out-south-korea | Currently Brazil are the heavy favorites for the match, but will South Korea atleast be able to score, or will they end the game with 0 goals? Resolves yes if South Korea scores 0 goals by the end of the match. (In the unlikely case it ends 0-0 in shoot-out, it will resolve yes if Brazil wins) Close date updated to 202... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will Brazil shut out South Korea? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-14 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.27273194176727666], ["2022-12-05", 0.29005444063825514], ["2022-12-15", 0.14436540915098134], ["2022-12-15", 0.25712910573896564], ["2022-12-25", 0.1343661687920037], ["2022-12-31", 0.11755101456294044], ["2022-12-31", 0.12548346907505378], ["2023-01-05", 0.08999999999999996], ["2023-01-08", 0.0860501... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-phoenix-suns-make-the-fina | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Phoenix Suns win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will the Phoenix Suns make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-29 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-10", 0.3113277784797165], ["2022-12-11", 0.1805570470684107], ["2022-12-22", 0.18055704706841078], ["2022-12-22", 0.2630898940680102], ["2022-12-25", 0.21375312639232336], ["2022-12-25", 0.28699533700214475], ["2022-12-28", 0.256259578220693], ["2023-01-02", 0.2799999999999999], ["2023-01-16", 0.334653573738... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-memphis-grizzlies-make-the-1c91bffe4a31 | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Memphis Grizzlies win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-29 | Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.17479385284169244], ["2022-12-05", 0.2125898650069176], ["2022-12-05", 0.225581350297761], ["2022-12-05", 0.23148627949307776], ["2022-12-05", 0.26], ["2022-12-05", 0.26], ["2022-12-05", 0.27034808435913976], ["2022-12-05", 0.27939998030328916], ["2022-12-05", 0.2845682091121603], ["2022-12-05", 0.312... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-6-or-more-goals-on-de | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score The matches are: -Japan vs Croatia -Brazil vs South Korea | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | Will there be 6 or more goals on Dec 5 at the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-11 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-05", 0.7191011235955054], ["2022-12-05", 0.7601769729411347], ["2022-12-05", 0.7679343550606551], ["2022-12-05", 0.8008883477870865], ["2022-12-05", 0.8249647673430098], ["2022-12-05", 0.8349329298032827], ["2022-12-05", 0.8426259845025335], ["2022-12-06", 0.79372440358117... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-dec-10 | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Dec 4, 2022 9:10pm ET Close date updated to 2022-12-10 11:59 pm | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-11 | Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 10, 2022 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-05", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-05", 0.4881153226810425], ["2022-12-05", 0.5422678240035798], ["2022-12-05", 0.5905215514806759], ["2022-12-05", 0.6234585566283578], ["2022-12-05", 0.63], ["2022-12-05", 0.6372059980208714], ["2022-12-06", 0.1789195389309311], ["2022-12-06", 0.19], ["2022-12-06", 0.196131... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-a-tweet-before-dec-6 | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Dec 4, 2022 9:10pm ET Close date updated to 2022-12-06 11:59 pm | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | Will SBF make a tweet before Dec 6, 2022 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-30 | 2022-12-05 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-30", 0.4800000000000003], ["2023-04-30", 0.5303338567203241], ["2023-04-30", 0.6018873546771808], ["2023-05-01", 0.29612048522776524], ["2023-05-01", 0.35000000000000003], ["2023-05-01", 0.3831568698705173], ["2023-05-01", 0.4899999999999999], ["2023-05-01", 0.4899999999999999], ["2023-05-01", 0.490000000000... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-boston-celtics-make-the-fi | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Boston Celtics win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-30 | Will the Boston Celtics make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-06", 0.3904236598914727], ["2022-12-06", 0.4435770049680625], ["2022-12-06", 0.4481773416525489], ["2022-12-06", 0.44817734165254947], ["2022-12-06", 0.4689814850461062], ["2022-12-06", 0.4689814850461062], ["2022-12-06", 0.4689814850461062], ["2022-12-06", 0.47582817424739404], ["2022-12-06", 0.48], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-any-match-have-more-than-5-goa | Resolves YES if any entire match (meaning both teams combine) is more than 5 goals. Resolves NO if not. Shoot-out goals do not count Close date updated to 2022-12-06 2:45 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will any match have more than 5 goals in total during the World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-12-06 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-06", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-06", 0.40983606557377067], ["2022-12-06", 0.41307639384787787], ["2022-12-06", 0.4284842091409032], ["2022-12-06", 0.4338110824247283], ["2022-12-06", 0.43414010802450254], ["2022-12-06", 0.434567942433543], ["2022-12-06", 0.4460710783910198], ["2022-12-06", 0.453276586786... | https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-another-team-score-4-goals-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | Will another team score 4 goals in one match during the world cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-12-14", 0.7999999999999999], ["2022-12-14", 0.8287671232876714], ["2022-12-14", 0.8348471760402386], ["2022-12-14", 0.8500000000000001], ["2022-12-14", 0.8520710059171598], ["2022-12-14", 0.865666950120164], ["2022-12-14", 0.8714319526149779], ["2022-12-14", 0.875641399279042... | https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/during-the-fox-broadcast-of-the-fin | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | During the FOX broadcast of the Final, will an announcer use the phrase "Messi and Argentina" where just "Argentina" would have sufficed? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.22520133204112966], ["2022-12-13", 0.2516719824541148], ["2022-12-13", 0.28726850491530076], ["2022-12-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-13", 0.41999999999999993], ["2022-12-14", 0.12029016087183951], ["2022-12-14", 0.12294789537218292], ["2022-12-14", 0.16056791478602458], ["2022-12-14", 0.16862610... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-argentina-score-zero-goal-at-t | Resolve to Yes if Argentina scored zero goal at the World Cup Final. Goals scored from penalty shoot-outs do not count. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Argentina score zero goal at the World Cup Final? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-14", 0.5234934099291872], ["2022-12-14", 0.5549548049956156], ["2022-12-14", 0.57], ["2022-12-14", 0.57], ["2022-12-14", 0.57], ["2022-12-14", 0.5882021804335358], ["2022-12-14", 0.5896210995647524], ["2022-12-14", 0.6647437249991455], ["2022-12-14", 0.6652422572427442], [... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-argentina-score-two-or-more-go | Resolve to Yes if Argentina scored two or more goal at the World Cup Final. Goals scored from penalty shoot-outs do not count. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Argentina score two or more goal at the World Cup Final? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.7400000000000001], ["2022-12-13", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-12-14", 0.6968255117763315], ["2022-12-14", 0.7246377473687255], ["2022-12-14", 0.7442333001969261], ["2022-12-14", 0.7442333001969261], ["2022-12-14", 0.7442333001969261], ["2022-12-14", 0.7503503207386206], ["2022-12-14", 0.77], ["2022-12... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-argentina-score-one-or-more-go | Resolve to Yes if Argentina scored one or more goal at the World Cup Final. Goals scored from penalty shoot-outs do not count. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Argentina score one or more goal at the World Cup Final? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5500000000000003], ["2022-12-13", 0.5699999999999998], ["2022-12-13", 0.5699999999999998], ["2022-12-13", 0.5699999999999998], ["2022-12-13", 0.5699999999999998], ["2022-12-13", 0.5699999999999998], ["2022-12-13", 0.57], ["2022-12-13", 0.57], ["2022-12-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-12-13", 0.595048... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-argentina-win-the-fifa-world-c-7e9b8a1c8f2f | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will Argentina win the FIFA World Cup 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-13 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-12-13", 0.5107005167251798], ["2022-12-13", 0.5107005167251798], ["2022-12-13", 0.5705103600253386], ["2022-12-13", 0.6063994494677436], ["2022-12-13", 0.6408602163956062], ["2022-12-13", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-12-13", 0.7316271046718438], ["2022-12-13", 0.7829131252266535], ["2022-12-13", 0.8], ["2022-12-... | https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-us-yearonyear-inflation-be-5-f | source data: Dec 2023 data will come out in Jan 2024 but this market will halt at the end of 2023. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-13 | Will US year-on-year inflation be <= 5% for any month in 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-14 | 2022-12-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-10", 0.6], ["2023-03-10", 0.607438530386848], ["2023-03-10", 0.6223808147470795], ["2023-03-10", 0.6243057328301707], ["2023-03-10", 0.6263593457288519], ["2023-03-10", 0.6263593457288519], ["2023-03-10", 0.6275912838233634], ["2023-03-10", 0.6286647829665118], ["2023-03-10", 0.6286647829665118], ["2023-03-1... | https://manifold.markets/elibutchad/will-gpt4-be-released-before-march | Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts. Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count. Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count. Dec 14, 5:46pm: Feb 4, 12:50pm: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
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